Skip to main content

tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  October 9, 2009 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT

3:00 pm
the dow industrials. the dow is down about 31% from that all-time high. s&p 500 also down from the all-time high. but man, oh man, has it been a good 2009. >> tell me when you were standing here two years ago, did it feel like you were in a bubble and everybody was dancing, they had their choice but to stay in it? >> what an interesting question. i think the excitement and momentum down here two years ago was certainly very different from what we're seeing today. i think it's very tough to know your knee a bubble when you're in a bubble. obviously there was a lot of euphoria. you also had the economic backdrop to back up that feeling. today you've got a number of groups leading this advance. technology, i would say, really the leading group here. ibm up 3%. intel up 2%. cisco higher. and the banks about 1% on average, the drug companies also doing well. >> the best week in advantage, since july, with four straight sessions higher after the two weeks we did in that territory.
3:01 pm
there's obviously optimism what we'll get from the earnings season. >> we're all watching revenue growth, right? we've seen earnings growth for the s&p 500. but we have yet to see real end market demand. that's what we're going to be focused on next week ahead of all these earnings. let's look at the averages. as you see we're looking at this for the day. we wrap up about 3.5% higher than the averages on the week. >> of course, the nasdaq was at a high two years ago. this is where we are on the s&p 500. let's bring in our reporters for detail on the action today. we'll kick off, of course, with our eye on the floor here of the new york stock exchange, bob pisani. >> 9828 is the old closing high on the dow industrials. we're 20 points above that. s&p 500, just a few points away from that old closing high. but let's not quibble. the point is, we're sitting right at new highs here.
3:02 pm
you can't underestimate the importance of commodities. commodity stocks, look at the moves up here. one week. sometimes in a year you haven't seen this kind of move. alcoa, caterpillar, free port-mcmoran, potash. all up double digits here. next week, look, here's what we have here. three key stocks. ibm on the upside here. services are the key for them. more than half of their sales. they've been able to increase their signings. each of the last three quarters despite the macro economic environment. that will increase signing, continuing that trend. johnsonand johnson on tuesday. the outcome of health care reform, look for updates they believe medical devices and diagnostics might be doing.
3:03 pm
asset management should do very well here. morgan's banking might show strength here. the big question is, how much reserve building are they going to take necessary. how about the nonperforming loans, net chargeoff. is the rate of those chargeoffs slowing down a little bit. those are what's going to move -- the answers to that is what will move the stock market next week. today the dollar up, stocks up, but a rare occurrence. a one-year chart here. if we get positive retail sales and maybe positive comments from those three players, you might get a situation you can trend upward op the dollar and uptrend on the stock market. that's a sign of the improvement on the economy. but that is yet to be proven. scott, 4% gain on the nasdaq this week. >> we're going to hear from intel next week. and chip stocks today really the leadership group over here at the nasdaq. in fact, take a look at the
3:04 pm
semiconductor index. deutsche bank for the semiconductor industry, had a fairly good outlook for 2010 as well. the stocks getting a nice lift by better than 3% today. deutsche specifically likes intel. they also like sandisk. a couple of other stocks in here, the biggest gainers on the day from the semiconductor space. how about apple and google. i've been mentioning almost every day this week these particular stocks continue to hit new 52-week highs. i've called them newer new highs. they've been on a run. apple right now, $190. approaching $200. google far above $500 at about $518. that should be google, not sharing plow on that list. and another one i'm looking at today, baidu. $480 from $385. that's a pretty decent looking
3:05 pm
chart, as well, for shares of baidu, which are up more than 300% as you can see year-to-date. >> we've had a decent week for commodities as well, scott. let's take a look at where we finished the day and the week. looking at energy prices. finished the day mixed. although oil prices were somewhat under pressure for a good part of the session due to the rebound in the dollar. above the $72 mark right now. metals prices, on the other hand, lower across the board. gold giving back some of the gains. a lot of the questions for the week ahead is, will there be further downside risk to gold. gold prices gaining over 4% today. about $50 on the week. three straight sessions of records. so is it time for gold to take a breather, and will oil take over as the leader in the commodities complex. we are in the upper end of that range between $65 and $75 a barrel. the dollar, of course, will play an important role.
3:06 pm
the dollar index falling to a 14-month low yesterday. and of course, that has contributed to the gains we're seeing in crude oil prices, up about 60% so far this year. and the gains that we have seen in oil and in the rest of the petroleum complex, that could be bad news for consumers this winter. the heating oil prices, you can see what they've done in the past 12 months or so. and that compared to where they were a year ago could mean that even though we have record levels of heating oil supplies, some consumers may be paying more on their heating bills this winter. back to you. >> sharon, thanks very much. today as we told you earlier marks the two-year anniversary since the s&p 500 hit its all-time high. the dow industrials, all the way up to 14,000 two years ago. what a two years we have had. rich peterson, director of market credit risk strategies at s&p business. along with david darst with morgan stanley smith barney.
3:07 pm
it's been a while, two years. where do you want to be positioned going into the end of the year, fourth quarter, given the fact we are seeing a whole boatload of earnings coming out next week and the next two weeks? >> maria, i think with the talk of the dollar weakening, which we've been discussing, you want to own some of these big multinationals, ibm, microsoft. we think they can go further. you want to own your johnson and johnson. another thing that we've told people to look at is non-dollar denominated inflation protected securities. there's an etf for that, wip, not tip, which is the u.s. dollar, so you get a double bang there. you get the currency protection if the dollar weakens further and you get inflation protection in the united kingdom, australia, canada, a blend of 17 different countries in this etf, wip. >> yeah, it's a little more
3:08 pm
positive than a lower dollar play. if you look for technology stocks and semiconductors, the bullish comment is they seem to be an active player. >> you've got growth going on outside the united states. australia raising the rva, reserve bank of australia, raising rates. and the big multinationals give you exposure to that. so you want to have some of that as well on the positive side. the wip, inflation protection, is a cash substitute. it is something to protect you if inflation starts to surprise to the upside. the big key is the retail sales next wednesday. not retailers, but retail sales wednesday the 14th. that's the key. >> on the heels of the same-store sales numbers we got this week, which were a blowout. some people real surprised on the upside. simon, you want to look ahead to the next two years, given we're looking back at two years ago when we were at the record that we were.
3:09 pm
but before that, rich, what can you tell us about the new supply in the market? we had a number of ipos this week that did well. nice reception from investors. although there was that one nasdaq that traded down pretty substantially. what does all of this new supply mean to you? >> i think what investors should be aware of, we're in the probably nasty stages of a recovery. you know, you try looking out ahead, where would the market be in october of 2011. it would be hard to tell what will happen in the next few weeks, let alone in two years. but there is a recovery brewing. the question is, what is the magnitude and strength of that recovery. that's going to be dependent on what happens out of washington, in terms of the fed, what happens in terms of just capital spending. companies are still very reluctant to hire. the number of jobs, creation is nan existent. >> how would you play it? how would you position for it? >> in terms of what's happened over the past several months, it's been a very schizophrenic performance in a way,
3:10 pm
financials, materials, industrials have ton very well. telecom, utilities have lagged. i think what to be concerned about is in a recovery, where will be the rebound. i.t., alcoa posted better than expected numbers. >> alcoa turned around, it rolled over, now it's down actually. you also have to consider the fact is loaded with debt. even though it has increased its cash by, you know, got more than $1 billion on the balance sheet. >> i think you want to also look at health care. that's an underowned, underloved, i mentioned johnson and johnson as one of the large multinationals. when you get 12 months before the fed raises the rates, that's the sweet spot that we're in that rich refers to. you want to own industrials, that's the general electrics of the world. hardware technology. but when you shift past the fed starting to tighten mid-next
3:11 pm
year, then you want to shift over into food. >> but the rest of the world, just like the united states, is in this slow recovery period. >> great point. the con soomer is the key. the consumer, corporate capital expenditures and hiring and corporate earnings, which we'll see over the next couple of weeks, that will determine whether we're going to have a nice steady rise through the end of the year, the consumer, and earnings. that's the key. >> then you have the credit being drawn down. the fact is that over one-fifth of the population is either underemployed or unemployed. that's the capacity to spend, is really not happening. we're heading into the holiday season. >> that's a good point. thank you for spending time with us. 45 minutes before the close closing bell on wall street. you mentioned high of the year. >> indeed it is, for about 15
3:12 pm
points above that. you were talking about the ipos, a moment ago, we will have more on the ipo in the wynn ipo in hong kong. and the remember of the industry after the break. join us for that exclusive. the s&p real estate index, up 90% since march. we have reits in focus. after the bell, of course, general motors selling its hummer brand to a chinese company. the ceo of hummer will tell us what that means for american jobs and if he's concerned about china's government potentially blocking the deal. that's 4:00 p.m. eastern. here's the most heavily traded stocks at the nyse. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
3:13 pm
3:14 pm
looks like we're in for a bumpy ride. go ahead, ignore me. but in this turbulent market, you're going to need help... protecting some of your assets for retirement. an axa equitable annuity could give you... guaranteed income for life. i'd call them, but what do i know? i'm just the 800-pound gorilla in the room. don't worry. i'm here. want guaranteed income for life? axa equitable is redefining what you expect from annuities. ooh, peanuts.
3:15 pm
welcome back. an auspicious start in hong kong. the stock closed up 7% above the
3:16 pm
ipo price of $10. hong kong dollars. reflecting rising optimism in macau's gambling process. the same optimism is reflected in the u.s. shares. surged 354% since the lows in march. as you can see from that chart. joining me now with steve wynn, chairman and ceo of wynn resorts. mr. wynn, wonderful to have you on the program. welcome. >> hi, maria. nice to be here. >> how exciting for you. tell me what that was like last night in the ipo in hong kong. exciting for you. and this is a first. >> my buddy allen zeman was there. i was in bed in las vegas, but enjoying it very much. >> the stock obviously did very well in its debut. what do you think is behind this? here we are looking at a really troubled economy across the board. you have been certainly fortunate enough to outpace many of your competitors in this space. how would you characterize business today? >> okay.
3:17 pm
here's what really was behind it. there are 31 casinos in macau. of the 31, if you take the profits or cash flow after interest and depreciation, wynn's resorts single hotel macau exceeded the total of the other 30. >> wow. >> yeah. >> why is that? >> we've got a great staff. we've got a wonderful group of employees. we've got a great president there. a wonderful chief operating officer. and they're very conscious about a relationship with our employees. and at the end of the day, we're in a hospitality business. and it's all about the experience that people have in the building. do they feel good. and people make other people happy, and make other people feel good. you know, the gambling, the back a rat, slot machines, they're all the same everywhere in the world. a gaming table is a gaming table. there isn't a speck difference
3:18 pm
yags one from the other. but what we're talking about is the human experience, the emotion of attending one of these places. and that has to do with human resource engineering. and our ability to make people feel welcome. that's all about the folks that work in the building. >> but you need the people there, macau has really been the promise for so many people, around certainly the gaming industry overall as far as macau being the promise of tremendous growth. yet china, tightening restrictions on citizens traveling to macau is one of the reasons the gaming industry was hit hard in the last few years. tell me about the restrictions having been relaxed and the broader sort of landscape that you face in macau. >> maria, that's really a good point. when the central government tightened the immigration rules, they wanted to cool off macau, and they were dead right. there was a time there when speculation was overrunning that community. my employees were having their rents doubled and tripled on
3:19 pm
them. in spite of the good jobs, couldn't afford to live. the standard of living wasn't going up. i had to give a cost of living increase to the line employees a year and a half ago, just to keep those folks from suffering. the government was quite right in trying to cool things off in macau. one thing about the chinese government, i think they get it right. i've been there seven years. and i've always been impressed with the thoughtfulness and the steady concentration that comes through in the policies. when it came time to relax them, they did it exactly the right time. so they did the right thing. and there was solid reason for them to do it. >> what about getting there? i remember when a discount airline first went into las vegas, it changed the business overnight. isn't that right? would things change materially if you were to see a discount airline, or another airline change routes to make it easier to get to macau? >> look.
3:20 pm
the big thing about macau are the people coming from south china, from the quongdong province. an airline coming to town only can help. but there isn't a shortage of airline travel from japan and taiwan. it's only an hour flight from taipei. there are a number of flights each day. discount airlines would help, there's no question. but the future of macau is about the relationship of the special administrative region, to the central government, to quongdong province and to the other coastal provinces of china. >> is this still your biggest opportunity, macau? >> we're more of a chinese company than an american company at the moment. >> do you worry about singapore? singapore now on your heels with the first casino resort in marina bay coming online in 2010. >> no, i don't think it's going to have any challenge on that market at all. it will be a nice market but i don't think its impact on macau will be noticeable at all.
3:21 pm
remember, if the central government of china decided to let one other province besides quongdong province have one visa per month as they've just done, they could flood macau with human beings so you couldn't walk in the streets. you mustn'ten confused about that. >> let's take you wack to las vegas, mr. wynn. tell us how things are going there. it seems vegas got hit harder than other sectors over the last two years. what are you seeing today? >> well, i'm seeing the midweek convention business and group businesses gone away. it has not been helped by the administration. and the policies in washington. and we're hopeful that they will improve and that the government will be a little bit more self-conscious about the hundreds of thousands of employees and the hospitality and other related service industries that have been really hit by the recession. infrastructure improvements help
3:22 pm
the construction industry on the civil construction industry. but they don't help the kind of people that populate the hospitality and service industry in this country. >> all of a sudden conventions and the like became a bad word. >> to give you an idea, i had an insurance company whose name i won't mention that has nothing to do with the government, and a particularly powerful and healthy corporation cancel $5.5 million worth of business because the chairman was afraid that he might be the target of washington's publicity in a negative way. >> it's about perception. do you regret opening encore when you did in december? right in the middle of all of this. >> i wish, i don't know if i regret things, i wish i had a crystal ball, maria, and that i could see into the future with perfect accuracy. >> we all do, right? >> i would be a much smarter guy than i am now. >> mr. wynn, good to have you on the program. we so appreciate your time. we hope you'll join us very
3:23 pm
soon. >> nice talking to you, maria. >> we've got 35 minutes before the closing bell sounds. >> let me point out, 14 minutes to trade to the end of the week. actually surging on both the volume and the price as well. we're up 22 points above the september 22 high. which i assume is quite a positive signal for technical people. >> 65 points. it is being led by health care. the techs doing really well. that's one of the main movers here, tech. we've also got the nasdaq strong as well. >> it's been two years since the s&p hit the all-time highs. where will we be in two years' time. >> let's take a look at the bond markets and tell you how prices and interest rates are doing right now. stay with us.
3:24 pm
3:25 pm
3:26 pm
we do seem to have good news all around. the dow at new highs. >> ip think stocks will be higher two years from now. i'm concerned about the next two months. but i think in two years, the s&p 500, it's right around the 10,000 mark. i don't think it's going to be back the level of the high, but i think it's certainly reasonable that the dow could be
3:27 pm
at 12,000. >> remarking the fact it is exactly two years ago today that the s&p and the dow closed at that all-time high. that was one view of where we might go in the future. let's wind on two years now, if we may, and take a view from tim smauls, head of u.s. trading at execution loc. he joins us on a web cam connection straight from connecticut. thank you for doing that, tim. where will we be in two years do you think? >> i think it's a strong possibility we'll be in the same range we're in now. if you look at a long-term chart of the s&p, it's remarkably similar to the move we saw from the late '90s into 2001 when we had the massive runup into the sell-off in 2001. although we had a lot of churning and a lot of events that mochd the market a lot higher and a lot lower, really, two years later, it was very, very close to where it was after that sell-off began.
3:28 pm
and the -- it's very similar. i think there's a strong possibility three years from now, plus or minus 5% to 10% from here. >> that would be extraordinary if we moved so little, no? >> not necessarily. look what we came out of. the move the end of 2001, to the end of 2002, to 2003, really didn't move much at all. although we had big swings, it really settled into about a three-year, four-year trading range. and it's very possible we're going to enter that same type of period. that doesn't mean there's not a lot of opportunities for investors to make an awful lot of money. it's just going to put more value on sector and stock selection as opposed to just indexing. >> absolutely. people keep saying you're going to have to be a more thinking investor in the future than in the past with the momentum in place. in light of that, who do you think will be the leaders?
3:29 pm
how will it churn? where would you position? >> that's a heck of a question. if i could answer that clearly, i think i would be doing it from tahiti. i think what we're going to see going forward is the sectors that will -- obviously the financial sector is always going to be a factor in play. i think you'll have a tremendous opportunity within that sector as we reinvent the banking system globally. same thing with technology, the next five years, i think, are going to be a massive growth spurt for different technology companies that come out with the next generation. we saw the move in the '90s as we -- the technology sector really took hold. i think we'll see another wave of that. and clearly, commodities are going to be in focus for the next five to ten years, as the world economies attempt to recover, and as the emerging companies, emerging economies bring everything up to speed. the successful commodity plays are going to be the massive
3:30 pm
winners. >> tim, i hear you. thank you very much for that. thank you for joining us from connectic connecticut. good luck. >> thank you very much. >> we are in the final stretch here. 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street. pretty good market day as we close the week, and a 3.5% rally for the market for the week. right now dow up better than 60 points. >> after the break, charlie gasparino will tell us the latest details on bank of america's search for a successor to ken lewis. more than just money moving across markets.
3:31 pm
it's about exchanging ideas across cultures, opening up to the world- continuing to innovate. you need to have a nimble organization that can innovate rapidly and constantly is willing to learn. speed has become so important. every aspect of business has to be able to demonstrate flexibility and agility. collaboration is the name of the game. we have at least half a dozen relationships giving us new products, new opportunities and wonderful new therapies. a great place to be is at the intersection of content and technology because from the creative side-- the possibilities are endless and the ways you can reach people are extraordinarily exciting. our partnership has a long history. the new york stock exchange is where people look for companies held in high esteem around the world. nyse euronext powering the exchanging world
3:32 pm
3:33 pm
welcome back to the floor of the new york stock exchange where there are 26 minutes to trade on the week. bank of america's board met this morning. whether an insider or outsider to replace ken lewis. charlie gasparino joins us with the latest news and gossip on who the successor might be. what are you hearing, charlie? >> well, less gossip and more news. listen, the bottom line is, the bank of america board met today. there clearly is a preference of
3:34 pm
going to people with knowledge of this meeting for an insider, someone at the firm right now to take over. however, the board is feeling pressure, sources tell cnbc to open this up to the outsiders. so they are now determined to open this search up to outsiders. that doesn't mean an insider won't get it. but they're clearly going to look and evaluate outside candidates for the job to replace lewis. kind of interesting, the inside candidates, i think, come down to two. greg hurl, the head of risk and guy moynihan, who runs the retail bank. if you haven't read it already, there's a great story on the street.com which talks about greg curl, how the guy is relatively unknown guy on wall street, that was behind the scenes, putting together bank of america over the last sort of ten years or so. very interesting work hand in hand with hugh mccall, and lewis. so i suggest you read that street.com article. brian moynihan, kind of known. he's been there for a while.
3:35 pm
i would say that curl has the inside track on this, if you go inside. but like i said, the board is feeling pressure from the analysts to pick an outside candidate. they met for about an hour today. and they came to the conclusion that they have to open this up. so while the inside candidate is preferred, there's a good chance there could be an outside candidate as well. >> thank you, charlie gasparino, cnbc's on-air editor. so much for commercial real estate to be the next shoe to drop. real investment trusts have been soaring. there it is, right in front of you. according it our diana olick, 60 different reits have raised more than $16 billion in new equity in that same time frame. a lot of capital coming into this market. is this reit rally good to change course? nick schwartz, of realty capital, and michael is head of
3:36 pm
the real estate and lodging team at citi investment research. nice to have you on the program. >> thank you. >> let's first talk about the fundamentals. nick, tell us where we are in terms of demand, in terms of supply for real estate. you're the head of one. i remember when you went public. how does it feel to you? >> from a buy side, i think real estate is a great time to be a buyer. but you need to be able to basically be a cash buyer. we're very low leveraged. the market is still seismically disrupted both on the sell side as well as the debt side. from the buying position, if you have capital, it's a great time to buy hard assets. >> a lot of capital coming into this market. what does that tell you, michael? >> we've had completely recapitalized, preferred equity, unsecured debt, a lot of the reits have been able to bring in a lot of capp tal to repair the balance sheets. the balance sheets today, for
3:37 pm
the reits, are still a little bit stretched relative to their historical average. we've raised a significant amount of capital, that's what the market is pricing in, the reit price to the capital. at the low for the year, people were saying i want to play commercial real estate distressed. today they're saying the same thing, i want to play commercial real estate distressed, but i want to bye the reerts. >> are they going to have to come back to the market and raise more capital and further dilute shareholders? >> i think they have to. look at $16 billion with about 60 companies. almost all the money they raised were repositioning the balance sheets. there are continuing ma turts that are going to hit the reits. the cnbs markets will see about $300 billion of defaults over the next five years. some of those properties are owned by those publicly traded reits. those assets are maturing over the next few years. they must raise capital. remember, the public reits predominantly, almost all the
3:38 pm
legacy assets that they have, they still own. they have not disposed of those assets. and they're not putting money into new assets. >> do you agree, michael, that these new companies have to come to the market and dilute the shareholders? >> by no means, the reits are still highly leveraged, no doubt about that. but they've taken care of the long-term maturity problems. they still have room. they still have companies that need to raise equity. they don't necessarily need to selleck quit i, they can come back to the hard assets and start selling those. as guys like nick come out and buy them. >> commercial real estate, are you worried about going into 2010, nick? >> i think the sectors concern me. you need to be sure you buy a sector that's income producing. if you're buying fixer uppers, you could have problems. these issues in the market and debt are going to last for a while. >> much of the loans come due in 2010. are we going to see defaults?
3:39 pm
>> absolutely. you're going to see those properties, some of which are very good, are going to come back to market for buyers that have the capital. >> what are the banks doing now, right? we have the term to extend. what are the banks doing? pushing it forward. if we get an economic recovery, hopefully by 2011, 2012, we'll be in a better position. no doubt the market needs equity. we're more worried about the private side of the business than the public side of the business. the public side has access to capital. the private guys don't have that. we went through the menu of the capital. >> non-traded reits as opposed to the public traded reits as well. >> the lack of correlation, ultimately the question is where do you get the most bang for your buck today. when you look at the markets we're in today, are the publicly traded reits putting their money to work and buying new assets at
3:40 pm
distressed prices. good assets from distressed sellers. the fact is, in this market, there really -- most of them, except the bigger ones that have raised capital, of the 60 reits raised money, they retained legacy assets. i think the bang for the buck today is in buying new assets, and the non-traded reits give you the transparency of a public company, but they're also not daily traded and they have liquidility. i think liquidity matters. >> liquidity absolutely matters. break this down for us. where do i want to be invested if i want exposure to reits but i'm worried about some upset related to commercial real estate in 2010. you've got a neutral rating on the group. would you put new money to work anywhere here? >> we found interesting value opportunities. we much prefer the public side of the business than the private side of the business. the public reits do give you that liquidity and daily opportunity to buy and sell. there's a handful of stocks that we still like. we're really seeing that value opportunity. duke realty, mixed office
3:41 pm
industrial reits, national portfolio. trading at a wide discount to their peers. i think their balance sheet moves have been underappreciated by the street. all their peers are 90% and above. you have this opportunity that as income goes up, at some point we're going to have an economic recovery, they'll be able to outpace peers and you have the ability for cap rate compression. we have a mall company in phoenix. they have not raised equity yet. that's a catalyst, positive catalyst that they've waited and not diluted shareholders. maybe a safer type of player, a.r.e., a lab office reits. and focuses on that market. a little bit of a health care play and some of the health care sectors as you know have gotten beaten up. >> big moves in the market. gentlemen, thank you very much. >> thank you very much. >> for your insights and your precious time today. thanks very much. have a good weekend.
3:42 pm
simon, over to you. >> we continue to make gains to the end of the session. it's going to be a year high for the dow jones industrial average. on the two-year anniversary, very much a friday feeling has to be said down here on the floor, as you can probably hear. >> it's true. two years after the markets hit an all-time high, should you be buying individual stocks right now or are etfs the way to go. we'll check this out when we come right back. after the bell, we'll discuss how president obama can overcome the hurdles. his financial regulatory reform his financial regulatory reform schedule.
3:43 pm
3:44 pm
3:45 pm
we've got great news today out of the fed. growth moderating. but manageable. inflation unanimously not an issue. housing koishts to be a little built of a problem, but we all know that. i think the market set up the rally further. >> i see equity markets just modestly higher from where they are now. i think the big concern is much higher interest rates, lower
3:46 pm
bond prices, and central bankers around the world have to raise interest rates to enhance inflationary expectations. >> we mark this two-year anniversary closing at the all-time highs on the dow and s&p. time for the "fast money" "final call." the dow at a 52-week high. and that important anniversary. let's look forward to where we might be trading, how the markets might look two years from now. can the rally continue. i'm joined by joe, chief derivative strategist, sink or swim. what do you think, joe? >> simon, how are you today? >> i'm well. >> i'll put on my best nas tro dam us hat right now. i believe we can rally. i don't think we're going to go back to where we saw the highs before. i believe 12,000 on the dow is achievable over two years. we do have three, shall we say headwinds ahead of us. unemployment, housing and the dollar. three major areas we'll be fighting on our way back up.
3:47 pm
>> what do you think the shape of that fight will be? >> first of all, unemployment, i think that one's pretty self-explanatory. we're up at 10%. i believe we need to get that closer to 7% in order for people to really be confident and for this market to really of get going. we know for the next five to six months we'll probably stay near the 10% level. we need to see a gradual decline in that rate. >> joe, forgive me for interrupting. i'm new to mess markets. are we so centered on what the american consumer is doing for the direction of wall street, with so many big multinationals trading and all the concerns and advantages, challenges that brings with it? >> you know, that's a great question. it brings back one thing i said about the dollar. the one thing about it is people right now are beating up on the dollar, mr. bernanke hinted he may raise rates in the future. six months ago when we were in a crisis, people still turned to the dollar. it still is the currency people look for the most of the the american economy is still the one people look to the most. obviously with china, india, et cetera, we're looking elsewhere
3:48 pm
for opportunity. but as of right now, the u.s. still stands to the economy people are looking to. >> do you want a strong dollar or weak dollar for stocks? the street recently said the weak dollar is good for stocks, because it basically means the future earnings and every other currency when you bring it back here is worth more dollars. >> i would agree with that to a certain point. but also, let's look at the american consumer, who is still, you know, about 70% of our economy, they need to have buying power. if we take away their buying power completely, we don't want to end up where mexico was 15 years ago. you know what i'm saying? >> the other big plank obviously is what happens with all the liquidity coming from washington. what is the federal reserve going to do, what is the government going to do? the timing and strategy is -- do you think they might end up targeting a level on the equity market? >> i don't know if they're going to target a level on the equity market as much as a level on rates. let's face it. whether they say they watch the equity market or not, they do
3:49 pm
all the time. they have to. politically it's a hot button. they keep their eye on the equity markets and do what they do on interest rates, whether it be shorter term or longer term rates, whether they buy longer term bonds, things like that. as well as the government controlling rates, they very regularly go in and buy bonds and things like that. so they have a definite control on that which will influence back on the market overall. >> what is the take-away for the investors this weekend? >> it's very difficult for people to pick individual stocks. if you thich the nasdaq is going to be strong, play the qqqs, spy. against it, think about writing a call, perhaps 5% out of the money. 3% to 5% out of the money. so you're generating income from the etf you have. for many retail investors, i talk to them on a regular basis, it's a much better way to think about things. generating comes month after month and you can play the market's overall direction. >> have a good weekend. >> thank you very much.
3:50 pm
inside look at the future of hewlett-packard of the company's product group. after a record week, certainly a year high, for this market, "fast money" heads to the charts to see if dow 10,000 is around the corner. the traders are alive at 5,000. dream, dream. >> we've got nine minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day, for the week. we're talking about a winner on the day. 3.5%. >> indeed. up next, today's under the radar stocks. find out why sunrise senior is one of the today's big winners when the "closing bell" returns. d
3:51 pm
3:52 pm
3:53 pm
i'm bertha coombs. swine flu related stocks higher at this hour. in its weekly update, the cdc said swine flu deaths have reached the epidemic level. 16 children died last week for a total of 76 swine flu deaths
3:54 pm
since the outbreak. that's ha we see during the regular flu season, but the regular flu season is just starting. demand for the vaccine is outpacing supplies. in addition to the vaccine makers today, diagnostic in the flu makers. >> bertha coombs. let's look at the widely held stocks here. the market up 65 points. we want to check the wildly held. alcoa reported they were better than expected. the stock was higher right after the news came out in the extended hours and rolled over late today and is now negative. home depot, walmart, hewlett-packard, cisco all on the upside today. widely held techs, look like this. the among the best informers, intel, google, and ibm. "under the radar" we go. lam research up today. analysts raising the price target to $41 up from $23.
3:55 pm
spectrum pharmaceuticals hitting a road block with the fda. declining to expand the use of its cancer drug to include treating colon cancer. that was a blow to the stock, down 18%. shares of sunrise senior living soaring today, announced plans to sell 21 of its communities to brookdale senior living. $204 million. part of the sunrise restructuring. and it will help pay down some debt. coming back with the closing countdown right after this short break. >> we're still making gains, indeed, toward the final bell. we're up 73 points on the dow jones industrial average. next week, a report, big banks, intel. big week. >> all about revenue growth. a lot of really great group of companies reporting, giving us a nice window into what's going on. >> yep. we'll talk about that a little bit later, after 4:00 specifically on that question of
3:56 pm
revenue growth and what that will mean for the earnings season and the strength of the rally. i know landscaping, but i didn't know how wireless could help my business. i just don't know how wireless can help my business. tara showed me how i could keep track of my employees in the field and get more jobs done faster. i was blown away. i'm blown away. only verizon wireless has small-business specialists in every store to help you do business better. we should get you a hat. now buy any blackberry, like the new tour, at our lowest prices ever, and get one free.
3:57 pm
bull market or bear, traders are always hungry for ideas. they find them at td ameritrade. trading's all about strategy. and strategy... is all about information. so i start my trading day... with td ameritrade's morning perspective. that's interesting... or, look at this... i can mine their weekly webcast for ideas. this is what i need. of course, ideas are just the start. so now i can drill down. heat mapping... heat mapping shows me where the money's moving. 2,500 stocks... one quick glance.
3:58 pm
cold... cold. hot! right there. look at this-- pattern matcher... pattern matcher spots technical patterns, automatically. wow, look at that. look at that head and shoulders right there. it's like pattern radar. pattern x-ray vision. plus, this amazing gadget... called the telephone. i can call td ameritrade anytime and talk trades, strategies. anything. that's where the action is. td ameritrade. built by traders for traders. announcer: trade commission free for 30 days plus get $100 cash, when you open an account. we're closing out on the year high for the dow jones industrial average. optimism abounds as to what the earnings season will bring us
3:59 pm
next week on cnbc. it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody, welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. where the dow tonight closes at a new high for 2009. two years to the day after hitting an all-time high along with the s&p 500. here's what we're following after the close tonight. stocks rallying on wall street today. sending the down to the new 52-week high at the close of trading. trade deficit report leading the way today. money moving into health care in a big way. the dollar, everybody's talking about it. rebounding off a 14-month low as the federal reserve chairman ben bernanke said the central bank will tighten interest rates once the economy starts showi

375 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on