would mean $21 billion in equity of which it would be a bit more cash than half. a deal with evendi has yet to be reached. negotiationsen expected to commence relatively soon. those talks continue. and the hope, according to people close to this deal, is that they might have an agreement as soon as two to three weeks. >> our parent company, general electric, weakest component in the dow today, down about 4%. $17. we're ending the day basically flat with the dow down 70% at the outset. that weak dollar helped the overall market. for the week, still settling out here. we're looking down about 1.9%. that would be depending on where the numbers finally settle out probably the worst week since june for the major indices. a lot of anticipation of some kind of correction. at this point down perhaps 5% from the recent highs that we saw, the highs for the year.

that was in the middle of september. so 5% correction, still pretty modest. we haven't had a significant correction of 10% or more in a long, long time. most notable one, june and july when the s&p dropped about 9%. the bottom line here is, the rally here, while it's looking a little shakier, is certainly not in any danger of imminently falling apart. there's the closing bell. michelle caruso-cabrera is next. 4:00 p.m. on wall street. do you know where your money is? welcome to the "closing bell." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera, in for maria bartiromo. the stocks make a comeback today, erasing a triple-digit dive thanks to strength in the financial sector. what initially weighed on stocks, weaker than expected september jobs reports. the unemployment rate surged to the worst level since june of 19

will 3. it was an olympic upset for rio de janeiro as they won the right to host the 2016 summer games. what the win could mean for brazil's fast-growing economy. how do you invest based on that. the dow jones industrial average, negative ter information by 23 points. remember, it looks far worse in the early going today in the weak jobs reports. 9485 is where the down is finishing up. the s&p 500 lower by nearly 5%. let's get more on today's action, roberto pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> could be worse. non-farm payroll reports, really poor. hurt the markets early on. again, traders watch the dollar now like a haublg. we saw things moving to the downside on the dollar right after the open. if the dollar weakened here, bottom line is, stock market improves. if the dollar stabilized, look at the rest of the stock market.

we saw weakness in tech stocks toward the close. intel and some of the other big names out there, maybe microsoft, just a little bit of a dip there right towards the close ending essentially at the lows for most of the day here. take a look at the big names out there. the defensive names, not surprisingly, did a little bit better than everybody else. but not terrifically so. these names were up most of the day. but they didn't move much as the market rallied. what did move is the financials and the material stocks. those stocks were down 4%, 5% at worst. the big financial names, look at them, they all moved back to the upside here, all of them slightly positive. same with the material stocks. remember that weak dollar. commodities, material stocks, always benefit from the weak dollar and have been trading that way. they came off of their lows, but most of them still did not end in positive territory here. next week will be retail sales. the important thing here, we've got to sew sequential improvements. august better than july, september's got to be better than august here. the consumer has been trading

down the lower price points. we've seen real benefits in smaller companies that are out there. the comps are going to be helped by the late labor day, and the cool eweather, look at these names. lower priced value in retailers, kohl's, costco, all huge runups in the last six months. they're going to have to do really good numbers for them to advance from here. back to you. >> a lot priced into that rally. a weaker than expected job market weighed on stocks today. the labor department reporting employers shed 263,000 jobs last month. that was 83,000 more than was expected. job losses in july and august were also revised to show 13,000 more job losses than previously reported. non-farm payrolls have now fallen for 21 consecutive months. meantime, the unemployment rate rising to 9.8%, the worst level since 1983. more than half a million people dropping out of the labor market. just giving up. the average duration of unemployment hitting a record

high of 26.2 weeks. coming up, we're going to tell you how this could affect the shape of the economic recovery. wall street reversing course despite all that finishing friday, nearly in positive territory. it looked like dow finishing lower by 22 points. it came off the bottom pretty sharply. let's break down the market action. scott, and richard, president of woodley park research, and howard ward, chief investment officer of gamco growth fund. guys, good to see you. howard, let me start with you. the spate of economic data as of late does not seem to be pricing in quite as robust a recovery as the previous round of data. how worried are you about that in terms of the rally that we've seen in the markets? is it justified? >> well, michelle, the data has not been as strong as i would have liked personally, of course. but i don't think it's been all that bad either. i don't think we've seen a game changer in the data. in fact, today's numbers on payroll for september were largely in line with the adp forecast, which has been

overstating the unemployment in the past couple of months. so i think expectations got a little bit too far. but there's no game changer here. there's no material changes in the forecast. >> are you bullish? >> i think the market will continue to work its way higher. if anything, this is a signal to the fed to stop talking about tightening. it's too early. you've got to keep the pedal to the metal here until we generate some inflation and jobs. it hasn't happened yet. we have to keep pressing, and the jobs will come. but we're still talking 3% plus gdp for this quarter and next. >> scott, is that your assessment. are you optimistic that the market can move higher from here? >> i guess we're less optimistic than we were a while back. we now have 10% of our assets in cash. the number of stocks on our watch list are now -- have dropped from about 700 to now 400. so -- but i expect the market to kind of move sideways for a

while. >> overvalued? >> i think fairly valued, but there's -- you know, the apple cart got shaken up so badly, that stock pickers can really find interesting values. there's still good stuff around. >> but you've got to pick and choose a little bit more. richard, what's your assessment here? >> i think what really required explaining is not the slatest numbers, but why things were so much stronger in the two previous months. i hate to bring this up because it's been overtalked, but cash for clunkers was a big deal. the employment report in particular, if you look back at july and august, that two-month period saw a net increase of 18,000 jobs in the auto industry. in is an auto industry which is having its worst year in four decades. and it was really just due to that one-time event. we've had a pig in the python experience, we're coming out the other end and i think somebody needs to read through this to see what's going to -- >> that's a pretty horrendous metaphor. are you saying that this rally

that we've seen is unjustified or are you saying that we can't move higher from here? bottom line, that's the stocks? >> no, i think we're still going higher. i think the economy is in fundamentally good shape. we have a terrible labor market, but it's getting better. as bad as it's been, it's gotten better. if we look at quarterly averages, so far this year we have q-1 down averaging about 690,000, i'm rounding off. second quarter was down about 5 -- or 450,000. third quarter 256,000 or so. we've seen a steady progression and i think it's important to not get dissuaded by the monthly ups and downs. >> howard, with the markets, where should people put money? what kind of sectors? >> well, michelle, we're in the fourth quarter now. and the fourth quarter last year saw a black hole for commodities and commodity producers. this quarter's going to be entirely different. the commodity producers are going to have, i would say 50%

to 100% plus gains and good growth next year. so i would really like to steer your attention to energy, copper, other areas of commodities where you're going to benefit from a year-over-year surge in the underlying commodity price. >> what do you think about that, scott? is that a sector that you like here? or would you steer people to some other part of the market? >> well, we're inflationists, so we believe -- >> you must love commodities then, huh? >> we think it's an interesting area. and one that will do well in an era where the government is likely to have a lot of pressure to print money. >> so you would agree with howard? >> sure. >> okay. how about you, richard? >> i'm going to dissent. i think that we've got so much slack in the economy right now, the unemployment rate, 9.8%, probably still going higher. i can't see inflation in that environment. the fed, of course, is on the line. if they don't pull the money

back, we have a problem. i think ben bernanke is enough of a student of history that he realizes the mistakes that come with that. they don't want to repeat the '90s, and i don't think they will. >> technologies, howard, are you still buying here? >> technology stocks have very good growth prospects. in the leading names, whether it's apple or google or take your pick, many of the leading names have accelerating growth in the 2010. and prospects for double-digit growth in 2011. of course, we all know by now, these companies have great balance sheets. they've got a lot of cash. so i think it's a good place to be. >> scott, you get the last word here. what do you think about technology? >> we don't think very much about technology. we trade -- buy things under value. and technology doesn't hit our screens very often. >> guys, good discussion. thank you. >> take care. >> let's take a look at some of the other business headlines from today. david faber hoping comcast hopes

to reach a deal with nbc universal in the next two to three weeks. sources say the new lease spun off nbc universal would have $9 billion in debt. a deal for the avan di has why yet to be reached. crude prices down 87 cents a barrel, or 1.2% to close the week at $69.95 a barrel. bristol meier squibb say ther experimental drug met its main goal of reducing blood sugar levels in the late stage trials. they could go for approval next year. call it a big day for rio de janeiro. the city celebrating today. the decision to hold the 2016 summer olympics in rio. take a look at the video. they were so thrilled down there. beating out tokyo, madrid, and the favorite, chicago. for many, chicago's elimination was a complete surprise. because without that city, the

ioc would be leaving money on the table. cnbc's darren rovell is in chicago to explain. >> that's right, michelle. the olympics is a big business. the ioc's 106 members went with the heart instead of the all-mighty dollars. those bidding for the television rights, i mean, 2014, 2016, the biggest piece of the revenue for the ioc, they would pay more for a games in the states. dick eversol telling us that the rio decision would mean an automatic deduction in what advertisers would pay and, therefore, what the networks would pay. >> rio, a lineup from the time period standpoint. i think particularly among advertisers and sponsors, that's probably a 15% hit, which would make it 150 to $200 million there alone. >> and moments ago, president obama expressed his disappointment, but also addressed the re amount.

>> one of the things that i think is most valuable about sports is that you can play a great game and still not win. and so although i wish that we had come back with better news from copenhagen, i could not be prouder of my hometown of chicago. >> now, there are a lot of questions as to how chicago could have miscalculated so much. but let me just say this, the bookies did have chicago as number one. so even those guys were going with them. of course, all this talk about tv rights will have a new wrinkle if this -- the comcast/nbc deal gets done. i should remind you that the usoc and comcast were going to start an olympic channel that they put on hold. and so there was at least, from the comcast side, they were interested in the olympics. so we'll have to see if this deal does come to fruition.

>> darren, when dick was on power lunch earlier today, he also referenced there was some kind of revenue sharing issues between the u.s. olympic committee and the international olympic committee? could you explain why that may have played into this decision? >> the usoc, the u.s. olympic committee, gets a disproportionate amount of the funds from the tv revenue, from some of the other revenues. mainly because of the u.s. tv rights contribute so much. and that along with, i think, the channel caused some tension between the ioc members and the usoc, which obviously didn't help chicago in this case. >> it always comes down to money, doesn't it, darren? >> i think it does. you'd think that the decision means it's not about money, but if there's a backfight about money, then it was about money. >> exactly. darren, great stuff today. terrific. thanks so much. ibm has transformed from a hardware maker into a services provider. an exclusive interview with ibm

chairman and ceo sam palmisano. where he sees the company's focus over the next five years. s

here's some of the other stories we're following on the closing bell ticker right now. oppenheim oppenheimer, the chipmaker is poised to benefit from expectations that the pc market will experience stronger growth next year. shares of intel today, higher than half a percent. costco upgraded to outperform on the belief the warehouse club operator is facing a potential acceleration in earnings growth. shares of the retailer today, higher by a gain of more than 1%. $56.48 a share. the september unemployment report gave some credence to those who said the economy is in store for a w shaped recovery. we get the thoughts from a pair of cnbc contributors, craig, and

ron managing the street.com's market movers portfolio. good to see you. ron, let me start with you. looking at the ten-year, hovering around 3.2%. that suggests you should be worried about the economy. however, the curve overall is fairly steep. that would suggest the economy is actually going to get better. what do i believe? >> well, i think that the first premise was a little bit more accurate, because while the yield curve is steep by historic standards, it has flattened considerably in the last couple of months, which is a sign of economic weakness. and the yield, as you say, the ten-year note got below 3.2%, the thing that worried me the most is bill grows coming out earlier in the week and said he bought the deflation hedge. the drop in oil, the pull poik in gold, modest though it might be, along with the drop in interest rates, and in stocks, is a different message than we've been getting over the last several months. >> i agree with ron, and i'd say

there's one other flashing red light you've got to worry about in this morning's number. it wasn't the unemployment rate or non-farm payrolls, it was wage growth. earnings are such an anemic level, in an economy that's two-thirds the consumer. if you want to believe the w scenario, it's the consumer sector. >> is it bad enough, or has the pace in the gains in the data slowed down enough that washington's got to do something else here? >> well, maybe they should. but we're just about out of ammunition. and -- >> how much more money can you spend. >> ron and i might agree on this point. a couple months ago people were saying, let's give the stimulus money back. we don't need to use the rest of it. that was ludicrous. if anything, there's going to be a little more of this fall. i think we're going to get an extension of unemployment benefits. that's definite. maybe do something on the first-time home buyers, another extension of that credit. and finally, you might get something on net operating loss carryback, which is a big deal for home builders, retailers.

>> ron, what can the federal reserve do? >> with i disagree with greg, and we rarely do, the federal government still has a lot of weapons at its disposal. number one, if the obama administration decided to take on a more enlightened economic policy, would pull some of that stimulus money forward and take a payroll withholding holiday tax for a year or two. the fed can do a lot of things yet. gotman sachs said it could double its balance sheet $4 trillion. we're not dead yet. my base case scenario is we're still coming out of this. if the market would pause here, and much healthier for a 10% to 20% correction than to shoot straight up to the end of the year and crash next year, and the economy might be slowing down on an interim basis. >> how about the hawkish commentary of kevin warsh? >> i think people exaggerated what he said. the real powers there, bernanke, don cohen, they're not remotely thinking about raising rates.

in fact, my friend lyle granley, the former fed, asked the other day about the market thinking of fed funds rate hike in may, lyle said, right month, wrong year. >> greg, i'll tell you, that op-ed piece by kevin which i thought was ludicrous, to be kind, had to have been vetted by ben bernanke. then yesterday basically saying the same thing. there appears to be the war between the doves and hawks. the hawks should be moved somewhere to a safe and secluded location. so they can't do any harm to the economy. they're out of their minds thinking we've got an inflation problem. >> i'm told that that was not vetted by bernanke. >> really? >> he did not say, oh, you go right ahead and encourage the markets, thinking they were going to raise rates and do it aggressively. i think the powers that be, again, the bernankes, cohens, they're not there at all. >> you're saying kevin publishes

in the wall street and get approval from anyone in the hierarchy there? >> look at placer -- >> but that you can understand. because they're not inside. kevin has moved over the last year and a half closer to ben bar nan ke than he was at the start of bernanke's tenure. i know kevin, i like kevin. i just think anybody who's thinking inflation is a problem in the next one to three, maybe even five years. >> one other real quick point. any talk of a really big additional stimulus in d.c. is dead. there's not the political will power to do that. i worry about that. i think we may need more medicine. >> that brings us to the health care discussion. we'll leave that to another day. ron and greg, see you later. >> more stimulus brought forward, not necessarily extra money. rio de janeiro winning the 2016 olympics. brazil will likely see a lot of foreign investment as a result. what are the best ways to put your money to work in that

nation. some answers coming up.

so much news coming out of the technology sector today, highlighted by ibm's move to take on google in the business e-mail market. jim goldman joins us now with a tech check.

jim? >> michelle, happy friday to you. it was tough enough when google found itself competing with apple on a variety of fronts, but now the company has a new threat to deal with in the form of ibm. big blue unveiled its lotus live notes today, an e-mail service that includes calendar and contacts and will run about 36 bucks a year. a shot right across the google bow. ibm said the service is not only cheaper, it's more reliable especially with g-mail frustrating so many google users. the announcement is a shot in the arm for the whole concept of cloud com puting. turning the frown upside down on broader wall street. ubs upgraded apple from neutral to buy and slapped a $265 target on its shares. that's up from $170. morgan stanley said if apple ended is exclusivity arrangements, they could double

their already robust iphone sales. has bing gone bust? depends on what market research you're reading. yesterday the stat counter data grabbed big headlines showing a full percentage drop in bing traffic. neilsen and comp scores showed a bigger chunk of the market for bing. before you declare a winner, or loser, keep in mind bing is just a few months old. calling this race over before it really can be, well, started, that's a dangerous game for investors to be sure. michelle, back to you. >> jim, thank you. coming up, an exclusive interest view with sam palmisano. announcer: in today's markets

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as we told you earlier, david faber reports comcast hopes to reach a deal with

general electric to take a majority stake in nbc universal in the next two to three weeks. sources say universal would have as much as $9 billion in debt and valued at around $30 billion. does the deal make sense for both companies? joining us to discuss it, todd mitchell, at kaufman brothers. porter, let me start with you. a couple of days ago scoffed. no, this can't possible. it looks like they're trying to get it done in two or three weeks. >> it's a great idea for comcast. and it's a useful idea for general electric. even though general electric is deriving a reasonable amount of cash from nbcu right now, that's small potatoes compared to what the core business of ge is going to be going forward. >> and todd, you agree with that assessment? >> i think it's more of a mixed bag. you know, i think in the near term, it's probably going to cause a lot of dislocation among comcast shareholders.

ultimately the rationale, we'll have to see how it plays out. >> the strategic rationale is back to this old, old question, right? content versus distribution? >> absolutely. >> you want to own the pipes or what goes through the pipes? >> brian roberts is smart enough to realize which most people in the cable business haven't yet, that the pipes are xhotdized. they're a utility. if he doesn't get into the content game deeper than he already is, he's going to be very, very much a marginal operator. >> todd, it's hard to get on the content in the various types of media. >> i think this complicates the comcast investment story. i think the real strategic rationale here is three-fold. not just about taking the broadcast contacts and accelerating its movement to online or even the localized, leveraging the localized. i think it's about fixing the television advertising model and bringing sort of the accountability and metrics that

they have on the internet to television. you need to bring the content and the distribution together to do that. >> with couldn't we have done that already? why couldn't cable distributors tell us when to watch what when? >> i think todd is living in the old media age right now. there is no return to the old days where mass media eyeballs at the major four networks is going to be where advertisers go. the benchmark, todd, look -- >> todd looks -- >> the uk just got six months advertising revenues bigger on the internet than on all of television. that's going to happen here. it may not happen tomorrow, but it's going to -- tv is so much better here in the united states. >> i don't think it's that simple. not just having a broadcast model there. it's being able to basically target and to measure within the broadcast content, like you do within the internet. and you need to control, as i said, both the pipes and content to do that, to get everybody onboard here.

putting them together in two big industries will probably serve as a catalyst. >> ten seconds here, the stock for comcast not so poor today? >> the deal is not that onerous from a financial standpoint. there is a strategic rationale. i think until they sell that deal, it's going to be dead money. >> got it. thank you, guys. good discussion. see you later, porter, todd. coming up next, an exclusive interview with sam palmisano. whether he's seeing signs of economic stabilization around the world. when the "closing bell" returns.

welcome back. ibm hoping to give google a run for its money by unveiling a lower cost corporate e-mail system. it will use its long-standing relationship to sell the product. maria bartiromo spoke one on one with sam palmisano about the importance of cities. >> we've been talking about smarter planet now for almost a year. and the ability to add intelligence to a lot of the systems that exist around the world. health care, transportation, travel, smart grid electricity. the robe we came to cities is because, one, more than half the

world's population now lives in cities. by the year 2050, almost 70% of the world's population will be in the city. so you can see that cities are going to be under a lot of stress for their infrastructure, so it's a way for us to articulate what's capable today in technology and apply it to a real world problem called a city and urban center. >> would people living on top of each other and all the issues you mentioned, health care, infrastructure, education, smart grid, for electricity, obviously we need to do it in a better way, right? >> you know, 1% to 3% of worldwide gdp is wasted in traffic and congestion systems. and if you look at what could be done on monitoring of traffic, alternate routes, alternate forms of transportation, you can reduce the congestion by 40% and 50%. it's done in stockholm, done in london. think about health care, it is a big problem in the united states. it really comes together in

cities. it's the big urban center hospitals that are under the most stress to deal with the challenges associated with health care. stability of electricity, or broadband capacity, all those things come together in cities. >> give me more on energy. how does ibm affect change. >> we've done projects in some of the hotels in singapore, whereby connecting all the systems you can reduce energy consumption between 10% and 15%. take for example data centers. we've done a lot of work, in fact we're building data centers ourselves where instead of using the energy expensive like air conditioning, you can use ambient air, the ex teshl air and bring it in. we're building one in colorado that actually for 75% of our cooling, we're using ambient air versus air conditioning. we're working with people that actually in the cities where they have big data centers to actually warm their buildings. take the hydrocarbons or cars, i mean, a lot of the gasoline in the cities are wasted with

people sitting in traffic, or trying to find a parking space. it's a tremendous amount of inefficiency as people just sit there. the cars idle. certainly they're wasting the gas. certainly they're emitting a lot of c02 in the air. to have a traffic system function, to have them find a parking space if necessary, or use alternate forms of transportation, all will address the energy consumption of a city. >> so you build new facility to build smarter cities? >> that's correct. >> tell me -- >> the analytic center. >> what kind of an opportunity is this for ibm, the business opportunity? >> what the analytic center does is brings together a lot of these problem sets, and will apply a combination of consultants. very, very advanced software that will analyze the data. and then super computing, fundamental combining all that together in the analytic center. they've developed three others around the world. what the one in new york will be

focused on is primarily financial services. we can monitor and i think give insight into systemic risk in the financial system. >> how? >> the way we would do it, working with the central banks, we are confident, if they gave us the feeds, we have the software that can analyze it realtime, as it streams from all the exchanges, and point out patterns of the data that says where there are systemic risk going on. >> there is expectation this is potentially a $105 billion market opportunity? >> exactly. we have invested today probably close to between $8 billion and $10 billion. that's a combination of organic rnd, we've purchased probably about 20 or 30 software companies, the biggest one being cognos. and one in chicago that does the advanced analyticings for services. and then we're building up skills. we're going to have by the end of the year 4,000 consultants

dedicated to the area of analytics. i think that will be 10,000 or 15,000 in the next five years. hardware is about 9% of our profits. software serves about 91%. so we've remixed it. our margins have grown in 19 of the past 20 quarters. and we've had a record year last year and off to a pretty good start this year. that's the financial transformation. where we see it headed, it's all about outcome. so we're moving more and more to, a convergence of software services, underpinned by the hardware. a lot of things that we do. we just got out of the commodity pc space. that will be the underpinning. but the ability to analyze this and apply the data will provide a systemic solutions we were talking about earlier. >> the mobility aspect of this is one of the big trends. >> yes. 4 billion cell phones versus under 1 billion pcs, right? >> that's right. in the emerging markets, cell

phone to them is a way of life. they aren't going to have a pc. we're doing microfinancing systems in south africa and india. so people, the farmers can get loans, sell their goods all on the internet. we even have voice activated google, if you think about it that way, search engines where they can get forecasts, buy their grain, et cetera. a lot of those people are illiterate. >> even in the economic environment where we continue to see a fragile economy, what are you seeing? >> fundamentally we saw it stabilize in the second quarter. if you look at our business through the half, public sector was up 7%. so the recovery act money here and the other stimulus packages around the world certainly are beginning to work their way into the economy, because for us to grow 7%, on the pretty large base, is a big number. we're seeing that. we're also seeing the emerging countries begin to turn and grow. china, india, the brics, brazil. and they've had very targeted

pinpoint stimulus packages that they put into the marketplace. but that's also taking hold. >> where around the world are the best performers, and where still are we looking at a laggard situation? >> long term we're very, very positive on the brics, brics plus another 16, we call it the 20, not necessarily the g-20, because if you think about it, about, gosh, i think the number is like 1 billion people in the middle class between now and 2030, and the middle class consumes, buys cars, buys houses, and that's an economic opportunity long term. we don't see that changing. europe actually, you know, europe behaves as you would expect europe to behave. it never goes down as far as the u.s., because of the nature of the social structure of their economies, and then again it won't come back as robustly as the united states. >> you've got some companies on your heels trying to get further into the services business. you've got hp acquiring ads last

year, dell and xerox. do you need to keep acquiring to get deeper in? what are your thoughts on the activity? >> actually, i find it quite flattering in many ways. but if you think about services, and you go back a decade ago, that's what you see happening with dell and hp and with xerox. when you hear them articulated, talking about services as the way to pull through commodity products. the services as we see it for the future is this advanced outcome capability. so we don't really need to acquire. we bought the software companies. we've acquired price waterhouse. we're busy scaling the analytic centers. we're moving what we think the future is. >> one example paul palmisano cited is work with new york city to create a crime center based on ibm's technology to present a 20% drop in the crime rate by helping police respond more

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holidays typically a period of major short-term hiring. with all this talk of a jobless recovery, how about retailers, are they going to give the economy an economy boost? jamie wells has some answers. jane? >> reporter: hey, michelle. there's only 83 more shopping days left until christmas. the holiday hiring picture is more or less the same. by more, we've got best buy. we intend to increase our seasonal hiring. on the left side, target, we are projecting a decrease in seasonal hiring needs. and the same, toys "r" us, hiring 35,000 people, that is the same as last year. in fact, the year before. for people like armando lopez, he's one applying to several places but fighting the competition is stiff. >> i know one of my friends got

hired. but out of my group of friends, half of us are employed. >> reporter: well, you know, i don't know. a little suggestion, maybe do something about the hair. anyhow, the hay group says 40% of major retailers will do less hiring this holiday season, while still focusing on customer service. how? >> a lot of retailers are planning their inventories down 5% and 10%. so frankly, there's going to be less merchandise in the store, which frees the sales associate up from up from stocking and covering store to serving the customer. >> finally, i've got to show you these picture. i blogged about it this week. these photos were taken by a friend inside target, where christmas decorations are already on sale. they were on sale september 25th. three months before christmas. i don't know. that depresses me. >> yeah, me too, jane. we'll go have a drink after the show. bye. >> you know, that's a good idea. >> see you later. let's head over to the nasdaq marketsite where melissa lee is standing by with more of what's

coming up on "fast money." >> as you know, financials were the top performing stocks in the third quarter. so we will have your hottest trade for the fourth quarter in that very same sector. also, with a rocky start, we'll play one of our favorite games here on the desk at "fast money," bull market or b.s. with our friend jeff -- raymond james. and then of course nat gas. it looks like it's hit a bottom. we'll bring you the hottest nat gas play that you might want to put on monday morning. all that and much more top of the hour. michelle? >> all right, see you then, melissa. an olympic-sized upset. rio de janeiro winning the 2016 olympics over the big favorite, chicago. we're going to look at the financial implications when "the closing bell" returns. you're watching cnbc. we're first in business worldwide. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550

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rio dejannero is the big winner. they'll be the host for the 2016 summer olympics. it was down to rio and madrid after chicago and tokyo were eliminated in the first and second round of voting by the international olympic committee. in an exclusive interview with maria bartiromo last week brazilian president lula very passionately told her why he was so confident rio would win the bid. >> translator: brazil for a long time is among the ten largest economies in the world, and it's the only country of the ten largest economies in the world that never organized an olympic games before. the u.s. has organized four winter olympic games and four summer olympic games. spain has organized. tokyo has organized. japan. why doesn't brazil have the right to organize for the first time the olympic games? and south america for the first time. >> and winning this bid will be another vote of confidence for brazil. joining us now to discuss how

rio 2016 will benefit the country is ed cuzna, emerging markets investment analyst with van eck global. is this good news for brazil? oftentimes we've seen countries get crushed by the debt they take on to build all the infrastructure. >> yeah, i think overall it's definitely good news for brazil. last week you had moody's upgrade brazil to investment grade. it's just another in a series of good moves and positive wins behind the investment theme for brazil. >> they can afford it? >> they can afford it. i mean, they do have strong natural resources. a lot of reserves in oil and gas. also in iron ore. they do have the reserves that will be able to take out loans to investment. >> now, what about the investment implications? because we've seen brazil do phenomenally well already. it's rallied along with the rest of the world. that stock market's up something like 60%. can that market get even hotter based on this, or was this priced in? >> it has had the long run so far this year, and i think gains are still to come in brazil.

we like the small cap names in brazil. they trade at a discount and they have strong earnings growth. so we think more gains are possible. >> when i look at some of the stats coming up about brazil, they've got to build half of the stadiums needed in order to deal with all of the venues, and they've only -- so obviously, there's going tb a huge build-up in infrastructure. they've got to get another 24% of the minimum required seating. they've got to improve accommodation levels. et cetera. are there basic names, ways to play those infrastructure builds? >> yeah, the steel names and steel companies are obviously to play the infrastructure theme in brazil. also, you're going to see flows into the tourism sector. so the airlines. gold and tam are going to do well. then there's names like local car rental in brazil and dufre, the duty free in brazil. vale and petrobras are the big blue chips in brazil. those will get more flow.

there's also a small cap etf, ticker br frchlt. it's the market vertical small cap brazil etf. we think that's an easy way to play the small caps. trades about 10 million a day, so it's pretty liquid. that's another name we like to play, small caps for brazil. >> the other good news for brazil this year, the huge oil find off the coast. >> yeah, petrobras has discovered a lot of oil offshore on the pretty solid area. that's kind of a long-term investment theme for brazil but it's definitely a sizable find. so there is going to be investment needed to bring it out of the ground, but yes, it's definitely another positive for the investment case in brazil. >> what about security? do you remember the movie "city of god" which was all about the horrendous crime levels there and the gangs that could take over the city at some point? they're going to have to do that as well. >> yeah, crime is a problem in brazil. it is in most major cities around the world and also the major emerging markets. so they will have to host that issue. they're hosting the fifa world