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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  January 8, 2010 8:00pm-8:30pm EST

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the market was stuck had had week, but there's still money to be made. this is "fast money." tech leading a market turn around today as traders including those here on this desk could not resist scooping up some google after a rough week. will tech continue to be your winning trade? we've been talking about google and the various entry points. karen, today being took advantage of one of those. >> google seems like it move as lot, but $600 stock, so there's been a little bit of volatility. i like the name. i'm happy to buy it as the noise from the next us ous one launch
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down. >> intra day almost at the 50 moving average. and it was a straight shot higher in terms of google. we were talking about itchy trigger fingers when it comes to technology because until today, we saw -- >> sorry. >> if goes in a different direction. >> put some cream on it, we are much better thousand. >> let's get it back on the -- until today, investors are still looking for places to garage some money. it's still going to those sweet spots. tech is one of them. it's going to be in tech, materials. it will continue to flow into those spots. energy, as well, until we find new leadership. it will be that way for at least the first quarter. >> and we talked last night.
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i don't care which way the market is going. pete did a great trade. i'm just look to go feat find where is the money going flow, so today i saw the money coming back in technology. karen last night made it great call talking about microsoft. it doesn't matter what the price is where you get in. microsoft is still a buy. microsoft, i bought emc and i still think that qualcomm trade is a great derivative play off of google. >> if it doesn't matter what the price is, what make you think to buy microsoft today in particular? >> because it is where is the opportunity in terms of capital going to flow. and there was some things that i was selling. i saw the opportunity of cash flow going into technology. >> amazon i thought was a buy, but i think the apple is going to be the kindall killer. there's probably $20 in amazon in the frth kindall, so the trade how is to be long apple,
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short amazon. >> i was told yesterday that the slate with microsoft will supplant the kip dal e-readndal. for 2010, the kindall and all the apps should be about 5% of revenues and if you think that apple will pressure that sort of revenue, that may not come to fruition there. so that's another reason perhaps. >> i'm not a fan of amazon only in terms of valuation that it's under pressure, it's off a little from a ridiculous level to a still ridiculous level even though it came in some. about i think that it's a great story, but it has so much hype. it cannot continue to have a 57 multiple when it's growing as quick as it is. eventually it will run out of
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things to sell. this is ridiculous, the valuation. so i agree pressure from the krin k kindall, valuation is the main pressure. >> weeks ago we had the option activity because of the fact that you had all the big he can it technology. so you get a little bit of a broad stroke across everything. you're talking about microsoft, intel, ibm. you're getting a little bit of what everybody on the desk has talked about and now it's through those levels. it's gotten through 23. it's now lithrough 23. i think when you're looking at google, you start talking about intel and hewlett, take a look at applied materials. they made all the equipment for the semiconductor industry. yesterday, huge activity going out buying the april upside calls. thousands of these were trading. well above the open interest paying 55 cents. so people are starting to
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believe in the chip cycle and that applied materials call buying really tells that you people are buying, institutional people. not me, not joe, not karen. i'm talking massive size that's clearly much bigger. >> brian was also highlighting a trade about selling intel puts. they're willing to get long at a lower price, but they in that trade and they'll stick with that trade through earnings. >> and we'll have to debate that because the one thing i have against that idea is when you look at intel right now, if you like it, i love it, but why would you sell puts right now when the volatility has been absolutely crushed? you're not getting any risk reward. if you believe in the upside, and you're not too nervous, why wouldn't you want to be a buyer. maybe do it in the form of some sort of a hedge. maybe it's a call spread, whatever it might be, but take advantage of this low volatility if you expect for intel to go higher. >> and the reason why
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fundamentally i'm so interested in owning technology is because of this morning's unemployment report. it clearly highlights that there's a divide. i want to rely on enterprise spending. i think we make the shift back from pent up extravagance to frugality again. >> so connect the dots in terms of employment report and spending on enterprise. is it the thought that they're not going to be hiring so they'll be spending on technology in that they need in. >> they will use enterprise spending as their way to improve productivity. >> let's move on here. before we leave technology do, not miss an exclusive interview that we have cooking for later on in the show live from ces in las vegas in the next half hour. meantime financials closing the day to the down side after citi found its estimates, jpmorgan apbank of america, a decline in
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trading revenues. they're spiskly saying 15% to 20% decline if fic revenues, which is much more bearish than the street. traders from around the desk, you were bullish and pete, yesterday we highlighted that you're buying in. >> i love the activity and it was institutional. this wasn't small activity. we're talking about yesterday trading over 800,000 contracts. a lot of that involved with the january 15 calls and rolling out to these february 16 calls. now, i know steve has talked about he has not seen the money come manage to the financial area and he can highlight more of that. i'm seeing it in the options area and this year so far, people are starting to use more and more in the way of leverage trying to go with the options route. i can't speak for the stock side of it, but the options side, the other day we traded 19 million contract, 17 million contracts, today 14 million contracts. the volumes are there to assume t support the idea there is real money driving the markets.
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i still haven't bought that protection. >> you've been talking that for days. >> i have lost my sense of discipline. but i did want to use that as a reference guide to what i believe in the financials, as well, and with the s&p. i believe in this mutual fund monday. but today we had that turn around and i expect to see the good strong damon. >> the institutions do own them to pete's point. takes cheaper way as you said in the halftime show to get exposure through options. they do own them on all those capital raises. so instead of adding to their positions, they're more apt to wait and see what the financials do, prove themselves over the next quarter or so and put to a higher beta trade. >> and that's what you're doing. >> i am buying jp more morgan calls. they expire on the same day that they report. so keep that in mind, but do you get the earnings. it will also be a bellwether for the other financials and the
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market in general. so that will be an important day. for me, that's short term trade. long term, i do love bank of america. i think not for this week or this quarter's earning, but over the long term -- >> bank of america is a recovery trade. that's why people bought it. but when you look at the other one, you have to get back to a normalized earning state. but when you downgrade the broker, people can give bank of america a pass longer than they can jpmorgan or goldman sachs. >> it's a different business model. for jpmorgan, it's more of a hybr hybrid. bank of america is a different model than gold mman sachs. >> and that's why they were gaining bids this morning. people were buying mana ining b america. >> is that why you're long bank of america is this. >> it was my first move 2010.
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what i've done is sell co-america. they do not have the same business model. i actual a little bank of america today. a little bit more slanted now to being short, bialso in addition to that i sold one of the trading exchanges because everyone is so concerned about trading revenues and about the ability to drive revenue in a low volatility environment, i would think that vol uumes on t ice exchange, i can see the volumes in crude are much less. >> and we saw 19% declines in trading volumes. you probably saw it there on the floor of the stock exchange, also. >> and at one point we saw snag i have pot seen in the last ten years. gold futures had more volume than oil futures. i have not seen that. it tells you that an exchange that's what made me sell ice because all their revenue is
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coming from oil. volatility coming in. >> let's move to the next trade. the jobs report, we got that. disappointing numbers there, but then we got the news out of u.p.s. and that was a little bit better than expected. raising their guidance. we should note that they were able to raise their shipping rates for 2010. they raised it by an average of 4.9% and that's also a positive. how are we to interpret all of this in terms of what we're hearing from the jobs report and then on the other hand we have the u.p.s. news which sent the transports as well as the airline index to 52 week highs. >> getting back to the high beta trade, people are buying the automobiles and the institutions are buying the airlines. they're not so much loading up on the u.p.s. and fedex. take was an anomaly. i don't see the money flow. after the first quarter, they will return back, but they're not there yet. >> you're a little bit more positive. you think u.p.s. is a good barometer. >> we have talked about the fact that they do have a lot of international exposure, so you
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can't discount that but nonetheless, it is giving you a little bit of a sense, a little bit of a hope that not everything is awful. i think the job cuts, that's why it may be a bit of a concern when you're talking about that's what they highlighted. it kind of plays into the idea that people are putting money in different way, not towards gaining employment, but getting more efficient. and technology spending, and other warks but not necessarily on the jobs front. >> and didn't buy into this because you were selling -- >> no. it's all about increased productivity. if you look at the airlines, i believe that all the good news is priced in. jpmorgan raised continental airlines yesterday. i was a several of continental airlines today. if you look back on q4, higher energy prices, operating costs to me will be hire. i do not believe the airlines can go anywhere as karen said last night but down. >> we actually highlighted when you got short continental airlines and i want you to walk through here because it looked
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like intra day it was so an uptick. how did you decide at that point to then go short? number one, i was looking at oil prices. it looks to me like oil remains sticky, remains high. and in addition to that, continental, i'm watching the volumes coming in this morning. saw significant booig. i would have thought it would be a much better performance to the upside than it was. a lot of institutional selling there. >> let's talk about those steel names. us steel rallying 7%, ak steel soaring 9%. a lot of takeover chatter. we saw earlier steel dynamic, call activity about five times its average daily volume there. anything stand out in your mind in this? >> i think you look at the perform achbts coal stocks and steel stocks. unbelievable. i iron ore, keep an eye on that.
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and then when you look at some of the other name, one i did add just a couple days ago was tech resources before i've liked that name. finally i decided i'll probably get taken out of cliffs because i've sold some upside calls. same thing with freeport. we talked about putting on a hedge. i'll probably get taken out of that. so i wanted to have some exposu exposure. patriot coal was the name today. not necessarily focusing on steel. this is more geared towards the folks leaning towards thermal coal. the call activity out there today, absolutely off the charts. traded over 61,000 contracts total on the call side. normally it trades around 13,000. so gives you a little idea of just how much. januarys really was the focus. so if indeed if you talked about takeover chatter, who know, but people are definitely expecting more upside there. but if it's january, that has to happen by next friday or else those options go out. >> and that call play may be
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your best weather trade. i was trying to play natural gas. that's a phenomenal trade off weather. >> do they get the gain off spot prices or is the coal locked up in a contract? >> some of them have some of the contracts out there. it just depends on each individual name how much they've sold out in to the future. >> getting back to steel, i've traded that with a portfolio manager who has been spot on. he said it gets a little pricier at the 70, 72 level. as speed said, tighter scrap metal, iron ore prices going higher, on on top of the inventory demand, all bullish, but time to get out. >> let's check on the inbox, we have a message from david. fft fft . >> i like all these various
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names. i know joe loves qualcomm. i still like if you're going to look at all the names, i love intel. if they're going to get to the point $1.50 at earning, we'll find out a lost more next week, but that stock's too cheap and i love the fact that it pays a dividend. >> david, you have your answer. coming up next, your trading set up for next week's big earni earnings.
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time for fast action. even if you don't trade puts or calls, knowing what's happening can be the difference between
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make and losing money. reading the tea leaves, brian, you're hearing a lot of chatter out there in alcoa, not just because it's the first one out of the gate. >> people are getting excited about it. earnings coming up. i got to say, you know i spend most of my time trading the vehicle vics. we saw a ton of january 17 calls. 16,000 of those traded. i had people calling me asking what's going on over there. i wanted to check it out and there's definitely activity going on. >> you used to be a market maker, so what is your trade? >> i spent many years watching alcoa. it's always the first to kick off earnings season. i was actually doing today taking a look at the january 16 call. trading for about a buck ten. it moved a little bit higher by the end of the close. not a lot of time premium in that call. it's strictly a play for
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earnings. that's why i'm using the january call. $1.10. your break even is 17.10 on the stock there and you get to participate on the upside. there's lot of bullishness going on in the basic materials. you take a look at the ism numbers. very bullish. but i want to have a little defined protection. i also get a little bit of le g eventual on that play. >> i'm hoping for a bullish earnings report from ale company a becau alcoa because i want to sell as much as i can. tell me why i'm not crazy. why you're not. take you a look at those ism numbers and the materials, they're moving. there's manufacturing is increasing. it's an area that alcoa is in and i think they're poised to do very well. the stock has moved up. there's probably about a 14.5
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dollar floor on it. >> real quick, how bin tell, what's your feeling going into those earnings next week? >> i'm buildillish on that. we saw somebody sell some january puts meaning they're willing to get long stock at $20. and in the meantime they collect some premium if intel doesn't actual back. >> volatility is pretty low. >> i don't necessarily advise putting that trade on myself. i didn't do that myself today. i'd rather see the stock pull back a little bit and then get involved in it. maybe a call spread or just buy the stock outright. certainly bullish activity in there. >> brian, thanks for your time and analysis. pete, you got your answer there. short term it will spike and then come right back in. >> a little bit of trade school. this is why you want to put orders in before the earnings report or after the earnings
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report. 17. 77, that's the price i want to sell it. >> we want to ask you what you're doing, so time for our fast money poll of the day. are you following the trend, buying alcoa into earnings? logon to fast money.cnbc.com and tell us what you think. final trade after this. final trade after this. ngry for ideas. trading is all about strategy. and strategy... is all about information. heat mapping shows me where the money's moving. twenty five hundred stocks... one quick look. that's where the action is. plus, this amazing gadget... it's called the telephone. i can call td ameritrade anytime and talk trades, strategy... anything. td ameritrade. built by traders, for traders. this is what i need. announcer: trade commission free for 30 days, plus get 100 dollars cash, when you open an account.
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many investors buy stocks for their difference tends, but luns you reinvest, you might as well put the cash in a piggybank. the move, drips. reinvest your dividend in company stock at little our no cost. that gives you more share, redid you says your cost basis and allows your money to piggyback on the potential growth of your stock. so reinvest. class dismissed. it is time now for the final trade. let's go around the horn. >> awfully cold out there. frontier oil. >> ford on momentum. brum, brum. >> sticking with the auto trade, axl. >> i'm going with the liquidator about the scold tough.
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patriot coal. >> that does it for us. coming up next, "options action." advisor:... ms. davis, this is onstar.

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