tonight on "the kudlow report." president obama's olympic gamble failed miserably. this ain't chicago politics. plus, breaking news in the mega media merger between ge and comcast. could our mothership nbc universal have a new ownner the next two to three weeks? ace reporter david facebooker

and the new york times andrew ross sorkin will join us with the very latest. and unemployment jump ee eed to. fasten your seat belt, everybody. "the kudlow report" begins right now. good evening, everyone. welcome back to "the kudlow report" where we believe the free market is the best path to prosperity. question, will comcast manage the distribution and the content of nbc universal? that includes cnbc. all right, we're waiting for david faber to get hooked in, our race reporter. but first, is andrew ross sorkin. thank you for helping us this evening. you've been reporting on this,

too. are you hearing the same thing, the next couple of things, the deal is going to be complete? >> i am. but there's a slight disconnect. that is to say depending on which camp you're hearing from, you're hearing something slightly different. you're talking to a ge camp, there's a sense this deal could be done in the next two, three weeks. maybe a month on the outside. i have to say on the comcast camp, there's actually a different view. the percentage of it happening is low. and b, of it happening within that time frame is even lower. so i'm trying to rectify and square that circle. and then there's the third camp, which nobody is talk about, have which vivendi, which really holds the cards. are they going to take this put option or not? i suspect they will. but it's hard to gauge if they are. >> have they said anything publicly? >> they have not fus far. there's a lot of folks at the

dance, trying to figure out where everybody is playing is difficult. >> we're all talk act the merits of this deal, content and distribution on the part of comcast, okay, fine. what about the internet where you can get this stuff for free? some people call it the cable bypass. might comcast be coming in to make this acquisition, 51% of the new company, according to the rumor mill. might they be coming in at the wrong time? the cable bypass, going right to the internet. >> you might be right, but comcast owns the cable line and the internet line. owning the content is going to be valuable for them. >> why is ge prepared to get out of this business. you could argue they're hedging their bets. sat this point in the game, maybe the tv business is going by the wayside. maybe we can hang on with a

little piece of it with the hope that if it works, great, but if it doesn't, we hedged that bet. it's actually an interesting gamble. >> yes, they have internet connections through the phones and so forth. what can they do? if people are bypassing cable, i want to take cnbc. we're going to be on the internet. maybe that's why their stock is going down. >> there's an interesting perspective that i just heard very recently from someone on the inside. for example in the movie business, movie windows, when you distribute a movie, it's possible when you actually own the line and the movie studio, you could close the window. you could open the movie on a friday night and also open it on vod, video on demand online. i'm not arguing that's a great reason to do it, but it's one of the reasons that's being cited.

>> we have david faber. are you there? andrew and i have been holding the fort talking about this. what can you tell us about your reporting? >> what do you want to know, larry? >> two to three weeks, the deal is being set. what is vivendi saying, what can you add to it? >> people close to it say people would like to wrap this up in the next two to three weeks. we'll see. it's obviously a lot of negotiating still to come on this relatively complicated transaction. but the fact is that it is one that's been worked on for quite some time. and they have made a great deal of progress. ge as it considers this idea of selling control of nbc universal has settled on this path should it choose to go down the selling

control path with comcast as its chosen partner. we'll see what happens. as vivendi is concerned, larry, interesting question. as i understand at this point, negotiations with vivendi have yet to begin in terms of what they will ultimately accept for their stake. but i think there's a widespread expectation on the part of ge that they will have a successful negotiation. >> david, it's not ge's style to give up majority ownership, 49%. why are they going down that route? >> you're asking obviously a key question. after all of these years, 23 years since the purchase of rca, why the decision to make nbc universal a noncore asset of ge. the answers that i've been getting are essentially -- they feel as though they're mitigating their risks but maintaining some upside. don't forget, as i've been reporting, nbc university will have $9 billion in debt put on

it, which essentially means ge will be creating on its own balance sheet, $9 billion in cash. plus, 49% ownership of this combination. so you do have certainly some upside. i believe that the prospect of investing in this business for the next four to five years, the transition we're seeing, the content, and the problems of the nbc networks. the prospects at the studio, that's got a big beta. that will turn around. it's time to consider, consider taking actions that would lead to a loss of control. >> david, andrew and i were talking about the internet story. has cable peaked? is internet the new game? and is comcast coming in at the peak of the cable dominance?

>> i don't know. certainly in our business in terms of content, how people are going to access it, how advertisers are going to be paying for it, whether people are going to be paying for it, there's a discussion of this so-called over the top. people will give up their broadband connection and use that to access their video and programming needs. important questions, i think from brian roberts' perspective, larry, we certainly know he's been interested in obtaining content for quite some content for some period of time. why he believes it's necessary believes it will mitigate any down side that might come along in the cable business. these are great properties at nbc universal. you're talking about usa network, which generates untold

hundreds of millions in profits, cnbc, and the like. extraordinarily profitable, and still growing very fast. >> let me ask both of you, what does comcast know about managing content? i know they know a lot about managing cable distribution, but what do they know about managing content? they may be involved in editorial decisions. they undoubtedly will be involved in management decisions for people who set the editorial agenda. is there a history here? >> they own a number of content channels already. and part of the transaction will involve not just the cash to the deal, but the stations, including the e network. so they do have experience doing this. clearly in the on the scale that nbc does. but i actually think of it not so much that they're making a massive debt on this business as to say in the content business as to say, we own this content. it really shouldn't probably exist just the way it is. but if we can merge it with this other stuff.

i don't think it's this whoholic decision. by the way, it looks like a good deal for comcast. >> let's take nbc news, just for the hell of it, or nbc entertainment. these are huge ventures. this is like a rare media takeover. do you think comcast as the depth, the experience at knowledge and wisdom to do this. >> based on conversation it might be their expectation. many of the management would stay in place. as you say they don't have that much experience. they do have talent there. the cfo is well regarded as well as brian roberts himself. but you're right, it would be a massive undertaking for them in terms of having management

control of these properties. >> isn't it the biggest media swap in a while, david? mr. welch bought nbc in 1986. this is a gigantic thing? >> it is, absolutely. big, important and significant change if, again, they continue to go down this path and continue to get to an agreement. no doubt about it. we obviously have disney and cap cities. >> the idea that this would conceivably be a change in control. it does not appear that any of the other companies are in position to really compete here, given their own size and what is a complicated structure they probably can't meet. >> all right, andrew sorkin, younger colleague, going to give you the final word, my friend. >> to me, does this say more about nbc or does it say more

about general electric? to think that they're prepared to sell this in this time, i think does say a lot and i think it brings up all the issue wes talked about. are they making a bet against the future of television and a bet for the future of the internet? does ge need the cash? there's lots of issues here. o. >> and andrew, my right to assume -- i guess david, you've got to help me on this, too. ge starts at 49. they're going to phase that down over time and eventually just kind of -- you know, i don't say pull out but really diminish their position. >> it's a slow but steady sale of the company if, in fact, the deal as described to me happens, larry. that is true. there might be various options to put out certain amounts of stock of comcast over time. so yes, that 39% would come down. they would die vest themselves entirely of the entertainment assets becoming a company of course comprised of ge capital.

>> we've got to leave it there. thank you ever so much. very illuminating. coming up, no gold, no silver and not even bronze for president obama. the olympic committee handing the president a humiliating defeat as chicago knocked out of olympic contention. much more on what this means for america's credibility around the world. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. excellence is right on time. it's gmc truck month. shop sierra 1500 slt with the 403 horsepower 6.2 liter v8. it's the most powerful half ton v8 in its class. step up to the best. it's gmc truck month.

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president obama went to copenhagen to lobby for the olympiced by. president obama came up empty handed behind tokyo, madrid and the winner rio dejaneiro, brazil. what's doing in chicago tonight? >> hey there, larry, the rain, not the most depressing thing going on in this city right now. everyone here stunned. not that it didn't happen because rio de janeiro was a

contending city. but chicago only got 18 of potential 95 votes of the olympic committee members there. that's what's shocking after this whirlwind tour by president president obama flying overnight, on the ground, just over four hours, lobbying those voters. there was the star power of his wife, oprah and several dignitaries and athletes. and in the end, it did not work out. he got the news on the return trip on air force one. when he landed he talked about the disappointment. >> although i wish that we had come back with better news from copenhagen, i could not be prouder of my hometown of chica chicago, the delegation and the american people for theed by that we put forward. >> now, the president went on to say he does not regret he made

the trip that he went to lobby for his hometown. several say it was a mistake all the way around, and now with this slap in the face, finishing fourth out of four cities, they say that proves he should have stayed closer to home. >> jay, i didn't know about this, 18 of 95. i did not. that's the first time i heard that. i appreciate the reporting on that. that is really, really bad. >> the experts say the first round is a dangerous round. they'll vote far city they know is not going to win to show support. but it's the work behind the scene. okay, let's work out when you're going to vote for us and apparently that's where theed by from chicago kind of kaled. they didn't have that summed up when they went to the ballots. >> thank you very much from chicago. we appreciate the update. the olympic rejection of

chicago, deeply troubles me. first off, congratulations to brazil. they're a rising nation and good for them. but when a president acts on a last-minute whim, there are huge international consequences. whether mr. obama is trying to save mayor daly's re-election, i don't know. if mr. obama had a higher motive that's broad-based olympic americaa, fine. but here's the deal. his failed five-hour whirlwind trip has hurt american interest and american prooej -- prestigious around the world. the risk of defeat was too weak. he's playing with the prestigious of the most powerful office in the world. that capital must be harbored and protected carefully. but he was not. neither he or his operatives

understood the workings of international olympic committee. it was a huge mistake. but the ioc surely knew the polls showed half of chicago was against this. coming back empty handed this afternoon, president obama must face questions such as posed by our very good friend doug ghee cass. does this signaled the end of the american economic and financial hygemony. it's a high wire act of the greatest importance in protecting the security of the united states. mr. obama bungled this. now, it's not the end of the world, but it is an ill timed setback. coming uh, what does this humiliating defeat mean for president obama. what does it mean for america's credibility around the world? is this an issue of loss hi

hygemony. this is serious stuff that goes way beyond the olympiced by that failed for the city of chicago. . we will talk about it when "the kudlow report" comes right back.

>> why did obama go to denmark without a gold medal deal in

hand? here now is steven hayward from the american enterprise institute and author of "the age of reagan." we also have our friend russell mead who's a senior fellow for the u.s. foreign policy and foreign relations. . >> big nuclear crisis and the afghanistan problem, pakistan problem? this seems like a whimsical five-hour trip that came to defeat. how does this impact the usa? >> it's got to be the worst olympic performance since the jamaican bobsled team in the 1980s. look, you know, presidents don't normally go overseas to high profile meetings like this with a deal at stake unless the deal is close to being closed. whenever presidents don't do that, it usually ends badly like

this has. the one ominous parallel is back in 1961, john f kennedy goes to vienna to see crew she. -- krushev. and a year later there were missiles in cuba. and finally, obama is supposed to go back no copenhagen in two months. i don't think he wants to come home 0 for 2 again from copenhagen. that likely mean he's going to be under enormous pressure to make concessions that we probably shouldn't make. >> walter russell meade, is this a self-inflicted wound, a, to president obama's own standing and b, to america's standing?

i think you would agree much more about foreign policy? but this is a tricky moment with afghanistan, pakistan and whatever else. self-inflicted wound? >> it is. there was no need to do it. he did it anyway and now he's got to live with the consequences. better on something like the olympics than on something like iran or pakistan, a big mistake with a big issue. in america, we have this habit of electing these charismatic outsiders that don't have a lot of experience, but by gosh we're sure they've got great instin instincts. george w. bush. actually president kennedy wasn't experienced when we elected him. then whef these shakedown cruises where everything went on. clinton had a terrible first two year ps some of them grow out of it like jfk. some like jimmy carter are as miserable as the end as they are in the beginning. >> how do you see obama now? this is a rocky first year in

many respects. can he grow out of this? what does he take away? what does he learn from this? five-hour whirlwind. back in 2012, tony blair got the games for london. but he worked the ioc international olympic committee for three full days. obama, five hours, bang, bang, bang. 18 votes out of 93, if i'm not mistaken. that's incredible. >> it's not bad. there's four cities. so 18 is not -- >> it wasn't great. better than iowa, for heaven's sakes. >> people were shocked iowa -- chicago went out in the first round. tokyo wasn't going to get it. they just had an asian city. when we elect these charismatic outsiders, they're going to make mistakes. that's the price we pay in our

country for voting for guys like this. now this is a good one to learn from. there's no way obama can mistake this for anything but a big fat public fiasco. makes him look bad, makes him look weak. now he's going to start finding out what kind of a president he is. >> steve hayward, as i said in my little editorial, both symbolically and operationally, everything the president does, regarding foreign policy is very, very important. symbolism and actual operations. now, i don't think anybody knew this better than ronald reagan. you are a reagan biographer. reagan had the los angeles games in 1984, but he never made any rushes over there. what parallels or what contrasts can you draw, steve. >> the los angeles olympics were selected before he became president. but i think obama's weakness is across the board. he has shown he can be rolled

domestically and in foreign policy repeatedly. at this point in reagan's first year, he not only passed a signature tax cut, which you were a part of, of course, larry, but he had also fired the air traffic controllers, showing that he couldn't be rolled. and most presidents show in their first year, some element of toughness. instead, obama is increasingly looking to me like a college president. in fact, you mentioned -- walter mentioned jimmy carter. a lot of people are starting to murmur a repeat of jimmy carter mooigt be a best case scenario. >> put yourselves in the shoes. but mahmoud ahmadinejad is having his afternoon tea when he hears this come downs. he hears the united states has suffered a stinging defeat. the u.s., young new president as walter said, the charismatic new president has just gotten, i hate to say this, but his butt was kicked. what does ahmadinejad think about this?

what does that do to this clique of rogue and thuks? >> he looks at the experience of north korea over the last 15 years. figured how to string us along, reach a deal, break a deal, have more talks, have a new deal, break that deal and so on. he's looking at that as a model and looking at obama professed interest in talking forever. and i think he's just going to string us along quite effectively for a period of time. it's amusing when the french are to the right of the united states. >> how does the president get out of this. i love this country as we all do. i don't like to see these kinds of mistakes. they're so public, they're so open and public. what does obama do now? really it's almost like the next 24, 48 hours, 72 hours. he's got to do something. >> he may have a little more time. >> that press conference was a zero. that was a hang dog news conference. >> he needs to, as you say, kick some butt. he needs a win, i think probably in the white house, there were some people who thought he was

going to win this one and this would be kind of a turning point. it's made it worse. >> is he too close to being the president of chicago than the president of the united states? all his advisers, rob emanuel, valerie jarrett, david axelrod, did they give him really bad advice and suggest that chicago's interests trumped american opportunities? >> i don't know if they would put it that way and i wasn't there, but there is a sense where he hasn't gotten the idea, okay, if i go and win the olympics, that's great in chicago. if i don't go, i have this big embarrassment. i don't think he weighed those very well, because look, he's not going to lose chicago in -- when he runs for re-election. he's not going to lose illinois. and if he's going to lose them he's lost the whole election anyway. he does not need to be pleasing the home folks as a political act.

but i'll tell you what i worry about more, and that is -- there's a lot of people right now in pakistan and afghanistan and iraq that are making a decision about -- >> and iran. >> am i going to bet my life and the life of my children on the united states? >> that's the thing that blows me away. that's what blows me away. >> i think this makes it harder for him to say no to general mcchrystal's request for more troops. >> oh. do you agree with that? >> people have to pick up his game or people are going to have contempt around him throughout the world. it's better to be feared than love. i hope he's learned the limitations of his popularity and how little it actually gets you on the world stage. >> wow, that's very well said. all right, gentlemen, thank you. by the way, steve hayward, about

two thirds through "the age of reagan." hell of a great book. thank you for writing it. we really appreciate it. coming up, another big story today. the jobs report for september was released. more jobs lost than expected. the unemployment rate went up. none of it sounds all that great. cnbc's bertha coombs has details. stocks shrugged it off. but i've got a "supply side minute" why another fiscal package will actually raise unemployment. how about that? stay with us. this is "the kudlow report." this is my small-business specialist, tara. i know landscaping, but i didn't know how wireless could help my business. i just don't know how wireless can help my business.

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all right, the new jobs report came out today. the numbers were not near as strong as expected. bertha coombs joins us with the details. >> president obama said the jobs numbers underscore the economy is recovering in fits and starts. well, this was certainly a fit. the 2 6 3,000 job losses in september was wider than expected. the unemployment rate ticking up to 9.8%, a 26-year high. the big losses was government jobs. cities and states cut back. and among men. male unemployment topping 10%

for the second straight month, in part because of more hemorrhaging of construction jobs. obama economic adviser larry summers said the construction losses are due to the lag in stimulus money kicking in. does he think we need a second stimulus package? well, here's what he told maria bartiromo. >> we set budgets going forward. we're obviously going to do a great deal that's going to be promoting public nemt vemts. >> so it sounds at this moment in time you can't answer whether we need a second stimulus? >> i don't slip in -- i've been here if a while, but i haven't been here long enough to slip in to catch washington phrases like second stimulus. what i do -- >> i've heard that phrase a lot. >> you have heard it a lot. that's why i call it a catch washington phrase. >> well, that wasn't summer's only equivocation.

>> that was not his best moment. i'm sorry. >> that wasn't the only one. when maria pressed him about whether he thought there would be a double dip recession, let's just say he equivocated. let's just use the po lied term. >> you know, they're going to go for a second stimulus whatever they call it. your point about male. the man recession has been a theme. they all work the heavy industry. >> for women, it ticked up 0.18%. for men, it ticked up 0.2%. >> thank you very much. followi following negotiating with democrats to extend unemployment insurances. this is the big story in "the

wall street journal". i want to suggest that more unemployment is a bad idea. here's why. in supply side terms, if the government subs sdiezs nonwork, then we will getless work. in other words, higher unemployment from that subsidy. this is the european disease for decades. they heavily subsidize unemployment benefit and guess what? their unemployment rate until very recently was substantially higher than ours here in the u.s. already the spim lus program for workers who lose their jobs up to this december 31 gets 79 weeks of more unemployment benefits. they get another year and a half of a social safety net.

i like to think i'm compassionate. the economics is about incentive. the effort of working people to find new work, that is an economic principle. the longer we extend unemployment benefits and the larger we make them, and that includes health care. there are studies about this. i don't mean to be heartless. i don't mean to be uncompassionate, but economic supply side principles have a way of trumping the best of government intentions. that's why a new stimulus package will drive unemployment rate even higher than economic fundamentals would suggest. we've got a very distinguished

panel to talk about whether any of this stuff will work. going to talk to me about how much trouble small businesses are in. >> the main thing is the stock market shrugged all this off which i just loved. profits are still intact, maybe even helped. and you know what, today's stock market showing of the tiny loss shows the plarkt was alive and well. "the kudlow report" is alive and well.

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all right, so what does the job report mean for stocks? we have a chief economist from the national federation of independent business. gentlemen, hang with me for just one minute. before we get to your take, i want to turn once again to the kudlow caucus. i asked the caucus, are you buying or selling stocks on today's bigger than expected jobs loss and here's what they said. out of 12, five said buy, six said sell and one said hold. to cast your own vote head to cnbc.com.

oka okay, bill, it's great to have you back on the show. >> small business had a bad moment. household job survey. small business lost 785,000 jobs. that was a whole lot worse than the payrolls. july, 155,000. they're going in the wrong direction. they're going in the wrong direction. and meredith whitney said today they can't get credit. no second mortgage loans, no credit card loans. how much trouble are small businesses in? >> i think the big problem is we don't have any customers coming in the front door. i don't know about second mortgages. those are certainly harter to get. first mortgages are harder to get than a couple of years ago. but they should do. the consumer, you and i didn't

show up in the fourth quarter last year. 35 years of cost cutting we haven't seen employment reductions like we've seen. it's huge. >> i want to get to this because this is the theme. 50% of the new jobs come from small business. 35% of the gdp come from small business. if anything, i see numbers that say 70%, the new jobs come from small business. the credit card problem, besides the hoequity loans, you've got health care threats, you've got cap and trade threats. all this raises the tax costs of hiring, does it not? ma what does it say about the small business recovery which, in turn, whauz what does it say about the whole economic recovery. >> the minimum wage went up 11%

sop we' got a higher cost of labor. no good news coming out of the washington. all kinds of things that make the future very uncertain. the 70% number you hear is, of course, for private sector employment and 50% of private gdp comes from these private firms and they're just not geared up right now. they're postponing capital outlays at record rates. and of course, the -- but the borrowing is not really the trouble here. >> the borrowing is not the trouble. >> i've talked to small bankers from miami to california in the last month and i asked the audience, raise your hand if you've increased credit standards. they all say they have money to lend. so that's not the problem. well, how about demand? is anybody showing up? they say no. people aren't applying for the loans.

>> the other issue is, you lost 263,000 jobs today. unemployment rate, 9.8%. what does this mean? it's going to be a slow recovery. with americans saiing more and being more conservative, we simply have to have a clinton type prosperity. we have to export our way out of this and replace the imports. cap and trade, national health care, higher minimum page, you simply cannot beat up on the private sector the way the obama administration is inclined and had that happen.

we need an export trade recovery if we're going to get there from here. the economy will grow modestly and stock prices will grow. it will be a bright spring for the market. we lost about 2% this week on the stock market. but jimmy, today stocks shrugged it off. i want to ask you the flip side of this. if businesses are still laying off for various precautionary reasons, maybe they're worried about washington, maybe they're worried about their recovery. maybe that's good for profits. where are you on this? >> well, they're good for short-term profits. ultimately you have to have the consumer come back. i disagree with peter on sun showers. i think he might be seeing sun spots instead. what we're seeing happen is continue the extraction. there's no velocity in the men

time, we've seen the hours worked. today's number was very disappointing. in 2001, we started to see part-time workers come back. we started to see hours worked come back. that's not happening now. and so the consumer is not ready to come back. >> what about for stocks? i don't care about the data. what about stocks shrugged it off. and the fact is you can make the argue that tougher cost cutting, be it inventories or labor or commodities or whatever is great for earnings. we have a big profits blowout and that's going to drive stocked higher an higher. >> profits aren't driving stocks. >> partially. it's mostly liquidity-driven market. look, cost cutting is like keith richards. i love the rolling stones. but keithry schards on borrowed

time. you can only live on cost cutting so much. >> i love there will be growth in the spring. the problem people are missing is you do have tremendous cost cuts. but profits did grow 20% in the first half. nominal activity turning positive in the first half and operating leverage at four to five times, i don't see why earnings aren't going to top people with modest growth. i think this is a profit that the consumer will lag. but there will be growth. >> jobless recovery, joe. >> i don't think. >> what is your gdp number for q-3. this is september's unemployment report. we won't get a reading from the commerce department or whomever for a couple of weeks.

>> 4% for the first quarter. 4%. >> it's a huge number. cap ex exports, inventory. >> 4%, that's totally awesome, a barn burner, a v-shaped recovery regardless. >> that certainly is a big number. mine is 1.5. but i think that will be enough to carry the stock market forward because of all the profits american companies will earn in asia off of china and other growth. american companies are doing great globally an they're going to continue to do great and it will give us bigger profits in the first half o2010. >> we're going to get through 10,000 on the dow and 1,200 on the s&p 500 with a 4% barn burner, v-shaped recovery. what do you think, real quick on the way out.

>> it's going to be a business-led recovery. that's what people are missing. >> you've got to have free cash flow. >> his point about the business-led recovery gives them the nobel prize for tonight. this is the deepest insight into history. >> coming up, my "last word." . 100 years of engineering excellence is here for the taking. it's gmc truck month. shop the gmc yukon that offers 20 highway mpg, and over 108 cubic feet of maximum cargo space. step up to the best. it's gmc truck month. get 0% apr for 72 months on 2009 gmc yukon. or get $6,000 total cash back on select 09 yukon vehicles in stock.

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>> i'm tiof talking about mr. obama's trip to copenhagen. businesses will lead this recovery, and that's why the w bull market will continue to run. but if washington spends more taxpayer money, they're going to make the taxpayer worse. let business run the economy. have a good weekend, everybody. i'll be back on tuesday.