tv Fast Money CNBC March 26, 2010 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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112 meals free. call or click now. get back in the game. planning on catching a movie this weekend? well, chances are it's going to cost you more than ever before. the success of "avatar" and "alice in wonderland" has theater chains thinking consumers are willing to pay more for 3-d titles, and now they're cashing in on it. new prices take effect today at many major theaters, including regal, cinemark, and amc and it could see the cost of those 3-d tickets jump by 26%. some locations also raising rates on conventional movie tickets. the move comes on the back of a record-setting year at the box office, with revenue passing $10
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billion for the first time ever. that does it for us on "the closing bell." have a great weekend. "fast money" is up next. see you monday. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is "fast money." the meltup continues. pete, how are you riding this bull market that just won't die but won't really charge ahead? >> well, when you really look at the whole week, though, we really did have a strong week. you look at the s&p 500 for the week, it was pretty strong. you look at the volatility index, yes, that was coming in throughout the week. we did get that fear factor yesterday. we had a little bit of an extension on that today and then we started to pull off the end of the day. i think the one thing you've got to hang your hat on is great performance from the financials. the xlf is finishing right off the highs. you look at bank of america, you look at citi, jpmorgan, strong across the board. investment banks not so much. but i think you do have to focus on the fact there wasn't the kind of panic in the market that you'd almost look for when you're -- everybody's talking
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10% correction, some kind of correction. we're at 1180. we finish up just underneath 1170. seems like a pretty solid week. >> i'm going to do a quick time out because the folks at home are probably wondering who is that to her left? this is of course anthony scaramucci of skybridge capital. he is now a cnbc "fast money" contributor. so welcome. welcome to the show. >> welcome, anthony. >> thanks, guys. thanks for having me. >> you've earned a nickname. >> yeah. i was on the satellite. now i'm on the desk. >> exactly. >> feeling pretty good. >> now we can call anthony the hedge. >> the hedge? >> does that mean i can play with bono? oh, no, wait, you've got an h in front of the edge. sorry. >> this is not a comedy show, anthony. >> let's get back to the markets. anthony -- >> go ahead. >> how did the quarter end next wednesday impact what happened today, or is this a meltup sort of into the end of the quarter? because for many people out there today may be their last trading day.
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>> i think what's going to happen is people are now looking at some of the laggards. i definitely think there's a continued meltup. look at what the mutual funds do all the time. they press the accelerator toward the end of the quarter. and i'm looking at monsanto right now. monsanto's down 13% for the year. most of the analysts have a 92 price target. the stock went out at 71.10. monsanto's an ag play. it's lagging. commodities are probably going to pick up with the economic recovery. and you're going to see continued meltup, and i like the name monsanto. >> i agree with that one, actually. in fact, it's been dead money since august of 2008. in fact, it's one of the best companies in the fertilizer space. they were getting killed because roundup sales were not that big -- >> why wouldn't it be dead money now? if it's been dead money for so long. >> my argument on fertilizer and ag is you're actually starting to see the spending despite the fact -- look at the deluge, how far down, joe's been watching soy, wheat, corn these things have been get crushed, the fertilizer names have been hanging in because supplies are tight. after a year and a half of delaying planting these guys
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have no choice and the crop, the bounty crop was not there. monsanto, though, is one of the best in breed. if you like monsanto, look at their version of -- it's kind of like when you go to the drugstore, joe and you buy your skin bracer. you like skin bracer, you can also buy paco? well, we've got syt, which is its version in europe. >> two big catalysts for the name. they're in everything. >> it's definitely a story i think continues, and we talked about the m&a in the -- and clearly joe doesn't think i'm very funny today. >> it's not a comedy show. let's stick to the facts. >> let's actually stick to what's going on right now, and i'm going to bring my friend, pedro, over there, into this conversation. >> you wear skin bracer too? >> no. i'm going to say pedro, three-time defensive player of the year at minnesota, right? >> a long time ago. >> only player to do that. why? because pete knew where the play was going. that's what made you such a good linebacker. true? where is the play going right now in the market? what you saw in yesterday's
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price action was a change in momentum. this market has been melting up on short squeeze. right now the xly, consumer discretionary. best performing sector, xlf, the financials performing well also. because you have an acknowledgment that the economic recovery's not a u, it looks like a v. i believe the momentum has shifted. i believe the up side is limited. i'm stepping in. i'm selling the airlines. i'm adding to my goldman sachs short. i'm playing now for not a deep dive but a little bit of a pullback. >> to joe's point, we talked about this earlier in the week as well, we looked at retail names, even the casino names, even today in a relatively rough tape we've had activity in las vegas sands throughout the week. luke at some of the volumes, options, the stock. you look at mgm. you're talking about some pretty large short interest in a lot of these names. the retail names as well. it gives you a little sense of what you're talking about. the meltup. the only problem i see is as people chase, as you were pointing out, into the end of the quarter and mutual fund monday around the quarter as well, why won't these continue
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to get that kind of oomph to the up side? >> i want to ask anthony a question, the hedge a question before we get to that. i do want to hit the chart of the day because when we're talking about a meltup, this really shows it. right now we're seeing a 31-day streak in the s&p 500 without more than a 1% decline. that's the longest period without a pullback in this market. so clearly, this is the graphical representation of the meltup that we have seen. anthony, what happens once the quarter ends? >> you had the earthquake in september or october of 2008 and now you're having to rebuild as it relates to stability, lower volatility, and you're also seeing something which is a slight pickup in consumer activity. if you get wage growth plus consumer activity, this is a total home run for stocks, and the mutual fund companies know that. the hedge fund guys know that. they're getting nervous. that's why you're seeing all the short covering. so we've got to be very careful here on the short side. we were talking about airlines and oil earlier before the show started. oil's going up, airlines are going up.
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>> where is that job growth, anthony? that's the problem. if you look at the number that came out today, it was -- >> the job break, the job break in the economy is the uncertainty related to taxation and the uncertainty related to the health care policy of the united states government. as those clouds start to clear, small business owners, which drive job growth, they're the people that are going to pick up people. we just have to figure out what our costs are, and that's starting to happen now. a lot of positives in the air. >> let's look forward to next week. you're going to get a jobs report. a jobs report that now i think the market has priced in a number well north of 200,000 in terms of job creation. so the catalyst going forward is going to be what? again, i'm not suggesting that there's a deep dive in the marketplace coming. what i am saying is the capitulation, the short squeeze, the reach that you're talking about by mutual funds. reaching for the laggards. that happens. that has tended to happen. and it is running out of steam. the quality participation in the
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market, why quality names is not really there. >> we talked about how you can't really short and make money in this meltup that we've seen so far. let's go to b.k. b.k., we were watching commodity names move higher today and off a strong dollar you were actually short some stocks. which stocks are they and can you actually make money in these shorts? we've just said there's a short squeeze going on. >> sure. there is certainly a short squeeze going on in a lot of these names but not necessarily names like alcoa or ach. those are two i'm short. freeport-mcmoran, mcx. and a little shake and bake with joe on goldman sachs. i'm short that one as well. i do think that you're talking about a market here that is extended. people have been reaching. it's the end of the quarter. so now you've got to ask yourself, where is the next catalyst? what is it going to be? i think the job number is priced in as well. >> it's funny. you talk about copper. because b.k., i actually think copper's breaking out. and we've been dancing around this 345, 349. if you break through that resistance you've got room to
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start to test. again we're going back to october 2008. names i like are actually some guys that haven't really rallied. if you look in canada, you're looking at ivanhoe mines, fordescue. these are -- >> is it a 5% market correction, brian? is it a 10% market correction? or is it a temporary pullback on the road to 11,000? that's what i want to know. >> right. so here i think is the key. the key is the federal reserve. ben bernanke's already told us he's going to keep his foot on the gas. so right now i'm going to say 5%, 10%, healthy pullback would not be that bad. if we get that 5% or 10% healthy pullback and no job growth, then i think it could go deeper. but with job growth it's a pullback, the pause that refreshes. >> we're going to see job growth in the second quarter. >> i agree. but what's next? >> b.k., we'll check in with you a little bit later on in the show. thanks for that. underpinning b.k.'s trade, the short commodity trade is a stronger dollar and on the flip side of that the euro breaking down, rallying 1%.
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the e.u. and imf agreeing on a greece bailout. so is there reason to celebrate this? let's bring in steve cortes, the killer. cortes, are you feeling a little bit of pain today on your short euro trade? not to rub salt in the wounds here, but how are you managing that trade? >> no, melissa, it's okay. pain in that i -- i'm still profitable on the trade. i sold the euro currency earlier this week but i have about half as much in terms of profits as i had yesterday. so we'll go -- a nasty morning surprise. but i am sticking with the position and i am not a believer that greece is suddenly solvent. i won't be breaking any plates this weekend in celebration and belief of greece. >> but steve, no one believes that greece is solvent in the longer term or everybody's concerned about their long-term prospects rolling over their debt. but in the short run greece is basically fine unless the markets go hard after them and today's market action says it doesn't. what is your trigger on this? because i don't think we have the eu as disparate as they've seemed so far. >> i really have to disagree, tim, and for two reasons. one is just the way european
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markets trade, particularly greece and spain. i'm most focused on spain. i think that's the next key example. spain since the end of january is unchanged in terms of spanish equities, the ewp with the s&p in that same period up over 8%. there's a widening gulf between the united states and spain and europe as a whole and we're going to continue to see that in the currency. i think euro currency must go much lower than that. i think really the second reason here is that the euro currency would have been lower if it weren't for government pressure in the united states to try to convince leveraged money to not short it. i think it created a false rise and it will now go lower. >> last point you wanted to make to cyclicals, approaching a new high, what do you do with this? you fade this? >> i still basically believe in stocks, but i want to avoid the cyclical names if you can, particularly ones with a lot of exposure to europe. if you look at the cyclical index this week it made a big new high for the last i think 16 months. but if you you look at cyclicals, and i provided a chart-f you look at sick lick a.m.s on a spread to s&p, as a
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percentage of s&p, it did not make a new high. so it shows us that cyclicals are losing leadership. i believe the reason they're losing leadership is because of so much european exposure. within those big multinational names. i'd rather focus on small caps, xlf, areas that don't have as much european exposure. i want to avoid namds like 3m and procter & gamble. >> thanks, killer. have a great weekend. >> thank you. >> anybody avoid the multinationals because of euro zone exposure? >> no. >> no. >> no. i think phasing this whole thing with europe and all the rest of this, i love killer, but i think he's going down the wrong path. he had to come up with some sort of an elaborate strategy there to tell us why 3m's not going to continue to show us the strength that it has. i actually think some of these names do have a lot more up side. >> a company like unilever really benefits from the currency that's weaker. this is un. this is a name that's around the world and them engineering markets. but that's the consumer and the european union, they're exposed across the board. >> i think these governments are going to surprise people, they're going to start cutting back. i think that's going to be the
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wave for late 2010. and i think the european currency's probably going to go a little stronger because everybody sthiz tthinks the eur currency -- >> how can they cut back if essentially their economies are contracting -- >> they're going to cut down on fiscal spending. their economy will pick up and the currency will get stronger. the big thing right now is we've got a wreck. we've got a pig, portugal, italy, greece, spain. i think people are getting ahead of it now. politicians are worried. democrats are talking about cutting spend. so big, big news. >> want to move on, talk about dealmaking because that continues to come alive. radio shack today reportedly exploring some alternatives. take a look at this blackstone quietly moving up the league tables. cracking the top 10. can you imagine in 2009 it was number 78 and now it's number 9. let's first start out with the radio shack. pilot, yyou we were talking abot this before. the rumor add choirer would be a best buy. and that sort of makes sense.
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because even here in times square there's a stand-alone best buy wireless store. >> right. it could potentially be a best buy. maybe that makes some sense. i've also heard a lot about the leveraged buyout from private equity side as well. a lot of this start on march 3rd. if you take a look at the chart you'll see an enormous amount of stock trading, also an enormous amount of options trading that day. march 10th that day. this rumor's been around for a while, a lot of people buying into it. today it got more legs. $3 billion. people are attaching names to it, all the rest of it. i can tell you this, the options have been very, very active. the stock on these dips and these pullbacks has always been something people have targeted. and they believe the story's going to be true. >> pete-u think the smaller box situation like radio shack is something best buy wants? i know they put the kiosks in the airport but they seem to have avoided the smaller box concept. >> right. i don't know that best buy in my mind, if you were asking me, i don't know that best buy needs them nor do they want them. i think this is something much more in the leveraged -- >> this could be a private equity buyer who dresses this thing up and does what clayton did to kinko's by selling fed ex
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down the road. it's not clear to me the management team at best buy wants to buy radio shack here. >> in terms of the size of the deal, reportedly it could fetch as much as $3 billion. just quickly on blackstone because we did show its move up in the league stables, tim, what do you think of bx? >> i think it's a great story. i think it's a fantastic environment for private equities. anthony talks about it. and there's actually a lot of shuffling within that space. g.o.g. was up over 10% today. talk the mann group may be involved. that whole space is right. fortress. a lot of these guys went public in 2007 and at the top of the market got crushed. their stocks look interesting here. >> m&a activity's going to pick up, and the big banks are going to miss a lot of this stuff. why? too many conflicts of interest. and that's the reason. and blackstone, places like evercore, are going to pick up market share on a relative baasis. >> smaller independents. moving on, you guys know who shia labeouf is, right? >> not really. >> uh-oh. >> you actually know better than we do. >> he stars in "wall street 2," the sequel.
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it's going to be released actually in september. and he was actually -- i guess because he was in this movie all of a sudden he's an expert in trading and picking stocks. he's been recommending oil company ioc, interoil, to "gq" editors after appearing on the magazine's april cover. thank you, shia. the stock actually dropped by -- >> wow. we're picking on one of my buddies, one of my fellow actors. for all you hollywood people out there, "wall street 2" is now called "wall street: money never sleeps." they dropped the 2. reason being, 23 years ago was the first "wall street." not a lot of people in the new generation are remembering that. so it's now "wall street: money never sleeps." and shia, call us. call us with a do stock idea. redeem yourself. okay. don't let melissa pick on you on national tv. >> all i know is that i have a baseball cap that says "ws2." and i'm going to auction that off on ebay right after -- >> we're dropping the 2. >> -- the show. got to take a break.
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more "fast money" up next. >> it's a pearl among tech stocks. bold, ahead of the curve. so 2010 is the year of the smartphone. can blackberry maker rim top arch-rival apple? the trade ahead of earnings on wednesday. and later, there are actually three things certain in life -- death, taxes, and the power of taxes to move markets. as talk of rising rates starts to dominate d.c., we've got the best ways to play the changes to come. all that when america's post-market show continues. verc. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 in fact, they'd spend all of their time dreaming up ways tdd# 1-800-345-2550 to give us more for our money. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i guess i'd just like to see a little more give tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and a little less take, you know? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 if it was up to me, they'd spend a lot more time tdd# 1-800-345-2550 worrying about my bottom line. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 (announcer) at charles schwab, investors rule. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 are you ready to rule?
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we are entering it feels to me like another meltup. >> we are melting up. >> we have to trust the tape. >> this move has at least till the quarter end. >> how much longer does this last? at least through quarter end, tim. then what happens? because quarter end is next week. >> mutual funds t plus 3 actually locked in their quarter end positions today. so you might have seen some of that this week. >> let's take our positions for key events happening next week because we want to get all set up for next week. these are the headlines that you'll be watching. the government will release its scheduled jobs report on friday. big question of course, will it confirm or deny the market meltup? joe, this is something you've been talking about for a long time. >> absolutely. let's trade this one. here's how i see it going down. i think the street isself is looking for a very bullish number. so what happens next week? the market doesn't take any big sell-off because you're going to get support from the jobs number. jobs number comes out on friday. market's not open. now everyone has to really think about it over the weekend. i think that's when the moment
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comes where you see the peak in the market. then also let's be the first to mention this. we are 35 days away from you know what? sell in may and go away. >> wow. >> i'm going to mark my calendar down. rim reporting its earnings on wednesday. 10% move just about in either direction following the release. pete, jpmorgan very bullish across the board about a lot of these handset makers. >> they talked about the hardware. they talked about the software. they talked about integration, vertical integration, and they named research in motion. they also added along nokia, timmy. finally getting a little to them. >> that's my boy. >> and apple. all those names looking very positive going into this. i think they're exactly dead right on. i think the smartphone market is growing fast. the cost is really the issue. and that's with nokia, that's what's building for all of them going forward. >> exactly. we do have a rimm strategy tonight 5:30 p.m. eastern time on "options action." we'll tell you how you can protect your profits for only a couple bucks going into earning. so you will not want to miss that. and with health care now put to
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bed we focus on taxes for the next quarter. will we see higher taxes across the board? and the bigger question is who's going to see these taxes? dan clifton of strategas joins us here on set where health care's seemingly off the table now. it's out of the way. so tell us which stocks, which categories of assets will feel the most pain. >> in health care? >> i'm sorry. in taxes. >> oh, that's right, in taxes. we're looking to the second half. taxes are definitely going up. so what we're trying to see is how activity pulls forward into 2010. when we've raised the capital gains tax in '86, investors pulled forward their gains. when we raised the dividend tax in '93 special dividends were paid to investors. but then you fall off in 2011 and i would say that tech and small caps are most affiliated with the capital gains tax. there's an inverse relationship between the nasdaq performance and the capital gains tax rate. >> what do you do about corporate america, though, dan? because those are the guys that are -- i'm a little bummed out. my effective tax rate's probably 50. why is corporate america getting away -- they're the ones with the cash on the balance sheet. aren't they the targets?
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and who suffers the most? what sector? >> tim, you're absolutely right. but first the individual tax increases are going to go into place january 1st, 2011 but corporates are going to be part of the story. i would envision a lower u.s. corporate tax rate, but a broadening of the base to start capturing that foreign source income that's leading to the lower effective tax rate. and that will then put them on par with domestics. that's going to be a hit to industries all across the u.s. multinationals. but i think there's just not enough wealthy people to fund the deficit. so it would come from the -- >> at least we're not greece. >> how high? >> right now they're going to go to 39.6. but if you look in the health care bill, we're spreading out the double tax on investment income. we're going to create a medicare payroll tax on -- >> and the average american, what do you think their tax rate is going to be, their blended tax rate? >> at the higher -- where the margin decisions are going to be made, that effective rate right now is about 32%. that number's going to go up to about 35%. >> daniel, there's a report that larry summers would step down by the end of the year.
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before we get your reaction to that, our own karen finerman did sit down with summers i think a couple months ago, maybe a month ago. this is what he had to say about the issue. >> does it matter to you what job you have to have your economic voice heard? i mean, let's say ben bernanke decides he's going to go off -- >> i'm not going to go there. i like what i'm doing. i feel like i have a chance to make a difference by thinking about economic questions and my views if the president asks me to do something in which i think i can make a contribution, the right approach to it is to say yes. and that's why i'm very pleased to be working at the national economic council. >> quickly, the odds that he steps down by year's end. >> by year's end? that number's probably 50%. the president's economic team always leaves. but i'll say that larry summers is a public servant, he's serving his purpose, we're going to get positive job growth, he's going to get the credit for it and that could all change when swrobz start coming back. >> daniel clifton, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. good final trade right after the
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see you back here monday at 5:00 p.m. for more "fast money." "options action" is next. have a great weekend. >> announcer: monday, mired in the market? get a new way to trade. go beyond stocks for bonds. and happy early returns. get earnings plays today. because if you're not first, you're last. "fast money," 5:00 eastern on cnbc. first in business worldwide. host: does charlie daniels play a mean fiddle? ♪ fiddle music charlie:hat's how you do it son. vo: geico. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. hi, ellen! hi, ellen! hi, ellen! hi, ellen! we're going on a field trip to china! wow. [ chuckles ] when i was a kid, we -- we would just go to the -- the farm. [ cow moos ]
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