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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  February 21, 2012 11:00pm-12:00am EST

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that's our edition of 60 minutes on cnbc. i'm steve kroft. thanks for joining us. [ticking] i'm jim cramer, and welcome to my world. >> you need to get in the game! >> firms are going to go out of business and he's nuts! they are nuts! they know nothing! >> i always like to say there is a bull market somewhere. "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but teach and coach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. on a roller coaster day where
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the dow surged above 13,000 before reversing, s&p inching higher, nasdaq declining. got to ask ourselves, does that nice round, juicy, dow 13,000 number actually matter? you bet it does! i hear tons of people talk about what really matters isn't the dow jones industrial average but rather the s&p 500. taking out the s&p's high from april of last year. suddenly about ten points away. sure, it would allow us to break the double top pattern the market has been stuck in for ages plus every investment noticed the s&p is the chief focus. not the dow. 500 stocks in the s&p make it a much broader gauge of the stock market than the 30 names in the dow jones. i know that when i ran money at my old hedge fund i led every performance letter with how i did versus the s&p. compare how my charitable trust is doing, i compare it to the s&p 500. that's the key benchmark for professionals. the sophisticated players out
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there, it is that the dow approaching 13,000 shouldn't be ultra important. you know something, though? sometimes you can be too sophisticated for your own good. the simple truth is retail investors, home gamers like you, care tremendously about how the dow jones average is doing. when the dow takes out key milestones it is a much bigger deal than what's ever happening with the s&p 500 for home gamers. in fact the dow breaks above 13,000 you can make a pretty persuasive case that it actually means that the market could go much higher. why it matters so much to the actual performance of the market when so many of the smarty pants professionals say it shouldn't? what is that? because when you look at this rally we've had since the beginning of the year, its main attribute is it is being done with very few people aboard. there is hardly any there is hardly any participation in this market . this morning ann curry asked me a terrific question. whether the dow taking out its highs means anything for anyone
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other than rich people. you know what? as much as i believe in the power of stocks to enrich anyone who can afford to sock away some savings, ann's question is a difficult inquiry. rich people are heavily invested in the stock markets as well as the bond market, municipal bonds. they do stand to do much better than regular investors that can't afford to have a gigantic stock portfolio. but -- this is a huge but, 90 million households are touched by the stock market through pension plans, 401(k)s, iras, college savings plans. the stock market has been an unmitigated, shameless disaster for these smaller savers. for many the market seems like nothing more than a con job. kind of reverse robin hood. sans tights. takes you money away and gives it to the rich. curry's query is a smart one. my answer to her is a definitive yes. it does matter for more than just the rich.
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it's true we had a dozen years lost, lost, more than a lost decade for stocks. the asset class has been miserable for so long. but you know what? back during the bull markets, the '80s and '90s, stocks made regular people fortunes. delivering returns far superior to bonds. who is to say after this phenomenal famine that it can't happen again? that said, regular people need to know if it is safe to come back in. they need to believe that money can actually be made in stocks, not just lost in them. and when it comes to illustrating the moneymaking power of the market there is no substitute for busting through dow 13,000. headlines and allow brokers to call their clients with something exciting. it might even get people to open their statements and be pleasantly surprised after throwing their statements in a drawer or tossing them in the
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garbage for ages. and it is not just the dow. although that might the blue light special to get people back in the game. it is what happens once they are in. for five years we had market where volatility was out of control. drove me crazy. during this period entirely possible that between when you bought a stock and when you got the report on the purchase, you could be down. perhaps measurably, appreciably, from where you thought the stock was trading when you purchased it. regular viewers know i always preach that you should be using limit orders, which helps avoid some of this problem. not all of it because the volatility can still play havoc even if you are bidding below the market and being disciplined. after years of this kind of churning action of this crazy intraday volatility, i think people intelligently, including that flash crash, got sick to their stomachs, kind of like a real bad roller coaster that makes you feel very uneasy and not just the rides i threw up on like scream at magic mountain or apollo chariot at busch gardens or even the carousels at sesame place outside of philadelphia. you wonder why i wouldn't go on that new harry potter ride at universal, right? volatility. that darned thing is the vix of
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coasters. while volatility may mean lots of programmed trading with pros and fine with that, trust me when i say that volatility for the amateur investor means nothing but rigged markets and a loss of savings. plus, you get individual investors off the sidelines and they will realize you can earn so much more in dividends from high-yielding stocks than you can get from the sideline bonds. remember the most people save in tax free accounts. dividends are not tacked. much more bountiful than treasuries. cedar fair, a roller coaster i can embrace. american electric power telling me they can raise the dividend or waste management whose ceo we will hear from later in the show. you truly do much better as you reinvest these dividends and let their gains compound over time. so, yes, dow 13,000 says come on in. not the water is fine, but the
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water is better than you think. water is not as polluted as you thought. can a retail investor be slaughtered again a la 2008? if we get some horrible exogenous event. a war between israel and iran, yeah, you will get slaughtered. that's the risk you always have to take. not hard assets like gold and not cash squirrelled away in your tempurpedic. get the dow to power past 13,000 ask stay there. regular investors will say okay, let's just put a little money back in and when that cash comes back at last, we will reverse the remarkable trend of trillions of dollars that have been headed out of the stock market for very good reasons. because it felt rigged. it felt fixed. the volatility. when you consider how all the buybacks out there have vastly shrunk the floats of so many stocks that i know i look at, just the reversal of money flowing out, that will make a huge difference in price action. one last thing. companies in the dow, largely international and doing quite
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well or domestic and paying good yields. that combination makes me wish people would just buy the darned dow stocks. i have a lot more faith in those than the broader and much more professionally loved s&p 500. bottom line, dow 13,000, yes, it does matter. the moment we break through that level it will be flashing a big neon sign to investors everywhere beckoning them back to the stock market. and once regular people feel like stocks are not the enemy any longer, we can finally break out of a range that has trapped us for this entire century. let's go to jack in tennessee. jack. >> caller: hi, cramer. boo-yah from jack in tennessee. >> what's going on? >> caller: well, we are curious about how this is going to work out with wynn. steve and his partners seem to be having a falling out and there may be lawsuit. would you go long with this or short? >> i mentioned on "squawk on the street," there could be a lawsuit.
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however, i did spend an hour reading the wynn conference call. steve wynn, you are always welcome on the show. you are welcome at my house. you are terrific. they gave an absolutely fantastic refutation of why this guy had to leave. it was a little bit like the gaming license situation in a famous movie with marlon brando and -- well, let's just say, yeah, it was spot on. yeah. let's go to jeff in florida. >> caller: big boo-yah from florida. how are we doing? >> all right, sunshine. how about you? >> caller: not too bad. i have been following rim for a while now. they have been making headlines moving upstairs officers around. do you really think the new playbook software is enough to save the stock of the company? do they need to make bigger changes? >> you are in florida, okay. there's a team that plays in port st. lucie. spring training. the mets. they are making the moves, shuffling people around. you think it means anything? i have to tell you, rim is
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still a sale. >> sell, sell, sell. >> you can't go against apple's iphone. i was talking to siri last night, asked her the meaning of life. she said chocolate. i'm a backer of apple. i'm a seller of rim. >> coming up, liquid profits with oil hovering at nine-month highs, could this domestic driller continue to pump out mad money for your portfolio? cramer's exclusive with eog resources' ceo is next. later -- >> will apple go higher? >> cramer is turning to the technicals to see if the tech wonder is poised for a pullback or if it can climb higher on an all new edition of "off the charts." plus, trash talk? could one man's trash become your treasure? don't miss cramer's exclusive with the ceo of waste management just ahead. when bp made a commitment to the gulf,
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we were determined to see it through. here's an update on the progress. we're paying for all spill related clean-up costs. bp findings supports independent scientists studying the gulf's environment. thousands of environmental samples have been tested and all beaches and waters are open. and the tourists are back. i was born here, i'm still here and so is bp.
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the next time you go to fill up your gas tank and find yourself enraged by the sky-high prices at the pump, don't get mad. get even. with the price of crude surging to over $106 a barrel, a nine-month high, it is worth remembering higher oil creates both winners and losers. now there are a lot more losers than winners. every consumer who drives and consumes fuel ends up paying through the nose for gasoline. winners are out there. like all the oil producers that benefit from higher prices so you can't beat them. i'm telling you, join them and own them. it is harder to do better than eog resources, the largest producer of oil in north dakota.
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as well as more important, being the top producer in the eagle ford shale in texas. would two recent discoveries each have more potential reserves. people don't seem to believe me. you have got to understand. it is true! eog just reported a blowout better than expected quarter last thursday at the close. stocks trading more than a point below where it was before the results came out. yeah, okay. the stock ran up into the quarter. after the numbers this company delivered, i think it deserves to go higher still. get this. eog posted a spectacular 28 cent earnings beat off 87 cent basis. the revenues came in much stronger than anticipated. rising 55% year over year. for all 2011 it grew by 61%. details misrepresented the long-term process. they didn't like eog's forecast 5.5% growth in 2012. the reason the number looks so low is because eog plans to up the liquids production by 30%. company cutting natural gas production by 11% which is what
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they should be doing when it's so cheap. many of these analysts have missed this stock all the way up. they seem determined to knock it down. they are small thinkers. this stock is giving a 42% gain since i recommended it at $81. up more than 20% since we spoke to the ceo november 22nd. let's talk with mark papa, chairman and ceo of eog resources. incredible and amazingly widely misunderstand story. welcome back to "mad money." >> good afternoon, jim. glad to be here. >> i'm thrilled you are here because that was some quarter. i want to touch on what i think is important. you have a chart. it is in your presentation. page 17. increased total company net proved liquid reserves 39%. total company liquids reserve replacement 465%. how can people not realize that you are literally getting the rest of the company for free when you look at this eagle ford holding? >> yeah.
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i think the initial reaction on friday to this stock report was just the expectations were so sky high for eog and instead of hitting sky-high expectations we hit very high expectations and that was a little bit of disappointment for wall street. we are very comfortable with our game plan and we agree with you. it makes sense to be reducing natural gas production with these dismal times for gas prices and increasing dramatically our oil and natural gas liquids production. we feel pretty good about our go-forward strategy. >> can you also put another canard to rest? they got this big funding gap. i mean, $1.2 billion in asset sales. you could sell $12 billion in assets and we still wouldn't know or touch eagle ford? >> yeah. that's exactly right. we have had a funding gap for a
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couple of years as we really focused on growing the liquids, particular the eagle ford and at year end, our net debt to cap was 26% which i considered to be very conservative. i think that there is a lot of hue and cry about the funding gap but with a low net debt as we have in my opinion, it is just not that big of a factor. >> now people are always saying to me, jim, you recommend this oil company and it doesn't seem like they make more money as oil goes higher. seems like it is a gold miner. in your case, your prices are just giving people the amount that you get it out of the ground for and how much you are selling it for so they can understand the economics of your business. >> yeah. right now we have quite a profitable situation. obviously we are getting in the range of $105, $106 a barrel for the crude oil we are selling today. and if you take our oil and cost, they may be somewhere in the range of perhaps $40 a barrel including, you know,
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pretty much ddna or operating costs, so on and so forth. when you can find horizontal oil resource plays, and find them in a very large-scale manner as we have done, you can use the economy as a scale to really roll out pretty pleasant profit margins. >> do you think oil can continue to go higher and would it be lower if it weren't for the iranian tension? >> my guess is if you just set the iranian tension aside, that the stabilized price of oil, wti oil, would be somewhere between $100 and $110 a barrel. which is in the range it is today. i think people are underestimating the fact that even with these uncertain economic conditions, demand for crude oil is growing about a million barrels per day. supply, particularly non-opec supply, is just simply not
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growing. there is a tightness between supply and demand. you know, i think that the iranian situation, if it actually were to go into something a lot more war like, if you want to think of it that way, would drive oil prices probably too high and would hurt demand. at the current levels, i don't really ascribe a lot of price -- you know, input to the iranian situation. >> okay. now you mentioned that non-opec is not crawling. page 4 of your most recent presentation, which i like, online, and it is very easy to find, you talk about how u.s. crude oil production, million barrels per day, you give me a chart which shows a dot to the far right, 2015, 1.5 million barrels per day increase due to our drilling success. there is a remarkable story going on underneath that larger crude supply problem, right? >> yeah. there is.
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it is a domestic story and the bottom line is because of this horizontal drilling in oil shales, we are turning around declining oil production in the u.s. for the first time in 40 years. i might note we are doing this without any federal incentives, no r&d credits, no special tax credits. the industry using risk capital to make this happen. the increase that we are projecting between now and 2015 is being offset by areas like norway, the north sea, other non-opec areas that are actually on the decline during that same time frame. >> well, one last question. we are short of time. don't you think at $2.60 nat gas may have reached a bottom in the fact that lots of companies are no longer drilling and we also are in a situation where perhaps -- i talked to my friends at clean energy and westport innovations, we are going to see increased use by
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surface vehicles, trucks, of natural gas. give you an outside source of demand besides utilities. >> yeah. i'm not sure that i could agree with you that natural gas has bottomed at the current $2.50 price. i wouldn't be surprised to see it go 50 cents lower some time during the summer but clearly we are getting close to the bottom and the industry is responding by cutting back the growth. >> okay. more bearish than i am on that. that's important because you're an oil man. mark papa, chairman and ceo of eog resources. thank you for coming on the show. >> thanks a lot for having me, jim. >> look, eog has been a huge winner for us. you can read the analyst notes. they are not going to be nearly as positive as i am but we have street cred on this name. eog goes higher. you heard what he said about the price of oil. it can go higher even without iran. >> coming up -- >> will apple go higher? >> cramer is turning to the technicals to see if the tech wonder is poised for a pullback
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or if it can climb higher on the new edition of "off the charts." later, trash talk? could one man's trash soon become your treasure? don't miss cramer's exclusive with the ceo of waste management. all coming up on "mad money."
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in any given period there's some stocks so darned important that they help determine the entire direction of the market. and in this current year, no stock is more important than apple. when apple rallies like it did today the market can rally, too. when it falls, the market tends to give up the entire ghost. >> sell, sell, sell. since the beginning of the new year apple has been relentlessly pushing us higher. truly magnificent rally, but then last week something unusual happened. the stock reversed in a major way. and this reversal is puzzling a lot of investors. is it a top or apple has peaked and the stock's best days are behind it? or did shares simply get bid up
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too far, too fast, and they are taking a breather before resuming their march higher? hope it is not that kind of breather. it's crucial that we figure out what the heck is happening with apple. that's why tonight we are going off the charts with the help of dan fitzpatrick, brilliant technician, colleague, to explain apple's recent action, show you where it might be headed. i am about to give you fitzpatrick's view. a lot of people @jimcramer on twitter think that when i do one of these, it is my view. this is fitzpatrick's view. i'm trying to explain to you the way chartists work. that's my goal. to put last week's reversal in context, you need to take a look at apple's longer-term weekly chart. all right. you can barely see the pullback here on this one. it is the very last bar on the far right. but this picture nevertheless contains a lot of insight about what happened and what could come. fitzpatrick believes that apple's stock has gotten ahead of itself and what we saw last
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week was a classic example of -- this is always something i was worried about -- a buying climax. in other words, the demand for the stock was so great we got this incredibly steep move, remember that class we had, like a lamp kind of thing, a parabola. with the price advancing right up to the point where anyone who wanted to buy apple already owned it. that's a tear. i'm not a chartist. anyway -- hey. picasso. when the demand for the stock was exhausted last week, the market was overwhelmed with supply and apple reversed, which is -- see the big supply. so what's all this mean going forward? okay. let's first keep in mind something. apple has a tendency to move to extremes. all right. extreme highs. and as fitzpatrick points out the pattern with apple is for the stock to shoot up above its
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40-week moving average, but the latest move was more extreme than any we have seen before. true parabolic move, stock going higher in a straight line. that's the first symptom of a buying climax. how about the second one? volume. okay. here we are. at first apple's recent rally began on lower than average volume. the volume moved up as the rally unfolded and buyers became increasingly desperate to get their hands on some shares. now looking at this chart, fitzpatrick has some good news and some bad news. the good news is that even though the latest rally was extreme we had been through this sort of reversal before in apple. and it fits into an established pattern. you get very strong moves higher, okay. followed by multi-month consolidations, where apple either drifts sideways or slips slightly lower, but nothing worse than that. you can see that these periods of consolidation happened four times just in the last 2 1/2
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years and they are not anything to fear. eventually apple's 40-week moving average catches up with its share price. remember that's that line. okay. and then the next leg of the rally unfolds. that has been the whole pattern since 2009. however, apple's current price is about 31% higher than its 40-week moving average. that's big. so fitz thinks the next round of consolidation can last a while before apple moves higher again. if the pattern holds, then fitzpatrick believes apple will drift sideways or slightly down for a while. it will be kind of like this. as that comes up. okay. and there's no reason to buy it up here because you will have plenty of time to pick some up, possibly at much lower prices, before the rally resumes. that's because it could also be like this. so it is going to be one of those, and he's worried it will be like that. okay. that's the good news. all right. to see the bad news, check this out. check out apple's daily chart.
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this is a little frightening. last wednesday, apple made an intraday high at $526 before it reversed and went on to close about 29 points lower. what happened on wednesday is called a bearish engulfing pattern where apple opened at a higher price than the previous day's highs and closed at a lower price than the previous day's low. to technicians like fitzpatrick, this kind of engulfing pattern represents a complete rejection of the previous uptrend. it is the exhaustion event that has fitz believing the rally here is done! at least for now. what's worse, this engulfing pattern occurred on a huge spike in volume. three times the average. i'm calling it the engulfed tonkin resolution. remember, to chartists, volume is like a polygraph that tells
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when you a move is telling the truth. okay. and that huge surge in volume wednesday indicates to fitz the reversal in apple is the real deal. fitzpatrick believes apple's peak is a hard ceiling of resistance that prevents the stock going higher for some time. he thinks buyers will back away from apple and allow it to fall simply because there is no urgency for buying the stock. now that the parabolic move has ended. the way fitz looks at apple the last 50 order points were about momentum hedge funds. investors piling into the stock to catch the next leg of the rally. dumb money! now that the momentum has been broken, weak handed investors will sell it and cause it to gradually sink lower and until all the momentum chasers have at last abandoned ship. if apple can break through that ceiling at $526, he thinks you have to buy it. something that has to be on people's minds given apple's twelve-point rally today.
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the reason -- because it takes a massive amount demand to chew through the supply created by the reversal like we saw last week and that demand can proceed to propel apple much higher. my view, all right, look, i -- i don't even care about the chart when it comes to apple, frankly! sure. it can head down. weak hands. what i care about is apple's earnings! and apple's earnings power, and it is huge! perhaps as much as $55 a share for fiscal year 2012. so huge i can't abandon the stock which is why my charitable trust owns apple. i have to tell you the trust is not a seller. despite tremendous price appreciation. regardless of the graphs. when you get a big decline in the stock with that earnings power, you have to step up to the plate and buy it! takes out this line and takes out that line. how about it takes out this line? that's what i care about, bottom line. fitzpatrick says the next leg of the apple rally can only begin
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once the momentum hounds in the stock early last week, euthanized. me? i'm sticking with my price target either way. i'm not a fundamentalist. i'm a fundamentalist, not a technician. i believe in the fundamentals. i respect the technicians are far more cautious than i am about apple and can have a self-fulfillingly negative view. one that says apple can't get back to last wednesday's heights before any time soon. me? i'm in it for the earnings. i'm not in it for the chart. let's go to debbie in new mexico. debbie. >> caller: hey, jim. thanks for taking my call. we love you here in new mexico and an albuquerque boo-yah. >> thank you very much. always reminds me of "breaking bad." i know i can fit in as a bad guy in that show in a nanosecond. >> caller: symbol ctsh. they have a strong balance sheet with heavy cash, no debt, consensus, strong revenue and
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net income growth, and it really caught my eye. it is not moving. what do you think will make this stock move? >> i think the competition is too tough there which is why i have been telling people i like sap. a german company that actually preannounced to the upside. that's the one you want to be in. it is an apple roller coaster. you need a dip before a rise. i don't know. i think you just need to own it. >> can you handle the heat? cramer gets you fired up for a searing hot lightning round. and later, trash talk? could one man's trash soon become your treasure? don't miss cramer's exclusive with the ceo with waste management, just ahead. look at all this stuff for coffee.
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oh there's tons. french presses, espresso tampers, filters. it can get really complicated. not nearly as complicated as shipping it though. i mean shipping is a hassle. not with priority mail flat rate boxes from the postal service. if it fits it ships, anywhere in the country for a low flat rate. that is easy. best news i've heard all day! i'm soooo amped! i mean not amped. excited. well, sort of amped. really kind of in between. have you ever thought about decaf? do you think that would help? yeah.
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priority mail flat rate shipping starts at just $5.15, only from the postal service. a simpler way to ship. [ technician ] are you busy? management just sent over these new technical manuals. they need you to translate them into portuguese. by tomorrow. [ male announcer ] ducati knows it's better for xerox to manage their global publications. so they can focus on building amazing bikes. with xerox, you're ready for real business.
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before we get started with tonight's lightning round, william weldon, retiring. coming off the wall of shame. this is the j&j ceo who i know many people think has done a
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terrific job but i always point out that there have been so many recalls here that it was time for him to leave. alex gorski is the new ceo. like the stock very much and i think there will be a lot of wealth created by mr. weldon retiring. and now it is time, it is time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." what's that about? rapid fire calls. i don't know the questions ahead of time. my staff prepares the graphics on the fly. play to this sound and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the lightning round. let's go to jesse in california. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. hey, what are your thoughts on rr donnelly and sons? >> driving on 684 this weekend coming from boston. i see a plant and i say i'm going the look into that company and see if there is anything there. there is nothing there. this is a company that literally is a commercial printing company and there is not a lot of commercial printing to go around!
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i want you to sell. mike in illinois. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. if i buy hanes brands, will i like them? >> no. there are so many good apparel companies. ralph lauren pulling back. those are all superior. stick to best in breed. jackie in new york. jackie. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. this is jackie in brooklyn heights. first-time caller. >> brooklyn heights. i used to live there! >> caller: really? >> yeah. what's up? >> caller: we would like your opinion on regeneron pharmaceuticals. >> a lot of talk that there's new inflammation problem with this drug. until we get that clarified we will let the stock come down. a monster win here. we don't want to jeopardize it. greg in connecticut. >> caller: hey, jim. how is it going? >> real good. how about you? >> caller: good. love the show. >> thank you. >> caller: calling about dag.
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>> @jimcramer on twitter all over me. how can you not like zag? i don't like zag because to me it is a commodity. there are a gazillion of them. what's the issue? i don't like the company. i don't think it is doing that well. if it is doing well i still want to you sell it. in the end they that's a commodity business. daryl in wisconsin. >> caller: a huge, huge fan. i love you and santelli. >> he is the best. what's up? >> caller: picking up crm before the report. >> you know what? i think you have to wait. why do i say that? i think it will be a good quarter. thought the last quarter would be a good quarter. people bought the stock got killed in it. let's see what they have to say. i think he's terrific. i would buy. if i'm a betting man, go deep in the money. i'm chastised.
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i'm chastened. i have to see the number. let's go to jim in south carolina. jim. >> caller: hi, mr. cramer. a big alabama boo-yah to you, sir. >> roll tide, sir. what's up? >> caller: sell or hold, please, netflix and frontier if can you tell me? >> you know what, comcast unveiled something that to me sounds like the definitive netflix killer. today it is going to be the lead story in "the wall street journal" because i work for the company i want you to read that story and not take it from me. but to me it reads bad for netflix. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round.
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incredible rally we had this year, high-quality problem. it has become really hard to find high-quality stocks that haven't already had huge runs. where is a guy supposed to find a decent bargain in this market? how about with waste management, wm for you home gamers? top provider of waste disposal and landfill services in north america. a company uniquely tied to the u.s. economy. since more stuff we produce and consume the more garbage we create. stock up a little less than 7% since the beginning of the year. trailing the s&p 500 which is up
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8%. small but we have to always point these out. waste management just reported a better than expected quarter last thursday. two cent earnings beat off a 61 cent basis with higher than anticipated revenues. guidance for 2012 was conservative. faces bunch of hurdles in the first half of the year and hardly any in the second half. waste management's results should start to shine. best of all they pay to you to wait for the turn but 4% yield i keep telling you about. that's why i'm thrilled david steiner, president and ceo of waste management is here with us tonight to talk about the quarter and what comes next for his company. welcome back to "mad money." >> hey, jim. good to see. >> did you i -- everybody always mentions waste management to me as the company that began "the boss." that was the president. that was the ceo. first undercover boss. gave you a level of visibility. think there is a new level of visibility. i see the advertising.
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you are starting to recognize things are getting better. i felt from that conference call that waste management was getting energized again the way i remember it. >> yeah. you know, i have to tell you, you hit the nail on the head. we will have the first half head winds with natural gas prices and things like that. second half should be when we really start to see our earnings grow. we are seeing a good steady recovery in volume. not being -- nothing that's going to be huge growth but we're seeing good steady growth and expect that to continue through 2012. >> the vp of finance said you have improving volume and smallest declines since 2008. which is lower than what people thought. that's better, right? >> yeah, a little better. marginally better. we need to start doing things -- for us it is all about finding those solutions for the customers. you know, we want to get market share and want to get it at the right price and the right margin. we are going to get that market share by providing great environmental solutions.
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>> now, the orientation and one of the reasons we like your company so much is that $675 million in dividends paid out. $500 million in buybacks. our viewer wants dividend and you gave dividend boost of 4.4%. how do you allocate your capital you decide to give more dividend? >> you always talk about it when you talk about waste management. we are one of the very friendly shareholder companies in the s&p 500. and you know, that's what shareholders want. today's market, in today when you have so little stability when today the treasury yields are at 3% and under, getting a 4% yield from a good solid company like waste management, a great thing to have in your portfolio. >> that's why we will not stop recommending your stock. you mentioned natural gas prices are lower. lot of people are probably confused because i have been saying that you are a pioneer of using consolidated natural gas trucks. you also produce a lot of natural gas. >> we produce energy. we produce a lot of methane gas
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from landfills tied into the price of natural gas. that affects us. you are absolutely right. they are not only a great financial investment, they are a great environmental investment. we will probably will spend about 90% this year, in c&g trucks. >> will you be looking at the new west positive rt engine truck announced? heavy duty engine. do you already use their current westport cummins line? >> we use the current one. and you know, obviously we are looking for all of our manufacturers to find a better way for us to create a more efficient garbage truck. not only through cmg, lng, making it lighter and more efficient truck. >> now, is recycling starting to go the right way? >> yes. recycling prices last year were phenomenal. you know, a lot of what we do is driven by commodity prices. more and more i say we're becoming a materials company. not a garbage company. >> right. >> when you look at commodity price last year they were very strong. this year, they are still strong. they are still above the five-year average. they are just not as strong as last year. that creates a little bit of a head wind. still a great business for us. great return on capital for our
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business. >> you mentioned construction industry. home depot this morning, the ceo committed to a good dividend. talking about how he is seeing a turn in florida. florida is better than the national average. are you feeling that in florida? >> frank is an ex-lawyer like i am. one of the great truly ceos. >> he's truly gifted. >> very humble. what i think is a great leader. and you know, we haven't seen a dramatic turn in florida. what we have seen is stabilization. >> right. >> off of that stabilized base hopefully we will start seeing some growth. if we see it in florida that will be real good for us because we have a lot of business in florida. >> you are the low-cost waste management company. who is cutting price here? why is someone losing money to take business from you? they have to be. >> and it is surprising, jim. because we have such a huge
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capital base if you focus on the return of capital you have to do two things. you have to gain market share but gain it at that high margin and get that right amount of what we call yield management. so from our perspective, with that high capital investment we have to continue focusing on the yield. you know, it is always competitive. every industry is competitive. we got to separate ourselves by providing that great customer service. >> i think that's what will happen second half of the year. lot of things will fall in place. stocks only a little bit behind the s&p but when you add that yield in, that's what matters. keep reinvesting the dividend. i want to thank dave steiner, ceo of waste management. [ tires squeal, engine revs ]
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on a day there is a lot of bullishness about dow 13,000, let's remember that a good investor thinks not only what can go right but also what can go wrong. and the wrong column right now, i got one big worry that eclipses all the others. $5 gasoline. yes. we are sliding towards a world where you have to pay $5 a gallon at the pump. and i don't know how it can be stopped as long as iran is posturing in the persian gulf and developing nukes, other than through demand destruction which would be yes, really bad for the whole economy. go back to 2008 when oil spiked at $140s. gasoline peaked at $4.11 that summer.
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it had a huge impact on the economy, both here and abroad. it was very negative. after the housing crisis had begun and the fed cut rates in the u.s., $4 gasoline was just enough to start us on the path to the great recession. that recession along with overwhelming fact oil prices have been drilled by speculators that time cut short while others used the thinly traded futures to corner the petroleum market only cost oil to plummet taking gasoline with it. some would say it got too expensive too fast and people found ways to cut back. that's what demand looks like. this time, though, speculators are playing a role, most recent 20% jump in brent crude can be laid directly at the doorstep of iran and given europe is so much weaker than it was in 2008 the u.s. producing so much more oil than 2008 and china is not accelerating the use of petroleum, simply no way that oil prices deserve to spike much higher than where they are based on the demand. so if demand is off the table
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that leads to hoarders. not like the show where people hang 18 dead cats with ribbons around pipes in their kitchen. i'm talking about real users of oil hoarding it because they are afraid israel and iran will go to war. i think these are legitimate worries. anyone that dismisses them out of hand is not being realistic given the current iranian government stressed that israel has no right to exist. that means container ships are being held back. speculators are using ahead of users. time honored concept if there ever were one. it means the prices aren't going down until the iranian situation is resolved. i don't think israel will stand for it even as the western powers seem too timid to do anything. looks like $5 gasoline might be in the cards. $4 is here already. i paid $4.17 in massachusetts while visiting my daughter this weekend. all the worries i have of the economy this is at the top of the list. i believe $5 gasoline could set the whole economy back. while i know natural gas can
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bring the price down longer term if it is embraced by washington, nothing can roll the price of oil back except some movement by iran to stand down from its nuclear program. stick with cramer. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier. and celebrex is not a narcotic.
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