good. i look staying there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. i will see you tomorrow. hey, larry, rubio tonight. huge guest! romney is's free market capitalist. good evening, everyone. i'm kudlow. this is "the kudlow report." he's putting a commanding victory in florida. some of the polls have closed in florida and it's buzzing at the top of the hour, cnbc will be here to give you all of the results and before that, we have some sizzle stories to bring you. one of them is a complete outrage. federal government workers spent 48% more in benefits than their private sector counterparts. it's unbelievable. and rising gop star senator marco rubio from florida is my special guest tonight to talk about the republican party message in congress and on the campaign trail, and here's an anti-sizzle. the congressional budget office,

cbo, its new year forecast expects another trillion dollar deficit and an 8.9% year-end unemployment rate and 2% growth in 2012. that's it. bad numbers for america. bad numbers for president obama, but we begin tonight with all of the breaking news. polls in florida are beginning to close and cnbc's own eamon j javers is in tampa. i understand you just spoke with governor romney. >> i spoke very, very briefly, indeed with governor romney as he was going into the marriott hotel which is just around the corner from where we are in tampa tonight. he was on his way into an event. i asked him how he thought he did tonight, and he said i hope we did very well. he looked to be in very high spirits. he was surrounded by family members and they were dashing into the hotel going into an event and he had all of the look of someone who went into today 15 points up in the polls as he was as this morning started today and also they got an early

look at a lot of the early voting that came in over the past couple of weeks and romney campaign worked very hard on that as well, but we've got new data today from the gingrich camp, so no matter what happens here, gingrich's folks had the cash to compete and they released their fourth quarter sec filings showing they raised $9.8 million in the fourth quarter and cash on hand. that's very important going forward of $2.1 million for the gingrich folks so larry, gingrich has been saying today that no matter what happens here in florida, he's going to go all of the way possibly as far as the convention which would be right back here in tampa, larry. >> eamon, what issue is there no debates for quite some time. debates have been newt gingrich's benchmark. that's been his spearhead. what's up with that? how does he last? he's not going to do well in these next couple of caucuses. they're all pro-romney, particularly in nevada which is coming up in a couple of day snoops it's going to be really

tough, larry. particularly because the caucuses, their organization is so important and romney has that in spades and when you talked to the romney people, they say they're happy and into the end of february and they think newt gingrich has been able to bottle lightning in a couple of these debates and turn the equation here in this campaign a couple of times. so larry, they're happy that they don't have to stand on a stage next to newt gingrich any time in the immediate future. >> eamon javers, we'll see you later in the program. thanks very much. let's switch gears a little bit. the white house wants to raise government salaries next year, this despite a new cbo report that shows federal employees already earn $16% more than their private sector counterparts are including an incredible 48% increase in benefits. it is set to vote on a new bill that would freeze all federal pay for another year. let's talk. we have house members, charlie rangel, democrat from new york

and sean duffy, republican from wisconsin and the sponsor of the pay freeze bill. mr. sean duffy, let me start with you, 16% overall spread between federal government union workers and private counterparts. >> sure. >> cash wages, not so big. 2%, and on the other hand, benefits up 48%. that is an off the charts outrage as everybody in america tries to tighten their belt. what, if anything, can you do about this, sean? >> so here's what we're doing. we're in the midst of a two-year pay freeze that the democrats passed in the past congress. this zannex is an extension of the pay freeze. we have american taxpayers, payer who have taken cuts in pay, those who have reduced work hours and we'll ask for those private sector employees to pay for a federal government increase in pay, and we'll

continue the pay freeze and bring more parody. >> charlie rangel, besides the wage fay freeze, what about the benefits? 48% better benefits if you work for the federal government. >> i thought you were bringing me out to talk about the republican debates and all of that, but since you want to talk about smellingomething else, th political fact is people lost their jobs, lost their homes, their savings and hope, you've got to find a scapegoat and what a better scapegoat than public employees. the truth of the matter is that, yes, we should cut the deficit. we should adjust to make the tax system more fair and it seems cruel not to cost the living and people that are not responsible in the slightest way for the great debt that our country has

accumulated, but from the political point of view, i think it's the right thing to do in order to try to ease the pain. it has nothing to do with the deficit except the symbolic and the -- oh, come on, there's no savings here hardly at all. you know it, and i know it. there's no savings. >> hold on a second. sean duffy -- >> we have to talk about this. charlie rangel himself voted for a freezing pay for federal employees in the last congress. the only difference in my bill is that congressmen and women are included in the pay freeze, and i wonder why charlie doesn't want to include members of the house and the senate in the pay freeze and they're calling members of congress in the pay freeze. >> young man, i am with you. i said that is a good, political position to take and that's all it is. it has nothing to do with the deficit, but when people feel pain you have to show that you

are making i sacrifice yourself. that is why we say there should be a surtax on the millionaires so that everyone appears as though they're making some type of sacrifice. >> charlie wants to talk about taxes. this is the straightforward bill that says let's continue the freeze. simpson bowles, the president's own commission said we should have a federal pay freeze for three years. this is partisan politics that the democrats are playing right now and it doesn't make sense. most americans agree the 16% differential between private sector employees is too much. this is a common-sense -- >> what about a co-pay, gentlemen? why shouldn't the federal, woers have a much larger contribution? why shouldn't you turn these things into defined contributions instead of defined benefits and have them make a larger contribution? why not bring them into the modern world? >> why not adopt the obama affordable care bill? why not have a broad-based thing

where there's competition? why do you insist on having just the insurance companies making the money at the expense of the worker? why not broaden the pool so that everyone can get a better opportunity to get healthcare? he says -- there i go again talking about the tax system, weave got one of the worst tax systems in the whole industrial world, and we should really reform that. >> sean, i want to give you the last word, sean. what about co-pay? if i'm not mistaken paul ryan wants a bigger co pay, maybe up to 50%. doesn't that have to be part of this story? >> we're talking medicare, but the 16% differential is the whole pay package. >> right. >> i'm talking benefits. i'm talking health care benefits which are 48% higher than the private sector counterparts. >> that's what it is. >> no doubt, but what i don't understand is why charlie rangel and the democrat allies hate the private sector. why does he want the private sector to pay for increased salaries for the federal

employee? that doesn't make sense. the american people have called foul on that and they agree that we shouldn't have a three-year -- >> i gave you the last word. >> since when do senior members have to yield to the youth of tomorrow here? he can't take yes for an answer. i told him he has a good political bill, and i will be supporting it, and he's still beating me up on it. but he's new and so -- >> no -- >> seniority, that's all i'm say ppg. >> i have to get out, gentlemen. congressman charlie rangel, thank you so much. sean duffy of wisconsin, we appreciate it now. let's go to the senate side. we are joined by mark warner, and the republican from kansas. gentlemen, you may have heard that debate. i have other fish to fry, but i want you to weigh in on that, senator werner, this is an unbalanced picture and why shouldn't federal workers have a bigger co pay contribution for the benefits? i'm talking about the benefit side. federal workers have been under a pay freeze for the next two

years, and we have to look at retirement system and it ought to be part of the greater package which included that greater co-pay, but it was the whole simpson bowles approach that said let's go ahead and form a tax code and reform the entitlement system. one of the things that i think is interesting is the house, at least, keeps coming back for the single pay for all of the time for the federal workers when that study you referenced did show higher pay for lower wage federal employees, but for higher wage federal employees that says the private sector's ahead. does the co-pay need to be looked at? absolutely on the part of the bigger tax reform initiative. >> i'm all for the bigger picture. mr. moran, welcome back. i want to ask you about another cbo report. 8.9% unemployment by the end of the year and only 2% growth for the whole year and another year of trillion dollar deficits. now, look, president obama hardly mentioned any of this stuff at all in his state of the union, and i do want to be fair because i don't think that the republicans have really burned

up the roads on coming forward with solutions for getting stuff done. the country is so unease they we're on the verge of bankruptcy, senator moran. what's going to happen here? >> well, absolutely, the state of the union, in my view, thea, dress failed to feature the greatest problem in our country and it's related to job, and i think republicans and others have had difficulty in tying the deficit and its consequences to job creation and the ability for people to feel secure economically in this country, and the reality is as long as we have this major deficit looming over the economy, no person, no businessman or woman, no farmer or rancher in kansas feels comfortable in making an investment in the economy, worried that congress and the president will never get its act together and solve the deficit issue and put us on the right path and as a result, they're thinking we may be the next greece, for example, and so while senator werner and i are here to talk about growing the economy, the start-up act and

entrepreneurship and small businessmen and women having a chance to compete in this economy and create jobs, the reality is this big item of the deficit weighs on everything and while we got to grow the economy and put people to work, we've got to address the deficit, the cbo score said that today. >> senator werner, let me take -- senator moran and i, we have something that we're talking about positive and oui working together here, but let me acknowledge what senator moran said. i was disappointed the president did not talk more about deficit reduction in the state of the union as well, but i'm also disappointed that we've not heard that from the republican presidential debates. >> right. >> as well. i agree with that senator werner. >> we are drafting it. let's make sure we try to get that on the floor this year. >> your criticism of the campaign trail is correct. i've made it myself, and i just want to say, unfortunately, we don't have enough time.

it's election night, but look, bowles-simpson and simpson bowles will be the great compromise deal of our time. one way or another, some derivative form of this or another will get done and if it can't get done under this president, i know you're a democrat and i know you'll support obama, if it can't be done under obama is has to be done under romney the whole country knows and yet, and yet, and yet it never gets done. >> why not do it this spring. why would we saddle whether it's president obama or the republican president, the first thing out of the box next year for the president has to raise the debt ceiling their 3 trillion. why not do our job and put that plan in place this year. >> we need republican and democrat leadership on this issue and this is the perfect time to do it and it makes it much more difficult with the divided senate for there to be this political firing that goes back and forth with one side blaming the other for doing things such as entitlement reform that need to be

addressed. the politics is much better in a divided government than the moment in which you can claim that either the democrats or republicans have control of everything. >> i hope you'll both come back soon so we can talk at greater length. you make a lot of sense. i love your start-up bill, but i prefer broad-based tax reform and we'll do the start-up bill another time and jerry moran of kansas. you're both great. is the dollar rally over after the fed's z interest rate in 2014. what might that mean for stocks? we'll do some stock market work. our expert panel coming up and please, once again, free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity, but we can't go bankrupt. that would damage free market capitalism as well. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back.

a trio of disappointing economic reports sent stocks lower today. the s&p in january was up, however, 4.4%. the nasdaq up 8% and the question is will a falling dollar end the new year rally? joining me is keith mccullough, founder of hedge risk management and art hogan, managing director of lazard. keith, start with you. if there's a big romney victory tonight, do we get the positive

romney dollar or does that get drowned out by the falling bernanke zero interest rate 2014 dollar? who's going to win this dollar battle, keith? >> it's a massive tug-of-war. you're dead right on that, and i do think the dollar is up front running with a romney win and everybody sees that coming and maybe dollar strength ahead of that and dollar weakness immediately after that, what really happened is that the dollar just collapsed after bernanke effectively sent this ridiculous 2014 forecast. his forecasts are horrendous to start. now he's going out even further and he's basically saying to savers and consumers in america, savers in particular, you can sit on it and rotate because you will not get a rate of return on your savings account until as far as the eye can see and at the same time the bernanke taxes, immediately gets price into inflation expectations and you'll pay for it at the pump, so it's a big, big problem. >> another thing trolls me art. i was optimistic. i want to stay optimistic, but

chicago pmi was light manufacturing. consumer confidence was light and the kay shiller housing was light. yesterday the consumer spending report was light. is this economic burst kind of over, art hogan, and what might that mean for stocks? >> no, i don't think it's over. i think with the most recent reports and the three you just spoke to, take consumer confidence and we're disappointed with the handle two months ago and you were looking at a 40 handle. so clearly, it's the trend you have to look at and when you start looking at the economic date as as a point in time as part of a trend you start to get discouraged. you fell into the trap in august and the september timeframe and all we can talk about was double-dip recessions and that's not what's happening right now and we're having a pullback. remember, a lot of that consumer spending was pulled into november this year and that number was a difficult comp. >> the other thing that bothers me is the cbo report today, those guys could be right and they could be wrong. i don't know the answer, but

they're only saying 2% growth in 2012 this year, we're going back to 8.9% unemployment rate and one of the things they cited, keith mccullough is the tax hike threat in 2013. the bush tax cuts expire and get rolled back. capital gains goes up. obama care kicks in and capital gains goes up again and capital gains is a stock market tax and that troubles me, keith. >> that's an explicit tax. the implicit tax on top of that which is this ridiculous dollar devaluation idea is an entirely different reality. so if you look at gdp which was just reported for q-4. the deflator was .4% and to not get mathematically geeky about all of this, by the way, that's really understated and what that means is that we're overstating growth because inflation is actually on a real basis, stunting growth. as you get inflation with the dollar down, growth starts to slow, and that's what you saw the first quarter of last year,

and i think that's the real threat that a lot of the rose-colored glasses bulls are paying attention to. >> i'm sorry, we're a little short, gentlemen. we appreciate it, as always. sourceser telling cnbc tomorrow is the day facebook will run its ipo. so that and the other break in business headlines when "the kudlow report" continues right after this. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future.

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for this and other stories making news right now. good evening, sue. >> good evening, larry, thank you. yes, the big story tonight, sources tell cnbc that facebook is preparing to file a $5 billion ipo tomorrow morning. morgan stanley will be the lead underwriter with goldman sachs, barclays, b of a, and merrill lynch and j.p. morgan as the other secondary underwriters, but at $5 billion, the ipo is half what wall street wanted. cnbc will have extensive coverage for you tomorrow, and just moments ago, amazon held its conference call and while revenues were not so amazing, amazon says sales of its kindle fire nearly tripled and that brought earnings to 48 cents per share and investors are not buying it. amazon shares are not tumbling in after-hours trade because they warned of a possible first-quarter operating loss. the internal revenue service says refuns for returns filed before january 26 may be delayed by one week because of a computer glitch in new fraud prevention safeguards. the irses returns filed after

the 26th will not be affected. finally tonight for those new yorkers and bostonians who want to go do a quick last-minute trip to indianapolis, site, of course, of the super bowl. forget about it. round-trip coach airfare is $1800 and someone did the math and hiring a cab to drive from new york to indianapolis would actually be cheaper. you could always watch the super bowl on our sister network nbc. can't wait, larry. >> on my couch. why not? >> that's right! what could be better? >> many thanks to sue herera as always. >> with less than an hour before all of the polls close in florida, we're monitoring it closely. up next, we have florida's favorite son, republican senator marco rubio. we'll ask him whether whoever wins florida tonight wins the republican nomination. he's my special guest next up.

>> welcome back to "the kudlow report." rising republican star senator marco rubio of florida.

senator rubio, welcome back. >> thanks for having me. >> you were at the top of drudge a few hours ago. you said the winner of florida is in all likelihood the nom neef air party. by most accounts mitt romney will have a commanding victory tonight. is this it for romney? >> well, we'll see. we don't know who will win. the polls say certain things. florida is a difficult state to poll and people have been voting for a week now so it's not clear how that will turn out. florida, and one of the reasons why i always supported moving florida up is because it is so indicative of the country. iowa, new hampshire, south carolina have a difficult place in the process and it's a microcosm of the country and the argument i would make is that if you win in florida and especially if you win decisively, i think it positions you to do very well in the general election and i'm not saying the campaign will end tomorrow. i'm not calling for anyone to drop out. all i'm saying is ultimately at the end of the day, if you win a primary in florida especially if you win decisively, you can make

a compelling argument to get a strong general election candidate. >> let me move on to other things. the cbo budget office put out a gloomy report today, 8.9% unemployment this year and only 2% economic growth and another $1 trillion budget deficit and earlier this month you wrote a letter to president obama where you said, and i quote, more and more people believe america's becoming a deadbeat nation headed toward european-style debt crisis. what did you mean by that and what's the policy implication by you? >> what i mean by this is the democrats a s ans and republica built up a debt, there seems to be no political ilfrom the senate leadership in the white house to do anything about it and there's no lan to do it any time in the near future. what you hear from the cbo report and the experts is all we can see is deficits and debt as far as the eye can see. we now have debts that are equal to the size of the our economy. think about it, we have built a government so large and so

expensive here in washington that not even the richest economy in the history of mankind can afford it. that's how big it's gotten and there is no plan in place to do anything about it at about any time in the near future. it's a very serious problem. >> that's the thing that's most troubling. did president obama ever respond to your letter? >> no, he did not. >> all right. >> second thing, were you surprised as many of us were that in the state of the union he barely mentioned only in passing deficits and debt and the best he comes out with is this 30% minimum tax for millionaires. that's not a growth plan, is it? >> there are a lot of things he didn't talk about. the debt was one of them. his accomplishments is another one of them. he's trying to convince the american people that the way to protect people's jobs is to raise taxes. he's made the calculation that what he needs to do to get reelect the is to pit americans against each other. the only way some people can do better is for other people to do worse that we're somehow involved in the economic zero

sum gain. people don't buy that stuff. this is what other countries do. it's what you expect to hear in the third world and it's very unfortunate and one more reminder of why we need to desperately change direction in november. >> let me ask you, on the campaign trail, i don't hear newt gingrich or mitt romney. i don't hear them talking about deep spending cuts with any specificity. i don't hear them saying much about the deficit and the debt, and a lot of people are beginning to think that the tea party has been quiescent because they've been demoralized, that these two candidates and republicans in congress have not broken through, not on the debt ceiling and not on the super committee. you know this, sir. >> yeah. >> we don't seem to be moving in that direction. >> our number one goal needs to be growth. that's a positive message. we want the economy to grow. we want more taxpayers. we want people to make more money and we want growth. one of the impediments to growth are regulations, important tax code and a national debt that

scares people from investing in america's future. those issues are interrelated. it's not foreign aid and not some of these other programs and the drivers of the national debt are largely contained in medicare and medicaid. these are important programs for america, i'm a supporter of medicare, but we have to seay it and as it's currently structured the program goes bankrupt and those out there like the president who advocate and do nothing serious about medicare are advocating bankrupting medicare. i wish there was more talk about that. that's important, and the next president of the united states will have toledo that front. >> so will the republicans on this message of congress have the message you're talking about, a fiscally tough message with pro-growth tax reform. is it going to rally around the new paul ryan budget or senator ron johnson's ideas or your own ideas or tomko burn's ideas and it just doesn't seem like the gop is making much headway on the message. >> that's what it seems like and sometimes it's true and all fairness, senator portman and mccain other ands for senator paul have offered the

republicans jobs plan ask it has a bunch of these measures that are contained herein and a flattening of the tax code and making it more fair and dealing with debt and it just doesn't get coverage and it certainly isn't getting a vote from senate leadership and maybe we need to do a better job of talking more about it so people realize that there are alternatives out there to the direction that the president wants to take the country. >> you blasted newt gingrich at one point for saying romney was anti-immigrant. let me just ask you in terms of your own vision. >> right. how does the republican party reach out to hispanic voters and their families. what is the best way to do it? >> you talk about the economy and jobs and economic empowerment, but you can't even get to that if they feel you don't care about them or if you're talking about immigration in an insensitive way. here's what i think. the republican party needs to be and i believe is the pro legal immigration party. modernization of the illegal

immigration system so it helps the economy grow. simplifying it and investing in border security and in employment security that's cost affordable and then you have to move, that there is the issue of what you do with 11 million people that are here without documents and that's a difficult issue to deal with. on the one hand, we cannot be the only country in the world that doesn't enforce its immigration laws. so you can't have blaefrnth amnesty, but on the other hand you're not going to deport 11 million people and i confess i don't have an answer to that problem, and it will never be easy, but it gets easier once you have real border enforcement and real e-verify workforce enforcement and a commitment to modernize the illegal immigration system. here ate one thing i reject, the label of anti-immigrant label that the left throws around. there's a consensus in america that the immigration system that we have needs to be fixed, but just because you don't agree with the left's specific ideas on how to fix it does not make someone anti-immigrant and it is unfair to use that label. >> marco rubio of florida. thanks, sir. we appreciate your time very

much. >> thank you. all right. strong stuff from senator rubio. next up on "the kudlow report," just minutes to go until the polls close in the florida primary, will mitt romney finally reveal a bold tax reform plan of his own? well, art lapper, the father of supply side economics thinks newt gingrich has the right answer. they will debate next on "kudlow." the two trains and a bus to the 5:00 arider.holar. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic.

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ask your doctor if you can reduce your risk of stroke with pradaxa. art lafer wrote today in an op ed, newt gingrich's tax plan beats romney's. let's talk. we have dean baker, co-director of the policy research and the aforementioned art laffer chairman of laffer investments and a former reagan adviser. art, first of all, i didn't know mitt romney had a tax reform plan and what is newt gingrich over romney, briefly? >> they're two flat taxes he's got. one of personal income which is

15%. that's optional at least for a while and then he's gone to the irish model which is a 12.1% flat tax on business income which is, i think, a great plan. it will surely attract a lot of capital back to the u.s. and create a heck of a lot of jobs here in america. >> dean baker, mitt romney has told me when i interviewed him last week, but we haven't seen it yet. let me ask you this, newt gingrich's plan, how much would that grow the economy above the current pessimistic estimates? today the cbo said only 2% in 2012. how much torque would the gingrich plan put into the economy? >> it would be a great surge in tax accountants because he has a zero capital gains tax and we have a lot of people that would help the income look like capital gains and why wouldn't you take advantage of that. we've done tax cutting a long time. come on, guys you remember bush. he cut taxes. ireland is a model and that's a good one. what's the unemployment rate?

14% now? you know, this is not -- >> and the growth. >> it was on spending, dean. bush went craze owe spending. that's the real problem. he was no different than obama. i mean, really he wasn't and as milton always said government spending is taxation. so bush was as big a taxer as anyone as i have ever seen. i do like the marginal rate cuts, but the rest of it was awful. >> we have enough history here. >> it's a lot of growth. kennedy, reagan, hardy and coolidge, they all did a really, really well and all of the others that didn't afford it. >> it was under kennedy. he lowered it. >> he lowered it from 91 to 70. you want to make it back 70. we can make it back to 70. >> can i tell you what kennedy did? he cut the corporate rate from 52% to 48%. your rep reps blocked him. and he accelerated the depreciati

depreciation. he was a pro-growther. >> we have an agreement. we will go back to the kennedy-era tax rates, 70% and the economy will do great. >> if you will get your obama to bring spending down to that level i would almost be willing to do that, but these are wild, crazy spenders who are taxing all of our kids and our grandchildren's money. >> hang on one second, dean. >> sure. >> i want to ask art, as you know, i really love the flat tax, and it stops double and triple taxing. >> exactly. >> here's something that troubles me. newt does not remove the deductions that some of the early scoring from the tax policy center says the newt's plan would lose $1 trillion by 2015 in revenues, and i'm not aware that newt has any particular spending cuts to offset that. is that something that he needs to work on? is that something we all need? >> oh, sure. let me say something fair about dean as well. you are correct. the capital gains and unrealized

capital gains should not go tax-free. they should be taxed just regularly and then the basis changed right along with them. newt's plan is not perfect, but by goodness, it goes a long way and you're right, larry. newt doesn't spell out all of the spending cuts he would do although there are a lot in there that he does spell out, but frankly, you know, his tax plan is better than romney's in my opinion. >> but before we got to the lunar village, i thought newt used up his spending cuts and that troubles me. we got away with it during the reagan years. >> yeah. we'll take revenue hits and we'll make it up in growth over the long term. >> the deficit is such a problem now and much worse than it was in those days. >> it's not the deficit, larry. please, pull back just a little bit and it really is spending. >> we have not had a big growth in spending apart from the stimulus which was because of the collapse of the economy. let's not forget, your guys on wall street took the economy down the tubes, but we got the worst downtrend since the great

depression and we had to spend something to get out of it. >> it was in the housing bubble for five years. >> you don't think so, but people tried it out. it was a complete austerity and back in the recession. >> can i try an example just for a second? if you have two people, two farms and that's it, and the whole economy, and if farmer b gets unemployment benefits who do you think pays for them? >> we have a lot of debt and that's how it's -- that's how it's keeping people, and -- what caused the downturn is the collapse of the housing bubble. >> it was really simple, buddy. we lost four percentage points with 600 billion in consumption. no. it wasn't government policy that told goldman sachs to make those mortgage-backed securities. >> again, mitt romney will come out with a new tax reform plan they think will be bolder. i don't know when it's going to

come out. i'm just reporting, that's what he told me in an interview. >> thank you very, very much. dean baker as always. thanks very much, gentlemen. >> all right. please stay with us on "the kudlow report." we are minute away from the polls closing in florida. the question now, will mitt romney walk away with a victory who will ensure he is the republican nominee and our political panel will weigh in along with governor scott in just a moment.

florida polls close at the top of of the hour and if the polling was accurate, mitt romney is expected to pull off a big win, but will this mark the beginning of the end for the gop nomination battle or can we expect a long, protracted fight all of the way through the convention? joining us we'll bring in democratic strategist bob strum, and we bring in former rnc chairman michael steel, i don't think that's true. we have former senior adviser kevin madden and strategist ed rogers. scratch that, we don't have michael steele, but we're glad to see everybody else. >> good to be here. >> i don't know any numbers. i haven't heard a thing. all i want to know is after this bruising battle in which the polling data, the polling data suggest a big victory for mitt. what does mitt take away?

will he stay aggressive or will he stay on the offense and will he be bolder on his policy messages? >> i think he'll remain very determined. i think that florida, you have to remember that this is a long primary process and florida is just one contest. there's no time for resting on your laurels. that's something that we learned in south carolina that things can change very quickly in the space of ten days. so as you look at february where you have caucuses that really require organization. they require resources and they require a very smart message about the economy and how governor romney will beat president obama, and if you look at nevada, colorado, arizona and michigan towards the end of the month, the campaign's going to remain very determined and very focused on carrying that message across those primariys. >> those are big romney states. i went through it. february 4th, nevada and maine. colorado, minnesota and missouri. and the end of the month you have arizona and michigan.

those are all romney states. let me bring in my pal bob schrum. from a distance, i know that's not your cup of tea, but i want you to comment on your other cup of tea. don't you think if romney does as well as the polls say, and not the florida polls, but the polling data polls. this is basically over and it's all over, with the shouting. >> kevin is saying all of the right things. we're not going take this for granted. he'll be determined and i said in february 2008 and it made some people in my own party mad that it was clear that barack obama was not going to be the democratic nominee for president and it is clear to me that mitt romney is. newt gingrich will limp through february assuming he has enough money and he might even win in those southern states and in texas on super tuesday, but then he's going have to go to one big state like pennsylvania, for example, or later, california, and romney's people will take all of those millions of dollars and dump them on his head again and that's why 92% of the advertising in the florida primary was negative because i

think they decided they had to disqualify the guy and apparently they may have. >> let me go to ed rogers. i'm going apologize in advance for the lock of time. >> that's okay. >> bill mcgern in "the wall street journal," mitch should go after the conservatives and mitch should borrow a more aggressive tax reform plan and look at the sound dollar and strong monetary policy and essentially borrow some of the stuff that newt has been saying and what do you think about that? i'm going throw in my steadfast idea of the 5% growth target. >> absolutely a growth target is something that our nominee needs to do, and mitt romney if he has a double-digit victory tonight, he's probably our nominee and he needs to retool and he needs to conclude a big economic offering. right now he doesn't have it, and i agree with bob schrum and i agree with kevin madden and what are the odds of that, but after tonight, if he has a double-digit victory tonight then what that's going to say to the gop establishment, if you

will. the people that are going to share the ballot with the republican nominee, they're going to begin to coalesce around mitt romney. they're afraid of newt gingrich and people don't want to be on the ballot with him, and you'll see a huge movement of elected officials and candidate for mitt romney. >> florida's republican governor rick scott. thank you, sir. it'sa i pleasure to see you. this is something that marco rubio said earlier, so goes florida, so goes the nomination so goes the election. it's become the quint essential purple state, governor scott. is that fair? so goes florida? so goes the country. this is the microcosm of the country. 19 million people, the biggest swing state. if you win florida, you know, i think you'll beat the nominee. it's going to be and it's going come down to jobs. whoever wins tonight it looks like right now it will be romney and it's because floridians believe they'll do what we've

done in florida, focus on jobs, reduce like we did to 2.1%, the second fastest growing state in dropping unemployment and that's what's going to matter. it's going to be the economy and whoever wins tonight, the public here has believed that they'll turn the economy around and become a good partner for us and what we're doing in florida. >> governor scott, just quickly, sir, and i apologize for the brevity of time, but did mitt romney get the real economic, prescriptive message out? i know his argument. i'm from the private sector, and i can turn around the government and i think it's a good argument, but did he convince people that prescriptively in terms of policies he can turn the economy around. >> i think both, all of the candidates should be talking about jobs and more and less of this, you know, these negative ads, but whoever wins tonight, floridian voters care about one thing, its jobs. they like what we've done, 141,000 new jobs last year, but we need a federal partner and

whoever wins tonight did a better job to get their message out. >> i'll leave it there. thank you, governor rick scott. >> up next, we will make some more music with the all-star political panel and we'll continue our live coverage of the florida primary right after this. we are six minutes before the polls close. i'm larry kudlow. please stay with us. [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field.

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ewww. ( announcer ) fly without putting your life on pause. be yourself nonstop. american airlines. >> back to our distinguished panel. ed rogers, bob strum, this one's made for you. i have a thought experiment. consider that you are newt gingrich. it's a wonderful thought, and consider that you are determined to continue to run no matter how big a victory mitt romney may have tonight. wouldn't you be better off, bob schrum, going back to positives, touting your flat tax and touting your sound dollar and touting your war against food stamps where you want people to work and not pay them to not work. i mean, didn't the war against capitalism and the war against success really hurt newt gingrich? shouldn't he go positive now,

bob? >> he tried to complain about all of the negative ads and he lost very badly. i think in frustration he's throwing the kitchen sink at romney, and he and rick perry and these folks talking about vulture capitalism, whether you agree with them or not have had one big event which is romney's favorable unfavorables have gotten worse among independents and people generally. he's now 31-41 and i think you're right. i might not agree with the message, but he has to go out there with some big, economic message other than i'm a ceo, elect me because that's not an entirely unmixed blessing. >> let me go back to you. some of these polls, not tonight's polls, but the polling polls show that the weakest area is very conservative people, quote, unquote, very conservative people and what's mitt's best path to winning that group over? >> the issues that animate conservatives and these tea party voters are very focused on the amount of spending that they see in washington and sits. as governor romney continues to

talk about what he would do to have government spending and how he would put more certainty in the private sector and more faith in the american people instead of the government and draw that contrast, particularly in a general election then those voters would start to move toward him and he can begin to unify the party on those issues. >> more emphasis on spending. ed rogers, i can't ask you that question, and i apologize in advance. you've all been terrific and bob schrum, that's it for this evening's show. we'll be back tomorrow. all of the polls in florida are closing right now. please stand by for our first look at the numbers as they come in. this is the fight over florida. let me send it now to my great colleague, eamon javers. he's in tampa with the cnbc special report. >> thank you, larry. good evening, everybody. we have seen a hard fought and bitter campaign here in the republican presidential primary in the state of florida. we are now down to the last seconds here before polls close across the state of fla.