welcome it to "squawk box" live from pebble beach, this is the site of the at&t pro-am. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew ross sorkin is back at our global headquarters along with steve liesman this morning. and we have a special guest host who is joining us very, very early on the with west coast. pimco's neel. we are glad we tricked you into getting up this early. >> i didn't know if we would be shooting in the dark, watching the ground hogs run around. glad we're inside. >> i think they're gophers. not really ground hogs. >> you're right. >> getting ready -- >> did you -- were you at monterey peninsula? >> i was all over the place. my gps system, i don't want to say the brand, had me driving through neighborhood and little towns. >> we heard you saw a green and pulled in --

>> i went to a green -- >> said is this pebble beach? no, it's monterey. you made it and thank you, really. it's early. >> it is early and we're thrilled to have you here with us. >> who is coughing? liesman? >> i'm not coughing. >> we missed you yesterday. >> i missed you yesterday. >> who is coughing? liesman. >> joe, i hope you had a good week so far. >> it's been great, andrew. thank you. you've been holding down the fort, right? >> we've been trying. don't watch any of the tapes and we'll keep it there. that's probably the best way to do it. to some news real quickly -- >> i saw some good buzz on twitter. >> take it easy. relax. >> some good buzz. >> we did and it has been on from 3:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. so don't worry we didn't see any of your tapes. >> he wore a sweater, joe. >> i heard. i wasn't going to rat you out. i did hear this and saw on twitter the commentary on it. >> well, you've tried that before. you've tried that before. you need a fireplace behind you. >> what do they say -- what do you call it goes away the

something will play? >> when the cat's away the mice will play. >> so here we are, the mice. we're going to do a quick news and get back to the west coast. the excitement over the greek agreement on the austerity cuts was short-lived. european ministry has demanded further cuts by the middle of next week in exchange for $172 billion bailout to avoid a greek bankruptcy. they want an extra $430 million in cuts as well as written guarantees the austerity plan will be implemented even after greece elects a new government in april. the two major labor unions call a 48-hour strike in protest of the austerity plan docking ships and halting. the euro hit two-month highs against the dollar. the pullback as eu ministers demanded further cuts. the euro weighing on gold again. it fell more than 1% on fears that the greek bailout was now in jeopardy and it feels like we have a deal when we don't have a deal.

is the deal enough? >> you had some thoughts this morning. >> "a," the deal is not enough. >> we know that. >> we know that. >> and, two, i'm afraid to say that some of the numbers may not add up -- forget about how much money we need right now, i think in a month or two the numbers won't add up. >> the revenue -- >> because the revenue will contin continue. >> plus the whole aspect even the stuff they have agreed to may not come true. >> exactly. >> so we'll be right back here again to breaking news that there's another greek deal. >> i think there will have to be between today and march 20th. >> march 19th -- >> march 20th is d-day. >> there's an extra week in there somewhere? >> there's the possibility. >> the debt ceiling here this the united states when they said it was this day, then that day. let's check on the rest of the markets this morning. the futures, valued down quite a bit. i guess that's the falloff from the rethinking greek deal. we had a rally yesterday when it came 0 out.

s&p and nasdaq both showing they would open they go tiff on the fair value board and oil, which i think rallied yesterday, down $1.22. and the ten year which fell off on the greek news because that was good news and yields rose, it is $1.98. >> it's time for the global markets report. i'm sorry to say we're going to go to beccy meehan but we have to get back to the west coast because there's such a big show going on out there. rebecca, given us a quick update on what's going on across the pond this morning. i'm sorry to disappoint you but we have to get through the markets here first. we've been talking a great deal about greece because we thought we had a deal and now we don't have a deal or maybe we do have a deal but we're not quite sure yet. there's still some way to go. certainly several more chapters to come in the story. that uncertainty as we heard from andrew there is weighing on the markets in the states.

the expected open there. the and it's having an impact here, too. overall the regional index is down by nearly half a percent so market plays you don't know which way to go with this. let's break it down to some of the individual markets and see how it's shaping up on this basis. the ftse here in the u can k is down between 0.3% and 0.4%. declines in uk. steeper drops, 0.9% lower. 0.7% down for the cac and the ftse mib which did manage to gain first thing this morning has also turned negative, too, down by half a percent. the big picture is a large part of this negleative sentiment bu we do have corporate news which you must not forget about either. particularly we have earnings in the banking sector and bonuses come back into the spotlight once again. there's been a lot of pressure, public pressure, government pressure particularly here in the uk on the big coes to forgo bonuses. bob diamond said he's not going to comment on his bonusbut bear

in mind they still are making lots of money at barclays. they haven't had the government bailout so you may say why should he forgo his bonus? stock is up after its results. alcatel-lucent higher by over 16%. the operating profits and the revenue actually fell. makers said their clients are cutting back but last time they reported they had a big drop in their stock price. so coming back a bit from those levels today. total also out with figures. the stock down by 1%. the bonds have seen a real tightening between the german yields and what's going on in spain and italy. that is certainly being taken as good news because we are well below the levels in italy and in spain. while there's concern, joe, about what's going on in europe and about a lack of resolution in greece, doesn't seem to be hurting the bond markets. >> wow. i got a close-up shot here, beccy. can you go wide on me like maybe -- you can't get to

cleveland, can you? how far back can you go? keep going. keep going. all right. that's a little bit easier on the eyes. we are joined in pebble beach -- talk about easy on the eyes, by one of our favorite "squawk" guest hosts, pimco managing director, we're just so glad. for me to be here when the alarm went off i was in shock. i was in shock. weren't you when you heard it? >> no. i woke up every hour waiting. >> you haven't been out here -- i've been here since saturday. >> you've been here too long. >> i have. it was truly 1:30. >> but i have a great story. your good friend, my good friend called me at 1:40. he said, are you up? i said, yes, i'm up, thank you very much for the call. good, i can go to sleep now. click. >> i think he e-mailed me right after that because i did get an e-mail. >> i had a message that said

welcome to west coast time. here is what i glean from this greek stuff and you tell me whether i'm wrong. it doesn't even go far enough and it's still everybody is striking because they don't like it. is there any way that they just don't eventually have to devalue the drachma, the only way to force austerity on the public at-large is to devalue the currency. they don't notice it because they may not see it in nominal numbers that your wages go down but your buying power gets cut in half and that's the way that you really are able to affect the austerity that's needed. >> well, you're right. so whatever package is put together, when it's finally agreed to we have no confidence they'll be able to deliver on that austerity and we have no confidence they can get their economy to grow. so whatever they come up with in the next couple of weeks is not going to be enough. so there's a high probability that they're going to have to do

more of this and maybe even exit the eurozone. joe, it's not going to be pain free. if they do exit and bring back the drachma, you're right, the people may not have a choice in that but it will be painful in terms of inflation, in terms of job destruction. there's a lot of pain to come. the question is, is it willing or not? >> they've already lived for the last five or ten years so that the only option is what you just described, though, isn't it? and how can they have the same interest rates and currency as northern europe? >> no, you are absolutely right. this is the fundamental economic imbalance that the euro currency has been masking. the imbalances have been growing and now it's at the breaking point but, unfortunately, it means real pain for the people on the street in greece as they go through this painful adjustment and i hope we can all learn from this because no country is immune from imbalances. >> michelle caruso cabrera was laying out what would happen if they decided not to go along with the austerity measures that the eu was seeking and she said the biggest problem they're going to have is that the lender

of last resort disappears and that no one is going to lend to them whether it be drachmas or euros or in any way, shape or form. they say it will be painful but what had it look like in greece? >> the banking system in greece could collapse. people lose their savings. the economy plunges into effectively a depression. jobs get cut. now eventually people will step back in and lend. over history greece has defaulted many times and markets either forget or regain confidence and will begin lending again on much more favorable terms at much lower asset price levels. so there will eventually be a recovery but that transition period will be very, very painful and what we are most focused on, what's important to greece is important but we're most focused on the contagion risk to italy and to spain. >> eventually, right? >> maybe quickly. it depends on how it unravels. >> will we see the same sequence, portugal and next is spain? >> yes. it's just like the banks in the

u.s. you start with the weakest and it goes after the next weakest bank or the next weakest country so from greece to portugal everyone is focused on italy and spain because they are too large to fail and so firewalls need to be built around them to protect them if greece eventually goes -- >> it seems like a counterpart should know at this point all this is happening. they've had so much time to prepare for this eventuality. is that why we feel better about it? we don't think it's going to be as big a shock to the system as we did six months ago. >> we do, though i would be cautious about that. so two things. number one, people have had a lot of time to see it coming. remember, we had six months to see lehman brothers coming and that was a massive shock. number two, the good news is the ecb with their long-term refinance on rapgs hasekively taken the risk of a financial institution default off the table because it effectively said we will lend to the banks in unlimited quantities. so that transmission mechanism has been taken care of.

but there are other transmission mechanisms outside of the banking system we're worried about. >> well, thank god you're here because i'm going to go out and hit a couple of putts. i don't have to do anything. really, can we just ask him -- do you mind? >> no, no, no, you have to stay here. >> oh, i have to stay here? >> yeah. all right. we need you here. >> go right out there -- >> we need you here. but, neel will be with us throughout the show. we'll continue to watch the markets. also, in case you were living under a rock and you missed it, the legendary actor and director clint eastwood creating quite a buzz in a chrysler ad during the super bowl that declared ha halftime in america. >> this country can't be knocked out with one punch. we get right back up again, and when we do, the world is going to hear the roar of our engines. yeah, it's halftime, america. and our second half is about to begin. >> clint eastwood just happens to be an investor in pebble beach and obviously the at&t pro-am is a huge time for this

club. we got the chance to talk to clint eastwood about that ard, the message, and the reaction. listen in. >> the average man or woman on the street took it for exactly what it was, a core message for america and like it's halfway through the recession, let's work our way out of it. that doesn't mean anybody is endorsing or any particular products or any particular philosophy. i'm surprised that people that are supposed to be intelligent have interpreted it otherwise because it's very disappointing when you see that because the average person seems to get it. >> eastwood also made comments about the bailouts, about spending and washington and what he thinks needs to happen at this point. we'll have much more of the interview throughout "squawk box." by the way, we want to show you some amazing clips of what's

been happening here at pebble beach. joe has been playing and yesterday you had -- >> i had like two good shots. >> well, they happened to catch them. you had a good shot at the right point. >> they started the camera coverage on 16. that's how long it took. >> the 16th hole. >> for a good shot, yeah. >> let's take a look. i think we have it. who picked up on this? >> 16 and the popular co-host of cnbc's "squawk box" in the morning, joe kernen. there's a hole there as well. and is that -- oh, yeah. he gets a shot there. so playing with steve elkington. joe actually has a masters degree in biology. he's one smart man playing with elkington who is not that smart.

>> one very smart man. >> he didn't -- he's great. he was -- you could see he was hesitant to say that's a three -- it was a par 4. i had a stroke but it looked like maybe it was a par putt. it really was a three for two and that's a net eagle. >> how far was that? >> like 25 feet probably but elk had read it for me and then, i don't know, sooner or later, he's like the greatest guy. he's an aussie and a major winner. >> right. >> if you've seen the pga logo, the tour logo that you see the silhouette, that's his swing. >> how perfect it is? >> how classic his finish is. he's an amazing guy. he's great. that's the best thing about him. the scenery is great. >> we have a picture of you on the 18th hole, too. >> yes, from the quick album. >> my mom apparently didn't get the message that you are not allowed to have cameras around. we do have a shot of that.

>> there are so many smartphones in the world now that everybody has a camera and you see people, the under the arm shot with the pictures. it's a great week out here. >> it's amazing. we're going to have a lot more of this, too. i'm thrilled that they got that shot and it was your -- >> believe me, if they had gotten a lot of other shots there would be a scattering. >> i like the color commentary. he's a smart guy and that your partner may not be as smart. i thought that was very kind. >> andrew, elk yesterday told me that he almost was a debater and he almost went to harvard on a scholarship, a debating scholarship. >> you have to let the commentators know about that. >> faherty is great and he has a show -- >> i thought that was you. >> but he has a show on the golf channel that's so huge for that network. i immediately hit him up when i

saw him up there. when can can i be on the show? well -- quid pro quo. he can come on here. >> he'll be joining us later this morning, too. all right, guys, when we come back, we have at&t chairman and ceo randall stevenson. this is his first television interview since the company's deal for t-mobile fell apart. we'll tell you what he has to say about regulators in washington and what the deal falling apart means for the consumer. first, though, as we head to break check out the global market headlines.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're coast to coast this morning. let's check on futures. the dow down a little bit, around 60 or so. 66 earlier. s&p down about eight points. as for the european markets, i think general rethinking the initial optimism on the greek deal. we're down about almost a percent. three-quarters to a percent. the dax down 0.9. the cac down 0.77, andrew.

i think your take on greece is the markets' take this morning, not enough, and even what was there, there are doubts about. >> i'm glad i'm with the market them. >> maybe they're all following your lead. >> i was this way yesterday but we got a little bit of news -- >> was i too excited when i reported -- >> everybody was very excited. >> it was flashing news that said greece -- >> i wasn't convinced. in other news this morning linkedin's fourth quarter profit rose 40%. revenue more than doubled topping forecasts. the professional social networking site added 14 million new profiles bringing its total to 145 million. more companies also paying to get additional access to members and data as the u.s. economy has been adding more jobs in recent months. the full-year outlook is above analyst forecasts. shares dipping in late trading. take a look at what's going on there. >> interesting. >> still a good deal if you were in on that ipo originally. >> interesting economic barometer. people want more access to dat

at that base because they're looking for people -- a quick note, goldman sachs saying there's meaningful upside risk to its forecast of 1.5%. at that talks about how much mo there is in the economy and they note there's been six months of upside surprises. >> how much mo as in moj sno. >> momentum. >> i thought you were going with mojo. let's get back to some folks with real mojo out in pebble beach, becky and joe are out there. becky has an interview i'm very excited about. becky? >> we do. real quickly can we ask neel kashkari about that. there is some risk to their forecast at this point for gdp growth. does that come as a surprise to you? >> to the upside is what they're saying. remember, this is all happening on the back of massive central bank intervention. with the ltro taking the risk of default off the table, and in the u.s. the fed's quantitative easing -- >> more to come.

and then their language changes. don't lose sight of how powerful that is. this is positive but the questions are what are the long-term engines. this is a short-term boost. we don't know the answer to that yet. >> andrew talked about an interview we have coming up. back in december you may recall at&t withdrew its $39 billion bid for its rival t-mobile. that failed to gain support from the justice department and the fcc. at&t's chairman and ceo randall stephenson sitting down and talking with us in his first on-camera interview with us. he talked about why they got into the deal to begin with and why it is so important to what's happening with spectrum and why consumers need this. listen in. >> the reason we did the deal in vet beginning is because we as an industry have a serious issue facing us in terms of the amount of spectrum available for the services we're bringing. you think about the mobile internet and why this transfired over the last five years. since 2007, early 2007, the

amount of traffic we carry on our mobile data network is up 18,000%. in our industry capacity is wireless spectrum. and we're in a situation we're beginning to see exhaust situations in the spectrum. we entered into the t-mobile transaction as a way to try and address the spectrum exhaust situation. now the government has decided they didn't want that transaction to go through, and so that is what it is. it doesn't change the fact that we still have the spectrum crisis or as chairman of the s.e.c. calls it a spectrum crunch. and so to address this the government is going to have to do something which means bring more spectrum to the market. bring an option to play and put more spectrum in the marketplace. unfortunately, we've not brought new spectrum to the market for five years now. and congress does have legislation that the house has passed or is working to pass, i should say. the s.e.c. has concern with the language into that bill. we're hopeful that they can

address that in short order and get the spectrum to market. it's very important for the industry. >> randall stephenson talked about how the spectrum prices, as they call it, is creating all kinds of problems. as a result he says at&t has had to raise prices for consumers. they did just last month. he says this is a direct result of the idea there's a limited amount to go around. there's no other way to get it. they've been incredibly frustrated by what's hapd in wa washington and if you read through on all of that you get the idea that while the fcc stopped this deal because they were looking out for what they said was the consumer, his point is consumers paid more for this because this deal didn't go through. now we'll have more from mr. stephenson later in the program. he also talked about what they hope happens down the road and, andrew, some of the things that have come out of washington that could be problematic. he will talk more about that when we have more from him just

a little later in the program. >> becky, did he talk at all -- did he regret pursuing the deal? did he say i had to do the deal and i'm happy that we tried? did he say i would have -- i'm happy i did it but i would have done it differently if i could do it again? >> no, i think they're frustrated that it didn't happen. i don't know that you're going to hear him say he wished he hadn't done it. this is a deal they needed to do to get the company where it needs to be. but i don't think you'll have them going back and showing serious remorse. at this point you just move on. >> all that commentary about the big breakup fee but i think it was two or three months cash flow. in the grand scheme of things. >> the government is going to end up eating some of that breakup fee, also, which is classic in that so many things that the government did seem to be counter intuitive to what we're trying to -- i wasn't going to get involved in this because we're at the at&t golf tournament, you know what i mean? i have talked to you many times,

andrew, and your dad is an antitrust lawyer and we've differed on whether you use that antiquated formula which worked so long ago in an innovative marketplace like where we are right now and whether t-mobile has a chance on its own anyway. are we protecting t-mobile's chanc chances? they have no -- and that's why i question the whole rationale of questioning at&t on it. i question the justice department and is the justice department doing this for their own purposes because they're seen as toothless from the bush administration? they let comcast go through so they had to make a stand here so 99% of the country doesn't get the spectrum. i don't know. i wasn't going to get involved but i knew you would ask that question. i knew you with ask that question. we've had caruso cabrera on with you the last couple of days, right? >> absolutely. >> has she been there? >> i've been slapped around. she did very well. >> without her i thought you would have been simulcasting on

msnbc. >> joe, it's so good to see you. i'm glad you had a great week out there. we're going to come back to you in just a moment. in the meantime coming up, he's worn many titles, treasury secretary, director of the president's national economic council, harvard president, larry summers will be sharing his view of the world, greece, the euro and the u.s. economy. that's all coming up next. and then later sir martin sorrell, the advertising power player, is going to be squawking on everything from ad spending to facebook. that's coming up at 6:45 a.m. eastern. but first, as we head to a break, take a look at yesterday's winners and losers. it was wonderful. >> bravo. >> i loved that. >> it was great. >> well, it was pretty good. >> well, it wasn't bad. >> there were parts that weren't very good, though. >> it could have been better. >> i didn't really like it. >> it was pretty terrible. >> it was bad. >> awful. >> take him away. oo!

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman, this is a bi-coastal edition of "squawk box." we're out here in -- i guess we're functional sort of in monterey, carmel by the sea where we're sitting. i hear new zealand is nice but everywhere else i've been this is the nicest place. >> you forget how beautiful this

is. >> almost makes up for some of the chunky chip shots. that's hard to say. chunky chip shots. let's check out some of today's top stories -- >> ernie and astos. >> plucking. i said plucking. the greatest drop since the depths of the global financial crisis. the data raised concerns about the strength of chinese domestic demand which has shielded the country from the economic effects of weakening exports as they try to move from less of an export driven country to a domestic consumption. the chairman of the house financial services committee, meanwhile, spencer bachus, is reportedly the subject of an insider trading probe. the congressional ethics office began the investigation -- becky, yes -- the investigation late last year. the alabama republican was highlighted in a "60 minutes" piece in november about lawmakers allegedly profiting from inside information.

the house and senate recently passed measures tightening those rules. "the wall street journal" reported bachus made several suspicious trades during the financial crisis in 2008 as the fed and the treasury sought to stabilize the markets. >> we were just with bachus down in washington. >> who did we ask -- >> i thought we asked him about it. >> we asked someone else about it and they said, yes -- >> was it isa? >> i think it was who said, yes, it was. we asked spencer bachus? no, no, no. no, he didn't. i don't think we asked him. >> we did ask someone, maybe it was the chairman we talked to about these issues but, wow. we'll have to revisit this and go back to washington. but here at pebble beach, the captains of industry, big-time sports and movies stars, former cabinet members, they all get a chance to play for charity. there is a lot of fun that happens here but plenty of buzz about business, the health of

the economy and greece. that's what happens when you put all of these people together in one place. yesterday we got the chance to catch up with the former treasury secretary, larry summers, and we spoke with him about the implications of what would happen if greece ever did leave the euro. >> that could be a very major event. certainly for greece. the greek banking system stability depends on its having access to the european central bank just as our bank stability depends on their having access to the fed. if greece is not part of the euro, they're unlikely to have that kind of access and that would have consequences for the greek banking system. what it would mean for -- what it would mean for the rest of europe would depend on what kind of precedent is set, how it happened, whether investors became concerned that other countries would leave the euro as well. if those concerns became pervasive, they could set off runs and be a very, very serious situation indeed. if whatever happened was managed

in a way greece was seen as separate and unique, then the consequences would be much less serious. >> i've heard people argue it could be a stronger euro if greece pulled out, if it was greece and greece only. >> i think that the question is where the line is drawn and once greece has pulled out after so many assertions for so long, that greece would never pull out, that no one would ever leave the euro. i think it would raise some questions about other countries and that's why it would be a hugely consequential act, much better if negotiated agreements can be found that provide for substantial consensual debt relief for greece, provide for structural reform in greece. that's the avenue people are going down, and that would be the preferred avenue if it can succeed. >> again, that was former treasury secretary larry summers with his thoughts on what's been

happening. after we had seen the headlines that greece leaders made some sort of austerity deal and that things were great and looking very good. i asked them, does that make you feel good about things and an all clear? well, not just yet and he was absolutely right when you see the headlines that come back out this morning. i guess i'm surprised by the idea the market is only down -- the dow is only indicated down by 60 points this morning. after you hear this deal is on the rocks and the eu has told the greek leaders they have could come back, come up with something better, it was very, very difficult for them to get to this point. >> right. >> what does this mean? >> that the markets never had can ha confidence. that even when they reach a deal it is actually going to be a solution for the greek debt issue. when and how are they going to achieve debt sustainability, when and how are they going to achieve economic growth? because at the end of the day they need to grow and there's no greek growth in the foreseeable future and so i think the market already understood that. that's why they're not that upset that this deal may not be coming through the way they

thought it should. >> it's already been baked? >> there's a lot more down side risk and this solution is not a solution at all, unfortunately. >> one of the subheadlines that insaw within some of this today, the greece news this morning, is that the eu wants to be much more involved in tax collection because it's obviously been a huge problem for many, many years in greece if not for forever in greece. the idea of you can have all these taxes but if it no one is paying them what's the point? >> exactly right but how do you do that practically? how do you have a sovereign country and have a third party come in and actually administer their tax collection? it sounds fine conceptually. it's incredibly difficult to pull off in practice and it really questions what sovereignty means. that's are questions that the kcountries of europe have to wrestle it and it may take many years to resolve it. >> it's something we talk a lot about around the set but i can't imagine not talking about this. i think this is something that lives with us for years to come

at this point. >> real quick for neel, does something get solved pre-march 20th when this big payment is due? >> i believe so. i think it's likely something will get solved, but i think the markets also know that's not going to be a long-term solution. it's just going to be another interim step, a short-term stability measure. what is the long-term solution we're all waiting to see? >> but is it a sideshow or something we should be hanging on every word that comes out of greece. look at the claims number yesterday, look at the last employment report, look at corporate profits and the way the market has been acting. we're focused. we certainly are focused on greece. are we too focused? >> i don't think so. >> really? >> the equities guy at pimco, right? so we're buying stocks -- >> i hope so. >> there's still of lot of underlying risk that we should not forget about. remember just a few months ago markets were panicked the other direction. just a few months from now i suspect we're going to be back in a risk off mode scared again when these things re-emerge. >> what do you say the multiple

of the s&p is right now on 2012 earnings? what's your calculation? >> global indices, world is probably around 14 times. >> here? >> around 12 or 13 times, somewhere in there. >> something is holding that back a little bit especially under 2% paper, right? >> sure. i look at it and i say look at the u.s. economy. for 30 years we borrowed to consume. that got us into the mess. now we're looking for new engines of economic growth. they're very hard to find. so what's happening in the short term is stimulus, quantitative easing, trying to get borrowers to consume more, consumption will not lead our way out of this. new engines of economic growth and until we do the short term band-aids. the analogy is it's like a nasal decongestant. it makes you feel better but it does nothing to cure the underlying disease. >> now you have us thinking about snot in the morning. >> there was a lot of pollen -- i had a horrible day. andrew, 30% is still --

>> you know what, joe, 30% -- i was laughing at you for 30% but since is -- no, but -- >> when were you latching at me? >> to your face. never behind your back. >> under your breath a little bit? >> i was like, oh, 30%. i was rolling my eyes a little. since november we're up 20% already. so it's not really -- >> oh, yeah, i might do -- >> the year can be november to november. >> i may do that. like the tiger slam. it didn't have to be a calendar year, does it? >> it does not. we won't hold you to the 30%. you may be right this time. >> yes, we will. >> we'll come back to pebble beach in just a moment. great stuff out there. the if you have comments, questions about anything you see here shoot us an e-mail squa squawk@cnbc.com is our address. we'll be talking the commercial indicators with martin sorrell joining us with a look at what ad spending tells us about the state of corporate america and the u.s. economy, plus we have much more from pebble beach with joe and becky including bill murray.

welcome back. futures continue under pressure this morning. the dow would open 67 points lower than the s&p and that's worse in the last several minutes. you get the general idea here. it looks like greece coming off right now is really what's remarkable. >> yep. from campaign ads to super bowl ads, that is what some are calling the effect. and guess who is here? sir martin sorrell. like the shoe. >> i get upset. >> you are the ceo and you are here to explain what that means

exactly. explain that first. >> every political cycle, every four years we have an american presidential election. we have winter and summer olympics every four years. we have world cup, european championships. so that creates that quadrennial effect. we will spend up another 1% more, 1.5% more, than it would have been. the issue is in 2013 for example, we don't have those events. 2014 we come to a world cup. we come to the midterm congressionals again. and we have a winter olympics as well. you have that quadrennial effect which stimulates spending. the other thing wye we touched on just before we came on air, i do think you said there's more confidence. that is more fear about. >> no, but i said more confidence that advertisers are spending more money but you say

there's more fear. >> it's a reverse confidence. they're not investing in capacity. they're not investing in quicksed capital equipment in the western economy. in the fast growing markets, the ne next, they are investing in capacity and they're investing in brand behind that but essentially we're getting a positive double whammie and we saw it even into january. it started in january, continued investment in brand rather than fixed capacity. >> fascinating view of the super bowl. >> first the overall quality or interest. i thought they were -- it was not the best crop and my theory was it was a failure or a fear of taking risk in that you make good commercials when you take risks and that these guys were not willing -- >> steve, i thought it was an economic indicator for you. >> that's what i'm saying. the other thing i noticed, martin, there was not new

companies out there, the go daddies were there but these were new companies. where were the new companies? >> i think that's a fair comment but i think there's a lot of money being spent. this anticipation of you haranguing me on this, there's a lot and highly variable quality. i have to be careful for what i say for obvious reasons but one or two standouts which i won't go into because you'll push me on that. >> you can't say two standouts and then -- what are the standouts? why they clients? >> some were. some weren't. >> then at least tell me -- >> on average about one in three shot. >> so you don't upset the clients, at least give credit -- at least give credit to the nonclient. >> i think the fact you are sitting here on "squawk box" talking about several of them sandwiched between larry summers and clint eastwood out in pebble beach early in the morning, obviously the fact that you are talking about some of these ads on an august program like "squawk box" tells you a little

bit about what's going on. there's one point these prerolls we have on facebook, on youtube, are maybe -- >> the buzz. >> do you think next year that will go away? it has to be social? we have to but the out the ads? advance? >> no, it's an integrated world. what you're going to see is more of that stuff. >> are the clients coming to you and saying i want an ad that will maintain my market share not one that's going to either increase or take some risk to forge ahead. >> no, maintain or increase. the point you were making is a really important one and it goes back to some of the analysis alan greenspan said many, many years ago. he looks at statistical indices of fixed capital formation on u.s. financials, in u.s. nonfinancials and sees little lift in that. i think that's the key that what you do is at times like this when boards are frightened of making decisions, the average life of a ceo is four, four and

a half years. chief marketing officer rolls over every two years. on average. in those situations you invest in the brand to maintain share or or increase share. they don't come to us, we go to them. >> i have to send it back to pebble beach but one last question, would you buy the facebook ipo. >> god you always put me on the stock. depends on the pricing. for my grandkids i would buy it. >> thanks very much. back to you, becky. >> andrew, thank you very much. sir martin great to see you. >> good to see you. aren't you lucky to be up at 3:00 in the morning. >> we are. when we come back more of "squawk box" from coast to coast and later he joined us last year on this very set, and then he went on to win the at&t pro-am so could we be bill murray's lucky charm is? he'll join us at 8:40 a.m. eastern time.

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was okay but then i missed that putt which i shouldn't have and my progot up four. 17 is the classic, that's where the tom watson was in the cabbage behind the green and chipped it in, but it's a difficult hole anyway and i birdied the previous hole and bogeyed that and gave one of the strokes back. it's frustrating. >> i don't know how you play with others watching in the gallery. >> i want to show you guys something because i was able to, i played a practice round earlier and the president was behind our group. >> president bush? >> former president w. bush. there were people in front of me. the whole place was, i want to show you i won some money. as a warning to all of us, here is what i was able to win, the bet for 100 trillion, that is

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hollywood and hyzynga. >> doing the bull dance, feeling the flow. >> working it. >> "squawk box," live from pebble beach, california, coming up, movie star and director clint eastwood. >> i once in a while step in front of the camera though i enjoy myself behind the camera. >> at&t's randall stephenson. >> we do not have a jobs crisis in america. we have a capital investment crisis. >> there is a prospect we're going to break out of the tepid growth. >> another big hour to tee it high and let it fly. >> oh, he got out of that one. >> fore!

"squawk box" ginb"squawk boxb"s. >> good morning, everyone. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen in pebble beach, california. back at cnbc headquarters, andrew ross sorkin and steve liceman, and of course neel kashkari our special guest this morning. linkedin, revenue more than doubling, the earnings topping forecast and linkedin added 14 million new profiles, bringing the total to 145 million profiles. the social networking site says more companies are paying for more access to its site. shares of linkedin slipping in some of the late trading. video gamemaker activism blizzard "call of duty modern warfare 3" but activision below

expectations. clint eastwood starred in chrysler's halftime america super bowl ad. you might think he was in favor of what came with the auto bailouts but you should think again. eastwood spoke to "squawk box." >> we're talking from this time on, that's what the whole idea was from this time on, from now on we got to forget the bailouts were right or wrong. in my opinion, i'm not a pro with that, i think if companies don't have the ability and they're not run well enough to exist, then they should go into bankruptcy and work their way out of it. that's where the creativity comes in. people have to get creative when the pressure is on, and that's

exa exactly what happened, but you know, some people feel it's great to pour out a lot of dough, but you pour out a lot of dough, somebody has to pay it somewhere. >> that was clint eastwood speaking about the auto bailouts, which he had spoken out against at the time, and he says even though he did do this ad for chrysler he still thinks that was not necessarily the way to go. a lot of people, guys, who looked at that ad and thought it was politically motivated, karl rove thought it was an endorsement of president obama. >> which raised a lot of eyebrows because clint, he's not a completely apolitical character. >> he was mayor of carmel and ran as republican. >> people were like where was that from but he made it more clear. >> we ran some of that interview earlier where he said anybody who looked at this and took political implications away, he said he was shocked that people he thought were otherwise intelligent came away with those implications. he said that's not what it was about. >> people are not the actors,

they're not the characters they portray but with that .9, the magnum he used to fire, he's not a progressive. sorry, he's not -- >> he calls himself a libertarian now obviously. >> he's not going to be, probably not pushing for a governor. >> i saw the ad in the super bowl and figured -- >> becky? >> chrysler paid for it, so how could chrysler not be pro for the bailout. it seemed an auto company ad, advocating its own position. >> a fine company i might ad. >> it's worth recalling one of the auto companies were so much on their back because the asset-backed security market had shut down and there was no financing. neel can talk to that. i'm not shaying there weren't huge problems but one of the things the government helped

with was the idea of the car companies couldn't get financing and sell cars. that had nothing to do with the intrinsic problems of the car companies. >> ford did not need any of the money getting in but just in getting financing was important and it was important for a lot of companies. >> the bailout to the auto companies did not happen to help the auto companies. it happened because the collapse would have been disastrous for the u.s. economy. in another environment where the u.s. economy was stable we would have let them go on their own. >> steve you could also go by it was 20 years in the making also and japanese competition and everything else but i thought you would have gone to the overpaid ceos did agree to a lot of the concessions to organize labor that made the companies, i mean, no one twisted their arm. maybe their arm was twisted but these guys agreed to a lot of

the legacy issues thatinally put them under, too. >> that's true. they did make some restructurings that were out there. i don't know how much it had to do with overpaid ceos. >> i was channeling you for a second. >> i'm just confused why this has become such a partisan issue given that the bailouts effectively started with the bush administration. neel can speak to that and carried out by at bea maedthe a administration. >> in that was the ultimate kicking the can down the road. they gave almost bridge financing. >> it was a bridge because president bush didn't want to leave the new president with an economic catastrophe, let's try to stabilize and give the new president time to decide what to do. >> it's worth pointing out what's controversial is the way the obama administration executed it, favorism to unions over creditors. the concept was not obama's. it was the execution the point

people are critical of. >> clint eastwood was critical of the idea of using taxpayer dollars to do these things. >> becky, from what i read, he explicitly, and i'm talking about clint eastwood, when they were producing this commercial would not put the words "chrysler" in his own mouth. >> no, he did not and he spoke to us a little bit about that. he gave chrysler big kudos for paying such a huge amount of money, two minutes in the super bowl doesn't come cheaply and gave them kudos for allowing him to rewrite that and just have their logo at the very end of the commercial, that was his thoughts about trying to get america back up and running, didn't have anything to do with politics but didn't have a lot to do with chrysler either. >> joe, i thought you could read it either way, almost a pro-republican ad. you go in the locker room at

halftime, it's halftime in america, go out and see it the other way. >> locally or maybe in japan like some of the guys do where they're not seen but i can't remember he's ever done a spot. >> i don't recall seeing one but i wouldn't -- he's been around for a while. >> if you were a company you'd probably like clint to do -- >> i liked the m&m ad from a year ago a lot better. that was much more powerful for me than the clint eastwood ad this year. >> i didn't see politics in it when i saw it. >> me either. >> more thoughts from neel kashkari, pimco managing director and head of global equities. when you were talking earlier you mentioned, i asked you about the multiple and you went on the global and i understand that it is a global marketplace for equities right now. let's talk if you were domestic equities, you see a problem out of house like pimco buying top notch companies with 4% yields.

what is the, in a 2% ten-year note environment, what is the downside? what is the negative externality that would prevent you from buying pfizer or verizon? >> we are. >> you are? could you buy it with both hands if you were someone sitting at home? would you take all of your money that is in the money market and buy diversified portfolio of high yielding blue chips in. >> blue chips, we're buying blue chips, global companies that have strong balance sheets, healthy dividend payers so microsoft is selling in the higher growth market so yes but i would never tell a client put 100% of your money in equities and ride it. there's a lot of volatility and still risk >> what is the risk in buying, you know, like pfizer or whatever or a microsoft with a 3% or 4% yield. what is the risk? how does it happen isaa commercial paper market locks up again and we wonder whether

we're going to live. >> we've been through it and going to keep going through it. the risk on, risk off trade. sentiment is now the world is fine, severing great again. has there been any solution in europe, no. do we know what the long-term economic looks are? no. when you peer behind the data it's a tale two of economies. it's interesting, if you look at people who do not have a high school education, they had about 6% unemployment in 2006. today they're at 14%. educated americans with a college degree had 2% unemployment in '06, today they have 4%. so the educated people in our country have jobs, can get new jobs, can get loans or buy cars or buy houses, they're doing fine. the less educated people are really the ones left behind and so there's a lot of risk still underlying in the economy. i'm bullish about equities, we're finding good stocks around the world that we like and buying and also being careful, downside risk still exists

there. we cannot be blind to it. >> i don't know, that sounds like you're having your cake and eating it, too. i want to urge you to say i want to you buy a lot of the high yield in blue -- we love them with 50 times earnings in 1999, now we can't give them away with a 4% yield and ten times eern earnings. >> we're buying companies, higher quality companies is critical, buying them at the right price is critical. we're actively embedding tail risk hedging in many of our equity portfolios because we think the shocks are -- go back three or four months the last time i was on the show with you, the world was terrified of a european union unraveling. what has changed? the european central bank came out with their ltro, very powerful, three-year money for the banks but what happens at the end of those three years? we don't know yet so depending on what happens with the greek deal over the next month, fear could reemerge into the markets so i'm bullish on equities,

we're finding a lot of companies we like but there is still risk out there so managing the downside risk is critical. >> thanks, neel. more from mr. kashkari throughout the show. it's good whenever we talk about what happened back then and how we dealt with it, this guy was actually there. that's scarier than a three-foot putt in front of hundreds and hundreds of people? >> yes. >> yes. we are at pebble beach and some of the nation's leading ceos are gathering here for the at&t pro-am classic, that includes at&t's chairman and ceo randall stephenson. he joined us to tell us why washington needs to push more policies conducive for investment. listen in. >> you have to deal with a $15 trillion deficit. i hear discussion about is that really a big deal? it's a $15 trillion deficit. it has to be dealt with. we've discussed simpson-bowles.

i cthink simpson-bowles is one f the most logical, common sense approaches for dealing with this deficit that we've seen and a nice piece of work. it's disheartening washington has not been able to coalesce around this particular idea, this particular concept, plan, if you will. it is a place where it seems like both sides ought to be able to meet, it addresses the deficit from a rational standpoint. from our standpoint, it's uncertainty, and if you think about a business like thurz invests $20 billion a year, more than any company will invest in the united states. what are the things that influence that investment, and from our standpoint, taxes on investment are really important and if you want more of something, if you want more investment, you need to tax it less and we're in a situation where the taxes on investment, dividend taxes, capital gains taxes, corporate profit taxes,

all in the air. it causes a lot of uncertainty in terms of how you play in your capital investment, in terms of how you return cash to your shareholders. what should your dividend policy be, how much should you invest in capital? there's a big overhang i believe in business today and i tell people this a lot. we do not have a jobs crisis in america. what we have is a capital investment crisis. if you're not investing in america you're not hiring in america, so we need to do things to bring certainty to companies that are investing, certainty in our tax policy and in our regulation. >> now, in case you missed that, randall stephenson said yes, $20 billion a year, that's the capex that at&t invests in this country, which is more than any other public company invests in america and that's the case not only last year but back to 2007, so when randall stephenson starts to talk about what he'd like to see from washington you would think this is a company that they actually might sit up

and take notice from. >> i think that's key. short term tax incentives are meaningless for businesses amaking long-term investments, whether it's at&t or intel, they make an investment over several years, a multiyear payback. we need long-term pro-growth economic policy to get companies like at&t to continue investing and create jobs. it's easy to create a job by having the government spent money but when that money turns off the job disappears so we need the private sector to invest and create long-term sustainable jobs. i couldn't agree with him more. >> we get through the election season, we have the house being elected. >> there are always elections. >> somebody trying to win back the house or lose the house, it's constant, it almost seems, it does kind of seem dysfunctional when you were trying to address the long-term issues. i don't know what the answer is. luckily we have the super pacs

to influence both sides equally. think about it, it's frustrating. >> neel, when you think about capital investment and you think of the cash on the balance sheets, you want them to make these investments. we all thought they'd make investments or do mergers. at&t tried, i don't know if that would have necessarily helped the economy per se, could have, depending on how you look at that. how do you see the cash getting spent and how do we inventivize them to make the capital investments or buying stock back or dividend or whatnot? >> well, you're right, andrew, i think that long-term pro-growth economic policy can have a powerful effect, contrasted with infrastructure investing where the government spends dollars on infrastructure. it takes multiple years before it can have an effect on the economy. pro-growth tax can change the moment before they're signed into law. their taxes will be lower, but

it increases the marginal incentives to invest and increases certainty and that by itself can have a powerful psychological effect and get companies investing again. >> thanks, neel. go, steve, you had a question? >> i just wanted to say, you took a tick down in futures and i don't know if had anything to do with this, the greek far right party leader said he cannot accept this deal. he's part of the governing coalition, i was looking up how big this party is, looks like they got 5% of the vote in '09, trying to figure out exactly how big it is but he was quoted a couple days ago saying he expected the parties to come to an agreement, whether or not that's the reason we ticked down 100 on the dow, i don't know, but those headlines just crossing right now, and he says the imf chief should be a persona non-grata in greece, a party known for rather extremist comments. >> we'll get back to pebble beach. if you have comments or

questions about anything on squawk, shoot us an e-mail sidewa squawk@cnbc.com. next, clint eastwood talked to becky and gave his reaction to the critics on the super bowl ad and later becky talks to former treasury secretary larry summers, teeing off on the u.s. economy, the economic recovery hopefully and all of that when we return. got a comment for the crew? share your thoughts by following "squawk box" on twitter, breaking news, guest updates and behind the scenes access to your favorite morning show is a click away. "squawk box" on cnbc is coming right back.

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♪ i'm picking up good vibrations ♪ ♪ she's giving me good citations ♪ ♪ i'm pick up good vibrations checking the futures right now, they recently took a turn for the worse. came back a little bit. they were down 60, then they were down 100, maybe on comments from the greek far right leader member of the governing coalition that they cannot accept the bailouts. other headlines this morning, the international energy agency cutting its oil growth demand forecast for a sixth month in

the row. the iaea saving its forecast by 250,000 barrels a day to 800,000, expects the global economy to expand by 3.3% in 2012 instead of 4%. andrew? when we return, more from pebble beach, california, where joe and becky are hanging out with some very interesting and cool people, and have a pretty good interviews going on. three leaders in the auto industry business legend wayne azinga, mike jackson and toyota's bob carter, what they have riding on innovation in the auto industry. first clint eastwood has been in the political line of fire over his chrysler halftime in america super bowl ad. eastwood responds to his critics when "squawk box" returns. but we couldn't simply repeat history. we had to create it. introducing the 2013 lexus gs, with leading-edge safety technology, like available blind spot monitor... [ tires screech ]

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♪ welcome back to a special edition of "squawk box." we are live in california this morning, where the at&t pebble beach national pro-am is teeing off. movie star and actor clint eastwood is part owner of pebble beach golf links. he's been taking a lot of heat

for his chrysler halftime in america super bowl ad. critics think eastwood was trying to send a political message. we got a chance to ask the legendary actor to set the record straight. >> the average man or woman on the street took it for exactly what it was, it was a core message for america, it's half way through the recession, let's work our way out of it. that doesn't mean we were, anybody's endorsing or any particular products or any particular philosophy. i'm surprised that people that are supposed to be intelligent have interpreted otherwise because it's very disappointing when you see that, because the average person seems to get it. >> the message, you were pretty involved with writing this and actually the message that was sent across. >> well, yeah, i wanted it to be just what it was, a message for the country. i got to give chrysler a lot of

credit, because that's a very expensive buy on the super bowl, and they were very willing to not have automobiles floating by every second and people pointing to automobiles and prices and you know all the kind of things that most car commercials are involved with, so they just put their logo on at the very end and that was fine by me, and it's a one-time-only deal. i got to give them a will the of credit for wanting to do something like that, because most companies when they spend that kind of money on a time buy, they want to get as much mileage as they can out of it. >> the message that you sent across was pretty basic, that this country is starting to turn things around and we need to make sure that as a country we can do it. can you talk more about what you see in the country right now? >> well, it's just the same thing, we've been in recession for quite a while now, and i've

seen a lot of those. i was born on the year of the great depression, not so great depression. so we've seen a lot of those. i think we just got to keep it going. unfortunately the country in recent years has been spending way, way out of control, so we have to kind of get that back in. but getting back to your question about the political ramifications, nobody was endorsing any bailouts or anything like that. it was all supposition. it's all somebody daydreaming out there, and there's some people who make a political element out of about everything you can talk about from where you're dining tonight or what on. >> again that's clint eastwood

describing what was behind his recent super bowl ad that he took a lot of heat for this week. >> i get it, and i don't know, just listening to him, there was another actor once that, actually a think a couple, but to talk about, morning in america, and the best days are head. you can say it these days but when you say it, you almost are wondering whether things have gotten to the point where, god help us if we start really thinking our best days are behind us, so it helps when someone reminds us that in this country, you're always going to be optimistic, the shining city on a hill, morning in america and i think that's what clint was trying to say at that point. >> joe? >> yeah? >> greg a piece leading with the eastwood commercial in "the economist" some say because of patriotism, he says politically minded. a better explanation may be timing. it coincides with the best evidence in months that

america's economy, led by manufacturing, really is on the mend. so it may be right, maybe it is halftime. >> right. you know, we've never questioned -- in the depths of these periods that we go through, maybe you questioned it a little bit. >> sure, but i would have found the ad much more compelling if he was walking through the streets of silicon valley looking at the facebooks and the googles of the world and the apples of the world that are changing entire industries, changing our ways of life for people all around the world and that's happening here at home in america and so look, we do have our challenges, we have a huge deficit problem, we have huge political dysfunction in washington but i wouldn't trade places with any other country in the world and as dysfunctional as our political system seems, over the long-term it gets the big stuff right. >> clint eastwood did make some comments about simpson-bowles. we'll have more of that in the next hour but he was very disappointed that simpson-bowles wasn't acted upon.

he'll talk more about what he'd like to see legislators really come back with some of the very ideas. >> there was a reason why we showed that $100 trillion -- >> is >> zimbabwe dollars? >> zimbabwe dollars. it's staggering you'd print this currency that needed to get to 100 trillion in circulation and it's a metaphor, a hyperbolic, i don't want to say we're going there obviously but europe, the drakma might take that route. you know what is after a trillion? >> quadrillion. >> right, with yen and pesos and lira, with he immediate it. follow us online at at, @squawkcnbc. >> it's just heard to read if

they don't put the dash. >> they've been tweeting about you and your shots on the golf channel. >> oh my god. >> and about andrew's sweater. >> andrew, i thought we had already laid that to rest. anyway, coming up the newest toyota prius line may cost thousands less than you think, part of an effort to make the country more fuel efficient but you have to drive a car that looks like a cheese wedge. wayne huizenga, bob carter and mike jackson next. later on, a hole in one with actor bill murray, when he stops by our pebble beach set. he's a varmin kong, the kidding around is pretty much over here. one golden crown. come on frank how long have we known each other? go to e-trade. they got killer tools man. they'll help you nail a retirement plan that's fierce.

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welcome back to "squawk box." let's look at some of the headlines we're following on this friday morning. protesters clashing with police in greece. unions are launching a two-day strike against planned austerity measures. the police have been responding with tear gas this morning,

after thousands threw fire bombs and stones at those members of the police. things have gotten a little more heated. you've heard the back and forth with the headlines with the greece officials yesterday saying they had reached a deal. the eu apparently sending them back to the drawing board at this point. meantime the chairman of the house financial services committee, spencer bacchus is reportedly the subject of an insider trading probe. the congressional office began that investigation late last year. the alabama republican was highlighted in a "60 minutes" piece in november about lawmakers profiting from insider information. in 2010 the "wall street journal" reported that bachus made several suspicious trades during the financial crisis in 2008 as the federal reserve and the u.s. treasury sought to stabilize the markets. and overall video game sales dropped by 34% in january because of a lack of new titles and consoles. mpd says games launched during the holidays did poorly, hurting

sales of older titles that might get picked up as an impulse buy. the futures under quite a bit of pressure. the dow is down by triple digits, down 100 points, likely largely because of the headlines coming out of greece, some of the pictures that you just saw. the s&ps down by 12 and andrew back over to you. >> thank you, becky. there's a bullish argument to be made for more affordable fuel-efficient vehicles. with us to discuss innovation in the auto industry and more, wayne huizenga, chairman of huizenga holdings, bob carter, great to have you all three on the broadcast. bob, you guys have a new prius out that only costs about $19,000, about $5,000 less than the 2012 prius, and i'm curious

how you were able to make it cheaply and what margin you'll get on a vehicle like that when you think about innovation like that. >> well, you're right, consumers are looking to are more mpg and higher fuel efficiency in the market today, so we took our prius and expanded it into a whole family of vehicles, in the fourth quarter with he made a larger prius, called the prius v and just this week introducing the new prius c, 53 miles per gallon with a starting price of a little more than $18,900. so it's a great price, great value, and one of the highest mpg vehicles any consumers can buy. >> mike jackson, speak to this issue when you think about the percentage of vehicles, fuel-efficient vehicles prius-like vehicles, hybrids, et cetera, that you're selling off the lots these days, how big a business is that this year and where do you expect that to be let's say two or three years out from now? >> first and foremost i would

say the industry is investing in fuel efficiency like i've never seen in my entire career, so the industry is all in with a whole range of technologies, but the big question is, is the american consumer going to embrace it, and if you tell me the price of gasoline six months from now or a year from now, i can tell you the market share that hybrids will have. we've seen it at a peak of almost 3%, and last year it was down in the low 2%, so at $3, $3.50 a gallon of gasoline, they care about fuel efficiency but they'll make a lot of other trade-offs, you get north of $4 a gallon and there's a stampede to fuel efficiency. but i think that the big message is, the industry is all in on fuel efficiency. >> mike, what about the way a lower price point can change market share, if they can get down and offer something around 19, and also if they close the gap with a similar regular gas

engine? >> there's no question getting to a lower price point, is a tremendous help, because it is a tradeoff between the up front cost of the technology, as compared to when you get a return on that, and the government does a calculation that says look at how much money you save over 15 years. i got news for you, the american consumer sitting back in the kitchen table i want my money back in two or three years on the technology and that's what you have to meet and the new technologies you're absolutely right are competing with the internal combustion engine which made tremendous strides over the last five years and we have cars that are internal combustion engines to get 40 miles to the gallon on a regular basis, moved the bar for hybrids and the prius c is about 53, 54 miles per gallon, so you're absolutely right, there's intense competition from traditional engines. >> wayne, i want to bring you into the conversation. when you think about government policy related to autos, related

to fuel efficiency, related to the type of tax rebates and other things that the government can be doing on this subject, what would you like to see? >> i'd like to see all of the above, whatever you mentioned. they're all good, anything we can do to increase productivity, cars are getting better every year, and we need to sell more. >> but when you think about, there's an issue here. a, we don't know where fuel is going to go, i don't know what your view is on oil over the next year. some people think it's going to go up. if it doesn't, you know, as mike said, we may run into trouble in terms of selling these vehicles and then it changes the economics for bob over toyota. >> yeah, but the price point is a key issue, i think, and that, low prices always wins. >> andrew, the industries investing in fuel efficiency technology for the first time strategically, open-ended, full commitment, billions of dollars,

the only question is whether the american consumer will follow but that's different in the past where the industry really fought fuel efficiency from a regulatory point of view, and -- >> hey, mike? >> sometimes in, sometimes out, now they're all in. >> mike, we need 14 million units of annual rate. do we hit 15 this year? >> no, no, no, for 2012, 14 million units on the high forecast offed range. january it was 14,100,000 units. look carefully within that, though, 20% increase in car sales only 4% increase in trucks, which says to me and i think bob would you agree there's a lot of fleet business in january but still it's a good start for the year. >> right. we got to leave it there, a special thank you to wayne huizenga, mike jackson and bob carter, good luck at the conference today. we'll now toss it back to joe in pebble beach on the other side of the country, joe.

i feel we are see close but so far away. >> it's amazing, though, isn't it, that we can do this, just do it so seamlessly. up next, what's it going to take to get the u.s. economy back on trunk -- track, out of the bunker, it says here, we'll talk to former treasury secretary larry summers, sounds off on this and much more. i don't know if we talked about that great scene in "the social network." i talked to him about it out here and we don't want to make it get lost in translation. we'll get another squawk moment with him, we'll be right back from fairway one at pebble beach.

♪ california love ♪ california futures indicated down a little business less than before. we were down triple digits in the implied open for part of the morning, now down about 89 points or so and we're keying off what happens in europe once again and a lot of that has to

do with what's happening in greece. we have had a pretty nice move and run-up to the year, getting back on the open today. >> this is a special edition of "squawk box," live at pebble beach, the captains of industry, sports and movie stars, former cabinet members play golf for charity and enjoy themselves. obviously when you gather a group of people like that together there is plenty of talk about business and the health of the economy. we talked to the former treasury secretary, larry summers, about his view of the economy after all the positive numbers that we've been seeing recently. listen in. >> becky, there are no certainties but the run of numbers for the last two months really have been consistently positive, consistently ahead of expectations, and do raise the possibility that the kind of virtuous circle we've been looking for has kicked in, virtual circles of rising income, rising employment, leading to increased spending, leading to more employment,

better pictures for families, leading to more people moving out of their parents' houses, leading to more demand for housing, helping the housing market, and that then helping the broader economy through its impact on housing construction and housing wealth. more confidence, leading to more investment, leading to more higher asset prices, all these virtuous cycles may be kicking in. now we can't be certain. >> right. >> there's been optimism in the winter of 2010, and optimism in the winter of 2011, so we've got to keep focused on moving the economy forward, but i do think that there is a prospect that we're going to break out of the tepid growth we have been seeing, and that for the first time in a long time, my feeling

is that if you take the consensus forecast, there are more risks to the upside than there are to the downside. >> that was former treasury secretary larry summers. our guest host is neel kashkari from pimco. people are wondering is this for real? are we really coming back out of this? what do you think? >> i'm more cautious. i hope he's right. we see the headline economic numbers that look positive to the upside which is great news but let's look underneath the surface. it's on the back of massive central bank intervention, the fed said they're going to keep rates pegged to zero until at least 2014, that's a long time, massive monetary stimulus and look at the consumption numbers. consumer, spending more which suggests they have more confidence, that's a good thing but they're saving less to do it. remember, back in the mid 2000s, consumers were saving nothing. after 2008 they started saving a little bit again because they got scared. now they're starting to save

less again. that is not a sustainable long-term proposition. we need to see consumption dollars going up because more americans are working and able to save and put money away and so short term spend something not our way out of this. we need long-term fundamental economic growth and unfortunately, i don't think we've got it yet but i hope so. >> what do you make of the unemployment numbers? a lot of us were surprised by the 8.3% number. it's great news if things are really improving, if people are actually getting back to work but we also have an incredibly low participation rate, 64% versus 67% on average, and do you think that that is affecting the unemployment rate overall? >> no, it is. there's no question it is. many americans have given up looking for a job. that makes the unemployment rate look lower, closer to 15% if you include all of those. >> have those people given up for good or will they come back when it looks like hiring is taking place? >> is it demographic because of the baby boomers or some given up? >> the longer they've given up

the harder it is, they may want to come back. if you've been out of work for two or three years it could be difficult to re-enter the workforce. >> it's not a sort of a paositie thing or is it people were confluent and not looking or natural progression of a demographic in this country? >> i hope you're right but i don't feel that. go back to something we talked ber about earlier, college degrees and above have 4% unemployment, there's no recession for the highly educated in america. the lower educated have very high recession. >> michael dell talked to us about that on the program, if you advertise for jobs in a warehouse people lined up to are a mile around the building. if you go looking for computer programmers, he's got to search and scour for every single person to fill the jobs. >> absolutely, we at pimco are hiring, we're growing. we get many, many resumes but very few who we think have the exact right skills we're looking for, so part of it is a skill mismatch, what jobs are needed

versus what's available. >> coming up, more hang time with our guest host neel kashkari from pebble beach. he's known for leading motorola, at&t on the list, what david dorman thinks is handicapping u.s. businesses right now and then eventually he began his career as an assistant greenskeeper, studying things like manganese and nitrogen. bill murray with an incredible cinderella story on "squawk box." hey, did you ever finish last month's invoices? sadly, no. oh. but i did pick up your dry cleaning and had your shoes shined. well, i made you a reservation at the sushi place around the corner. well, in that case, i better get back to these invoices... which i'll do right after making your favorite pancakes. you know what? i'm going to tidy up your side of the office. i can't hear you because i'm also making you a smoothie. [ male announcer ] marriott hotels & resorts knows it's better for xerox to automate their global invoice process

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we're back on this special edition of "squawk box" this morning. futures looking off, dow jones would open up about 96 points lower, s&p 500 off by 12 points and the nasdaq would also be off by 21 points. appearing from some pressure on the euro this morning, as people worry about what's going on in greece. joe has what's going on from pebble beach, back to you on the other side of the nation, joe. >> all right, andrew. coming up, we're going to have more from pebble beach, california movie star clint eastwood gives us his message to the american people and then we'll have more from that interview, and then, could we be bill murray's good luck charm? he won the at&t pro-am hours after appearing on "squawk box" last year. i don't know what he shot yesterday but the actor will try

his luck again by stopping by, so we got david dorman coming up, he's not a ceo, he's a chairman so he's allowed to be as good as he is at golf. what are you, a 6? 5? really good. anyway he'll be up to talk about some other stuff. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend.

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a special edition of "squawk box," becky and joe are live in pebble beach, california, tracking down ceos and celebr y celebrities, andrew and steve are holding down the fort at cnbc headquarters. this hour, david dorman, former motorola chairman and former at&t ceo. more of our interview with randall stephenson. >> as a customer becomes a smartphone customer, that customer becomes your tablet customer, they become your connected device customer. >> and clins eastwoclint east w. >> your parents tell you when you don't have $1 in xwlur pocket you don't spend $2. >> great bill murray will join us live. >> careful, fellow, are you my friend or enemy? you are my weapon. ooh! >> great shot. >> the third hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

>> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick, live from pebble beach, california. andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman are in engel cliffs, new jersey. . >> an exciting place to be in a relative basis compared to where you are. there's a lack of excitement over the greek agreement on austerity cuts, that lack or excitement seemed to have been short-lived. european ministers demanded further cuts -- >> just reporting the news -- >> $172 billion bailout to avoid

a greek bankruptcy. european officials want an extra $430 million in cuts as well as written guarantees the plan will be implemented after greece elects a new government in april. the two major labor unions called a 48-hour strike, docking ships and halting public transport. the euro hit two-month highs against the dollar but pulled back as eu ministers demanded further cuts. european equities at this hour across the board are looking lower, as is the euro and that's impacting futures this morning on this side of the bond. in earnings news this morning, steve, what's happening? >> linkedin fourth quarter profits rose 30% in revenue, topping forecasts. the professional social networking site added 14 million new profiles, bringing its total to 145 million. more companies are paying to get additional access to linkedin members and data as the u.s. economy has been adding more jobs in recent months, linkedin's full year outlook is

also above analyst forecasts. shares of linkedin in early morning trading, do we have that? there we go. they are up almost 9%. let's get back to joe and becky in pebble beach. >> all right, steve, thank you very much. as you know, legendary actor/director clint eastwood generated buzz from his appearance in the chrysler super bowl commercial sunday declaring halftime in america. >> this country can't be knocked out in one punch. we get right back up again and when we do, the world's going to hear the roar of our engines. yeah. it's halftime, america, and our second half is about to begin. >> eastwood also happens to be an investor in pebble beach, and we got the chance too catch up with him yesterday and talk to him about that ad, also asked him to set the record straight. >> the average man or woman on the street took it for exactly what it was, it's a core message

for america, like it's half way through the recession, let's work our way out of it. that doesn't mean we were, anybody's endorsing or any particular products or philosophy. i'm surprised that people that are supposed to be intelligent have interpreted otherwise because it's very disappointing when you see that, because the average person seems to get it. >> eastwood also made some comments about the bailout, spending in washington and simpson-bowles, what he would like to see happen. we'll bring you more of that interview later this hour. the chairman of the house financial services committee, spencer bachus is reportedly the subject of an insider trading probe. the congressional ethics office began the investigation late last year. the alabama republican was highlighted in a "60 minutes" piece in november about lawmakers profiting from allegedly inside information. the house and senate recently passed measures trying to

tighten insider trading rules. in 2010 the "wall street journal" reports bachus made suspicion trading in 2008 as the u.s. treasury sought to stabilize the market. what we have now that can be very interesting is someone who is there, let a's get more thoughts from guest host neel kashkari. you were paulson's point man on t.a.r.p., and how abreast did you keep congress of the things you were planning to do that was nonmaterial or nonpublic information? how much was that? >> when we went to congress to ask for the authority for the t.a.r.p., we had to explain to them just how perilous the situation was and so behind closed doors we had to share with them granular details about potential financial institutions that were in trouble, what the implications would be if the financial system collapsed on blue chip industrial companies, what it would mean for the american people and so you know,

i'm shocked to hear some of the allegations. we had republicans, democrats, the house and the senate getting full few of what we were thinking about what data we were getting from the banks so it's shocking to think any member of congress or senate would ever potentially trade on that information. it's shocking to me. >> i'm trying to figure out, i want to know the trades. i want to know when they were and whether they were short, long, banks. >> if they were long financial institutions after hearing some of these things. >> like something that was like long something, were you telling them that you were putting pressure on, say a large institution to buy a troubled -- >> no, but we were trying to give members of congress and senators a sense of how perilous things were, how much risk there was. >> that doesn't seem like enough info to, i don't know -- we all had an idea that it was very perilous. that doesn't allow to you make the right trade at the time. >> in the scariest moments of the crisis, i had a mortgage at

the time. i thought to myself i'm not going to be able to pay my mortgage because my money market is going to collapse. >> i know. >> i thought should i shift it to my bank account. i didn't do that because i had information that the american people didn't have about just how perilous the situation is. >> i moved my mother's -- >> you thought about the optics of -- >> it wasn't the right thing to do. i didn't think about the optics. >> i moved some of my mother's money so it would all be covered. >> you were saying that stuff on air every day. >> i was because of fdic. muhammad, our colleague and friend of the show said he was checking out, making sure the atm would work. that doesn't seem like it's non-public information. >> how perilous from the banks, there are strict rules in the executive branch, i own no individual stocks while he was at treasury and nor should i have, and it's simply i think that leaders need to be held to the highest standard and we need to hold them accountable for

that. >> if you said geez, we're turning the screws on bank of america to buy countrywide sr. something like that, if you gave bachus that type of information it would be one thing. telling him it's perilous, i want to know what the trades were. neel -- or steve? >> neel, obviously you were closely involved with t.a.r.p. and i think the bailout is going to be a big part of this election. i want to know how you feel personally when you hear the t.a.r.p. criticize the way it is, and it's coming from both parties, but i'd say particularly from the republican party. >> look i understand the criticisms, i understand the anger. no one wanted to use taxpayer dollars to bail out the banks or the auto companies. this violated all of our american beliefs in free markets and fairness. but bernanke had a great analogy, he said if somebody smokes in bed you'd like to let their house burn down to teach them a lesson but if their house burns down, if it burns down the whole neighborhood everybody's

affected so you have to put the fire out. i understand the anger. i hated that we had to do it but we had to do it and thankfully it was effective. >> has there been a problem in communicating that stuff or one of the things that people will never believe, that it was necessary, and it actually ended up helping the system? >> unfortunately you can never prove the counter factual. you can never say definitively what would have happened. you can try to explain it and people will draw their own conclusions. that has been tough to explain that. >> and neel, real quick, i was curious, when you think about everything steve just said, if you could do anything differently and you don't pursue the bailouts because clearly in my mind at least they worked, is there anything optically or related that you would have done differently now? >> it's so hard. the communications was the hardest part. the whole thing was hard. we had one microphone to speak to the american people and the markets so we simultaneously had

to project confidence to the markets and try to tell the american people what was at stake so our messages got muddled because of that dynamic. >> all right, great, thanks, we'll hear mo are from neel kashkari throughout the show and i'm going to tell you what's coming up, again. he was the chairman of motoro motorola, the ceo of at&t, now the non-executive chairman of cvs caremark but you knows business in america and what it takes to get it going. we'll talk to david dorman. still to come bill murray, his resume includes classics as "ghostbusters" "cass cadd caddieshack," "lost in translation" "what about bob." zombieville" "stripes" and he'll join us live in the next hour. >> "get low." >> yes. "squawk box" will be right back.

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good morning everybody. welcome back to a special edition of "squawk box." we are live in pebble beach at

the at&t pro-am, and while we've been here we got the chance to speak with at&t's chairman and ceo randall stephenson and talk to him about his company's smartphone business. listen in. >> the long-term profitability of the smartphone customer is actually higher than your standard feature phone customer, so we've been really aggressive at pushing the smartphone market since 2007, we attacked the market hard and it causes your margins and your earnings trends to be a little more lumpy, if you will but you look back over the course of 2011, our margins were close to 40%, our ebitda margins revenues were growing in the further quarter 10% in our mobility business and we love the smartphone business and another piece to it, we learn a customer becomes a smartphone customer that, customer becomes your tablet customer, this he become your connected device customer so it's a platform really to continue to build on

with our customer base. >> randall stephenson, the iconic brand that is at&t looked over the years that everything that has happened, broken up, now put back together, we went from randall the current ceo to a former ceo david dorman that had to try to maneuver threw those regulatory waters. how many years ago was that? >> so i left in 2006. >> 2006, you followed michael armstrong? >> exactly. >> he built a cable giant that subsequently was spun off now the -- >> that's right. >> and then we had whitaker come in and put humpty dumpy back together again for a monolithic company. >> there were ten large companies, the seven baby bells, gte, sprint, ati at&t, i think there are three after the mergers that occurred. >> you'd have to say and we'll

get to your current position, you've been in motorola and cvs caremark, et cetera, but what we want to get from you, all of your expertise in all of these different businesses but would you look with some pride that at&t is back to where it is. there's three companies that are sponsors down there. augusta gets pretty lucky, the masters for who they get, look who it is, exxon, ibm and at&t, and it's this company is back where it was, right? there was no guarantee it was ever going to be there. >> when you look back at the telecom act of '96, after judge green broke up at&t, we were sort of in a neverworld for that whole 13-year period. >> right. >> then the telecom act came and shot the gun and it was a race to see who could consolidate, build the biggest portfolio.

as you said mike armstrong went after cable to try to get the local believing that broadband was the key. i think the bell companies and at&t knew wireless was important but those that bet the most heavily on wireless ended up being the winner so verizon and the new at&t which is really sbc had dominant positions in wireless. if you look at where the market growth is today, it's turned out that wireless has been the real key play. >> all right, so what is your view -- what do you want to talk about for your expertise? now you took a much easier path, you're trying to maneuver through the health care industry at cvs caremark. >> sounds simpler. >> it's not, it's harder, isn't it, with the business cvs is in now in. >> any time businesses deal with unknowns it's very difficult to plan. you ta you can about looking to the future in health care, what will the health care reform act

actually mean as it's implemented and dmends on how congress funds it, what ends up being importanted and by the way what has been funded in the past that has to be reduced in order to cover some 47 million new lives with the amount of money that is not likely to grow. >> i like an act that says either at fordable care act, people say it with a straight face and if you're for obama care i don't know why it's preorive, you call it the health care reform. you didn't say either. >> come right down the middle. >> how do you try to prepare for that? you have to get the right ceo as a nonexecutive chairman and make the board do the right things in terms of governance. >> we had a situation situation a long time chairman ceo tom ryan who retired, we been ceo

since the beginning of cvs of 17 years and larry marleau, became a ceo, the board felt larry needed additional help with respect to governance issues and dealing with the board and more behind the scenes things which i had done at motorola working through the repair of motorola and a spin of the mobile device business so i finished that on may 5th and tom retired may 12th so i did have a week off. >> right. >> it's been terrific. larry has a great team around him but preparing for the future there, you know, cvs talks about having the integrated model, they have pharmacy business, the prescription benefit manager serving large customers which is a huge business in itself, over $60 billion, and then they have the in-store clinic so they have an integrated model, as you think about the future, managing cost and managing health care

outcomes, where patients need to stay on their medicines in order to stay out of the hospital. if they need to see a doctor, they don't have a doctor, going to the clinic and the store is a good alternative for that, and then we could either, you know, treat something simple and could be tested with a basic protocol, or we can refer them out to further care for some more serious illness, but that's working, you know, three years ago when we bought caremark, there was a lot of question about would this integrated model work. i don't think the financial community understood it. we have followed by retail analysts and the pbms, prescription benefit managers were followed by health care analysts. it was like well what is this thing? now if you look around and look at the performance of walgreens, medco, expressscript, some of our competitors, they're seeing the benefits of our model working on behalf of payers and customers. >> what's revenue at cvs? >> it was $107 billion in 2011.

>> is imbab way dollars? no, these are actual dollars. it's a huge market. it's a giant. people don't realize that. >> $120 billion projected in 2012. >> were you deliberately talking about uncertainty earlier like we hear so many people talking about, making a political comment that we need to square some things away before we get moving again? >> we have to plan for a range of outcomes we believe that we can win and do well because if you focus on serving both your payer customers as well as the patient actual consumers you'll do pretty well but it would help to know what are reimbursements going to be what is covered, not covered, how are you going to react and what are the payers going to have to pay in relation to what the government's paying. >> that's health care and then the financial services industry, with dodd-frank and everybody else with tax policy so if possible there is some regulatory and uncertainty.

>> in tax policy the case of cvs we have no international revenue, there's no bermuda corporation or ireland headquarters, it's all u.s. revenues. >> when is your tee time? >> 8:11. >> you had the range lit up for you personally, didn't you? >> i'm not that serious. >> you play like you are. thank you very much for getting up this early. >> my pleasure. >> we got time, we're done at 6:00, a little breakfast. >> absolutely. >> david thank you, we appreciate it. >> my pleasure. when we come back we'll have more of our interview with actor/director clint eastwood, his take on the definite ate and simpson-bowles. "squawk box" will be right back. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about that 401(k) you picked up back in the '80s. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like a lot of things, the market has changed, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and your plans probably have too. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we'll give you personalized recommendations tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 on how to reinvest that old 401(k). tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and bring your old 401(k) into the 21st century.

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welcome back, everyone. legendary actor/director clint eastwood declared it is half time in america when he appeared in a chrysler ad in the super bowl this sunday. we got a chance to talk to him about his message to the american people and another big issue he says the country needs to focus on right now -- cutting spending. >> absolutely, the last couple regimes have been, are putting us deep in the hole, and i don't know why it's so, such a basic thing, your parents always tell you, when you don't have $1 in your pocket, you don't spend $2.

and that's sort of basic philosophy of life, but some people think you can just put it off, if you put it off, then they print money, that means the money in your pocket becomes devalued, and it's not worth as much, and eventually it comes down to zero. >> have you seen simpson-bowles and some of the ideas that they had put forth, the panel that the president convened? >> yes. >> it's kind of gone away since then. >> i like the idea. in fact i was kind of amazed when they took the simpson-bowles and assigned them to this research, and then they came back with a recommendation which was exactly stop spending, and then everybody said that's enough of you guys, go home, and that's a waste of money, a waste of time, a waste of effort from everybody. it wasn't very spirited for the country when people would see that. i think simpson, i think both those gentlemen are smart, and

they had certainly worth listening to, if you'd gone ahead and assigned them to this project. >> they spent serious time and i heard behind the scenes both are upset. >> disenchanted. i heard simpson speak on that, and he's quite a humorous man, and he does have a humorous talk on how it went, and how it concluded. >> there have been ceos that we've talked to on "squawk box" who have said they would like to see a resurgence of this but you sound like you're throwing your support behind the idea, too. >> of what? >> simpson-bowles. >> absolutely. i don't know why the current administration assigned them to it if they weren't going to pay a attention to it. otherwise waiting to are people to tell you what you want to hear you can always get people to do that. obviously both of them, one is a democrat and one is a republican and they both came to the same

conclusion. >> again that's clint eastwood with his thoughts on simpso simpson-bowles. andrew? coming up breaking economic data, international trade numbers for december are just moments away, when "squawk box" returns. on december 21st, polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space, which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd and you still need to retire, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important. well, both are important. let's be clear.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're just a few seconds away from international trade data for december. rick santelli is standing by at the cme chicago with the number. rick? >> reporter: and december trade balance, of course, a trade deficit, grew on the red ink side from a slightly revised 47.1 deficit in november to 48.8 billion in december. now, 48.8 will be the highest since june of last year, so mid 2011, we obviously know what the story is today. now everybody wants to eat their hamburgers today and pay for them tomorrow, and that is going to be the market mover for the day, and when you throw that in front of a weekend, you know, there's a bit of exponential volatility growth there, yields fluctuating a bit but it seems to me if you look at equities and you look at the fx markets those will probably set the

initial tones for the day, and also maybe some of this movement affect the ultimate settlement of that supply of $72 billion we had this week so all of this is going to be fascinating. we have university of michigan sentiment survey coming up. it had a lofty level last month at 75, and even though i don't know that feel good indices really gives you a good glimpse of economic reality, especially those that happened at the end of the year, early in the new year, nonetheless a big one today. back to you guys. >> thank you, rick. taking it from here, looks like imports were up 0.7%, after declining 1% in november, sorry that's exports. imports up 1.3 and a lot of that looks like it was oil prices. let's bring in drew senior economist at ubs. good morning. >> good morning. >> it looks like it was in line more or less with consensus. what does this do to the fourth quarter gdp number?

>> while on balance the fourth quarter they were assuming a pretty wide trade deficit. this is going to have a marginal effect, maybe a tenth on the number. so not -- it shouldn't do too much. i think from my point of view what's a little more disturbing ubs were expecting we'd come down a bit, there should have been less exports from china, there's the whole chinese new year thing going on and we thought there'd be a decent amount of exports led by aircraft and so i think what's more disturbing we're not getting the trade deficit under control in the way we probably should. >> looked like aircraft exports were down. chairman bernanke yesterday mentioned the idea of trade with europe coming off, we haven't seen it already. how much of a concern is that for the economic outlook? >> well it is a concern. ubs we've estimated that about for every 0. off of european growth it takes about 0.3 off of

u.s. growth. in places like emerging markets you have to remember what we export are high capital intensive goods like aircraft, and low value-added goods like agricultural products so we don't have a lot of the midpoint of the range where we have to worry about other countries' consumers as much as maybe some other countries do. >> i want to get your economic outlook. 2.8 in the fourth quarter, disappointment given the character and the quality of the growth we had. what are you looking for, for the first quarter and are you on board with, seems like every other economist that thinks a slowdown is baked into the cake for 2012. >> we are not. we think 2012 looks a little better in 2011. first quarter we've had to take up the 2.3 from 1.5, largely as a result of the stronger than expected auto sales and also the employment numbers, and i think if you go throughout the year, everyone's really baking in this big slowdown from the government sector. we don't think the slowdown that we saw in the fourth quarter is going to be sustained. there was the same effect about a year prior to that, and while

government continues to be a drag, we do think the private sectors begin to gather some momentum. >> rick, it looks like the euro is a little bit weaker this morning against the dollar. it looked like fixed income had a little bit of a minor rally. it seemed like it was based on some comments out of greece, i guess the whole idea that they had a deal yesterday is kind of coming apart. what's been the reaction down there to the greek news? >> reporter: about a half a dozen basis points shaved in the kind of, you know, last hour or two on the ten-year note yields, might even expand that a bit. it was around 2.02, 2.03 several hours ago and dropped from 1.3275 to 1.3175. you could be a soothesayer of the knack activity coming out of the eurocrats and you're not going to get rich trading the euro unless you catch every

turn. steve we don't agree on everything but i remember a couple of years ago we had big agreement, you said you can't swim away from the value of another currency. the linkage between two major currencies that aren't having their major day in the sun. >> right. >> reporter: that's not the issue. the financial stocks, you know, the banking stocks, there's other ways and i think you're going to see all those other sectors mostly in the equity complex probably pretty value tile over there. >> it's what we call losing the contest for the world's ugliest currency. >> reporter: yeah, see, i agree with that! >> so far the u.s. is losing, let me get one more quickly from drew, drew, your thoughts on the federal reserve here, there's some econ shops on wall street think the fed coming in with qe3 is baked in the cake. are you eating that cake, drew? >> we are not. in fact, we think it's not likely. the improvement in the labor market's got to have caught them off guard. bernanke is playing it close to the chest but i don't see any

rationale for qe3, absent some horrible thing coming out of greek and by that i moon a second banking crisis. >> let's leave it there. santelli doesn't want it, you don't think it's coming. i think you're probably right nlgs there unless there's a huge step down from greece, if we can maintain a 2.0, 2.5% growth, i don't think there's reason for it coming. rick? >> that's why you're brilliant, steve. >> he is brilliant. >> that's why we bring drew on,u.s. to say that. >> he's done it all. thanks to rick and to drew and to steve. steve. >> thank you. i'm supposed to read this now. >> you are. >> thanks rick and drew. coming up more of our interviews with ceos and celebrities from pebble beach. "squawk box" coming right back. i think they'll have bill murray. >> a legendary actor joins us on set. >> i think i got a shot. >> the great bill murray. keep watching "squawk box." ♪

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the average man or woman on the street took it for exactly what it was, and the core message for america, like it's half way through the recession. let's work our way out of it. that doesn't mean anybody's endorsing any particular products or philosophy.

i'm surprised that people that are supposed to be intelligent have interpreted otherwise because it's very disappointing when you see that, because the average person seems to get it. >> i want to go from clint, who is obviously iconic, to someone who at this point, do you know that, that you've reached icon level, bill murray? thank you for joining us. >> good morning. i've reached some level here. or sunk to it, one way or the other. >> in the past, and i've mentioned this to you personally, there of a time out here where i think you went in to, you took that lady into the bunker and i think you had like a hat on with a little ball that was spinning around like that and golf they try and make it i guess, there's some heritage we go back to bobby jones and all of the pomp and circumstance, and there was a time where maybe they thought you were crazy out here, and now, you are on every single marketing material that

at&t has for pebble beach, there's a picture of you, sort of a water color of you like tipping your hat to the crowd as you won -- cinderella story you got to admit last year. >> winning the tournament last year was dreamy. >> high point of your life? >> i don't know if it was the high point of myself life. you a my life. you're supposed to say the birth of your child especially if he's watching. [ laughter ] >> right. >> it was one, it was something like nothing else. there was never anything that i really wanted to do that i did like that, you know. there's nothing -- there's few things in your life that you really would love to do. this was one of them, winning it, and when it actually happened i couldn't speak. i was just babbling. >> plug you dragged d.a. points with you and vice versa. >> he happened to have the lowest score of all the professionals. >> which helped your score, too. but you kept him loose. >> well we did a good job of keeping each other alive. he kept making putts and hitting

the golf shots and i kept clowning around a little bit. and it is important to stay loose. people didn't think that you could be that loose and win. >> and as you said, if you want something that badly, usually that becomes detrimental to achieving what you want, if you really want it. i'm amazed that -- when i try too hard it doesn't go in. >> it's the same in dating, there is hea creepy desperate people, people kind of go, maybe not. you're nice, though, you know. but it was, we just, i kept trying to stay relaxed and loose. we always believed we could have the most. i just played for many years with scott simpson. >> right. >> and jeff sluman and we always believed if you could have the most fun and win, that was our goal every time, and we came close a few times, but i thought i kind of thought my time was passed, like abraham, you know,

i didn't think it would happen for me. >> right. and then you got the buzzsaw that is spyglass yesterday which i'm facing at 8:00 today, first prize is one round, second prize is two rounds. >> it was -- i was in pain, too, i'm in agony. my knee is hurting and if you're in pain and you're walking this golf course, spyglass, i know it sounds tough out there, folks, watching from a hospital bed, but -- >> right. >> -- we're at pebble beach but if you can't walk straight and you have to go up and downhill on spikes. >> it's tough. >> you feel like -- >> i'm going to -- >> it's going bad. >> how did you do yesterday? >> poorly. we had some fun, but nothing went in. the greens are really hard and difficult to -- you're going to really have a good time. >> i am, i know. i go to the tell the story when i saw you earlier, we love you as guest host, neel but i offered the guest host position to bill for the entire three

hours, if you wanted to, and i was trying to sell -- >> we could have shared. >> we could have shared. i was selling the notion of being an interview angle, we got all of the ceos on and you looked at me and he goes, wow, you have ceos on? is it a pejorative to call someone a ceo in hollywood? >> i'm a ceo. >> you are? >> yes. >> you just -- >> pleasure. my people will give you my card. >> that was classic bill murray. there really is sort of a, i mean it's not the greatest thing -- a lot of ceos wear sunglasses and aren't seen in public. >> they're all over the place. i want to see what you guys think of this. i'm playing with a fellow, harris barton, played for the san francisco 49ers and he was our fellow amateur last year and we had a lot of fun with him and sort of a safety net because he's big. so people don't mess with us too much, because we just go,

harris, weird guy right over here. and harris just looks over, "hey you little fella, anything i can do for you" grabs him by the ear and picks him up and no one bothers us. he spent the day going over the ropes. "here's my friend from google." he was paying more attention to the guy from google. i'm going like harris is getting rich while we're playing here, getting stock tips. i kept thinking if i'm playing this badly i should be talking to the google guy, too. i said how is it going over there at google, being about as k coy as i could be. he goes "we've had hay good run" which sun wf the funnier things i've heard this week "we've had a good run over at google." so you have no comment on that. >> the other thing i've seen, tiger is here. so anyone that's playing in the same group, the same day, same course with tiger. >> you are, right? >> in front or behind him, there's people running, like hundreds and hundreds of people

running to get either in a position to see him or not, and they're all watching, but the other person that they mentioned, that's like being around where murray where murray is playing. is it your golf game that the galleries, i don't think it's your -- >> it's him. >> it's my -- it's my figure. [ laughter ] we have more fun than tiger -- tiger can play better than i can play, and he knows that, and really he just rides that. >> he does. >> he really does, but we have more fun than they have. >> yes. >> so if you want to watch golf, you can watch them. if you want to watch fun and maybe golf, you can watch us. >> when people, i can't imagine having the amount of, i don't want it call it fame but recognition, there's no one in any supermarket, you can't go into my safeway where every single person doesn't know that you're bill murray. how often, what's the one thing people ask you to do, carl spackler, do they ask you to do, because last year you did a

little bit for me, after the show, because you had played the day before. you won't do it on tv, like getting huey lewis to do "power of love." >> really? >> no, he won't unless you pay. do i have to pay to you do -- >> joe's got $1 trillion on him. >> 100 trillion. >> whip it out. >> whip it out. starting with you today with the underwear comment. here we go. >> the underwear are you going to explain the underwear comment so it doesn't sound like -- >> you asked bill whether he's wearing the same underwear from last year. >> i wanted to know if you came back -- that's real, 100 trillion. >> that's what i won the other day in golf. it's a 100 trillion dollars zimbabwe. >> now will you do carl smackley? >> i'll give you that. can you say manganese? >> i got to say that yesterday a girl inside the ropes, she said

my dad is the superintendent here at spyglass. i said really? you have your own manganese? and she just -- she didn't know what i was talking about. >> we'll stheneak in a break. coming up more with the great bill murray, i called you iconic, and guest host neel kashkari. >> we'll explain the underwear. >> what are you warm? optionsxpress, where you can trade your favorite products, all in one account.

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and the popular co-host of cnbc's "squawk box," joe kernen i think there's a shot there. joe actually has a masters degree in molecular biology from the massachusetts institute of technology. how does one very smart man playing with steve ellington, who's not that smart -- >> we are back with bill murray. that was farity.

you haven't been on his show, but don't go on, we would rather you stay -- >> yeah, these are my people. >> last year, it was the arab spring and all kinds of things were happening. this year tear gas in athens. do you have a world view or view on this country and what we need to do, where we are in time? >> uh, i think we ought to be personally responsible, i think. i think if you can take care of yourself, and then maybe try to take care of someone else, that's sort of how you're supposed to live. it's not a question of asking other people for help or being rescued or anything like that. i think we've sort of gotten used to someone looking out for us, and i don't think any other person is necessarily going to be counted on to look out for us.

i think there's only so many people that can take care of themselves and can take care of other people. the rest of the people are going to end up -- they're useful in terms of compost for the whole planet, you know, but there's just certain people that will go up and there are certain people that there stay the same and there are certain people that are going to drop. you'd like to be that person that's going to elevate and hopefully if you can do that, you can take care of yourself and if you're good enough, you should take care of about this many people. >> are you saying that america was like founded on individualism, as opposed to europe? are you making a contrast to the -- >> well, i think people -- this country really is a pioneer country. people that came here. we forget the kind of discipline they had to have to get from -- occasionally it seeps in that they came in wagons from illinois to oregon or whatever,

that they came in wagons and the wheels broke. you see it in the searchers orals something where you think gee, that must have been hard for those women to push that wagon up the mountain. there was no option but to do it yourself. there is no turning back. there is no turning back. this is your life. this is, as we say to one of my brothers, this is your life. this is not a dress rehearsal. >> we had clint eastwood on yesterday. he spoke with us about his halftime ad -- >> i didn't see the ad, but everyone is talking about it. >> halftime in america. his message as he described it again yesterday, is that this country is at a halftime point where we need to go into the will beer room and figure out how things work again. >> i think that's appropriate. the game seems to have changed. it's a world game, right? it's not just us, you know, having a great time in north

america. the whole planet's gotten so small, and we all have to work -- we're a team now. we have to work together. >> this kind of sounds like "stripes with hulka. >> thank you for relaxing me there. >> can i be the big toe or are you going to be the big toe? i want to be the big toe. >> i want to be that big toe. yeah, but he's right. i think it's a very good message. i don't know why anyone tried to politicize it. it sounds like what i'm speaking of, taking your own personal responsibility. when you do that, then you can work with other people. since this is our little country here, let's work as a group, you know, and not squabble. >> i'm going to ask you another question about simpson/bowles, in terms of trying to balance the budget -- >> not scott simpson. >> that was my first though. >> he's not playing with bowles

out here. >> they came up with some ideas that basically one is a democrat, one's a republican, they came up with some ideas that said you need to find ways to cut spending, but also need to find ways to slightly raise taxes and revenue, and there's a way where both parties can meet in the middle. we've watched as washington has become to partisan. i wonder what your thoughts are on what needs to happen. >> you're obviously right. the fact that they just fight -- they spend all their time just trying to destroy the other guy, not to work together, but to humble and humiliate the other so that they can't have success. it's exactly what -- you know, it's not working to serve anyone anymore. if you're not serving something -- i don't want to sound like a rho tearian, but if you're not serving a common good, you're only serving your partisan alliance, you're part of what is destructive.

you're destroying something. you're destroying -- all we really have is hope, hope for some sort of consciousness. if you destroy hope in people, you're doing real damage to the planet and to yourself. >> what challenges, expectations for congress has gotten so low, failure is now expected. everyone just shrugs their shoulder. how could the super committee whose one job was to reach a deal, how can failure be acceptable, yet they fail and we're all just shrugging our shoulders saying that's congress, that's washington. until we set higher expectations, nothing is going to change. >> their mandate was a trillion in tax increases. that is doomed for failure. there's no way that was going to work. do you still -- supposedly you have like a message machine somewhere and that's how people have to call you to offer you deals or scripts or whatever. you might not even check it for

a month, so you miss out on -- you're kind of a quirky dude. will you do another comedy? or are you now just like "lost in translation," big murray? >> i don't have an agenda. i just do the ones i like. it's rolled that way. lately i've gotten more serious. >> "get low" was an interesting movie. i was sort of the comic relief. >> you were, both on and off. >> that's an excellent film. rob duval is the great actor, and i was just a bozo on the side. >> i saw that. he was doing weird old man sounds on purpose, like that? >> yeah. >> -- >> he can coot with the best of them. he really can. he has some tics of his own. >> don't we all. >> and he's a powerful guy.

he's frighteningly physical and such a force. she should live to be 130. he has a lovely wife who keeps him very young. so when he starts playing old guys at this age, he'll be really scary in about 30 years. >> thank you. thank you for coming in. >> that's okay oh, there's a funny movie i did -- there is going to be a funny movie that wes anderson directed that comes out in may. one of the funniest you've ever seen, caused moon rise kingdom, about the world of scouts. >> could you just finish by saying -- the internet -- something? [ laughter ] >> you've still got it, man. >> yeah, well -- >> thank you. >> thank you very much, bill. we appreciate it. by t