>> thanks for watching "street signs," everybody. >> thank you for letting me join you today. the "closing bell" is coming up next. today, on the "closing bell," it's the rally that won't quit. but there mr signs that the s&p's bull run is about to lose steam. plus, is there any upside in the video game industry. talking about the prospects for a business in the face of rising competition. and is now the time to buy home builders? find out if the sector is worth betting on, straight ahead. live, from the new york stock exchange, this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. >> welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. for the record, i am always nice. and i have a -- i do not have ha nasty bone in my body, is all i

can say. >> you were saying nice things here, i don't understand it. i'll bill griffeth. you knew that. stocks still under pressure in the home stretch. after trading mixed earlier in the day. we saw equities take another leg down midday. techs among the early leaders to the upside. but they also lost some momentum as the day wore on. we'll get into all of that. we had the release of the minutes from the latest fed meeting. that did little to spark any buying interest among investors. those minutes showed a decidedly divided fed when it came to taking more action to spur growth in the economy. some are in favor, many against. steve liesman will have more on that in just a moment. >> let's take a look at the major indices for you. we're very much in the red. the dow sitting at 108, we're sitting at 12,770 right now. i'm going to take that back. only a few minutes ago we were up for the lows of the day, but we're pushing back down once again. triple-digit loss there for the dow once again.

the s&p 500 is up by .6 of a percent. just cannot seem to get past the psychological hurdle. >> did you say this would be the first, if it closed here, the first triple-digit close for the dow? for the down side? yeah. >> we haven't seen the triple-digit loss in a very long time. >> we haven't had the s&p down in this territory, i don't think either. i think the most -- biggest decline was .57% at the end of january. things are starting to look a little topee. two sectors looking a little topee. first, mr. yunker, who has the eurozone, finance minister, also the prime minister of luxembourg, released a statement saying they're making progress. he's confident that they will have an agreement by february 20th. that's the next official eurozone finance minister. we say this with a little bit of sarcasm these days. but the bottom line is, he says

progress has been made. let's not go into all the details. i want to comment on two sectors, apple kind of rolled over in the middle of the day. there were vague rumors floating around, maybe apple would be rebalanced in the nasdaq 300. that's 15%. that's a lot. historically that's not enough to get a rebalancing. that seems unlikely to me. some momentum stock. look at that. we were at $525, it goes to $511 very quickly. that's what caused the market to drop in the middle of the day. >> it was up for nine days straight. eventually you'll hit a wall. >> the other thing looking topee is housing. optimistic comments in the last couple of days on housing. highest most optimistic since 2007 for nahb. massco didn't have a great report. they were optimistic on 2012. look at the main housing index,

etf of all the home builders, it's hit a new 52-week high. it's been rolling over all day. this has been straight up since december. bill, 50% up since the middle of december. and today, on all this optimistic talk, it's selling off. >> reason enough -- i mean, that's not alone. there are other sectors that have done very well this new year. it's time for a correction perhaps at some point. >> i would point out apropos, material stocks, for example, they were the market leaders, up until about four days ago. they're also starting to roll over. >> we'll talk more about the home builders later on in the show and what has been built in, what hasn't. bob, we'll get back to you shortly. brian shactman is back at the big mothership with the cnbc realtime exchange. >> i'm the other brian, and i think you're awfully nice, by the way. >> thank you so much. >> i didn't throw you under the bus. industrials are the leadership to the down side today.

the caterpillar and utx, everything in the red, biggest winner is p & g. first i want to talk about zynga, now down 15%. earnings were actually okay, but current quarter growth looks to be disappointing. then there's apple. it's now at $502.36. a couple of hours ago we were talking about an all-time high. now a huge swing from that interday high of $526.29. that's $24. kellogg, bringles, proctor & gamble, they moved quickly. everybody seems bullish on the deal for kellogg. diamond foods, maybe they can clear out all the mess and start over. a few other movers here, mostly earnings based on the positive side. abercrombie is up.

parent company comcast, almost 5%. not only do they have great numbers, but they increased the dividends and are buying back stock. fmc technology down 6%. deere down more than 5%. bill, back to you. >> brian, thank you very much. something tells me that as the stock market moves lower, now the dow's down more than 110 points, that treasury prices are moving higher. let's go to rick santelli in chicago with the very latest on what's happening there. yes, rick? >> you know, it is true for the short end, bill, but i have to tell you, maybe it's just that the credit markets have had it more correct with regard to disappointment on some of the issues, for example, going on in europe. or maybe in the minutes. because it isn't rallying as much as you would think, considering we're making new lows as we speak in the dow. let's look at interday of five years. yes, the short maturities like a three-year, like a five-year are

definitely, as you can see on the chart, lower yield. not huge, but lower. but the further down the curve you go, ten-year virtually unchanged, 30-year bond arguably up a basis point on the session. and maybe the best barometer of all, look at how the boon overseas ten-year looks a lot more like our short maturities. it just isn't on a selling mode, no matter what the headlines say, it seems to be hunkered down at what at least at this point is a two-week low. not very far from historic lows. very similar to our five-year. back to you. >> rick, thanks so much for that. it's very clear we're sitting around the session lows right now. a bit of a slump here on this wednesday. the s&p sector, in fact, every single sector now is on the decline. let's get to today's "closing bell" exchange. steve liesman has been passing the fed minutes, and jon fortt with more on today's wild moves in apple shares. steve, what did you make of the fed minister?

did you get the feeling there is more qe or less qe on the way? >> i think the answer is yes, mandy. i think what's interesting about these minutes, among other things, is that they're kind of entrenching their positions. we learned, for example, that some members of the fmoc have already penciled in additional qe. some members are saying -- in fact, one particular member, jeff locker, he believes it's going to be preemptive tightening by the federal reserve well before late 2014. i think bill characterized it well, i don't think we learned any new information as to the split on the board. but i think we learned new information about how entrenched these interests are. the market generally, the stock market in particular seemed to take it more as taking qe more off the table. >> but what did you make of the comments from fisher? didn't he say it was just a wall street fantasy and everybody's going to be massively disappointed? >> i think mr. fisher is misspeaking there, in part, because if you read the minutes,

it's a fantasy of many of his colleagues on the fmoc. the market takes its direction from the fmoc. there's two particular categories of doves that the market needs to know about. there are those who have already penciled it in and those who say they are open to additional qe, if the situation deteriorates. the rest of the group is either on the hawkish side or not committing either way. i'm thinking about seven or eight members, between the few and the number, adds up to about seven or eight members in that dovish wing of the board. >> it epitomizes the division in the fed right now, didn't it. i want to get to what's happening with apple shares. a lot of talk about the reverse. it was doing very well at the beginning of the day. they were saying, once again, apple can do no wrong. what went wrong then, jon? >> that's what a lot of people are wondering. you look on twitter, on a lot of the popular apple message

boards, people are scratching their heads. but it's right now trading about where it was yesterday, before this 5% pop that seemed to come on the heels of tim cook's comments with goldman sachs. here's basically what he had to say yesterday before the stock popped. he was talking about apple's commitment to labor improvements, saying the iphone has plenty of room to run. tablets will overtake pcs as a bigger market. he still thinks even more now than ever. he talked about apple tv as a hobby and says, apple really doesn't do hobbies. we always thought that was more there, the strongest statement yet that this is going to turn into a bigger product. some folks are thinking maybe this has to do with options, this quick move to the downside. some people pointing out that the price targets on apple have not kept pace with the stock. just price targets set last month by jpmorgan were at $515, oppenheimer at $510. maybe the computers didn't like

it, mandy. >> jon, thank you very much for that. jon and steve, thank you for joining us on the "closing bell." >> about 50 minutes to go here as we head toward the close. we'll see what the markets have in store for us here. >> is gamestop trying to cash in. the ceo is going to join us next. >> with the s&p fighting to stay above the key technical level of 1350, we'll show you why the potential rewards in this market could be bigger than the potential risks. >> after the bell, guys, forget gold. why one top fed official appears to be hedging his bets against inflation by investing in uranium. >> love that story. but first, here's how the s&p 500 heat map is shaping up. lots of red there today. you're watching cnbc, we are first in business worldwide. back after this.

we're about 45 minutes to go until we do ring the closing bell. why don't we get a quick market stat check on what's happening with the dow. the major averages dropped as apple hit a wall following its very nice nine-day run, to a lifetime high of $526 a share. near session lows right now. the dow off by 113 points. as for some of the worst performers on the dow at this hour, united technologies, caterpillar, pfizer, mcdonald's and ge, general electric, that is all losing ground. >> it is clear that the developments in europe have been calling the shots for wall street today. let's bring simon hobbs in. a lot of the jobs out of europe, do we have a deal? will we have a deal? what's going on there to cause a sell-off we're seeing right now? >> we simply don't know. most people in the market started the week in the belief that after all the turmoil on

sunday we would have some sort of resolution by tonight. that clearly hasn't come through. we've got the statement from the eurozone. and they've left the entire thing open. meanwhile, the wires have been briefing ferociously that they are talking about not doing the 130 bailout for greece. and delay it possibly until after the april election. in the meantime, there's talk of bridging loans, or stealing a little bit of money from here to make the march 20th deadline. there is no announcement of the public sector. quite simply, they don't know if the public sector will sign up, if they haven't gone through that bigger issue. there are a huge number of questions that are open. and it is -- it really raises a lot of concerns for a lot of people in the market. >> well, it could be as simple as our markets were vulnerable anyway given the rallies we've had lately. >> absolutely. >> thank you, simon. we'll check back in with you as news warrant. gamestop has allowed players to trade in their used games and

for credit at their stores. how is the world's largest video game retailer keeping up with the evolving landscape. let's get more perspective on gamestop's business as it celebrates its tenth year of trading here. good to see you. >> good to see you. great to be here. >> did i read correctly that you make more money off of the trade-ins with gamers right now? is that true? >> we have a very significant pre-owned business, and that has been a historical strength for gamestop. that's a multi-billion-dollar business around the world for us. we' it continues to grow nicely. >> there is a vigorous market for used games? or pre-owned as you would say, taking a page from cars, huh? >> there absolutely is. the pre-owned game business is sort of the opening price point business we've created for consumers who maybe don't have

the financial resources to get the new games when they launch. but want to learn about a game that's maybe two or three years old. at the same time, the new game buyer and owner, once they finish playing, like the trade credit and currency it gives for us to buy back that they can turn into more new games. it works on the consoles as well as the new games. >> you showed greater growth in software sales than hardware, console sales. what does that say about the industry right now? >> clearly, bill, what we're seeing is our holiday really showed software sales up 9.9%. the console cycle is approaching the end. the current generation of ps 3 and wii is reaching a seven-year cycle. we have a new console for the fall holiday, we don't have announcements on the next two cycles. but it's clear to us that there is some new consoles coming. we'll see declines in hardware this year, and we're focused on the other parts of our business. >> down the road, five years, ten years, what's the future of

gaming? mobility just exploding. you play games anywhere now. >> that's absolutely right. there will be new consoles from the main manufacturers. so the install base of hundreds of millions of gamers isn't going to go away. it will see a splatter of physical growth, but it will see strong digital growth. at the same time we're seeing great sales in our tablet products. mobility is a big destination for gamers. >> i offhandedly asked you, i typically do as somebody in your industry, gee, are you a gamer. i didn't expect the answer i got. >> i'm absolutely a gamer. you know, in the job i'm in, i have to know the product. so i budget about four hours. my delightful and charming wife allows me to budget four hours a week of gaming. and i try to stay current. >> you budget four hours a week? >> whether i need it or not. >> for professional reasons, though? >> my family, my kids tell me, dad is doing research. a lot of research. >> what do you like to play? >> i tell you, everybody loves

madden and fifa and sports games. i also like a game from sony called uncharted, sort of a raiders of the lost arc meets james bond kind of game. i like the action adventure role playing games. but i also have to understand the music games. it's a fun category. as we migrate to tablets and phones, it's a great way to take your games with you. >> and the social gaming phenomenon right now, that's becoming hot because of facebook. where is that going? >> absolutely. it's grown a lot. we are one of the largest distributors of zynga and cards in our store as well as facebook. we own congregate that's an interesting casual platform. we see a lot of growth there continuing. >> good to see you. >> good to see you. it's been a great ten years. >> next time i'm slouching on the couch and watching hours and hours of "sex and the city" i'm going to say i'm doing research for my real job. we're about 40 minutes away from

the closing bell. we are at the session lows, down by about 118 points now. >> technology, here we go again, hewlett-packard shares have risen 22% since meg whitman took control of the company in september. should you ride that wave or is it time to take some profits? >> next, in today's trade the close, how to be playing the big spread between brent and wti oil prices. >> that's getting ever wider. here's how the major commodities have been trading so far today. we're back with more "closing bell" right after this.

year-to-date. kind of like a stealth rally, if you like. they're hoping the new ceo, meg whitman, will be able to turn it around. let's start talking numbers. on the technicals, we have brent standing next to me. on the fundamentals we have michael holt, who covers the name for morning star. i want to start with you first of all. for the viewers, saying we can bring up a chart and take a look at what it's doing. >> i'm mildly bullish. look at a little history. hewlett-packard october low. which was 22. so it was 57% loss during that

time period. pretty devastating to the stock. from october to now, last four and a half months, it has grinded slowly higher from 22 to 29. there are some dips and peaks. it was a slow grind. what i try to do at this point is measure what the upside targets may be from that low in october. 38% retracement could be right around 32. that represents a 38% retracement of the losses. >> right. >> 50% retracement would be right around 36. so for me, 32 i think is in the cards. 36 could be a bit of a struggle. >> let's look at the fundamental side of things. michael you said hp faces a significant head wind, but most of these investors have a reason to be optimistic as the new ceo looks to restore order from the chaos. how confident are you that she can do the trick? >> i'm quite confident. because what we really like what they're doing is focusing on the

business units where they have sustainable competitive advantages. this is a change from the previous regime. it's back to the basics. therefore, we expect a low grind for the stock to continue forward. >> in terms of risk to the stock, do you think that whitman is potentially going to make a major acquisition in the next year? >> i'm very kept cal there will be more major acquisitions. the company signaled that is not the first use of cash. they want to repair their balance sheet, and focus on their fundamentals. >> to both of you, thank you for joining us on hp. >> all right. heading toward the close, about 30 minutes to go. another lag down. the dow down about 122 points right now. our next guest says investors should be increasing risk appetite while keeping defensive names in your portfolio. and as we head to the break here, a look at some of the standout performers, both up and

down, among the s&p 500 stocks today. back after this.

welcome back. bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. things are looking a little bit topee right now, folks. let me show you three important market leaders that are starting to roll over a little. euro, $1.26, gone all the way up to $1.32. starting to roll over. apple, biggest stock anywhere, in maybe in the history of the world. look what happened here today. hit a high of 25% since the start of the year. new high, rolling over. home builders, huge run since september. the home building index, there's the one you want to look at, up 25% since the beginning of january. some fairly good news today on the home building sentiment. yet it, too, after hitting a new high also has had a very weak afternoon, rolling over a little bit. >> and then there's market volume as well, bob, as you know. it's been relatively low lately. as europe's debt concerns continue to keep investors on the sideline for the most part. even so, one of our next guests thinks the equities space looks compelling at these levels. he said it's time to start

adding some more risk to your portfolio. >> here to talk about where he's adding risk is the ceo and director of research at cirrus research, and head of american's strategies. you're the one who wants to add on risk. >> sure. >> in this seemingly risky market. and 15,000, not unreasonable. >> to some degree, that's right. if you look at what's gone on in the last nine months, i think the debate about europe isn't new to us. and what we're seeing in some of the proprietary indicators is one of the biggest collapse in risk appetites we've seen in the last 30 years, just occurred in the last nine months. as you see a breakdown of risk taking, there's a way to add risk to the portfolio. >> so when, for example, today, when investors are spooked a little bit about what's going on in greece, you take this as a buying opportunity? >> if you've got valuations to come down to where they have. we've also seen a sharp cut in estimates as well.

so the company earnings numbers, the outlook, they're more reasonable coming into the season here. >> okay. >> where are you looking? i think you're a bit more defensive, aren't you? >> i'm with sasha. i think the background of the environment actually looks quite good. but we've moved very far, very fast. 7% before this, in the first 45 days of the year. our expectation, it would probably look at a 10% return this year. so to get 70% of it in the first 45 days, we've come far, we've come fast. when you look at the insiders selling the low volume, the rsi, basically it suggests we should be in for a pause. there's some down side here. our view would be, you want to put some protection on the exposures you have, just to protect yourself, in the event we do get the pullback that seems to be occurring right now. >> how big do you think the pullback will be? what would you be waiting to pounce on? what would you really like to buy in that pullback? >> so the -- the first question

is, how big the pullback would be. it wouldn't surprise me to be a 5%. that's easy, given how far we've come since the lows of october. maybe 5%, 10%. on that point, sasha's right, i would back up the truck, so to speak, and get my equity exposure up to where it would be on a strategic basis, longer term basis. >> from our standpoint, we think you've got two or three very important trades here. one, from the technology side, semiconductors, those estimates are now finally starting to recover. so we think you've got a cap x cycle that's continuing to move its course. and some of those last year were completely destroyed. >> you sound like you're accumulating technology shares here. >> exactly. at least selectively. software side, they're probably more expensive. hardware, a lot more discounted. >> what do you think of apple? back below $500 now. >> a pbargain. >> well, if you believe that, i have -- no, i think more selectively we've seen some of

the smaller financial investment banking related names really get destroyed last year. our belief is in slow growth economies, merger activities should pick up. some of these should really work here. >> both of you, great to have you on the show. >> see you later on. >> very good. >> big change for many of general motors employees. the automaker is ending the traditional pension plan for u.s. salaried workers. phil lebeau is our man. what's the latest on that? >> mandy, had is the first of several steps we expect general motors to take. the pension has been weighing on the bottom line for the company. it's freezing the plan for 19,000 workers, hired before 2001. they're going to keep their money, but they're either going to roll it over into a 401(k) or get a lump sum payment. here's the reason they're doing this. the pension program, underfunded by $22 billion. this is 9 largest pension plan of any private company in the

united states. gm is looking to derisk the pension plan and lower the liability. it's also announcing today that it's lowering salaried worker bonuses due to the fact they're not going to hit the financial targets. and we're going to find out about those financial targets tomorrow morning, the fourth quarter earnings will be announced. revenue expected about $38 billion. that works out to about $1.18 billion. we're going to be talking with gm cfo shortly after the results come out at 7:30. we'll have them first on "squawk box," and then we'll talk to dan tomorrow morning. and the big focus and questions for mr. ammann, what's going on in europe. they'll be posting a big loss in europe. >> that's a question for a lot of companies, phil. thanks so much. >> we've got about 25 minutes to go here. the dow just off the lows, down 109 points. >> get ready to trade the close, because oil prices are up 3% this week. will tensions with iran keep ramping up those prices?

>> after the bell, home builder confidence index hitting the highest level than we've seen in five years. >> as we head to the break, take a look at how the big home builders are trading today. incredible run, but profit taking going on there right now. but first, before we go to break, the "dividend." which stock is the worst performer so far this year? carnival, monster worldwide, or radioshack? the "dividend" pays off after the break.

just before the break as part of the "dividend," we asked which stock is the worst performer so far this year, carnival, monster worldwide or radioshack? now the payoff. radioshack. >> welcome back to "closing bell." i'm seema mody. another apple centric day. the nasdaq giving up its gains as shares of apple erased a 3% advance that continues to be a market driver. another stock to keep in mind, juniper networks, up better than 6.5%.

some analysts say vendors like juniper should see a recover as carriers increase their spending. let's take a look at the biotech sector. amala norks is on the move. their new diabetes drug now available by prescription in the u.s. amylin shares up 2.5%. >> heading to the close. about 19 minutes left. as seema mentioned, nasdaq's been taking its cues from apple today, off the lows right now. but on pace for its third decline of the month. as apple falls off that lifetime high that we saw earlier in the session. right now, the nasdaq's down 15 points at 2,915. it was down 2,100 at the lows

set just moments ago. in yellow flag territory, we're up two points, or 10%, well above that 20 level now. closing above 20 in the last four sessions here. mandy? >> okay, bill. well, oil prices are up over 3% this week. as iran tensions continue to drive that market higher. john has been keeping a close eye on that situation. he said energy is pointing to a move higher. i think when we talk about higher, we're really talking about the brent premium over wti. what's pushing that spread out? >> certainly on the rise, the wti marker got over $100 a barrel this past week. now it's solidly installed over $101 on a continuing grind higher. >> which is kind of at the upper level that we've been seeing for many weeks. >> it's been a killer in a way. between $95 and $105. the recent move breaks the trend we've been to the upside.

it's like we've been talking about, on the geopolitical tensions surrounding iran, which are becoming incredible, the brent trade as you mentioned, over $118, heading to $120, $125. being much more reactive to the iran tensions, because we're getting a flood of oil from canada into the curbing, oklahoma, delivery point for the wti futures contract. >> a little gain that us journalists like to play, is veinly taking out the things we want here. if we took out iran, what do you think, just based on the economic fundamentals alone in demand, do you think the price should be at realistically? >> for me over the years watching these various situations, be it with iraq or iran over the years, this is as red-hot as it can be. between the killings of the iranian nuclear scientists, and now looks to be tit for tat against the israeli assets in asia. so without the iran premium, we'll probably down at the lower end of the range. $95 to even $90 a barrel.

because look, we've got gdp numbers across europe out this morning. they were a mixed bag. germany actually contracted, and france expanding slightly. so i think with that, we have downward pressure, not upward pressure. the iranians have a lot at their disposal to upset this market. they'll want to upset the market. they don't have to block the strait of hormuz, they just need to sink a ship, lay some mines and be disruptive. we're seeing call options being bought throughout the curve, out to at least december on the prospects of something happening. >> john, thank you very much for joining us. >> thanks. >> bill, over to you. >> heading to the close here, and the dow still off the lows, down 104 points right now. we'll break down stocks in the hot media industry that might be able to help you fine-tune your portfolio. when we come back, brian shactman round up all the day's

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welcome back. i'm back on the floor of the new york stock exchange. i'm standing in front of the post that trades abercrombie & fitch.

bouncing back from earlier declines after ceo mike jeffries told analysts he expects gross margins to recover significantly this fiscal year on the backs of easing cotton prices. their gross margins fell 7.5% during the fourth quarter because of heavy u.s. discounting that cut into those margins, despite his reassura e reassuranc reassurances. abercromb abercrombie's rise is cutting into the negative territory that it's carved out the last 52 weeks. down roughly a third from its peak set back in july. >> well, they may not be stealing the headlines today, but there are some "under the radar" stocks that are making very big moves. brian shactman joins us once again at the mother ship with details. >> i want to start with sears. always a proceed at your own peril trade.

it's near the top of the s&p 500 on no news. up 8%. they do report numbers next monday. the stock is now up about 64% year-to-date. railroads, not always under the radar. with the industrials lagging by so much, they're really taking a hit today. csx, suffolk and union pacific, all below. one analyst slashed targets from 38 to 23. huge earnings miss for atlas. air worldwide under the radar. expectations for $1.91. they reported a $1.50. well care health plans on the opposite end, they had earnings up $2.15 a share, versus $1.19 expectations. guidance indicates profit growth should continue with well care. imperial showed a small cap at a seeming miss on revenue. price was up, and vumgs way down. and it is down double digits.

>> thanks for doing the digging for us, brian. we're coming back with the closing countdown. the s&p set to close below 1350. many people telling us for a long time, we're due for a pullback. but after the bell we're going to tell you why those fears may be unfounded. first, though, this is how the major averages are trading as we head into the close. you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

a little less than six minutes left in the trading session here. it's going to be a close one here. the dow has not had a triple-digit decline yet in 2012. we're down 96 points. having its worst day since december the 8th. right now, down 95 points. we'll watch that one there. i usually lately have been starting this segment with the euro. and its relationship to the dollar. why do i do that? watch this. because it's been the euro/dollar relationship that's been calling the shots for the

stock market here in the united states. let's add into this chart a chart of the dow. and see how they track. because they track almost perfectly on an intraday basis. here we go. any moment now we're going to add the dow -- there it is. look at that. they're tracking each other very carefully. that says that the -- that our market is watching very carefully the developments in europe. and the outcome of the negotiations regarding the bailout for greece. that's pretty clear right now. what's interesting is you didn't see it unless you saw a response in the treasury markets today, as the stock market went lower, rick santelli was pointing out, you didn't get the rally you might have expected among the date of maturities in the treasury market. so the yield on that ten-year is holding at 1.93%. you did get the rally in gold, though, today. it wasn't a risk asset. it was a hedge. so it's up $12, or .75%. i still don't understand gold

right now. oil, also rallying today, probably being pulled higher by brent north sea. wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $125 at some point as we add it here. see what the spread is between new york oil and london oil, it's holding at that $17.60 range. the vix, back in yellow flag territory at 21.46. that's signaling things are a little dicey for the stock market. when you look at the performers today, only one sector among the s&ps higher, and a lot of the defensive sectors doing well right now. very defensive market today, huh? >> absolutely. if you lubef look at the way the year started off, you had such a dramatic run, we knew at some point we would see some form of noise in the system. >> you are among those who want to add risk to a portfolio. are we kidding ourselves that things are going to get better

in europe before they get worse? >> i think we're -- it's a longer term issue. we've been playing this out for four-plus years. >> yep. >> i think the last nine months it's gotten super heated. the way we're framing it is this is a series of rolling brownouts, not a blackout. you've seen a huge pullback in risk taking over the last 20, 30 years. so i think we now -- it's time to really look fundamentally at companies where they're growing earnings, where you've got growth support, and to some degree, the u.s. -- we're starting to see some of the fundamentals in the u.s. play a little differently. i hate to use the word decoupling. >> right. >> they're not all tied together. >> unless there's a very -- >> very dramatic adverse -- exactly. >> do you expect that to happen? >> i don't think it's going to be very dramatic. i think you're going to see a two step forward, one step back event. we don't get a nice result of this for another year.

>> technology has been the sector for all seasons, as we noted here. at some point, though, does that stop? apple, it's sort of a proxy for that, in the extreme. but as you said, you like -- >> technology, break it down between software and hardware, we're seeing record valuation gaps where the systems soft wears, et cetera, are at record high valuations. at the same time we're seeing valuations on the semiconductor low ends. it's not a story, let's buy them all. but i think this is a time for active stock risk take. >> then let me add a wild card here. the financials have done well this year, after a horrible couple of years. >> right. >> is that the kind of risk you want to take here? >> i think very, very carefully in financials. there are multiple stories going on there. you have large mega banks with regulatory risk. i would say that's a very complicated story. at the same time, you've got regional banks that are growing,

where we're seeing loan growth stabilize, where the valuations have really collapsed. so we think financials are a very interesting story, much more focused on one group at a time than the sector. >> good to see you. >> thank you. >> we're getting ready for earnings. cvs, stocks coming out. >> intercontinental group had some good companies the other day. gold corp will be out. not anywhere near new highs in gold, still hovering around $1,700. but generally, they're pumping out as much as they can. >> wouldn't you? >> in fact, tomorrow we're going to get the quarterly record from the gold council on gold demand around the world. i think you'll find that gold miners are pumping out as much as they can, but they're still only 60% of the supply. people are recycling gold. >> thank you, bob. looks like we may get the first triple-digit decline for the dow s