good morning. we've called it. america's health care crisis, we decided. but the senate is set to convene within the hour for a vote on a bill to overhaul the system. show me the money, two more banks officially repay t.a.r.p. and the nation's pay czar green lights some compensation plans. the markets at this hour, again, u.s. equity futures pointing to a positive start after eeking out a small gain yesterday. traders looking for a traditional santa claus rally as "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ you better not watch you better not cry ♪ ♪ you better not pout i'm telling you why ♪ ♪ santa claus is coming to town ♪

>> good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm carl quintanilla along with joe kernen. becky is off today. the senate is preparing to add this highly anticipated vote on health care today. it's set to begin in about an hour. 58 democrats and two independent res expected to approve that measure. a simple majority is needed in the house. we'll begin with the health in january. 2 big includes different approaches on taxes, accord, and a complete government run historic plan. >> during the reconciliation, they're going to get involved. apparently they refer the taxing

the cadillac plan. >> as opposed to -- as the tax on just rich people. because they -- if you tax the cadillac plans, maybe that puts more cost control. apparently they're sensitive to the krit criticism that there's not enough cost control, it's just covering everyone. so that is something that they're going to be pushing. but i want to see what the house pushes for. you know, there's closed door meetings between pelosi and reed and others and the president's people. there's a lot of things that the house is not going to like about the senate and there's a time of things that the house would like to put in there that they won't get 60 votes for. but did you read -- i read that nelson, he no, no, no, no, no, no. the abortion -- they had that settled. it wasn't until you got to the 100 million to cover nebraska's -- whatever -- >> yeah, whatever is possible -- >> i can it's $200 million. >> whatever problems his home state would have in terms of

what additional they had to cover they had to promise him that. >> there were some scathi ining op-eds yesterday saying here is a guy who said, i have principals and they're totally for sale. >> and there's other pieces today that say every single state, every senator representing his state got something, got what he wanted to do this. so i guess that's the way it works. it's not the first bill that's been like that. >> no. that is what legislating is all about. >> bribery. >> yeah. let's get to capitol hill for more on that where john harwood can shed some light on how this process works so far and, john, what we night look at today. did you go anything, john? >> no. there is a little provision that i need to point your attention to. nebraska gets a bcs bowl game every single year in perpetuity.

>> what would be the score of that, john? >> well, it's going to be negative because they're not that good. and i don't think you can sell the ads and -- >> he's jocking, right? i can't even tell. >> they're the real cornhuskers. >> in this day and age, you have to tell me when you're being facetious. is that true? >> it is true that the political rhetoric gets more over the top every time the 100 million is real. the compromise, the messy compromises on abortion and on funding and usually funding is the more important issues, those are messy and they're out there. but the truth is, as you guys were just alluding to, horse trading, pork, stuff for individual stadz, this is an

important movement we're living through. every since the federal government assumed a larger role in the economic life of the country, in the regulatory life of the country, really starting the industrial revolution but kicked up to a significant degree in franklin roosevelt's presiden presidency. people have been trying to get what the senate is getting today and what the congress is ultimately likely to get in this new president's first two years in office. it's a remarkable achievement if they get it. it looks like they're on track to doing it and we're going to be toting up the costs, the benefits, the negatives of this for quite a long time. but you can expect that national health reform is going to be with us for a very, very long time as medicare, social security, other things that have been controversial social legislation in the past have been. >> at what cost, john? so much has been made of the rancor between republicans and democrats now. is that for real? and is it something that will get in the way of other issues as they bundle to the top? >> well, here is the thing. the rancor is real.

the rancor has always been there. think about the civil war. but what's happened is right now the most intense idea logical divisions in the country are precisely the same as the partisan division. it used to be you had a democratic party and a republican party that both had liberal, moderate conservative wings. you don't have that any more. you have a conservative party in the republicans, a tiny bit of people who could slip back and forth between the two. but those, these are really two intense disagreements. they want to stop it for conflicting reasons. they're going along with this because that's what their team is doing. there's some who have reservations. but when you really segregate the parties so that there's not much overlap, there's not much room for mixing up idealogically, there is what you get. >> yeah.

for those in this country who have prospered, john, this idea that the tax might fall to cadillac plans as opposed to a tax on the wealthy, is that good news for them? >> well, if you're an affluent american -- >> or in a union, because they don't want to tax the cadillac plans, either. >> well, right. but what ooipg i'm saying is if you're a wall street person, you like the senate bill better than the house. at the end of the day, the compromise is not going slap this 5% surtax on $500,000 or $1 million income. that's a political problem for barack obama. he would rather go with the cadillac plan. why? because a, it raises revenue. but b, it hepts helps him make the argument, this is going to control costs.

what they're going to have to go over is the objections of some of those unions saying, why are you taxing my plan? they can raise the threshold and say, yeah, it's not just a cadillac plan. you have to be a target carerra plan to get taxed. what will the house -- >> i don't know whether the target is called a -- i think the terrere is called the coup. john, what was my question? >> the ciu union? >> no. >> fireman's league? >> no. oh, yeah, what is the house likely to prevail on or will they just go quiet quietly off into the sun seen? i would get a complex at this point, but numbers are numbers. 60 is 60.

they can slow away from house votes, but they're going to have to basically make concessions on every issue that was important to them. >> well it's sort of like, joe, that other show what has a show on the nrng morning, they're going to have to lump it. >> the one about coffee, right? it's like starbucks. mocha joe, i know that show, yeah. >> the truth is, on the toughest issues, the senate is likely to win because they have less margin for error. and in truth, they're closer to barack obama and what his position is on this than the house. what is the house likely to win? i suspect that the house on having tougher builts and having employers who don't participate in the system, they might win. in terms of having a national exchange rather than the state exchange, perhaps larger subsidies to participate for individuals in the system. all of these are things where the house could do better. but because barack obama wants to argue that he is controlling

the costs, and on some of the other tougher issues like public opening, you at any time pass them in the senate. while a lot of the liberals are wining, ledgy laters have a choice. they can say, i tight the insurance kchser or they can hammer this around. >> roll call begins at 7:00 or we think that is when they might declare final vote? >> they have said this vote is scheduled for 7:00. but as you guys know, timing is slipped within the government. so somewhere within shouting dance of 7:00, they will start that vote. it will go quickly, people will head to the airports, fly out of town. obama will say something and will led to hawaii.

>> we are going to talk to you at some poicht, of course. my best wish is for an environmentally conscious nonadikdive gebder neutral celebration of the winter solstice practice with the most religious perzation of your choice whereby you practice. i just wanted to see that to you. >> i didn't hear vegan. >> i'm sorry. i forgot veganism. >> well, you got gender neutral in. >> and if it's -- >> the first thing he said to me this morning when i walked in the office, john. >> it's longer. i've actually got it long perpendicular but it's the -- >> i just want to make sure we go off the air at mid day because my kids in singling in chirch r church tonight. >> even admitting that is big.

thank you. >> we'll seal i again this morning, john. >> hi. >> how are you? >> julie has an early effect, but she's worse off than i am. >> but you still are feeling some of the -- >> a little bit. but not as bad as you. >> mine is getting -- i don't feel as bad. >> you sound nice and raspy. >> you like that, right, sort of a -- like a barry white? >> no barry white, thanks. >> really? yeah. you can keep that. all right. here are the economic releases. let's get serious. 8:30 eastern, weekly jobless claims. dur knowledge back seat, spejted to rise by .4%.

>> citi handed back $20 billion. the government still owns stock within the bank. treasury says the $164 billion in t.a.r.p. funds have been repaid too far. it says the taxpayers have set more than $before in profits. 2010 xrve pay packages allowing ken fine berg and others allowing up to 9.85 million. the gm package exceeds government limits for bailout firms and the pay czar is coming in, in fact, to cnbc yesterday. >> triegs to tie individual compensation to the overall situations of the company as reflected in the value of that stock.

>> so that is good news for gm, right? >> yes, some mak, too. they've got a high powered cfo. >> from microsoft. >> and there's talks that he may not in line for the main job. >> interesting. >> stocks close at 1:00. bonds close at 2:00. a lot of markets are closed, brazil, germany, switzerland and so forth. but joe, nasdaq, s&p, futures looking positive this morning. >> we are getting close, carl, to all of those market suu-saye suu-sayerses. they're finally getting -- you know the broken pot, they're finally getting close to where they're going to be right. >> they have to be right. >> december 31st, at the very

worst, we'll be the final -- these guys are predicting it. you know who we're talking about. >> i know economically who you're talking about. >> no more new highs of the year. as of december 31st, they're going to be right. >> dollar relationship was worse yesterday. down for the first time in things like six. let's get overseas. chloe cho is in singapore this morning, but first to london. it's not carolin schober. it is ross westgate. >> oh, it is? >> on this last day before christmas. morning, ross. >> hey, guys. >> an early christmas present. >> sweet. thanks, joe. we are up at '09 highs right now for the european markets that are open. half the markets are closed today. but those that are open, ftse 100, if we stay at 5386, that will be a 20909 high. in paris, the cac 40 is at 3,915.

these markets are going to close at 7:30 eastern time. that is about urnl will be shut down. if only those in ireland are trading, as well. we've got rio tinto here, tullow is up. rio tinto is under the process of selling one of its arms. near work on their project and they're getting closer. so energy stocks and miners are mainly up. here is a stock, as well. it's interesting. in light of the health care didn't that we're having and who is going to pay for it, sanofi-aventis, french drugmaker, they have a heart drug that is not being taking up by the national health care service in the uk.

it is a completely substantial environment. they said, look, for the pft you get from this bill, it does not continue to cost. the drug works. they just say for the extra benefit you get, it isn't worth paying out for. and the troen rest of the markets are closed is because today in northern europe, german and scandinavia, they get their christmas presents tonight, today, that's the main meal. chloe, over to you. >> thank you, a lot, ross. take a look at the final closing scores. a lot of the markets closing up by mover than 1% and the shanghai composite, which has been quite the underperformer this month, enjoying a pop up 2.6%. that is the best daily gain in about three months' time. let's get back to japan.

we had news coming out of that money today. the japanese government saying they are upping their target for the new financial year which kick starts from april next year to 1.4% growth level. if that is the case and they do achieve what appears to be an ambitious target, that would be japan's first pop growth in thee years. a lot of people that we're talking to, they seem to agree that they're getting ambitious in what may be due to election come up in the middle of next year. certainly a lot of m&a activity come out of japan, as well. wife got the likes of cannon want to go by osay and kirin. we saw broad based gains in techs, commodities, resources. the south korean kospi moving up by 1 much 3%. and hong kong up by 0.9%.

there is going to be a land auction next year and the shanghai composite putting on its best daily gain of 276% today. but remember, the market has lost about 10% this month. so a lot of bargain hunting is going on, as well. also, the indian market closing up its best 2.8%. a very merry christmas eve to joey. or i could call you mocha joe. >> no. that name is tape. that name is taken. but you know, viewers do bond with cable people. now people don't just know you're from the valley. a lot of viewers want to know what part of the valley are you from? >> we moved around.

first of all, in lakayenetta. >> san gabriel valley. >> yep. around the san fer unanimous doe valley. and shortly after that we moved up to west l.s. and then san that monica. >> well, i'm acen poidisappoint. >> you can make it. >> thank you and happy -- >> enjoy your christmas eve. >> happy nonsecular holiday before the big thing tomorrow. >> i have to tell you, when i go out, there's going to be some fake snow display. temperatures are now about 27 degrees cell seus. that's about, what, 80, 85, 90 fahrenheit. so it's quite warm here, what he will chilly.

>> thanks, chloe. we've got it now. that san gabriel valley is beautiful. shortened trading day today. almost gotten to the end of it after ta, right? anyway, joining us is anthony chan, chief economist at jpmorgan project management. drew, why do stocks go up at the end of the year? is it just people moving around, trying to get ready for the next year, or do they will good about, you know, having completed another year and still being aboveground? what is it? >> momentum. they're making their own news right now. earnings have been quite good. and so you have optimism in the market here and it looks like a good time to pick up some stocks. >> well, why does the calendar change sometimes hurt the

momentum can change or dry up or something if you expect stocks to at any some of that. the dollar has had a nice move up here. you've seen gold react and come down. oil is making its own news these days. but you're starting to see that unwind. so the dollar continues to see strength and perhaps stocks will see weakness sometimes after the first quarter. >> anthony, were you expecting the dollar to put in this stand at the end of the year, here snt. >> joe, what you've seen that the dollar watts completely overall. so this is not at all unreasonable to see the towns backing back. does it continue or do people highway it's too much of a

financial time, that the hat ta conceive 'sdoog. >> you look another budget deficits, trade deficits and other structural problems, longer term, yes, the dollar is probably going to get weak her. but i think when you talk about the dollar, you have to look at the dollar versus currencies. you look at the dollar versus some of the asian currencies, there i think you have some possibility for the dollar to weaken. i think versus the renminbi, i think longer term you're going to see greater weakness, even though it's not tom to term right away. versus the euro, a little of on these fundamentals, that may be overplayed a bit. >> i just wonder, if races lesses uppen thonny. couldn't that cause rarldless of

the deficits looming, we've had people say it doesn't matter. if we get to 4%, 4.5%, 5%, wouldn't you see people moving into the dollar globally? >> joe, the interest rates are an poornt factor in what happens with the dollar in the valley, but if we raise interest rates, other people rb raising their interest rates, and second, remember ben bernanke has said we're not going to be raising interest rates until we see out of the u.s. economy that's self-sustaining. we need to grow faster so we can have an impact on lowering the unemployment rate. so i think the fed will be very careful in terms of raising interest rates. so if we were to raise rates in the first quarter to 4%, 4.5%, of course you're right. the dollar is going to rally,

but i don't care that's going to happen. drew, do you have a year-end target for the s&p 500? >> i'd be careful. tlt a lot of taxeses in play. and it may have looked morrow bust than it use hip the medicine bl ever c so that is kind of the way we see it. so even to get jobs moving at all, not only do we have to stop the decline, but we have to get job growth growing 150,00020250,000 a month? that is a long way to turn that around from the very high unemployment rate. so the fed has more stimulus left in it, but it's a long,

long road. >> yes, thank you. drew, anthony, happy everything. happy new year. you practice -- i don't know, there's other wins about it. >> i'm having such trouble with this. >> you're doing well, though. >> am i? 2009, it's so complicated. >> i know. >> but is it 2009? that's based on christ and -- >> when we come back, a busy day for travel, frustrations and a last-minute shopping. national car rental knows i'm picky.

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box." i'm joe kernen are a long with carl quintanilla. becky is on the slopes somewhere

in her ski outfit. how many days in a row are we -- >> we are up four straight on the dow. >> and that's just because yesterday, just barely. 1.5 points. >> yeah. the nation's housing regulator reportedly approving packages for fannie and freddie. >> yeah. i saw the headline. >> it's the wall street journal says that the packages range from 4 million to 6 million. the housing companies are expected to spell out the details in auto security filing today. oh, this is you coming up. the top regulator is fannie. i thought it was a big number, carl. numbers that -- >> we did the gmac story where feinberg cleared 9.5 for g mac. and 6.2 for chris ladell. >> you're right, it's somewhere between $4 million and $6 million. he says a lot of compensation --

benmosche is in here again. he finally met his match with feinberg. but i wonder if that will be the story in 2010. i guess it will. >> comp. >> yes. it's going to continue to be for a while. >> i think so. regulators and legislators, meantime, probing whether wall street investment banks deliberately sold risky structures and clients and vet on the securities' failing. a big day for travel and retail today. the weather, a big part of both of those things. let's check in with our friends, scott williams, at the weather channel. scott, good morning to you. >> good morning, carl. certainly we are tracking a potent storm system here. it has severe components. look at the lightning right now moving out of east texas. numerous reports of tornados overnight. severe weather likely as we move along the i-20. also the i-10 corridor, as well. most of the thunderstorm activity is out of the houston

for now. but on the back end of the system, very cold air. snowfall in the forecast around the dallas/ft. worth area as the day progresses. meanwhi meanwhile, we have the rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow around chicago. northward you go, one to two feet of snow possible around the twin citys, expecting a lot of heavy snowfall and blizzard like conditions. so looking at the forecast for memphis, scattered showers and thunderstorms. chicago, icy to start. heavy snow around minneapolis, as well as the omaha area. current airport delays around chicago, quiet conditions. but as we go throughout the day, look for volume around the chicago area. as far as the impacts here, no current airport delays right now in the chicago area. but we'll see the wind, we'll see the rain as the day progresses. now, things get interesting here as we move into dallas, texas. rain to start, but watch those temperatures dropping. snow and wind by this afternoon. so likely some airport delays here. so certainly this is a very potent and dynamic storm system. travel treacherous here along

the i-35 corridor, especially as the day progresses. moving outside of chicago through madison and also as you move through the fargo, north dakota area, watching for winter weather warnings and blizzard-like conditions with the system before all is said and done. so certainly just use caution, give yourself some extra time here and pack some patients. little rock, arkansas, more rain in the forecast. 60 degrees will be the high temperature. so far this year, little rock, arkansas, has seen over 76 inches of rainfall making it the wettest year ever on record since records began back in the 1800s. here is the forecast as we move along i-35 here. watching for snow, watching for some rainfall to start around dallas and changing over to some snow. now back to you. >> scott, thanks for that. scott williams over at the weather channel. when we come back this morning, get the picture from the futures pits including the u.s. senate convening within the next 15, 20 minutes to begin voting on health care reform.

there's a live picture at capitol hill as the senators are arriving. senator reid arrive just a few minutes ago, about 22 minutes past the hour. ♪

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let's embrace tomorrow. and with the hartford behind you, achieve what's ahead of you. nurse, december 24th. christmas eve tonight. a lot of people have been leaving work early. stocks and bonds do have a shortened market session. stocks cloed close at 1:00 p.m. bonds close at 2:00.

futures are relatively positive after four straight up days for the dow. let's get to the future pits. scott nations joins us from chicago. will there be any trading day, scott? if so, is it significant? >> it will be significant. there's not going to be a whole lot. momentum is certainly higher. you guys were talking about how many days in a row we have been higher. no one wants to sell a quiet market. there is a little bit of good news at least for the stock market a little lower. i would never suggest that we get into a common currency. but it seems like institutionalized peer pressure will help rebalance the budget or get towards a balanced budget, which is certainly helping the euro and that's appropriate given what's going to happen in washington in about 20 minutes, huge expansion of the federal government. you have to wonder if we can afford that right now. but you know, the euro zone seems to be doing a little bit better and that's probably going to help the stock market a little bit.

>> any mention of greece, really, opens the door for the government. >> he did. did you hear him? >> i don't know if it's ready. >> what did you say? >> he was talking about the likelihood or europe or somebody helping greece. >> germany, we don't -- it's much harder. >> well, and greece is also, you know, it seems like they're going to pass a -- or they're moving towards a budget that is much more balanced or closer to balanced than it looks like they were going to do last week or the week before when everybody was afraid that the whole country was going to go belly up. >> yeah. and it seems like -- and that's going to help the euro which is going to help the stock market a little bit. we see oil back towards the tides, probably for the very same reason. but the stock market here has had a series of higher lows. so the momentum is higher. >> do you think yesterday's action with the dollar signals the end of a brief rally, or

not? >> i do. i heard your question. i heard joe's question about the dollar going forward. you know, the dollar is based largely on real interest rates and real interest rate is what you get paid minus what you lose to inflation. and to the degree that inflation picked up in the last half of the year, then the dollar is not going to do really well. you know, if we end up with job creation in the first half of the year, 120, and that leads to inflation in the last half of 2010, then that's probably not going to be good for the dollar. >> the econ data has been choppy, right? whether it's the difference between new and existing, confidence, gdp, we'll get durables and jobless claims later on today, but it has not given a clear signal either way. >> no. particularly the housing numbers. i mean, that was the case of whiplash. the durable goods numbers today, you know, we're looking for a pretty good number, particularly

based on last month. but it will be interesting to see if there's a revision from last month, what was last month, down 0.6. it will be interesting to see if we have a revision of that that would be a little bit positive and then the expecteded up 0.5, that would -- put those two together, a positive revision and as expected and that would be pretty good for the stock market. >> yeah. do you have a call on jobless claims today or is that something you normally do? >> you know, we trade the -- we trade the response, you know. jobless -- >> agnostic, right? >> well, it seems to be right now such a roll on the dice on the jobs number. >> well, i think the consensus is 470 or something like that, but we'll see what happens. merry christmas to you, scott. >> thank you, you guys. have a good holiday. >> comments about anything you see here on squawk, e-mail us. a kwek break and we'll have the news making headlines outside the world of business when

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let's check on the world outside the world of business. >> we're counting down to a major vote on capitol hill this morning where the senate democrats will passing major sweeping health care reform. republicans argue the deals made to secure the bill's passage were unconstitutional. we'll be watching. one of the world's most infamous media hosts has landed

the parents of the balloon boy dad in jail. the dad will be 90 days and the mom will be in 120 days respectively. dilly the deer has been adopted by a family. she has her own room. what a deal, if you can come up with it. just learning now from our folks stationed in brazil that sean goldman has been brought to the u.s. embassy there. his dad, david goldman, the new jersey father who has been locked in a five-year custody battle is now being reunited with his son, carl. >> that story continues to keep the nation's attention rapidly. we'll see what happens. i heard earlier this morning that he wouldn't be resting easy until they were on their way back home. >> exactly. >> contessa, thanks. the senate is convening right now. we've been watching senators

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there is a picture of the senate floor as it gets ready to vote on the most sxapsive health care reform bill ever.

joining us is senator judd greg, ranking member of the senate budget committee. morning, senator. >> morning. >> so it's going to happen and we know that you don't like it e going to talk about it a lot. let's talk about what comes next, though. do you think that even the most liberal members of the house are going to go along with the senate version so that they keep the 60 so this will be done by the state of the union? >> yes. i mean, you've got bernie sanders who is a socialist speak srg for a fair cadre on this side of the aisle what their view is as far as wanting a single-payer system. they obviously feel the bill in the senate is on that path. i think it is. there's not much question about that. >> do you think the tax on the rich goes by the wayside and you go with taxing the cadillac plan? will the white house get its way there, too? >> i think they'll do a combination. they'll tax and they'll tax. i mean, some sort of combination. >> senator, there could have

been a public option. i mean, people wanted that. there could have been a lot of other things that -- the 55 age for medicare eligiblity. there are a lot of things that probably would have been more distasteful to your party. on a scale of one to ten, a public option, if all that was in, if that was a ten for the worst possible bill, what is this bill? this should be a five or circumstance -- >> 9.995. this takes the government and explodes it. takes medicare savings, which we should use to shore up medicare and double counts them according to the cbo to create this brand new entitlement and then puts tremendous pressure on small companies that have insurance to basically drop that and move their people over to the exchange. as a practical matter those are a few of the bad policy ideas. we're headed on a road to fiscal insolvency as a nation and this will aggravate that situation. i don't think it will help

health care. i genuinely believe health care will be undermined by this because who is going to invest in innovation of health care if they know their rate of return will be radically reduced because the government will manage the marketplace. it's not going to happen the way it is today. i think it's very detrimental both on the fiscal policy and health care side. the functional equivalent of giving your wife a snow blower for christmas. >> no, no appliance. have to be small for what you give your wife. should come in a box, right? >> that's right. >> not in a crate. >> that's a different kind of ice. >> different kind of ice. senator, in the bill that finally makes it to the president, do you know what the medical loss ratio allowable for hmos will be? is that going to be still in there? will it be 85? is that what they settled on? >> basically, they're setting the level of the ability of a company to define its overhead and its profit, which is about as socialist as you can get, isn't it? >> that's going to be there,

then? >> that will definitely be there. >> what number? >> this government wants to move us toward europe. this is a european model government. let's be honest about this. they believe government creates prosperity and want to move in student loans, in automobiles and finance and in health care toward the european moment. >> great wine over there. >> we have better wine here. >> how about rich creamy sauces, the time off. >> that's true. >> olive oil. >> productivity is down. >> olive oil. >> olive oil is good. >> much better olive oil over there. go ahead, carl. >> senator, will the conversation turn to ways in which this legislation can then be refined or made better afterwards? will laws later be trying to fix this? >> carl, you know, there's one thing i've learned in my years in government, which have been a few. all government moves left. it does not move backwards. think of it as a train going off the track -- going down the

track towards a more liberal society, more liberal government, bigger and larger government. it always depends on how many engines you put on the train how fast it moves to the left. this is an awful lot of engines. it does not come back. once you put in place something like this, it will be virtually impossible to reverse the movement toward a more national form of health care system along the lines of canada and england. >> even if fiscal discipline is the name of the political game next november? >> when is fiscal discipline going to become the name of the game? >> your point is well taken. >> you are giving the benefit of the doubt to people who should not get the benefit of the down. the simple fact is there is no fiscal discipline in washington today. it's an outrage that they should even be talking about it when they're about to pals the largest expansion in government history then talk about discipline. let's not drink the kool-aid. >> you're not the only one crying for it. there are a lot of americans. to the degree they speak up next november, will the hill respond? that's my question.

>> carl, i genuinely do not believe you ever bring government back as it moves left. when government grows, the ability to reduce its size is extremely limited and only at the margins. occasionally it happens at the margins. it did under reagan. >> the tax cuts are being rescinded. a lot of people say that was one of bush's legacies. that can be reversed. >> you expect a congress that has 60% majority, supermajority on the democratic side of the aisle to reverse -- >> can't the composition of congress could change in november, right? >> well, it can change. there's no question about that. and you -- hopefully it will -- >> will it rescind like this if things don't -- >> tax policy, maybe you can get better tax policy pro-growth, pro-capital formation and basically doesn't penalize people productive in a very con physical ka tri-way but my guess is it will be at the margin again. >> the polls seem to indicate

the public at this point are against it. it's weird to go forward with it. i guess the only poll they care about is 5 54% the president wo. i guess that's the bottom line. >> they want a political win, not a substantive win in nigh opinion because the american people don't like the substance of this bill and they shouldn't. >> you are speaking your mind. you have to go in there. >> i am. i'm on my way. >> thank you, senator. >> god speed to the senator. >> there's a guy going to go right in -- >> when we come back, a lot more on the top story. the senate voting on the health care bill. plus a big kay on the jobless front. weekley jobless claims and guest host.

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the final countdown. ♪ it's the final countdown >> the senate expected to pass the health care bill this morning. we are live in washington with the latest, including reaction from senator bob corker. it's also the final countdown to christmas. >> ho, ho, ho. >> we are live at the mall of america as a strong winter storm smacks the central united states. >> what is it? >> i can't move my arms out. >> will the storm blow away holiday profits for retailers? plus, jobless claims data and an interesting take on job creation over the past decade as the second hour of squauks box quoipg begins right now.

>> merry christmas. good morning. good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we showed some snowflakes. we decided snowflakes are okay, all right sf. >> they are acceptable. people of all beliefs on this christmas eve. >> snowmen doesn't imply anything? >> trying to keep it secular today. >> candy canes, you think that's okay? i mean, we got to get -- so we're okay. >> right. >> we can do that. bob barbera is here. history in the making. health care bill vote starting now. john harwood will be here with the key factors to today's vote. we have senator bob corker here to talk about those votes.

i guess bob barbera here with what he expects snore 2010. snowflake, carl. we're fine with that? they're all different, which is like each of us. am i right or am i right? first, carl, though, has a look at this morning's totally secular top headlines. >> one big headline, health care. the senate about to hold a final vote on a sweeping health care bill. a live picture of senator reid. lawmakers up awfully early, ready to go. a lot arrived at the hill just after 6:00 a.m. eastern. our chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us with more. i was reading this morning, 25 days of debate in the senate exceeded only by 26 days back in 1917 when they were trying to decide whether to go into world war i. >> reporter: exactly. although i think this debate was a little crazier and more polarized than we've seen in a while. but this is a major piece of

social legislation they're trying to get done. i have a question. where is that final countdown tune that you played in the bump-in. whose song is that? >> is it europe -- it's either europe or asia. >> it is europe. >> which would be fitting as this bill is ready to be past. >> reporter: it was a nice song. you know what i'm talking about, the final countdown. i heard that lyric there. some producer did a perfect selection for that. >> we actually use it quite a bit. >> we were doing dominick the donkey for the democrats for a while because that is their -- not because they're -- >> their symbol is dominick. >> is dominick the donkey. we were using that. john likes weird music. he has dance parties. >> easily distracted mole phied by things. gr. >> reporter: standing in the rotunda. senators going back and forth.

some of them for some reason are going on other networks not ours. most people are tired. they're ready to get out of here and go have christmas with their families. the democrats are feeling a deep sense of satisfaction. i just ran into chris dodd, who is trying to push this legislation for his friend ted kennedy and his friend as well. a huge player in financial reform. looks like unlike on the health care debate he's coming to an accommodation with richard shelby, the ranking republican on that. that's a story for next month and early next year. and republicans are shaking their head saying -- as you heard from judd gregg on our air a few moments ago, this is another continued march in government, going to break the bank fiscally. there's some ways in which both sides are right but everybody knows which way the cards will fall. i think -- i'm looking at the monitor. ip not aware if they're still calling the roll because i can't hear the audio but i think we know exactly where every single vote is going to fall in this

balloting. and democrats have held their 60, which was their task. i guess that's why the al franken disputed election late last year proved to be so important in the long run. >> exactly. and the -- and those independents who caucus with the democrats. even though they may get 60 this morning, they only need 51 for this particular vote, is that right. >> reporter: correct. basically, the senate, guys, as you know, is set up to slow things down. the house is the quick reaction body. the rules there allow majorities to get through basically what they want, if they can hold their votes. in the senate, there's much more protection for minority rights for small states, so you need 60 votes to get past afilibuster but you only knead 60 to get past the filibuster. once you shut off debate it's a simple majority rule vote. when you have -- actually, i should probably amend what i said a moment ago when i said we know how every vote will fall because since they only need 51,

democratic leadership aides were telling me a couple of days ago they might lose a couple moderate to conservative democrats on this vote, people who would then say i stood with my party on the procedural votes to have a debate -- a final vote on this legislation but i cast a vote for my principles or my state in the final balloting. they could lose two, three, four democrats. not sure yet. >> then they can ask for more next year, more of a shakedown for their states, get a little bit more? >> reporter: not everybody got the dirty deal that ben nelson got. >> i thought they did. most of them really did. everybody got something, didn't they? >> reporter: yeah. look, when you've got a major piece of legislation that everybody knows must pass and any one senator by standing up and says, hey i could stop this train if i wanted to, they tend to try to accommodate those people. that has happened. and some of those deals we may know about now. some we may find out later. >> i heard carl under his breath said train wreck. >> reporter: what did he say?

>> i did not say anything. somebody said train wreck. you mentioned train. somebody said train wreck. >> carl. >> it wasn't me. >> reporter: it depends on your perspective. >> i don't know who it was but it wasn't carl and wasn't me. >> the studio is full of these other people. >> reporter: it was becky. >> right. john, okay, we'll talk to you soon again. this is a critical hour, obviously, at the senate. in a little bit we'll talk to senator bob corker as well, republican from tennessee, who will join us to talk more about what this all means and what the conference may look like as well. along with this story, weather is also a huge -- playing a huge factor in the holidays, slowing holiday shopping. it's the last day before christmas. and much of the central united states is going to have a problem. scott williams is at the weather channel. look at it. oh, my word. that's snow, right, scott? >> we certainly are keeping tabs on the situation. look at all the winter weather watches, warnings, advisories. you name it. on the map here. from the twin cities through kansas city, even the dallas/ft.

worth area underneath winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings watching for rain to change to snow. look at the system now. we have severe weather as well especially moving through the parishes of louisiana. look at the lightning associated with the thunderstorm activity. but on the back end of this system, it's the cold air here. the texas panhandle, the oklahoma panhandle. so this snowfall approaching the dallas/ft. worth area. chicago, critical temperatures. freezing rain advisories in effect. as you move a little farther to the north and the west watching for the twin cities for the snowfall. some of the current airport delays that we have, minimal right now around chicago. but we'll watch temperatures warm here. look for the rain to change over to some windy conditions as we go in time. but around dallas, watching for conditions to go downhill with rain changing to snow. joe. >> all right, scott. i think -- they started voting. the vote is under way. we're going to take a look.

quickly, there it is. senator reid was talking for a while. here we go. >> mr. kerry, a a. mr. kirk? >> all right it's going -- >> mr. kirk. a a. >> we will monor. it will be interesting to see if they don't do 60. >> they go back to their district and say -- >> what do you do in january or february when you have to do it again? you do it that time, right? they need 60 at some time. >> in effect, it's -- >> you don't want it to be easy, right? i keep saying that. you don't want it to be easy to pass a law. >> when at the did the chrysler bill the first time i was on the senate floor wonging for paul zonk y tsongas. and the first vote was 80% just giving chrysler the money with no strings attached.

i was devastated because we had this three-year wage freeze and big paybacks from the suppliers and all the people. i thought for sure that compromise was going to win. then someone stood up and said i'm going to filibuster this thing through christmas and they're going to go bankrupt. then they had a second vote. he agreed to be quiet if you pass the compromise. what i learned later was that the first vote was all for show. so you got to say you voted to give them the money unambiguously and, yet, you knew there would be this theater, kabu kabuki kabuki theater. >> you don't want it to be easy, true. but are you telling me that -- we just talked about al franken. so what was the difference in his election? it was like florida in the 2000 election. >> it was a few hundred votes. >> because of a few hundred votes in minnesota that elected a former "snl" comedian to the senate, 17 p% of the nation's

economy is now going to have a certain type of health care because of a couple hundred votes in minnesota. you say you don't want it to be easy. do you want it to be this arbitrary, this fractured and -- >> he did star in "trading places" and we are trading places. >> oh, you're right, in there with tom what's his face. >> with the monkey. >> that's right. he did. he was, right. >> nice call, barbera. >> did you think about that? a couple of votes in minneapolis -- or in minnesota, republicans that were too cold to go vote, we're going to have health care. >> you betcha. >> you betcha. the next guest says next weekend's mid-atlantic snowstorm may have cut same-store sales by one or two percentage points. some discount retailers have a reason to celebrate this christmas. joining us patrick mckeever, managing director at mkm partners. people still shop today, too, and it will be tough in a large part of the country. >> it is, but i think the big

weather event for december will definitely be last weekend's snowstorm just because it hit so many important markets to retailers -- the mid-atlantic and then the northeast. 50 million to 60 million people were affected by the storm in some way. so i think what you'll see is retailers with heavy exposure to those markets, particularly the mid-atlantic will see a bit of a hit to their december same-store sales. >> like who? >> dollar tree is one that i cover that the company is based in chesapeake, virginia. and they have a high concentration of stores in those markets. i think tjx, which is the biggest off-price apparel retailer, another name i cover. i like the stock but i think they'll see negative impact there. perhaps kohl's to some extent who has a fair number. in my space. >> we should break in and say a majority of senators have now voted to pass the health care bill. the roll call continues. but they do have the majority support, joe.

>> all they need is a simple majority for this one. patrick, you wouldn't base a buy or sale decision on a couple of days of weather, though. what are your favorite stocks? >> i wouldn't, absolutely not. favorite stocks are kohl's and big lots. i continue to like tjx, the biggest off-price apparel retailer, ross stores. we've seen so far a very value oriented consumer this holiday season. i think those companies will be among the bigger winners. >> are you saying definitely something like tiffany or coach will not do as well or are you seeing some people return to the high end? >> no, joe, actually we are seeing some encouraging signs from some of the luxury goods, retailers. so, no, i think actually tiffany will probably do pretty well this holiday season. saks, some encouraging signs there. no nordstrom, niemann marcus.

high end customers feeling better with the stock market doing as well as it's done and encouraging economic signs, that sort of thing. >> all right, patrick, thanks for your time this morning. >> hank you. >> see you later. any thoughts about anything going on, we'd love to hear from you. squawk@cnbc.com. we're on watch in washington, the senate continuing to vote on health care but reaching majority support to make health care reform a reality in some form in this country. we'll bring you the latest and keep you up to speed on all the developments. up goes the easel but going digital. steve liesman turning in the marker for a telestrator. bob barbera joins him. . although a light trading day, a lot of traders in the cme. (sneezing): ah-choo!

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live picture ofthe senate floor here this morning. the senate has passed the $871 billion health care reform bill extending insurance to some 31 million americans. don't have a final vote. actually we do.

the health bill passes by 60 to 39 and they needed a 51 vote majority. so obviously passing with plenty of margin. for error. it goes to conference in january with the house and potentially to the president's desk by some say late january, early february. >> yeah. so nobody -- that did not happen -- is john with us? >> no. >> no, he's not. he is? >> oh, john is there. >> he is there. >> john, none of those guys that said they'd vote yes voted no to go home to say i voted no. >> reporter: a little surprise for me given the guidance i had gotten earlier. but i think what happens is once these members, the democratic members got locked in on this series of procedural votes, they probably felt it would make it more complicated to explain why they would vote another way in final pass. one republican that did not vote was jim bunting of kentucky. you may remember hall of fame

pitcher, pitched a perfect game when, joe, you and i were young and maybe before carl was born. >> definitely, yeah. >> reporter: and he does not have a perfect voting record because he didn't show up for this voted to and the ones yesterday. >> how big of a victory for the president, john? >> reporter: it's a tremendous victory. for the president to be able to end his first year -- you think about the problems that barack obama inherited when he came to office. think about how a few years ago this was a state senator in illinois. comes out of nowhere, becomes president with the economy on the brink of collapse. he gets through his stimulus bill with the help of democrats in congress. huge fights over whether it was well targeted, over whether it was the right stimulus package, whether it made sense. nevertheless, if you look at the bottom line, the economy has returned to growth. ben bernanke had a heck of a lot to do with that as well. but on the legislative agenda, apart from that, trying to get the economy righted, three big issues -- financial

re-regulation of wall street. there's some progress there. we heard from chris dodd and richard shelby last night they're making progress. the house passed it. energy, the cap and trade bill. that's the hardest of the elements on his agenda. passed the house. uphill fight in the senate. but then you have health care, which is sort of the jewel in the crown for liberals for decade. this is what they wanted to provide to sort of vindicate their view of the role of government. the house has done it. it had never passed any chamber of congress. now the senate has followed through on christmas eve. president obama can go celebrate christmas feeling that he's got an awful lot done this year. it's not over the finish line. we've got weeks of negotiating, but it's likely to happen early next year. >> yes, all right. john, very good, thank you. i think we'll be back with you again shortly. stay put. we're closing the books the decades. not a pretty one for jocks. steve economic reporter steve

liesman and bob berra at an electronic easel and we have the tale of the dismal decade. the whole ten years, huh, steve? >> yeah, joe. this is amazing when you add it up and put it all together. we looked at the '40s, the '50s, the 60s. nothing is close to what we come up with the 2000s. take a look at our first chart here. you cannot measure it. the '40s something like 1 is million. that's not what i want. that's what i want. something like 11 million here. that was 12 million. we did 21.7 million here. this is the number, folks. 465,000 jobs. you want to comment before we move forward here? >> it's worse than that because you're looking at millions and you have a growing base. >> we're not showing it relative to the population. >> yes. >> let's move on and look at it year by year, the ten years. what you find is a real roller coaster. started off the year here with a little bit of job growth coming

from the '90s, okay? then we had a recession. one, two, three down years. had a couple of up years. but, bob, if i'm not mistaken, the trouble with the up years they were not that strong for the parts of the expansion. >> i think what you need is to come back and look back here at the previous decade. what you had was a spectacular -- >> don't be afraid. i know you wanted to be a weatherman. >> i'm feeling much like john madden right now. if you go back here, you realize they should have been blocking. >> and then, of course, you cannot escape these two right here. massive, massive downdraft in jobs. let's move on and go to the next segment here. with a we're going to look at is what's really unusual. quick on this one. we've never had this before. that you started here on the decade and you end up pretty much where you started. to the next one because we're going to run out of time. i want to show you the unemployment rate, another thing interesting about this right here. that's a blow-up of the decade.

here's the next one here. all of this happened, this terrible decade happened amid a 30-year decline in the unemployment rate. bob, what do we learn from that that? >> what we learn from that is the grade moderation didn't last for 40 years. that was the period in which we thought -- >> sometimes the obvious is just genius. >> where we thought we had licked the big recessions and what you're looking at is a big recession. >> let's look at some of the reasons -- i talked to some economists. you give me your two 20s as to the reason why we had a lousy jobs decade, the worst recession in a a-year period. strong productivity, offshoring. the last one is interesting. fewer americans coming to the table for work. if you look at the participation rate in the next screen what you find is this, men have been dropping out of the workforce here and the entrance of women to the workforce basically leveled off. and that's why you don't have to do as much, 114,000 -- what's the upshot and tell us about the

next decade? >> go back to 2000. the unemployment rate at 3.. the participation rate at the highest we had ever seen, brave new world of technology, saying everything would be great. that broke. the unemployment rate rose. we had a moderate recovery and big recession. from here, i would argue going forward, i think this decade you're going to have a much better performance for jobs precisely because of the starting point. i remember there was a point where al gore was saying, if a democrat had been elected, we would have had 8 more million jobs. it was absurd because the unemployment rate was 3.. you would have had minus one. from this level we're going to have better job growth. >> have you stopped losing men in the workforce, is there a sense at all? some from the recession. look at the participation rate come down. apparently young men, 26, 25, who feel like it's better to be in the school right there. >> i also think, some of it is young men but also the

demographics. the baby boom generation is getting older, so a higher percentage of the population will be playing golf. >> we have to tolls it back. did you have your experience of the weatherman that you always wanted in. >> i did. i don't feel i'm quite michelle pfeifer when she did that robert redford. >> you can have that experience any time you want. >> been there, done that. i played phil conners a few time. >> three, two -- >> yeah, exactly. okay, hairdo. you want to go ahead -- co-anchor hairdo? i've got networks interested in me. >> that's right. >> home shopping. >> guys, thanks. we'll see bob over here on set in a second. as you may know, the health care bill has passed 60-39 in the senate. all republicans voted no. an update after the break with senator bob corker. plus jobless claims in a little more than an hour in what is likely to be a light trading day. we check in with the traders at

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welcome back to squawk for a christmas eve day. get a check on the markets. a shortened session for stocks and bonds, but we're going to try to make it five straight up for the dow after four straight days, 158 points we've added slowly and surely to the dow. some key economic reports ahead, as we get set for this shortened day. the labor department is going to release weekly reports on first-time claims for jobless benefits, economists expecting a slight drop from a week ago. also the latest reading on durable goods at 8:30 eastern time. high blood pressure was reportedly the reason why bernie madoff was moved to the medical facility at the federal prison in butner, north carolina, according to "the new york times." madoff serving a 1 a-year sentence in connection with the massive ponzi scheme. memory chips for camera,

cell phone, computers could cost more next year. the industry tracker says such chips will be in short supply because companies begin a delayed cycle for persona computer and demand for capacity for chips in phones and cameras personal computers. persona. i thought it might be a brand name -- >> i think it's personal non grata. >> probably, you're right. be nimble, jack be quick. >> i have a mac and a persona. >> and a persona? >> in my office. >> is that made by commodore? >> the persona 64. the senate, meantime, as you know, passed the health care reform bill by 60-3 the. here with some reaction, senator bob corker, ranking member of the banking committee. good morning to you. >> good morning, gentlemen. >> can you tell us what it was like in the chamber this morning? >> you know, i mean, in fairness, semi-anti-climactic. we've know there's procedural

votes up until today. today was just a 51-vote threshold, so we knew it was going to pass. but there were actually two votes today. the second vote was to ray the debt ceiling. i don't think there were any republican votes for that and i think it's a sign of times to come. the fact is a temporary debt ceiling increase, there will be something, again, debated beginning january the 20th. i think all of us are very concerned about the financial impact not only of this bill but so much of what's happened this year and what is being proposed by the administration into the future. >> we have heard some on the house side, in talking about the conference process, say louise slaughter from new york saying the senate bill is not worthy of the historic vote that the house made. how aggressive is the house going to be in pushing back in conference? >> well, i don't know. i know senator reid responded to comments yesterday about how that's going to be handled. i don't think anybody yet knows. my guess is there may not even be a conference. there may be a message that

comes back from the house. my guess is they don't want to get into a lot of sticky discussions. but, look, one of the things that came out yesterday -- and we've been saying this now for months, but you can't count -- you cannot count money twice. and cbo came out yesterday talking about the fact that what's being done in the senate bill and in the house bill is something that's going to be very damaging to medicare. so hopefully, as some of the house members focus on that, that will cause some people to be uneasy about what's happening. but it's the same thing we've been saying all along. this bill is going to create tremendous problems for our entitlements. it's going to create tremendous problems for this program that was built by leveraging savings from an entitlement and, in essence, trying to count spent money twice, which obviously, you just cannot do. >> how unwilling will republicans be now to vote with democrats on issues that you might actually have more in common on? >> look, yesterday we had a

meeting, several of us on the banking committee. i actually went across right after this vote and saw many of my friends on the other side of the aisle. i don't say that lightly. i truly have a lot of friends on the other side of the aisle. i think on financial reform, we have the tone set. and i think the -- we have things set so that we can do something in a very bipartisan way, do a bill that's much better done than what was done in the house and hopefully a bill that will stand the test of time. look, we disagreed on this bill, and there were good reasons for that. but there are a lot of important things this country needs to deal with. i look forward to coming back right after the first of the year and trying to work in a bipartisan way where we can to make good things happen for this country. financial reform will be the first test and i think we'll do it. >> you mentioned the vote on the debt limit. the senate has reached the 60 votes needed to pass. the voting continues on the debt limit. some say, senator, that's going to complicate the president's

mission in communicating the state of the union when you've got all these things to your credit but the message to some americans is going to be we continue-to-spend aggressively. >> and we're going to start the debate on the debt ceiling. this was a temporary debt ceiling increase. we'll start the debate on january toth. i xli kates thing. let's look at t.a.r.p. it's literally turned into a slush fund. there are monies that ought to be returned. we should not be using that money to create a new stimulus, but the president, i think, will try to announce something like that. i do think you're exactly right. look, this has been an incredible year of spending. i think that this will cramp his style. i think that's a good thing for our country. and i think most people in america -- i know most of your listeners are most concerned about the huge indebtedness this country is taking on and the fact that we all know at some point you reach a point where it's really devastating to the country. so hopefully, we have together

will be responsible this next year and certainly i look forward to playing a big role in that. >> senator, any chance you could speculate on where the issues for compromise will need to be to get the house/senate compromise? no. >> i don't. just to be candid, let's face it, this bill was done totally on the democratic side on the aisle. it's -- you know, every negotiation -- and it began that way because of this medicare issue. i mean, the fact is that we, in a unified way, said if you're going to try to take money from medicare and leverage a new entitlement, we cannot support it. they were bent on doing that. this entire negotiation has taken place on the other side of the aisle. i don't know what they're discussing amongst each other. so i apologize for not being able to -- i'm just on the wrong side of the aisle. i apologize. >> well, for now. who knows what happens in 11 or 12 months.

senator, what i'm hearing you say is the republicans clearly lost this fight, but you don't think the senate is broken. you don't think health care has broken the back of the senate? it's still going to work in 2010 if. >> i don't. i went to one of the best meetings that i've had yesterday for republicans, for democrats on financial reform. i think there's an absolute commitment to doing this right. we all know what's taken place here. i mean, people on the other side of the aisle know this was a political victory. i think a lot of people have questions on the other side of the aisle about the content of this bill that just passed. but the fact is, that doesn't mean that there are other things that we have common ground on. and i really do not think the senate is broken. i think you're going to see some responsible actions taken on financial reform. and i'm going to be right in the middle of that and i look forward to it. >> on the financial reform side, where do you come out on the issue of trimming the sales of the fed's power? >> the fed is going to be

tripled back a little bit. i've asked chairman bernanke -- i'm not a fed basher. i think you know that. but i've asked him for a letter of substance as to why he believes they should continue to have provincial supervision over the top 25 entities in our country. i expect to get that after the first of the year. but there's no question they're going to be trimmed back some both in the 13-3 responsibilities they have and probably in prudential supervision. but we're going to work through this. this is not about the past. this is about the future. i think all of us are committed to trying to get it right. and, again, i look forward to that. that's what i came to the senate to do, was to act responsibly, do the right thing for this country. i think i just did that with my vote, don't get me wrong, on health care. but i'd rather see us do something that's bipartisan and will stand the test of time. and i think all of us are committed to doing that. >> senator, appreciate your time on an understandably busy morning for you. have a great holiday break.

>> thank you. i'm looking forward to getting home to my wife, elizabeth, two girls, our three dogs. i wish all of y'all a very merry christmas, happy holiday and look forward to tuning in with you next year. >> it's been agreat '09 wu and look forward to more. up next, a czech on the markets. yeah, standing by, he will join us next. and still to come, i guess. senator kay bailey hutchison with her reaction to this morning's health care votes.

be. there is senator reid. i think we're going to listen -- i like this line here, carl. for the first time in american history, a political party has chosen to stand on the sidelines rather than participate in great and greatly needed social change. not necessarily so conciliatory yet at this point but let's listen to the majority leader now. now he's done. >> this is chairman baucus.

>> it's been nearly two years since we began our work on health care reform here in the senate. and we're all very, very proud of this moment. we stand here at the finish line, though, as we stand here, we're not standing alone. we stand with those who blazed the trail ahead us, tireless champions of health care reform all the way from president theodore roosevelt to our good friend who is with us in spirit, ted kennedy. we are standing with millions of american families who have been forced to bankruptcy to cover the cost of health care. we stand on behalf of 45,000 americans who die each year simply because they don't have health insurance. we stand with small business owners who cannot afford health insurance for their employees. we stand with americans suffering from diseases like cancer, diabetes and all those who have been discriminated against or denied health insurance coverage because of a preexisting condition. today we make history for them and every american who has fallen victim to our broken

health care system. i especially want to thank leader reid for the terrific way he's managed to navigate the waters to get us here to final passage. this is going to be a day that we're going to look back upon as senators very proud of what we've accomplished. but more important, be very happy to see people getting health care that they now cannot get. very happy to see health care costs being much more under control. this is why we came here. this is why we hired out for these jobs, to pass something very historic and important like this. >> all right. senator max baucus with his comments. we'll be in and out. chris dodd coming up now. we're going to focus as we do on the markets also focusing on jobless claims data less than 60 minutes away at the cme. market strategist wus and guest host economist bob barbera. are you waiting for the claims numbers today or are you waiting for the eggnog tonight?

>> a little turkey. you know, the claims number is important and also the continuing claims numbers are important. we know that the jobless rate has been slow to improve here, in spite of all of the other factors that people are citing as reasons to get positive on this economy. i also think that yesterday's housing starts number was really dismal and got lost in some of the shuffle. i'm not as bullish as other people are here. i'm very concerned. i'm concerned about 2010. >> yeah, the newly built homes number down 11%. those are kind of mixed, aren't they? isn't this what bouncing on the bottom looks like, pete officer. >> the only problem is housing and the real estate -- the mortgage nonsense of the last ten years really was a driver to our economy. if you look where the job creation came, it was in mortgage, mortgage finance, real estate, building, home depot, et

cetera, et cetera and so i really am a little concerned that that driver of our economy is not going to be able to resume that pace of economic activity going forward. >> you're like a grinch. >> i'm sorry. >> that's always the case, right? the sector that was the bubble sector is not going to be the engine for growth in the next sector. tech took a decade off. >> yeah. not quite as key to everything as housing, though. >> true. but i still think that it's always -- people say what's going to be the big leader? if i knew that, i'd have the perfectly dee signed portfolio. history suggests that if you've got the right monetary policy and the banks are functioning, that you do have a rebound and it is substantial. and that's still my wager. >> it's going to be green. we know that, right? green energy, green this, green that. >> oh, okay. >> that's going to be where a lot of the -- the government is going to grease the skids for them, right? >> i think the -- if you look at the -- one of the most interesting things about the car sales independent of what the

government is doing, despite the fact that the gas prices have come down, there does seem to still be sort of a tipping point kind of change in attitudes about people do want to drive a car -- i'm still telling you you have to buy the tesla. you're a sports car guy. zero to 60 in 3.9 seconds. >> i can buy one now? >> 109 grand. >> you can buy a couple. >> i can buy a couple for that price exactly. peter, thank you. >> happy holidays, everybody. >> happy new year. happy mayan calendar, happy -- >> don't forget kwanzaa. >> the year of the elf -- >> next year is the year of the tiger. >> this is the year of the ox, because ava and lilly are oxen. >> this year was the year that the tiger had its ox gored. >> go on, be a tiger. when we come back, the

irresistible force meets the immovable object as desperate last-minute shoppers fight a fierce storm in the midwest. we check in with the country's largest mall, mall of america. at the top of the hour, senator kay bailey hutchison will be our guest as well. stay tuned. his reputation is expanding as fast as the universe. he once had an awkward moment just to see how it feels. he lives vicariously through himself. he is the most interesting man in the world. >> i don't always watch cnbc. but when i do, i prefer stocks to watch and the animal orchestra. keep watching, my friends. for a. to ensure our forces are safer and stronger.

to take the world we share to tomorrow and beyond. announcer: around the globe, the people of boeing are working together-- to make a difference. that's why we're here.

for the christmas season, i would say i like the animal orchestra. >> we didn't get anything for each other yesterday. we decided not to do that. but that is my little gift to you. >> and my gift back is to say that's great. let's look at stocks to watch. this is confusing. this is pfizer. has to do with a drug called

lyrica, which received a complete response letter from the fda. they want it for a generalized anxiety disorder, to treat that as a mono therapy. i don't necessarily think this is great because it says that the fda determined that the data contained in the new drug application, the data were insufficient to support approval. and the application already was a resubmission in response to a not approvable letter received back in august of 2004. shows you how long it takes to get some of these drugs approved. but pfizer has had a slow, steady move higher and it's a huge behemoth that has not seen the best levels in -- there was kind of a drug stock bubble before a tech bubble. and the pfizers and the mercks were trading at 30, 40 times earnings for a long time. >> before the tech stocks. >> sort of the blue chip, in the blue chip rally that took coke

to 40 times earnings and general electrician to 40 times earnings. we'll talk more about health care. passed 60-39. democratic senator maria cantwell joins us now. and, senator, we've had two republicans on. they were not smiling. you are smiling. this morning. did the bill -- does it have enough in it for the more liberal members of your party? >> well, this is about new tools for cost containment. we know that health care premiums are going to keep rising about 10% a year. we know that's unsustainable. this is about giving states and giving others the ability to reform the system so that we can help control the costs. >> okay. we know that the house bill had some of the things that weren't going to be possible as the senate bill, the public option and some other things. do you think that you'll have any trouble reconciling this with your more progressive party members? >> oh, i'm sure there's going to be a lively discussion between

house and senate members. i have a provision in the senate bill that was about a public/private partnership that would allow states to deliver a public plan that i think has worked for 20 years in controlling costs in our state. i hope that the house members, when they discuss what a public plan would look like, would consider that, because it's proven to drive down costs 30 to 40% in our state. >> does the president -- does he come out on the side of your public/private partnership? >> well, it's been in the bill since the finance committee. i think it's an avenue for further expansion. we will see what the house says in their discussions. but we know that americans cannot have $1,000 added to their annual premiums because uninsured are rushing in to hospital emergency rooms. this is about giving the tools to reform this system, to help drive down our federal deficit, as well as driving down premium costs. >> so you're saying this might be the compromise to the full-blown public option?

>> well, i would -- i would propose it because, as i said, we've had it for 20 years and it's been a public/private partnership and it's been very successful. and what it also does is drive managed care into regions of the country that may not have managed care today. when you say i'm going to take up a population, say, in ohio and serve up 100,000 people, who wants to bid on that business? obviously, managed care will go into places that may not have had that kind of delivery service. >> do you think the senators who were the swing senators have the ultimate veto on that kind of compromise? or is there more room in the negotiations with the house than there was on the senate floor? >> i think you're going to have every member of the senate who voted for this bill looking at what comes back from conference. no doubt about that. but i think the opportunity is to work with the house members on what are we really going to do to drive down costs? giving people access is

important. that helps control costs. but what are we going to do to help drive down the cost for health care? both for individuals and to the federal government. >> senator, the president has said that the amount of overlap between the house and senate bills is somewhere around 95%. does that sound high to you? >> i think there are key provisions where there are probably big differences, so it might just be 10% but there are big issues there. but we've had obviously a very drawn-out discussion about them with both moderates and liberals and conservatives within our 60 votes. so, yes, i think we've had a full airing of those issues. so it's going to be hard to maneuver way off of that. >> senator, some individuals that have held out have done pretty well by their states. and i guess everyone is elected by their state. you want to do well by your state. will there be a tendency for a me, too, type of situation? there is a louisiana purchase. there's even a name we call

senator landrieu, senator nelson, cornhusker kickback. there are 60 votes. everybody should get theirs, shouldn't they? >> here's what the issue is. if you look all of these things that people are describing in one way or another, they really relate to what is the problem with the states right now. you guys have been talking about economics all morning and what's happening with the economy. states are coming up short as it relates to medicaid dollars. that is, they are going to have to cut people off of health care in their states. so all of these senators have been discussing -- even though this bill does not take full effect until 2014, what can we do between 2010 and 2014 to help states with their medicaid enrollie population? i'm sure that discussion is going to continue when we come back in january. >> senator, appreciate your time this morning. congratulations to you and your colleagues. >> thank you. when we come back this morning, still awaiting jobless claims in about half an hour, plus a check on that strong

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breaking news. a senate vote on health care. >> the ayes are 60, nays 39. as amended the patient protection and affordable care act is passed. plus, all i want for christmas is some good economic data. ♪ it's the most wonderful time >> weekly jobless claims and durable goods about to hit the tape. santa's coming to town. >> santa! oh, my god! >> traders looking for santa to bring a traditional rally to wall street today. we'll see if the jolly old fellow shows up as the final hour of "squawk" begins right now.

♪ welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. joe kernen along with carl quintanilla. till managing to stay in positive territory after four straight days. yesterday we were counting our chickens before they hatched. took all day to get a point and a half. >> we crossed the fat line 60 some odd times. >> not a whole lot of conviction on either side. there it is up today 23 points. 8:30 eastern could influence things. economists see filings dropping by 10,000. hit sfth tape at 8:30, durable goods. total orders expected to rise by 0.4%. we will bring the numbers when it hits. the top story, the u.s. senate passing the health care

bill. our john harwood is on capitol hill. john, you've been guiding us through this all morning long. we just heard from senator cantwell and we're still trying to get a read as to how firmly the senate will resist all the changes that the house is going to want to make once this goes to conference. >> reporter: they will accept some changes, but not changes on the parts of their bill where they've got no margin for error. so some of the issues of subsidies, the precise shape of the exchanges, the abortion language, for example, are things that still might be compromised, although ben nelson has indicated he's not going to move very much. but you're not going to see a public option like, for example, the house included in their bill in the final product. it's just not happening because they can't get the votes for it. and i do think the senate on the tax we discussed earlier, the cadillac health care plan tax is something that the president wants to be able to have to say i'm trying to bend the cost curve. and i don't think he wants that tax on million dollar couples'

incomes because that sort of goes against his mess mg. he don't want tax increases to be the message and doesn't want -- even though there's alittle populism from this white house he don't want soak the rich to be the message. he wants smart liberalism, not what some people on the other side might say a knee-jerk reflex from the democratic caucus. >> we had senator corker on in the last hour and tried to get from him whether or not somehow health care has polluted the environment in the senate. he seems to think that financial reform is still a decent possibility. i know you do as well. >> reporter: yep. >> and that is going to be a huge, huge topic in january and february, right? >> reporter: the washington environment is polluted and has been polluted for a long time. it's not because of this debate, although this debate didn't help it. but you do find that there are issues that get taken out of that context or get put in that context much less. financial regulation reform is one of those. both sides want to practice a

little bit of populist rhetoric on that. richard shelby works with chris dodd. you saw that on credit card reform last year. new rules for credit card companies. a lot of people wanted to jump on board on that. health care is one of those touchstone issues that divides the parties. you'll see the same divisions on energy, although there are also on energy some regional differences wisconsin might in some cases be stronger than the partisan ones, especially from some of those energy state democrats -- mary landrieu of louisiana and others who are going to be resistant to the cap and trade program that other democrats want to push through, those on the coast. >> you've been talking with joe, me and becky a long time about health care. now that this is done in the senate, what about the process, if anything, has taken you by surprise? >> reporter: i was surprised that olympia snowe, having voted for this bill in the senate finance committee, didn't come along in the end. and i'm going to be very interested to see in january whether or not, in fact, you

have a little bit of a different final passage. because sometimes what you have from partisans who dig in, have civil war on the underlying bill, but then once you get to the final vote, some people cross over and say, i did everything i could to stop it. but on this final up or down vote, you know, do we want to pass this health care bill or not, it's possible that a few republicans might be there. not sure of that. but i'm going to be waiting to see and prepare to be surprised. >> that will be interesting, yeah. good stuff, john. thanks again. >> reporter: merry christmas. >> will we talk to john again? i'm not sure. he'll be on all day. the story is where he is. >> i know i'm going to see him on "the call." >> this is the great thing, bob, because it is christmas eve, there's some substitutions in the anchor lineup today. so joe and david faber do "the call" at 11. >> it's "squawk on the call" --

i haven't thought about it, a combination of "squawk box," "squall on the street." it will be on the set. >> you're not going to set on "the call" set? >> i'm squawkinizing it. if they don't like it, they can call someone else. i'm like a senator voting yeah. there were a lot of concessions that i got to agree to do this. bob, a philosophical question. you're a great economist. i've followed you for years. but even economists can be so either -- they can be so ideological that even their -- the economics that they practice because ideological. so you have cugman, guys like him. the other side, gary becker or whomever. friedman. here we are, some say marching some say toward euro socialism

but it does have an american kind of a tinge to it, does it not? there's no public plan. is it moving towards a euro social -- is it our own brand of -- >> i think, look, the republicans have been in charge for quite a while. the democrats are in charge now. so you're going to definitely by definition take a step in the leftward direction. a lot of people have -- who have an ideological -- strong ideological bend are very concerned about 2010. you can make an argument about what this means for the next 20 years. but when i think about health care and i think about 2010, you know, whether or not this will be a genuine recovery, it's like a fourth or fifth order consideration. >> health care is? >> yes. again, you can say it has important implications over the next 20 years. but we just came through the worst recession since the great depression. the question was, could we get monetary policy to work. if you got that right, it's going to overwhelm changes in health care policy over the short while. >> although we have people that say entitlements are the most

vexing problem that all future generations might have to face. >> when you say that, you sit back and say, i think because the public is getting a bigger part of the action that i'm going to take 0.5% off of the long-term growth rate. that's an interesting debate. but are we going to have a genuine recovery with job generation? that's a function whether you have monetary policy right and whether you're going to restart the engine. and my clients pay me to try to get 2010 right as a big question and then secondarily. >> most of what you consider, then, is it rests on the success of the private sector at this point? government is just a -- >> when david malpass was on -- >> the government is functioning on the edges. things happen in spite of the government. >> i was talking with david, if you have remember, at the break. i said, look, you've always been a big private sector productivity guy. you're putting a lot of

importance on the government if you say they can overwhelm that. and so if you've got -- >> no matter how bad they are they can't really derail the u.s. economy. >> let's be fair now. at this time last year we felt we did need a little help from the government. we had to bail out the banks and i absolutely believe that and we had to not nationalize the banks. i know i say that every time i'm on here. but that was a close one. that was a close one. you keep talking about becoming france. this we nationalized ten banks, okay, then i'd be sitting here saying this is a very different world than the one i've been involved in in the last 30 years as an economist. we didn't do that. the banks were rescued without nationalized. i think the credit system is functioning again. that's why i have a good outlook for 2010. >> you don't think even with the tax policy combined with cap and trade, combined with possible -- >> cap and trade i think is cap and debt, right? >> that's not going to happen? so the government can't hurt you there, then?

>> i think that's right. and, again -- >> what about tax policy? >> well, i think, if we can -- can we stay an 2010 for a moment and go back to the discussion that steve liesman and i had? 2 7 graphs that said disaster jobs last ten years, okay? what do con census forecasters do? they look backward. that means we're going to have a jobless recovery. in fact, the disaster of the last ten years in terms of jobs suggests to me that 2010 is going to be a good year for job growth because we're starting from such a low base. because we cratered the jobs market over the last 18 months. so, you know -- where does tax policy come in on that? it's the second order consideration in the short run. >> today, the first order is health care, at least for today. >> no, no, no, absolutely. >> speaking of which back to the hill. we're joined by senator kay bailey hutchison member of the aproep yetions committee. good to have you on the show.

is it a good morning? >> at least we get to go home and be with our families one day before christmas. >> can you characterize where the party sits right now in relation to the bill that was just passed? >> well, i think that we made the points and i think we showed the american people what was in this disastrous bill. and the cost -- the cuts in medicare, the taxes that are going to come in on small business especially as well as families in this hard economic time, i think that it is a terrible bill. and i hope that it can change in the conference committee. hope is always there until this is finally done. and it is not finally done. >> what are your hopes? when we talk about conference, talk about the likelihood of that really being remedied to a degree that would make you happy, make the party happy. >> well, i think there are things that we could do to bring down the cost of health care and make more access affordable for

p people to be able to have health insurance and for businesses to be able to offer it. but this bill is not doing that. it's increasing the cost of health care. this bill costs $2.5 trillion. and they're going to raise taxes to pay for it and cut medicare drastically to pay for it. now, we need to shore up medicare. but the money that's being cut out of medicare isn't going to shore up medicare. it's going to be going over to a new big government program. and i don't think that any of that is going to be helpful to our economy when, really, our economy is on its knees right now. >> it sound like the republicans are going to try to couple this message with the vote on the debt ceiling today, right? at least as we head into the state of the union. >> well, yes. and you know the debt ceiling is a very temporary raise. the republicans voted against it, because we think that we should not raise the debt

ceiling, that we should start putting the t.a.r.p. money back into the revenue stream so that we do not have that also outstanding and raising debt to pay for it. we think that we need to cut the stimulus funds that are not spent. we need to start cutting back on spending. and so republicans are not going to support this increase in the debt limit. >> senator, we had our own john harwood on a little while ago. he said one of the most surprising things that might happen when it's all said and done is that some republicans, when it becomes clear it's going to pass, that they might join along for the good of the country and go ahead and vote for the final passage of the bill. do you know any of your colleagues -- would you make that prediction at this point? >> no, i wouldn't. i believe -- >> would it be a cold day? >> well, i just think that the republicans believe that this is such bad policy that the cost of it are just out of sight.

the cuts to medicare are ill conceived. and the taxes on business at a time like this -- the taxes that are going into effect, they're going to raise insurance premiums. they're going to raise prescription drug prices. they're going to raise medical equipment prices. that's raising the cost of health care. it's not making it more affordable. so i don't see a republican -- i haven't heard any republican saying that this is really a good bill but they were just sticking together. people think this is a terrible bill. >> we spoke to -- speaking of which, we spoke to judd gregg in the last couple of hours and we said if -- on a scale from one to ten, if the initial bill was a ten on the bad side, does it bring it back to a five or a four. he said it was a 9.99 a, something like that? >> even without the public option, even without the medicare provision, still say 9.99. >> we've been having the discussion at the table, senator, about moving toward a socialist system or not in this country. when you rook at the fact that

we didn't nationalize banks, there is no public option here, cap and trade does look dead, are you encouraged by any of that? >> i think you're going to see an eventual public option in this bill. if the private insurance companies don't meet the mandates and they decide not to go on the exchange, then the public option is the fallback. and secondly, cap and trade coming behind this is just another huge hit on the economy. it will raise gasoline prices for every american. it will raise all of the costs of energy. and it's not going to help the environment. >> you think cap and trade is going to pass, then? because we were pretty sure it wasn't going to pass. we were depending on you. >> well, they certainly put it aside so that they could focus on health care. and they have said that it's probably not on the front burner. but after health care is finished in whatever way that it is, then i don't know what they're going to bring up. but certainly they put cap and trade on the table.

they've passed it out of committee in the senate, out of the house. and so i'd say they're pretty serious about it. i hope not. i hope that they have learned that too many people understand that this is another big cost increase on top of this health care bill, if that passes. then you have all this spending that is raising the debt ceiling. i just think that we're looking at a calamity if all of this goes through. >> senator, thanks for your time on a busy morning. safe travels home. >> thank you. >> we'll see you in 2010. >> yeah, see you in 2010. i hope everyone has a nice holiday now. we're going to come back. >> thank you. you need an eye for it. >> texas. >> that's right. who am i thinking of? >> i'm not sure. >> the other lady. >> how about higher gas taxes, good news or bad news, higher gas taxes?

>> higher gas taxes? mike jackson has been arguing for it for a long time. >> don't mess with texas. i'm it trouble. breaking economic news, weekly jobless claims, durable goods. plus the hour is ticking away for last-minute holiday shopping. we head to the mall of america for the pulse of the american consumer. it's going to be snowing, i think when "squawk" comes right back.

itchy and scratchy. biggest shopping center in the country walloped by old man winter. last-minute shoppers expected to plow ahead anyway. we have the executive vice president of the mall of america. tell us what's it look like on the ground right now, maureen? is it snowing? >> well, it's not snowing right now. the roads are snow-packed but it will start again this afternoon. so mother nature has given us a little bit of a break to finish your shopping. >> well, i know that people there had seen known before. they're going to come either way, right? >> yes. hardy minnesotans. i don't think this will stop them if they have a little bit left to do. however, we did see a busier monday and tuesday and wednesday than we normally would see. >> because you knew maybe this was coming. overall, can you use your -- i

mean, carnack the magnificent, how much better this year than last year on a percentage basis? >> i think we'll end up it 2%, 2.5% up from last year. we liken it to consumers on a diet early in the year. we think they saved up all their money and spending this christmas and might save us this holiday season. so we have seen a burst in spending. traffic has been up -- i think we're averaging 27% up the last couple of weeks. our promotion is up 35%. so we're seeing people in here. they're buying thoughtfully, but they are buying. we're seeing luxury come back. so it has been a good end of the year. >> how many santas do you have, do you know? there. helpers, helpers. i mean, they're not -- it's not the actual santa.

>> actually, i think we have one real santa, the real santa and then one helper. so two in a santa suit. >> the lines must be long there. go ahead. >> oh, well, we have one santa by appointment, so you don't have to wait in line. then we have santa, spontaneous santa. actually, both are up. so people are back taking pictures of their family in front of santa. >> is there a santa.com? seems like he should have -- or is he resistant to that? >> if you were santa, which mall would you choose to be at? >> mall of america. you have got all the main tenants, don't you? you don't have to worry about your main tenant leaving at mall of america. you have a nordstrom, macy's, everything there? >> yes. we have 520 stores. all the major tenants are represented. we talk to them on a regular basis. and they're consistently telling

us this is a very good season for them. so i'm very optimistic that we might be coming out of it. >> good. i'm hoping for you. pull for you. dana tellsy just walked behind her with all of her elves. appreciate all your time. happy holidays, happy new year. >> happy holidays to you, too. when we come back we have breaking economic news. the senate also passing this health care bill this morning right along party lines. we are waiting to hear from the president, who will speak at about 8:45 we think.

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♪ >> the reason they put that tree up is finally here. christmas eve tonight. of course shortened session for stocks. stocks close at 1:00. bonds close at 2:00. futures losing a little ground but obviously on a lot of light volume expected today. breaking economic news. durables and jobless claims coming in about 3 1/2 minutes when "sqawk" continues. 

good thursday morning. welcome back to "sqawk" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. we're an hour away from opening bell on wall street waiting for breaking economic news. jobless claims on the way and durable goods as well. jobless claims we're looking for 470, which is a long way from the 650 plus we had a few months ago. and on durables as well, i think

we're looking for 0.5 and one ex-transportation. steve liesman, bob barbera here on set. bob has been keeping us company and watching this health care debate. jim, let's get those numbers, please. >> this number has been a source of frustration lately. today is actually pretty good. 42 is the headline number continuing claims number down. 576,000. these are decent numbers. last two weeks in a row, bad numbers coming out on this. in kind of a mixed economic picture this is consistently the down side. the market should kind of like this a little bit. the only down side to that is if these numbers start to get hot, then we start worrying about a whole new set of problems which is tightenings, people not buying as much of the long end debt going forward. ten year a little lower because of that. yield curve steepen out lately. simple equation, the government promises to buy as much long in debt but certainly don't promise to sell any less. we saw that today with the health care, the $300 billion

debt ceiling raised. waeld see the yield curve steepened. the market probably likes this number. >> it's always that way, isn't it? the minute things start going well, then you have to do the flip side. >> the market doesn't want any change. and the change is going to be when the government's attitude changes a little bit. remember, we hate change. we'd like to keep it the way it is, the dollar weak, us buying the stock market up. but doesn't look like it will be that way in 2010. >> you can see the rates right now, jim. but you figure the stock market at this point, we'll worry about rates later probably. and we need -- everybody is talking jobs, jobs, jobs. what's up, steve? >> pretty good numbers here. let's go through the durables number. 0.2%, which ends up missing the expectation. but what you're going to find is ex-transpourtation up 2%. the reason, we've talked about this in the past. this is ultimately a boeing support. did boeing have new orders or ship new orders -- not boeing. didn't mean that.

nondefense aircraft and parts down 32% after being up 39%. it's a sequencing thing. we're not all that interested in it. general machinery up 3.35%. computers up, communication sls up, electrical equipment and transportation equipment overall down but a key number in here is the -- give you the long title, nondefense ex-capital good for aircraft, business investment up 0.8% -- i'm sorry up 2.9% after being down 2% the prior month. a decent number in terms of coming back -- >> overall good set of numbers. i think, again, we all know that the issue about sustaining expansion is one word, right? and that's jobs. >> jobs. >> and so the jobless claims numbers at this moment are important. and they continue four-week average basis. the numbers continue to look good. >> is it true that to get sustainable job growth, you need to have claims under four?

>> well, typically, they'll keep going down. but if you look back at '81, '82 recession, you had reasonably good job growth when you got down to 450. the jobs numbers, at 750 roughly in january, roughly florida flat in november. so you essentially had an improvement of 75,000 a month. if you're flat in november, that means you have a 200 plus number somewhere around february. and that is my wager. i think -- >> hold on a second. you say claims -- >> no, no, no. no, no. i'm talking about payroll employment. >> additional? >> orntion yeah, absolutely. >> shock you, wouldn't it, by february? >> i think earlier. i think november could be revised positive. statistically -- whether or not that's real job growth -- >> the last eight months. seven of the last eight months -- >> let me point out one thing and get bob's take on this. one of the key numbers that economists were looking for this

morning in the durable goods report is the inventory, that very exciting issue which was scintillating for carl and has been over the course of time. i'm making a joke. >> making a joke. >> making a joke. but here's the thing. a lot of the guys are saying a lot of the growth in the fourth quarter -- which by the way i saw a number this morning 4.7%. inventory down 0.2% for the month of november. does that change your outlook? is that what you expect? we're still liquidating. >> but look at the pace. you had a wild liquidation through the third quarter. >> wild? do you hear, that guys, it was wild, exciting. >> three-quarter average was down 1%. in '81-'82 it was 0.5%. double the liquidation rate of the two biggest recessions. that's supposed to deliver asnapback. my point is everybody agrees that we had a wild inventory liquidation.

we also had a wild employment liquidation. you fired people and you drew down inventories because you were panicked about cash. now that you have access to cash, everybody knows you have to rebuild inventories. i think you also rebuild employment. >> i'd hate to be -- everyone is rosy. i'll play the part p -- >> notice how far the shot is? very far back from you. we're discounting what you're saying. >> here's the negative spin, though. >> we have the grinch here. >> the negative spin is this. as much as the job growth government stimulated. to get a snapshot see what's going on this morning -- health care, raising the debt ceiling. this is a government that's not going to stop until they've pushed us in a direction at the expense of a weak dollar. so the stock market rallies today on the health care and on these numbers not because they think things are getting better. it's because they think the government isset on weakening the dollar further. it siems like we go into the first quarter. the stock market discounted a

recovery. the numbers are nice. the housing numbers weren't nice the other day. mixed bag. first quarter we don't have the real weak dollar that we were leaning on earlier. yes, it probably catches up to where it was before based on the government. but to me it seems like we're due for correction and not as rosy a first quarter. >> you're very negative. this is chicago's gift to the world. this is what you gave us for christmas. >> i think it's the reason we didn't get the olympics. >> scratch the whole thing i said. now i'm fine. >> the dollar a little stronger on this data. the dxy, 77.6 now 0.7. >> we can bask in that -- >> the dollar is going up. the dollar is going up -- you can't say the economy is better than i thought, the fed can take the punch bowl away, the dollar is going up. you can't then tell me what a disaster. that's what everybody has been praying for. >> we have to go. >> they keep raising the debt ceiling it could event actually be disastrous for the dollar. the only reason the dollar has

gone up is because problems in europe seem worse than here. >> bob, could you give us the numbers for the fourth quarter of next year? >> fourth quarter of next year? >> this year and next year. >> fourth quarter this year i'm a five, round number. write that down. and for the four quarters of next year, 3.8. >> 3.8. that's a number that can absorb the excess capacity when it comes to the labor market? >> in addition, one of the crazy things -- >> crazy, wild. >> we had 2 million nor jobs than you'd expect. i think the mean reverts and you get better job growth thaen the gdp numbers imply. >> don't you like the stretch snapback scenario bitter than we have all this hangover, all the things that weren't really fixed? >> if you have that as the forecasting methodology, right -- i have a steady forecast but then i want to list 50 things to worry about. if you use that as a methodology, you did that in '81, '82, '73, '74.

given this list of imponderables it's going to be weak. it's very, very appealing logically. it just doesn't work as a forecasting methodology. >> i like the sling shot. >> thank you for that. steve, bob, going to stick around. we'll talk more later today. "power lunch" you and me. >> unbelievable. >> only an hour, though. >> it's going to be wild. >> jobless claims 452, the lowest since '08 before lehman and manufacturing, ex-transportati ex-transportation, a sign that it continues to revive. the president expected to speak pretty soon before leaving for his hawaiian vacation. there's a look at the state dining room. live remarks in a minute.

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giving the gift that can keep on giving. stocks. >> ten stocks for 2010 for children under 10. >> look! >> give them the perfect present for the holidays. >> only at madmoney.cnbc.com. the president's expected to speak any minute now from the state dining room after the senate approved that health care bill 60-39. we think they'll talk about ten minutes. the most it starts, we'll bring it to you. if somehow you still haven't shopped for the holidays -- still wearing it -- our darren revel is here with his annual holiday gift guide. you could have picked a lot of things. you like to do this. >> i like to do this. you know i like the attention. i'll get to this. this is really functional here. i have a mix of some high end and low end stuff for you. i'll start with the high end in

icon a-5 plane. it can only fly up to 10,000 feet, 135 miles per hour. there is one drawback. i talked to them yesterday. they said they presold 362 of these things. so if you order today, you'll have to wait until 2014. then i'm going to go to -- everybody goes to these pool tables. i like the ping-pong tables, okay? this is the highest end one. it's called the killerspin revolution svr. it will cost you $2500. it's a ping-pong table but it's also -- we don't have the video of carl and i playing unfortunately. it's also a piece of art. i like that as well. finally, what i'm wearing right here, tun draf gear developed by a survival winner. 30 bucks for the hat. five bucks for the pin. it's interchangeable. and it is -- i mean, i'm

sweating in here. it is so hot. but this is perfect for the december, january, you know, football games. >> that doesn't come down. that doesn't -- come down. usually that's a snap and it comes down. >> but this is great, though. does have to be the authentic russian -- >> no, no. but normally the real dorky hats like that, that comes down. >> it's so ugly, it's cool. >> what's nice, again, is that people that usually watch us with sound off see that and are like, what are they doing? >> and they turn it up -- >> force you to listen. >> that's my job. >> 30 bucks. five for the pin p you can change out the pins. get a black hat, you can root for the packers and wisconsin badgers. change the pin out. it is amazing. people are cold at games. they go to games and they're cold, you know. >> you've been lately, right? and it was cold?

>> yeah. oh, yeah. if you're a jets fan, it's been cold about 40 years. >> it can be 80 years and you'd be sad and cold. >> the bengals are coming. >> bengals coming to play the jets? >> yeah, well -- >> in early january. may have to -- >> the jets will beat both the colts and the bengals now because of course -- >> it doesn't matter. >> it doesn't matter. >> you see the players the colts are starting. i know rex ryan wants the whole team to sit out. once again, the president we're expecting any minute to start speaking. the time scheduled was 8:45, which is just a few seconds away. we think he might be joined by the hss secretary kathleen sebelius. all of that after the senate did approve the health care bill by a vote of 60-39. let's get the trader's edge while we wait for that. ubs financial services. art, good morning. you look good. >> you like the tie, huh? >> yeah. i assume you're getting your

singing voice warmed up? >> yes, we're warming up. should be about 11:05 we'll be battling out nelly, our traditional song down here. >> during the "squall," get it, "sqawk" and "call." i'll be on with faber. >> we'll squeal while you squall. >> okay. >> any initial thoughts going into obviously this light trading volume day, art, whether it's durables or jobless claims, any of the stuff we got? >> no. i don't think -- the market is taking both in stride. i thought the jobless claims were better than some down here had feared. but the market seems to show virtually no reaction to it. so i think everybody has got their mindset on hanging their stocking up and listening for santa and the reindeer on the rooftop here. >> there must be some reaction, at least a little bit to what the senate has done this morning. >> well, there is, but not

economic, okay? the feeling is that the story of this health care bill -- first of all, we don't know what's going to happen until it goes into conference and see what comes out. so there is some hope that it may get re trimmed down. but we're hearing a lot of squealing from the states that this is going to cost them a lot of money in medicaid and other areas. so we'll have to wait and see if that becomes a tug on the economy. >> did yesterday do anything to change people's view about what the dollar may be trying to do here over the past week or so? >> yeah. well, yesterday, you know, there was a definite pullback. people thought maybe it was just coming out of an overbought conditions. the dxy up above 78 was a pretty impressive move. but, again, it will be about velocity. it helped the market a little yesterday, certainly helped oil out. we'll see what happens today. i think even the 4x traders are trying to take the day off. >> it's going to be interesting

day off. as we go into obviously the long christmas day weekend, art, i wonder -- you called it a long time ago, this bubbling notion of class warfare in this country. has it been as bad as you thought it would be back in march? >> yeah. i think it's there and you're seeing it rebubble up again, all this wall street versus main street talk. it is not going to be good for the country and may, in fact, begin to hamper the progress in things done. i mean, if we get back to work instead of finger pointing, i think things would be a lot better. but for now the politician sls seem a benefit in doing it. >> probably the best thing to cure that is if main street begins to look better. >> no question about it. but we have to wait to see that begin to happen. people are still talking about bailouts. they're still pointing fingers. i don't think it's very constructive. >> yeah. the debate continues as to whether or not -- the things that need to go right for this exit velocity, right? housing employment, industry

leading indicators? >> i think it's one word, jobs. we get the good jobs and you change the opinion about main street and then the heat comes off of wall street. if we're in a furious rally and main street continues to struggle, it's tough. >> and we'll also see -- >> the the president, so i have to say hi to my dad. hi, dad. >> i see the president is coming up. merry christmas. historic vote took place this morning. members of the senate joined their colleagues in the house of representatives to pass a landmark health insurance reform package. legislation that brings us toward the end of a nearly century-long struggle to reform america's health care system. ever since teddy roosevelt called for reform in is 9 is 2. time and time again, such efforts have been blocked by special interest lobbyists who have perpetuated a status quo

that works better for the insurance industry than it does for the american people. but with passage of reform bills in both the house and the senate, we are now finally poised to deliver on the promise of real meaningful health insurance reform that will bring additional security and stability to the american people. the reform bill that passed the senate this morning, like the house bill, includes the toughest measures ever taken to hold the insurance industry accountable. insurance companies will no longer be able to deny you coverage on the basis of a preexisting condition. they will no longer be able to drop your coverage when you get sick. no longer will you have to pay unlimited amounts out of your oven pocket for the treatments you need. and you'll be able to appeal unfair decision sls by insurance companies to an independent party. if this legislation becomes law, workers won't have to worry about losing coverage if they lose or change jobs. families will save on their premiums.

businesses that would see their costs rise if we do not act will save money now and they will save money in the future. in th. this bill will strengthen medicare and extend the life of the program. it will make coverage affordable for over 30 million americans who do not have it. 30 million americans. because it is paid for and curbs the waste and inefficiency in our health care system, this bill will help reduce our deficit by as much as $1.3 trillion in the coming decades, making it the largest deficit reduction plan in over a decade. as i've said before, these are not small reforms. these are big reforms. if passed, this will be the most important piece of social legislation since the social security act passed in the 1930s. and the most important reform of our health care system since medicare passed in the 1960s. what makes it so important is

not just its cost savings or its deficit reductions. it's the impact reform will have on americans who no longer have to go without a checkup or prescriptions that they need because they can't afford them, on families who no longer have to worry that a single illness will send them into financial ruin, and on businesses that will no longer face exorbitant insurance rates that hamper their competitiveness. it's the difference reform will make in the lives of the american people. i want to commend senator harry reid, extraordinary work that he did, speaker pelosi for her extraordinary leadership and dedication, having passed reform bills in both the house and the senate we now have to take up the last and most important step and reach an agreement on a final reform bill that i can sign into law. i look forward to working with members of congress in both chambers over the coming weeks to do exactly that. with today's vote, we are now incredibly close to making

health insurance reform a reality in this country. our challenge, then, is to finish the job. we can't doom another generation of americans to soaring costs and eroding coverage and exploding deficits. instead, we need to do what we were sent here to do and improve the lives of the people we serve. for the sake of our citizens, our economy, and our future let's make 2010 the year we finally reform health care in the united states of america. everybody, merry christmas. happy new year. >> do you have a holiday wish for the troops? >> i do, and i will be actually -- i'm on my way right now to call a few of them and wish them merry christmas and to thank them for their extraordinary service as they're posted in iraq and afghanistan. >> on that note, on this christmas eve day, the president putting the cap on this debate in this country, at least the formal, hard debate about health

care reform. the patient protection and affordable care act has been passed by the senate this morning to 60 to 39 vote, $871 billion bill, and, by far, the president's most serious political accomplishment, perhaps, of the year. our chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us this morning from d.c. where we've been following the vote all morning long. talks a lot about the things that democrats like, john, the exchanges, the 30 million insured, but it's not going down well with republicans this morning. they talk about not having 72 hours to read it, the christmas eve vote, the back dealings and so forth. how does it all come down this morning? >> reporter: well, the not having 72 hours to read it, that's total bologna. they're against the bill. but they've got arguments, substantive arguments that may be vindicated in the end on the costs of this bill. most pieces of social legislation end up costing more than projected at the time. they've got a good hand politically right now. the american people generally speaking if you ask them, do

you -- are you for this democratic health care bill or not, the republicans have the high side of that political argument, so democrats have a burden in 2010 to try to persuade the american people that they've done the right thing. that's the element you heard in the president's remarks there of talking in particular about what this does to change the relationship between patients and insurance companies. insurance companies are even less popular than politicians in washington and so that's a good response for the democrats, but there is by no means certainty that this is going to play out as a political benefit for the democrats in 2010. by the way, when you talk about accomplishments, i have to have a shoutout to my colleague in the white house who asked the only question that could have made the president stop as he was leaving that podium, which is do you have something to say to the troops? he stopped, turned around, and gave a quick response. >> he also was i thought quite dour. it's christmas eve and they won. want to give us a psycho babble interpretation of that? >> well, you're kind of dour if your christmas eve has been consumed with trying to get this

legislation through the senate when most people plan on having christmas eve with their families, but i think the president -- it worked out okay with the president. the challenge, though, is any time in politics, nobody has forgotten what happened to president bush with the mission accomplished banner behind him in war time. this president knows that 10% of the american people are unemployed and the real number is higher because there are people who aren't looking for work. people are not in a good mood about where this country is. so you've got to salute your accomplishments and say, we've done these good things but we're not done. and avoid making people think that you think that you've solved all their problems. >> john, thanks for the help this morning. >> you bet. >> nice work, john harwood in washington. coming up, bob has been making his list, checking it twice. final predictions for the new year, next. ♪ it's the best time of the year ♪