tv Street Signs CNBC May 4, 2010 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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there, but they, too, are reporting that their credit losses are improving as well. same thing the u.s. banks have been reporting. in fact, stocks like lloyd's have been moving up recently on that idea of improving credit rating. trance ports, that's there is the story of the day. down 135 points yesterday. down 160 points today. that's choppy trading. that makes it very tough for anybody to be able to figure out how to mick money onility. retailer, same story. 2% 3shgs% increases. retail stocks, j.c. penny and coach, all down. 2% 3shgs%, 4% today. same situation with the other high beta names, homebuilders. all up 2% to 4% to the downside today. just about the same amount. tradertalk.cnbc.com. >> add technology to the list of the sectors you were talking about that are up and now down. nasdaq hanging around the range much of the day. down 3%. loss of 76 points. worst day here in many months.
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i will take you through big cap followy. losses of 3% to 5%. cisco systems, 3.75%. yahoo, 3%. microsoft, 2.5%. epay was down 5%. down by more% as is google. for google, 510 bucks. apple down 3%. concerns regulators may be looking at the company in some form or fashion. nutri-system is higher today. highlight stocks up. nutri-system is up 22% p earnings better on top. stock also got upgraded. even some companies that have fairly good earnings news like cogs do s ds d s ds d s ds do .
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i have taken you through big cap tech, losses of 2% and steeper than that from a percentage sfintd across the board. semi conductor index as well, down 5%. chips are especially weak today. that's how big -- helping drag the whole index down. to rick santelli in chicago. >> thanks, judge. obviously it has been a wild day. treasury definition of wild is lower yields. let's start with the higher yields and look at a two-year greek maturity. you see it is up over 350 basis points or at least it was. things moving around quite a bit. if you look at a multiyear chart, center stage, currencies delivering the news rather efficiently. quickly today. as we now are getting ever and ever closer to the 130 level. hey, let's look at a couple of spanish banks. if you want to see some real action, the two-week big -- if you look at those, you can see those are one-ier charts. you can see they are down in the neighborhood of 10% today alone. these are all situations to monitor closely.
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let's go back to trish. >> okay. thank you, rick. okay. we are back here in the panic room with jim cramer and plenty of panic out there in these markets. wouldn't you say? you know, i think the important thing to remember is you don't need to panic. you can actually stay one step ahead of this by predicting what those that are really panicking are going to do. you have some good insight into some of the things they are looking at. >> thank you. good to be here. i would tell you that there's some -- real problems and then there's imagined problems. you have a company like emerson which i think people don't realize this is a dramatically important company to cyclical move many. it has been the leader in the cyclical. suddenly it reports a disappointing quarter. then you start thinking well, why am i united technologies, 3m. why have i bought cat? you go through the comps calls and reelize china is very important to them and maybe china is slowing down. then have you a possibility of europe slowing down. >> that's one of the big issues here.
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>> emerson is real. >> europe, people really freaking out there now about europe. some of the people are saying the shorts are having a field day here. they are really going after europe hard. and it is contributing to what we are seeing here in the u.s. >> no one ever wants to talk about the dar it is really -- interesting moment whenever you talk about the shorts, that's supposed to be the spanish guard says the shorts. of course, we know that if you want to make money as a hedge fund manager, you have to go with the trend and you have to bang down. if i were a hedge fund manager now, i certainly would be shorting spain because i have a feeling that tomorrow morning, people wake up and say you know what, spain thing is for real. it doesn't matter the government says not to. spain is for real. then you get the absurdity. what's next? >> we start talking about princess grace. >> let prince albert out can. you know, in nevada, up want to
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put on a tax. peru, chile. we worry about that. hedge funds are completely overweighted in the freeports of the world. and we know that -- the oil decline in itself would have caused a sell-off today. oil is now 13 pet of the s&p. you can't get that down. and not expect a bug chunk of the s&p to go down. terrorism -- talk about that later. >> the banks. lot of concern with thinreg going on. >> if you are a senator, you wouldn't win in november. that's the game, you know. and -- so -- you don't take that much money from the banks. i don't know why that happened. baung have really -- turned out to be the natural gas companies, they don't want that -- we call it mine share on my show because you never want to get in trouble and say you can buy people. you know. i will extend that particular diplomatic thomas jefferson thinking. i believe that the banks in tend will be unscathed by this. in the interim we have to worry
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about it. panicking. i'm talking about getting the panic play. >> people are worried we will see many smaller banks so there is a lot of things -- >> we are going to have -- >> we have apple. you said the conspiracy concern. >> apple, apple p.m. how many times do we have to have the government come down own tell? intel was the superior manufacturer. apple -- you get too big in this country when you are goldman sachs, or you are apple, the notion of the too big may not be to fail but to be investigated. >> we have plenty of things to worry about here. plenty of things to be -- >> remember, later on i will give you a recipe for what do if you are panicking. it is not just -- the drug stores are filled with whole different ways to actually profit as opposed to go into a stupor. >> we will stay tuned for that. stock trading segment. we want to bring in our whole panel to discuss what's driving all this panic. what's driving the markets today. here with us now wor, vanguard
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strategy group. mr. gross, let me start with you. when you look at what's happening in europe now, how serious of a concern is it for you and what does it mean for the u.s. debt markets? sfwl well, i think that it is serious. greece is 2% of the euro land economy. but it is important because it is representative of the southern portion of that continent and perhaps i think the most grievous offender in terms of debt and risk of repayment. it is -- you know, it defaulted several times in the past few centuries. still, much larger which is spain. and you are talking about defaulted 15 times according to rinehart. to me suggests the current contagion has to be contained or
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a forest fire is on our hands. the important connection for the u.s., of course, is that the u.s. is no stranger to -- high deficits and so is vulnerable itself to the event in greece which in its core and i think most important thing is that deflationary and not reflationary event. >> bill, you raised a great -- great to see you. you raise a great point which is that people say why is gold down if there is such panic. clearly this is a way deflation. how about if you own a euro. and you are rich and you are in europe. don't you just want to go buy short term and u.s. bonds and get out of what looks to be a broken currency bill? >> yeah. i think you want to -- two things. i think in europe, the insurance companies, the banks, to a certain extent are moving to the core of euro land which is germany and perhaps france. certainly germany. that to them represents the core of nonrisk. safest type of investment. and you know, some elements in
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euro land will move to u.s. treasuries because it represents -- statement on the dollar and represents itself a very safe type of investment. we have two things going here. u.s. treasuries are doing well. >> let me ask you, where does this end? bill just pointed out we have seen spain default umpteen times before. but now it is a very different scenario because spain is part of the european you don't know only and the euro is the currency that they all rely on. so -- in some ways, you know, if spain were to default, you have a massive problem on your hands with the rest of the countries involved. of course, the euro currency itself. how does this end? where do you see this end up? >> first, i think we have to put it into some context. we are talking about the stock market today because off. somewhere inside of 3%. you know, we are still up about 8% in the last six months. and we are still up 8% on the
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u.s. stock market on 200-day moving average. i think the volatility we are seeing in the vix and some of the credit spreads from some of the sovereign currencies have to be put into context, we have been in an extremely tame inflationary environment and many of the high beta names are up anywhere from 70 to 100% since the march of '09 lows. so where this automatic ends we don't know. i think what we are seeing is it is -- definitely increased the volatility and -- we are trading day by day on the news that's coming out of the euro land sovereign credit market. >> you raise ad great point. i go through the charts. i bring my charts in and deliver them saturday morning like i was 42 in 1988. and looks to me that we have so many overextended charts that there's -- i know this always sounds like an -- it is a little bit healthy to see some of these stocks pull back to levels that -- before they went what i call powerbolic. >> no doubt about it. since the low in march of '09,
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we have only traded two brief times below the 50-day moving average on the s&p. and -- so -- you know, we can't expect continued low volatility and markets that are up, 70% to 100%. i wouldn't try to put today's mark net context. we could see some of this last week. and event like today to see that recover. what i do feel we are going to have is some -- increased in volatility and -- trading on the news that's coming out of the euro land what do i do with my money? if i really care about which direction this mark set heading in, the next -- week or so, i don't want to lose out, what do i do? >> well, i think that if you are overweight equities stay there. we think this is a buying opportunity. i do think that there are a lot of weak as long as that were really long-term bearish and got pulled late into the the upturn which is one of the most powerful economic recoveries we had since the 1930s. and they have been pulled into it and they are not believers and this is very healthy
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pullback driven by what i could call an aftershock as opposed to round two of lehman. this greece problem is an issue for sure. spain is an issue. but the europeans almost to -- owe this money to each other. ultimately they will resolve it amongst themselves and they don't have a good political process to do that. we are forecasting a messy resolution and have the euro going to par which may be an exaggerated idea. it goes lower against the dollar. but in that pullback, there be, you know, aftershock effects on u.s. equities but we would be buying in and establishing, re-establishing long positions as we do that down around 1150 on the s&p. we think it looks interesting. certainly as bill pointed out, german assets will be very attractive here. as the pullback continues. germany is a beneficiary of a lot of what's going on right now. >> do you consider this a real correction or a start of one? >> well, i think that it is to
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the extent that the situation in euro land continues on a negative path. i mean, yes, euroland is -- is an entity in and of itself. they owe the money to themselves. they are a large consumer. they are a large producer. there's large -- they are as large as the united states in terms of the economic block and to the extent that this specific economic block is in a deflation and in a -- near recession and potentially moving towards recession, then that affects global output and global economy and global asset markets as well. >> let me go back to something you said about germany. lot of viewers that are domestic centric and they are getting used to getting up in the morning and seeing our futures down big and europe down big. if we were to pick a german stock or german etf, wouldn't we be more likely to be pulled along with the rest of europe down? than just going with something american that has good divide s dividends? >> i think in the near term you
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are right. germany is going to just -- in sympathy go down. lot of german companies, they are big exporters and have more exposure internationally than a lot of u.s. companies do. you mentioned china slowing but it is going from 12% -- 12 to ten. we think they benefit. chinese that own a lot of euros trying to figure out which european assets to keep the euros in and german assets are -- at least money good. i mean, they v haven't defaulted in a long time. >> we are going to leave it there. >> nobody panicked. it is -- you know, looking for one of you to jump out the window. you are in solid grounds. overdone here. >> thanks so much. >> thanks. >> jim, you are not going anywhere. >> i wouldn't think of. >> it you are here for the whole hour. >> i'm looking at the charts, doing reading and catching up on interviews. >> good. coming up next, your prescription here. your prescription for panic. wear going to continue to cover this market. >> more of a mussling relaxer. >> that's a good way to put. >> it what role does the dollar
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welcome back to "street signs." we are watching oil have its worst one-day decline on a percentage base nice three months. since last february 4th. wild ride down. along with the euro today the dollar strengthening, pressure on commodities. came into the day fairly weak because of the fact we got some bad data or weak data. out of china. that set the market selling. sell-off in equities has spread to commodities as well. even in gold, which early in the day, had set a four-month high as we saw some investors looking for a safe haven there. also experiencing a bigselfoff and bigger sell-off even in silver as well. lot of folks taking profits early in the day. traders say thing now, trish, is -- big sell-off for today as we focus on the dollar. you have to keep your eye on the spill in the gulf. and, of course, hurricane season a month from now. >> plenty going on.
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bertha coombs, u.s. dollar soaring to a series of 12-month highs today and against the euro over fears here that the worst is not over for greece. and there could be more to come. here to help make sense of the volatility in the global currency market and what it means for the u.s. dollar, we have david, president of sema global. running for u.s. senate seat hoping to represent the state of new york. jeff is the chief market vat gist with lpl financial, manages more than $280 billion in assets. eric vine, managing director of vanekg. an incredibly qualified panel along with my co-host for the hour, jim cramer. i'm going to begin there with david. what is your sense on where the u.s. dollar is headed. will it continue to gain against the euro as the problems potentially worsen for europe? >> i think -- hi, trish, jim. i think it can. it depends on how europe resolves some of the problems. i do think it is the euro --
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europe weakness that's pushing the dollar up. not particularly dollar strength. we have good growth in the u.s. going. and that's going to be an underpinning for the dollar so i can see it going some stronger here. >> all right. let me ask you something, david, first of all, i think it will -- it will be the most intelligent guy who has run in -- recent history on this. somebody back there, i don't remember. what i worry about -- >> i am sitting there listening to the conference calls that happened in april. and many of the companies were forecasting particular level to the euro which would make it so that the head winds were bad but not tsunami-like. when you get this kind of decline, then you really have to redo your estimates and how much should you think we should be worried about that just the dollar is going to be so strong that our companies are going to have shortpaul ace cross the board that sell to europe? >> i agree that we will see earnings shortfalls from the currency translation. but on the other hand i think what we are see sing better growth in the u.s. economy and so you will see better top line
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sales. from the standpoint of an equity value, it is more valuable, i think, even though you might take translation hits. >> that's so right. so right. >> you know, jeff, we have heard a lot of folks say that -- given that there's so much uncertainty and concern in europe now, surrounding t ing thing the cur debts, lot of money we may see in the foreseeable future pour into the u.s. clearly seeing evidence that -- of that comes to the u.s. dollar. and do you think that it might be a trend that -- reaches more than just currency? >> well, i think so. we are seeing money coming from overseas. right? buying that's taken place over the course of the last year has not really been the u.s. investor. it has been the foreign investor whether it is sovereign wealth funds or institutions on or individual overseas. they have been pouring monday i don't in the u.s. and buying equities. that's likely to continue. europe, you know, we are -- dramatically underweight europe and no exposure there and continuing emphasize the u.s. for a variety of reasons we just
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talked about. i think european investors see that same safe haven aspect to the u.s. markets and -- as david said better economic growth to boot. and -- those combined to, i think, to con the flow of dollars or current se cease into the u.s. >> one of the things i was talking about with my friend last week when we were doing our mammoth coverage of the investigations of the senate was that there is a lot of belief that we are beginning to see such strong recovery in america, he uses the "v" term and i'm still going with "u," we will see taxes go up and our deficit be the opposite of greece and spain. is it too optimistic that maybe we are not going to be part of the parade of horribles but positives in the second half of 2010? >> i think the matter -- i think it depends what your investment horizon is. if you are talking over the next few days or weeks, i think this crisis skipped the wheels. it is not about greece. euro zone crisis.
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and fair or not, all as i prices are going to get dragged into it. however, i do think that your broader point is important and as people watch this crisis to keep in mind. the u.s. is for all its problems and not going take the other side of -- of the what those -- of what those problems are. well distributed. but they are very different than what is going on in europe. euro is -- becoming more clearly currency without a country and the u.s. doesn't have that issue. and so asset prices will trade one variable which is the euro zone crisis. broadly speaking, after this, i do think that this is -- sort of crisis phase can't last, can't continue at this pace. there will have to be some resolution to it. >> what do you see as that resolution? i want to jump in. what do you see as that resolution? what might that look like? >> i think that's -- the critical question. if i had to give one simple answer and it is a little
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simpler than it was a few weeks ago which is why i think dashes especially -- quantitative easing. the way the u.s. did. actually buying bonds. the ecb actually buying bonds. as opposed to this -- repo window which isn't working. you have -- you have t-bills. issued by greece which can be repo'd to the ecb for 100 euroses -- issue price and not trading at 100 cents. clearly confidence is broken. something more dramatic needs to be said. one word or one phrase would be quantitative ease. >> have you heard this -- the -- german solution that we have been hearing about which is the notion of -- nuclear solution which is that we just let things happen and see what occurs. that to me reminds me of the '80s where we let things happen with argentina and things happen to brazil. is that on the table? >> i think that -- we -- it is still unresolved to whether creditors are going to have to take some of the pain. right now, greece is raising the
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value added tax on greek people to 25%. and in order to pay the bonds all back in full to 90% of those bonds are owned outside of greece. and so you wonder about the fairness equation and that issue will come to the u.s. where we have -- similar situation in some of the states. where they borrowed too much and so we are -- where is the fairness come down between the people and private sector, government sector and creditors in trying to resolve some of the overreaching debts that are out there. >> yeah. certainly makes it hard to grow the at a time you are upping tax rates. >> go barter. peanut butter and jelly. >> that's a real problem. you have probably greek -- major greek trade you don't think only strike starting tomorrow. and -- you have -- they don't want these -- sort of the medicines worse than the illness as they see it. and so you have a number of things that could still detail the effectiveness of greece to
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implement the mandates associated with this bailout plan. >> we always forget. in thor '80s when i was -- at goldman sachs, oh, my god, did you really work there, you -- you saw a tremendous -- you -- i want to go back -- pre-date '96. early 80s when latin america was falling apart, we began the great bull market here. one of the things i want to remind people is that the whole time greece was falling apart we have one of the greatest moves in american history. so i do not want to constantly join the parade with -- i call it the -- buffet of horribles of these countries where -- when i -- i should be shaking and worrying about spain, just a second. if i shook and worried about greece, i would have sold our market at -- 9,000. i actually liked to catch those 2000. let's not get too negative. >> can i add one? >> sure. >> so -- if a country changes for the better in its structural outlook, if it shows that it can control spending on the government, for example, capital does come back to that country. so you get -- the -- it is --
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this is a bit of a positive response to it. sometimes a notable positive response from markets if a country moves in the right direction. i think that the problem greece is having that the imf prescribed a program you can look at and say boy, i wouldn't want that to happen to -- my private sector in this case greece's -- greece's private sector is getting hammered. and so the market is not reacting well to that at all. >> we have to leave it there. >> i'm changing the registration in new york. i'm sorry. that's way out of line. >> great endorse many for david. david, thanks for coming on. jeff, eric, great to see you guys. don't go anywhere. just ahead, mr. cramer's prescription for calm. >> i'm a doctor and i can do it.
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this is going to be really neat. >> sure hope so. >> what good it isn't? >> don't be so negative. we will have the time of our lives. >> i'm not being negative. i'm being nervous. >> don't be. everything going to be great. >> just like high school, right? >> i'm probably like the only person on the plan thaet has not seen this movie. jim, you requested this clip.
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>> you bet i did. >> i have -- what's this -- >> far left guy is mr. pfizer. middle guy was mr. merck. guy to right was mr. general mills. what's happening here is not just people are dump stocks, caterpillar, 3m and saying i'm going to the sidelines. classic rotation. they are going into the car and buying the pfizer and merck -- which, by the way, have the added advantage of just mr. pfizer report ad good number and mr. merck was the stellar number. general mills is -- did a split. we know splits are -- they do call the attention to what's going on well and ken powell is the -- what i'm trying to say is it is not just like a run for the hills. panic, gloom situation. we did that at the top of the show. what i am saying is that there's money going to a sector that's so beaten down that i think it is putting at a bottom. the last three days the drug stocks acted well. i think this was being foretold. this group is getting a rush of
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money. short-term outlook this is where you go. because i think that the others -- really a butcher block. which means there's a lot of knives coming down. no knives coming down in the drugs in the foods and dividend plays. talking about in other words. why don't you and me hoefrd to the barters conference and just -- pow wow. >> let's talk about the others. food, that's -- dividend plays. lot of things out there that people can be looking at at a time like this. >> i know this is just beyond boring. that's okay. even though it is tv. we can afford to be boring to make people mind. tremendous number. >> you are never bore. >> duke reported good -- i'm not pro-duke because duke-duke has a lot of call. i'm worried about coal. you know, duke reporter a fine number. hey, how about this one? want a little sicyclicality? here's what the bears say. jim, they sell nike's in china. china's cutting the gross domestic -- trying to break their economy.
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people will buy fewer nikes. 300 million people becoming middle class in china. that's 600 million shoes last i looked. >> let me ask you this. lot of the bears may also say, jim, kweerned about the u.s. consumer. we don't necessarily buy into this. >> there's no buying -- all right. buy the tradedown. go by the knockoff. i -- look, let me tell you what's interest. >> people need sneakers at the end of day. >> they don't need the $200 jordans. here's something interesting. costco on this -- charitable trust, this stock has not gone up for as many -- this stock has done nothing as the coiled spring targets and no doubt where you shop true religion, half a pair of pants costs 200 bucks. those stocks are rotating into costco and walmart. and that, again if you want retail, that's what's going to -- walmart, costco and revenge of the in other words. this -- utilities and don't
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forget. >> what about the -- >> mlp. >> what about the homebuilders? you were telling me earlier -- >> they are domestic. everybody is freaking out about the homebuilders because they are saying the tax credit has gone away. i urge people to go on the horton conference call. this has so much momentum and not -- it is not affected by the peninsula let alone monaco, luxembourg, san morino. >> there's no -- no portuguese restaurants even -- >> no. i have citi national on the -- after the bell. my show. and that's -- california based bank that does not care about paella. >> well -- >> there you go. >> there you go please watch "revenge of the nerds." >> heinz, altria. these are the stocks you want to look at in this environment. >> cramer is getting a one-on-one with domino's ce onto
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get a sense of what better -- >> stock got killed today. we are going to taste test a piece of cardboard with cheese versus a slice of pizza. can i stay? >> i'm having fun. >> panic and fun. >> traders take on the fear and loathing happening in the market. are they worried? "street signs" will be right back with jim.
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jim, i will start with you. what's your take on today? what are you doing now? >> well, i still think that the currency fluctuations have a more significant influence on the stock market than people think. and i think the seeds were sewn for this on friday when the australian dollar showed technical weakness. this morning happens and get lower than expected manufacturing numbers out of china which hurts all even more. key trading partner. all the thing starts to blow newspaper europe. what normally happens is sell the euro and move it into the u.s. dollar and aussie dollar and canada. aussie is on its heels and moving the dollar gets exacerbated and then we just destroy the commodities and destroy the stock market as a whole. i think that the innocent in this is the canadian dollar. canadian dollar is getting sold off because the commodity prices are going lower and sell off the canadian and dollar goes higher and like a ball rolling down a hill. canada is getting taken with it as an innocent and would look into buy canada air 9650 and fxe, .7% lower than here. >> let me follow up on that. i worry about this resource tax.
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looks like australia puts it on and it is like a windfall for australia. are you thinking that at all the canadians could see what australia is doing and canadian budget is much better. why don't we tax the guys? they really don't have have a lot of friends. >> so far, canada has been doing the right thing. i have hard time believing they are doing knuckleheaded things. i still like canada as a place to be. >> look, i agree. canadians went the other way. peter conditiony, i -- i have always believed, peter if we don't catch a rally in the next 20 minutes, it is going to be down for the rest of the day. we are going to come in ugly. are you feeling that without a rally happening in the -- in the next 15, 20 minutes, you know, it is all over but the shouting for the rest of the day? >> absolutely, jim. yes. very pivotal point in day where you are either going to get the rally or you have no shot another all for positive momentum into the close and i couldn't agree with you more. and my sense is that -- i have been watching the dow and s&p
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here. dow specifically at the 244 level, down on the day, if we don't start seeing some sort of traction, we could not only bleed into the session and lower but also see that action overseas and into tomorrow morning. >> totally agree. >> jim, are you watching the vix here at all? it is -- approaching -- completely exploding. what's that telling you about the markets now? >> it told me that up to this point people are forgetting the significant downmoves could happen. look at the chart, it has been great move for the last 14 months. every couple of months somebody predicting a correction. one day they will be right. this might be the beginning of it. i don't really believe -- >> are s there a certain level you are looking at? we are in the 20s on the vix. maybe we can show that chart quickly for the viewer to see. >> no. >> is there a certain level you are looking at? 30 40shgs, that will tell you something? >> well, when -- people -- when we get to 30, 30.5, things change. all of a sudden people start wanting to sell premium instead of buying premium. we are in a gray area and i don't think it is particularly
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significant. if it starts getting -- couple more moves like this and will be zblig what do you think my rotation pieces, the best money made in the next two, three days in pfizers and mercks, those that want to take a longer-term perspective and buy a quarter of the caterpillars and 3ms into the close and let the market take the course and pink more later? >> in a word, brilliant. there's absolutely -- >> wow. >> in a word -- >> where's my mom? >> i hope she is watch. >> great, great call. i couldn't agree with you more. darylings of this year have been punished today and they were punished on friday. who would have been the principle gainers? food? drugs. defensive stocks. those stocks are going to hold up very, very well. and as long as we continue to see pressure on the darlings. >> these things are valued in single digits. double dij it growers. it is an interesting moment for that group. >> great opportunity to capture -- >> thanks for the nice words. >> we are going the leave it there. thanks, guys.
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welcome back to "street signs" with your "daily realty check" i'm diana olick in washington. the pending home sales index is took another jump in march up, 5.3% month to month and just up over 21% from a year ago. in index representing contracts signed, not closing, was likely pushed higher by the home buyer tax credit, which expired last friday. simon property group made a $6 billion buyout bid from general growth properties and although is on board with brook field asset management. and the jumbo of mortgage market may be falling a bit. citi mortgage announcing slashing rates on jumbo credit work they borrowers.
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saw much higher than expected demand. check back with the "realty check" tomorrow morning 11:50. trish. >> okay, thanks for that, diana. stay with us, if you would. we're asking the question whether or not a shift in focus in economic data later this week. lou bryant trading strategist with -- rather, loubrien, i should say, trading strategist with drw trading group. sorry about that, luke. >> that's all right. so let's talk about what we're looking forward to at end of this week and that's the big jobs report. how essential is that going to be in terms of the trader's perspective right now? >> well, i think that the jobs number's always very important, and in the next few, maybe even more important than before, simply because we're kind of all anticipating a turn. i think, though, that a shift in focus, which maybe going on today a little bit, is the shift to -- back to the overindebtedness, spain, greece,
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et cetera. >> but that doesn't stop necessarily. actually you could make the case that that is us, given the amount of debt that we have in the u.s. but in some ways, we're looking better when you can trust us with the european situation right now, lou. >> well, in a certain respect, certainly, because people don't want to buy greek debt right now. don't want to buy spanish debt right now. but they're still buying the treasury. so the fact that we and still market our treasuries is certainly a benefit but when you look at the u.s. states, when you look at the consumer, household debt indebtedness is 90% for the gdp for only the first time since great depression of the '30s, so there is a lot of indebtedness but kind of ignored that over the last years. we've kind of rallied of not having armageddon, fasb rule change, government stimulus, the yield curve help the banks, things like that, but if we kind of run that course -- and i don't know that we've had -- but if we run that course we shift back to being concerned about indebtedness and then i think that's a problem but back to your original question on the jobs, number, yeah that's an
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important one. i think once again for this month and next month we'll also be trying to figure out how much the employment gain is part of the census and how much of it is private sector, but surety jobs number's an important one. >> let's get dianne in here. he's the ceo of citi national. very large and very conservatively run bank in california. on his conference call for the first time saying jumbo loans starting to see jumbo loans being made. what are you seeing nationally versus what russell might just be seeing in california? >> reporter: well, we're actually -- i spoke to a realtor right here in washington, d.c. in northwest, where the prices are a bit higher just this morning, and he says they are beginning to see that thaw in the jumbo mortgage. we know that the recovery that we've seen so far is on the low end. $200,000 and under and so much juice by the home buyer tax credit. we needed to see that available move up buyer and seeing those jumbos starting to thaw
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especially in areas like, this but the jobs of what you were talking about. he said the biggest concern, am i going to get that job or am i going to get the raise they wanted or that paycut. >> number one are there more jobs in the marketplace right now, lou, and number two that companies are actually seeing such a success with their inventor levels that that, in fact, should eventually translate into more jobs. i guess it's just a question of whether or not those jobs can come fast enough to really get us out of these economic difficulties, lou. >> well, yeah i think that's a problem of it. part of it also, they're still very big reluctance as the fed noted for a lot of businesses to hire. one of the other factors that makes this a little bit different is that very few of the workers that have lost their jobs over the last few years are in what's called temporary layoff. in other words, just a shutdown of a factory that's going to reopen or something like that. only about 8%, and that's a real problem, because it's not necessarily a natural thing for people to hire them back, and
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right now the, vess done very well, as you say, because they've been lean and mean, but that on the other hand means minus 4.7% unit labor costs during 2009, that's a record low. and if they can keep that up for a while they probably will. >> okay we'll have to -- >> rather than hire back. >> right, we'll have to leave it there. thanks so much, we appreciate it, diana and lou, great to see you guys. a quick break. we'll have cramer's names.
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we've got fears about a european contingent driving the euro today. you can see it has fallen below that key $130 level there now. well, right even there at $1.30. a 12-month low on the euro. all fears on greece. jim cramer here with me. what you're looking at as the keistclose. explain to the viewer. >> broken currency and you will not see it stop here. there's just no reason to own the euro. it was not created correctly. i remember about the bosque territory and how would you get that going if we saw the recession in spain. j&j is a stock that does huge amount of business in europe. a terrible call this weekend and yet that stock is hanging in there. rotation in.
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worst dollar play and recall. apple, on the other hand, was the leader in technology. if that stock does not start rallying between now and the bell and then you're going to see a carryover j&j and apple down. >> keep an eye on this market. jim cramer thank you for being here. >> thank you for letting me be on the show. >> have a terrific afternoon. the "closing bell" is next. stocks plunging as european contingent investors. is this the start of a correction or an opportunity to buy on this pullback? live from the new york stock exchange. this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. >> and good afternoon, everybody. hi. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo here at the new york stock exchange. we have a sizable sell-off going on wall street today as we approach the close, we're here in the lows. new worries that greece's debt problems will in fact spread to other european countries. it's all putting a lot of pressure on the euro, and oil,
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sending stocks spiraling lower today. of course, the bp story continues as well. the dow and the nasdaq seeing their biggest declines today since early february. take a look at where we stand with the dow jones industrial average down near the lows of the afternoon in the triple digits with decline of 2.wo 5%. 10900. down across the board. biggest decline since february 4. onto the nasdaq, we are seeing heavy selling there as well, and it is across the board, not just in stock, but commodities also seeing a sizable sell-off today. materials and industrials, really the worst-performing large cap s&p 500 groups. nasdaq down 81 points. back below 2500 at 2417 with the decline on the session 3.33%. as you can see right out of the gate this morning, down across the board on the worries spiraling throughout europe. the s&p 500 down 2.5%. let's try to make sense of what's behind this massive sell-off today. here to break down the moves they're se
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