tv Closing Bell CNBC May 4, 2010 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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and what they're covering, simon hobbs, my co-host for the hour, bob pisani on the floor the nyse, along with simon, scott wapner from the nasdaq. bertha coombs coming today from the nymex. rick santelli at the chicago mercantile exchange. great to see you all. everything from equities to oil down right now. what would you see is driving the sell-off? we're going to hear from ernst leburn coming up in the program from xerox and she said not only is it the weakness in europe but also that bp spill that continue -- continues to develop. bob pisani, what are you seeing? >> well, clearly it's not so much greece, it's the general idea that the problems with spain, if the contingent idea is real and people believe it, spain's problems are on a much bigger level. that is, the ability to fix them. the costs to fix them are at a much higher level and china down 17% in the last several months. that's been weak here throughout the day and finally just now, maria, we'll be getting votes on that financial reform bill which will be happening in the next couple of hours. are there votes already coming
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up to basically have a resolutionta there will be no taxpayer money used to fund any bailoutings to the banks anymore. probably one of the first amendments to vote on. banks are a little bit weaker here and i think that's the reason that we've moved down here in the last few minutes. >> yeah, we're wondering if we'll see another leg down on these banks. they're down across the board, simon and also you've got euro at a 12-month low versus the dollar. >> yeah, before we came on, a broke below $1.30. the big news for the american investors is no longer does the market feel it can rise, immune from the rest of the problems around the rest the world and saw primarily this smierng flight to the quality to the dollar. part of china kicking off. let me explain that, the china -- you can see that the growth is slowing there, and obviously a lot of people around the world, but eye of the storm remains europe, and there are three basic reasons to just calling around the trading desk today, maria, as to why that's happening. yes, it's a contingent problem, it's a europe problem. the prime minister of spain
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zapatero is complete madness. a rumor in the market. most big plays in the market don't think that's probable. don't think it's likely to happen but fact that it's there and they have to deny it, stresses the market. there's also a belief that ultimately in the median term greece will have to restructure its group. you know london was closed today -- yesterday. today was the first day that the big foreign exchange players had a chance to react to what came through through the european union and there's a believe that median term the figures will not hold up or the austerity will not be sufficient and haircuts will be taken but main thing that i want to say to you, maria, my final point, it is a belief nat european central bank is going soft. what they said over the weekend was that they would now bend the rules again on keeping the greek debt as collateral. so, again, an individual country provision. and more than that, would ask -- said that the stage we have no absolute decision on the purchase of government bonds.
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in other words they might start monetizing the debt. if the ebc is the guardian of the euro zone, if they start doing that that's not good news and a lot of people are suggesting one way for the euro to go from here and that's down. >> sure. and rick santelli, this is really the first time that the euro has truly been tested in such a significant way. we've heard all of the speculation ever since euro was formed because people questioned having one currency with all of these different economies. one central bank, when you've got different economic trends depending on which country you're talking about. >> yes. it just makes trying to implement medicine an absolute mess, and as simon pointed, to you know whether you agree with monetizing or not, when you do it in the u.s., it's not like there's a geographic issue about which part of the country is benefiting from the national debt, being purchased. you know, it is an issue in europe. and i think we're missing a huge issue. simon, the vote on thursday, you know the ramifications are, the people that are giving the money versus the people receiving the money is going to play out in the ballot box, and austerity
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being rammed down, many throats that aren't in a very happy about, it all of this is part of the picture as well. >> well, what you're alluding to is the election of the united kingdom, an election in which nobody's actually said that probably $100 billion-plus need says to be cut from the deficit. >> exactly. >> none of the politicians have addressed that but let's not forget that the united king on dom is not euro zone. >> yeah i see that. >> the pressure on sterling at end the week, maybe. >> the uk election and they're trying to firure out what it means for america and what it means for business in the uk. so let me get your take, bertha, on what you're seeing, because you've gite sizable sell-off in oil. you've got commodities and currencies, definitely moving on all of these worries that we're talking about. what are you hearing from traders? >> well, you have a little bit of a perfect storm when it comes to energy, maria. you've got, obviously the currency fluctuations, and that was the main driver today. the currency and also the economic data out of china.
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that's what really started the sell-off on fairly heavy volume overnight. initially as far as the commodity move, you saw that safe haven move into gold, which moved gold up to a -- and then came that selling pressure and they started to selling gold. they started selling silver early in order to basically pay up on some of their margin calls and also move into some safer things, like treasuries. the interesting thing is in the backdrop of this is that bp gulf oil spill. >> yeah. >> that is something that we have to keep watching, and it is something that is unfolding slowly here. if you start getting a situation where you get more rigs being shut in, right now you only have three natural gas rigs shut in, but if some of these supply boats can't get in and out to supply the rigs, then you'll see more shut in. and then that's going to be supportive to oil but one trader was saying, we don't want oil to be that high anyway.
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this pullback is probably a good thing because, ultimately, that's going to be bad for the economy. >> yeah, bob pisani, what's the market value loss on bp at this point? i know that you're keeping track. we're talking about down to $150 billion or below that now? >> no, it went from $190 to rough -- yesterday at the close it was $153 or so. so you're talking about declines of 20% essentially. >> yeah. >> on bp. and some of the other traders, the other players there, for example, like kameron have had almost the same amount of declines. >> and you're also seeing, scott wapner, an impact on some of the oil service names over at the nasdaq as well as technology. technology, the best performer in 2009 and now 2010, it was looking strong as well, but that's with this selling today. >> which is why, maria, none of this really surprises me. because in this time uncertainty where you have so many concerns, a confluence of concerns coming together to drive these markets lower, it's the idea of taking
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profits from the places where you've gotten the gains. and certainly technology is one of those spots. the real key question i think becomes, is this time different? every time to market has gone down, we've seen people come in and buy the dips, push the market up and then sell at any excuse. i will note here the market's off of its worst levels here it's down 230 and yes that's significant but it's not down the 280 it was. i wonder tomorrow buy back in and buy on the dips again. >> only down 3% from our highs. >> bob pisani, let me get your take on this. i'm looking at an e-mail right now from renaissance capital, eight ipos expected to begin trading this week. what a day to go public! i mean, what are you seeing in terms of receptions on those o ipos? >> a lot of them are fairly small and two weeks ago we had six, seven ipos go in the single night. the busiest night we've had all year and the overall reception was fairly poor. priced at low end or some of them, three of them priced below
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their price range. i don't know if that will happen now i think it's just a tough time to go. >> which leads you, bob, to wonder, really all of that demand out in the marketplace as you really have seen some negative receptions at some these ipos lately, not only in the price but how they've been received after that. >> it's been a very chop market, you are right. and unfortunately, it hasn't just depended on a down day like today. it's happened right across the -- whether good days or bad. >> well, it makes you wonder -- >> the final thought on the credit markets, maria, a difference between a ten-year yield and the two-year yield the flight is say to safety for the last couple of weeks is as narrow as it has been the entire year. >> thanks, all of you, ladies and gentlemen. this market holding onto real declines. staying negative, all at worst levels but down in the triple digits. down 235 points on the dow, nasdaq down as you just saw, a sharp 78 points. the dollar spiking against the euro today, as european contingent fears overwhelm the markets. is this putting the euro's future in jeopardy?
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welcome back. the euro taking a pounding today. take a look at where we stand versus the dollar. fueled by continuing worries about greece's debt aebt contingent that can be spreading. a spokane sat down with deutsche bank president axle weber about whether the euro is headed for a collapse. >> i think there is no such risk. there is of course tensions in the fiscal policy framework of some european countries, but if you look at the perception of the euro in international financial markets the eur so viewed as a strong currency the single monetary policy for the euro area is a credible monetary policy. we've been age for ten years to deliver price stability just as
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the best members of the euro area, for example, germany and its d-market has delivered in the time before so there is no credibility problem of the currency. >> all right, that's axel weber. david mann is here with us, for standard chartered. and the vice president of capital markets for tempus consulting. gentlemen, good to have you on the program. welcome. so do we believe that axel weber no chance of collapse and it's done well. david, what's your take? >> well i think that you have to be a little bit more skeptical than that particularly if you look at actual term and what the actual key risks are for the euro project itself. surge will have credible monetary policy, you'll have the ability to keep inflation under the ecbc's control but depression under certain parts of the monetary union which have to go through a severe amount of deflation to go through competitiveness and the smaller parts of europe, particularly greece, will have to go through and then the bigger question will be, will it be able to cope with that politically as well as
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economically in the coming years? ultimately we think that you need to see a political union to make a monetary union successful. >> so the question is, would you settle euro? would you put more money to work in the euro, or you're avoiding it, david? >> i think that you've got get to a point right now where we're probably seeing a test that we're testing through $1.30. continuing to see the euro testing lower. eventually our view is we'll get through this crisis, the question is how much worse? i say getting worse. if anything if you were brave enough to be buying the euro maybe against sterling. >> greg, what do you want to do with the election in the uk with the euro. $1.30 level. the next line support we know is $1.30. it dropped below it, broke and then came back. >> it does. we're settle euro right now. we think that there is a very large possibility of this contingent spreading to spain
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and portuggal with both of their debt markets coming under significant pressure and we think as that happens theres a real possibility of perhaps a euro phase two coming out that addresses some of these club med companies and deflate their currencies. >> yeah, really massive troubles with such a significant heart of the gdp, of being that debt. let me get your take, david othis bailout package. i mean it appears that the markets after badly wanting a bailout plan for greece, aren't buying the one that's on the table right now. what's wrong with it? why doesn't the market believe that this can be fixed given that we know at this point we've got the package? >> well, i think there's a few problems with this. the main problem is that there's so many unknown factors and so much of a lack of trust in exactly where the actual numbers lie. it was only a few days that we were still talking about a package, nowhere nearly a hundred billion euros and now 100 billion euros and there is talk that that will not be enough to finance all of the needs through 2012. so i think that the first point
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of contact's got to be that we have to gotay stage where we exactly stage. once we get to that stage, even then, a lot of skepticism whether it will get passed. major events coming. germany, whether or not they pass the package. a major election of course over the weekend in germany. and politics there. and you still need the imf to approve it also over the weekend. even with that, then, will greece actually follow throughane deliver on the very severe cutbacks that will it need and will that be credible? major question marks on that too. >> well, that's the thing. >> i agree major risks coming up. >> yeah, let me get both of your takes on what the european central bank jean-claude trichet said today, saying willing to take greek government bonds as collateral regardless of their credit ranking. is this further evidence to the market that the european union is not in sync? i mean you know, part of -- i mean does germany really want to be the backstop here because that's what it looks like.
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>> we think it's a sign of desperation on their part. they realize that, should this condition continue to increase, continue to deteriorate, the euro remain under pressure and put the entire union under pressure so i think that right now trichet and the other officials are trying to think up any scheme which will really shop pressure not only on the euro but on the debt markets as well. >> david, do you agree with that? >> yeah it was absolutely crucial that we did get the guarantee that the ecb would accept junk debt. and yes they want to be seem and doing as much as physically possible because right now it's starting to look like a slow-motion train wreck, and if you allow the fire to get worse it becomes that much harder to bailout the other companies in europe. >> real quick, gentlemen, bring full circle here. we've got a market on wall street down 225 points, a lot of talk on trading desks. i just hung up with one trading desk, saying everyone's talking about greece and the debt
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throughout europe. how does this impact the u.s., and do you buy into this notion that this market is trading down 2%, 3% on some averages, as a result of what's going on in europe? where's the link? >> we think there's some link as you see the market risk really. people are becoming more risk averse with greece and the possible contingent. we're seeing some profit taking going on right now and people are moving into treasuries right now. a risk aversion trade that we're seeing right now. >> david, wrap this up. >> completely agree. seeing at the moment when you get a worry of crisis it's dollar positive even when it was the crisis happening in the u.s., never mind happening in europe and also we're seeing the vix picking up and seeing generally this time of the year, risk aversion anyway. people are taking seasonal profit for any reasons and again i think that you want to be more cautious of other stock markets but asia too. >> good conversation, gentlemen. bon told us earlier. greg, david, great to have out
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program. thank you. we've got about 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street. this market is selling off today with the dow jones industrial average down. >> of course it is a boom. a way of deflating your way out of structural problems perhaps. >> maybe the chinese want to be watching this story. >> i think that the chinese are buying the dollar, not the euro. check the figures. a higher dollar clearly sparking a sell-off in oil prices sending the energy sector sharply lower as well, but is there a buying opportunity in that particulate? with fidelity, you can take your trading around the world,
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all right the market down 231 points. let's take a look at widely helds here and it is the financial service and technology leading the decline today as you can see widely helds mostly lower. goldman sachs is one actually bucking the trend. other dow components here's how they are faring. >> clearly, also you see, you can see exxonmobil there, i mean the oil sector from producers, two services has been hard hit today on a barrage of headlines from the general loves risk appetite to the leak in the gulf of mexico. but is it now worth your attention as an investment? let's get the outlook from randy, who is a senior oil analyst. and a managing director covering
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the oil services sector at stifel nikolas. randy, let me kick off with you. just on today's trade on oil, when you i see light sweet crude down on an individual session isn't that just kind of with large that this market is so much about speculative capital, not about supply and demand for oil per se? >> yeah, i think so, simon. i mean oil price list a nice rally from 80 to $85 and what we're seeing is a bit of a row treat here. oil at $85 is probably more ahead of itself. so $80 i think is a better price and it could get a little bit more sticky at that level. >> why do you mean, what do you mean by that. >> well what i mean by that is if you look at you know diesel crack spreadings over asia or some the demand trends seeing outs the middle east, asia, brazil, i think there's good support for oil prices in the $75 to $80 range. >> oh, i see. >> so i really don't see that
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prices should fall much farther than that. >> fad, when i see the big oil major, bp obviously, exxonmobil and the others so heavily down, is that a buying opportunity in your view? >> well, i think it is. i think the oil -- some of these oil leavered names. we do think this is a good entry point and find some some of those midcap oil names that have growth an excellent time of thinking about adding to your portfolio. >> randy, let me come back to you that. thad, specifically on the big oil services place, what is your view, thad? >> i think i generally subscribe to randy's view on the price of a barrel of oil. the short-term movements can generally provide some interesting entry points for folks who want to plate oil field services space. it's important to recognize that the marginal cost or the marginal project cost is still $65, $70 a barrel. so movements from $85 to $80 or even $75 really don't have that much of an impact on the
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long-term outlook for activity internationally and particularly as it relates to oil. >> thaddeus, i noticed from your notes that you would steer us away from the north america oil sectorate, the moment in particular two other names. i mean talk to me about your feeling about the gulf spill, the political impact and where now you can most make money. >> well, generally speaking, i think that over the longer term, the oily leverage names service names, manufacturers the offdrilling makes sense. trajectory about north america natural gas directive activity in the second half that leads us to think that investments outside that region are generally speaking a better value. as it relates to the gulf mexico crisis right now, certainly cast a paul over pretty much the entire industry but to be a bit of a contrarian, i think that it's just at times like these and one that you take stock of the intrinsic value of some of these names. might be unpopular to think
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about transocean or cameron. it just seems that the reaction over the longer term could be a bit overdone. >> iy. >> your notes you've also got weatherford, schlumberger, and baker hughes. would you recommend people buy those? >> that's correct. i mean i think if i were to select one single oil field services stock, it would be schlumberger. i like the franchise value. i like the international exposure and their exposure to north america in my mind is the right percentage about 25. it's very difficult to impeach on a competitive basis and where everyone needs to be over the longer term. weatherford can be an appealing play. i would prefer to be a little less pengsive and they're certainly positioned well over the longer term. >> randy, i think before you were mentioning some smaller stocks that you were going to draw our attention to. let me give you that opportunity now if i may. >> yeah, i mean i think you know we like to look at oily stocks and if you can look for some oily stocks that have some good strong production growths in
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growing that commodity a multiplying. creative natural sources, suncorp energy. three midcap oil stocks we think that stand out with good valuation's support and also a lot of free cash flow that they can use to accelerate that growth and build some additional shareholder value. >> so today doesn't change anything for you when you see them so heavily down, you're more likely to be a buyer, randy? >> yeah, absolutely. absolutely. i think this is a good buying opportunity. a lot of volatility in the market, a lot of concern about greece and the spillover effect, but fundamentally we think that there is still good support for all prices and as thad mentioned the supply cost for oil is still around that $70, $75 market. no downside risk longer term. oil stocks will move higher and these stocks move with them. >> thanks both on a very tuesday evening. a momentous day, down 230 day now. >> on heavy volume. just past a billion shares here 1.1 billion. we do have heavy volume and selling which is of course
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concerning in terms of what's ahead. and that's very typical, isn't it? we get this melt-up on low volume and when we go down boy do we go down on heavy volume. >> certainly toward the end of the day. on the other side of this break the ways that you can protect your portfolio if this is indeed the beginninging of a new correction and then where can investors find value in this market right now? we're searching for that. stay with us. later our cnbc all-star panel breaks down on what could happen tomorrow on wall street weap weapon --
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foreign exchange moves, currencies a major factor in today's sell-off. let's get back to rick santelli at the cme in chicago for the latest. rick? >> absolutely. the currency market's wild. we'll start out with a quick chart on the yield curve where the tieest for the entire year in terms of the steepness, the difference between tens and twos and to that currency story, you're watching a bit of history. something we haven't seen in a little over 12 months and that
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of course is the euro on this intraday chart, briefly traded under 1.30. i saw a trade of $1.29.95. now that's a small violation but there's plenty of trading this week and many are paying close attention to some of the sell stops that might be protective below the market in case of a sell-off. will they be trigger? something to pay attention to. now if you want to take a look at what's going on in broader detail just consider some these spanish breaks like santander. this stock is down about 10% today. look at it's performance over the last year, and there's some talk today on the trading floors about insurers and reinsurers. what type of european paper are they holding in the context of claims that might arise from the gulf? all interesting and they keep credit front and center in a lot of issues in the credit markets. back to you, maria. >> rick, thanks very much. we have fear certainly creeping back into this market today on wall street with the dow jones industrial average down better than 200 points right here as we approach the close. we've got the nasdaq composite
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down about 80 points. joining me now to talk more about it larry kantor is head of research at barclays capital. rick bensignor. gentlemen, always nice to have you on approximate. a seller or a buyer in this market, rick. >> i'm a seller. likely to get to 1140 before we get any type of bounce of significance. bring a total to maybe 7% from the high so i think probably more to go. >> do you agree with that? i know that you are bullish long term. >> i am exactly. >> you are not a short-term guy. >> right now i'm on the sideline because i think that this could run a little bit more. i don't think that it has much to do with greece. i don't think that greece is so bad for the u.s. stock market. however, i think that we're due for a correction so i'm a buyer once you settle down. i think that we've got a little ways to go here. >> now, wait a second. wait a second. you've got the euro on one currency with a lot of different economies which have different -- you know different landscapes economically. >> right. >> one central bank.
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everybody was talking about the euro wasn't going to make it when it was formed. it was so hard to believe that you could have one central bank, one monetary policy, you know one currency and argument these different economies. if the euro collapses now we had axel weber on, saying not going to collapse, but if it does you say not an impact on the u.s. market? >> well, i don't know what you mean by collapse. i think that the weakening in the euro is good for the stronger european countries like germany france. >> because of the exports? >> absolutely. i don't see a collapse. i thought that the euro was overvalued anyway especially at $1.50. we suggest 1/10 to 1/20 and the big difference now before maybe these cbe hikes before the fed thinking that anymore. >> for sure. >> with the u.s. economy. that's big reason from the currency. so you're basically saying look this market was overdone anyway, anything would turn it down. greece is really not that big of a deal. >> not for the u.s. stock market. i think it is a big deal for europe and i am nervous about contagi
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contagion. >> increasingly people are saying that europe is stuck in the mud. >> but what's really weird is you've now got a package that is going to come that covers their financing needs for over two years. >> yeah. >> and yet the short-end yields in greece are still elevated. i like buying the short end there. maybe sell in the long end. >> rick, what about you? he's buying the short end. are there opportunities here? how do you allocate money in an environment where you do believe you've got more room on the downside. >> first all, if you look at u.s. stocks relative to european stocks, the benchmark indices are all up in the u.s., they're down in europe. so you certainly having a weaker europe than the u.s. if you look at something like china, china peaked out. if you see the fxi the etf that tracks china that peaked in november of last year peem which tracks emerging markets peak said down january this year pfxi is down 14% or so from its peak while the u.s. is only down 4% so the supposed leadership of the world which is the china growth story which is certainly not playing out at all, what it shows is you can certainly take
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the high-beta names down quicker than the high-beta names and right now the u.s. is lower compared to other markets and china. >> so many people talking so long that property prices are in a bubble and you know 40% higher in the last couple of months i heard on some properties in beijing right now. >> welt government's trying to stop people from buying their third home. it's amazing. >> and they're not flipping it like the u.s., right. >> no, but's have some perspective here. china's one major company that's actually trying to slow their economy down. we actually forecasted our last global outlook, more that china that that was going to have an effect. u.s. isn't there yet. we still have zero rates here in a pretty good economy. >> what kind of 2010 you are looking for? tell me how to invest the rest of the week. this week you are worried about it. >> we're worried, sort of sitting on the sidelines here. we still think that u.s. economy's got another few quarters of strong growth. with the fed staying at zero it's hard motto like the stock market here. we still think that corporate
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bonds look pretty good. we're short on treasuries even though they've just rallied thinking that at some point by the fall people are going to start expecting the fed to get there after the labor market chose improvement. >> rick, the other issue commodities. >> yeah. >> a trade that's been working, working for a long time. the fundamental reason is demand coming out of china. everything in iron/ore, steel, copper, oil. >> copper's on a seven-week low. gold sold off almost $30, bounced $10 but we had an upside target to the 1187. took profits this morning on early strength and the thing to look at is the dollar index so underneath this is so much of the dollar. the dollar's on the best level that we've seen in a long time. it crossed the $83 level today, up a per sent or so on the day. >> you are saying it's already come down why not get in. >> no not saying that. >> probably more room to run. >> probably more room to run. i got out of the a little bit of
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dollar longs today. >> okay. >> but in the grand scheme of things the dollar's close to a major structural breakout to the upside and it could measure to 93 so $83 to $93 percentage terms still a huge move. >> that's a trade. i wonder how sustainable that is with the debt in this country, very quickly your 411 on volatility. you're into the vix. >> yeah. we think that volatility probably has a little bit more to spike up here, it will pull back in fast when it does but in the general scheme and this is the part that a lot of people participants in the market have not anticipated and sometimes ourselves not also, is just how much volatility's come in and potentially stay down. we could have a 2010 that's really a low-volatility environment and we get a couple of spikes up that juice it up but it comes down and we could sit in the teens in the vix and we don't have to have a 25 vix. that's the problem that's actually hurting wall street now is this a low-volatility rally. >> yeah, exactly. >> low volatility. >> great conversation. gentlemen, thank you very much. rick, larry, good to see you always, we appreciate it and
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really round and down the market here, 20 minutes to go before the close, simon? >> yep, and still the big stocks before the bottom of the dow jones industrial average, caterpillar, alcoa, hewlett-packard, and ge down 4%. up next, is this sell-off creating new value plays for you in the market? obby noises.] how well are you diversified? what do you mean? well, i've got stocks in every sector, but that didn't seem to help when they all dipped, and keeping my money in the bank is getting me nowhere. look at commodities. they're a different asset class altogether. there can be better tax benefits than stocks, too. really? really. how did you get started? talk to lind-waldock. call lind-waldock, the premier futures broker, at 800-445-2000 and see if commodities are right for you.
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and as we look at big board down 260 points as we speak. the value investing conference is getting under way in pasadena, california. with that big sell-off, do they see more opportunity in the market? joining me now is david my renberg, founder of the 3-d family funds, which manages $450 million in four private investment partnerships. good evening to you, i'm sure you'll be aware of the falls that we've had today on the market. where would you direct peoplea
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they could profit from what is happening at the moment? >> i would tell people not to make a panicky decision based on anything that's happening today, but to stick to things that they know and can understand and look through the panic to find value. >> what things do you know and understand that will make your clients money? . >> a couple of things i'd mention to you, simon, one thing that i think continues to be of grave importance is for most of us with long-term perspective to try to skew our portfolios to take advantage of the long-term growth in emerging country markets. i serve on the investment board for the state of washington, which obviously has to look out 30 or 40 years, and i believe that if one had a hypothetical portfolio skewed towards emerging country markets given the fact that they're growing at twice the rate that we are and given that their currencies are likely to appreciate against ours, one can have the opportunity for a couple freed
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doublings. if one looks out over several decades. so that's an important thing to focus on. another thing i'd say that people ought to think about is that the markets, generally,ane think today is a perfectly good example of this, tend to overreact at times of uncertainty and they tend to punish companies and industries about which they have doubts and fears. they tend to overcorrect by a multiple of what the actual risk or the actual harm might be and i think those kinds of emotional sell-offs create tremendous opportunities for industrious investors. >> i thought you said in the beginning don't react to what is going on in the moment. >> view a panicky day like today is something that creates an opportunity. don't view it as something that makes you stampede for the exits. >> let me go to your central
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thesis, which is clearly that people should be in emerging markets, and a belief simplicity in what you say that the dollar will fall against them over time because they have higher growth. so clearly that's not immediately evident again today. another man that i respect are warren buffett. are on the railroads, are on transportation. why do you see the world so differently from warren buffett? >> i can't speak for what his point of view is, but i would say that i think that the average annual growth in the emerging markets looking outsort next 30 to 40 years is probably going to be something on the order of 5% or 6% per year. we have in those nations tremendous pools of personal savings, tremendous foreign currency reserves by governments, tremendous work ethics. in the united states by contrast, many households and
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many financial intermediaries need to rebuild their balance sheets which will mean a reduction of what consumption could had been and i think we're going through a period of finger-pointing and incrimination which is likely to decrease the level of confidence by businesses with respect to future investments that they might make. if you put those two things together and look out over a period of three or four decades, i think that i would rather bet on growing purchases by consumers in eastern europe, in ind india, in china and in other portions of asia. >> and do you see any irony at all that the man from the value investing conference is suggesting that people should go into the growth areas in such a way? >> no. because coming back to warren buffett, i think once he said that value and growth are joined at the hip. and what we like do with the dq family funds is to buy into busted-growth companies or busted-growth industries where
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we think that we can perhaps double our investment's value over five years but buy into it at a single-digit price/earnings ratio, growth at a discount. >> excellent to talk to you sir, good luck with the difference. david, from the conference from pasadena. we have now 11 minutes to trade 250. actually while you were doing the interview downstairs heading back down 260 was the loss on the big board but we have seemed to stabilized toward the end here. so what do you want to do in this market? putting money now on the weakness, or do you want to be following the trend in getting out? the we're going to take look at what's to come this week. and what the selling looks like and what it may mean for the coming days.
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you'll get a lot of people who say buy the dips and that's worked and it's worked since march. i don't think that will work right now. 1165 on the s&p 50-day moving average, or close below that, it gets sort of dicey. i've been looking for the exxonenous event to sort of put the top end. in the form of goldman sachs a couple of weeks ago and i think that we're heading significantly lower here. >> okay, nothing different happened. nothing significant happened in greece that we didn't know last week. you know, we don't have a serious, new development coming out of the gulf. why the fear in this market so substantially today versus yesterday? >> i think that some of the chinese pmi i think helped to it. in australian resource tax added to it. i think that this volcano that continues to flow adds to it. it's all in a vacuum. nothing is that big. when you put them altogether i think it is significant. and plus, maria, as everybody has told you we've had a tremendous run in this market. the technical seem to be turning over, we go down on huge volume,
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we go up on small volume. i think that now you're in the sell rally mode instead of the buy dip mode. >> you've got vix turning over, voltime back into this market. >> it tells me that if you listen to pete, jon najarian, you're making a love money. buying protect for month, month and a half and spot on itp is it too late to buy protection? well, it's later than it was but i don't think it's too late. i think that sometimes panic, you have to panic, frankly. it's not a bad word. people use it as a bad word, it's not. i think now is a great opportunity to look at your long positions and establish whether or not you want to be in this market going forward. >> one long that you're not going to reverse course on? >> well, it's interesting. i think that hewlett-packard i think that they've beaten up that stock since acquisition. a name that i would pile into, but again a lot of these names you have to put your laundry list together. waiting for the sell-off, it's coming, you better know when it
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hits your price targets on individual names. >> ah the beauty of "fast money" and the brilliance of guy adami. >> love you, maria, love ya. >> i love you too, guy adami. break down the european contagion from every angle trying to find out all these second derivative trades and bring to you. plus, will some investors flee to safety? could the downturn be the perfect opportunity? melissa and the traders live 5:00 p.m. eastern time. meanwhile, here on the "closing bell," we've got moments before the closing bell sounds. >> and how much of a boost did "avatar" give news corp a third party profit?
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an astounding day, an astounding day for the market as we look to close out now, we've got 20 stocks on the s&p 500 that are not down in negative territory. the selling has been very broad throughout the session and the recovery really very slight by the end it has to be said, bob. >> yeah you know what is interesting here, the big debate is whether we're at some kind of inflexion point.
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technically we've had lots of volatility, lots of volume, trading in a range here, and fluttering to the downside. that's not a good sign necessarily. i'd say most of the traders are bearish, but half of the bears, they're bearish for technical reasons. they're bearish because this is a good time to profits, they're bearish because they're playing momentum. the other are bearish because of fundamental reasons, perhaps that you're pointing out, spain being a much bigger problem than greece is. so what side are you on the bearish stance. >> i am not saying that spain is about to go. >> no, i know that you are not but you've been very accurately analyzing the situation with spain. i think that the question is which side of the bears that you are on? 3%, 7% correction then this is not much of a an issue. if you're barbish for much more fundamental -- >> then we have a problem. in the beginning of year we got beaten back. >> right. >> each sometime those guys have been wrong. the dow transports each stocks up 125. today all 20 stocks down, down
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160. >> the "closing bell" continues with maria bartiromo. [ closing bell ringing ] and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the big board. here's what we're following at the close today. and it was a tough day for those along to market. a huge sell-off on wall street. investors taking money off of the table on new worries that the greek bailout will not prevent debt problems from spreading throughout europe. the dow, the nasdaq, the s&p 500 -- all touching their lowest levels in about a month. the weakness is certainly also touching commodities and certain currencies, the euro sharply lower. we have a big toll on oil as well. oil prices down about 4% today.
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we're just now moments away from news corp's third quarter earnings release, we'll have those numbers and instant analysis once the numbers hits the wire. take a look at how we finished the day on wall street. the market ended off on the worst level of the the session but still down 2%. 225 points lower at 10927. nasdaq, ouch, 3% lower, 75 points down at 2424. and the s&p 500 down 28, at 11 sech 3. volatility rose and so did volume. get to our man on the floor, our bob pisani on the nyse. bob. >> quite an exciting day. a lot of moving parts here, not just greece and spain but we've got issues here with the financials as well. let's take a look at where the major indices, globally, ended up here on the day. certainly a lot of people have argued against decoupling. we're not decoupling from the rest of the world. there's certainly some truth to that. the s&p 500, settling out close to 2.6%, somewhere around there, maybe 2.3%. we just did rally
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