welcome back to the floor of the new york stock exchange. it is staggering to think 12 months ago we closed down on the dow jones industrial average 778 points. boy, have we come an awfully long way in 12 months. can we talk about dow 10,000? dare we? as we close out on the third quarter? that has a lot to do with the fed and whether we maintain big injection of liquidity. for today's trade quite well, up 40 points and we learned consumers confidence in america ticked down worst than people expected. good news on the home price front but it hasn't fed through

yet and the market got nervous. what is the state of the consumer without injections by the fed? we will get results from nike and the restaurant play darden. this is "closing bell" on cnbc. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. here is what we are following, stocks tumbling at a mixed batch of economic data as we come to the end of the third quarter. september's consumers confidence index posts a decline.

the senate finance committee voting against an amendment that would make a public plan part of health care reform. the dow jones industrial average near the lows of the day, down 46 points, .5%, 9742, s&p 500 up two and a half points at 1,060, nasdaq down 6.70%. big tech names under proir, 2124 for nasdaq. hey, bob. >> we moved briefly in the middle of the day. the senate finance committee rejecting the plan for the public option. >> this is an important development. >> the baucus plan is essentially the main plan. here is the important thing. let's look where we stand on this. we are getting some end game here. as that came across the tape, we

saw health care stocks move up. senator baucus will doesn't include the public component. he indicated he will try to push that through as soon as possible perhaps by the end of the week. here is the important thing. look at united health. here is a big one, large health insurer, they have the blue cross, blue shield plans. popping up as that was announced and falling back down. it is good news in theory, but the problem is we don't know what the final form will look like and whether hmos will have burdensome taxes or other obligations. this is good news in the short term, the intermediate plan is sell or don't buy at this point. united health and well-point weaken. medco hasn't been doing as bad because they are not perceived

to be as impacted. if you are involving in restructuring your company, cost cuts, you will do well. walgreen's better than expected. they helped the pharmacy group move. same with gannett. you know what a disaster the newspaper businesses have been, they have great earnings and driven by lower newsprint costs. big newspaper companies moved to the upside. the important thing is we are looking at a new high. who would have thought that. when you look at what they had to say about the advertising business, they said business is not particularly good. we are getting results driven by cost cutting. >> real changes. it is amazing. take a look at the other business headlines. the consumer confidence index unexpectedly following to 53.1 because consumers are worried about the tough labor market. economists were looking for a small increase.

the case shiller home price index shows home prices increased for the third month in a row. down 13% year of year. we will look at how much of an impact the first-time home buyers credit. 51% of ceos expect their company sales to increase in the next six months. 40% believe they have to cut jobs in that time span and 49% said they expect to lower capital spending numbers. we drill down on market action with larry cantor with barclay's capital and paul mccully. gentlemen, welcome. >> thank you. >> paul, how worried are you about the federal reserve so-called exit strategy? you are hearing people talk

about the federal reserve winding down. what do you make of it? >> i don't worry about that scenario. what the fed is doing is appropriate, articulating the how of the exit strategy. they are not talking about the when of the exit strategy. the fed is going to be on hold for literally an extended period of time through 2010. so while the fed is talking a lot about the architecture of the exit strategy i'm not worried about that architecture being implemented any time soon. >> larry, what do you think? are you worried and how are you investing in this environment? >> yeah. i think it is a ways away before we have to worry about the fed hiking rates. i wouldn't necessarily say throughout next year but now through the end of this year and the first half of next year it is unlikely. in terms of inforvesting, that why we like u.s. equities.

think about where we were before things fell apart the s&p was over 1200. we didn't have interest rates this low, the rest of the world wasn't looking as good as it looks today. given the fed staying with zero rates, the money we've got in money market funds and low-risk assets like treasuries which aren't paying anything, there is room for upside with u.s. equities. >> paul, do you agree with that? >> in the short run larry is right there is no fear of the fed whatsoever. we are having an economic recovery in the second half of this year. the key issue will be whether or not we have a handoff from a policy induced recovery to a recovery that is self-feeding through job creation in 2010. i don't think the fed is going to tighten until the unemployment rate is coming down and the issue is whether or not we get it coming down. in the short run, the market is not afraid of the fed.

and logically so. they are leaving out there another day debating what happens when we get on the other side of the policy-induced recovery. >> is that the second half of the year 2010 story, getting the unemployment down and job creation? >> yeah. that is when it becomes a critically important issue. right now equities can ride on a sea of liquidity but ultimately you have to have economic recovery worthy of the name to generate consumer spending, job creation and income to make it self-sustaining. at that juncture your maximum risk point comes. >> amazing, tomorrow is the end of the third quarter. what are you looking for for the fourth quarter? >> the one place i disagree. i think we are in the midst of a solid recovery now and the unemployment rate falling this year. that is what i see the risk, people moving forward the

expectation. the fourth quarter is going to be as strong as the third quarter. 3.5%, 4%. higher in the fourth quarter. it's true. we need the labor market to improve and consumers to improve. that should come on strong gdp. >> what about treasury and other asset classes. >> if you are still asking me, treasuries here, when you see a ten-year note, 3.3%, that is not a recovery kind of treasury yield. i don't want to be buying treasuries at that yield or two-year notes at 1%. i don't think risks-free assets are paying. equities are the place to be. credit spreads are further but with the risk of higher trades you want to hedge toward equi equities than credit. >> paul, tell me what you are looking at and what your asset

class is looking like? >> on the treasury side we have moved quite a distance in a quite short period of time down from 4% to 3.25% on the ten-year. we have wrung a great deal of value out there. we have run a great deal of value out of the cooperate market. it is not terribly appetizing when i look at what is going on right now. i would point out in rejoinder to larry, he thinks we are in a strong recovery and the fed will be tightened sooner rather than later, that will be the death nail for equities. you don't want a strong recovery because you want the fed tightening long in the future if you are long in equities. >> i agree. >> thank you very much. up next the third quarter coming to a close tomorrow. we will discuss where the markets will head in the fourth quarter. what might we expect year end?

which sectors might lead the way? home prices up for a third month in a row. can it be sustained with the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit ending?

welcome back. the other stories we are following on the "closing bell" ticker. boeing agreeing to four 777 jet tosca tar airways in a deal for $700 million. the aerospace giant winning a pair of pentagon contracts worth $25 million. that to provide maintenance and engineering services to the navy. boeing shares finished up nearly 3%. polo was upgraded from a buy to a neutral. the growth prospects in southeast asia are improving. the company is expected to increase the share of accessory market. up 4.25%.

broad com was upgrades from overweight to equal weight by barclay's because of improving sales of pcs and smart phones. home pricing increasing for a third month in a row. how much is that due to the first-time home buyer tax credit which expires in november. >> probably quite a bit. the tax credit brought in an additional 350,000 new home buyers who would not have purchased without it and gave them $8,000 more in purchasing power. take a look. you see prices year over year 13% in the top ten and top 20 markets. we saw 20% annual drops last winter. prices are back to where they were in the fall of 2003.

the full compo down 33% from the peak of the housing boom. the month to month increase that some builders are jumping on the price bandwagon. prices rise in the spring and summer and fall in the fall and winter regardless. >> we are seeing a bottom but a fragile bottom. the year over year numbers are what to look at. we are down on a year over year basis and will continue to be down as we move into 2010. i worry about cyclical losses of 20% down home buyers with 10% unemployment. >> will the tax credit get expanded? several bills on the hill are looking to do that. without it prices could turn in the opposite direction.

we just got the news out of nike. breaking news right now. we are going to get more direction on the nike. nike reporting $1.04. the estimate called for 97 cents a share. $1.04, revenue. alex, $4.9 billion in revenue is the estimate. we are waiting for the revenue number. $4.8 billion is the number out of nike. estimates called for $4.9 billion. earnings on 97 cents but company reported actual shares at $1.04. you are talking about $4.8 billion versus an estimate of $4.9 billion. this immediate reaction as these numbers are coming out. we are waiting on darden

restaurants we will have momentarily. nike is trading actively and it is up in the extended hours on these numbers. let's get to matt nesto. he is reading the report and has more information on the nike story. matt, you've got real trading action in tex tended hours. >> the stock was up 1.8%. if you see 3% move we added 1% on top of the gains we saw today. this is a member of the consumer durable and apparel index, the biggest by a wide margin and a stock that is up 16% this quarter. it is a big beat. $1.04 per share that is positive from a year ago. it was $1.03 a year ago. it snaps three consecutive quarterly losses or contractions in terms of eps. the positive numbers at $1.04

versus 97 cent per share estimate. 2.5% move coming in the regular trading session, there was a huge wide margin in terms of the range of estimates. they were as low as 82 cents and as high as $1.16. some analysts out there will be disappointed with this number or a little bit less pleased if you will. but you can see the stock is gaining ground as i speak here. worth noting is the north american futures orders down 4%. western europe down 8%. central and eastern europe down big and emerging markets up 10%. nike up 3% and climbing. >> thanks very much, matt nesto. more breaking news. toyota, phil, what do you know? >> we are listening to a toyota conference call. the company announcing a warning that impacts 3.8 million

vehicles. toyota telling the owners of 3.8 million vehicles to pull out the drivers mat because the accelerator can be stuck open. according to ray lahood this is an urgent matter. '07 through '10 camries, avalons, prius, '05 tacomas, '07 to '10 lexus is 250. 3.8 million toyota vehicles impacted by this warning. more coming in the days to come. >> really important news. phil lebeau. for more on the housing market jack mccabe, christopher mayer, gentlemen, good to have

you on the program. >> just reporting on the three straight months of home price increases. is that an indication of a housing turn around, jack? >> well, it is one of those green shoots that we keep looking for. it is a positive sign. then again, when you look at the course of what has happened in the marketplace in the last eight years, i took a look and went back eight years. five of the 20 markets are at lower prices than at the end of 2001. two others were unchanged. if you go back to the height of the market at the end of 2006, prices are down in all 20 of these markets. some as much as 5% in las vegas. while we are seeing positive indications and a lot of this has to do with a lot of sales made in the summer prior to people getting their kids into

school and bigger houses that pushed the prices up. that has an effect on the market. when you look overall, we have a long ways to go. >> christopher, how would you characterize the market? >> i would agree with jack that, you know, this is good news but i wouldn't characterize -- certainy hovnanian's comments, get in while the getting is good, if you are in a pos to buy with money down they are good prices. i don't see any indication that we are going to see a "v" here. there is some risk in the fall and winter with the expiration of the tax credit, unemployment rising, it could turn the other direction. >> a lot of people are concerned we are going to see foreclosures rise again. is that a potential land mine that could derail a recovery? >> i think rising foreclosures is one of several potential land mines. we still have a lot of people who aren't paying their

mortgages. we have unemployment which is a big risk. frankly, the feds ending their purchase of mortgage-backed securities runs the risk we don't have a very deep mort gak-backed securities market. we could see mortgage rates take a big bump up without inflation. >> what do you think about that jack and the situation in commercial real estate something people are talking about as well. >> well, down here in the state of florida, maria, 23% of homeowners, 23% are either in foreclosure or default. we have other states that are running the same high. double digit amount of people in foreclosure or default to portend more foreclosures. yes. we have a huge wave of foreclosures coming up. that is the fuel of the inventory pipeline. it will keep putting downward pricing pressure on different

markets. we are seeing good news. sales are up. marginal or fractional increases in values in certain areas, i think it is far too soon and i think we have a big wave of foreclosures that is going to negatively affect many markets around the u.s. >> great conversation. we appreciate your insight. see you soon. the battle over health care continues as the debate over the public option heats up again. what lawmakers are saying. the latest point of contention on "closing bell." do stay with us.

well, the battle over creating a public health care option is heating up in the senate. this time pit democrats against democrats. a key committee voted against two amendments that would have made a public option part of health care reform. john harwood in washington with the details. john. >> the senate finance committee became the venue and the first venue in the senate. this has been fought out in the house and the public option won. the first time the senate debated it. jay rockefeller, the liberal democrat offering his amendment to add a public option saying something as sensitive as health

care the private insurance market simply isn't working. >> we need this option because our insurance companies have failed to meet their obligations in this whole matter of how do you unroll health care reform. the insurance companies, in my judgment, are determined to protect their profits and put their customers second. >> now, much of the five hours of debate that followed that statement was the classic republican/democrat argument, republicans talking about the private sector and the strengths of the private sector. democrats talking about government. democrats have the votes now. the reason that amendment went down is senator rockefeller ran into key resistance by conservatives in his own party. >> the question is how do you most effectively provide competition? i favor an alternative i would call the public interest option that would be strong

not-for-profit competition to the for-profit companies. but not one that is run by a government agency. >> now, for now, senator conrad as his co-op idea has the upper hand. a related amendment to rockefeller's by chuck schumer is going to be defeated in the finance committee. the question now is what is in the final bill that goes to the floor. watch for olympia snowe the republican who democrats want to get onboard for her amendment for a public option that would kick in after insurance companies fail to meet some tests specified in the bill. >> john harwood with the latest. the federal reserve proposing tough new credit card rules. we'll tell you about it when we come back. stay with us.

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welcome back. we have numbers out of darden

restaurants. 67 cents a share. revenue 1.7 billion. right in line as well. the estimate was $1.78 billion. matt nesto is looking at the report with the number 67 cents looks better than expected. matt, what do you have? >> you got the eps and sales right on. the blended same store sales down 5.3% is twice as bad as expected. 2.6 was baked into the stock. you are down about 4%. the shares were little changed in the regular session here today an up 10% on a month to day basis. darden has been dead money for the past couple of months. it has been trending sideways. 67 cents is a six-cent

improvement, the revenue figure at $1.7 billion is essentially flat as well from a year ago, 1.685. there is the darden story. down 4%. the federal reserve unveiled proposed changes for credit card agreements that will take effect in late february 2010. the debate centers on how it will impact consumers and card issuers. craig moore and allen levin are here. limits interest rate increases, marting to those under 21 and getting consumer consent before implementing fees. good idea? >> i think it is a great idea. transparency and fairness and greater participation by cons e consumers is important and not penalizing consumers because of economic environmental issues is

an important step. craig, do you agree with that? >> not penalizing consumers because of economic issues. should the banks be penalized because the economy is having trouble? i don't know the answer to that but you have to look at it from both sides. i know was have a populist congress which is going to blow which ever way the consumer pushes them. the banks need to price properly for the risk they are taking. >> maybe. what about the hidden fees and fees going up. there is a reason why we are talking about a whole new agency here. >> maria, i don't disagree with a lo lot of fees being egregious, overlimit fees and double cycle billing is egregious. i'm talking about restrictions on repricing as a consumer's credit quality deteriorates. that will limit the bank's willingness to lend to the

subprime sector and what the government might be achieving is a reduction of available credit to the lower credit quality portion of the economy. and perhaps that's what they are looking to do to avoid the possible repeat of the bubble we just had. >> this is a good point. go ahead, adam. >> we have been living through this for the last couple of years. we have gone through a period of irresponsible lending, borrowing and spending. but the fact is we had many, many consumers who were on track, on budget, paying more than the minimum payment with a goal in mind of doing the right thing and all of a sudden they find their minimum payment increased which may not be a bad thing, but more importantly they were facing 10%, 15% increases in their interest rates and they hadn't done anything wrong. >> are there unintended consequences here? that is the point that craig is trying to make.

the bank not able to price for risk and cutting all people getting access. >> the government mandated the increase in minimum payment. the government was partially responsible. >> i have no problem with the increase in minimum payment. i have a problem combining that with an uncalled for 10% to 15% increase in fees, i'm talking about universal default sch is unfair, one problem in one small area of your credit and every interest jumping to the penalty rate. >> in the fine bryant. >> there is a responsibility for consumers. it doesn't matter how big, bold bright or better positioned fine bryant is if you don't read it. we bear a responsibility. congress has started to do the right thing for consumers. business has to be more responsible and consumers have to be responsible with the way they conduct themselves as well.

>> i don't disagree with a lot of the points adam is making. >> but, craig, once in place do the new rules take away a consumer's ability to claim they have been treated unfairly? >> i think consumers have to become -- once these rules are in place -- >> they have to take responsibility. >> it all falls on the consumer to read what they are signing. at the end of the day, what is going in place is to bail out consumers who didn't read their contract. >> yep. that is a good point. >> when i was head of consumer affairs in new jersey we tried to come down hard for the rights for full disclosure and consumer responsibility. one thing consumers have to remember is it doesn't matter how much regulation there is or how much enforcement, the ultimate guardian of the consumer is the consumer. no one has the interest of protectioning of our financial security than each of us. >> i'm worried about this new

agency being more bureaucracy. we have a structure in place. because some officials dropped the ball doesn't mean we need more layers of government and oversight. >> i don't disagree with that. i was a regulator so we have to be very careful in what we do. have a heavy responsibility to the public to do the right thing and be careful with the agencies we put in place in order to protect the public. overprotection isn't healthy either. >> so what is the answer then? >> right now -- >> go ahead, adam. >> i think the answer here is first of all we have to move forward carefully and cautiously, get the new laws in place, the regulations in place and take a look and soo how everybody is duconducting themselves. we have been living through the wild west through the financial services industry. there is oftentimes a knee jerk reaction to add more bureaucracy.

we need to go slowly on the consumer protection agency. >> adam? >> craig. >> i'm sorry. craig. my apologies. >> i agree with adam. this is a knee-jerk reaction. in the grand scheme the credit card business is relatively new business in terms of its current size. at the same time, you basically have politicians now who are concerned that they might not have the votes to get re-elected so they are going to play to their constituents. a prime example is chris dodd who is once again pushing interchange legislation, which is basically just designed to throw a bone to the merchant lobby who is really his only supporter these days. >> politics getting involved in policy and doing the right thing. >> shocking. >> gentlemen, thank you. the fourth quarter just

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well, amazingly enough third quarter wraps up tomorrow. the s&p 500 up more than 50%

since its march low. the question is whether that run continues through the fourth quarter and end of the year. joining me now, pete sarantino, harry clark. it is wonderful to have you on the program. welcome back. >> thank you, maria. how are you? >> i'm great. >> fourth quarter is almost here. both of you fairly optimistic. what will be the themes, pete? >> i think we go from a liquidities driven market to earnings driven market. i think we hit a pothole. these transitions are never smooth. we have begun to see emerging markets roll over china. so i think it would be naive to think we get through this unscathed. i think the damage is limited. >> i think we do better. i agree with pete. currencies and commodities are out of favor now as are bonds. stocks are where to be. we are getting close to the point of a correction here,

nothing to be worried about. 6%, 8% will contain it. nothing will happen until october. october is a decent month if september is strong, which it has been. so october should be okay. look for a correction late in october. i look for the market higher first, maybe 1120, halfway back from overall decline in '07. market breadth is almost back to the high of '07 while the s&p is not quite halfway back yet. the market i think is going to stay very strong and has done nothing wrong. >> how do i avoid losing money in the fourth quarter? what is the strategy? >> if you have any cash, hold some cash back for a correction which we have to have. the market has gone from 20% below average to 20 above it. in the past six months, only three times '32, '38, '75, the market credited 12%.

a correction is going to come. i would like to see cash available to buy-in that correction. great buys through that rally. >> i think i'm more selective. i don't think we are getting a rising tide. the stories will be powerful. industrials, some technology names. the danger in this market is taking a broad brush. i don't think sweeping general alties are going to work. the stories will be selective. you have to do a lot of work to find them. even within downtrodden sectors there are winners, even in consumer stocks. if you avoided high-ticket plays and played to the consumer on a budget you made a lot of money. >> there is a lot of money on the sidelines. let's be selective. what are the groups i need to be in? >> for our stocks, we think it is smaller industrial names.

smaller names in energy that didn't rally as hard. refiners, if the economy is going to recover. refiners will make a dollar for the first time in a while. in tech it is going to be efficiency, safety and won't be so mmp on hardware. the hardware cycle is off even though the new windows release, a couple of years before it plays in the major commercial market. it is tight and going to shift in size because the big companies are the ones hit with the regulation when health care cap-and-trade financial overhaul all hits. it is easier to go after the bigger companies. the little guys fly under the radar. >> the little guys can't get access to credit. >> don't look for leverage plays. >> i would add to the items pete mentioned. ets, steel and coal. they are doing well.

there is a broad play there. more than that, we had a lot of cost cutting to show the company gains the last couple of quarters. that is done. they have to increase their top line to the bottom line and make money. watch out for stocks with good improving earnings throughout the range. small and mid-cap stocks is where it is going to be. >> what are the things that could derail a positive scenario, je snen i'm going into 2010, the federal reserve's exit strategy to commercial real estate upset to a consumer that keeps hoarding cash and isn't spending any money. what are the red flags you're watching? pete. >> the employment situation. if you go to the bls website, unemployment is perilously close to 11%. you get to a tipping point where it begins to effect psychology

and business owners respect that and rein in their spending and you get into a vicious circle. that is our fear, that we don't see the unemployment situation leveling out here. that cycle starts to feed on itself again next year. >> harry, real quick on the red flags. >> commercial real estate could be a problem come january and february. unemployment will keep going up on average seven mont after the recession is declared over. unemployment is a big problem. >> gentlemen, great conversation. we appreciate it. technology, a major driver of the market since early march, tech has been dragging in the last two months. matt nesto says it doesn't mean the tech rally has been busted. that's next. ♪

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welcome back. we have a 7.9 earthquake in

somoa. our reporter is in singapore with the latest. >> as you said, details are quite sketchy at the moment. this is around 8.0 magnitude earthquake off the samoa islands. it did generate a tsunami with waves around five feet high. that pacific tsunami warning was for overall 20 island nations in the pacific. what we do know at this stage, there have been fatalities in western samoa. the police saying people have been killed by the tsunami, but we don't know exactly how many. we'll bring you the details when we do get them. at this point, it's still very unclear how many fatalities there have been exactly. what i want to do is put this latest tsunami into context for you. this quake, as i said, measured 8.0, which is strong. it is below the 9.1, around 9.3

magnitude tsunami we saw, earthquake that triggered a violent tsunami in 2004 in the indian ocean. that killed hundreds of thousands of people with waves up to 30 meters high. i guess the main risk right now is what happens in new zealand. over there the tv is reporting this latest tsunami could hit the eastern cape at around 9:44 a.m. local time. that is roughly with waves about one meter high, according to the civil defense minister speaking on television. we know the at this stage the emergency services have been put on alert and they are on stand by in the coastal and low-lying areas. that's what we know so far. jack back to you. >> thanks so much.

full things can pull the enthusiasm in stocks. matt nesto, you think tech has legs? >> it does. take a look at the technology sector here today. it's pretty much tech and energy that spoiled our rally. technology was the worst-performing sector today, down 0.7%. this is also the biggest weighted sector in the s&p 500. about 18.5% of the total market value. if you take a look at the trio, the trouble, as i call it, to go with the french thing, look at the 1.5% decline of the semis versus hardware and services which were in line, almost outperforming the software versus the broader market. this has been a semiconductor problem and continues to be. especially if you look back on a month-to-date basis. these industry groups, semiconductors, the worst

performing industry group for the month of september. how the can it be? this is a flagship, this is not a defensive sector. this is an outright sell-off or outright -- investors are not interested in semiconductors. the broader technology sector, 2/3 of it is working. even within semi there are standouts over the month. advanced micro, amd up 33% for september. micron, kla-tencor and teradyne all up more than 10% for the month. semis collectively, the place to avoid for september. back to you. >> you remember the french thing. >> i did. we have italian, bring it all. >> thank you. let's go to the nasdaq market site with melissa lee. >> got a lot of after-hour movers. nike, darden. we've got your trade. also with a push to move medical records to electronic format,

we've got a first-time cbs with the allscripts ceo. today is tuesday after big merger monday. we'll have the name on every options traders finger when it comes to the takeout target. >> just ahead, what could move markets tomorrow. what will happen when that opening bell sounds?