>> thank you for watching "street signs," everybody. the show is over. you can now watch the "closing bell." see you tomorrow. >> i'm finished. today, on the "closing bell," new month, hot rally. stocks kick off the new month with gains. how should investors play the market? with the dow back near 3 1/2-year high. we'll talk strategy straight ahead. plus, the facebook effect. which stocks will ride the wave of this year's big ipo. we'll get investor reaction. live from the new york stock exchange, this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. yes, risk is back on. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm bill griffeth here at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm maria bartiromo. we approach the final stretch on wall street. the market on a roll after posting the best january in 15 years. we continue here in february, first day, encouraging manufacturing data out of china

and europe, sparks the rally on wall street right from the get-go today. we are back within striking distance of 12,810 on the dow jones industrial average. if this market closes higher than that, it would mark a 3 1/2-year closing high for the blue chip index. coming up we'll see if the momentum will sustain. speculation that a final greek debt deal is just around the corner. we're zeroing in on that as well. can greece's government take the necessary and tough steps to get the austerity measures in place. we break down the angle coming up in the program. >> yes, we have heard that before, haven't we. that is partly what caused that rally this morning. good economic data from china and europe helped as well. sideways activity much of the day after the rally this morning. we're now 12,761. the best gainer today has been the nasdaq. a gain of 1.3%, 37 points to

2,851. the s&p 500 index continues to move higher above 1,300, a gain of 1.2% today to 1,328. enough from us. what about what the traders are talking about on the floor. here's bob pisani for that. >> we're going to leave the volume out. nothing to say about that. >> let me just say, i want to tell you one thing. >> she wants to talk about volume. >> i interviewed bob earlier today at nasdaq. i wanted to get his take on the deutsche bank. he said they are expecting one month, a year, of good volume. that's what -- >> one month? >> one month out of the entire year. in 2011 they had one good month. i'm talking all of wall street. in 2010, they had six weeks. so they're looking at 2012 and expecting one good month of volume. i had to get that out. we'll have the interview coming up. >> you have to lower the bar on what's considered good volume right now. i'm telling you.

>> big volume week is coming. >> i think that's a stunning thing. >> this is the month he was talking about. >> exactly. >> let's concentrate op the positive. manufacturing numbers globally, that was good. new start to the month. don't ask about the volume, even though it's a new start to the month. s&p up 1%. up more than 1% on the first trading day of the month the last five of the six trading days. here's what i'm happy about, guys. here in the u.s., we've got news. the s&p technology index, 10 1/2-year high. now, of course, it's nothing like it was in 2000. but look at the numbers. we're new highs here, multi-year highs. broadcom, great numbers, helping the chip sector. we had sea gate helping all the sectors. these are in the united states. we're not moving on greece. and we did get some news from greece. tomorrow's groundhog day, bill.

and they're close to a deal. they say by next week, close to finalization. it's getting there. >> that would be poetic justice to get a group deal on groundhog day. >> besides tech, the biggest part of the s&p, nearly 20%. the financial stocks, the second biggest component, also big leadership. look at the nice big moves here. this really moves the index. this really helps things overall. there's my take on the whole thing. i like our data. >> technology the largest portion of the s&p. last time it was financials. gotten smaller. thanks, bob. brian shactman with the movers and shakers at the realtime exchange. >> echoing some of what bob discussed, pretty much everything in the green except for mcdonald's and j & j,

chevron, everything else in the green. microsoft touched a new high today, and went over that $30 level. it touched a high of $30.05. we've been here before. i can remember three years ago at the nasdaq talking about whether it can hold 30. we'll see what happens this time with microsoft. a quick look at some of the financials. beyond what bob said, take a look at the insurers. american international, aig and hartford up 4% and 6%. citigroup had an upgrade today. bank of america the best performer in the entire dow jones industrial average. earnings we've been following on the plus side, whirlpool, broadcom, aetna, all gaining. revenue growth is the chief concern with amazon. finally, look what's ahead. a very busy day after the close. i will bring you a lot of these names and what the results are. qualcomm, chipotle, green mountain, what's a day without

green mountain and herb talking about it. we'll see what happens after the closing bell. electronic arts trading down. we'll hear from ea as well. >> brian, thank you. let's cover the waterfront from y europe to facebook. ipo filing from facebook is the topic. we bring in kayla and simon hobbs, both standing by at global headquarters. simon, wait a minute, we were hours away from a greek restructuring deal. now we are days away from a restructuring deal. what a surprise. >> that's true. what i wanted to draw everybody's attention to is the strong performance we're getting partly as a result of that entrance on germany. the german index, the bulk of the german index is up 12% so far this year. on the manufacturing data in the united states and china and germany, the likes of commerce bank, bmw, daimler chrysler, all

doing extremely well. last night we've got reported details on the fine print of that private sector deal in greece. i would say there are two things we need to watch out for, bill, in the wake of the headlines that you're quoting there. the first is the degree to which the ecb will reflect the haircuts that it took on the greek debt that was launched, with it, collateral for the sake of the greek government. the more important thing i think from a market stability standpoint is to listen to what the finance minister was saying in greece yesterday about having to make tough choices. that's a very important meeting potentially tomorrow, where the greek prime minister will get all the political parties around the table and he'll say, guys, there's one last thing we need to get our hands on the money, and that's to take down the minimum wage below 1,000 u.s. dollars a month. in europe, you may not be aware of this, but they have 13 or 14 monthly payments in wages, because you get double boubl at

christmas sometimes, and at the start of the summer. the imf and ecb, they want that removed as well. now, the politicians have an election in april. and they are now angling to position themselves as the friend of the people. many of them are saying, it is a red line to cut wages. if they refuse to cut wages, and they cannot get a vote through parliament, they will not get the money for that bailout that they need to make the payments at the end of march. so watch for the political headlines tomorrow. there is always, bill, as you know, that political risk. >> how would you love to be a politician in greece right now. very impossible situation. kayla, do we get a greek restructuring deal first or ipo filing from facebook? >> unless a greek restuck turg happens in the next 24 hours, i would say we'll get a facebook filing first. we have an hour left of trade and we still haven't seen it. that's leaving a lot of people

speculating. as everyone is raising concerns about valuation, i want to take a look at reporting of what i've done called the post-private premium. a lot of these internet ipos have traded on the private market. i looked at what the last trade of these companies, on the second market. if you look at groupon, last trade was $16 a share before it went public. a 25% premium. linkedin was $35 a share. its ipo price was $45. about a 28% premium. now, the last trade of facebook, of course, this won't be the last trade before it actually goes public, but the most recent trade is $34 a share. if you take the average of the two premiums, you get a share price of about $42.50. of course, the expectations are that the company will want to build in some room to actually have some upside for people who buy into this ipo. whether or not that is the share price we get has yet to be seen. it is interesting to look at,

where we saw these companies trading privately and where they actually go public. >> i have traders stopping me on the floor here asking me where they're going to list. that's, of course, sort of an inside wall street question. but it will be interesting to see where they decide they want to be traded. >> a lot of people remember the time when having a two-letter ticker meant you were trading on the nyse, and that's not the case anymore. even though people say they can trade on the ticker fb, that's not a tea leaf. you can't say that. we don't know yet. >> i asked greg about it, from his answer, it seems like they're still vying for the bush administration and decisions have not been made yet. >> i'm sure everybody's courting them big-time. thank you both. folks, see you later. wait for news to break on either of those stories. >> absolutely. the ten-year treasury yield, encouraging manufacturing data. we had good data this morning. rick santelli at the chicago cme group with that angle. over to you, rick. >> maria, indeed, some of the

news in europe, which has bob is in an entertaining fashion, kept us in the loop on, is it within reach or isn't it. maybe some of the data being a little better. if it's not as good as it could be expected, it's not as bad. yesterday's chicago number might have been a big down move from the last month. but there's not many 60 reits throughout the whole series. rates are up a bit, i guess is the short version. interday five, up a couple of basis points from yesterday's record low yield close. you look at tens, we're up about four, five basis points. it was also hovering, you know, within nine basis points of its 171 september historic low yield. the euro currency also playing into this maybe better news in europe. but i'm not sure any news is coming game. they're at $131.63. they were higher a while ago. all of this is important. another area, corporate supply picking up a bit. there was a time not that long ago, ibm was always a magical

issuer. they're coming to the marketplace with a $3 billion, one and a half, i think $3.5 billion deal. the brazilian oil conglomerate, and proctor & gamble are throwing their name in. the government's going to sell $72 billion in treasuries. and of course, last but not least, i just got an update on some of the mf issues, they're not going to be able to handle ha in a more futures bankruptcy chapter 7. that is the news of the day regarding mf. >> rick, thank you so much. we have so much to get to over the next two hours. hope you can stick around during that time for "closing bell." 40 minutes before the bell rings. the nasdaq very strong today. a gain of 37 points. >> so hoe douse facebook decide where it is going to trade? what is the nasdaq going to to

lure facebook? what about the nyse? that's what we'll take a look at, when it goes public. robert greifeld will lay it out. >> is the health care reform law affecting the bottom line? we'll talk about that among other things. >> the hype surrounding facebook's upcoming ipo, can it contribute to a new technology bubble. >> first, here's a look at the sea of green for the s&p 500 as we begin the month of february. you're watching cnbc, we are first in business worldwide. glad you're with us. so, how was school today ?

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welcome back. we've got 45 minutes to go here in the trading session. time for a quick market stat check on the dow. the major average extending january's gains on the back of

the upbeat global manufacturing data we got overnight. and this morning. and as greece, we are told, we think, we believe nears a deal with its private creditors. right now the dow jones industrial average is up 124 points. it was up 152 at the high of the session, back on the open this morning. among the gainers today, finance and technology leading the way. bank of america, hewlett-packard, united tech, boeing and travelers, all rising sharply as we head toward the close. maria? >> lots of news today on the exchange front, of course. first this morning, we did see the earnings beat from nasdaq omx group. also making headlines, the failure of the deutsche borsh deal, and the new landscape for the global exchanges. in my exclusive right now, bob greifeld talked about earnings. >> it was an increase year-on-year that we pulled out. but it was our second best

quarter ever on a nongap basis. we did that when you really had a declining volume environment. in many ways it showed the strength of our business model where we diversified away from a transaction-based business model. what we diversified in is commodities, in both the nordicing, one of the most successful ventures in the uk. we have three of the six largest providers contributing every day to our auctions. and that grew 100% quarter-on-quarter. so pretty remarkable. we were trading about nine hours, now we're up to 20. >> what about volume. obviously an issue for all the exchanges, all the financial services business, by the way. how do you deal with such low volume, low volatility, when you're dealing with nervous markets. >> that's a good point. when you look at 2011, we had one month of good volume. that was august. in 2010, it was really about six

weeks, in may and june. so in our model, in our planning, we really count on one to two months of good volume. the others, if they're mediocre, we can get along. even in our transaction services business, half the revenue now comes from recurring revenue. so we've been focused on what can we do beyond providing the trading to make it easier for our customers to be in the business. that's been a source of value for our customers and growth for us. >> going forward, where does the growth come from? >> it's important to us to grow at all cylinders. we certainly see big opportunities in the derivatives market for us. we're making progress, and that's ha we call ntox. >> how important is the facebook deal to nasdaq? >> clearly we're focused on providing two facebook a clear description of the value propositions we offer. and when you talk about the ipos

that came to market in the fourth quarter, we've done very well, we've got zynga to come to nasdaq. the products we've developed over the last five years to make it easier to be a public company, we have a whole suite of products that we say, we know it's a lot of rules and regulations to being a public company, let us ease the burden. so, yeah, we clearly want to articulate that to facebook. we're going to give it our best shot. >> let me get to the news of the day, deutsche borsh. >> i think everyone will go back to the drawing board and say where do we go from here. i won't comment on specific opportunities. i think the next wave is going to be more in the tuck-under category. i don't think you'll see a mega merger be the next announcement. >> it doesn't impact us directly.

we've been saying for the last 18 months, or so, that we've been focused on one organic growth. we call it a bolt-in acquisition. and three, capital returns to shareholders. we're continuing to do that. so obviously we paid great attention to the transaction, but it didn't impact our day-to-day lives in any meaningful way. >> what happens next in terms of the consolidation in the industry? do you go back and try to give it another go? are there other holes in the business, internationally, that you perhaps could pursue? >> well, i would say this. what we learned from us trying to buy nyse, and deutsche trying to buy nyse, if you end up with 90% market share, it's probably problematic. so we got turned down in a hard no by the dog, obviously deutsche got turned down just today. we certainly believe there will be deals in the exchange space, but it's going to be hard to do a deal where you see such an

overlap in dominant position coming out of the market. >> 2012, what does it look like? what are you expecting, and do you feel it's important in terms much the listings? and money flows, investors? >> i would say this, the best news i can give you is on the deal flow, we actually have more ipos in the pipeline than we've had in the last ten years. pretty remarkable. when i saw that, i thought, that's surprising and good. obviously not all of those deals will get out. i can guarantee not all will get out. but still, to have that amount of companies built up is a very good thing. with respect to equity inflows, when you look at our business, we certainly see the natural buyers and sellers, those long only mutual funds, they really represent the best barometer of how our market will go. and that's a mixed message in terms of what it looks like today. so we believe that as we look at 2012, as i said, we're planning for relatively low volume environment. we will be happy to be wrong on

the upside. but at least we're protected on the downside. and we're miking our business plans based on those assumptions. >> i think if volume continues to go lower, as it has, you're going to have prop trading going away with the implementation of -- >> the volcker rule, right. >> you've got the high frequency trading is diminishing these days because volatility is coming down. i think you'll see more consolidation in the exchange business going forward here, despite what everybody is saying. >> you have to. because where does the growth come from. they have to get leaner and meaner. but you can't do huge deals, because the government won't allow it. >> we hit the critical mass here. too much deals means too much concentration and too much power in one place. got to have the competition. we're heading to the close here, about 35 minutes to go with the dow, up 108 points. >> checking media, viacom shares at a one-year high. we break down the charts. >> president obama has pitched a

new plan to let millions of homeowners refinance their mortgages. but can that ever get through congress? housing and urban secretary shaun donovan weighs in on that. coming up at 4:30 p.m. eastern time. >> let's check the dow with the index up 110 points. there's a look at the major stocks leading that rally. back in a moment. until the end of the quarter to think about your money... ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be. we know you'd like to see the same information your advisor does so you can get a deeper understanding of what's going on with your portfolio. we know all this because we asked you, and what we heard helped us create pnc wealth insight, a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement.

let's -- let's start over from the beginning. we were just driving along, comin' back from the lake, and all of a sudden, ka-plam. it blindsided us. what is it? our college savings account. how do you think it happened? not sure. i think something we bought a while ago turned out to be something else, annnnnd, i remember a lot of other stuff in there had the word "aggressive" in it. is everyone okay? well, now, yeah. who knows later. ♪

sharon epperson here at the nymex. natural gas is back near a ten-year low. natural gas prices falling toward the lows of the session. keep in mind, we have natural gas down over 5% right now. and we already have here in terms of natural gas supply in the u.s. about 25% more natural gas than we historically have this time of year. we'll get numbers coming out tomorrow morning from the energy department showing the weekly decline in natural gas supplies. it's expected to be far less than we normally see for this week of the year. we're looking at 1.23 to 1.27 bcs. keep in mind as we look at the fall in natural gas, a lot of traders are waiting to see if natural gas prices will approach last week's low, and very soon perhaps to the $2 level for natural gas. back to you guys. >> warm weather right now, i just now how karma works. we're going to pay for it

somewhere down the road. we'll have an april snowstorm or something, i'm sure. less than an hour of trade to go. traders watching shares of viacom, the media company reports its earnings tomorrow before the bell. making this year a chance to buy or sell that stock before we see the numbers. should you? what should you do with it right now? on the technical side, the founder of chart lab and fundamental side, it's dave. what is the chart telling you right now? >> talking before the earnings. if you look at viacom going back to august 2010, to may of last year, the stock went from 31 to 52. very low volatility. in the last nine months, very different story. extremely volatile. wide swings in the $15 range. in the last five weeks, the stock has traded between 48 and 45. at this point, on neutral in between those two areas, on a weekly close, friday close, i'll buy it on a close above 48, i'll

sell it on a close below 45. if you're long traders, stay long if it closes above 48. if it closes below 45, you have to sell it. >> dave, as for that, you wrote in your research note today, we believe ad growth underperformance is already reflected in current share price. investors will likely be focused on forward advertising commentary. what's your outlook for ad spending right now? >> we actually see, you know, pretty stable outlook for the national landmark right now on a year-over-year basis. growth itself is probably decelerating a couple hundred basis points. growth in an absolute sense is really growing quite nicely. in the cable area, probably 5% or 6%. >> do you like viacom at these levels then? >> well, for these guys, they are underperforming the ad market, because of ratings problems in nickelodeon. we view this stock as a can't-lose. because the reality is, even if they underperform on the

fundamentals, and there's a decent chance they could do that, the amount of buybacks that this company is doing, they're committed to buying back 25%, 30% of the stock over the next two to three years. that's doing two things, first, it's massively driving earnings per share, and the second is it's bringing in an entirely new class of buyers. >> all right. well, we'll know tomorrow morning when the earnings come out. greg, good to see you. dave, thank you for joining us today as well. >> coming up next, neil hennessey says there's a big buying opportunity in this market. but cries high esy says you need to take the risk off the table. as we take a break, look at some of the standouts today in the s&p 500. you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc.

hello. bob pisani down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. great start to the month. i want to talk about the volume. we've had broad participation,

5-1, advancing to the declining stocks, more stocks -- more volume going to the stocks on the up side than the down side. i love it when i see health care advancing along with industrials, along with raw materials, along with telecom. financials leading, that's great news as well. tech's also been strong throughout the day. get the point? broad participation. light on earnings today. get what's at a new historic high today? chipotle. what a monster. this was $125 a year and a half ago. it's going to have earnings after the close, we're expecting numbers that are, well, they've beaten earnings 11 out of the last 12 times. this is the big retail stock right now. >> forget technology, it's all about fast food. >> about time. what a monster. the market today off of the best levels of the session. what are we looking at, 104 on the upside. our guests have different views on this market right here. one says that he's removing equity risk from his portfolios.

the other says the market is undervalued and presents a huge opportunity. >> two smart men, two very different ideas. chris heisey, and neil hennessy. you like stocks right here. >> i have for a long time. if you look price to sale, price to book, or price to earnings or cash flow, it's undervalued. just to give you one piece of it, look at price of cash flow, that's what we live off of in the real world. if you look back, just to get back to the five-year, or ten-year average, that means the dow has to move somewhere between 4,000 and #,000 points on the upside. in the last five years, we've had three sort of difficult years to say the least. >> you're just waiting for that move to go higher here. >> does that change if greece defaults? does it change if something happens, like unnerving in europe? >> no. if you look at what corporations are doing now, the last time they had corporate profits this

high was 2006. they came in with $2 trillion of corporate taxes last year before tax. and greece is still going on for the last year. it's not going to change anything. >> sounds good to me. what am i missing here, chris? >> not a lot. i completely agree with the fundamental back drop, particularly the valuation argument. however, the discount of the political cloud, the discount of portugal, not just greece, the economic recession was a sharper than what current consensus is, filtering into a midterm slowdown. it's a discount on a multiple between 10% and 20%. completely agree. the political cloud has to go away, for the perception of that value to proceed like we want it to. >> what's the alternative? isn't that one of the issues? you look at the world today. is the u.s. the best house on the block relatively speaking? >> no question about it. you also have to have another barbell. you anchor yourself in dividend pay, or differevidend companies.

build around it with some of the good technology names as well as the emerging markets. >> that's what makes the market. thank you, gentlemen. good to see you both. see you later on the closing "countdown" coming up. the dow up 104 right now. >> lower health care use, can this trend help insurers like aetna. we'll get into health care. >> after the bell, we're looking how big the facebook ipo can be. whether the massive valuation is justified right now. >> facebook's revenue breakdown, as we await more info on the deal.

welcome back to "closing bell." i'm seema mody. let's check out some of the big movers. jumping in trade after confirming promising data on their cancer drug. medivation helping the stock reach a three-month high. it's also heating up with the

prostate drug on the market. they're moving higher because of a management change. the company is looking to increase patient volumes. guys, back over to you. >> seema, thank you very much. heading toward the close, 20 minutes left. time for a quick stat check on the nasdaq, which has been the leader today. the composite soaring to a six-month high. right now, a gain of 1.25%, or 34 points. it was up as many as 42 at the high of the session. technology has been the leader in this market once again. meanwhile, the fear indicator that the vix pulling back as stocks defy gravity. it's below 19 now, down almost 5%. off the lows of the session at 18.5 right now. maria? >> bill, let's take a look at aetna. profits jumping more than 70% in the fourth quarter. let's talk to aetna and how the company plans to stay ahead of the cur2012.

joining me now, the company's ceo. good to have you on the program. >> thank you, maria. >> what drove the quarter? >> strong quarter capping off the full year of a very strong 2011. and real solid momentum heading into 2012. >> where is the momentum coming from? what drove that? >> first, very good execution on our pricing. but probably more importantly, a very stable medical trend environment. actually, about as low as i've seen in my career. >> so stable medical environment, how do you ensure that continues? you've got to stay price competitive. some analysts are concerned that you're lacking the scale in regional markets to negotiate the best prices. >> you know, i think first of all, utilization can't stay as low as it is. i think it's driven in large part by the economy. so we have to be responsible in our pricing since we price about 18 months ahead. secondly, i don't think there are only going to be one or two

competitors in this industry over the long term. it's not being the biggest, it's really executing best against our plans. >> what kind of a 2012 are you expecting? >> we're expecting an eps of $5, around that $5 per share. and we're expecting to return to growth in the last three quarters of the year. >> you had told investors, i think it was at your investor meeting back in december, that you could increase revenue 5% year over year for the next several years. do you expect that trend to continue, and how do you keep that going? >> we keep it going, first, by growing in our mix in government businesses. the government sector grows, particularly medicare, that carries a higher revenue percentage with it and a higher growth rate. as we invest more in the government sector and commercial market will continue to grow in our opinion, we believe 5% year over year is a reasonable number. >> you saw enrollment and revenue higher, what do you need to do? >> i think we're coming out of repricing our book of business in 2009 when we had some trouble. so we shed some market share.

but we've gotten back into the market and we are where our competitors are so we can grow now. >> what is the impact of the health reform on your business? >> actually, reform has been pretty good for our business so far. i would argue that the minimum mmlrs that we've had to mark our prices to have created pretty good rate stability, and good pricing behavior in the marketplace. i think as we look forward, it really depends on where the supreme court comes down and how we handle deficit reduction as to whether or not this full bill will be implemented the way it was intended in 2010. >> one of the benefits, as you mentioned a moment ago, was the low number of claims. so what's behind that? are americans delaying doctor visits? what's going on? >> well, when we look at utilization trend, what we're seeing is that people are not going to the doctor as often and getting prescriptions as often. when we look at the underlying reasons for that, we do not see

underutilization in areas where we would expect to see good care. so we're not seeing underutilization of necessary care so far. so that may mean that americans are being more prudent about how they spend their dollars and not running off to the doctor to get a prescription every time they feel ill. >> thank you so much. we'll see you soon. >> thank you, maria. >> 15 minutes to go here. still 100-point gain. the nasdaq still leading the way. technology still the story right now. >> facebook part of that tech story. investors want to know what to expect ahead of the ipo filing. it could come at any time now. >> as wall street prepares for the most anticipated ipo of the year, cnbc takes you inside the true story of facebook with rare access to the man behind the social obsession. mark zuckerberg inside facebook airs tonight on cnbc 8:00 p.m. eastern time. >> let's look at how of the stock investments in facebook

are trading ahead of this ipo are trading ahead of this ipo environment.

welcome back. investors anxiously awaiting the ipo filing from facebook. it could happen any moment now. kayla joins us with the preview of the social media offering. >> maria, we're expecting it today, now that nearly an entire trading day has gone by, it is an any minute now scenario. they say the company will raise $5 billion, as investors show interest. we've learned allen and company will join the investment banks that are taking the social network public. mark zuckerberg attends the retreat in sun valley, idaho, every year. what the investors want most is growth. any inkling of strategy, where the company cease promise, and what started as a procrastination tool for college students has a platform that's set to grow profits. the filing could get pushed to tomorrow. today holds a special place in facebook's news. the company was founded by

zuckerberg in 2004 in a harvard dorm room, the second week in february on a wednesday afternoon. >> kayla, thank you very much. i'm here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. regaining some of the 3% decline we saw on heavy volume for archer-daniels-midland. it expects fundamentals to bottom out by march. they're raising their prices to $35 from $32, trading at $29 and change now. despite cutting its view on the earnings after disappointing results, they argue adm is still a good buy right now. contends management is taking a more disciplined approach to capital spending, which should yield greater returns. commodity prices going higher as well, that helps with the margins, too. >> absolutely. bill, thank you. we'll take a short break. we have the closing countdown right after this break.

facebook's upcoming ipo filing. another big name in technology is qualcomm. analysis of the numbers coming up in the program. if you take a break, take a look at the major averages trading.

welcome back. coming up on the six-minute mark here as we head to the close. what is it about the first trading day of the month. for the last five out of the six last six months now, the s&p has been either up or down 1% on that first trading day of the month. and it's happened again today for the most part. first day of the month. i don't know what that's about. in the meantime, the tech sector has now had its highest level since february of 2001. and that's one of the reasons they've got people asking whether or not this is a tech bubble that has been building in technology these days. the risk on trade really began overnight when we had the better than expected manufacturing data from china from europe this morning. the euro was higher, we thought we would get a greek restructuring deal sometime today. we were told it was only hours

away. so the euro strengthened this morning. but has since pulled back. now that we know it's going to be a matter of days before we get this greek restructuring deal. it was a strong day. when the euro goes higher, so does our market. there is the s&p. that 1% gain, again, that we've seen. now we're off those highs. we started drifting south during the rest of the day there. we had a 1% gain for the s&p, at least five out of last six months. for the s&p tech sector here, is it a coincidence that you see the most highly anticipated ipo from the tech sector in a long time, coming out just as this indicator is hitting a high. any moment we could get the ipo filing for facebook. if it's a risk on day, the risk off assets are going lower today. the ten-year yield bumped up a couple of notches.

the vix was moving lower today, down almost 5%. we're at the 18.56. by the way, speaking of the vix, maybe your obsession with volatility, an espionage thriller called "the fear index," i'm wondering what's next. an espionage thriller. that book just out right now. let's look at the sectors and how they performed. i'm going to bring chris heisey in on this. the financials in the materials and technology that are leading the way as they have for much of 2012 at this point, when you look at the bottom five, the laggards, it's last year's leaders, the utilities and discretionaries. are there opportunities in any of those sectors that you see as a result right now? >> no question about it. in february, we're going to have ltro 2, more liquidity in the

market. more liquidity, more liquidity, more liquidity. materials, technology, financials and some of the more inflationary sectors should continue to have the wind at their back. where we take risk off, the ones that did really well last year. the high dividend companies within the utility sector, it's time to take some profits there. it doesn't mean they'll not do well this year. in the face of all the things we see hitting in the summer, you've got to rebalance the portfolio, pay to wait, like we talked about, but take advantage of the things we just mentioned. >> it became a crowded trade and became more nuanced as we got to the end of last year where people were looking for dividend growth stocks, not just those that paid a high dividend, right? >> one of the other characteristics than dividend growth that drove the companies higher, is exposure to emerging european markets. that's the characteristic that will win out through the entire

repair process. >> are we past the worst in europe right now? if we can get a decent restructuring deal on greek? >> no, this is a long workout. this is the liquidity phase of a long workout. there's massive restructuring that needs to happen. the most difficult thing to gauge right now is how much the austerity will take off of long-term growth. as an investor, that's what you should care about most. >> with facebook coming out, is technology a bubble right now do you think? >> outside of real estate, what was the last bubble we had? technology. how long ago? 12-some-odd years ago. it's not in a bubble right now. >> good to see you, chris heisey. bob pisani, as we head to the close now, i would think they would wait for after the bell to ring to bring out the ipo on facebook. >> i would hope that is today. we need more information. we're tired of talking in a vacuum. let's get some facts here. yeah, i think so.

and by the way, where's the valley here? we were up 150 points earlier in the day. we're now half of that. it's a good start to the month. i'm not complaining overall. this is the halfway point. s&p, 50% of the companies have reported. 57% have beat expectations. a little lower than we've been seeing. we're averaging 65, 66 in the last several quarters. i think some of the numbers might have to come down a little bit. we'll get some other earnings after the close. i mentioned chipotle earlier. another historic high. >> mcdonald's and chipotle have been the two highest in the last year. >> one is very mature, but still growing company. the other one is faster growing. chipotle will probably have 10% increase. >> thank you, bob. i know you'll stick around to get ready for the second hour of "closing bell."