butt. that's not part of the plan. >> yes. promote that. promote that. >> oh, that's a good shot. >> very nice. >> look at that shot. >> would you do another four? >> double or nothing? >> absolutely. >> what are we betting? >> we will erase the tape if i win. >> so the clear problem, guys, you didn't have sweepers. that was the big problem. >> you didn't have the sweepers. >> well, yeah, that was one technicality. i just want to make sure dennis and everyone knows the national association of integrity in editing is really angry at this piece. they want to make you well aware that i did defeat michelle. >> i got 15 seconds. what's with the helmet and what's with the hat? >> it's our last live shot from

vancouver. we decided -- >> whatever goes. >> wonderful job, guys. see you soon. it is 2:00 on wall street. snow blowers are at work in the new york, new jersey area where you're seeing that picture. traders right now treading water at the big board. it is 1:00. a much nicer place to be, mexico. 11:00 a.m. in vegas. bet you wish you were in one of those places. we've got news of an unexpected change for american consumers from both. you'll hear about it exclusively from the ceos. and it's 11:00 a.m. in california. toyotas are on these roads right now. we're a numbers and money channel. we'll lay out the facts about whether toyotas are safe. the actual facts may shock you. good afternoon. i'm erin burnett. we appreciate your spending part of your afternoon with us, rain,

snow or shine, whatever it may be. the weather on the east coast has done the usual, closing schools, made a mess of the roads and made the trading floor behind us a bit of a ghost town. it's been a big plow to many businesses across the mid-atlantic, which is sending a chill through the recovering economy. we've got this covered. we'll start with scott cohn in new jersey where he looks warm in his hat. >> we've got peacocks all over the place and a lot of snow all over the place in a community that has a lot of independent businesses. and also perhaps owing to the economy as well as everything else. a lot of empty storefronts. this snow has been yet another blow to them here. and the weather forecasts are playing some havoc with the broader economic forecast. consider the numbers from moodyseconomy.com. they are adjusting their forecast. and a lot of this they say is going to take some time to work through the economy. but they say that for example,

when nonfarm payrolls come out next week that the numbers will be down 75,000 jobs. they had been looking for a forecast of unchanged. the ism manufacturing index is going to show that manufacturing activity goes down a little bit. and even vehicle sales expected to go down as well. now they say at moody's economy.com that a lot of that is going to be temporary. some of the business just time shifted. but not temporary for everyone. the plaza convenience store here in downtown montclair where they are open for business, but it has been very, very tough. and these days, these snow days are days that they will never get back. >> very bad. very bad. very bad. and not like -- i tell you yesterday i -- half the business. today a haven't started it. >> but others are trying to make the best of things and yet this really creates some issues that are on top of so many other

issues for independent businesses. like at aunt jean's toys and treats where they are doing actually okay. they are going to try to sell some sleds to make up for the downturn in business with the snowstorm. but what they really could use is some credit. this is tough. the owner tells us that she'd like to hire some people but she needs to get a small business loan. >> my ultimate goal is to expand. right now i probably couldn't do it. i'm just hanging in here in regards to paying my rent and paying my manufacturers and paying my employees and maybe a little for me, that kind of thing. but i'd like to expand. >> she's been in business three years, which is quite a lot to say in this economy. she started -- she opened up her store in the midst of the economic downturn. but she can't remember the last time she's had a day off. this is one instance where the credit crunch and the crunch of the snow under foot are all coming together. erin? >> thank you very much, scott cohn. and the weather, scott

talking about the influence it's having on small businesses here. could be having an effect on the broader economy as well. steve liesman has been at the u.s. monetary policy, yes, here in snowy new york. and he's bringing a special guest into our conversation. mr. liesman. >> yeah, erin, thanks very much. joining us is the goldman sachs chief economist. jan, thanks for joining us. a lot of uncertainty in economics. it's been snowing outside. and it's been snowing a lot. and this affects the data. it also affects maybe what's going to happen with the recovery in coming months. what's your gauge of it? >> it is going to affect the data. it's going to affect next week's payroll performance jum bers. and it's going to affect the housing data and may already be one reason why the housing data has been as weak as it's been. >> how will it affect the payroll? have you been bringing down your numbers because of the weather we've had? >> so we don't have an estimate out yet, but we do think, you know, something like a

triple-digit number. just from the weather affect. of course, lots of other things going on is certainly very plausible. >> jan, you've been introducing a paper here. you and a bunch of academics and wall street analysts came together to do a forecast on economic conditions. one thing you find is that things are getting worse when it comes to financial conditions. why is that and what's the impact on the economy in coming months from that? >> essentially what we find is there was a big recovery from extreme distress in late '08 to about the middle of '09. since the middle of '09, things have sort of moved sideways, but if you adjust them for what normally happens during the business cycle, since you've had pretty strong growth in the second half last year, things have gotten worse. once you adjust for that. and that suggests that, you know, financial conditions, in particular, the shadow banking system, the weakness in the securitized market is still going to be a drag on the economy in 2010. >> erin? >> i'm just curious about a

couple of things. one is, what is your perspective on greece. many seem to say it's just greece or even if it's a couple other southern european countries it's not big enough to really matter. it's not the next subprime canary in the coal mine. do you agree? >> i do agree. i do agree with that point. i would say, though, that what you have in the european monetary union is that the -- you know, the discussion of the 1990s of the delft of adjusting to asymmetric shock in the common currency area when you don't have a lot of labor mobility and you don't have a lot of fiscal transfer, that that was right. and i think that's going to continue to cause problems in those parts of the euro zone being hit by a much bigger shock. >> a lot of people sort of position it that if they -- >> i do think that's a big issue. >> if the euro goes away, that would sort of be an armageddon. if it were to go away it would

wreak havoc on the global economy, not just on the currency market. do you think that the euro in and of itself is that significant? >> oh, i think that would be a very, very big deal, but i think the probability of the euro going away is very low. so i mean, i think the political commitment to the european project is very, very high. despite the economic issues that they currently face. >> jan, you have a very dubbish work forecast. >> it's hard to say the earliest. our forecast is that they don't tighten this year and they don't even tighten next year. i can't say i'm super confident about 2011. that's a long time away, but our best guest is at least in terms of rate policy in terms of federal funds policy, we're in for a very long period of extremely low. >> so going along with that you

have to see low inflation and low -- and high unemployment for a long time to come? >> basically, the unemployment rate going sideways to higher over the next year still. essentially because in our forecast, growth is only about 2% fourth quarter to fourth quarter this year. that's below the long-term trend of the u.s. economy. and inflation, we think, is going to continue to follow. >> thanks, jan, for your help. erin? >> let's get straight to the trading floors. looks like everyone -- not everyone, but many people took a snow day. brian schactman, i've heard stories of true heroism in people getting to work. >> i am shocked how many people made it in. the trading -- it's been pretty muted. it's been in a wicked tight range here. we're up about 12 points. a weaker dollar propping it up a little. financials, health care, weakness, utility, consumer staples. we have kraft, walgreen, molson

coors. the sector hith 52-week high and a couple of names in the space hitting new highs as well. nike, we also have black and deck decker and big lots. on the other side of that equation, again, the s&p 500. the two weakest names, flur and aig. we talked about aig swinging to a loss. elements worked in where they might need more government help. so that's obviously a head wind. and fluor profits down 22% year over year. both of those talking about how the u.s. isn't in a total recovery mode. i want to end. thomas h. lee buying cke restaurants, carl's jr. and hardee's for $11.05. the entire day almost trading above that. the street thinks a higher bid will come in. >> thank you. next on the show, while we're dreaming of warm, sunny beaches and frosty umbrella drinks, at least someone on our show i know has been doing so

passionately today. some people somewhere making money off this nasty miserable weather. three ways to play the snow business next. and here are the really important questions. what is more dangerous. getting behind the wheel of a recalled toyota or walking one mile down any old street in america? we'll talk about whether the risk is worth the massive recall. boss:hey, glad i caught you. i was on my way to present ideas about all the discounts we're offering. i've got some catchphrases that'll make these savings even more memorable. gecko: all right... gecko: good driver discounts. now that's the stuff...? boss: how 'bout this? gecko: ...they're the bee's knees? boss: or this? gecko: sir, how 'bout just "fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance." boss: ha, yeah, good luck with that catching on! anncr: geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

♪ summer wind came blowing in from across the sea ♪ >> does that make you feel cheery or that we're sort of masochistic to play that while looking at that? nothing further from the summer wind has been blowing here in the northeast. there are ways for investors to cash in on this nasty blizzard. we have our storm team in place. aaron studwell from research and annual littics with weather research, a firm that helps traders better understand what weather does to commodity prices. and jimmy orio. we're going to begin with our -- you would make a rather large and lovely snow angel. >> oh, yeah. >> i say that with great affection. >> can i say old blue eyes fled hoboeken and lived most of his professional adult life in california. just saying.

we're talking snowbirds here. i cut it up into themes. what's the first thing we do when we see the big storm coming weeks ahead? we stock up and get ready to eat some food. a lot of these counter cyclical trends in a market that's seen eight of ten sectors down this week. home depot and lowe's both strong on the week. check out the performance. both positive on a week that will see the dow and s&p probably finishing down somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.5%. also, look at some of the food retailers. interestingly, if you look at whole foods, very strong week here. and the same thing for safeway. interest thing about safeway. the majority of their stores are away from the east coast. they have a few, but nothing like some of their competitors. number two, we hunker down at home or we just say the heck with it and do what sinatra did and then we flee. look at newscorp, netflix. watch tv, dvds. both with a pretty strong week. interestingly, for whatever

reason, newscorp is not clicking in on the computer today. we halted them thursday for whatever reason. they are doing better than norm. carnival cruise lines with 5% move over the week. they are doing so well they actually announced they'll raise their prices so carnival you can see a little bump today. that big move coming on tuesday when they came out with information. people want to get the heck out of here. and those option number three, or theme three would be we play. we don't fight the weather. we embrace it. now what could be the more perfect product mix for a snowy week than k2, crock pot and mr. coffee. that is jarden corporation. they own all of those and dozens more. very strong week for them. the darling of the small caps. look at arctic cat. the one month showed you 20%. arctic cat. back to you.

>> all right. i like that. arctic cat. acat, right? still independent. thanks very much, mr. nesto. and now matt has given you some ideas. let's bring in aaron studwell and jim aorio, director of tjm institutionals. aaron, let me start with you. we were joking this morning. why is it that every time it snows, even in the same year, everyone has to go out and buy another snow blower or snow shovel. where did you put the first one, and yet it happens. >> i have a lot of friends back east. we're down in houston. everybody i talk to back east, they're out of snow blowers. they just can't find any. so it's been real tough for people out there. so we're looking at brigs and stratton, the largest manufacturer of small gas-powered engines. simplicity is the leader brand of snowblowers. there's such demand out east it's incredible. it really is amazing out there what kind of season you've had. >> brigs and stratton shares up.

a name like that. you think it can move on blowers like we're seeing in this picture? that matters for them? >> i think it does. i think maybe more hype over substance. and when we get to the end of the -- right now we're at the end of the quarterly earnings period. so we'll see those numbers come out. i think we'll see a significant bump in this sector compared to last season. >> what about you, do you have an idea? >> my inclination when we talk about the names that move sharply because of severe weather, usually take the other side of that. the market is kind of like the media. tends to overblow things. i know it's severe weather, but it happens. but one thing i think that's important is that if a name is drawn on to the radar screen because of the weather, now then under the bright lights we have to decide whether that passes or fails on its own merits aside of the weather. i'm looking at the vanguard natural gas. it's involved in acquisition exploration, natural gas. the natural gas price itself has been trending lower since june of '08.

every time i've tried -- sometimes it defies logic. every time i try play that and think it's going to go up, i've worn the scars of that trade. this vangard fund, i believe heats the majority of the houses in this country. the vanguard fund has been doing well. it yield 8.8%. the reason that's significant is over the last few days, the long end of the interest rate curve, rates have been going down a little bit. that happens for a few days in a row. people start talking about dividends because they want to pult money to work. you get the weather play because it is natural gas and the strong dividend play that involves the compressing of long-term rates. >> all right. thanks very much. appreciate both of you being with us. aaron and jim. >> thank you. >> interesting ideas. always ways to make money on it. here's a riddle. just ahead we'll answer this question. what has a higher risk of debat. getting a chest x-ray, getting struck by lightning or driving a recalled toyota? the answer is next. national car rental knows i'm picky.

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with all the talk of toyota's dangerous gas pedal problems stherks risk really worth the recall of nearly 10 million vehicles? now there have been, according to congress, 39 deaths attributed to sudden acceleration in toyotas over the period of the past decade. we asked transportation secretary ray lahood earlier this week about it. >> we get 30,000 complaints a year. we look at them very carefully. we really -- we don't set any aside. we take them seriously. and when we think there's enough of an issue, we really begin the review and ultimately can turn into an investigation and ultimately turns into a recall. in the last three years, we've recalled 23 million automobiles in america. >> no doubt they do. but what i'm getting at is are you recalling too many vehicles relative to the safety threat for most drivers? >> absolutely not. >> is he right?

here now is paul, professor of engineering and public policy. professor fishbeck, pleased to have you with us. what do you think about what the transportation secretary said. i said is the risk worth the recall. he said absolutely. you say perhaps not. >> well, i don't quite say that. decisions about when is something too risky is something that has to be made by society. what i deal with calculates the rink and provide that information for people to make informed decisions. >> so you don't want to go so far as to say not because it's a social decision. let's take it to the numbers. people can make their own decision. we're talking about 39 deaths. this is reported by congress, over the past decade. you have taken a very close look at recalled vehicles, in particular, toyotas, versus other risks. could you explain a few of them? we mentioned lightning, walking down the street and some others. >> yeah. so if you just look at the risk of driving, in the toyotas that

are being recalled, approximately 300 people die per year just because of other causes. an additional five or six would be added to that list. so 305. that increases -- that increase is about 2 in 1 million. so the chance 26 in 1 million of dying because you were driving a recalled toyota is equivalent to motorcycling six miles or walking ten miles. >> or walking ten miles. and what was the -- or chest x-ray. that was something else. there's more risk -- radiation risk there i would suppose, than risk from dying there? >> yeah, so getting a couple of chest x-rays is another equivalent to a 2 in a 1 million chance of dying. >> so let me put the question to you. if you had a recalled toyota, would you be worried? >> well, i would certainly get it fixed, but would i stop driving? no. would i drive any differently? no. the brake works pretty well still, even with the

acceleration, so just be aware of what the possible problems are. but a 2 in 1 million chance of dying is very, very small. >> we have a screen up right now. working as a police officer for 2 1/2 days is riskier. parachuting is riskier. what is it about society where something like this can turn into such a giant storm that the link between risk and the reality of that -- our perception of risk and the reality of that risk is completely off. it's the same way people treat flying. >> well, equivalent to driving toyota for a year would be flying cross-country one time. but what happens, i think, for toyota is they did not get out in front of the problem. they didn't calculate the risk. i don't know anyone who has talked about the risk as of now. until my calculation. but that is sort of the relevant sort of discussion point. how do you make an informed decision? first you have to calculate the risk. and it hasn't been done in this case until now. >> but it's interesting, too. when you are saying 300 people per year that drive these vehicles per year are dying from

something else, whether it's their own fault or someone else's fault for poor driving and your only adding five or six deaths as a result of that. you might almost be able to break down those other deaths and say the accelerator problem is not the thing we should be focusing on in this society. there's something else. >> there's certainly no question that drunk driving is a major, major, major problem. and, you know if you are using your cell phone while you are driving, you are incurring greater risk than driving a recalled toyota. >> do you think, though, and this is a final question. it's so distasteful. the pinto had even fewer deaths than the toyota. and the recalled toyota vehicles have had. yet the pinto made the career of mr. riesch. so do you think it is fair to say you run a -- is it worth on the money basis, recalling all of these card when you look at how many lives you'll save and say it's fair, not callous? >> that decision is something that individuals or politicians have to make. knowing the numbers and making

informed decisionses is the way to get around that. >> thank you very much. obviously some tough ethical questions here. certainly the numbers are fascinating. we appreciate it, mr. fischbeck. also let us know what you think. do you thing risk of driving toyota is worth the cost of the recall? let us know. there's money. there's ethics. next, dreaming of a getaway? if you think there's a luxury resort with your name on it, you may be in for a little bit of sticker shock. hotel bills are up more than 50%. spa treatments have surged. an exclusive look at what's sparking this oasis of consumer confidence.

i'm sharon epperson. oil may be posting his best monthly gain in nine months. oil prices here are up over $1. off the highs of the session. we hit $80 a barrel yet again this week. it's about the third time this week. but unable to close above that mark, it appears. still looking at the gains we've

seen. not only in oil but in gasoline this month, as well as copper prices. we're looking at the goldman sachs commodity index far outpacing what we've seen in the s&p 500. when you look at the dollar, so much talk about the dollar and its impact on commodities. the dollar oil correlation seems to have broken down in the past week. the story has been about equities and about some of the economic indicators. in the week ahead look for oil prices likely to continue to trade in that range, $70 to $80. that's what we've been stuck in since october. >> thank you, sharon. now an exclusive look at whether our economy is getting better. really better. this morning we found out consumer spending got weaker, despite the jump in economic output. consumers make up three quarters of our economy. the facts are simple. there is no robust american economy without consumers spending more money. and today we have two exclusive interviews with ceos who know what's really going on. and have some surprising things to say. in las vegas, the ceo of las

vegas sands and from chicago, the ceo of strategic hotels. we -- good to have both of you with us. let's begin with you, mr. adelson. we appreciate your taking the time. i'm very curious as to just your overall view. i know you are opening casinos around the world in singapore. you are right in the center of, i guess ground zero of whether america is recovering. what do you see in las vegas? >> well, what i see, vegas is a barometer of the health of the economy. it is true that after president obama belittled las vegas and said people shouldn't come here. they should save money to send their kids to college, i suppose that includes him. so he came here anyway . i see it picking up. there's never been a straight line of expansion that when -- that continue forever. and there's never been a line of

contraction on a chart that went forever. the economy goes up and down, up and down. and it's cyclical. it's only a matter of when things are going to come back. right now our convention bookings are coming out in force. they are actually coming out of the woodwork and more and more conventions because las vegas is the greatest bargain for convention and it has the convention, exhibition infrastruct purp we're getting more and more bookings. so convention bookings are out in force. compared to a year ago, and i know mr. geller will have thoughts on this in a moment when he's on. compared to a year ago, what are you seeing? your seeing a doubling? your seeing more? is it even comparable to how bad it was? >> a year ago was in the dumper. let me say. but two years ago, i would say go back to '88 before the crisis started in september. i would say it's back to that

level and i think by 2011 it will be back to the '07 level which was a very good level. >> wow. that's -- i must say that's the first time i've heard someone say we'll be back to 2007 levels in anything. >> in 2011. i don't know if we start on january 1st or whether or not it builds up to that by the first or second quarters. but through 2011 we'll see a substantial increase in bookings. >> and what about your company? the casino industry has been hard hit. you've been trying to expand during this. your now through it? >> we're through it. we're sit with $5 billion unrestricted cash on our balance sheet. we took our subsidiary company sands china limited and all our properties in macao, we took that public. and 60 days from today, we're opening up singapore, which we think actually for singapore, we're recalculating our numbers based upon the other half of the

duopoly having opened already about ten days ago or ten days and two weeks ago. and we're redoing our numbers on the up side based upon what they've done so far. it's still a little too early because there have been weekends and holidays, but based upon what we see, i think it's going to be substantially better than our other properties in asia. >> for you around the world, what do you think will be the gaming capital? will be it macao, a singapore? or will it remain america's las vegas? >> well, the gaming capital, by far, we're running at an 18 to $20 billion run rate in macao. i don't see how any other destination could usurp that from macao because macao is on the border of 1.3 million chinese who see gaming as the most dominant form of entertainment, as well as the other asians. the koreans, japanese,

taiwanese. the thais, singaporeans, jakarta, even india. there are a lot of countries out there that have an awful lot of chinese and even indians like to play. so if you see gaming is a form of entertainment, and not a serious form of trying to beat the house as the chinese people try to do, they see it as a form of entertainment, then i think it's going to go well. by the way, you should know that in our properties here, we have the largest hotel in the world, the venetian palazzo complex. it's the largest building in the world. three times the size of the pentagon. it's 18.5 million square feet where the pentagon is about 6 million square feet. but i just want you to say -- i just want you to know that we change the paradigm in las vegas. we no longer are so casino centric. we are nongaming centric. our casino only contributes about 30%, 35% to the bottom

line. and we hope that will be the case everywhere. but the casino represents only 1% of the total amount of build space in las vegas. 1%. in macao, we have the largest casino in the world in terms of square footage and gaming positions. takes up only 4.5% of the total amount of space. and when we finish the strip there it will be a mini las vegas. it will be asia's las vegas. we'll have 2%, 2.5% of the total amount of build space in macao. >> all right. >> so it's not totally -- it's not a casino. we build and specialize in convention-based integrated resorts. >> all right. well, mr. adelson, thanks for joining us. and now we want to bring in lawrence geller of strategic hotels and resorts. and we appreciate your being with us, mr. geller. thank you. and now as you heard mr. adelson talking about a lot of things in

the gaming industry. he thinks we can see gaming back to '07 levels next year which, like i said, i haven't heard anything going back to that, specifically, housing prices. he also said a lot of convention bookings were back to where he was, precrisis. what are you seeing on that front? >> well, i don't -- we're in a different business to sheldon. sheldon certainly has made the mold and broken the -- developed the paradigm issue. but for us, we're seeing -- it's not universal. we're seeing very good signs. the meetings business certainly is coming back. for example, this year, our business amongst our portfolio of hotels, we are double the amount of business for this book -- from the beginning of the year until now for this year than last year. so that's an amazing statistic. we're seeing generally this throughout our portfolio. and i think when we oar what i

can say is when i look around at our colleagues, the pricing levels generally consumer confidence coming back, gdp improving, where it's going to be a slow journey back where that's why i don't think i can -- i'm bold enough to predict sheldon did 2007 returns. but in some cases, we'll see many of the metrics of 2007 and the best indicator is a gradual, gradual improvement at the high end where luxury was a dirty word for the last 12 months and we're seeing it coming back very strongly. perhaps the reason is we've had so many price adjustments in the last year that people now see it as great value and they can now consume without being accused of conspicuous consumption. >> let me ask you a question on that front in particular. you are looking at average daily room rates. over the holiday season you were able to post a nearly 20%

increase over that basis at your four seasons in mexico, which is a big high-end destination. but when you look at that room rate of $1,428 a night, up 18% from a year ago, what is it versus where you were at the peak? >> close. very close. >> it is pretty close. >> it is very close on that time. erin, we're -- when you've got peak days at any event or any business, you can get peak pricing. it's what happens around the peak pricing that's the challenge. so whereas you can get 100% of two years ago now for ten days, you have to struggle the other 300 odd days to make it up. but you mention the $1428 room rate. that's interesting. but what's very pleasing to me is not just the room rate. our customers were spending an average of $1250 a day, up again

20-odd percent for nonrooms business. the food, beverage, toys on the beach, the spa. so these things, it's very, very good sign that there is a degree of confidence coming back in. and it's traditional that i've seen over my history that that confidence creeps back at the high end so the high-end consumers who were nervous, wary, didn't want to be seen to be spending, or just were frightened, that seems to have gone and they are bored with being frightened. and the spending is back. >> all right. well, we'll leave it on that note, and we'll take that as optimistic. a lot of people watching are probably very angry and depressed because they don't want the room rates going up. but it comes with an economic recovery and that's probably worth it. lawrence geller. bonds about to march into their worst two months of the year. our friend jim bianco will tell you how to best position your portfolio for march madness. and all of these.

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welcome back to "street signs." rick santelli here. as you look at these one-month charts of 2s and 10s, we're basically at the lowest yields in about three years for both two-year and ten-year. if you look at the difference, taking away two-year note yields from ten dwleerks note curve, it's gone from historically wide, over 294 intraday basis points just a week ago to a 4 1/2-week narrow under 280. now there was big news out of freddie. remember when the gses used to be the 800-pound gorilla in the kitchen? now 800-pound zombie and they are sitting in a coffin. nonetheless, their head guy this morning said, that's it. we are not going to securitize or purchase any more interest-only loans. now this comes after how many months of a lapse since the criseis? they have $24 billion in delinquencies in this category.

it represents 7% of their portfolio. and out of that, 20% are over 90 days delinquent. the traders on the floor had one question. wow. what took so long. erin, back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. bond investors. and that means everybody around rick beware. monday is march 1st. it's a terrifying thing for the bond market. historically, the next two months are among the worst for bonds. so how do you make money in march and april? joining us, jim bianco, bianco research periresident. this is the stuff you can do. march is not going to be so great for bond investors, huh? >> there's a seasonality in the bontd market. in the stock market we like to talk about the january effect or the santa claus rally or sell in may and go away. but there's also equal season in open bond. in march and april are the two worst months of the year. and it gets better in the summer. but right now if you were looking at seasonal factors, this is about as bad as it gets.

>> i want to know how bad is bad. first of all, how bad is bad? >> well, they are the, you know if you measure them by months, as you show on this chart here, march and april are the worst two months that you have for the year. you actually have seen the market actually lose money if you are a bond investor on a total return basis during those months. now that doesn't mean every march, april you wind up losing money. sometimes they can be just the worst relative to the rest of the year as well. and it also goes also that corporate bonds also do poorly as well during that period. but that's more february/march. we're kind november the mof in that. >> you showed the chart of the government bonds. march and april are clearly the worst with negative returns. now why is that? it is interesting. it has to do with a very -- a day everybody knows about in april. >> yeah, when you talk about seasonality, sometimes it's hard to decide what it is. everybody knows about the january effect but we're not 100% why it's happening in small

cap stocks. here i think it's a case of april 15th that we're in the period now, late february, march, april, where most people file their tax returns that get refunds. the government is now sending money out the door. seasonally, over time, over history, the borrowing side of treasury have gone up during this period. when you get into april and may and june, usually people that owe money don't usually send it in until april 14th or 15th. and then the kofers of the treasury start to fill up into april and may. seasonal borrowings go down and the bond market seems to do better. that's probably the most reasonable explanation as to why this happened. >> it's interesting. it's often people think oh, it's the bond market. it must be some complex thing. it comes down to taxes. now if people are feeling a little bit bad because obviously when people are worried about what's going on in the economy and with greece and the sort of sideways trend for stocks, a lot of people have been looking at bonds. if you're telling them this is a bad time to get into bonds, you have good news in terms of where you would put money.

>> if we stick with seasonal factors, good seasonal factors are in the stock market. especially in small cap stocks. we all know this phrase, sell in may and go away. well, between now and may, march 1st to may, the seasonal factors in the stock market are pretty good. and, in fact in small cap stocks, april and may are some of the better ones we've seen the year outside the anomalous january affect which you can see that big spike. that's january. beyond that it's pretty good until about april or may. stocks are the place to be. that again reverses sometime in the summer. for now, they are all systems go at least for them in seasonality. >> stocks are the place to be. from the man who knows bonds the best. jim bianca, thanks so much. next on the show, who is taking home the marketing gold for vancouver?

>> reporter: welcome back to "street signs." i'm lick fldiana olick in washi. prices remaining flat year over year. realtors continue to blame a dropoff after the fall surge from the first-time home buyer tax credit. they admit, though, it's not a good sign. the fdic may test a principle reduction program for underwater borrowers as long as certain rekwiefrmts are met, only for loans of failed banked seized by the fdic which holds less than 1% of the nation's mortgages. the trial program could be launched later this year. and billionaire hedge fund manager john paulson is betting to land in colorado, arizona.

check back with the realty checkup next monday morning at 11:50. until then go to the blog, realtycheck.cnbc.com. >> thank you, diana. and after two weeks, who are the marketing winners and losers from the olympics? cnbc's darren rovell still in vancouver to tell us why. >> reporter: erin, yeah, many of those hyped athletes came through, which is good because the marketing window is so small for them. let's start with the winners. shaun white the snowboard king. $8 million a year. he pulls in. and obviously defends his gold in the halfpipe. that should continue on the marketing front for shaun white. how about kim yu-na the skater from south korea who the country's most glorified star continued her dominance by winning gold by a wide margin in women's figure skating. apollo anton ohno comes in as a winner. although he's likely to hang up his skates after this one we expect a lot his deals with the likes of coca-cola and nestle to

stay intact. now let's talk some losers. she's still among the most remarkable way gold and bronze and what an event to go but if lindsay vonn lifted up to lofty expectations she'll be hot now likely for deals but not able to cash in on new ones as much. lindsey jacobellis wiped out her last run here. she took the silver in torino and did not even make the final this time. she's not going to be considered next time around. and how about alpine skier ted ligetyreported $2 million in deals with ralph lauren. the torino gold medalist hasn't made the podium here while 2006 busts bode miller of course has a medal of every color. erin, often it's not gold if you don't have gold then you're gone in terms of the marketing world, but the woman joannie rochette of canada, she won a bronze medal, and she could do pretty

well on the speaking tour around here, her mother of course died just a couple of days ago. and for more check out my blog sportsbiz.cnbc.com, we have the 25-most remarkable olympian, erin? somehow thank you very much to darren. and next you've been e-mailing us, a lot of e-mails, about your thoughts on toyota. risk versus recall. we'll have them in a moment after your "trend of the day." boss: y'know, geico opened its doors back in 1936

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