good morning, everybody. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. stocks starting the year on a bullish foot. last month watt the best month for the markets in 15 years. the dow was up by 3.4%, so joe is well on his way to getting a better than 30% return for this year. >> yeah. >> at this point, you were underestimating things, my friend. >> yes. the. >> the s&p 500 was up by over 4%. and u.s. equity futures at this hour on this very first trading day of the new month, february, up by 91 points, s&p is up over 9 points and the big portion of the up side has to do with china. the cup's manufacturing sector better than expected in january. meantime, a similar hsbc survey showing that the sector

contracted at least -- contracted by the least amount in three months. the news is supporting some hopes that the world's second biggest economy will avoid a hard landing opinion guys, that's why we're seeing green arrows once again. >> and one of the big stories this morning, eu anti-trust regularitiers wronging the merger of nyse euroneck and deutsche boerse. the nyse says in light of the decision, it is in discussions to terminate the merger. meantime, it's planning to focus on a stand alone strategy, announcing a $500 million repurchase program. nyse's ceo, duncan niederauer is going to joins. i was with duncan in davos. i think there was an expectation that this transaction would not go anywhere. i'm not sure that there's that time options for them.

at the time they pursued this transaction, there was a lot of consolidations. the london stock exchange wag tries to do a deal. none of those deals came together and i'm not sure we're going to necessarily see this all rev up again. we do have a merger sxert on our set who might be able to talk more about this in a moment. we haven't been able to introduce her yet because she has another story. joe is -- i don't know what joe is doing there. >> we had great viewers. we talked about the python and how deer were disappearing. >> in the everglades. >> i have a picture of a python with a deer and it has a picture of his head put on his body where the deer is passing and it's this big, the body, and the head is that big and -- >> we were having a serious conversation about the deutsche boerse. >> you're having a serious conversation. >> and there you are with the python.

>> not only that, but i saw a deer this morning that -- >> i did, too. i almost hit one. >> but what if it ate one of those? >> the and lerers? >> yeah, that won't work. the other big story this morning, facebook is expected to file for the an ipo as early as today. the company expects to raise as much as 10 billion. at that amount, the company would be valued at 75 to 100. which is what we've been saying all week. kayla toucausche joins us with full report. i saw this report where he has a salesman saying, look, we're taking our final orders for facebook right now. and he agreed to come on camera for that. >> you know what that was? >> what? >> it's a private investor. >> but there's a secondary market and there's a whole slew

of people out there who have been trying to buy up shares like this before the ipo. even with this filing -- >> the guy -- >> well, we're going to see the leads will be separated from the chapel out of these funds for separate vehicles that were set up to raise facebook shares. i think they have put up this front to investors and said we can promise you shares of facebook at this price. once they get public, we'll be able to see which of those were telling the truth. >> but we can go back and check what the guy says versus what actually happened, right? >> right. and her point yesterday was there is a very fine line about what you can do to market these securities. at what point does, you happen, does it become too much of a promotion? and so you could argue with these e-mails that the guy, dprank migola was sending out to

his potential investors, he was making valuation estimation. so that was one issue. but we have news on what we're expecting to happen today. we're expecting facebook to file a perspective for $5 billion, which is smaller than some had expected. but remember, a lot of times what waez on the front of these documents is just a place holder. if you're facebook, you can do a $5 billion mark and have it just be a place holder there. so i guess the good news is you'd rather underpromise and deliver rather than having it too large and have to pull back. >> right. what i'm most interested in seeing is what percentage of the company they're willing to put out there. we saw groupon do 5%, zinga to 2%. and even though facebook has about 2.5 billion shares, what percentage of that are they willing to public out to the public market? that will be interesting. as far as the underwriter,

morgan stanley, we learned how they won the top spot. jpmorgan, goldman sachs will be go leading the deal with them. there is possibly this idea that more could be add. you think about gm, $20 billion deal. they had ten underwriters. zinga had six. it was a $1 billion deal. groupon had 14 million. if they find along the way they could -- >> don't you think that it's going to expand -- i would assume we will have 15 underwriters when it's all done. >> i think you could make that assumption. but at the same time, they might be wanting to play a little closer to that. >> is there anybody who really got stung by being left out, who thought they were going to get a part of this underwriting? >> you can allegation argued goldman sax. i think the other one was gold mans. if this is the limited group that stays that way, leaving

them off the prospective is a big deal. >> hold on. did you see goldman sachs is now part of the -- >> no, no, they are. >> got it. >> i remember the other part of herb's report was that we expected it at 50 and by november you'll be able to sell it at 100. >> i've seen the e-mail. >> do they come in -- >> and it's not always about twitter. >> does anyone know that it's coming at 50? does anyone know then you'll be able to sell it at -- it looked so bucket choppy, it almost reminded me of a letter from nigeria. oh, don't tell me that wasn't real. >> sorry. >> yeah. kay kayla, thank you. >> thank you. let's take a look at the markets this morning. the futures are indicated higher

today. the dow futures are up by about 90 points right now. s&p is up by 9 1/2. and this is larmly because of what we've seen out of china overnight. take a look at oil prices right now. check out and you'll see right now oil prices up by about 71 cents. that's still below $100 even after all the concerns out of the middle east. 99.19 is the latest trade. the ten-year has been well below 2% on the yield. still down there at 1.825%. today we get some numbers. today is adp. we'll get the first glimpse of what we might get expecting on friday from that big jobs report. if you take a look, the dollar is down across the boards. the euro trading right now at 1.3124. >> well, romney pounced yesterday. i guess this is a big story, what we're calling here on the

teleprompter as a land slide. i've seen a lot of different conjectures. the one thing i saw on the mainstream media was that he won, but independents didn't like that negativity and that could come back to haunt him. i'm starting to realize, sometimes negativity can work in a campaign. have you ever seen a positive campaign win? it's hard, isn't it? >> that's why they do it, joe. according to studies, about 90% of the ads we saw in the last week of the campaign is that the ads were negative. politicians try to distance themselves from it and say, with i don't like doing it, but at the end of the day they do it because that helps them win. this year we've seeing the super pacs. now they can have even one more

hands off distance between themselves and what's going on on the air waves, joe. >> yeah. and most of the time, you expect the rival to say, i'm staying in. and no one ever says, gee, i'm thinking about getting out. they will always say that. they say it until they don't say it. but, you know, with gingrich, you may stay in it just to be able to continue really -- even if he knows, and i wonder about ron paul, how many times you go through it about you get 7% every time. but the motivations of different candidates are hard to pin down sometimes. >> look what sarah palin said the other day. and with ron paul, he's a message candidate. he never expected to win this thing in the first place. he's in there to get his

libertarian message across to as many voters as he can. and rick santorum, he's the alternative gingrich. no reason for him necessarily to drop out immediately, either. >> if santorum did drop out and his votes went to newt, that would have been a much, much closer race in florida. >> that's right. they're sort of splitting the anti-romney vote right now with a 14-point vote margin -- 14-point margin, excuse me, for romney last night. but yeah, if you had santorum and gingrich heating up, that could be a real threat for the campaign, especially going into the deep south states where gingrich is expected to be stronger here than he was in florida. there's a lot of ego and a lot of personality involved in this as well as pure mathematically calculation. there doesn't seem to be any love loss anywhere in this

campaign. this was really personal between romney and gingrich and you also sense that santorum doesn't like gingrich all that much. and i'm the guy who doesn't have any baggage. i'm the guy we ought to have as the anti-romney here in the conservative camp. and you almost get the sense that santorum can't get an idea that people are flocking to gingrich the way they have so far. >> i don't know whether primary voters really care about wasting a vote, either. sometimes they just -- they figure they can do it just to make a message. at this point, i mean, it's eventually gets an air of in d inevitab inevitable. i wonder what the point is, it's really to make a statement in these subsequent states. >> that's right. when you look at the type of people who show up for primaries, the voting percentage is low overall. it's pretty low in primaries. what you get are really

committed people, people who follow the news, follow the development, they're into these campaigns, into these candidates. they're not into the idea of wasting a vote. they want to go out and rote for ron paul. they want to make a point. >> in florida, something like 70% of the voters are up to 50. >> yeah, right. that's why some of the campaign stops what the happened at retirement homes. >> they know what they're doing. >> very sensitive to the age discrimination thing. you wait until you're out of the demo. i could get a nielsen count. >> i have a groundhog day moment. >> how about harwood, were we not -- huh? mid march, looking good. >> the only thing is, if santorum did drop out of it and gingrich was able to take his

voters or vice versa -- >> i never know about gingrich. he could come back like 13 times or something. i mean, because i remember payne wrote an article about him after he lost his first campaign staff and that was like a year ago. why? it was, stop messing around. and he's come back three times since then. >> wait me up in the summer and we can talk. >> it's interesting, i looked at it and romney is close to 90 now. to be president, moved up a little and president obama is coming down ever so slightly from 55 to 53.9. >> quite a race. >> yeah. both of them have $800 million. if you think this was negative. but he was 5 to 1 against ring rich. wait until eye 5 to 5 and

they're just sitting there watching tv. just one after another, back and forth and back and forth. socialists. >> it's going to be a long year. >> socialist versus 1%er. >> fantastic for the tv business. >> yes, you're right, for advertising. >> right. >> right now, it's time for the global markets report. we want to get to ross westgate standing by in london. ross, a lot of the trading activity today has been driven by china. what else are you seeing moving things in europe right now? >> yeah. well, we had china pmi data today which suggests we have a soft landing. hard landing may be off the agenda. is i'll come on to that. ahead of the u.s. open, becky, we are at about the best levels of the day. advancers outpacing decliners by about 9 to 1. the ftse 100 was up around 2%. xetra dax up over 9% for the

month of january. up another 2%. we're up to the session high at the time moment. cac 40 up 1.6%. the ftse mig up 2.4%. we've had data out today showing manufacturing pmi for the month of january, final print, still showing contraction will be at better than flat. the point is, everybody else was contracting. apart from germany, their pmi numbers were up. you also have gdp data. credit still contracting in the eurozone apart from once again germany. we also had an auction out in germany this morning. the bond yield, the second lowest ever in the euro area for german bund. 1.4%, pretty respectful. ten-year bpts, firmly below 6%. 5.76% showing you that

undoubtedly confidence towards the next flight has returned. we had a surprisingly good number out of pmi today, manufacturing 52.1, stronger than anybody expected. the uk will avoid an official recession. back to you. >> all right. >> great. we'll talk to you a little bit later. for now, we'll take a quick break. squawk europe saying no go to that nyse and deutsche boerse merger. >> what? >> theater. we'll talk to duncan in this ederauer after the break. plus, watch shares of amazon today. investors punishing that stock after the online retailer's quarterly results disappointed. consumers spent more online this past holiday soap. but amazon's numbers fell below expectations. "squawk box" coming back right after this.

we were just driving along,er comin' back from the lake,ng. and all of a sudden, ka-plam. it blindsided us. what is it? our college savings account. how do you think it happened? not sure. i think something we bought a while ago turned out to be something else, annnnnd, i remember a lot of other stuff in there had the word "aggressive" in it. is everyone okay? well, now, yeah. who knows later. ♪

welcome back, everybody. the month of january was good for the stock markets. were starting with more green arrows. right now, the dow futures up by 89 points. the s&p are up by 9.5. in our headlines this morning, gambling revenue and macau jumping by nearly 35% in january. this is the world's largest gambling destination. it was helped by a record number of chinese visitors during the lunar holiday. joe, back over to you. coming up, strike averted. refineries reaching a last-minute deal. that could have boosted gasoline prices. and later, mr. trump sounds off on the gop presidential race. first, though, as we head to break, a look at yesterday's winners and losers.

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welcome back, everybody. amazon warping that it could lose money in the current quarter. anthony dicolinti follows amazon for barclay's capital. anthony -- >> good morning, becky. >> some disappointing numbers yesterday and in overseas markets this morning. what is the biggest part of the problem? is it the warning that we could see an operating loss for this quarter? >> i think if you think about

amazon stocks, revenue is flowing and second of all, we're in the midst of margin compressi compression. third, it's a stretched and extensive valuation. so it's very hard to justify at these levels. you know, i think one of the problems here is that amazon has always talked about its principal as being about the customer, about serving the customer and people love amazon because of the low prices and the selection and the belief is that if the customer comes, then shareholders will follow and stock will follow. sometimes when the customer whips, it comes at the expense of the profit margin of the company. that's really what we're seeing. that's really the debate that's going on is loyalty from the customer, whether it be from amazon prime and free shipping and things like scotch tape for free. is that something that generates customer loyalty? at what point do we see profits from that sort of business model

come through for shareholders? >> and the company has always talked about investing in the future and they continue to do that. i guess that's not something you'd like to see change, but you are making an argument for maybe some of these free shippings offers to be cut back if it's not for high ticket items? >> yeah, well, i do think the company is doing the right thing in terms of investing. but it could be that these investments are in some way maintenance investments or cap ex investments. as they expand capacity, one of the issues is it's a retail model. so the dollar that they generate isn't any better of a profit margin than the last dollar that they generated. the investments are to expand capacity unlike other internet companies that we cover such as google, advertising in media models, where incremental revenue margins. amazon doesn't really have that. i think on top on of that, there's a media issue. declines in viddó games, sales, physical, sales of video games i

think also dvds and cds may have played a part there. that's an issue. really north america media is swelling. digital is start to go make up for tholg those physical declines. we haven't really seen downloads to rent, downloads to buy, movies or tv shows. >> anthony, the market agrees the stock was down over 7% in the after hours yesterday. but what price do us, okay, it's all been factors in? >> you see, it's tough. it's 100 times this year's earnings and actually, even if you look at 2013, which is really how we get to our new price target of $190, we've got to use a free cash flow multiple of 25 x 2013. and so a lot of folks look at that and they say, in order to justify that, i think the wall street journal used the word altitudeness of valuation. i think it's going to take either impressive revenue growth

continuing or an expansion of margins to grow into that multiple. and that's really the debate right now for amazon. >> anthony, thank you very much. good talking to you. >> thanks, becky. >> as we've been sduk discussing all morning, with europe blocking the nyse deutsche boerse deal. thank you guys for joining us this morning. >> hi. >> so the deal is off. there was appear expectation, i think, over the past couple of weeks that it was looking like it was going in this direction. but my larger question is, you pursued this transaction because we talked about how it would help you grow the business. now that you don't have this transaction at hand, what do you do? >> i think that's a great place to start, so i'll start and john michael can add to it.

obviously, we like the stand alone strategy because the results proved that that was a good strategy. i think we thought we had a game changer. it was strategically sensible. we thought it was instructed properly. unfortunately with today's outcome, you know, we're disappointed, but not surprised as you pointed out. it's on wards and upwards from here the. >> from the beginning, we always said this deal would accelerate the execution of our strategy. of course, we are disappointed, but the company is in good shape. sxlept products, excellent management teams. so the companies can focus now on full execution. >> in terms of trying to push it through to regular listregulari that this deal is off the table, are any of those concessions that you had offered up still back on the table as a stand alone?

>> i think we've always had the deal that the stuff we proposed was consistent with our views as a company and where we thought the market should go. so you guys are right. i mean, what's ironic about this is this was a chance in the wake of a crisis to focus this all on how bad capacity is to deliver the markets a large but very transparent and highly regulated marketplace for not only the exchange traded products, but for the otc products which all the regulators around the world are trying to merge in the exchange traded space. i think it's a missed opportunity for europe. i think it's a missed opportunity for the market and i think it's a missed opportunity for a lot of investors. so absolutely, we plan on continuing to push in that direction. >> and let's talk about potential other acquisitions, other things that you could be doing given the regulatory environment at the time that you pursued this transaction, there was a real sense that it was going to be a number of these deals. this was supposedly a trend in the exchange space, which doesn't seem to have

materialized. what do you see going forward? >> it's a great question and it's one i think all the ceos in the industry are going to be skd asking themselves. if you look back on the last 15 to 18 months, the industry is 0 for 3 in terms of cross boardser deals. they all failed to consummate for different reasons. it is an industry that runs itself to scale and yet no one seems to be able to consummate those mergers. aim not going to speculate on specific opportunities, but i think the next wave of m&a is going to be in the under category. i don't think you're going to see the mega merger be the next announcement if you ask me personally. >> gentlemen, could you talk about what's been happening just in terms of volume with some of the trades we've seen. duncan, i know in particular on the new york stock exchange, we have seen lower volume this year and i'm just wondering if you have anything that you can point to for what you think is causing that and john michael, maybe you

could draegs that, too. >> yeah, sure. i'll start in the u.s. and john michael can add from the european perspective. certainly in the u.s. what we're seeing, whether you contribute it to the continuing uncertainty, whatever it might be, you've got a low volume activity, low environment, and the people i talked to in davos, there's no conviction right now in terms of where do we go from here until we get a little more clari clarity. so i'm afraid for at least the beginning of this year, we're going to be mired in this low volume, low volatility environment. there's always an unexpected catalyst that could change that, but right now, you will see lower volumes in the u.s. and wherever there's lower volumes and lower volatility, the internal rates goes down, as well. >> very much the same thing because the european market frequently follows the u.s. markets and there is simply too much uncertainty. real investments are standing on the sidelines and waiting for

more volatility, particularly on the european markets. >> we had less certainty last year and huge plays and volatile swing. >> right. but there was so much uncertainty then, that led to a tremendous amount of volatility which obviously highly correlates. right now what you've got is you've got muted volatility. everyone is on the sidelines saying, okay, until the crisis over here in europe is solved, it's hard to move forward. i don't talk to anybody who wants to get short the market. i don't talk to anybody who really wants to get long the market. >> john, you know when the market is cranking and all of a sudden the volume picks up, that's not always a great sign. so a nice, slow, steady move up where if no one is that sure, that's classic for the early stages assumption it might last, right? >> i think that's right. i think that you'd rather have a slow grind up more than anything else. not great for volumes in our transaction business, but that happeningfully we're pretty diversified away from a lot of

the reliance on those businesses. >> john, if you had not pursued this deal last year, what would you have done? is there something you would have done differently? some analysts described the transaction as a distraction. >> yeah, i would tell you in all honesty, i don't think we got that distracted. my philosophy is going into this, you know, i decided to take up 100% of a handful of people's time instead of a small percentage of hundreds of people's time. my thought was we kept the motor of people focused on the strategy. to be perfectly honest, i think the post trade strategy would be further developed than it is today. that's a number one imperative for us. we'll talk more about that in next week's earnings call. i think we probably would have done more of the repurchase that we just announced that we're going to reinitiate. and i think we probably would have done, you know, an

acquisition in the technology space, but given everything else we had going on, we sort of put that off to the side. >> when you came to technology -- when you came to technology, is it a technology company or a second market like markets that involved in the technology space? >> yeah. what i mean is more the former, andrew. i've got a lot of the companies that we bought the last three or four years were in adjacent businesses, along the value chain of financial services and we're always looking for opportunities there. >> duncan, we have to leave it there, but before you go, the other big news of the morning, facebook's ipo we're supposed to see the filing after the market. is that going to be an nyse deal? >> we think it's going to be hotly contested. we certainly are going to put our best foot forward there and we look forward to having the opportunity to win their business. >> gentlemen, thanks so much. appreciate you joining us. >> thanks a lot, guys. have a good day. if you have questions or comments about anything you see here on squawk, e-mail us,

squawk@cnbc.com. coming, adt is the economic stat of the day. we're going to ask what traders want to hear in the release, next. so, how was school today ?

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welcome back. futures at this wore, dow would open 87 points higher, nasdaq

would open up close to 14 points higher. making headlines this morning, u.s. refinery workers reaching a last-minute contract deal. the last nationwide strike by refinery workers was in 1980 and lasted three months. joining us now in the cme, michael gurka. we haven't spoken in a while, michael. january was great. what do you expect for february and for the year inspect. >> you know what, joe? i'm not surprised whatsoever by the way the markets played. again, i was slightly bearish to end the quarter last year. so i've been corrected. but without question, i mentioned those grain markets and seeing how they had gone big. but let's get back to europe in regards to how the ecb is looking at the world and, of course, the euro. one of the things that's really come into play for me is the strength in how the dax is trading. and i say that only because with the anticipation of lower rates

from 1% from the ecb, you're starting to see how that's going to help export driven economies such as the netherlands, germany, and that is why i think the dax has room to improve here. that is correlating in the s&p and potentially maybe by the end of this quarter as we get to the second, you could see a test of the one-year highs up at 1370 in the s&p because we're now finding really good support here at 1300, which is the 20-day moving average. >> that would be a pretty nice move. by when? >> it's going to take a little time by way you referenced the market earlier which is slow and steady. that is a very good remedy compared to where we've been in the past. and i believe, at least, if you're seeing slight such as adp, clearly the jobs report will rachet up these new levels. 1325 probably by month eeps end is out of there.

and trading there for february, short month. but it's a target out there. but you know what? run away trade in gold right now, i think the pressure metals are out there in the periphery. it has been more for traders to just jump on to. when the trade ends up being slow and steady grind for smooth or how is it going to ruffle? how some of our broader market indexes start to perform, that's a nice baseline for improvement here. again, it's good to see that the fundamentals are starting to play in line. maybe we see some shake-ups. but in regard to down side, keep an eye on how the dollar trades versus the euro. since droggi has got on board here, you've seen a weaker euro, which is better for their economy. the dollar has suffered. and i know the way the british

pound has traded above 155 has been a caveat for all of these crosses. >> all right, michael, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> see you later. when we come back, zauk, the way it was meant to be seen, unplugged. we're going to head over to the chairs. who knows what we might be talking about. we'll be looking at the stories grabbing our attention on today's paper, including controversy about the health care premiums. the employee of the month is...

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welcome back, everybody. we're in the chairs this morning. that means we get to find the stories that have caught our attention and talk about them. guys, i don't know if you've seen the front of "usa today" this morning. there's a story about how private health care insurance is on the rise. it's up by 17% since 2010. premiums are down 16% and how human services is saying this counters all the criticisms that were raised about what would happen with the affordable health care act. this is exactly the opposite of what would be happening. i think it's a red herring, though. i think it's too early to tell on these things. >> nothing happened yet. >> there's 200 billion in cuts for the program that don't go into effect until 2016. but i think it's amazing you can see enrollment up 17% and premiums down 16% and that comes

because so many companies are trying hard to compete with the medicare advantage program. people have gone through and said these are the companies that are working very hard and lure customers coming in. shut shows you what happened -- >> there's a $2 trillion bill to pay for this, number one, that goes on top of the fourth biggest deficit -- >> we get there because the supreme court is going to talk about this in the the next few months. >> and my point, though, is that this is catching attention. it's a great news to see enrollment up and premiums down. you'll see people spinning in a lot of different directions. i think there's a lot that still needs to happen before you can come out and see this is -- although you can point to competition that actually all these private companies -- >> competition among the private companies. >> that are actually duking it out. >> could be big. another story this morning, actually not really a story so much as an ad. the kaufman foundation is spending $3 million to inspire

young people to pursue entrepreneurism. if you've never seen ads like if you've never seen ads like this, we have it, take a look. a person with a passion to turn an idea into a business. create jobs, grow the economic kme and change the way we live, work and play. the next great entrepreneur is out there. will it be you? an entrepreneur with an idea can change the world. get started now, at willitbeyou.com. >> at a time when people are talking about capitalism? >> i think it's fantastic. >> honestly? >> absolutely. the fact that, when is the last time you saw an ad like this during the super bowl. >> are they implying that these entrepreneurs should be like seeking profits? >> that -- >> that's the old model, andrew. that is the old model. that's not, do not chase the

brass ring. >> i think that's a pretty amazing ad. >> i think it's amazing -- we'll see it written up, i want to see the op-ed piece in your paper. >> i think it's a great ad. >> why do you think they wouldn't like it? >> entrepreneurs, they're one-percenters, they're trying to take money from people who don't have it and put it in their account. >> the fact that somebody is going to be spend $3 million to put that on the super bowl. >> and families sit around and watch the super bowl and that is a great thing that you can sit there with your kids. what are you guys thinking about, what do you want to be when you grow up. >> with my daughter? that's what i try, that's the whole point of why i wrote that book. to tell her, if you have an idea, and you want to eventually become rich and have hundreds of people working for you, you don't need to hide. you don't need to run and hide if you don't go into community service or if you don't do this or do that. you can hold your head high if you create thousands of jobs. >> although there's nothing

wrong with community service. >> obviously, obviously. >> you can, you don't need to go into community service there are a lot of ways you can -- >> we've been told recently, don't chase the brass ring. don't go after, the corner office, the big car. go into the giving thing. >> and these ads specifically tell you, go chase the brass ring, and it's okay. >> i don't think we have my picture, but i want you to think, here's what i want you to think about. >> you're talking about the python. >> i want you to think about the size of a python's head. and i want you to think about a deer and just think about how that works. because he don't know. but i do have a shot that a viewer sent in from -- we do have it, from the other day. there is the part of the python that actually has the deer, and there's the deer's head. how the hell did that happen. you can see from the igloo cooler, how wide the python's head. this is in reference to what's widely reported this week, that

there are thousands of pythons in the everglades and a lot of, i don't consider deer -- >> they're not natural to the area. >> they're not natural and they were released. the reason that there are so many is because they're not natural, they don't have any natural predators down in the everglades. so a bunch of -- i can understand the medium-sized mammals disappearing. the possums and raccoons and everything. but deer is beyond belief. i don't if they just pick female deer. you don't want to pick -- do you? as a python? >> a ten-point buck? >> that could get that might be tough to -- >> we do appreciate our viewers for sending in that picture. >> this is the ultimate squawk-o-pedia. >> why don't we talk about a few business items that have been coming up. chrysler reporting that 2011 net

income of $183 million. that compares to a loss the year before. market share rising throughout the fourth quarter. and of course we've been watching the markets this morning, too. >> to you. >> we're in the chairs, now we're doing -- let's check on the markets this morning. they don't warn me about these things. we're go to do some reads over here. we're up 90. as you can see on the futures. the dow jones industrial average, now you're going to read a tease over here, andrew. >> it's very complicated. >> should we talk about why the futures are up 90? >> no, we'll talk about why we're over here talking about this. >> the first trading day of the new month. >> is this your fault? >> for the month of january, the markets were up 3.4% for the dow, up 4.4% for the s&p 500. great start to the year which i thought you would be excited about. it's going along with your premise that we're going to see the market uptick. >> exciting that we're talking about hard news sitting in these chairs is the problem this morning. >> it defeats the whole purpose. what are the chairs fof.

i'm not going over there, then, we'll do the whole show from over here. >> i'm going back to my desk. >> we'll have the morning's top stories. plus, could facebook really be worth $100 billion? only if it meets some impressive goals says one well-known finance professor. he'll be our guest. and later, your money, your vote, former presidential candidate, fred thompson, mr. "law and order" he'll join us to talk about the 2012 campaign and who he wants to see in the white house. "squawk box" coming back after the break. ther

the fight for florida is in

the books. now republicans head to nevada. >> just to show us there's no hard feelings, we're all going to go out to dinner together. >> we break down what's next as the race for the white house heat up. ken duberstein, former reagan chief of staff is our special guest. plus billionaire donald trump rings the "squawk" news line. >> there's an old dog who doesn't like new tricks. >> from politics to the silver screen, fred thompson has done it all. the former presidential candidate is our special guest and tells us who he is backing to lead our country and fix our economy. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> mclean, is this what you expected? >> no. this is just the beginning. good morning, everybody, welcome back to "squawk box" on

cnbc, i'm becky quick, along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. eu regulators blocking the expected merger between nyse and börse. >> thought we had a once in a industry opportunity to do a game-changer. it was strategically sensible. we thought it was structured properly and unfortunately with today's outcome, we're disappointed, but not surprised, as you point out. it's onwards and upwards from here. >> mitt romney winning florida's primary in a landslide, he now has three times as many delegates as newt gingrich. despite the setback, gingrich is vowing to press on. and also watch shares of amazon.com at the open. the company's revenue falling $1 billion short of expectations, net income fell sharply and the guidance for the current quarter was disappointing.

watching shares of whirlpool, the company earning $1.73 per share short of estimates of $1.96. but the 20-12 guidance is well above consensus, the futures this morning have been positive all day long. you're watching the futures up by about 84 points above fair value coming after positive numbers in china that have been fueling things not only here but in the european markets. andrew? >> despite gloomy jobless data out of europe, the markets there getting a pop. investors encouraged by data showing slight growth in january. and they're also watching results from portugal's latest auction. the country was able to sell all 1.5 billion in euros and bills with yields falling sharply from the prior auction from the three-month and six-month bills. >> are they t-bills? >> they consider t-bills? >> portugal bills. they're not t-bills, they're

from portugal. they're like a long way from -- good prenuns yags on nevada. i had to throw a flag over here. >> i was there, yesterday, brian sullivan i had to throw a southwest airlines flag on him. terrible, nevada, nevada. >> i had one of the candidates call it nevada. >> they'll lose the primary. >> i thought it was nevada. >> facebook's ipo -- >> nevada? >> there's no, it's nevada. it's absolutely nevada. >> one of the candidates did that. facebook's ipo formally expected later. i should talk, because i have changed, i think it should be -- >> we're back on this again? >> we went for several months and now we're back there. >> it is german, it means to exchange. it was always my suggestion for the proposed nyse deutsche börse deal that the new exchange

should be called tauscha, too. >> if we're talking german. but my ancestors decided to change it to tauscha. >> they might have gotten the deal passed if they would have changed the name. >> that would have been very diplomatic, it never got steam. facebook is the deal of the day now that we know the fate of that deutsche börse deal and what we're expecting is prospectus to come today, filing for placeholder of $5 billion. andrew a want to talk a little bit about the underwriters, because obviously morgan stanley was a shoe-in here and what follows is a little guess until we see what the front page of that prospectus looks like and i know you have intel about goldman sachs. >> my friends are reporting that it's going to be morgan stanley lead left. jpmorgan in the middle and goldman sachs leads right. what's interesting is there was this competition whether it will be just goldman and morgan,

morgan and jp, the fact that all three are taking it and the other piece that goldman, not in the second position that jp has managed to get themselves in the middle. >> that's some crowded real estate for three book runners. >> and of course, as you reporting earlier, you have barclays still in there and credit suisse and are there other underwriters getting involved, allen and company which did historically a lot of these transactions your to imagine might jump in. barry sillbert who might be talking about this, they're not an underwriter per se, but they might get shares because of groupons. there's a number of other components, we might not hear that today. >> that oftentimes surfaces later on after the s-1. a lot of commentators say cnbc is whipped into a frenzy over these banks and who's going to get the deal. that's something that only we and our other corollaries are concerned about. the issue is ha if you take a look at what the proceeds of a

deal like this actually would be, even though face book could price around 1%, as far as the fees for these investment banks, that would be $100 million if the deal ends up being a $10 billion offering in the end. that's twice as much as banks made off of groupon. and you know, considerably more than some of the other internet ipos last year. >> so you're estimating in this that it's only a 1%. the margin is going to be much tighter at 1%? >> it could be the lowest-priced corporate issue ever. the only, you know, some of the smaller price deals we saw were gm, the $20 billion jumbo ipo last year. that priced at 75 basis points. and edf over in france, priced just above 1%, that was another government-owned entity. this would be the only corporate issuer to touch that level if they could negotiate down do that. it's still $100 billion. from the banks you could could see where the fourth quarter earnings, where the capital earnings slow dodd a drip that would be hugely important.

>> michael grimes who runs their technology practice. in terms of perhaps not the dollar figure, buts prestige and what it means for them to get what other offerings that are left. we have this great sort of tech run. what comes after this? >> right. well you know a lot has been written about grimes and his team, paul chamberlain and charles corey, about the pandora offering pitch they wore band tees under their blazers. for linked-in. they had to get on linkedin and pretend they are were searching for a job. >> what did they do for facebook? >> i'm not sure. >> we'll try to friend michael grimes while we're on the broadcast today. >> you won't be able to find him. >> meantime, stay with us, let's talk more about the facebook ipo. joining us now, anan sudan ram. we know each other very well, you're a finance professor at

dartmouth. weap i went to an executive education program and he was my professor. you have doubts about this ipo, with a are you worried about? >> well first of all, nice to see you again, andrew and the others, too. i'm worried that while it could go public at market capitalization of $100 billion, what sim plied in the valuation is an extremely aggressive set of business fundamentals. and would i as a long-term investor buy into this ipo? probably not. because my guess is the expected returns are going to be somewhat low going forward. at that price. >> you feel comfortable saying that, even without saying the prospectus, seeing what the numbers are and seeing the growth rate? that's the big question, and we ultimately don't know those numbers just yet. even though we have some estimates. >> that's a very good point. but i'm just working off of where the revenues are currently and literally asking a what if

question. in the sense of what is required, given the current revenue base and the kind of growth they have to achieve in their margins and in their free cash flows. and how much of the value is embedded in the cash flows, very long period out. year 11 and on. and sort working backwards to ask, look to justify this kind of a market cap what might be the kind of cash flow and cost-to-capital fundamentals and i'm reasonably comfortable that we're talking about extremely aggressive free cash flow growth rates and extremely high proportional values embedded from the year 2022 and on. and they have to get very big slice of revenue from a very slowly-growing industry. which is advertising. >> professor, when you think about the other big tech social media companies that have gone public over the past year, and i'm thinking of linkedin, and groupon and zinga, et cetera. do you think there's a tech bubble? would you be a buyer of any of

those stocks? >> i would not buy into those, either. in fact, in comparison to some of those stocks, i think linkedin is probably an exception there. i think facebook is a substantially higher quality asset in lots of different ways. they actually have a real business model that is perhaps sustainable to some degree in my view. and which is why i said it could go public at $100 billion, based on what others have done in the recent past. but i would like to make a distinction between what i call the market-to-market valuations, the relative valuations we see in these situations which could feed excessive valuations, which as a finance professor, i approach it as a mock-to-model standpoint which is the intrinsic value, what does the number imply in terms of the business fundamentals they have to achieve over 9 long haul. >> professor, this is kayla. obviously the platform has a lot of data about each one of its users and they can target ads

more directly if they start to utilize some of that information. to what extent do you think they'll have to compromise privacy for profit here? >> oh, that, at this point, i don't know. i think you know, most of us, in some way or the other, i'm not an expert on this industry by any means. but most of us have compromised our privacy to a great deal. but to a great degree. and i think it's going to become less and less of an issue going forward. but that is just pure speculation on my part. >> professor, thanks so much for joining us. great to see you again. go have a burger over at molly's burger up in hanover. good to see you again. >> i will do that and great to see you, too, andrew. >> fantastic. when we come back, our other big story of the morning, mitt romney winning florida handlely. ken duberstein will join us.

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we're back on this wednesday morning, u.s. stocks starting year on a very bullish foot. last month was the best for

january the markets in 15 years. that was up 3.4%. the s&p 500 rose 4.4%. joe, what happens in january, hopefully doesn't just stay in january. hopefully happens for the rest of the year. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. nice green arrows, the dow looking up over at 78 points if we open right now, the s&p 500 would open about seven points higher and the nasdaq would open 12 points higher after heavy news amazon's big miss and obviously the nyse transaction falling apart with deutsche börse, that was expected. >> china seeing promising numbers. i think the pmi numbers have turned things around not only here, but in europe. >> the amazon news, i immediately had deja vu, because amazon so many times in the past has had, has had margin issues because they're trying to do something that's never been done and it costs money to do it and people write them off when they're building out warehouses.

>> i saw, i saw the revenue and i looked at my credit card bill and i thought, how can they miss. >> i did the same thing. >> keeping all of these people in business. >> it will pull back the day. but in the past when they spend a little money and -- >> but this is different. because you have to have the idea if revenue starts to drop off, that's been the different concern this time around on wall street. and revenue missed for the last quarter and they warned on the the revenue guidance for the current quarter and that's what has people saying hold on a minute. >> before the revenue was growing and people were upset because their margin was compressed. >> amazon, climbed a wall of worry because it was going to be impossible to do what it does. anything that you want to have somewhere, to be able to send it out in a couple of days and have the warehouse -- >> i always. >> the question is, is it worth 100 times. >> and the analysis said customers are winning. people like us are loyal users,

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which brothers made the first powered plane flight. the answer? the wright brothers. welcome back, everybody, mitt romney handily winning florida and now turning his focus to nevada. joining us with his reaction to the primary, is ken duberstein, he's the former chief of staff for president ronald reagan. he's the chairman and ceo of the duberstein group. and ken, it's great to see you this morning. >> becky, great seeing you. good morning, guys. >> good morning. you know we were watching and we expected romney to win last night. that was what the polls had been predicting going in. he won by a landslide, by a lot of measures. and what's interesting is i had seen some of the notes you laid out before. and in some ways you almost

didn't want that big of a landslide win? >> look, it was a clear-cut blow-out victory across the board, all demographics point to mitt romney. but sometimes you can win too big. what mitt romney needs to do i, think is two-fold. number one, unify a republican base which still has less energy for him than they do for beating barack obama. and number two, to do it in a way that doesn't diminish his opportunity to appeal to independents, who he's going to need to win the election in november. >> that's a tall order, how does he run right and run center at the same time? >> that's the challenge for him. and the longer that newt gingrich and rick santorum play and the conservatives remain discontented, the poll that i've been seeing overnight in the exit polls show that 40-some

percent of conservatives don't think he's conservative enough. and 34% of the republicans in florida would like to look at another candidate. he needs to start building energy. he needs to appeal that he is the person who is most electable. the conservative who is the most conservative, that can be barack obama in november. at the same time, he needs to remember the 11th commandment of ronald reagan. which is thou shall not speak ill of another republican. that sounds very quaint these days. but you know, after $20 million of negative ads in florida, and it proves that negative ads do work, but people starting to say -- enough. where's the bold vision? where's the positive. that can carry us to victory in november. those are the twin opportunities that he has. >> you know, ken, it seemed to me that he actually gained some momentum when he did go on the attack after gingrich in the last debate.

after south carolina. >> well, i think -- >> some people who said they didn't think he could be a fighter to that point. >> becky, i think he did -- you know, make sure that everybody understands, that he has passion. that he is a fighter. that he can take the fight, not only to newt gingrich. but more fundamentally, to barack obama. that enhanced him. and yet the conservative wing of the republican party still is not sure that he's the right person. >> you know, ken, you know that, nice guys finish last a lot of times. you look at whether gingrich was justified or not after what happened in iowa. but he took it, he definitely took it down into the trenches or even further, further south. so you knew that it was going to get nasty. when you talk about, i wonder whether a conservative favorite, and i'm talking, you know the conservatives that we're talking about, really hard-core social conservatives. i don't, i question whether they can win a general election any

more. because it's gotten almost like the left wing of the democratic party. they're so out there that -- it's hard. i mean it is tough to win a general election and still be the conservative darling, because most people aren't that conservative any more. >> joe, what you have to do is make sure they remain energetic so they come out and vote. >> but the obama factor might do that, ken, you got to admit that. >> that's what i said. >> yeah. >> what i said is there's more energy and enthusiasm about beating barack obama -- >> but that will be there. >> but rather than for mitt romney. and your question, your question about newt is you know, he's almost like the resurrection republican. >> i know. >> does he, is there a third resurrection. >> it could be jason. yeah, there's 14 "friday the 13th." he had to come back from the grave a few times, jason. i don't know what's possible with newt. he came back, he lost all of his first people in the first week

of announcing, remember, ken? >> absolutely. you never can write off newt. but right now, mitt romney's in the driver's seat. he's in the commanding position. but he has these dual opportunities that he has to focus on. >> and he can, if the economy improves. let's just assume it does. how much harder will it be for romney? and do people come out the same way they feel right now. the sort of anti-obama vote, if you will, does that exist in the exact same way it does in six months from now, if the unemployment numbers are a lot lower? >> well, define "a lot lower." if we're still on a trajectory going downward, heading towards 7.5%, which nobody is predicting. no reliable economist is predicting, then obviously it's the economy, stupid and that really helps obama. but if, whether it's cbo or any of the other estimates that are coming out, that are saying that the unemployment rate is going

to stay over 8% and there isn't going to be a strong trajectory downward, ala reagan in 1984, then i think the economy remains the single issue and it's something that helps romney. >> you're not going to wipe out $5 trillion add to the deficit. you're not going to fix entitlements. and the u.s. economy is a vibrant -- it's supposed to do this. it's, unless someone kills it or comes close to killing it, it's supposed to grow like this. and it's below plan. it's below a trend line over the last 40 years on how it's growing. i mean it's going to work in spite of a lot of things, that do -- i'm not buying that. that if it improves a little bit. that's what it's supposed to do, it's been four years, it's supposed to improve a little bit. >> that's what i'm suggesting, joe, it's supposed to be a strong trajectory. 7.2% gdp. nobody is suggesting a half of that and look how unemployment went from 9.5%, to 7.5%.

it was a strong downward trajectory. nobody is predicting that. that's why the answer to your question is unemployment and the economy are going to play a major role in this campaign. >> and the stock market, when that does, that's a leading indicator and you will see people say look how well the stock market is doing. other people, larry kudlow, others, i won't mention any names, they'll point to the counterfactual and say, if you see romney's approval ratings start going up, on intrade, his electability going up, you can say the stock market is anticipating next year. >> and i agree with that. >> yeah. good, all right. ken, we agree with a lot of things. i was going to give i some grief about saying romney belongs on the top of a wedding cake. because you said that in the notes. and reagan, reagan was a handsome, guy, too, that they thought was sort of superficial and not authentic. >> joe, you're not old enough -- >> i am old enough, i remember. ken, thank you. comments, questions about anything you see here on "squawk," email us. i wish people thought of me on

top of a wedding cake. i'd like that good-looking. >> the perfect groom. >> the portly -- i look like -- at cnbc.com you can follow us on twitter my job is to find the next big sound. they sound awesome tonight. and when i do find it, i share it with the world. you landed the u.s. tour ? done. this is fantastic ! music is my life and i want to make the most of it thout missing a beat.

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welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc on this wednesday morning, i'm andrew ross sorkin. here are your morning headlines, european regulators have blocked a proposed merger of the nyse/euro next and deutsche börse deal. the move was widely expected. the two will work on unwinding the agreement. nyse chief duncan needer haur that the company is prepared to move forward with its strategy. and mortgage applications fell last week. according to new figures from the bankers association. this as average 30-year mortgage rates edged lower to 4.09% and whirlpool shares called higher, investors encouraged by the earnings forecast of $6.5 to $7 a share, well above estimates of $5.85. the appliance make's fourth quarter numbers were short of

estimates. profits were up 20% from a year earlier. taking florida the latest battle. is there time for newt gingrich to launch another offensive. joining us is donald trump, chairman and president of the trump organization. donald, always great to talk to you this could be a key inflection point. there are a lot of people who are saying this is it for romney. but there are other who is say newt could hang in there. especially if someone like santorum drops out what do you think we're looking at? >> i have to say i'm very happy that the new york stock exchange is not going to germany. >> why? >> i've been complaining about that for a long time. because the new york stock exchange should be in this country. it shouldn't be owned by somebody else, another nation, another company. it shouldn't be involved with, the new york stock exchange should be this country. so i'm very happy to see it, becky, to be honest. i think it's a good thing for the country. >> donald, were you surprised that it wasn't regulators here that stopped it? it was regulators over in europe? >> i was very surprised.

i think it's a great deal for them, i don't think it was a good deal for us. so we approve it, and they don't. but i'm very happy. i think it's a big, big win for this country. i think it shouldn't have been allowed to start with so i'm happy about that. as far as mitt is concerned, he did great in the debates. he did a lot of advertising. and i was in florida last weekend, you got hit left and right with ads. it was amazing, actually. and you know, newt's got a good percentage of the vote. he can go forward. i certainly would say that mitt romney has the advantage. big advantage. >> you know what struck me last night looking a the some of the numbers, donald is that if santorum weren't in the race, it would be a much closer, neck and neck, especially if paul wasn't in the race. if you assume that people who are voting for santorum would vote for gingrich over romney. >> that's true, but not everybody would. and you know, he won by a pretty good margin. assuming 70%, he still has a pretty good victory. i think it's going to go down. it's going to go a long way. there's a lot of ill will.

i know both gentlemen very well and there is tremendous ill will. i mean -- you know, whoever is losing, just doesn't want to get out. because they just don't want lose to the other person. it's really, i watched ken duberstein, who is a fantastic guy by the way, and i watched him just previous and he was talking about reagan. never knock another republican. well, they broke that rule. >> people have pointed out reagan said that when he was the front-runner. so it's a lot easier to say that. >> it's much easier when you're the front-runner. >> is this good for the party, bad for the party? is it good for party because it produce as more battle-tested candidate? or is it bad for the party because it tears people apart and makes them spend a lot of money on each other instead of focusing on the opposite party? >> well there's tremendous animosity, even hatred. but i think in the long run it may turn out to be good. number one, it's battle-tested, you'll have a battle-tested veteran in there against obama and they're learning how to fight right now.

you have to give mitt a lot of credit. he went in not on an up and ended on an up. but maybe more important is the fact that you're going along this period where you're going to get a lot of publicity for these candidates or for our final candidate. and they're talking about the republicans and they're not talking so much about obama. they're talking about the republicans. if you remember john mccain won early, we had four months of silence. that we weren't talking about anything and then the race started and it was, it wasn't so pretty. the fact is, that the longer it goes, the more they're talking. and i think that may be very good for the republicans. >> hey, donald, we just had a discussion about let's say the economy gets better and my point is, you know, the economy is supposed to do well, it's the greatest economy in the world. you know, it's the envy of the world and we're supposed to be adding jobs and growing. does it, is it, will the view be that obama's policies were responsible for the economy growing? or the economy grows in spite of

a lot of the policy? >> well other than the stock markets, i don't think the economy is doing very well. but the stock market is doing well, so maybe they could say that's an early reflection. we'll have to see what the stock market knew. but i think if the economy does get better that's a big advantage for obama. it always has been an advantage for the sitting president. if the economy gets better, that's a big advantage for the sitting president. >> we all want it to get better. >> absolutely, we do. >> right? but then you come down to just the overall vision about, you know, which economic model works better. you know, the one espoused in europe or the one that we've lived by for 300 years. i mean that wouldn't be a bad choice, either. and as i've pointed out, we've done nothing for entitlements, we've done, the deficit, you know, it's an all-time record at this point. you got to go back to truman to get close to blowing it out like we have done the last three years. >> that's correct. >> donald, you mentioned the stock market. when you were on in the fall you made a pretty bold and

successful stock picks. where are you on the markets now? we've had a good january. >> okay, you know i'm not a market player, but i bought a lot of stock. a number of months ago i announced it on your show. i bought a lot of intel and different stocks. and let's see, proctor and gamble. i bought some of the banking stocks because they looked so low and they've come back, but not as much. but some of these stocks have done really well. some of the tech stocks have done really well. i'm, i don't consider myself to be a stock market guy. >> but you seem to be pretty good at it. are you a buyer or seller? >> i'm sort of a buyer. but you know, at some point i may be a seller. what-day know? i watch your show. i'm a stock market person who learns everything from your show. so maybe i'm supposed to pay a commission to your show. a lot of guys go out and hire the funds and they pay them a farther tune and they pick the same thing. i can pick johnson & johnson,

also, right? maybe you are my hedge fund fellows. >> you're friends with kraft, right? >> very good friends with bob kraft. >> let me just tell you, bob kraft is a great guy. and he was married to a fantastic woman, myra. and you know, they have a special little thing going. if you watch a couple of those games the way they were won with the field goals and -- you know, they talked about augusta win. so we're going to have to see what happens. but i think it's going to be a great game and tom brady is a friend of mine, we play golf together. he's another great guy. >> he's good at golf. >> he's good at everything. he's good at everything. he's very good at golf. >> so you were -- >> i have some awfully close friends, but i also have close friends on the other side so don't embarrass me by asking me the question, okay? >> come on, donald, you're a new yorker. >> i don't mind when you guys ask me about stock picks. >> how about, what are you -- >> i don't like the question about that. >> how about this, you got any

room in that new cemetery? that's a pretty more bid -- >> what are you buying cemetery -- i didn't understand that one. >> i'll tell you what, i mean do you want to hear about my play? i have a course that you know very well, it's successful. it's called trump national in bed minister, new jersey, i bought some land near it. i went to a group of members that are there every day, they're there at 7:00 in the morning, 9:00 p.m. eating with their families. went up to a hole group i said, how would you like to have a cemetery right near the golf course? and they got absolutely, they couldn't stand it. they couldn't stand it. ten minutes later they all came over to me and they said, what a great idea. we want to buy plots. so i'm looking for an approval on the cemetery. maybe i'll go there, too, who knows? i like the members very much. >> it's beautiful. i don't think you -- you know, i don't know. >> donald, did i understand that right, they first said we hate the idea, and ten minutes later they completely changed their

mind? >> i went to them at breakfast. there were 20 of them sitting around. how do you guys like this idea. they said, that's disgusting, don't even talk about it. then i'm sitting over there, they come to me in a group deny minutes later. they said, you know, i was thinking, that's a great idea. i said would you rather be buried here or would you rather be buried in some place where nobody is ever going to see you again, that's the end. and they said, that's a great idea, i may have started a new thing for golf courses. >> is it close to the golf courses? if you miss, if you hit a good drive and then you pass your, the future plot, i think you wouldn't even care about the drive. you'll be depressed and you'll hit a very bad second shot. >> i should have known it's only a matter of time before you get into the fricking cemetery business. >> i'm not in love with it, but it's a business that's never going to go bad.

>> eve lyn waugh thing. >> the guy wants a funeral when he's alive. that's an idea for you. why not have a big party while you're alive as a funeral to see who comes and. >> it's a great movie. >> maybe you're right. i will say i've take an lot of heat on the cemetery. the more people think about it, they say that's not a bad idea. >> it's a beautiful place. i just don't know if you are that aware. i hope i'm somewhere else, but -- after it happens. >> i can save three really nice plots for you guys, okay? i'll save three beauties, all right? >> all right. >> hopefully it's going to be the long time. but i'll save three beauties. >> all right, donald, thank you. i think that's something we're looking forward to. >> no, no, no. donald, thanks a lot. we'll talk to you again, soon. >> coming up, florida governor rick scott on the results from his state's primary.

"squawk box" back in two minutes.

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maybe you thought about facebook going public or want to say hello to the gang, tweet u us, @squawkcnbc is our handle. the fight for florida was a nasty battle between mitt romney and newt gingrich. with gingrich vowing he won't quit, the field of candidates now put their chips down in nevada. here more with the heated gop battle, senator fred thompson, former gop presidential candidate who has endorsed newt gingrich and familiar to everyone, you know, i got to apologize, i look at you and i just can't, i can't, i can't look at you without saying, you buried the report. you buried the report. >> the good old days. i always get introduced as a failed presidential candidate. i won two senate elections, you know. and served in the senate. >> i know. >> nobody ever mentions that any more. >> all i talk about is "cape fear." hey listen, now you're talking.

>> we have had people on and duberstein and others, still talking about the conservative base of the party, jonesing or really wanting somebody else. we're still hearing that. >> conservatives, conservatives don't say jonesing. >> they don't? maybe i'm, maybe i'm more mainstream. maybe independents, you know what i'm saying. don't you think at this point we're kind of, conservatives are stuck with romney, they better get used to it? or you still think newt has another friday the 13th comeback? jason 15? >> you got two or three things there. i think number one, what little bit i heard ken say, i think it was a good point. and that is, that this election may come down to turn-out. this election may come down to enthusiasm. mitt coming out of florida has got to realize he's got some

work to do there. the conservatives, the more conservative voters in florida voted against him. the rural areas in florida voted against him. there's, there's not a great deal of trust there. and i think that really coming out of florida, it's more indicative than ever that you got a choice between a proven conservative when he was in his public life, held office, against someone who was not. >> okay. you've seen some of the stuff, you must have chafed a little at some of the stuff he said about private equity, or some of the stuff about goldman sachs, or -- >> let me set that in perspective for you. i hear that going back and forth. yeah, it ain't bean bag. they're both this, they're both that. newt was the only guy in the first half of all the debates, who not only didn't attack someone else on the stage, but

chastised the moderator for trying to get them to talk about each other instead of the issues. instead of the fact that we as a nation were going to hell in a hand basket. which he thought was maybe a little more important. and until newt made the mistake of getting the lead. and romney unloaded on him and and has been doing so ever since. there's such a thing as a negative or a tough ad. romney ran an add persistently. his key ad said newt was run out of congress in disgrace, that's into the true. its been pointed out to those folks that it's not true by "the wall street journal" and everybody else who has taken a look at it. >> isn't it that newt had more issues that he didn't want talked about? >> beg pardon? >> could it be that he started on a more positive note because he didn't want people looking at some of the skeletons that have been kind of hanging out there. >> that really worked, didn't it? no.

he, he, he's running because he, he knows the direct this country is going. >> great to have conservatives principles, fred, but if he ends up like barry goldwater with, all of these great conservative principles, it doesn't help us very much. >> well if he ends up like ronald reagan, it will help a lot. >> so you would like to see romney, his tax plan become more, more conservative? where is he, where is he missing the -- >> you mentioned a good area there. his tax plan. you know it's very meek. it's very -- fiddle around the edges. his capital gains tax plan. he has no capital gains tax benefit to anyone who actually pays capital gains. he cuts it off at $200,000, which is what president obama does. on obama care, we're simply taking that issue off the table. rick santorum is right. he can't talk about it, because the president is going to turn to him and say, mitt, i've got

ten guys here who will swear they worked on both plans and they're somewhere in 15 different ways. those are, those are the things. and everybody is talking the right game now. mitt is talking a very good game now. if he got elected and became president and carried those things out, it would be a very good thick for the country. the question is when you've got somebody who has been on both sides of so many issues and is proven to be that opportunistic. can you, can you really rely on that, especially when they're winning, you talk about winning dirty or winning ugly? especially when they're winning, by a very moderate amounts when they win. after spending millions and millions and millions, overspending their opponents many, many times. he's had six years he's been running for president now. and he's eking out these victories here and there. good one last night for sure. but you know, that's not exactly a juggernaut, if you are starting to look at someone to

go up against barack obama. and the billion dollars that he's going to have. and all of the, the energy that his campaign is going to have. >> all right. we got to go. senator, we appreciate it. we appreciate talking to you, we would like to talk to you again at some point in the future. >> thanks a lot. appreciate it. >> buried it in the report. let's look at the markets, you're looking at the futures up by triple digits right now, they've been stronger all morning this is about the highs of the session. dow futures up by 102 points, the s&p is up by ten points, we still have adp, the private-sector employment number coming up. up next on squaurk box, don't start your day without knowing the names that will make your money. [ female announcer ] goodnight gluttony,

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why don't do this for just anyone, faber. this is an maul orchestra. >> you only do it for -- >> and penguins? >> it's amazing how many people remember the penguins, but we do. >> of course they remember.

>> you actually have, when is this news, if i talk long enough will it come out? >> i don't think so. >> but it is, no one else has it? >> yeah. it's involving an active m&a situation. no the that large. >> could he have broken it if he would have done some work? >> yeah. >> but you actually did the work? >> progressive answering the phone helps. do you do that? >> i don't answer the phone, i let it go to voicemail. >> what if it was a really big deal. >> he's got so many makeup and hair issues. you've got a lot of time. >> now that i'm learning the whole tv, diva approach. >> the coats were nice in davos. >> especially the second one. >> you have the exact same coat. all right. georgia gulf has been an active m&a situation. westlake chemical had offered $30 a share for georgia gulf. on february 1st, they increased 0 it to $35.

and they were rejected again by georgia gulf. what's interesting is westlake has said and will say in a press release to come out this morning, i'm told by people close to the situation that they're not going to man a proxy fight. unclear as to why they want to try to keep it friendly. but they seemed to obviously be trying to galvanize shareholders here to perhaps get on the case of georgia gulf. not the largest of deals, but an active situation. one that is contested. and nonetheless, it does seem that georgia gulf wants to stay independent. even at 35, which is a 77% premium to where this thing was. >> if the suggestion if it were to go hostile, they wouldn't have the support of shareholders? if you had the support, wouldn't you go for gold and just do it? >> you would expect to. it's february 12th, they could file proxy, they could go after at least some of the -- >> give it a week or two, see what kind of push you can get from shareholders. >> have been any different number of event managers at the stock of the it's rights at 35. >> do we know what percentage of

the shareholder base is turned over? >> do not know. >> cool. >> we don't get to talk m&a. >> we rarely talk about it. it's kind of nerdy, but it's fun. >> any time, come on down. >> he had the right questions to ask. did he not ask those? >> i didn't ask any of them. >> he couldn't break it and you asked none of the right questions. you two guys together might find the story. >> we are the past of m&a, yes. that's what we are. not the future. >> donald has some cemetery plots, if you're hanging up your spurs. do you believe that? >> ron baron says, that's his idea. >> i said ron, do you want to take credit for that? there's something, that's why the tv show, "six feet under" that's why -- it's an uncomfortable rollout. service corp. international. >> another one, too. >> great novel. >> get up early in the morning with us. >> we'll be back. when we come back, we've got

breaking news on the jobs froth. the adp private payroll data is a few minutes away. and reaction to the florida primary, with the man who runs the sunshine state. governor rick scott is our guest.

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breaking down the results from florida. >> the people in this room and the people all over florida, thank you tonight for this great victory. we'll talk politics with florida governor, rick scott. romney get thing the nod from florida republicans. >> a competitive primary does not provide us, it prepares us, and we will win. >> how would he fare against president obama in the general election? we'll have a bipartisan debate with representatives fredricka wilson and connie mack. we're counting down to jobs friday, an early read at 8:15 eastern with the adp employment report. the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide, i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity futures are back up to 9 0, 91 points above fair

value and that adds to a great january. at least on the open. and i guess there's some, it's once again, things that happen in europe, he guess some funding italy went well. >> this was china, too. >> but whatever it is, we've got different reasons every day for the slow, steady move that we've seen in the averages. >> i'm i'll take the march higher any day. in our headlines this morning, watch shares of amazon.com at the open. the company's fourth quarter revenue falling $1 billion short of expectations. we talked about it last hour. net income fell sharply in guidance for the current quarter was very disappointing. mitt romney of course winning florida's primary in a landslide last night. he now has three times as many delegates as newt gingrich. despite the one-sided setback, gingrich vows to fight on. let's check the european markets, equities there in positive territory today.

this is from some good manufacturing numbers that came out in china. also, from some decent numbers in germany. as we've been watching through the course of the morning. right now you can see the ftse 100 is up by 1.3%. the cac 40 in paris up by 1.5%. in germany, the dax is up by 2.2%. these are massive gains, even in italy and athens. the athens composite up by 2.8%. that's been helping things out here in the united states. if you look at the euro right now, it's at 1.31.82, relatively flat. but we've seen significant gains in the euro over the last week or so. eu antitrust regulators blocking the merger of nyse euronext and deutsche börse, the nyse ceo joined thus morning with the chairman of the company. >> this was a chance in the wake of a crisis that focused us all on how bad opacity is to deliver the markets, a large, but very

transparent and highly regulated marketplace for not only the exchange-traded products, but also the otc products, which all the regulators around the world are trying to merge in the exchange-traded space. i think it's a missed opportunity for europe, i think it's a missed opportunity for the markets and i think it's a missed opportunity for a lot of investors. >> the nyse says it plans to focus on a stand-alone strategy at this point and also to buy back shares. the other big story of the morning, the impending facebook, the impending, the impending ipo of facebook. cnbc's julie boreston joins us with more. >> good morning to you, andrew. we expect facebook to file its s1, it could be as early as today. drafts of the document are still being finalized. and this filing will tell us just how successful facebook really is. sources tell me to expect facebook to report about $3.8 billion in 2011 revenue. with about $1.5 billion in

operating profit. my sources tell me that about 90% of facebook's revenue comes from advertising. investors will be digging into this filing, to see facebook's model. just how fast is revenue growing, for metric and also for metric of how engaged users are and how much they actually shower. both of those will help indicate how lucrative facebook's advertising could eventually be. we'll see what facebook says about the rest of its business. which is primarily the cut it takes from the sale of virtual goods for social games as well as the cut it takes from music and movie purchases. the s1 will also reveal the new facebook billionaires. redbush securities estimates that mark zuckerberg owns as much as 25% of the company. which would be worth between 20 and $25 billion, depending on facebook's valuation in terms of other big names we should look for, co-founders are expecting to be sitting on about 6% and 5% stakes respectively.

depending on how many of the shares they have already sold. we'll also see big names like peter thiel, as well as shawn parker. we'll have to sew what kind of return on investment the institutional investors that have made big bets on facebook got. the names there are kleiner perkins, goldman sachs, as well as horizon ventures and microsoft who made big bets on facebook over the past five years. we'll see how that all turns out. now in addition to all the financial information that facebook has to file here, we'll also hear a little bit from mark zuckerberg about his investigation for the next stage of growth for the company and also where he might find new sources of revenue growth in addition to the cut from advertising and also from the percentage that they do take from the sale of virtual goods, as well as movies and music. guys? >> standing outside of facebook's headquarters, julia, i want you to go stand in mark zuckerberg's parking spot so you can wait for him when he gets

there in the morning. >> i don't see any names on the parking spots, i'll have to dig around. maybe i'll just stand out front and wait for him to walk in. >> we'll see you later, julia. joining us now with reaction from last night's primary from tallahassee, is republican governor of florida, rick scott. reading every that you're basically like a closet romney supporter, haven't said it yet. what about it? >> i'm a supporter of the republican nominee. you know, we had great election yesterday. the florida voters, republican voters said that governor romney will be the one that they believe is going to do what we're doing here in florida, turning our economy around. as you no he, unemployment dropped 2.1% last year, the second highest drop in florida of any state in the country. 141,000 private-sector jobs, but we know we need somebody in washington that's going to reduce taxes like we've done. reduce regulation like we've done. and understand that businesses are jobs are created by the free market. that's what we believe in. >> we know all that, governor.

but the republicans in your state of florida gave him a 16-point lead, you can go with your, the republicans that are in your home state that you're governor of? >> well i'm, you know, i believe that republican voters ought to choose the inn nominee. i'm going to support the republican nominee and the election this fall will come down to the president obama or the republican nominee, who's got the best jobs plan. that's how i won a year and a half ago. i had a planned seven steps to 700,000 jobs and it worked. >> do you have a preference right now to for ha has the best jobs plan, either newt or governor romney? >> they both have jobs plans, i don't think they talk about it enough. i think they ought to be out there, almost any question they ought to say, this is how i'm going to help your family. each family in this country, and clearly my state says, i want my children to get a great education, i want to be able to get a job and i don't want government to raise the cost of living in our state or in this country. >> did you have a problem with the tone of the campaign that was run in florida? i guess it probably helps the

local economy? >> i think all the tv and radio stations probably enjoyed it. here's what i think happened. i think what happened is people made their choice based on the debates and when they went to the poll, they didn't vote against somebody. they voted for somebody. they said, who is going to help my family get my, make sure i have my job, or have my opportunity for a job. help my children with their education, keep the cost of living low. that's how they voted in the last time they voted for governor romney. >> yes, they did. >> so governor, if you had to guess, when do you think we will actually see with clarity, who the nominee is going to be for the republican party? >> i think there's probably clarity now. i mean look, florida is a microcosm of the country. 19 million people soon to be the third biggest state. the most important swing state in the country. the winner last night, you know, they won in all the different demographic groups. so i think the nominee will most likely be governor romney. just because this is, you know,

a precursor to what the country is like. so i think something will have to change for speaker gingrich or rick santorum or ron paul to turn this around. >> why don't you come out in favor of romney now? >> i think the right thing to do is let the voters do it. i think voters ought to be the ones choosing this. >> how about florida voters? >> they spoke last night. >> all morning we've been talking about this difficult and fine line that governor romney needs to walk between trying to consolidate his conservative base and trying to be more electable or more palatable to people in a are closer to the center. is he doing it right? is he too hot, too cold or just right? >> i think it's, i think it's, this is an election about not left or right. this is an election about jobs. this is an election about who has the blueprint for jobs. i think that both president obama and the republican nominee are going to have to say, these

are my three, five, seven steps i'm going to change the direction of this country because we know we cannot have trillion-dollar deficits. we cannot have second highest corporation tax rates in the world, all this regulation and expect companies to flock to america where we want all the jobs. we want the jobs here in america, not overseas. >> we have the adp report coming out in a little bit, governor, that's going to be followed up by the jobs report on friday. if the jobs report shows improvement over the next seven or eight months to the point where we see the unemployment number come down, drastically, does that mean the president, president obama, has the upper hand as we head into this election? >> it will clearly help the president. but in the end when people go to the polls, they're going to do what they did in florida. they're going to say, tell me what you're going to do going forward. i think, i think the president has got you know, he's been hurt by this, by this economy. but look, if the economy completely turns, it will help him a lot. >> all right. you're fine, you're good?

>> i'm good. great to see the governor. >> governor, we will speak to you again soon. hopefully. >> come to florida. everybody is moving here, the taxes are lower, the weather is better. >> florida came here recently. >> i know, it warmed up a little bit. >> thanks, governor. >> we wish you didn't have any income tax like you guys. coming up, the adp employment report is just minutes away, becky referenced it. as we head to break, take a look at the dow futures ahead of the data. we got a nice screen out. let's hope it stays that way.

welcome back to "squawk box." take look at the futures right now. the dow futures up by 82 points on the first trade dag in february, it comes after strong gains in the month of january, the dow was up 3.4%, the s&p up by 4.4% for the month. this morning we're getting help from china's factory sector. and germany coming in with the first manufacturing output in seven months, a rise. those have been helping things here and around the globe with the stock markets as well. the january adp report is just a few seconds away. this is a key number, because it

should give us insight as to what to expect on friday. back in january, the number was not that close, but february, is a new month and steve liesman is here with more on the number. >> becky, thanks. adp reporting the total private payrolls rose 107,000 in january. that is exactly spot-on, no pluses, no minuses, right with the consensus. now they did revise down december quite substantially. i've been seeing a revision like this for adp maybe ever. but down 33,000 for december, to 292. still well above what the government reported. now remember, the nonfarm payroll estimate is 125. that is for, that's the number we're going to get friday. that's the big bls number. that comes out. so my read is that adp is a little bit hotter. lot of guys have commented to me that adp in december and january is a little rough. it tends to be a little bit on the high side. so we'll see if the street buys

into this. let's get all of the questions answered, joining us live from st. louis is joel praken, chairman of macroeconomic advisers. i want to go to one issue which a lot of people are talking about, which is the, is job growth strong enough to bring down the unemployment rate. it seems like 170, if that's what's done, even minus 25 or so, or 20 for the government, is enough to have an effect on unemployment. >> 170,000 a month, could be enough to bring down the unemployment rate. if the labor force participation rate doesn't begin to rise cyclicly. if the participation rate holds constant or keeps declining as it has over the last several years you could actually see the unemployment rate declining with the gains like the one we're reporting this morning. >> let's look by industry, goods producing 18,000, service producing, 152,000. manufacturing, 10,000. construction even up 2,000. what do you make of this mix? is this a healthy mix?

>> i think it is a healthy mix. we can't have a sustained economic recovery, that's, that is proceeds on the backs of the goods-producing sector alone. they're simply not enough jobs in manufacturing. to power the overall employment number. we need to see good, healthy gains in the service economy. the private service economy. and the adp report has been showing those kind of gains the last several months, i'm heartened by that. but 170,000, what's the bigger picture here? it's been said that slow and steady wins the race. i like to win the race in the long run. i have to say i wish we were running a little bit faster right now. >> given the number of unemployed out there, 13, 14 million americans. let's look by business type. one of the features of the report you do, small 95,000, it was a big number in the prior month for small business. i've noted quite a bit, joel, that demand for small business loans in the senior loan officer survey hit the highest level since 2005. have we turned the corner on

small business, in your opinion? >> i think the data is encouraging, not just the employment numbers, but some of the ancillary evidence you cited. looks very promising. but let's face it, steve, i mean we need monthly gains in employment that are twice as big as this on a sustained basis for months on end. in order to climb out of the employment, the hole that we're in. we still have a long way to go. i'm encouraged by this, but i would like to see more. >> let's talk about seasonals and the misses in december and january. you were quite a bit above even with the revision, what are you like, 80 above what the government reported last month for the private sector? and then some guys saying to me, some of the economists writing that january can also be a difficult month for adp. do you think there are distortions in the data? >> well we know that there's an issue of seasonal adjustment in december. so let's go back and review what we had. our initial estimate had a three handle on it. the revised number has a two handle on it. the bls data for december in the private sector on it had a two

handle on it. it could be revised up. i think in the end for december, the adp estimate will be above the final bls estimate, by an amount that's close to a standard error. i think a lot of that could be seasonal. in january we don't feel like we have significant seasonal adjustment problems in january. sometimes there are long months in there. but we correct for that. i'm thinking that today's numbers probably a pretty solid read. we do know that the deceleration that occurs from december to january in the adp report does come primarily from the source data itself, not from the other data that is bls data and claims data used in the calculation. >> okay. let's bring in rick santelli, gentlemen stick around for a moment. rick, we've been watching the futures all morning and the grain, it didn't look like there was much reaction to this number in particular, but that could be because things were so positive before that number. >> you know, it's hard to gauge whether the positive equity action in particular is biased towards ignoring what really is you know, kind of a not quite on

the shoulder, not quite on the fast lane type of jobs number. i think it is what it is. you know, slow and steady might be a nice way to describe a cruise ship honking past its home town in europe. but it certainly isn't what i would like to use to describe the economy. i think our guest used that term. but he also said we need double these to really make streedides and i agree with that, so does the market. lop off another few percent of people in the workforce, which will make the jobs number look better. i think the average american understands that the current economy is right in tandem with the numbers like 170,000. >> i think we'd be lucky to get there. there's a lot of folks, rick, who are actually more pessimistic for friday, in part because of some of the stuff with the couriers that were on. the warm weather and that kind of stuff. morgan stanley for example is at 100,000.

i've seen some, trim tabs this morning said 45,000 based on some of the tax data that they follow. so i've seen a lot of pessimism. i want to go to joel here, joel, we did the 2.8 number in december. no one was really happy about the number or especially the composition. are you guys forecasting a slowdown in the first half of 2012 in gdp growth? >> we are. we're in the process of updating our forecasts now. but it looks to me like we'll show gdp growth somewhere around 2% in the first half of this year. and as a consequence of that, we're not looking for much of a decline in the unemployment rate in the first half of the year. maybe even a slight uptick. >> to what extent, joel, are you guys pricing in additional action from the federal reserve? i know that's kind of larry's department. but his call goes into your forecast. >> right, we're now anticipating the fed will raise the federal funds rate off the zero-bound in 2014. we think the hurdle for any other unconventional easings is quite high.

we don't anticipate that yet. but it will be dependant on the economic outlook and if we don't get a faster recovery, particularly starting the second half of the year, it's not impossible. >> rick, quickly, i know what you think the fed should or should not do. could you give us a sense of what guys on the floor think the fed will do? is qeb being priced into the term structure there? >> you know, guys on the floor are mostly in agreement that if you listen to the fed speak or you objectively read the statements, there is definitely a notion that qe 3 may be on the way. that's what they think about all the outside influence. if i ask them personally, do you think we're going to see it, they tend to say no. so you know, you're going to have to parse that in any way you see fit. >> a survey show, half and half. >> the hurdle is high. >> steve, rick, joel, gentlemen, thank you all for joining us today. >> thank you. coming up, more of today's top stories. and as we head to break, check

out the shares of aol. the company reporting better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings this morning. >> they came on strong and eased, it's working out for now. >> a rise in display advertising. offsetting an ongoing decline at its internet dial-up business. are they going to buy drugs? >> it could take pressure off the company. >> are they going to buy drudge? till to come, we'll break down the primary results with republican congressman connie mack and democratic congresswoman wilson face off. i had a print out of how many hours

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welcome back to "squawk box." in our headlines, international air passenger traffic rising 6.4% year over year in december. 48 traffic falling .8%. president obama will visit a northern virginia community center and draw attention to a proposal to help homeowners refinance. this plan will let people refinance their mortgages at lower rates, even if they owe more than their homes are worth. andrew? >> we'll get more of today's top story and then still ahead, we'll break down the primary results with two representatives

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welcome back to "squawk box." let's look at three stocks set to pop in today's trading. first up, marathon petd liam. it did report bigger-than-expected losses for the latest quarter. but it's instituting a $2 billion stock buy-back and instituting a new structure for its pipelines. and check out shares of molly corp., up on shares that chili's molly met is buying stake. it's a miner of rare earth minerals. and whirlpool sent to jump. appliance maker fell short of consensus with the its fourth quarter earnings, but its set above street expectations of $5.85 a share. and a halfistar issuing 2012 guidance falling short of analysts' expectations and announcing a new deal with t.

boon pickens on "squawk box" and phil lebeau joins us with more. >> i would like to welcome in dan houston the chairman and ceo of and a ha of navistar international. joining us from the headquarters in lyle, illinois, let's talk you reissued guidance today, falling short of estimates. yet at the same time, you're pointing towards the future with an announcement with clean energy that you plan to develop a fleet of nav-gas powered trucks, tell us about this announcement. >> yeah, phil, here's why we're excited about it. it gives our customers an opportunity to get into an alternative fuel and get a return on the investment they make, like immediately. it's a great commercial answer for alternative fuels. >> yet, one of the critics out there that i talked with yesterday said listen, it's

great that and a hanafistar say going to be moving to nat gas. how quickly will you able to ramp up a fleet of nat gas-powered trucks? >> phil, the demand for it is over the top right now. so it's as fast as we can get the product out there, which would be within the next six months. we're going to make an impact with these products in the marketplace. >> boon boone, how much of a savings is out there when you take a look at the trucking fleet in this country when you talk about converting to nat gas? >> you're saving $1.50 a gallon. some of these trucks are running 20, 30,000 gallon as year. so you're, you're talking about 25, $50,000 a year. so the return on it is, is great. but you mentioned that it was cleaner. yeah, it's cleaner by 30% over diesel. but it's also ours. it's abundant and it's domestic.

if we could get all eight and a half million of these trucks over a period of time, and those are the heavy duty six to eight-class trucks. if we get that 8.5 million, that's 2.5 million barrel as day, and we cut opec in half. that puts us in tremendous position to negotiate the price of oil. >> boone, where is the infrastructure right now and how quickly can clean energy and other players in the nat gas space develop that infrastructure along the interstate corridors in this country? >> they're under construction on i-10, i-40, 95, 5, 75. they're all, it's under construction. so there will be over 100 stations built this year. on those highways. so we've got to get it out there. to be able to take care of navistar and their trucks and all to be able to fuel them. >> dan, boone talks about 8 .5 million 18-whilers in the country right now. realistically when do you think

we can say half of the fleet will be nat gas powered? are we looking at something three, five, seven years down the road, from your projections, when do you see that happening? >> phil, let me try it this way. i think 10, 20% over the next year or two is very realistic. you know, to get to you know, boone's number of 50% or 100%, it will take more time. but the benefits of this is, as boone has pointed out. think about that, $1.50 a gallon times the number of gallon used, it's over the top. and what our deal does is it makes their investment virtually zero, to get into this market. >> and you talk about your customers -- >> our customers -- >> sure, go ahead. >> our customers have very little investment to get into this market. and they get all the benefits from it. >> but focus on this just for a second. you're going to, you know, call for 20,000 jobs on the keystone pipeline. this goes beyond that, you're talking about 100,000 jobs. this is you know, this is fuel

used in america. on our trucks and all. and this completely cuts out money that's going to opec. and that's, that's what we're after. that's what i'm after. >> boone, the truck makers and the 18-wheel market, obviously a huge impact. when you have discussions with automakers about the commercial market, there are a very select number of nat gas powered cars out there, very small number. when do you think that we might start to see a mass market nat gas car? one that truly makes an impact. i know you're talking about automakers because i've talked with them and they mentioned they're talking with you, what do you hear back from them? >> you've got 13 million vehicles in the world today. that are on natural gas and it's about 150,000 of them are in the united states. the united states has more natural gas than any other country in the world. so you know it's got to come together. because natural gas today is $2.50. >> when does it come together?

>> okay. let me, i'll conclude on it in just a second. you've got natural gas in the middle east, $15. you've got it, you've got it in europe, $13. what a huge arbitrage. what a huge opportunity. rebuild our economy on the back of cheap energy. i understand, and we're 15% cheaper on crude oil. and so our industry is doing such a good job for the country as far as industry. when do i think that could happen? i think you could get half of the vehicles in four or five years. >> in four or five years? but do you believe -- >> excuse me, not your vehicle, there are 250 million total vehicles in the united states. that is another, that's a question hard for me to answer because that will call for a greater infrastructure to accomplish that let's see the direction it goes. you can fuel your car, if you want to go to natural gas. can you fuel it in your garage at night. i have a fueling device. it costs me less than $1 a gallon.

>> boone, nobody is debating that the technology is not there. i guess the question is the commitment from the automakers when you talk with executives, are they saying you know what, boone, we see this developing this on a mass scale within the next year or two? or is this one of those, sounds good, but we're not ready for it yet? >> let me tell you, there's nothing wrong with the automakers i've talked to those guys for ten years, they say you get me the customers and we'll make anything you want. today if you went down and shopped for a natural gas passenger car in paris, france, you'd have a choice of probably 40 vehicles. so they all know the technology. they have it and general motors, ford, chrysler, they're all you know, they say just get us the customers, we'll make you the vehicles. this is all going to come together, i wish i could say it was going to come together in six months or two years or whatever. i don't have that number for you. >> boone pickens, the ceo of bp capital management. dan, last word to you. >> phil, i think what makes this special, it provides a

commercially viable answer so that our customers want this. that's why it's going to work. >> dan usteon, the chairman and ceo of navistar national and t. boone pickens, joe, it's a big day not only with this news, but we've got auto sales all day long. you had the earnings from chrysler, first profitable year since 2005. so we'll be talking to you quite a bit today. >> great, phil. >> while we're on the topic of autos i should bring you breaking news, ron bloom, the former car czar taking a job at lazar, a special adviser, he'll be working with their client is the letter carriers in the big debate over what to do with postal service. and he's not representing the government in this casings he's representing the workers. >> that's because the post office has its own plans for cutting like 120,000 workers. >> he's coming up with his own plan. that news just crossed on the tape as we speak. ron bloom in the auto business. figured it's a nice segue with phil.

>> and we're going to go to break. if you do, let's say you do decide to buy a python, let's say just say you do, you know what you would name it, right? >> if i bought a python. >> monty, monty, the python. >> that's why they got that up quickly. there it is. this is the name of that python, monthy. you got to go with monty. in your case it could be the full monty. coming up, we'll break down -- >> why in his case? >> i'm not going to do the full monty. >> we're going to break down the primary results with two representatives who are very familiar with florida politics, congresswoman fredricka wilson and connie mack. so -- tell me again what happened. i was downstairs making coffee, and we heard it. it just came crashing through the roof, out of nowhere. what is it? it's our ira.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now indicated up about 80 points. as you can see, down a little bit since adp not too much, slightly dispointing, guess that revision was slightly disappointing from last month. but the mother -- >> it could be that people are expecting to blow expectations out of the water. that's not indication. >> we'll see friday and liesman is still working on this fascinating story. >> are you going to tease that or -- >> i think people, he self-teases. >> we know he'll be on and we're

looking forward to it, basically, i don't think we have to say it, right? >> that is true. the results are in and mitt romney is one step closer to becoming the republican presidential nominee. joining us to break down the florida primary and look ahead to the november election, the republican congressman connie mack and democratic congressman, fredrica wilson. i'll start with you, connie, you've been heckling newt gingrich at some of the his rallies. i'm assuming that means you're a romney supporter. let's talk about the heckling, first. >> well of course i'm a romney supporter, because he knows how to get our country off the road to greece and back on the road to prosperity. but what i've been doing is what every campaign does, it's called bracketing. and so i've shown up at newt's events and i've stood in the back, quietly. and answered questions from the press. and so, you know, obviously this is a, something that the gingrich campaign was very sensitive about. and i think the reason is, they

never had a good answer for the relationship with newt gingrich and freddie mac. they didn't have a good answer for it nobody was buying he was a historian and they were very sensitive about it. >> miss wilson, i'm curious, when you look at what's happening in florida, and you, and you sort of fast-forward six months, does all of this campaigning by gingrich, sort of the aggressive attacks, does that help or hurt the president? you heard romney last night say this doesn't divide the party, it prepares the party. >> i think everything that they have done has helped the president. i'm surprised floridians even turned out to vote. the republicans have no message. they have no vision. and in a state where foreclosure is the number one issue, 44% of the people are under water in their mortgages, and not one time was the word "housing" ever mentioned. i'm just disgusted.

i don't know how they do it. we have so many people on medicare. they didn't talk about how mitt romney wants to change medicare into vouchers and they want, he wants to gut social security. and you know what? florida is big on education. and president obama is the education president. and his state of the union message he talked about how we should fix crumbling schools, how we need to keep tuition low. how we need to be aware of the class of 2012. what are they going to be doing? they need training, they need -- education. this is it a tragedy. education is the bedrock of this nation and these republican candidates are leaving out everything that's important to the people. they have no message, they have no vision. >> let me talk a little bit about florida and the electorate base there. in the last election, a lot of young people came out in florida in support of obama.

now there's a lot obviously of what might be described as disappointed obama voters. does the, the younger generation come out again? >> i think the younger generation will come out again. you have to remember that we're looking and focusing on the class of 2012. these are not the same children who entered at kindergarten. this is a new world for them. so the president is preparing for them. we are focusing on stem education, we're education is the bedrock of this nation and these students know, the college students know, and they're going to be right back out, right back there fighting for the president. because they know that he is the education president. and they love him. >> congressman mack, we got to get you a hat, first of all. beyond that, i don't know if you can see the screen there, congressman wilson has got a great hat on. but when you think about the base that's coming out for romney and becky noticed this early. if santorum had gotten, if

santorum had dropped out of the race, a lot of the votes would have gone to gingrich. and it wouldn't have looked like the landslide that it turned into last night. >> well, that's just not the case. in fact, i think polling suggests that if santorum were to get out, the votes would have been divided at least equally. between romney and gingrich. so but let me respond to something. i don't think congresswoman wilson was paying attention this last week. because all the republican candidates were talking about jobs, the economy, how to move this country forward. how to lower the deficit and the debt. you know, i traveled around the state this last week and everywhere i went, people were talking about housing, about jobs, about the economy. and are very passionate. in fact we had one of the highest turn-outs ever in a primary election. i think some on the left who are lock-step liberals would like to

see this turn this election into something else. but what it is, is president obama and the lock-step liberals like senator wilson have failed in their responsibility. the reason that there's so much energy out there is because we have such high unemployment, so many home foreclosures, the economy is sagging, this isn't a strong and vibrant country that it once was. we want to get off the road to greece that the democrats have put us on, and get back on the road to prosperity. >> we're going to -- >> that's what you're saying, connie. but that's not what the candidates were saying. i didn't hear them say, and mr. romney's economic plan, he does not mention housing one time. in his whole written plan that you can go online and read. so how is that such an issue for him? and medicare and social security, so many seniors. >> let me ask you, come join me on the campaign trail. mitt romney talked about it,

every stop he made. every interview he does, he talks about these issues. the problem is, is while romney is talking about how to, how the private sector creates jobs, the democrats in washington are passing policies that crush the hopes and dreams of small business owners. so mitt romney has been, has been an articulate fighter and champion for small business in our economy and you know, the people of the state of florida have risen up and said he is the guy that can bring us back to the road to prosperity which will create jobs. >> guys, we -- we apologize. >> we've got to leave it there. >> if you and your people will vote for that, we'll be just fine. >> congressman mack, next time either a hat or at least glitter or something. to spice it up. but we appreciate your time this morning. >> see you, home boy. when we come back on "squawk box," we talk facebook, the

florida primary and other things that traders will be watching this morning with the street crew at the new york stock exchange. ready or not, the stock of the day is coming up. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. the futures looking up, a little less up than they were earlier after that adp report. the dow would open about five points higher right now. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. carl, melissa and jim, hey, guys. i don't see any of you guys wearing glittery hats. >> i'm wishing -- >> i just put mine away. i felt a little cramped. >> you have to love florida. that was awesome. >> only in florida. >> exactly. it's nice when you can come in here and europe is not a weight around you're ankle. >> germany is having a big impact. >> allows you to focus on things like an amazon and of course facebook.

which of the two are you more interested in? >> amazon. amazon was bost supposed to be better revenues but not making a little more money. this is an ultimate growth story that sells at 60 times earnings with 30% growth. you can't have a multiple. >> do you feel like you might have been walmart ten years ago? >> walmart, once they were in 50 states, they were done. once amazon maybe is shipping everything that can be shipped -- >> is that the case right now almost? >> i don't want to give up on amazon because i want to see if the quarter's an aberration. they have a lot of kindle fire. there's a lot of moving parts. but it was definitely not what i wanted to see. and remember, they're opaque. it's not like, oh, i get it. you have less knowledge than you did when you started. >> what's the right multiple on amazon? >> when you have decelerating revenue growth, there's a multiple. decelerating revenue growth, you

can't put a multiple on it. >> thanks, guys. see you in just a few minutes. when we come back, we have the stock of the day. is it in your portfolio? "squawk box" will be right back. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box." it's time for the stock of the day. >> the stock of the day is whirlpool, fourth-quarter earnings and revenue slightly below expectations. but the optimistic outlook for the year ahead is causing a nice eight percentage-point move in the stock. $6.50 to $7 a share. well above street estimates. begs the question, are analysts clueless or what changed? just interesting that analysts are so far below what the company is going to be able to deliver on. i wouldn't think it would just be purely a better sales environment. something's missing there to miss the expectations by that much. >> i'm selling amazon. i can't get over it. >> it's a -- when you guys mentions what the valuation is. >> there's going to be a moment today or in the next week where people say, this is what the multiple is.

it's not 60, it's 30 or whatever you think it's going to be. >> i'm blinded by what jeff bazos accomplished. you can never sell everything online and have warehouses and make money -- it's impossible. >> he is a long-term player. his view is, i don't care about the quarter. i'm playing for five years out. >> at this point, what cramer said is the right thing. you look at revenue. when revenue starts to decline, look out. there's no multiple on it. that's the problem. >> the question is, is this just an aberration for one quarter, is it multiple quarters? that's going to be the issue. he said it right. you run out of places to sell this stuff. they still have a lot of markets to get into. how much would you pay? right now, prime is $79.95 or me