steve weiss, ticker. >> wlp. managed care, raise prices, like it. >> patty. >> cbi. higher gas. >> john. >> utx. >> brian. >> buigld. >> tu for watching. have a great weekend. thank you very much. three hours to go in the trading day and investors are wondering will it or won't it? will the dow close above 13,000 for the week? and maybe more critically, can stocks keep rising as oil climbs higher and higher? we're going to hit the debate from every angle. >> we certainly will, ty. and also big blue's big move. ibm up 55% in two years. you heard me correctly. it's a huge factor in driving the dow higher as ibm approaches $200 a share, does it still have room to run? >> and investors have been feasting on restaurant stocks, but will gas prices take a bite out of their margins? no shortage of metaphors or

insight as i look inside the sector. >> i'm tyler mathisen and mandy drury and brian shactman, the friday edition of "power lunch" begins right now. it is a friday. forgot about that, ty. oil prices high er. we'll get to bob pisani in a second see if it will fall through 13,000. the s&p up a third of a percent. tech outpacing it. also the markets tracking the price of oil of course very closely right now we are at 108.88 getting to 109. we'll talk to sharon in just a minute as well. nat gas seeing continued pressure heading for 2.50. the euro, above 134 up 2.5% for the week. midday movers, salesforce.com a big, big winner. earnings and revenue beat expectations. and of course agency -- ad

agency a share buyback. that stock up 4%. and check out chelsea therapeutics. 59.3%. fda recommended approval of their high hypo tension. stock down 3.25%. crocs down 8%. sales down 18%. down beat outlook. keep an eye on that stock story. deckers, the same thing. tom brady not helping. uggs. we have 13,000 and 108 in oil. we have team coverage. bob pisani at the nyse, sharon epperson at the nymex. but we begin with bob and the question whether will this hold, bob? >> the improving u.s. economy makes it more likely than not that we will hold. we've had a great run. the s&p's up 8% since the beginning of the year. we're at multi-year highs in the

s&p. i want to concentrate on the dow for the moment over 13,000. what's important about that is since the last time we were here back in 2008 levels, there's been some real biefr kags. notice ibm up 57%. remember that number. caterpill caterpillar's been a monster. coke has been very impressive. i would not have coke in the top five, but there they are. now flip it around. look at the losers since may 2008. the financials no surprising, alcoa and poor aluminum prices. ibm up 43% and hewlett packard down 40%. ge and at&t taking up the rear. a lot of different -- this is not everybody moving in one direction at all. finally, i want to make a quick note on what's happening today. big cloud computing ipo. all these cloud computing ipos are doing great.

bazaar voice went public today. brian, anything related to cloud computing's on fire these days. >> another story whether they needed to issue more shares, bob. thank you very much for that. oil as i just mentioned topping $109 just below it right now up about 5% for the week. sharon, what's driving this next leg up? >> well, of course it's a lot. it's been a run. it continues to be a run, brian. that's the risk premium that's in this market. right now we're looking at oil prices trading at the same levels we saw back in may. and that was after we'd seen the libyan oil production cut by 1.6 million barrels. the potential loss of supply from iran is what is really driving this market. and that is what speculators, traders, whatever you want to call them, money managers, are counting on. and that is why we're seeing this high price for crude, brent crude and wti crude. brent having just crossed $125 a barrel as i've been speaking. already last week we saw net

long positions in this market for money managers as a record high. over 558,000 contracts. we'll get the latest data from the cftc in a couple hours. you can bet there are money managers continuing to pile in as oil prices are boiling here. add to that the fact we're seeing more fervor in the u.s. market after goldman sachs this week told investors to sell some wti and buy some brent crude -- rather buy some wti and sell some brent crude. therefore we've seen the wti catching up as a result. you mentioned earlier, brian, about consumer confidence and the fact we are looking at oil prices up 11% so far this year. gasoline prices up about 40 cents. so why is consumer confidence at the highest level we've seen in a year? well, keep in mind it's a lagging indicator. and that is a big factor. citi saying there's about a six-month lee time here for the consumer confidence to catch up to what gas prices are. and with gas prices expected to be well over $4 in the summer months, look for consumer

confidence to definitely fall. back to you, tyler. >> sharon, thank you very much. switch on the "power lunch" power surge and drill down on some of the storys that are driving the day. let's sort of pick up where sharon just left off. it's about soaring energy prices and the impact on the economy in the markets. as you probably know, our steve liesman spoke exclusively with treasury secretary tim geithner about that earlier today. and steve joins us from washington with the highlights of his big interview. now, mr. geithner, steve, indicated there's a silver lining in there. but my question to you is, fact or political spin? >> well, i think it's a bit of both, tyler. secretary geithner seemed less concerned about europe these days saying the financial crisis is less likely to derail the u.s. recovery. but he's more concerned about higher oil prices and especially the impact of global tensions around iran and its nuclear program. >> you're seeing two things work to push prices higher. the first is that growth is gradually getting stronger. not just in the united states

but around the world. at least outside of europe. that's making people more confident in the expansion. and that's helping push the prices higher. but also, you know, iran is doing some saber rattling and causing uncertainty in that context. >> geithner said "iran can do a lot of damage to the u.s. economy, but achieve little success in getting other countries to support the sanctions." adding that the obama administration could consider using the strategic petroleum reserve to combat higher oil prices "in some circumstances" but did not say if the current price spike is one of those times. tyler. >> geithner is traveling to mexico this weekend, steve, for a g-20 meeting of the finance ministers. so what is his message going to be there on the european financial crisis? >> a br firewall. that's what he wants the europeans to do. meanwhile, in the back rooms what they're going to be talking about is this big imf fund. but geithner's message was pretty clear today that the europeans need to come up with a

big firewall on their own and that most countries in the g-20 will not commit to this imf rescue fund until they know what the europeans have put up. and he's urging them to put up a big firewall so this imf rescue package is not needed. >> thank you very much. >> despite a huge cost to revamp its business, jc penney beats earnings estimates but misses on the bottom line. will rising energy prices put a dent in profits ahead? courtney reagan is on the retail beat. let's start with the earnings. >> that's a good place to start. jc penney did report a gain of 74 cents x items but beat the street and guidance which was lowered last month. revenues disappointed at $5.43 billion for the retailer's first earnings release since announcing transformation plans to become america's favorite store. same store sales fell 1.8% for the quarter. total sales fell 4.9%. the exit from the catalog and catalog outlet businesses, but

the internet sales for more than 3%, that's weak compare today macy's whose fourth quarter online sales grew 40%. looks like they're down just slightly. earnings guidance remained unchanged. coo acknowledges that jps is "committed to delivering shareholder value through this transformation including the first year." an issue analysts are divided over. ceo ron johnson says jc penney faces tough first quarter comps where february trends below last year's at least at this point. so far responding positively to the changes. fashion apparel pricing highlighted in the monthly book as hoped. jc penney will have 100 shops within its store, but right now the current four are running strong double digit comp increases, significant improvement over last year. lastly johnson notes meaningful improvements and perception from consumer surveys.

>> it would be remiss of me not to ask what they think of the soaring gas prices. >> retail executives are taking caution tones on all of the earnings calls. the increasing price of gasoline is part of that. there are retailers that historically do better when you see gas prices increase. some of those lower end names. consumers trading down. or the costco sam's club part of walmart. they make a little bit more money. but i'm going to go through all the historics and see what moves when gas prices rise on monday. how's that for a good tease? >> looking forward to it. thanks so much, courtney. a little bit of homework for the weekend. get cracking. >> we have just talked about what kind of impact rising oil and gas prices may have on retailers. so what impact could it have on housing? maybe more than you think. our diana olick is looking at that question in maryland and she's also digesting the latest home sales figures. diana. >> reporter: well, that's right, tyler. we're out here in a brand new home in poolsville, maryland,

which is just outside the suburbs of d.c. you can get this brand new fully loaded 5,000 square foot home for just over $700,000 out here. you put this house inside the beltway, you're looking at well over $2 million. but look what you get out here for your money. you get the land, you get the size. unfortunately, you also get the high price of a commute as gas prices rise. in fact, the federal reserve looked at the impact of gas prices on home purchasing and found that for every 10% increase in gas prices, you get a 10% decrease in home construction over the next four years. and areas like this one that are far out. we spoke to the builder here, richard ket ler says he's not seeing that impact yet because he believes that the positives in the market right now are trumping that beginning concern about gas prices. he says affordability, mortgage rates, better jobs picture, all of that is helping to bring

increased traffic. he says he's seen a lot of new traffic in here in just the last month. also, now we saw new home sales today. they slipped a little bit, but we saw an increase in december home sales. they're basically flat at very low levels. but the builders are reporting to us that they are seeing much improved traffic. also seeing improved traffic on the websites. big jumps of people looking, a lot more page views. maybe this spring will have more to offer. again, if we see prolonged rise in gas prices, some experts say people will start to make different choices, try to get a little closer into the city although you do get a lot for your money out here. we've got plenty more on the blog. >> you sure do. one more question, diana, bank of america has stopped selling mortgages to fannie mae. why and what does it mean? >> it's all about the repurchasing of loans they claim were poorly underwritten. this is a big pushback by bank of america. you know, they were third in line selling to fannie mae. about 10% of their business last year. and they're saying we're not going to sell to fannie mae

because they disagree with the pushbacks -- with the buybacks. and they're saying that the loans they performed for 36 months, then they were well-underwritten and other factors beyond their control. bigger picture, of course they'll continue to sell to fha and freddie mac. but this is the banks getting more aggressive with the repurchases. >> diana, thank you very much. straight ahead on "power lunch," the s&p 500 is up almost 9% this year. the nasdaq, nearly 14% higher. but can stocks keep on rising if oil keeps rising as well? we're going to ask the man who oversees the management of $137 billion at russell investments. >> and as we head to break, let's look at some of the s&p 500 sectors. most of them in the green led by technology up .75. telecom is the laggard. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro.

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welcome back to "power lunch." rick santelli here on the floor of the cme group. you know, if you look at a 197, 198 yield in 10s, look at a two-day chart. you can see we've moved down rather aggressively. if you open it up to november 15th, you can see we tested the top of the range and we fail today break through it. as a matter of fact, at these levels this would be the lowest yield on a weekly close since

the first friday of february, which was february 3rd. now, if you look at the currency scenario, first, look what's going on with the euro. you can see the euro screaming best level since december. and the dollar index is euro centric so it's down a boat load. but there's a positive for the dollar. look at the dollar-yen. think about the energy usage and that's the best level for the greenback there since july. mandy, back to you. >> ricky, thank you so much. the dow is holding above 13,000. oil and stocks are surging since the beginning of the year. but the rise in crude has outpaced stocks in recent days. can both continue to move higher at the same time? let's bring in our power player, chief investment strategist at russell investments. great to have you with us this friday, eric. when you consider the spikes in oil have in the past quite often ushered in recessions, why hasn't the rise in crude prices held back stocks more? >> well, i think they actually are putting a cap on where

prices of stocks can go. our watch point -- we think if you can see oil maintain a level of over $120 a barrel for an extended period of time, say three months, you have to begin to recalculate your expectations for economic growth and therefore earnings and prices of stocks. >> do you see crude prices holding above $120 a barrel for an extended period of time, eric? >> we don't. we agree with secretary geithner. the increase has been a function of increased economic activity and greater confidence around the economic activity globally and the tension in iran. and it's the tension with iran that we think is going to come out of the market. we think it's unlikely that's going to result in a supply chain disruption. therefore, we think some of that pressure's coming out and we'll drop below 120 again. >> what are you telling clients about where to put their money, money,money, erik. >> we've been concerned about oil, the europe situation

continues to be a threat, but within the market we've been positioned on the pro-growth sectors. consumer discretionary, financials, technology. those have done extraordinarily well this year in a stunning reversal of what we saw last year. >> which emerging markets do you like? >> we like emerging markets in general and in total. we tend to underweight china for oftentimes structural issues. we're very heavily playing the china growth rate though through other countries and our direct exposure to china. in this case i think the most investors will be well-served by having a broadly diversified set over portfolios and continue to see more relaxation around europe, you'll continue to see emerging markets outpaced both developed, nonu.s. and the u.s. has been the case this year. >> where do you lean on the question of actively managed versus indexed? >> this year so far is looking to set up to be a very good active management year.

the best way to think about active managers and kind of the easiest way is they don't like utilities, general for a lot of reasons. last year utilities outperformed the broad russell 1000 by 11%. this year so far the utility sector's underperformed by 10%. that's going to be good for active managers and all the other bets they typically make. they're probably getting paid for this year. >> great to have you on the show. thanks very much. enjoy your weekend. >> thank you. you too. >> up next, three words that make our world go round. buy, sell, hold. oil surging putting the focus on stocks like exxon, johnson & johnson named a new ceo. >> so what do you do about these stocks now? we're going to make the call on those two and three more as "power lunch" continues. [ male announcer ] let's level the playing field. take the privileged investing tools of wall street and make them simple, intuitive, and available to all. distill all that data.

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how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of america's biggest cities. siemens. answers. back above 13,000 for the dow currently at 13,003. if it closes above 13,000, that would be the first close above that level since may 19, 2008. in the meantime, it's time for three in 30. let's get straight to bertha coombs at the nasdaq. bertha. >> thanks very much, mandy. nasdaq at new 12-year highs. today sears one of the best performers. in fact, the best of the week off 20% extending gains after announcing that liquidity move. their shares have actually doubled year-to-date. meantime, wynn also up another 2%.

they have kicked off the board member from the macaw division. meantime nasdaq 100 going to reflect that forced redemption. finally, apple on track for an all-time closing high here above $520 a share. jpmorgan says it's now a sector unto itself. and if apple were to issue a dividend, that would prompt more fund buying and help the overall s&p. back to you, tyler. >> bertha, thank you very much. time for buy, sell, hold. a look at the stocks and stories that are making news this week. mike murphy is with us, "fast money" contributor and ceo of rose cliff. welcome back. >> thank you, tyler. >> let's take a first look at johnson & johnson. that sort of overstates the move today. it's only down 11 cents but looks like it's falling off a cliff. they're going to have a new ceo. >> yes. so the new ceo is in place, but what i'm looking for in johnson & johnson, it's not a buy or sell, it's a hold right now. the reason is, ty, you're getting a 3.5% dividend. you can hang onto that. i want to see where the growth

is coming from. they have a new ceo but not a strategic change. i want to see what are they going to do. is it going to be through acquisitions? how are they going to get growth story back. right now collect the dividend. if it goes lower to the 63 level pierces the 103 average to the downside could go lower. >> buy band-aids in that case. let's look at gap. a stock that's really had a heck of a hard time making headway over the past five years. >> it has. it's up 20% now month-to-date. you've seen gap start to move. they came out with earnings that were better. they raised their dividend, however the gap's a sell. you see what the market's telling you today. the stock's down. they've had five 10-years where they haven't been able to gain any traction. right now it's a show-me story. until they can put together a couple of quarters like this one, the gap's a sell. >> and uniqlo, h & m. let's go to the company with the fat drug.

>> vivus. if i'm ever here again and a stock up 80% the day before, i'm going to tell you to sell it and take your profits. vivus has upside from here. a third of the u.s. is obese. they have this obesity drug. what the upside is i don't think anyone really knows. so they don't have approval yet. remember, they just -- the fda panel voted to approve. if they get approval, this could go 30, 35, 40. and first obesity drug approval the first in 13 years. >> the americans i've noticed they've gotten fatter in the last 13 years. i speak for myself. let's go to the big granddaddy of all the oil stocks. put it in context of oil at 108. >> exxon mobil is only a buy here because oil is moving up and you have the threat from iran that isn't going away any time soon. so exxon mobil here. you buy, but, remember, they're trading at a premium. they have had some slowdowns recently. you buy exxon mobil for the push up in oil.

if for whatever reason, whether it's the president tapping the spr or for whatever reason oil's going to come back down below 100, i would get out of exxon for that trading. >> and talk a little about the oscar ths weekend. i know you have your card filled out. we're going to look at viacom. i believe hugo is one of their films and nominated for best picture. what do you think of viacom? >> viacom is a buy here. the main reason is the paramount and distribution -- the money they can collect from that content. so as so many people are struggling for content, they have a huge content library with paramount. the oscar bounce should help. i saw "hugo." it was a little scary. they also have nick elodeon.

we keep it up. >> we do too. have a great weekend. >> you too. >> i can't believe you put on any weight, tyler, over the last 13 years. anyway, straight ahead, a big boom for big blue. the shares are up almost 130% in three years. sneaking up now on $200 a share. what is behind the surge? and can it continue? stick around to find out. power's back in two.  oh! [ baby crying ] ♪ what started as a whisper ♪ every day, millions of people choose to do the right thing. ♪ slowly turned to a scream ♪ there's an insurance company that does that, too. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? ♪ amen, omen tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so, i want to trade at a place that really gets who i am

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welcome back to "power lunch." a couple key things i want to point out to you. we're below 2% in the 10-year, but right there, 12,998, we are back below 13,000. key thing to watch in this afternoon trading, will we hold and close above it? we haven't done that quite yet. listen, let's look at the sector heat map. even though we're not up by a lot, we decided the green and financials and telecom in the red. tech i pointed out at the top of the heat. few stocks we're watching, first solar, a brutal week. down 15% in the last week. with oil so high, you would think alternative energy would get a bid. not happening. sears holding getting a nice

followthrough here. rrdonnelly up for the year. barclays initiates with an overweight and $16 price target. and end with cadden, makes ball bearings. missed on eps and revenue. why is it up? they announced a special $10.50 cash dividend. you have to own by march 5th. that got people to buy the shares. gold, metal prices, sharon epperson at the nigh pex with details on that. >> looking at base metals versus precious metals. copper the best performing here at the new york mer condition tile exchange. biggest weekly gain in a month right now. keep in mind we are seeing weakness here in the close for gold and for silver. but this is a slight ease after a tremendous runup. silver up some 26% so far this year. the fact remains that the geopolitical risk and weaker dollar are likely to help the

precious metals as well in the week ahead traders looking for $1800 gold coming up next. back to you. >> all right. sharon, thank you very much. the last time warren buffett was on our air november 14th, he revealed his big bet on ibm. his investment is paying off. the stock is up more than 5% since then and headed towards $200 a share. right now at $197 and change. it is also one of the main reasons behind the dow's move to 13,000 and a smidge above. so what is big blue doing right? jon fortt is in silicon valley. jon. >> tyler, an amazing run and supportive analysts have begun pointing out that the valuation has gotten a little rich lately. the stock has more than doubled in that period. now more than 12 times forward earnings. if you assume 10% eps growth and 10 times is the high end of large cap tech valuations. here's a little of what ibm has been doing right. the new ceo was the architect of a plan to give investors an eps road map to $20 of operating eps

by 2015. she's also made commitments about global expansion and emphasis on software profits and a plan to gobble up valuable technology through acquisitions. here's what i've realized lately based on conversations with ibm folks. ibm growth hinges on two things. analytics and smarter strategy. they're tied together. as ibm services does work for governments and companies, they collect all kinds of data. that data makes ibm analytic software smarter. that helps them win contracts. it's a cycle similar to what google has going with search. if that strategy has legs, it's not clear that any rivals have the scale to compete. hp's struggling. oracle's systems approach has a different thrust. >> okay, jon, thank you. stick around because joining us now with his insight on whether or not big blue still has some room to run is tech analyst with ever coal partners. what do you say?

if you you want a good one this is your guy. >> depends on how you want to characterize the last three in five years has relative to most stocks. you're right, i don't think one buys ibm because they think it's going to skyrocket all of a sudden. i think what you really hope for in ibm is good steady execution. low double-digit earnings growth and hopefully a stock that goes along with it. that's what people have been getting at least. >> how much more upside has it got then? >> i think you can keep going. i mean, i think low double-digit growth in earnings can drive double-digit growth in the stock price. i think if the market continues to be friendly, it will help. irrespective of the market ibm's been able to have the slow steady progress. i'm looking for more of the same. >> how soon? >> so i have a $210 price target and it's actually rapidly approaching that. but i think the stock can go

higher than that still. >> is it your favorite in the sector? >> well, actually my favorite stock is apple. and i just think apple has both more growth and is actually cheaper in most ways. i also like emc. but those three stocks -- with ibm i think you get something a little different. you get maybe not the same amount of upside, but a lot more consistency in the ability to really sleep at night. >> jon fortt, i would like you to talk to us about the new ceo of the company and what the challenges are for her. >> well, you know, she's actually been a part of the to be executive team for quite a while. she put this 2015 road map into place. before that she ran services. she's very much been hands on with the core of this business. two things that to me are important to think about with ibm two little anecdotes. one having to do with best buy. work they've done with them to target exactly which kinds of incentives are likely to get

people inside stores. that's analytic software. and working with the police department to figure out certain things like graffiti op walls, car crimes likely to result in bigger crimes down the line based on historical patterns. people are willing to pay for data like that that can really save them effort down the road. >> what was the obstacle here? >> i think it comes down to their own execution. they have to continue to execute well, which they have been doing. i think if you look at ibm stock over the past couple years, it's been driven by both their earnings growth and earnings beats and the multiple has actually gone up to an extent as well. i think they can hold that multiple so now it means they have to continually grow with kind of the execution they've shown. one of the things helping it is with big cap large tech stocks, people are hoping for good execution. they haven't really been getting it from a lot of the big cap tech names out there.

so the worse everyone else looks, the better ibm looks as a result. >> thank you so much for joining us today. jon fortt and rob. >> thanks. >> warren buffett unveiling his big bet on big blue just last time he was on cnbc. so what is his next major play? find out on monday in a "squawk box" three-hour special. he'll take your questions live. and it all begins at 6:00 a.m. eastern. >> all right. up next, restaurant stocks pretty good right now. but could rising gas prices take a big bite out of eating out? >> and a $50,000 initiation fee. $150,000 in annual fees. it's where the 1% chill out and maybe strike big deals as well. we're going to take you inside this place and speak exclusively with its founder. you want to stay with us for that. [ male announcer ] how can power consumption in china,

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airline stocks be grounded. inside double-digit returns from vietnam to thailand, we're going to see how you can play it. and battleground stock, nokia, could the company's newest phone be a game changer when it rolls out in america? we'll analyze coming up on "street signs" and now back to tyler and the aforementioned mandy. >> dishing up baguettes instead. mcbaguette featuring a burger made from french beef topped with french made cheese. di jon mustard. >> it looks a lot better than a big mac. >> here's an interesting stat, a recent study shows 6 a% of the 2 billion sandwiches sold each year in france are baguette-based. that looks pretty good. >> it looks really good.

pretty healthy as well. speaking of restaurants, they've been adding a lot of flavor to investors' portfolios. mcdonald's among the slew of stocks at 52-week highs. if the economy continues to improve, is the sector poised to really take off? brian shactman looking at the restaurants. would you like a baguette? >> how do you follow-up the baguette. the name is too many siyllables for me. baguette's feminine, right? i don't know. listen, we have to carry on. restaurants are tricky. how much is due to the mild winter weather? we've talked so much about mcdonald's. we just talked about starbucks. i want to dig deeper. let's start with texas roadhouse. only a $1 billion company but it's doing some big things that big successful companies do. earlier this week along with strong earnings it raised its dividend and buying back stock. another key is they're growing at a strong but manageable pace.

chris at suntrust expects to expand at an average of 10% a year over the next five. some think it's a little pricey right now, but if the company delivers on guidance, it still has a lot of room to run. next up, darden. average p/e in the sector is 21 times. that's above the five-year average of 18. now, for that reason it's cautious on restaurants in general. but bullish specifically on dri which just updated guidance above consensus and multiple remains low at 12.5. that's the lowest in the entire basket we searched and yields 3.4%. and bob evans, they sell food and a bunch of other retail stuff, i'm told they have great breakfast. anyway, a great income play. grew the dividend 25% last year. don't expect that again, but you can expect it to go up. add in 11% gains in 2012 and you have some solid returns. now, if you want to go against the analyst consensus, most are neutral on bob evans and also

consider the comps are getting stronger and stronger over the winter. of course all these names extremely sensitive to changes in the economy. now, coming up on "street signs," another one that might even be more sensitive, going to ride the roller coaster world of theme parks and look at the harry potter effect. >> there's always a harry potter effect in every single sector. anyway, i have to ask you what could these soaring gas prices have impact on restaurants. >> it's funny, mandy, when darden came out, jim cramer saying gas prices going up, it doesn't matter this time around. maybe at these levels it won't have a huge impact. but if we trend where a lot of analysts say we're going to trend which is like $4.25 national average by april, i don't know how it can't effect what they do in their current and the second quarter. >> i'm going to take money directly out of your pocket. thanks very much, brian shactman. >> from the restaurant chains to

where the 1% may go to "power lunch" to network, in new york city many head to what's known as the core club, a private club. in a "power lunch" exclusive, let's meet the founder. welcome, great to have you with us. >> nice to be here. thank you. >> you started your business back in about 2005 or '06 as i'm recalling really at one of the high water marks in the recent u.s. economy. we are just talking about how economically sensitive how some restaurants are in the hospitality business, how sensitive have you found your business to be? >> well, we're not predictive of economic indicators, but i do believe we feel the vibrations of what's happening in the economy. in 2009 we dipped probably like everyone else. and we grew about 5% in 2010.

and up 15% in 2011. in january year over year we're about 25%. so i feel pretty good about that. >> a lot of private clubs, and i speak from some experience here, golf clubs in the metropolitan area of new york, have had to discount their membership fees. have you had to do that? and while we're on the topic, what are the membership fees and what do people pay in dues? >> it's a $50,000 initiation fee. and $15,000 in annual dues. we did not discount on membership fees. we just focused very heavily on the member experience. and so for us it was very important not to dilute the integrity of the pricing and actually focus on a very compelling and very relevant member experience. >> as we look at some of the members of the core club ranging from barry to jerry yan g.

one of the things that stands out, i haven't had the pleasure to visit your club, i'm fishing for an invitation there -- >> you're welcome any time. >> it is rather less formal and stuffy, if you want to say, than some of the other social dining clubs in major cities in new york city. i won't name names. am i right about that? >> yes. when we started, we really thought about the membership community we wanted to attract. so for us it was really important to accommodate what we thought was very relevant for our member community. we think about it as ted's meets sun valley 24/7. we have a globally relevant group of visionaries and leaders. and that would mean that we have to provide conditions for business success. >> can i wear jeans? can i use my cell phone? can i blackberry? can i ipad? >> yes to all of the above. >> yes to all of those things?

>> yes. >> and then apart from the dining and the hang out in the gym which we just saw, do you have programs that cater to the interests of your members? i assume you do and that that's a big part of it. >> yes. i would say that we have the hardware and software. the hardware being the physical space that you see, collection of architecturally interesting spaces infused with culture. and the software being a member experience service platform that focuses on profound customerization. our cultural programming could be anything from rex ryan and woody johnson discussing the state of the nfl to carl icahn and bill cohen. so that's a very important part. >> i think we should put andrew and rex ryan together and see how that works. thanks so much. we appreciate you being with us. >> thank you so much. >> you're welcome.

>> and if you get your invitation, ty, you're bringing me along. >> i'll get a plus one. >> what program is that? >> i don't know what it's called. >> how quickly we forget. coming up next on "power lunch," soaring oil prices in the dow 13,000. and how should you position yourself heading into next week's session? get ready for the trap l triple play that is next. our machines help identify early stages of cancer

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the dow moved back below the 13,000 mark today. the wti crude oil at $109.67. and a 10-year note is currently yielding 1.976%. what should investors be focused on heading into next week's busy session? time now for the trader triple play. we have mat cheslock. matt, i'm going to start with you first of all. if we do close today above the 13,000 mark, the question is, are we going to do it? >> i'm going to say no. i'm kind of hesitant about that. i think the fact people had fear of missing the market as opposed to fear of the market. i think it's translated to a

huge move up. i don't know if we can continue this. oil's one thing that does scare me going forward. $110 oil is not anything anyone wants to see as we come out of this. i would say no to that closing above 13,000 tonight. >> john, you are our oil guy. are you scared of oil as well at these levels? >> i embrace oil at these levels. i think it's indicative of the forward curve. look at brent it's a complete back wardization. this time around as oppose today may of last year when we saw high oil prices, i think the economy can handle it. we saw the nasdaq show the kind of risk appetite out there. we have a very weak dollar right now. it's been a very good har venger. >> i know you were listening to geithner this morning on cnbc, was there anything that scared you with regards to investing in financials that he said? >> certainly there was. he expressed support for the volcker rule. things have changed over the

last few months. i now fully believe that this administration is going to stay for another four years. when they come out and express things like that against the banks, seems to me they want to paint the banks as the bad guys. when banks try to make money, they're going to squash that any time they can. we've run a long way in the stock market and the banks have kind of been kind of a vehicle for risk-on/risk-off. i think they've gone quite a bit -- i would short the banks particularly like wells fargo and morgan stanley. >> back to you, matt, what kind of range are we going to trade next week? >> i think we probably trade a little bit lower. i'm not sure we buy the dips anymore. we've run so far so fast, i would be hesitant to buy the dip. i would look to see oil back off here a little bit. hopefully if we're going to get a rally. but i'm not so sure of that. if the oil goes higher, the market goes higher. >> gentlemen, enjoy your weekend. >> just over two hours left in the trading day. when we come back, our charts of the day. power back in two.  

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to tweet or not to tweet? that is the question. twitter's own co-founder is apparently asking himself according to "the daily telegraph" he believes overtweeting is "unhealthy" especially among twitterers who spend hours upon hours each day on the site. instead, he prefers if folks dip in and out of the site. so find what you want and then go and do something else. rather than stay on it on daul. he also said tweets will remain at 140 characters and of course any tweets to @"power lunch" is always healthy. >> overtweeting and overeating is unhealthy. i just started tweeting. i can't find enough to say. >> just make something up and you're on your way to the "power lunch." >> something like live tweeted bypass surgery.

probably a little too much. >> let's go to our charts of the day. who's going first? >> you are. >> let's look at oil over the past five years. and there you can see that spike back in '08 that took it up to about $150 a barrel. then down to the 30s or thereabouts in '09. this week a new high for the recent past $109. >> i'm doing a copy cat here. i'm doing a five-year chart as well. this is for the dow industrials because the dow's first close ever above 13,000 was back on april 25, 2007. little way to go. doesn't look like we're quite 13,000 for the close today. >> i picked chart of the week vivus. diet drug approved from the fda up 75%. you had oil going down, that's a big rock climb going up. pretty solid week. >> we had the guest on earlier on today who said essentially if you see in one day a stock going up 86%, you take your money and