at 7:00 tonight. >> wrap it up, dudes. have a good weekend. >> thank you for joining us, america. >> have a great long weekend. today, on the "closing bell," what will it take to get and keep the blue chips above 13 k. investors share their strategy for success. plus crude posting its biggest weekly rally of the year. will we see more pain at the pump? and is now the time to play oil stocks? what investors need to know, straight ahead. live from the new york stock exchange, this is the final and most important hour of the trading day. and we are in the final stretch. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo at the new york stock exchange. >> the traders are in a terrificy mood before the long weekend.

i'm bill griffeth. the dow is set to close again at multi-year highs. telecon among the leaders with verizon helping to provide support to the blue chip average. coming up, we're going to talk investment strategy with the dow less than 50 points away from 13,000. is it time to buy more, should you take some profits. we'll get into all that. who said they couldn't get things done in washington. after a lengthy battle, lawmakers in congress have passed legislation renewing the tax cuts and job benefits for millions of americans. more on that story coming up later on the "closing bell." >> let's take a look at where we stand as we approach this final hour of trading. just about 49 points on the dow industrials. you can smell 13,000. you can touch it. nasdaq looks like this, similar story here in terms of the interday chart. also looking like we are inching back near the highs, of course, happening right at the open today. s&p 500, nasdaq, negative,

rather, and the s&p 500 is near the high, with a gain of just barely up three points or so. >> with bob pisani off in search of drinks with umbrellas, courtney is here. >> i think bob's still the lucky one. interesting what we're talking about here today. likely going into the long weekends, a lot of short covering, long going into the weekend. if we get this approval for the second round of the greece bailout, we'll not be able to react to it until tuesday. that being said, by midday tuesday we could have a bit of a sell on the news type of reaction, because we'll miss it all monday when the markets are closed. we're not going to get 13,000 today. i don't think. but who knows, anything could happen in the last hour of trade. but the index just hit an all-time high. that's good news. >> again, right? >> again. and the vix dipped below 18. i'm not sure where we are right now. volatility really dropped. so that's interesting to watch.

we've got the crude rally going on. oil services at about a six-month high. definitely stocks to be buying in that group right now. and last but not least, we're seeing a big move up in the bp. news that there's a settlement with the government. they own part of the well that exploded in the gulf. shares moving up higher, bp on that right now. >> big move. almost 2%. thanks so much. >> thank you. >> let's take a a closer look at the movers and shakers. seema mody at the exchange with that angle. >> hey there, maria. for a second, after yesterday's big move, it did seem like investors seemed to be taking a breather, perhaps a little cautious of making any big bets ahead of the holiday weekend. just in the last 20 minutes, trading momentum has picked up. we have the dow up 48 points. s&p in the green. the nasdaq, though, after being up for four straight days is the key laggard. stocks we're focusing in on today, heinz, third quarter net

sales came in higher on strong sales growth, and emerging markets. ketchup is a big hit in india, fyi. the company best known for the red and white soup cans, they reported earnings this morning, higher spend on marketing and a cutback in discounting volume. the street still happy with what they saw. the stock up 2.5%. that's campbells food. semiconductor equipment, topped expectations. the street not happy right now. the stock is down better than 1%. lastly, a space that we've been following, hepatitis c, gilliad, lowest in three years. their treatment caused some patients to relapse. in response, its competitors on the move. moving sharply to the upside. look at vertex pharmaceuticals, as well as killion pharmaceuticals. these are premier hepatitis c

players. that's a look at some of the players in the biotech phase. >> let's get more on the markets and what's moving them right now. the "closing bell" exchange includes steve liesman and michelle caruso-cabrera. steve, let's talk about u.s. fundamentals first. we had the cpi out and it showed that oil prices are taking a toll. we've got gasoline going up quite a bit here. are we worried about inflation here? >> you know, bill, for a 2.2% year over year annual core rate, i would think that the economists and wall street would not be concerned over the cpi this morning. i was wrong. a lot of the commentary i got that there was a level of surprise. you can see the rising numbers there. the fed's forecast is for it to come down. a lot of guys on the street are not believing the fed. deutsche bank, joe saying the recent acceleration in the various price indicators suggest the output gaap. that's how much slack there is

in the economy. barclays echoing the same thing. we expect the upward trend to continue. and then comes in the commentary, steven stanley, the criticism of the fed, the fed continues to tell us inflation is running below 2%. i for one will happily take the other side of that bet. and rdg says core inflation pressures continue to build contrary to the fed's forecasts. this continues a theme of the week. better than expected data, and more and more commentary that the fed is running behind the curve here when it comes to the economy. and i know michelle, they're also running behind the curve in europe as well. >> michelle, the greek drama has been going on for a long time. you have to figure that the ecb debt swap lays the groundwork for this weekend's vote, doesn't it? >> there are reports that the ecb has exchanged a lot of the greek debt for extremely similar greek debt, but that would not

be subject to any writedown, that the private sector is going to face. they would do this because the european central bank does not want to take any losses on any debt they bought. they stepped in starting two years ago buying greece's debt on the secondary market to try to bring the country's interest rates down. the private sector, which owns very similar stuff, is being told they'll have to expect losses of at least 50%. the ecb does not want to do that. what we don't know at this point is once they do this exchange, and they hold this debt which is now free of any kind of future in position, if they still voluntarily say something like, you know what, we bought this debt at 78 cents, we'll just accept 78 cents rather than 100 cents on the dollar, which means they are making a profit. that's been very, very controversial. >> indeed. is it possible we get a positive vote on monday. is it possible. >> my betting is yes. i would say if you're trying to get above 50%, i'd say yes. it's higher than 50%, that we'll get something positive on monday, simply because they have

run out of time, because of this looming payment on march 20th. they want to get that cut in half, with the separate deal they're doing along the side. it's all these moving parts. but bottom line, i think to say no would cause so much chaos, they don't want to do that. >> you would think so. thank you both. have a good long weekend. see you later. >> let's check treasuries. we're seeing pressure there because of the increased optimism about the european situation, as well as the u.s. economy. rick santelli? >> if you look at a lot of the numbers, maybe they're not the kind of numbers we want to see. but they're definitely an improvement over some of the numbers we had been seeing just several months ago. if you look at a year-to-date chart of three-year note deals, and the same for two-years, the highest yields of 2012. let me stop there. i just heard from one of my cash dealers today that the dealer

community now is longer in the three-year sector than they've been for a decade. so we really want to watch this. as these yields start to break out on the short end. if you move further down the curve, certainly we see that the ten-year note right now is at 201. this could only be the fifth close of the year above 2%. but it's going to go right down to the wire, only one basis point away. you can see on that chart it isn't as aggressive a yield jump than the shorter maturities. you can see how the credit market in many ways was delinked from equities and delinked from the dollar. the dollar's been under some pain, maybe that explains some of the movement and things like gasoline and oil, at least a portion of it. in the end, the euro currency and what michelle's comments were and how the credit markets are moving does show that we'll make progress potentially if greece. but how long will it last, and will any implementation of the sacrifices they have to make, when will they happen.

back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. have a good weekend. and we're heading to the close. you can tell from the traders on the floor that we've got a three-day weekend coming. >> you hear them in the background. >> getting frisky here. >> how do they do that? do it again. the dow is up 50 points. we're less than 50 points away from 13,000 right now. >> retail earnings will be out in force. we'll get you set up for next week. which retail names are worth shopping for right now. >> plus, stocks may be slightly higher for the week, but oil is red hot. is it too late to cash in on crude? the talking numbers trade is still ahead here. >> after the bell, stay with us, allen is with us in an interview. >> how the heat map is shaping up. about 50/50 right now. green to red. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. happy friday, everybody.

also ahead, a look at next week's key reports on housing and consumer sentiment. find out what else is on tap in the u.s. and europe that could impact your investments, that's coming up right here on the "closing bell."

investors are going to be hit with a barrage of retail earnings come next week. so what should we all expect to hear about gross ma jins and inventory management following a big promotions during the holiday shopping season. courtney joins us with a preview on that. >> good afternoon again, bill. 80% of the s&p 500 have already reported their quarterly earnings. a lot of retailers still on deck. next week is going to be a big week. a big one, especially on tuesday. take a look at this earnings calendar. we've got macy's, walmart and home depot all reporting tuesday.

walmart target ahead of the earnings release, wednesday we hear from tj maxx and dollar tree. gap, kohl's and jcpenney will round out the week. johnson announced the ratings at the analyst's meeting. shares are taking a hit. while they did beat the street, they reported that their gross margin will fall this year, at least that's their expectation. and issuing this cautious guidance. a lot of analysts worry 24 is a pattern for retailers going forward. they're expecting tighter inventory management. that's part of being cautious. and we'll listen for management teams to focus on u.s. and global economic conditions as well as cost inflation. cotton prices have gone down, but that doesn't mean that there's not still some pressure there.

but really the big one is we are expecting fairly concerted guidance going forward after the highly promotional holiday and contraction on gross margin. could be leaving some to be desired if you're bullish on the retail stocks. that's expectations right now. anything can happen. next week will be a big week. >> courtney, thank you very much. in the last few months the group has been underperforming the broader market. is this a signal to buy in or walk. let's ask the experts now. john fisher, with fifth third asset management which has $16 million under management. and michael with morning star. gentlemen, good to see you. thank you so much for joining us. >> good afternoon. >> thank you. >> talk to us about how you are investing right now. where do you see the structure in retail? i know you have long-term concerns, and you see downside risk for the retailers, right, michael? >> yes, that's correct, i do see downside risk over the next decade or so.

there's am reasons we see at downside risk. the unemployment data will give resiliency to these stocks. but over the next decade, one, i think the retail sector is overstored, and amazon makes that problem worse. two, i don't think it's a fragmented industry anymore, but far from a margin neutral. a price war will start to develop. we've seen it develop in europe. walmart announced $2 billion in price investments and targets have price off of that. households continue to delever. governments in europe are obviously going to have to delever. after this election cycle, our government here in the united states will have to delever as well. that's not good for the consumer. the fourth thing is that supply and demand on oil is a long-term problem. so even once we get past the political crisis in the persian gulf, or possible political crisis in the persian gulf, i think the long-term trend for gas prices is going to be high, and that's not going to be good

for the consumers. we see more down side than up side potential. >> john, you're more positive on retail here. tell me what you think drives that thesis, and where you are investing today. >> we try not to paint the stocks all the same, either buy or sell. we think there are going to be losers within retail. we think there are going to be winners within retail. people are going to go out and shop, and people shop where they have good experiences, where they can get the merchandise that they want at the prices that they want. and the consumer will make repeat traffic appearances and repeat purchases at those stores. and those will be the winners. and multiple retailers will be the losers. we're trying to focus on the retailers that are generating the positive surprises in earnings, the positive surprises in traffic, the positive surprises in same-store sales. and you've seen that over the last two and a half years since the market bottomed in march of '09. you saw it at the end of last

year. even though the sector overall has slowed in relative performance. as you noted, it's been somewhat of a laggard performer over the last three or four months. and you will see it over the course of next week in the reports. and you'll see it over the course of the rest of the year. but there are going to be certain winners and certain losers. our job is to focus on and identify the winners and invest there and avoid the losers. >> yeah. but long term, michael, you say costco is the only name that you think there's upside, is that right? >> well, given what the prices are now, i wouldn't say that necessarily. when i look at costco and my defensive space, costco is the only company that i can say operating margins are not going to go down significantly. when i look at target and walmart, they're closer to a 7 margin at a retail business. when you look at driving incremental sales at walmart, you'll have to go against amazon, which has a well operating margin but high returns. you'll have to go against

costco. target and walmart, and also the dollar stores, investors like to look at walmart and say their comps turned positive. but when you look at walmart versus the dollar stores, over a two-year basis or three-year basis, and overlay that against costco, the market share gap isn't really closing, it's sort of still wide and staying there. so i look at two-year comp rates. walmart's been against negative comps for two years. they reported their first positive comp. but look at it versus the other competitors. >> everything's relative. absolutely. yep. it's a relative story. gentlemen, thank you very much. we'll see you soon. >> thanks, maria. >> can i just tell you that the s&p 500, according to rich peterson at s&p, is off to the best start in a quarter century. >> for the year? >> since 1987, when from year end 1986 to february 17th, '87, the index was up 17.9%. we're talking about the best

start in a quarter century. >> not bad. and we're setting highs for the day right now, within 40 points of dow 13,000, with the dow up 60 points right now. >> oil prices up nearly 5% this week. money moving in a lot of asset classes all week. we're breaking down the charts. >> later, former shell oil president, listen to this, he's going to explain, don't blame me for saying this, he's going to predict gasoline 3r50prices cou hit $5 in the u.s. this year. >> let's look at the rest of the commodity sector, how things are tra trading.

if you're just joining us, the dow within 40 points right now of 13,000. haven't been there since may of 2008. right now, just off a high set moments ago, up 57 points on the industrial average at 12,961. and some of the leadership in this rally today has been oil. which very quietly has been on a tear lately, touching a five-week high today at $103 a barrel here in new york. so, will that rally continue? let's see what the charts say as we start talking numbers today with mcneil curry, technical strategist at bank of america merrill lynch. you know, brent's gone to $120. and it seemed to butt its head

there and come back again. >> i see it going a lot higher. brent has been in a bull trend since, really, december of 2008. after last year's pause of about 11 months or so, we've since resumed that bull trend following the break of $116.60. >> that should park in the 167 area. >> now we're resuming the much longer bull trend. >> you think it could exceed that high we see back in 2008? >> i think we could see a test of that. marginal overthrow, yes. the trend is in that direction. i've been watching wti closely. we can take out effectively the $104.50 area, complete the head and shoulders base there indicating the bull trend is continuing. >> there's the chart. typically the spread between brent and wti is $10. it's wider than that lately. >> historically it was about $1 or $2 premium wti to brent. then it went the opposite

direction, about $18, $20. now you're starting to see it top around. brent could outperform over the next several weeks. but ultimately, wti is going to redeem the mantle of leadership, especially if it breaks out from the head-and-shoulder base. >> i was going to say, target for wti is at $130? >> $130, $131. >> you would expect that to demand destruction at some of those prices? do you see that happening again? >> certainly. the best cure for high prices is high prices, when it comes to commodities general live. yes. but at this stage in the game, we don't see that at all. the trend is quite strong. if you look at the term structure for the energy contract, like the deferred stock, for wti and brent, they look constructive. the trend is still very much in your favor. >> very good. that is if you're long, and you're not having to buy at the pump on that. thanks for joining us.

>> thanks very much. >> we're about 30 points away from dow of 13,000. the dow jones industrial average on the highs of the day as we approach the final stretch. take a look at where we are at 12,967. the dow creeping back to the 13 k mark. our next guest says the blue chip index will not be able to break through that level unless two very specific events will happen. we'll go through the events when we talk to him. take a look at how each member of the dow is trading right now. the weak spots, microsoft, pg&e, american express. we're back on the close will bell. stay with us.

welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm courty regular an at the new york stock exchange. we're about 35 points off. if we can look at the s&p interday, also inching closer to the key level 13,063, that we haven't touched since 2011. madison square garden, look at the shares, seeing it spike up after a deal is reportedly close

between time warner cable and madison square garden. msg is not commenting at this time. "new york times" is reporting that the deal is done. moving on, certainly last but not least, i want to talk about intel. shares of intel are moving higher to levels not seen since december of 2007. helping to push up the dow to 13,000. again, we're not quite there. at least not yet. maria, back to you. >> thank you so much, courtney reagan. consumer prices making the largest jump in four months since january. the consumer price index pushed higher by rising expenses for fuel, food, clothing and housing. over the last 12 months, core inflation has risen 2.3%. both the house and senate passed a bill extending the payroll tax cuts and jobless benefits. another bill is expected to be voted on this weekend to pay for the first, it allows the government to auction off broadcast licenses used for television, and wireless

internet. the availability of spectrum will eventually mean faster connections from mobile devices. a computer programmer at goldman sachs found guilty of stealing proprietary information from the company. he was serving eight years in a new jersey prison after his december 2010 conviction. keeping a close eye on the dow right now. less than 40 points, about 35 points away from dow 13,000. is the level sustainable and what will it take to move this market. >> is it me, or is it getting loud in here. joining us is david, student investment strategist at morgan stanley smith barney, and look who is at the new york stock exchange today, former white house director of economic policy, who is a pretty good whoop whooper, i understand. >> oh, yeah. >> you're in for a treat here. this goes way back. this is one of david's favorite

events here at the new york stock exchange, as we head toward a three-day weekend, monday a holiday because of president's day. traders celebrate that when the clock strikes 3:33:33, and we get this massive whoop-whoop sound. >> i want to say, our condolences to the family of gary carter. a great baseball player, all-star. may he rest in peace. a great man. >> hall of famer, great catcher, one of the great catchers of his era. here we go, gang. ready? you can't be talking during this. here we go. there you go. >> whoop-whoop. >> oh, and more. >> now we can talk about what's going on in the markets.

okay. >> okay. thank you. >> its gee to be with you guys. >> nice talking with you, todd. there we are. the tradition gets longer and longer every time. what were you going to say? >> richard nixon was known for whooping. >> he was one of the great whoopers. >> president's day coming up soon. >> the oil market has led this stock market higher. it's been one of the strongest sectors here lately. how much longer does that last, do you think? >> cold weather in europe, we talked about last week, the cold weather in europe, and also geopolitical concerns over things in iran, and how that's playing out. it's been a jeremy lin market. it's been infused with an enthusiasm, with a vigor that this young player has for the knicks. it's been resolved, recovery and resilience. >> is it justified? >> maria, we think not. we think it's a time to basically reposition the portfolios, take some money out

of these big movers, the financials, the industrials, the materials, the energy, take that out, put it in tech, put it in health care, put it in consumer staples, put it in utilities. that's what we'd be doing right here. >> would you be getting nervous getting toward 13,000? >> i'm worried about--we're on the cusp where the consumer has been tired, but tired of not spending. so he and she came out from the bumpgers, started spending. but gasoline is moving up precipitously. i think while oil has kind of gone along with this rally, i wouldn't be surprised if a couple weeks from now walmart starts telling us that their consumers are now shaving back spending because of the price of gasoline. it is something we need to be worried about. >> you know policy so well, you worked obviously in the white house. in terms of what's on the horizon, health care, you've got the supreme court about to come down with a verdict on whether or not the mandate that, you know, for the health care reform, that you have to have your own individual coverage,

how do you think that plays out? >> this is huge, maria. the supreme court won't give its decision until june. but in march, they'll hold the hearings. and so every single question that a supreme court justice asks at that hearing to the lawyers on each side will be reported immediately, and you'll see health care starts and pharma stocks rising and falling depending on the conversation in that room. that will take place the end of march. >> i think it's very, very close. if you look at it on an ideological basis, best guess is 5-4 in favor of overturning that mandate and overturning a key principle of obama care. >> and the oral arguments are not one hour, as they normally are, they're five-hour oral arguments. you'll have plenty of opportunity as todd said to -- >> the men in black and women in black are coming out. it can be scary for a lot of people. >> good to see you both. thank you, todd. see you in a few minutes. >> thank you, todd. thank you, david. >> news breaking right now.

speaking of jeremy lin, he may be responsible for breaking of a deadlock here. >> you might call it that. looks like according to "the new york times," reporting that msg and time warner has settled their dispute. as millions of subscribers know, it's been since january #st that they've not had the msg channel where they can get the knicks and rangers. yesterday came out that they met, but there were no details, and about 15 minutes ago "the new york times" reported that there was in fact a deal. >> we have now confirmed that, cnbc here as well, darren, just so you know. >> okay. so this might have a lot to do with jeremy lin. because since he came in the lineup, even without time warner, the ratings were up 109% on msg network. it's amazing that this happened

so quickly. >> it took jeremy lin to get the two together. >> and governor cuomo as well, as various politicians had to get involved in this nasty dispute between this huge cable operator that feeds the important market of new york city, at a time when the knicks now are suddenly a hot draw with that young man right there, the harvard graduate who has been cut by two teams earlier this season. found himself on the bench with the knicks about a month ago. and then was forced into play when anthony went down, stoudemire had to leave the team because of a death in the family and they have won six games in a row as a result of jeremy lin's spectacular play. they are playing tonight. they're back at home tonight against the hornets. and it's expected that the ratings are going to be big now. now people in new york city will get to watch that game as well. >> yeah. >> darren ravel, thank you for that report.

>> the market may be higher this week, but the options market is selling a different story. those details coming up. >> after the bell, former president of shell telling us where the u.s. economy is improving or nuclear tensions with iran is the real driving force behind higher oil prices right now. >> as we take a break, look at the standout performers in the s&p 500. bill and i will be back in two minutes' time. let's take a

solar. this one popping today, after the company got approval on changes to a construction permit that it needs to build a large solar plant. and to complete the $1.36 billion deal with ex se lon. and gillead's pharmaceutical is not going well. earnings did beat the street, however, morgan stanley is putting a short on the stock. marie a bill, back over to you. >> yakkjackie, thank you so muc.

cliff davis joins us now with the details on what he's seeing. cliff, what are you looking at? >> we've actually seen quite a bit of activity of clients coming in this week. possibly to take advantage of some lower volatility and buying short dated, options on global indices. we've also had a fair number of fires of way out of the money upside calls on vix. what's telling me is in the short or very near future you'll see possibly 100-point sell-off in equities. >> what do you want to do in that environment, in terms of equities right here? >> what we're really seeing is a number of clients we're in touch with are expecting there to be a decent sell-off in the near future. the options market, which is a great indicator, is telling us there might be a short-term decline. what we're seeing is either investors taking profits from a good rally starting at the beginning of the year, or expecting the eurozone and crisis to continue, and seeing a sell-off there. >> okay.

so sizeable sell-off in equities? what's your time horizon? >> what we're seeing is activity in the next four to eight weeks. so march, april expiration. clients are seeing from a 50-point to 100 point sell-off. there might be some moves in the near future. it's something you want to focus on. >> good to have you on the program. thank you so much, cliff. see you soon. >> heading to the close, about 15 minutes to go. pulling back from the highs of the session here with the dow just up 48 points right now. >> got the options action trade coming next. we've got "under the radar" energy stocks that could power up your portfolio. and seema mody is set to round up all the movers that are not in the headlines. but "under the radar." >> maria, there's a fat-busting obesity drug that could get approved early next week. and some stocks that are reacting to that news. don't go anywhere. don't go anywhere. coming up next. laces? really?

i'm back on the floor of the

new york stock exchange, here in front of the post where they trade shares of heinz, the food company. there's almost no more ketchup in the bottle right now. it is up sharply right now after reporting better than expected fiscal fourth quarter earnings. big sales increase in the emerging markets wars the real driver behind her, offsetting disappointing results in north america because of weak restaurant traffic, higher prices to blame there. today's rally sends shares of heinz around $52.38. technicians consider that a bullish move for the food company. and maria, our floor manager here is just pointing out to me it's getting ever closer to the magic number of 57. you wonder what happens when heinz 57 is achieved here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> interesting there. up 4.5%. there are other big movers today. they are "under the radar." we want to show them to you. seema mody joins us now,

breaking down the "under the radar" stocks. >> maxwell technologies, seeing largest interday move since may of 2010. outperformed on lower than expected fourth quarter revenue. the stock down better than 6%. another mover, real page, a provider of rental property management, first-quarter forecast coming in below analyst consensus. that's why the stock is down getting a beating. one of the genetic mapping device companies, that's lie technologie technologies, they were told to pay $50 million for patents related to genetic testing. that's why that stock is done. viva's obesity drug could approved early next week. the biotech firm is back presenting convincing data to argue its case. if approved, maria, this would be the first new prescription diet pill in 13 years.

kind of interesting. >> thank you so much. seema mody. the next guest is on a hunt for opportunities. let's hit options action and get the trade with brian stutland. brian? >> on the hunt is right. a name that's interesting to me is stone energy. a home-grown american company looking at exploration of getting gas and oil right here in the united states, in the appalachian region, in the gulf of mexico. the stock had a tremendous run in 2011, up 17% or so. 2012 has already been a great year for the stock. i think there's more room to run for here. valuations are still compelling, and with earnings next week, i want to echo a bullish sentiment in the options market. by march, a call. i'll sell a march 32 put against that. net net, the trade only cost a dime here. what i do is allocate cash in

case i have to buy the stock below 32. i have all the upside potential above 36. if the earnings come out great, i have the upside, if you look at a one-year chart, it could make a new high on its earnings play. it looks very compelling. this is brian stutland bringing you your energy play and earnings play for next week. >> thank you, brian stutland. be sure to get more "options action" tonight followed by "money in motion" currency trading at 5:30 right here on cnbc. we have the closing countdown right after this break. about nine minutes before the closing bell sounds. after the bell, allen krueger with us, laying out the white house's blueprint helping the economic recovery. look at the major averages as we approach the final few minutes of trading for the work.

coming up on the five-minute mark before the close of trade here. the dow is a little over 50 -- now it's inside the 50-point

range of the dow 13,000. does it matter? it's a parlor game we play with ourselves psychologically. does it matter if we hit a new millennium number, a new century number? sometimes it is. does that mean when we get to 13,000, that some traders will want to take profits? probably. but we'll wait to see if that happens, especially if a greek deal is achieved on sunday, as anticipated. we begin with this risk on week once again with the euro, that's how we began the week, how we finished the week. the euro this week, a weekly chart here, you saw the mid point of the week here is when the thought was maybe we wouldn't get a deal, and it came back when even the germans were talking about the likelihood they would be approving the greek debt restructuring deal on monday. wouldn't you know, ironically, it's a day when we can't trade here in the united states. the dow itself, up 1.22%, or thereabouts. yes, approaching that dow 13,000 level.

no, we haven't been to the dow 13,000 since may of 2008. so it would be a four-year high for the industrial average, if it were to happen. the big winner this week was the price of oil. again, over 1%, we're at $103.45 a barrel. and the biggest gain we've seen in a number of weeks for the price. and it has been the leader in the stock market, which we'll talk about with david in just a minute here. the risk off trades suffered this week, and it pushed the yield on the ten-year note back above 2%. it's sort of put a cap on the yield for the ten-year. we'll see if the buyers come back in. there's more supply coming from treasury next week, three more big auctions coming in the mid part of next week. gold, another. we feel that gold is ahead. it's no longer a risk on trade so it also suffered this week, down almost a quarter percent. and we'll watch that $17.10 range. that seems the support level for

that. the vix, back below 20. the yellow flag is off. this week it was down 7%. now in the 17-point range. if there's a fly in the ointment for the economy, which is looking better, one of them would be copper. the price of copper, this week, down rather sharply. the industrial metal is often a leading indicator for the economy here in the united states. this week, down 2%. and david, i'm sure you have a thought on that as well, its impact on the economy here. >> copper is an indicator of housing demand and also china demand. you look at the transportation index for this month. it's in negative territory. positive for the year. the transports for the month of february, thus far, bill, have eased off a little bit. our fly in the ointment potentially would be profits. as you know, the street is expecting 9% growth this year. and about 11%, 12% next year, 2013. morgan stanley's folks are expecting 3% this year, 3% next year. so at the end of next year, we

would only have $103, where as the consensus is for $119. so you've got to see the profits. where's the beef, that's where we are right now. >> in fact, the expectations have been coming in as we go through this earnings season here. we showed a moment ago how energy was the leader this week. we talked about that a little while ago. at some point, you would think energy prices get high enough, that demand starts to drop off, and rather than it being a leader of the parade here in the stock market, it starts to impede progress. will. >> it is something that will basically affect consumer confidence, consumer spending, consumer disposable income, and the gasoline prices go up, one of the most amazing stocks this week is microsoft. that stock is up over 20% this year. that big behemoth is starting to move. that's a good thing, in our opinion. >> would you buy microsoft still? >> yes, we're overweight in the stock. we like that stock, along with cisco. ibm.

oracle, apple. those are the tech stocks we would be buying. >> apple may be the stock of the week. it stumbled a little bit after it got to 500. >> we love apple. we think apple can go $550, $560. we like apple here. we would be a buyer of apple, because of the patent dispute in northern china, as you saw. >> the always dapper david. thank you. >> thank you. >> it looks like we're not going to get the dow to 13,000 today. the traders have a dilemma, do they buy ahead of this long weekend, especially when it appears the greek debt plan will be approved on monday? >> whatever reason president's day is one of the long weekends that you don't see the long positions go quite as long. for whatever reason, it happens this time around, they're a bit off. >> and we're going out positively with the dow up 46 points. now at