tv Mad Money CNBC February 7, 2012 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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little money off the table at apple. downside puts are cheap here. >> thanks for watching. see you tomorrow 9:00 a.m. for i'm jim cramer and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game. >> they are nuts. they know nothing. i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere. "mad money" you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm jim cramer, my job not to just entertain, but to educate, call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. we are not used to this. we are not used to markets that let you in and allow you to make money practical on a daily basis. markets that permit you to make a good profit buying companies that are doing well with good profits going forward. that is what i found myself
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thinking. we started lower in the morning and looking ugly and then grew over the course of the day into a good session. dow rallied and nasdaq advanced .70, this action is different from the market we have had from the last 12 yooers, it's worth discussing what is going on. if you have a bull market happening, either people do not recognize the market for what it is, because they have not seen a bull, or skeptical or they forgot what a bull market looks like because it's been so long since we had one. i'm old enough to have seen all kinds of markets. rallies were broad based and gave us fantastic returns, not snap back craziness and whip saw
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moves. understand, i'm not saying everything is right. copper dropped today. i've been saying that i need it to go higher, things are not perfect. but what i'm saying is is this tape, meaning the day-to-day action has a lot in common with the bull markets of old. let me give you the bull, bull markets are built on a foundation of skepticism and disbelief. every bull market has been scoffed at and they stay away and hide in other areas like treasuries, lately the volume is shockingly low. the participation in this market seems nil, you have to search far and wide for someone that says e -- that says i like this market. i hear more about a bubble in stocks.
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it's going to trampel all the skeptical sellers. this morning, two good quarters for coca-cola and yum, both rallied after reporting. before you say of course they rallied, last year's stocks rarely did what they were supposed to do. approxima the stocks went down regardless of how good the stocks reported. they could not buck the tide or we found a fault in aline and in this market we take good news at face value. third, in other markets, stocks that disappoint, they go down, and they stay down. not in in market. classics time, we have a bull on our hands. disappointers they tend to go down and wait a little and spring back up and we struggle to remember what was wrong with
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them. think about it. goldman sachs missed horribly right up in the corner of to new york times yet the stock is up more than 20 points. alcoa horrible quarter, 20%, fall. consider the worst mess, chipot chipotle, they got crushed. and upon closer review, we through the flag, not unlike belichick, he through it wrong, never mind. it was a super quarter, the bears were stuffed in to d oc-- anyway, bull markets let you in, bear markets suck you in. perfect example, another good day where the market opens down and oh, unlike 2011 that was fair warning, it's a good
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opportunity to get in on a better pryce. this year when you buy low, you get a good price, fourth in the good markets in the '80s, they weather levels of resistance intel, above 25, did you see mcdonald's, over 100, walmart has cleared 60 at last. these have been containment levels forever, and no longer. fifth, the good stocks do not seem to quit. we got stocks that just seem at will will go higher seems like every day, it's a day that apple seems to go up every day, starbu starbucks, well known names that are tacking on point after
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point. finally this market is not zero sum, the problem with almost all the rallies is they have been narrow, almost the entire run was in commodity stocks, china plays, and soft goods and financials they sat out, and tech could not get out of its own way. tech stocks rallied nicely today across the board and the retailers tore up the joint and so did the retail stocks. ag stocks were higher and so do the consumers of the ags did well. we have not sustained a rally since the 1990s a move where the money can did not come out of peter's portfolio to pay for paul's, but that is what happened in the 1980s, we saw the same thing. after a moldy decade of a dead market then we saw every different stock doing well. call it a bubble, call it a
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light volume on short squeeze, i don't care. discount it as a weird bounce off of year-end lows. say what you want, but it looks like the bull that brought us out of the dow 1,000. sure the dow spiked higher in the last decade but that was an unsustainable run but this one, maybe it has the making of those incredible bullish markets of yore that made people believe there were good stocks to save and invest and not just rent and yes, you wa ultimately scorn, l to dave in ohio. what is up dave? >> i'm concerned about the higher oil prices and the economic downturn, should i move out of equities and into short-term bonds? >> the two worries that you have just hit, were worries that were
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in my shows. a war with iran and israel and i'm worrying that our gas is going above $4, that is what other people are worrying about. if that happens, the market will get hit, you can raise money because of it. but they will indeed even then perhaps bebuying in the end. call it what you want, but i got to side with the bulls. "mad money" be right back. >> coming "technical time," europe's crisis, can it trip up the bull market at home. an all new dedication of "off the charts" and later at your q all this week, jim's checking his inbox, voicemail and twitter to answer your best questions on the air, tonight, ready to ride the rails?
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2012. now it seems like the biggest winner from last year, could be ready to give up the ghost. so what was of last year's best performing asset class? not stocks they were flat for the year and not gold, but it did well, nearly 10% in 2011. no, the best place to put your money last your, some people would say hide your money, was in united states treasuries, yes. long-term treasury bonds. just take a look at the i-shares bar clay's treasuries etf, also known as the tlt, it's the stock that appreciates when treasury bonds rally in price and interest rates go down and drops when treasuries decline this price and interest rates go higher. prices and rates trade
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inversely, sorry i had to give you that. the tlt was up 30% last year and gave you closer to a 34% return when you think of coupon payments. it's normally a safe place for your money, bonds, but we do not think of them delivering the massive capital appreciation that so many pundits came on these shows and said it was a bad bet. 30% return is not what you expect from a u.s. government backed piece of paper. now it's looking to me, and others, like bonds may have topped. like this terrific move at last is over, and at least according to tim collins my colleague at "street.com" which is why we are going off the charts to understand why last year's raleirally
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in treasuries may turn out to be a sell. if you were in long-term treasuries last year you were made to be a fool. but think he think -- he thinks that they are in for a is vicious decline. many of you are in bonds. that is the asset class that many people have gotten into. check out the daily chart of the tlt, again, remember this is the i-shares things. there's a lot going on here i know, but do not be intimidated by this. first, take a look at the relative strength index. rsi. okay. it's the top. okay. this this is a directional momentum indicater that measures the strength of the trend, and look, it's been trending down
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for a long time, making a consistent series of lower highs. goi ining all the way back to august. which suggests the momentum in treasuries could be flagging. during the time, it has been making flat lows, creating a floor of support and if it falls through the floor which it looks like it may be about to do. talk about a major flag, the bonds could be toast if it faus through the floor. same thing, with what is happening with the force index, a new indicater with uone that uses price and it indicates when they will change direction. it has been making low or highs. trending down in a way that collins, tlt, could be next. look at this cleaned up version of the daily charts so we can focus on the tltef, the real
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warning signs are in the rsi and the forced index in the bottom. the price action of the bonds has not been pretty either. we see here, look at this, the t will -- the tlt has a ceiling of 118 and all above where the tlt went out at 127. that is resist answer and it ma makes it tough for them to move they have to crash through barrier afteri barrier, at the same time, there are fewer and fewer levels of support underneath the tlt, and they are spread are much further apart, so if it drops through one, it has a long way to go before the next support level breaks in. where the tlt is right now is the last floor, if it drops
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beneath that level, the floor is not until 112 and then another one at 108, collins would short the tlt, forget another close at 116, because people follow the charts i'm telling you will see a water fall, a land slide if it takes the fall. this one has to do with volume. these bars on the left side of the chart, they measure how many volume there has been in the given price range. you see below 114 it drops off in a major way. it's devoid of big volume which means trips through that area can happen quickly, both to way up and on the way down. and another reason that collins thinks that the tlt breaks, it will break down hard. consider the trap door that elton john went through in the super bowl ad you can see the same situation more clearly on
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the weekly chart. take a look. there are two resistance levels at 123 and 119. see? and the waivering floor of support at 116. and then after that floor, there's a long fall down to 108 and or even 102 before it finds support. ly -- it will go down and then bounce a bit. but the problem is in the trix, when it comes to the charts, trix are not for kids. this is a leading momentum cater that is used to figure out when a security is going to change direction ttrix just had a bearish cross over and the last time it happened in 2010, it
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predicted a 10% decline. i'm with him, the bear ares are making the playoffs in the chart. another reason to fear is the volatility index or the vix, take a look at the tlt and the vix together. last year these two things were joined at the hip, they practically traded in lock step. here, right, vix, vix, and the tlt, they are like the same chart. which makes a lot of sense because the vix is known as the fear index and when investors are afraid, they go and hide in treasuries, but the tlt and vix die verge. and feels like something has to give, i want you to think like
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wylie coyote, and the vix is dropped over here, way too low. where should bonds be? yeah, in any scenario, when we have a war between iran and israel, it's more sense to do buy the vix, if you feel, this is wrong, go by the vix, i think sell the tlt, i think that collinss is dead right here. with the risk of cascading european bank failures off the table, treasury is dead money. you do not sell bonds when a economy is heating up. you sell them. this is what the harcharts are telling me. these charts worry me, collins is going to be right. and the charts indicate that long-term treasuries could be about to be the biggest loser in
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2012. and i have to agree with him on the fundamentals. time to ring the register on the bonds. you want yields, don't look at bonds, look to stocks, at this point, they have got a lot less risk then owning the tlt. next up i'll try you to save you more money. >> announcer: coming up at your request, jim is checking his inbox, voicemail and twitter to answer your best questions to air, tonight, ready to ride the rails some all board, conductor cramer decides which stocks with take your portfolio full steam ahead. and this company makes the world's smallest heart pump, giving patients another option, do not miss exclusive ahead coming up on "mad money".
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on earth. tonight's tweet is from bobie 23, he asks, jim, give me that? by the way, we are getting so many amazing ideas and we captain get to all of them. but you can see the incoming tweets from all over cramerica in the cnbc twitter. so keep them coming,@jim cramer #tweets. now back to the excellent question. not just because these rails are not like the redding and the pency, both worth the same price in monopoly when i always threw the board at my sister when i lost, which is why she let me win. i'm a fan of the railroads because they benefit from the economy, something that is
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becoming obvious, even to the skeptics except for the democrats and republicans and ben bernanke, even before things started to get better here in america, i liked the railroad business for the simple fact that it a big slap happy industry with a handful of players that are not in competition with each other. they divided up the country. which is better? these are the questions that we used to ask. pitting them against each other to see who is better. i've been doing this exercise for you. we are all one big hedge fund together here. now, union pacific and norfolk southern are major american railroads, neither of them is like the shortline, but in the end, there can be only one
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winner. that is because making these kinds of comparative decisions, figuring out that x is better than y, which is what they do at hedge funds, this is what i want you to do at home. this is how you about become a good stock picker. in 2012, we have a stock picker's market where company's trade on their merits which means you have to learn how to pick stocks. not etf or s&p 500, stocks. union pacific is now in striking distance of the 52 week high. but with norfolk southern has rallied 15% and more than six points off the tie. they have the same 16% long-term growth rate, which means on a
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peg ratio, norfolk southern is cheaper, we could stop there and say buy norfolk southern. so do we go with the leader or lagger? as is often the case, it's best to pay a bit higher for the best of breed. by union pacific over norfolk southerning here is the reasons, first and foremost the rails began a repricing for new contracts seek he will starting -- cycle starting in 2003. we are now in the late innings of the story. it not quite over and union pacific has the most up side from repricing going forward, that's the key metric going forward. to understand what is happening here, we need to go to the way back machine when the railroads were federal regulated and the government decided how much they
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could charge for shipping. there were deregulated but did not change their pricing market. it caused rates to fall through 2003 from 1980. now the rates have been rising, and it's led to a railroad growth in the last decade and gave you multiple year gains. union pacific has rallied 375% over the last nine years and it's not finished. union pacific has 8% of contracts up for repricing and that is on top of 4% of their contracts that were just repriced. that is how you get up side pricing. norfolk southern, 3% of their contracts are up for repricing. second, when it comes to the
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rails, coal is king. that is a serious problem given that natural gas prices have gotten cheap here in america. it's giving coal a run for its money. and a crack down on coal burning utilities that is going to happen if obama is re-elected. companies are switching right now from coal to gas, i like union pacific because they get a portion of their profits from coal and the coal that is mined out west is cleaner than the coal from the eastern part of the country where norfolk southern operates. a lot of bad here. union pacific has you up side away from coal with 8% of the revenues coming from autos, and market is on fire, 15% from
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chemic chemicals, 70% from industrial products and 18% from agriculture, you see the numbers? we will plant for stuff than the last 25 years, and they are in the mobile business, starting to improve because of the accelerating economy and the turn in housing. third, union pacific had a much better quarter than norfolk southern. u and p had a fabulous 18% earnings and stronger than expected revenues and 15.8% pricing and sell rating revenue growth. we love that. this was a high quality beat. norfolk southern reported a operational miss on january 24th and the earnings came in lower than expected. their appearles to apples was a
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miss. so much for that pe analysis. norfolk southern does not disclose pricing. union pacific's key metric is stronger. and finally union pacific has great management and a good b l ball -- good balance sheet. norfolk southern is better, this is one of those cases where you get what you pay for, bottom line, when it comes to the railroads, no question about it, union pacific is a better company that norfolk southern with a stronger business and more repricing catalysts ahead and it's the better stock, trading -- and while i'm telling you both rails can work their way higher, if you landed on norfolk southern you would say your powder but if you landed on union pacific, you would
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mortgage the board walk to buy it. hey, how about sidney in virginia sidney >> thank you for helping the small time investor. >> that is what this show is dedicated to. they have to. go ahead. >> i have a concern about csx, it has dropped for the last two days, what happened here? is it mismanagement or the economy? >> it's not management because michael moore runs it, they had change at the top here. but it's a coal based railroad. meaning the coal is a predominant cargo that will determine the fate of csx and coal is -- well it's beating the heck out of it because of natural gas. on the knch caonference calls sy
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that natural gas this low is bad for the rails. i have on go to lee. >> big booyah from the high desert. >> i used to go there to watch the sun go down. >> jb hunt, last week, they had record revenue earnings for 20 eleven, what is the effect on the stock going to be and where do you see the stock going? >> by the way, the transports did not act well today, and that is a worry, i think they go higher. and i think the trucking companies are terrific. and don't forget the truck's engine companies. i do not see anything slowing down union pacific, no, new york city it will keep moving, i want to thank my buddy, and pal, friend at bobie 23, who nailed this question. keep the requests coming and don't forget, we will show them on the twitter. stay with cramer.
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>> coming up the clock the ticking, find out how to fire away at cramer on the lightening rou round. and later, early valentine? this medical device company makes the world's smallest heart pump giving patients another option, do not miss the exclusive with the ceo of a bio med. coming up on "mad money."
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it is time for the lightening round. are you ready? the lightening round, we will start with john in pennsylvania. john? >> caller: jim. from pennsylvania, >> what is on your mind? >> caller: well, since the beginning of the year, where i first bought it for the giant dividend this stock made a nice
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climb, i want to see if i can buy more near the 52-week high and do you see the dividend going higher? it's cedar fair. >> it's up 27 and we recommend it several times. it can go higher. cody in michigan. >> caller: booyah. on the friday's job report it was the higher, where do you think that paychecks is going? >> i think automatic data did not have good things to say, they have been saying they are not that great, but when they go well, it will soar. let go to shelley. >> caller: jim you are a great teacher and we love your show >> thank you. >> caller: i have a question about a company called one oak, and it the symbol is oke
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>> terrific company has over shot the yield, went up so much that the yield is not that high anymore. i still want to own the company. i would like it to come down a bit more bring would pull the trigger. jim in california, jim? >> caller: booyah cramer, i'm in the house of pain in one of stocks. >> that is an apartment complex offensive pain and until they report two good quarters they are in the major penalty box. i'm not kidding. i mean they are like, wow, wow. i mean, they, give it a couple quarters. i'm stunned because interlink is one of the worst companies we have had on the show. jay. >> caller: booyah from san diego. >> i love san diego, i'm coming to soon. what is up. >> caller: you came in high on
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carrizo oil a year ago, where do you stand now? >> i believe in the company, i feel like we have to be more oil which is eog, my new favorite. ryan in florida? >> caller: booyah, jim how are you this evening? >> what is going on. >> caller: a quick question, a company with a nice run up in the past few months, and a video game to come out, take two -- >> it's the best in the game stocks right now, electronic arts is underneath them. take two is the real deal and that is the conclusion of the lightening round. >> the lightening round is sponsored by tdameri trade. >> let's go top kentucky.
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here is a big las vegas! >> a big booyah, boston, nashville, michigan. let cramer help you channel yours, "mad money" with jim cramer, week nights. and hurtle us all into space, which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd and you still need to retire, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans?
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with valentines day around the corner, we have to ask the age old question, how do you mend a broken heart, there's a small medical device company that knows the answer. abiomed, heart disease is a huge problem in the country. it not just lethal, it's expensive. that is one of the reasons that car ca cardiologists are always looking for other ways to treat it before having to do an operation. here is the impella, you'll not believe it when you see it. it is replacing a 40-year-old
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technology called the balloon pump. which is used about 124,000 times a year in the country. if abiomed can convert half of the patients to their own market, the knock on the stock, people say it's a one trick are pony but the company is working on different items in the pipeline. plus, this is really cool, company sells world's first completely self contained artificial replacement heart, but it not the story that is driving the stock. now the company reported a blow out quarter on friday, analysts were looking for a one cent loss. impella sales were up 37% and stock has run up 70% from a month ago. it's expensive. to put it in perspective, the
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average take over market comes out at five times sales. questions have had abiomed down this very morning. has the stock got ahead of itself and does it have room to run. i'm telling you because when you see it, you'll want to buy it. let talk to the chairman and ceo to see where the company is headed. welcome to "mad money." >> thank you for having me. >> first of all, we got it and we know there's a research firm colling out and saying abiomed, be careful because the insurance companies will cut back how much they reimburse for it. that was rumor, it's not true >> no, it not true, we have great reimbursement from the government because the product helps to save lives and the insurance companies are covering it for emergency patients. one thing that is different is heart recovery will grow in
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health care, people want to keep their hearts and payers and providers want to find ways to get better outcomes not only from the hospitals but out to 90 days and we show a 56% reduction inned adverse events. >> show it to us. >> it's the smallest heart pump, it can be put through a small hole in the leg to get to the heart and procedures today, patients are riskier and sicker and the procedures are less invasive. you can put it through a small hole in the leg it will sit in the left ventrical and it will pump. here is the motor and this is the world you smallest heart pump, right here in this key chain, it's spinning at 50,000 revolutions per minute. >> can we see it? it tiny. >> it helps the heart rest and recover or provides protection.
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there's two types s patients, that is turned down for surgery, bob is in the hospital, they put it in and does the procedure and the patient as we see in the study, their heart gets better and they improve and on the emergency patients we have folks, like a firefighter that has a heart attack, getting cpr, they use the pump to help rest his heart and he gets better and he is back with his own heart, he can did not have to get a transplant or surgery. this is what we are focused on. heart recovery is special. >> how many hospitals is it in? >> we are in 605 hospitals. we got approval in 2008. we have 72 patents we have to debt and we have 70 million in cash. so we are getting focused on changing the standard of care. >> if i walked into a standard hospital with a emergency
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procedure, i don't know how many hospitals in the country have it, can you request it or does the doctor say it, i do not want that balloon, it's on and off, it doesn't do the job? >> we just made the medical guidelines in november. so we expect to see it. it's an important thing, and we have clinical data coming. this is in the early innings of the ramp. >> it saves money the government will want it and you have data that said that 90 days out is better. >> and it's cost effective and patients get to keep their own heart. >> i understand why the stock is moving. the ceo of abiomed stock, the stock is up allot but this is the kind of thing that is like isrg, stay with cramer.
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. is the market fixed? is it a game that is rigged against you? i don't think so. you can buy plenty of companies that are doing well. not one of them is a mugs game, they are not rigged in the least. but some parts of the market seem shady. and i understand how people feel towards wall street. i talked with people about the
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small piece of stock will be offered, does the public understand that that little piece is a flood that is coming toward them. it's like a blue light special pulling you in the store, when in reality it can be dribbled out over time. the fcc has to come to terms with these issues. it gets people excited because they do not understand that there's a ton of additional stock that will be offered in the nearby future. if you really want to see outrageous, check out the indictment of credit traders that was filed, alleging faud lent valuation of bonds to get bonuses that americans can only dream about. they were creating false
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evaluations to boost their pay. simply by claiming the bonds they owned were worth more than what the market said they were worth. armed with these sky high and false valuations the traders were able on prove that they made millions for the firms when it was not true. they were caught on tape, making up prices, it makes for fascinating and disgusting reading. my blood wanted to boil when i heard this because the home mortgage was falling apart when these crooks were trying to say their mortgages were holding up terrifically. is it all rigged? not if you stick with clean companies, that support good balance sheets, but for the rest, let's say, approach it with that age old latin idea, buyer be ware, stick with
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cramer. >> the stock market just keeps rolling and the presidential race is up for grabs and ben bernanke says no to tax hikes. olling over by april 16th." "i like bonuses." "plus at scottrade, there are thousands of commission-free investments." "and if i need help, i can find it online, by phone or at one of over five-hundred scottrade locations." "it's why more investors with i.r.a.s are saying.." "i'm with scottrade." ♪ [music] emspark card from capital one. spark cash gives me the most rewards of any small business credit card. it's hard for my crew to keep up with 2% cash back on every purchase, every day. 2% cash back. that's setting the bar pretty high. thanks to spark, owning my own business has never been more rewarding. [ male announcer ] introducing spark the small business credit cards from capital one. get more by choosing unlimited double miles or 2% cash back on every purchase, every day.
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sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner. well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie. [ male announcer ] marriott hotels & resorts knows it's better for xerox to automate their global invoice process so they can focus on serving their customers. with xerox, you're ready for real business. cooling off, but sometimes you have to power higher. buffalo wild wings on fire, just up huge because people were
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