already sold off. we talked about it the other day. it's in a level where you can own valuations. it's a good quarter. >> i think there are phenomenal numbers. when you look at guidance, first quarter sales to increase 23%. like guy just said, it has sold off significantly to a level. you have a great point of reference, a name you want to own. the market and the stock is responding properly in after hours. >> what does this do for technology overall? >> guy hit this right on the head. this is the first large cap tech stock that opened up higher after good numbers and continues to trade higher. the trend is clearly different than what it was when the nasdaq names were so overowned and people were just looking to take profits as we told you they would be in january. this is a change. >> let's get through some of the headlines that are crossing that are moving the stock right now. we mentioned the ceo john chambers mentioned that capital spending recovery is very strong. they're also seeing balanced growth across regions and across businesses. it's not just one region in the world, like asia, for instance,

leading us higher. equally strong across the board, pete. that would be good for the domestic picture for these companies focused in the united states. >> and he talked about the improvements across every part of their business model tells you that right now cisco is in the sweet spot. not just here but globally. they're doing everything right right now. you've got to like the direction. when the carriers have to start upgrading, which they will, and there's a lot of money being allocated by all the major carriers, at&t and verizon and all the rest of them, that's where they're really going to start hitting the home runs. that's why q3, q4 getting into the latter part of 2010, there's a lot of excitement off this conference call. >> want to go to silicone valley where our man jim goldman is standing by. jim, you're hearing that chambers is very excite right now. >> here's a guy who is typically optimistic. we've had him on the air a lot. we've all talked to him a lot. i've been listening to cisco conference calls for the better part of a decade. i have never heard language like this from john chambers using words like "major improvement"

and "a significant acceleration," a "dramatic recovery." and the improvement we're talking about is across board. across all product lines, across all geographies. we're so focused on that eps number, that revenue number, that 9 paraleg$9.8 billion rever is arguably the bigger story here as well as the non-gaap gross margin of 68.75%. both of these metrics are absolutely key when you're talking about improvement and where cisco goes from here. when you're looking at the q3 number we're talking about of 23% to 26% year over year, the street was at 1% sequential growth. this is like 2% or 4% or 6%, talking about a significant increase here. >> jim, did he point to anything right here in the united states, a specific spot, a specific business where he is seeing the most acceleration of the growth just yet? >> i'm sure that will come up in the q and a, which is just beginning as we speak. we're still in the prepared comments part. i guarantee you we're going to

talk about -- we're certainly going to hear where that specific strength is coming from and maybe which customers this is coming from. there's been a lot of focus thus far on what this company has seen overseas. save for emerging markets, which were essentially flat, the rest of this company's geographies have been particularly strong. and this bodes well. that 4% pop we're seeing in the stock, you know, we saw all those other big cap teches give those big rallies away. i don't know if necessarily that's going to happen this time around. cisco might be able to sustain it. >> you're going after the larger tech trade. ibm reported. we had jim on when ibm reported. we said not so easy this time around. probably trade down to 124. it overshot a little, traded down to 122. you have it firmly around 124 and closed at 125. ibm, baseded on what's going on, is a name you want to take a look at, especially if you're bullish in the broader market. >> jim goldman keep us posted. keep on that conference call for the 11th year or so. do want to talk about the rest

of the tech trade. if you believe in the cisco story, you believe in the notion there will need to be updates to the system. there's $20 billion of equipment that need to be replaced, cisco equipment specifically that needs to be replaced oifr the next five years or so, this according to pacific crest out there. if you believe that all of this data has to go over the internet, has to be transmitted through wireless carriers, you are a believer in the story of cisco. therefore, you might be a believer also, pete, in the juniper story, in the broken story, in the hewlett-packard/comstory out there. i think juniper is a name. we saw earnings last week. that's a name that will absolutely get dragged along kicking and screaming maybe. they are the sektd fiddle. certainly, they should see a big boost on this as well, as well as broad com, as well as the chip sector that feeds into the server. >> i don't think the fundamental story of technology changed at all throughout the entire earnings season. the enterprise earnings demand, it was there. it was what the sentiment was all about in technology. i went to an investment

conference with merrill lynch in connecticut. everyone was scratching their head, questioning me about the performance of technology during the year. it made me wonder coming back to new york that everyone basically is getting nothing more than shaken out of a good overall thesis and a great trade. you want to be in technology, but you have to understand what the sentiment of the street is. when they over own it, just like gary says, they sell it off. that's an opportunity to buy it. you now are at that point, cisco tells you that. >> at the same time, guy, for instance, do you think the cisco story tonight is as strong, or do you think the ibm story or microsoft story is as strong? seems to be much stronger. they hit it out of the park. >> they did. they crushed. look at microsoft's earnings. look at ibm's earnings, intel's earnings. they're very good. cisco's earnings were great. i don't think it's that much better than anybody we saw. the good thing that happened to cisco is the last report. the stock's already been sold off. >> what may appear tomorrow is those cisco createded this other

leg up in technology. it may just be the factor of the timing. it may just be the names were oversold, they were the last to report, and they did not disappoint. i listened to those cisco calls ten years ago, '99/2000. jim chambers was the guy giving every quarter we're going to grow 50% more than we thought we were. there was a period. i don't think we're anywhere near where we were there. all this competition for hardware, software, for the carriers, you need to have the backbone. you need to have the plumbing. that's what cisco is about. that's why this is a good way, if you want to be in the space, to play it. >> and the one aspect of this report, i think, is distinguishable, yes, they rushed on every metric, just like ibm, just like intel, just like everybody else. but next quarter, some of the growth numbers are outstanding. jimmy touched on it. i know joel's going to touch on it. the growth was not anticipated at 23%, 26% as he brought up. >> absolutely not.

it was anticipated at 16%. i think gary is going to buy some gs tomorrow when the market opens. >> we have to go back again. where is the broad market going, up or down? i don't think it matters. this year it's all about stock picking and measuring the sentiment. melissa, you like katy perry, the song "hot and then cold." that's what the tech sector is all about. one minute you're hot, one minute you're cold. technology lines up perfectly as a sector that had graelt fundamental strength underpinning it but technically was selling off. >> let me make a quick important point. if you were a manager and you underweighted technology through january because you did take profits. when you go into your meeting tomorrow morning and you think, oh, cisco now means it's an all clear sign to buy technology, you're going to buy the largest, most liquid names to get that technology waiting up. that's how you're going to do it tomorrow. that's what they always do. >> who's katy perry? >> i thought joe was going to

talk about "i kissed a girl." that's katy perry. >> i don't have it on my iphone. >> you know there's an app for music on the iphone. let's talk about the broader markets today because we did snap a two-day rally here. the big question here today was the global growth story. we saw commodity names. specifically copper really getting crushed today. joe, you alerted us to the fact that copper was going below $3 a pound today on very, very heavy volume. >> significant volume around 11:00. copper broke below $3. that tells you, despite the risk on, risk off, it was basically risk off in the commodities base. it's related to what you're seeing in the dollar right now. the dollar is getting strength. tonight the ecb meets to see whether they're going to move rates or not. right now the euro is under pressure. that is giving strength to the dollar itself. copper is going to be under pressure within the commodity space. however, i would say this. do not lose sight of where oil may go. oil, i believe, is the best trade out there. the ad names, those came back

today as well. while copper is selling off, i think the remains some opportunities in commodities space where you don't want to play them from the short side. remember, these are names i think go higher. >> one of those opportunities might come from steel. i was looking at u.s. steel today, letter x, and we talk about this name all the time. november 30th got an upgrade. traded at $43 a share. went on the conviction buy list. by january 11th, this is a $66 stock. they were removed from the conviction buy list at goldman sachs on the 22nd when it was $57. now the stock is trading $47. today an incredible amount of upside calls, more than available open interests. they were buying upside calls near february looking for near term. they only got two weeks and a couple days for this to work. thinker buying february 9 calls. expecting to see maybe a little bounce. maybe not a return to 57, maybe not towards 66, but at least a bounce off of this level here at 47. >> pete talked about how u.s. steel traded in and how the 200

day moving average today. we also talked about freeport mcnamara being broken. we mentioned they're probably playing stock market again. for the near term, i think a name like fcx is better to be sold into rallies than it is to buy dips. i think that will play itself out over the next couple of weeks. i'll tease dennis garmin, i know he's coming on. when the stock is broken technically and the fundamental story is altered, you have to wonder. >> this was not a bottom picking on my part. i've been watching this name. i've been looking for names absolutely beaten. freeport mac, i have yet to see someone come in and go after the calls in any aggressive way. this is the closest thing i've seen u.s. steel. not over the top, but at least people were buying exceeding previous interest. that's what perked my interest today. looks like it's positioned higher. >> i've been trading freeport a while. i thought it hang in there relatively well. i did sell most of my position

we bought on friday on the close. you have a position in the freeport mcmoran. if you want to play the long side, into the 60s. pete, you talked about steel dynamics, a name that i love under $16. are you still a buyer of that stock? i look at it and think tremendous opportunity. >> i think it's great opportunity. i was not a buyer of the stock. i was piggy-backing with the coal buying going on there. i was anticipating calls. >> how far out are the calls? >> they're right in front of us, at the february 17th strike. >> the nasdaq turpd positive late in the session. we have a fast message about the tech trade. gary, given the positive after hours action in cisco, how does this adjust your negative view on the qqqq? >> i wrote that question. >> i'm not negative on the qs. i did cover that short last week. and i'm sort of neutral in the sense that i wanted to be short the nasdaq as an index, as we discussed it, because of what i saw the closet indexes doing. i am not going to be going long

any technology names right now. however, i don't think you're going to make money shorting them. that was january's trade. that trade is over. >> why wouldn't you think there's an upward bias, natural upward bias if you think all of these portfolio managers are going to sit around in a room tomorrow and think we've got to pile into tech because cisco had good earnings? isn't that natural in the sector? >> i'm still concerned about a lot of things that are happening in the broader economy in terms of money going into equities as an asset class. if i'm not bullish about stocks right now, i can't force myself to just go out and buy the market. i just don't think equities -- i think we're in this trading range. you're going to have to pick -- as joe said, you have to trade around things. i don't want to go get long in the qs. but i don't think you're going to make money on the short side right now. >> real quick. just talking about trading tomorrow. a name like google should perform well, a name like qualcomm should perform well, and dell coming up in the next few days. that name will perform well also. >> everything except dell.

i continue to think dell is dead man walking. >> let's touch quickly on the stock that reported earnings after the bell. this is a story of a stock that has doubled here in the past year. it's a favorite here on the desk. >> they raised guidance. this quarter they beat the guidance. everything they said is fine. revenues are better. u.p.s. is better. it's had a tremendous run. it reminds me of the same situation that western digital had when they reported. smoked the quarter. the market didn't react. this is not a fast money trade. if you want an investment, this is one to own. >> if you're setting up for anything, they're giving you an advantage to talk about something to enter into earnings frequently. accelerated level of volatility in the front month. next month out march. you can look at it that way. if this stock pulls back too far, that would be a great opportunity. that would be a name i would add to. >> let's bring in bull market or

bs? let's bring in dennis gartman of the gartman letter? dennis, let's get to it. we're looking at a leg lower. what makes you think that? what stocks are you looking at specifically? >> i think a lot of damage has been done particularly to the medical metal stalks. freeport mcmoran has been broken. the largest stocks that go into the making of automobiles and refrigerators have all been broken. that tells us what's going on with the u.s. dollar. the dollar is getting strong. putting downward pressure upon commodities. i find myself selling those stocks that are dependent upon higher commodity prices. we're not going to get them on buying stocks that are dependent upon lower commodity prices. that would be like restaurants. that would be ethanol. i can't believe i'm even talking about ethanol bullishly. but i'm buying things that are doing well as commodity prices decline. selling things that are going to do poorly as commodities fall. >> i want to get to the charts

of goldman and general electric, the parent company of this network. goldman has had price action recently. what do you see in these charts? wouldn't this lead you to believe, or make one believe that perhaps the market could turn higher? >> it can. goldman has done very well. quite honestly, i was actually short a little bit of it. didn't feel very good. got out of it yesterday, said, i'm gone. i'm done. i don't need to be there. it is below its 200-day moving average. each low is lower. i bet i come back in and sell goldman. on the other hand, general electric, much different looking chart, much stronger over the course of the past several months, as you can see each low has been higher. much better dividend. i see two different companies, two different methodologies of trading there. i tend to be a buyer of ge. i tend to be a seller of goldman sac sachs. >> dennis, i tend to agree. it's joe, by the way. >> hey, joe. >> i fully agree with you on the trajectory of the dollar continuing to move higher. in the commodities space, i differ with you on the opinion of oil. i don't know where you were around 2:30 today, you by know

what i was doing. i was scrambling to try to find out. if the producers have a chart of what happened to oil at 2:30. $76.52 at 2:30. at 2:32, trading at $77.65 on the news out of yemen. you get the news out of yemen, geo political concerns, and the demands out of china where oil is tightening. is oil the one commodity that defies the dollar moving higher? >> it may be but i doubt it. jerry will get a kick out of this. we're buying suncorp and selling crude oil against it right now. i could be wrong. to me it's a punt. they beat the tarnation -- i almost said something terrible there. they beat the tarnation out of suncorp yesterday on earnings and problems. but suncorp and crude oil tend to follow one another very closely. suncorp got beaten, i bought it. i'm selling crude. and i feel fairly comfortable being a seller of crude. the kantango is still fairly high.

when it's high, i tend to err on the side of being a seller. >> dennis, it's gary. real quick, do you know those that bought suncorp over the last ten years, when you buy it over a production number like you had yesterday, you've been rewarded, correct? >> absolutely. if you're going to own an oil company, i think that's the one probably to own. most americans still don't realize canada is our largest supplier of crude oil except for ourself. they supply so much more than does saudi arabia, than does nigeria and venezuela. and suncor is the precip tant of that. i'm just punting on suncor right now after what they did to it yesterday. >> dennis, your newsletter, the gartman letter, is required reading on wall street. you've been sending it out since the beginning of time. you stuffed them into bottles and tossed them in the ocean. give us a preview of what's in tomorrow's letter. >> i'm going to spend time talking about what's going on in europe, the problems with greece and the euro. i think the euro has a long way to go down. that's the place i'm going to be a seller. i'm going to spend time talking about that.

that's a problem that's going to get worse and worse. they may resolve greece. they're not going to resolve portugal, spain, italy. one after the other is coming against them. >> you would be short against the u.s. dollar? >> i would be short against the canadian dollar and short against the australian dollar. let's buy non-u.s. dollars. let's sell the euro. let's sell europe. >> all right, dennis. thanks for that exclusive look at your letter tomorrow. dennis gartman, of course, from the gartman letter and a "fast money" friend. thanks, dennis. >> did you see pete rolling his eyes when he was talking about canada? >> pete was not rolling his eyes. >> all sorts of e-mails will be flooding the inbox now. coming up next, the "fast money" exclusive with wall street's possible future top cop. of course, we are talking about eric dinallo. will his crackdown hurt your trades? here's what else is coming up on the show. >> barron's called them the best stock pickers in the world in 2009, better even than these guys. now they'll reveal their top pick for next year only on fast.

plus with cisco moving money after hours, we'll check the realtime charts to give you the edge on tomorrowance next big move on america's most market show tonight. hey, mayor white. how you doing? great. come on in. would you like to see our new police department? yeah, all right. this way. and here it is. completely networked. so, anything happening, suz? she's all good. oh, my gosh. is that my car? [ whirring ] [ female announcer ] the new community. see it. live it. share it. on the human network. cisco. 'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o'o

it is clear that capitol hill is firmly focused on fixing wall street. what sort of regulation will lead to real change on the street and when? joining us now is eric dinallo, former superintendent of new york's insurance program and writer of today's "the wall street journal" piece, "what i learned at the aig meltdown." eric, always a pleasure to have you on set. first, i want to ask you to the reaction of the news crossing just the past half hour ago that connecticut ag richard blumenthal is calling for a special master to find a way to ban the $100 million in bonuses paid to aig specifically in the financial products unit, which is the division that specifically led to the firm's collapse. would you agree with that move, either on a legal basis, moral basis? >> i think he's going to have a very tough time on a legal basis. feinberg has done a good job of, first, understanding the problem and trying to negotiate them down as far as he can. it's really not a great opportunity to sort of tear up

those contracts because then people are going to question the validity of a contract. i don't think those individuals would have such a hard time and going into state court and getting the contracts respected under state law. there does need to be a distinction made between the employees that were hired to unwind the book and those that put the book in place. i think he's going to help a bit, but the courts will uphold the contract. >> first of all, why not say to aig, we, as taxpayers, essentially own the company. those contracts are on hold. those bonuses are on hold. we're not tearing the contracts up. we're simply holding back the money until you pay us back. >> they can vote on that. those employees, they'll do two things. they'll go somewhere else, which maybe they should, and they'll sue on the contracts. i entered into a contract before the crisis. some of them entered after the crisis to unwind the book. they'll say, i had a contract. i'm going to go somewhere else. they're really not bonuses. that's the problem.

they're contracts designed to keep the people there to unwind the book because they shut the business down a couple of years ago. what the american taxpayer has to understand is they want to book unwound in a reasonable way. these are huge bets that were made by a casino, shouldn't have been done. now, if you just walk away from that book, the american taxpayer will lose tens of billions of dollars. >> want to look forward then. under the volcker plan, seems like nothing proposed so far would have prevented the activities of an aig from doing what they do. >> i agree with you. i think that volcker has made a really good first step in getting a debate about proprietary trading, but the foremost in my mind is the commodities act that was the law in 2000 that basically made derivatives completely unregulated that said we can now do pseudo insurance, psedo securities, gambling, pseudo options, without capital behind those commitments. that's how you ended up with an

aig financial products division. it's a tale of two cities. one side was an insurance company with capital and reserve behind those commitments. those are going to be paid off. policyholders are protected. and the other side was basically a casino without the proper capital behind its bets, and that's because congress made a mistake, which i think they should revisit, in passing the cfma. >> eric, let me ask you a question. who should have seen aig coming? aig financial products started somewhere, i believe, in the mid-90s. these guys were printing money for years, doing basically the same thing they did when this whole thing peaked out. >> yes. >> somebody should have been placed to see what was going on there. my question is has the system been broken all along? is >> well, the truth is that aig's holding company, the parent got to pick its regulator, and that regulator was the regulator over the holding company and over the casino. and the casino's regulator was the office of thrift supervision. so under a quirk of our law, which needs to be fix, these companies get to pick their

regulator, which has to come to an end tomorrow, and the regulator they picked was a regulator that had really only basically done savings and loans, and they admitted before congress they hadn't done a very good job. they didn't understand the book. they didn't understand the risks. and i think that was the root cause of who should have, quote, seen it coming. >> eric, as you know, securitization was a major -- i called it financial heroin back then because it was a major source of what we ended up with in september of 2008. not all securitization is bad. securitization is important to create the flow of capital to grow the economy. do you think any of these politicians who go and talk about it, and they talk about it in the same way as proprietary trading, even understand what's happening? >> i've testified before congress ten times. at one of my testimonies, they didn't understand what's in the cfma and in undoing glass ste siegel, which are the twin

errors that were made. derivatives create shadow wall street. you take what you used to do with "x" amount of capital held back, which is what regulators require. and then you do it without any capital, and you end up with huge, huge shortfalls and aig financial products. >> eric, last question. let's say the volcker plan goes through close to what we have now, which is, of course, sort of a shadow of regulation. but let's say they don't attack securitization, they don't attack some of the activities of an aig for instance. you're a candidate, of course, for attorney general. what kind of attorney general would you be? would you find a way in your powers to stop gap those loopholes that congress made going forward? >> i think what ends up happening is you have law enforcement officials. i think there ought to be an fcpa to protect our consumers of financial products. and those people, including the attorney general's office, will have to make sure people are not selling a product without proper capital. >> so you're willing to step in -- >> absolutely.

you have to. if congress doesn't pass the right laws to protect consumers of financial products, then that's where law enforcement and others have to step in and make sure it happens. >> even if wall street breathes a sigh of relief because congress may be overlooking the real problem that got us into trouble, you'd be willing to still go after them? >> yes, that would be my job. >> eric dinallo, thank you for your time. >> let's give you a financial trade. goe goldman sachs, morgan stanley, we try to navigate and give you names nobody talks about. raymond james made a 52-week high. the analysts are getting into it. fbr upgraded the stock and put a $32 price tag. these are the names you want to be in. it's not an indictment of goldman sachs, i believe i own the stock, but rjf gets it done. >> the reason i asked mr. dinallo those questions is to underscore, even if the regulations go through and everyone is breathing a sigh of relief, we don't know the next

leg in terms of regulation may be. does that make you worried about the financials, gary? >> again, i don't think the guys in washington that are going to come up with regulation really understand how the capital markets work. so i'm concerned about that. people i talked to at the major firms are concerned about that. that's their concern. there will be some regulation. it will be to appease populism. they don't really understand what happens with capital flows. >> the waters are still murky. that's the problem. >> coming up, as you know, as you saw last night, bill ackman came on the show. blesses borders, the stock surged. and we're all over the cisco systems conference call. we're all over the news in the after hours.

's on the minds of independent investors? let's ask. when you're trading a stock, every penny counts. i hate when the trade is done and you find out you paid more than the quote price. i want it at the price i expect... or better. td ameritrade's unique trading platform uses multiple market centers to help you find

the best possible price. i like those odds. i know they can't flat out promise a better price, but they're always looking for it. they know what matters to me. every online stock trade is always $9.99. not a penny more. and no maintenance fees. who else does that? are you ready to declare your independence? td ameritrade. independence is the spirit that drives america's most successful investors. announcer: trade commission free for 30 days, plus get 100 dollars cash, when you open an account.

welcome back to "fast money" for realtime chart action. flash gordon, senior strategist at forex.com. flash, or todd, i should call you. everybody is giddy about cisco, you're not so bullish. >> it's an impressive report. we've got to look at levels.

set the emotions aside, 50-day moving average at $23.80. we're just below it. 61 61.8% retracement of the january level down. we need to get a good move into 24 into tomorrow's open to keep it going. i agree short term technology is higher, but cisco level below 24 is going to be key. >> you're also looking at akamai. not too much action. slight move downward. what do you make of the chart? >> i'm getting a headache watching it. this is unbelievable after hours. that is in full effect with akamai. let's take a look at the charts. we took a quick spike up to 28. we went right to the 2010 high, failed, and now we're heading back to this gap right here. this is key. we are start to go close this gap, which makes room for a push below this low. so if we can close this gap in tomorrow's session, again,

akamai might have lower prices ahead. >> gary, got some ancillary praise. >> we talk about akamai, and these guys made a good point in terms of long term investment and talk about cisco, to me the best way to play what's going on is american tower. my former team in newberg, it's still their number one large position. they own over 8 million shares. i think 8 million shares is a commitment. i think american tower is the best way to play out all the infrastructure built. >> todd, thanks for making history on tv. you know why we're making history. this is the first time that live technical analysis has been done in the after-hours session. >> i've got this cool tech annotator i'm getting used to. this is a fun toy. >> todd, why don't you go tweet it for us. >> flash. >> a little bit later. >> that's because you decided that's what he's going to go by. therefore, that's what he goes by. >> ski, flash, i could name them all. >> i know. let's talk about toyota.

the troubles deemening today. the falls 5%, this after the fall last week. this after transportation secretary ray la hood stepped in it first. he basically said, no, don't drive them. wait, wait, wait, just bring them to your dealer. >> how do you get them there if you don't drive them there? >> you push. >> the question becomes to toyota, what's more dangerous, driving the actual vehicle or trading the stock right now? i think right now to trade toyota, you have to incur way too much risk. i mean, your focus is going to be all about, yes, i can make a lot of money, but the other side of that is how much could you actually lose? there are ancillary plays off the toyota trade clearly. >> what do you make of this goldman call? three to six months, he expects sluggish stock movement and low market share. cutting it to neutral seems a little bit behind. >> upgraded netflix a couple

weeks ago. david faber pointed it out. i think it's a lousy call by them. joe makes a good point. two words on the autotrader, alan malawi, the guy's a stud. he said wait for a pullback. twice it's traded back down. that's the game you want to be in. >> people are selling the toyota, they want to get out because they can't stand the way it acts. this will help ford. they'll want to take the money out and keep it in the auto sector. it will help ford in the near term. >> what i noticed on the charts of ford is the short interest. since september or so, short interest has doubled. as a percentage of the shares outstanding, not too much, about 5%. still look at the move on the short interest. >> great point today on the halftime show. excellent point. the disbelief around the ford story itself continues. i think those shorts will get squeezed, and a name that i've been wrong on, johnson controls, is another play on ford as well. that continues to keep moving

higher. that's a name you look at. >> you get paid db just real quick, you get paid to own toyota right now. if you look at the charts and look at this thing and look at the volatility, it's been 25, now 45 in february. you're getting paid to get the guts to move into this son of a gun. >> let's move on here. barron's called this firm the best stock picker in the world. now that firm is revealing its top pick exclusively for us on "fast." stay tuned.

welcome back. we are all over the after hours action. kiss comoving up significantly in the after hours based on what john just said in the conference call. take a listen. >> the second quarter was very strong, well exceeding even our own optimistic expectations. the financial results were, in my opinion, outstanding. revenues of $9.8 billion, increasing 8% year over year were dramatically above the high end of our expectations. >> gary, you've been listening to cisco's conference calls since before cisco even existed. what do you make of those comments? >> i don't really want to go after jim goldman here, but i've

heard john chambers a lot more bullish than that. yes, he said they set the ball for the quarter and they obviously came above it, but this is not like what we saw in the past. so, jim, i'm sorry about that. i've heard john a lot more optimistic. >> we should note that's just a snippet of what he said on the conference call. he said all sorts of things also about hiring. they're putting their money where their forecasts are in terms of their, so to speak, in terms of what they see for sales in the fiscal third quarter. the stock did move another 2% since the last time we checked that chart. meantime, it's the moment you've all been waiting for. the best stock picker in the entire world, perhaps in the universe. >> i thought karen was off the desk. >> research firm mcadams, wright, reagan topped barron's 2009 list of the best stock pickers on the street, beating out firms like new constructs, morgan keegan, and, yes, even

goldman sachs. blasphemy. paul adam, director of research, joins us. congratulations on being crowned the top stock picker. >> thank you. >> want to talk about your short term picks. amazon, you say, is a buy here? what makes you say it's a buy? is it because of the pullback? >> speaking with our amazon analyst today. it does look like the stock has pulled back on kindle fears, and it seems like the death of the kindle is greatly exaggerated. seems to me you hold on to that stock for a quarter. but the time you get to next quarter's earnings, people will have forgotten about the mcmillan situation. maybe the ipad will still be boiling around in the background, but the bulk of their business seems to be stealing share from brick and mortar. looks like a temporary pullback. >> so even if you have other book publishers come out and say we want mcmillan's deal, that's not going to be a concern to you? that's not risk?

>> you know, the company in its history has historically said it's never lost money on a product it's selling. i do think there's a scale in the kindle business. so go out and build a network, if you will, of kindles to me is a viable strategy for the company. yes, there could be short term noise around it, but i think in the long run it's just that, noise. >> longer term, you also, paul, like a pick that is gary's pick here on the desk, verizon. >> yes, that one is on our focus list. i know it's a bit of a contrarian pick. the wire line business has been under hell for the last four quarters, maybe longer. there is a structural as well as a cyclical component to that. >> listen, i'm on the other side of verizon. i've been negative on verizon. i continue to be negative. you guys have a niche. you know the seattle companies and the companies in the northwest. where does verizon fit into the strategy that got you on barron's to begin with? this is not a northwest company.

>> we actually have two products. we have sort of our northwest coverage, where we dig down into the details of names like perhaps amazon and nordstrom. and a focus list which is not geographically constrained, just looking for good ideas anywhere. >> paul, thank you for joining us. paul lotta of the firm that may be the best stock picker in the whole world, according to barron's. coming up next, gary warned you to get short tech next month. he was right on that one. his next short idea after the break. they come in blue or red, golden, green. algae could be converted into biofuels... that we could someday run our cars on. in using algae to form biofuels, we're not competing with the food supply. and they absorb co2, so they help solve the greenhouse problem, as well. we're making a big commitment to finding out... just how much algae can help to meet... the fuel demands of the world.

this is not more benefits at greater cost to your company insurance. this is not how does it fit in my company's budget insurance. this is help protect and care for your employees at no cost to your company insurance. with aflac, your employees pay only for the coverage they want or need. and, the cost to you - nothing at all. if all you know about us is... aflac! ...then you don't know quack. to find out why more businesses provide aflac, visit getquack.com

welcome back to "fast." we just talked to the firl thatted can the best stock picker. >> what is the best pick? best pick of the year. >> the pick they put on their list, you'll only hear it on "fast." >> get to the point. >> campbell's soup. soup is good food. >> 3% dividend pb not a bad valuation. >> what about heinz? i think cam pel soup. >> soup is good food. >> did you peel the labels off? >> never did.

never peeled anything off. >> leave it at that. let's head back to the prop desk. flash, you're watching goldman sachs. >> goldman sachs, pete and i have been talking about the last 24 hours. it was a highly visual technical level. the visual analysis, when a level is very visible, you've got to be wary. we traded 160 and came right back down to 157. in the spirit of risk on with these positive tech earnings, i'm curious. pete, can financials hang below 160 ala goldman sachs with technology moving higher? >> i've got to tell you, the financials are basically between 14 and 14 1/2, it seems like for this entire run. i think actually you could see the market go higher without the financials. to your point with goldman sachs, i have yet to see a commitment by the options markets of folks to come in and speculate to the upside. 150, 160, a bit of no man's land. we break that area you're talking about, 160, 161, maybe we're off to the races. >> i agree. stocks will definitely go off up

there. >> flash, always a pleasure. thanks for manning that desk. don't be too lonely. we want to go from the best stock pick to best short pick. you don't need stocks to go up to make money. they go both ways. gary, you're looking at what? >> little lemon. you remember victor kayam, i love the company so much, remington razors, so i bought it? i like the product. i like the shirts. the stock is priced to perfection. lululemmon. this company is getting the benefit because they're involved with the olympics. they're up in vancouver. the growth being expected now that they're going to be able to translate down from canada, where they're doing the biggest sales per square footage into the united states, it's just not happening. i bought some puts in the name. the reason i bought puts is it has short interest. you limit your down side in terms of a loss. and you go back to overcrowded trades.

this is a name that the mo guys love. when they come in with downward dog guidance, they're going to get out at any price. i bought the puts. i want to be short the name. i think it's hyped up with the olympics, and i don't think they'll be able to grow sales. they can't get any more customers to buy the $70 shirts. >> did he just say downward dog guidance? that was great. >> it should be downward facing dog like when you bend. it's a yoga move. >> you could do the up dog, the pigeon. there's a lot of other things you could do. >> i did not even know that myself, gary. >> there's a whole bunch of those. i do the yoga. i know this stuff. oh, yeah. >> next on the final trade, joe reveals his first interview trade tomorrow morning. we'll also check in on the cisco after hours action, see if the stock is, in fact, holding up going into tomorrow's open. rrrrr

rate now we're checking on cisco systems. very bullish outlook from ceo john chambers saying the capital spending recovery is very strong. and also he sees fiscal year current quarter sales up 23% to 26%. we are seeing the stock still hanging strong in the after

hours session. take a look at the quad qs to see what the effect is, if any, on that. and what the potential is for tomorrow. we're seeing that higher. we'll see if this translates to a higher open for technology in tomorrow's session. a quick programming note. do not miss the series premiere of "american greed," the story of the hedge fund manager who faked his suicide after burning investors of upwards of $300 million. don't miss that only on cnbc. a tale of a greedy hedge fund manager. always a grood one. time for the final trade. >> that dollar spike in oil reminded me what an evil one it is. voyage. >> jimmy cramer has the ceo of wall shame. the stud wall for ceos, jim skinner from mcdonald's is on top of that. cafe mac, baby. >> mccafe. >> jerry. >> i like walgreens.

the same store sales numbers for january came in bad today. the stock was down. this is a long-term name you want to own. this is a buying opportunity. they will grow that business. this is a stock you want to own for the long term. >> i'm coming along with guy as far as the mcdonald's. what has actually been trailing mcdonald's is yum. it's been flat while mcdonald's up 15%. i think they can catch up. you look at the china sales numbers, very, very impressive. when they pull back tomorrow, and they're gonna, it's an opportunity. >> tune in tomorrow for more "fast money" on cnbc. >> tomorrow does everyone really like sara lee. the ceo checks in with the story behind the numbers. plus it takes a tough trader to handle a wild number. go inside with the chairwoman. "fast money" 5:00 eastern on cnbc. first in business worldwide. next the sell block. hard times for hard drives. "mad money" next on cnbc.

♪ ♪ when it comes to protecting the things you care about... ...leave nothing to chance. travelers. insurance for auto, home, and business.

i'm jim cramer. welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> he's going out of business, and he's nuts. they're nuts. they know nothing. >> i always have to say it's a bull market somewhere. >> "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. i'm trying to make you some money. my job is to entertain and

educate. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. when the facts change, i change my mind. boy, oh, boy, have some of the facts changed. and changed for the better, virtually overnight. although you wouldn't know it from listening to the commentators or watching the averages, which couldn't get any serious lift today. dow down 26. that's over .5%. oil, china, dollar, gold. usual suspects. hey, no dope, sherlock. you know i've been a whole lot less positive about this year than i was for the last nine months of 2009. in it part because prices have moved up so much, in part because washington's become a big negative, and in part, yes indeed, because the chinese have slammed on the brakes toyota style. and who knows who's going to go through the windshield in the pr save? but all of a sudden, totally out