markets. >> you have a lot of people always coming on and saying, buy the super regional banks. now you're saying maybe take a second look. that does it for us. more "fast" at 5:00. follow me on twitter. "power lunch" begins right now. there are three hours to go in the trading day and just three more hours of action in the month of january. a sharp downside pull today, but solid gains for three major averages this month, including a big jump for the nasdaq. are we set up for a yearlong bull run or sit all downhill from here? amazon reports after the bell. this is supposed to be the biggest quarter ever for kindle sales. but is that good news or bad news for their bottom line? plus, shares of chipotle up. we'll find out whether the numbers will drive the stock even higher. >> i'm tyler mathisen along with sue herera and the big burrito, brian shactman.

this is "power lunch." three hours, of course, left in trading. better news from europe but home prices, consumer sentiment, chicago pmi, all disappointing. off the lows, down 50 in the dow, .25% in the s&p and less than .25% in the nasdaq. the euro is weaker now, below 1.31. and nat gas, warm weather, supplies are huge, down almost 8%. midday movers, radioshack getting buried. avery dennison down as well. archer daniels midland with a big drop. edwards lifesciences, positive results for its new heart

device. that stock up 6%. mckesson up and mattel up 5%. let's go to the trading floor of the nyse with bob pisani. >> we have a little bit of a problem. remember economic data has been improving for months now. that's been a real underpinning to our stock market, why we've been outperforming europe. but today chicago pmi, below expectations. consumer sentiment, below expectations. and the case-shiller home price index also disappointing, down three straight months. that's a problem. take a look at the homebuilders. great month for the homebuilders. but they've stalled out in the last few days. this is the first seriously negative day we've seen all month. same situation with energy stocks. not a lot of problems. a little bit of disappointment still on the news with exxon. that's 15 points there to the downside on the dow jones industrial average. but not dramatic effects on the rest of the energy group. schlumberger and some of the oil service names were actually on

the upside earlier in the day. sue mentioned how well we've done for the month. the nasdaq, great month as we had some real outperformance from apple, russell 2000, small cap also outperforming the big cap s&p 500. the chuckle everybody's had is for all the problems, greece still can't figure out the small cap involvement. greece up 17%. go figure. but remember, greece has dropped more than 80% in the last couple of years. >> bob, thanks so much. the bond market is telling a different story than the stock market recently. today, the ten-year slipping once again with the yield at 1.81%. rick santelli joins us from the cme. what's your interpretation, rick? >> whether it's the data bob mentioned or the generic notion that europe can't give us the details on greece, there may have to be a deal, a second deal for portugal. we see some deterioration in

unemployment rates in some of the countries in europe. and, of course, the u.s. with regard to our jobs scenario reminds me a lot of that picture that bob was showing regarding the greek economy. sure, greek stocks are up big, certainly jobs have rebounded. but look where they were, where the private jobs labor force was in 2008. intraday five-year chart, 71 basis points. open it up to a year, you won't find a lower yield because this is historic low yield. one-year chart of tens, only nine basis points away from a historical low yield that i think sue was referencing at 1.71 on september 27th. if you look at the last chart, this is an etf of the investment-grade lqd for securities making new all-time highs again today. tyler, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. let's switch on the "power lunch" power surge. home prices falling for a third consecutive month despite signs of improving in the housing market.

diana olick diving into the latest case-shiller report. diana, the numbers not so encouraging. >> reporter: not so encouraging, tyler. home prices sprooid surprise to the downside. the culprit, as we have warned all along, is the foreclosure pipeline speeding up now. the s&p case-shiller 20-city composite fell 3.7% annually in november, steeper than the 4% drop in october. 19 out of 20 cities saw prices deteriorate. home values back to where they were in mid 2003. getting back to foreclosures, atlanta is the poster child. great example, it has the largest number of foreclosed homes for sale by fannie and freddie. its prices have dropped 15% in the four months ending in february. atlanta has the 12th highest foreclosure rate in the nation. some report a new crisis low. and david blitzer suggested drastic action might be in store for the market as foreclosures increase. >> people come up with arguments

that, you know, take such and such a neighborhood, level it and dispense it off for the next 15 years until we need the land. then come back in. but that's in effect what's going to happen. >> reporter: we know a settlement between big banks and state a.g.s is imminent. there's a signing deadline for states this weekend. that will speed up the foreclosure process and put more pressure on prices. more on the blog. tyler. >> you just mentioned one thing, the state a.g.'s proposed settlement with some of the big lenders. the obama administration -- >> reporter: it's a double-edged sword. the president's plan, the program to expand modifications is going to take some time. and fannie and freddie haven't agreed to it. that's where the bulk of those

would come from. as for the a.g. settlement, yes, it will help if there's some principal writedown and helps save some borrowers from foreclosure. but it will put an end to the whole robo-signing problems and will inevitably speed up foreclosures as fanks now know what they can do, what is the plan and they don't have to worry about any more action down the rode from a.g.s. >> i wish i had one of those robo-signers. my hand was hurting by the end of it. to politics now, decision day in florida. republican voters are casting their ballots in today's primary and the latest polls show it may be a big day for mitt romney. eamon javers is in tampa. eamon, does a big romney win knock out newt gingrich or not? >> reporter: well, it might. depends on whether you ask newt gingrich that question. it is a beautiful day for voting here in florida. about 80 degrees and sunny. brings a beautiful end to what has been a bitter and occasionally nasty primary campaign here between newt

gingrich and mitt romney. but romney came out to talk to reporters earlier today and he said, you can't really blame him for the negative tone of this campaign. take a listen to what he had to say. >> he really can't whine about negative campaigning when he launched a very negative campaign in south carolina and when the people here in florida looked at the different campaigns, they concluded his was the most negative. >> reporter: a few minutes ago, newt gingrich's campaign put out new fund-raising numbers. $10 million raised so far for the last quarter of 2011. that's enough to have a little bit of gas in the tank going into the rest of these campaigns. gingrich was asked earlier what his plans were and he said that he's not dropping out. he's waiting for mitt romney to do that. that's where we stand in florida. >> thank you very much, eamon javers. the economy will be the defining issue of the 2012 race. today at the white house, president obama unveiling a series of initiatives he hopes

will jump-start small business. hampton pearson is in washington with more on that story. >> reporter: hello, tyler. this is president obama acting as chief executive cheerleader, if you will, for bipartisan efforts under way in congress to extend tax breaks for small businesses. now at the start of a cabinet meeting, president obama said he would sign legislation right away. the specifics, permanent elimination of capital gains tax rates for investments in small businesses and a one-year extension on all business detuxs for the cost of new equipment and software. >> it is a symbol of how important it is for us to spur entrepreneurship, to help start-ups, to move aggressively so that we can assure more companies that create the most jobs in our economy are getting a leg-up. >> reporter: the president also going on to tell his cabinet

members that he's urging each department to come up with more ideas, encourage investment, create jobs and, of course, boost the economy. tyler? >> hampton, thank you very much. super bowl media day is here. players and coaches of the giants and the pats talking to the world's press about everything from the big game, global politics to their favorite colors. our darren rovell joins us with the highlights so far. hey, darren. >> reporter: that's right, ty. actually the nfl for the first time ever selling tickets to the public for this media day, even though they couldn't really hear the players. 7,300 tickets. the media asking tom brady what he thought about this giants/pats match-up. >> when i got to the team, it was always red sox/yankees. we've had some pretty meaningful games against the giants over the last few years. i don't think anyone's disappointed that it's the giants. >> reporter: i guess that qualifies as a serious question.

vince wilfork was then asked what his pregame ritual was. >> that's probably the only thing every night before a game, it's chicken. i don't know. whatever i put in me, i know it's going to get burned up real quick. >> reporter: that follow-up question was how much. he said he didn't know. giants wide receiver victor cruz only makes $450,000 but he has signed a deal with representation firm img for his marketing. he's the guy who does the salsa. he'll probably make more than $450,000 if he can win super bowl mvp. >> thanks, darren. we have weeklong coverage of the super bowl on our nbc networks. it's all leading up to that big game on nbc. cannot wait. sunday. >> football night in america. the big night. straight ahead, the january

effect, the dow up 3.5%. s&p, 4.5%. nasdaq, 8%. what happens now? >> will we see the bulk of the year's gains in the first quarter? and what movers should you really put your money in right now? answers on the other side of a very quick break. across the golden state,cons where everyone has been unbelievably nice. mornin'. i guess i'm helping them save hundreds on car insurance. it probably also doesn't hurt that i'm a world-famous advertising icon. cheers! i mean, who wouldn't want a piece of that? geico. ah... fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent oh dear... or more on car insurance. all in one account.

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let's check out shares of bp and halliburton. both up in a down market. a judge has ruled bp must reimburse halliburton for some compensatory damage claims relating to pollution from last year's gulf oil spill. but bp is not required to indemnify halliburton where punitive damages are concerned. for more on the energy markets, let's go to sharon epperson at the nymex. >> oil prices are below $100 a barrel. we've seen some volatility in the oil space. but really it's kind of gone in tandem with what we've seen in equities and the euro as well. continuing to watch a little bit of strength in gasoline and heating oil futures. we have the expiration of the february contract today. that is adding to some of the upside momentum, traders are saying. we're also watching what's happening in light of this looming refinery strike possible here in the u.s. as the union workers try to solidify a new contract by midnight tonight. keep your eye on natural gas as well.

we're seeing bearish fundamentals are accelerating the downward trend in natural gas. broken through 2.50 at one point today. and gold prices basically flat. but look at the gain since august. seeing the biggest monthly gain since that time. >> thank you very much, sharon. stocks trading lower but the s&p is poised to close january with a 4% gain. that would be its best month since october. in fact, investors received a pretty bullish sign earlier. the s&p 50050-day moving average moved above the 200-day moving average. this is what's known as the golden cross. it usually indicates a shift in momentum and gains in the index six months from now. so are better times really ahead? let's bring in uri landisman and

michael farr. uri, better times six months down the road? >> i pay a little bit of attention to it. it's a commonly followed index so it's being discount add little bit. what we think is going to happen, there is significant resistance here on the s&p at 1,360. my gut is we don't break through 1,360 meaningfully right now. if we do -- i mean, on a day we get a rip-up to 1,375. then you bring 1,425, which i think is the high for the year into play right now. if we fail, i think you see a major correction and then about six months from now, a rally. but a rally beginning off a floor much lower than where we are right now which i think will take us back up to that 1,360, 1,375 level. >> michael, weigh in on the golden cross and whether you agree with that uri just outlined? >> it's nice, it's good. it's not bad. it's better than a sharp stick in the eye certainly. january's been a good month. we like that.

but a golden cross in another type of recovery, i think, would be more meaningful. but promises of q.e. 3 after what the fed just said at last week's meeting, that they're going to extend this period from mid 2013 to late 2014, i think there are some concerns, combine that with europe and i say be very careful. but when news is bad like this, stocks are not overvalued. there are some investment opportunities when times are like this. >> you basically seem to be saying that the gains are going to be front-loaded, that there's going to be continuing volatility, which most investors, i think, don't like. maybe you like the volatility because it gives you opportunity. but if that is your hypothesis, what should i put my money for the best sort of combination of return in safety in 2012? >> well, i think in general what

you want to be doing is investing in funds that are not tied into the market. so i think it's a very important year to be market neutral. if you don't want to do that, what i would do is first of all try to time things. if in fact we rally somewhere near the 1,400 level, i would go short big-time. after that, after the correction, what i'd be looking for, i think, is the industry's most exposed to mergers and acquisitions activity. where we're focusing our efforts there and finding targets are in, let's say, the natural gas area, the biotech area and certain parts of computer software. >> michael, last year dividends were all the rage. you got paid at least while you wait and waited out some of the volatility, certainly. this year, a lot of people think that's not wh where you should be. a number of those stocks are overextended, along with utilities. where would you be employing new cash? >> well, i listen to uri and i'm always amazed at people who can

do what he is doing. i can't do it. i don't know how to do it. our average hold for a stock is four years. i manage a lot of money for retirees and for pensions and for folks that need to be more defensive. so i like kind of the multinational large cap stocks with solid balance sheets and good dividends. i think at a 13 or 14 times multiple, if we can get 5% or 6% earnings growth, collect a 2% dividend with an even multiple, you've got an 8% return, that looks awfully good from where i'm sitting. so i tend to say -- i don't know how to get in or out. but this longer-term approach -- i think with the opportunities we're seeing in terms of valuations, is compelling for long-term investors. >> thanks, gentlemen. have a great day. up next, amazon reports earnings after the bell. i'm reading what you're supposed to be reading. >> that's okay. >> this should be the biggest quarter ever for kindle sales. plus, a big decision over at apple. they've hired an exec from

outside the company to run their multibillion-dollar retail operation. what it means for apple's expansion plans. ty and i are back in two. so, how was school today ? i have to be a tree in the school play. good. you like trees. well, i like climbing them, but i've never been one. good point. ( captain ) this is your captain speaking. annie gets to be the princess. oh... but she has to kiss a boy. and he's dressed up like a big green frog ! ewww. ( announcer ) fly without putting your life on pause. be yourself nonstop. american airlines.

welcome back to "power lunch." before i get to 3 in 30, i want to mention the nasdaq has turned positive on the day.

let's turn to shares of sears holding, selling off. cit will stop lending money to suppliers. and wants more information for handing out money. rad radioshack's warning on profits having a ripple effect on its buyers. whatever the reason, brick and mortar is selling off today. limited brands outperforming after announcing a dividend increase from 80 cents to a share up to $1. amazon.com gearing up to report earnings after the bell. it isradioshack, by the way. investors will be looking very closely at kindle sales. the stock up 10% this year. will the kindle fire up amazon? our jon fortt is in the house. welcome, jon. >> thanks, tyler. one thing i can almost guarantee is that the kindle will not fire up profits, at least not in the near term. wall street's looking for 19 cents of eps on revenue of $18.2

billion. it's actually a high bar. that would be a 40% sales increase over last year. normally q1 guidance wouldn't matter so much. but in this case, investors are likely to be antsy about how soon some of amazon's investments in warehouses, shipping and hardware are going to pay off. expect extra attention to the operating income guide. let's zero in on the kindle fire. i'm not convinced this is the biggest gamble amazon's made in a decade. it launched in november. analysts estimate probably 6 million of them were sold. it's around 220 bucks once you factor in accessories. these probably have zero margin when you factor in one month of prime shipping that amazon is giving away free to kindle buyers. amazon needs kindle buyers to become amazon junkies. but it didn't slow ipad sales at all in the holiday quarter.

we'll need a couple of quarters to see how well it's working. >> let's talk a little bit about apple. they have announced they have hired a new retail chief to replace the departing fellow who went over the jcpenney. who is he and why was he the choice? and he comes from outside, not inside? >> that's right. john bride. his most recent job was ceo of dickson's. you look at the numbers, dixons saleswere $13 billion. apple's retail sales were $14 billion. dixon has around 38,000 employees. apple has 36,000 retail employees. on that, it's about the same size. >> scale to scale. >> the number of stores, dixons has 1,200. apple has 357. apple getting a lot more -- >> can you deduce from the gentleman that they picked tha they are looking to expand more in europe or not? is that the assumption? >> absolutely. you look at the numbers. they've opened twice as many stores internationally in the past year or two years than they

have domestically. and they've also said they're looking to fix up u.s. stores but really open up new stores in europe and in asia. here's a guy who knows that european market. where apple's growth hasn't been what you might hope it would be compared to even u.s. growth. maybe he can accelerate that since he know that is consumer so well. he was at tesco before he was at dixo dixons. >> which is also a huge chain. thanks, jon. speaking of apple, apparently its voice recognition software named siri is having a hard time understanding one of mel gibson's most memorable characters. >> just one chance! our enemies may take our lives but they'll never take our freedom! >> now, to be fair, a lot of people have had a hard time understanding mel gibson lately. but "the l.a. times" report that is siri has trouble picking up and understanding a scottish accent. although that hasn't stopped the

scott scots from purchasing the advice. we wonder if sean connery has one. >> i say let's have him on and find out. up next, it is the big buzz of the week. facebook expected to file for its ipo within the next 24 hours. kayla tausche is going to tell you what investors should look for in the papers. plus, ryan seacrest, clear channel taking a stake in his production company. top p/e firms putting up millions to develop new seacrest ventures. bob pittman who join us and tell you why he's betting big on ryan. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm brian shactman. it's a relatively quiet market. but the nasdaq has turned positive. i know it's just fractionally. but it's positive. if you look at the s&p 500, it's fractionally negative. not saying we're going to finish positive. but we're turning and the dow is well off its lows. really being dragged down by a couple of names. let's start with exxonmobil. it's down almost 2%. it beat estimates but volume was disappointing and the basic truth about the oil giant is they have to spend billions to

make billions. and then there's pfizer that's down just a little bit above 1%. solid numbers but this is yet another company that had lower guidance because of a stronger u.s. dollar. moving beyond the dow, tyco having a pretty good day. up 3.25%. and to some, it's surprising. guidance is below consensus but that split into three entities remains on schedule for this coming fall. on the downside, we've been watching a few names starting with cnh global, farm equipment maker. future growth failing to impress investors. down almost 10%. u.p.s. beat by a penny but revenue was light. guidance solid and stock buybacks do continue. that stock down 1%. and lexmark beat on eps and revenue was five. but guidance well below consensus. seems to be a major drag on that stock, down 1.25%. now to the facebook ipo, the initial papers could be filed as early as tonight. it is the talk of a major media

conference under way right now in california. julia boorstin is live in l.a. with all the buzz. hey, julia. >> reporter: tyler, the buzz about facebook's pending s1 is that ceo mark zuckerberg is trying to file by tomorrow. it's still in the works. i heard why facebook needs to file now. sources tell me the company wants to start trading in time for its six-month stock lock-up period to expire before the end of the year, allowing employees to file before the capital gains tax hike in 2013. the keynote speaker last night could not avoid questions about what facebook's ipo means for his company. >> we don't care about what the market window is for going public and whether there is a window and when it closes or anything like that. i don't pay any attention to that and i try to get everyone else in the company not to pay any attention to that. so it will be fascinating to see

what happens. i'm sure everyone will stay up wednesday night and read the s1. but i just can't focus on that. >> reporter: he acknowledged that twitter will eventually run into that 500 shareholder rule as well as pushback from employees and investors. but he made it very clear that he would rather not deal with the hassle of going public. he also told me after he left the stage that he suspects that mark zuckerberg would also rather not be bogged down by the hassle and all the paperwork associated with getting ready for that ipo right now. back over to you. >> thank you very much, julia. of course the exact time line of the facebook filing is still coming together. but the initial paperwork could tell us an awful lot. kayla tausche is looking at that part of the story. so what are investors going to be looking for and poring over if it does come on wednesday? >> reporter: those documents can be as long as 400 pages that we've seen. the s.e.c. has no hard-and-fast rules for those so-called s1s.

first and foremost, the financials. in-depth earnings data going back the last three years finishing with the fourth quarter of 2011. also the company will lay out its growth forecast and what its margins are. facebook gets most of its revenues from advertising which, like google, it showed in 2004 in its s1 margins of 41%. people are saying facebook's could be higher than that. it will serve as a source of bragging rights for wall street banks and stock exchanges. but the company can exclude those details in its first edition of its filing. that's often seen as a good tactic to foster competition between the banks and exchanges on pricing that deal. the actual size of which will be replaced by a placeholder like 100 million bucks or so. mark zuckerberg's contemporaries issued colorful issues. but they have to disclose acquisitions and what their

patents look like. and customer relationships. but the docs will show who owns more than 5% of the social network. as of now, we know of digital sky, the original harvard brain trust and mark zuckerberg himself. but there are always surprises here. >> fascinating stuff. we'll learn who owns what, where the money comes from, how much money they earn and what their margin is. >> and what they're going to use it for. >> and what they're going to use the cash for. exactly. >> you're going to be busy, kayla. >> thanks a lot. get your speed reading up to par there. speaking of tech and media pioneers, bob pittman certainly fits the bill. he now oversees clear channel's global media properties, including the nation's largest radio network and outdoor advertising properties. because it takes a media mogul to recognize another in the making, mr. pittman just inked a

huge deal with ryan seacrest's production company. mr. pittman joins us on the phone. bob, good to have you with us again. >> thank you very much. >> let's start with facebook. i know it's not something that maybe you think about all the time. but you have had experience with digital media properties. you're hip-deep in it. what do you think about the facebook ipo, the valuations, how they're going about it, et cetera? >> it's tough to say on the valuations. i think i share everyone's opinion that you've heard, i'm sure they're not dying to go public. but they've built a great platform. they are, in my mind, the second walled garden after aol. if you want to play on facebook, you have to join facebook. from my experience, they partner very well. they've done a very good job of bringing people into that walled garden as partners. and built a pretty big platform. >> bob, let's talk about clear channel. every time we have you on, it seems that clear channel is

going in yet another direction. in time it's a partnership with ryan seacrest. why ryan seacrest? what do you want to get out of it and it sounds as though you're taking clear channel to yet another level. >> well, i think everything we're talking about, i hope, is consistent, which is that we see clear channel as having this very valuable platform, this great relationship with consumers and we have in the past monetized it to almost exclusively through advertising. and i think we're looking at that platform and saying, there are a lot of other things we can do. ryan, i think, is someone who we really think is a star in many ways, not only the obvious way, which is as on-air talent. but he's also a great businessman. he's a tireless worker. he has fantastic ideas. we want to do more with him. what we bring to the marriage here is the ability to use these assets that clear channel has, these relationships with the consumer, the ability to promote heavily, quickly in a forceful

way with this tremendous reach clear channel has with the radio alone, over 230 million monthly users. and if we can use that to differentiate his productions from other shows and to give him an edge through promotion, i think that's very important for him and allows us to create value is that we capture by being in business with ryan. and again, i think -- i've been around a long time. i think you bet on winners. almost everything ryan has touched has turned to gold. we love him and we're excited about supporting him. >> i spend my nights, bob, thinking about, what is it that ryan has that i don't got, man? what is it that he has? i don't know what it is. i've never thrown a question at you that you have not had a smart answer for. so indulge me this time. you are in business -- your majority partners are big partners. when you hear private equity take the criticism in the political debate that it has this year and will, including

criticism of bain where mr. romney came from, what's your reaction? >> well, i think it's interesting. people keep talking about all their wins and the money they make on their wins. what they don't talk about is the money they lose on their losses, the ones that don't make it. and i think the reason you want private equity there to put up the money is they're willing to take a risk. it doesn't always work out. as a matter of fact, if you examine the portfolios, many of the deals they do are losers. the only reason a fund is positive is you have more winners than losers. but we need people in this marketplace willing to take that risk, willing to make capital available for entrepreneurs who grow. they're paint this had picture as somehow they take companies, ha hollow them out and make a profit. that's not what i see. they need often to go -- we were just talk about facebook going public. it's often companies want to go private buzz they need to make a

transition. they don't need the pressures of quarterly earnings. they need people who believe they will come out the other end, which by the way, they may not. i think you're asking people to take a big risk. these people do take a big risk. if we only focus on the winners and the winning investments they have, you're missing the whole picture. there are private equity funds that don't return 100% of the capital. there are people taking tremendous risk on companies that are going through a very risky time. the public markets aren't going to support them. you can't go out and raise public funds to do that. these people are performing a very important function for our economy. and if we want to t united states to be a robust economy and to continue to lead on the business front and take risk and innovate, we have to have this capital available. and it scares me when people try to scare people out of this sector. >> bob pittman, thank you. that was a complete answer. i know you didn't expect me to ask that one. but you were ready for it. congratulations on the arrangement with mr. ryan

seacrest. >> good luck, bob. after the break on "power lunch," it's lunchtime. we have to talk chipotle mexican grill. reports its earnings tomorrow. shares have been on fire, hitting new highs. should you buy the stock ahead of the numbers. cnbc profiles the republican presidential candidates in today's florida primary. >> newt gingrich, born on june 17th, 1943, in harrisburg, pennsylvania. gingrich represented georgia in congress for more than 20 years. he serbed ved as speaker of the house from 1995 to 1999. he also served on the defense policy board under president george w. bush. gingrich won the south carolina primary. watch cnbc's special coverage of the florida presidential primary tonight at 7:00 p.m. [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field.

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let's check in with scott wapner and see what stocks are on his radar. >> i'm watching groupon today. interesting movement in the stock. it's not up all that much. it's been down about 4% year to date. there are concerns about merchants cutting back. the company is going to report earnings on february 8th. so they're obviously going to be very closely watched. evercore has on interesting note today. groupon has extended its lead over living social. that's a positive. and billing expectations are low enough that you could see the potential for an upside surprise out of groupon. there's a price target of $28 on the stock. it's trading just shy of $20. there is some considerable upside that could be seen over the next 12 months. he has an equal weight on the stock. but it's going to be another one of those social media stocks closely watched going forward. i know that -- what's the other one? the one that's going to -- facebook. geez. facebook is the one that everyone's talking about.

>> you need a little mexican food, scott! you need a little chipotle burrito, right? >> you guys take it away from me. the one everybody's talking about, the one i can't remember. >> go get some lunch and some coffee. speaking of chipotle, it recently hit fresh 52-week highs, though it is trading down about .25% today. the company reports fourth-quarter earnings tomorrow after the bell. do you buy ahead of the results? bart glenn joins us. good to see you, bart. nice to have you here. >> thank you, sue. >> you have a buy on the stock. what's your new price target? >> our new price target is $440. we think the stock still has a ways to continue running. >> based on what? what fundamentals are in place that keep pushing chaipotle to these new 52-week highs? >> it's been driven by transaction growth. people are coming to the store more frequently, bringing in new customers. additionally, they're opening a

lot of stores. they still have several years of very strong growth ahead of them. >> are you worried at all about input costs? they're in that space where commodity costs have been going up. can they handle that? >> that's an issue for the entire restaurant industry. but i think they're well set up to deal with that. chipotle put in a 4.5% price increase. they've seen virtually no pushback from customers. traffic trends remain very strong. >> why is that? we're in an economy that is slow growing, maybe that's an exaggeration by some accounts, yet they still can put in almost a 5% increase in prices? >> yeah, a couple of things are driving that. they deliver a great experience for a good value. it's not about being the absolute lowest price. they provide a very good meal. service standards are high and very consistent. there's a lot of competitors out there who have not been elevating the experience.

as a result, they're donating share to the likes of chipotle. >> what worries you? what could derail this particular story which has been a very good one basically since they went public? >> i think one thing that's always a concern on the short-term basis is what are short-term expectations? i think short-term expectations are quite reasonable and i think the market continues to focus more on the long-term opportunity, which i think is very bright and people are still gaining appreciation for the long-term opportunity here. >> what do you want to hear on the call about the labor investigation? the company was rated. some of the employees had to be let go because they did not have the proper papers. chipotle said it was singled out on that. what do you want to hear on the call about that? >> it's an important issue for the entire service industry, i think. they're likely to say there isn't a complete resolution but that indications are that things are moving forward in a favorable manner. it doesn't sound like they're

requesting additional information at this point. i think we may get an update that is favorable or at least probably unlikely to see anything that would be negative. >> bart, thanks a million. good to see you. >> thank you. have a good day. >> bart is done with us. so, ty, over to you. up next on "power lunch," almost $30 billion have been pumped into etfs so far this year. so how should these funds play into your retirement portfolio? stick around. we have some answers. mornin'. i guess i'm helping them save hundreds on car insurance. it probably also doesn't hurt that i'm a world-famous advertising icon. cheers! i mean, who wouldn't want a piece of that? geico. ah... fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent oh dear... or more on car insurance. all in one account.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm seema mody with your three stocks in 30 seconds. starting with vertex pharmaceuticals, shares were halted but are now climbing higher after getting an fda approval. sticking with the biotech space, check out biogen. numbers beat street estimates. their 2012 guidance fell short. lastly, take a look at starbucks, making their way into india, opening outlets under a deal to tap into the country's fast-growing coffee market. back over to you. >> seema, thank you very much. assets in exchange traded funds now top $1 trillion.

at more near all-time records, according to index universe. as etfs are playing a bigger role in the average american portfolio, how should they figure into your retirement? sharon epperson looks now at the pros and cons of going all in on etfs. sharon? >> nearly $29 billion flowed into etfs just last month. and last year, we saw that the amount of money that went into etfs was nearly double that of the money that flowed into actively managed funds. i wanted to sit down with a group of experts to find out their views on actively managed funds versus etfs. most like etfs for asset classes but said you need to be wary about etfs based on a broad market index. >> an index is a ship without a rutter in a market like this. you're going to go up with it and down with it. it's going to be cheap but you have zero chance of outpacing the market if you're buying the index itself. >> the other thing you have to be careful with, the index as

doug said, they're without a rutter. the biggest determinant of performance is not actually your investments. it's more so your investment allocation. and the number one factor people are not invested appropriately is because of themselves. it's because of their emotion and their emotion being the rutter of their portfolio. and so if that volatility of the index funds are just following it up and following it down is going to cause you to deviate from where you need to be, you really need to look at that portfolio and work with an investment adviser. >> doug? >> what most average investors want to do is buy more of what they had in their portfolio that did the best. that's not what they want to do. they want to sell some of that and buy what did the worst. >> is it too hard to say, i like actively managed funds or i like the etfs? sit a case-by-case scenario? how does an investor choose? >> to me, etfs are cheap.

they're much less expensive than the actively managed and they're highly correlated. so i like etfs. but, again, it's all the assets allocation because 90% of your returns are directly a result of how your assets are correlated. i'm a big advocate of etfs. >> specifically financial adviser ivory johnson likes the ishares etf as well as the ishares s&p 500 etf. he says they're cheaper, that's one of the reasons why he likes them. but actively managed funds may outperform when there's volatility. if you want to lessen that volatility, then you get some alternative assets classes with those etfs. tyler? >> you know, i wonder, sharon, whether people are going into etfs more because they want to speculate on a sector in the market and less for the reason that was always the most attractive part for me, which was the low cost and the fact that you didn't have some manager in there messing it up. >> that's absolutely right. it seems to be the case when you

look at where the money is flowing because it's flowing into these emerging market etfs. these are very risky plays here. talking about $3 billion into the vanguard emerging market etf and $2 billion is the ishares emerging market etfs. those are the most popular ones so far this year. people want to take on some risk and they're doing it through etfs. >> sharon, thank you very much. coming up, just over two hours left in the trading day, our picks for charts of the day when we come back. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future.

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welcome back to "power lunch." let's take a look at the markets now. the nasdaq actually turned positive about 20 minutes ago. now it's back in negative territory by five points. not a lot but it is negative. the dow 20 points worse than when we started this grand show called "power lunch." >> you want to see the changing face of american retail? look at our top of the charts today. radioshack announcing their fourth-quarter numbers weren't going to be very good. amazon's come out after the bell. a look at best buy, radioshack and amazon over the past five years. amazon up 400%, best buy down 52%. and