here's what to watch for tomorrow. >> reporter: i'm steve liesman at cnbc global headquarters where tomorrow watching for the 8:30 jobs report. look for a decline of 175,000 jobs in the months of september after a decline of 216,000 in august. economists see the unemployment rate ticking up to 9.8% from 9.7%. you can look for temporary workers and those working part-time economic reasons for what key the market's going in. >> reporter: rick santelli on the floor. tune in tomorrow. hey, we've had a four-month run of positive factory order. july was the highest in that run at 1.3. will it be a fifth? maybe. remember, expectations are it's going to be unchanged. tune in 10:00 eastern. >> reporter: and of course the market begins tomorrow with a pretty good sell-off at the end of the day today, down better 200 points on the dow jones industrial average. thanks for being with us today.

"fast money's" up next. thanks for being with us. >> the benchmark s&p 500 stock index falls 2.6% in wall street's worst day since the beginning of july. it looks like car buyers stayed away once the cash for clunkers program ended. down more than 20%. "the wall street journal" reports mexico's femza. a deal could that be worth $9 billion. that is cnbc.com news now. i'm scott cohen. "fast money" with melissa lee starts now. welcome to the fourth quarter, yikes. live from the nasdaq marketsite this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. stocks starting the quarter with their biggest drop since july. this gang has your way to protect and profit a midst the selling. we will stay all over this market tonight finding opportunity a midst the carnage. >> a look at the charts, with one the best technical analysts out there. he's got a brokerage stock

that's bucking the trend. say will stay red not quarter. bet's get to it, get to "the word on the street" right now. we started the day off with some pretty terrible economic dat and the selling continued and continued. >> i am debbie downer. and i tell you, we closed on the lows. >> yeah. >> which you haven't seen that happen in quite some time. typically, selling off. people buying it up at the end the close, didn't happen today. first day of the month, not good. no matter how you dice it today was a lousy day. the data's been bad. some the oracle earning, lousy. a lot of things that are coming out that scares me. people will look to buy a dip tomorrowish think they're making a mistake. jon and i are talking about it, it will be disastrous tomorrow. >> isn't that expected though? >> i think that the jobs report looking for, a decline, a loves jobs of somewhere around 200,000. late in the day today, the goldman sachs economists actually downgraded the report. he said it's going to be closer to 250,000.

now, if you look inside of the ism number, if you look at the employment index within that, if you look at continuing claims, there is support for what he's saying. tomorrow's jobs is probably going to be worse. and right now the market, i agree with guy, is on the defensive. it has closed on the lows for the first time in a while. fundamentally and technically, 10/10/15, that's the technical level. and fundamental you have to get through the employment. >> look at the s&p and the dow, goldman sachs came out and said a loss of 250,000 on the non-pharm payrolls. karen, as a money manager with loss on the sidelines does this sell-off make you want to go into the markets tomorrow? are you looking around? i am looking around and we did a little bit of buying today. i certainly do not extrapolate anything from the quarter on today's action. if you go back to the beginning of september, i think we have a chart from the very first day of the gate, a terrible one for september. not dissimilar today. so i don't really read a whole

lot into it. there were a couple of things that i liked, great, big-cap companies trading evaluations that i think are really attractive, a name like clorox we bought today. i think that not a lot of downside. and you know it's sort of a defensive name. but at a valuation it hasn't been at this valuation almost ever with the exception of the depth of the last year so i like names like that. i'm not so thrilled by one day's activity or one day's data. >> pete, volatility was up 10% today. >> it was. i think that the way i read is a return finally to normalcy. back to those normal volatility levels that people have been talking about for a long time. got into the lower 20s but now that we're startsing to pick back up again i think that the other return to normalcy is keep an eye on that 30 level. that 30 level that's more of a level now where i think there is more panic. it didn't feel like panic today but it did feel like a lot of folks, and never that point in time, where people came into the market and said, they want to buy. we did get that pause at noon after we'd already wooshed down.

nobody stepped up. absolutely nobody out there looking to do some of that bottom-pinning that you were talking about and because of that that accelerated this down to the next level. i look at volatility, the can canarian, gold mine. and then suddenly today you see a breakdown and got underneath 180. closed on the lows of the day. apple, same story. so when you start to lose a little bit of the leadership that we look to every single day, that's a little bit concerning. i know it's the first day of the month, but i think we've got to have some, real big caution now as you're looking out at the rest of the month. >> in fact, take a look at the third quarter winners if we can. financials, industrial, materials -- those are the groups that led us higher in the third quarter. today, they were among the hardest hit. now that seems debbie downer, like a natural rotation. something to be expected as we enter the fourth quarter. not something to be scared of. >> i'm scared. >> i know you are. >> you're talking about -- one thing that we talked about, and karen's on board, is that

walmart will actually outperform on a tape like today and it actually did. listen i think that these areas are overowned and i know that karen doesn't like that technology but they are but they are. people have piled into these names and ugly if they all get out at the same time. it's easy getting in, it's not easy getting out. the dollar has strength, put in a bottom the last couple of weeks scares me because i think it will take the commodity trade away. if the commodity trade goes away this whole thing unravels. >> the u.s. dollar today because we did see some dollar strength about midday if you take a look at dixie. >> showing support behind the greenback. happened about 10:30 this morning when you see the dxy spike higher, take a listen to what he had to say. >> i agree with two things that mr. zelic said. he said that there is no immediate risk to the dollar, it's a relatively long-term issue. i also agree with him though that if we don't get our macro house in order that that will

put the danger -- put the dollar in danger. and that the most critical element there is siskel, long-term ciccal responsibility. >> the dollar itself will be replaced in reserve currency. we talked on "fast money" "halftime" if an alternative it would already number place as the reserve currency. i think that the dollar still has a secular downtrend that remains in place. it'll be an orderly decline. why, because it has to be. because if you go back and if you look at the data, we're going to need something more from bernanke. we're going to need confirmation from ben bernanke, that you know, what the training wheels at a week ago we were talking about take them off, we cannot take them off right now. we cannot do that. we'll have to leave them on or otherwise that double-dip recession that pete and i were talking about the other night. and what does that bring to mind that brings to mind the inflation fear going forward. >> right. >> it is there. >> but how do you -- what does this mean for the commodity trade?

if you're thinking that there's a secular downtrend that does that necessarily mean that it is time to get into commodities even more so? >> i think with the longer-term perspective, commodity in the fourth quarter is the place that you want to be. clearly today the tape for equities, commodity equities' names, it was not a good day for them. oil futures held up well. we're going to talk about that a little bit later. but overall, melissa, i do believe that the dollar downtrend is still intact and it's not just ready to reverse. >> karen, how do you parse those comments from ben bernanke? >> i agree with joe. >> yeah. >> he didn't say anything different than what you would expect them to say. so far as the training wheels i think he's hold told us they're going to be on for a while. they said low rates for the extended future. i forget the actual terminology, but it was -- it ain't changing for a long time. i think you know what's the next -- what's the next event that will move this market, beside the data that we have coming up? we're coming up to earning season again. and i think it will be important to see how the financials do and we'll get a sense in -- i guess two weeks from now. that will be important. i think that will give the markets some leadership or

debbie downer will take over there, guy. >> and you don't have to wait two weeks for the financials. when you start to see alcoa next week, we had deutsche bank today giving an upgrade and also raised the target for alcoa. that's next wednesday after the close. an interesting one to keep on. i think that the utilities today were very, very interests. jeffrey's was out and a couple of upgrade. consolidated edison, southern company, el pass omultiple names on that list and raised the target on that list as well. you wonder, if indeed right now -- now el paso is the exception -- but are they starting to come after am some of these dividend deals. if you're getting conservative in the marketplace, nervousness, if debbie down serpushing this market down to the downside maybe utilities is an area where people can get g for some safety. and if the oil names, the dollar's going to show some weakness i think that the oil names, some that have not participated -- conocophillips was in the green for the major istday. names out there that are still perform anxiety a lot more upside potentially the thing about the dollar is i would agree that we're in a bear

market. it can rally 10, 15%. it is disasttrous a lot of these commodity names. we talked about schlumberger back on september 16th. made a 63-week high. we said you know what, close enough for a double top. look at that, i remember saying you might want to get schlumberger short here with a tight stop. today it trades down to $57 and change, down 4%. on an oil market that we all acknowledged was unchanged. if you are looking to buy schlumberger you don't do it yet. risk-takers short the same. look for 52 1/2. >> move onto the next sector here the worst sector of the day. financials down 4% as a group. and of course as mentioned before, it was the best performer in the third quarter. a lot of cross currents here. and of course bernanke was talking about financial firm, regulation. and also, by the way, got a bond market rally. so we saw the ten-year yield. so the curve is not necessarily good for these finalities. and, karen, specifically for bank of mesh, we saw that sell-off late in the session. you're a holder. >> i am a holder.

>> is that a concern, to you? >> no, not really. when i think -- it certainly wasn't the bond sell-off that was a concern. if you think about -- i'm thinking about when they report earnings, let's think about what happened in the credit markets during the third quarter. it was a phenomenal rally. so i have to believe that the credit -- that their credit losses will be smaller than people would have thought in june of this year, july of this year when they reported the second quarter. that rally in the third quarter was really incredible. so today's tiny move the other w way, i don't think that matters. i actually think this ken lewis thing is a good thing because it does remove some controversy. obviously, everyone's waiting to see who will they bring in. >> but even amongst this slate, we had dick bobo yesterday. and charlie will be with us later on the show and he said essentially everybody on the short list it's six people -- would be a trade down from ken lewis. >> ken lewis was leaving either way. now he's leaving a year earlier. you know he was planned, i think, to originally leave a year later. and you would think that this

concession would had been in place before that. i really don't think that it's that big of a deal. and i think it cannot be bad for trying to clear up some of these issues? >> couple of things on the financial sector. certainly the economic data calls into question the consumer credit quality right now. i still think you could own the best in breed names, the bank of america going forward. the real telling it's real telling lead in the financial sector is look at cme. that's a real play on the capital markets. it seems to be, that gives you the directions of the overall financials. today cme down quite significantly. broke down below 300. and when that happened, melissa, the first time in a while, we had that recession fear trade with the credit card dates, the visa, the mastercard names, those began to work. no mastercard closed on the lows but a name that you may want to look at here in the financials if guy is right and the financials continue to see selling pleasure. >> two trades out there, wells fargo, down big today. 5.5%. started the year trading 30 bucks and since may had trouble getting through 30 at the upside. we talked about that, having trouble. you might want to be short that

name. you go back to the "the wall street journal" article with mr. stump. he said, yeah, $30 billion in write-down, or $37 billion in write-down. we have $33 billion left. what if they have to use that last $30 billion in not saying they do but they could be distant rouse. not saying it will happen but i think that wells fargo may be a short here. look at jeffrey's today on a disastrous tape. a stock up 240% up since march. the stock closed on unchanged today. that may be a tell. i'm not saying race out and buy jeffrey's on the bag of it but the fact that this stock was unchanged today on this tape, extraordinarily impressive. >> what is your take on jeffrey's? yesterday we were saying maybe time to take profits off of the table. the right now it's basically unchanged. so you said that that's a good sign for this stock. >> it is. >> but what do you do? >> trading is very fluid and i did say that you have to take money off of the table today and i would say it again today. my point is longer-term horizon, the fact that this stock was unchanged, given the run and the

data on the overall tape is very interesting to plea. it may be telling you something. i still think that the tape heads lower and frankly i think that jeffrey's probably trades down but for the longer-term investors out there you have to look at jeffrey's performance today and be somewhat encouraged. >> and go back to something pounding the take on every single night and i think it's very important. we talk about buying put protection. goldman sachs pulling back about $10. and jpmorgan, names that we've liked on the desk but you have to have the protection when it is dirt cheap. the rest of the stocks were pounded today. volatility's are going up. protection is kicking in very nicely right now so you're able to sleep at night. but in the case of jeffrey's, now if you still want to hold onto it, if this thing's got more upside, why not own the puts? you look at the downside put right now, it's trading pennies for the 25 put. stock's trading $27. these things are trading -- the 25 puts are trading 40 cents. that's your insurance policy right now for jeffrey's. you are don't have to sell the stock. you own those puts, you can sleep at night and still participate to the upside. >> and just quickly, any buyers at goldman sachs on this desk

with goldman breaching $180 a share? starting to look interestinterer no. >> we've talked about the reversal in goldman the other day. goldman reversed as well. we talked about it, and personally i own it but i think it probably trades in the $160s, especially if the tape does what i think it is going do. i think that we're headed to 1,500 on the s&p. if we break there probably headed to the nines. >> you are also look at october 14th earnings coming out. the revenues from thick. that will drive goldman. >> you'll wait. you'll get closer to those earnings. because i think that the earnings will be impressive for goldman sachs. i think they've had a phenomenal quarter. that's two week away so a lot of time. >> discouraging figures from the automakers, ford, gm, toyota, chrysler. sending south. the retail was down 2%p and of course september sales for the

automakers are songs cash for clunkers. we saw a boost come out of that market. >> it can be a surprise though. i don't know if may be the magnitude of the miss but it cannot be a surprise that cash for clunkers ended and sales were down. so i don't know, was it the magnitude? >> the magnitude was -- we're talking about when you look at it, 14 million and suddenly it's 9 million, that shows you the impact. and you wonder, if i'm sitting on the sidelines, i didn't participate on either side. i did not buy a new car in august, nothing in september, but if i were thinking about it in september and not able to get the cash for clunkers, i'd figure that rebate is going to come back, right? like the housing and the rest of it. once you've got a taste you don't want to go back. >> unfortunately i participated over the last few weeks. i've talked about owning. and it was painful. it was clearly painful. i'm out of ford right now. you should be out of ford right now given the way the tape is performing. given the way those numbers are right now and if you're looking at consumer shares and looking for some actual names that could rollover from where they are here. take a look at garmen, carnival

cruise line and wind. wind today got absolutely pummel pummeled. that's a consumer play that you could play from the short sfied play along with guy's theory that this further weakness is to come. >> i thought that ford, didn't they have decent -- i thought some market share gains. that didn't seem so bad to me. >> didn't translate into a good position. >> the bottom line. >> okay. >> the decline in sales was about double what was expected. >> absolutely. >> saw that across the board. >> very painful. >> it was painful. >> in terms of the consumer trade, karen's been talking about this, look at abercrombie & finch since talking about it, early september, they reported disastrous august comps. they probably come out with their september comps in either tomorrow or on monday. you have to look for that. i think they'll be equally disastrous. the valuations don't make sense here, and again, i still say it, evwent move that it has lower i still think that it goes further lower. i continuing trades 20.5. amf on this tape is still a name. >> if you bet on consumer, visa. i got shaken out finally today. i finally just said, enough.

i thought that the market looks like it wants to roll. if that's true visa will fall to the downside but that's your transaction play. >> move on here, last night right here on "fast money", our own editor charlie gasparino broke the news that ken lewis would step down by the end of the year. lewis' successor been the subject of much intense speculation over the next 24 hours. for the latest on that it is time to go "off the record" with the man never met a martini or bottle of ketch-up didn't like. charlie gasparino. the author of the soon to be a best-seller -- "the sellout." last night you brought us a short list. what's the short, short list at this point? >> you know that was the sort of instant version. you know what i really think is going on and we've reported this earlier today, i have a little more detail on it now is that, you know, they -- the board and the government and you know the government owns these guys. it's, what, 50 -- they're a t.a.r.p. bank, still have not

fade become and a lot of sort of worry that those six people that we threw up. we put them on the board. we didn't throw them up. >> yeah, that didn't sound too good. >> maybe we did throw them up. and it's thomas mont ag. and desewer and krawcheck. and what's going to happen here and that is the talk right now is that you go inside -- excuse me, you go outside to bring in what's known as a sort of eye don't want to say interim because i think longer than two months. i think it will be a year or so. you go outside to bring someone in for a year where you either get those -- get one of those people prove themselves to be worthy or you go outside to someone else. that's at least one plan on the table and the two people that we hear will be running this thing, you know, for this interim period eye don't like to say interim period, because it's a year is the two board members. the guy who used to run fleet.

for some reason his name does not stick in my head. there he is. charles gifford. the wrong title. he may be the former bank of america chairman, but he was also -- he was also the former ceo of fleet, which was bought by bank of america. and this guy boardman, i think internal internally, the oddsmakers are probably saying gifford for that job. now, we talked about the man at steel, what's interesting while all of this is playing out is that a guy that's kind of like one of those, what do you call, those rotten nickels? i can't remember the cliche. what is nickels? he keeps popping up all of the time. there is he robert steel. former under secretary of treasure. used to run goldman sachs for years. he ran wachovia as you may remember. he didn't do too well but he's considered a smart guy and apparently lobbying for this job. whether he gets it or not, i cannot tell you. i do than he's lobbying for the job. i think that one of the problems with giving him this job is some of the stuff he said on cnbc.

i mean he went, i believe on jim cramer's show, and he basically said, everything was hunky-dory with his bank, wachovia at the time, when a week later turned out not to be hunky-dory. it might had been less than a week, and from what i understand there was an s.e.c. investigation into that disclose. >> you are charlie? >> i think that is a problematic, sort of begging to get job. >> ask you this question, charlie. why would bank of america go ahead and put somebody in for a year, two years? that would seem to be very unsettling to a shareholder. karen, you're a shareholder. >> i don't think so. >> why. >> first off, it's not that easy to get someone good for this job. this is a tough job and you do have six people that oor they're not schmos. pretty good executive, right? and you have a capable board member. >> hold on, hold on. i want to ask an an actual shareholder, karen? >> yesterday could have not been the first time that idea came

up. >> exactly. >> had to had been thinking about -- >> wait a second. based on what i know. ken lewis didn't tell them two months ago. stepping down. >> i agree that yesterday -- >> this was a surprise. >> i agree with that, charlie. i hear you that. but one, especially a company like, size of bank of america always needs a contingency plan. >> they do. >> but are saying in terms of interim ceo, they need somebody -- >> they do -- >> -- four years from now. >> wait a second. >> they knew that those six candidate it's. >> wait a second. >> yeah. >> -- you ask like point meagor max miers. >> we're not, we're not. >> or guy adami. >> put guy adami in there for a year. >> i'm kick ass. >> or jon najarian. >> really. >> he he'll kick some ass. >> really. >> i'm telling you that this is the guy that put it, we're talking about is a very seasoned bank official. and, yes, it takes time to find somebody. and i think either those six people, one of them, and i

put -- and you know, and there's some that are more likely than others. i think moynihan is more likely, and although a lot of people say don't give it to him because he's a lawyer. look at what happened with chuck prince. this guy greg curl is another possibility. i don't want sally krawcheck high on that list. he did not do well as a cfo. kind of a cfo-like job. >> chaz, end it here so we can throw up your book again. there it is "the sellout" by charlie gasparino. november 3rd. chaz, thanks as always. do not go anymore. "the word" continues here in a minute on "fast." a chart at today's sell-off. a bigger breakdown, we'll have the answer. and plus, this coming up -- intrigue hitting the land of big media. will nbc universal have a new dance partner? are the french looking for a way

out? guy adami channels his inner bogey to soft case. and plus stocks gyrating to end the year, the liquidator says keep simple with a slow money trade that will pump profits on the long term. night.

welcome back to "fast money." we're live at the nasdaq marketsite. october kicks off with a triple-digit loss on the dow. sixth loss in the last seven days. does this mean that we're in for a deeper fourth quarter sell-off? here to take a looking at the chart, the chart man. market strategist. back at ec, at chart central. carter, what do you see? >> pretty good. well, it's dynamic period, as always. and this is a critical moment for the market. let's take a look. here's the s&p. what i have you here is the trend since the march low. and it's fairly precise within a standard deviation or two in terms of the march to september recovery. and what's happening is we're starting to lose some ground, in terms of the ability to stay within that channel, if you will. a break below 1,000, something that guy adami just talked about, we're in the camp of what's that's coming. in fact a bit of an uncomfortable period for us for the last five, six years.

9750 and 10,000. touching 70. we're a bit above that. i think this is what is important. the long-term trend line since the peak in '07 and wie're righ there exactly where the market is finding trouble. so not out the blue, that it would happen, and we're think that it is reasonable that it is indeed stall where it is. one more is interesting. another chart and perhaps open up to some questions if you guys want to talk about this. take a look here at the '04 level. an then take a look at where we are now, in relation to that level. we're just now back to '04. and we had a huge move in '03. and then we stalled out in '04. and we think that's exactly what's coming now. basically, the market's done a lot. and it needs to rest. and in fact, interestingly, the earnings power right now on a trailing 12-month basis and a forward is exactly what it was in '04. we think kind of fair money or had and that's the 9750, 1,000 objective, if you will. >> how long do we rest, carter?

>> yeah, so it's -- it's a scenario. you try to eliminate one, which is up. so you're left with sideways or down. and we think it's -- if there's any strength and any hope, would it be a last-minute year-end rally but we think that this period here, well into november, is going to be quite fallo or worse, yeah? i think that we have one stock. i know always -- >> carter, before you jump to that. >> please go ahead. >> it's joe. do you think this is a typical october decline, very aggressive in nature? it is going to be a fast sell-off. >> yeah, interestingly, no and i think here is why. a great fear of that and actually that doesn't happen but the fear of it prevents the market from really moving higher. meaning, not a mirror image of last october. that's too cute. that's what people are worried about. the fear is warranted. prevents the market from going higher and we don't get it and that's the sell-off that starts to ensue. very interesting situation here. speaking about financials and markets in general, a company that's declined from 25 to 2,

and whereas most financials have basically balance sheet risk or problems that can come up and bite you, if you will, this is a pure play on financial markets without having any exposure to financial markets. it's called gfi group, it's inter-dealer/broker. if you can think of it, they think of it. weather derivatives, coal derivatives. equity option, a pure play on markets without actually having any exposure to the downside of owning an asset that can deteriorate on you. and so what we do, as you know, it look at patterns. and this is a well-defined, bearish to bullish reversal trading at, again, 699. we think it's going to ten. >> all right, carter, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> thank you for your anal sift. charlie worth with oppenheimer. first solar is out of the s&p 500, and to be expected, we're seeing a nice pop in first solar shares in the after-hours session. pete, this isa space that you

follow. >> we talked about it for a long time. they're very volatile, they can be very scary, and this is just another example. first solar will get a huge pop off of this and then we will see it settle back down. >> let's move on here, of course one of the big stories of today, cnbc's david sabre confirming that ge and comcast are officially in talks for a deal for its nbc universal unit. people familiar with the negotiations a proposed deal would spin-off ge's new unit into a new company would that be merged with comcast content assets. what could this mean for comcast and the rest of the media space? rich greenfield, joins us here on set. rich, first of all, they confirmed that they're in talks. what are the odds of this actually happening, given comcast's track record. >> look, comcast's never been happy with their pure distribution basis. i mean brian roberts just turned 50. i don't think they just want to be a dumb pipe company for the long-term video voice and dat. they have the e-network style. you know, a few sports networks

here and there across the country but they're definitely subscale. whereas, nbc's universal, your parent company, they are one of the largest cable network companies. diversified media company. this is certainly an opportunity for comcast to get the scale. they tried to get back with the disney transaction. i think that the odds of something happening, you know whether it's this transaction today, comcast wants to be bigger in content, this is obviously a very interesting way, given the avendi story that's breaking in terms of them wanting to get out of their 20% stake, i don't know whether in specific deal happens but it is certainly very interesting for comcast to get the scale that they're craving since disney. >> what does nbcu get. >> nbcu -- >> if this deal happens. >> the reality is f getting owned by a reality company, cost-cutting, probably. beyond that the reality is obviously you get the leverage of being part of a large distribution platform. basically everything that time warner just said didn't work, comcast is going to re-create essentially what time warner and jeff bukus said, this simply was

not working. we're going to break it apart and i think that's why time warner's stock rallied so strong today is this the proof of the asset time warner is going to buy, comcast is going to buy and i think that's relate opportunity here is conglomerates have worked in this space and that's probably really why comcast was down today is the fever re-creating yet another conglom rate intangled company yet again in the media sector. >> i'm not asking you to comment on morgan stanley but raised their price target from disney. 35 bucks to 30. grow eps, 15%, 20% out of the downturn. what are your views about disney. >> i think just as your prior story was talking about, it's really a question of, what happens over the next 12 months? long term, disney's got great brands. it's got great assets. espn's a wonderful asset. disney just yesterday for all of your viewers, just relaunched their 7 for 4 discounts. seven nights for disney, only pay for four nights of hotels and theme park tickets. they're clearly still struggling. orlando is not doing very well.

the overall travel environment, you're talking about carnival earlier in the show. i mean there is definitely pressure on the leisure environment. it looks like these stocks have really gotten ahead of themselves in the leisure group and i think from that standpoint, i like disney's content assets and certainly the nbc transaction, if it's true, and it's consummate of the time value yags that we're talking about, it's positive for time warner, it's positive for discovery, it's positive for disney. on the flip side, disney does have this leisure of pressure, i think that theme parks air real lagging business. it took a long time to get hurt and it will take a long time to recover given what's going on in the economy, unless you believe that 2010 is kind of a rip back to the right, v-shape for recovery, which we don't. >> here on the desk, any buyers of, say, time warner, which popped today on the back of this. >> no. >> i've been smoked and bullish so many times, i have stopped. >> time warner is one of our favorite names right now. you have a pure play content -- >> yes, i'm so for long term, too. >> the key with time warner is they've got this great asset at hbo. >> right. >> and these really great cable networks which is why comcast

wants to buy nbc and everybody thought they were going to did a big deal and i think they're going to resist the big deal. >> rich, always great to have you. >> thank you. >> rich greenfield. coming up next we've got your trades on two areas in the markets that were red hot today, bond and the dollar. will they be the fourth quarter leaders? you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. we're nerst business world wide. .

welcome back to the big second half of "fast money." time now for some options action. the floor of m & a activity that started the week off on the right foot does not slow down today. a pair of acquisitions that could be worth up to a billion dollars. pete, obviously a lot of these names are sort circulating out there and people are always speculating. what are you seeing right now. >> i'm not talking m & a. has made $9 billion already this year and there is a lot of folks out there, analysts out there, that expect to see even more going down. because of the fact that so much competition in the big pharma space looking towards the generics and obviously going to lose some of the -- their top franchises to the generics at some point, they're looking to ways to replace that. generics, if you take a look this year, unbelievable. tab is up over 20%, year to

date. then you look at watson, that's up 40%. then take a look at milan, up 60%. today, the option activity was going out to november 17th calls in milan. another one of the big generics. very, very reasonable priced right now when you look at this stock, over 7,500 options traded in the first couple of hour in the day, up till noon and it continued but in that one single strike, it gives you an idea, these are cheap options trading about 40, 45 cents. the level they were paying. big blocks coming in so keep an eye on some of the generics right now. >> time to talk about what did work in today's market. bonds and the u.s. governor. will this trend continue as the fourth quarter gets under way? with us now a man on the right side of the trade at least for today, hopefully in the future as well, el capitan. steve cortez of vera cruz, who guy is now calling the killer. >> yeah. cortez, the killer. he knows. >> he knows. >> he should know. >> i don't, i'll admit that. steve, what are you looking at? >> yes, melissa, and wall street has been beating the drum of inflation lately. and if you read wall street

research, watch your channel, you would think that we're headed into a spiral of hyperinflation. but i think that those fears are extremely misplaced. and because of that, i do believe that in the fourth quarter, both the dollar and bornds going to do very well. bonds continue to do well. and then in the dollar's case, reverse and begin do well after a very poor summer period. >> what's best way to play, let's say, the dollar? just buy the u.s. dollar? >> yes, i bought it against off. majors. against yen, sterling, and against the eurocurrency but i think of those countries the one probability weakest against the dollar is the british pound and i think there's a couple of reasons here to be long the dollar and a couple of reasons that augor for a benign inflationary environment going forward. one is fundamental and the other is technical. on the fundamental side, there's enormous capacity out there in the economy right now. capacity utilization is near record lows. housing prices are falling, wages are falling. not recipe for inflation and if it's a benign inflationary environment and then the dollar should do well and the second reason is more technical and we

brought a chart. if we use june 1st as a basis, as a starting point, since that time the s&p is up roughly 12%. or at least was by yesterday's close. we dipped a bit a little bit of course. in that same period crude and gold are not at all keeping pace. up 4% in that time period. if headed toward inflation it's my theoris. not only keeping pace with the s&p but actually leading it and in fact the opposite is occurring so i think that the market is telling us not a risk of inflation. >> steve, it's joe. you're actually painting a rather bleak picture for the market here domestically and world wide. is that your view? do you think that the market's going to go down from here? >> you know i don't have a specific stock position on right now other than i'm short china against the u.s. a trade that i talked last week that's working so far. but yes, it's not a rosy scenario. it's a rosy scenario for those who own bonds but i do not believe the demand. i think right now the government would love inflation. i think the problem is,

deflation is at greater risk than inflation that the point. >> so we haven't moved since last year at all? we're still worried about massive deflation and we need to support risky asset prices across the board? >> that's correct. >> all right, killer, got to leave it there. steve cortes, aka, steve cortes of vera cruz. karen, tlt, he's saying buy? >> i am short tlt. the flip side of the trade. i actually -- i'm more bullish on the economic recovery. it sounds like than he is. >> yeah. >> so if that were to be the case -- >> and the concern that you have to have is all of these assets, these treasuries that the federal reserve has been buying at some point they'll start selling them. >> right, ask you, the viewer, what you think. time for the "fast money" poll of the day. >> i hope it's a good one. i hope it's a really interesting one. >> i hope so too. >> i hope they really worked hard on it. let'sy. >> tonight's question, will the jobs report come in worse or better than expected tomorrow? we'll have the impact on the bond market and the stock

market. a, better than expected. b, worse than expected? >> that's what they came up? >> logon to fastmoney.cnbc.com. to vote. as our producer said he does not work for the gallup organization. >> clearly. >> a reason why. coming up next, morgan stanley. dragged us lower today. buy, dip trade next in the sell-off edition in "pops & drops." >> "squawk box" rewind. >> resignation of bank of america ceo ken lewis. good or bad for banking in general. >> i hope it sends a signal to the business world to, please, stay away if us here in washington. >> joining us this morning exclusively don powell, board member of bank of america. >> for the record he was not pushed and this has nothing to do with any imminent announcement on charges or anything? >> this is ken lewis' decision. >> "squawk box" where web business turns first.

welcome back. time for today's edition of "pops & drops." a drop here for smithfield foods. down 9% today. petey? >> i think it shook people when the ceo/president sold almost one-third of his position. sold almost 100,000 shares today but he did reiterate it he didn't like the stocks but

trying to get something and got no bonuses and that was part of the reason. >> i will sell one-third. >> right. >> drop here for morgan stanley. down 3% today, joe. >> back to 30 bucks. the same scenario as q1 had to take a markup on better improved debt markets in billion dollars. that's it's it is what markup looks like. eps' been slashed from 75 cents to a quarter. >> down 3%, guy. >> not a nickname that you want to go with and not a stock that you want to own now. it's dead money around 24 bucks. >> j. crew. >> i've been waiting and waiting. i thought these retail names were too rich and came in. i think more to go. still too expensive. >> guy's still giggling. >> you made me laugh. >> mayhem here. pop here. for the man who successfully landed a us airways flight into the hudson river took to the air once again. his first time since saving more

than 150 lives back in january. sully as he is known. from charlotte to laguardia with his trustee co-pilot by his side. >> can't call him mr. softy. >> ah. >> what's upside? >> retire. >> going to top, baby. >> drop here. >> that's just me, you don't know. >> drop here for the airlines, petey? >> take your pick on the reason for the airlines. these things are as volatile as they get. oil was up during the day, started to sell these. capital raises out there. but had a huge run in september. so could that be part of the reason as well. >> down 3%, joe. >> i wouldn't jump off of train so quickly. lighten up the position. right now uso just may be the best energy trade. >> consolation brands was a pop. up 5% today, guy. >> great quarter. 54 cents. looking for 41 cents. january 5th high was 1716. even on this tape i think that this stock takes a run. >> and here's a pop for walmart. a relative pop.

it wasn't truly a vigorous pop. >> i know, you know, the whole day it was -- you know, it was there, there and then in the last one minute traded down. almost like a victory. >> and we got a drop from ms. singapore. the beauty queen. was forced to give up her crown this week after it was learned that she had stolen credit cards to go on lingerie shopping sprees. local medias reporting she sold seven credit cards last year while work at a medical clinic and bought about $6,000 worth of goods. anklet, phones and undies. >> that's a drop? >> she gets ripped of her crown. >> come on, what was she thinking? >> she needed those undies. >> i mean, come on, girl. >> women in new york vey different strategy. >> aye! up next the "chart of the day" that may make you feel better about today's sell-off.

welcome back. as you know, a rocky start to the fourth quarter with the dow down 2%. the nasdaq down 3%. and today's triple-digit sell-off could be an ominous october. but take a look at the data.

maybe not so fast. this is in fact our chart of the day. and for as many sell-offs as we can associate with the month of october, actually historically between 1950 and '08, on average, up, .9%. >> huh? >> huh, interesting. >> so what that tells you, the key to september, the key to october is just to survive. by the time cc sabathia throws out the first pitch, game one in the world series, if the s&p is still above 1020 you're going to have that end-of-year chase for performance that we talked about. >> 1020. let's take a look at big mover today and that is the vix. up 10%. pete? >> a big move for a lot of people in the vix but i tell you i don't think that you have to be scared yet. i think if we see it get closer to 30 that's when you start to shake and i will tell you i was watching it very close all day long, i think that the 28 level starts to make you think but it's not panic. we never saw panic throughout the day and that's a good sign but i'll tell you what, we're getting closer and keep an eye

on goldman sachs, apple, some of the big names. will be watching. they start to rollover and now a bit of a problem. >> means that protection is coming at a higher price. >> oh, yeah, well, we've been preaching protection. buy that protection. you should had been buying that protection, and now it's not the time to be sitting there chasing some of these stocks and looking for the protection. you're going to be paying a lot more right now. >> speaking of apple for our viewers, where is your new phone? >> doesn't happen every night. i was on the search. i was on the phone about that today. >> we'll bring you updates on pete's phone. we'll have the "final trade" we'll have the "final trade" right after this. et's been acting lately

time now to reveal who made the most money today. and today's hot spot goes to banker andrew beal. mr. beal was the biggest gainer in the "forbes" richest american list. number 321 to number 351 weapon p. tripped to $4.5 billion. he made that money buying up cheap loans and assets as the markets crumbled last fall. good for you, mr. beal. final trade, joe? >> my net worth certainly not triple being long ford. listen a believer in the end-of-year rally. look for something to short do not short best of breed, short a

name like garmin? as a team my favorite show was "press your luck" no whammies, no whammies. no whammy. keep short amf. no whammy. >> that's clever. >> karen. >> new buy today was clorox. i love the name and the valuation here. >> petey? >> i continue to like it. i think that i will add it tomorrow under $50. i think it looks a little cheap. >> all right, i'm melissa lee. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern time for more "fast money" on cnbc and also see you tomorrow morning on "squawk on the street." have a great night. tomorrow it's a birthday shout-out for china. and bull market or just bull? strategy wise one of the top for "fast money." 5:00 eastern on cnbc. first in business world wide.