live from the nasdaq market site, this is "fast money." wall street waiting for financial reform, and more speculation surfaces that china is tampering its amazing economic numbers it's days like these that you have to find the trader within, put your emotions aside and go with the tape. guy, a rally like today, do you change your mind?

>> i have my doubts about anything. i have doubts about whether or not we've landed on the moon. many, many things. but i don't have doubts about this trade, mel. do you remember when burlington northern got bought by buffet and all the railways rallied? we said not so fast. csx reported earnings about a week and a half, two weeks ago. very disappointing. the stock was around $50. we said get out. it will trade back down. lo and behold, here we go, we traded $42 and change today. i think you can own csx at these levels, tight stop. that's the type of trade you want to be in. >> nice to be back. tim, ambassador, what's your take on the lack of details on the greece bailout. >> i'm not surprised. we're not going to get concrete action because they're not sure what concrete action they can do to set precedence that would be tough to uncover later. the key rhetoric said words like a signal, a political message. so the good news is you've got the eu at the same table working

very aggressively to support greece. they're saying all the right things. greece has to follow here. the long-term ramifications for the euro are negative. get long dollar. all this means is you've got to tighten your belt or this blows up. ooit either way, i don't think you want to be there. it gives the markets a forestall period. this is good news. >> your take is interesting in the green room. you said it's basically defending the currency. >> absolutely. all they did today was defend the currency. if you watch "scar face" you bring a suitcase of cash and you make a deal, you have the suitcase of cash right there. i didn't see any suitcases today. today they were about defending the currency. i don't want the headline trade. i've been talking about this the last couple of nights. i don't want to have to worry where the euro is. in reality, that's what you're trading right now. liked the commodity performance today, so i went with a low beta-type of play.

shift away from the headline story right now. >> alcoa, low beta? >> alcoa is much better versus freeport mcmoran in terms of having to worry about what comes out of the ecb. >> and it's a double whammy as well as china when it comes to free fort mcmoran. >> we got cpi, ppi and housing prices last night. the ppi was actually negative and hot. the housing prices was negative and hot, but the cpi, what they really care about is social unrest, was less than expected. it keeps china on the sidelines for a couple of weeks. it's about having this trading window. china is going to have inflation problems all year. >> we have some developments about former president bill clinton. tiler? >> thank you very much. a statement from douglas band, who is a counselor to president clinton reads as follows, that today president clinton was admitted to the columbia campus of new york presbyterian.

he underwent a procedure to place two stents in one of his coronary arteries. he will continue to focus on the work of his foundation and he's in good spirits. as you recall in 2004, the president went to that same hospital and had a quadruple bypass to free four blocked arteries. he apparently had scheduled this visit for yesterday, but postponed, presumably because of the snowstorm. came in today, walked in under his own power. and so that's the latest report, with a statement from president clinton's associate, douglas band. back to you all. >> thank you very much, tyler ma matheson. what did you make of the market action today? >> it was nice to have the rally, but it seemed like the market had been oversold. nice to get a bounce in some of the things we owned like oil-related services. it shouldn't move dollar for dollar with oil, but they do seem to. so when they bounce, that's

nice. but i -- it seemed to me like the greece news was already out there in a few it rations so i'm not really sure what exactly is new today about that. i think it would be shocking if there were no bailout of some form. when and in what form, i don't know. but it seems like that news is already there. >> okay. we want to check our in box. from gary in memphis, gary, he writes -- guy, have you talked to debbie downer lately? if so, does debbie think these little jumps in the market we see every day or so are just a head fake or has the correction run its course? p.s., can you send me debbie's phone number? >> no, that's uncool. and yes, i talk to debbie often. i don't think the correction is over. it took a respite. it looked for the next couple of

weeks we'll probably have some clear sailing. at 1071 level, that's where we sort of traded either side of. you can use that as a pivot point. but i think the correction is still going to happen, but in the next couple of days, you might see some clear sailing. >> you saw our e-mail address. we do read all of those messages out there. our man brian kelly is manning it. and, you know, brian, there's a saying about pigs getting slaughtered, but somehow you see pigs getting slaughtered and you say buy? >> yeah, basically on the theme that you can't get just a little bit pregnant. now that the eu has said we're going to stand behind greece, whether it's the eu or imf, i don't care. but they've got to extend that to the other pigs. it's similar to what happened with the t.a.r.p. the t.a.r.p. in the u.s. took away the idea that the banks could default. same thing is going to happen here.

you're starting to see the risk premiums in the fixed areas come down. greeg bonds coming in. it hasn't happened in the equity area. this is how i'm playing it. first, i want to play a broad financial. ewp is the spain index etf. i brought along some pie charts here. if you look about it, 43% of the etf is in european financials. 23% is in banco estander. you can buy some national bank of greece, mbg. >> i think mbg is way oversold. i don't think anything great is happening to these markets in the short term. and first of all, i don't know where that t.a.r.p., in other words that metaphoric t.a.r.p. money is coming from. i think it's probably the imf and there's enormous strings attached. germany is going to be living in greece's living room. which means their economy is

going to be dead. so i don't think that's particularly stock friendly. i think it's euro negative and i think that's germany friendly. i would like to by siemens here, si. they're one of the biggest companies in the industrialized world, that's a company i would like to own. >> germany is going to be living in greece's bedroom. >> i said living room, but if you want to go bedroom, that's fine. >> anyways, let's get back on track here. germany is going to be in the living room of greece. that's exactly my point. if it was a bilateral bailout, germany -- german bounnds would become greek bonds. that's an extreme case. but if you've got germany backing greece, they should be the same country. >> doesn't this rally, though, already reflect that? aren't you sort of late to the party? a lot of things can still go wrong. things can trade a lot, lot

wider before the story plays out. >> right, but it hasn't been reflected in the equities. mbg, down at the lows. i think you have a good risk-reward place to get into this. certainly in the fixed income market you see this, but it hasn't been reflected in the equities yet. >> let's not call them pigs anymore. i think the nicer term is the club med economies. >> we'll see if that catches on. b.k., man with the iron stomach, willing to buy the club med stocks. >> thanks for the pie charts. make mess want to play "trivial pursuit." >> meantime, best trade of the day today, commodities shaking off earlier strength in the dollar. the trade, end of the downturn here, a lot of people were saying this is a technical bounce after being oversold, guy. >> look at freeport-mcmoran, we

had a bit of a reversal. made a low of 66.3. the high that day was 70.23. prior day's high was 68.99. what does that mean? big volume day that day if you recall. looked like the stock reversed. i know joe got back in. i won't get back in until it closes above 75.5. that doesn't mean it's right, but that's where we broke down from. although i think the commodity trade may be broken longer term, in the near term you're right at levels that are very interesting. >> last week was clearly a liquidation trade. fundamentally, the commodity trade is still sound. one of the reasons why, look at greece. what is greece really all about? how is it that greece grows its way out of this problem. how do they grow their economy to raise taxes and interest rates? they can't do it. that tells you how systemic it is for the rest of the developed world. where does it point to? the emerging world. that's where the demand is.

that's why the fundamentals of commodities are sound. before we move away, the ag trade, i believe is coming back. take a look at potash. take a look at mosaic, the last couple of days, performing very well. >> we're just ahead of a three-day weekend. we saw this covering short positions ahead of a three-day weekend, what are we expected to see in terms of friday's action, given that three-day weekend. >> i agree. i think it's a very long weekend. we talked about this. we have china's new year, carnival next week and holidays here. look at the fertilizers. they're short on potash supplies. forget all the activity going on, these things are going higher for fundamental reasons. so i think it's going to be a great time to get back into commodity names. even gold, gfi had great operating numbers a couple of days ago. they have the most production growth probably in the space. the rand had been weaker. this is where we love to buy stocks like this. and whether things are oversold or in the next leg of a

commodity move higher, there's a lot of move in this trade. >> i would expect the short covering in copper and cold and oil to continue tomorrow. there was that type of aggressive buying. >> so bid a bit higher snorm. >> >> absolutely. should see that again. >> the p.c. upgrade cycle, the sox finishing up today more than 2%. you've been sniffing around intel. >> hi, timmy, good to see you. we traded about 145 million shares. next day, about 1 6 0. we said now is the time to get out. it should trade down to 19. and guess what? i think it made a low of 18.95. a few days ago, it's bounced nicely since. point of reference for intel, but the more interesting trade is the one we brought to you, amazon. remember that traded down to 113.8. we flagged the volume that day, about 38 million shares.

i said i would have liked for it to trade 106. it didn't, but again, another point of reference. look at what amazon has done since then. then hewlett-packard reporting in a couple of weeks. february 17 after the bell, that should be good. that stock has been sold off enough where that might be interesting as well. >> intel real quick, guy is making a great point. this is one of the stocks, i don't think like amazon whose chart i believe is broken, intel has never broke. so intel today retook the 20. there's a number of these guys who actually look good. from a trading perspective, look at that chart, you've been sideways for four or five months but you have a 15% range in that chart. >> dell also comes out that week as well. the fundamentals of technology, they've always been in play. they're strong. at the beginning of this year, gary comiskey pointed out they're oversold. what should come back first? it should be the technology

names. r.i.m. has outperformed apple throughout the selloff. i think you could play r.i.m. from the long side here. >> let's head back to headquarters to our chart center. >> brian: does the technical analysis confirm the fundamental viewpoint here on the december snk. >> 150%. teches today were exploding. today confirmed this is a trader's market. we were watching apple today, the chart was coiled. we were watching 195 and it blasted off after it showed relative strength. i believe it closed around 199, and i do believe the path of least resistance is about 205. other tech stocks were going nuts. you look at joe, joe was looking at rimm, so were we. rimm blasted through 68. it didn't stop. the price action was there. it was just an unbelievable trade. trading was so busy, i couldn't leave my desk. i had a spin class and today the

teacher was looking for me. >> what did you say? >> you guys have to exercise to burn off some steam. >> a spin class? >> doi take a spin class a few times a week. your guys should try it. >> fantastic. i don't know what to say to that. >> don't say it, trust me pop i hear it's a good workout. >> a lot of stocks exploded today. i'll show you one. i've been watching google. karen, i know you love this story fundamentally. technically, if it can trade about 540, 542 with volume, this stock is the next to go. >> and what are you looking at on the down side that would be a technical signal to you. >> and would that be downward dog? >> at this point, i'm watching google 525 has been holding. you can nibble a lit bit in that support area. be in a tier one. but when it trades through that 540, 542 with volume, that's where i would add to the position. that's where i would look for momentum to take it probably back to be 550, 555 very short

term. >> all right, thanks for working that chart center for us back at e.c. >> i've got to get -- i have a field hockey game in a little while. so i mean, we've got to move. let's go. >> do you wear a sdmilt. >> can't hit it with the curve side. you have to hit it with the flat side. >> let's move on here. the root of the crisis here, eased as the etf jumping. karen, this is an area you actually like? >> i actually do. we see some good data, then we see some bad data. i think that's part of bottoming out process. i don't know. i think there are names that have the balance sheet to ride it out. i like it. i think it's a lower risk to play. >> karen has been very accurate on the home birlds and correct

throughout the year. theorizing. i'm looking at the other side of this trade, though. i want to play this from the short tied. i don't want to do xhb. i'll probably do a name like toll brothers. house prices themselves, yes, the decline has stopped but you're not seeing any recovery. you're not seeing any acceleration in prices. once the tax credit sex pyres june 30, what do we do then? and in addition to that, my concern is private sector borrowing costs as well. to me they're going to rise and that will hinder the housing trade. >> and hxb, not because it has the retailer, the home improvement retailers? >> yeah, probably look like a name like toll brothers. >> home depot performed well. morgan stanley made positive comments. we had an upgrade the other day. i like hd. frank blake, when is he come on the now? >> i don't know. that's an open invitation. >> he watches. >> in spin class.

>> i don't think he's doing that. >> probably not. >> spin? or watching "fast money." ? >> spin. just a guess. all right, kmom coming up next, we will head deep to the heart of texas, toque a hedge fund manager and see what kind of trades he's got under his ten gallon hat. all that and much more coming up on the show. the obama overhang. can he turn the market and his whole numbers around? plus will madison square garden may be going to the dogs, cablevision is doing anything but. after its split with msg this week, is it time to start watching cbc? and could the next best media play come from blockbuster? why the ceo of this dvd rental company could bring dollars back into the dying dvd. all that when america's post market show continues. whwhwhwhwh

welcome back to "fast money." the poster board for this week's bounce is caterpillar, it's up 10% in three days. >> it's also down 22% in two weeks. so you have to take things in context. it had a big move. this stock topped out on january 11 on huge volume.

it's basically got back half of that loss. about what it should do. i happen to think it will probably roll over again. >> evening we heard for the last couple of days, the three biggest miners in the world is they are doing more, they're exploring more. this is a cyclical acceleration. not just a structural transformation. there's real stuff going on and that's what we've seen. >> and the ism reflects that. as long as the ism moves towards 60, i think the industrial names should move from the long side. >> what's your favorite industrial-type stock? >> flow serve i guess would be my favorite. i'm a loyal girl. >> yes, you are. dr. j writes, i think the commodity trade is back to supply and demand, not dollar which was the tratde, now it's supply and demand. buy it. that's a strong endorsement from

dr. j. >> so he's saying demand is back? >> he's saying it's not just the pucks of the currency, it's demand underpinning the currency. >> supply, we have not grown our supply in oil. there was no incentives for any energy producers to increase production, to invest in new production in the infrastructure itself. supply is is a concern as well. >> if you're massey, console, cliff, you guys have real demand and that's why these sectors are boom popping. >> consol energy. >> what did i do? >> console. just fyi. >> thank you. >> what else you sghoot. >> let's move on here -- >> at least i'm not taking a spin class. our next guest is a houston hedge fund manager who thinks this might be a sucker's rally.

>> we had a 10% selloff very, very quickly. it's normal to see a nice bounce, but just because a chicken has wings doesn't mean it's going to fly. you've got a situation to where you've got a lot of things happening over the next couple of months that we think will cause this market to go sideways or sell off again. >> what's your trade? >> the number one we like is short commercial real estate. it's a train wreck coming. we see a tremendous amount of oversupply of $1.4 trillion of debt coming due in three years. nowhere to that money to be refinanced to that extent, and obviously a lot of new equity that's going to have to be placed there. that's going to put pressure on prices and that's going to put a lot of stress on the banks as well. we're short the etf to get a broad sector exposure pop it's karen. we've seen a lot of refinancings, both the debt and equity being able to be issued to really bail out some commercial real estate companies.

tons of it, billions of it. are there particular sectors you think won't be able to tap into the markets that seem to be open for them? >> well, i think the markets are open to an extent, but when you look at loan to values, as these projects were down at 75%, 80% ltv in '06, '07, now they're getting 65%, 70% ltvs and the value has dropped. so a massive amount of equity is going to have to flow back into the market. >> that's happened, though. we've seen that a lot. >> correct, we've seen it, but you're not going to be able to see it on all $1.4 trillion. that's going to lead to foreclosures, lead to prices coming down. it's going to lead to banks finally going, you know what, we don't have that much to be able to give. so the window is open right now, but as more and more comes to market for refinancing, it's not going to be open for everybody. >> chris real quick, what about earnings? earnings have been phenomenal this quarter. what about another quarter of quality earnings, can the market look past it again?

>> i don't think they can. the market is going to see good earnings, but if you look at the charts, the charts are showing you two things. number one, the uptrend is broken. that tells us people have changed into more of a sell the rally as opposed to buy the dips mentality. we see the quarterly numbers are good, but they're not good enough to hit the whispers and the expectations priced into these names right now. so these stocks are bouncing as they should, but they're going to -- investors are going to be disappointed when they don't get the blowout numbers that they're expecting. three things we have to focus on. psychology is number one. we already talked about that. earnings is number two, but don't forget the economic numbers. you've got a situation where in the next quarter or so, we're going to see the housing market, which i heard someone say right before the break, housing market is going to continue to weaken. people are losing patience, they know they've got to sell. that's going to cause things to sell off. and the other thing is jobs. we're not getting job growth. the four-week average dropped

1,000. everybody cheered that today, but the reality is there's no jobs coming and businesses are not prepared to add substantially. >> got it, christopher, thank you so much for your time. we appreciate it. christopher zook from texas. >> he paints a rosey picture, mel. >> he obviously has debbie downer's phone number, too. >> debbie does dallas. >> oh, karen. >> sorry. >> we're watching the casual dining stocks. a lot of them are out with earnings. cheesecake factory down 3%. buffalo wild wings, a favorite restaurant of our executive producer on this show, down about 14%. brian, what are you looking at here? >> well, i'm looking at this buffalo wild wings and they have just taken this thing out to the wood shed here. and they had good earnings. they just missed estimate mps they're talking 30% increase in 2010. i think it's just a case here of the stock -- the company missing

estimates. and here's the problem with some of these casual dining. you have to be sure that people are coming tlour your door. the way i'm going to play this is through cisco. syy. you probably saw it jaut outside of guy's favorite, olive garden. >> that was an italian knock. that's exactly what that was. i heard that, b.k. >> i like olive garden. i don't know. that's where i eat at night. i know, i've read where you eat. so let's move on to the stocks so people at home can get the stocks. cisco -- sysco is the largest food delivery service in the u.s. you've kind of got this safe earnings element. that's how i want to play this. >> buffalo wild wings, i think of that as a very, very crowded

short. there's a big short interest there. what do you think happens? is there a rush to cover? what happens -- you point out earnings weren't terrible. >> somewhere around 40, 41. looks like there's support here. as a trade, i think you could certainly buy it here. really to me, just reading the release, looks just like an earnings miss and that's it. >> all right, b.k., thanks for working the prop desk. we'll check in with you later on on the show coming up next, we have on tape guy calling the cable guy. we will explain and expose the story right after this. well, look who's here. it's ellen. hey, mayor white. how you doing? great. come on in. would you like to see our new police department? yeah, all right. this way. and here it is. completely networked. so, anything happening, suz? she's all good. oh, my gosh. is that my car? [ whirring ] [ female announcer ] the new community. see it. live it. share it.

on the human network. cisco.

>> you know what i'm when he canning out today? cablevision. you know who comes walking in? jim dolan. that jim dolan. i think they could get bout at some point. i think it's going to be higher by the end of the day. let's see if i'm right, folks. >> were you right? >> no. it closed at 22.50. msg spun off and i think they rang the bell, or rang the

close. jim dolan was here, i didn't go up to him. clyde frazier was here, i went up to him. he's the man. >> how about mess? mess is the man. >> honestly you know what i said to him? when are you going to take his job and pointed to glen sather. i think cablevision stock is cheap. i don't love the dolan family, but i love the company. >> maybe even the cablevision of russia, ctcm. this is a very interesting tv and cable company that has broadband, very little competition, beaten down. a couple of upgrades this week. >> i still think the earnings for disney was a game changer. the stock has traded phenomenally well since the earnings. opened lower that day. traded up above 0. loved the story going forward. the contribution to the ipad and the film studio this year,

"alice in wonderland" and "toy story 3." >> dennis gartman warned us last night the global growth names are making their recovery. but what about the financials? listen to senator corker and what he had to say earlier today pop i . >> i'm just one senator. i can't replace senator shelby, but i am steps forward as a republican senator saying this is a piece of legislation that needs to be passed. >> the question has got to be, is anyone going to commit fresh capital to the financials or to a lot of these companies if these companies simply don't know what the landscape is going to be? >> well, i have committed capital, and by continuing to own it, that's equivalent to committing fresh capital to it. i still think it's a lot of noise. it's similar to the health care reform.

those stocks really took it on the chin when that process started. but in the end, it wasn't -- even without the outcome that we saw. but as the process went through the motions, it wasn't as bad as the stocks were originally fearing. i think the same thing is going to happen here. and i don't know that there's the political capital to get something done that was as dramatic as there was to push health care reform forward at that time. >> at the same time, joe, you got a little defensive on your bac position. you sold some calls? why, because of the overhang? >> not really the overhang. the s&p outlook on bac, i did not like. i wanted to amp up position to j jpmorg jpmorgan. there are trades at work. jpmorgan, you have a great point of reference to play it from the long side. these are trades, folks, nothing else. >> i agree with joe agrees with me. i also have jpmorgan. >> some are bigger targets. wells fargo, i think, their business model is very much

inta intact. the cfo was talking the last couple of days, they already wrote down $49 billion of the $80 billion of wells fargo loans. it's an aggressive approach to their balance sheet. after repaying t.a.r.p. and a capital raise, some of these guys are in good shape. and they weren't the ones making huge money underlining cmbs. >> come on, he was "sports illustrated's" man of the year a couple years running. >> we're talking about scott -- >> there you go. >> not at spin class. at the chart center. are we seeing the confirmation? these guys think there's a trade in the financials. do you see that in the charts? >> we rallied today but it lacked punch. it's almost like watching joe do a spin class in his tutu.

we need goldman sachs to finally break out. goldman sachs trying to hold 150. resistance stands around 150, 154. if we could see a nice trade above that level and get back to 160 and get the 200-day back intact, we'll see movement in this market, see some punch. every time the market was ready to go, they were trying to buy financials and they weren't moving. they were just holding the market back. that goes with the mantra, you have to be at in the right place at the right time. that was tech, commodities, it wasn't financials. continue to watch goldman sachs. i think you can grab that for a fast actionable trade. >> i will say this, when i see guys walking out of the spin class in my gym, i usually do have my gloves on. a punch or two sometimes, it could happen. >> i never wore a tutu, i did wear a singlet. i wrestled back in the day. you know what i mean?

>> we better get out of here or someone is going to call you greg lamond again. >> i used to like greg lamond. i used to watch the tour de france. i mean, come on. tonight's question is, will financial reform lift the overhang on banking stocks in the market? l.a., by them. wall street wants clarity. b, sell. still won't take the tox is assets off the banks' books or c, hold. it will be a nonevent. cast your vote and let us know what you think. and of course, we continue to track all the after-hours action. the casual dining stocks getting pummeled in the after-hours session. we'll head back to b.k. and see what's going on there.

>> these guys have most of the market share in the country. only half of them are cable. it's a very small market cap. be careful, but it is a very interesting play. >> i thought this was an interesting one. retailers are increasing stock bibacks. provided retailers with the confidence to increase from children's place, american eagle and the buckle are most likely to buy back their shares. >> where is pete when we're talking -- >> pete, sorry buddy. >> i like children's place. it's still not attractive even though it's run a fair amount. they should buy back the stock at this level. >> they'll be fine with a cushion afterwards. m getting an upgrade. the company will continue to beat and raise guidance on the back of relative strength in the

end markets. i think this is a stock you recently got into. >> love the stock. i think the stock is going to 100. phenomenal diversification. office products, electronics, health care, industrials, communications, you name it, best diversified industrial out there. >> positive comments about a week ago. i don't think it get gets to 100, but i think it gets to the low 90s. >> on goldman's conviction buy list, i believe. >> want to head back to b.k. over at the prop desk. got more news on cheesecake factory, that developing story. >> i'm listening to the conference call. looks like they might have upped their guidance from 116 to 124. 1.16 to 1.24. street was about 1.1. it's kind of come back here after a close. i think if we can get it to 23, technically it looks pretty good pop that makes you feel good, doesn't it, karen?

>> i still think it's expensive. one is fattening and one is expensive. >> and one is rich. >> you could go to a spin class, though, and work that off. >> b.k., thanks a lot for your work there. up next, the ceo of a company who's seeing growth in what seems like an unlikely place. good old fashioned dvds. stay tuned. gendary. classic. iconic. but times change and people want better foods. so cargill helped a restaurant chain create... a zero trans fat cooking oil for their french fries... canola plants... and innovative processing techniques... while preserving their famous taste. because no one wants to give up a classic. this is how cargill works with customers. ♪

think it's r.i.p. for dvd? not so fast. cash machine co-losses so ncr has seen the future in flicks with self-service rentals expected to make up 30% of the market by year's end. so ncr is betting big on its blockbuster express boxes. but the main attraction -- digital down loading of the films you can't wait to watch, coming soon to a supermarket or mall near you. it's a business brought back to life, just like in the movies. any good trader isn't looking for the growth story of the day, they're looking around the

corner for the next hot story. here to tell us what is next, ncr ceo. good to see you. want to get to that aspect of the growth story, but first we want to ask you your core business. the analysts on the street peg asia to be double-digit growth in 2010. china is a big part of the story, so is india. when you hear about china tightening, how does it impact that forecast? >> let me tell you, first financial services stable. going fairly well. better than a year ago. retail, cautious on retail around the world. the growth market for the company is emerging markets. asia in particular, but also middle east, africa and for us, brazil. we just moved into brazil. we've got good opportunity in that space. eastern europe, as eastern europe improves. >> but back to the china question. when you hear about possible tightening in china, does that concern you when it comes to

your fwroet plans there? >> it doesn't. because the banks in china are you know, underpenetrated for atms. if you think about atms per million people in the u.s., there's about 1,400 to 1,500. in china, about 200. so as that population -- >> that also counts all the people in the country side who might not even have an atm card -- >> sure it is. it's also a cash environment. >> live with cash clai dday to . and recycling. there's a huge market for cash recycling. the number of notes you use is substantially higher than in the u.s. does it get to 1,400 in terms of density? i don't know. it's been a great business for ncr, a great market for us. >> switching gears to the dvd kiosk side of the business, this seems like it would be a growth area. you're going to lose on an operating basis $30 million, though. at what point do you expect that will be an operating profit?

>> 2011. so we're making investments -- the issue for us is the amount of capital we're spending in that space. it's very capital intensive, to build out the dvd network. the dvd kiosk network. the automated store, however, a little different than what you might see from our competitors. we're building out stores where you can rent dvds, down load digital content, including movies, as well as sell digital content in our units and do buy-sell trade of digital content. so for us, we're spending a lot of money up front on investing in the kiosks, that cap x drains a little bit of the profits early days -- >> you're in the food industry and a lot of different industries. you just tweaked guidance for 2010, which has me on the fence in the stock. maybe if you say something here, it will get me back on your side of the fence. >> in terms of the food business from a retail point of view?

>> sure. >> retail market weers still cautious on, to be very candid with you. look, they're a heck of a lot better than they were a year ago. you're beginning to see retailers in your last segment wanting to buy back stocks. so a signal they think they're undervalued or the markets may be returning. we're seeing comps get better and n retail. i'm not sensing yet that that's going to turn into technology spending in a robust way. now, we have easy comps to overcome on a year to year basis. we remain cautious. we'll see as the year goes on whether or not this opportunity unfolds to be a better one for the company throughout the year. >> bill, great to ospeak with you. good for coming on. national cash register once upon a time. my, how the business has changed. andy writes to us. coal stocks have surged the last few days, do you stee the trends continuing on the upside for these companies? tim seymour, coal stocks?

>> everything i've heard from earnings from all the major coal players and minors the last couple of days, metro steael, talking about cliffs. even volly who had terrible numbers today, it rallied. the demand to china is still incredible. >> and a lot of this is weather driven to that point. take a look at alpha natural resources. to china, asia and domestically with the weather, we're using a lot of it right now. >> and just to tie a ribbon around this whole thing, the blockbuster and the whoet ble b why don't you go out and rent "coal miner's daughter." and sissy spacek. you want to watch a good movie, you go watch that. that's just -- >> that's an amazing ribbon you just tied on the whole package.

would you buy ncr stock? >> yes. >> all right. we got a steel lay from tim in the "final trade."

time, final trade? >> more short covering to come in mt. buy steel. >> i was just messing with the red dog. he did a great job. i like ncr. >> karen? >> i like cyberonics. they just got approval in japan last month. should be good. >> i would expect the recovery to continue tomorrow. to that point, play the low beta trades. i'm playing it through alcoa. >> thanks so much for watching. see you tomorrow in the halftime report and back here tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. for more "fast money" right here on cnbc. have a great night.