tv Mad Money CNBC December 23, 2009 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> going out of business and he's nuts. they know nothing. >> welcome to requested mad money". other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. it is my job to entertain and educate you. call me. people ask me how can i be so bullish about tech. why am i not a doom and gloomer like everyone else? what makes me so sure that tech
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isn't going fall off a cliff? isn't that the perceived wisdom? i hear it four or five times a day. besides the fact that the nasdaq rallied huge today, up 17 points, not too shaby given the gain of a measly two points. give than we are getting to a time it is really that moment when you are supposed to sell sell sell tech stocks. especially after nasdaq's remarkable 44% run this year. why do i think the first quarter will be so strong? and the stocks are still worth accumulating? the answer is pretty simple ladies and gentlemen. because i did the home work. you want to know where i believe in tech? follow along with this letter
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tale of -- or per happens in a nod to my buddy pal and co-star, robert downey jr., this is more a case of sherlock holmes style deduction. i still marvel at how well bobby and i worked together on the set and how i got that stark industry's baseball cap out of it. it must have been a huge part of the $500 million the movie made at the box office. consider my dear watson that in last week avnet, micron, and more, they all did well. the last two we heard were our own show. another reason why it is important to pay attention to our ceo interviews.
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let's go over the details, the clues if you will, that make me so certain that tech isn't zone. in fact you have only caught a little. my view is couple together from everything from trade magazines. from from the conference calls of companies. which builds all sorts of products for all sorts of tech companies like this kind of thing. they assemble this. as well as avnet, micon, it is pieced together from analysts' reports of all of these. plus an upgrade of corning, and emc, the big server company. along with work in new categories like green. all of these companies have now made green an important issue. some an actual line item. they are actually breaking it out.
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i want you to consider a jigsaw puzzle that when finished spells out buy tech. it is from tvs to notebooks to net books to servers to smart phones to video games. what else is out there that is electronic are these pieces of data not covering? this time i am not going tell you to sell sell sell. not only just to hold but buy
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buy buy. until you have enough to say hallelujah. this is from the dram exchange bull ten. the kind of memory that is used in all kinds of computer devices. if you crack open a computer, drams will flood out of it. that is so unusual. the research said that it has improved significantly for amc. i think when you look at the trajectory it is getting stronger by the week. clue, the third.
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micron on its call just last night. a huge chip company said that d ram prices are up. i am flabbergasted it is so big. there were flat guidance rather than down guidance. and that's because of demand for pc's and smart phones. if servers are doing well and everything seems to be getting a boost. so in other words, everything that goes into micron, everything that micron goes into is selling better than i thought. by the way this is the first time, number seven, that micron has been profitable in three years. this is driving a lot of tech that people don't understand. the fourth clue? on his conference call yesterday, the assembler said
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computer and storage is strong into q1. where? what businesses? industrial instrument tags. medical sector up 8%. consumer demand up 27%. digital home office and display up 22%. green technology, they broke it out as coming on strong. the company issued guidance for three times what they had previously been looking for for next year. why does this company matter so much? how about because they make things for cisco, phillips, bp solar and sun power? isn't that good news for all of the other companies? what is good for them is better for their clients. clue number five is arrow electronics.
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especially. again, maybe you never heard of arrow but this is a company with 800 suppliers and get this, 130,000 customers. it's a hugely important link in the tech chain that tells us a lot. the sixth positive clue. after net. on its analyst kay last week. it said it is accelerating growth. i always pay attention to them when i was running my $500 million hedge fund. north america is starting to catch up to asia. these guys are big distributors. among 100,000 customers. the ceo told us strong demand for smart phones and more.
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another chip company released earnings. it said that the industrial and auto business were very strong. but they acknowledged not as strong as other players. clue number nine, leading to my bullish tech conclusion. this morning, a very smart firm put out a note on sandisk. say they are running at full capacity for the memory chips that you put in things like cameras, small computers, hand helds, and cell phones. this is unbelievable to me. pricing should be going down. it is post christmas. but it is going up. demand after the holidays has always been weak. not this time. that's huge. and if you don't know sandisk.
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any time you need more memory for your camera? those are made by san disk. and corning is the biggest monitor and tv screen maker. the final clue? in the last month micro chip technology and national semi all said that business is stronger. especially communications think the mobile internet tsunami are on fire. sometimes it is hard for me. i have been trading since 1979 and i have seen patterns over and over again. you are supposed to have a big drop off in business after december. we are seeing acceleration. that is extraordinary. none of this should be happening if history is any kid.
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the strength is tech is something that is not supposed to happen. when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbably must be the truth. this may be improbable but there is really only one conclusion. it should be the opposite. so tleez clues confirm the bullish outlook. they put the lie to the conservatives. some would say the bearish outlook from best buy which is why i think that best buy should be bought agretsdsively. if you do the home work. for some it is boring. it took about ten hours to prepare this one piece, it creates an indelible ill impression based on the clues that the first quarter will be huge for tech. selling tech is nuts. i will say the next quarter might be the biggest first quarter for tech in a decade.
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i say buy buy buy. let's go to arthur, long time caller in new york. arthur? >> caller: boo-yah to ya, jim. >> what do you got? >> caller: great gifts. my favorite book is diary of a street addict. since diamonds are a girl's best friend what do you think of blue nile? >> the company is on fire. people seem to like jewelry very much. they are not suspicious, they are very comfortable with it. sit the biggest short squeezes i have ever seen as people continue to believe that blue nile has to collapse. it does not have to. when you do your home work, this market is elementary. don't be talked out of it by the
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they sayers that come on the tv shows. they are wrong. the homework says they are wrong. buy tech, don't sell it. >> coming up, did the housing data was so good why is jim so hot under the collar? find out on the outrage of the day. dividend and conquer. we have three brand new dividend plays. could they be the gifts for your portfolio that keep on giving? how do your stocks stack up? we make sure your portfolio makes the grade. all coming up on "mad money."
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me with anger. not an outrage of the day but perhaps the outrage of the whole year? have you ever noticed that there are endless caveats. home sales prices brighten. new data on home sale prices provided fresh signs of stabilizing housing market. but a continuing flood of foreclosures and the withdrawal of government life support threaten that trend. here are some butts. prices are still down. how about this one? the home tax credit. if it moved away that would be the end of the rally. home mortgages are low because the fed says they will start going up. number five, foreclosures continue to occur. reporters use these endlessly. pundits use them endlessly.
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we get hit with the. as the exist iing sales dwind i. decline dramatically as the banks are not showing an increase in bad loans happening for mortgages as housing starts stay low, meaning new supply is not being added as the hardest hit areas, the inland empire, the southern and western part of florida, phoenix and nevada have bottomed months ago as the tax credit had been extended indefinitely. since the summer. as the per acceptabilitiage increase in foreclosures has gotten smaller each hont. and even as in many areas, homes have increased in value over the months. that means nothing to this
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group. the same misinterpretation happened just this morning. we got weaker home sales and the press and pundits went nuts. they were screaming. they were just screaming that things must have really gotten bad again. no. the home builders are simply building fewer homes. they expect to sell fewer homes. you will sell fewer new homes if you build fewer new homes as you can't make money on them because housing prices are too cheap to justify the expensive cost of construction. plus the home builders thought the tax credit was going away. this is elementary and the market recognized even though the press didn't or refused to believe it. take my word for it. because again, it's another sign that we are in equilibriuequili.
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i have got ask why this happens. why isn't there some recognition that things are better when they clearly are. president obama should ask that, too. sit a great question to ask him. it is a great question for him to ask. what has to happen before they wake up and smell the stablization in housing? do we need to wait until the following story occurs? home prices are back on the rise because there are not enough homes? if you wait that long what price do you think you would have to pay for home dee ppodepot. lowe's? what price would you have to pay for bank of america or wells fargo. you can bet they would be a whole lot higher than they are now. if you wait for that story, which is obviously going occur someday, you will miss out on
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more gains than you already have since all the negatives started turning positive on june 30th of this year. but four, the other side. it has already caused people, these kinds of things have caused people to miss doubles and triples. it will make you miss if you take your queue from the press as we inch towards a point where we go from seeming ridiculous to being totally absurd. there is not a news outlet that doesn't do this. our job is to anticipate a trajectory, not wait until the trajectory is clear. we can't wait if you want to make money. if, on the other hand, we want to be cautious and prudent and wait for the all clear, that's fine, too.
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but do not expect to make profits. where do i think we should do this? i suggest taking a cue from smokey and the bandit, for the money, for the glory, for the fun, but mostly for the money. every single story could have a negative attached to it. demand could go away. union pacific has good loading numbers but the good numbers could go away. coke keeps turning around overseas. but there could be a soda tax. amazon may have a better than expected quarter but it could have a worse quarter. is there any value in that? you never can be wrong. it must be so great to never worry about being wrong. nothing will ever come back to haunt you. no editor is ever going ask why did you caveat this? people watch and listen or read these stories to make money, not just to learn.
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no one ever considered these misdirection even though that is kpangtly what these are. we will change to a far more rigorous venue. we will talk about football. the backs instead of lining up in an i-formation spread thems with the quarter back in shot n shotgun. it could be a run play in disguise or it might be a pass play. the defensive coordinator, he can't say to himself, you know what? it might be a run. or it might be a pass. he has to make a decision and gamble. a fan can look and guess. a coordinator has to calculate what he knows and what he is looking at. he has to determine whether he has seen this pattern before or whether it is a phoney or
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whether it is the real thing. if he guesses wrong he can't come to the sidelines and say darn it all coach, it looked like a run. but it could have been a pass. it's not valuable. it is lewd chris. just like the articles about housing. they are spectator pieces, not informed opinion. -- where do we ak cement when there is no money on the line
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for many like football and simply suspendry gor and judgment? i will give you reasons. laziness. fear of being wrong and no penalty for being wrong. i like it when there is a penalty. i think the information gets more valuable. in football coaches who get it wrong get driven out and they don't return. i don't expect to see charlie weis on the sidelines any time soon. you know that i am criticized endlessly for my picks and taking a stand which hardly anyone else does in this business. critics, does it ever occur to you that i have not been thrown out? the guy that will throw me out is me when i retire do you think those people who grade me are idiots? do you think they are dumber than the alumni and athletic directors at notre dame?
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i don't think so. people should have to take stands on air, on blogs, in papers. they shouldn't be able to get away with on the one hand it looked like pass and then like run. i regard it as a cop out and valueless. they cannot hide behind their journalism cards and make no judgment. just on the one hand or the other which is an analysis it just happens to be wrong. here is the bottom line. it will be my mission in 2010 to come down and come down hard on these people. i will give them the business. just as hard as i came down on myself when ever i made a mistake. i am calling them out for the caveating and money losing misdirection plays. none of them will like it except for those of you who want help and you are the ones we do this show for anyway.
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merry christmas. let's nail them next year. coming up, our high yielding series continues. cramer has three brand new dividend plays. can they be the gifts that will keep on giving? and are you ready to get charged up? cramer goes electric on an all new hyper active lightning round. and later, how do you stocks stack up in a mystifying market? we make sure your portfolio makes the grade. all coming up on mad money. boss:hey, glad i caught you. i was on my way to present ideas
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about all the discounts we're offering. i've got some catchphrases that'll make these savings even more memorable. gecko: all right... gecko: good driver discounts. now that's the stuff...? boss: how 'bout this? gecko: ...they're the bee's knees? boss: or this? gecko: sir, how 'bout just "fifteen minutes could save you
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you wouldn't be responsible with your money. you want to be prudent. you don't want to take too many chances but sometimes prudence can be the worst fork of recklessness and disguise. as money flows relentlessly out of funds. despite the rally since march of this year. i know you are trying to protect your money and that's right. but when you sacrifice your stocks for bonds and cds, you are settling for returns that are too low. you might as well just invest in
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the first national bank of sealy. that's why all week we have been running a series in praise of what we should be buying if you are really looking for prudence in safety and income. the companies that not only pay dividend, but also have a history of raising them. so what have we mentioned so far? general mills, pfiser, waist management and gm. it is part of our crusade/anti-low yielding bonds and cd jihad. trying to cover all of my religious bases. i have three more. i would have made it two so you would have eight in total. hanukah is over already, though. these stocks are gifts that keep
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on giving. i think they are great for the holidays. and with the help of their tax blessed status, remember the income is just 15% lower than ordinary income they give you yields that are much hoo higher than the 3.75% you get from treasuries. or the puny 1.7% you will get from cds. the painful higher tax rates that people keep rolling their old higher yielding cds into. don't expect the fed chair and man of the year ben better late than never bernanke. and he is the guy i dedicated my book to. to ben, better late than never, bernanke. he will keep rates low. he will not give you incredible bargains here.
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stocks give you more than income but give you the possibility of upside in the form of capital appreciation. not to mention the fact that their yields can increase not just because the stocks might go down but courtesy of hikes. we have emerson electric and that has been a company that has been among my favorite for ages. we have got -- and i recommend that as one of my 12 in the book. you have to buy the book to get the rest. and you also have nucor and coca-cola. this is the biggest known brand. these are all better than cds and bonds. these are all household names. you know them. i do the home work on them.
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let's start with emerson. the yield is much, much lower than it was. it is a mid yield now. it is the best run, most flexible, most innovative company out there. it has got everything. industrial automation. conserving energy. there is the green business. power transmission equipment. plain old motors and controllers. company gets 55%. 75% of the business linked to global infrastructure. this is the definition of recovery play. as we learned when it reported its most recent quarter to remember, many of the businesses have started to improve. and don't forget emerson was smart. it cut costs dramatically. so it is more profitable than anyone could have dreamed and we can only imagine how much more
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profitable we will be when the global economy gets better. the dividend? company just boosted its dividend this november for the 53 consecutive year. remember you want to reinvest. you know what? that turns into 89% if you assume dividend reinvestment. that's great. how many times have you heard that today? what a bad decade. it was not bad if you owned emerson. keep your eyes peeled. how about nucor. in addition, these were suspe suspended because of the slow down. nucor is one of the lower cost steel producers in the industry.
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infrastructure projects and disspite miserable chinese dumping of steel, nucor is still there. special dividend. i expect it over the last ten years while the s&p is down, how did nucor do? you wouldn't be -- you wouldn't be whining about the s&p. earnings should cover the payout. these earnings projections could be too low so i think the dividend is so short. if you want to collect the payment, the next date is this coming monday. third and final, coke, serial, soda, 2.9%-year-ol yield. you got keep the jackie wilson
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in mind. coke will keep lifting its dividend higher and higher. the company is 50% market share of the world's carbonated soft drink market and 44% in the u.s. innovator. think coke zero, sprite green and the 7.5 ounce coke mini. as stronger earnings gets converted into weak green backs. company raised every year for 47 years, most recently in february. i think coke could raise its payout again. to paraphrase former icon, we want stocks that raise less corn and more dividend. that is not to say we dislike thing a stocks. you want income?
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want to put your money to work for you instead of having to work for it and giving it to cds? forget bond funds and cds and buy some of the great dividend raisers. consider emerson, nucorp, coca-cola when you make your ira contribution for 2009. michelle? california. >> caller: happy holidays. >> same to you. how can i help? >> caller: for high dividend stocks, i like a long term investment. it is a play on nat gas and they are expending their pipelines but i don't understand lps and whether they are appropriate and taxable or whether it is as safe as something like at&t? >> it is as safe as something like at&t. i never do this but i have to do it in this particular case. you do and i tend not to want to
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do this but you do need to speak to a tax advisor about the ramifications for you if you put them in your ira and understanding how much of that dividend you get cto keep. i never like to caveat but i have to. each case could be different. but that money, i think it is rock solid. all week we have been telling you not to let your money languish. let it work for you. coke, nucor and emer son electric. stay with those. stay with cramer. >> coming up, get instant access to the prodigy of profits on an all new lightning round. plus how do you stocks stack up in a mystifying market? cramer makes sure your portfolio makes the grade on am i diversified.
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i tell you whether to bye bye bye or sell sell sell. i do not know the callers before they call. my staff prepares the graphics on the fly? are you ready? it is time for the lightning round. i want to start with terry in california. >> caller: ho ho ho, happy holidays. >> i will give you a merry christmas boo-yah with everything i have. >> caller: amd has some hot cars. >> amd is a win. we have been reck minding it. when it got to six we still like it. and we still like it. however, sell sell sell. if you take that off you are playing with the house's money and that is our goal on "mad
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money". david in colorado. david. >> caller: boo-yah from snow country, jim. national has been paying dividend for 100s. it has dividend and gas. >> but the stock has appreciated that the yield is not that great so i would wait until the stock came down because it now has under 3% yield. that's not high enough for me when i look at a utility i need more juice. let's go to joe in illinois. >> caller: it's joe from chicago giving you a big boo-yah. this company had a big quarter, big earnings and a big increase in the annual outlook. do you see big things for big lots? >> we looked at big lots as part of our play of stocks that could do well and we rejected it. we were wrong. i let my personal experience
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with my own big lots on route 22 in new jersey color my thinking. that's classic bad investment and i admit it and i own it. the stock has moved up too much. however i have lost my right because i have been too wrong. i would like to hand this one off and say others know it better than i do. let's go to lars in california. >> caller: hey, jimmy, baby. >> what's shaking. >> caller: and a super charger boo-yah to you. >> charger boo-yah? jackson and rivers never let me down. they delivered. go ahead. >> caller: you are picking winners. i want to know what you think about alliance, aeb? >> all right. i like it very much. itry minds me of turner.
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it's good but ain't going get to the superbowl. i hear nothing but nice people say nice things about alliance and turner but beneath will ever get into the superer bowl. jerry in georgia. jerry? >> caller: ho ho ho, ya cramer. >> merry christmas boo-yah to all. what's up. >> caller: my stock traded for between 44 and 46. when is qualcomm going break out of its rut? >> maybe, maybe, maybe the most frustrating stock i own. it's killing me. it should be moving up. i am not giving up on it and i still recommend that it be bought. they are a winner, not a loser. let's go dixie in virginia. >> caller: merry christmas,
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boo-yah jim. >> merry christmas to you. >> caller: i am calling about sum. >> i have been disappointed in the fact that they eliminated the dividend but they have a new tough ceo. she is terrific. and i really feel, by the way, just so everybody understands this is one of the situations where it needed tough medicine. it is getting killed. the dividend was cut but i think that she should come on the show. do not pull the trigger. instead buy. and stick with cramer! trading's all about strategy. and strategy... is all about information. so i start my trading day... with td ameritrade's morning perspective. that's interesting...
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or, look at this... i can mine their weekly webcast for ideas. this is what i need. of course, ideas are just the start. so now i can drill down. heat mapping... heat mapping shows me where the money's moving. 2,500 stocks... one quick glance. cold... cold. hot! right there. look at this-- pattern matcher... pattern matcher spots technical patterns, automatically. wow, look at that. look at that head and shoulders right there. it's like pattern radar. pattern x-ray vision. plus, this amazing gadget... called the telephone. i can call td ameritrade anytime and talk trades, strategies. anything. that's where the action is. td ameritrade. built by traders for traders. announcer: trade commission free for 30 days plus get $100 cash, when you open an account. what is cloud computing? a cloud is a workload optimized, service management platform enabling... ...new consumption and delivery models. it's what? my cloud does email. lowers my energy bill. shares pictures. we collaborate on our cloud. i develop software in my cloud.
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best friend, your only free lunch. it's why we're playing "am i diversified?" let's go to matt in new jersey. matt, you're my first customer. what do you have for me? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. >> boo-yah. >> intel intc, bristol meyers bmy and att oil and gas, duke energy altria. >> duke energy is good, altria i praise that one. it hit a 20 yield today. that's good. they said they cut numbers. they did not cut numbers, they sold the me johnson.
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atp oil and gas. it's not my favorite. you know i prefer devin energy to that one. i think it's a better bet. intel, just bought this for my trust today. i've been waiting, just absolutely hamstrung because of my restrictions. you got a semiconductor, electricity, you have an oil company. i salute you, you're playing the game just perfectly. let's go to jim in connecticut. jim! >> caller: hey, jim cramer, merry boo-yah from connecticut! >> merry boo-yah right back at you. >> the nagry fluids chg, chevron, cvx, johnson & johnson jhj, am i diversified? >> look at this one here. conagra, we know all their fans,
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they're terrific. you go in a store, you'll see them hanging out. f chevron, i think that's good. att raised its dividend. i've been praising this stock. it's ripe, it's a great position to have. pfizer, i've just starrted to praise it because the dividend came back up having converted. j and j and pfizer are both pharmaceuticals. we have to throw one out and buy a diversified industrial, and may i suggest nucorp or emerson, two more serial dividend raisers. how about michael in south carolina. michael? >> caller: michael. got cpl, so southern company,
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mac matrix and gmi, general mills. >> you'll see why this is a hard one for me in a moment. the general mills, obviously. doing a great job, we love food stocks. southern company, dividend company, not bad. the real estate investment is doing pretty well. altria, you know i like that one. southern and cpl, this is a resilient utility. i want you to sell southern and i want you to go buy a health care company. why don't you pick up some wellpoint. and then merry christmas to all our players and all our callers. thank you very much.
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