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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  October 10, 2009 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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tracks in real life, the game plan is to stop, look and listen. but do not do this -- do not pull the trigger. why? because one of the most important things i have learned in my 30 years of investing is that it's almost impossible to make money for 12 weeks of the year. 12 weeks of reporting season. there's simply too much that's confusing. too many companies reporting at once. too little time to do homework on each company to decide if you should be buying or selling. i need you to know this because too many people get trigger happy as the parade of news comes. they will most likely lose money, if they do. we're not going to do that. doesn't mean we're not going to gain something from earnings season. we gain by testing our ccs. that's tonight's game plan, examining the broader themes
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that dominate the market and allow us to make money longer term. that's why we will be glued to the conference call which you must listen to or read from the website if you want to have a level playing field. they all listen to the calls. they never make a move without doing so. they will know all kinds of things you have never heard. which companies' conference calls will be worth, let's say the best to listen to. who is going to help us the most? first, we're going to make sure we are on the right track with the mobile internet smart phone tsunami. just like i test my thesis by asking every technology ceo in the business who comes on the show if i'm too bullish about the smart phone revolution. i asked the brilliant guy -- did you see that one lately? it's on fire. i'm going to do the same with the conference calls to see if the facts justify my ness.
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we're going to be all ears on wednesday. the linkster, this makes sophisticated chips in cell phones and t.j. rogers, a big fan of his. he makes the touch pad. we'll hear from the dumb phone maker, nokia. i don't kid around, it's dumb phone maker on thursday. it will give us a good point into apple. nokia will reveal for a gazillionth time. it's only nokia that's doing badly. because i think they are a dominant, stupid phone provider and everybody wants smart phones. let's put it together. if cypress says it's game on mobile internet, which i think it is, they benefit from the smart phone tsunami and nokia, what you need to do is pull the trigger.
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i like the collateral damage. apple. apple. knowing the mobile internet is still going strong and it's just nokia that's weak. everyone that covered apple is raising his or her price target after i raised mine to 264 mid-september. what would these guys do, i wonder, i ponder, without "mad money"? they ought to pay me for doing their jobs for them. i think we are at the beginning of a multiyear turnaround thanks to the industry allowing banks to make more money off you. getting back to even comes out next tuesday. stay tuned for book signing announcements next week. next week, three banks i'm
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recommending including two my charitable trust owns, will throw cold water over my thesis of a banking or ignite up to the group. jpmorgan, probably the most important conference calls because they are so smart and bank of america. that's friday's business. maybe they will announce a successor there. i think both of them will blow away the numbers, including bank of america. i figure the media, that doesn't like letting the facts get in the way, will bring on noted bears. meredith whitney. she'll trash the whole darn group, no matter how great the quarters are. she does that for a living. wait for her before you do anything. the third is a special situation. it's c, citigroup. people are looking for a loss here. i think you might get a gain. this is a referendum not on citi's, but on me.
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if the number is good, the stock will inch higher and higher. don't forget my theme, 12 in 12. 12 to our price target for 2012. another terrible trust name, goldman sachs reports thursday. used to be gillette safety, you know that. can't really beat that. goldman sachs reports thursday. if they don't say they had the best quarter ever, honestly, they have to say it, the stock could get completely hammered. that's the opportunity. i think they are in the midst of a gigantic turn. if goldman sachs is bad, the whole market will go down, okay? if it's good, i think we can
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trade higher. goldman has been leading the market in either direction. it's the ultimate barometer of the stock market. we get an inkling on whether congress had its fill of health care. j & j, the brothers, johnson, comes out tuesday. they probably don't know strawberry letter 23. these are both the highest quality drug companies. i think when they report, it will be great numbers. if the health care debate is raging, it will go down, no matter what. then we can't overlook traditional tech. intel reports tuesday, okay. always big, right? the company can stoke the nasdaq fires with bert than expected numbers. i believe they will talk about their smart phone initiatives. it's another sign the mobile internet is alive and well. i believe google will burn the house down with a monster earnings report thursday. okay? monster.
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can't read that, either. why? because there are two components. two reasons why i've been saying it's going to $600. meaning how google keeps taking advertising away from print. are companies starting to advertise more? i think both are strong for google. it will reignite their earnings and give a reason to justify the move so far. 58 points in the last few weeks alone. finally, we have an indicator coming that we like to use to measure the whole economy's growth. that indicator is csx. that's the best of the rails. >> all aboard! >> it reports tuesday. tuesday is a big day, i call it. csx has the finger on the pulse of the global economy.
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if it can be bought in bulk, csx will move it to where it can be sold, whether here or the port that is lead to china. i have been puzzling over this. i try to tap the gurus to people that know more than i do. i don't want to sit here and feel like i'm the king. if things are bad, if chief "mad money" economists are right, i'm down like the economy. yeah. we will find out from csx ceo michael ward, who probably is talking to lil wayne to see what's going on in the gdp. i'm more of a j. sean form. i still can't figure out how lil wayne took time away. they will teach us. we will learn.
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it's spelled like this. okay. now, the bottom line, stop, look and listen to the darn conference calls. that's your game plan for the week. i'm willing to take any question about the body of work of lil wayne. let's go to ralph in arizona. >> caller: this is ralph. here's a big boo-yah. >> let me give you serious golfing boo-yah. it's the only place i have golfed. what's up? >> caller: about a year ago, i was looking at my ira, it was down 50%. i was looking for a way to bring it up quickly. i started investigating dry shipping companies. one that came to me was shipping. it was in november last year.
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i watched out slide from 1865 and on the first of december, it was 779. i got in. >> that was well done. >> caller: it was. i watched it go up. i tracked that baltic dry index. >> that's what i was going to tell you. the baltic dry index. i think you're safe. it's not my favorite. i got the most recent return for nordic american. it's not dry bulk and it's still the best and on top. yours is not great, but it's okay. ron in georgia. ron. >> caller: yes. cramer, boo-yah, big army boo-yah, retiree. >> let's make money together. what are you thinking? >> caller: a strong position in the department of defense sector. now, they have acquired up front revenue on a quarterly basis. >> i was not happy with the accusation. they knocked it down enough that
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i wanted to buy it, adobe is a good tech company. it's a remarkable product. it got to 32. we need to pull the trigger there. that's where you want to buy, 32. don't be down like the economy. my game plan for next week, listen to the conference calls, keep testing your own thesis, but never forget that lil wayne might be on to something. we'll be right back. coming up, is one semimaker about to rise from the ashes? we have a play to help you get in the up turn. later, cramer has his eye on an acquisition that could be just what the doctor ordered. does this drug maker have room to run or time to ring the register? coming up on "mad money." 
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you know we have been big fans of the semiconductor stock. they soared higher, ever higher since the bottom earlier this year. partially from strength from
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china and partially because of the mobile internet tsunami. a revolution in technology you will never hear about anywhere else except on this show, where i preach it endlessly because it has the capacity to produce huge multiyear gains for you. the pc became widely adopted. one of the things that happens when the semis do well for any extended period of time, they start spending money on equipment to put out more chips. that's when the semiconductor cycle kicks in as regulars clockwork. last week, applied materials was upgraded thanks to positive order transition. i'm sorry, traction. cost cutting, market share gains. i thought if they are doing that
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well, that means nvls, a smaller stock must be in great shape, too. so, for speculation friday, i think nvls, even though it's nearly at a 52 week high is -- >> buy, buy, buy. >> -- they will spend money on their equipment. plus, when intel reports on tuesday, i believe they will up their capital spending and that means investors will take novellus up big. they associate it with anytime semiconductor opens their wallets. it's either number one or two behind applied materials. novellus says two things. i have to do the work for you. first, they make important things when the semis are
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heating up and a new cycle is beginning. it places a thin film on silicon wafers and makes the equipment that interconnects the parts of a chip. they are number one in the market for electrochemical equipment. copper to enable a production of current on a chip. it's got a great business in plasma vapor distribution. it deposits insulating on silicone wafers. the memory market is moving toward using copper, which means more demand for both these kind of equipment. why else do i like novellus? they saw the downturn coming. they slashed expenditures and did lay off 10% of its work force. ahead of the big chip company sales decline.
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it could benefit from difficulties of the main competitor, they are going through a reorganization now. some would say it's in disarray. it has an oakland raider feel to it. it could be tough on business and help novellus in the short term. this isn't just about cost cutting. they are in better shape. they have improved dramatically. novellus is looking at a 45% to 50% bank account growth. highest growth of any company i followed. samsung appears to be increasing by 50% to $5.4 billion. another sign that chip makers are looking to buy new equipment and could be fantastic for novellus. don't wait too long for this one. when it turns, it turns fast. sure, it will look expensive. it trades at 27 times next year's earnings. you have to buy them when they
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look expensive. they turn out to be cheap. that's what's happening now. hey, i would not speculate on a takeover basis. i wouldn't be surprised if they were taken over. $587 million in cash. $6 a share in cash. 29% of their stock price. it's a gigantic cash horde. it's cheap for them given the strong yen versus the weak dollar. novellus is in a great position to rebound. having cut costs aggressively during the downturn. now, huge orders coming their way, i think it makes a great speculative buy. do your homework. over the weekend, the cooling off period, buy in increments if you want to pick up shares.
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this is the highest quality semiconductor company in the world. coming up, he's got his eye on what could be just what the doctor ordered. after a huge rally, does this drug maker have room to run or is it time to ring the register? later, lightning strikes. cramer goes electric, taking your calls in a lightning round. all coming up on "mad money."
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every once in awhile, a smaller company, maybe one you never heard of, gets a chance to get the better of a big, corporate titan. totally taking advantage of them, taking them to the cleaners, one hour martinizing. the results can be spectacular for shareholders at the underdog. right now, the underdog i think is about to clean up, the one that's going to mop the floor with -- with overcat, if anyone remembers that old cartoon show. i'm showing my age. don't i look spry for 64 years
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old, though? that company is -- warner wcrx. it's an irish drug business. don't know it? let's think. warner chilcott. sounds like the name of someone that belongs to a country club that would never let me in. they are about to be known by everyone. they are taking advantage of a decision made by procter & gamble to ditch its drug business. they will pay $3.1 billion. total highway robbery for a good buy. they are in the middle of restructuring. i am impressed with what's happening in cincinnati. it had no choice but to sell off for dirt cheap. 1.3 times the division sales. 5.7 times its earnings.
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that's why wcrx is up 47% since the deal was announced. most companies see their stocks fall on the news they are making acquisitions. i think there's tons of upside here. based on the fundamentals of the deal and more important the history of similar deals. i see warner chilcott as the son of chatham, the over the counter drug company, think icy hot, gold bond, not that it's working for the rash i have under this shirt and selsem blue. want to see the rash? want to see it. >> no. >> we'll leave that out. they got to get five brands because they had to fire them to buy pfizers consumer health care business. it was an antitrust deal.
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one month after it was announced, it was up 5%. three months lather, up 59%. chatham was up 112% versus 15% the s&p. still up 91%. s&p is down 21%. that is serious outperformance. i think the similarities, versus the brands from j & j and warner chilcott. so, despite the early climb and
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remember, as buffett desciple miley cyrus taught us, it is the climb. yeah. i think there's a ton of upside left until the deal closes. it looks good for them. the fundamentals, the acquisitions are pretty impressive. it adds $1.55 to their earnings for 2010. it's a huge increase. this could nearly double the size of the company or the size of its profit. the ceo called it a transformational move and he's right. they are getting good drugs that should help with their portfolio. they are picking up tablets for ulcerative colitis. it has $636 million in u.s. sales. this was a grand theft pharma. procter just had a strategy to protect the franchise. actinell. it has $989 million in u.s. sales. it's a blockbuster.
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they get co-promotional rights for enable ex. it's an overactive bladder drug. i don't expect any antitrust issues. there's limited overlaps. the cherry on top here is that warner chilcott grabs the pipeline including a second generation osteoporosis product to replace actonel. they have a patch. they are more valuable to warner chilcott than to procter. procter has to prioritize. the consumer health care business doesn't fit the program. no matter what procter did to this division, it couldn't move the needle for them. they are the needle for warner chilcott.
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in addition, they are about to launch two new erectile dysfunction treatments, a catalyst you want to get in on ahead of. it could stiffen up the company's prospects. it was a good idea anyway as both drugs were experiencing declining volumes. the heartbreak of psoriasis ends up with the company it treated. pretty cheap when you consider 2010 to 2011, it's expected to grow at 22%. it's without factoring benefits from the pipeline it's acquiring. they will become the fastest drug company when the deal closes.
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people pay up big. it should close november 1. get in ahead of that. there's nine guys who follow it. eight like it already. the more attention it gets from the street, the higher it goes. here's the bottom line on this little company. when smaller companies get a chance to buy divisions from powerhouses at fire sale prices, you get huge gains. it's what happens when chatham picked up johnson & johnson for a song. i think it will happen again, with warner chilcott. >> bob in pennsylvania. >> caller: this is bob in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. the home of the pittsburgh steelers and penguins. >> steelers is the most popular jersey. go ahead. >> caller: i'm looking for something answering questions about ambion.
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i bought in at $17.50 a share. now, i'm wondering where it could go from here. is this stock held down by a sense of insecurity of where health care reform is going or is it something else? this kind of health care business will succeed, given all the debate over the health care reform in congress could legislation potentially affect the stock? >> to be sure, it did not open at 17. you must have bought it later in the aftermarket, maybe 20 days after. it didn't open at 17. oh. okay. anyway, what matters here is that it's a classic play on the legislation. i'm surprised it hasn't moved more. i think it will. is it as good as all scripts? no. it's perfect for this environment. we get health care passage, that stock should go up. andrea in wisconsin. >> boo-yah, jim cramer, you're my monday night football. >> i am? >> caller: yes, you are.
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cnbc is my espn. i'm calling because schering-plough just launched its help help >> right. >> caller: it's competing with abilify. how will it affect the companies stocks? >> bristol-myers i'm recommending. got that juicy 6% yield which is safe. schering-plough is merging with merck. it's a no-win proposition. no more of a win than pfizer. i just don't think it can help enough. i think you should -- you know, i'm still a seller of merck, frankly. i don't like the stock. we learned warner chilcott's deal could be your prescription for "mad money". stay with cramer. next, try to keep up with
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cramer as he takes your calls rapid-fire in an all new lightning round. plus, e-mail us at "mad money" at cnbc.com and jim could answer you on the air. looks like we're in for a bumpy ride. go ahead, ignore me. but in this turbulent market, you're going to need help... protecting some of your assets for retirement. an axa equitable annuity could give you... guaranteed income for life. i'd call them, but what do i know? i'm just the 800-pound gorilla in the room. don't worry. i'm here.
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it's time. it's time for the lightning round. what's that all about, you ask? here's when i tell you to buy buy buy, sell sell sell. i don't know the questions ahead of time. you hear this sound, then the lightning round is over. are you ready? it's time for the lightning round. this is oh, boy. i hesitate to start with this. mike in south carolina. mike. >> caller: jim. what's going on, man? >> not much, getting ready for a couple big games. what's up?
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>> caller: i hear ya. a warm boo-yah to you. >> fantastic. we love clemson. go ahead. >> caller: a solid utility to pick. what's your take on aep. >> american power is 5% yield. i'm concerned with that. they don't raise their rates a lot. a coal based company that has a lot of coal base in the year 2010 is not what anybody will want to be in. let's go to brett in illinois. >> cramer, this is brett from chicago, calling with a big northwestern kellogg school of management boo-yah. >> i think northwestern is terrific, how can i help? >> caller: the citibank of scotland, do you think rbi is too risky?
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>> yes, there's so many others i like. they stubbed their toes and did a lot of wrong things. michael in new jersey. michael. >> caller: a big oktoberfest boo-yah to you. >> wow, oktoberfest boo-yah. that works for me. >> caller: i want you to be my clean up guy for verizon. hold or sell? >> someone said to me, verizon does nothing. i said it doesn't do nothing. it pays a good yield while you wait for the earnings. i'm not backing away. you know what? money doesn't have to be exciting. we try to make it exciting. sometimes boring works. >> pat. >> caller: amico, is it time to get out?
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>> no. we want that. if you bought it when it was lower, this is the cheapest big cap gold company. they are making a lot of money. i cannot say you should sell it. let's go to andy in new york. andy! >> caller: jim, boo-yah from new york. >> we haven't had a call from cuse. fabulous school. i have an executive producer from there. go ahead. >> caller: wfrmenc. >> no, no, no, no. sell sell sell. they can't get their act together. numbers keep getting cut. you are staying away from that one. robert in nevada.
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robert. >> caller: hello, jim. boo-yah. >> go ahead robert. >> caller: my question is about british petroleum. i'm building a new portfolio. i'm torn between that and chevron. >> i own them both. chevron announced a better number yesterday. it was a great conference call. i have to tell you, i think bp is now cheaper than chevron. i own them both. i wouldn't be a buyer of bp. right here, right now, bob in -- do they know i have a terrible rash and i'm itchy? let's go to bob in wisconsin. bob in wisconsin. bob. >> caller: jim cramer, mr. jim cramer, you do an excellent job, professional with so much background and the great advice that i love listening to you, my friend. the only thing i would hope for is if i could join you some day on this show to assist you. >> wow, i don't know. i think there may be a contest
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where someday someone could start off the lightning round with me. how about a stock, bob. >> caller: pnx, phoenix company, a life insurance company. >> no. too risky. we have too much. i'd rather see aflac for disability, metlife, yes, even metlife. that's too risky for me. i'm staying away. let's end with tom in washington. tom. >> caller: hello, jim. this is tom simpson calling with a lilac colored boo-yah from spokane, washington. >> gonzaga is in the football pool. it's already created. they go all the way, i'm telling you. how about a stock. >> caller: the stock. i'm calling you with a precious question. should i buy more, hold or sell my shares in heckla mining, hl.
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>> it's not apples to apples. i don't like it. coal is on fire. there's no reason to sell that, whatsoever. our previous caller wanted to know whether they could play a role in this show. may i suggest that you check out tonight's trivia question and stick with cramer.
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tonight, we are heading to brazil. brazil is ultra, ultra hot. it's steaming. the sexiest thing out of brazil is not gazelle. we like brazil and we like -- >> i'm a little conflicted as to whether to say hi or boo-yah. >> the latter is better. boo-yah from boca raton. >> i have a halloween boo-yah. >> very scary. >> boo-yah to ya. >> we have a lot of boo-yah things going today. i'm frightened now. trick or treat. my first reaction was classic miley cyrus. ♪
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>> yeah, that's right, i was nodding my head like yeah. you have to do it like miley. i mean, i would have been moving my hips. okay. this show is great. cramer knows how to throw a party. i have to be careful. you never know when they are filming. tomorrow, we're working into the show. i have to call on all my investing knowledge. bring in every sage i have, including the team of investors like the black eyed peas. ♪ >> let's live it up, i got my money. let's spend it up. or do they mean spend it down?
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i have a feeling i'm a little late, like fill up my cup. moz
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yesterday stephen in illinois made me feel look a regular old clown. and a subpar one at that. in the vein of bozo rather than crusty. he stumped me with a question about emergent biosolutions. symbol ebs. since i'll do anything to avoid looking like a chump, i got to do what i always do. i go back to the home work and come up with an answer. otherwise, i'll be spending the rest of the week beating myself up drinking the cheap scotch on the increasingly dirty linolium floor. it is a tiny little $530 million biotech company. it makes the only fda approved vaccine for anthrax. they have a steady business and it should last until 2013 selling it to the government as
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biothrax vaccines are required for military personnel. they're also working on a successor drug. it's more stable. and should work nicely as a patent extender if it gets fda approval. here's why like it as a solid speculative play. it is expected to be awarded a new contract to supply the government worth up to $500 million. that is nearly the same size as the company's market cap. that is a catalyst, we're speculating on. that beyond it, ebs has a good pipeline of vaccines in the works not just for anthrax but typhoid and clymidia. just think how huge a vaccine for an std like that works and gets approved. now i think ebs is a buy. but it's a expect buy. be careful with this one. stephen suggested he clearly has horse sense.
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now let's go to mail. this is from lisa in annapolis. okay. my friend eric grudin is from. a huge applause for the interview with dan last night. it was spot on and deeply needed. job creations probably at the top of most of our lists. i have made a commitment to myself this past year to call or e-mail my elected officials each week to make my voice be heard. they've been fantastic shows, jam packed with lots of information and interviews. as always, your outfits are gorgeous and so "g.q.." i don't know where to start. i think dan wanted to tell the story. he is the man we should thank. he is taking the time out from running major steel company, the best in america, to create an -- to make everyone realize that creation of jobs is the most important thing. my hats off. thank you to lisa for the nice things. thank you, dan, for being a great american.
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here's one from jonathan. this one is from atlanta. >> this is much more infective and efficient. jonathan, like so many viewers, you have completely called out that new high list. he's right. "mad money" is back after the break.
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>> the real back to school season is finally here. the "mad money" back to school tour is back in session. and headed to the price college of business at the university of oklahoma. if you are a student at the university of oklahoma and wish to attend the "mad money" back to school tour on october 30th, visit madmoney.cnbc.com. now you can get a backstage pass.
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i'm nodding my head like yeah. see you monday!
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coming up on the suze orman show. are you one of the lucky ones who actually have money to invest? you better watch because i'm going to be talking to you. also -- >> i am a professional photographer. in the last few years i have started to see the decline. >> your question to me really is should i take that brave move right now and close it down because currently i'm not making any money and you're scared to death about it, correct? >> that's pretty correct. plus -- what are you thinking? do you think i just sit here and say this to you because it's a fun thing to do? i seriously care about your money, but you obviously don't care about it as much as i do. and you ask me can i afford it? >> i would like to buy a stiletto titanium hammer.

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