if you are at home on the couch, what excuse did you use? closing bell coming up next. hope to see you at 2 p.m. tomorrow. today on "the closing bell," europe's debt crisis, saber rattling in iran, the future of financials, the next big investment, those are the issues we will focus on with one of the world's most noted investors, saudi prince alwaleed bin tallal. find out where he is making his bets. this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. happy super bowl monday. i'm maria bart roam moment. >> stocks holding onto modest declines as greece yet again continues to wrangle over details of the debt restructuring deal.

have that in a moment. today comes a pull back after dow hate 3 1/2-year high on friday. stocks are still up nearly 20% since the october 9 lows. meantime, health care stocks have been lower on the backs of a big decline in shares of pharmaceutical men fitsed meco health solutions, investors getting spooked the company could face potential disruptions to its deal to buy express scripts. that story ahead this hour on "closing bell." let's look where we stand approaching the final stretch going into the final hour on a monday afternoon on wall street. dow jones down a fraction, 34 points lower 12,828. technology down a fraction again today, has the nasdaq down a quarter of a percent, eight points lower, money consistently moving into tech, s & p down two points, fractional loss, 1432, bill. >> bob pisani joins us to go over what trade verse been talking about today. greece is on the agenda again.

>> stop me if you have heard this before. we are close to a deal. all right, not even -- nobody even laughs anymore. >> no, not funny. >> endless at this point. but there is signs of a slow den ech dene there were public sector job come cutts coming through, we don't know when. don't know if there will be pension cuts or other cuts. the euro did briefly move on the head lines in the middle of the day, didn't move the stock market much but moved the euro up a little bit. one little sign of this what might be going on, the prime minister of romania resigned today. the whole romanian government collapsed today the romanians, talking about the romanians. why? because of austerity. another european union leader lost his job.

imf loan 2009, heavy austerity program imposed on them. same situation as greece, now the government collapsed over a whole flurry of anti-austerity measures going on. an indication the people don't want it and protesting heavily about it. >> what is the alternative? i get the people don't want it, but the altern stiff worse. >> walking away. >> you can't hand out what you don't have anymore. >> greece, even more complicated. my mother hayden this discussion over the weekend. she recognized this. she said in the united states, if you were to get the democrats and republicans three months before a presidential election, do you think you could get them to agree if we were getting a loan from the imf and the imf were to say we want you to cut social security, we want you to cut the pensions that are out there and we want you to agree to fire thousands of workers from the public sector -- >> or? >> do you think the democrats and republicans would say -- >> or? >> let's do it? >> or walk away. >> what's the alternative? >> walk away. >> somebody would stake that

out. >> on thursday -- >> foreign affairs is calling her now. i want you to know we are getting earnings out tomorrow, big companies, coke, toyota, a lot of the big companies are going to have very interesting comments, various sectors. talking about the european bank situation in the morning from ubs. a good grouping we will focus on. the movers and shakeners of the day in a market fractionally moving for the averages. mary thompson at the cnbc realtime exchange looking that the part of the story. >> hey there, maria. the ongoing greek debt drama is pressuring the markets today. bill mentioned at the top of the show, the dow jones industrial average down .2 of a percent, boeing, a loser, s & p off a tenth, energy the only winning sector in the s & p today, nasdaq down a quarter, the russell down as well off the half a percent. looking at the commodities market today, a stronger dollar earlier that kept pressure on

gold, closing down over $16 the regular session at 17.24 and change an ounce. the dollar was strong, given up the gains against the euro today but continued to have an impact on the energy markets today, with crude oil finishing lower as well today, 97 and change that is the after hours session, it was closed a little bit lower on that meanwhile because, again, there are concerns about the ongoing greek debt drama, that benefited the bond market, ten-year bond, yield pulling back a back at 18995. let take a look at a couple of stocks in the news today. bill mentioned these at the top of the shows as well, express scripts and medco, under pressure because of a reuters report that raised concerns about the deal between these two, express scripts buying the rival, pharmacy benefits manager for $29 billion. another consumer group joined in calling to have this deal blocked. what is making investors nervous, a line in the story

noting the ftc wants to block the deal but make sure it has enough evidence to do so so it can win in court. both of the stocks down 4 and 6 1/2% respectively. benefiting walgreen up, wall green's pharmacy business would be hurt if the deal between medco and express scripts went through. bill, back to you. >> thank you. so sorry about that little football game yesterday. >> you had to mention it, didn't you, bill? >> was that out loud? >> you were so aggressive on the field. >> maria, if it was the giants, you could be aggressive, too. >> good sport coming to work today. how productive are you. >> i didn't want to be unproductive. i think the giants fans are not productive today because they were celebrating late in the streets. >> has been rather quiet here. >> tom brady is still great, mary. >> he is. he is, maria. >> i have no opinion. in today's -- thank you, mary. today's closing bell exchange we

started another week without a deal on greece. elsewhere, this deadline for u.s. state officials to take a settlement deal on robo-signings with some of the nation's biggest banks that deadline is today, we have our real estate reporter diana olick in washington following that story for us and simon hobbs is back at headquarters tracking everything greek in the markets and simon, i am told now that the eu officials really, really, really mean it this time when they say the greeks had better get their act together, yes? >> is there a lot of exasperation, i think it is really very clear. everybody is exasperated by the damn story, but if you look, for example, what is coming out of angela merkel today, she met the french president nicolas sarkozy in france, she was quite clear, time is running out, couldn't understand why they didn't have the delay and indeed, they were even suggesting now perhaps the greeks should put the money they would have to repay their debts into some sort of he is xroerk the degree which they don't trust them. we did think, since we have got this on the screen, tell you, we

have got in the five hours of talks between the three parties on the ground in greece they moved toward each of those items that you three is and if we look at how some of the banks have performed today, they rallied very strongly in athens on the expectation now the, the hope they might be recapitalkacapita rather than nationalized there is a huge amount of frustration the delay continues, political parties cannot come together ahead of the april election and speak in a unified way. so they meet again tomorrow but they meet in a context where both of the major umbrella groups for both the private sec toorptd public sector labor unions are forecasting or are intending to hold a national strike, a general strike, so the tension, guys, will be high tomorrow. back to you. >> i cannot believe there is any sand left in that hourglass, just amazing. diana, fill us in, what's at stake here who is likely to get what when all is said an done?

>> the big question, when is it gonna happen? greece first or the ag's settlement over robo-signing foreclosures? the deadline supposedly for the ags to sign onto the deal is today, it was friday, then pushed back. the big question mark, of course is california. there have been reports over the weekend they were coming back to the table. delaware, new york, massachusetts, nevada, all in play. the question is though, once this deal gets done, we want to look at who gets what and that is the biggest thing that's up in the air. $25 billion is what's been widely reported. $17 billion would go toward principal reduction but when you run the numbers on that that is about 850,000 borrowers would get an average of $20,000 reductions in the principal on their mortgage. so debt forgiveness on that one. then you have $3 billion going toward people who have already been through the foreclosure process but this would be in the form of restitution and they would each get about $1500 and you are looking at 2 million borrowers there, 2.85 million

people would get something out of this deal and the banks and the markets, of course, would get the knowledge that a deal had been struck and therefore, you don't have all this uncertainty but again, you have got tons of lawsuits we saw coming out on friday, the new york attorney general, there are other lawsuits from the fhfa against the banks. the banks are facial an awful lot in front of them besides just this, again, when you think about the 2.85 million borrowers who could get something out of this particular settlement deal with the servicers, think about it 4 million borrowers lost their homes, 6 million bow roars are late on their payments now or are in the foreclosure process and 11 million american borrowers are under water on their mortgages. perspective there. >> big number there is. thank you, folks, we will see who has the better settlement first, coming up here. the final stretch for a monday afternoon, volume deadly on wall street, big movers when you look at individual names, 50 minutes until the closing bell sounds and the dow jones industrial average down 30 points. >> telling you it is the new normal, new normal on volume.

prices are hovering around $100 a barrel, $97 now. will escalating tensions with iran send prices higher? that is next. >> later, stay with us own the story, find out why prince al wa lead bin talal does not think the strait of hormuz will be closed and why the u.s. should be engaged in negotiations with iran now. >> look forward to his insights. and yum brands after the top of the hour. and the heat map, how to is shaping up with 45 minutes to go in the trading session. watching "the closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. ♪ oh! [ baby crying ] ♪ what started as a whisper ♪

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welcome back to closing bell. i'm darren rolf. the numbers have just come in for tv viewership at super bowl xlvi. nielson saying, nbc confirming that super bowl xlvi is the most watched television show in u.s. history, with 111.3 million viewers. fen, that is roughly a third --

a little bit more than a third of the country, topping last year's super bowl, which had 111 million viewers. it was also the most watched halftime show ever with madonna, which makes sense it is 14% higher rating than the last giants/patriots super bowl in 2008. and it is actually now, just in terms of rating, remember, a lot more people in this country now, it is the sixth highest rated super bowl. only in the -- the only nonsports highest rated snows the top five is the "m.a.s.h." finally. now, sharon epperson at the my next. a lot of giddy trade openers the floor after the giants win yesterday but focus on what is going on in greece and that is what has impacted gold prices today. saw gold prices tacking very well what the euro has done and in light of the fact that there's a great deal of concern still about a possible greek default, we are looking at lower gold prices for the moment.

but the chief global strategist at city index said you should pay attention to the fed affect, because that is what has influenced gold prices this year, taking them up 10% year-to-date it contributes to the big jump january 25th with fomc announcement through 2014 and bernanke speech with the high of the session. all of the central bank decisions coming up this week, a lot of interest on what they are going to say and the impact that will have on the gold market. >> we will be watching, sharon, thank you so much. how much more stress can iran put on the oil market, and how should investors be contemplating the next move is inside threats of kyle cooper, at iaf advisers, good to have you on the program, kyle. >> good afternoon. how are you doing? >> you have got to happhandicaps going on in iran what is the likely scenario the market is expecting in terms of what happens next in iran in terms of

shutting off the sun ply of oil or not? >> they don't have the refineries to turn it into the usable product every dpachlt they were to disrupt oil exports out of the strait of hormuz there could be a went decrease in any of their imports of gasoline. iran would run out of gasoline way, way before the rest of the world would run out of oil. >> do you think that is priced into the market now with oil where it is and gas where it is? >> yeah, i think that clearly there is a risk premium, make no mistake, any attempt by iran to disrupt shipping in the strait of hormuz would result in a very significant, 20, 25, maybe even $30 spike but i think for a very short-term duration. i don't think there would be a lot of physical oil disrupted. >> so, from an investment standpoint then, looking at

where the market is and your expectations in terms of what may happen out of that part of the world, you think that oil is trading appropriately then? >> fairly close. i think that the true value is somewhere in the upper 80s to lower 90s, really not that much. clearly, we have taken quite a few dollars out of the market since last week, right at 100 based on the with. ti contract, a little bit of a premium but really not that much. you look at overall growth, even though u.s. petroleum demand is still horrific and levels not seen since the late '90s, the rest of the world outside europe is doing pretty well. i think this is maybe a slight premium, really not that much, but there is a risk clearly of significant short-term price spike if iran tries to do something. >> so, you think the demand is horrific, you just said? tell me about that. yeah. >> in the u.s., clearly, you know, right around 18 million barrel level. for this time of year that is a level that hasn't been seen

since the late '90s, the u.s. consumer has clearly made significant adjustments to their use of petroleum but the u.s. is a declining share of the overall world market, not as important as it used to be but clearly, there is a very apparent and very real effort by u.s. consumer to reduce petroleum consumption, apparent by the demands in the u.s. >> you are looking at nigeria, you think a more important threat to oil production than iran is. real quick? >> yeah, absolutely. the northern part of nigeria is seeing tremendous increase in activity and nigerian crude is higher quality crude, much di more difficult for the world to replace that oil as opposed to the iranian oil, heavy and a lower quality crude. the disruption of iranian exports could more easily be offset by other producers than the higher, sweeter quality. >> kyle, good to have you on the program. thank you so much for your insights. great, thank you. >> we will see you soon, kyle cooper joining us. >> very interested to hear

prince alwaleed's thoughts on iran and the price of oil in the future that is coming up here. the dow down 30 points right now. >> coke and pepsi set to report earnings this week. can the stocks give your portfolio a bit of pop? we will get some insights when we do talking numbers. plus, some new details on how mf global may have lost that $1.2 billion of its customers' money, coming up here. first, a look at the dow and how that heat map is shaping up. see where the winners are.

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welcome back, 35 minutes left in today's trading session for a monday, quick market stat check on the dow. the dow industrials cutting losses today, despite renewed concerns about the debt crisis in greece. right now the industrial average down about 28 points, quarter of a percent, very steady today, volume very steady, under 500 million shares today alone and we only have 35 minutes left for the trading day. get a check of the stocks dragging the dow lower, traveler, boeing, american express, hewlett-packard and united technologies posting losses. bill, 450 billion shares traded

today. over to you. >> a new normal, the old normal as we discussed last week. less than an hour to go traders are watching shares of coca-cola. beverage giant will report earnings before the bell tomorrow morning, you have less than an hour to decide if you want to buy and sell shares ahead of time. what should you do with coke right now? see what the charts say talk numbers on the technical side with carter worth, chief market technician at oppenheimer and the fundamental side, loren torres, covers coke for hsbc securities. what do you think? >> it is a lackluster, a stock that held up well when everything plunged last summer and the same time, has underperformed the market massively. >> classic defensively play. >> there fore, not interesting it is flat, full, no pun intend, leave it alone, not an interesting situation. >> you don't -- you wouldn't buy, wouldn't -- would you sell it? >> as a relative underperformer, gore to the underweight, go for the sale, yeah. >> lauren, do you like it here? you have upgraded coke to overweight after third quarter

earning release, believe the company has leifers to pull to meet or exceed the long-termer goal or objective what are you looking at now? >> i think the first nine months of last year is any indication of what we will see in the fourth quarter, we are still going to see very good volume growth from the company. worldwide, hitting midsingle din knit jit volume growth, a lot of the strength from their international division, latin america, africa, asia, the u.s. a tough market, still producing very good number also, they are raising prices, seeing cost saving that is flowing flew to good profit growth for the year. >> you like t would you buy shares here? >> we would. okay. pepsi, don't like coke, you like pepsi? >> more interesting, more dynamic, all the elements of the market, meaning it is the plunge of the sum, the quick recovery. now, showing good relative strength compared to coke. coke is down some -- 1,000 base points relative too market year-to-date. pepsi looks like it will pop, 66, makes a run for the may high

at 72. >> you like it there lauren what do you think? who has the brighter term prospect, coke or pepsi in your view? >> we are recommending both companies, we have more upset side to target price with pepsi right now versus coke but like both names. i don't think investors will necessarily react to fourth quarter numbers, it will be more about their outlook for this year, so, what the company talks about with respect to commodity prices, fx rate volatility and how they will manage those potential pressures, i think greater concern as we think about this year. >> there you are, fundamentals and technicals on coke and pep circumstance not that anybody asks but we thought that pepsi had the better commercials yesterday. coke's were charm bug polar bears during the super bowl doesn't make a lot of sense. lauren, carter, thank you both for joining us. maria? bill, next, our next guest says financials could lead the market to double-digit gains this year, the bullish call next. speaking of financeal, citigroup's largest individual shareholder is with me today, prince alwaleed bin talal,

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welcome back. bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange, three stocks declining for every two advancing today. narrow trading range, believe it or not, essentially at the highs for the day. down 30 doesn't sound like much. down 60 for the day. the sectors, narrow spread,

energy stocks a little bit more momentum today because some of the refining stocks are doing better than normal, the big sectors, tech, industrials and health care, all within a fairly narrow trading range. earnings season, about 60% completed so far, but tomorrow, get some big international names, companies that actually are headquartered outside the united states, for example, toyota motor, for example in japan, ubs in which is thor land, arcelor mittal, based in luxembourg. ubs, their cost cutting program and articles lore mittal, talk about in that space. what do you want to focus on ahead of big earnings as well? >> economic data as well. joining us with their thoughts, dan mcmahon, director of he can requestitity trading at raymond

james and mark chaykin, ceo of chaykin stock research. i will trot out a theme we have used in the past, fear versus fundamentals, the greek debt restructuring, versus fundamentals, looking better here in the united states. what are you focusing on? >> the market is off a little bit today, large largely becaus technicals, but seeing a return to stock picking and fundamentals are more back in vogue, particularly as we get through earnings season here. >> bullish. >> you have been bullish all along. >> the big change is the financials are leading the way that is the best thing that could be happening for the overall market. >> you think that lasts? >> i do i do. a trend toward the financials. >> trend is what we have seen in

terms of money moving into the financials but as we continue to look at fundamentals, i wonder how long that will be the driver. greece has a major bond payout june 22nd. if they default on that, leading up to that payment, isn't greece and the euro zone worries and, you know, we still don't have a fix going to be the drivers of this market? >> back on the front page but people have gotten a lot more comfortable with the fact that it's not necessarily going to lead to global contagion or -- >> no more comp place sense? >> i don't think it is complacent, but arguably comfortable. people say the risk of contagion is overer stated, particularly as it relates to the u.s. financials but also could be somewhat of a bit of complacency, that it is not grabbing the headlines, seeing a return of the institutional investor. the second half of january, volumes were up, from our perspective, 50% the first two weeks of january. still down year-over-year, but we are seeing mutual fund

inflows, positive signs as it relates to the return of the risk trade and investor. >> mark, let's talk about financials, i want to go to a fundamental catalyst that is the federal reserve and stress test n march, we will find out what the stress test looks like for the major banks, which banks do you want to be avoiding and which do you want to be holding as we come into that information? >> interestingly no banks i would avoid here. >> bank of america? >> bank america still looking good our mold, so is pnc financial. just may be these banks are the least ugly girl at the dance, vis-a-vis the european banks, money is just flowing into the stocks, amazing. addition, priced to book, cash flow to market, value metrics bullish all along, now the technicals kicked in, a big change, vis-a-vis, we talked about them. >> we will look at sectors later in the countdown. what are you buying what do you like here? >> we like the energy sector, good value there like the banks all along we like those that pay div depends and think the march

stress test should be largely a nonevent except those for which it is a not, a major, major cause celeb. real estate, downgraded the housing sector, like the apartment and nichy names so there is plenty of room for exposure. >> where are you on tech? one area that has been seeing a lot of money flow, technology, face become going public. would you put money to work in technology here? >> cautiously so very, very selectively. you think maybe the run-up has gone too far? >> i think generally speaking from the market perspective, it maybe overstated. >> what do you think? >> am, cisco, great, amazon, no i think it is a stock picker's market, as dan said, plenty of room left in apple in my view it has become a cheap stock, maybe they will pay a div can end someday. >> main, yes. >> mark, good to sue. >> see you soon. thanks a lot. invest verse been stumped about how $1.2 billion has vanished from mv global. new details emerging today how that may have happened.

kayla tausche is with us for that angle. >> when you thought there couldn't be more on mf global, we have more. the trustee overseeing the mf global bankruptcy released an update this afternoon showing exactly went funds went missing, with he don't know where, we do know when. because of that occurrence, mf's customers' accounts hate shortfall on october 26th, a day earlier that thought, but a reporting error kept personnel from being aware of it. because of a lack of accounting clarity it is possible that several mf global personnel were using a reported excess of the so-called segregated funds even though they had dipped below the break-even threshold. the number of transactions executed by mf global the last week prior to bankruptcy not only exceeded unprecedented volumes but also many were "failed transactions in" in which the buyer or seller fails to deliver the cash or asset at hand. the report makes clear from the trustee that funds regularly moved between these accounts and the trustee's investigation centered around some 840 asset transfers valued at roughly $327

billion. now, they are working with third parties to define the transactions and figure out where they stand exactly but maria, the bigger question for customers, can any of that missing customer money be claude back? if the funds were used as part of a legal transaction to pay third parties it might be gone for good expecting updates from the trustee as the investigation continues, but today, a bit more clarity why so much is missing because they believe there had were in excess. >> thanks very much. incredible. 20 minutes before the closing bell sounds on wall street for the day you can the market down, 27 points lower on the dow. >> holding steady. get ready to trade the close, our next guest explains why the volatility index, the vix is not telling us about the outlook for stocks now. later, recently took a $300 million take in twitter is heed a al concern about the potential bubble in social media? we will talk about technology and other things.

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online video strong. reports of am launching the itv that steve jobs talked about in the biography by walter jacobson later this year and among the things it would have connections for netflix and youtube, that you would be able to access them through itv, both the stocks higher today. google not a laggard today. look at the pharmacy benefit

managers, concerns as the ftc closes out the investigation on express scripts, proposed $29 billion merger with medco health. that could be scuttled. express script reese mains confident the deal will close in the first half of the year. nonetheless, the pharmacy benefit managers today under pressure on those headline. over to you guys. >> bertha, thank you very much. 18 minutes left in the trading session, time for a market stat check on the nasdaq. composite chicago its way off session lows, despite concerns that greece is running out of time to avoid default. you have heard that before. right now the nasdaq is down 6 points off the lows of the session when it was down 18 on the open. so hasn't been all that volatile in terms of the amplitude today. the cboe's volatility index looking flat throughout the session, it is positive right now, up almost 5% near the 18 level, spent much of the day here in that range, right there, maria. bill, the opening market

showing some real strength in 2012, our next guest, ken marshener, says investors need to be care half is ahead. keeping a close eye on the volatility index and what it is not telling investors. ken, good to have on the program. thanks so much for joining us. we just saw bill talk about that vix index, down to 1718, low levels. what is that signaling? >> at the moment that is signalling that equity markets should move about 1% per day and what i think potentially miss, the tail risks out of europe, largely the consensus view the european crisis will be resol resolved, greece will get its bailout package, able to restructure their debt, a lot of movinging pieces there potential for things to go wrong, people shouldn't discount the tail risk. >> what are you looking at in terms of the tail risk and how are you investing around that? >> what's interesting, if you look at the volatility term structure, if you look at the vix, measuring at the money

volatility sort of in the current form, short-term volatility, but if you look out farther in the term structure, three moment, six months, one year out, implied volatility is a lot higher. another measure you could look at is skew, cost to protect the downside, downside put protection, the skew curve is very steep, implies why people start to begin to worry about some of the issues that might to start to pop up in the next month or two or three after some of the stimulus wears off. >> what do you want to do in this environment? what do we need to be exposed to and avoiding, given these tail risks out there? >> i think just in general for the equity investors, the high end of the range, people are ignoring the risks that have always been there's, but potential catalysts here in the next couple of months. >> leave it there, good to have you on the program, ken, thank you so much. >> thanks for having me back. >> 16 minutes to go the dow down 28 points. next, prince alwaleed bin

talal, talk about the sanctions against iran as well as how he is allocating money today. >> always the smartest the guy that room. looking forward to that first, here is how the treasury market is trading today. we are back after this.

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okay. i'm back on the floor of the new york stock exchange, where they trade warehouser, not hard to find here, they put a nice graphic up for us, showing how it is declining, a pair of down grades from ubs and da davidson, cutting weer houser to a sell. both firms cite reval lation.

international paper risen 7%. with that 40% gain, stale laggard. generally red arrows on wall street today but energy has been something of a bright spot. it has been the top-performing sector among the s & p sectors today. mary thompson has more on that story now. mary? >> we head toward the close, the s & p moving very close to break even now, thanks to the strength that you mentioned in the energy sector, which is one of the ones higher today, up 1%. telecom making a late move to the upside, helping to offset the weakness we are seeing in materials, health care around utility, financials, actually among the early losers as well today. dig deep near what's happening today. first today within the sectors, material stocks under pressure amid general weakness in commodity, monsanto passicing t decline. financials facing a decline.

tech sector is lower as well, on the fourth time this year that the sector has been in the red. now, turning to the sectors in the green, energy, as we mentioned earlier, this despite crude slide today, the sector has been the best performer, as bill mentioned, up a little over 1%, helping contribute to that gain today, alpha natural resource, up 3.3% on the news that it is going to be cutting coal production, reducing output in fours because of weak demand for the fuel. within telecom, verizon making gains on the news it is joining forces with coin star's red box to compete with netflix, offering streaming video and dvd rentals, verizon up .8 a percent, telecom stronger by .2. bill, back to you. >> thank you very much. we will take a break, come back

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about six minutes left in the trading day here. people asking what does story mean? let the markets tell us what it means, we look to see if the markets are fearful of a particular story or whether they are trading on fundamentals in any particular case and today it would appear that the treasuries were trading on fundamentals. we had the dow, s & p and nasdaq, all 20% above the october lows a good run since october 9th low, whether or not we are hitting a peak here remains to be seen. energy is the only sector trading higher today in an other by down day, we will talk about that with dan mcmahon in a moment here.

as for the treasuries, a built of a bid, the yield came down across the board, among the longer term yields, almost at the lows of the session here, even though we have the situation in greece, story that refuses to go away and new supply coming to mark threat week, going to auction off $72 billion in note and bonds this week, starting with a three-year note auction tomorrow. oil, that is a different story, trading on both fear and fundamentals. our market, wti crude market, is trading on fundamentals right now. an awful lot of oil out there, supplies have been going up as the weather has been still unseasonably warm in the northeast, heating oil is plentiful and prices lower, but brent norcy trading on fear now, iranian situation, the syrian situation as well and right now, the spread between brent and wti, which is traditionally about $10, is roughly double that amount, $20 in part because

of the rise in brent norcy crude because of the fear factor now. gold continued lower here, a tiebreaker for us whether we are a fearful market or a fundamental market, down 2% on friday, down another 1% in today's trade. now it is acting like a risk on asset. the vix, a bump today we see there, a 4.5% gain. make no mistake the longer term trend is lower for the fear index. yum brands looking for 74 cents, a 17% increase last year. yum brands a good ride in the last year, not exactly mcdonald's or chipotle mexican, among the strongest stocks anywhere, no matter fast food or otherwise. show you that one-year chart of yum brands here with the good ride we have had since the

october rose there. we get ready for the earnings after bell. dan mcmahon, the sectors and how they perform today, you like energy, you mentioned before, but does it matter what the price of oil or the other raw materials in that sector does? >> it certainly does because it has to do with margins. we don't like energy because we think the it is going to rip this is oversupply. helping refiners, cheaper commodity going in pass along the cost to consumers, helping the margins at the refiners, we think things are loosening up in the gulf of mexico. we favor the oily names than the gassy names. >> there are sectors that lag at this point that you lininged for valuation purposes? >> at this point, yes. utilities are lagging simply because they lastly outperformed

last year on the defensive play. start 2012 and finish '11, well underinvested, not e -- not enough exposure. seeing people chase the banks a bit. >> one of the classic plays was dividend play, classic defensive play, wait for market to wake up again. market starting to wake up, economy wake up, chase dividends anymore? >> i think very wise, particularly the individual investor, to buy dividend-paying stocks. provide downside protection from the institutional standpoint, see a different trait. defensive names are giving it back, mentioned utilities. health care, out of the biotech that don't pay dividends, not a

matter of chasing div depends, there is a lot of cash going, money flows, two of the last three weeks, inflows to mutual funds, not significant inflows but the first time since march two out of three weeks, people are putting money back to work and we will be chasing performance. >> thanks for stick around. bob pisani, we wait for yum brands and prince alwaleed is in the house. 4:15 eastern. >> yum brands important for sales in china, a very strong presence there. a very important time for gift giving in chain narc the lunar new year ended, sales below expectations. it will be interesting to hear what yum brands has to say. and how the global steel business is doing from al sell lore mittal. indicators what is going