it really is technically related. we're looking at $69.50 on the down side here and we'll see if we hold that level, if not, some traders are telling me we could drop below $65 a barrel. again, we are looking at what is happening to the euro. we are looking at what's happening to the dollar and the s&p 500, but this seems to be the situation of technical trading leading oil lower. in terms of gold prices, we're lower on the day there. folks in the gold market telling me they are also looking at the s&ps and tracking closely what is happening there and also falling crude. finally a look at natural gas bucking the trend system there with the blizzard that's expected across much of the east coast and that's helping natural gas prices hold their own. >> thanks, sharon. the important thing here is europe closed, and pupst put up the s&p 500 chart. euro closes at 1130 and all of a sudden, boom, the market drifts lower and not dramatically. the dollar spikes up around 1130

and while you saw the effect that that had on commodities and we saw pressure gold and we saw pressure oil and of course, we're seeing some pressure some of the stock end of things here as well as on the otf market and for the second day in a row, we're seeing the spike up on the volume this is rational with the etf representing gold and this is not gold stocks here. volume spiked up noticeably around 1130. same with energy stocks and here is the xle. the s&pa 00 is actively traded. here today, volume again spiked up as we saw the commodities moving to the down side. finally, i think it's pfrpt. the stock of the day was conway in the trucking sector. you want to watch truckers because they shift the stuff across the country. conway's numbers beat on the top line. there are too many trucks on the road and their pricing was terrible and as a result their markets got hit badly and it's a good sign volume is picking up here. let's go back to you sue in the

studio. >> we'll check in with scott wapner as well pause the nasdaq has been hit hard. is it a slightly better day today, scott? >> the interesting thick is tech is one of the best performing sectors and the nasdaq for all intents and purposes is flat as we've seen pullback in some of the regional banks and the biotech stocks. i'll take you to the board and you'll look at the widely held and technology stocks on the screen here and i'll take you through here and you will see gains today from the likes of yahoo!, and apple. look at cisco today, it's ahead by another 1.5% and it was another technology stock yesterday that was positive in the wake of those better than expected earnings and certainly some of the optimistic commentary we got from it ceo john chambers. google is ahead by two-thirds of 1%. research in motion a half percent. the nasdaq itself is down.5% since we hit those mid-january 15-month highs or so and you've seen a real decline in the technology stocks and even in the wake of a better than

expected earning. so a bit of a recovery today. microsoft, a fractional loser and look at amazon is a winner and amazon is up 0.4%. rick, we from both bob and sharon what the dollar is doing today and what the impact has been. >> i'm not going to do that. i totally agree with what you're saying and bob was right. a half hour ago when you get into the european close, something always seems to happen with foreign exchange and is it really the dollar? let's look at three charts and you tell me the common denominator. the euro versus the dollar and look what it's done in the last half hour. straight down and now let's look at the euro versus the pound. it's clipping significant lows and it's the same scenario, no matter how you slice it, you're seeing a similar impact in many

markets and the common denominator against many currencies. >> i have a question for you first, rick, do we know why we have seen that very deliberate action in the last 20 minutes? was there anything that caused it and europe closed? >> i think europe closing is a significant event. >> does it every day. you can remember the four weekends of '08 in this country. i think to some lesser extent you're having the weekend, negative parties themselves these days. >> oh, i see. you're talking about named weekends in europe is concerning. >> reminiscent of those '08 sunday nights. >> rick, thank you very much. the stock indexes are moving lower. the dow off about 53 points earlier, now down 47. the nasdaq essentially flat. the s&p, well, down about a half percent. so is this merely a correction or is the big, bad bareback? let's gather our "power lunch" market insiders and peter, and

allen lance president of allen b. lance and associates. >> bill, you say you see the s&p potentially moving as low as 980. what do you think the market needs to see or hear to get its legs back under it? >> the president goes on vacation for a month, they close capitol hill for a month? they'll leave people alone and they'll stop throwing rocks. that would be a good start. >> the snowstorm's only a weekend long. sorry. >> so, bill, you do not think this thing was caused by the whole sovereign debt thing? you feel it's white house related. >> number one you don't move markets 65 to 75% up without looking for a correction, for goodness sake. we were due. label whatever excuse you like. i prefer to use the political hot air as catalyst for this decline. this decline should be in the 10% to 12% range. it could make it worse, by

leading these preposturous. >> are the stumbles that contribute to politics or is it something else? something more deep? not that that's not deep. >> sorry. >> we haven't really recovered fully from the financial crisis and i think what you're seeing is just the market anticipating a v-shaped recovery and many investors enthused going into 2010 and we thought 2010 would be a difficult year and particularly exposed would be the areas that did so well last year like commodities, as far as emerging markets and technology. so i would be defensive and cautious. one of the areas that you do like that's overlooked and we're trying to find overlooked areas for people to put new cash into something that's on the radar. you're looking at grocery space. with all of this talk about deflation. the are it is historic lows and

they have good dividends, good balance sheets and it's a good hedge in case we do have inflation down the road. now it's time to protect yourself from inflation is when everybody's talking deflation. >> exactly. it's defensive. >> any ideas as we leave here? >> i think it's a little early to buy, but there will be compelling values on the long equity side and i think consumer staples and king dollar. it's want the end of the world and this market will findst legs and it will be very soon, 2%, 3% more, and i love the currency space. there are a lot of opportunities depending on what strategy you like. >> thank you boeing. appreciate it very much. have a good weekend and bundle up depending where you are. >> wall street has a new $16 million man, j.p. morgan's jamie dimon getting that number in stock and options for 2009. will his downtown rival, lloyd blankfein of goldman sachs get

more or less? our mary thompson is here to take us inside the numbers. >> what's your bet, more or less for blankfein? >> think blankfein should get more, but because of the crept environment he'll get less. he'll come in 100,000 less. >> dimon is receiving a 2009 bonus worth $16. 1 million, one that doesn't include any cash and j.p. morgan is also giving something to its shareholders and an advisory vote at this year's annual meeting. according to an sec fighting, it has 175,000 shares of restricted stock and 563,000 worth $8 million. the only firm that remained profitable throughout the financial crisis, dimon didn't take a bonus for 2008 p. that year it took $18 million in t.a.r.p. money and it did repay those funds plus interest the next may. dimon's bonus isn't a mind blower and he says he thinks

wall street's moving in the right direction when it comes to pay and the multimillion dollar bonuses raising hackles in washington and main street. a lot of these firms wouldn't be around if it weren't for the taxpayer funded bailout in 2008. wall street has tried to respond by toning down some of the payouts and ceos past and present foregoing cash bonuses for 2009 and the chiefs of bank of motorcycle ask morgan stanley along with vikram pandit foregoing bonuses altogether for last year. what will lloyd blankfein, wall street's most profitable firm get? will he top his $16 million payout from 2007. >> if it did not turn out to be a better year. >>. >> is that new? they've had clawbacks for a couple of years. i know morgan stanley recently

put them in on stricter claw backs as well. >> jamie dimon told us once in an interview with david faber that they've exercised those clawbacks in certain cases. >> yeah. >> and not with him. in that restricted stock, actually true. it's supposed to be the investing period and the board can extend the investing period if they're not happy with the firm's performance and dimon's performance, i've been told. >> thank you, mary. >> all right. thanks. up next, the earnings season scorecard as we wind down wall street's hit parade. >> plus, a very interesting divergence in the unemployment number. the rate is falling, but the number of people losing the jobs are still climbing. what does it mean? we'llie we will talk about that after a quick break. and president obama speaking out on the economy in the wake of those jobs numbers from this morning. we will hear from him just minutes from now. we'll carry that for you live. we have matt nesto, what is the hot mid-cap move or your radar? >> i'm going to put my 2 cents

in, dennes. i have a retailer that has the shorts run-in. they sell low-end products in places like california, and las veg vegas, nevada, arizona. i'll give you a name if you haven't figured that out. power lunch is back in two. not long ago, this man had limited mobility.

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>> click your heels three times together, little girl, because we're going to earnings central, an image near place. i am the wizard of odd. let's take a look at where we stand. >> the scorecard some. >> we're two-thirds really basically on. >> yes. >> t 71% have beaten on revenues. >> that's a general improve upon, right? because we've been in the mid-60s for a long time. >> if you like your earnings blended, you have a 206% growth and if you like them plain, no blendation, 13%. the real revenue growth, ladies and gentlemen, there's the earnings surprise factor and the real revenue growth is 6% of those so far. >> that's not so good because we were hoping for a 7% or 8% with the expectations going in and financials are part of the problem. financials are part of the problem with that and that tells you an awful lot of profit growth is cost-cutting related.

>> the s&p 500 since january 11th, what's it down in the wake of this? ? down 8% as you see this. this has been a historic pattern where people sell. let's change shoes. you take mine and i'll take yours. so i would give this probably a b plus overall as earnings season. with 75% beating estimates. >> we're doing great. >> back to you. thank you both very much, a rather confusing report which on balance has the markets trading lower. let's sort it out with steve liesman because we did get conflicting data in there. >> sue, it's two different employment reports and the household survey and the payroll survey any they give opposing pictures of the job situation in the nation and it's want always these surveys have different takes on it and this time they do. we'll go through them one by one. first, let's look at the reality of the job market from the household survey and that shows

the inemployment rate falling with employment in the survey up by more than half a million. unemployment down by almost half a million. this is a survey where they called 50,000 households and said, hey, are you working? one thought is this captures more small businesses and may be better at the turning points of going into and coming out of recessions and totally different survey. it measures survey as reported by 300,000 businesses and they say we lost 20,000 jobs and they revised, by the way, the total job losses through december at 1.4 million, bringing total losses in this recession to 8.4 million. two bright spots, and the hours worked up 0.2%. so employers are working and they're working employees harder and paying them more. >> very quickly, let's look at the household and you can see right here, the household survey spiking and the blue line, which is less volatile. economists tend to like it more. are we losing jobs or gaining jobs? yes. employment is up in

manufacturing services and temp help, but we're still losing jobs in good producing and private sector jobs and commercial real estate, the finishing jobs to read this report. a lot of commercial real estate jobs were started and haven't been finished. >> let's switch gears a little bit to talk about the impasse that apparently exists now between senator dodd and senator shelby as it pertains to financial regulation. will they toss it all out andst? ? no, they're want. they're specifically not going to do that upon. they'll take the stuff that the republicans and democrats have agreed on and keep going with that and then the democrats by themeses are going to pass legislation on the parts where the democrats can't agree. >> where is the point? >> consumer protection agency. >> senator dodd has come out and said shelby and i aren't working together anymore. the dechl democrats are going solo here, right? ? on the parts that are not done that, exactly, michelle. it is really the question of will there be a financial

consumer protection agency which republicans oppose because -- because they think it's overreaching on the part of government and democrats, and would create a bureaucracy. >> and they think there's a safe place. ? right now it's inside the federal reserve although the democrats would argue, hey, inside the fed the consumer protection did not do so well. that's the other side of the coin. thank you, steve, very much. >> nice job. and up next, the toyota ceo apologizes. a prius recall may be in the works. has the company gone far enough to repair the damage to its brand. we have a crisis task force on this after the break. >> plus the president is set too speak on jobs and the economy just a few minutes from now. we will take you there live when it happens. "power lunch" is back with the dow down 37 points. >> on a day n

37 points, we have most of the financials in the red today. citigroup, bank of america and j.p. morgan chase all losing steam as is ford and the patient company of our network, general electr

electric. their. >> that is a major crisis. akio toyoda who apologized for the vehicles. phil lebeau with more depails with that apology. >> this is what people have been waiting the last two weeks, to finally hear from akio toyoda as he talks about the recalls impactinging his company. held a press conference in japan and at that press conference he ashes apologized for the worldwide recall and remember toyota's recalled altogether more than 7 million vehicles worldwide. he also says he is sorry about causing worries for their customers. >> good evening. toyota's car is safety, but we try to increase our product better so our -- this kind of procedure is good for the customers. so please believe me, we always customer first is first priority.

>> as part of his apology akio toyoda said the company will fully cooperate with the u.s. investigations into the two recalls as well as the prius issue. he's also asking outsiders to check on the quality of toyota vehicles. he's going to be in charge of a quality control committee. shares of toyota are no longer under pressure. they've been hammered over the last week and a half. today they're up a little bit, but that's clearly not a bounceback. for more on the importance of akio toyoda's apology and whether or not it goes far enough check out the blog, behind the wheel.cnbc.com. >> phil, we'll check out the blog and we'll discuss it right now as well. stay right there, toyota president akio toyoda apologized and let's go to our crisis managing expert. >> we had you out on monday and you said thus far at that point you gave toyota basically an a for crisis management. do you still stand by that grade? >> i'm not really a great big fan of grades, but here ate -- >> give us your assessment. >> my assessment is this, i

think given the size of this they have moved relatively quickly. a lot of these silly little side debates, did they apologize correctly, did they apologize soon enough? the issue is not whether does the apology work, is it something and is that the right thing to do and the answer is yes, one of the other things i said monday is you need to look at the three components of the crisis, mechanical, can you fix it, operational. can you get it in the cars and the shops and then there's the pr element. i think that recalling millions and millions of cars this quickly and arc peering to have a mechanical solution is pretty impressive. >> okay. i got gotcha. the problem here is confidence and it's not merely the company and the quick business of the fix. we don't really know whether toyota knows they've got the problem nailed or not. it is a confidence issue here.

this is toyota's tiger woods moment. this is where a pristine brand, known for integrity and known for reliability has just had a golf club put on its head and the women keep showing up. every week there seems to be another one. >> it's confidence and that will be a tough, tough thing to do. >> absolutely. the problem is -- >> go ahead. >> go ahead, eric. >> it's going to take a long time, the problem is given 24-hour news segments and news cycles, everybody expects a solution within a narrow timeframe and, you know, having spent almost 30 years inside these crises, the reality is number one, you don't always know right away what's causing the problem and then what happens is you have investors in the crisis and by that -- >> you've got to get out faster and earlier, eric, i think toyota -- phil, one last thing to you. i ng the answer is not whether the apology is enough and will this guy end up resigning

altogether. >> neil covered it for many years and he said the only thing stopping this guy from resigning is that he is the grandson, with japan's ceo. >> i think you is a point there, dennis that when your name's on the company it's not exactly the easiest thing to resign. he's only been on the job for a little over a year and the plame is on him. >> he was brought in to fix things up a little bit, too, so. >> phil, eric, we've got to leave it. thank you very much, this will be the business school case study of the decade for sure. coming up, we're waiting on president obama to speak on jobs and the economy ask when it starts we will take you there live in maryland. battening down for a snowstorm. the halftime report in the wings. that and more when "power lunch" returns.

in a few moments from now, at oasis pecan cal contractors in maryland. president obama scheduled to speak on job creation and the small business initiatives and the watch is on to see what the president will say about the january employment report out this morning that showed

unemployment as a rate going down to 9.7% and we'll go to the president once he begins his remarks. >> before that we're on the half hour and half way through the trading day and let's talk about the headlines at this hour. shares of air gas soaring 40% after the company received a $5.1 unsolicited take over bid. mixed results from today's jobs report. employers cutting 20,000 job in january, but the unemployment rate hit a five-month low of 5.7% and shares of ppl rising after the pennsylvania utility posted better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and backedst full-year outlook. ppl's chief executive will join us in the next hour. over to you, michelle. >> ernesto is here to take us beyobd the big caps and looking at retailing mid-caps. >> there's a real rift in the large cap retailers today and a couple of key upgrades and a couple of key downgrades, notably coach and nordstroms, both very, very weak today and the gap being raised. if you look at the maps and some

of the active stocks, check out 99 cents only. two days ago and that's light years ago and a lot has happened and they reported much better-than-expected results and double their average normal volume and the stock is pennies away from a five-year high. it's about $1 million market cap. interestingly, there's a 10% short interest and that is going to be coming down. their stores, the majority of them, three-quarters of them are in california and their own advertisement says that it's the right store now given the economy and the way things are going. >> boy, they are exposed to the housing sector in a big way, aren't they? just because of their geographical locations. >> if you're a discounter and super clearance thing. so they're in the right place now and the gold family which found that it controls the majority of it right on down to an in-law who is the ceo and the son is the president. >> all in the family. >> dad's the chairman. 99 cents is doing very, very well today on big volume.

>> barnes & noble. >> can we ever stop talking about books, right? look at barnes & noble. you're up 4% today. 12% on the week. it's had a great, great week. 40% short interest, though, in this stock, and second highest in the retail index and second only to talbots. $5 billion in sales and $1 billion market cap. 700-odd stores. so keep an eye on that one. >> matt nesto, thank you. >> dennis, over to you. there are those who say the time is right to invest in emerging markets and of course, want everyone is onboard with that. not everyone is onboard with anything. one small cap name -- >> i think people have been too global alley focused and i think the opportunities in the next six to 12 to 18 months are in small-cap companies and i think that is the big story going forward and i think people will be surprised by that. >> one small cap name that did catch our attention this week, eastman kodak left for dead.

the old film company shares hit a new 52-week high and will that continue to rise? here to break it all down we have eric coal with standard & poor's. eric, a couple of surprising things for your company. and it's been a 52-week range ask now it's almost 7 bucks and the consumer digital segment's going well. accessories and printers and you see a slowing in the dekaying of the traditional old business. >> exactly. >> we've turned bullish on kodak and we've seen a number of improving trends in the areas you just mentioned. the biggest one being consumer digital ask kodak is making strong headway in areas like inkjet printers where they just recently entered a year or two ago and more traditional digital cameras and picture frames. it kind of shows you the brand name tps to hold some sway years after the company lost its dominant position in film, right? >> it really does. >> the story behind a lot of this is also cost-cutting. kodak has undergone significant

efforts on a multi-year, multibillion restructuring efforts and it's starting to bear fruit. it's trickling through in the bottom line. shouldn't hewlett-packard have bought these guys a long time ago? >> well, it's an attractive company right now, we think. we think it's very cheaply valued and based on our forward estimates and even after tripling in value, eric. it was at $2 and now it was over six. maybe the rise in the stock is behind it. >> we think the story is still in front of it and we see positive momentum and we see the stock that was priced for dead for years. they've turned it around. >> thanks very much, have a great weekend and we're waiting on the president at this hour and when obama gets going, we'll bring you there live. plus next hour, first on cnbc, the ceo of ppl and it has a market cap of $11 billion and he'll be here to talk earnings and energy prices and much more. we are back in just a minute on

w "power lunch" with the dow down 36 points.

there's the microphone. that's a beautiful shot right there. we're looking at atlanta, maryland, where the president is about to speak about job creation and the economy. goodness knows what we're -- they're obviously getting the shot set. >> he is there and in the house having a meeting and when he begins to speak, we'll find the

chief washington correspondent john harwood speaking with the movers and shakers in the capital and today he brings us the story of a hot name in hollywood as part of our continuing coverage of the grio 100 history makers in the making. >> hey, john. >> hey, tyler. i got to know will i. am through the 2000 presidential campaign when he made the video "yes i can" for barack obama. he's having an impact on the evolution of the music business itself. that's one reason yet partner website, grio.com has placed him among the top 100 african-americans making history right now with the industry battered by the digital revolution, will i. am is trying to make technology work for recording artists not against them. i'm working with black behr owe this concept. this is my phone and this is my, you call it my bat that allows me to hit my content into the

cloud, right? and that song they send into the cloud will probably have 2, 3, 4, 5 million followers. before i put it out into the universe i could attach two brands from my phone. i know exactly who's listening to it. i know exactly where they're listening to it. the original song and morphed it into, you know, a tighter perspective on that same production style. so then i called slash. >> so it's no oneder that qualcomm turned to will i. am for a product called flo tv by updating a classic from "the who." >>. ♪ ♪ ♪ for the people in haiti ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> and will i. am who grew up

poor in east los angeles hasn't forgotten his interest in social activism either. he's using his work on the song from that commercial to release it commercially with profits to benefit earthquake relief in haiti, tyler? >> all right. thank you so much, john harwood. and reminder, we are waiting for the president to speak down in maryland. he's at a manufacturing facility there and he'll talk about the jobs report this morning that will also help the small businesses and we'll carry that as soon as that happened. >> i love that black eyed peas song. i get dancing every time i hear it. >> the market is down slightly on the trading session. >> i do! >> now down about 60 points. oil was down about three bucks on the trading day. it's pared its losses considerably. we're waiting for the president. back in a moment. with fidelity, you can take your trading around the world, because now you can trade u.s. and foreign stocks online, in 12 markets, 24 hours a day, all from the same account, and settle in u.s. dollars

or the local currency. plus, we'll guide you with international research and realtime quotes, so you can diversify your portfolio, wherever -- whenever. and we'll be on call around the clock, while you trade around the globe. fidelity investments. turn here. what are you doing...? calling chase sapphire, seeing if we have enough points to stay longer. now? you don't have enough time... and you have to push all those buttons... no buttons, someone answers every time. yeah, right... bet you a massage... yeah, ok. hi, julie... i have a question about my points. hi, what button do i press for a massage? >> i appreciate the warm welcome from greg cummings and dennis meade and the folks at oasis, thank you very much. these guys are experts in heating and cooling systems though having spent some time in washington, i actually am

already familiar with hot air, i have to say. that, by the way, does not apply to the head of the small business administration karen mills who is here today and karen has focused like a laser on helping small businesses not only survive, but to thrive amidst the economic storm of the past two years. we're also joined here by ruth aggressor who is the owner and chef at pizzeria paradiso, and i'm a little upset with ruth because she did not bring samples, but reggie love has testified that the pizza's outstanding. she's got restaurants in washington. and also will pollack who is the owner and operator of the potomac riverboat company in alexandria, virginia, there's will. these folks know as every living soul in america does that these have been a rough couple of years for our economy and for

our country. the deepest downturn since the great depression ripped through our economy, costing more than $8 million jobs and rocking businesses large and small. that's why we took some very tough steps and in some cases, unpopular steps when i took office to break the back of this recession. today we received additional news suggesting that we are climbing out of the huge hole that we found ourselves in. last january, the month i took office almost 800,000 americans lost their jobs. today we learned that job losses for this january were 20,000. the unemployment rate dropped below 10% for the first time since the summer. manufacturing employment grew last month for the first time in three years led by increased activity and the production of cars and trucks and autoparts.

these number, while positive, are a cause for hope, but not celebration, because far too many of our neighbor, friends and family are still out of work. we can't be satisfied when another 20,000 have joined the ranks and millions more americans are underemployed picking up what work they can. it is encouraging, the job loss in january was a small fraction of what it was a year ago and that the unemployment rate last month went down and not up, understanding that these numbers will continue to fluctuate for months to come, these are welcome if modest signs of progress along the road to recovery. now even as we take additional steps to hasten that recovery, we know that there are limits to what government can do to create jobs. a true engine of jobbery asian will always be businesses. what government can do is fuel

that engine by giving entrepreneurs and companies the support to open their doors and to expand and to hire more workers. that's exactly what this administration intends to do and what we've been doing working with the sba and karen mills. we're starting with small businesses because that's what most of the new jobs do. over the past 15 years small businesses have created roughly 65% of new jobs in america. these are companies formed around kitchen tables and family meetings, formed when an entrepreneur takes a chance on a dream, formed when a worker decides it's time she became her own boss and it's worth remembering every once in a while, a small business becomes a big business, and then changes the world. that's why last week i proposed a new small business tax credit. $5,000 for every new employee you hire this year and a couple of these folks here, small business owners they talked to said they'd be interested in using that tax credit.

this week i proposed a new small business lending fund that would take $30 billion of the fund originally used to rescue big banks on wall street and use it to provide lending capital community banks on main street. i know we've got capital one bank here that's been a lender to oasis and capital bank, excuse me, and we appreciate the good work that you've done supporting this -- this company. under karen mills, sba has increased loan guarantees and reduced fees. steps that have increased sba lending by 86% and we've called for legislation to increase sb alone limits to allow us to guarantee loans of up to 5 million compared with the 2 million now and today i'm taking yet another step to assist small business owners, to get the capital that they need to grow and to hire. i'm proposing legislation that

allows firms to refinance their commercial real estate loans, their mortgages and under the sba. right now, even companies with great credit histories are facing challenges, refinancing and what are historically low rates. property values have fallen and many have doped. many surviving this downturn are at risk of defaulting which in turn would lead to even lower property values and less lending and not to mention lost jobs. in addition, i'm also proposing that we increase the limits for sb alones used for lines of credit and working capital. something that i know could benefit ruth's business and countless others. the truth is the economy can be growing like gangbusters for years on end and it's still not easy to run a small business. it's not easy to stay ahead of your competitors. it's not easy to keep your costs down and to do right by your employees, and to constantly

innovate and adapt in a changing world. talking to ruth, she reminds me it's not easy keeping up with health care costs and so ruth is very anxious to see health reform passed so that small businesses can pick up the costs for their employees and in this deep and lasting recession, a hard job has been that much harder because for much of the last year, people weren't buying and customers weren't calling and banks were not lending. but even in the face of these obstacles, even in these tough times all across the country there's people like rick and dennis and ruth and will who haven't given up. you guys wake up every day and seek a way to safely navigate these troubled waters to fulfill your only gags to your families and to your employees and your customers. and in that determination, that resolve, you embody what's best in america and you keep making

america stronger. next week, congress will start debating many of the jobs proposals i've outlined today and in recent days. many proposals to benefit small business. many of the proposals to spur hiring. if there are additional ideas from either party i'm happy to consider them as well. but what i hope, what i strongly urge is that we work quickly and we work together to get this done. america's small businesses are counting on us. so thank you very much, everybody. and thank you, guys. >> president obama making some comments about this morning's unemployment report, but also calling for some new rules that would allow mortgage refinancing under the small business administration, citing the fact that a number of homeowners have had trouble even with interest rates at these low levels, refinancing their mortgages, partly because some of them are under water, partly because of

tight credit conditions. how easily do you think the president's going to be able to push this sba measure through, john? what kind of resistance might he get? >> it's interesting to see whatever costs will generate pushback from congress who are worried about deficits. that's the overarching question over the new push and pull over new jobs legislation. this president has try to turn every he can. he talked about unemployment numbers falling being cause for hope but not celebration. that's absolutely true. everyone knows this is a sugar high, this number. mark zandy told me today we're still looking at unemployment over 10% by election day. >> we'll talk more about jobs in the next hour, too. >> i'm not sure there's 100% agreement on what's going on with the economy, but right after, this, the "fast money" halftime report. chase because now you can trade u.s. and foreign stocks online,

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welcome to the "fast money" halftime report. dow breaks 1000 and commodities falling again. should you be money to work today and, if so, where? your "fast money" crew today, steve grasso from the floor and katie stockton of mkm partners. what's the volume like today? what's the feeling like? >> yesterday, i was actually shocked. it was about 1.4 yesterday, but it was really a confusion day. so i don't think that was the flushout. you and i had that conversation. i don't think yesterday was it. i'm looking today. i would guess that the volume has to be about 1.6, 1.7 for me really to feel that fear. i felt confusion yet out of clients, not the fear. and i think that's what you have to look for. >> scott, when we see the dollar

right now sitting close to session highs, does that tell you that the risk appetite in general still not there and so, therefore, maybe people are buying some protection? >> yeah, that's absolutely the case. as everybody gets afraid, they all run to the dollar. we saw huge buyer of the uup jan 24 call. thaers exposure to a stronger dollar. they bought 100,000 options which is 10,000 shares of the etf. they spent $1.05 for each option or just over $10 million to get that exposure. that's a big bet that the dollar would have to rally at least 5% more from here for that to be in the money. >> wow, let's connect the dots. katie, you have the chart of the day. what do they indicate the direction will be for the markets? >> the s&p 500 yesterday broke down support based on one of my models, right around 1080.

that would increase downside risk to about the 200 day moving average. that also happens to be going back to those october/november 2009 lows. so i think the breakdown is significant. and what was wild about yesterday was the breadth o on that decline. we saw down volume to up volume reach 35-1 which is pretty unheard of. >> scott, you're also a technici technician, but you're a little more positive. when you look at the charts, why do you interpret the same chart as being up side potentially of 10%? >> well, i'll tell you right now, i see potentially because i'm not involved. i'm out of my long. so if we pull into that 200 day, if we pull off 10% from the high, i'll be a buyer. heil be testing that. you should get excited. the volatility is picking up in the market. as steve said, if we can get close to that capitulation type puke out, which i think we're getting close to, look to get involved and get a plan

together. >> scott, i want to go back to you when it comes to the vix. we noted a lot of calls being bought in the vix. are you seeing that today? >> it looks like the vix will now break above the 200-day moving average, which is significant. that had been a cap on the vix in the past. and things are a little bit different today, as grasso said. we have the potential to see more fear today. >> all right. let's move on to the next right now. we continue to watch the commodities sell-off intensifying midday. gold, copper crude, crude breaking $70 a barrel. gold off more than 13 bucks. steve grasso, at the same time we're seeing some of these commodity stocks, the freeport mcmorans of the world. >> everyone is watching the 200-day moving averages. freeport dipped below that for a heartbeat, then rallied right back. it had a positive price target increase out of barclays about

that caught a big. if you look at the plus level action right now, it implying the value of copper at -- let me just look over here, at 250 a pound and the current level is 286 a poubd. everything being evaul, freeport should have been equal today. >> katie stockton, when you look at the dollar chart tore copper chart for that matter, what do you see? because obviously key to this today is a stronger dollar, weaker copper prices. so pick your chart. what do you see in the forecast for commodities? >> if you look at the dollar index or the dxy, it is above a very important technical level based on the fibbenachie levels. it would suggest a target of about 84, which would be, of course, significant not only of the dollar but for commodities. we have crude oil below its 200-day moving average. support at $45 a barrel.

if it does confirm that breakdown, that breakdown would be real. >> let's talk about something that's actually working today. that is surprisingly toyota. stock able to rally as the company's president toyota apologizes, promising a global quality task fore, et cetera. when i take a look at this stock, you think of past recalls, names like merck, names like ford with the firestone recall and they did not see this bounce back for a long time. they didn't recapture levels prior to the recall for years. do you believe in this rally? scott, redler. >> you get to see some opportunity. yesterday while the market accelerated into the close, it did not make new lows. so technically there was a divergence there to take advantage of as an active trader. we did go long, some in the money calls. for a bounce back. i'm not looking long term, i'm looking for a trade back to 75, 77, then we'll figure out what

the real ramifications of these recalls are down the road. >> katie, what level does toyota need to hold above in order to return to early '09 levels? >> right, the support on tm's chart is about 72 1/2. a break below which would suggest move back into the high 50s. >> let's call the close now and go around the horn. do you buy or sell going into this final section of this week? >> if we get extreme enough and we get down to the 1040 level, i'll look to start dipping and buying around that area. >> katie? >> i'm a seller. there's really too many breakdowns this week to ignore. >> scott? >> i'm a seller. the kind of risk we're taking right now, which is sovereign risk is not the risk for which longs would be compensated. >> governor grasso. >> too many dominoes. the s&p wants to get down around 1000. i'd be a seller. >> a bundle of sunshine here on the "fast money" report. rauf week for stocks had investors on the run.

is a correction on its way? plus earnings can get this market going. how do you protect yourself from the down side? a worldwide crisis of fear. european and asian markets dip close to 6% this year. stocks in the states now down close to 5%. is this about the debt threat or more to it? high net worry. a new survey of the well-to-do says they're not feeling so good about their money in this market. what are they doing to keep it safe? plus, the super bowl and

wall street. how one of the brightest math kids in market is applying his skills to the art of picking the winner of the big game. he's been right the last five years. and what a fascinating week it has been. welcome to the second hour of "po "pourer lunch." president obama speaking moments ago saying the latest job numbers are a cause for hope but not celebration. investors certainly not feeling hopeful or celebrating certainly. fear fueling wall street. the dow below 10000. oil plummets. we have word that ben bernanke is set to testify. >> i'm sue herera. there are some bright spots. travelers, at&t, walmart and dupont are among the dow's 30 winners. >> ppl beat the street. the ceo will join us first on

cnbc. tyson foods smashing analysts' estimates. ate na pushing higher. we should get to the market. >> i'm dennis neil. let's get straight to this market action. let's go to bob pisani. >> here's a couple of headlines here. stocks close in europe at 1130, the stock market droops here. the second time in a row. guys in europe are getting concerned. they want to lighten up. second thing that happened that's important here, is dollarle rallied at the exact same moment we had yesterday. of course, what happens when that happens? it puts pressure on commodities and puts pressure on commodity stocks. all the big names in energy and the material groups on the weak side. and sharon, we saw a heck of a lot of contracts traded in oil in the last hour and a half. >> that's right. over 400,000 contracts traded today, bob, and this is the second straight day of massive

contracts and massive trader here in oil. we're looking at oil prices right now that are right around $70 a barrel. after going to that 6950 low, that massive technical sell-off that we saw. look at what happened to precious metals. we're looking at gold. will it hold above the 1050 level? but look at the huge sell-off we're seeing in silver. it's even outpaced the sell-off we've seen in gold today. >> thank you, sharon epperson. global fear tightening its grip on the markets as investors worry about sovereign debt and economic growth. the dow falling below 10000. is this an overreaction or are we facing another blowup? let's bring in our global task force. from ubs. jay bryson at wells fargo. and simon hobbes. i'll start with you, jay. you're the global economist. when we talk so much about whether or not greece is going to default, portugal, ireland, et cetera, spain. how concerned should the u.s. economy or members of the u.s.

be? how much exposure do we have? what kind of global impact can that have? >> you should definitely be concerned. portugal, ireland, spain, greece, the whole works defaulting, you're looking at another potential nasty financial crisis like we had back in the fall of 2008. >> do you think they will dedpault? >> at the end of the day, what i think will happen is the imf will come up with some sort of package, at least for greece, to try to stabilize the situation over there. i don't think beer at that point just yet. but there's a significant possibility -- >> one of the issues is that it's affecting the appetite for risk. and it's changing the dynamic in the currency markets dramatically. >> yeah, that's right. i mean, we're in a situation now where there's still a lot of uncertainty about things and risk appetite has fallen. so we're nearing the point of a technical correction, if you like. it's being driven by catalyst. we know that markets don't like

uncertainty. while that persists and i think for a while, volatility will stay high even if some of the underlying fundamentals. >> do you assume that that horrendous possibility is out there? and do you get defensive or do you discount in that it won't happen and get aggressive on a pullback? >> we're still pretty positive about the fundamentals, about earnings and evaluations. that means if you can stay the course through this, you will have to deal with some volatility. but there is still some up side. the nature of returns this year is very much likely to be different from last year, we do think that risk trades that dominated last year will be much, much -- work not nearly as as well. you'll be much less cyclically this year. >> how much of a threat or challenge of this is the solidarity of the euro? >> it is obviously a threat. it is obviously a risk. but i think that the working assumption of people here should be that it be okay. there will be a lot of gnashing

of teeth, brinkmanship. it's too big to fail for these governments. they won't let it go, either with the imf -- we've got a summit on thursday, they won't come to an agreement there. >> but are these the days that make the germans think why did we get involved in this? >> it might be. but the west german ds that with reunification. this is a currency that's used on the streets for people that live in very close proximity. they're not going to abandon it at this stage. they will sort it out. it's like if they propped up the banks, they're going to prop up their own currency system. >> portugal is small compared to -- >> one thing i wanted to ask one of our other guests. jay bryson, one thing a year ago when the biggest economy in the world melted down because it did a bad job on risk management at ubs. yes, let the rest of the world quake. but when a tiny company that makes olive oil and feta cheese wobbles on debt, why should i quake in my boots. >> what i would say to that is, yes, you're right.

greece is a small little country, right, but so was thailand back in 1997. >> exactly. >> and thailand was just the first of many. so there could be other ones following along. >> bau year later we should be hedged better so we don't have a meltdown like that. we should be much better at this now, shouldn't we, jeff? >> there's a lot of leverage that's come out of the system. i don't think you're looking at another lehman sort of meltdown at this point. but this could turn into a relatively financial crisis if things aren't -- >> could i just point out, sw these smaller countries, you're in a different situation because they don't have control of their interest rates or their monetary system or their exchange rate, the solutions to their problem are all structural. and it looks very, very tough. that's not what we'll see elsewhere. because they'll be able to deflate -- >> the united states can inflate. but portugal cannot. >> and the root cause of this, as i mentioned yesterday, is the fact that the european central bankers said after the end of the year, it won't accept a

triple b minus. they can always re-extend that. the other thing that's interesting at the moment and it's good that we're now down 8% from the s&p high. we were in a very odd market before. we weren't reacting to earnings. it was all very strange. the other thing that's happening at the moment and lord knows where fair value would be if we didn't have the liquidity pumped in at this point. we've become very punch drunk over the last two years. and most people are effectively trading momentum. once we realize that the central bans have got us in a status and they'll hold us there -- and we have ben bernanke speaking on wednesday -- then people can have more confidence and their time horizons will move out to the 18 months that they're supposed to be looking ahead in the economy. that will be about jobs rebounding. >> i got a four-minute time horizon. >> jeff, if i can ask you, one of the themes that we've been hearing as we interview other people on the air is that we

need to play the strong dollar play that the dollar has bottomed and it's becoming fundamentally stronger. but to simon's point, is this actually a strong dollar environment or is it a weak euro environment that is dominating here? should we be counting on the dollar bottoming and the ripple effects that go through equities and debt? >> no, i would say we're talking about a risk trade not a fundamental trade. we know that some of the underlying fundamentals in the u.s. economy are actually still relatively weak. we're seeing a flight to quality, at least within currency markets. we're not necessarily seeing that in other markets. so what it suggests to me is it's about risk reduction very broadly speaking. the play's from a strategic perspective in equities are about where the fundamentals are strongest and taking low risk positions. i don't know that i would count on strengthen the dollar for the balance of the year because i think if we get any sort of resolution on these issues, that will be a little bit of a

vulnerrer inable trade. >> thank you very much. let's move to breaking news now. it appears that bernard madoff's penthouse on new york -- this is breaking news, folks, on the upper east side will soon have a new owner. there is a signed contract to sell that property, which was seized by u.s. marshals as part of madoff's guilty plea. we don't know who the buyer is nor the price. the last list price was $8.9 million. any of you guys? >> no. >> not any of you. >> as michelle said, we work in basic cable. i remember in those buildings you got to pay cash and put up six months worth of -- >> you get around them, michelle. >> does it come furnished? i don't think it even comes furnished. >> they sold off a lot of the furnishings, including the temper-peddic. >> anything over 100, she has to report to the court. >> and up next, the jobless rate is down, right? but long-term unemployment is

up. government is hiring. construction companies are borrowing. what are we going to do about this? a three-martini lunch would help, but do we need a $100 billion jobs bill. >> you'll need the three-martini lunch if we get the $100 billion jobs bill go through. >> some is on mna activity. tyson foods better than expected earnings up 3.75%. with fidelity, you can take your trading around the world, because now you can trade u.s. and foreign stocks online, in 12 markets, 24 hours a day, all from the same account, and settle in u.s. dollars or the local currency. plus, we'll guide you with international research and realtime quotes, so you can diversify your portfolio, wherever -- whenever. and we'll be on call around the clock, while you trade around the globe.

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so looks like the dow has taken another leg down here. down about 70 points. 9932. weakest members of the dow, ge, our parent company, off 3 1/2%. merck and jpmorgan down 1 3/4% each. more than 8 million people have lost their jobs since the recession started in december of 2007. the number of long-term unemployed jumped to just about 6.3 million. and on top of this, those who have jobs who are working longer hours. so do those numbers. call f call for a $100 billion jobs bill. gentlemen, welcome. mark, i'm assuming that you would be in favor of this extra

stimulus to create jobs? >> yes, i think that extra stimulus is no doubt needed. the first stimulus did have a positive effect. people forget that first stimulus was a combination of tax cuts, safety net programs and direct spending. the second stimulus which has been proposed also includes a combination of tax cuts and infrastructure spending. i think the second -- this should jobs bill ought to include a focus on the chronically unemployed. >> a combination of tax cuts and focuses on the long-term unemployed. >> we do need to look at the long-term unemployment rate and tax cuts, but with all due respect to my friend the mayor, i don't think the stimulus bill worked. unemployment rose sharply last year. the slight dip in unemployment that we've seen is due to the fact that people are being hired for the census. it doesn't reflect the true picture in this country. the way that we can stimulate employment in the country is to

give people a tax holiday, to keep the tax cuts that president bush put in effect intact and not put an increased tax on people and get government out of the way and let the private sector run the economy. >> don't we need to rebuild the inf infrastructure in this country? whether the real reason is to do it to create jobs or to do it because we need better bridges and roads and water systems? don't we need to spend that money? >> absolutely. and i think that we need to take a very candid look at the infrastructure in the united states, look at our transportation grid, we need to look at our bridges, our roads, but i don't want to have a system where the government decides let's have $100 billion and let's start paving roads. we need to look at our existing infrastructure. the government should not irresponsibly be spending money. >> was that a yes or a no. >> a qualified one. >> that's a qualified yes. >> the fact is that there's a strong system op many, many

projects in the planning stages and that we do need to rebuild our infrastructure in a very significant way. water systems, we need to build rail systems, we need to fix existing road systems. it will put people to work. >> but to ling that to jobs, here's a problem. what is it 187 stim pack? now if you tack on top of that another 100 billion, the economy will have already recovered. >> the way congress operates, even with the most -- the fastest speed, it's still going to be some time before that money actually hits the street. and the idea is that in the great depression, a mistake was made. they declared victory against the great depression too soon. >> right. >> and almost provoked a second, a second, if you will, recession. so i think it's important -- >> i want to take issue with the whole infrastructure focus. maybe our infrastructure does need to be rebuilt, that's a

different question. bear me out here. >> fine. >> our economy was very different during the great depression. we had people dropping out of high school to the point where 60, 70% of the population did not have a high school degree. we're at this point now where 7% of the working population in the united states does not have a high school degree. my point is that infrastructure jobs are not necessarily the jobs that this country needs. we've changed dramatically. you know who you're going to help a lot with infrastructure jobs in illegal immigrants which make up 20% of the construction trade. those are the facts according to pew. you have to be careful what you wish for. >> but you can help architecture firms, engineering firms planning. >> i agree. >> there's a lot of white collar jobs. >> but then you'll raise your taxes to help pay for the help you're giving them. ron christie, the price tag on a jobs program, do you oppose it more because we simply can't afford it or because it's ineffective. $1.6 trillion deficit, that's like my waistline.

what's another ten pounds? >> i won't make any waistline comments, but seriously, one of the points made a few moments ago was spot on. the $787 billion stimulus package that was passed last year, they haven't spent half of it. you mean to suggest to me that we need to tack another $100 billion on it right now? that we can't afford? congress is spending money that we don't have. we're going to bankrupt future generations. i'm so worried about the fiscal state of this country that people say oh, 100 billion here, 100 billion there. that starts adding up. we don't need to do it because democrats in congress will think oh, this will win me votes. we need to spend money in the most cost effective. >> my friend ron is leading the chorus of no, no, no, don't do anything. >> he didn't say that. he said cut taxes. >> the tax in this particular plan, number one. number two, mark zandy says that the stimulus has had an effect. >> he's just a man. that doesn't mean -- >> he's just a guy. >> he's a good, solid adviser of

john mccain. he's not a partisan kind of guy. >> you may be the guy of no, no, no says mayor morial, but you you would say yes, yes, yes on the new orleans saints, won't you? >> who dat all the way. can i get a vote from ron? >> who are you rooting for, ron? >> i'm a peyton manning fan but i'm pulling for the mayor's new orleans saints. >> we have reached common ground, ladies and gentlemen. >> what just happened there? >> thank you very much. mayor, good luck to the saints this weekend. still ahead bracing for the big snowstorm. what the wealthy think about investing in this economy. >> the super bowl's this weekend? take a look at how wall street's fear index is doing. higher, no surprise considering what we've seen. back above 27 now for the vix. they've served for decades as a golden, tasty sidekick...

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a nasty snowstorm is making its way up the east coast, and we got the weather channel's nick walker joining us with what you need to know for your business travel ahead. take it. >> i tell you what, you need to stay home. because this is a storm that's probably going to go down in history. as much as two feet of snow could fall in northern virginia, including the washington, d.c., area on up toward baltimore. the snow has already begun here around d.c. and baltimore. it has yet to come here around philadelphia, but it will, as we get through the afternoon and evening hours. you are under winter storm warnings. all the area in white all the way up to pittsburgh, back toward ohio, back to west virginia and into central virginia. that orange area, new jersey,

delaware, those are blizzard warnings. we could see wind gusts out on the jersey shore of 50 miles an hour. 35-mile-an-hour gusts blowing the snow in philadelphia tomorrow. the winds in d.c./baltimore may reach 25 miles an hour. that should be galle pushing off shore, but it will be snow and persistently falling here around d.c., up toward philadelphia, through the afternoon and overnight, then into new york by the time we get into tomorrow, probably 3 to 5 inches of snowfall there. 8 to 12 in philadelphia. then there's that whopping two feet of snow we can expect to see in d.c. that would come close to setting bigtime records. >> nick, my trip to the keeners super bowl party in mclean, virginia, on saturday, i probably should postpone. >> i hope you got the big screen tv real close by. maybe getting out on the roads will be tough. >> thanks very much, nick. give you some headlines. from congressman barney frank saying that he believe tlas the

impasse declared earlier today between chris dodd and senator shelby on the senate side will actually speed a vote in the senate to financial regulation or reregulation, reform. call it what you will. and that he expects the bill will finally move through congress by the summertime. so those headlines from senator frank that the impasse will actually cause a sooner vote. >> because he thinks it will force the republicans' hands. >> right. >> you got a member of the house trying to tell u.s. senators how they should be doing their job. it will be interesting to see what dodd thinks about barney frank's comments. >> see what the majority of 41 actually deal with this. >> i hate to be the bearer of the bad news for the bulls but the s&p is down better than 1% right now. we penetrated a key technical support level on the s&p and the dow is off almost triple digits, about 98 points on the trading session. you really want to stay tuned because we have plenty more on "power lunch."

>> plus wake up and smell the bread and the food. some good news on the jobs front. two small businesses expanding and hiring in a really tough environment. ♪ do a little dance sun life financial has never taken government bailout money, yet no one knows our name. ♪ get down tonight that's about to change. so you'll pay for the tour, but i have to change my name? no, you're still kc, but from now on, they will be the sun life band. it's funky. sooner or later, you'll know our name.

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welcome back. the dow closing in on a triple digit decline. in fact, it was more than that just a few moems ago. ge and boeing, the biggest losers today as the major indexes continue to slide this afternoon. crude oil continues to slide. falling below $70 this morning as a stronger dollar and 20,000 jobs were cut in january. toyota's president apologizing for the massive global recalls over sticking gas pedals and more. the japanese automaker stock rising, however, about 3% at last check.

dennis? >> we're going beyond the big caps and finding those smaller names that are big movers today. matt nesto has been running his proprietary screens to show us what's off the charts. surprise us. >> it's always fascinating, dennis. check ot resmed, rmd. >> those snore machines, i use one. >> that's information we didn't ask for. but there you go. rmd, an all-time high, dennis, thank you very much. a 52-week high. up to market perform from underperform after better than expected earnings and 23% revenue growth. >> "the wall street journal" story on this could do it. >> they'll do over $1 billion in revenue no thanks in small part to your contribution. second candidate is vertex, this

is a widely known and widely held stock. the largest midcap. $7.7 billion. it's bigger than almost half of the s&p 500. well, as big as nordstrom's and mattel and xerox. the stock is down about a three-month low here today. it's in the biotech index, in the nasdaq 100 n the midcap, the russell 1000. their revenues beat. e small. first positive earnings surprise, though, in at least two years. that's as far back as i could look. hepatitis c, cystic fibrosis, cancer, they're all doing it. >> over to michelle. with the dow now down triple digits. >> yep. 9892. we're watching a new series today called "life on the streestreet s." finding out the surprising ways that people and businesses are dealing with the current state of the economy. we're starting today right here

in new york city. >> we have the electrician coming tomorrow to install the lights. >> he admits it's tough launching a new business in new york city. >> to be opening a restaurant in this climate is a little nerve-racking but also exciting. >> he and his partners are taking leaps of faith and taking advantage of a downturn economy. >> i wouldn't say advantage, i would rather say opportunity. >> they run a successful wholesale bakery in long island city, but they're opening up their very first retail store in manhattan now. for them the economic downturn happened long before last year. >> in 2007, our flour bill, which is our main ingredient, you know, quadrupled. so we tighten our belts. we try to pay off as many loans that we have pending at the time when economic tsunami hit. >> with an affordable rent from

new york's essex street market, the partners are comfortable with their decisions to open. >> we feel that it makes sense that we can see something that we can afford and, therefore, sleep well at night. >> for ryan, it was a combination of factors. >> we were able to open because of the really good deal we had on rents and being able to work with purveyors, being able to get a quality product at a cheaper price. i'm able to pass all this on our customers and be able to offer them the same dishes at a lower price than anybody else in the neighborhood. >> the founders albanian, serbian and bosnian. all immigrants. they're pushing it forward. >> this stuff smells so wonderful. >> i know. >> i want my mike right next to that. can you hear the crunch. >> matt nesto says you can't go wrong with the olive bread. >> if we had smell-a-vision,

there's nothing better than freshly bake bread. it has beautiful texture. the sound is fabulous. just stop. will you stop it? i'm going to hit you with this baguette. >> we wish them the best of luck. >> this is used as a weapon. >> another new york city, a lot of empty storefronts, a lot of people who had to go out of business. they really got some mental steel here, ready to go forward despite the economy. >> with a quality product that's appropriately priced and they'll do well. >> and the ambition of three guys who came to this country from another place. >> right. that's what this country's all about. >> 25% of all technology companies from '95 to 2005 were founded by immigrants in this country. >> i'm not surprised. >> and more start-ups thrive during bad times. >> they will thrive, i'm sure. >> that's so nice. >> nearly a year and a half since the economic meltdown, investors still lack confidence in the stock market. you can see that by the triple digit loss that we have today in the dow jones industrial average. that's according to a new survey by the american institute of certified public accountants.

it says more than half of affluent investors are, quote, not very confident in the market. 74% are more risk adverse and a huge 87% of them are spending less. so joining us now in a cnbc exclusive, brent lipschitz, he's on the executive committee of the cpa committee that did this survey. welcome, sir, a pleasure to have you here. >> thank you very much. >> these are pretty sobering statistics. we're talking about affluent investors who have typically between half a million and 5 million in assets under management, is that correct? >> that's correct. the stat sicks aren't too surprising given the demographics of the population. more and more baby boomers are set to retire. if they're looking at their savings, even though they have significant wealth. their lifestyles are being pared back because they can't spend what they're used to spending. seeing that statistic doesn't too much shock me given that a large population is the baby

boomers. >> some of it has to do with uncertainty, though, also about how their tax structure is going to be affected, and that affects their investment philosophy and their investment decisions. >> correct. with the obama releasing their proposal this week, it's pretty clear that the top tax rates will be going up, the 39.6% bracket to 36% bracket. so there's decisions that can be made now including roth i.r.a. conversions. there's planning opportunities that i think are still out there that really should be considered with the comprehensive financial plan. >> do you happen to know if there are any differences from region to region or by age? >> this survey does not stress that. but my feeling is that the midwest has probably been hit the hardest. >> which has been hit the hardest? >> the midwest, i would presume, has been hit the hardest. >> i also was fascinated by the fact that we had thought

spending was picking up, especially the luxury end has been very strong. the survey indicates that a lot of them are changing the way that they spend and intend to spend, which does not bode well for certain sectors of retail and the economy. >> the traditional consumer goods market will remain fairly consistent. but i think individuals are looking at luxury brands, you know, making sure that the brands have stood the test of time. in fact, our firm has put out a report on just that topic, consumer spending. >> one of the other issues is they are more risk adverse now, even with the financial regulation that's being talked about, even with capital requirements. a number of things that has been done has not changed their attitude towards risk. >> yeah. that's true. it's interesting, when we talk to a prospective client about investing, we take them through an investment portfolio questionnaire. and in that questionnaire, we measure a person's risk tolerance. typically one of the questions

is can you withstand a 50% market fall? and in the past, clients would answer that question but wouldn't think anything of it typically. now reality has set in. and i think clients really now have to look at their portfolios and really look at that question and address it with a straight face. >> and some of them probably have been hit by 50%. thank you so much, brent, we appreciate it. >> quick points. i got to tell you, you ask in the survey, gee, could you withstand a 50% drop, of course people will quake at that. the superrich are way too risk adverse right now. remember what warren buffett always said, when everyone else is fearful, get greedy. >> when they've done that question on the survey, people would say, yes. >> people say yes. >> now that they've been through it, they say no. >> i'm saying that doesn't surprise -- >> if you want to be positive, you say this was a good learning experience. >> there you go. we learned a lot. >> enough of the doggone learning experience for me.

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to dow sliding rather dramatically in the last half

hour. now at 9856. so is the bear back or are we in for more losses next week? time for our triple play. senior managing partner with mer rid yen equity partners. at the cme richard regan founding partner at pro trading course.com. and tom riley of scs commodities. rich regan, let me start by asking you, the vix is up. do you expect that this spike in the fear index will be an enduring thing? by which i mean over the next three to four weeks or months? >> yes. i do. you know, i think that the real driving force on this increase in the vix has been that foreign investment has been increasingly fearful of sovereign debt in the euro zone. that's driving dollars to u.s. treasuries which means they have to convert their money into dollars. that's why we're seeing the dollar move higher also. the stocks selling off on this, of course, the vix almost has to go higher.

>> what we saw in oil, do you attribute it to any of these -- we started to see rumors coming across e-mails about a commodity hedge fund out there that's taken a really big hit. >> they were talking about that yesterday afternoon. we've heard a little bit more about that this morning, although they were denying it this morning. i think pretty much most of the sell-off has to do with the strength of the dollar and the weakness in stocks. we're going to see continued strength in the dollar. >> how do you establish a position going in to a weekend, a weekend where you may get news out of europe, and you have the fed chief testifying next week on capitol hill? what do you do? >> you know, at this point right now, it's very difficult to maintain any sort of position going into the weekend. the confidence is not there. technically all levels have been broken below the 10000 level. psychologically, the confidence is not there. everyone really has to wait and see what comes out this weekend. everything that we hear globally has been affecting our markets. additional information will dictate where we are next week.

then we get the retail numbers for january. that will add a little spice to our markets next week. >> tom riley, i had thought whenever there's a panic in the markets, gold value soars, yet we've been seeing gold plunging at the time that the panic is rising. please explain this to me. >> i think it's basically you see people got into gold as a reaction to the weak dollar. with the strong dollar, you see all of the week longs being chased out and all commodity prices across the board being pretty much hammered. >> we ask this question a little bit earlier. is the dollar long term firming up, or is this simply the weakness of the euro? is it safe to move into the gold market on these dips in anticipation that things might reverse rather quickly if the imf comes to europe's aid. >> i would wait a little bit before getting long any more gold. it's going to come off a little more before it's worthwhile buying. definitely we have problems, but apparently people in the world have worst problems than us,

most notably, the europeans. >> is there a bubble in treasury bonds? >> i don't think so. they still have plenty of room to go. the dollar started just coming up. only about a 20% retracement from last year's move. plenty of room to two. >> you would feel comfortable putting fresh money in? >> i do. i do. i think there's been a lot of supply that the feds have put on the market but the demand's been there to meet it. >> the author of the black swan came out this week, he was at a conference and said that everyone, everyone, he used that word, should short treasuries. >> yeah, i don't buy it. i go with what warren buffett says, if everybody's fearful and everybody is saying one direction, that's a good time to get in. >> gentlemen, thank you. rest up. it will be a busy week again next week. we'll be there for you because this market is selling off with the dow down about 126 points the last time i checked the s&p is down as well. ail off three bucks. the gold market off, although it

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all righty. as you can see there, the white house is white today in a town washington, my home town, that handles snow so beautifully. so very nicely in washington. they're expecting two feet of it before all is said and done. and we're getting into some deep stuff in the markets at this hour with the dow industrials down more than 100 and some points. let's check and see if we can see a quote there. bob pisani is standing by. this situation seems to have eloaded in the last hour. any particular reason you can cite. >> take a look at the dollar index. we're back to this unwind of the

dollar carry trade. whatever you want to call it. but remember it started a few months ago. i kind of went away. it's happening again. as the dollar ticked up here in the last 20 minutes, we saw stocks moving to the down side. we saw some of the bigger international names, what you might call conglomerate names like our parent company general electric. we saw chevron move down. the energy complex has been weak all day today. how much of an unwind has to happen -- >> is the dollar ticking up because people are going into the weekend afraid -- >> exactly. >> -- of what's going to happen in europe? >> well, yes, as we saw as europe closed, the u.s. stock market weakened, the dollar moved up. so there may be some people who are simply saying we don't know what's going to happen over the weekend in europe. >> but they're positioning in case something does happen over the weekend. >> yes, exactly. >> thank you, bob. >> on to the super bowl and the

quant jock. one of the brightest minds has unlocked his box of tricks to figure out the winner ahead of the game. he's called it right the last five years. in a cnbc exclusive, steve sapra with analytic investors, joins us. let's go to the markets. all that slaughter going on two or three days in a row. are your charts telling you that the pain is going to get worse? >> well, you know, over any given short run horizon, it is very difficult to say what the market is going to do. and i think the best way to look at the market is to look at valuations on long-term holding horizons, one, two, three years. >> in that case, are you buying today? >> i would be buying today. i'd be buying today and i probably wouldn't pay much attention to it for the next 12 months. valuations are compelling here,

but very much a buy and hold strategy. >> buy and turn away. that takes nerves of steel. you want to turn to the super bowl stuff. more fun and less scary. who do you see winning the super bowl? >> well, what we've done is we've developed a method at analytic to measure the performance of nfl teams relative to market expectations, very much in the same way that we measure the performance of stocks relative to investor expectations. what we find is that in the super bowl, the teams that are the darling teams, the teams that have had the best on-the-field performance or who have exceeded investor expectations tend to not do as well when the super bowl comes around. >> way too much preamble, cut to the chase. >> or how do you bet on it? >> the chase is take the saints in the super bowl. >> with the points? >> with the points? >> the points right now? it's about 5 points. it was 5 1/2.

as long as the saints lose the game by less than 5, you'll be good. but i'll go out on a limb and say the saints are going to win the game by a touchdown. >> even though they're total rookies, you have peyton manning, he's a machine that man. nerves of steel. super bowl all the time. >> you have a very good track record on this. the last five or six years, you picked the winner. we will see. >> good job. >> we'll see whether your prediction comes true or not. we know one thing for sure, the dow is sliding. we'll come back and look at the markets one more time as we close this very busy week. thing as taking a chance?

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monday seems such a long time ago this week as the dow is now down over the week by 2 1/4%. right now down 162 at 9839. >> remember the 2% decline comes in the wake of two great days. >> two very good days on the 1st and 2nd. i guess the dow saw its shadow on groundhog day and went back in the hole. >> being afraid of your own shadow is a good metaphor because i want to believe that

our governments are good regulators and our global scale banks are smart enough so they wouldn't get shook like they did a year ago just because a couple of small countries in europe or wobbling a bit. >> what's the domino effect? if the imf makes positive statements, that might help greece, but if it spreads to italy, portugal -- >> if we're reliant on the imf, god help us all. >> that will do it for "power lunch." . it is 2:00 on wall street. stocks are selling off again right now at the lows of the session, down triple digits on the jobs report. the dow well below the 10000 mark. today one undiscovered real ray of hope for the job market. it is 2:00 in both these places. in the low 80s in sunny miami

and in the low 30s and snowy washington, d.c. washington is closed for business. is it a sign that he announced his bonus this afternoon. and it is 11:00 p.m. in dubai. a major auction under way with where animal sold for $2.7 million. an impending sign of doom or a sign of a recovery. what creature is worth $2.7 million amid this financial crisis? i'm erin burnett. this is "street signs." let's get straight to the trading floors because we are just touching the lowest levels of the session. bob pisani is at the big board, scott's at the nasdaq. i'm sorry, rick santelli is with us. bob, we started out, then we kind of held and then in the past half an hour we dropped down. >> yeah, i think the issue still remains the dollar. it's not lost on traders. 11:30 eastern time europe closed, second day in a row, u.s. stocks