back in december. people are expecting a little bit of a giveback this time around. analysts are warning that seasonal factors that drove up december numbers may impact january's report. there were seasonal workers added before the holidays who were likely lost in january so, again, this time around people are expecting a giveback, 125,000 is the official number. 8.5% unemployment rate. small business hiring was flat last month. the survey found an increase in the percentage of owners reporting hard to fill job openings to the highest level in more than three years. >> a quick check on the markets ahead of the jobs report this morning. we had a choppy day yesterday. ended up not so bad in the end but you didn't know it throughout the day, the dow jones -- >> down 11 points on the day. >> would open up now 35 points higher. the nasdaq would open up about 7 1/2 points higher. let's take a look at oil.

where is oil right now? >> we've seen lower oil prices ever since we got those higher inventories, higher than expected supplies. it's been driving down prices and right now you can see where it is. >> oil is tough because you know i don't drive except when i'm on ice. so this is very difficult. >> gasoline prices haven't really gone up. it would be bad for a lot of different reasons if it did especially for -- >> consumers especially. >> for consumers, for gdp, for the re-election. nobody needs that. >> how high can it go -- >> it should be at $4 at $100 but it's not. >> do you understand why it isn't, though, because i don't? >> you saw all the majors, their downstream operations were not that great because that's where they would get the bump if they were able to charge if the crack spread widens. with natural gas, not all energy is fungible but if you convert it into what it costs to power a

certain amount, $2 natural gas does not make sense. it's never been $100 oil and $2 natural gas. and if you're going to keep finding natural gas, i still think sooner or later -- >> we had boone pickens on. talking about convert iing somef their big trucks to natural gas. >> the more that happens, $100 is too high. >> but then again if the price keeps coming down it makes it and the economics of natural gas -- >> with the shale and all of that, we have a lot of it. what is that? israel -- did you see this israel story? >> this is the big story this morning. i don't know if we'll be talking about it a little bit later but leon panetta now warning that there could be a strike, that israel could try to strike iran later this year. >> well, there is that story in "the new york times" magazine over the weekend, too, that laid it out that basically said they are really looking and thinking

this could be our last time. it has to happen before july. >> where do you see these al qaeda guys. >> they call it an immunity period. >> i didn't see immunity period. >> these al qaeda guys are under house arrest. go ahead. go knock yourself out. iran is not our friends. >> a look at the ten-year t-bill. >> go for it. >> just for a second. it depends if if somebody wants to bring it up. there it is. the yield coming down again. what are we going to do about this? >> i don't know. >> let's look at the dollar real quick. maybe. there it is. 're going straight to the next story. the senate approving a measure to scale back million dollar bonuses for fannie mae and freddie mac executives. the provision was attached to a broader bill that prohibits members of congress from trading stocks using inside information. of course we talked about that

the other day. the fed's balance sheet growing a little bit in the latest weak, the central bank continuing to adjust its portfolio and spur the economy. the fed's portfolio has more than doubled since the financial crisis. i don't know if you saw ben bernanke speak yesterday. it was pretty interesting. >> i know paul ryan, that people were raving about his questions including liesman and others. i happened to tune in just for a little of wasserman schultz. isn't she dnc chair and -- it's weird that she can be dnc and that she can be -- >> sitting in congress. >> sitting in congress. it was one absolutely loaded partisan question after the other and bernanke is just like -- >> i saw those questions. >> did you? >> and i saw the answers. >> but bernanke was trying to walk the line of not taking either side but it is just bly tantly confirmed the stimulus work, confirmed that if you cut taxeses they don't pay for themselves. >> by the way, hold on.

>> will you cop firm this? will you confirm that? she used every minute of her time. >> if you indulge me, though, i thought on the tax point it was very interesting and he agreed with her. >> on which point? >> that the -- no one said if you cut taxes every dollar that did comes back in growth. >> the argument has been not only do you get it back in spades -- >> no, no, no. >> you become more competitive. you grow the pie. that's the argument. >> she said is it the least effective -- >> i'm not saying it's my argument. >> no one really ever says that every dime that you cut comes back. then we'd have zero and 100% revenue. >> although there are people who say the lower you can cut it, the more it comes back. that is the argument. >> not dollar for dollar. there are people who say -- >> if you combine it with other -- >> with other what is it. >> other friendly -- business friendly initiatives. >> what would be -- >> less regulation. >> so you lower the taxes, you don't get back dollar for dollar but lower more regulations you

get a couple more dollars and finally get back to 100%? this gets tough. >> you may get it back. then we should have 100% and just pay for everything. >> i'm not arguing that either. you have to figure out funding the costs of the government. the question and bernanke said it, you have to decide on what you want the government to do. what the role needs to be in free society. >> it if you bring in 18% in revenue and gdp then you can pay out 22%. you do get the growth. >> you are not going to get much above 18. above 25 is what everyone keeps saying. i have to talk about a probe, a swiss probe. i'm not sure what that is. oh, it's happening in

switzerland. i thought it was at the doctor's office. it's not. i thought it might be a technique. switzerland is investigating a dozen u.s., european and japanese banks. the firms that are in question are suspected of conspiring to manipulate rates. authorities say they've received information of possible collusion between derivative traders including libor and the tokyo rate. i've been noticing that. did you know that's what it was? >> no. >> they are used to set interest rates on hundreds of trillions of dollars of securities. u.s., eu, and british probes are already under way. and in greece, wage cuts in the private sector. the decision comes despite austerity during negotiations from massive new debt relief deals. i was irritated that if she can get bernanke to say something -- no, if she can, then that's

suddenly you have to make moses tablets. he has said this and it's true. >> it happens with all politics. >> he's pursuing you. >> at the same time he's pursuing policies i would definitely say are not cast in stone. the i appreciate but i'm not closing the book on what's true or not based on what bernanke feels. >> he is subject to political persuasion. >> when he makes a proclamation, you do think he is hopefully coming to it from a nonecological place. >> he's tried to stay out of the political -- >> i think he has done a bet joesh in the middle. >> you don't think he's a little -- >> i'm sure he is in real life. he drinks too much pinot noir.

>> i've seen him take a bucket of wine. he's a lush. >> you don't think he was acting. that's all i know about him. have you seen him do that in real life? >> i have not. >> maybe he was acting. >> i think he was. he's a very good actor. how about gingrich when trump was going to endorse him it was the biggest thing in the world and he goes, why -- >> who cares? >> i love that. >> do you understand what happened is this. >> no. >> we're talking about the endorsement, donald trump's endorsement that it was going to be of gingrich but he endorsed mitt romney. >> did trump play both sides? did he indicate to gingrich? >> did he? >> it would have made it more interesting. >> the story is there were leaks coming out of the gingrich campaign that trump was going to endorse him.

>> do you think -- >> his campaign believed he was going to endorse them. >> maybe the donald gave him the idea. did it not -- >> it made it a more interesting day. >> exactly. >> well, maybe he'll call us. >> if you're watching. >> back to some of the growth stories in the eurozone the private secotor economy snappin a four-month decline expanding slightly in january. ross westgate is standing by. >> becky, good morning to you. we're out near the best levels of the day here in europe ahead of the employment report. advancers just getting the best of it outpacing decliners here by nearly 7-3. it was a pretty mixed flat close yesterday. so here we are three hours into the trading session. up nearly half a percent at the moment. fairly slim gains. the xetra dax up a third.

the ftse mib up 0.4%. you mentioned the eurozone. we already had an indication of them the week before. perhaps the standout number really was what we got out of the uk in terms of its services pmi. we will that negative gdp in the fourth quarter so this pmi number along with manufacturing suggests the uk may be able to avoid an official recession. it also puts into doubt somewhat or makes it a harder decision on whether the bank of england will extend its quantitative easing program. they meet next thursday to decide on that. the other key thing is ten-year btp. the yield today below 5.6%. below 5% on spanish government debt. these yields have continued to fall continuously over the last week and a half so that has been the real benefit of the ltro and

suggests stress in europe has declined by these yields. remember, it's the end of the month we get the next second part of the ltro. euro/dollar is ticking high. currently 1.3174. that's where we stand. we now wait for you and the jobs number. >> we have that number coming up in about two hours and 13 minutes. in some of our other headlines a wisconsin woman charged with theft over accusations that she tried to sell fake facebook stock. a criminal complaint says the woman told acquaintances she obtained a million dollars in stock because her daughter knew facebook's founder. she persuaded people to buy fictitious stock over a four hadn't month period. that woman has been charged with 31 counts of theft, forgery and misleading statements. >> did you hear your freudian slip? fake book stock.

>> did i? well, it was. >> my wife's car has so much trash it's carba fw e. that should be in and we have to get -- there's a lot of it around. >> is it dirty in there? >> if you have kids in your car, it's a disaster. >> lollipops that might be sticking in the cup holder, just stuff like that. >> left over water bottles. geeves, you have no idea. you have someone -- give it to someone who cleans up a lot of things after you. i'm sure your life is like that. >> in other facebook news this morning -- >> are you east side or west side? >> upper west side. >> never mind. >> like 16 million people. no one is going to find you. what would they want? a new survey says there is no facebook fatigue. we are talking about the facebook ipo. fake book, there's no fake book fatigue. the poll sheds light on

facebook's long-term possible late which has been a concern among investors looking at the ipo. they find that the longer people have actually used facebook more frequently they hit the like button, comment on dprendz' comment, post status updates and tag friends in photos. if you thought it was getting old, i think we have to think again. >> what do you think about that? >> what is becky looking at now? >> why you should not have the family bed -- all these pictures of what the kids do to you. i'll show you later. it's an issue in our house at this point. >> carbage. >> i don't even know what's going on anymore. >> anymore? >> i'll tell you what's going on anymore, today is a huge day. we do have that jobs report t. could be a game changer today. that's the number the street is waiting for. we did get the adp report on wednesday and it showed it was right in line with expectations. today expectations are for a gain of 125,000 so we'll see what happens, 2:15.

>> i mean, left to your devices we would be talking about the yen still right now. we would be on the yen board. and then later he is the man hyped some of your favorite super bowl commercials so what does mcd -- another freudian slip, miles nadall think of this year's lineup? we're also going to find out what it tells about the overall economy. he is an advertising all star and he's our guest host today starting at 6:30 eastern time. first, though, as we head to a break, the global market headlines.

welcome back to "squawk box" on this friday ahead of the super bowl. equity futures at this hour, you can see right there looking slightly up. the dow jones would open up 41 points higher. the nasdaq would open up a little over eight points higher. digital river reporting a quarterly profit that beat wall street estimates. the e-commerce service provider forecast a strong 2012. shares rising in after hours.

and wynn resorts, improvement in revenue in las vegas and macao property. down in after hours trading because of an ongoing dispute between wynn and its largest shareholder as well as a slowdown in macao. to the weekend forecast, it was cold this morning. and scott williams of the weather channel joins us. it was like 33 degrees and i was like, what's happening? we got spoiled in the last week, i think, scott. >> yeah, well, joe, the average high this time of year for new york city is 39 degrees. we're still going to be above average. so the ground hog saw a shadow yesterday and it looks like he was probably wrong because look for high pressure today. temperatures in new york city right around 46 degrees. a lot of sunshine both today and tomorrow. 46 degrees in new york city.

that high pressure will stay in control through the balance of the weekend. a little cooler for your sunday, 43 degrees. speaking of sunday, we've got to take you to indianapolis, super bowl xlvi giants versus patriots. we were looking at some clouds in the forecast and the threat for rain is backing off right now still about a 20% chance for some showers. temperatures will top out in the upper 40s. rain or shine it doesn't matter because lucas oil stadium has a roof. of course we'll look at major airport delays in denver as we track over a foot of snow in the offing later today. guys, back to you. >> all right. we'll be watching. scott, thank you. we'll see you again soon. right now back to today's top story, the jobs report. investors are hoping that yesterday's better than expected claims numbers will set the pace for today's release but is that the case? joining us with a preview is michelle garrard and, michelle, what are you looking for in your

numbers? >> we're a little on the softer side. we only have a gain of 95,000 in the headline print. i'm pretty far below the consensus. a couple of things. i think the underlying numbers will look better. we've been talking about the fact there was a big boost to employment in december because of couriers, u.p.s. hiring people to deliver the goods everyone ordered on line. we saw the same thing last year. i think that may play out again. underlying dat at that, the trend is probably not a whole lot different. we average the two months together, probably payroll growth of 160,000. it's not great but it's certainly an improvement. >> the big question becomes what happens with the up employment rate. that's the number main street sees and thinks this is a good indication of what's happening. what we can tell from the participation rate it's well below. if people come back into the workforce, that can throw that number off. >> exactly the issue. we have a couple moving parts. of course the number of people

looking for work but if the labor force increases because people get more optimistic about finding a job that works against the unemployment rate coming down and then the other issue this month where we have new population controls. there will be a lot of noise in the data. we have revisions going back three years. so there's going to be a lot to digest. i think the unemployment rate has moved down a lot. it's come down half a percentage point. i think it's sort of probably can't continue with that rapid of a pace. i think we've turned and we will see unemployment fall this year. >> if the participation rate was at its normal level, that you'd be looking at an unemployment rate. >> well, that is true. the labor force participation rate has come down and one of the things that is a question mark, will it go back up as the economy improves or is there something more structural going on that the people who have left the labor force will not be coming back in as the economy

improves. this is a big question, as you said, it has a lot to do with what the unemployment rate does as the economy continues to strengthen. >> what do you expect on an hour's work? >> i think it will be flat this month. we've definitely seen the hours numbers pick up. a big part of this recovery from the recession now rather than employment has been the fact that ours are rebounding. >> the longer term story is one the market will follow eventually but today a knee jerk reaction based on this number. how do you think the market is primed for this? there has been this idea this is going to be a weaker number so what will the market react to in terms if it comes in around, let's say, 100,000? >> i'm right there with michelle. under the average estimate. the market has probably priced that in. we'll have to see the details. they may look more at the employment rate, the unemployment rate, simply because it will tell a new story as michelle said because of the

population control changes. one of the other things about the unemployment rate or the opposite side of that coin is the employment rate and although it has fallen quite a bit, the employment rate, the employ the population ratio is only 0.3% off the low. and the participation rate, it's the wrong people that are participating. it should be people -- you know, the 55 and older you would think would start to be retiring but they're participating in the labor force at a rate we haven't seen in 40 to 50 years. >> they don't have much choice. >> exactly right. and there's no confidence of losing your job and not getting the health insurance. on the other side of the coin the participation rate has never been as low since they've been covering this as it is now. so not only is the participation rate low but the mix is not very good. >> so the market is primed for a weak number, probably something between $100 to $150. if for some reason you get a

number that pops out higher than that, is the market going to rally coming into that or look at it and say this is just a one off? >> oh, i think the initial reaction and you never know what will happen the rest of the day, if it's a stronger than expected payroll number i think will be positive because i think the market is reacting more to the better economic data. that's part of the story since the lows in october for the stock market is that the economic data has been relatively better on the whole. >> if we get between one and 150 it's not a huge surprise to the market, it doesn't mean the market will trade down? >> you need to be outside of that range significantly. again, over 200 or pretty significantly below 100 in order to get a massive reaction either way. >> the data has been improving and even the claims numbers that you referenced earlier have moved below the 400,000 mark. i do think there is a sense that away from what the month to month numbers show that we are moving toward a better labor

market. >> just a question -- >> how quickly, exactly. >> michelle, thank you for coming in the studio. lou, it's great to see you. >> thank you. our guest host is a super draw. he runs one of the largest marketing agencies in the world so he's busy making ads for sunday's game and he specializes in social media so he knows a thing or two about-face book. we'll get the play-by-play on all of it from miles nadall n t next. that was wonderful. >> bravo. >> well, it was pretty good. >> well, it wasn't bad. >> there were parts that weren't very good. >> it could have been better. >> i didn't really like it. >> it was terrible. >> it was bad. >> it was awful. my job is to find the next big sound.

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. it is 6:30 on the east coast. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. making headlines this morning, toyota says it expects group wide global sales to climb 21% this year. probably low numbers make it easy to do 21. the automaker is recovering from supply chain disruptions after last year's earthquake in in

japan and flooding in thailand. and the january jobs report is now less than two hours away. economists in a poll by dow jones are looking for 125,000 nonfarm payrolls. you heard michelle girard talk about softness. >> she said under 100 and lou brien said 100. >> i've seen 145. >> reuters consensus is 150,000 new jobs. we'll see. >> this is against last month's number of a surprise gain and revisions that we watched on all of these. the market, though, as we head into this number is showing strength. the dow futures are up by 38 points after giving back just 11 points yesterday. the s&p is up by over 3 1/2 points and the ten-year note is still at these incredibly low yields. right now the ten year is yielding 1.28%. we had it testimony from ben bernanke on capitol hill yesterday and that didn't do

anything really. >> everybody knows about advertising the super bowl. it's a boone week. on wednesday we had facebook, known as the world's largest billboard announced its ipo and then on sunday we have the patriots and the giants and we always have this two-week period. if you are in the sports business, you start to wonder what can i do again? today it's all madonna everywhere. yesterday giselle provided the fodder saying please pray for tom. he needs confidence. he's a pretty confident guy. he's already won three. our guest host is miles nadal, now how many ads do you have in the super bowl? >> we have seven in the super bowl. we have two just before the super bowl so nine, which is double last year. and actually we have two 60-second spots and a 90-second spot and eight advertisers which is really double what last year

was. >> is this a quiet period for you? how much can you tell us? >> they don't tell me a lot and i sort of don't want to know a lot. >> you're in for over $30 million then easy. >> yes. well, the average spot -- so last year was $3 million. average spot is $3.5 million. price increases between 16% and 26%. >> if you're in the front or back of the game aren't you at $4 million? >> depend iing on where you are upwards of $4 million. the interesting thing, 110 million people watched last year. they think it could be 130 million people, the most watched tv show in american history. >> is the increase in the advertising price as reflection of a strong advertising market or this is the one place you can go to aggregate so many? >> i think both. i think it is a reflection of two things. ad market is strong. i think the up fronts are

expected to increase 8%. we're finding our clients are spending more money. in order to increase market share they feel that confident to be able to increase. the other thing that's happened is super bowl was just about the advertising on the game. now you have so much interaction to expand the reach and the importance of it. so you have social media before, during, and after. so the actual tv spots themselves are only a small part of the integrated campaigns for most organizations. >> would it not be quite as lucrative this time? >> you couldn't have a better situation, right, you have new york and boston. >> you buy the ads before you know who is in it or no? >> yes, but you can increase as you go along. last year they had 63 separate spots. i think 39 minutes of advertising.

it was reported this morning there's at least 50 advertisers. automotive, 11 automotive companies represent 20 spots already. >> that's why there were so many problems in 2009 after the collapse. >> if ratings are higher than people thought, do the advertisers owe more? >> no, it's fixed. >> and this year nbc will be streaming the super bowl online as well. does that include advertising and are those ads to you as valuable and any social component there? >> you're asking me a lot of questions. so i don't know all the answers but the streaming activity will have the ads. the social media side -- like we have a lot of activity on facebook. and a lot of gaming activity. a lot of experience leading up to, during, and after the game as well. so it's become really an opportunity to bring a lot of awareness and brand excitement

for clients and the other thing is if you tie it together with online activity that leads people to go to dealerships, retailers, participate, i think you see a significant increase. neal seven said that the awareness and penetration of super bowl advertising is 59% higher than sort of prime time advertising on television. so it works. and you tie it all together with social media, you're really leading what marketers are looking for to get more people to come and make more purchases more frequently. >> i wonder if you could measure ads fast forwarded through on the super bowl regular than a prime time night, probably 59%. that doesn't surprise me that it's 59%. no one tivos the ads, people watch them. >> they watch them live. >> not because you're watching

live, not only, but because they're new ads and people part of watching -- see -- >> i agree with you. >> you have seen the super bowl, right? >> yes. >> are you going to watch this year? >> i'm going to wear my giants hat and i'm going to watch it. >> okay 0, good. i'll be 3:30 out on the west coast so i'm really excited because i get to stay up for the whole thing and not worry about it. people watch all those ridiculous -- some people watch the super bowl -- >> just for the advertisements. >> more so than the game itself. >> you hit a really important point. mass audienceses are very aware of super bowl advertising. it is a form of entertainment for people. because some of the greatest advertising -- iconic advertising in the history of advertising has been done through super bowl. >> and some of the bombs. one ridiculous ad, it was an auto ad, the assembly line, a

big tool and it made a mistake and committed suicide or something. >> oh, that's right. was that last year or the year before? >> it was one of our former colleagues, his agency, did it. it was such a -- just an you awful -- who came up with that? we won't mention any names. >> the other thing is the media plays it up in a very big way so people get to vote for the most favorite ad and they get to vote for 0 the first ad and it goes on before and after for long periods of time. so it really is a big form of entertainment for people. >> well, we are all for this really expensive nbc, the parent of this network -- >> if you can buy a couple more ads, we would love that. >> we are their agency so we're proud. >> nbc? >> yes. >> comcast, nbc, universal? >> yes. >> this is good to know. we are privileged by your association. >> i am glad you disclosed that. >> it had nothing to do with me. >> miles is sticking around.

let's talk about the game for one second. >> can we do that after the break? >> sure. i want to find out what your favorite ads are to look for coming up. >> oh. >> tease us with what we need to be paying attention to. >> i have not seen any of them actually. >> well then, you'll have to make it up. >> we want people to keep watching after the break. comments, questions, anything you see here on "squawk. " quarterback the jobs report. investors digging at the line of scrimmage a futures trader calls the passing route ahead of the 8:30 a.m. employment release up next and then later americans knock back 166 million pounds, are you ready for this, of snack foods around the super bowl and chips and dip are in more than half billion dollar industry on that day alone. we're going to talk business with frito lay queen of corn.

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welcome back. the u.s. equity futures are showing some positive numbers ahead of the jobs report. right now the dow futures up by about 35 points. the our headlines on this friday morning, greece now says that its 2011 budget deficit will be smaller than expected between 9.1% gdp. athens is crediting an emergency property tax. apparently a tax they're actually collecting. and the development could help greece in its bailout talks with the eu and the imf. andrew? >> the trading pit in chicago buzzing about today's january jobs report. we are joined at the cmc.

what is your number and i'm curious actually going into the number last night how did you position yourself? >> andrew, the most important part of this number he especial after the release last week so we know the fed is in extended hold so we will be watching the average hourly earnings especially after we saw the personal consumption and savings investment numbers -- i should say income numbers. so if average hourly earnings grows, 0.2%. if that's higher than expected a positive for the equity markets. the effect on the debt market is minimal. again, the fed -- i have to agree with paul ryan's questioning of bernanke yesterday. the bond market is an indicator broken as long as the fed is so actively involved in the market. the bond market will give a case to how badly broken the bond

market is an indicator of performance. >> ira, thank you for your perspective. quick final question. who are you rooting for this weekend? >> well, i'm going to be in new york sunday so i'd better root for the giants but my heart will be with tom brady. >> i don't know how you say these things. >> have a great weekend. >> don't have too good of a weekend, though. >> what does that mean your heart will be with tom brady? >> do you have a thing? >> what does that mean? >> joe, i think tom brady, eli manning is a good quarterback. >> you think he's a hunk or something? just say what you mean. there's nothing wrong with that. just tell us. >> joe, i'm an old high school quarterback myself. >> are you? >> yes, i am. i find some great -- some camaraderie, watching great artists perform. >> he has a cleft. i look at him. i melt, so do you.

>> you're not walking me down that road. >> coming up, one of our favorite annual events when darren is in the locker room and asks him not everyone watches business news all the time. some interesting answers. did you do that again? you don't want to make these guys look stupid. [ no audio ] >> i hope we have the mike by the time we get back and we'll check his mike. hopefully it will work.

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it's quickly become a cnbc tradition and fan favorite. i justñr said it, darren, it is joins us with the sixth annual quiz of super bowl athletes. you didn't ask about plays and predictions. you want to see their financial iq which we don't expect any person to be great but these guys are hilarious. >> reporter: sorry about the mike trouble. i think one of the players tried

to turn it off, they didn't want to you see this. every year i go up to them, they cringe a little bit but i think some of them were ready and some weren't for my sixth annual financial quiz. what does rim make? >> who? >> reporter: rim. >> rifles? >> reporter: spell kardashian. >> ahh, kardashian. i'll pass. >> i-d-i-o-t. >> oh! >> reporter: what continent uses the euro for its currency? >>out africa. >> reporter: sees i couldnrious. >> it's just a guess. >> reporter: guess.

>> europa. >> reporter: how many chicken wings on a chicken? >> ten. >> you're good. what percentage of the population will not be watching you on sunday? >> maybe two. >> reporter: two%. higher. >> eight. >> reporter: higher. >> ten. >> reporter: higher. >> 20? >> reporter: higher. >> reporter: 4higher, 60% of america does not watch the super bowl. >> sorry for them. >> reporter: who is andrew ross sorkin? >> never heard of him. >> no idea. >> reporter: do you know who andrew ross sorkin is. >> no. >> reporter: never heard of him. >> suicide doctor? >> the governor of africa in. >> scientist. >> reporter: the scientist.

>> doesn't he host "squawk box"? >> good! >> reporter: of course i fed him that answer. >> oh. >> reporter: that was danny woodhead. i was going to say before i gave it away he really appreciates your fair value, sorkin's fair value so he can better understand it. >> makes it easier for those guys. >> makes it easy for me. >> reporter: in full disclosure here i did ask all the patriots, i held up a picture of in amitt romney and obviously the patriots should know him and almost all of them did. i didn't include some answers so good that they actually got them. i have a couple of notes, watching the get-in price is around $2,000. we'll see, today is moving day. $4,000 if you want a good seat and john parry is the head referee of the game.

his side job, because these res all have other jobs, he's associate financial adviser at ameriprise in ohio. i asked the nfl if he'd come on for an interview and they said no. >> do you know what libor stands for? >> reporter: oh, oh -- >> how about cds. how's that feel? feel pretty good. >> reporter: no, i'm the sports guy. i shouldn't know. i do know eebitda. >> what's ebitda? >> reporter: earnings before interest tax depreciation amortization. >> yes! >> yes, very good! >> how about revpar or the crack

spread. >> i like a good crack spread. >> down boy. >> revpar was revenue per available room. not a great one, no couch and not really an ocean view. revenue per average room, doesn't take into account suites or -- >> reporter: i actually prefer rack rate. >> oh. >> okay. if you want to take it there. >> reporter: on the hotel room. >> you want to take it there, okay, fine. we're leaving. we'll take a break. we do love that segment, though, darren. >> we do. >> did you do some giants, too or was it mostly pats? >> reporter: i did do some giants. i spent a long time trying to get victor cruz but i couldn't get him. the giants were a little bit more sleepy which i would be concerned about, from a game

standpoint. >> don't mess with victor cruz, please, leave him alone. he is key. >> reporter: i did say, because he just signed with ing for endorsement opportunities and i did say are you going to do a salsa deal, salsa in the can or salsa as far as dancing is concerned, and i said isn't that chile? >> move over al michaels and chris hollingsworth, the countdown to kickoff is next. and salty snacks, we'll talk to frito lay about business and what it talks about the state of the u.s. consumers. "squawk box" will be right back.

so -- tell me again what happened. i was downstairs making coffee, and we heard it. it just came crashing through the roof, out of nowhere. what is it? it's our ira. any idea what coulda caused this? maybe. i just sorta threw a little money here, a little money there. and i loaded up on something my dentist told me was hot. yeah. ♪

the countdown to the january jobs kickoff is on. >> three, two, one! yeah! >> the game plan and predictions are just ahead. >> a gridiron great shoots for number one. bob kraft talks about this squeak understand's game. >> how frito lay is looking to capture the consumer. >> what's one gary? every time he craves for rfor re toes he turns into a bird. >> the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joins us is miles nadal, more in a moment. our top story is the january jobs report. economists polled by dow jones say about 125,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in the last month. the reuters consensus is looking for 150,000 new jobs but both numbers are down from the 200,000 that we saw in december. analysts warn the seasonal factors that drove up december's number may impact december's report. hiring by small business was flat in january. the survey did show an increase in the number of job openings that small business owners characterize as hard to fill jobs. also japan's panasonic is forecasting a record loss of more than $10 billion, rivals sony and sharp as the late toast

forecast a sizeable loss. the futures ahead of the jobs report or at this point indicating a higher open. the dow futures up by 30 points, s&p up by three. >> european averages touching fresh six-month highs, sentiment helped by economic data helping from the uk and eurozone. here's a look at the euro as the investors await the outcome of greece and its private debtholders. last friday we were saying a deal was supposed to be reached last weekend. the question is of course will a new deal be reached this weekend. we've been talking about betting on the super bowl but i'm betting against a deal being reached right now. >> why do you always do that? >> every week we say it's going to happen and every week it doesn't happen. >> let's be positive. it's super bowl weekend. let's pull for europe. >> i was so positive last friday. i was in europe, i was with

them. they really make you feel like it's going to hope. >> i warned you. >> you go on tv say it's going to happen. >> greece is looking for slightly better gdp growth because of or slightly better tax collection because of a new tax that came in. sounds like it could be positive. >> we all believe it will happen. the question is when. >> expert can kickers. sooner or later they'll finally get to the can an close the jagged -- >> you truly believe it? i believe it but i don't think when. you don't think it's too late, portugal and -- >> it can be cured by printing. >> but if greece says forget it and they print their own money. >> the danger is leaving the euro. >> don't worry on super bowl weekend. >> i'll get it out of my head. >> big question in addition to this everyone is asking from economists to politicians that is the decline in the employment rate, is it for real or is it just the statistical illusion

that has to do with the participation rate? here to shed light is the master of statistical illusions himself, there's only one of them today but it's done three people, did you that better than the winkekvosses, that was one factor. you can't comb your hair differently. >> but i was able to use the purpose the shirt and the bow tie. >> you didn't know the answer on tuesday. >> no, i've been working on this one for a week and i thank neil of credit suisse and drew. is this unemployment decline for real? we look at the chart, ramp up here, peaked out 10% in 2009 and a pretty nice comedown there, about 1.5, but overlay the next line the participation rate. the people involved in the workforce say they're available to work, that's come down so is

all of this decline a result of this? here's what i want to do, separate this into two pieces, look at this piece before and look at the next six months. take a look, you've had a decline in unemployment rate from the peak of june of 1.9%. down 1.6%. bottom line on the chart very simple. up until about june it looks like we can say the decline of the unemployment rate was the result of people dropping out of the workforce, look at the decline in the past six months, down about a full point and no change in the participation rate. bottom line there, the last six months look like they've been real. before this, a part of people dropping out of the workforce. take a step back from the recent stuff. the participation rate decline, that's this chart over here has been a long-term trend for a lot of reasons, aging of the population, younger folks are staying in school longer and stay there, zoom in the middle

of the chart. the green line is job growth. even with strong job growth in the middle part of the last decade you didn't much in the participation rate. blue line from the '01 we session, one we went down we never came back. huge decline here, a cyclical factor but i also at aging of the population. get to the next. look at the participation rate by age. 64% overall and coming down. 82% for those between 25 and 54, 41% 55 and older. we have 10 million people who went over the last six years from 2006 to 2011 into this category. here's what's interesting. the people in this category are actually, that participation rate is rising but they're a huge cohort of people coming into an age group with much lower participation rates. what's the bottom line here? a couple factors.

aging explains maybe about half of the decline in the participation rate plus other structural factors out there. the participation rate in turn explains much of the fall in the unemployment rate since the peak through about june but the past six months looks like it's been somewhat for real and guys, this is not something that's going away. aging of the population, women not coming into the workforce in the same numbers, what's happening with younger people, huge structural issues in the economy, along with a lot of cyclical issues and things we have to think about as an economy, because as these older people leave the workforce, the productivity of the workforce declines, potential gdp also comes down. these are big ushissues long-te for the country. >> nice job. making me think this morning. we bring in market experts, ed keon, manager for quantitative management associates at prudential financial and richard bernstein of bernstein advisers.

richard, since you're with me i'll start with you. >> sure. >> you look at that report. >> um-hum. >> we have 830 coming up, i don't know where you are on the jobs number and you say maybe we're too invested in the market right now? >> well, andrew, from our point of view, i think people get too caught up in some of the deta details, with all due respect to steve whose job is to get caught up in the details. we have vagaries, something that influences the unemployment rate in every cycle. people want to poo-poo the data, say it's not getting better or in some indications worse. the corporate profits which are extremely important is showing the first chink in the armor, the first quarter, one who has been bullish for the past couple of years the corporate profits are starting to show weakness and that's the most important thing people should be looking at right now. >> wow. i don't see it.

when we talked to ceos, s&p 500 earnings are expected to be $105, trading $13.25, average has been 15 times over a 25-year period last time but when the long was 1665, s&p earns were 15, now 1.82% on the bond and less than 13 times. when i talk to clients and ceos, i say two things, first of all there is pent up demand for employment. the executive firms are busier than they've been before. >> um-hum. >> when i look at the prospects for our clients, and all corporations, who have 50% to 70% of their bigs eusiness expoo the emerging markets they're bullish on their business. >> that's where the weakness is because the dollar is starting to hurt, it's starting to hurt non-u.s. earnings now. >> you're talking about translation issues. >> steve --

>> when the dollar is weak companies say our strategy was perfect. when the dollar gets strong they say it's currency. >> steve, jump into the conversation. >> i want to ask rich a question. we had a bump up in income in the last month, went up 0.5%, an increase in job growth, what i said about the unemployment participation rate has nothing to do with jobs create, that's a separate survey. >> that's correct. wouldn't it be i don't want to say i good thing but not a bad thing if profits came down and the result was more people working and higher wages? >> steve, that's the critical point. what may be happening here is that we've had this huge rebound disproportionate rebound, if you're an occupier disproportionate rebound in corporate profits, about the largest percent of national income ever in u.s. history. so as that begins to shift back towards the household sector which i think if you see job growth that's bound to happen, yes that may benefit the overall

economy but has different implications for the stock market where the stock market is going to price on corporate profit. >> some companies are going to do well with some people working and some companies not quite as well so it's a shift not necessarily a sell the market thing. >> i want to bring ed into the conversation. you take the other side of this coin i would imagine? >> i would argue what we're seeing in the market is a catch up from the profit of growth we saw last year. last year double-digit growth and the s&p went nowhere so the major shift has been the risk of a disaster scenario, lehman brothers two has come down and even though i agree with rich profit growth is slowing and will slow, i think we could see good movement in the market because we're catching up to the growth we already had in sales and profits last year. >> so you're diving in, you're diving out? what are you doing? >> i'm not trying to overstate it. we're becoming on the margin more defensive than we were but

we were extraordinarily bullish. here is a statistic i want to throw out. this quarter we are seeing more negative surprises as a portion of companies reporting at any time since '07-'08. >> if you were to look at the confidence study of ceos, i was in davos last week they would tell you people are more confident than they have in ages. >> i would respectfully say those are not leading indicators. >> ceos are not leading indicator. >> if you looked at two or three years aren't you more bullish about the corporate profit growth than a year ago? >> in proper context if you look at the statistics in the united states and statistics around the world they are much worse around the world. the u.s. corporate sector remains by far i would argue the strongest corporate sector in the world. that's not change. >> what are you really pointing to as causing the --

>> if you go back to what steve was saying before, productivity isn't what it was two years ago. >> it had to end. >> of course. >> we hired some people and that's good. >> that is good. i'm trying to say -- >> where are you seeing thinking that 105 might be peak or we might not hit it. >> joe, there's europe now, there's the dollar, there's the emerging markets. >> dollar's come back down. >> year on year still up about 4%, 5% roughly. you've got europe, you've got the emerging markets when they're slowing, look at china and india and these economies are slowing dramatically, you've got a lot of issues going on. >> i think you're underestimating -- >> ruining it. >> let him into the conversation for a sec.. >> you're underestimating the powers of cycles. we're making 14 million cars and junking 16 million cars in the united states. we're in the early stages of decent employment recovery. the initial claims of

unemployment fallen back down to roughly, the average level the last 30, 40 years. we still have room to go on the labor front and you're starting to see some traction in income growth, the latest numbers look positive so if you start to get a self-sustaining, positive economic cycle that profit growth although will slow down from the high rates of last year can still be pretty comfortable for another several years to come. >> ed we'll leave it on a positive note if we could, rich, very interesting stuff and thank you, steve. comments, questions, about anything on squawk, shoot us an e-mail sauk@cnbc.com. still to come he's been to six super bowls six times in 18 years. we're going to go long with new england patriots owner bob kraft. it's a big week on "squawk box," all leading up to friday's big jobs number.

got a jobs prediction, maybe a thought about facebook going public or just want to say hello to the gang. sweet us @squawkcnbc is our handle.

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super bowl sunday is more than just a game and commercials. it's about good as well.

more food will be consumed this sunday than any other day except for thanksgiving and frito lay is ramping up production by 18 million pounds of chips leading up to the big game. joining us now is the queen of corn, chief marketing officer, ann mercergi. >> yes. >> it's 18 million pounds but once it settles it's only 12 million. the bags aren't full. fill those bags. >> i will. it really is. >> you ramp it up that much? >> listen i will tell you it's like super bowl for us, for ree t doritoes is like cakes at birthday. it's not surprising we ramp up production. people love to party. >> 18 million pounds. >> so you must be a huge beneficiary of value to

guacamole and salsa. >> they sell salsa, tostitos salsa. >> love it, yes. >> it's incremental. what about chees-whiz? >> the chips is the base to make that happen. people love to create new things. >> what is the biggest brand for you on the super bowl? doritos? >> i would say tostitos. >> doritos, lays. >> i like the tostitos the cups, the scoop. >> you like scooping. >> if you dip a doritos you got problems. >> i'll tell america the secret, 37% of doritos is dipped because it's full of flavors. >> when is the last time you had one without a dip in. >> tostitos i eat them without

anything. >> doritos are made with nachos. >> it is fabulous. >> what would with he do, if there were no tostitos -- >> the world would not be a happy place. it's the way to party, i'm telling you. >> i thought coke, and i'm not sure about this strategy anymore, i'm not sure whether you focus your attention or not but made sense to make salty snacks, beverages. >> absolutely. it comes together. when you have a party, if you don't have a beverage you're not going to the party. when you think about a pepsi and dorito go together you can't have a better combination. >> can we talk about stacy's chips? >> aren't they wonderful? >> they're not that much healthier. >> are they healthier? they seem healthier. >> they are baked. >> you might as well take the extra 20 calories and go for

some real snack. >> there's more to it, though. and also they don't break. tostitos under the salsa. >> that's depressing. >> that's why you need a scoop because when you have a scoop it doesn't break. >> but sometimes you can't get enough in there. >> oh i hear that. >> she knows. >> i still the barbecue chips and a diet pop is a great combination. >> diet pepsi and barbecued lays is a match made in heaven. pepsi-co, we love building brands. >> we so -- >> how many calories are -- >> you don't want to ask that question. not on sunday. >> you don't ask that on thanksgiving and super bowl. >> i guarantee you it's 100% more than a typical sunday. >> i would think more people eat more food on the super bowl than thanksgiving. but. given what i do at least. >> ann, thank you. >> thank you so much for having us, guys.

enjoy the game. coming up this morning's jobs report, will it score some touchdowns? time for today's aflac trivia question. on this day in 1961, what song by the marcels reached number one on the billboard hot 100 list. the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues. huh! no! who's gonna help cover the holes in their plans? aflac! quack! is aflac! or help pay the mortgage? quack! or child care? quack! aflaaac! and everyday expenses? huh?! blurlbrlblrlbr!!! [ thlurp! ] aflac! [ male announcer ] help your family stay afloat at aflac.com. plegh!

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question, on this day in 1961, what song by the marcels reached number one on the billboard hot 100 list? the answer "blue moon." >> aflac. ♪ federal authorities cracking down on a website that streams unauthorized broadcasts of sports events ahead of this weekend's big game. ironically the word came hours after tom brady told reporters in indianapolis he watched last year's game on an illegal site.

investigators brought charges against a michigan man who owned nine of the sites. the u.s. attorney warned sports fans it costs leagues and broadcasters millions of dollars and costs on to the consumers. federal authorities seized $35 million worth of phony super bowl sportswear and nationwide sweep as a result of a four-month investigation. you can see the site streaming on nbc. follow us on twitter, our handle @squawkcnbc. up next going for ace fourth super bowl ring, new england patriots owner bob kraft joins us. what is happening behind me? my nose is running.

welcome back to "squawk box" on this football friday. we count down to the super bowl. the 2011 budget deficit will be smaller than expected, the

deficit now expected to come in between 9.1% and 9.4% of gdp, once the final numbers of last year are calculated. no facebook fatigue for users of the service as we look ahead to the initial public service a survey said there's no sign among long-term facebook users that they're getting tired of it. that's mentioned as a possible concern ahead of an ipo and ahead of the january jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time let's look at the futures. green arrows across the board there, dow would be open up about 36.5 points higher, s&p 3 points higher. back to you, joe. >> i don't know if we've mentioned it or whether it's in any of the newspapers but the patriots and the giants are going to have a game this sunday, a super bowl rematch, joining us now bob kraft, owner of the new england patriots, besides being on "squawk box" he also has the honor of being on the cover of this week's "sports illustrated.

". >> first time ever for an owner. >> first time ever for an owner and 1992, bob, no one has had as much success as you either i don't think. >> 1994. >> 1994. >> but i'll tell you, the only time i paid attention to the "sports illustrated" covers my son, daniel, reminded me is when the swimsuit issue came out, so i'm not sure how many people pay attention to it. >> businessweek always called the tops and the bottoms, 16% interest rates, sometimes there's a curse being on the cover of "sports illustrated" but i don't know if i'd put much credence on that when you got brady and the rest of your team. >> we have a wonderful team with a wonderful spirit, and i love the locker room we have this year. i'm also mindful, we have

formidable opponents on the other side, the best defensive line in football, and a quarterback who i think is underestimated and underrated by a lot of people. >> and you've got -- >> it will be a great game for nbc. >> you have the possible divine intervention watching over as we all know and we've watched the team with that in mind as well, bob, so you got a lot of positive things happening. >> it's a great year. it's a great time to be here in indianapolis. we're privileged to be in the super bowl, and i hope for nbc it becomes the most watched program in the history of television. i was thinking how it related to washington and it's such a great event. you have the, probably a third of the top ceos from all over the country coming here to this event, it's the largest

appointment television product i think, well i know in america, if not the world, you talk about what people are paying for ads. i have a special friend, andrea nui i think she's taking out seven or eight ads because it's time to reach a mass audience when families are together, when good things are happening, and it's probably the only time that people watch the ads with as much interest as they watch the game. so we have something great going on here, similar to what america has going. our country is so fabulous and it's disappointing the vitriol and anti-business attitude in both parties. business is what creates the jobs and creates all the opportunities and we have to do

more bridge building and make this country as great as it's always been. >> one party might be more anti-business. we don't want to go into that, the vitriol you're talking about. everybody watches the ads, different than a normal night of, which is one of the problems of prime time. >> which is wonderful, and i believe there's a big evaluation that goes on, but it's also nice that young people, i think back, my sweetheart never went to football games with us. the only time she gathered with us to watch football was the super bowl. so it's also a great family event, and you know we're pretty proud, our commissioner showed great leadership, and we have ten years of labor peace and 11-year agreements with yourself and the other major networks, so

we're the only product that's on over the air tv, free tv, available to every fan, and we're very excited about our product. >> how is gronkowski right now? i saw an article that he has johnny bench hands, doesn't he? >> grank onk is the best and i' tell you a little story if i can that might be a little off-color. as we were driving out, you know, wes welker used to always get these signs "marry me, wes" and now gronk is getting them and of course he has quite a diversified portfolio of ladies who like him. let me put it like that, there was one sign as we were driving out it said "i'm gay and i'm for gronk." so he is a bridge builder, and brings in people from all areas. wes has a little trouble understanding that. i think a little jealous of that.

>> i think attention anywhere i can get it, too, but i know what you're talking about there. even different phylum -- no. i was going to ask you about the last game and what do you think the pats need to do for a different outcome from november? >> well, against the giants? >> yes. >> well, first of all we have to, we have four turnovers in that game, and we have to make sure we hold onto the ball. >> uncharacteristic, too. >> at stripping the ball, we have a great scoring machine, hopefully we can put up more points. i know that tommy and the whole offense are really focused on trying to execute well, and then i'm very proud of the way this defense has come together, so i think if we execute our game plan, and in the end, turnovers are really what usually make a difference. we were quite fortunate in the

baltimore game and when you have two turnovers differential, you have a 17% chance of winning the game. so we have a regular chance to win that game. we're fun of the tish families and friends in new york are friends with the kraft family and giants fans which is part of what makes the nfl great is that people never lose their rooting interest for the teams they grow up with and i hope we bring nbc a great product on sunday. we're excited. >> you're saying the right things. >> bob you've talked about the business and how the super bowl creates soment excitement for advertisers. we've been trying to figure out whether it's a strong ad xharma or the super bowl brings so many eyeball there is. you have your fingers in a lot of different businesses. what do you think the overall

advertising outlook is right now? >> i think that's an astute point, becky. i think our product draws so many people, the super bowl, that it's the one appointment television where people can attract a large audience. i just talk about our packaging and paper business. the business is still pretty good and usually right three weeks before christmas things slow down. we've been doing pretty well but the one thing that restrains us is, is we're paying a lot of overtime. we're not letting people, any of our managers hire people. we still want to see a sense of confidence and planning and thinking long in washington. that will continue to be our mantra, we're talking to our friends throughout the country, i don't care about republican or democrat, it's putting america first and creating jobs, the

entrepreneurial spirit, that's the heart and foundation of what's made this country great and we're privileged to live in this country and we got to stop the bickering and vitriol and put america first. and get confidence, confidence. i think a lot of ceos still don't have confidence of the policies in washington. >> we got to do something. we have hard decisions to make and we got to run. >> you can have all of the programs and responsibility to take care of the aging population but we got to trade jobs and economic activity to do it. business is not the enemy. thank you. >> thank you for coming on today. good luck. >> great to be on with you. >> we'll be watching. >> when we return we'll take more about the jobs report.

how's it going? good afternoon. don't feed that meter. this meter's on me. with all the hundreds i've saved at progressive, this meter's on me. thank you. de nada. with all the hundreds i've saved on car insurance this year, this meter's on me. there's a catch? there's no catch. nothing but savings. thank you very much. have a great day. you, too. you're sexy. [ laughs ]

20 pages. boom! the other office devices? they don't get me.

they're all like, "hey, brother, doesn't it bother you that no one notices you?" and i'm like, "doesn't it bother you you're not reliable?" and they say, "shut up!" and i'm like, "you shut up." in business, it's all about reliability. 'cause these guys aren't just hitting "print." they're hitting "dream." so that's what i do. i print dreams, baby. [whispering] big dreams. welcome back, everybody. over 2 million u.s. soldiers have served in iraq and afghanistan and now face a new threat, staggering rates of unemployment. there is a coalition of american companies working to try to fight that one job at a time.

nate herman is the executive director of military and veteran affairs for morgan chase and also a retired marine and current active involvement with the reserves. >> currently in reserves. >> nate thank you for coming in. >> thanks for the chance. >> this is a huge problem and until i read the statistics i didn't realize how big of a problem. you want to walk through the numbers for post-9/11 veterans? >> it is a problem of epic proportions and the problem is especially acute on the 18 to 4-year-olds where the unemployment is about two times that of the national average. >> for all veterans it's 7.7% but you look at the post 9/11 veterans it's 123.1%, for women it's 26.1%. >> that's correct. >> why are they having a difficult time finding jobs? >> seems like a simple equation, supply and demand. when you peel the onion back it's complex. on the veteran side, it ranges

from 18 to 22 yearlies, figuring out what i want to do, to how do i find a job to how do i take my skills that i've learned in the military and really translate them. on the employer side, on our side of the equation it's about where do i find veterans, how do i source them into my firm and what do i need to do, what wraparound services do i need to provide to make sure they have not only a job but a successful career in our organization. and those are some of the challenges we're trying to tackle. >> the coalition includes a number of companies, obviously you're with morgan but this includes 7-eleven, adt, at&t, ncr, iron mountain, ems, delta, verizon, cisco, a huge number of companies here. how do you take these companies and try and match them up with veterans? >> the coalition is called the 100,000 jobs mission. the goal of the mission is really to find like-minded firms and who are committed to hiring veterans but not only committed

to hiring veterans but address the variables at play in this transition continuum. we started out with 11, we've grown to 28. >> companies? >> 28 companies, actually had three come on board within the last two weeks, lockheed martin, ibm and target, and the companies are, meet regularly on a quarterly basis and are looking at not only how do you source veterans but how do you support them, how do you integrate them into our cultures and what are the drivers, so this they stick around long-term. >> first of all i think what you're doing is fabulous. i think one of the opportunities though is to go into mid market companies. we employ 7,000 full time people, 14,000 part-time. >> at mdc. >> i'd love an opportunity to meet some of these 18 to 24-year-olds because they are social media savvy, they are technologically able, they're able to be trained. i would think there's a big market of firms, the big multinationals are involved but

there's a mid market opportunity as well, and i would really love to pursue is. >> we would be privileged. we would be fabulous. >> i agree with you. big companies we can do, we can do our part. i believe we can show leadership through morgan, through what we do, come to some conclusions others can leverage. small business and mid sized businesses will hire a significant amount of veterans as well. >> can you speak to the issues involved with those? >> i can speak personally, i spend a lot of time in the hi hierarchal organization which morgan is not. just learning how to make it through the organization is a lot. just the sense of purpose. in the military it's defined. you know why you're getting up every day, it's always a sense of mission and end state is

always there. when you join corporate america that's not necessarily the case. a lot of veterans work through that aspect as well, as i get up every morning, why am i going to work every day and dragging myself out of bed. >> if you give them that sense of purpose and that vision and you tell them what you want to achieve and empower them to do that, they're probably exceedingly effective as carrying out that mission. >> they are and one thing we have found that works for us is building what we call employee network groups. we have 20 plus employee network groups around our organization that are veterans who as soon as the veteran joins the firm try to grab that veteran and help them make that transition because you're right. they work hard, they stay late and they're team oriented. >> if other companies want to get involved is there a way to reach out or go to the website? >> 100ooojobsmission.com.

look to joining us. >> it's great what you're doing. >> thank you. coming up, more of our jobs report pre-game and super bowl stocks you can watch plus a two-minute drill with our guest host. "squawk box" returns after this.

♪ take a look at some stocks to watch this morning. we just got a couple for your entertain. estee lauder, $1, in line with expectations and guidance was increased, fiscal '12 guidance increases local currency sales forecast 9% to 10%, it was 8% so they raised the bottom level and the company now sees the quarterly results though below. 2.16 to 2.23, versus expectations of 2.26. it's weird it's trading down. the bottom line number is below the estimate whereas the sales forecast was increased on the low end. and rim, which is research in motion, one of darren's questions, maker of the

blackberry, downgrade to underperform from hold. >> very sad. >> it is. you're a blackberry user. >> and canadikcanadian. >> what could have been done? >> i don't know. >> our guest host miles nadal, its advertising gu are yru. >> we can talk about facebook. >> you talk about social media and involvement with the super bowl. as an investor, not just as a buyer of advertising, whether you think facebook is for real and -- you are a broker. are you going to call your broker and say you want a piece of this? >> let's talk fundamentals. they have now 845 million subscribers. 485 million. 55% of them use facebook every single day. they have $3.8 billion and made $1.5 billion. they're going to price it $75

billion to $100 billion so 65 times pre-tax cash flow, versus google ten times, apple at nine times. >> leaves you where? >> i think they price the ipo to jump in the aftermarket. i think they're too smart, i mean it's been the most hyped, anticipated ipo. interesting, by the way in 1980, apple's ipo was a $2 billion market cap president fundamental thing, is it a real company? absolutely. is it transforming social media? absolutely. but they're in the first inning of a ten-inning ball game. the question is when you've got $100 billion market cap, bigger than mcdonald's, bigger than 3m, bigger than amazon, how much bigger can you grow and what is the growth rate going to be? they're pricing in perfection for growth rates. you saw their growth rates slowed from 134% in '10 to 164% in '10. >> sounds like a skeptical

review. >> ultimately you have declining growth rates which ultimately people are going to look at and go wait a second it's slowing its growth. it's still going to do incredibly well. do i think it's a $34 stock when it comes out that goes to $100 or $200? i don't know. pretty hard considering it's a $100 market cap. >> i feel you're going to get a slug of that. >> i'm not buying the stock. in the risk/reward i think it's priced in. in the private market it was a $140 billion market. could you see that. i just think that if you see one quarter where they have a hiccup of some sort, they will get annihilated. the can. is extraordinary. >> one question people asked about with advertising it's a huge number of daily users, 430 million plus. >> 485 million. >> but a lot of the users are mobile users and had a hard time getting advertising to the mobile devices. as an advertising component of

that, where do you come down on it? >> they'll start advertising on the mobile which could be very big. the great opportunity they have is not increases in number of users, it's advertising revenue. >> right. >> and they're only less than $4 billion. they could have $20 billion and the conversion is very high. you've got 40% conversion to ebitda from revenue. >> have you found -- >> only five time sales instead of 25 times sales. >> they have to achieve those kind of numbers to justify value. >> you need pretty big margins at five times sales to make money. >> i think they have a superb management team. i don't know mark but i know sheryl sandberg. i think they will achieve great success and i think they're only in the first inning, relative to the penetration of advertising. keep in mind two years ago when i was here, do they have a model for advertising that's going to work. where are you on the stock? >> i'm supposed to be --

>> i love both sets of owners but i got with the giants. i love the giants. i go the to go the giants. >> thank you for being with us for the past hour and a half, appreciate it very much. >> plesh u. >> have a great weekend. >> feels like it went by quickly. >> sounds like you'll be spending time with them next week. >> pebble beach. in the next hour the "squawk box" jobs team is huddled up and ready for the big kickoff. z >> they really are. >> they're going to go blue the playbook ahead of the january report. they have their game faces on for the third hour of "squawk box." we'll be back with that and a lot more. he optionsxpress, where you can trade your favorite products,

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the january employment report is a half an hour away. we'll tell you what the number means for the business, the

economy and white house. the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> welcome back to "squawk box," i'm king arthur. this is my -- >> the round table. >> wow, hi. how is everyone? all in one place. >> on the set, this is something. >> have we ever done this? >> what is your name? >> this is a new record i think. you are -- >> steve liesman. thanks ai lot. >> zandi? come on. >> we all know each other? >> i'm your left-hand man. >> i thought you were austan goolsbee. when they're in a two-shot they look like the same guy. >> nobody is to your right

because it's impossible. it was impossible physically. >> i'm the joke ear long with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. becky is to my right. >> top story is the january jobs report. economists polled by dow jones say about 125,000 non-farm payrolls were likely added last month. the reuters is looking for 150,000 new jobs but both numbers are down from that big surprise we got last month, 200,000, analysts are warning that seasonal factors drove up december's data that may impact january's report as you see givepack. there were seasonal workers added before the holidays, jobs likely lost in february. we'll talk more about the jobs number with our panel of experts in a moment. first look at the futures ahead of the number and looks like people are getting a little more concerned and a little reluctant to do any big bets ahead of the number. dow futures up by 21 points. s&p up by over one point.

>> dow has come off by half. let's check on the european markets. averages touches fresh six-month highs, encouraging data from the eurozone and the euro itself if we could switch over. my trip to paris is getting a little more expensive, getting a little more expensive. >> what happened to the european recession we were headed for? the data is not proving it. >> a low of 1.26 but headed back above 1.31 at this appointment. counting do unto the january unemployment report, the number that moves the market, closely watched by politicians and businesses at this point because we're heading into that election. our panel of experts is here to break down what the numbers are going to mean both for washington and wall street. joining us right now is our guest host and moody's analytic economist mark zandi and diane

swank, bob bruska and steve liesman. let's run around the horn and figure out what your expectations are. mark what numbers are you looking for? >> about 100k, on the soft side. payback from december. the winter weather has been mild and they're having a hard time with online sales at places like fedex and u.p.s., we had a big gain last month and we will esee payback. i think unemployment ticks up a notch. >> 8.6? >> 8.6%. >> that's trickier to figure out because of the participation. >> a lot depends on labor force growth and we've been wrong about that for quite some time. >> we haven't had an upittic in how many reports? >> four or five. >> at least. a couple people thought we might have it and they were much larger drops than people thought all along. i don't think it's going to happen. i don't know if we'll ever get an uptick.

if they were my numbers i wouldn't let it happen. >> if we maintain the current rate of job growth -- >> steve? >> what's that, sorry? >> joe always believes there's a conspiracy around this. >> that's more santelli. >> if there is a conspiracy, there are something like 1,000 people involved in it. government is not that good, as you know. >> but if they were my numbers i'd have the rate coming down. i wouldn't like an uptick after five straight doupticks. >> consumers look at the wallets and say hey. >> the confidence numbers were awful. >> not great. coming up from pre-recession levels from confidence, woo. >> how high would the unemployment rate would be if we had a higher participation rate. >> there's too many, there's so much noise in this data right

now. >> with all that noise what are you expecting? >> i'm looking for 115,000, lighter side, the courier is looking for that, worried about the seasonals. we've seen new business formation are komgs throucoming the adp data. not overly optimistic on the number. >> what about the employment rate? >> i'm at 8.7 so i'm a little bit higher but it is who knows, it's hard. >> the reality on average 100k in january -- 150k is the bottom line. >> that's where we're at. >> bob how about you? >> private jobs at 145, we have this progression here, keep going up a little bit. >> a little optimism. >> good to have optimism. >> i think private sector jobs around 165. i do like the fact that you have confidence, and declining jobless claims.

its household report has been kicking out major jobs in the last three, four months so there's a trend there. i believe there's a trend. i don't think that it's just all about messengers and the seasonals. i think it's a real economic recovery that's being reflected in a broad spectrum of data and that's what i'm looking for >> why are you not discounting the couriers? >> it happened so you don't get couriers, you get something else. the adp was a strong number, pointing toward 170, and then they revised down the number from the month before so that miss wasn't quite as bad but looking for an authentically strong number. say what you want about the adp, it has given you a right signal. it's been a bad headline estimator but a good signal. >> what adp says is new businesses tend to use payroll business. if you ask bill dunkelberg, the existing small businesses the aunt is doing the pail roll. what you pick up in a positive

note in the adp data is not a lot of new business formation, not enough but it's a start and a change in a trend that can't be caught in all the data we're going to see today. >> bob what about the unemployment rate, more participation drives it up? >> i think it will stay there. the participation rate has been doing what it's been doing. we have an aging population and a lot of things going on, i'm not prepared to chalk it up to recovery weirdness. i think it's a fundamental shift >> steve how about you? >> 165, i'm optimistic. >> wow. >> jobless claims point me there, adp points me there, some of the consumer confidence are there, profits are reasonable and the other thing is you have the trend. i don't think bls and seasonal adjustments is as bad as everyone gives them credit for -- >> or discredit for. >> you had the a couple years of the courier coming in so i think the courier adjustment is creeping into the seasonals over time so it's not a full 45

discount, it may be 35, 25, something in there and you may get an offset in retail if that's true because if there's couriers delivering packages to houses, it means there may be fewer retail people that were expected so you could have an offset over there. finally i have no call-ups, way too many moving parts on unemployment. you can't make a call on that. if i'm wrong about this i expect to be right in the hours worked because if they didn't hire people i think they're going to be stretching out a little bit. >> what do you think the hours will be? >> it may tick up by two ticks. >> so if job growth is 150k a month and we stay there through the rest of the year. >> are you going to add this up to your 16 million job padded number? >> no, labor stays flat and it's been basically flat for four years so that's not an unreasonable forecast. the unemployment rate on election day about.

.9. >>.9 on election day. >> when does it matter -- >> if it's under eight that's an obama win easy you said? >> no, i never said that. nothing is easy. >> wait a second, is election day too late? some people say september 1th is when voters make up their mind in terms of the economy. >> although i think what matters is the trend line. >> the trend, and that would be a positive trend. it's not because i'm sensitive but the whole aging population, i don't like that term. has there ever been a period in history when the population was not aging? >> we have to show a baby boom. >> they're still aging. >> i'm mistaking your asking a serious question, that's my fault. >> it's never stopped. >> i know you did some stuff on participation rates but you know i can resemble this comment, the women are going back to school. >> i'm going to sue you for defamation of character. >> i stayed in school in the

1980s. i'm going to paris for my 50th birthday and my husband is a great guy, i'm loving that but it's coming up but anyways i stayed in school and kept going to school because there was no way to get a job and i was an economist and i knew there was no way i could get a job. i got every scholarship i could, i paid for it, not government, i got merit scholarships but that was what i did, and that's what a lot of women are doing, men aren't. women are sta iing in school which is an interesting caveat, now the women are going to be more educated than the men. >> we're wearing red ties and becky is wearing that. >> and this is close, i'm a heart survivor. i have a clamp on my heart. >> really? >> yeah. >> which kills more women than cancer. >> i had two taas, i know what this is about and i appreciate your support and the pink hopefully reads red. >> i wear this tie all the time. >> he only wears one tie, mark

only wears one tie. he's trying to look like austan goolsbee, right? >> he always wears a red tie, too? >> i don't know. >> but your eyes are red. were you out drinking last night? >> yeah my eyes are red. i took the red eye. >> he was drinking this morning because he knew he was going to be with you. >> sit tight. we'll continue this panel discussion in a moment and job numbers coming up 19 minutes from now. we're counting down every tick by tick. okay, so it's 18 minutes, 43 seconds. january employment report is right away. we'll come back to our panel for final predictions in a moment. jane wells is in little rock, arkansas, where a company is bringing back jobs from overseas. jane? >> reporter: becky, i'm going to pick myself up here, 140 motor grade, cat pillar hired 4,000 people last quarter, half in the u.s., they're about to reshore

1,400 more, made in america, when "squawk" komsz back.

welcome back to "squawk box" on this jobs friday. we could also call it super bowl friday.

the futures right now looking up, though not as up as they were a little earlier, as we await this big jobs number. dow jones would open up about 30 points, 30.5 points higher, s&p 500 two points higher and the nasdaq open up about seven points higher. shares of estee lauder stock taking a big hit in premarket trading. forecast profit of $2.16 to $ $2.23, below estimates of $2.26, stemming from an increase in marketing costs for new product launches and you know joe all the cream we put on our faces. >> never before did i listen closely to makeup stories. both of us do. >> moisturizer. >> it's partly being on tv and partly being old. >> but you still have great hair. >> i have great hair. >> how old are you? >> i don't need makeup, i need a

surgeon. and i'm looking at bob, too, both of us are -- >> wow! >> he started it! he started it, said he was drinking. he said you were drinking. >> i don't use makeup, it's spackle. >> you know the largest age in this country? >> 55? >> very good, 52. >> that's what they mean by the age. >> a lot of 53 and 51-year-olds and the second largest age, if you get this i'll give you a copy of my book. >> 21. did i get in. >> yes, excellent, my kid. i'm 52. >> just to dampen, 52 is a cliff year, 53 goes down. >> you get stuck in the demographics because you get looked over and hosed every turn when you're in the middle. >> there's an advantage. >> no, we end up paying for your retirement. >> we're all economists, we have

a lot of economist friends and economists never retire, they just die. so you don't have to worry about it. >> some of them die before they retire. >> and the baby boom and the result is i will always work but never be able to retire. i'm 63. last year of the baby boom. >> you don't look a day over 62. i need to get to a 30-year-old -- jane, i don't know, jobs story from dow component caterpillar bringing jobs back from overseas. cnbc's jane wells, where are you, jane? >> reporter: i'm in little rock, in north little rock to be specific. this is not an endorsement, this say mandatory bump cap you have to wear, a plate to protect the equipment from my head, and also i'm rockin' the the claw.

they spent $140 million and this two-year-old plant employs 550 people and plans to get to 65 employees, capacity for 900. some of these people were out of work. >> caterpillar is not just a great thing for little rock. i think it's a great thing for arkansas as a whole. >> reporter: debbie johnson and her co-worker mark johnson, no relation, have both been here 18 months. she worked at lucent for ten years but that company went offshore. mark took a pay cut to come here, started as a welder and worked his way up to supplier quality engineer. >> it's extremely difficult to find a company of the caliber of cat pillar that has the benefits and you know, the opportunities here for career advancement, and

just to find a company like this and to find a job is extremely difficult in this area. >> one of the jobs that i previously had was sent overseas. i think that we as americans, we have the capacity to build anything with quality. >> we get tax incentives for the number of employees we hire, also the investment we put into this facility, there were tax incentives for that as well. >> now that's key, general manager paul rivera says arkansas is fiercely competing for another multimillion-dollar plant coming to north america from japan, two dozen states are competing for that new plant and it's 1,400 jobs. the plant will build mini hydraulic excavatoexcavators. cat isn't moving here for patriotic reasons but for business ones. >> and that business was really asian focused in the '80s and '90s and really the demand for that product has moved to north america and europe right now so we're moving it closer to the

demand. >> reporter: and guys, states are trying to figure out in these budgetary times how much they're willing to give away to lure caterpillar to the states. canada and mexico are even vying for it and to make his case, the governor of arkansas will join us on "squawk on the street" live later on. >> great, thanks, jane. i like that, protecting the equipment from your head, that's good. coming up, a few minutes away from the release of the january jobs report. next we'll get some final predictions from our panel of experts, and as we head into break, check out tyson, the largest -- check out the largest u.s. meat processor earnings that beat the street by nine cents. [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're minutes away from the january employment report. let's get final predictions from our panel. most of guys, almost from this side it gets better and better in terms of optimism. >> liesman? >> liesman has the highest prediction going with 160. >> that's on a tear this morning. >> 100, 115.

>> to i get a mug? >> i get a paper cup. >> i get a mug. >> if the missing people in the labor force, the unemployment rate would be, if they were actually in the unemployment rate would be 10.4%. do you buy that? >> a lot of folks stepped out of the workforce because times are tough. they're actually saying if you look, there's at least a couple million people more than normal, whatever that means that say i would like a job but i don't think it's worth looking. >> don't you expect more and more of them to come back in? >> if you think the job rate is enough you'll see participation rate go up a bit.

it's like hope indicator. >> there are bases they have to touch to be included and if they don't touch those bases, it doesn't work to set home on your couch eat a potato chip say i'd like a job. if you don't want one and not looking. >> unless you're a potato chip taster. >> there is research with a long period of time, unemployment rate over 8% you start to diminish not only people who are working their earning potential but cumulative effects. >> they have to pay gasoline and child care, so the unemployment rate will come down quickly in the near term. these folks won't come back. once the unemployment rate comes in, 7.0, 7.5%, then it comes in. >> rick santelli joins us from chicago, what is the number? >> reporter: 97,000.

>> says it with such certainty. >> he's at the right spot. >> what is your unemployment number, rate? >> reporter: i'm not going to even throw out a guess, unless you can tell me how many unemployment we've dropped out and don't count anymore or give me that shrinkage factor au, i' not playing the game. i'll stick with 97,000. >> everyone in around 100 except brusc. >> this is all within statistical -- >> this is the so-called benchmark provisions and now it's back from two months to three months. >> they're adding another 190,000 jobs from march 11th on, that was the estimate if. >> the benchmark is 190. it could be more than that now. >> we got to run because we're going to be getting the number in just a moment. >> we have to wait.

t wait is almost over. we'll see where the dow futures are ahead of the data. up about six.

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all right, welcome back to "squawk box." we are just a few seconds away from the january jobs report. hampton peerson stands by at the labor department and joins us with the numbers. >> up 243,000. january non-farm payrolls increased by 243,000 jobs. the unemployment rate 8.3%, average hourly earnings increase 0.2%. that's the biggest increase in employment since february 2009, biggest monthly gain to 2011, way above the consensus. private sector job growth up 257,000, the job growth was widespread across the economy. 70,000 additional professional and business service jobs added, 44,000 hospitality, 50,000 in manufacturing, 21,000 in construction. the revisions for november and december added an additional 60,000 jobs to payrolls from

what was previously reported. about that 8.3% unrate, frankly, more people were employed, fewer people were unemployed. the size of the labor force also increased, and this drop in unemployment happened despite new census controls being put in place in january, that basically added more younger and older workers. we also got the benchmark revision going back to march of 2011 plus 165,000 seasonally adjusted added, changeses the year over year totals from 1.8 under 20,000 jobs reported versus 1,640,000 previously reported. a lot to chew on. back to you guys. >> all right, wow, thanks, hampton. let's get reaction now from our panel. i love this. stock market is just great, isn't it? january, you see that 4%, 5% and here we go. >> this is good.

>> what happened to the european? >> i've been skeptical from day one. i did not see it in the numbers and i also said that it's going to be hard to have a european recession if germany doesn't come to the party. >> some black swan is the worst case and we were going to get at least a recession, right, and now i don't know what we think about europe after this. >> it's in recession. >> europe's got problems. >> but still -- >> the pmi has not shown it. >> q4 is still negative. >> there's spillover. we're not seeing impact on the u.s. economy. the one key link was for the banking system and you'll see it, lending is still small. >> by the way you got the strong numbers and you got the uptick in average aggregate weekly hours index up 0.2. >> that was what you said. >> but i didn't expect to have the strong growth and the uptick in the hours worked. so we're employing -- >> hours worked increased as well? >> average weekly hours up 0.2%

change. manufacturing up 1.2%. you know where i got that story was phil lebeau, phil lebeau came on and talked about the midnight shifts, the graveyard shifts they were adding instead of adding people. maybe i ought to plug that into my think being what's happening in the workforce, manufacturing hours up 1.2, and the work was was up 250. the participation rate had could have increased, employed up by 631, so at a time when we thought the household and payroll survey would be coming together they're going further apart so the household story is maybe telling a story of sole proprietors, that's not necessarily good if they're ohm doing a little bit of work. >> gets back to the adp, also i've been talking to big companies, baxter, they're using niche companies for innovation. >> unemployeds fell by 381,000. i don't know, is this a breakout here? >> early earnings? >> i'll get to that in a second. >> certainly fits with the other

things we're hearing. the picture has been the only bad news we get is when things aren't good than we expected. so all of this is consistent with improvement. >> talk to rick, we should get rick back in here and see what the market is doing. >> reporter: you added a dozen basis points to the 30-year yield from, in round figures, 3% to 3.12. you added about 11 basis points to the ten-year note and you know, as you go down the curve, i always think if you're looking to see what kind of the specie trad gamesters, the buy-back programs, if you want to know what the finance guys are thinking, looking at the five-year, 74, so that adds up about four basis points on the five-year. listen, there is nobody on the planet that would like to see 1 million jobs created a week, much less than a month, so i hope that there's nothing i can poke holes in this data on. of course nowadays to get to the

epicenter you need to do a little calculating, so i'm going to go upstairs and play with it on the bit but on the surface looks like a great number. >> so bernanke has no idea about any of this before it happens? >> i don't think so. my read is he gets it in the afternoon. no, they get -- my understand something they get a piece of the data to calculate their industrial production data. >> 2014 we're ready with more, still slow, we're this, we're that, and he gets a lot of flack for it. earlier this week it's like can the economy, will you ever not think it's your responsibility to carry this on your shoulders? will it ever be just the u.s. economy in. >> if you looked at congress, joe, what would be your conclusion if you were fed chairman? i can rely upon them to fix housing and create the right, to do the -- >> but they got to make the right fiscal -- >> i don't understand what you're complaining about. >> i'm complaining that eventually i want to go back to where every single month we're not -- the fed doesn't come in

and say wow, i'm going to have to help the economy here. >> joe you're on the leading edge of exactly what the market is thinking right now, which is strong numbers like this, a continuum of decline in the unemployment rate, how solid is a late 2014 promise from the fed. that is exactly what the market is thinking. >> what is the market thinking on that? rick, can you tell us what any of those numbers are? that's a huge move. >> he's going to feel bad when he's not got the economy on his shoulders. >> i'm saving the world. he's like atlas. >> rick, what is the market betting on this? you talked about the 12 basis point move we saw for 309-year, the 11 basis points for the ten years, do any of the feds funds futures tell you any of this stuff either? >> reporter: i think fed fund futures is going to be a tough one. let's talk to wolfman, wolfman, what do you see in fed fund

futures? any response to this stuff? >> not really. they've come up for a little but for the most part they're still same. >> reporter: fed fund futures would sell off so that would be the dynamic to look for but also remember fed fund futures even when the markets were more normal you had to look at the next one or two meetings. now that they've pegged it out supposedly to 2014, you really have to go back in time and fudge it a bit so the long and short answer is fed fund futures, you're very nearby contracts is what you want to pay attention to but they don't seem to reflect any change yet but hey, if you put a couple of these numbers back-to-back, what do you think, wolfman? >> basically they're taking it out on the 14, putting it into the 13s. they're rolling it in a little bit. we are talking 2014 was going to be the first time that you really saw anything. right now you're looking at december price in almost 100% chance of a 50 basis point cut

by december of '13. >> december of '13. >> i got you. >> great. i just want to add a couple of things here, temporary health services, 20,000, that dipped for a little bit, now back to a longer term trend. the other thing that's happening is i'm trying to think why did the economics or consensus get it wrong, and it may be an issue of the growth is happening in the service sector and frankly 70% of the economy is in the service sector and it's a bit like that part of the economy is behind a curtain and we don't see it. we don't know how it works. 176,000 in service providing, importantly finance was down. information technology was down but professional and business services up. >> we talked a lot about the couriers before we get into the number about what was going to happen to all of the folks that have been hired up in december. where are these people now? >> certainly with the big number it doesn't matter. >> they will be swamped.

this is the problem with focusing on one category. we have to look at the aggregate. you may know one little piece of thing but in the aggregate the numbers have been good and this is what happens. you may be lost in messages but we got a lot of other stuff. the bond reaction, rick wants to look at the fed fud futures but the bond it giving up on qe. if the economy is strong people won't talk about qe. >> i'm a minority on qe3. i know charlie, i'm in chicago and he said i'm a minority, not the majority of the fed. people got aed has of themselves. it was in your pocket if you had a europe meltdown, that was not necessarily going to be -- >> europe is not out of the woods though. >> no, it's not. no, it's not. >> it's very usual to get unambiguous jobs report. usually you have a lot of cross currents in the data. this is unambiguous. everything is good, hours, the increase in payrolls, the revisions, the temp help, everything, i mean it almost

feels, you know most, if you go back -- >> that's another good call but mark i want to ask in general, employment is seen as a lagging indicator, what we could be seeing is the strength of the growth from the fourth quarter, because this is something that i'm wondering, things have been so negative in the country that in certain instances, you may get a positive bump from the psychology of the jobs number being back. >> all the leading indicators in the jobs numbers are positive. the temp help, the hours worked. >> the competition. >> if you go back and look at the cycle act of the '90 '91 and the '01 recession, we had the period of no job growth and a light switch went on in corporate america and almost we got a report like this. >> does this change your outlook on gdp? >> yes, i had a little over 2% in the first half of the year, probably still a little over 2%, i'm in the middle of working on

it now. >> got to plug numbers in from this report. >> it means i have to stop chewing off the edge of my pencils. i'm keeping my forecast. >> what? >> 3%. >> you have to stay and you're going to come up that way. >> you use andy? >> 3% in q1? 3% for the year? >> i'm looking for 3% for the year. >> really, okay. i'm expecting something closer to 2.5 for the year. >> i was at 2.25 and now probably 2.5. >> the difference between a rising stock market that's not debt induced, wealth effect rising values. >> this is going to change the entire political conversation. >> doesn't matter. we want to see americans back to work. that's okay. z>> it's got to follow a long wy to be positive for the president. it's not enough to have it declining. declining might make you feel better but it's hard to get the level to be positive. >> you were finally happy and

not worried about things for a second. yeah it's looking better for you. >> joe write a note, draft jeb bush. >> many thanks to bob bruca, diane swonk, steve liesman and rick santelli and mark zandi. this is where you earn your guest host mug. move over a little. >> he's going to say bad things about us after we're done. >> come up thest reaction to the unemployment report. still to come on "squawk box" why a giants super bowl victory could mean big losses for las vegas. courtney reagan will join us live. >> this isn't the real sea zoor's palace is it? >> what do you mean? >> uhm -- did caesar live here?

zero-to-sixty in less time than a porsche panamera s. the 429 horsepower genesis r-spec. from hyundai.

welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now have responded accordingly to that great number, up 120 now. the u.s. economy adding 240,000 non-farm jobs in january, well above analyst forecasts. job addition fos are december and november were also revised higher, and you're not going to let the unemployment rate rise. oh, no, no, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, that is the -- did i not tell you it was

going to drop? >> yes. >> there's no way, that's the low nest almost two years. >> conspiracy. >> it's not going to rise. it's got to drop. let's get down to the new york stock exchange, carl, melissa and jim join us now. the other night mcdonald's is staying open all night, carl. you know this, i know because you're the expert on mcdonald's because of all the people working nights, that's why hours worked are going up, we're seeing all kinds of stuff as far as indications of improvement. >> interesting. no one covers this number the way you guys do. it's been a great half hour of television as we work our way through the data. we'll do the same thing starting at 9:00. only 1,500 couriers and messengers let go during the month which is not undoing the 40 some odd they added in december. >> no and people are going to say do we sell the defensives today? have they run out of room? i'll watch >> parry: she which reported a good quarter yesterday and watch kellogg. if those sell down that could be

a sign the cats will have another leg up. >> large cap tech is another way to watch. microsoft hitting a level we haven't seen since 2010. today it looks like it's poised once again. we're having the big cap technology stocks close to 52-week highs and this should provide a boost to them. >> the golden cross worked. it will attract sellers and we get a better level later on. >> we'll keep it short and see you in 12:30. coming up the super bowl bets that could mean big losses for las vegas. courtney reagan joins us live from caesar's palace. courtney? >> andrew, while many fans would love to see an underdog win the super bowl, vegas doesn't. there's a lot of money on the line.

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welcome back. the new england patriots are the favorite to win this week in super bowl but a new york giants victory could mean big losses for vegas. courtney reagan is standing by with more. >> reporter: good morning,

becky. here at caesar's it's the calm before the storm. i'm told that later today we will see lines formed and this place will be packed. more tables will come out to accommodate the crowd. while vegas loves the casino traffic that the super bowl weekend brings it's less excited about the 2008 rematch between the giants and the patriots. >> i do believe nevada will need the new england patriots to win this game. i think it'll be somewhat like '08. the public will back the giants. we're already seeing a lot of giant money so come sunday we'll be rooting for the patriots. >> reporter: that's because the giants were the underdog by a 12-point margin in 2008. when they won, las vegas sports books suffered their first losses in 20 years. the odds for the giants' win are now just 6-5. six weeks ago when they were 7-7 cantor gaming was offering 80-1 odds for the new york team to win. if you put a hundred dollars on that futures bet at those odds you stand to win $8,000 if they

win on sunday. while 80% of the wagers will likely come in on saturday and sunday he says he is seeing a lot of money from new york and so far the public eased betting on the giants. he isn't too concerned for his sports book but knows others that are. >> there are a few sports books with some pretty heavy risk on the giants. if you get 80-1 on your money, that's a pretty good thing if you have that bet. >> we'd love to see new england as it stands right now, our future book would do better. in that case. but overall, you know, it's anybody's guess. it's going to be a close game. >> not only does vegas not want the giants to win but when patriots win, so does vegas. when new england won in 2004 and 2005, vegas had two of its best thr three-win percentages in the last 21 years. most of the sports books do hedge their bets but losses are still possible. when we asked jay how he feels

about the potential for losses he says sometimes that's just how the chips fall. back to you guys. >> all right. courtney, thank you very much. we'll be watching. of course you can watch the super bowl sunday on nbc. this morning we are continuing to watch the futures boards. after that jobs report, very strong -- stronger than expected jobs report, gain of 243,000. the unemployment rate falling to 8.3%, the lowest level in almost two years. as a result you can see the dow futures up by 116 points, triple digit gains right now. more from our guest host mark zandi. "squawk box" is coming right back. >> next week we have a huge lineup. on monday we'll talk m & a with rothschild's larry grafstein. tuesday our guest host is the casablanca cabinet chairman. plus we'll introduce a new "squawk" master of the market, wednesday. an investment guru who is never shy about speaking his mind. thursday, pepsi's chairman and

ceo will break out the company's earnings. and we have a one-hour roundtable with three "squawk" market masters. friday, "squawk box" is live from pebble beach, california, with larry summers, at&t's ceo randall stevenson, and legendary actor bill murray. >> it's in the hole! what makes the sleep number store different? you walk into a conventional mattress store, it's really not about you. they say, "well, if you want a firm bed you can lie on one of those, if you want a soft bed you can lie on one of those." we provide the exact individualization that

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before we go let's get some final thoughts from our guest host mark zandi. we could probably talk the politics. >> really. i'm an economist you know. >> i know. but you get involved in politics. >> he's played both sides of it. >> you were mccain's guy. >> i was. >> 8.3%, if you're a betting man now, how does this change your forecast for next month? and that i think would actually potentially then influence the politics of where things go. >> yeah. i mean, certainly it influences my thinking. it feels like the economy is breaking out, so underlying job growth i said before the report was 150. it feels like it's closer to 200. >> what does that do to the unemployment? >> what have we averaged the last six months in down ticks in the unemployment? we average about 2.2 per month. >> the data has been revised and

changed, so i haven't seen it -- 9.1 back six months ago. >> and now 8.3. so over one per month. so eight months from now theoretically you could be at 7.5, headed down from 7.5. >> certainly below 8. no one thought that. >> right. >> in recent forecasts done just a few weeks ago, you know, cbo did a forecast saying 8.5 by 2012. >> the greatest thing is that means we're not at this point stuck in a new normal where, i mean -- >> the united states is supposed to -- we're supposed to have 5% unemployment. >> if that's the case. >> right. >> and the number comes down, say the number comes down under 8. >> right. >> preelection. >> if you believe it's all about the economy my question for you, if you believe that's what it's all about -- >> what is the argument that romney, assuming he is the presumptive nominee will make? >> you would say there's two different views of the path you want to take this country. one is it's the same old

rhetoric. one is the path of a more european style role for government. the other is a more 300-year american style role for government. you would still make that argument. if it comes down to just the unemployment rate and just the economy, obviously it's going to be a -- he has work to do on the approval rating. you saw the gallup poll. you see how quickly that can turn around too. >> we were talking about the break. you said it doesn't matter about the 43 states. it just matters about a handful. >> it boils down to a few states. and really i think it's florida. probably miami that matters. >> then it matters, the national number matters or the state number matters? >> really economic conditions in that state so florida was 9.9% and that's high but it's headed south. you know, i think that can make a difference. >> ohio. >> ohio. really i think it's going to boil down to a place like