up for us this morning? >> we've got a huge day. a lot of news out of davos this morning. tim geithner is speaking right now, just said that he's expecting 2% to 3% growth this year and we have some comments out of the eu which joe just referred to. so we're seeing a pop in the euro and european markets but in terms of guests, we have a great list, don gogel of clayton, dublier & rice, the ceo of aol tim armstrong, the ceo of the largest hedge fund in the world, bridgewater associates, and then at 8:30 eastern time, we're going to have yuri milner, the largest investor in facebook. we're going to be getting his thoughts on the world of tech, ipos and a lot more. a lot going on here. i should tell you, joe, i wanted you to know this specifically about shawn parker and partying late. i woke up literally only an hour ago because we were out

together. >> are you kidding? >> there were no victoria secret models. >> are you kidding? you woke up an hour ago? that's like 11:00 there, right? >> no, maybe about 10:00. it went very, very late. ann knows. ann the producer knows. i was e-mailing with her very, very late. but, maybe we'll show a picture, got to spend some time with mick jagger. i have two rock stars on the evening. it was a lot of fun. >> i love keith richards. >> that's why you have to 0 come out here next time. >> i will go on a two shot and my wrinkles -- i love both -- >> you'll take both of them on? >> you know, andrew, i was thinking that if you were out and watching the way you drove yesterday, you didn't drive home after having a few cocktails, did you, like were you driving that audi yesterday? >> i did not. i did not. i did not. and i should also say in shawn parker's defense, just in truth, he actually went home earlier than most of the other people. >> earlier than you?

>> i know he has a reputation. >> he went home earlier than you? >> earlier than i did. >> and the victoria secret model was waiting for him at home. i guess you don't really understand that. that's why she wasn't out with you. she was in the hot tub. >> that is always possible here in davos. >> almost ready for a squawk ward moment. he's single, right? god bless him. >> andrew is not. >> she was in your hot tub? >> shawn parker has -- shawn parker has a girlfriend and the girlfriend was here. i should say that. you have news to get to. a lot going on in the world of -- >> he's rushing us. >> was jagger dancing last night? >> can he move like jagger? >> jagger was dancing. he moves -- the guy, he never stops moving. it's unbelievable. >> but i heard he likes the moves like jagger. >> i read that, too. >> it was on page six, right? >> he's like a businessman masquerading as a musician.

he was fascinating. he wanted to talk all about business issues and the economy and all sorts of things. >> he went to school for economics. >> i think we oftentimes pigeonhole -- >> he went to the school of economics. >> back to you, guys. i'm going to get myself into trouble. >> page six creates controversy. the whole premise that you might have thought that -- you might have thought that mick jagger -- why would he be anoud with a song about him? >> it's cool. >> exactly. the whole pretense -- first the morning's top market story. a first read on fourth quarter gdp, due at 8:30 eastern. economists are looking for a growth rate of 3%. that would be up from previous quarters and an expansion rate when we had 1.8%. becky, i read something really interesting recovery doesn't feature typical snap back in growth, a-3 in "the journal. request" this recession was different but in previous recessions by now we are back in o

output and employment to where we normally were. you have gdp rates as high as 7% and them it goes on to say that many business leaders say they're being held back by policy related uncertainty but there hasn't been any actual research but there's the recent paper publish that had gives weights to those complaints. a trio of economists found that policy uncertainty has risen in recent years especially over the past two years and they supposedly have connected the dots to this being partially responsible and going back in history to find high uncertainty. we always hear there's no actual evidence even jamie dimon said yesterday, can't prove it in real time, but 20 years from now when it's written, we will have seen that we shot ourselves in the foot again and again for the past couple of years. a bit of fed speak this morning that we do have coming from a bb card. a bit of fed speak this morning. did you see -- what is a bb --

>> baseball card. when you have the baseball cards of these guys. >> that's the guy. >> that's the guy, get it? >> richmond fed president. i don't know what his lifetime batting average was but jeffrey lacker defending his vote to keep interest rates near zero at least until 2014. rates will have to rise before then. he expects if the expansion continues innationary pressures could emerge. if rates don't rise. and the first public comments since leaving the central bank -- i wish he'd come on here and guest host. we've invited a lot. he argues the fed's latest efforts to bolster the rekocove with unprecedented policy tools will hurt us in the long run. there's a place to provide important transitional support for an economic deal. >> all right. we have a deal just crossing the wires. eastman chemical is buying

solutia for $27. it adds up to $4.7 billion. >> remember solutia? >> i don't remember. >> it was one of monsantos when they split into the ag and chemical business. it's what was left of the chemical business, i believe. when are we going to get to these -- this poll that seems to be a week old. >> we'll do that. the markets real quickly and then we'll get to that. we have gdp coming out this morning. we have gdp this morning and ahead of that you can see the dow futures up by about 29 poin points. yesterday we were looking for the dow. 52 was the magic number. that it gained 52 points. then we would have seen it sitting at a new three and a half year high. putting them together we need 74 points today and the dow futures are up by about 27 points above fair value. s&p is higher and the nasdaq up just over ten points.

oil prices up by 55 cents. the ten year note at this level is yielding 1.95% so back below 2% for the ten year. the euro has taken off. it was up 1.31. 1.315 is where it is sitting. we could be very close to some sort of a greek deal but the euro was moving up even when it looked like there could be problems with the deal coming together. >> before we go back to andr andrew -- now there's this poll gingrich is leading. >> it's on the wa"the wall stre journal." >> it's already flipped again. >> right. and if you saw last night's debate, most people who watched last night's debate have said, and i watched the first 45 minutes of it. most people say walking away, romney was on fire last night. he was holding gingrich to -- >> he should have. >> he won a lot of points.

>> i saw some recent gingrich where he's totally jumped the shark pointing to romney owned some goldman sachs stock so that means he was betting against -- >> he said he's profiting -- he owns funds that have money -- he owns bonds in fannie and freddie means he's profiting on people losing their homes. he said, wait a minute, have you taken a look at your own investments? you own mutual funds that own stock in fannie and freddie, too. >> why are this he crashing capitalism? it's ridiculous to be having -- and the -- okay. trade is done every day. who nose what the motivations are. 8 88.5% for romney being the nominee. 88.5%. as high as 90%. it was at 50% after south carolina and after all the florida polls showed gingrich in the lead. all the florida polls have flipped. there's five or six i saw yesterday that had romney in the lead at 88.5% at this point and

listening to some of the rhetoric, romney sounds like carl levin grilling blankfein. suddenly gingrich sounds more like him than a free market -- you mean gingrich. you said romney. >> he knows better than this. and we asked him now, is this personal now or business? ever since what happened in the caucuses at iowa with that pac it's been personal and it's like slash and burn. >> that's the headline number from "the wall street journal"/nbc news poll. if you dig deeper into it -- >> i wish it was just nbc because then i would totally say -- >> if you dig deep near it, there are interesting things they find in terms of likability and general elections. >> did you see bob dole yesterday? >> coming out sharply in favor of -- well, actually he has a long history with gingrich. >> i love -- >> he blames gingrich for george bush, the first george bush, losing that re-election.

>> all right. we might as well did -- i had some homework for andrew first thing in the morning. becky is tossing it, how was that for your first assignment, the 16 -- >> i sent you an e-mail. >> 16 preeminent scientists. >> we couldn't be doing this. >> huh? 16 preeminent scientists. >> i was with shawn and mick. >> 16 sign this that over the last ten years there has been effectively zero warming. zero warming. and that's impossible given the models that the zealots use. it's an impossibility that that could happen because so much carbon has gone in. so this feedback loop between the small amount of carbon and the water vapor they use to scare the bejesus out of everybody -- are you allowed to say that? probably not. but the heck out of everyone. see who is going to come on 0 and have trouble with us again.

>> i did. is that for real? did you set that up? bill murray. >> bill murray. i'm already changing the subject. bill murray will be with us in pebble beach again this year, andrew. i said bejesus, that reminded me of what he says. >> did you talk to him yesterday? >> i department. we don't need any other guests basically. i know brian roberts will be out there. we had to cancel brian roberts. >> to make room for bill murray. >> we're kidding. you're welcome, mr. roberts. please come on. you have someone to talk to now, andrew? are we making jamie dimon wait again? >> i have a guest almost as big, if not bigger. he's actually jack welch's boss, you know him very well. he's the ceo and thank you for being with us. say hello to the crew back in new york. >> hi. we miss you here. come on 0 back. >> miss you, too, don. >> he's been on as a guest coast. >> i know he has. >> you should come on again when you come back. jack welch's boss. i don't know, though, that's

like -- ask him -- is that really true? >> don, really, right? >> i sign his paychecks so i guess i must be. >> i'll actually start there. no, look, this is the guy. jack has actually been very, very positive on the economy. tim geithner moments ago saying he thinks we're going to get 2% to 3% growth, gdp this year. where are you at? >> i think we're going to get some growth. jack reflects what's happening in 16 different companies that we own around the world in all kinds of service, consumer and industrial businesses. 2011 was a pretty good year and even 2012 flash numbers beginning of the year say things are holding up. how good is good? our companies are well positioned. they're well managed so they're seeing some growth that's well above those numbers. our revenue growth was 8% to 10%. it's going to be a pretty good year in the united states. our eurozone commitments, our companies are holding up well. it's hard to be too bullish, though, in europe and there's

enough anxiety in the banking system that would caution that but i actually think we're going to have a decent year. >> i was going to say you have been here for a couple of days, taken the pulse of the group. we just heard this morning some positive news potentially on greece in terms of a private sector solution, at least people are talking about that. they've been talking about it before. do you think we'll see a solution and how is that impacting the way you are investing in europe right now? is. >> it's probably too early to respond to the latest settlement talks but i do think we're moving on to a solution and probably more importantly the ecb is flooding of liquidity across the eurozone. banks really do give us all an opportunity to create better solutions. there's some time. we have -- i don't want to say a couple of years, the markets are waiting, the people and all of these countries are wait to go see some action, but there's a little bit of time and compared to last year words like vertigo or imbalance or fear, that's not what you hear this year.

there's caution. that's always appropriate in this environment. there's a little less swagger, certainly, than a couple years a ago. but there's the base of i call burgeoning cautious optimism and that feels good. >> joe and becky were just talking about the latest debate, the republican debate. one of the issues that keeps coming up and we've had a number of your colleagues, if you will, and peers in the industry on the broadcast this week, private equity, in focus. has it impacted your business at all? do you have to have conversations now with your lps, with all of this focus on romney, private equity, carried interest? how much time are you spending on this? >> well, not as much as you might expect. i have to have conversations with my mother, why those people are saying bad things about private equity, i thought you were in an honorable profession. i said, just tell her i'm a dentist and then we don't have to talk about it, but i'll be serious. i think it's just blown out of proportion as things tend to be in a political season. i don't think it will have

long-term implications for the industry. you have to remember this industry has been around for a long time. our firm started 32 years ago. we manage money for state and local pension funds, for sovereign wealth funds. more than $250 billion being managed for the benefit of retirees through the pension system. those things will all balance out. >> on the show from ontario teachers the biggest pension fund in canada and he was positive about private equity. it's hard to find a u.s.-based american pension fund manager to come out as a spokesman in support of the private equity industry right now. why is that? >> i think not just on that issue but many other issues. most pension funds don't view themselves as participate apts in the political debate and i think there's a natural reluctance to get involved with what looks like largely partisan engagement. so i'm not surprised by that. the more important thing is to look at the relative allocations of how people are actually looking at the asset class and i

think most pension funds are always looking for the best managers. they're not retreating. if you look at how much they have to earn to be able to fulfill the obligations of all of their constituents. they need private equity. alternative investments, go where the best returns are and, unfortunately, they're comfortable not only with returns but with the social profile with the industry, with the employment, with the innovation, with the productivity. there are sinners and saints everywhere but to castigate an entirp industry i think is probably misguided. >> thank you so much. joe, do you have a question? am i just supposed to send it back to you? >> i think we've -- i would always like to talk to don. hopefully, like i said, he won't be a stranger here when you guys get back on u.s. soil, but we have to go somewhere. i don't know, to this new nbc 0/"wall street journal" poll, andrew, which is, i don't know.

either in trade is wrong or, harwood, it's already so old, our chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us now from new york with the details. i look at intrade every day and i do see some of the polls but this remind me, this looks like a snapshot from a week ago to me, john. >> reporter: it's a snapshot from a couple days ago and what happens is this is a national poll but the polls you see out of florida showing mitt romney having stopped newt gingrich's momentum and maybe having a slight lead right now reflect the impact of the very focused television ad campaign that floridians are seeing right now and mitt romney is outspebd spending newt gingrich and the super pac is outspending the super pac. >> john, the number you saw 86%, that's not florida. that's to be the nominee. >> reporter: i'm sorry. what's the question? >> i said that 86% we just put up for in trade was not florida, that's to be the republican

nominee. >> reporter: right. i think he's going to be the republican nominee, too. >> well, we were right all along. >> reporter: well, we will see. we have a few contests to play out. i've been wrong so often in this campaign cycle so far that i wouldn't say anything confidently but i do think that having moved from south carolina, which was a perfect little laboratory for what newt gingrich was trying to do when he did have if not as much money as romney, sufficient money to get his message out, florida is a much bigger playing field, one less conservative, less evangelical, less pro-life, less all the things that boosted gingrich in south carolina. and i think we're seeing the forces of gravity bring him down. the other factor, of course, and we saw this in the debate, newt gingrich doesn't always do so well when he's on top. we saw in the debate a couple days ago he shifted to cruising speed. he wasn't really going after mitt and last night mitt was focused on the attack.

>> here's the narrative. it's playing out just like we said. romney, he's sort of rope-a-dope. he's the nominee. he's moving along, running a general campaign. his defense of private equity and his wealth and his taxes aren't quite up to speed. he gets attacked by one of his own, by gingrich. suddenly he toughens up. he becomes the nominee more people are looking for. the narrative is playing out. if toughens him up, makes him stronger. that's the narrative -- >> although the interesting thing from the poll i thought, john, when you dig deeper to find true conservatives, newt gingrich came out with much higher numbers on the national poll. >> i don't know what true conservative means. >> those who call themselves liberal or more moderate -- liberal or more moderate republicans, newt -- i'm sorry, romney resonates with much more. and when you put them up head-to-head -- john, why don't

you throw out the numbers with this. if you put newt head-to-head versus president obama or mitt romney head-to-head versus president obama the numbers show that mitt does much better. >> reporter: it shows that romney is correct in arguing that he's more electable. he's six points down, gingrich, is down well into the double digits. we had an over sample of republicans in this poll and what it said was that republicans -- you ask what's more important, someone who is ele electable, someone who agrees with you on the issues, more said agrees with you on the issue and they think gingrich agrees with them. that explains the rise. it doesn't mean he will stay on top. >> they perceive him to be more conservative but the more times he starts disparaging wealth or disparaging a 15% tax rate that is within the law, disparaging an investment into goldman sachs as if goldman sachs was deliberately trying to bring down the housing industry, these are all, like stuff i've seen in

revisionist history for what happened in the financial crisis used by the far left, used by the moveon.org but not newt gingrich. if conservatives suddenly are anti-wealth, anti-capitalism, anti-p/e, free markets, fine. if not, they're not going to buy into this. >> reporter: we also saw in the poll that the romney business experience was a mild negative among republican voters but the gingrich marriage stuff very large negative. >> i would rather defend giving $3 million in taxes and $3 million to charity than that whole marriage deal and fannie and freddie and everything else. >> reporter: that is despicable you would go on about that, joe. >> that was romney's line last night where he kind of called him out and said that's despicab despicable. it was a different romney and gingrich this in the debate, john. >> i think, and we've talked about it, romney was too center,

running toochl of a general campaign and he seemed -- there have been times he's been a little bit hesitant to embrace the -- >> not last night he wasn't. >> in the past, though, he was hesitant to defend private equity. he was hesitant to be a one percenter. >> reporter: hesitant to buy into his own attacks on the other side. you saw a real determination to hit gingrich, keep hitting him, not let him get up off the mat. we hadn't seen that in previous debates. >> no, we haven't. >> he has to run on what he is. i saw him six months ago say if you want to elect someone who grew up poor, i'm not your guy. he's addressed these things. >> reporter: definitely not. >> he's addressed these things -- a lot of these things already and now he should run on what his ability to manage is. managing at bain, managing the olympics, managing here. because if you look, john, there's another piece today about the -- some of the steps that were done that may have hurt -- we should be doing 7%

gdp or we have in the past. maybe this recession is different. but as jamie dimon said yesterday, there are things we've done in the last two years that have shot ourselves in the foot trying to emerge from this recession. >> this recession is different. they are deleveraging. >> reporter: the word manage certificate a bit of a double-edged sword because to some conservatives that sounds like a timid tinkerer with the status quo. all this stuff about fundamental change and grandiose thoughts. gingrich is a little bit out of control sometimes. but that taps the feeling of a lot of republicans especially the tea party that we need to turn over the whole table. >> gingrich stands up for himself and that's what romney is going to do, i think, and no more mister -- take the gloves off. you are what you are. toent don't be embarrassed and run on your strengths and that's what gingrich has done. gingrich can turn the three wives into somehow -- the way he defends that he gets points.

i mean, i can defend p/e better than three wives. >> reporter: last night i did the colbert report and we had a discussion about whether or not all this three wives stuff reflects an underlying sort of visceral attraction that people have to gingrich. maybe becky can speak to that. >> visceral attraction? >> reporter: yes. >> might be the hair, john. >> reporter: not there? >> that's what you have going for you, that maturity. >> reporter: well, i don't know. i was on with david cassidy from "the par trimming family." >> my gosh. >> i know david. >> who was the -- >> was he wearing a hat? >> reporter: he was not wearing a hat but, you know, if there's any guy who was a young person in the late '60s, early '70s who saw what david cassidy was going through being on the covers of all the teen magazines, girls lusting after him, i was kind of jealous of him when i was hanging out last night. >> really?

>> are you kidding me? have you ever met a teenaged boy who did not want girls lusting after him? that was his life. >> yeah, but -- >> i just didn't see him. >> i knew him from the "teen beat" days. >> in his presence at golf tournaments, a nice guy. the lake tahoe -- >> he's got nothing on you, john. you're good. you're good to go. >> don't wore canny about it, john. thank you. it's good to see you. it was a long talk about a lot of things. i think we didn't need to go into the numbers again. we had already done it. >> we are going to talk to john again but, that's right, he was on "the colbert report." we have to check that out. karen tso is standing by. good morning. good morning, becky. we are seeing fairly cautious day of trade here in europe but we did see a bit of a bit on these markets on the back of that key davos debate as germany, france, spain economy and finance ministers along with

the european monetary affairs commissioner olli rehn were talking about how to solve the european crisis so the markets were trading weaker and the ftse 100 was down about 0.3% before the debate so you can see it's trimming its losses. the german market has been solid rising about 0.3%. selling in some of the major banks in france is keeping the market cap. the cac is in flat territory. what is worth focusing on in italy today is debt markets. we've seen some improvement in the ten-year yield but short-term borrowing costs, a six-month auction today, saw the yield below 2%. just a month ago the yield was 3.25%. we are seeing some improvement in the davos debate. reference to the ltro, the extra liquidity program helping out yields and this is showing some improvement on the spanish markets as well. the yield at 5% got down to about 4.78% earlier in the

session. portuguese markets a little bit trapped on the back of these psi talks in greece. the market looking into a litmus test but bonds are improving today as well. take a look at the euro because this is where we saw action on the back of the davos debate looking a little bit range early on, not much momentum. gone up to the 3 is.50 handle. what we're looking at now is what happens out of your side, guys, and that early advanced estimate of gdp could create a further risk appetite and push euro/dollar further in this session. back to you. >> karen, thank you very, very much. when we come back, we'll talk about why twitter is restricting user content in some countries and how some of the twitter are already finding ways to get around this. and then later on "squawk" the u.s. postmaster general will be responding to a heated conversation we had with lawmakers on capitol hill earlier this week about the future of the post office. that segment has sparked quite a deal of debate and passionate views on how, where, and when you get mail and what taxpayers

should be spop for. this morning we are asking for your personal stories and your opinions about this. you can tell us about what you feel about the post office in your town, whether you'd be willing to go without saturday delivery. it's a big debate taking place in the nation. weigh want to hear from you, too. e-mail us. we'll read some of your stories on air later this morning. right now, though, as we head to a break, check out the global market headlines. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future.

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welcome back, everyone. u.s. equity futures this hour up by about 25 points. again yesterday the dow was down by about 22. we need 70 points for the dow to be sitting at a new high. s&p futures are up over three points and the nasdaq close to ten. twitter announcing that it will begin restricting tweets in specific countries. up to this point the company had to remove a tweet from its global network if it received a takedown request from its government but now it will be able to selectively block a tweet from appearing to one country.

this moves raises questions about how the social media platform will handle issues of free speech as it expands its global user base. people will be looking back to where twitter played a role in the arab spring. if the tweets aren't getting out everywhere. i did see some people tweeting about how to get around the restrictio restrictions, too. there was a guy last night made its top tweets -- >> have you tweeted this morn g morning? >> i just opened up twitter and itch not tweeted. i'll tweet right now. >> what are you going to say? >> i don't know. what should i -- >> i don't know. i don't know what people do. >> last night i was tweeting about the debate. >> you were? >> yeah, just what happened. >> so what do we find 0 out -- do we know that's true? >> no. >> we don't? >> no. >> do we know when that poll was conducted? >> i have to read the fine print myself. >> what's the date today? is it the 27th? >> the 27th. >> and when was it supposed --

>> i think it was the 22nd through the 24th. >> they led "the journal." coming up, why european leaders are sounding more upbeat this morning. first as we head to break a look at yesterday's winners and losers. >> that was wonderful. bravo. i loved that. >> it was great. >> well, it was pretty good. >> well, it wasn't bad. >> there were parts that weren't very good. >> do have been better. the the total debt of greece is like $400 billion. >> and the impact on u.s. banks if it happens? >> almost zero. >> you believe that? >> the greek default is almost zero. >> nobody seems to understand that last month a half trillion euros went in to save the banking system of europe. >> it's the best quarter since 1947. >> we're going to take our outlook up again next year, top line 17% and our profit number up 25%.

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making headlines, some upbeat comments on greece coming out of davos this morning. here's the european commissioner, this is olli rehn of the eu. >> we are just about to close a deal on private sector involvement between the greek government and the private creditor community.

if not today maybe over the weekend. >> the euro has had a -- look at the far right side of that. remember we were at 1.26. all the way back to 1.315. >> it's amazing. >> it is. that is a snap back. a lot of people lost a lot of money there. >> when we come back we'd like to hear from you. if you have comments or questions about anything we've been talking about here this morning on "squawk" e-mail us. don't forget we want to hear your stories about whether you think the post office should be bailed out, should we continue, do you like getting mail on saturdays? do you like having a post office in your hometown? and what do you think about it as a taxpayer as well. >> isn't barron's saturday delivery? >> and it's mail. >> i said the market would go down because allen wouldn't be able to build the wall of worry,

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too. we'll give you real names. >> real names. plus, boone pickens joins us to talk about everything from nat gas prices to the pipeline. keystone.

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and still pay the mid-size price. i deserve this. [ male announcer ] you do, business pro. you do. go national. go like a pro. the total debt of greece is like $400 billion. >> and the impact on u.s. banks if it happens? >> almost zero. the direct impact of a greek default is almost zero. nobody seems to understand that last month a half trillion y euros. >> we will take our look top line, 17% and our profit number up. >> cnbc, company talize on it. welcome back, everybody. joining us live this morning is boone pickens. we want to welcome to you the program. you have quite a bit of news

you're ready to to talk about today. you go back and it's been three and a half years since you first announced the pickens plan here on "squawk box," and i know you've seen some accomplishments in recent days. do you want to tell us about how you're feeling right now? >> yeah, i feel pretty good about it. on one side i feel good because we've got -- it looks like we've gotten some real movement but on the other side you have to think boone is a pretty poor salesman, it took three and a half years to explain a good idea. >> we should mention what happened. president obama yesterday unveiled a series of new energy initiatives and many sounded like they came straight from the pickens plan as a playbook. >> well, i agree they did. we have to cut down on imports from the mideast, one. that was right on the front end of our deal. he also even mentioned renewables. we did that, too. but we said get your own

resources. honestly if we don't get our own resources we have to be really stupid people. and here you are with a model of this. when you switch, talking about heavy duty trucks and i want to move off diesel and on to natural gas. that's what's happening right now. one other point, we did this back in '72. >> you have talked this week about some of the companies starting to shut until oil. >> did he say oil or natural gas? >> i'm sorry, natural gas. what's that going to do if prices come back and come back higher? >> well, they probably will, becky. oil to gas is 6-1 and now 40-1.

if you move back up to $6 on natural gas you can start to do wind again. >> you know, boone, you're very tactful a lot of times. you never really -- i think it's wisdom which comes from experience. but you say we've got to get our own resources. we know that. but the administration for quite a while, they had to be renewable. they had to be these green things like wind or solar or biofuels and there was an actual -- i think a proclivity not to build infrastructure for hydro carbon. and i think that now because it's economically not possible with $2 natural gas to replace it with something that costs $15 for bp. now they're finally coming -- now they're finally getting religion. but am i wrong on this? both sides have always wanted to get on our own domestic

resources here but the problem was, we couldn't do it if it was hydro carbon. >> what could i say? >> sometimes you don't say things because they might get mad at you and won't do the pickens plan. >> no, that's not true. i've even gone so far to say when these chemical guys, they don't want you to have natural gas for transportation fuel because they want dirt cheap natural gas because they have the largest margins they've ever had in the history of the business. everybody has a horse in the race. >> no, i was in it for one reason, that we're absolute fools. >> how do you explain the keystone deal then because this is not from the administration

but from the hard core environmentalists say it's insane to spend any more money on infrastructure for hydro carbons or dirty oil. that's what they say. don't build any more. we have to move on at some point. let's bite the bullet now and not build any more infrastructure for oil or natural gas. that's what they say, boone. what do you say to that? >> how long do i have to answer the question? >> you have as long as you want. i don't believe they have it but 250 billion barrels. that oil is available to us. . if we are going to be saps and say we're in the going to build infrastructure, my first question is, okay, pal, you tell me what you're going to use in place of oil what is it?

wind and solar do not run automobiles. 70% of all the oil used every day goes to transportation fuel so they don't have an answer. harper of canada, he's from calgary. i used to live in it calgary. i know stephen, a good guy. he's a serious man. they give it full size and act like it's the canadians who are going to sit there and wait on us. harper is going west to bc out of there to china with it. and once it's gone, i'm telling you, it is gone. >> it's indefensible. >> are you on on wednesday? >> on where?

>> here. >> are you coming on here on wednesday? is that true? >> i don't know. you haven't invited me. >> oh, next wednesday. >> you didn't invite me until just about 30 minutes ago. >> we want you on again because, in fact, i gave you as much time as you want but we didn't have as much. i want to talk about this more and apparently you'll be on soon because you just basically said it. it's like an indefensible position. in terms of jobs and everything, even the unions want it to do it. it's an indefensible -- >> okay, do you want me it to respond? >> no, i want to you come on and we'll talk more about it. >> you're going to tell me you're cutting me off now. >> no, i don't want to. i didn't think we had to leave until 55. do we have to go? we have to go. yeah, we have to go. >> you have three minutes. >> no, no, no, we have to go now and then you're going to come back on wednesday hopefully. >> okay. well, whatever you want to do. but this is a huge deal for america. >> i know. >> the keystone pipeline is, the

fact that obama has now said natural gas should be used. my god, yes, it should be used. so anyway, well, america is seeing it for what it is and i'll tell you the democrats jumped out in front of the republicans on it. >> yeah. >> boone, i just want to congratulations on getting some of your plan picked up by the president and we'll talk about that next week, too, just to see where things stand and what has to happen next but this is a significant hurdle you've overcome. >> give me 30 seconds. >> okay. >> all right. it's happening in america because of the difference in the price of fuel so you're having, there's a big rollout next week by one of the biggest truck manufacturers, and this thing, you know, it's going to happen, the whole thing is going to happen. >> okay, we're going to talk more about that with you next week and we thank you for joining us. >> thanks. >> boone pickens, thanks. let's go on the global hunt

for yield. joining us right now is stuart reed, blackrock's director and portfolio director and member of of its global equity team. you see opportunities. let's start with what you see overseas. >> when we look to europe relative particularly to the u.s., what we're seeing is valuations pricing in some mid cycle slowdown and valuations, starting to widen out, the compression is not as great as it was so that gives us more stock in europe rather than the u.s. >> imperial tobacco and european telecomes are some of the areas you like? >> yeah, that's right. so look imperial tobacco, when you think about it on a three to five-year view or immediate ym term perspective, this is a

strong business, tobacco industry with excellent pricing power, you can debate the volume trends, but this is a business which has been hit on some short term concerns around what's happening to volumes in syria and some stocks around tax hikes but ultimately the business fundamentals haven't changed. the valuation hats gotten significantly cheaper over the last three months and we think this is great opportunity to hold the stock for the next three to five years. >> i know we had trouble trying to get your shot coming up. some of the names in the u.s. are kraft, pfizer, johnson & johnson. if you come back next week we'd love to have you back. >> no problem. >> stuart thank you. we appreciate your time today. slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] now there's a mileage card that offers special perks on united, like a free checked bag,

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earnings on parade. we have the latest numbers to keep you ahead of the game. >> the economy, jobs and fed policy. former governor olson hits the shall us. andrew is getting the biggest names in business at davos. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> hey joe, now it's your turn. ♪ a long time ago we used to be friends ♪ >> welcome to "squawk box," i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is in davos. in studio, we have former fed governor mark olson, currently chairman of reliant risk

advisers. numbers from procter & gamble. >> $1:10 for the dow component. estimate was $1.08 and a 57 cent number that has things in it for the core. why does it say -- this must be for the october quarter, sales rose 4% to $22.1. >> supposed to be $22.19. >> and what did i say, $22.1 so that's pretty close. then you look at things like net sales expected, growth is estimated to be in line with a year ago up 2% for the third quarter for the third quarter so this is the fiscal second quarter we're talking about, and then i saw some type of range, net sales are expected to

increase 3% to 4% in fiscal 2012. so it sounds like they are expecting some acceleration then, because for the third quarter, they're talking about 2%. >> they also talk about their organic growth which is important. organic growth is up in all six of their segments. >> and it's organic sales are expected to go 3% to 5% and this is a flag, i guess they mean for the whole year, the third own the fourth quarter. the shares are a little bit lower. we'll talk to john and see whether any of these are below what the company had been talked about, based on europe. >> let's look at ford's numbers. those are hitting the wires right now, too and phil lebeau is in dearborn, michigan, with the numbers. >> becky this is a miss for ford

in the fourth quarter, company reporting a profit of 21 cents per share with a street headline of 25. let's clarify something here, there is a one-time non-cash gain of $12.4 billion to a change in the tax valuation for the company, a non-cash gain. the revenues much stronger than expected coming in at $34.6 billion, about $2 billion more than the street expected. the pre-tax operating profit of $8.8 billion for last year, highest since '99, highest net at $20.2 billion since '98. alamo alley says the company is on check to achieve its goals. it has 41,000 employees, $6,200

for each lee. automotive debt down by $6 billion to $13.1 billion and the profit margin, 5.4% for 2011 versus 6.1% in 2010. guy the the reason that's crucial, north american profits will be 10% by mid decade, they'll have 9% overall for the company by mid decade and the reason they need to get there, look at the hyundais and the european competitors are up there at the 9%, 10% profit margin. again a loss or not a loss a miss compared to what the street was expecting, 20 cent profit for the fourth quarter. back to you. >> i know you're thinking this, phil, but i don't think you said it. a beat on revenue, miss on the bottom line. profit margins are not going to be as good. why? do they have to price it lower to compete or were input costs higher because of commodities? >> input costs.

commodity costs up $2.3 billion this year, that took 1% off the profit margins. you had $280 million that you paid to the uaw membership when they ratified the contract. you add that along with some exchange rates and look at the losses in europe, in asia-pacific due to the thai floods, a drop in profit in south america. when you look at overseas, ford versus domestically it's clear, overseas is where the drag is on this company. it is not a huge drag but it is the drag. >> did you expect me to ask that question? you're giving me something to talk to you about. that's how good you are. >> yeah, exactly. >> to make me feel good about myself. >> i'll give you the numbers and then go through all the reasons why. >> because when you see a five-cent miss on better than expected revenues it's like what's happening. >> you didn't put cost into specifically commodity. >> ford didn't have to lower,

there was not weak pricing to compete? >> no, no, in fact if you look at their pricing particularly in north america, it's up substanlsubstan substandi substandially. it's on the european and commodities side and asia-pacific and european losses. >> i was going to go to government motors and hard to compete with a nationalized company and i was ready to go there as you can imagine. >> i'll convey your thoughts although i think he knows them already. >> i think you're right. >> first on cnbc with reaction to procter & gamble results, the stock is down 80 cents, 90 cents. i don't see that as a revenue miss at $22 billion and the bottom line is two cents ahead.

you let us know if the organic growth rates are different than what you previously thought. is there anything disappointing in what you said about the outlook? >> the quarter we just completed was pretty much right in line, 4% organic sales growth, we grew in each of our reported segments for the second consecutive quarter and delivered earnings per share at $1.10, which compared to our guidance range of $1.05 to $1.10. we returned $2 billion of cash. there was double-dingi itdouble. by the end of our fiscal years in june those costs should be below a year ago and we've been able to take price so long those are two tailwinds into the second half which we're projecting to be a strong half. organic sales growth of 4% to 5% so some acceleration and earnings per share growth of 4%

to 9% within that operating earnings growth of 10% to 15%. those numbers are slightly lower than previous guidance reflecting the foreign exchange environment. >> purely currency. >> correct. >> what were you expecting, so the dollar has been stronger than you expected? >> particularly developing market currencies, whether it's the turkish lira or the brazilian reale have been sold. >> do you know how many tubes of crest? you come prepared to answer the questions. >> you finally got me, joe. >> jon, i thought by making a lot of the products in some of the local markets it got rid of some of the discrepancies and fluctuations you used to see with currency. >> it does in terms of the transaction impact of foreign exchange but translation

impact -- >> affects profits? >> correct. >> from what i can tell, i don't know why people would be disappointed in a currency headwind, when you mentioned a couple of actual fundamental tailwinds in termsz of costs going down and when you're raising organic, you said better organic sales growth than you previously thought. >> we said accelerating first half to second half, in terms of what we had said previously in organic sales a year, a range of three to six, we've tightened that slowly bringing up the low end andify end so no change to the midpoint. >> nothing negative. >> we try to figure out what's happening in not only the u.s. but the global economy and what you have been seeing at procter & gamble. what are you seeing here in europe and some of the developing markets as well? >> first, developing markets continue to be strong in terms of market growth and consumer

interest in our product cat g z categori categories. our business is growing. europe is a different story but not the disaster you sometimes hear about. the same number market growth in europe was about half a point in the last period is not strong but not awful either. >> jon, i'm looking at long-term chart, p&g has done pretty well. the shareholders haven't made much money in five years or so. your dividend at 3.2, how do you expect the dividend to increase? people are looking more and more at big stocks like p&g and if you can get yield in a zero interest environment until 2014 it's becoming more and more attractive. have you thought of stepping up the payout or just going to maintain what you've done and slow and steady rise? >> we've paid a dividend for over 120 consecutive yooers.

we've increased the dividend i think for 55 consecutive years and i can assure you if the 56 doesn't occur you'll be talking to somebody else so i would expect us to increase that dividend. >> but would you ever consider, do you care that the stock has not really done much in five years, five, six years? >> well, of course we'd like it to have done better but next october we'll celebrate our 175th anniversary. we think in long terms and ex-cute a strategy we believe will enable us to win for the long-term and if we do that the stock price will take care of itself. >> in this environment that we see, a 2% or 2.5% or maybe 3%, the rogue new normal, is procerr & gamble hiring anyone at this point, net positives or net negatives, domestically? >> we're hiring, we hired last year significant numbers and

we'll hire again this year significant numbers but trying to hold overall enrollment where we can build productivity. >> are you cautious, given the political backdrop, given the uncertainty about health care, things like that, that we hear all the time, would you characterize procter & gamble as concerned about the uncertainty that we see? >> i wouldn't characterize as concerned but i think certainly the consumers who buy our products, many of them are concerned and so more certainty on some of these items would certainly i think help our business. >> okay. never gone there with you before i don't think. we usually just do the nuts and bolts but a company as big as p&g you wonder whether it's the same story we hear from time to time. thanks for your time, jon. hope to see you next quarter for the details. >> thank you. >> our guest coast is mark olson, former fed governor now t

trelliant risk partners. does this fit in with the global economy? >> it does. first of all we're seeing some increase in employment but not a lot. when you look at the employment numbers you have to remember a couple of things. number one the unemployment rate drop from 9.4 to 8.5 but the participation rate is down. we've had 1.2 million more people working out of a smaller base. its he a nit's a numerator phenomena. the economy is improving but slowly. companies reporting solid earnings is typical. the strength comes from the developing markets, always concerned, still concerned about europe and a slowly increasing but only very slowly increasing u.s. market. >> mark's going to be with us for the rest of the program, our

guest host for the next two hours. if you have comments or questions about p&g, what's happening in the global economy or more on the united states post office, continue to send those in because we'll be visiting some of the stories in 45 minutes' time. e-mail us or follow us on twitter. still to come we'll talk taxes with former treasury official bruce bartlett and later we talk to aol and ceo tim armstrong. "squawk box" will be back. >> hey, becky and joe, next time you're in davos, get a beavertail. >> "squawk box" is coming right back at you, eh? and investment banking services.

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as the gop candidates battle it out, tax reform still remains one of the biggest issues on the table. can the candidates to what president obama hasn't done to this point or is this too tough for either side to take on, reinventing the tax reform wheel is a huge issue. joining us with more to talk about his new book is bruce bartlett, served as a treasury official under george h.b. bush the author of "the benefit and the burden: tax reform, why we need it and what it will take." a lot of people on both sides of the aisle are looking at it. do you think this is something that can be accomplished in the

next two years, looking at all the in-fighting and the back-fighting taking place in washington? >> two years is a pretty tough schedule baecause we haven't really even started the ball rolling yet. i was disappointed to hear president obama in his state of the union message going in the opposite direction of tax reform talking about new tax gimmicks for hiring veterans and clean energy and more subsidies for the manufacturing sector, things like that. but then yesterday, the white house came out and said that we're going to be putting forward a corporate tax reform, within the next proposal within the next week or two but didn't offer any details. so we're really just barely at the starting gate. >> bruce, i think it's hard to paint a side, one side with being obstructionist on another side because there are differing opinions on how we need to do this.

getting the two sides together is a challenge no matter who is running the show. >> the real problem between republicans and democrats is republicans are still talking about tax cuts whereas the idea of tax reform is you have to not just cut rates but get rid of some of the bad stuff that's in the tax code to raise taxes in some ways, to pay for tax cuts, and do this in a revenue neutral manner. >> right. >> but i think the overall goal is pretty much shared by both sides especially on the corporate side, everybody agrees, we need to reduce the statutory corporate tax rate from 35%, which is now among the highest in the world. >> nobody pays that rate. show me a corporation in the s&p 500 who paid 35% last year. >> effective rates vary a great deal, they depend on how much debt financing you have versus how much equity and how much of your profits are earned overseas, all of these things affect -- >> i can't name a single

company. i've been looking through companies in the dow and the s&p 500, and cannot name a single company that paid a 35% tax rate. >> in countries with 20%, how many pay 20%. there's deductions everywhere. >> we argue it's the highest tax rate in the world but nobody pays it because of the deductions. >> if it's 35 and people pay an average 25. if the nominal rate is 20 in other places they pay 10. >> i don't know the answer to that either. bruce, what is the problem in terms of, i mean how big of a problem do you think the lobbyists are as part of this, too? >> well, they can be your ally, depending on what it is you're trying to accomplish. certainly the lobbying community is very powerful and the tax lobbyists among the most highly paid of all lobbyists but some of the thing we want to do in any major tax reform we'll have some support from some

industries and the strick is to get them mobilized to counter those that will be trying to keep every special provision in the code that helps their industry and so on. >> bruce, i haven't read your book but read the summary, the underlying philosophies on which tax policy is built but i'd be interested in your take in the fact we've used tax policy over the years to provide incentives or disincentives to the marketplace. for a long time we awarded debt by allowing the reduction of debt for consumers and essentially punished or discouraged savings by taxing all savings. are we going to -- do you still see that continuing, where we'll be using the tax code to provide incentives and disincentives to the economy? >> we're never going to completely get rid of that but we can try to clear away some of the brush so that we can

accomplish something worthwhile such as cutting the corporate tax rate, but going after the deduction for debt is going to i think can only be dealt with if you're going to move to a really big tax reform such as integrating the corporate and individual tax systems completely together, so that you get rid of the double taxation of corporate profits. then you might be able to do something about the debt deduction. i don't think anybody's talking about anything quite that ambitious at this point. >> a lot of it is some of the stuff that simpson-bowles brought up, too. bruce would you say that was a good starting point? >> yes, i think the president missed the boat a year ago by not embracing simpson-bowles on the sax side and spending side and as a consequence he lost control of the entire debate for an entire year, and judging by his state of the union address, he's still not prepared to be

very bold in these areas, and i think that that's too bad, because there's a lot that could be accomplished, because i think in the tax reform area, perhaps much more so than the budget area, there's enough room for agreement that you can possibly look to the idea of getting a deal between the republicans and democrats on this issue, perhaps not on any other but maybe on this issue. >> bruce, thank you for joining us today. we really appreciate your time. again, bruce bartlett and the name of the book is "the benefit and the burden: tax reform, why we need it and what it will take." up next, phil lebeau with comments from alan mullaly on the quarterly results. and your tools of the trade, as we get you ready for the final trading day of the week. time for today's aflac trivia question. on this day in 1985, what song

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i'm andrew sorkin live in

davos. breaking news out of davos, some european finance ministers saying we might have a deal, just days away, if not today, on a deal between the greek government and its private creditors to actually get something together. this would be a huge move and we're starting to see both the european markets react to this positively. we're also seeing the euro reacting quite positively to the news as well. i want to you listen if you could to ali wren from the european commission on whether this deal is going to get done in the next couple of days. take a listen. >> we are just about to close a deal on a private sector between the greek government and private creditor community, if not today, maybe over the weekend. >> of course, you know, they've said this before, there should be a note of caution here, i've talked to a number of other

people still worried this could get pushed further out. one of the other big issues that's being discussed here this morning is the fire wall, what kind of fire wall and how high is it ultimately going to be? the number being talked about now, they're going to need to get to somewhere over 700 billion euros. tim geithner talking this morning, take a listen to this. >> our view is that the only way europe's going to be successful in holding this together making it work in the long run is for them to build a stronger firewall, it's a comprehensive strategy and that will require a bigger commitment of resources and i think that my sense the europeans recognize that. >> so a bit of optimism here in davos. i told you, joe and becky, when i got here, we were pessimistic but quickly when you started talking to the europeans they

did feel things were closer. as i mentioned earlier we felt we've been close before and haven't gotten. there are serious concerns and christine lagarde made mention that greece has not reached and met the requirements and so the big question is can they grow out of this and will they reach some of the requirements? we have to keep an eye on that. for now back to you guys. we have great guests later in the broadcast and i'll be seeing you in a moment. >> andrew, see you in a couple of moments. the fur is going on in that hood. >> no, different jacket. i like that jacket, i meant to tell you earlier. >> thank you, becky. this is a different jacket. we had some tweeters ask me about it. >> some of our viewers have written in, andrew, like the first day you were there, all your guests were like in regular suit and normal business, like jacket and you looked like an eskimo. >> he's out there for three hours, not five minutes. >> they come out for five minutes, sort of made them look like they were able to, we

wondered whether you were in the studio and had a green screen behind you and -- >> he's doing the hard work. >> it's real. it's real. >> he's doing the hard work and it's cold. >> go like that. >> three hours in the cold is tough. >> you want me to -- it's real, it's real joe. we could put one behind you that's not real. we are owe an a hill. jason is going to be making or i thought he was throwing a snowball at me. i don't know if that went across the camera there. jason may be throwing another snowball at me now but for now, what are you about to do, jason? it's getting worse over here. >> keep going. >> back to you guys. >> did you read that "journal" piece? read, really read. >> i know. >> i want you to be, andrew, please.

i don't want you rolling your eyes at me any more like i'm an evolution denying anti-scientist or something. read that article. thank you. >> given how close it is here, i believe you, joe, for today i will believe you. >> that is how your side explains a lot of it, they do. take a look, thanks, andrew. take a look at the bid/ask on ford. phil lebeau just got off the phone with the ceo alan mulally, down a little bit, phil but it doesn't look that off. it's been building, consolidating after it ran up two years ago or whenever it was to 18. it's been treading water ever since. >> and they got hammered last year along with the rest of the auto sector. i asked alan mulally what was behind the miss. some say a nickel miss is substantial. he said europe moved to a lost position in the last two months of the year, that was a huge factor along with rising

commodity costs coming in stronger than expected for the year, commodity costs were up $2.3 billion. you can't blame all of the loss on rising commodity costs but certainly europe and commodity costs were two factors. he believes they were shifting production to eastern europe, russia, making moves to improve that situation. he says "i think we're in a good position as the world recovers financially" and the one thing people are going to be focused on wall street are the profit margin. ford coming in at 5.4% profit margins, alan mullally tells me ford will expand profit margin this is year. i said you still think you can hit 10% profit margins in north america by 2015 he said absolutely. a first on cnbc interview with mr. mulally coming up today, the "fast money" halftime report, 12:10, first on cnbc and comments also from the analysts conference call later on this morning. guys back to you. >> so they have, there's some

new car coming, the fusion, you have seen something really excited? >> i have seen the fusion absolutely, impressive. >> it looks like a really -- doesn't look like -- i shouldn't say that but looks like a really nice sedan. >> i'm sure they wanted to hear you say that. >> doesn't look like a ford. you know what i mean. i mean that's pretty -- >> and joe, that's a big reason why they've been able to boost profit per vehicle in north america. they're freshening the product and what they're coming out with has been met with positive reviews and the sales improved. will they grow market share next year? it's tough, they're at 16.5%. in the guidance for next year they're saying it's going to be about the same. >> thanks, phil. see you later. >> you bet. get to our trading block, following the bond market what happened? oh, yeah. >> snowballs, look where you.

>> see, anybody can do that. we still don't know. >> shoo! you guys are both in davos together. >> i'm watching. this is great. this is great. >> i don't need a big old jacket cause -- >> right. [ wind whistling ] >> pretty easy to do, andrew. >> i'm going to get you some real snowballs in a moment, we'll have jason throw some at you, maybe it's not really working. >> following me -- >> that was good. >> following the bond market, kevin giddis of morgan keegan and brian dough lon and peter yostro are tracking futures at the cma. we were just talking currencies, brian, in terms of procter & gamb gamble. i thought 1.30 would be the new resistance for the euro.

it wasn't. next stop where? >> joe, you're very right, close, 1.32, 1.32.5 is the tipping point. the dollar is holding in, the euro teams to be level off. if we get the 1.325 there's more upside. this is about the quantitative easing, some stabilization in the european credit markets, a little bit of a feel good attitude but only a headline away from another stampede back into the dollar. >> really? i mean are you predicting that or saying it depends on the headline? >> i think there will be, this is all just a waiting game, a buying of time. the europeans are going to get this greek debt deal done. it's not going to be pretty but ultimately be done but already portugal is lining up to be the next target, their yields all-time highs over 13% so the market is quickly shifting focus to another peripheral country and ult patly what we're looking at is stagnating european economy, an ecb likely to be

cutting rates in the months ahead, all of this will ultimately limit the euro's gans gains. >> what's it worth? say the recent numbers we do better at 3% and europe goes into a little bit of a recess n recession, where should the euro be? >> the euro should be in the low 1.20s. that's where the europeans want it. they don't like it up here and want to see it over 1.35 again. >> kevin giddis, have you changed anything since that 2014 0% rate, any type of outlook for bonds anywhere on the zmurve. >> it's made it a little bit easier, joe to think about the short part of the curve, the rate volatility. you can take more risk up the curve so that would be two to seven years you could venture into a-rated corporate bonds, munis and things like that. you want to keep a safe haven bias but the fed saying late

2014, it doesn't mean at zero so as the conditions improve the fed can and will tighten but the short part of the curve is pretty safe bet for risk now. >> and how is my 30% gain in the s&p prediction looking for the s&p this year? >> it's pretty good, joe. >> really? >> i wasn't aware of that prediction. i think it's being buoyed by the fed's moves, obviously. there's nowhere else to go. yesterday somebody said the fed kept the punch bowl at the party. i don't think that's the right analogy here. i think it's more like the fed's trying to drain the pond and if they do it enough they're hoping the fish are going to grow feet. is draconian what they're doing. >> it's happened before. >> i believe in that. >> weird growth went from pond to pond. and we did come out of the

water. >> it takes a lot of time. i don't know if we'll get it by 2014 even. things are still weak and we need to take away what the government is spending and the amount the debt is going up and lay that against gdp we're not growing that fast. europe is doing worse t we are so the dollar is probably going to benefit from that but stocks have had a hell of a run since the start of the year and now that the news is out and we know what the fed's up to, it would be pretty big expectation, stocks slipped back a little bit, consolidate, find their footing, we look at who are the next big companies to take advantage of these amazingly low rates, i don't think they're going to hire anybody, but we will see some stocks in the u.s. do pretty well because with interest rates this low, big companies especially ge for instance, they can usually make a profit. >> all right, thanks, e.s., kevin, brian, see you later. coming up from e-man to

snailman, the u.s. postal service is on the defensive, started a lot of this when we were down in "squawk in session." >> we've been hearing from our viewers and people have strong thoughts about what they'd like to see happen. >> we'll hear about its plan for reform and new legislation. up next we have aol's ceo tim armstrong joining us and he doesn't lie, so we'll see whether they're really outside, i'll ask his view on tech to jobs picture and global economy. "squawk box" will be right back. >> hey, becky and joe, next time you're in davos, get one of the beavertails straight from canada. >> "squawk box" is coming right back at cha, eh? st powerful mobile apps out there. i'm trading here every day. and i'm customizing everything. everything. from thought, to trade. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. i'm with scottrade. and seven dollar trades are just the start.

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back on. >> we're back live from davos here in switzerland. i want you to know, joe, i have a real snowball and i have the man of the hour, tim armstrong, the ceo of aol who you said, tell us the truth -- >> i don't think we're going to tell it, we'll go physical on

joe because joe needs some physicality here so -- >> that's a real -- >> i didn't see that. i didn't see that go anywhere or come down. >> you didn't see that? >> i didn't see anything there and i still have some snow in my yard back here. >> oh, come on. come on! >> first of all, joe, you'd love it over here because we've been on the davos diet, we've taken off, you've put on five pounds, i've taken off five pounds. >> you guys have been seeing these promos, these protos with beavertail, but there's a canadian product, fried dough, called beavertail. i probably shouldn't say that out loud. i've been eating that in the mornings. i'm going to get in a lot of trouble probably for that. i don't have my iv in because we're getting a mixed minus. we have tim armstrong, want to talk a little bit about the economy and the advertising market. you came over here like me a

little pessimistic and getting optimistic. >> i've run into a lot of ceos, had some neatings with the government folks and people are more positive than i expected. the european economy needs to get through what we did last summer, the debt ceiling crisis. i saw laura desmond from star com who is a big media buyer. it's not like 008-2009 so i'd expect it may not be phenomenal growth but to grow. >> aol, you were holding a snowball, people talk about your business sometimes as two ice cubes, one that may be melting and one that you're trying to freeze as quickly as possible in this content business, meaning the pipe business, if you will or the business diminishing. people worry obviously about whether you're going to freeze this ice cube fast enough before the other one melts. >> right. >> can you speak to that? >> sure, taking a big step back, aol has 250 million global consumers on our properties, we do a couple billion dollars in

revenue, we're a big strong company. we get accused of having too bold of a strategy and for a company which is the worst merger in history, i'd rather having people say we're too bold. you see strong growth happening in the advertising segment, our future business, and we see strong investment in our properties we invested in. when we look pack at 2011 i hope we say aol took some market share out of the market, first time in many years so i'm working hard, the whole team is working hard, we have 5,000 great people on our mission to turn the company around but i wouldn't count us out and i would just say the bold strategy is not going to stop. >> i'm curious, when you look at the big technology players that are worth the real money these days, the facebooks, zynga, groupon, at some level they've been tech plays as opposed to

content plays. >> yep. >> how do you think about that? >> we're media and technology, and i believe something very firmly which is going to probably sound different from the companies, i believe consumers want a cure rated experience in the morning, when they get up throughout the day, someone visibly handing them information, same reason i watch "squawk box" and cnbc, i don't have time to look at a thousand pieces of information. i'm counting on to you curate the world. content becomes king because it's the curator of information. that information drives the economy and what drives the verticals that are in. >> tim armstrong live really from davos, this is not a fake green screen. >> go patriots for the super bowl. >> that's his view. back to you. >> is your ifp back in? >> now it's back in and i can hear you, yes, sir. >> all right, yeah, i look at,

you've come a long way. can you ever imagine "the new york times" you making any reference to the beavertail, can you imagine doing that with jill abramson around or any of your old bosses? >> she's out here in davos. i'm hoping she's not watching, that's pretty much my feeling. >> she didn't bring out the best in him. >> so soft. >> jason wanted me to eat the beaver ta beavertail on the air. >> i was going to ask you -- >> andrew is all the way in on davos, all the way in. >> you are. you've come a long way. i was goinging to ask you whether sean parker had tried any of it. but your ifp was out. let's just go. when i get uncomfortable it's pretty bad and i figure a "new york times" guy would have cut this off a long time ago. anyway, becky, help us please. >> we're asking -- >> oh, they cut him off. the end.

>> he's gone right in the toilet. >> what can we do? what wican we do? congressman darrell issa reignited the debate over the post office. >> do we get there reducing retirements and finding a way to trim the workforce or wait for people to retire from an organization that has three full time employees that are 98 years old? >> postmaster general and ceo wants the chance to react to the comments. we'll give him the chance in a few minutes. if you have a comment or question about the postal service and how it should deal with the decline and usage of first class postage, tell us. we want to know all about it. we want to hear about what you think if they were to close your hometown post office. there are 120,000 jobs on the line as well. it is an entity that could be losing quite a bit of money if things continue the way they are. go ahead and write in. squawk@cnbc.com. "squawk box" will be right back.

>> hey, becky and joe, next time you're in davos, get one of these beavertails straight from canada. beavertails, beavertails, beavertails, beavertails, beavertails.

welcome back. our guest host is mark olson, former fed governor. this was a huge rweek for the fed. how do you come on the idea of more transparency and is it working? >> i think it's working. i think i'm not sure that it met

everybody's expectation, but i think it's classic chairman bernanke. what we're doing is providing more transparency, and we're identifying the central tendency of the fomc. there are different interpretations of what that means. some people are using that to presume they can draw a different yield curve which i don't think they can do. it is a transparency, a disclosure issue. what is it you know that the rest of us don't know and if i were so paraphrase, take it out of fed speak and put it in english, here it our best thinking, take it for what it's worth. >> removing some of the speak. >> to me i think that's what it's done and extended the time where they think rates will be held to roughly zero another year. >> so forever? >> what didn't get much attention and i'm very surprised, it didn't get much attention is the fact that we've

gone to inflation targeting in the middle of all of that discussion, we are now in inflation targeting, which has been a bernanke goal for ten years. >> mark is going to be with us for the next hour. we'll talk more about that. when we come right back the future of the post office. ta

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the u.s. postmaster general responding to congress. >> when you control the mail, you control information! >> he'll tell us his plan to save snail mail. >> your concern is the importance of getting your mail. >> yes. >> bills. >> yes, yes, yes. >> which fomc member has the most influence on the markets? we'll get an exclusive report from macro economic advisers, and breaking economic data. [ sirens ] fourth quarter gdp due at 8:30 eastern. >> hedge funds and high tech, the ceo of the largest hedge fund in the world and the largest investor of facebook. the third hour of "squawk box" begins live from davos right now. ♪ yes, wait a minute mr. postman, wait mr. postman ♪ ♪ please mr. postman look and

see ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kern kernen. andrew sorkin joins us live from the whorld economic forum in davos. what do you have coming up? >> we have a lot of fun coming up. ten minutes david mccormick, co-ceo of bridgewater associates. $120 billion under management and just returned 23% last year. we'll talk about that, what he sees going on in europe, and what he sees for the outlook for 2012 and then in the second half of the 8:00 hour we're going to have yuri milner, largest investor in facebook, the potential facebook ipo and has a big stake in groupon, zynga, twitter, he has his pulse on the new age of social tech and media. we'll bring that throughout the hour. >> thanks. in our headlines some key earnings reports, ford earned 20

cents a share, a nickel below estimates. procter & gamble fiscal second quarter profit of $1.10, two cents above expectations, stock is now almost back to -- cfo jon moeller telling us currency issues represent the company's primary profit headwind for the rest of the year. our top market story a first read on fourth quarter gdp, the report is due at 8:30 eastern, economists are looking for a growth rate of 3%, which would be up from the previous quarter's expansion rate of 1.8%. and eastman chemical is buying solutia in a deal valued at $27.65 a share and cash and stock. the total value $3.38 billion. the deal represents a 42% premium for solutia, maker of specialty chemicals and stub of

the big monsanto splitup from monsanto became an ag company. the future of thes postal service turned as a hot topic on capitol hill. darrell issa called for big changes to the post office earlier on "squawk." >> the biggest challenge there are about 660,000 workers in the post office. in the private sector there would be 400,000. it's not a debate about whether we need to get to the number. how do we get there, induce retirements or trim the workforce or wait for people to retire from an organization that has three full time employees that are 98 years old literally, not a talking point. we have a problem at the post office it can't seem to shrink on its own fast enough. the biggest problem is we're

paying people who we don't really need and not doing the reorganizations we should. >> joining us right now his reaction to chairman issa's comments is patrick donahoe, postmaster general of the united states. thanks for being with us today. >> good morning action becky. >> we know there is a problem in terms of how business is done these days. we realize that the percent of people who use first class postage has been dropping rapidly, i think since 2002006, about 25% has gob away, we expect another 25% to go away the next five years. the question is how do you deal with that? what's your plan, sir? >> that's the situation we have is unsustainable, like chairman issa said, we are in a situation where we're being hit by a number of things, the loss of volume, mainly due to bill payment online, that's dropped our volume in that area by 50% over the last ten years. that combined with the economic situation which has knocked a

lot of our direct mail out, has really put us in a tough situation. on top of that, we are responsible for prepaying retiree health benefits to the tune of $5.5 billion a year. the key thing for us is this. we've got a business plan to take $20 billion in operating expense out of this organization. we can do some things ourselves, some things we need through legislation. >> i know that part of the plan that's been put forth, i believe this is your plan put forth would slash about 10,000 jobs, close 252 of the facilities, close 3,658 post offices and that's the plan congress put a moratorium on. what is really happening between congress and the post office at this point? >> congress has asked us to put the brakes on for a few weeks and we were going to start rolling with this in the beginning of april. we've agreed to wait until the 15th of may to give everybody a chance to get a bill passed. we need this bill passed because

not only are we looking to reduce the network from a standpoint of a number of facilities, with he need to move from six-day to five-day delivery and we need to resolve health care issues. we have a proposal that would take our health care from a cost of $5.5 billion prefunding plus the ongoing cost and have about a $7 billion positive impact on our p&l. >> congress has put the brakes on this, if nothing else happens by may 15th you'll go ahead with this very plan? >> let's see what happens. we have bills in the house, bills in the senate, the administration has weighed in. we're looking to work with everybody very closely over the next couple weeks up there and see if we can push something through. >> sir, is this a game of chicken with congress at this point, though? obviously the congressional members overreacting to the idea of closing the u.s. post offices in their own backyard. nobody wants to see that happen.

>> it's not a game of chicken. what we're proposing is a responsible plan to address an unsustainable business situation. that's all this is, and it is, it's tough, because people take the postal service personally, which we're very happy with. the postal service is still a very important part of the american economy, and in society in general, but we're self-sustaining. we take no tax money and as this volume drops off like any other business, we've got to do the responsible thing and shrink down the infrastructure. >> the annual payments you make for health care for the current employees and retirees is $5.5 billion. >> it's more than that. >> more than $5.5 billion? what is it? >> i the $5.5 billion is to prefund retiring health benefits. we've prefunded $43 billion of health benefits fully paid. >> that's the part in question. >> that's right. >> democrats and other people said that should be allowed to drop down but even if that goes away that $5.5 billion payment

annually over the next ten years the post office is expected to lose $238 billion, so you're still talking about a $23 billion number annually that you have to deal with. >> we've addressed some of the issues but you're right. the 5.5 is not enough. we need to make all the changes in order to get that 20 billion out in operating expense yearly, that puts us on a sustainable path going forward. >> i want to tell you about a few of the viewer e-mails we've been getting in. a huge number of people written in, robert in california writes in the only reason the post office has bad numbers is congress saddled it with pension requirements that no one else has. it's something the government should do, educate us, pick up our garbage, keep us safe and deliver the male saturday. wayne writes n he worked for the u.s. postal service and retired for it and he can tell you there are good people working in the u.s. postal after but in the same light there are many that should be let go. the waste and poor management over the years is no surprise

and that's why they are where they are today. are both of these people right and wrong? >> well from a saturday delivery perspective, we're proposing eliminating delivery on saturday but keeping the post office open, it will save us $3 billion and we've lost the first class revenue, from an efficiency standpoint our people do a good job. we've reduced the head count in this organization from the year 2000 until now by 250,000 people with no structural change. we're still delivering six days a week. we still have 230,000 delivery routes plus 480 plants so the people have gotten more productive and service levels at all-time highs so we've done everything we can to right the situation ourselves. we need to address some big structural issues at this point >> what is your biggest complaint with what congressman issa told us the other day? >> i have no complaints. he has got a proposal on the table that gets us part of the way there.

the senate has a proposal that gets us part of the way there. we think we can work with everybody, and put a good plan together and move very quickly. every day we wait on this costs us millions and millions of dollars in this organization. >> general donahoe, your best guest come june of this year we will no longer see mail delivered to our homes saturday? >> we'll see. if we make any changes it probably won't be in effect until next year, probably january time frame, because what we want to do is any change like that, we've got to work with the mailers and give them a chance to adjust schedules, et cetera, et cetera, so we promised the mailing community the entire industry if we make a change we get plenty of notice but we have to move on that. >> sir i thank you very much for your time today. >> thank you. >> the postmaster general, patrick donahoe. we hope you'll keep us up to date on what's happening. it's something a lot of people care about in this case. >> i'll be more than happy to. coming up, david mccormick

of bridgewater associates, which has more than $120 billion in total assets, a great year last year, too, of this guy, he'll join us next from davos. "squawk box" will be right back. which federal reserve officials have the most influence on the markets? in the cnbc exclusive, macro economic advisers will tell us which fomc members move the markets most. fed chairman bernanke is a heavy favorite, but don't count out underdogs jim bullard, charles plosse reand richard fisher. we'll reveal the winner in the next half hour. "squawk box" will be right back. then the world changed... and the common sense of retirement planning became anything but common. fortunately, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now like so many days we've seen, 20 points up, yesterday again it finally closed a little bit lower but we haven't had any big volatile swings really so far this year. it's just been sort of a steady move, somewhere around 5% or so, so far. the world economic forum in davos, andrew is supposedly outside in cold weather in the

snow but he's with, joining -- >> it's real. it's real. >> but he's joined by another special guest. andrew. >> yes, thank you, joe. we have david mccormick who is not wearing a coat. it is cold. >> very cold. >> he looks really cold, andrew. he's shivering. open collar. he's wearing like penny loafers with no socks and you're there looking like an eskimo. >> exactly. david mccormick, co-ceo of bridgewater associates, just had a huge year as joe promoed before the break, up 23% and this is your first time doing a tv interview since you've been at bridgewater. we've had ray daly on the show. i want to talk about a job before you went to bridgewater, david worked for hank paulson at the treasury department during the financial crisis and i'm curious, when you see headlines come out these days around

europe, knowing what you know, knowing what you know will happen behind the scenes, do you look at the headlines and say you know what? back then we didn't tell people how bad it was because it was so much worse. do you look at the headlines and say it's so much worse than we can imagine? >> i don't really think that. the first thing that comes to my mind it's so much easier to be me now and observer on the sidelines trying to figure out what's going than to be the policymaker in the middle of it trying to make things happen and it's so much of a more difficult job because they have to understand the global economic machine. they have to figure out what's best to do about it and they have to make it happen where we just have to step back and try to understand how the economy is working and then determine what we think is going to happen. >> you made some big bets on u.s. treasuries, german bonds, japanese yen that really killed it in 2011, and i'm curious, as you head into 2012, if you could give us a sneak peek in terms of how you're thinking about some of those trades and other trades going forward.

>> i think that the big picture to step back and think about the whole thing, bridgewater has been enormously successful over 35 years because of the depth of the understanding of the global markets that builds you have year over year, continuous improvement, depth and exploring and trying to understand the world better. back in 2007, ray and the research team laid out de-leveragi de-leveraging, study the republic and the great depression and these things have happened over and over again you have an indebtedness that sovereigns can't service and a requirement to deal with that from a policymaking standpoint and that's essentially been the overarching theme that has driven how we thought about our positions over the last couple of years and that's a big part. >> if we were in the baseball game, what inning are we in, in the de-leveraging process? >> unfortunately the early inning. these things follow a consistent arc and first there's the notion of understanding, the

significance of the gap. so the sovereign debt gap, the balance sheets of banks and i think at davos over the last couple of days one of the things making me feel better i think there's a growing appreciation for the sides size of the gap and it's enormous. we're in a dire situation in terms of dealing with that and there's a certain way these play out every time. that level of insettedness has to be reduced. there's four ways, austerity, that doesn't get you far enough because ultimately if you reduce you curtail growth and a series of other policy things including printing money and ultimately printing money is part of the sloo us to getting out of here. >> what is your gamble in terms of all of those different pieces over the next year? >> essentially what you're seeing is this will play out over unfortunately a so or 15-year process. what we've seen over the last month is a pretty significant movement by the ecb with the establishment of the ltro and that's a step forward providing liquidity to banks and that creates space for policymakers

to ultimately make other choices but what it's going to require is some combination of austerity, some combination of defaults, some combination of continuing to print money and balancing those and some transfer from the rich countries to the poor countries, and balancing those in a way that doesn't lead to deflation or inflation and ultimately is as stable as possible but no matter what, that's painful. >> jamie dimon was on the broadcast two days ago and said he did not think greece was going to default. do you? >> first of all -- >> and does it matter? he said a, he didn't think it would, and that it didn't matter. >> so the first point is there's going to be a significant writedown on greek debt, voluntary or not voluntarily is not the big point. the second is its one page in the overall de-leveraging that will take place in europe. there's an enormous gap, greece is a tiny piece of it. those policy tools have to be

applied across europe. the other thing i think of as a policymaker in some ways we had it easier, you could walk across the street to the white house and call the key political leaders in congress and figure out what you're going to do. in europe a different government structure, a different mandate for the ecb, divergent economic interests so it's a tougher road to hoe. >> a bridgewater question, all of the questions about the culture of bridgewater. you took the job about two and a half years ago. when you heard all of the different things about, you know, it's a cult, it's a this, a that, everybody's honest and open and tell people they're bad, they're good. how did you think about that and is it what you thought now that you've been there for two and a half years? >> well it's more or less what i thought. what i ultimately believed then and believe now if you can start with a white sheet of paper and say you're going to work in a company where people are honest with each other, people hold each other to an incredibly high

standard, where they're transparent with what they're thinking. that's what we're trying to create at bridgewater and the closest thing to that i've encountered. it's hard and that creates a challenge because you're constantly asking the question, where are we relative to where we need to be in terms of excellence and not shying away from studying that gap but that's the critical component of the success so it's everything i'd hoped for. >> i think joe has a question. joe? >> i do. just listening to you talk, david, painting a scenario like that doesn't leave a whole lot of investment options, it doesn't seem like. i'm wondering since it doesn't seem like the bond market is the place to be and if we know for a fact we're going to be de-leveraging with the lower rates, can equities do well as an alternative? at least you have businesses growing. you at least have, you know, smart managers that are able to operate in that environment. would bridgewater go big into equities eventually because it's the only game in town or are we

left with just gold after what you described? >> well i think the big trend that we're seeing, joe, and the way that we think about investing and the way many of the investors we deal with are thinking about it is stepping back and fundamentally rethinking their asset allocation. they've been, many investors have been equity heavy over the last ten years, underperform relative to cash and now think being a portfolio much more diversified across different asset classes and a means for capturing the risk premium across those different asset classes. that's something that many people refer to as risk parity, and we see that, it's the way we think about investing, and we see that as a key theme across many of the biggest, most sophisticated investors in the world. >> you don't look -- >> dave mccormick? >> you don't look cold at all. we didn't ask you to open your collar. you came and you decided i'm going to be comfortable. your collar is open, i didn't hear you shiver. your teeth have not chattered.

i don't understand the coat still with andrew. do you? what's happening? >> i don't know, maybe it's a media guy thing or something. i'm not sure what's going on here. >> three hours out here. he's out here for five minutes. >> he looks totally comfortable to me, open collar, no socks. you don't have those shorts on, too, do you, like the sports coat with shorts? all right, we got to go. >> no shorts. i'm glad you're having a good time in davos there, joe. >> i'm getting egged on, all of this stuff, "keep it going with andrew" because everybody's coming -- is there a swimsuit model competition coming up, too, andrew? >> at the end of -- last time at the end of the broadcast i put my hat on, i could do the opposite but i this that i probably wouldn't be good for viewers. >> ooh. >> see you later, thanks. when we come back, the russian investor behind big bets on social media companies, we'll ask yuri milner about his

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coming up, we'll have breaking economic news, a few minutes away from fourth quarter gdp numbers. 3%, you think? as we head to break look at the dow futures. "squawk box" coming right back.

welcome back to "squawk

box." rick santelli in chicago, steve liesman geared up to argue with rick. rick the numbers please. >> reporter: and the number is 2.8, up 2.8, quarter over quarter, personal consumption up 2%, that's a bit light. the headline many were looking for 3. i wasn't but many were. up 0.4 on the price index. that's an improvement. i have to dig into that, that's about one-quarter of the expectations and if you look at the personal consumption expenditure quarter over quarter that was a bit hotter at 1.1 than expectations, but it's almost half of the 2.1, our last look, to summarize we still now haven't had a quarter with a three handle since the second quarter of 2010. this is a bit of a disappointment although listen, if three quarters ago we'd be happy to be at 2.8. normally the revisions are two more revisions in the fourth quarter number that keep it in the prominent category.

there may be revisions after that in the rear view mirror but they end tend to be lower. i'm not saying this will be revised lower but seems to be the trend the first blush lately is the best look. the market we're down three in the dow futures. we are up 12, so that makes sense, we have to see the full liquidity opening to make an assessment and the interest rate side it really isn't doing much. i think the bigger stories are better bill options in europe and the fact they finally coined a money machine that seems to be taking hold in europe, and this is going to be a big deal. long-term growth in the economies of europe probably is where the new debate comes in, but the eminent dangers according to the marketplace today outside of portugal seem to be reading better in front of weekend. usually friday reads are pretty good. back to you. >> for more on the data, steve liesman is with us as well as former fed governor mark olson

and i think you were actually on the air when i said that. >> i tweeted about it, joe. did i twitter? >> you tweeted. >> i tweeted earlier this morning that reading a lot of stuff it looked like the 3% was coming off for two particular reasons. one is that net trade, i don't know if it was a positive or negative but the numbers we got showed that it was swinging a little bit negative. i have to see what it is in here but also defense spending and if i was going to pick an argument with rick, which i'm not, i would say that this is a gdp number that missed for reasons rick would like. i'm looking at a huge decline, the states down minus 2.6, i don't know what that contribution to gdp is. my guess is it took off a hefty chunk. we know defense spending trailed off in the fourth quarter. rick is right to point out consumer spending at 2%, there

were hopes 2.3, or 2.4. and it looks like that particular miss was in services, just up 0.2. business investment also came off from a very strong 15.7 to just 1.7. i know some folks were in the upper single digits, eight or nine with equipment and software, structures down 7.2. one positive housing investment, 10.9 up from 1.3, maybe the best numbers we've seen in housing investments in quite a while. the story here is that a big part of this was going to add to growth, big swing to positive 56 from minus 2 billion on inventories and this gets at the debate which i thought was interesting, jamie dimon sees the makings of a sustainable recovery and ben bernanke says i'm not convinced and the reason

is because of final demand. you see 2% growth by the consumer and step down in business investment, you kind of get nervous about demand. >> if you look at the totality of final demand, yes, it's still a soft economy. what i take issue with is the fact that this is a miss. these are not corporate earnings, this is gdp. the market did but the government didn't for itself. when you have a miss with corporate earnings it's a company missing its own projection or expectations. i would take 2.8 relative to what's happened over the last several quarters. >> does it tell us things aren't improving as quickly as maybe we've been expecting? >> depends on whose expectations. the market's expectations, yes, but i don't think it is inconsistent with the fed's

expectations if you compare for example the manner in which they've defined the growth in the economy over the last several sessions this would be consistent with what i think the fed has anticipated. >> receisteve i will pick a fig with you now. i mentioned this earlier, many business leaders say they're being held back from the threat of new regulations and higher taxes and fear political gridlock can hamper the government. been hard to prove this but a recent study but professor stevens from the university of economy, and two other, a trio, apparently "the journal" proved the uncertainty over the past two years affected investment and they've gone back in history and found other areas where uncertainty has affected the recovery and mark olson says that's a fact. >> no doubt. >> but joe in your cable constructed worked are world -- >> i got an excuse out of this. i know you're going to say it's

not the first thing on the list. it's the second or third. >> so it's the second or third. joe profits are up year on year. >> greenspan also did. >> i have no doubt, joe. >> government activism -- >> are you rejecting that? >> i'm saying the difference between 7% which we got after reagan came in after that recession and 2% which is what we're getting now, i'm saying we have five points to work with so you use rhinehart and rogof for a point or two. why don't talk with john. >> there was no question, if you go back to 2003, we were coming out of the enron debacle and the worldcom debacle. we were getting ready to invade iraq. we invaded iraq. i'm not going to defend the invasion of iraq. what we did is we moved from a

time of certainty to uncertainty and nonmeasurability. >> sorkin i hope he's listening because every ceo that's on here these two guys gang up on and say you're wrong about why you're not hiring. >> that's not true. that's another cable construct, joe. >> no. >> that's another -- you had the guy on this morning procter & gamble said it's not bothering us but maybe it's some of our consumers. >> steve didn't do that, andrew did. >> every metric that matters to you. >> no. >> you talk and then you cut me off. you cut me off. >> gingrich or romney, the guy is ready to say something, no. >> you're out of time. >> let's get back to andrew. >> andrew is stand by at the

world economic forum. take it away, andrew. >> joe and becky i'm here with yuri milner, head of dsd, largest investor in facebook, groupon, zynga, i point out he's wearing a coat. it is cold out here. >> yes. >> they didn't believe me. at least i got something going here. i want to talk to you about facebook, there's on expectation, and we talked about that and the big valuation but i'm curious whether you think the companies you've been investing in can continue to grow with the pace that they have once they're being public or being private is better off? >> i think there's a time to be private and a time to be public and -- >> better for new terms of exiting. >> and i think that companies like facebook and groupon are basically transformational companies.

you don't come across them very often and i'm pretty sure they can continue to grow for a long time, even being public. >> and do you think we're in a bubble? in terms of the valuations? >> i don't think that we're in the bubble because the majority of all ipos in the last 12 months actually traded below the ipo price. so actually it is not the sign of a bubble. >> okay, now you have successfully invested in probably every major big sort of social media company or social big tech company out there right now. are there other companies you're going to find and one of the things interesting you don't do it early stage. once we sort of know they're on their way, we don't know how far along the way and i wonder this model you've created, you've nailed the big five, is there another five? >> well i think that i can make the following prediction, that in the next ten years, there

will be 25 companies with a market cap of over $25 billion in that space, consumer internet. >> and where do you get that in. >> there will be over 50 companies with a market cap over $10 billion. >> where do you come up with that math? >> in ten years we will see who was right. >> we'll have you come back on the broadcast for that. your criteria when you go and buy these companies, do you buy them early but not necessarily on day one. we've had others on the broadcast who say i only want to invest in a company where the ceo is under 25 years old and makes less than $100,000. you have a very different view on your criteria for what a hungry company looks like. >> i agree on the age issue. i would raise it a little bit. 25 is i think a bit too rough, and restrictive. but i disagree the founder has

to be hungry and misaligned with investors. investors are usually diversified but the founder has all eggs in one basket. >> you have a stake in second market, we put barry on the show personally have a stake. that business allowed people to get money out. have you sold into the second market before? >> no. you have not. >> we've been only buying so far. >> do you think that's helpful in that it gets people out, takes risk off the table but changes the incentives or no? >> i think it changes the risk profile for the founder so that i' hav've heard it again and ag the founder having the option to sell the whole business or to stay private for a long time, basically chose to sell the business because there was no private alternative. so in other words, i think that founders should be completely in

line with investors, they should take money off the table and continue to take risks. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> joe and becky back to you guys. >> thank you very much. we'll check back with you in a few minutes. when we come back, which fomc member has the most influence on the markets. if you think ben bernanke had the most influence on yield, you'd be wrong. we'll find out, next with the results of macro economic advisers, who actually moved the markets? it's a big award. [ thud ]

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welcome back, everybody. steve liesman is joining us with the cnbc exclusive, he's going to tell us which fomc member has the most influence when it comes to the markets >> becky we do it every year and it's fun and serious in the sense macro economic advisers does not a survey but a counting of looking at the movement in the two-year yield and the two hours before and after of fed beats on the markets on the policy and the most influential. it's a guide for investors, 17 guys talking, who do you listen to and how do you listen? joining me is the senior managing director at macro economic advisers. antunio thanks for joining us. >> glad to be here. >> we're not like the oscars, we get the most important award

first. this is the i moved markets award, do this ef thdo we have that? i like that trophy. last year it was bernanke. this year the winner is? no, they put the wrong graphic up. jim bullard, nice job, guys and why did you vote him for the markets? >> up canal reasons, he was the most prolific speaker last year. he gave the largest number of speeches last year so that's a big reason and he's an influential guy, came one great interesting ideas and the market paid attention. and he has a hawkish leaning. >> he tends to go against what we might have been expecting, when bullard comes on he surprises. >> he did a big thing here on "squawk box" where he came out with that paper with i created

the rationale for additional quantitative easing. who else, we have one more graphic the cumulative change for everybody and what's so interesting is how far down bernanke but there's bullard, cumulative 17 basis points. fisher and lockhart, and kacherlakot and plosser and evans at the bottom. moves the most per speech, this has on quite often, charlie plosser. >> we have another interesting detail, almost a virtual tie between plosser and bullard so bullard was really close but if you look like this measure, look who the three top contenders, plosser, bullard, placer.

>> the hawks are paying the most attention. >> exactly. >> and evans the first dove to appear and bernanke way down at 0.7 basis points. is it letting this happen? >> so a couple comments here. you mentioned evans. let me talk about evans first. there's one interesting pattern. it pays to dissent if you want the market attention. i'm not saying anybody dissents because they want market attention but the market pays attention. the market is like a good fight. they like a good fight, if you are strong enough about it to dissent, they will pay attention to it. >> let's move on to the next one, this in a funny way is probably the most important. it's the market neutrality award and the reason is not because they had no effect, but because their net effect positive and negative was zero so the reason why you want to follow this award, and we're going to get to the winner, last year president

rosengre from boston and this year dennis lockhart. >> the other reason why we do this, for the market neutrality was, this is -- we have fun when we do this and i am made fun of as well. someone says look you really shouldn't be doing this because you are encouraging people to move the markets because we like to think or fantasize that fomc participants are sitting at the edge of their seats who came up on the top of the board. we want to be reinforcing the fomc's message so that's the idea behind this one. president lockhart gave a large number of speeches last year and he did manage to be relatively mobile. >> if we could get to the chart on the wall, this is why how we know this is accurate here or i don't know if it's self-fulfilling but here is the thing. >> wait a second -- >> hawks are bullard,

>> bullard, plosse, fisher. they moved in a positive way. duds, evans, bernanke and -- >> lockhart manages to talk without ever saying anything? >> it's not quite that. add up positive and negatives. >> you can negate them. >> we were talking about tightening at the beginning of this year. my guess is lockhart made comments that would move the two 2-year higher. additional easing, lockhart would have changed. follow the market neutrality guide for the direction of the fomc. >> there are two types of speeches. speeching confirming the fomc message. shouldn't move the market that much. and there's a speech that's either trying to change the message or they are just disagreeing and expressing the dissent that they either did not express. those tend to move the market not always in a good way.

>> there are two things that needed to be said. you know this. if you're a fed governor, if you have a seat at the fomc table, it is not difficult to move the market. it is not a badge of honor internally if you have done that. my suggestion, ben bernanke, chairman bernanke is a baseball fan. what we ought to do is come up with a measure over replacement value. just like they to do for baseball players. anybody sitting at that table could move the market this much. what does a real contributor do in that same circumstance? you're a smart guy. certainly you and larry could come up with that i would think relatively easily. >> let's do this. could you put back that chart that showed the positives and the negatives? that's my favorite chart, actually. >> real quick. we got to wrap it up. >> so governors, they don't like to make waves. >> they don't make waves. >> if you look at all the measures there, usually the top ten, they're always -- governors

don't like to make waves in public. >> that's true. that is a discussion. let's leave it there. >> when i saw this exact discussion on regis and kelly last week. you should have seen kelly when she found out. she had no idea. the whole thing. they did this -- no, they actually didn't. this is the only show in the world that could have just done that. it is. >> absolutely. >> can you imagine? harvey levin and tmz? this would have been some big breaking news to see that. >> we have the smartest viewers. when we come back, we're going to have more from our guest host, mark olson. "squawk" will be back right after a quick break. optionsxpress, where you can trade your favorite products,

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coming up, we're going to get some final thoughts from our guest host today, mark olson. "squawk box" will be right back. monday on "kwauk box," it's the home stretch for the gop candidates in the florida primary. but before the polls open in the sunshine state, we have a huge line-up to break down the campaigns. our guest host is republican senator ron johnson. we'll talk to louisiana senator david vistter.

and we'll have a panel of campaign strategists to break down the race. it all starts at 6:00 a.m. eastern on monday. "squawk box" will be right back. s the sweet spot that powers sound decisions. duff & phelps financial advisory and investment banking services.  you know the good folks have asked yours truly to teach you about treating frequent heartburn. 'cause i know a thing or two about eatin'. if you're one of those folks who gets heartburn and then treats day after day...

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box," everyone. final thoughts from mark olson, former federal reserve governor. what's it like in washington? >> it's even crazier than normal. you talked before with the postmaster general who needs legislation within the next several months. my guess is it doesn't happen simply because nothing tends to happen in election year. but there's so many things that are -- that seem to be out of sync. you've got republicans attacking the capitalist system, free market system. you have democrats very concerned that they have a leader who may not be electable. you have republicans very scared it might be newt gingrich. i think it's a very unsettling time. >> mark thank you. back to davos, quickly andrew, thank you for a great week. we want to thank you properly. >> i got into my "squawk" outfit for you. i wanted you to know it was doable. i want to thank the whole crew here. everybody is