caruso cabrera. >> thank you for having me. >> wonderful to have you. >> the day after the super bowl. >> you finally learned. >> it's taken me a while. i've learned the hard way. >> did you watch the whole super bowl? this is the first test. >> to the absolute bitter end. in the last 57 seconds -- >> you beat me to this. >> if i hadn't -- >> you wouldn't be a man, right? girls can go to sleep. boys can't. >> i went to bed a little early. >> i watched through madonna. >> i did, too. >> can we have a conversation for madonna for one second? >> i thought she looked great. >> may have looked great but every male and female watching the game with me at a super bowl party said she isn't moving. >> are you kidding? ? she's in her 50s, fo god's sakes on high heels. and she was on heels this high. i thought she tripped a bit and beat all the halftime shows we've seen.

>> you try four-inch heels. >> she wobbled a little. >> did you catch m.i.a. flipping the bird? >> i didn't see that either. i saw the apology. did you see it? >> we didn't know. there was a moment and everyone said, what was that? >> well, a great game. a great game and i've caught up since is then. i woke up at about 12:30 and started getting the highlights. >> you went to sleep after -- >> baby. >> you went to sleep after the halftime and then woke up -- >> well, i woke up two hours later and three hours later and four hours later. i saw a little bit along the way. >> it's much more efficient that way, the highlights. >> and congratulations to the giants. there will be a super bowl parade tomorrow here. >> in the big city. >> in the big city. we'll see all of that. joe is out this week. we have a lot to talk about. we'll head to athens for a live report. before weigh do that, let's take a look at the markets. if you haven't been paying close

attention stocks are on a five-week surge, the dow hitting a three and a half year prerecession high way, way up there. the nasdaq reaching its best level since the tech bubble was in the process of bursting. and after all those gains that we've seen recently, take a look at the vix first. it's back at around 17, relatively low levels for the vix. if you look at the futures this morning we have seen a few red arro arrows, very minor ones in europe and you'll see the futures are down. the vix as we mentioned down fearly 5% on friday. technicians will tell us that typically when the vix is at its lows, stocks are at its highs. >> new test in store for stocks on the u.s. economic front. it's relatively quiet in the

days ahead. the highlights tomorrow. the fed releases the consumer credit. chairman ben bernanke testifies on some thursday jobless claims and wholesale trade at home. plus in europe interest rate decisions from the boe and ecb. friday international trade, consumer sentiment and an update on the federal budget. and more than 65 of the s&p 500 will report quarterly results. coca-cola, disney, cisco, and pepsi. and then, of course, there's greece. never goes away. the big story for the markets could likely be greece. conflicting reports on whether the country's coalition partners face a deadline today to accept the terms of a new bailout deal. julia chatterley joins us. >> reporter: yes, there was conflicting news about whether there would be a deadline today or not. it was a spokesperson who had said they would try to make

their feedback known to the troika as of midday athens time today. that's not happened but the key issue, the key message here, is there are going to be ongoing discussions between these coalition partners and this is where we're waiting for the headlines from. what we've heard in the last few minutes is papademos has actually asked the finance mi e minister for a report on what a default will mean for greece so that he can present that to the population in order to give them a better understanding of just what these negotiations mean and how important they are for the country. now within the measures that we heard yesterday, 1.5% of gdp spending cuts, this could mean a reduction in pension payments but also private secotor wage cuts is something else we're looking at. lo local media reporting a percentage cut between 20% and 22%.

we're talking 20% of gdp unemployment rate. the two major unions in the country have announced they will be holding strikes from this evening, 24 hours worth of strikes, and there will be a l rally tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. athens time so that's also something we'll keep an eye on and people speaking locally here very concerned that given the concern locally about just what will be announced today in terms of these measures, could be a very abrupt response tomorrow if the coalition partners are forced to make a decision today. so we're certainly going to be watching out for that, too. michelle, back to you. >> thank you so much, julia. this is a country that needs to borrow every single day in order to function. >> you laid this out. >> half a billion a week they need just to keep running. if their lenders of last resort say, sorry, we're leaving, all of these wage cuts nobody wants to do, they don't want to phase them in over the next couple of

years, do you know when they happen? tomorrow. all these job cuts that they don't want to phase in over the next couple of years, if they back out on their lenders of last resort. when does it happen? tomorrow. it's unbelievable. >> i don't understand why the market is not a little more concerned about what's happening in greece right now. michelle, we talked about this already. >> i think the swaps are priced in almost all the way and so that lehman-like effect that everybody was worried about, that systemic thing, i think is all priced in. this is a fait accompli. >> priced in but not leaving the euro priced in. >> no, not priced in. no, and we also had a conversation about this about whether or not the consensus is wrong. there are a lot of people who think the euro gets much stronger if if greece leaves, if you see the euro skyrocket. >> where are you on this? >> whether they're going to stay in or out? >> you say they default about 100% i think is your -- i don't want to put words in your mouth. >> they've defaulting. you're only going to get 50% of what we told you we were going to pay you. you can call it whatever you

want, it's a default, right? >> so what happens next? >> i think they come to an agreement because they figure out that they have to please the lenders of last resort no matter how much they dislike having to tell the population that's what's going to happen and then they get this deal done. if they don't the banks have to take the bigger hole. the european union is putting up 15 cents cash on these new bonds. all the bondholders are only getting 15 cents of what they thought originally. that was cash. if the lenders of last resort, the eu, says we're not doing it -- >> all you have is a 30-year bond. >> you have a 30-year bond of 35 cents and that's what you're going to get which is a bigger hole in your balance sheets but most banks have been dumping them. >> who is holding? >> that's a big mystery. $60 billion is held by greek banks themselves and the other the banking system so that's 80 billion yeuros. >> that's 20 billion missing. >> yeah. and then the ecb has an unknown

amount. we think about 50 billion. we think the french bank between 5 pl and 10 billion. we really don't know how much is held by hedge funds. >> the weird thing is that two months ago and we talked about this, two months ago it did seem like we were walking in here and the our stock market was determined by the headlines out of graes and mao it seems like we're going to gloss that over and we don't care at all. i wonder if there's a happy medium. >> i think what happened during that time period is the banks learned that the haircut when it comes to net present value was going to be a lot worse than they thought and so they started the precedent, started to sell or do whatever they've needed to do and we've gotten better economic data. >> you talked to jamie dimon in davos. >> i think he's 100% right. >> he says if they do leave the euro, all bets are off. >> michelle brings up the good

point, does it strengthen the euro if this happens or does it at least scare portugal and the others more to say, okay, maybe we're going to do what we need to do. there's a possibility some of the stuff could fall apart. >> greece's metrics are worse by far than anybody else over there by a long shot. >> all right. it's now time are for the global markets report and some other news we need to get to. ross westgate is standing by in london. ross, i don't -- i remember when i lived in london there were some brits who did watch the super bowl. you did not stay up, i assume? >> i used to. before i started working i used to watch the super bowl. don't do that anymore. highlights maybe, but it got really big here in the '80s and then drifted away. there is a sort of core support and even talk about having the super bowl in lon 0 done at some point, andrew. >> the super bowl? >> i have heard about the olympics coming to you this

summer but i saw many commercials>> al: night about that. >> the super bowl? >> exhibition games maybe. >> an early game in the season? >> it would confuse people. >> there's a regular season game that comes every year but they've wondered whether they could ever bring the actual super bowl to london. >> no! >> do you think you could fill the stadium? seriously. >> yeah. absolutely. >> really? >> yeah. >> who would show up? >> 80,000 people in wembley, it would be full. no problem. it would be full. >> nonetheless, a lot of red behind you. what's going on over there? >> there is. benefit from the employment report we got on friday. most of the european stocks up 1%. good gains on the week. today focused on deadlines out of greece, how the negotiations are going or not going in greece. so banks are weaker so decliners outpacing advancers here by

around about 8-2 on the dow jones stoxx 600. a little bit more for the other markets. right now the ftse lower -- i'm sorry, higher down a quarter of a percent. the cac down a percent. the ftse mib down 0.5% at the moment. still yields on italian debt not too bad. we have seen yields, we were higher 5.7% but they've come down 5.6%. keep an eye on gilt as they may launch quantitative easing. treasuries, of course, rallied sort of heavily on friday. yield back down slightly. euro/dollar, come back below 1.32 as we monitor events in greece. we have no idea what's happening with negotiations. back to you. >> thank you very much. i'm still kind of trying to get my head around the super bowl in london.

i don't think it's going to happen. i don't think they give it up. >> you never know. it's money. it's money. >> no, no, no. >> every year at the meetings -- >> is wembley a covered stadium? does it have a roof? that's key these days? >> we could put a roof on it. they can put a roof on it. >> they can put a roof on it. >> do they have a roof on it? >> you can close and open. >> they can close and open it. >> that's key these days. >> ross, i'll think about that. thank you very much. let's get an early check on the u.s. markets this morning. joining us is anthony chan and allan gayle of ridgeworth capital. allen, we're looking at the market, at least the dow, at 3 1/2-year highs and there's a story in "the wall street journal" today that says the thing that's gotten us there, these surging corporate profits, could be starting to lose some of the steam that they've had to this point. does that concern you at all that the market's gains would give back if profits don't continue to outpace?

>> i think that's a good point. if you look at the earnings expectations for 2011 and more importantly 2012, we felt that the earnings expectations were a bit on the high side. we see those numbers are starting to come down but we think they're coming down to more realistic levels. we are in the $100, $102 range on the s&p 500. i think we'll see more trimming here but the key message for me is that companies continue to excuse well. they have strong balance sheets and lots of cash as we obviously picked up on the apple report. so what that suggests to me is out of all the sectors of the economy, the private sector has worked the hardest, earliest, and have gotten things together and i think that's helping to lift this market. >> and we've also watched the stocks actually come back, i think, about 95% from the lowest levels in 2008 and the financial crisis. we've had so many people who have come on the show and said

that stocks were at a generational low, that this is a buy opportunity. when you've seen this kind of a move back up, do you still see stocks as the best place to be for your money? >> well, i say we continue to be cautiously optimistic on the equity market from an absolute valuation standpoint and on a relative standpoint. the fed has stepped in and will anchor the yield curve for some time to come and that's going to keep long bonds range bound in our view. we do think the ten year is trading to the lower end of that band and we think they're vulnerable in here particularly if we continue to see better economic numbers as we go through and friday's economic report was one example of where while the economic numbers are far from robust, they're moving in the right direction. >> anthony, one of the reasons we saw the latest burst of

optimism is whether a we saw friday with the jobs report. better than expect ed gains anda bigger than expected drop for the unemployment rate. is that something you think is sustainable at least over the next six months or so? >> well, becky, when you are going to need is a little bit more consumer spending to make that sustainable because, again, the growth in the united states is not going to get a lot of support from global economic activity. i was a little encouraged because we're start to go see the length of the workweek picking up. i know it was unchanged. it was revised higher by a tenth. and that's good for about the equivalent of about 400,000 people in terms of purchasing power so when you look at the run rate in january, it's running that payroll proxy over 5% and that's encouraging. that gives me at least a little hope that we'll see a little bit more consumer spending which in turn will build upon itself and create a little bit more on the job front. and that has to be encouraging.

>> what about the participation rate, though, down several percent from where it would be normally, i think closer to 64% versus the 67% we've seen. do you expect to see more people coming back into the workforce looking for jobs and, therefore, bringing the unemployment rate up? >> becky, that has been a problem for quite some time. i looked at the data and if you look at the increase in the working age population, about 94% of all those people that came into the population stayed out of the labor force so the incremental increase in the participation rate since the recession has been only 6%. i realize we have a labor force participation rate that is below 64%. it is very low and, yes, you are absolutely spot on. as the economy gets better, it's only logical and, in fact historically it's been shown the participation rate tends to

increase and that will tend to dampen the possibility of the unemployment rate moves a lot lower and that's one of the reasons the projections show they don't expect it to come down. we're already near the central tendency of the fed's projections for the end of the year already. >> anthony, allen, thank you for kicking us up on this monday morning. >> thank you very much. coming up, mitt romney winning the nevada caucuses this weekend. is the gop nomination all but his at this point? we'll talk to john harwood next. first, though, attention, giants fans. news from mayor mike bloomberg's blogs. the city will host a ticker tape parade tomorrow. it will begin at battery place and washington street 11:00 a.m. sharp and continue no northbound up the canyon of heroes. where do you get ticker tape these days? >> that is a very good question. >> the guy is in charge of all the confetti.

and then there was a time you could cut up old phone books. those don't exist anymore. >> this is made up confetti. >> made up ticker tape. >> it is not recycled, i'll tell you that. >> you would worry about that. the parade will be followed by a ceremony at city hall plaza. now as we head to break, check out the global market headlines. [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field. take the privileged investing tools of wall street and make them simple, intuitive, and available to all. distill all that data.

make information instinctual, visual. introducing trade architect, td ameritrade's empowering web-based trading platform. take control of your portfolio today. trade commission-free for 60 days, and we'll throw in up $600 when you open an account.

welcome back, everybody. there are some red arrows as we start the week off. probably not a surprise given that the dow was sitting at a 3 1/2-year high. you can see the dow futures down by with about 60 points. some could be a concern about headlines out of greece. we'll continue to follow that. s&p down by just over eight points. by the way, keep an eye on shares of humana today reporting fourth quarter results at the top of the hour. the earnings in line with consensus. the company did lift its full-year forecast. the new outlook is still below

the street's expectations of $7.79. not a mini super tuesday, it's a tiny, tiny tuesday. john harwood is joining us from washington with the latest. john, did you stay up late last night and watch the game? >> reporter: i did. telephones an excellent game. kudos to eli manning. brady couldn't quite do it. >> so if you were bradshaw and you saw you could have gotten down on your knees -- >> he messed up. >> what would you have done? do you think you would have known? it was like i want the it htoucn but i don't know what to do. >> reporter: they talk about this stuff and cris collinsworth had been saying on air they need not to score because they can run it down to one second and kick the equivalent of an extra point. the key play, of course -- >> manningham. do we have manningham?

that was unbelievable catch. >> reporter: the other key play, though, andrew, when brady hit wes welker at the 20 yard line on the previous drive before the giants got the ball and it was an awkward catch. welker is a great receiver, usually catches it. had he done that, they would have certainly scored a field goal and would have been much more difficult for the giants. i have a question for you. since the redskins actually beat the giants twice this year, does that really make us the super bowl champs? >> no. >> reporter: no? >> not really. >> reporter: dang. doesn't work that way, does it? >> not really. >> i don't understand that logic at all. >> he thinks they're better than the giants. >> doesn't make any sense. let's talk politics. we haven't spoken since friday when we got the new jobs number and i'm curious how you think that's going to be impacting the conversation both in what i am calling mini tuesday tomorrow. >> reporter: it's impacting the entire debate in the country and

one more of the positive developments for obama. if you look at the poll out today obama hits to 50% approval for the first time since he was briefly there when osama bin laden in the wake of osama bin laden's death he has a clear lead by nine points over mitt romney among all adults, a narrower lead six among registered voters. president obama's position is getting stronger. it doesn't mean it will stay strong. we'll have to see what will happen the next few months, events with iran and that sort of thing. >> does it do anything to the conversation within the republican primary though its f itself? >> reporter: not really. to some degree it makes -- it opens the door for somebody like rick santorum or newt gingrich to make more robust arguments, let's say, among conservative christians. not that much. pretty much to this point

everyone knows he will be the nominee so the conversation within the republican race is of limited value at this moment. you see the magnitude in nevada, you see what mitt romney has on tap in colorado. he looks pretty strong there. >> nevada, nevada, nevada. >> reporter: sorry. >> joe is not here. >> reporter: that's the first time i've mess ed it up in thre weeks. >> sheldon adelson is said to get behind romney if newt wasn't the man? >> reporter: of course he will. every big republican donor 0 will get behind romney if he's the nominee. >> not only get behind him but put up more money than against newt. >> reporter: sure. at that point you're in the full-blown partisan war. it's hard to take sides in a primary because most of the big donors, defensemmocrat or repub have got multiple friends within their own party.

sheldon adelson and his wife are being loyal to newt gingrich, somebody they have had a relationship with for quite a long time and, you know, singularly funding this super pac effort but he's a smart guy. he understands the odds are very, very heavily weighted against newt gingrich and so he wants to be on the right side of the eventual nominee and if you are a conservative republican you believe what your party stands for, you are going to want to be all in. >> gingrich isn't even on the ballot in missouri, right, john? >> reporter: it's a beauty contest, becky. it doesn't really -- missouri has caucuses later in march to actually select the delegates so it's one of those faux events. rick santorum is polling pretty well in missouri. there are a lot of conservative christians in the missouri primary electorate. this is one of those things no

matter what happens can be discounted because there are no delegates attached to it and none of the candidates were there today. >> it's too soon to count anybody out of this race, correct? >> reporter: no, i'm counting everybody out except for romney, however, the race is not over. you get to a stage -- there are a couple of different elements of primary contests. one is the momentum phase where you are competing to get attention to get everybody to say that you're rolling which creates a self-sustaining effect. the other part is the accumulation of delegates to get nominated. we are far along on the momentum side of the race but we've got a long way to go in terms of mitt romney accumulating the delegates to be nominated. if there's a shot for anyone else in the race it is almost certainly a shot for newt gingrich on super tuesday when you have a bunch of states including a couple in the south where he's relatively stronger to tray to punch through and win a couple of victories but you still face the reality that newt

gingrich, rick santorum, ron paul who, by the way, is supposed to have finished third in nevada. did i say it right? >> that was good. >> reporter: one of those guys hopes to break through but they face mitt romney has the money, the organization, and he's the guy who can compete everywhere across the map. >> yes, he does. john harwood, thanks for getting up early after -- i don't know if it was a late night for you or not but for some of us around here. >> reporter: it was late. >> we'll see you later. thanks so much. >> up next, how the company plans to raise revenues. first, though, a super bowl nugget to bring to the water cooler with you today. the highest tweets per second last night came at the end of the game topping 12,000 per second. the second highest was during madonna's performance. cnbc's resident tweeter darren rovell will bring us the stats.

first, take a look at last week's winners and losers. so -- tell me again what happened. i was downstairs making coffee, and we heard it. it just came crashing through the roof, out of nowhere.

what is it? it's our ira. any idea what coulda caused this? maybe. i just sorta threw a little money here, a little money there. and i loaded up on something my dentist told me was hot. yeah. ♪ what makes the sleep number store different? you walk into a conventional mattress store, it's really not about you. they say, "well, if you want a firm bed you can lie on one of those, if you want a soft bed you can lie on one of those." we provide the exact individualization that your body needs. welcome to the ultimate sleep number event. not just ordinary beds on sale, but the bed that can change your life on sale. the sleep number bed. this is your body there.

you can see a little more pressure in the shoulders and in the hips. now you can feel what happens as we raise your sleep number setting and allow the bed to contour to your individual shape. wow! that feels really good. it's hugging my body. it's not about soft or firm. it's about support where you find it most comfortable. right now, queen mattresses start at just $599. and save an astonishing 50% on the final closeout of our innovative limited edition bed. you can adjust it however you want so you don't have to worry about buying the wrong mattress. hurry this week to the ultimate sleep number event. only at one of our 400 sleep number stores.

are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind... mom and dad, i have great news. is now providing answers families need. siemens. answers.

welcome back on this post-super bowl monday. in corporate news, some interesting stuff. facebook reportedly set to begin showing advertisements to users on mobile devices before its ipo. saying that the social network giant has discussioned row poseals with unidentified agencies, talking about displaying what it calls featured stories in the news feed. the goal is to tap a new source of revenue, and we talked about this earlier in the broadcast just last week looking through the prospectus this idea facebook makes no money on its mobile sites so you use your iphone, zero ads. boeing also this morning discovering a problem related to the fuselage of its 787 dreamliner. i remembered reading this story over the weekend and worrying. they are making repairs that

will not affect production. the plane was three years behind its development schedule but entered service last year. they're not really talking, though, exactly about what the fuselage problems are. >> so much of the work was outsourced and brought back in and that raised questions, was that a good way of doing business and this has those debates coming back. >> and we heard about the cracks in the airbus. the large -- what's the number? the mega, the giant -- >> the a-380? >> very good. have you been on one? >> yes. i logged 300,000 miles last year, yes. i've been on everything. >> would you go on it again? >> yeah, yeah. i like 777s or 0 a-380s. >> why? >> just big space, et cetera. >> move around. >> 757 coming back from europe, you have to worry about landing in nova scotia. >> we did have those conversations, too. ma'am done is reportedly

planning to launch a retail store in seattle. the website good ereader.com cites sources close to the situation saying the store will be a test project,the form of a small boutique to engage the market and determine if chain stores would be profitable. amazon is known as the company that killed stores. the store will focus on ereaders and tablets along with cases, screen protectors, and usb adapters. >> i don't know about that. no overhead. >> if you're barnes & noble and you hear about that, this is the end of you. it was before hand -- >> either that or it's the moment they jump the shark and try to do the retail thing. >> wouldn't you try to buy borders or something? >> they're probably thinking more apple in terms of those stores. >> in terms of location. >> if you have comments or questions about anything you see here, e-mail us.

coming up monday morning strategy from earnings to the crisis in europe. the events most likely to drive trading coming up later. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about the cookie-cutter retirement advice ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you get at some places. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 they say you have to do this, have that, invest here ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you know what? ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 you can't create a retirement plan based on ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 a predetermined script. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we actually take the time to listen - ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 to understand you and your goals... ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 ...so together we can find real-life answers for your ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 real-life retirement. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 talk to chuck ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 and let's write a script based on your life story. ttd#: 1-800-345-2550 without the stuff that we make here, you wouldn't be able to walk in your house and flip on your lights. [ brad ] at ge we build turbines that power the world. they go into power plants which take some form of energy, harness it, and turn it into more efficient electricity. [ ron ] when i was a kid i wanted to work with my hands, that was my thing. i really enjoy building turbines. it's nice to know that what you're building

is gonna do something for the world. when people think of ge, they typically don't think about beer. a lot of people may not realize that the power needed to keep their budweiser cold and even to make their beer comes from turbines made right here. wait, so you guys make the beer? no, we make the power that makes the beer. so without you there'd be no bud? that's right. well, we like you. [ laughter ] ♪

welcome back this monday morning. uconn he cyou ca u.s. equity numbers are looking down. we have some red arrows across the board. the s&p 500 off about 7 points and the nasdaq off about 9 1/2 points. hasbro reporting fourth quarter earnings a penny better than expected. revenues in line. the company increasing its quarterly dividend by 20% to 36

cents. michelle? >> our monday morning strategy session. economic data boosting optimism among investors. let's find out if the improved mood continues or not. guys, good to see you. we were talking earlier, are the markets too complacent, jeff, about the situation in greece, the fact we have no resolution, that we may be looking at a messy situation? and yet markets have rallied except for the slight pullback this morning, joe. >> i don't know that markets are too complacent. europe poses a short-term risk to markets more generally. we're more confident, though, on our side the improving economic data are more sustainable and that any sort of a resolution in greece will at most be a short-term disruption and so we are more positive in that sense. >> phil, do you agree the data is good enough to offset what could potentially come out of any messy situation over there? >> yeah, i mean, economic data

has been pretty decent. a lot of investors are coming into the s&p. the problem with the eurozone are going to continue to go on. we have deadlines. deals are just coming and going. the problem is there are just too many people to agree on anything over there. i mean, the reality is they're going to have to implement sp d spending cuts, budget cuts. it's going to be tough to do. >> the pullback that we see this morning that's just because we rallied so sharply and we need a pause to refresh or there's more to it? >> i think we're taking profits up near this 1330 level, then we'll come up a touch on the s&p. there are too many people boosting money into it. the market to watch this morning is the gold market. it's come off quite a bit and after friday's payroll number i think that took qe-right off the table and it has people taking safety -- that need for gold and safety off the table and you will probably see the fed come in the next few meetings revise when they are going to raise

rates, bring that back in a little bit. that's why i think gold will sell off here. >> jeff, is that your outlook as well and, if so, what are you doing this light of the jobs number on friday and when it comes to your investment portfolio and advice to clients? >> i think the jobs number was a really important one because it suggests last month's number wasn't an aberration about but there was more momentum in the economy. from our perspective we've added to equities globally and in that sense we have pulled back -- >> because of the jobs number? >> no, we did that a couple weeks ago because the cyclical improvements seem to be coming through now. yes, we're dealing with recession in europe. yes, there is a greek default we need to get through. but in that sense we've moved away from tail risks to the economy and the market more generally and as that happens we should be adding more risk to allocation. >> so you said you went overweight on equities and that was at the expense of gold, correct? what else did it affect? >> the expense of bonds. we also increased our allocation

to some of the more cyclical sectors within equity markets so we're now overweight technology as well as industrials. we're underweight things like telcos and utilities. >> what's the risk to that? >> certainly it's greece. a messy default that unhinges the financial system causes a sharp sell-off in the financial sector would certainly add to a spike in volatility. >> what else are you watching besides gold? >> the oil market looks interesting, trapped around t theedthe $99 level. people are playing that in a small trading range. inventories have been building. the down side is still limited. you have those geopolitical risks. a dip in the oil market, mid-'90s. >> you look at this brent chart and i think a technician would just have a field day with that.

guys, thank you so much. good to see you, jeff and phil. >> thank you. all right, coming up, the most watched and the most tivo'd moments of last night's big game right after this break. and then we go beyond the gridiron and we'll talk about the other huge contest from last night, the super bowl ads. which ones worked, which didn't? we have exclusive cnbc data still ahead. so -- tell me again what happened. i was downstairs making coffee, and we heard it. it just came crashing through the roof, out of nowhere. what is it? it's our ira. any idea what coulda caused this? maybe. i just sorta threw a little money here, a little money there. and i loaded up on something my dentist told me was hot. yeah. ♪

hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important. well, both are important. let's be clear. they are but this is important too. [ man ] the receivables. [ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better for xerox to help manage their finance processing. so they can focus on keeping the world moving. with xerox, you're ready for real business. laces? really? slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] now there's a mileage card that offers special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? ♪ [ male announcer ] the new united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in.

but don't just listen to me. listen to these happy progressive customers. i plugged in snapshot, and 30 days later, i was saving big on car insurance. i was worried it would be hard to install. but it's really easy. the better i drive, the more i save. i wish our company had something this cool. yeah. you're not... filming this, are you? aw! camera shy. snapshot from progressive. plug into the savings you deserve with snapshot from progressive. until the end of the quarter to think about your money... ♪ that right now, you want to know where you are, and where you'd like to be. we know you'd like to see the same information your advisor does so you can get a deeper understanding of what's going on with your portfolio. we know all this because we asked you, and what we heard helped us create pnc wealth insight, a smarter way to work with your pnc advisor, so you can make better decisions and live achievement.

[ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.

we're back on this post-super bowl hohn day. we know how the actual game turned out with the giants beating the patriots in the super bowl but plenty of opinion coming in on how advertisers did with their new commercials. our own darren rovell here with a special guest. darren? >> for the tenth year tivo is releasing its data on how their subscribers watched the most intriguing ad. the vice president and general manager of audience research and advertising sales for tivo to break the results of their study. thanks for joining us. so who do we have up top? i think we had the doritos one which was created -- >> i loved that one. >> -- created by john friedman and he woman a million dollar bonus from the fwguys at pepsi. tell me how that resonated and how do you do your research?

>> i would say the reason it resonated dogs, babies, they seem to play very well in comedy. interesting point about doritos is that they have had two of the top five slots and two of the top three slots this year, two of the top five slots for the last couple of years and if you look back over our ten years, they've had positions in the top ten over the last six years so ever since doritos have been doing content, they've been doing that. tivo, it's important to point out, is the only source of commercial dvr measurement so it tells a much different picture than you see with live viewership. with tea show you get a sense of every moment of the game on a second by second basis what's been rewound and rewatched so it tells the full picture. >> do people actually rewind and miss a piece of the game because they have to see the commercial again, or do they go online and watch it as the game then goes

on? >> well, we've did he have fitly seen tivo subscribers rewind and watch programming again but thes you never miss a moment of the live programming because everything is being recorded but the tivo device. >> you can then fast forward through a bad commercial. >> the content debuted first online web sites there was a lot of chatter how well would the commercials do during the game versus the ones seen prior to the game and if you take a look the top three slots none of those commercials were viewed or debuted online before that. >> that was my pint before thoi game the advertisers going before this are not going to do the debut because it kills the buzz not only the game but the buzz after. do you think this is going to change when people look at the results of this and other polls out there?

the strategy of putting the ad out before in order to try to get the ad and its content out there. >> absolutely. i wouldn't say having the previews online beforehand killed them because a bunch in the top ten were online but if you want to be in the top spot i would save it for the game day. >> i've been trying to look up the clint eastwood super bowl ad because i missed it and everywhere i go it's been taken offline because of nfl violations? >> you can see it on youtube now. >> i've been trying to get through and keeps taking it down. >> that's interesting. what was the reaction of that, tara? >> it didn't make it into the top ten. i liked the ad personally but it didn't have the humor or necessary elements to get it into the top ten. >> what do you think about the idea of driving purchases? doritos wins. what does that mean? we know doritos is already a mass consumer brand so what does

it actually mean to win something like this versus what you've seen in the past? doritos i think won in 2010. >> well, doritos has been in the top spot now for the past, in the top ten at least for the past six years, but how it attracts to purchases, the super bowl is the most watched tv event of the year, the level doritos has yields success for them so it must be translating into purchases as well. >> tara thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> darren, do we have a camera to see what's going on? there was a commercial, we shouldn't talk about it, the david beckham commercial. what are you doing under here? >> these are his briefs. >> you're wearing his briefs over your suit. >> you want me to go straight up here this morning? >> no, we do not. >> these are his briefs. >> now i think the commercial was smart because it certainly

stopped people. >> i stopped in my tracks. >> and at the same time i think women buy most men's underwear. >> my wife has never bought me underwear. do you buy underwear, can we put this up? no, seriously, this is a serious conversation. >> men can have -- >> becky is silent. >> men can have five holes in their underwear and if you have a wife or a significant other says that's disgusting. that's the point where, so i actually think in terms of practical ads, that ready was it. >> you think it was the most practical ad. >> could have been. >> how did vegas do? >> i think vegas to going to get killed. they lost in 2008 because of the giants. >> the patriots with three, that was the spread. >> the main point is the 100:1 odds after the green bay loss. new york i think people bet on the giants to win it all at that point and that's why i think they're going to lose. the best prop bet was the kelly

clarkson prop bet. last year, christinaing aleah, the over/under was 1:53, and she hit it exactly. there were two sports books out there had kelly clarkson, sportsbook.com had it at 1:35 and bet online 1:4. kelly clarkson sang 1:34.06. >> what is the safety thing? >> so the first score of the game to be a safety was 60:1, 75:1 in some places. a guy posted on his twitter feed, he bet $1,000 and won $50,000. anyone who is betting $1,000 on the first score of the game to be a safety, i don't think has had a winning year this year. i mean if you have 1,000 bucks to throw on that bet you've made a lot of stupid bets in the last year. >> darren ravell wearing

underwear in the morning. >> i have something else. >> a tutu? >> maybe i'll be eating doritos or something. >> doubled with the underwear, inside and outside? >> oh of course there's some inside. >> good. >> look at becky, i think this say serious question she's asking. >> inquiring minds. >> i also have some beckham tattoos but i'm not going to break them out yet. >> we appreciate that. when we come back we'll be joined by bob dahl, where he's putting his money to work today. >> and what kind of underwear he's wearing. >> andrew will ask him that. we have a bit of scientific research as to which commercials were the most effective. we have the cnbc collective intellect adtracker unveiled at 7:10 eastern time. stand around. off 243,000, unemployment

8.3%. >> strong numbers, how solid is a late 2014 promise from the fed? >> these banks jumped in the premarket, continued to move higher. >> nasdaq sitting at an 11-year high. >> helped the dow close at its highest level in three and a half years.

abigail higgins had... ...a tree that bore the most rare and magical fruit. which provided for their every financial need.

and then, in one blinding blink of an eye, their tree had given its last. but with their raymond james financial advisor, they had prepared for even the unthinkable. and they danced. see what a raymond james advisor can do for you.

giant win. we know who won the super bowl, but what about the ad blitz? our special smarttracker reveals which companies scored with consumers and which did not. boeing's dreamliner hits turbulence.

a look at whether problems on the assembly line will put a cramp in production. >> and a look at the pulse of the stock market. we get the diagnosis from squawk market master bob doll and today's guest host larry rot rothschild. the second hour of "squawk box" kicks off right now. ♪ doctor, doctor, can't you see i'm burning, burning ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin and any very well crew sew-cabre sew-cabrera. the mood is upbeat at this weekend's meeting of auto dealers in las vegas. u.s. auto sales should hit 13.9

million vehicles this year, one of the most optimistic forecasts to date. the group says the sales should be helped by low interest rates. boeing says the new problem with the 787 dreamlineler not affect its plans to ramp up production. the issue involves incorrect shimmying with the aft fuselage. the company is in the process of making repairs. phil lebeau will have more later this hour. "chronicle" beat out "women in black" which starred harry potter's daniel radcliffe. futures are in the red, the dow futures down by almost 60 points, the s&p off by 7.8. the dow was pushed to its highest level last week to three and a half years. >> the jobs reports, steve liesman joins us now more. we have some changes -- >> economy, i thought we were

going to talk about the football game. >> super bowl. >> i have a whole report on the economy i'll deliver that very fast but andrew needs some guys on the -- >> towel. >> what did you bring? >> raise it a little higher. >> we're sort of all in, because it's been that type of season and you got to -- >> show that. >> the coach and the general manager. >> my question to both of you gentlemen, if you were bradshaw and you had 57 seconds left, would you have gone to your knees? >> i have 8-7 in the pool, other people know, him going in cost me the pool because the giants kick the field goal, 18-17. how else do i look at the game but about me. i think it's impossible to stop a guy whose whole life is oriented into going into the end zone. >> he was told not to. do we have a clip of this?

>> you can run it, it's huge and he wins the game but how good was it for the ratings in the last minute that he stayed in? as a giant fan we never we can never relax. >> it's the macro theme of the giants they never make it easy as great as they are. >> if eli told you what to do -- >> listening to eli in general. >> my point you could see it on his face, he was waiting and didn't know want to do. >> he fell in, he tried to stop himself and then he if el in and it was one of those things. >> a real human moment. >> a true human moment of the game. could you tell he was expecting a hands on him. >> it was an amazing game, fantastic. let me tell you about the economy here. segue abruptly into the economics of the last week's payroll number, competentists raising in the first quarter of

the wake of the jobs report along with other data, other data showed pickup in sales, andrew talked about that, pickup in manufacturing and decent consumer spending numbers and here's what happened, we did about seven or eight economists and averaged them up, at two, they've gone up to 2.4, with a high around 3, action, economics, hfe and a low of about 1.8. a lot of commentary about the jobs number some silly, some political, some both. here's what economists who study the numbers are saying, goldman, there's no question that job growth has picked up meaningfully. ubs, the surge provides further evidence that the virtuous cycle of economic activity is beginning to take hold and daiwa, the solid results from the household survey suggest activity may be accelerating and

hfe, the drop in the unemployment rate was generally good news, not an artifact of the drop in the labor force participation rate. we want to talk about how this changes the fed policy. morgan stanley interesting, they're kind of alone here. these are two good fed watchers, david greenwall and vince rhinehart saying we still believe that the very dovish fomc statement and subsequent comments from the fed officials indicate that the bar to additional qe is very low. deutsche, if unemployment continues to trend down, the fed will not have the luxury of waiting until at least through late 2014 before hiking the fed funds rate. so that sets up an interesting tomorrow, where bernanke gets up before senate budget and will testify. we would have expected the testimony from last week to just be rolled over and for him to repeat it.

my guess is he can't do that anymore, too much change in employment and the jut look he has to say something and this is going to be a potentially big market event when we hear how bernanke finesses this issue. it's not gone their way in regards to their policy so it really creates an interesting dynamic. >> the question you asked, would he have responded differently during that press conference? right? it was your question that prompted the question there would be more qe3 before this data came out. >> it's interesting because we're not sure about the whole dynamic of the press conference. one thing i think he's doing is heeding closely to the fomc statement. if he believes one thing, it might be different when the statement has another outlook. the statement itself was downbeat, not necessarily his own outlook which -- go ahead, becky. >> even if he says we are data dependent and falls back on that

clause. >> which they are. >> that brings up the whole question how could you tell us what you're doing throughout 2014 and doesn't that change the entire dynamic? >> he'll emphasize it's a forecast that sets a bar and makes the bar high for changing policy, but it doesn't mean they won't change policy. >> even saying that and acknowledging what we understand but emphasizing that by just pointing that out could change market thoughts and expectations. >> there are a lot of equity guys saying that floor i thought i had underneath me or was going to rise up because i was banking on more qe, i think that's not going to happen anymore and i think this 2014 date may come forward but the market is going to want the fed chairman to adjust, not like we want you to double down on the silly promise. we want to you do what's right for the economy. a lot of times the fed changes

and does so with the acceptance of the market. >> david tepper came on and the reason the markets rose so much, he said look either the data is going to be good or the fed's going to step in. no matter what happens i'll have a fallback. are you looking whether the fed steps in and the nubsz get better? >> you might lose this promise that goes out over two years now and might lose the additional qe but you're still going to have low interest rates from the fed and it's still going to be difficult for them to get to ride to -- >> you're getting the betert economy which was the other half of the deal. >> which is significant. let's not lose the talk about the margins and qe. 3% growth is a big number if we can get there. >> let's bring in our squawk market master, bob doll, chief

strategist at blackhawk and larry grafstein, you think you could have nailed that catch? >> no. >> steve could have nailed that catch. you would have had both feet in? >> i know we have to bring bob doll in but eli manning throws passes to places most people don't conceive of. >> do you give manning the credit for that, the passer or manning him the credit, the catch with fwoboth feet. >> two to tango. you got to throw it and be there. >> mr. doll i am going to take the conversation in another direction, ben i saw you last it was about a week ago you suggested the market might be getting overheated, you were going to take your foot off its gas a little bit and then we got a great employment number on friday. the markets continued to go up. how has this changed, our view, we can also talk football if you'd prefer, this might be a better answer.

>> it takes two to tango i'll vote in that camp. last monday i said the market seems to be getting a little tired, may take a pause but we've not seen the high for the year. there's still too much cash and there's too much pessimism and too many shorts out there. having said that, all i was trying to say is look, in four months the markets come 25%. we have moved from double dip recession in the u.s., euro falling apart, hard landing in china, and so now the markets does better and deserves to go higher. i heard the conversation, while the news is better, just a week ago we got fourth quarter gdp, maybe that's history but nominal growth was 3.2%, nominal. we can't get a lot of revenue growth and earnings growth if it stays that low. hopefully this is a transition to more self-sustained growth where jobs beget more spending

and spending begets more jobs. >> larry, what is the sentiment? >> people are accumulating catch. there's a lot sitting on the sideline. we have a lot of stimulus in the system, very low interest rates for a long period of time, lots of spending by the government, push tax rates, whether you think they're high or should go higher, you have temporarily payroll tax cuts, bonus depreciation, a lot of stimulus. i don't think it's terribly surprising things are looking better and that's good and hopefully will get better. >> 2010 and 2011, m&a was going to go gangbusters, say this is a deal that's immediately. because don't you think the deal flow seems better now, because of europe in. >> m&a is always better when confidence is better and all of

the excess cash, the alternative uses aren't as exciting as they sometimes are. it's been a healthy m&a market but as confidence gets stronger the tenor of m&a gets better. >> i thought last night's super bowl ads was the sign of the lapsed economy. remember how amazing, what is godaddy? that was -- i mean the first time it happened. that was creative destruction and then careerbuilder.com came on, and that was new. i guess it was the second time they might have been there. >> you're looking at super bowl ads as a function of -- >> with the dynamism in the economy. i thought within of two, either they were cutting back on the creative budget, there was a collective whiffing going on to mix a metaforebphor but there w

lack of risk taking. there were very few new companies. >> and references to facebook at the end of ads. >> facebook doesn't advertise. >> maybe that will change. >> ads last night and the reflection of whether or not they reflect dynamism in the economy? >> usually i walk away from the super bowl and you can remember three or four of them. i think the creativity was somewhat missing. they sure spent a lot of money. >> the clint eastwood ad, did you like it in. >> i didn't believe it because detroit is struggling dramatically. >> how about chevy on ford. >> i'm watching it online. >> how about the chevy and ford commercial. >> which was that? >> at the beginning. >> that was so weird. that was the weirdest ad ever. >> people were upset about that because ford didn't take the government money and didn't tout

when the obama administration asked them not to. >> could somebody tell me how many times the world was destroyed last night in advertisements? i counted three. >> the twinkie survived. >> they're getting rid of the twinkie, so it's not. >> bob, we've been going back and forth about greece this morning and the headlines have been concerning when you look at what's coming out of greece and yet the market doesn't seem to be having a huge reaction to it, different than two or three months ago, every day we came in and the market's direction was because of what happened in greece. >> it's part of why i think the market's getting tired and maybe a little complacent on some of the things. ltro by the ecb overshadowed the greece issue, they stepped up, going to lower rates more, quantitative easing. i think the market is breathing

a side of relief that the left tail in europe despite greece's risk is short but i agree, can't ignore greece. >> every single economist i quoted earlier say greece is the nun one threat to them and one they take seriously. >> greece as opposed to europe or the whole -- >> greece because ltro took europe off the table but reach is the huge outlier. >> i get on a plane driven by why the market cares. so far the market dun' care. it looks like it's falling apart and we're down -- >> they walked out yesterday. >> i was surprised in the reaction in the markets. >> over the weekend they walked out. what was? >> all the political parties needed to agree, all of the lenders of last resort want and they don't want to agree to them. >> and europe's opinion is running thin. >> thank you to bob and steve. larry is sticking around until

the end of the show. >> e-mail us at squawk@cnbc.com. we've got the buzz after last night's big game, which ads worked, which did not and later, jobs, the economy and the race for the white house. how will friday's jobs number change the strategy for republicans? we'll hear from political strategists on both sides of the aisle. have a comment for the crew? share your thoughts by following "squawk box" on twitter, breaking news, guest updates and behind the scenes access to your favorite morning show is now just a click away. "squawk box" on cnbc is coming right back. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] offering four distinct driving modes and lexus' dynamic handling,

the next generation of lexus will not be contained. the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. ♪

checking the futures, we have red arrows across the board after what was an amazing game last night. dow jones would be off about 49 points, s&p 500 off about 6 points and nasdaq off about 9.5 points. let's check on the european markets as investors follow the latest developments out of greece. you can see we have some red across the board as well. the giants win doesn't do much for the markets today but if the axiom holds true we should have an up year for the markets this year. >> for the football indicator? >> the super bowl indicator, we can get into the details after the break. in the meantime coming up,

boeing hitting some turbulence, the bottom line on how its dreamliners' problem may affect production and is the urge to merge back with gusto? the man behind the walgreens drugstore.com deal, but first darren ravell has the ad blitz. >> put people in the room and ask what they want and like about the ads about you we're debuting cnbc and collective intellect ad tracker takes tweets and blogs and tells you what america thinks about the ads. ♪ you're a superstar "and i gotr cash bonus for rolling over by april 16th." "i like bonuses." "plus at scottrade, there are thousands of commission-free investments." "and if i need help, i can find it online, by phone or at one of over five-hundred scottrade locations." "it's why more investors with i.r.a.s are saying.."

"i'm with scottrade." ♪ [music]

today is gonna be an important day for us. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines

are now powering some of america's biggest cities. siemens. answers. so cnbc is doing something cool, new and exclusive. we paired up with collective intellect. darren ravell will tell us about the cool tweets and stuff like that. >> cnbc collective intellect super sunday ad tracker taking 11 million tweets and blogs, mining that all together and figuring out what were the most popular ads. let's look at the top five funniest ads, audi with the

twilight kind of spot there with the headlights, steve liesman our senior economist was wondering what's with the "twilight" that appeals to teens, not people that buy an audi, skechers, chevrolet, doritos with the dog and supposedly the guy who drove a ford had died in the chevrolet. doritos the ad tracker and tivos and the brown m&m coming out and the red m&m thinking that the brown m&m was naked. now let's look at the top five ads overall and as you can see, people expect funny and when they get funny, they are happy with it. the avengers, that's just the movie with the marvel characters, skechers, chevrolet,

doritos and m&m. the message is people expect funny and if they don't get funny it's not going to be in the top five overall ads. next hour julia boorstin will talk about purchase intent, digging into the numbers more to show us the guys that paid for the $3.5 million ad, how much is it worth, will people then go to the stores and buy the products? becky? >> so darren you'll tell us more about how it works, how they decide its effectiveness? >> correct. >> can we agree they were less funny? >> they were definitely. >> betty white. there was no betty white. >> there was. >> but the moment where you said oh, wow! it wasn't so wow this year. >> if she dropped her robe in the commercial that might have been funny. >> i like that commercial. >> there you go. when you come back we'll talk about what's been happening with the markets, too. are you looking to connect with

"squawk box" online? follow us on twitter. our handle @squawkcnbc. when we come back the stronger than expected monthly jobs report could influence the election. first, trouble for boeing's dreamliner. phil lebeau is standing by and it's a story that has a lot of people concerned. >> it involves this part of the plane on the dreamliner, the latest manufacturing problems with boeing and why it may cause problems next for the dreamliner, on "squawk." then the world changed... and the common sense of retirement planning became anything but common. fortunately, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. take control by opening a new account or rolling over an old 401(k) today, and we'll throw in up to $600. how's that for common sense?

laces? really? slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] now there's a mileage card that offers special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? ♪ [ male announcer ] the new united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in.

welcome back to "squawk box" on this monday morning. here are some of the top stories. micron technology appointed mark durkin as the new ceo following the death of steve appleton in a plane crash friday. durkin had been planning to retire but says he's committed to the job. yelp! provides listings and reviews for restaurants and other businesses filed to raise as much as $100 million, the big battle who will get the listing

when facebook goals public next. as facebook moves toward the ipo will display ads to users on mobile devices according to "the financial times." right now users who access on a smartphone or other device see it without any advertisements. boeings dreamliner finds a problem with the aft fuselage manufactured in charleston. phil lebeau joins us with more. >> let's explain where the fuselage is on a 787 dreamliner. we're talking about right back here by the tail of the plane, and as we look at shares of boeing indicating lower today, the aft fuselage and the issues involved here, this is a part of the plane as you mentioned is made in charleston, south carolina, at the boeing plant. boeing confirming some 787s have incorrect shimmying in the fuselage, it could lead to delamb nation of the carbon

fiber composite frame. it so far has not. boeing has not identified how many dreamliners have the problem. at this point i'm told it's just three identified. from a statement "there is no short term safety concern. repairs, should they be needed, will be implemented in the most efficient manner possible." so far boeing delivered five dreamliners to al nippon airways. boeing is building dreamliner number 60 at the everett, washington, plant. the backlog of 787s tops more than 800 and the news here if there is one thing to focus on for people as you look at shaess of boeing is the ramp-up in production. any manufacturing delays already has a steep hill for boeing to go on in terms of getting up to ten a month by the end of 2013. we're roughly two, two and a half now so they have a hunch curve to go on so if they have

more manufacturing problems potentially this sets them back and makes it tougher to get to the ten per month by 2013. >> phil what's the company's reaction to this at this point? do they seem to be really reading as a huge issue? >> no, it's not huge in terms of they've caught it early and can make the fix relatively quickly. i talked with a few people inside boeing who said in terms of fixes this is not a huge game changer. the issue, however, becky, is whenever you come across these types of problems do you have to go back? does it slowdown production? and they don't have any wiggle room. they are on a tight schedule in terms of meeting the goal of ten per month by 2013. any time you come across a manufacturing problem like this the potential to slow down future production plans is always the concern. >> phil thank you, very appreciate it. let's get on to your money, your vote. the stronger than expected monthly jobs report friday could

signal a change for the election. jared is the former chief economist for vice president biden, and matt is from hamilton place strategies and gop economist. thank you both for joining us today. >> thank you. >> jared we did not hear the president taking a victory lap friday. he said the numbers were good and there's still room to go. is that because it's dangerous to embrace this quickly? >> exactly. the champagne is nowhere near the white house. it's smart politics and smart economics. this rate could blip up a tenth or two. it's only january. the important thing the white house contends is momentum. it's not a month or two of some gains on the jobs side and steady decline in unemployment

it's a trend and the trend is clearly their friend right now. >> the romney campaign has to be looking at this a little differently. these are numbers that are out there that show unemployment dropped to 8.3%, but there are some serious questions as to whether work or participation if that were to increase the number of workers participating the numbers could go back up again quickly. how does romney's camp play this in. >> it's funny to watch the, i don't think the worker participation rate has been closely followed as it has been over the last several days. if you hold worker participation constant over the past year, unemployment would be about 8.9% instead of the 8.3, so it's a weird number that's out there and i think that people have to be looking at that carefully. the question that it raises is, are we in a situation where some of this unemployment is starting to become structural and longer term, and how is that going to manifest itself in the unemployment rate.

from the romney camp's perspective if you look at the demographic trends there is about 3.8 million workers who are missing according to the current participation rate and so if those workers re-enter the labor force over the coming year could you see the unemployment rate tick up and i think that's why you're seeing measured commentary from the white house and from the romney campaign also. >> how does this play out as we get closer to election day, matt? is this a situation where romney can say i'm the one who can fix the economy if the rate falls we low 8%? >> well the question is, so it will be interesting if i think the 8.0% if it fets below that that's an important marker. the way voters will think about this, they vote based upon their perception of the economy and how they experience the economy. if we start to get this separation between things like participation rate on the unemployment rate and the driver

continues to be the decline and the participation rate as opposed to the increase in jobs, then i don't think that it's going to be a huge issue for the romney campaign to say the economy can be better and i think that they'll continue to say that. >> jared, this coombs back to the white house and hard to say look what i've been doing to the economy, look what i've done to turn things around without risking, alienating the people who are without jobs now, correct? >> i think so. but on the other hand while matt's points are extremely logical and correct on the numbers, i mean again i think there's a level of kind of fine tuning there that i don't think the average person does. i think basically it matters a lot whether people who are coming into the job market are getting jobs of course, but that's exactly what we've been seeing. let's not forget which ever survey you're looking at, you have a very clear acceleration in the rate of job growth. now if that starts to pull some people in, sure, some of those

people are going to be unemployed but some are them are going to get jobs and i think the key to understanding the romney/obama dynamic is mitt romney said something the other day to the effect of look, if the economy is getting better, people should go with the president. i don't know if that was a gaffe or what but i think that captures the way a lot of people think about this. it's less about granular statistics and more of a general sense are things improving and the tendency of voters is to stick with the incumbent. >> a new poll came out over the weekend the nbc/"wall street journal" poll showed the president's approval rating back at 50%, the same as since right after osama bin laden had been killed. if this plays this is very good for his re-election chances. >> i think the question becomes the december to january numbers

were zblooinktsd lying revisions say 2011 was worse than we thought it was. where are we in the trend? we had another false start last year, several months where the job creation was over 200,000 and then we had a summer of nothing and the question is where is it going to be? that's why the coming year will be interesting because there's questions about gas prices, what's going to happen in europe, all of these things are open-ended questions and all will affect the election in some way or another. >> larry, is it that easy? can you track the unemployment and say it's going to come out a certain way if it's above or under 8%? >> the thing about the market it attracts bigger companies and that's important in terms of the tone and confidence but if you look at where the numbers are

it's in small businesses and you ask yourself the small business feeling better? probably better than at the trough but is it feeling better in a sustainable way and that needs to be seen and where the gist of it will be and both sides will try to optimize their campaign strategy. >> does per sipgs become a reality if the unemployment rate keeps dropping and we know a lot of participation rates, people, yet the headline in the paper is low. you get a sense it works in the president's favor regardless. >> jared was right to say directionality is important. on the other hand the bay most people are experiencing this economy, you'd be hard pressed to say this is a great economy. 2011 growth, 1.7%. >> you don't think affects the way they really feel? >> is the person in the small business going to hire the ma g marginal person who move the numbers. >> it may force romney change

the discussion and go back to this is a president who spends too much, this is a president who wants us to become europe, a president who, right, instead of focusing on joebs, jobs. >> 8.0% versus 7.9%, there's still a selling job someone has to do, that the economy is moving in a right direction robustly, that is the question, whoo can least lead the economy forward but, sorry. >> go ahead there. jared one last point? >> two things first of all let's not forget the job gains in january occurred with the labor force participation rate holding constant so if we see more of that, then that takes that argument a little bit off the table. on the other side, we haven't talked about wage growth at all. nominal wage growth hasn't accelerated much at all and it's behind inflation, top line inflation running 3%. weekly earnings i looked at this from last week's report, 2.5%.

we have real paychecks declining. the decline is less than it was. >> the other guy is supposed to bring that up, jared. >> i'm trying to be balanced here. there are sore spots. but the thing that economists are beginning to say about this, it's beginning to look self-sustaining and if that's true, and we don't yet but if that's true it takes away the argument that matt mentioned that i worried about, perhaps we're looking at a false start. the reason you get the false start you don't have the self-sustaining robust reinforcing cycle where the job market improves, paychecks improved, consumption, you know the drill. now we're starting to look at something that appears to be self-sustaining. if that's true, i'm not say awing we're off and running but seriously headed out of the woods for the if, time. >> thank you for joining us. larry grafstein will be with us for the rest of the program. coming up the man behind the walgreens and drugstore.com

deal, whether the m&a landscape is changing. and then president obama using part of his plan for a new housing policy, what mitt romney adviser glenn hubbard thinks about that plan. "squawk box" will be right back. this week, pepsi ceo, and sam zell and many more, we finish the week at the at&t pro-am, guest host kneel gashgary joins us next week on "squawk box" starting at 6:00 a.m. eastern only on cnbc. [ male announcer ] the draw of the past is a powerful thing.

but we couldn't simply repeat history. we had to create it. introducing the 2013 lexus gs, with leading-edge safety technology, like available blind spot monitor... [ tires screech ] ...night view... and heads-up display. [ engine revving ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. my dad and grandfather spent their whole careers here. [ charlie ] we're the heartbeat of this place, the people on the line.

we take pride in what we do. when that refrigerator ships out the door, it's us that work out here. [ michael ] we're on the forefront of revitalizing manufacturing. we're proving that it can be done here, and it can be done well. [ ilona ] i come to ge after the plant i was working at closed after 33 years. ge's giving me the chance to start back over. [ cindy ] there's construction workers everywhere. so what does that mean? it means work. it means work for more people. [ brian ] there's a bright future here, and there's a chance to get on the ground floor of something big, something that will bring us back. not only this company, but this country. ♪ my journey continues across the golden state, where everyone has been unbelievably nice. mornin'. i guess i'm helping them save hundreds on car insurance. it probably also doesn't hurt that i'm a world-famous advertising icon. cheers! i mean, who wouldn't want a piece of that?

geico. ah... fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent oh dear... or more on car insurance. the futures are a negative open, not too bad considering the uncertainty coming out of europe. we're watching shares of humana, it raised its forecast for 2012 by ten cents a share. still below current street consensus of $7.99 a share. hasbro reports a profit one cent

above estimates and raised its quarterly dividend. fidel castro is still alive, we know because he made a six-hour appearance on saturday to reveal his 1,000-page two-volume memoir which covers from his birth to 1958. he was the leader of cuba, obviously he has a lot to say. >> you want to do commentary since joe is not say? >> i think it's all so self-explanatory. >> no, anyway. the mergers and acquisitions market may be smaller about you not so. chairman and ceo of sunshine partners, his firm led drugstore.com, one of my favorites, in its $433 million merger into walgreens and also with us guest coast larry grafstein. this is like m&a central on the set. >> which one of us is going to do the victor cruz salsa.

when you finish a deal and you get it over the goal line do you do the salsa? >> whether you scored the touchdown would you have enough discipline to keep your feet right -- were you watching the game? >> yes and i'm an m&a banker so whatever it s get it over the goal line. >> even if you were told not to? >> well you know, it's a team sport okay, you got me. you got me. team sport. >> let's talk m&a. mark did feel slower given the way the economy seems to be feeling and it does feel slower. >> i'll make an argument we're in a smaller but healthier market and a sign of companies positioning for competitiveness and recovery. >> what does that mean? >> a lot more strategic categories. andrew we've talked about the data throughout last year. every single category has seen over $5 billion, $2.5 trillion,

not small. it isn't what it was before the financial crisis thank god. >> it's 100 times i feel like it's groundhog day, the cash, the cash, the cash, so much cash sitting around. you'd think there will be a day, a moment, two or three big elephant sized deals happen and everybody calls you and says oh my god, we got to go. the train is leaving the situation. >> i don't know what you consider an elephant but january was weak with $100 billion in change in m&a. >> we went through at&t and that did not happen. >> this is not at&t. i've already had interviews with some folks in the european union, everybody was going to look at it, but the market likes it on both sides. $2.6 trillion last year a bad year in a zillion different ways. you guys were talking about it, we all talk about it, yet it's

up 7%. what's missing? what's missing is the dumb m&a. i'm glad the t-mobile/at&t was shot down. >> gladly have less fees and do less work and fewer things. you want more vacation time. >> first of all it was $30 billion of m&a fees. plenty of trough for everybody to stick their little snouts in. >> i love this. a quote to end all quotes. >> you said you wanted a sound bite. >> right there. >> we're a boutique independent firm just as rothschild. we are about our clients. our clients are trying to do -- >> >> all of this cash, they should be looking at it, oh, this is a degree of history. is it calming down, the ltro?

>> all of the bad news is out, secondly a long-term three-year operability, the ltro and thirdly raising money for banks. anyone with credit can go to market. portugal is a little like cranston, rhode island, not important in the grand scheme of things, even spain can borrow money. all good things can come to an end, equity has just had finally a great bull market in january, m&a will follow and i talked to my clients, our firm represents companies in every sector of the economy, we're talking about a lot of stuff. there's a debate -- >> because they can use their currency. >> you can use your stock and cash. you can boor row. >> borrow for free. >> borrow cheap money. american companies are sitting on $2 trillion worth of cash and what does everybody want? access to the american consumer.

it is going to end. it is. >> i'd say two things, i don't think m&a necessarily kokz strong because of the big elephant deals. you see a lot of activity of breaking up big companies because it's sustainment term on investment capital, the bye side activists much more engaged and involved and don't have to buy full companies in order to have an impact on what boards do. you have that healthy pressure out there. mar sha marshall talked about strategic m&a, the private equity guys deals are not as big but still want to do deals so you have a lot of fundamentals that are strong in m&a and it won't be a moment where you wake up. we didn't have the type of collapse you had in the european m&a market last year where you had a systemic going. >> it's monday morning, i want deals to run across the table!

>> we have nothing! >> zippo! >> listen you got the super bowl. >> this isn't going to excite you either. >> most mondays after the super bowl, not a lot of deals announced that day. >> i used to literally have to call people during the super bowl sunday nights because i was tracking deals. >> there were deals? >> absolutely there are. >> that was the dumb money. >> if you don't think a $130. in the metal to mine something exciting? >> can you say metals and mining exciting in the same sentence? ? what tuning is going to drive manufacturing around the world? how about $7 million, mitsui? how about $100 for facebook, it us that get you excited? >> that gets me excited. marshall, thank you for being here. >> good support, marshall.

>> i love your watch. we should show that on camera. what are the stories moving the market today and we'll go behind the lipstick indicators with estee lauder's executive chairman william lauder. uh oh.

should we be letting him p-l-a-y with our t-a-b-l-e-t? [ mom ] i think it's fine. it's the new element from at&t so it's w-a-t-e-r proof. cool. what else does it d-o? it's fast. it's 4g lte. what's l-t-e spell? nothing. w-h-y? hey, can we stop spell talking now? ok. a-y. [ male announcer ] buy a waterproof pantech element for $249.99 and get a 4g burst smartphone free. only from at&t.

let's check out shares of drugmaker eli lilly. it will freeze the pay of most employees this year, a patent on its best selling anti-psychotic

zyprexa drug is coming off patent and others. lazard a net revenue of $452 million, falling below wall street estimates and raising quarterly dividend from 25 po% 20 cents a share. larry is a former lazard man. you can save -- >> we'll be very diplomatic. when we come back, glenn hubbard, mitt romney's economic adviser, will detrukt housideco housing and the jobs market. and treating combination skin, executive chairman william lauder. scoring the super bowl ads, a look at the best, worst and most offensive.

are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule. the first technology of its kind... mom and dad, i have great news. is now providing answers families need. siemens. answers. all in one account. keep watch on the markets. or use our exclusive tools to help find ideas. it's powerful, easy-to-use technology for trading stocks, options, and futures. keep trading whether you're at home, in the office, or on the go. optionsxpress, the broker smart traders deserve. open an account today at optionsxpress.com.

a plan to fix the housing market and fix the economy.

glenn hubbard will tell us why mass refinancing may be the key to the american recovery. the health of the consumer, behind the makeup counter with estee lauder's ceo. >> the giants and the super bowl, which advertiser came out on top? we'll bring you the best, the funniest, the most offensive commercial. the third hour of "squawk box" gets on right now. ♪ i just want to celebrate another day of livin' ♪ ♪ i just want to celebrate another day of life ♪ welcome back to "squawk b " box," i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin and michelle

crew sew-cabrera, and larry grafstein is our guest for today. on friday the dow closing at its highest levels in three and a half years after better than expected numbers on unemployment, 8.3 is nothing to cheer about but better than economi economists had expected for. >> did you think about the, larry, no disciplined true banker would not comment. in our headlines a big week for earnings some key companies will be reporting more than 65 of the s&p 500 are going to report quarterly results. coca-cola, disney, cisco and pepsi. in other news facebook said to address a big area of concern, the company is going to begin showing advertisements to users on mobile devices before its

ipo, the social networking giant discussed proposals with unidentified advertising agencies, featured stories seen by users on the site. the move addresses the untapped facebook mobile users a key area of growth in the expanding south american markets and i would think markets across the world who use mobile devices and currently see no advertisements. >> the reason you say that about latin america is the pervasive use of the internet is dominated by phones so you're getting it on your phone primarily. >> do you get the margin of the news feed? >> it's almost smaller, don't have as much real estate, et cetera. it happens with the pizza ads, you order pizza online or a phone. you spend more from a desktop or a phone. >> you can bet the valuation of

facebook is guaranteeing they are going to find a way. >> it will be a straight line. are you a buyer of that ipo? >> i think facebook is an amazing company and what it really is a platform so it's going to be a great company, it's going to face lots of competition from the likes of google and apple rp. >> do you dcf models, you're an evaluation guy. >> you want to look at realistic projections. there's a lot of excitement. >> 75 or 100? >> if it were me -- >> or 50. >> from a fundamental perspective closer to the lower end of that range which is probably why it came out with that but there will be a lot of excitement around the ipo. we'll see what happens. romania's prime minister resigning after weeks of nationwide protests against austerity measures. he slashed public salaries by a

quarter and raised sales tax, to complete a bailout deal. 53% in a poll said the euro would be better off if athens left it. anything after greece after months and months of torturous negotiations the european commission says athens has gob beyond the deadline for a second bailout package, we think we're talk about 130 bureaus but could be more. julia chatterley joins us from athens with the latest. >> reporter: thanks, michelle. absolutely, what you said from the eu commission, the pressure continues to mount on greek officials to find a solution to these reform measures. at the same time we've had the prime minister asking the finance ministry for a report on what a default would mean for the country so he can present

that to voters to show them how essential a solution here is, an agreement on the reform measures and that's very important because he's not openly discussed the idea of a default in greece before now. at the same time the two largest unions have confirmed that they are going to be on strike from midnight tonight. there's also going to be a rally tomorrow at 11:00 a.m., athens time. they represent around 50% here of the working population, though the concern from people that i'm speaking to you here is whether if the troika force a decision from the greek coalition party today we could see an escalation in the tensions or the demonstrations that we're expecting tomorrow. now timing is key, not just about the 20th of march bond redemption due but anything through the next two days has to pass through parliament before or on the 16th of february, the

floating deadline from when the first draft of the psi or the bond writedowns has to be confirmed. i can't talk about timing without mentioning the fact we could have elections in greece as early as april. that means the individual coalition party members have to appear on the surface to reelectric tant to pass any additional austerity measures. we continue to watch this afternoon's meeting between the coalition members in athens, from a windy athens, back to you. >> julia, thank you very much. we'll check back in with you again later this morning. president obama pitching a plan to help homeowners make payment on underwater mortgages. glenn hubbard is a top adviser to gop hopeful mitt romney. dean hubbard joins us now. glenn good morning to you. >> good morning. >> this was thrown out in the president's sachb address. tell us how you would see this

working. paying off the principle kicked off the tea party in the country. how would it work? >> the idea my colleague chris mayer and i suggested we use the gses to refinance gse mortgages. we own the risk of that as taxpayers, guaranteed in 2008 and it would enable a large tax cut. unfortunately that's not really what the president proposed. what he proposed was taking on new risk on the government's ballot sheet and knows that's a congressional nonstarter. it's a missed opportunity. >> is it your plan to get the loans get refinanced at lower rates? >> as long as you're current in your mortgage, your principal residence and we have a gse order, the taxpayer is on the risk, yes you could refinance, the president has not been able to rein in the gses who put road

block after road block in the household's way. >> the idea of paying down principle, you think that's a a bad path to start town? >> i think it's a dicier path to start down because refinancing you're just saying let's make the market work as it would in normal times guaranteeing the risk. the principle reduction is tearing up contracts. i think that's dangerous unless it's voluntary. >> we've had a guest on a lot, doug dushield. one of the reasons you haven't been able to get people is that the underwritering are getting penalized if the loan fails, something that didn't happen before. they're putting proper incentive in place to prevent a future crisis but prevents recovery in this crisis. what do you do about that? >> the gses have raised a lot of fees, taken action to make refinancing difficult. we have the issues with

underrequires, with exception and warranties, lots of things, but suffice it to say if the administration wanted this to happen it would make it happen. it's just not serious. >> you think it's fannie and freddie who are putting up the road blocks to keep people from getting refinancing? >> most certainly. if the administration wanted to do this for gfc programs. >> that's like 90%. >> can't the president effectively do this if he wants to? >> of course he can. that's why i stated it's a lack of commitment from the administration. >> dean hubbard a more fundamental for you, how do you feel about the privatization of fannie and freddie? smart friends in washington are thinking there ought to be bipartisan consensus at some stage the government identifies the problem in the housing crisis in wall street which went

into the economy. we talk about temporary measures, responses very important but what about the basic policy of having fannie and freddie be, remain to be publicly owned almost like a collateral source of funding for homeowners of the sort you're suggesting? >> it's a great question and my question, there's no question we should be wounding down the gses. one is a guarantee function and the other is a portfolios. the gses should be wound down. if for some reason the interim guarantee is needed question talk about how to price those. the taxpayers should not be on the hook as they have in the past. this has been a problem for both parties and we need bipartisan support to get rid of they will. >> how do you feel about for example the mortgage interest deduction, another distortion of the housing market. we have neighbors to the north in canada that don't really require interest deductibility of mortgage to have a normal

housing market, they don't have a fannie and freddie, although they have some support for housing but much more muted than we have here and given the magnitude of the distortions that have been caused, i mean don't you think it's about time people began to address some of these more basic issues? >> there's no question we've been misallocating capital away from productive business capital t raises our living standards and wages toward housing and the issue is how to change that, that's about tax reform, gse reform, we can do it gradually. >> if you start talking about taking away the mortgage interest deduction, at the same time -- >> in an election year? >> in an election year, at the same time you're having so much trouble when you're looking at capital gains at 15% and how that lets the most wealthy people in the country pay a smaller tax rate on than people at the bottom, good luck with that. >> first of all it disproportionately benefits the

wealthy. >> there has been an idea to cap it. >> you could have a tax reform that brought down marginal rates and scaled down tax deductions. >> you wouldn't do it in a year, but over ten years. >>er that, gradual part of tax reform and i hope that will certainly be a central part of the debate this fall. >> we were having a serious discussion about the causes and privatization of fannie and fredd freddie, a big report came out said we needed to move away from government support and that disappeared and we're tinkering on how to get people an are a a refinance. >> certainly you don't want to do these things suddenly but these are the types of things you can do over time. we have to engage on this and address directly some of the

policy issues. >> none of this is going to get addressed in the election year and my hope is to get it addressed in 2013. >> governor romney put out principles for gse reform. the president keeps sitting on his own treasury department's options. >> glenn is it really that easy'edadministration chose tomorrow they can say make people whose mortgages you already own, get refinanced what the current going rate is, maybe a 6% or 8% mortgage right now, you turn around and say you want them to have 4.5 and it could happen that way? >> through the fhfa, yes. i don't think the administration is serious about it nor is it serious about the longer term critical issue, how do we wind these down? >> on the short term issue i agree with you, it makes great sense. what is the downside? who loses out in this? i'm having trouble putting it back to that.

>> is it the banks when do you the refi you lose out on the revenue? >> let's look at the groups. homeowners are better off refinancing at lower rates. the taxpayers are mildly better off, no worse off from credit risk and if you refinance at credit rates the faults are less likely. the losers are high coupon nbs because those who lose in the wake of refinancing but they got paid a risk premium in normal times refinancing would have occurred. >> i say one more thing about mortgage backed securities and the ability to prepay and refinance is not widely shared across western developed economies and it's yet another thing that has distorted the housing market over time, and so when you put together and when you talk about how difficult to value mortgage backed security or if that's the reason over time. >> you're talking about relief

to homeowners very quickly. >> tens of millions of homeowners and the point he made about mortgages is a good one. cohave simple long-term no prepayment mortgages for most parent would be a great plan. coming up, more from larry grafstein. first, high stakes advertising. which xlerials generated the most buzz. my vote is that fiat ad. hopefully we'll be able to show it. we'll watch it after the break. ♪ [ male announcer ] offering four distinct driving modes and lexus' dynamic handling, the next generation of lexus will not be contained. the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back.

♪ so -- tell me again what happened. i was downstairs making coffee, and we heard it.ng back. it just came crashing through the roof, out of nowhere. what is it? it's our ira. any idea what coulda caused this? maybe. i just sorta threw a little money here, a little money there. and i loaded up on something my dentist told me was hot. yeah. ♪

welcome back to "squawk box" on this post super bowl monday. the markets looking down after that big giants win. dow jones opens up about 54 points lower. s&p 500 off about seven points and the nasdaq would be off about 11 points, not the best way to start the week. the new york giants were the big winners on the field last night but which advertisers generated the most buzz and which ones fell flat? julia boorstin joins us with the data, i'm still hoping, julia,

as part of this package you're putting together we'll have a brief flimglimpse of the fiat ar the ratings. >> i can't help you with that, maybe the control room can. did they make consumers want to go out and spend money? cnbc partnered with collective intellect to put together a super bowl sunday ad tracker, goes through 11 million blogs and tweets across the web and this tracker measures what they call purchase intent, consumers saying they want to buy the advertised product. look at the top five most effective ads in terms of purchase intent. in the fifth spot, samsung with the tablet, audi, coca-cola,

m&m's and number one, chevrolet, drawing all online about purchase intent. spending $30.5 million doesn't make consumers happy. some drew a rave of tweets how offensive they were. in the fifth spot m&m's, some find a naked m&m offputting, then budweiser, people saying there wasn't enough diversity among people drinking bud in the ad and chevrolet offended people with its apocalypse ad that took a swipe at ford and number two, teleflora ad too racy for some and number one godaddy.com with its pink painted naked ladies. go dady was the most offensive by a landslide, generated all comments about offensive.

they didn't get to work but it triggered a small number of people not a lot. for more ad tracker, including what threw buzz for being the funniest ad go to cnbc.com. becky? >> wow. thank you, julia. appreciate it. i did not find the godaddy ad to be that offensive or racy compared to -- >> the fiat ad. >> the fiat ad. i may want to go out and buy a fiat. >> it was super cute. >> it was. this is a good excuse to show the add. >> the moment with foam is questionable for the family tv. >> not sure we have enough time to show but now, yeah, we don't need volume really for this point. >> for the moment. she only speaks italian. >> she only speaks italian. >> the language of love. >> we probably have to go. you didn't get a chance to see

this. there's the foam. yeah. >> it just -- >> got it, all right. >> there's something about it. who knows. >> all right, with enwe come back, yeah we're going to have more of today's top stories, too. still ahead, we will go behind the makeup count we are executive chairman william lauder. right now check out boeing shares, the dow component under a little bit of pressure this morning, after it discovered a problem related to the aft fu fuselage of the 787 dreamliner planes. phil lebeau explained the production number is the key one, trying to get to ten planes a month. the question is will this slow them down. "squawk box" will be right back. oh!

[ baby crying ] ♪ what started as a whisper ♪ every day, millions of people choose to do the right thing. ♪ slowly turned to a scream ♪ there's an insurance company that does that, too. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? ♪ amen, omen [ horn honks ] hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important. well, both are important. let's be clear. they are but this is important too. [ man ] the receivables. [ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better

for xerox to help manage their finance processing. so they can focus on keeping the world moving. with xerox, you're ready for real business. without the stuff that we make here, you wouldn't be able to walk in your house and flip on your lights. [ brad ] at ge we build turbines that power the world. they go into power plants which take some form of energy, harness it, and turn it into more efficient electricity. [ ron ] when i was a kid i wanted to work with my hands, that was my thing. i really enjoy building turbines. it's nice to know that what you're building is gonna do something for the world. when people think of ge, they typically don't think about beer. a lot of people may not realize that the power needed to keep their budweiser cold and even to make their beer comes from turbines made right here. wait, so you guys make the beer? no, we make the power that makes the beer. so without you there'd be no bud? that's right. well, we like you. [ laughter ] ♪

happy monday morning. welcome back. you'll see red arrows for the futures this morning, this comes after five strong weeks for the markets and on friday the dow actually closing the day at 3 1/2 year highs. this morning a little bit of giveback, dow futures down 54 points, the s&p down by seven, as we continue to get headlines out of greece indicating that there is no deal yet. we're also watching shares of humana this morning, the health

insurer raised forecast for 2012 by ten cents a share to a range of $7.50 to $7.70 a share, still well below what the street was looking for, $7.99, you see the pressure that's putting on the shares. hasbro reporting a profit of $1.06 a share, one cent better than the street had been expecting. sales were on the light side. the company raising its quarterly dividend by 20% to 36 cents. andrew? coming up we'll give you a guide to the trading week ahead. we'll head to chicago next for a look at what traders are watching. "squawk box" coming back with that and a lot, lot more. on december 21st, polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space, which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd and you still need to retire,

td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? laces? really? slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] now there's a mileage card that offers special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? ♪ [ male announcer ] the new united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in. what ? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it ? hello ? hello ?!

if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello ? ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense.

welcome back to "squawk box." let's catch you up with some of the earnings reports. sysco, reported sales exceeding street forecasts, one item, food cost inflation amounted to 6.8% over a year earlier, that's a big move. >> yep. >> hca holdings a winner in

premarket trading, the earnings report was mixed but the crowd pleaser is the $2 per share special dividend payable as of february 16th. let's get a check on the market. scott nations of nations share is standing by at the kr, me in chicago and steve liesman joins us on the set. scott is all of the economic news we've gotten in the u.s. offsetting europe? >> i thought the vix was interesting on friday afternoon, you would expect the vix to continue to settle on a friday afternoon like that but it didn't. it got below 17 and around noon in chicago it started to rally. everybody said things are good but options are cheap. i can buy protection relatively cheaply and you know what? if that protection never pays off, that's not the worst thing in the world so complacent, no. confident, i think fairly so. >> that's why it's insurance.

>> scott, you do that in a way that makes it so you don't have to sell to lock in profits. you can sit there and hold onto your winners rather than sell them and they get the downside protection? >> that's right. you can sleep at night knowing you have some protection. buying puts is expensive protection but you know sometimes being able to sleep at night is valuable. >> i still go back to the ltro, steve. >> true. >> the three-year loan that to me took a lehman, a bank that couldn't open off the table. >> qe by another name is the way i think about it. >> for the ltro. is this why we've got, we're looking at greece falling apart. >> spanish ten years or italian ten years looks like it's powerful. the market came in now, what's interesting about it is, it's not the most efficient way to do what they want done. they want to put money into the system and have banks buy

sovereign debt. there's a bit of a leakage. so it's not as effective as qe if your purpose is driving down sovereign debt yields. >> can i push back, i think the european central bank wanted to take a lehman out of the equation, wanted to prevent us waking up one morning and all about so you didn't find out a bank could not open. >> i don't agree, i think it was a double motivation, with sun to bring down the sovereign yields and other was to prevent the, and i don't know which order. >> i add a cautionary note. it's a great move i think in europe but the key sort of central problem is the capital level of the banks, and there's some skepticism. >> the low level. >> you read in "the financial times" there's some questions as to the capital is doing enough, and i think it's one thing to

funnel money to the banks in europe which are a bigger piece of the credit markets on a relative basis than the bonds markets are compared to here. you need the strong banks in those countries and if you recapitalize on that that's important. >> larry, i seeing as i'm arguing with michelle i might as well argue with you, too. >> you can recapitalize them. >> why are we worried about capital? in part for the psychological reason, what if capital is seen as being too low and they can't raise lick wquiliquidity. the ecb solved the second order effect of liquidity through the ltro. i offer that the capital problem in the face of one and now another coming massive ltro is less of an ush ubecauissue beca liquidity rejection. >> that's why we're worried about capital because of leverage. not that the european banks are not doing a good job managing

treea a triage coming out of the crisis. if you create capital you can argue how much is enough but there's a general understanding that european banks ought to have more capital. >> it's a today problem if they're worried about liquidity. we have time to figure this out if they're not. >> that's why the three-year period was an intelligent move. i'm saying the underlying issue has to be addressed. >> in some way scott it set up the same situation here the legislators were saying lend more and the regulators are saying no you can't lend more. you get the same die nappic going on in europe, raise more capital right into which would be more recessionary. scott, a lot of guys are watching gold pull back dramatically today as the risk on/risk off goes today. what are you watching? >> you have to watch yields. if the ten-year yield can get significantly above 2% that tells you all you need to know

and if that ad -- >> what does that tell us the xh he is getting people, people are less worried, what does it tell us? >> everybody feels much, much, much better and the old song, better being worried about the return of their capital, no the on their capital is the issue. some of the sickest banks, b of a and citigroup, i think it's also fascinating, citigroup announced today they are the first non-asian bank to issue credit cards in china. the size of that market is just mind-boggling, 1.5 billion people and citi is the first non-asian bank to do it. it's great news for all of those banks that are the sickest over here. >> scott just getting back to gold for a second, is this a pure function of a reduction in the probability of qe and that that's what gold is trading on here in. >> undeniably, absolutely and undeniably. gold is broken from its

historical value as a risk asset that is we're going to hedge some of our risk in equities buying gold. that relationship is nothing but a training vehicle for people who believe qe3 is next. >> and undermine the value of the dollar. i don't know what the possibility is out in the market. we'll do a cnbc fed survey shortly. my guess is 4, 46, even in the outlook for additional qe in the next 12 months. my guess is it's come down quite a bit. i would guess it's somewhere in the 25% range or the 30% range, and that most of those people are going to qualify and say if europe happens, the fed will do qe. but i don't know how much it bothers the equity market. that's what's hard to figure out. you're the one who made the point earlier you're trading in qe for growth ostensibly. >> scott good to see you this

morning. thank you. thank you, steve. catch scott on fridays in "options action." coming up, we're going to talk the business of beauty, estee lauder executive chairman william lauder on the way to the "squawk" set. i don't know if i should mention this but i use clinique moisturizer for men. the unemployment rate 8.3%. >> strong numbers like this, continuing decline in the unemployment rate, how solid is a late 2014 promise from the fed? >> we were buying immediately in the banks, these banks jumped in the premarket, continued to move higher. >> the nasdaq sitting at an 11-year high. >> that helped the dow close at its highest level in flthree ana half years.

tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so, i want to trade at a place that really gets who i am tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and what i need.

tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and still gives me a great price. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, you get everything you need tdd# 1-800-345-2550 to trade your way. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 all for $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 here, it's all about trading. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 start trading with the intuitive streetsmart edge platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and use its tools like strategy builder to screen for stocks, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 find opportunities faster and compare your strategies tdd# 1-800-345-2550 against other traders. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, you also have the resources to research and trade tdd# 1-800-345-2550 across 30 countries with more than 40 stock exchanges tdd# 1-800-345-2550 around the globe. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 plus, talk strategy with dedicated trading specialists. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 attend workshops and webinars. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and get up and running faster with a personalized introduction tdd# 1-800-345-2550 to all that schwab offers. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 get it all for a great price of $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 this... this is how i like to trade ! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up to 6 months commission-free. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 call 1-877-412-6113. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 talk to chuck today.

welcome back to "squawk box" on this post super bowl monday. we're going behind the beauty counter, william lauder, executive chairman of estee lauder action we're talk being men's moisturizers during the commercial break. >> i use about three or four of my brands, joe malone, aveda, clinique, lab series. >> is lab series -- >> lab series is ours as well.

it's $190 for a magnificent one ounce jar of cream. >> your sales were up yet you're forecasting a tougher third quarter. what's going on? >> i anumber of things. part of the conversation you've been having all morning long weakness in europe from the consumer standpoint. secondly we are somewhat currency sensitive and as the euro gets weaker, our business just from the conversion basis -- >> you're spending more money on advertising. >> a lot of advertising planned in the third and fourth quarter and at locations of the spends work last year we spent more in the fourth quarter. this year that heavy spend is coming earlier in the third quarter. >> that surprised investor. why now? >> march is a bigger retail period of time than april, may, june so we're spending when the consumers are more likely to be shopping. >> particular to makeup, people

buy more makeup in march? >> it's the rhythm of the retail calendar. if you look at the with a efz in each half of the year, first half, second half of the year, march is the biggest wave in the january to june period of time, and november/december is the biggest wave in the second half of the year, from an advertising voice standpoint you put a lot of voice into september/october, building to christmas whereas the voice in the first half of the year builds into the march, april period. >> your stock looked like it was going to open down $54. it steadily built throughout the course of the day friday. what did investors hear what they liked better than the initial blush on the numbers? >> it's my understanding the street had an expectation for to us underpromise and overdeliver and they were counting on that. when they heard us being a little more cautious about the remainder of the year, taking their calculations into account they were pulling us back perhaps overcorrecting to are

what we were really doing and as they listened to and if you will, plugged their numbers into what we said we were going to do, they came back to realize, one, there was probably an overreaction i believe and secondly, we're pretty good at delivering what we say we're going to do on and knowing pretty much what's going to happen barring outside activity. >> you painted a bearish scenario in europe. talk about europe for a second. >> let's break europe. uk for us is not europe. it is technically part of the u but u can, is separate. uk demand is somewhat weak. france is okay. germany is okay, scandinavia is okay. spain is weak. italy is weak. we know enough about greece to know greece is not okay. >> do you have a business in greece? >> we had a nice share in greece unfortunately that is a share of a shrinking pie and it's very concerning. spain is outside of the uk spain is our largest market. >> china, what's going on in

china? >> demand for our product is still huge, demand is strong in china. the consumer has a voracious appetite for our category of product. >> do you feel any pullback at all? there's so much concern what's going on in the economy there. >> there's a 30% luxury tax on our products in china, there's perfect pricing information for the consumer in china, through the internet and she knows what the price is in hong kong, taiwan, travel retail and north america and there's a long chinese diaspara doing shopping for the chinese consumer outside of china. >> is there a 30% tax on your products? zblim ported luxury product. >> i'm assuming you have to be in china because people use it as a browsing library. >> we not only have to be in china, we have a meanful business because 30% of a relatively low price is a barrier to some, but, and an

opportunity for some to fill the gap but plenty of consumers buying our product in a meani meaningful way in china. >> what is your best selling product out of all of your lines, women buy more what? >> best selling single one product would be mack eye shadow, more than 100 something shades, best selling single treatment product is the estee lauder brand advanced night repair. >> advanced night repair. >> just unit or dollar volume. >> dollar volume. >> let me ask you this, you mentioned that you're incredibly sensitive to the euro and as the euro gets weaker, that has a big impact but we saw the euro at 126 and seen it come back closer to 131 and some think it could go up from there. if that happens what does that do to your business? >> we're 64%, 65% non-dollar denominated. take china, which is fixed. >> do you hedge currency?

>> only hedge nontransactions, no speculation whatsoever, nontransactions and flows based on, that's predominantly euro based. many of our asian suppliers are dollar denominated so from the cost structure, it's really that we have a large manufacturing base in the uk which we pound based as well as in europe which is euro based but if you add up the 20 something plus different units of business we do in europe that has the biggest impact because the relative stability of our business is in the other part of the world so it is not xhod advertised but the nature of the translation of our business. on a constant currency basis we see issues with consumer demand in certain parts of europe. there's a pullback in consumer confidence. we're not seeing the pullback in confidence in north america. our business in north america is strong and stronger now than in many years, a lot of that has to

do with the execution between ourselves and retail partners. understanding her and communicating with her. >> you keep calling her a woman and you know we're all wearing your stuff. >> i know you are all wearing it but honestly 95% plus of our consumers who put their hand in the pocket and take it out are women. >> i know, i know, william lauder thank you for being here this morning. appreciate it very much. >> coming up we'll head to the new york stock exchange. "squawk box" will be right back. the stock of the day is coming up. uh oh. should we be letting him p-l-a-y with our t-a-b-l-e-t? [ mom ] i think it's fine. it's the new element from at&t so it's w-a-t-e-r proof. cool. what else does it d-o? it's fast. it's 4g lte. what's l-t-e spell? nothing. w-h-y?

hey, can we stop spell talking now? ok. a-y. [ male announcer ] buy a waterproof pantech element for $249.99 and get a 4g burst smartphone free. only from at&t. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. hyundai genesis. in a new, faster-acting formula.

zero-to-sixty in less time than a porsche panamera s. the 429 horsepower genesis r-spec. from hyundai.

welcome back to "squawk box." the s&p would open lower by 7 1/2. and the dow jones lower by nearly 60. the nasdaq lower by 12 1/2. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. karl, melissa and jim join us now. what are you watching out for now? >> well, obviously, operating on very little sleep. not only --

>> yeah, my heart bleeds for you. >> then i couldn't fall asleep after the game because it was too exciting. >> very exciting game. >> could have gone either way. we'll talk about that, the ads. big day for chrysler. clint eastwood is blowing up on twitter. we'll ask michelle if the momentum we got from friday and over the last few weeks is enough to get through greece. >> one of the things apropos of the eastwood ad, the real great ads, volkswagen and chrysler, these are subtle nontradeable, they're nontradeable. meanwhile, ford has not done that well in this country. gm, i know the apocalyptic ad, gm doesn't report yet and that would be a surprise if they did. so trading off these is difficult, but bud, pepsi, i was going do a big piece on how to trade the super bowl ads. but you have to make money of it. >> pepsi was very aggressive

this time around. all of this, all of this, all of the lack of news out of greece, the back drop is the s&p has its best start in 25 years. >> right. >> so the question now is do we back in fill as a lot are predicting at this point, or do we have enough to continue with the -- >> well, we are at a big level. >> i mean, are the markets too complacent about greece? >> well, look, when something goes on this long it tends to be in the market. goldman has a note about this too, people are getting more and more comfortable with europe. we're more and more comfortable with their stalling. more and more comfortable with the idea with they're frankly not as important to the markets as they once were. >> can you say we're complacent if the p.e. is 14 at the end of 2009, it is 24, we have doubled since the march low. >> look forward to it, guys.

see you in a few minutes on "squawk on the street." coming up, we'll get some final moments from harry rothsteen and a couple of surprises for you after the break. tomorrow -- our guest host will be casablanca company founder. and the master of the market. tune in tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. see who made the cut. ttrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. my dad and grandfather spent their whole careers here.

[ charlie ] we're the heartbeat of this place, the people on the line. we take pride in what we do. when that refrigerator ships out the door, it's us that work out here. [ michael ] we're on the forefront of revitalizing manufacturing. we're proving that it can be done here, and it can be done well. [ ilona ] i come to ge after the plant i was working at closed after 33 years. ge's giving me the chance to start back over. [ cindy ] there's construction workers everywhere. so what does that mean? it means work. it means work for more people. [ brian ] there's a bright future here, and there's a chance to get on the ground floor of something big, something that will bring us back. not only this company, but this country. ♪

the stock of the day, restaurant operator ocharlie's is being acquired in a relatively small deal of $221 million. or $9.95 a share. 42% premium. what makes this interesting is the acquirer, title insurer fidelity. they buy minority stakes in companies related to the primary business. too small for you, $221 million. >> you wanted your deal. >> i wanted my deal. verizon and coin star's red box unit forming a new video streaming joint venture. it is designed to compete with netflix. it will roll out the service in the second half of the year.

let's get some parting shots from larry rat steen. and larry -- >> the website, tnr.com. >> why don't we talk a little about the m & a outlook out there. we have touched on it today. what aren't we seeing more big deals right now? >> well, let's talk first about the eurozone. considering the euro is pretty strong there's not a lot of eurozone interu.s. activity and i think that's caution on the part of them and they need to protect their working capital and balance sheet. i think last week, bosh acquired a company. conversely to look at europe it's an opportunity, you do have to have to have a certain amount of courage in the boardroom to

say, gee, let's bet that everything is okay in europe, it is still -- >> in europe there's this worry, oh, the americans are going to come in and buy everything up on the cheap. the chinese are going to buy everything on the cheap. >> yeah. no, i don't think a wave is imminent. let's put it that way. but fundamentally as people will release the cash that's on their balance sheet. >> can we talk about a potential deal about your own deal, some news a couple of weeks ago that it may be up for sale or looking for investor, what's happening? >> two things that are exciting. first of all, we have the centennial of the magazine in 2014. so we're planning for that ahead of time. then the 2012 election, we're known for political coverage over the years. so we have had some interest from a couple of people, one corporate, a couple of individuals. hopefully we'll partner with them and take the -- take it to the next level because our current mantra is too small to fail.

our literary editor coined that. i think there's potential to expand it. >> here's what i don't understand, new republic is liberal, you want to private fannie and freddie. >> let's take a step back and look at that. one of the things that both democrats and republicans agreed on before the housing crisis was that we should get more ownership into lower income housing. that was bipartisanship. obviously that led to a lot of problems because things got skewed. i think for the same reason there ought to be bipartisan agreement, republicans ought to want to privatize fannie and freddie and democrats ought want to spend money on the right types of priorities. we have to have entitlement and tax reform in this country. we punted everything until after 2012. we know what we need to do. if we can get the off balance sheet liabilities safely away, i think it would be very positive