that's the life of the u.s. economy. >> it's an argument for simplifying the tax code, too. >> i'm going to keep this. >> taking it away from you and giving it to andrew because he's going to put it on. you can have the tie. >> ron, thanks for being here. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good monday morning. futures in the red this morning. looking to open down almost triple digits. a lot of the asian market, too, not responding, while there was a hope of a rate cut at the pboc and concerns over europe today, which we're going to talk about a lot this morning. >> on this monday morning you'll probably need coffee and a road

map. facebook speculation striking today ahead of that ipo. we have cheer operating office cheryl sandberg. >> the disagreements over budgets are fierce. >> goldman sachs cuts sits b of a rating to a neutral. >> and the s&p is approaching a very bullish technical signal. we're going to walk you through the famed golden cross and tell you what that usually means for the six months that follow. but we're going to -- i don't know, jim. europe's important but there's going to be so much coverage of facebook today. how are you going to digest all the discussion? >> first i think a lot of people at home will ask on twitter, was flooded this weekend, should i buy it. these are all about valuation. if facebook is valued at $7

billion, yes. if it becomes $100 billion, eight little more touchy. people is to understand this deal is somewhat akin to groupon from the point of view where you price it. could you have a bomb on your hand. procter & gamble does call ought facebook as a terrific way to advertise. says it's better bang for your buck. that tells me there are corporations use be facebook that haven't used other ways to be able to advertise. there's real momentum here. david, don't you think it work s s? >> yeah, i do think it work, absolutely. i've got sorkin in my ear talking to me about dafos. >> davos was last week. >> so last week. sandberg was there talking about all the jobs they created. i think we can listen to some of that, too, right? new company, only been around, what, seven years and already

thousands of jobs created and so many more by the companies that have been empowered by facebook as well. >> this is cheryl sandberg talking to one of ou producers in davos, i believe. >> i think it represents a company that can create jobs. we have 3,000 employees around the world, not very much. but the study in the last year say we've created more than 450,000 jobs just in europe and the u.s. and obviously much more around the world. >> 450,000, not bad. >> not bad at all. >> eight very big number. >> i hope that's true. again, facebook at the right price could be the deal of the century. when i mention that, think of google at the right price. comes in the 80s because they decided to break wall street. they were the first occupy wall street company, they decided to dismiss it.

at the same time that was a once in a lifetime thing. you've seen groupon bomb. facebook has to take heed of what's going wrong in the market and make money for and that is difficult to do. facebook was definitely by large, the front-runner there, 28.5% of display ad were facebook. yahoo! 11%. when you look at the impact it will have when it goes public in terms of demand, the ability to absorb shares -- >> this company has profits. it makes a huge amount of money. this is a different story from all others, other than perhaps

google. just the google quarter, you continue to come back to the fact that company has lost tremendous momentum. had is over like a nine-week period. a lot of things happened in the last four weeks of the world, 2012, from 2011 into 2012. a lot of it was europe and facebook doesn't seem to be as europe-centric. >> momentum can come back pretty quickly, we should point out. we've seen this a couple of times over the history of google where we get a bad quarter but ultimately it not followed up with another bad quarter. >> no, but you pointed out time and again that there is is a story where apple is taking business and that the android is not doing with well and android is the leg of growth that you need. >> on discussion on which bank gets to lead this, morgan and goldman. i heard andrew talking about the idea those banks may not know exactly who is the winner of

that contest yet. >> there are so many other banks scratching and clawing to make sure they are least a meaningful part of this. certainly the bragging rights, whether they be goldman's or morgan's are important is as are the lead that are going to be accrued to the lead underwriter of this deal. it will be interesting to see how they manage it. we've been talking about some of the other ipos. one of the components of those offerings or a key part of them was the lack of actual float. you had very few share issued. >> slimmer deals. >> and that is going to be a bit different, at least certainly in terms of the dollar value we'll get from facebook, at least $10 billion worth of stock. we'll see. the way that they dealt with the allocations, they haven't really dealt with this lockup issue, it would seem, the underwriters.

that's an interesting component in terms of the technical calls of getting it done, getting it into the market and having it maintained. >> facebook, from people i speak to, this is all anything we should be thinking about. facebook has captured the imagination of the nonwall streeter. sometimes we see this. we're going to talk to steve case. aol was like that. retail has been out of this market. this is is a deal that awakes retail. >> they also well aware of their institutional shareholder base, jim. what i hear from people who already own the shares and there are many of them out there who already have significant positions, even if the hedge fund community, they tell me that don't fail to appreciate that they have built a mechanism there, sheryl sandberg is one of them, a lot of professionals dealing with the real shareholder base there and appreciating them in a sense that we didn't see from perhaps

these other companies. >> why is she talking? why do you risk gun jumping here? >> she's just talking general. i mean -- >> the transcript of that interview is rather limited to job growth. >> and vague. it's pretty vague actually. >> she's saying nothing. as long as you say nothing, you can talk all you want. >> of course. to your point in terms of the retail investors, maybe they should take a tact like google then in terms of how they conduct their offering. if they really want to engage the retail investor and the facebook crowd, why not allow a tranche of the stock to be at o -- allocated directly. >> google completely hurt themselves, it was a trouble mispricing, the stock doubled quickly. i remember going on air saying this was doubled and doubled again. next thinged in the general

council's office saying how can you say that? i can i say that because it was mispriced. if you get shares for groupon, great, sell it in five days. >> five minutes. invoke steve miller's great edict, take the money and run. >> we'll see what happens if it comes together this week like we think it will. oour europe, we'll be keeping a close eye on some of these talks. how concerned are you about not greece but portugal? >> i think it's what makes the market go down and refuels the market and then the market goes up. you get to the precipice. we got to the precipice and they took action. this is merkel's philosophy,

which is brinking ship and you get there and solve it. it becomes time and again when people focus on. >> the importance about europe and the reason we're watching spreads with concern after day set new record is the notion that everybody's focused on greece. larry mcdonald put this very succinctly last week. there's a concern that there lab lack of will left over when eventually portugal needs some sort of a bailout. we're watching some of these leaders walk in for summit talks. >> this guy has a badge so he's got to be important, an all-access pass. favorite tweet of the day, guys, andy borrowitz, greece offers to pay back debt with giant horse. >> i like that. these are things where 11:00 saturday morning we thought we had a deal, 2:00 we didn't. these are distractions for people. we've been dealing with this

since the third week of 2011 and this market has been terrific. i'm going to call this a buying opportunity. not the first day, we've been up forever. we're overbooked. people have to recognize this market has changed. it's a different coloration. it is building the time of tom foolery of europe because people recognize merkel comes back and solves it and merkel needs to have austerity. >> so you think after greece is done, if portugal goes to the brink, there will still be political will to give portugal a bailout and all the other countries that may or may not fall out? >> i think so. i'm going to call them a head fake because i think 2012 is the year where we focus on the united states. go through all the quarters, united states is on the term. we see two takeovers. pep boys is really very problematic company and small but the thompson and bets, it's a really sign.

>> abb of course coming over, using that nice currency, $4 deal, 3.9 billion, 24% premium, in line with a lot of the multiples according to the analysts we've seen with similar transaction, maybe speaking to the fact they do see things starting to pick up here. >> it's nonresidential construction. cooper with just a gigantic quarter. these are the towers. you ever see those big towers on the side of the road like this. that's them. that's them. it's a great company. it hasn't been able to move like a lot of great companies, hasn't been a lot of nonresidence construction. caterpillar is talking about no nonresidential for eight years. the euro is weak. i think this is a trend setting

deal, people are recognizing nonresidential construction coming back. >> if you think 2012 is the year we focus on the u.s. and there's a turns does this downgrade of bank of america mean certainly other than excuse risk at bank of america? >> i think it's execution risk of a bank of america. there's a lot of down and upgrades predicated on companies that have moved too much in 2012. so so what, does it go to 6.5? when goldman sachs was down graded, it recovered quickly. the redemption in the bank stogs are over. we talk about facebook, talk about abb. >> i'd like to come back to europe if i can for a minute. you do seem to be sticking to this theme that's going to be a bifurcation this year. if we see portugal hit the skid,

which may seem to be likely, don't you think our market as it is today is going to start to suffer again or do you believe we can keep the stiff arm there? i know the italians sold 7 billion worth of euros today and -- >> david, that's the third largest bond market in the world. we're acting as if portugal's the fourth. it's the size of the problem that matters. >> it is. i know, portugal is not large. i understand that. but neither was greece. >> good point. >> here's david cameron arriving in brussels, prime minister of the u.k. there is a disagreement about whether this disagreement now over greece is where the hard work actually gets done or whether this is the inevitable collapse and we turn to infighting. >> i think i keep come being

back to last week we were talking about earnings. this is not a market where we came in at 4:30 this morning and everything was bad and we stay bad. we refolks on the perhaps there's upgrades coming. that is the theme of this year. >> in order for the market to proceed higher under this scenario, bifurcation, do we need the financials to continue its move? >> they mark time is good. we've had a gigantic run. last year we had too big a run and we got completely pancaked. i would love to see us cool off here. this has been an animal spirits rally that does not factor in any europe. i think some europe should be factored in but not like last year where i care about portugal more than i do about caterpillar. i don't. >> what about japan? a little bit of chatter now,

once again my friend carl bassett has been talking about it for years but it is entering the conversation again. >> japan, i care about it from the point of view they've bm become not kpe if i hancompetitf the strong yen. they've eased to be competitors. the koreans, too. they've seen to have made a bet on tvs, which was a disaster. corning in its quarter talking about how the koreans are overstretched, too, the japanese are overstretched. >> you mentioned on a positive note on the market, the golden cross, where the s&p 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average. it's about to happen for the first time since 2010. >> showing shorter momentum is in tact. >> it's happened 16 times since the early 60s, 75% of the time

following six months are up by an average of 4.4%. >> i want to see it first. now it's starting to get built in. if it doesn't happen, we're going to come in and say the golden cross didn't happen. i'd like to have it happen first. >> when we come back this morning, "squawk on the street" exclusive, live interview with the philadelphia federal president charles plosser and steve case, who knows a thing or two about the dot-com world. we'll ask him what he thinks about a facebook ipo. one more look at futures on this monday set to open down. back in a moment.

is all about the buzz surrounding facebook and expectation it is will spiel it's ipo this morning. if you're mark zuggerberg, what's your facebook status this morning? >> i don't do facebook. >> you don't do facebook at all? >> no. >> what about twitter? >> nope. >> i do it to find out what others are up to.

>> just a voyeuristic need -- >> sometimes you can't look. >> or is it like a car crash? >> it is kind of a nice way to stay in touch with people's family, their kids. >> that's true. >> i tend not to post pictures of myself, only the kids. and i have a small number of friends. i don't know. status update for zuckerberg today, probably be blank. i would think you'd want to keep quiet. >> that way no gun jumping, s.e.c. don't worry about it. focus on something else. >> really? the s.e.c. will jump on his facebook page? >> we never allowed all this trading. we talked about that with david. there was no private market. the s.e.c. has decided to take a leave of be a as soon absence o. i think it's ridiculous but the s.e.c. has fallen behind. >> up next, get ready for cramer's mad dash ahead of the bell. and golden cross or not, we're

looking at a lower open here on wall street. >> golden cross, i love it. while some fiber ads use super models, metamucil uses super hard working psyllium fiber, which gels to remove unsexy waste and reduce cholesterol. taking psyllium fiber won't make you a model but you should feel a little more super. metamucil. down with cholesterol. all in one account. it's powerful, easy to use technology for trading stocks, options, and futures. optionsxpress, the broker smart traders deserve.

open an account today at optionsxpress.com. but proven technologies allow natural gas producers to supply affordable, cleaner energy, while protecting our environment. across america, these technologies protect air - by monitoring air quality and reducing emissions... ...protect water - through conservation and self-contained recycling systems... ... and protect land - by reducing our footprint and respecting wildlife. america's natural gas... domestic, abundant, clean energy to power our lives... that's smarter power today.

♪ ♪ about five minutes before the bell rings on wall street. it's time for cramer's mad dash ahead of the market open. there a lot of stocks we're watching this morning, in terms of that deal, the abb deal, does that man other companies in this sector will get a bid is. >> i think you have to recognize some of them have actually moved tremendously, still someone undervalued.

this cooper -- this used to be a great american growth industrial. looks like its got its growth mojo back and it's got a tool business that's good. can you look at cooper. it has moved a lot. looking at selling at 7.8 times twice ebidta. cooper is a great company. i hope it comes down so you recommend it. >> what do you make of some of the downgrades? staples, horton. you mentioned earlier many of them are valuations. >> i love horton. they signalled in the call things are back. they're building new communities, there's good feeling that business is good. the pull back buy, staples, no

momentum, small business story. it has not ban good buy. staples is just something that romney talks about. that's a romney talk about. and dunder mifflin. >> that is true. back in a moment. stay tuned for the opening bell. which of these stocks do you like? "squawk on the street" will be right back. [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field.

take the privileged investing tools of wall street and make them simple, intuitive,

and available to all. distill all that data. make information instinctual, visual. introducing trade architect, td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. take control of your portfolio today. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up $600 when you open an account. you're watching cnbc "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. opening bell set to ring in about 30 seconds here. this pause in the rally is turning into something else? >> the like the pause. i also want to point out we were in this hinderberg cross. no, i don't like any of this stuff. i don't like the chart stuff.

this is like it's good until it's bad. >> you look at the charts every weekend. >> i look at the charts of individual stocks because i understand people focus on it. i don't want to focus on it. i want to focus on the fact there's tremendous momentum in 2012 and we'd need a little pause. i like the pause. i'll use a coca-cola example. >> the big board this morning the startup america partnership encouraging entrepreneurship in this country celebrating its first anniversary. we'll talk to the organization's chairman steve case and his not brother ceo scott case and lam research -- >> white hot. if you look at the budget of the big semiconductor companies, the capital expenditures are very, very big. this is part of a bull market, not a bear market. >> if you're looking for a bit of a buyback here, how far do

you think the market should refrench? >> some stocks let you use the bank of america down grade. a stock that's up 12% can pull back to 7, 8. i wish china were up because we need to see rate cuts in china in order to stabilize. i think the stocks that are up, you got to take a very harvard look. let's look at caterpillar. this is up about 28% since the bottom. if that pulls back to 104, 105 and stabilizes, that would be my level. >> some say the ratio to earnings, 60% of the gdp number last week was inventory restocking. there's a lot of reason not to trust what's going right. >> when you like at united technologies, i didn't think the quarter was that great but people responded well. 3m, the bar had been so low for a lot of these country. wasn't low enough for ford. but when you look at the great american companies you dock bam

and say, gee, they were able to do pretty well given europe wasn't so strong. dave cody said in his honeywell conference call, all bets are off. but right now people are doing 2%, 3% in europe. >> look at thomas & betts up right off the top of the quarter. >> the original family of pep boys, i have to tell you, many, mo and jack, pep boys had been left behind by an auto zone. auto zone downgraded today. pep boys never was able to do what auto zone was able to do, which was blanket the company. it was a provincial company a that has been stalled for a very long time. could i see someone wanting to

add it as a bolton but it is not a good company. there's a good one across the street from the george washington hotel but it's not a -- pep boys, look, it's a crummy company. it deserved to get a bid get taken out. it's not monroe, it's not autozone, it not o'reilly automotive. it has been a lagger and someone decided to take advantage of it. >> the bullish story on autozone was car sales were down and people were keeping their cars, they'd need to take care of them. has that changed? >> the fleet is 10, 11 years old. until you great lot of employment, you're still going to be stuck in a market war lot of people are going to continue to repair autos. the autozone downgrade, i'm not a buyer of that down grade. >> there's been a whole pause in this country.

that's one of the things that goes. you go through the caterpillar quarter. there hasn't been anything done in in country for four years. we've been completely on hold. that is something that seems to be changing to me. nason versus falloff. it's a team of too many quarters. ford is the classic example. ford had a good america. it was good. it just wasn't enough to offset europe. >> we have to check with mary thompson. >> good morning to you, melissa. in the wake of the dow's first weekly decline in 2012, the blue chip index extending those losses in early trading, right now down about 99 points. today the market is under pressure because once again we are waiting for a deal on greece. there was a lot of hope and speculation we could see something by today. that's not the case. and traders are increasingly watching portugal because the yield on the ten-year, the portuguese ten-year rose 120 a basis points over the weekend as

again without a deal on greece, concerns start to focus on some of the weaker eurozone countries today, has caused the euro to drop back and is putting a lot of pressure on the european banks this morning. deutsche bank down about 6% in early trade credit, suisse down 4%. citi actually raised to a buy from neutral. goldman expecting the company to reach an roe by 20 14 even with citi holdings. >> now we go to sharon. >> no matter where i look on this floor or who i talk to, everyone is expressing a lack of confidence about what is

happening in europe. we are looking at lower equities and lower energy prizes across the board. we're looking at the situation between iran and eu. another reason why some traders are saying oil prices are lower. they want to make the first move and stop the export before the import ban goes into effect that the eu agreed on a week ago. the saudi oil minuister says if there are any shortages, we were prepared to make up for them. copper prices are lower but poised for the biggest gain in a long time, and keep your eyes on gold. we're going to see kol vilt, you have to take delivery or roll over to the next month. but that tells you what the

sentiment is the gold is in euros. >> pressure off ringifresh off g bell we have scott case joining us along with about a hundred thousand other people. >> all our startup. >> congratulations. a great, great accomplishment. >> a year ago we launched start up america at the white house, we needed to focus the nation on the work entrepreneurs do. we're really off to the races. it's a big week for our first anniversary. >> put the first year into context for us. big accomplishments? >> we circled up about $1.2 billion from the private sector to help these young companies grow, many of them are right around us here, help them grow

and tell their stories, which is way using the new york stock exchange platform to help tell their stores. tomorrow we'll have 18 startup regions from vermont to virginia, florida to hawaii to help america's systems start to grow. >> hawaii, what a coincidence. >> what will be some of the metrics of success in the future in terms of the number of employees, jobs created because of these startups or maybe exits in terms of ipos or stalales? >> in the last three decade, 40 million jobs have been created by these high-net companies. we want to ensure globally the place to focus is entrepreneurship. there's a role for the government to play, we've encouraged the white house and congress to come together in pro-entrepreneurship legislation. it's taking the risk and over

time building great companies that can create jobs and make sure the industry of the future are based here in the united states. >> you were integral to the boom in the dot-com period. facebook. what does it mean to you? how important? what does it say to all these young people and what's it worth? >> i don't know what it's worth but it's obviously been a great company. i was reminded when i came in today aol went public 20 years ago. i think the baton has been passed to the next generation of companies. we talked about communities back then is now called social media. and facebook has done a tremendous job. it's a sign this phenomenon is part of every day life and makes possible a lot of companies and a lot of job creation for our nation. >> we hear a lot in this campaign. do you think it's all about the tax code? these people aren't motivated by the tax code. they're motivated about a better idea and making something of themselves.

do you have find that debate about the tax code disingenuous? >> i think it's a more complicated issue. there's a role for taxes but there's a more important roll in immigration policy, making sure we're the magnet for talent, a role in terms of regulation. we've looked at things like making it easier for people to go public, have an on-ramp for sarbanes-oxley. and recognize the role entrepreneurs play and make sure government is playing a role so entrepreneurs like those that are here today can drive our economy. and ensure a more competitive global world. other countries are stepping up their game. weep need to double down on entrepreneurship and that's what the startup america partnership is all about. >> we have the ceo and co-founder of hiccup-pops?

>> yes. >> what is it. >> it's a company that abased off of a lollipop that stops hiccups. >> how old if you have. >> 13. >> we have a lot of great ideas from entrepreneurs willing to take the risk and drive our economy in the future. >> could you have gotten this done without scott and steve? >> i'm sure they could have been we're trying to provide a little booster. >> congratulations, guys. steve case, scott case, thank you very much. >> we might be talking about these companies down the line as ipos, you never know. let's head to headquarters. david is there with the faber report. >> very interesting of course to hear the future entrepreneurs of america. they are including that 13-year-old girl. very nice. i wanted to get to m & a.

somewhat interesting. it's the first time i've seen in tender documents an inclusion of default in the eu as being the reason a tender might not actually happen. in this i'm referring to last week's unsolicited build from roche. andily lumina said they may offer for illunina. that's a first. not unexpected perhaps but it does figure into this tender. now remember roche is coming after the board, illumina has

said we're not interesting. it gives them an opportunity to walk away, even officially if greece is in default. >> when you're doing strategic deal like this, why should you care? isn't it just cost of business something like that could happen? >> it is. if you're roche and you're in europe, you might have a significant impact from all sorts of dislocation occurring in the emu, i would assume, though many would argue that's already happened, right? >> this isn't a company that does diagnostics. we're not talking about something that's going to be used less because of greece. >> that's why i mention it. it's kind of strange. on the regulatory front i wanted to point out a couple of things. i'm talking about the ftc's commission to sue to block

omnicare's potential acquisition. it doesn't look like they're going to get a deal. were phamerica were to agree anyway. at&t a prime example. and nyse and medco being bought by express scripts. they say don't draw too many co

corollaries. that's it for me now. >> coming upne next, the compan making a bet on novelis. as if friday's jobs report didn't already have your attention, we're about to raise the stakes. how would you like to win -- wait for it, wait for it -- a mug? but not just any mug. it's a cnbc mug signed by the "squawk on the street" gang. if can you guess the non-farm pay row number, it's yours. watch on friday to see if you are the lucky winner. you know you want it!

>> lam research recently

announced a $3.3 billion to acquire novelis systems. whats did consolidation mean for the equipment industry? martin anstice joins us. thank you for joining us. intel announcing it's going to spend $12 billion. now with this deal are you poised to capture a birg percentage of that? >> unquestionably yes. this acquisition, planned acquisition is about extending our scope of the fabrication squimt spending, which we expect to be $30 billion in calendar 2012. this will giving us a meaningful increase in the share available to us and in terms of the complementary fit of the probability lines for the two

companies, there is no competitive overlap. this is about a net share gain opportunity. we're excited not just about the opportunity to deliver a broader set of offerings but to create process synergies that benefit the company. >> lam stand alone, what percentage did you have of intel's business, what will you stand to gain with the combined company? >> intel is one of the big spending companies. we have anne stall based at intel but we haven't been a lead are edge supplier on a stand-alone basis. one of the things this deals presents suss the opportunity to get on the inside of that conversation and hopefully position the complete set of products in the combined company going forward. i think across the portfolio of companies in the semiconductor equipment industry, there's a lot of spending available to us beyond intel and we're focused on the complete set of customers

in the future. >> a lot of people at home are trying to figure out what you guys do. when companies want to develop new form factors, basically make it so your cell phone is lighter and ultrabook can come out, they need you. they can't do the same semiconductors without you? >> that's true. there's 30 years of history in this industry now and the equipment industry is one of the primary enablers of everything that you just described. we are increasingly as consumers place demands on battery life, we increasingly place demands on power and on speed and lam research is in that part of the supply chain where we make that possible. we provide the manufacturing systems that enable the creation of microchips and the microchips create all of the wonderful things you've just described. >> novellus just a great companywere you intrigued because they bought back 25% of the company because they felt

they were chronically underva e undervalu undervalued? >> it was more to do with the revalue of bringing these companies back together, the respect of leadership position in the market of the two companies. a primary measure of the success of a deal like this is the value created for the customer. if we get customers nodding vertically about the technology and technology win that they get, then everything else follows and we'll be looking at growth and profitability and share price that's in tune with that. >> martin, if you can give as you macro view on the industry. have we seen the worst for the industry behind us? >> i think it's never too early and it's never too late to kind of start claiming an inflexion point. we expected coming into the march quarter to see an upward trajectory in our business and in fact that's turned out to be

true. our perspective on calendar '12 today is stronger today than it was two or three months ago and the $30 billion fabrication equipment spending number is the thing we're focused on and that's enabled by stronger memory. >> thank you very much. >> see, there's a cycle. that's not europe. that's a business cycle. this is what i'm talking about. these people have to upgrade their technology. i'm talking about intel on holdings in order to keep up with what you want at home. this is not a greece story. that's why i want to urge people to recognize there's more than just greece to this economy. >> okay. when we come back, a lot more "squawk on the street." don't go away. >> coming up, cramer is kicking it into high gears. his six stocks in 60 seconds will energize all of us. get your jim-joe when "squawk on

the street" returns.

take a look at shares of cruise operator carnival corporation. the company released its annual report and include some financial notes on the costa

concordia tragedy. it says it carries the ship on its book at $490 million, $510 million worth of insurance on it, $30 million deductible for ship damage and personal injury liable. it's assessing if the ship can be fixed but it will be out of service the remainder of the year if not longer. it's hard to imagine someone would want to get on the ship if it were repaired. >> great company, tough moment. >> six stocks in 60 seconds. >> we start it off with whole foods. >> monster move. >> the endless desire to call a bottom in steel. only new corp has the mojo. >> ross stores? >> i think it's still okay to

buy. >> time warner downgraded to equal. >> there's worry about difficult compares coming out because of "harry potter." i like that stob. >> zimmer holdings. >> this is not a bad call. >> and kellogg says earnings are going to disappoint for two years? >> big supply chain problems there. they have not been agent to diversify. procter is another one that looks very bad here. >> you said on friday you not procter should be broken up. >> there was an open rebellion on the conference call. i know these people from when i used to be a hedge fund manager. open rebellion against procter's management. >> we'll see you at 6:00. >> coming up, a live interview with philadelphia fed president charles plosser. much more "squawk on the street" straight ahead.

the ned -- fed announcing it plans to keep interest rates low. we're joined by our very special guest philly fed president charles plosser. >> i'm here with charles plosser. let's talk first about your economic outlook. the statement seemed to be very pessimistic and almost seemed to ignore the better economic data that's been out there. what's your take on it? >> i thought it was a little bit pessimistic. i would prefer a little more optimism in the statement. it's not that we're going to take off like a sky rocket going into this year, but do i think things are looking better, the employment picture and labor market looks a little better and i think there's reason to be hopeful that we're going to make this continuous modest progress toward recovery. >> give us an idea of yo gdp and

unemployment outlook. >> i'm looking for gdp to be own about 3%, which is a little above trend. it not an outrageous forecast. maybe people are at 2.5. the difference between 2.5 and 3%, our ability with that degree of accuracy is pretty poor. >> what about unemployment? >> we've seen unemployment fall almost a full percentage point in the last year. the last that happened was 1995. so i'm a little more optimistic. i think we could be -- by the end of 2012 i think unemployment will be close to 8% and on my better days maybe even a little below that. >> let's talk about these interest rate forecasts you're now publishing. there seem to be a lot of -- some disagreement between the statement, which said that you expect it to remain lower through late 2014 and the forecast that came out later in

the day. which should the markets believe? >> i think two things. one is the interest rate projections in the s&p are not forecast. people have to remember they are projections of what each individual committee member thinks is appropriate policy. that is, what should policy be, not what will policy be. they're making individual assumptions about the path of policy and that reflects how over time that will reflect how policy evolves and the views of the economy evolve. in terms of the statement, the statement is is a statement of poll circumstance a statement bit committee. it's reinforced by a vote of the fic. if you look projections, interest rates and policy projections, there's a huge mass of people in around around 2014 some beyond and some sooner. so it's not clear that the statement didn't reflect the modal view of what the committee and participants thought. but they are different exercises. so i thit it's very important we

understand the differences in our projections and the policy statement. >> if you watch the way the market reacted, they thought great at 1230 when you said you expect -- but then we learned at 2:00 there's not very much support for that later date on the board. >> the statement is not as clear as it could be that this is late 2014 is contingent. it is conditional on the evolution of the economy. now i think that we don't make that clear enough. a lot of people have been reading the statement as if it was a commitment and it is not a commitment. when you look it the sep projectio projections, everyone is clear it is not a commitment. eight conditional statement and i think revealing the projections in the sep make that even clearer that this is not a committeement. >> one of the things that was most interesting about it is there were six individuals who thought -- who projected the

first rate hike in 2012 or 2013. have i to ask you which one are you? >> are you in -- >> i'm certainly in that six. >> i want to press you, though. do you think the first rate hike comes 2013? >> i said previously, even before the statement there's a possibility rate hikes would have to come before mid 2013. i was unhappy with the calendar state in the statement. i'm still unhappy with the calendar state in the statement. i don't think that's the rate way to convey policy, i don't think it's good communication. i think it's likely to occur between now and before mid 2013. whether it occurs in 2012 or early 2013, i'm up in the air about it. could go either way. >> which one were you? >> i was in 2012, late 2012. >> you think it could happen -- >> if the economy as i think it might, i think it's likely it might. >> let's talk about the board's -- the committee seems

to be going in the opposite direction. as i gauge what was said by the chairman and other members, they seem to be going for additional easing. >> i can't tell what you the committee thinks. i've alluded to the fact that i think there's a suggestion if the economy involves as i think it might we might have to raise rate sooners, not do more. i'm very concerned about policy -- we keepcying we've got to do more, we've got to do more, we're missing our targets. there are some analogies of that, what i call an acceleration policy. imagine you're driving down the interstate and you're going fast and it kind of fuzzy outside, it foggy, there was an accident this morning in florida in the newspaper, ten-car pileup. we don't forecast very well, don't forecast well far in advance. you know you have to make an exit, you don't know where it is and you can't see far in advance but you know you're not there

yet. in policy we're okay, we're not there yet, let's step on the gas faster. pretty soon you're going to get the flashing exit sign and when you do, two things can happen. you either slam on the brakes really hard so you can make the exit to your destination, in which case you may get the ten-car pileup behind you losing lives and disrupting the economy or you step on it fast enough that you make the turn and you flip and you disrupt the economy. if you don't make the turn and you go beyond the exit, you've got to go all the way to the next exit before you can turn around and come back and you miss your goals. you run the risk of runaway policies, runaway inflation, bubbles and so forth. i worry about the acceleration view that we have to go ever faster. >> you think things should slow down? >> we need to be patient. we have to stop think we go have to do more. >> what about the idea that you're not hitting the targets and inflation seems to be relatively subdued? >> that's fine but the question

is will more inflation and policy help the unemployment rate? that's the short run question. and the kwi about whether or not targeting or tolerating higher inflation will help that unemployment. eight huge debate in the economics profession. >> do you think quantitative easing has helped bring down the interest rates? >> it has helped interest rate bs but we don't know what d distortions it's created. >> there's a lot of talk that fed policy is fun ipunishing sa. >> i think the judgment has been for the sake of the economy has a whole, that we're willing to tolerate, if you will, that. but it true that low interest rates close to zero are punishing savers. no question. the idea of policy is to get

people to quit saving and start spending. that's one of the objectives. people on fixed incomes, there's some real risks if they can't get a return on their savings, they start liquidating their assets, liquidating their wealth in order to live. that means in future generations, who would have inherited some of that wealth from their parents, let's say, aren't going to get it. it going to be gone. >> i've had portfolio managers complain to me about the federal reserve saying you're forcing me into a risk profile i don't want to be in. >> i think that's probably true. a lot of them do share the view somehow in the stretch for yield many are taking unwise risks. the fed has made very clear at times we're trying to force people to take some more risk but we can't control how that happens. and so by trying to push people into riskier assets as we're

trying to do with operation twist or asset purchase programs and we could be breeding problems for us down the road if we don't exit at the right time and go past the exit and we have another credit bubble of some kind. >> would you make a case against the idea to buy additional mortgage to drive down interest rates in the housing market? >> i don't see a need for that. it counter to my intwauition of always doing more. wee have one of the worst housing markets we've seen in a generation and we've lowered interest rating to extraordinary lows and the housing market is is it in a funk. >> i do want to ask you a technical question here. you have suggested in the past and economists said to me these interest rates forecasts would

be useful if i knew where they stood on employment and gdp? are you in favor of accomplishing them. >> i inclined to say yes to that. if we did something like that, it would clearly be anonymous. we would not attach names to them. it would be more helpful in helping people understand where some of these rate projections come from if you saw how they matched up with that same individual's output and unemployment and inflation forecast. that would be very revealing information and be sort of transparency. but it begins to get a little tricky about people then trying to play guessing game of who's who. and there are people that are uncomfortable about that. most of the presidents, you listen to their speeches, oft times talk about this, are very open about it. >> charlie, thank you very much for joining us.

>> great to be here. >> carl, back to you guys at e.c. or hq or wherever you. >> freddie mac is supposed to make owning a home easier but is new research showing that freddie mac is changing its tune and betting against american homeowners? stick around. we're back with that in two. did you guys hear... h. ...that mary got engaged? that's so 42 seconds ago. thanks for the flowers guys. [ both ] you're welcome. oooh are you guys signing up for the free massage? [ both ] so 32 seconds ago. hey guys you hear frank's cat is sick? yeah, we heard. wanna sign the card? did you know the guys from china are in the office... [ speaking chinese ] [ male announcer ] stay a step ahead with the 4g lte galaxy s ii skyrocket. only from at&t. ♪

let's run through the markets. right now the dow jones industrial average down a full percentage point, 126 points is the loss there. the nasdaq is down by 1.1%. notable apple is trading higher on the session up by 0.4%. the s&p flirting with that level. and euro u.s. dollar seeing weakness down by almost a full percentage point here. now ganet sliding to lta may be airline and consumer spending stalling,nding last year on a weak note.

>> let's just squeeze in some stocks to watch. motorola solutions upgraded to buy from hold. procter & gamble down graded to neutral to buy at uba and spirit airlines initiated boy deutsche with a $24 price target. >> when we come back, is freddy ma -- freddie mac betting against homeowners? we'll listen to alman brothers. >> we have a tremendous plan that's just coming on line now. >> facebook is eager to make sure they can start trading by mid may or so. >> a lot of its users want continue to vest. >> this could be the lowest price corporate issue ever. >> the psychological impact on

silicon valley could be huge. this is the central company of this era. ( ♪

♪ you and me and the big old tree ♪ ♪ side by side, one, two, three ♪ ♪ count the birds in the big old tree ♪ ♪ la la la [ male announcer ] the inspiring story of how a shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales. ♪

♪ you and me and the big old tree side by side ♪ but if you take away the faces on the trees... take away the pixie dust. take away the singing animals, and the charming outfits. take away the sprites, and the storybook narrator... [ man ] you're left with more electric trucks. more recycled shipping materials... and a growing number of lower emissions planes... which still makes for a pretty enchanted tale. ♪ la la la whoops, forgot one... [ male announcer ] sustainable solutions. fedex. solutions that matter.

take a look at the dow, down 116. if it stays at these levels, we would be looking at the second triple-digit move on the dow so far for the entire year. on the first trading day of the year, the dow did close up 179. >> but the context is of course of a great january effect. we went into bull market territory at the end of last week on the russell and nasdaq and s&p and had risen 20% from october lows. you have to question where you go from here but we are for many

people booking gains. >> it has been slow and steady all month long. >> bank of america is down the most, about 3% at this time. meantime a new report out this morning showing national mortgage company freddie mac may have invested heavily in securities that would lose value if homeowners that refinanced. let's bring in the man behind the headlines. jesse is a senior reporter at "republica." this notion around inverse floater portions, which sounds really complicated. how did they allow freddie mac to bet against the home owner? >> they're a type of securitization. they've been around for decade. what happened in 2010/2011, freddy increased their inverse floaters massive. they are essentially interest-only strips so they've

sold principal of mortgage-backed security. their prepayment risk comes from people refinance their mortgages. >> is it possible that as freddie mac as said, is it possible that this arm of the company is completely separate, that there's a so-called chinese wall? >> that's what they say. and we have no evidence to suggest that there was any coordination on this. what the story says, though, is at the same time freddie was placing these bets, freddie mac was as this major gatekeeper with fannie mae on mortgage rules actually tightening credit, making it harder for people to get refinancings. so these things were happening simultaneously. freddie was betting in a very concentrated, levered way against refinancings while making it harder for people to get refinancing. >> so what is the message then? what are you suggesting is going on in essence? >> there's a deep conflict of

interest and problem at freddie mac and lesser at fannie mae that they have these huge portfolios, but they're chartered bit federal government to make home lending affordable and more available. this is in direct conflict because ne want to preserve the value of their investments. not only that, they're making more leverage concentrated bets to do that. >> if i reframe it, it's not that onerous. if i say they've been told they've got to get rid of assets and they got rid of last year $43 billion of assets, in an environment where mortgage-backed securities have ground to a halt, they've packaged up stuff and stripped out the risk that they're retaining and pushing off the vanilla bid, if you like, putting off that backed by the principle of the mortgage simply to get rid of it. is there not a more benign explanation they're doing what they should be doing? >> i don't think that's right. the mortgage backed security market is very liquid. if they could sell mortgage

backed securities now easily and get back money to taxpayers, they're taking a short of term hit because they're retaining the inverse floaters and selling the floaters portion -- >> in the scale it's $3.4 billion out of a total port knoll your of 663 billion. it's a tiny amount. >> that's a legitimate amount. they're retaining 20 billion of risk. they've reduced that portfolio but about 43 billion. it looks like they're selling and congress has told them you have to sell your portfolio. that are retaining risk. it masks the risk retention that they're taking. they could be benefiting taxpayers by retaining these belts but do we want freddie to really bein gauging in levered

concentrating bets that could go wrong? they may be going right, they could go wrong for taxpayers. >> do regulators have a say on this? >> the fhfa is essentially the board of directors. they are responsible for the decisions that freddie mac. what that means is i think that fhfa has a conflict of interesting because they are both the regulator and the owner and they have two different interests. >> smells like a congressional hearing is on its way. what kind of reaction are you get so long far? >> my partner, chris arnold, and npr are reporting on that today. you suspect congress is going to react strongly to this. we don't have anything now. >> jesse, always great to see you. thanks so much. >> let have a quick look at where we are on the s&p 500. heat map. it's an important day for the

market. we've not witnessed these sorts of moves really this year. the bulk of that index is in negative territory. and we'll talking about the most hotly anticipated ipo, facebook, who is set to be the chief beneficiary. [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field.

take the privileged investing tools of wall street and make them simple, intuitive, and available to all. distill all that data. make information instinctual, visual. introducing trade architect, td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. take control of your portfolio today. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up $600 when you open an account.

one hour into trade and we

till have is a triple-digit loss. look at the breadth of the move. let's check the nyse. there you see almost 5-to-1 decline -- well, a 4-to-1. >> you mentioned financials. interesting morgue and stan sta trading lower than more than a percent. bank of america, which goldman sachs down graded saying they face execution risks over the next 12 to 18 months is down by more than 3%. and some were saying the financials could start losing steam here. here we have a little bit of a pause in the run we've seen in

2012. >> meantime, you'll never get who has taken the lead in display ads this year. julia stands by with some of those rankings. >> well, it's none other than facebook. the latest report shows facebook delivered 20% of all display ads in the u.s. last year, up from 21% in 2010. as facebook grows its lead and steals shares from its rivals. the number two player, yahoo! and microsoft and google in a distant third and fourth place. facebook is winning this battle because it offer as few distinct advantages beyond its ability to target narrowly on demographic information. they can connect directly with

their fans and there's the amplification effect. >> it appears a communication from a trusted friend is more persuasive than a communication that comes directly from the brand. that's another driver of facebook's success. >> at&t is the number one brand advertiser in the u.s. with 2.2% of all ad impressions of display ads followed by experian and then verizon. facebook did about $3.8 billion in revenue in 2011. most of that is from display ads and it has been doubling revenue year over year. >> stay with us. clearly ever is buzz about phase's potential ipo, potentially coming through this wednesday, questioning who might be the main beneficiaries with

that. we have had the coo of facebook, sheryl sandberg speaking over the weekend in davos. >> facebook's mission is to make the world more open and connected. my personal ambition of everyone working with suss to make the world more open and connected, give more people the power of voice and the power to not just receive information but reach out to others and form the kind of communities we're going to need to address the problems we've been talking about. >> we're now joined along with jul julia, the reporter who broke the story last week. >> it's not the sort of nerdy, cool commentary you might expect from facebook as it comes to market. >> that's certainly been the changing face of facebook that

we've seen over the last two years especially. sheryl sandberg joined the company in 2008 and a big part of why she was brought on was to make facebook grow up. she was the one who was responsible for coming up with a business model for facebook. you talked about comscore and the study that found facebook is leading in the display market. that's all sheryl sandberg. the talk you're hearing from her is really the talk they have been putting out there for a long time. the phrase making the world more open and connected, that's kind of their catch phrase. that's like goolg's don't be evil phrase. that's their pr tag line. >> she also said the best thing facebook can represent at the ipo is the kind of growth that creates jobs. is there a political move here that might threaten the company? is it a defensive move on her part that keep others at bay? is that what we're also witnessing a presumably we

embark and a road show? >> i think the number one thing sheryl and mark zuckerberg wants to do is talk about the growth opportunities for the from company from an advertising revenue perspective. we've heard a lot about how they've grown but they haven't convinced madison avenue advertisers that they must advertise on facebook. they're getting there and they're growing. so i think political considerations are a part of it but facebook has put to rest some of the privacy concerns they've had in the past. the big thing for them and the thing that investors care about the most, absolutely the most, is going to be revenue and advertising revenue. >> i do think that -- >> are you breaking your own figures on that on friday, julia? >> absolutely. just looking at that revenue and the earnings numbers that we are expecting to see from facebook in 2011 it looks like we're looking at $3.8 billion in revenue and 1.5 in operating.

i think facebook has been transformed in madison avenue's eyes. three or four years ago we saw mostly small businesses advertising on facebook. i think sheryl sandberg has gotten there, she's had a huge presence in new york, meeting with major brand advertisers and convincing them they must be on facebook. there is a huge opportunity here for brand advertisers and this is where facebook's growth is going to come from. it's going to come from the fortune 500 advertisers who can go on and spread the message to their friends. that's where we're going to see the real facebook growth, from the major advertisers. >> i think that's absolutely true by i would also point out a lot of advertising on facebook is free. so one of the key questions that we're going to need to see them doing is getting people these advertisers to actually pay for those ads.

>> so, i mean, is this all going to be very happy clappy? i love the article you wrote about it's going to be the single best venture investment ever. are there any negatives as we move forward through the process are there things you would be looking for in tick? do we go down to $75 billion? >> that's exactly what i was going to bring up. i think the things we have noticed when that $75 billion to $100 billion valuation came out, the number that i had reported earlier was $100 billion. what i had heard from my sources even back then was that the $100 billion number was sort of considering that everything went well, considering that investor appetite was going to be huge, considering that, you know, the ipo market was good and especially what was going on in europe. so there was always sort of an awareness that the valuation could come down, could be a

little bit lower. it's been trading in the 80s on the secondary market, so $100 billion already is above what you would see in the secondary market. but now it looks like the numbers a little bit lower in terms of what they're talking about internally and could go as low as $75 billion. it's not a disappointment but it's something we'll all be looking and wondering exactly what happened and why. >> in terms of the quality of the earnings and revenue and what we will see in s1, what are you hearing on expectations and what investors on wall street would like to see? >> i think there is so much excitement around facebook that investors are just desperate to get their hands on this. they ant to see continued growth, they always want to see continued growth and their expectations that revenue could reach about $6 billion this year. it's important for them to reach

those expectations. once those s1s come out, we're all going to be ripping those apart. >> oh, yes, life is going to get crazy. we'll see if we get it on wednesday. in the meantime, guys, you know what this means, don't you? there is a perfect confluence of events. we have the new stand down there. if they ipo here at the new york stock exchange, they could ring the bell and he could come straight over to our stand. mark zuckerberg could be the inaugural guest on the new home. >> or he could walk right on by. >> we can dream. >> do you think they realize they have that prospect in front of them? >> that's why they'll file. >> they will. >> what technical indicators do we have moving forward that could suggest the market moves even higher? stick around, we're back in two.

mornin'. i guess i'm helping them save hundreds on car insurance. it probably also doesn't hurt that i'm a world-famous advertising icon. cheers! i mean, who wouldn't want a piece of that? geico. ah... fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent oh dear... or more on car insurance. we were just driving along,er comin' back from the lake,ng. and all of a sudden, ka-plam. it blindsided us. what is it? our college savings account. how do you think it happened? not sure. i think something we bought a while ago turned out to be something else, annnnnd, i remember a lot of other stuff in there had the word "aggressive" in it. is everyone okay? well, now, yeah. who knows later. ♪

>> some stocks to watch, hain celestial and altria added to the most preferred list at ubs. >> for the first time since 2010, the s&p is approaching a key level called the golden cross. here to explain is kevin klein. it's hard to read and think about the golden cross when we have the s&p 500 down by a percentage point right now. do you still see the golden cross actually happening? we are actually having some problem with his microphone. hopefully we will correct the

situation and get kevin back on because the golden cross indicator is one in which the 50 day crosses the 200 day and showing momentum near term at least is picking up. >> hasn't happened in a long time. last one in 2010, those we've had 16 since 1962. about three quarters of the time markets up in the following six months more than 4% on the s&p. >> it's the nemesis of the death cross. >> or vice versa, the death cross is the nemesis of -- >> the other way around. >> correct. that the near term momentum is slow persian gulf. >> convergence of long term and short-term sentiment. it show momentum whether you're pressing on the accelerator or on the brake. >> and some have argued very optimist being, even as we look at the s&p today, even though

it's in the red. when we come back, we'll talk about the founder behind the social network and what he thinks about the company going public. and we'll talk to one of the nfl's newest owners when we come back this morning. the two trains and a bus to the 5:00 arider.holar. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be.

♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu.

let's talk golden cross once again. let's bring back kevin for more on this. we were getting into the notion we're down a percentage point on the s&p 500. does it look like this event will happen, the golden cross? >> we believe it still will happen. last time we looked we're only about 2 s&p points between the 50 day and 200 day. we do think it will cross above there. >> and what has this told us in the past? why does this matter? >> generally we're skeptical of technical indicators but we found this one do doss have some merit. if you look back to 1962, there have been 26 other instances of a golden cross and we found over the next six months on average the mark gained about 7%, positive about 81% of the time. >> does it matter what the individual components of the s&p 5 are selling you in terms sector and that we're seeing

leadership in other sectors? >> we don't think it really matters too much. you know, we haven't been too bullish on financials at all since the beginning of this bull market. we're not paying too much attention to how those perform. >> so in terms of the golden cross, the opposite would be the death cross. have you seen also that that is a good technical indicator just as the golden cross is one you're actually listening to? >> we've studied both and the death cross hasn't been as much of a clear cut indicator as the golden cross has been. >> can i just ask you about this very strong rotation we've had through january to those stocks, those sectors, that didn't do well last year, some of the beaten down stocks and those that don't pay a dividend have also done well in what you might call the january effect. where does that leave you now? do you think people will return to what they were buying before or do you have think we're putting in new trends here? >> we're starting to see new

trends. there will be a little of what we saw last year but we're starting to see new trends. we've been looking at stocks, we're stocks, we're stock pickers. we like stocks that pay a dividend, but we're not looking to buy stocks solely because of the dividend. >> we're going to talk about all these different effects in terms of the january barometer. do you believe in that, kevin? >> with that we're not so -- we wouldn't agree with so much. we like to say the market doesn't really fall on a calendar. it's very possible january had such a good start, we're not convinced that just because we move higher one month that we're going to move higher the next month. >> kevin, good to have you with us. >> thank you. >> kevin klinus. making a search for a new coach, making a change in the

front office. he joins us today. darren rovell. >> there are people who aren't known to the public until they buy a sports team. thanks so much for joining us on cnbc. we know people love to own sports teams, but often it's not the best business. so based on the numbers you crunched before you bought the jaguars, how profitable do you expect it to be? >> darren, i expect, of course, the nfl is a very fiscally responsible league. it has a hard salary cap, good revenue base, especially now with the new media contract, so i think financially this is by far the best league to be in. certainly i didn't get into it for the economics. i mean, i got into it -- i love football. i got into it because i want to win championships, obviously in

jacksonville. so the love of football is paramount, but financially this is absolutely a fabulous league also. >> you recently said a fan is somebody who is a season ticket holder. some people were offended by that. explain what you meant. >> well, this was kind of a lighthearted comment and really a salute to the season ticket holders. i got a laugh out of it from the people who were there, but this is something that doesn't translate, obviously, on twitter, so i learned my lesson and i have to be absolutely careful how it translates in all the medias, but i've talked to dozens of people after that and certainly they know what i meant, and anybody who has a good thought about the jaguars obviously is a fan and someone we value very much. >> now, your business flexing gate makes auto parts. we've seen a nice rebound from the auto industry as late.

how would you rate your business? >> obviously, in europe they're going on a slowdown, i think the u.s. is on the way up from a collapse of three years ago. obviously, i'm very optimistic for the future. i love the new product offering, especially from gm, ford and chrysler. they're fabulous and they're going to do very well. so cautiously optimistic and really looking forward to driving some of the new products that are going to be coming out. >> last question for you, and i think this is an essential question, obviously, for the fans in jacksonville. how committed are you to staying in jacksonville? it's been reported you could get out if you made a donation to the former owner, wayne weaver. how important is jacksonville to you? >> it's very important to me, and really, i've been up front about that from day one to whoever i spoke to. it's genuine, it's heartfelt. looking for a way, and i'm going to do everything to make it successful here, and the fans

here are passionate. we had 7,000 people show up for a rally on tuesday night at 5:30. so i think the team is very important to them and i'm dedicated to making it work. >> shihad kahn, thank you for joining us, and i hope you enter the mustache championships next year. >> he has a fine mustache. >> one of the finest i've seen. >> picked up on the show, tweet time in today's squawk on the tweet around facebook and boasts that facebook is going public. if you're not zuckerberg, what is your squawk on the street? >> if today's job report didn't already have your attention, we're about to raise the stakes.

how would like to win -- wait for it, wait for it -- a mug. but not just any mug. it's a cnbc mug signed by the "squawk on the street" gang. if you can guess the non-farm payroll number, it's yours. tweet us your guess at n cnbcsquawkstreet@nailthenumber. you know you want it! with spark, the boss earns double miles on every purchase, every day. that's setting the bar pretty high. owning my own business has never been more rewarding. coming through! [ male announcer ] introducing spark the small business credit cards from capital one. get more by choosing unlimited double miles or 2% cash back on every purchase, every day. what's in your wallet? [ male announcer ] for our town.

[ dog barks ] for our country. ♪ for our future. ♪ this isn't just the car we wanted to build. it's the car america had to build. ♪ the extended range electric chevy volt. from the heart of detroit to the health of the country, chevy runs deep. we were just driving along,er comin' back from the lake,ng.y,

and all of a sudden, ka-plam. it blindsided us. what is it? our college savings account. how do you think it happened? not sure. i think something we bought a while ago turned out to be something else, annnnnd, i remember a lot of other stuff in there had the word "aggressive" in it. is everyone okay? well, now, yeah. who knows later. ♪ abigail higgins had... ...a tree that bore the most rare and magical fruit. which provided for their every financial need. and then, in one blinding blink of an eye, their tree had given its last. but with their raymond james financial advisor, they had prepared for even the unthinkable. and they danced. see what a raymond james advisor can do for you.

our question is if you're mark zuckerberg, what is your facebook status this morning? got a bunch of good responses. douglas writes, by this time next week i'll be near the to be of the forbes list, then we'll see who my real friends are. willis tweets to shawn parker, a billion dollars isn't cool. you know what's cool? $20 billion. >> this facebook thing is going to pay off. sure wish i would have thought of it. the bosses are going to comment on that, aren't they?

>> they're chomping at the bit. they're going to do it on twitter, though, not on facebook. >> we're focusing on apple. apple is one of the few stocks in the green, up 2%. they could sell as many as 57 million iphones in china for the next few years, so we've got that call coming up, too. >> we haven't mentioned what's going on in brussels for quite some time. >> what's a to be a face-off, whether it happens behind closed doors or not with the prime minister of greece. i'm not sure if you saw the german finance minister's comments in the journal this morning, but basically it's time for greece to make up its mind. so maybe if they don't allow them to come in and police their budget, they're not going to get that $130 billion second bailout. but who knows. it goes around and around.

>> that conversation completely separate from portugal raising eyebrows today, which i was surprised by cramer's comment that maybe all of this is built in. we'll see you tomorrow, me lis sach -- melissa. we'll get to the fourth hour of "squawk on the street." it starts now. >> here's what's happening so far. >> it's extremely important that governor walker don't get recalled because the reward to get up and fix things in office before your term is up. that would send a horrible signal to other officials. >> the governor is out there every day pounding newt. he never said here's amy tax plan. he doesn't have one. here's my gains plan. he doesn't have one. we have both. >> actually one-tenth lower than

expected. >> i think people have to understand this deal is somewhat akin to groupon. you could have a bomb on it, depending on where it is, or you could have success. >> baseball. what does it mean to you. how important? what does it say to all these young people and what's it worth? >> i don't know what it's worth, but it has obviously made clear that it's a phenomenon of life and provides job creation. >> i do think it will occur in 2013. whether it occurs in 2012 or early 2013, i'm up in the air about it. >> "squawk on the street." want to get you caught up on the markets this morning. the dow down 90, s&p down almost

10. the vicks getting high enough to 20. oil falls below $100 a barrel and exxonmobil announces a $3.9 billion sale of some japanese refining capacity. chevron and conocophillips are both down 1%. stocks up more than 3% this morning. get to the road map today, bringing jobs back to america from overseas. might seem impossible, but we'll show you where and how that is actually happening. one day before voting begins in florida, there are no signs the race is slowing down. we'll see what a former chairman of the republican national committee, michael steele, thinks about the candidates. still no deal in greece over their debt. how that is affecting the market

and overseas trading when the market closes in less than half an hour. he wrote the book on facebook, literally. the story on that in the next hour. but first, gary is going to clear up some myths about facebook, and there are some. gary? >> a lot of things coming out. facebook, exciting, anticipation. but there is a lot of information out there that may not, in fact, be correct. let's go through this list right here. let's talk about the investment banks first. the fees associated with this transaction, let's say maybe it will be 80 to 90 milli$90 milli fees, there will be book underwriters here, and the transaction fees themselves, the fees associated will be immaterial. it won't even move the needle at any of these investment banks. take, for example, the deal announced today, thomas and betts. the advisory fee associated with

that transaction significantly great and probably close to 20 million than anybody is going to receive with the underwriting in association with facebook. may have bragging rights but a lot of bankers say it's just bragging rights, doesn't really have any impact in terms of the business. number two. number two was this idea that a transaction like facebook can have an overall impact on the market. it sounds good, it gets very exciting, but my experience is it's complete b.s. a transaction like this may have an impact for a day or two, but whatever is happening in the macro environment, much greater. number three. be wary of transactions that say they can change the world. i vividly remember the time warner/aol merger. that was going to change the world and be the beginning of a new paradigm. facebook is unbelievable. facebook has been unbelievable.

but companies that say they're going to change the world get valuations that are silly. we'll see where it comes out, but from a banking standpoint and a company that's going to change the world, be a little leery. >> definitely. you want to lower expectations as much as you can ahead of going public. we'll talk more about this in a little bit. markets down across the board, want to get insight. happy monday to you. >> and an almost happy monday here. >> except in brussels where they're arguing over this greek thing. is this resolving over all this turmoil or is this where hard work gets done? >> i think the hard thing is what you and i have discussed over the weeks, and that is while they've remained philosophical, they haven't built a fire department over there. so if this thing breaks out, i'm not sure they have a resolution. i think they're beginning to see the inevitability of greece

having to default. do you put up that amount of money and have it vaporize, or do you devise a structure now, keep it within the union and then use that money you have to kind of start them on the second process. you've had your crisis of help and now we're going to help you rebuild. >> what kind of precedent does that set for portugal? >> well, it presents a major problem, and it will cause them difficulty in financing. but i think there is almost no one who has taken economics 101 who believes that greece can, in fact, avoid the faulting. and i think they don't want to throw the money away. all right, we'll help you, but first let's get this. i don't know what that structure is, i'll be thinking about it over the next few days. >> this is not new.

is this all about greece all of a sudden? >> no, it's not all of a sudden, it's backed up. i mean, we've been told time and time again -- they told michelle a week ago it may be within hours. well, it's not within hours, it wasn't within days, and this disappointment is coming back up. the market is trying to stabilize here, they're circling the wagons. this is going to stay with us throughout the week, i think. >> do you think the markets build in sddisappointment, chao? >> we're getting close to the markets meeting them. >> philly fed president charles

schweitzer saying a rate hike may have to come pretty soon. steve? >> carl, i want to make sure everybody understands the significance of the plauser interview. he was one of the first fcio member to reveal his significant interest rate forecast tied individually to him. he said one of the three members who forecast a rate hike. remember, there were 3 and 12, and the bulk of the board was 2 and 14. charlie plauser admitting to his own forecast there. why is that? he sees potential growth in 2012 and he thinks unemployment could fall to 8% and lower in 2012. in fact, one of the interesting things he said is that he believes the statement from the fed in that statement last week was a little too pessimistic. >> i thought it was a little bit

pessimistic. i would have preferred a little more optimism in the statement. i think the outlook has improved in the last seven months. it's not like we're going to take off like a skyrocket going into this year, but i do think the things are looking better. the employment picture, the employment labor market looks a little better, and i think there's reason to be hopeful that we're going to make this continuous moderate progress towards recovery. >> plauser says he sees little need for the feds to buy additional mortgage-backed securities. of course, maybe as one of the more outspoken hawks on the committee, and he is worried about this faster accommodation. he called this acceleration where i need to meet their goals. he's afraid inflation could come into the picture as a result of these policies. he says, interest rate forecasts are not a commitment and they're contingent upon the economy. >> i think the fact of the matter is the statement is

pretty clear, although not as clear as it could be, that this is late 2014 is contingent. it is conditional on the evolution of the economy. i think we don't make that clear enough. a lot of people have been reading the statement as if it is a commitment and it is not a commitment. when you look at the s&p projection, it's pretty clear this is not a commitment. it's not a commitment and it shouldn't be interpreted as a commitment. >> carl, you are hip as to what the fed is talking about. just in case you're not, sep is the statement of economic projections that comes out quarterly on date when they have those forecasts and the press conference. >> i knew that, steve. you don't have to tell me that. i'm well aware of that. >> of course, you do. >> given income and spending today, we're going to enter a period, are we not, where the data is going to term the s&p all the good data we've had over the last couple weeks.

>> he was encouraged by the income statement. he said, all right, we're not spending it now, but it's good to see the income that's out there. but carl, a lot of the forecasts i've seen coming out of the friday gdp number, they're down 1.5% growth in the first quarter, so a lot of the economy is looking for a step-down in growth in 2012. >> thanks very much for bringing us that, steve. steve live in philadelphia. how jobs that moved overseas are coming back to the united states, possibly for good. we'll be back in just two minutes. >> as if the jobs report didn't already have your attention, we're about to raise the stakes. how would like to win -- wait for it, wait for it -- a mug. but not just any mug. it's a cnbc mug signed by the "squawk on the street" gang. if you can get the non-farm payroll number, it's yours. tweet us your guess at

cnbcsquawkstreet at the hash tag number. see if you're a winner. you know you want it the equity summary score consolidates the ratings of up to 10 independent research providers into a single score that's weighted based on how accurate they've been in the past. i'm howard spielberg of fidelity investments. the equity summary score is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.

. furniture maker bruce cochran restarted his family's furniture business last year in north carolina. he wanted to take advantage of

america rather than using cheap labor in china. here's a sneak peek. >> we're good. and when you're making money like that, you really don't see the consequences of some of the things that you're doing and the detriment -- people losing jobs here, i realize that i was really a big part of the problem. >> bruce kept hearing his father's voice. >> my daddy always said, it's not about making furniture, it's about people making furniture. i think about that all the time. it's about the people. >> we're joined this morning by harry smith in new york. harry, good to see you, as always. people making furniture. it's always good to do good, but you got to make some money in the process. how are they doing this? >> it's interesting because his family was in the furniture business since the civil war, and bruce sold the family business about 20 years ago, became the go-between between

furniture manufacturers in north carolina and guys who wanted to start manufacturing in china, made a very good living at it, and about a year or so ago he said, you know what? this table is starting to tilt in the direction of the united states. because 20 years ago, people in china are making 50 cents, a dollar an hour, whatever. now as that hourly wage goes up and up and up, shipping costs have improved, corruption has increased. all of a sudden now that table that was tilted so far in advantage to china is starting to level off, and they feel like, the experts we talked to say that a lot of jobs are going to start coming back to the united states. >> labor costs over there are one piece of the puzzle but access to capital here is always a question mark. has he found it easy or not? >> one of the best parts of this story is bruce, a tried and true professional, has absolutely done his due diligence. goes out, partners up with some of the best people in the business in the united states,

has a rock solid business plan, has millions of dollars to get the business started. went up and down the east coast, went to the south, went all over the country trying to sell his business plan, and he didn't get money until he went to his local banker. couldn't get money until he went to his local banker. >> interesting. we talk to a lot of small business owners who say, look, health care costs, tax uncertainty, political uncertainty all deterrents to growing right now. how much of that weighs on his mind? >> the guy is a good businessman. he's certainly weighing all that, but he's also looking at what is real opportunity. this is going to be the ground floor of opportunity, it feels like to me, for a lot of people around the country. look what's going on with automakers. foreign automakers almost can't build plants in the united states fast enough because they're so productive, the resources are here.

they're going to ship those things all over the world. we might be reaching a point of ripening where now is the time to act. wait too long and you may be missing the boat. >> i keep thinking back to the first piece you did on the premier of rock center involving jobs and fracing. couple that with how these places are adding up. they start taking shape in a big way. >> we were doing a follow-up on the fracing and the explosion in natural gas exploration. we spent some time in some plants last week in youngstown, ohio. a russian steel maker opening up a brand new pipe finishing plant, all the guys there on salary. there really is a kind of quiet revolution in manufacturing that's going on in the country, and it feels like it's this way. i mean, it feels like it's

accelerating by the week and by the month. >> and a new night. >> yeah, we moved to -- after the show tonight, we move to wednesdays in the not too distant future. >> harry, thanks a lot. >> good to see

>> that is one rocking suit, michael. you look fantastic. i can't imagine what it's like going down ocean boulevard.

you would think romney has this locked up. do you have any reason to doubt that? >> yeah, he has not sold his base message to the party yet. i think florida will be a goodwin for him as the polls would indicate, but as newt has said, rick santorum as said and certainly ron paul has made clear, this fight is not over. this is about a conversation these leaders want to have with the republican conservatives around the country, and it doesn't end in florida, it begins anew. the first three contests have been a split. this one now is going to go to one of them, probably romney, so you're one up on the rest of us. we've got primaries ahead of us, we've got caucuses in february. there is a lot more ground to cover here and i think it's exciting. >> the way ann coulter and bob dole and others circled around romney last week makes you believe the party is in risk of some damage if gingrich were to win.

do you think that's true? >> you heard the same sort of complaints during the hillary and obama clash in 2008. oh, this is going to fracture the party. it doesn't. unless it becomes personal, it doesn't. what it does do is strengthen the opportunity for a core activist to really drill down on these folks and for them to hone their message, hone their arguments. this is a national debate about the direction of the country, yes, but on another level is a national debate about the soul of the republican party and how we're going to define conservatism in the 21st century, and i think that's an important argument for romney to make and i think it's an important argument for newt, rick and paul to make. >> nice piece in the times today about jeb bush and the absence of his endorsement. some say he believes romney has to earn this, others say it might have something to do with his own political ambitions down the road. >> i think that's a twofer. i think there's truth in both of those. mitt has to show he has what it

takes to go up against probably one of the most successfully skilled politicians we've seen in a long time who is sitting in the white house. but also jeb has his own future ahead of him. he has great opportunities ahead of him in the party. he has good stead with folks across the spectrum. so yeah, that's a late political calculation, i'm sure. for someone like jeb, he's like, you don't just get my vote because. you have to show it, you deserve it, you earn it, and he's good to sort of sit back and let this thing unfold. >> some say he's troubled by the language in the party about immigration, especially in the faith. you agree with that? >> i absolutely agree with that. i think jeb is someone the party should listen to when it comes to immigration.

he is part of the reason for the growing latino and hiss tpanic population. i think the importance of being america that we think should be driving this discussion. >> chairman steele, always good to talk to you. enjoy tonight and tomorrow. michael steele joining us from miami. >> you got it. a few minutes left until the close. we'll bring it to you live with simon right after this break. ye, ameriprise financial has worked for their clients' futures. helping millions of americans retire on their terms. when they want. where they want. doing what they want. ameriprise. the strength of a leader in retirement planning. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you one-to-one. together for your future. ♪

 want to protect the house. right. but... home security systems can be really expensive. so to save money, we actually just adopted a rescue panther. i think i'm goin-... shhh! we find that we don't need to sleep that much. there's an easier way to save. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. but my nose is still runny. [ male announcer ] truth is, dayquil doesn't treat that. really? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms, plus it relieves your runny nose. [ deep breath ] awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is. that's the cold truth!

let's bring you simon hobbs as we count down to the close exactly 60 seconds away. we'll see what happens this afternoon, simon, but these discussions regarding greece are not exactly going well. >> no, they're not. and the news we've had on the markets coming into the close are quite notable, particularly among the frercnch banks. let me show you how we've lost ground on the three major indices as an example. so we've lost ground on the voices coming through to the end and that is parting because the banks have moved down. you saw the french banks there negatively, also sarkozy spoke about a new tax on national television last night, a 0.1% tax to come through end of

summer. but the other banks, notably the u.k. and germany, have also fallen on negative territory. let's wait for the close here. >> the european markets are closing now. >> so you can see that it is red very much across the board. notice down on the left, portugal, which is down over 2%. one of the problems we have now looming large in europe is what is going to happen in portugal. it is flashing red in more ways than one. let me show you the one-year chart of the extra that investors demand to hold portuguese debt over german spread. 1,500 basis points. that is a record high. the view is that portugal will not be able to come back to the fund market. that raises two questions. with there have to be a second bailout, and two, will they ask them to write down debt as they

have done in greece? let me leave you where we are on the other yields. we had a great week last week, clearly, a great week in which the peripheral market rallied call. that meant the yields were pushed down. people were getting all hot and bothered about the fact the european central bank didn't intervene last week. it didn't have to, we were rallying. clearly the yield are in writing as you see there. and in the meantime, of course, whether or not we've got the private sector doing the deal with greece on what it takes on those bonds, we've got to know whether or not europe is going to give them 130 billion or whether it has to be 140 billion in return for stumping up that cash. sooz

so as we saw over the weekend, it could be onerous in sacrificing sovereignty. >> yeah. different discussion there. >> for the first time we've seen the vicks go over the 20 mark. that's the first time in a couple weeks we've seen that, actually. we're also seeing a little bit of expansion of the range that we've seen the dow move in. it's been below 100 points this month, expanding a little bit to 130 today. a couple things to note here. despite the terms about the market being overextended, some are saying you have to look at this market to still manage to move up steadily throughout the year even though a couple things have been caught in its path. the underlying trend is fairly decent, i should say. a couple things to question about that most notably, what happens to the financials because they, of course, have been performing better so far this year. today they're pulling back, of

course, because of the weakness foreseen in the eurozone banks. a call for morgan stanley as they were forced to a downward direction as it has to recall earnings in this environment. questions about a slowdown in the u.s. economy, if it should happen this year, further slowdown, or if we see an acceleration that will impact bank of america as well. i do want to note two groups that are performing well today and have performed well throughout the year. the airlines have been very strong this year at 18%. down a little right now despite the deal talk, the dow talking about delta making a deal with us air, and obviously those would be performing higher.

it touched a six-month high just last week. i want to touch on biotech. they announced that diet drug-- diabetes drug, that once a week diabetes drug, that group which is up 20% so far this year as well. >> it gives you a chance to look back at the last four weeks. even though it's been slow and steady -- >> it's been impressive. it's just that when you get that far ahead of yourself, or the markets get that far ahead of themselves, it's healthy, it's expected, but traders say we're going into a seasonally strong part of the year. >> let's get to gary kominski who was looking at facebook at

the top of the hour. >> i was listening to mary talk about the airlines. the airlines continue to do great because there's been no ir rati irrational capacity. the first place to look for a solution is within the problem itself. if you think about that, we're approaching the two-year anniversary -- in most cases, people would say it started in february of 2010. this whole issue about sovereign credit issues in europe. the crazy thing is everything you read and everything you look at in terms of that quote i just read to you, the problem, no matter what the restructuring is, is that you cannot solve a debt problem with additional restructuring of debt. and it seems that everything i looked at and read and people i spoke with over the weekend continue to point out that whatever temporary solution may be, it's not going to be a long-term solution next week or the week after because the

fundamental solution of debt being reduced by restructuring doesn't solve anything. >> so you're looking guard to a default? >> it has to be a default where creditors who bought the insurance are actually getting the insurance protection, and those that did not, those that bought credit actually take a full haircut. that's what a restructuring has to happen for any credibility longer term. >> but gary, you're talking about a community of nations. if one takes that option out, everything has to be written down on the banks that we've gone through a number of times. >> listen, it's got to happen. at the end of the day, if you're going to sell credit, whether you're a sovereign nation or crippled organization or municipality, you're going to sell debt, you're going to ha

have -- remember, the first place to look for a solution is within the problem itself, and nothing i see happening in greece right now is doing just that. >> the problem is, if you stopped asking so many questions, if you have so many variables which could very well come into the situation, won't that mean that we'll have the panic he had last year where they can't exactly sell the sovereign debt that they have to and we find ourselves in a new form. >> i think a hard fault will have. but at the end of the day, i think the feeling or the hard defeat will protected. ult malts it's a very positive thing for capital markets.

>> you may well be right, gary. but you were assuming you have one event and it stops it and it send a chaen of unintended consequences that very rapidly accelerates to destroy kfsz. it's going to be a painful, catachlysma trkt event. the same overhang of uncertainty will be in place one year from today. >> we might get a chance to check your theory, gary. we will see in the next few weeks. bring in john from monster.com. i wonder if it weighs on your mind when deciding whether to push the buy button or not. >> well, gary, as he said, is certainly in mitt nort with his

opinion. i'm not saying he's wrong, but i don't see anybody and then see their currency go from 1 to $1 in one month. nobody wants to put their money there. >> you and your brother have been buying -- the perception out there is not that they will do what gary is saying, and right now, guys, ichk both of you have reported, simon in particular, probably a 60% ride-off seg cement, $40 v., not

for a number of days, but for about six years. forget about the banks that didn't do the hedging. i agree with gary on that. but if you didn't buy those credit default swap to ensure that sovereign debt, shame on you. however, if they let it go hard and soft, that is a completely different scenario. they do it a different -- in other words, 40 cents on the dollar is good, given the action telling you. >> real quickly, i'm somewhat heartened that apple screamed the highs of the day before we came on air here, apple has been strong throughout the day. it doesn't have to be bell weather, but it's not getting a facebook lift. this is an apple lift and we'll see who wants to follow along with them, carl. >> interesting.

if you took apple out of the index last week, that, too, would have been down. don't miss fast money's. >> he had the inside story on how facebook was created and now we'll find out what ben meznik thinks about facebook going public, in just a moment.

i heard they found energy here. it's good. we need the jobs. [customer:] we need to protect the environment. [worker:] we could do both. is that possible? [announcer:] at conocophillips, we're helping power america's economy with cleaner, affordable natural gas. more jobs. less emissions. a good answer for everyone. well, if it's cleaner and affordable. as long as we keep these safe. there you go. thanks. [announcer:] conocophillips.

some of the stories we're watching a little more than two hours into the trading day. mot motorola solutions ups buyback plan by $1 billion. gold man expects sluggish demand on the company staples business. and amylis surgeries 20% on drug approval of durian, surging as

high as 20% on that approval. when we come back -- how about $100 billion? that's facebook's valuation right now. after the break we'll talk to ben mezdik. he wrote the book on facebook, literally, and we'll see what he thinks about it going into the public market. in what passes for common sense. used to be we socked money away and expected it to grow. then the world changed... and the common sense of retirement planning became anything but common.

fortunately, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. take control by opening a new account or rolling over an old 401(k) today, and we'll throw in up to $600. how's that for common sense?

i can't comment as to timing, you know, but i do think that there is a possibility that we will be the largest offering in history. i don't know what the number is going to be. i think we're all eagerly anticipating that data. >> facebook is planning to ipo as early as this wednesday, according to reports. the company is being valued as much as $100 billion. ben mezdik and the author of "the accidental billionaires, the founding of facebook." you knew this was going to come. >> yeah, i knew it was coming.

i don't think mark zuckerberg planned to make so much money, but it had to come soon. >> why wouldn't he want this? >> mark is one of those guys who doesn't care about money. it was never about money. it was about keeping control of things and making sure facebook was something that came into all of our lives and we were all using it, and it was never about cashing out or anything like that. i think once you go public, once you have an ipo, it becomes an adult company. it's not a couple college kids anymore in a dorm room. >> do you see him staying active, still running the company even though it becomes public? >> i think he will. he's changed a lot since he was a geeky kid trying to meet girls or whatever. i mean, he's changed into a major force of nature in the internet certainly. i think he will stay in control. i think there is a lot of great people there, people like cheryl sandburg, who is amazing. it's a different company than it was when it started. i think it's ready to become an

adult company. >> what do you think, as the process of becoming public gets closer and we start talking about valuations and first-day run-ups, what do you think is important to them? >> it's kind of like the scene in "jurassic park" where the tie ran sawy -- tyranosaurus rex gets closer and things start to shake. they wanted to be a revolution, and to continue to be a revolution, i think that's going to be difficult now that everyone is looking at earnings and things like that, but i think their goal is to keep it the same company as when it started. >> i'm obsessed by another one of your books. everyone should know the eight rules of carney. number two is don't ever take anything at face value because

face value is the biggest lie of any market. nothing is ever priced at its true worth. the key is to figure out the real, in stricken sick value and get it for much, much less. you know you've done the work. who is going to win that tug-of-war? is the company going to become public at a valuation with an ipo price going to make money in the long term? >> it's a tough one. they're saying anywhere between 75 billion and $100 billion. it's an incredibly valuable company going forward. the question is whether they can maintain it over the next few years. i think they will. 800 million users now, and it's not one of those things you can take down with some other company. i don't know the answer to that question. >> ben, you know how mark zuckerberg is. when he sits down with the bankers, it's not going to be a typical pricing where he's going to really control much of the decision making. is it in his best interests -- you know the guy -- is he going

to want everybody here to make money as opposed to just trying to price the highest deal that they can get? >> it's a good question. i don't think mark really cares that much about money. there's so much people there, though, who are going to become instant millionaires and much more than that. everybody is going to try, obviously, to make it as big as possible. i think just looking forward you have to go by your gut and decide what really works. it's going to launch the size of mcdonald's, i think i read somewhere. >> as you said, you have to buy it at much, much less. if you follow the eight rules of carney, you've made a lot of money in a decade. >> as a user, we all think of how we use facebook, right? i use it a lot, it's great, i've never paid them a dime and it's good advertising in a way. do you have thoughts on how they're going to monetize this over the long term is this.

>> that's a good question. i'm with you, i kind of ignore the ads, so the ads have to stay so that it's not intrusive and doesn't hamper your user experience. i feel like there's a new page when i go on facebook, and i think a lot of people don't like that, but at the same time it's become so much a part of our lives, no one is really going to leaf facebook. if anything, we'll all be part of facebook the rest of our lives. so we have to get to love each other, and i think they have to be careful with the advertising to never make it intrusive and lose the user experience, and that's what it's all about. >> i think the winkelvy is never going to leave. with the ipo they're going to be worth a lot of money as well,

because they have a settlement worth 60 million at the time. i read somewhere it could be worth 200 million now. they should be happy, but i don't think they're going to give up. >> by the way, one of the tweets says your hair is spiking the vicks. if it goes down, it's your fault. >> if you are mark sucker berzu what's your status on facebook this morning? we'll read some of your ideas after this break. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be. ♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way.

learn more at keller.edu. what ? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it ? hello ? hello ?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello ? ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense.

"squawk on the street" for a monday, everybody will be talking about facebook all weekend long. if you're a zuckerberg, what is your facebook status this morning? tha that's our twitter question this morning. greg tweets, laughing all the way to the bank. obviously. have to come up with that one. goldtrader, a billion dollars sums up a lot of new acquaintances, and sorry,

winklevoss twins, you already settled. >> it's got a lot of great strategies than i've ever seen. every time there is a deal announced, the parties involved think it's going to be the best merger ever. i've said nine times out of ten, it doesn't mean earnings in the long term. but look at this company, thomas and betts. this is one of those mergers that continues to show modest surprise. revenue increases, earnings increases and a great outlook, and obviously comedy leverage to a lot of things people hope will happen here in the rebound sector. in terms of one out of ten, want to continue doing something positive, continues to execute. >> i respected a board of staples, d.r. horton and bank of america, victim of downgrades at various banks today.

reflecting offense along the street that maybe we've come too far to fast this year? >> i'm still looking at fundamental reasons. there's got to be a bunch of companies out there, wall street, that should deserve fundamental downgrades. we're still waiting for you to do it and we'll report it when we see them. >> you started recording various traders, one trader in particular who thought that on the spy we might be getting close to it. every day we trade a little lower, i can't forget how precious that call was. >> you and i both know he's in aspen, colorado, and i kind of wish i was there, too, right, carl? >> yeah. the vicks take anything away from that today? >> the vicks moved higher, but one would suspect if there was a real fear in terms of correction, it would be much highha