tv Mad Money CNBC January 28, 2010 6:00pm-6:35pm EST
6:00 pm
6:02 pm
>> i'm jim kramer. welcome to my world. >> you need to get into the game. >> they're nuts! they know nothing! >> there's a bull market somewhere. >> this is "mad money." you can't afford to miss it. >> i'm jim cramer. other people want to make friends. no thanks. trying to help you make money. my job is also to entertain, educate. call me. 1-800-743-cnbc. i never want to come out here on any given night and say i don't like this market. but you know what, i really don't like this market. the sad fact is that we should be going higher, maybe even a lot higher. we're getting lots of good news. strong earning reports from 3 m, projector and gamble today, apple and boeing earlier in the week. it doesn't matter.
6:03 pm
we simply cannot get any lift. we just keep getting hammered. s&p 500 off another percent. dow falling another 116 points. although it's worth noting that we were down as much as 181 points at one point. let me tell you what's going on. people, big money trigger pullers, all of whom i used to -- many of whom i used to pal around with know what they're thinking during the days when i ran a hedge fund. they are looking for reasons to sell. and when that happens, you better believe they will convince themselves that selling is the prudent thing to do. it becomes very self-fulfilling. some of this fear that is inspiring the selling is because the president is perceived as not being a friend to the shareholders. some believe he can't afford to
6:04 pm
a friend because we have so many issues. i call that the charitable obama. some of it is china. but what matters the most is when investors try to convince themselves to -- >> sell, sell, sell. >> -- they will conduct zuk seed in doing so. we sold off because of worries, probably don't even know why -- we you know why we sold off? because of worries about the greek bond market. and i'm not talking about fraternity row. greek bond market caused people to panic out of all sorts of financial assets and start thinking along the lines of the famously cur muj john stock stage van morrison in "oh dom o domino" as in spain and portugal are the next to fall. the government is saying they won't default, but of course that's what you would say no matter what. no chapter would say boy, we're
6:05 pm
dufuses and going chapter 11. or whatever the greek word is for chapter 11. frankly, it's all greek to me when you look at it like that. >> you can crack up the book on greece. how big is it? bigger than dubai? how much debt do they have? who owns it? who can bail it out? heck, you can go to the part nonfor all i can. you can measure how a gyro stacks up to a philly cheese steak for all i care. they're not doing homework. they're just selling. maybe next it will be bull jar yeah budget deficit. this leads us to a more important fact of the market. look, the fact is that people want to sell. and ours is not to question why. ours is just to sell or die. that's right, unless you have to
6:06 pm
be annihilated like the spartan s at thermopole. it's not a focus at all, it's just a pretext. focus is i've got to sell something. it feels awful out there. look, if i were back at my old hedge fund, you know what i would do? i would call one of those dreaded staff meeting, all right? it would just be a terrible staff meeting. everybody would know it's coming. i would never let anyone sit down and say all right, right now, get out and find me a reason. give me a reason to justify all the selling i'm doing right now. i need a reason. my junior researchers would then scramble for a reason. they knew i would throw water bottles at them if they got it wrong. don't worry, they were always the plastic ones. soon, one of my researchers would come back and say jim, how
6:07 pm
about greece? i would say hey, good enough reason to sell. i never liked john travolta, olivier newton john. we should sell. then the intern would say no, i'm talking about greece the country. i would have said what the heck. that's even more of a reason to dump stocks than my least favorite tune. ♪ look at me i'm sandra dee ♪ >> that song could cost 100 dow points in a pronto. anyway, do we worry about if this is a greek tragedy or a greek comedy? when you see people putting up boards on window, you could say hey, they don't know what they're doing. or you could say maybe a hurricane is coming. why take a chance? let's do some evacuation of the dance floor. also it isn't like you're going to miss something. we're still nicely above dow 10,000.
6:08 pm
so why got caught in the storm. now i'm always mindful of not doing things at once. i'm aware the state of the union speech did not subscribe the vast goldman sachs conspiracy to rule the world. i'm also glad the president didn't kick time geithner to the curb. quite a feat because he doesn't look like mick jagger. instead, the president actually embraced him. no wonder the bank stockings staims staged a rally today in the miserable trading action. it looks like with that embrace of geithner, the worst of the attacks on the group may be over. and even though geithner has been tough on the bank, forcing them to raise equity when they didn't want, he somehow has been lumped in as a tool, a stooj of the protocols of the elders of the goldman. we're also thrilled about the progress of fed chairman's ben bernanke's renomination. remember, those of you who have been shrewd enough to get back
6:09 pm
to even, we like the guy. we even dedicated the darn book to him. ben "better late than never" bernanke who's doing his best to save the western financial world and could go down as the greatest fed chairman in history. nor do we want to get too negative all at once. abbott labs was great. they all delivered fabulous quarters. bristol myers had a terrific quarter. but the unsupported president who seems to think what's good for wall street is the enemy of your 401(k) and 529 -- nothing could be further from the truth -- and the mandated slowdown within the powerful economy, maybe the most powerful economy on earth, china, makes me think that earnings will not be enough to get us out of this mess. and as you know this show is often talking about the greatness of american companies. as for greece, it is the time and the place and the motion of locking in profits. the bottom line, i will always
6:10 pm
challenge the conventional wisdom on "mad money." but right now, we need protection a lot more than we need hope. this is not a dip to be bought. the sellers are too powerful, too willing to embrace any pretext like greece, which at another moment would be barely a side show. it doesn't mean the sky is falling, but it does mean you need to get more defensive. and as i've been saying since the massachusetts special election, it's just too early, too likely that you'll pick up the paper tomorrow morning or any day in the near future and know that your portfolio is going to get hammered for something you never saw coming. no, don't sell everything. please lighten up in the strength. until the front pages stop trumping the business pages. and we stop worrying about oh, those winter nights. james in south carolina. james? >> caller: boo-yah from the great state of south carolina. >> what's shaking there, partn r partner? >> caller: last night, the
6:11 pm
president mentioned funding for the development of a high-speed rail system wh we shich we so by need. that being said, what would be a realistic time frame for its implementation and more importantly, what golden nuggets or stocks would you recommend for such a plan? >> this is one of those thing where is i know someone in the administration will say that darn cramer, what a joker he is. but the answer is, there are no plays. it's only $8 billion concentrated in three states and it won't be until 2012. if you're going to factor that in, factor in if it's going to rain tomorrow, which i consider to be a little more substantive. >> caller: i would like to know what you think about arm holdings? >> i like the stock. it is indeed part of the internet tsunami. it's one that's not talked about nearly enough because of its foreign exposure, but i got to tell you something, we liked it. i believe we liked it at $9.
6:12 pm
it's still there. it's not too late. this is a company that i believe has got some of the best microprocessors of the future. so let's own it. little speculative. let's go to peter in my home state of new jersey. peter? >> boo-yah from south jersey. >> eagle fan no doubt. what's up? >> caller: i've got a concern about ex-dividends date. if i execute an after-hours trade, do i get the dividend payment before that quarter? >> off to do it by the must-own date. if you want the must-own day, you've got to -- please, i did a whole chapter about this in "getting back to even." and you must own the stock. but remember, you're not going to be able to buy the stock in after-hours. you have to buy it during market hour. all right, dow down 116. we have to stop worrying about greece. i'm not talking about the greek line producer. our line producer is george,
6:13 pm
he's greek. i don't mean anything about that. is it gyro or gere-o. please let me know? now it's time to get more defensive. don't get aggressive. why does everybody like that play so much? coming up, tech supermarket? with the world still buzzing over the ipad, cramer takes a pulse on tech to see if you can connect your portfolio with profits. and later, climate change subpoena high on president obama's priority list. >> providing incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future. >> what's up with cap and trade? kramer is going on one one with dominion ceo for answers. plus, cash car? with the autos having closed many dealerships, who's in position to profit. we're talking to monroe muffler to see if they can jump start your portfolio.
6:17 pm
a company i hope to get on your radar screen reported better than expected earnings. but the stock went down 3.2%. why do we care about avnet it? 's a technology distributor that deals with both components and final finished products for everything you need to know about technology. it has got its finger on the pulse of the tech sector. with at better sense of how technology companies are doing from networking to nuts and bolts semis. in my old hedge fund i used avnet as a way to gauge the true
6:18 pm
health of the technology industry. i feel that way now more than ever. avnet has broad exposure to many of the sub themes that go into the mobile internet tsunami. it's the distribution channel. we like xylynx. it works with hewlett-packard and ibm. it recently signed an agreement for cisco in north america. my charitable trust owns share in cisco. it's been a winner. so what do we think of avenue net? the company is expecting annual growth in the market and sells over the next three years. the quarter is good. things are positive in the future of tech. what's the selling off for. is there something i'm missing. let's hear from avnet ceo roy
6:19 pm
vallee. >> good to be here. >> i feel like you ought to sell tech in february. that does not seem right this time, does it. >> it doesn't to me. >> why are things so strong in a world where all we ever hear about is how bad the economy is, that you can come on the show and forecast growth when everyone else is saying they don't see any? >> i think there's two things going on, jim. in the i.t. space we play in, there's been a pent-up demand in 2009 as companies were reluctant to let go of their cash. as we get into the back half of '09 that pent-up demand was met by increased liquidity in the capital markets and they're now spending in an increase in capital expenditures. >> your company always had a good handle in the after-market. is the information technology sector for the financial world, which has just been decimated. those companies haven't spent a thing since 2008. would that be one of the end markets that you think a lot
6:20 pm
oyour product might end up going into? >> i think as the year unfolds. i do think there will be increased spending in financials and even during 2009 where the consolidations were occurring, they had to spend money on technology in order to absorb these properties. >> thing's going to be a big quick. i really -- kick. that will surprise to the upside. tell me what it's like to be able to do the kind of -- how does avnetwork with a company like cisco? i know how you work with all the different brands of chips. what's different? >> in our i.t. distribution center, focused on data solution prks we work with ibm, hewlett-packard, formerly sun, now oracle. as cisco introduced its product, it needed to get that product into the data centers in the mid market customers that we serve. so we were a natural partner for them.
6:21 pm
>> now, i was surprised when i was doing the work today. i always felt i know avnet. you're only 24%, that's up more from what i remember, 24% in asia pl couldn't you grow for five or six years in asia and still not be peak there had? >> oh, i think absolutely, jim. maybe even ten years. by the way, in our components business, we're now in the 33, 4% range coming out of the asia, but our i.t. gizbusiness is jus gre creeping up to 10% there. >> off crystal clear balance sheet. what am i missing? what you r h how come the market doesn't evaluate tech even though it's accelerating and not going down? >> i it's something. >> tom always talked about how
6:22 pm
avnet should get a premium evaluation. you do such a good job and such a good flow. yet a market that gives you a 12 p/e. it doesn't make sense to me. >> yeah, it's especially concerning, i suppose, considering we have consistent ly made a return on capital. >> there's a company called qualcomm. here's a company that literally had been forecasting tremendous growth. qualcomm delivered a good quarter but then gave terrible guidance. it sent the whole sector down. i don't know if you have business with qualcomm or not, but do you think that's rational to send the whole semiconductor industry down huge today because of one company's particular guidance? i'm trying to get people to understand that tech shouldn't all trade together. >> jim, we don't do a lot of business with qualcomm. we do sell a few parts to them. we don't distribute their semiconductor products into the
6:23 pm
cellular handset space, but i think it is very wrong to pull down the whole tech sector because there's growth everywhere i look. our i.t. business was well above seasonal patterns here in the december quarter and our semiconductor business is very, very strong. >> can you talk to me about what you see in terms of a concept we' been trying to bring to people literally for nine months because we think it's so powerful. this mobile internet tsunami. we at skywork solutions had david aldridge on yesterday. he's talking about ault new devices, i have not been able to smash open an ipad, but these devices are chalk full of intellectual property. is this a bigger wave? a bigger wave for technology and semis than the initial pp.c.? is this possibly the biggest of all? >> i think it is possible, jim. our components business in asia, which is most of those devices
6:24 pm
are manufactured grew about 35% last quarter, based on a year on year basis. really dramatic growth. and that's, by the way on a $3 billion base. there's so many different kinds of devices that all participate in this mobile internet tsunami. >> one last question. i have been, like many people, i'm on chris matthews show this weekend. and i'm kind of like everyone is talking about how the united states is slow. you made a very, very pointed comment in your conference call which just finished where you talked about that the u.s. is actually getting stronger. how can you explain the disconnect between what i heard last night in the president's state of the union about how things aren't so strong and all the doom and gloomsteres and your u.s. business is picking up here? >> jim, i think one thing is that technology is leading this recovery. and i don't think that's been true since the tech bubble burst back at the beginning of last decade. so i think there's pent-up
6:25 pm
demand for technology and we're seeing it. our i.t. business in america grew by double digits on a year on year basis. >> that's why i like tech and i'm going to keep pushing it. roy vallee, great to have you on here. you do have the pulse on this whole industry. thanks so much. those of you crying in your beer about qualcomm thinking it's all over, mr. vallee has a better handle on it than qualcomm who has no handle on it at all. i feel better. technology is leading us, all right? do you have any tech in your portfolio? remember, one of our themes for the beginning of the year 2010, you must own tech. you've got to own some foreign, gold, homeland security, and natural gas. i feel better about tech after that miserable qualcomm quarter. after the break, try to make you more money. coming up, climate change is high on president obama's priority list. >> providing incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future. but what's up with cap and trade. cramer is going one-on-one with
6:26 pm
6:27 pm
now? you don't have enough time... and you have to push all those buttons... no buttons, someone answers every time. yeah, right... bet you a massage... yeah, ok. hi, julie... i have a question about my points. hi, what button do i press for a massage? hello? new chase sapphire... you call. we answer. no waiting. just press right here... go to chase.com/sapphire. chase what matters.
6:29 pm
in this market, you need to look at every stock through the prison. of president obama and what some regard as his anti-shareholder policies. if you want to avoid getting burnt. utilities used to be the easiest stocks in the world to invest in. many could buckle under the pressure of the cap and trade energy plan. mentioned it again last night in the state of the union, to reduce carbon emissions. i got to tell you, if it passes congress, the world is going to be very different. not all of the utilities are equally in danger. take one when he we've been recommending for a long time, dominion resources. it's one of the largest producers and transporters of energy in the country. the midwest, mid-atlantic, northeast, just reported fourth quarter results this morning. i thought they looked darn good. under a cap and trade, the worst
6:30 pm
hit utilities will be the ones with the most kold coal. dominion is 457% coal. it could be worse, but of course it could be better. it's also 42% nuclear. that's an ultra clean fuel the president endorsed last night. the company also has some wind projects going. very forward-looking utility. dominion beat the street's estimates by 3 cent. the company gave it a dividend boost so it yields 4.9%. the stock down in today's miss ral able is still just two points off of its 52-week high. i want to find out how much we should be worrying about this. i also want to talk about a program that this board has, the only one i know where the company is requiring directors to buy stock. that's my kind of company. so let's hear from tom farrell, the ceo of dominion resources. >> great to be with you.
6:31 pm
>> when i hear cap and trade, i immediately fear for utilities that are currently constructing coal plants. when i look at what you're doing, i see a coal plant on the horizon. do you feel like holy cow, that was a mistake to build the virginia -- you know, the -- you should not be building that coal plant right now, the virginia city hybrid senter? >> jim, we started construction on that plant 18 months ago. it's going along very well. it's on time, on budget. it will add almost 600 megawatts of power production to our system in 2012. it is carbon capture storage compatib compatible. it's ready to go. we're working with a local university down there at virginia tech with their professor to find seams nearby where we will be able to store carb carbon. if the carbon legislation come ace long or the epa goes in that direction. so that plant was a very forward-looking plant.
6:32 pm
uses a very low fluidized bed type of technology that keeps emissions at a very low level in the first place. >> are you concerned that a lot of the engineer construction companies we have on the show do not right now think that carbon capture is feasible? >> carbon capture is physically possible. it's been done for year, particularly in the gas fields to help get gas out and oil out. there's a couple of pilot projects under way right now. but overall, dominion is carbon neutral. carbon legislation neutral because of our gas transportation assets our l and g importation facility, our nuclear assets in new england and the midwest and virginia. we looked at this, analyzed it all sorts of ways and we think we come out neutral, maybe slightly positive in almost any carbon regime. >> that's precisely why i have
6:33 pm
been recommending your stock. you do have nuclear exposure. i heard the president say nuclear last night. let's see if he really goes into it. a company that's 4 % nuclear production like your company has to feel like maybe we should start building nuclear plants. i got the one line throw-away. is this any different from what we've had in this plant for two decades? a lukewarm endorsement of the cleanest fuel there is?'. >> it didn't sound like a lukewarm endorsement to me, but there's no possible way you can go toward with a carbon reduction program without a significant nuclear build here in the united states. they're being built all over the world today. >> i know. >> we're working hartford in the united states. dominion is looking hard at adding a third reactor to our
6:34 pm
north anna assets here in virginia. we filed a combined license per fit. we're working hard to see if we can go forward with that. from the go ahead to using it is at least seven or eight years. >> you had a pretty darn good quarter, given the fact that the economy is slow. i have been marveling that utilities -- all my life, i never thought about whether the gross domestic product mattered. but it's difficult now to beat numbers with an economy slow because people cut back on use, don't they? >> they certainly do. we're blessed in a way, dominion is, to have our electric util y utility, which is a little bit less than half our earnings is in virginia where virginia's unemployment rate is less than 7%. the national average is 10 and slightly above. we have a high concentration of
6:35 pm
federal government, military installations, washington, d.c. suburbs, and a strong state government here in richmond. so we've within able to weather the storm a little bit better than in m of our colleagues in the industry. >> you're a forerunner to the marcellus shale. it is the saudi arabia of pennsylvania and northern tier new york. you sold some acreage. am i thinking the values have peaked? because you're a pretty shrewd judge of what you should be buying and what you should be selling. >> well, i hope we are. but we farmed out 100,000 acres last year. we have another 450,000 plus acres that we have under lease t
181 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBCUploaded by TV Archive on
