>> see what happens in the market as the dow marches toward 13,000 ahead of a possible solution in greece. option action, money many notion tonight, "power lunch" begins right now. thank you, scott. three hours to go in the trading day and investors are hoping for some friday stock and awe. the dow near a four-month high and sneaking ever closer to 13,000. europe, earnings and the economy all in play. will we break through that big number today, ty? >> stick around and find out. a deep dive in retail. a barrage of earnings come up next week, walmart, macy's, gap, kohl's, will report. what should you expect? how do you play it, sue? >> plus, how tweet it is. 50 million people log onto twitter a day. 250 million tweets posted a day. how twitter's ceo plans to make money in all that traffic. >> along with sue herera, i'm tyler mathisen. that can only mean one thing, "power lunch" begins right now.

>> i fall down flat on my face here. the industrials, there you see them about 70 points shy of the 13,000. day of consolidation and caution ahead of this weekend's meetings in europe. you know, they're always meeting over there in europe. another weekend meeting. they never stop working. here's where we stand right now as you see the industrials 12,932. s&p 500 up 0.06%. take a pulse of the market. the nasdaq down 12 points or about .5%. oil above $100 a barrel. iran fears, greek hopes, the euro holding steady on those greek hopes. there you see just up a little bit versus the dollar. and the yield on the 10-year above 2%. our midday movers for -- sharply higher for los angeles county giving them a permit to build a big solar farm out there where the sun always shines.

and heinz and campbell soup higher. those are two good food companies. gilead science on the downside getting crushed. patients in a trial of hepatitis c drug have relapsed. seema mody will have more on this in a minute. decline there down 15%. profits at general mills missed estimates and they cut their full year guidance down $1.53. the stock right now at $38.25. nordstrom earnings, i've been there lately, got this suit there a few months ago. beat their estimates but the stock is down 2%. nonetheless, they warned on margins full year profit forecast was weaker than consensus. now you know where i shop. and for the latest action on the trading floors, let's go to courtney reagan from the nyse. courtney. >> hi, good afternoon, tyler. well, we're watching dow trying to get close to 13,000. we're about 68 points away right now. intel, one of those components in the dow, is moving nicely. take a look at it. we're seeing highs not seen

since about december 27, 2007. so more than a four-year high here. the last time that intel was around these levels -- it was up rather i'm sorry 10% since the dow closed above 13,000. some good moves there. look what's going on in the oil services index. also near a six-month high as crude oil trades above $103 a barrel amid a weaker dollar and optimism surrounding the potential for this greek bailout deal to actually take place. and last but not least, consumer names helping to lead the way though the sectors itself are spread. heinz trading higher, campbell soup trading higher. seems like they're seeing more strength abroad than here domestically. and as a matter of fact, general mills notes that u.s. sales in fact are weak. that's a foodmaker trading to the downside. now move over to jackie at the nasdaq where things are trading lower for a change of fate. >> hey, courtney. not such a great day for the nasdaq. start by looking at stocks that are big movers today including

bay duh. down 4% now this after the company reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings yesterday. however, there's an analyst at morgan stanley saying the growth we saw, it's not so great. we saw 77% growth year on year in earnings, but that's the worst we've seen in two years. in fact, this analyst doesn't think that growth will continue and he's saying you have to short the stock. the worry there of course is that chinese smes are the biggest primary customer for baidu and worried of a slowdown there. also shares of nvidia down about 4.5%. we saw heat after fourth the quarter profit decline due to deeper than expected shortage in -- excuse me, shortage of disk drives. revenues and margins have improved. but guidance not so great. and rim down about 2% today as well. there's some concern of course that the blackberry's not relevant to consumers anymore, but there's also ralph edward,

the director of derivative strategy at itg saying options on this one, both ways, long and short, are fairly priced. we potentially could be seeing people shifting strategy on how they play this name. sue, back over to you. >> thank you very much, jackie. let's switch on the "power lunch" pow eer surge and drill down the stories driving the day. stay with nasdaq. turn our attention to google. it's trading lower today. new concerns about privacy. jon fortt joins us with more on that. hi, jon. >> hey, sue, story in today's "the wall street journal" been tracking even when users stuck to the browser's default settings. i talked to someone on google's side of this and they say this is just an embarrassing mistake on google's part. another black eye for a company with a lot of negty privacy headlines for the past few months. how did it happen? safari did allow them to set cookies for people who opted into google plus and the plus one button, but google needed to check and see what safari users

were signed in and which ones wanted that, so they used a temporary cookie, one that lasts a few hours for that. and that temporary cookie accidentally left the door open for every other google third party cookie that wanted to get on to the browser. google has taken it down. they've released a statement, i have it on my phone, it's almost undecipherab undecipherable. and the damage has been done. consumer watching to already written the ftc claiming this violates rules google agreed to live by under that buzz decree. so this is after the africa business debacle, the wi-fi sniffing debacle, the privacy settings thing, google scramble to deal with this. >> i understand it's come to the attention of people in washington, but you would think that there would be more public outrage about this. it's very scary to me. >> yeah, well, you read this response from google and it's really hard to understand.

and that's sort of the challenge that google is up against. they say that the technicals behind this are really complicated, but everybody understands the idea that somebody's looking over their shoulder watching their surfing behavior. google needs to figure out a way to explain to them and assure them less this really blows up. >> thank you, jon. >> keeping a close eye on gilead sciences, mentioned a moment ago shares getting hammered after disappointing test results on one of its drugs. seema, gilead made a big bet on this precise drug, didn't it? >> it really did, tyler. that's why there's such a huge disappointment for gilead and investors today. the company reporting that a small group of patients relapsed within a month of completing their acquired hepatitis c treatment. in response, other players in the hepatitis c space are on the move. actually, ie dentics ceo gave us an update on their experimental hepatitis c drug. hear what he had to say.

>> our singular focus at idenix is only on hepatitis c. idx 184 in mid to late stage clinical testing. >> so the race continues. who can create an all pill regimen with fewer side effects and yield positive results across different geno types. a cocktail approach similar to hiv treatments. investors i spoke to that confident regardless of setbacks one or many of these firms will get it right and dominate this very lucrative market which is still seen as an untapp eped opportunity. back to you. >> thank you very much. >> and now to greece. when we head into another weekend without a bailout deal in place and a pivotal eurozone meeting set for monday. our chief international correspondent, michelle caruso-cabrera, is here. seems like every time i talk to you there's another meeting set but you're watching this one closely. >> yeah. ultimately they have to get

something done because we have this big payment due at the end of march. run through the timetable. on sunday we know there's going to be a big conference call among the european finance ministers. they call this the working group. in theory they should actually get everything buttoned up by sunday night so that monday for the face-to-face meeting they rubber stamp a lot of what was already decided the previous day. but latest we hope to hear is monday night that they have agreed to extend another 130 billion euros worth of loans to greece so they can fund operations for the next several years. if that indeed happens, then monday night we believe the private sector debt exchange rollout begins. that's the deal that greece has reached with private sector creditors around the world that they will only get 50% of what they thought they were going to get paid by the greek government. the big dilemma as we go into the meeting, and what they're trying to solve for is remember, way back in october when the european union decided they were going to do this for greece, their goal was that greece's debt to gdp had to get to 120%

by 2020. that's how much their debt needed to go down by. greece's gdp has done nothing but fall since then. so they no longer can meet that target of 120% debt-to-gdp. they have to figure out some way to fix that or simply look the other way and decide they're going to give them the money anyway. why? because of 14.5 billion euros of repayments greece has due on march 20th, that's what's breathing down everybody's neck they're trying to solve for. >> the ecb now, there's some talk they're going to exchange debt. put that in perspective for us. >> so greece also owes the ecb money because the ecb went out and bought greek debt on the secondary market to try to bring their interest rates down. we think they bought it roughly 75 cents on the dollar. the ecb does not want to be subject to the losses of the private sector, so they're exchanging their debt. it's the same exact structure, just with a different coupon. >> got it. >> what we're waiting to see is whether or not the ecb says we paid 78 cents for this, we'll accept 78 cents in exchange

rather than 100 cents so at least they don't make a profit on greek debt. >> another key weekend. >> it is. >> going to be watching sunday night into monday morning. thanks, michelle, very much. >> all right. to u.s. banks and mortgages now. cnbc spoke exclusively with two of the biggest names in the mortgage industry. wells fargo ceo and jpmorgan's head of mortgage business. both saying they're reviving in the housing market requires a series of steps, not a single solution. mary thompson joins us now with the highlights. >> hey, tyler. among those what will improve among the housing market, the recent services settlement with the attorney general. two of the five companies signing a multibillion sett settlement over claims the banks didn't handle foreclosures properly. >> the $26 billion will put

money in the state's pockets and people's pockets. we'll do modifications that we've been doing. so it helps. it's not everything. it will help. >> what also will help doing something with the almost 650,000 foreclosed properties. bausano says in the coming year it's expected there will be a concerted effort by the government investors and banks to rent these properties. >> we're all working on it hard of homes moving more to rental. you have a lot of inventory out there. and i do believe everybody's working on it hard and thinking about an reo rental market. once we get through that, i think you will see a more normalized home ownership rate. >> the market may not be norm alized now but he said he believes it's at a bottom. for more about the interview go to cnbc.com. back to you. >> mary, thank you very much. coming up next, we focus on the

retail details. a huge week for retail earnings ahead. walmart, macy's and the gap just three of the major players reporting sd reporting. >> so what should you expect? we'll get you ahead of the numbers on the other side of this break.

welcome back to "power lunch." rick santelli on the floor of the cme group. we are looking at a 202 yield currently on a 10-year note. look at 24-hour chart you can see we're not at our extreme highs, but we're over 2%. this could be only the fifth close above 2% for all of 2012. now, if you look at the euro currency today, you can see that many thought it would be under much more pressure than it is or it would be much higher. seems to be kind of satisfying both. but if you go back to when the trading range we're snugging up to began on november 1st for 10s, it's basically very ste castic. kind of choppy but in range. we still haven't reached it. look at the euro currency. i think this is enlightning. it doesn't seem to be able to gravitate to the upper end of its range. if you're trading euros to play europe, i don't know that you're getting your just desserts. >> thank you very much. retail earnings full on beginning tuesday after the long holiday weekend. the sector's seen gains of about 8% year-to-date.

joining us to get ahead of the numbers on three players is president of sw retail advisors and a cnbc contributor. and joining us from the nyse, courtney is with us once again. start with walmart, ladies, due out before the bell on tuesday. stacy, what are you expecting? >> well, as we saw last quarter, it was the first positive comp in years. so the big question is what was driving this comp before was the ticket. we want to know is traffic finally positive. are walmart's everyday low pricing efforts reinvesting and passing on pricing is that finally paying off and driving consumers back into the store. >> uh-huh. courtney, what will you be watching for? >> i'm watching for that and i'm also watching to see the products. i want to know if the products that walmart reinstated that the consumers really wanted have been working. if those are the products that they are, again, buying. and i think we have to be careful and consider the walmart consumer. unemployment is lower, but it's still above 8%. it's still higher than what we

would like to see. if that consumer feels strained, they may not make those purchases at walmart and watch the pressure from the dollar stores. >> stacy on macy's, what do you think? >> it's interesting. we saw nordstrom last night and came out and they got punished a bit because they're reinvesting in the business. macy's has done this. they're basically doing a multichannel approach. they've invested in their sales force and it's paid off in comps. last month their comps were a little light but the stock didn't get punished for it because january is a very small month. what we want to hear from them is that margins are still moving in the right direction. they've lapped the free shipping. and we want to hear, really, what february looks like. >> you know, courtney, they also have had a pretty loyal consumer, a loyal shopper. that must help them a little bit too. >> very much so. and i think that the my macy's program and really catering their merchandise to the local consumer and that regional consumer really helps them and they're doing it much better than some of their other

competitors either with the specialty or at the department store level. the online sales are very strongs a stacey mentioned. that will be important going forward and bringing the consumer in with the merchandise they expect to be there. those exclusive designers and private labels a big boost for macy's. >> gap, stacy, has been a limper for a long time. >> that's the story that we love to hate every month. that we love to beat on. the question is you go into their stores now and their product dare i say actually looks terrific. they've got bright colors. they've got colored jeans. tyler, we'll see if we can get you in one of those. the men's -- they have skinny red pants for men. >> that's what i need. >> add that to your wardrobe. but i think the question is, is that spring product that just hit the stores in the past few weeks, is that paying off? are we finally seeing a hit here with the new design center? is that finally coming to fruition? >> courtney, how long do you think they have to prove themselves to the street with these new lines? >> they've been on this transformation process for a

really long time. the product may look good, but if you don't have consumers coming in the stores to buy it, that's a problem. gap has struggled in the u.s. and gone outside the u.s. and moved into the international market. but last january -- this past january, i should say, international sales down 10%. that doesn't look very good if that's where they really think the growth is. i'm still a little concerned. maybe i'm more skeptical on gap than where stacey is right now. >> i think you have company out there. you're not alone on that. stacy, how long do you think they have to prove it to the street before the stock gets punished again? >> the stock's behaved very well. it's up 20% since the beginning of the year. there's some expectations there. i think you have to give them some time. the design center was created about a year ago. there's been a lot of turnover in management. so, you know, it's really another nine months, probably. and, i would agree, you have to get the consumer back in the store. that's the challenge here. but the product is more exciting. it does have color. and that's something that they have not had in a long time. and, yes, the international

business has been struggling. >> give me a quick thought, stacy, very quick on uniqlo. >> they're doing great cashmere sweaters and coats, certainly they suffered from the warm weather in the winter, but gap is in this position where other people are gaining share from them. and uniqlo is one of them. >> uniqlo reminds me of the old shops in new york or gap back in the day. >> yes. yes. >> ladies, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> skinny red jeans for me. yeah. >> perfect for you. not for me. that's for sure. >> me either. up next, magic words, buy, sell or hold. time to drill down on some of the stocks that made news this week. microsoft hitting a four-year high. kellogg's going to buy pringles. >> i could wear skinny red heels. >> yes. and you look great in them. >> not the jeans.

what's the play on the stocks? we'll make those calls and more on the other side of the break. people with a machine. what ? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it ? hello ? hello ?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello ? ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense.

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joined now by mike murphy, "fast money" contributor and ceo of rose cliff capital. haven't met you before. good to meet you. >> good to meet you as well. >> thanks for coming in. let's start with kellogg's which this week said it's going to pay $2.8 billion to buy pringles. you look like you've never eaten a pringle in your life, is that too much to pay? >> i've had a couple pringles back in the day. it's not too much to pay. diamond foods came in, they were going to be the ones to buy the pringles brand. now kellogg's could come in and gives them entering into a lot of different areas in the marketplace. now they're going to expand their snack food business. >> do i buy kellogg's, sell it if i own it -- >> you buy it here for a number of reasons. look at the chart here -- this is a short-term chart, but back in november they had a mishap. rarely happens with kellogg's. stock was down 10% from the mid-50s down to the $49 range. now, with this pringles

acquisition, the stock started to move up. they're paying a 3.3% dividend. they're not overpaying for the company at all because of the synergies it's going to give them. you buy kellogg's here. >> microsoft, one of the best performing dow stocks of the year. four-year high earlier this week. look at that, $31 a share. do i want to buy this stock? >> you do not want to buy microsoft here. microsoft is up 20% year-to-date. microsoft falls into a category i thought we could get through the whole segment without discussing apple, but microsoft falls into the category of companies competing with apple. >> hold it? >> if you own it, you can take some profits, a lot of profits. it's going to come in. and dividend, a lot of people talk dividend on microsoft, they're paying a 2.5% dividend. you can do better elsewhere. >> discovery, products up 76% in the quarter. still a problem with oprah but the stock at 45. buy, sell or hold? >> buy discovery. here's why. discovery was able to increase

across all segments. so discovery's able to increase from ad revenue. they were able to increase internationally, which is very important. you buy discovery here. >> the dow closing in on 13,000. you've got a couple of picks here that you think might be buys if we get there beginning with stanley, black & decker? >> if we're going to continue through 13,000, not get there and just roll back over, it's going to be because of a housing recovery. and for housing recovery, you have stanley black & decker. the stools are for residential housing also commercial housing. a way to play a recovery in the economy is to be long stanley black & decker. >> and tyco at 49.65. >> here's more of a defensive name. tyco's not going to do anything too exciting until september comes. come september you're going to get tyco splitting into three separate companies. so if you have a choppy market

between now and then, tyco's a defensive name with a very strong balance sheet to get you through that. but once they split into three different companies, ty, i think at the very least adt is going to be acquired by private equity firm. >> when september comes, reminds me of the old green day song. >> yes. >> sue, back to you. >> straight ahead wrap up our power players week in style. katie nixon is with us and we're talking $163 billion under management. we'll get her take on earnings and europe and find out where she's putting some of that money to work. ty and i are back in two.  oh! [ baby crying ] ♪ what started as a whisper ♪ every day, millions of people choose to do the right thing. ♪ slowly turned to a scream ♪ there's an insurance company that does that, too.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm seema mody. let's take a look at the markets and see how they're trading right now. some optimism behind a greek bailout? not so much. dow and s&p trading higher but nasdaq down. some pressure in the semiconductor index. look at the vix. it's trading down by almost 6%. and then taking our attention to commodities. a mixed picture there. we have oil trading at $103 a barrel. gold though seeing pressure down .2%. the dollar trading slightly

higher and 10-year note at a 2% yield. among winners and losers in the s&p, let's look at those stocks right now. we'll get to that in just a second. here we go. first solar, seems like every day there's a new news item that's driving the stock either higher or lower. today the stock is trading higher by 7%. the company has settled some permit issues. that's why the stock is trading higher. we also have heinz coming out with better than expected street reports -- beating street estimates. the stock trading higher by 4. 8%. and at the top of the hour gilead sciences, the worst performer in the biotech index down by 15%. let's take a look at commodities. gold and other metal prices getting ready to close right now. bertha coombs at the nymex. >> thanks, seema. as you mentioned in the energy pits we are seeing prices still high, but a selloff across the board here in terms of the metals today. copper, the worst performer for the week down 4% on continuing concerns of rising inventories

in china and slow demand. gold, a real poppy week where we went from resistance level at the top down to support and then pretty much flat a little to the downside on the week. the currency and gold analyst at citi index says an interesting phenomenon is developing with those high oil prices. the gold-to-oil ratio is coming down. it's now at a 6-week low. and historically he says that has been a bullish sign for global stock prices. over to you, sue. >> thank you so much, bertha. stocks kind of moving sideways right now. markets are waiting for that approval, perhaps, of another bailout package for greece. so how do you invest given all the macro risk out there? let's bring in katie nixon, chief investment officer for private partners at northern trusts. more than $163 billion in assets. welcome back. >> thank you, sue. >> how do you handle the macro risk you have? you have so much money under management. you have to deploy it. you look for a little alpha in the portfolio, but how do you

handle the headwinds that are out there? >> we've been focusing really on some of the tailwinds that are out there as a counterbalance to the obvious headwind of the greek crisis. these tailwinds include some pretty positive fundamentals. we've had a decent earnings season certainly for stocks in the s&p 500 so far. so the fundamentals are quite supportive of this risk-on rally and you balance that against very stimulative monetary policy both here and clearly abroad. and now even in japan. so it seems as if the tailwinds remain quite strong. >> enough about risk. let's talk about where i can make some money this year. >> well, clearly it's a challenging year. i mean, we've already had quite a rally from the lows of september, great rally in october. and we've just continued to have some pretty good gains in the market. that being said though, valuations still look pretty reasonable, tyler. with the s&p 500 trailing just

around 13 times earnings. there looks to be some pretty good upside on some of these large cap u.s. stocks that have global businesses. >> and that's why you are overweight u.s. large cap equities. >> uh-huh. we've been positioned that way for quite some time. using that as a way to get our clients exposure to the global growth story really being driven by the u.s. and china at this point. but also do so in a way that mitigates the risk in some ways by focusing on very high-quality companies with really pristine balance sheets, strong cash flows and strong and growing dividends. >> how much more do you think the market has in it in general though? as you've mentioned we've had quite a run. and my fear is that the individual investor who's been sitting out will get in as they usually do right at the wrong time, unfortunately, because we've had such a run. >> you know, you're right, sue. we've seen some good flows in the last week into equities although year-to-date the flows have actually been negative. but to your point, absolutely,

you have to really keep the focus on on valuations and fundamentals. we could see upside here into the 1450 range for the s&p 500 based on a little multiple expansion and still healthy earnings. >> does it get tougher to make money as the election draws closer? >> absolutely. i mean, i think the uncertainty that's around the election process right now is going to create -- >> tax? >> 100%, tyler. the tax environment being quite uncertain. i think we all know nothing substantiative is going to happen on that front until the election is passed. so clearly that's going to create continued uncertainty for investors. >> how much of your portfolio would you put overseas outside of the united states, do you think? and if so, where? >> well, right now for our clients, as you said, tyler, we have a bias towards large cap stocks. so large cap u.s. stocks would be about 30% of our moderate risk client portfolio. on top of that we'd have 10% on the european markets, even with the apparent headwinds, the

valuations there are in some ways getting very, very tempting. so i would have 10% there and 7% in emerging markets. clearly we believe in the china growth story. it is not our central forecast that there's going to be a hard landing. so we like the emerging markets and particularly after such a terrible year in 2011, we've seen some nice rebound there. >> what about gold? >> tyler, we've remained quite bullish on gold. >> long gold. >> we've been long gold. and gold even in this risk valley has really performed quite well. so it's a great counterbalance for us with the 6% allocation to gold that we're retaining as our tail risk hedging strategy for our clients. it's really worked out well. and we remain really committed to that metal at this point given the continued support. >> you know, we're kind of on dow 13,000 watch. >> right. >> does it mean -- is it psychological to you? does it mean anything to you? to the individual investor it might seem quite important in more of a milestone.

does it matter to you? >> i think in some ways it does matter, sue. it's an important psychological level. and to the extent that we can break through that dow level and hold, i think it's positive for investors -- >> that's key though right? holding? >> exactly. >> you mentioned and a lot of our guests mentioned these triple hold u.s. balance sheets. >> right. >> these great big bull work companies. give me some names there, i don't care whether they're oning you're recommending to buy right now, but what kinds of companies, what industries, what names are we talking about here? >> well, i mean, we really like technology here. so obviously apple is a great example of a company that just has a lot of cash on the balance sheet. >> no debt. >> no debt. so we like that company very much. but even some cyclical companies like a dupont, strong and growing dividend, good balance sheets. stocks like that, tyler. >> interesting. >> would you like apple to give a dividend? >> that would be nice, sue. either a special dividend or some kind of a payback to shareholders.

>> all right. katie, it's been great to have you with us. >> thank you, sue. >> please come back soon. >> thanks so much. >> fantastic. so have you heard enough about the knicks's jeremy lin? we don't think so. so what other players we started to think what other blue chip players besides lin has the harvard economics department minted? here's a list. former secretary treasury robert reuben, class of 1960, fed chief ben bernanke class of '65 -- he's a year older than i am. graduated a year ahead of my. steve balmer, no doubt pleased microsoft stock is at a four-year high, the dow's third best performer so far this year. phil falcone, class of '84, brief stint as a minor league hockey player before turning to hedge funds and multibillion bet on lightsquared. not working out so well for him this week. deutsche bank, barry bausano, one of our power players earlier this week. and jeremy lin, what sets him

apart as professor told us all our graduates go to new york city and make buckets of money, but jeremy lin does it by tossing a ball in a bucket. let's hope for a seven-game lin streak continues tonight. >> indeed. >> and twitter has 100 million active users. they send a billion tweets every four days. >> it's stunning, isn't it? those are just stunning numbers. the question is how the company makes money on all of that traffic. and julia boorstin spoke exclusively to twitter's ceo. he will answer that question in just two minutes time. but we couldn't simply repeat history. we had to create it. introducing the 2013 lexus gs, with leading-edge safety technology, like available blind spot monitor... [ tires screech ] ...night view... and heads-up display. [ engine revving ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs.

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the scary story inside the charts. plus, rising from the ashes. why the old tech titans are back in a big way. and the best of the rest. we have the mid-cap tech names that are knocking it out of the park. that's coming up at 2:00 eastern on "street signs." now back to sue and tyler on "power lunch." >> mandy, thanks very much. twitter is finally going to start making money off all those businesses that use the service to connect to their customers for free. announcing a new self-serve ad platform that it's first making available to american express small business customers going to do it next month. julia boorstin spoke exclusively with twitter's ceo about this and other plans for growth. julia. >> well, tyler, twitter is opening the advertising flood gates. doing away with minimums and accepting ads from 10,000 am ex small businesses last month and anyone with a credit card later this year. now that it's about making money, is an ipo in the works? the ceo says definitely no. he's actually actively managing

a number of shareholders so he doesn't run up against the 500 shareholder rule which mandates financial disclosures. other than that, he says he's just focused on growing the business. >> it's working so well that i don't need to worry about a public market window or the opportunity closing or opening or any exogenous forces like that. we just don't think about those things. >> what he is thinking about is how to profit from a wide range of commerce. noting that companies offer deals, take food orders and restaurant reservations all through twitter. >> businesses are already conducting commerce on twitter. it is absolutely the case that there are opportunities for us down the road to take friction out of that equation and participate in that commerce. >> he tells me they're experimenting with companies doing business on twitter and presumably will figure out how to take a cut of that revenue. for more of my exclusive with

him, d go to my blog. >> we will certainly do that. you stay there meantime while we bring in john carney and kayla tausche for today's edition of the hot file. kayla, you just heard what julia said about twitter. weigh in here. can it make money? >> i think it can make revenue. i'm not sure it can make profit. i think the part of that campaign that julia didn't mention that she did mention earlier is that they're actually going to allow for political advertising. that's going to be big during this election year, but i don't think that's going to create enough of a revenue stream to create the sort of numbers you would need pre-ipo based on what we've seen from other companies, i do think some strategic players need twitter more than twitter needs to go public. so i think as far as it building out some of these platforms, that's important as far as a product is concerned, making money is something that's still in the early stages. >> john carney, you strike me as a twitter kind of guy. will they make money? >> i think they can make money. i think this is one of the steps they need to take to figure out

new sources of revenue. it's very hard to make money from local advertising, but twitter's found a way. this is a very smart play on their part. and i think you'll see a lot of other companies just copy catting what they're doing right here. >> julia, do you think they can make money? >> i do. and i think it's worth saying twitter already had estimated $140 million in revenue last year. i think that number will probably more than double this year in 2012. political advertising has already been in the works. this is the first political campaign that twitter has accepted ads. i think that is a strong business for them. but i think what's interesting here is right now with these small businesses, twitter is allowing companies that already use twitter and are already making the most of that platform to pay to amplify their messages. twitter will only charge if the ads work. if a company gets more followers or sees a sort of click through rate, see some sort of metric of success. so it's in twitter's best interest to make the ads work. and it sounds like based on the early tests that they are

working. this doesn't mean a situation like facebook. facebook drives more than half revenue from small businesses. and i think that whereas facebook can see growth from more big businesses, twitter's been focused only on the big businesses and i think it will see big growth in the small businesses. >> to the next topic. the up fronts versus new fronts as major online companies are planning an ad sales extravaganza this spring to rival television's up front model. >> i think it's going to be hugely successful. online advertising is very different from tv is they can trace the viewer online from all the data that they have about this internet user from the viewing of the ad all the way through to the eventual and possible purchase of an item. they can actually see what's effective here whereas tv advertising traditionally is an act of local faith. you have to trust you're plugging these dollars into an app and that someone will get

off their couch and buy something. via internet you can trade, so you can have a huge sell here. >> carney? >> i think this is very good news. we've had a huge problem with advertising in internet video. and it just hasn't been taken seriously until very recently people have started to. you've had a lot of people used to making ads for television trying to make ads for the net videos and it just isn't working out. this is a sign that the big new networks, the online networks that are going to be showing us new shows, are going to be really trying very seriously to sell their time. and hopefully the buyers, the advertisers, will get serious about it as well. figure out how to make ads work better on the internet on the videos because it really hasn't been working very well so far. >> julia, i'm guessing you think this is a good idea. >> i think it's a great idea. tv advertising is a $60 billion market. the videos online, that's just a $2 billion market. there's huge potential, but it's really complicate today buy those ads. this is going to make it simple for madison avenue. it's exactly what they need.

>> let's talk about yelp plans kayla to raise $100 million in a stock offering. winner or sinner? 15 seconds. >> i think that you'll have to wait and see. a billion dollars for valuation is a little bit high. the management's going on the road early next week trying to start trading on march 2nd. a lot of people are saying could facebook create a vacuum for these shares? i don't think so. yelp will cater to mid cap and even though industry peers the likes of trip advisor and angie's list, look at social names like groupon and zynga issued first earnings as a public company, it could go up and down. >> john, quickly, yelp, ouch or wow. >> i think ouch. they're a money losing company. they have competition from google and on their main things and then on mobile they have to compete with places like four square. i think that they're in a lot of trouble. >> julia, one word. >> i would say cautious. i'm lukewarm on this.

decelerating. that's all i can say. >> well done. well done. thanks, all. coming up next, two hours to go in the trading day and the dow is near a four-year high taking aim at 13,000. >> will we get there today at 12,944? what's the trade right now? and with the big weekend on tap in europe, they're all big weekends in europe, how do you position yourself for next week? the trader triple play around the bend. slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] now there's a mileage card that offers special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? ♪ [ male announcer ] the new united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in. [ male announcer ] aggressive new styling.

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right now the dow jones up 35 points. s&p 500 up about 2.5. nasdaq giving back a little ground. it's down 8.5 points. time for the trader triple play. at the nyse, mat ches lok and holly. i'm going to start with you, holly. we've seen a lot of volatility in interest rates this week. how important is this weekend and what do you expect next week in the 10-year yield? >> i think this week is critical. not only a u.s. holiday, but supposedly a decision coming out about greece and the eurozone on monday. given it is a holiday in the u.s. that bodes more for even increased volatility because you can't trade on it in the u.s. markets. next week -- >> go ahead. >> i was going to say you don't

have a lot of what i would consider tier one type of economic data domestically, but you have weekly jobless claims and they are going to correspond to the monthly nonpharma payroll numbers. they'll take a bit of added significance. >> matt, pick up on her weekend, there may not be developments or there may be developments in greece. how do you play it? >> it's funny. we've been talking the last four or five weeks about greece and haven't really had an answer. i don't expect anything to come out of it. you can take the dart board approach as far as investing goes, everything's up about 20%. large cap, small cap, mid cap, you have to ride this trend out. i think we hit 13,000 in the dow and then get a little intraspective and we have to decide how much do we take off the table going forward? >> anthony, let me turn to you. i just read an interesting wire story that says organic milk costs more than a gallon of gas, but i'm not sure that that's going to hold for very much longer. do you think gas prices are going to continue to move higher and oil? >> i do think they are both

going to move higher. right now we're right below some key resistance points in gasoline at 306 and crude around 104. if we get through that number in gasoline at 306, we could see 318 very quickly in gasoline. and let's not forget, you know, a dime a gallon means $1 billion a month that the consumer has to spend on gasoline instead of something else. and then all the other companies delivering things like that that are going to pass along that to the consumer, that higher price. so i think high gasoline prices could be very dire for the economic growth in this country looking forward. >> as the weather gets better, too, gas prices tend to go higher. what's your upside target on gasoline by around memorial day? >> i'm looking at probably around the record, which is wholesale about $4.11 a gallon. and in some areas of the country when you get closer to independence day, you could see $5 a gallon. >> yikes. on that note, guys, thanks very much. have a good long weekend. we'll see you next week. >> you too. >> and coming up, a check on the

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let's take a look at the

markets. up to the minute there. the dow industrials at 12,946. higher by 42 points now. about a third of a percent. nasdaq taking a breather down nine points. and the s&p up about 2.5. so will we have dow 13,000 today? might not look like it now but the last two hours can always tell the story. i thought we would go back and look again at the stock so many people love to hate over the decade and that would be microsoft. >> yep. >> here's a one week of microsoft. down today but up nearly 2% for the week trading yesterday at a four-year high. it's in the top four of all dow performers so far for this year. >> and it's holding that 30 level consistently which a lot of technicians watch. i picked the euro. look at that chart. the euro is getting beaten up right and left. right now it's basically up a little bit against the dollar. but it's going to be a key weekend. stay with cnbc because we are following the europe situation. and because there's no