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markets holding onto their gains. a good start to the week for the bulls. thanks for watching "street signs." i'm melissa francis in for maria bartiromo i am sorry, in for erin burnett. maria bartiromo's up next on the "closing bell." are more deals in the pipeline, and which companies could be prime takeover targets? live from the new york stock exchange, this is the final and most-important hour of the trading day. >> and there's a live piskt the floor of the new york stock exchange. hi, everybody, welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. we kick off our holiday-shortened week here at nyse on a high note dow jones industrial up 100 points. bring in my partner scott wapner today. >> absolutely the dollar is higher today and sore the stocks. the dollar index has been up now for eight straight days and it has the market higher today.

there's a look at dollar index. almost right at the highs of the day now. the s&p 500 in fact, has hit a new 14-month high. the nasdaq hit a 14th-month higher so today. as technology remains strong as well. health care stocks, among the issues, leading way today. in fact, hmos are the best performers this quarter as we've moved toward health care reform. maybe it could had been a little bit worse. that's prevailing thoughts some more. customers coming into the system as well for health care providers. nonetheless, health care stocks best performers this quarter. aetna, signa and humana are the ones that i'm talking about. commodities may be weaker today. commodity stocks, though, are higher. remember, gold and oil are lower today. a the love the commodity stocks themselves are higher. really, led by alcoa and that's a key story. morgan stanley upgradinging the stock to overweight. joint venture with saudi arabia could add 15% to capacity, big news, in fact alcoa's having its best month in some ten years. console, bp and halliburton are the other stocks watching to

plus side today. how about the financials, citi's lower or has been throughout the day or flat line. jpmorgan, wells fargo and bank of america are all stronger today. the earnings are set to rise in the coming year and that's what i am talking about on the bottom of your screen there. citi literally as speaking here jumping between positive and negative territory or even the flat line. did have earnings news out there. walgreens beat on the bottom line. profits up 20%, helped in part by the flu shots. conagca, raised their full-year outlook as well and fertilizer stocks strong today. as potash added. goldman's really positive overall on the fertilizer space. how about retailers, all of this worry about this huge snowstorm that blanketed the northeast over the weekend. retailers are the best-performing sector today. the department stores, like jcpenney, best buy and retailer

tiffany having a strong day. our team's covering the market and continue that tech story with mike huckman. intel got upgraded today and helping the nasdaq high are by better than 1%. >> reporter: yeah, scott it was a market of moving call and if as you mentioned the nasdaq's at a 14-month high onlyate 2009 high up 1.1% or 26 points right now and also have microsoft shares trade ath a 52-week high. up 0.8%. amazon.com up 160% or so, so far this year. adding another 3.5% today with the investors thinking that that snowstorm might have pushed more people online to do their holiday shopping. the intel call, warclays upgrading to the equivalent of buy. that is moving the whole semiconductor chip industry, the philly index up 2.1% and it's not just health care reform capitol hill that is moving health care-related stocks but five deals, five deals in one morning all affecting biopharma

stock. aventis taking out chattem for a nice premium there. the generic drug giant hooking up with ogxi. why is ogxi 20.5% lower up 666% this year so obviously investors were hoping for a takeoff and selling off on that news today. we've got pfizer partnering with tiny anthersys up 144%. well off of its highs the day. we've got glaxosmithkline partnering. up 5.5%. eli lillying partnering. who could be next? jon najarian said earlier on "power lunch dwhats he sees unusual activity in the shares of biogen. i'm not vouch for them i'm telling you what dr. j. said and stock up is 2.2%. genzyme is becoming cheaper. put a $48 target on it but

already its surpassed that level. that nonetheless the nasdaq biotech index up 1.3%. go down bertha at the nymex. >> reporter: thanks very much, mike. basically the story today was the dollar. we've had energy start the day off stronger but as the dollar firmed around midday it became a sell-off in commodities, particularly hard-hit gold. it had been pressing below -- pushing below $1,100 an ounce for the last three sessions and today it closed below there for the first time since november 6th. number of traders looking for this kind retracement. a 50% retracement from the highs. overall, precious metals were lower. but we did get copper bucking the trend on -- following along with stocks on the expectations of better bemand and better economic recover ne2010. oil, though, as it expired, we the january contract expiring today did close lower on the session. we were lower across the crude curve so we'll start with a

lower february starting tomorrow. the big news tomorrow of course opec's meeting in angola. not expected to make an announcement with regard to output but perhaps an announcement with greater compliance. expect a lot of jawboning to come out of angola. energy, overall, closing lower on the day, despite the forecast for golder weather. maria, back to you at nyse. >> bertha, thanks very much. talking about rate hikes, what to look for in 2010, inflation regulation and asset bubbles. steve liesman is doing just that. the federal reserve has a lot on its plate heading into the new year and steve liesman now in chicago where he spoke exclusively to the president of the chicago federal reserve. steve, over to you. >> reporter: maria, thanks very much. charlie evans the federal reserve bank president from chicago saying 2010, likely to be a better year than 2009. growth between 3% and 3.5% is his expectation. though, he expects it to be a little bit choppy. unemployment may tick up maybe 10.5% before it starts to come

down and come down relatively slowly. that he says will give the fed an opportunity to remain on hold for an extended period. easy monetary policy and very specific in our interview about what extended period means to him. >> well, also the statement says that policy will be low for an extended important. i've said before, to me, that seems like three to four meetings and next meeting we will evaluate that again. i don't see an urgent need to recalibrate. we're currently looking at our exit strategies and all of the policies that can be applied when we need to adjust our balance sheet. and we'll do that in a timely fashion. >> reporter: three to four meetings, six weeks a meeting is probably four to six month. take us into june before we get some recalibration by the federal reserve. one reason why evans is so -- is so confident in that outlook, he feels like the fed can be on hold that long is because of the inflation outlook, which he says will come down from here. >> inflation expectations seem anchored and core inflation's

come down, percentage point over the last year, which is really unusual. and there's such resource lack in the economy that that's diminishing the traject reeve inflation. i would say over the next couple years. >> reporter: he's pointed out that inflation come down a full percentage point which is a very unusual occurrence. maria, take a look at reach-in here, the federal reserve district of chicago here. take be a look at the unemployment rates and how all over map they are, michigan 15.1, all the way to iowa at 6.7%. it's a very interesting place which benefited from the surge in commodity prices and some of the export surges that have gone on as well as being really heavily hit by the manufacturing downturn that hit the auto sector so that's the economy essentially that charlie evans would be commenting on when he goes into the fomc meeting and probably one the reasons that he ends up being in the middle of road because he's got a district economically is in the middle of the road. >> that's very interesting particularly what has gone on in iowa. steve liesman with the latest there. talk about what this all means to your investments and

the economic backdrop for us all and bring in brian daley. sales trader at conoco securities and eric ross managing partner at watch harbor asset management. gentlemen, always nice to have you on the program. welcome. so what about steve liesman's just talking about in terms of the challenges for the federal reserve for 2010? what's the risk for the stock market going into 2010. >> i think the risk for the stock market is if the fed comes in aggressively or more aggressively than expected and starts hiking rates sooner than expected and then we'll see this risk-taking in the equity market wound a little bit but a slim chance that will happen in early 2010. >> i was going to say how is the fed going to telegraph. whether it's from bernanke or other fed speakers saying it's not going to be anytime, anytime in the very near future so doesn't the market have a great chance, at least over the next six months, eric, of going higher? >> i think it does, definitely. think that rate hikes will be pretty minimal event in back half of 2010. i think looking at 2010. the worries that we have are really the rest the world start

to look apart. the euros have a little worry and worry of the asset bubble. some investors may pull back in the emerging markets but in the u.s. stocks are going higher this year. >> what about other asset classes, gold take a hit today? what about oil? some am of these commodities that have been the story of 2009? >> if you are not raising rates and continue to see the dollar go lower, most of these commodities going up and rather playing commodities than gold, it is an inflation play and a dollar play. >> the dollar index has been up for eight straight days. how do we know that this is not the beginning of a longer term trend rather than just a short-term trade? >> really what gus trying to judge right now, are we starting longer term bullish trend on the dollar, or is this just a break on the overall downturn in the dollar? clearly in a downward trend in the dollar. >> you're sitting on the sales trade desk so you're seeing the flow. what are you seeing in terms of the flow, where's the

conviction, movable and is it sustainable? >> light of the portfolio managers that we trade for going into year-end are not wanting to sell long position. they're buying puts, selling calls and i think that's a good bullish indicator where they think 2010, at least where it will start. and as we roll into 2010 i think that earnings will still come to the focus, very stock-specific in picking your stocks and your investments and it's going to be a show-me type market. >> eric uclearly like the commodities based on the fact that you think that the dollar will weaken but where else you are putting -- where is the smart money going to go specifically the first part of the year? moot mid-january's actually going to be very good, better than people are expecting and i think that technology the lead the pack there. i think that's surprising people on the upside. i think that the holiday season sales have actually much better february expected. pcs particularly into asia and i think that will continue with the guidance into the first quarter. that's above and beyond what i think the rest of the economy's seeing. >> i think one of the bing things too is once you get into the second half of 2010, not only the prospect of higher

interest rates, you have more difficult earning's comparisons as well that come into play. >> how about the commercial real estate? another issue second half, right? >> a good point. tech stocks received big demand on the conference trading right now but people will be very focused on how the quarterly reports come from both the top line revenues and the bottom line earn. beating them over the last quarter and recently, as oracle last week, but we've got to see more of that as we go through 2010. >> what do you want to avoid here? >> i'm scared of housing in general. anything that's really selling to main street. so financials, home builders, lumber that type of thing that worriesy. >> i thinkat brings a good performance. the perform achbts home builders recently lacking this rally that we've seen of late. >> i was going to say, anybody like retail here with the holiday shopping season? >> retail i think is going to be better than people expect so this holiday season and with the slowdown as much as people had thought and i think that in january you'll start to see guidance for better -- as the economy expansyou'll see retail expand faster with the economy with it. >> very much choppy situation there for retail this holiday

season so far since thanksgiving anyway. gentlemen, thank you. great conversation appreciate it. >> thanks so much. >> have a great holiday and see seen. brian, eric, see you soon. meanwhile, we've got 45 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day in this holiday-shortened week. markets closed earlier on thursday, closed on friday. dow jones industrials up 82. nasdaq up 11 right. >> you santa claus may be arriving early today but it's been a big deal for deals in the biotech industry. up next discuss whether more deals are on the horizon and what company ares biggest takeover targets? >> plus, how dulike that snow this weekend scott. >> like this. >> snowstorms battering the east coast and forcing many retailers to close early. >> and after the bell this decade is on pace to be the worst ever for stock owners. is there a new investing trend emerging or is this a tremendous buying opportunity? some answers today 4:00 p.m. eastern. but first here's where the action is on this monday afternoon on wall street, the most heavily traded stocks at nyse.

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>> reporter: hi, folks. i'm matt nesto with the realtime closing flash. have you seen city national today. it's number one stock in the russell 1000. up 15% in a single day. and this, it's after it's been upgraded to market perform bmo capital, they think that the fdic assisted acquisition of imperial capital is going to be acreedive. add to their earnings next year. so buy the bank that buys the failed bank and you will do well, that appears to be the recipe. cyn is the ticker. $2.4 billion market cap. scott, back to you. >> okay, matt, thanks so much. big day for biotech. four deals today alone in that sector. and aventis is forking out $9.4 billion for chattem first foray into the u.s. into the countermarket while other three licensing and partnering deals involving pharma pharmaceuticals, glako smithkline and eli lilly. as we head into 2010 can we

expect more deals in the pyle line? biotech analyst at credit suisse. equity research analyst at standard & poor's. guys, good to you have with us. stephen, start with you, this is a classic, purchase marriage, right? you've got these big pharma companies sitting on a lot of cash. you've got these smaller companies that have the drugs. they've got the research. they don't make much money. why not come together? >> well, we think that these deals are going to continue into 2010 and beyond as the pharmaceutical industry gets closer to their patent cliff. we estimate that the large pharma industry is facing patent expires between over $100 billion between 20 lech and 2013 so as an attempt to get ahead of this patent cliff to try to broaden their pipelines and trying to get ahead of the curve. we think in 2009 there, have been more deals like the ones reported today where there have been more on the licensing side and the partnering side rather than flat-out acquisitions. we think that as the patent

cliff gets closer for pharma we think that -- we probably see more deals in terms of acquisition companies. right. michael, stephen's painting really the perfect case on a number of fronts. first off, what i said is that, really, it's a marriage -- a perfect marriage, if you will, but it's also by a necessity. because you've got a lot of key drugs coming off of that exclusivity for big pharma. >> that's right. actually i couldn't agree more with what he just said. we did a piece out in september looking at the pharma companies and what they're going to look at next after this big wave of mega deals. i think the next natural move is to go smaller cap in some of the smaller cap, both acquisitions and like we've seen today, partnering deals. it really is a natural marriage. we've seen a lot of that in the past and i think it's going to continue through 2010. >> right. stephen, why of biotech stocks underperformed the broader markets, specifically over this past quarter? i mean in the underperformance, it's fairly stark when you compare it to the other sectors. >> yeah, we think that a lot of -- especially among the large

cap, i think a lot of companies -- amongs large cap space -- have skbom their own issues pretty much lately. we've seen manufacturing issues come into play, we've seen some poor bye line performance from some of the larger companies so we think weighing on valuations of the large cap players recently, but really over the course of the year, the large cap biotech space has underperformed which we also attribute to just the uncertainty over health care reform. there's been a lot of uncertainty as to what form the legislation was going to take in terms of the introduction of biologics, thanks of that nature and just a lot of uncertainty that i think the market we've poised for rebound wants clarity as it enters market. >> yeah, michael painting case here for perhaps an outperformance for 2010 for all of the thanks we just mentioned. >> i think that is right and i think if you look at what the actual legislation is look likely to pass, its ilpact on biotech it could be similar. the biosimilar or the pathway for generics and it looks like a

brand-friendly type of legislation with up to 12 years of exclusivity is a leading candidate so i do think once that lifts you add on the m&a and the partnering deals that we've just talked about and other key things that i think that we'll see in 2010 is a period of innovation and product innovation. a lot of new products coming out that represent real breakthroughs in medicine, whether it's amgens, osteoporosis, hepatitis compound for vertex and issues that are going to late-stage trials and data next year. >> yep. >> so i think look ath poise for a really good year for biopharmaceuticals in general. >> michael, who are the potential, then, takeover targets and who is going to be doing the shopping? and i guess carl icahn who is involved now with what, biogen, amy len, genzyme, a shopping list perhaps. >> on the larger cap side. some of the names that i like one of the ones that's very similar to one of the partnerships announced today,

incii incyte, an oral rheumatoid arthritis drug. the amount of revenue pharma has to find a company called the, ticker lxan, a product on its own marketing globally that's currently $400 run rate and we think upwards of $0$800 million flus they gedindications. another one on the target and like i mentioned hepatitis c is a big space where a lot of dealmaking. vertex pharmaceuticals currently in the lead with their product to lap rivierand it's still discussed. it still owns the full u.s. rights and although its partner, j&j have some the ex-u.s. rights. >> stephen iwould venture to guess naw must have european companies libbing their chops at prospects of weaker dollar betting on any acquisitions they may make. >> sure. i think over the near term the dollar's shown some strength but really as alluded to earlier it looks like the trend for the

dollar long term is still on a downward slope. >> yeah clearly eight days is not -- we're not talking about the prospects of deals based on what the dollar obviously has done over eight sessions. >> right. so we see european companies still taking advantage of the favorable foreign exchange trends. also including the companies in japan are getting more involved of m&m&a, u.s. companiesa well d we think that the foreign exchange environment had something do as well with roc roche's play. >> guy, thanks so much. michael, steven, good to you have here. in all of these deals that we're talk about today pfizer did a deal with anthersys for its stem cell therapy. so a ton of activity in this day alone in the biotech space. >> yeah and the entire quarter it's been health care and biotech really dominating in terms of m&a flow. >> yeah and the funny thin is over the quarter you've had health care stocks themselves be the best performers and biotech has underperformed the overall

market so have to see if that trend will change. >> really interesting. >> early next year. what do we have here? we have about 35 minutes to go here on wall street before the bell rings. the dow holding onto gains off of their best levels, certainly burks nonetheless an 84-point gain. health care, as i mentioned, tech, financial, commodity stocks. >> so when you come into a holiday-shortened week usee the rally up 100 points, wake up to a strong market uask is it sustainable? does this move up legs? that's what we will check when we come back after this break. looking at market higher and we are questioning whether this will continue into the new year? take a look at bond market and where the interests are.

welcome back. pretty good market today with the dow jones industrial average up 82 points as we've been telling you. joining us for more on today's market and see into 2010 alan valdez. gentlemen, always nice to see you. thank you for joining us. what do you think about today's market? given the nact we are in a holiday-sho holiday-shortened week. a lot of people are taking off this week. what you are seeing? >> most of my traders are gone for the week, actually gone for the year. they've already closed up, don't want to take the risk in the last two weeks. have locked in their profits, or their losses, and that's it but that said we've got good volume today. >> not bad at 700 million shares

when we only have 30 minutes to go so you do think that there is conviction, then in it market on the buying side? just not machines? >> right and i think a lot has come to the health care sector too. when that vote was cemented yesterday, basically the vote's done. i think that put cement -- a direction in the health care and seen a lot of money go today. >> terry, what do you think? >> my biggest problem is that the dow's range 60% without a serious correction. i think the trend has stayed intact on every down move which is bringing vestige back into the marketplace with some confidence. my problem is economic pothole ahead. i think that we've run ahead of the gamut here and yet the correction doesn't seem to be imminent. i'd be concerned that the market took a dive probably into the first quarter because i think that january's going to be a strong month as well. i don't think that market is ready to give up ground this second. traded last week and the week before between 10250 and 10500 and just a sideways move is what the market needs.

>> it sounds like you would like to see a sell-off and that would give you more conviction to actually buy? >> i think that's true. and i think that you lay out case that the fed's done a great job and you know superficially keeping the dollar lower, bringing demand for our goods overseas in play which has taken the burden off of u.s. consumer in trying to bring back this consumer. >> what are the trends that you are looking for in 2010? for example, alan you had commodities on fire in 2009. is that a play you want to be exposed to on the equity side, in raw materials? s >> i think that the trends will stay with the dollar. watch the dollar, watch commodities, watch gold, watch, in stocks, i think until they start to raise interest rates that's going to be the play unless you see the retail customer come back. he hasn't showed up so wondering to see if he will come back in january/february but if not i think that you stay with that dollar trend. >> you turn on the television and see these ads for gold, they are trying to reach out for individuals, you wonder what that means when a market which

is up as much as they are up trying to reach out to investors trying to lure them in, what does that tell you about the move? >> a little dicey. >> what are your customers avoiding here? financials? retail? what are they looking at as far as worry pots in in economic. >> i think that the worries in the financial sector have kind of subside. keep angeye on some these secondaries that are out there and see if that supply side will put a damper. >> a lot of supply companies. >> yeah a big supply issue. so -- and i like the move that the treasury had last week. when way this said citigroup get ties certain price we will not play. so that might change the confidence level of a lot of those financial people but right now, like alan, most of my players have gone and been gone for a while. i think there a lot of the volume that you have seen today is the high-frshs traders that go back and forth. >> well, that's an important 90 it is. >> great stuff with you. terry, alan. have a happy holiday. terry and alan joining us. we've got about, what, 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. and we've got a market that is holding onto the gains going into this final stretch. dow jones industrials up 80

points right here and nasdaq composite strong with a gain of about 11. take a short break and your best bets into 2010.

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it's $93.50 a share. up 34% premium to friday's closing price. now this deal makes sanofi's the world's fifth largest consumer health care company. it gives it access to popular brands like gold bond and icy hot. heavy machinerymaker, bu cyrus. and general motors named former microsoft cfo chris liddell the new chief. >> u.s. stock markets are going down in the books posting the worst decade in history. today's "fast money" final call we will tell you where to place your bet as we approach the new year. zach karabell and a "fast money"

contributor is with us now. >> hey, scott. >> get to the "the wall street journal" op-ed in a second because i do want to hit there. what do you foresee taking place let's say if the first half of 2010? are we going to continue these gains that we've seen? >> yeah and by the way, it's good to remind people about the other washout of the 2000s which i think should now be officially be called the zeros, not the odds. and i think that says that you could have a lot of strength in the equity markets in the coming year or years. and still have very modest valuations. meaning, it was so bad relative to the highs of the march of 2000 that there's a lot of room to roam. >> right. >> and i would say basically for the next six months what's likely to work is what's been working. and we could discount a january effect. i wouldn't be surprised if you saw some healthy profittaking in the first two, three weeks of january, especially given the past few months, but that would be a really good time to get into working, in tech, in

industrials, some of the specialty retail. i would be really careful of health care. it's had a nice pop based on the bill. >> i ask you the question and the context that i did breaking up, say, 2010 in the first six half to the last 1/6 half because things are uncertain as you get to mid 2010 albeit the fed, interest rates and inflation and everything else. >> yeah and that's the just the trading reality for the past year is going to be even more so in the coming years, which is you can't just buy something in january and go to sleep, or you know basically make in a year a two-year sale. something that you will have to continually revisit whether it is based on the variables that you have talked about and no such thing as buy a stock, hold onto it for years because you think it's a good company. maybe a good company maybe a lousy stock. >> give me some picks of where you like you? just said that you like technology. i saw apple on the screen there. atheros. are we looking at a key wireless play, the smartphone play? that seems to me one of the huge

stories of 2010. >> right you've got everybody and their mother coming without a smartphone in 2010, zach. >> and of course apple coming out with its tablet device at some point in the spring comes, is no secret to anyone, and of course the effects of that are not something that you should zound. everything that apple's been launching has been a gamechanger from amazon's kindle and barnes & noble's device the nook, an appetite for these new tablets and i wouldn't in any way bet against apple to really change the nature of that particular experience. >> the only point i would say is that you know you have to be selective, right? not everybody is going to win that fight. >> right. >> so you better be selective in the stocks you pick. >> right, and that's why, you know, something like apple's been so distinctive and granted that's why its stock has done so well. but in the wireless world, you know there's room for a few winners in this. i don't think it's a rimm versus apple. there is clearly some room for that. maybe there's not room for nokia

to continue to thrive, right? so you're correct, and certainly not room for palm from all expectations. so, yes. >> let me just quickly get to the op-ed that you did in "the journal." give you props on that it's called the "global imbalance myth." basically making the point that these so-called global imbalances that may or may not have any role in the financial crisis. if we try to fix that, sort of speak, quote/unquote, fix that, we may overreach? >> yeah the essential point that i am trying to make is the global economy has never been balanced. so to try to create a balance that's never existed could be as destructive to a system that for all of its dysfunctions has prude to be able to correct and keep moving. that could be a real disaster. don't try to make reality conform to some academic or theoretical world that we want to deal in. deal with what you have. that story to become more prominent in 2010 and by the

way, to be a real challenge and even while global growth is real strong. >> zach, they call you the academic on "fast money." thanks for spreading the knowledge. zach karabell. coming up on "fast money" a breakout on retail stocks today. many investors are rejoicing but can it continue or time to lock in profits? plus the ceo of a company goldman sachs calls, one of the best comeback stories for 2010. melissa and the traders, maria, are live at 5:00. >>anwhile, we've got about 20 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. the dow jones industrial and the nasdaq hold onto pretty big gains. that wicked weather over the weekend speshlgsly here in the northeast forced many to home. will this send retailers up for shopping? answers on that key question in just a moment. coming up after the bell the federal reserve says it will keep interest rates low for an extended period. could the central bank actually raise rates sooner than expected? the impact on your investments. 4:00 p.m. eastern. to pursue the life you want,

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>> reporter: hi, folks. i'm matt nesto with the "closing

bell" realtime flash. work some magic here, do you see nokia here today? the stock opened up sharply lower, got kicked around in europe after fitsh downgraded its long-term rating from a-minus -- excuse me, to a-minus to "a." three cents, maybe with talk long enough maybe it will get back to even here today. also downgraded this morning at august to hold from buy. saying that their handset margin growth is going to slow and they won't be able to turn that around. it if you look at the stock, it's been struggling in december. down 6%. down 15% in the fourth quarter. and it is at a four-month low, regardless of where it wants to be to close today. so nokia, weak, scott with an otherwise strong technology market. back to you. >> all right, matt, thanks. and take a look now at how some of the most widely stocks are faring today let by alcoa. alcoa hit a new high today getting upgraded by morgan stanley, home depot is higher today as is walmart. retailers doing well today and

definitely those tex. hp is higher as is cisco systems. maria. so record snoefls for the u.s. east coast this weekend and also coincided with supersaturday. one the three crucial shopping days of the holiday season, sergeant for the retailers. the impact on the investors not huge with the s&p 500 retail index up about 1% so did the storm freeze out sales? joining us to talk about that is pammela quintanilla. managing director. and paul walsh senior vice president at atmospheric and environment research. good to have you on the program, welcome. >> hi, maria. >> hi, there. paul, you're a meteorologist who helps retailers to understand the impact on weather on sales. what you are seeing this holiday shopping season, and what did the snow, what kind of impact did the snow have. >> well, obviously it was very impactful and very dramatic, but ironically we had a super-saturday snowfall last year that was more impactful in terms of geography and timing, or so net we have an easier comp. so i don't see that this storm

is going to have a negligable impact on retail sales this year. >> pam, i know that you've been doing checks this weekend, what were your observations? >> i would tend to agree with paul. i started early in the day on saturday, hit two malls and the stores were definitely crowded early on saturday. i do think that the shoppers did get a bit concerned about the upcoming storm and began to clear out. probably around 3:00 in the afternoon. i was in the malls until 8:00 p.m., and by that time at least in new jersey, they were very empty. but doing some checks on sunday as well, i do think that shoppers came back out sunday afternoon once the roads were cleared. >> so bottom line, what, pammela, are you expecting out of the holidays in terms of retail? >> i think that retail did well this holiday season. and the retailers all had very lean inventories heading in. and even though obviously having a blizzard on super-saturday is not ideal, i do think that they'll manage to make it up especially there are several days left until christmas comes

and also have the online shopping opportunity. >> paul, what do you think? what are you expecting? >> i agree. i think that forecasting was good. i got to put a plug for the weather forecasters, and because of that a lot of people in the stores on thursday and even especially friday before the storm. we have an extra day this year compared to last year between super-saturday and christmas. and the weekend, while we may have a storm over christmas evening/christmas day, the weekend following christmas looks clear. so we may have a very big post-christmas shopping weekend. >> post-christmas? >> post-christmas. >> so who benefits from the post? is that an online story or is that across the board? >> i it's across the board especially if there's a lot of repo certificates given or gift cards given. >> pamela, do you agree with that and what are your investment ideas, the whole play behind this whole theme. >> sure definitely agree that. in regard to the gift cards a lot of retailers giving out gift card. most you cannot redeem until the 26th so that should get

customers back into the stores shopping. so i do think american eagle, for example, is one that's been giving a $10 gift card with every $50 purchase. we should see the customer coming back into the store and will be new merchandise in there for them to buy hopefully at full price. >> and so does the discounting go away after christmas, paul? give us a sense of what happens in terms of pricing and the leverage that retailers have. >> i think it depends on inventories, as pamela noted. and one of the advantages going into this holiday season is inventories have been very lean and this sort of game of chicken between retailers and consumer as it relates to price cuts. there may be pricing action there, but overall, i think that retailers are in pretty good shape. a lot better shape than last year where, by the way, the weather was a lot worse last year. >> that's an interesting point, yeah, actually. you are right, you forget at what weather was last year. pamela, categorize for us the winners and losers of the holiday so far. we've been talking a lot about online that they've really been

in the lead here, is that still the case? >> i think online is absolutely been a leader. people are very comfortable shopping online across all age groups, all spectrums. i do think though out of bricks and mortars a few leaders there as well. the customers are definitely looking for value. if you look at the company, say, new york & co., which is a value player in the marketplace, they've been offering discounts, like 50% off of the entire store, buy one get one 75% off. i think the customer's responding very well to those types of promotions even though they're out shopping this year versus last year where they may had been holding out tideier to their money naep want to spend but they want to see that they get a deal. >> so they really looking for value, once again. so in addition to the online players, you want to go for the value players? >> you want to go for perceived value. and i think that's a very fine line. it's not necessarily the value players because someone wants to have quality even if they are spending $100 on a shirt, they want to feel like that's really worth $100 and i may have been

paying $15 in years past. >> i see. >> so it's all about what they perceive is the value. >> paul, do agree, that? >> i do, i do. also in terms of a potential winners here just in the last few day, footwear retailers love snow. this is white gold to them so this last weekend with the snow that people have to schlep through it is good news for them. >> all right, great to talk you. thanks so much. >> okay, great. >> we appreciate it and happy holidays to you both. >> same to you, maria. ten minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. the dow jones industrial up right now 83 points. very much stabile situation going into the close, scott. >> absolutely. tech is on track, maria, for its best year in a decade. up next, matt nesto turns to the history books to see how tech and other key sectors perform after a really good year. rrrrrrr

>> reporter: as we wind down a wild but lucrative year in the markets. cnbc's matt nesto take a look back to see how hot sectors performed the year after their big run-up. matty, what's up? >> reporter: i'm digging out the frank sinatra. it was a very good year. another voice, folk, but i think that you probably recall the song. if you take a look at what's going on here, are we on the cusp of a heat wave? the market tend to be streakish. the performance over the past 15

years or so. these winning streaks tend to clum in clumps. winning sectsor this year 57% on a year to date basis, that technology sector. that's the best yearly advance it has seen since the 78% pop it put together in 1989. you ask yourself what did it do in the year 2000? it fell 40% as you can see here but the big learning story is what did it do prior to 2000? the run-up to '99 was one the best run-ups ever, a 700%, five-year rally that led up to that decline. so it's not necessarily applicable in isolation. if you look at the streakish situation. so we move on. there is the s&p 500, 23% year to date. best year since the 26% we took down in 2003 and that says, maybe we couldn't even take that little near-term record out. but what we're showing you here is the 95, 6, 7, and 8, 9 rally.

228% strong. the caveat here is again five consecutive years of that 2020%. all five years were 20% gainers back to back to back to back. you got. so '03 to '07 also five consecutive years for kum of 67%, not as dramatic, but again streakish is the word of the day. lastly, we go to individual stocks. check out american express, the darling of the dow this year, 120% higher so far year to date. beating 29 of its peers in that benchmark index. if it were to face the same tests in the s&p 500, you know where it would rank, 40th. so it all depends no n who play against, scott. >> matt, matt nesto thanks so much. up next coming back with the closing countdown on what is a pretty good day here. up 89 points on the dow, maria. notable highs, including alcoa

which got that upgrade talking about today. aetna and united health, new highs today. health care stock the best performers for the entire quarter. >> volume is not disappointing. i mean, it's basically what it has been the last several weeks. the financials doing well once again. that's certainly a leadership group on the upside today. so wei had a similar market today than we've had in the several week leading up to you holiday even though you would expect that this would be some time vacation week. >> sure and the interesting things also that we've been talking about throughout the show is the fact that the dollar is up, right, and then the market is up as well. so you wonder if that's some sort of long-term trend here or a short-term trade, as i've been putting to some our market guests as well. >> certainly has been a really good trade on the upside. we'll take a short break and then after the bell after the holiday shopping season winds down take a look at how holiday sales are shaping up. which company are some the winners. boss: y'know, geico opened its doors back in 1936

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