market risk. the vxx which is the etf that tracks the vix, spiking in the last hour. the vix is up, oil is up, the dow turning down. thanks for watching. i'm out all next week. "closing bell" with mappndy and bill should be an interesting hour, and it's right now. >> interesting two hours, actually. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm mandy, standing in for maria bartiromo. >> i'm bill griffeth. we have another round of encouraging u.s. economic data coming out this morning that helped the dow spend much of the day hovering around 13,000. but once again, the market unable to hold that psychological level. and we're seeing a spike in oil prices, as it approaches $110 a barrel. that may be taking some of the wind out of the dow sails. light sweet crude settled near $110. and in the after-hours session,

close to that right now. we'll look at the impact of higher oil prices and what it's doing to everything from refiners and treasuries. >> i got out of the car, and i said, what did i miss? i see the vix and dow swapped places. the vix has spiked up, up by 4% right now and change. right now, with an hour to go in the trading day, as we were saying, with that spike in the vix, we hope to see the market push down to its session lows. currently we're sitting at 12,970. despite a couple of times, if not three times, bill, moving above the 13,000 mark. as for the s&p, it's currently marginally higher. and the nasdaq is also slightly higher at 2962. what is going on? let's try to find out with the birthday boy, bob pisani here on the floor. >> thank you, i appreciate that.

the reason it spiked up -- >> down 13,000. >> appreciate it. >> you have to be surprised. >> they didn't get the memo. the people upstairs. >> how much of this was ecb's start with some comments he made in the last hour or so on sovereign debt, and whether or not the greek deal is enough to -- >> a lot of uncertainty. i think the real reason the vix moved up, is there's going to be a fight going on with the t-20 in mexico this weekend. the head of the imf is going to go into the meeting in mexico city with all of the g-20 finance ministers and other important people and say we need more money. because there's a chess game going on. the european union has its own bailout fund. the esm and esfs. they want to try to figure out a way to increase that. and if they can do that behind that, christine lagarde wants to come out with essentially her own bailout fund and backstop the whole thing, in effect. whatever you want to call it, there's a chess game going on.

the germans have said they don't need to have any more money put into the bailout fund, either one of them. that's what the battle is going to be this weekend. >> isn't it germany? >> germany for the moment. they may be able to crumble with -- let's put it this way, the problem is, the germans are next week going to vote on the greek bailout deal. the german parliament is going to give them an earful about, look, now we want more money for the imf, and more money to increase the bailout fund, when is this going to end. i think you're going to hear a lot of german politics next week. meantime, i just want to point out, i know we're down today a bit. but the s&p at a 3 1/2-year high. just hit it earlier today. i talked about things being a little toppy, tech set a new high, energy's a market leader, materials, industrials strong. the one hot sector is cloud computing. another big one went today. bizarre world -- bizarre voice,

excuse me, priced at the nasdaq and trading well above there. >> a little too hot, the cloud sector? >> i think it was bizarre voice, and all these companies have priced there. bizarre voice, if you put up bright cove and greenway, these companies have priced at $11. it's $15. look at this one, greenway, priced at $10. now $15. >> nice to watch. thanks, bob. >> go celebrate. >> not yet. he's still got to work. >> no, he's been celebrating all day. here's some of the big movers and shakers at the realtime exchange. >> a lot of the cloud names, interesting they didn't sell out before they went public. let's look at the dow. we're down 17 points. but you can see clearly american express up more than 1%. and we have hpq, bank of america and dupont down 1% or more.

dotcom, cloud, had good q-4 numbers. equity upgraded to a buy today. sears holding with good follow-through from yesterday, up 6%. boston scientific and interpublic showing strength, showing 4.5%. r.r. donnelly up 3 1/3%. now, on the down side, sprint really at the bottom here, or was actually bouncing down a little bit. refiners getting hit pretty hard today. 5% and 3 1/2% respectively. first solar, a brutal week. germany cutting subsidies. you would think with oil where it is, we'd see more out of a space like this. under the radar starts a little later, and i'll talk about what is getting a bounce from the uptick in oil. finally, we've been watching gap all day, down 4%. more coal than cotton-based clothing in those christmas stockings. >> brian, thanks so much. treasury prices are on the rise. over concerns that the spiking oil prices could hurt economic

growth. rick santelli is in chicago with more. hey, ricky. >> hi, mandy. you're correct. this morning we had a university of michigan sentiment number. that was the highest level since february last year. that's a one-year high. what has the market done? we see it didn't pay as much attention as it normally did. why? because realtime confidence is getting affected in realtime by higher gasoline prices. if you put a chart up going back to the last time we had $4 gas, there's no doubt there's a pretty darn good correlation between equity performance and the price of oil. if you look at interest rates that were in fact looking at a two-day chart, rates down. open it up to the week and here we are two basis points down on the day and two basis points down on the week and it could be the lowest weekly close since february 3rd which happened to be the first friday of february. if you look further at other issues, i think one of the key points you need to bring up is

the dollar index. you can see the dollar index is at the lowest level since december, early december. well, that's because the euro's at the highest level since the same period. but it isn't all bad news for the dollar. it is closing about at a level on the dollar/yen, just shy of $1.81, the best since the fourth of july. >> we want to talk more about inflation sentiment -- i think sharon epperson is is joining us from the nymex as well. sharon, you have to believe even with the consumer sentiment number we're getting right now as gasoline prices go higher, the next report probably won't be quite as high, yes? >> consumer confidence from the university of michigan, that is a lagging indicator. gas prices are up on a six-month lead on that report. and so we're likely to see, as we see gasoline prices moving toward that national average above $4 a gallon, we're likely

see consumer confidence drop significant significantly. as people are getting ready for the holiday season, the consumer confidence will be at a real low. >> rick, where do you see in the fixed income arena the greatest sentiment of expectations for inflation? would it be in the inflation protected securities, the tips? they've been bidding those up so high, yields are so low right now, would you say that they are expecting high inflation because of what's going on with oil and gold and other things? >> yeah. no, i think if you take the ten-year note yield and subtract that from what's going on in the tips, let's say they're down 35 basis points, here in the 240 camp in terms of what the inflation ek peck tags is in that formula, it doesn't tell us when, when it does give us insight into is that there is a nervousness that with all the paper being printed, at some point, and we can't wait for that point when things get better, there's going to be an equal helping of higher prices

coming at some point down the road. >> you know, bill, with all this nervousness in the market, whether we're talking about iran or talking about the fact that we are looking at perhaps the economic recovery getting better, but not sure how strong it will be, there's still going to be this interest in the precious metals. even though we saw a slight pullback today and easing in gold and silver, you have to look at the run-up up so far this year. gold prices up about 13%. that rally is likely to continue traders say in the week ahead. >> i want to ask you, you were looking at the consumer confidence numbers. i know that actually the numbers have been pretty good for about six months. how much has it been tied into the fact that since october we have had a stellar run in equities, and people are probably feeling like they have more money in their pocket? >> i think you nailed it. i don't think the industrial average represents a glimpse of the economy in the same way it used to 10 or 15 years ago, or maybe even 5 years ago. but there's no doubt that it

helps confidence in investing. but at the epicenter, as bill gross said many times, is kind of the easy money, the accommodation, all the liquidity, then things can change rather quickly and rather fast as well. >> very quickly, sharon, we're at $109.68 right now, close to $110. don't you feel traders will migrate up at this point? >> it could happen, in light volume, in a liquid market, in the electronic session, tonight we could perhaps see it or sunday night. it's likely we could see the $110 level. now traders are talking about $120, talking about higher prices, maybe even $140. >> there goes the consumer sentiment right there. >> i would like to see the historical statistics and how many times a spike, or prolonged spike in the oil prices led to a recession. i know it has been many times. >> when it gets high enough, you bet. >> in the meantime, we're about

50 minutes away before the closing bell. we've got somewhere to go if we're going to close above 13,000. >> i think we're going to make another run here. they were among the biggest losers last year, but stocks like bank of america and netflix are leading this rally in 2012. is it too late to buy in on some of those? that's coming up straight ahead here. >> plus, those spiking oil prices, are they supported by fundamentals? we're going to break it down in "talking numbers." >> the increasing spread between brent and wti crude, will it continue to put the profit margin squeeze here on the refining here in the united states? should you take advantage of that? we'll talk about it at 4:15 p.m. eastern. >> as we head to the break now, the s&p 500 heat map pretty much evenly cut between green and red. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

also ahead, a look at next week's key reports on housing and consumer sentiment. find out what else is on tap in the u.s. and europe that could impact your investments. that's coming up, right here, on the "closing bell."

about 45 minutes left in the trading session. the industrial average pretty narrow range today, up as many as 29 points, down about 34. the target, of course, we're all watching carefully has been 13,000, which it did hurdle earlier in the day, before pulling back. right now down 15 points at 12,968. weekly volume this week, by the way, has fallen to its lowest level of the year. it was spring break in many parts of the country. here's a look at some of the best and worst performers among dow components. up side american sprez, pfizer to the down side. and bank of america down 1.5%. >> bill, a strategy that some traders like to follow.

the beaten-down names from last year have become big performers in the new year. the cnbc data team found the top five. four have been standout stocks so far in 2012. and only one alpha natural resources is down so far this year. are the stocks worth riding in the new year? stephanie link is director of research and vice president of strategy for the street. and chris johnson is director of research with the johnson research group. great to have you with us today. stephanie, do you think that the theory of worse-to-to first works? >> i think it depends on the macro. so far this year we've gotten better economic data, somewhat better earnings on low expectations. investors have had more confidence in more riskier assets. so i think that's why this year, so far they have worked. but mandy, this year has been so much different from last year, in that this year is a stock picker's market, versus last year when stocks were 95% correlated to the market. so you really have to dig in

deep here. there's winners and definitely some stocks that are a little ahead of themselves. >> chris, you don't think the worst-to-first strategy is particularly good, but you think the this is a good strategy? >> going in and find the horse ha lost the last race is not a good strategy to pick the next race winner. these are stocks i would look at and almost casually glance at. i think in this particular case, there are a couple stocks that are attractive as we head through 2012. >> which two? >> well, right now, one of them would have to be netflix. look at this company from a fundamental perspective, they have a businessline that i think makes sense. it's obviously pushing forward. i like netflix as one of the stocks that's going to be a leader in 2012. they're in good order.

they're not questionable. you don't look at companies that have failed last year and have questionable balance sheets and say this sa good strategy to follow. the other thing is the technicals. most importantly, if i can extend it for another second here, mandy, is the fact there was capitulation from the sentiment perspective. when you look at aig and netflix, less than 20% of the analysts have them ranked as a buy. the other five stocks are 40% or better buys. i like to see when the street has run away from a stock before i come in and pick it up and buy it. in this case, netflix and aig meet that criteria. >> a questionable balance sheet is definitely not something i would look for in a stock. >> right. >> we mentioned alpha natural resources as being one of the top five worst performers from last year. but is actually down this year. but you like this, why? >> i like it for the long term. it will be bumpy for the next couple of months, i think, but the coal industry has really been pummeled this year because of the low natural gas prices, and a switching, as well as weak demand. but you started to see

production cuts from a number of companies. alpha also has product cuts. a lot of bad news is already baked in the stock. there reasons i like it for the long term. and one is because they are a maker of high-quality net coal. prices have actually stayed resilient on the high end quality. certainly positions them well for the long term. more importantly, more near term if you will, they made an acquisition of massey energy. i think they'll be able to extract more cost energies in the near term to buy them some time. if you believe that china will continue to ease throughout the year, certainly the soft landing will -- and eventual recovery in that country will actually help the stock. >> i also see, stephanie, that you're not a buyer of bank of america, which did actually make or list. but we have to leave it there. thank you for joining us. >> heading to the close, about 40 minutes to go here. i still think we're going to make a run at 13,000 here. for bob's birthday, if nothing

else. >> anything could happen in the last 40 minutes. oil prices, very clear movement there. they're currently up, rallying to another nine-month high. can it keep on climbing. and what's the best way to trade it, to ride it? we'll break it down next in "talking numbers." also, gas prices, having an impact on the housing market. >> i'm diana olick in poolsville, maryland. you get a whole lot more house for your money out here in the exurbes. but your commute to work is getting a lot more expensive. how gas prices are affecting the spring housing market. >> here's how the major commodities have been trading so far today. mostly higher with the lower dollar today. back after this.

12k3w4r50i6r7b8g9s welcome back. i'm sharon epperson. we've been talking about the surge in oil prices. look what's happened to copper today. copper is the best performing commodity at the mer kak tine exchange. and copper keeps up with the price of oil, is due in large part to the geopolitical risk premium in this marketplace as well as the weaker dollar. keep in mind when you look at the metals complex across the board, we have seen a slight easing in gold and silver prices

in this session. but we've seen a strong run-up in those metals over the course of this year. and we are looking at copper prices playing a little bit of catch-up here, and again that geopolitical risk, the weaker dollar definitely a factor going into next week as well. >> you've got us talking now. maybe we'll just do copper instead of oil. less than an hour of trade to go. the story has been crude oil hitting its highest level in nine months in part about hopes of global recovery, the situation with iran. so is it set to go even higher from here and how do you play it? abigail doolittle joins us now to look at oil. we were saying earlier, we're that close to $110, that probably is high. >> two short weeks ago crude was below the 50-day moving average. now 10% above.

that signals an unsustainable move. crude's just going to keep climbing. maybe to $115 or so. more likely, though, support of that bottom channel, 50-day moving channel probably pulled crude quickly back down to $100. >> you've got a target price above? you're going to say -- >> i'd say 100. i'm looking more down side. i think $100 looks more likely. this move has been too far, too fast. >> what about the equities? how do you play it? >> that's one name i've been looking at, apache has come pretty far quickly as well. 20% up year-to-date. the last time it strayed above the 50-day moving average was back in 2009, quickly corrected back down. we could see a patchy, pretty quickly down close to $100 again. >> i got 30 seconds. show me copper. do you like copper here? >> i'm bearish on copper also. it's interesting, right now it's

breaking out of interday patterns. bearish patterns are failing right now, that usually signals a market change of some sort. could be up, but i'm still expecting it likely to be closer, closer to $335 within a few weeks. >> that would be quite a move from where it is today at $386. mandy, back to you. >> thanks for that, bill. at this stage, the dow is sitting below 13,000. if it does close above 13,000 in about, let's see, 35 minutes' time from now, that would be the first close above that mark since may 19th, 2008. is it a statement of just take your profits off the table? we'll get the trade on that coming up. as we head to the break, this is how the heat map is shaping up right now.

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welcome back. bob pisani down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. a point and a half gain in the s&p 500, believe it or not that's good for a 3 1/2-year high.

the big sector this week, believe it or not, cloud computing. i know, there's only a few stocks, but boy are they hot, hot, hot. today bizarre voice went public, $12. trading at $16. remember what happened last week? we had bright cove priced at $11. now that stock is trading at $15. that's just a few days later. before that, three weeks before that, greenway priced at $10. that stock's trading near $15 right now. this is the hot sector. next week, yelp is coming. that's going to be a hot one down here at the new york stock exchange. guys, back to you. >> happy birthday there, bob. >> here we go again. we're always the last to know why they're applauding on the floor. it usually has to do with whoever is ringing the closing bell. the latest tea leaf reading, consumer confidence at a high.

consumer sentiment index rose to 75.3 in february. economists say the improving job market is helping to fuel more spending, which roughly accounts for 60% to 70% of economic growth in the united states. elsewhere, treasury secretary tim geithner sat down with steve liesman this morning. he pressed the need for congress to lighten the load of the middle class. listen. >> even when gas prices are caused by stronger growth, just part of what's happening, people really do feel it. so it's important for congress to continue to do things to make the economy stronger overall and help lighten the burden on middle class families. >> elsewhere, new home sales snapped four straight months of gains, dipping .9 of 1% in january. but keep in mind, the department also revised sales figures from october through december, with

december showing the fastest sales pace in a year. all those were revised higher. so that was a little more encouraging. so how should you be investing right now that the dow has failed at least for the moment to reach that 13,000 level on the closing basis here? >> joining us here is david at morgan stanley smith barney, and patrick. great to have you with us. >> great to be here with you. want to give a shout out to the family of marie katherine colvin who lost her life in syria. >> absolutely. >> 100%. patrick, you do believe we can push higher from here. my question is, how much higher, and in what time frame. >> what we see, many investors have clearly milgsed this rally. we need to catch up. >> but all these people sitting on the sidelines, quite often the retail investors hear from,

for example, their next door neighbor, saying this is the stock market. >> maybe we need a correction. we are looking for any weakness of opportunity to get into the market. that's very, very clear. >> what do you think, sir? >> profits are the big driver, we think. profits will, in our humble view, will be up only 3% this year, 3% next year. the consensus is 7%, 8% this year and 11%, 12% next year. we come out with only $103 which we'll be looking at at the end of this year. and you're 100 points below where you are today. we would use this as a chance to reorient the portfolio, take profit in the financials and take profits in the tech stocks and put that into consumer staples, health care, utilities with a nice yield. >> patrick, are you going to buy what he's selling? you're a little more encouraged, but do you like financials at

this point? >> i would agree we it need to have a break and a correction. but, you know, in 2012 it would be better than in equity. you have bonds which are providing a good return. you have the asset classes, many would have long volatility which is a good bet. maybe shorting the negativity on the higher exposure to asia, where we're starting to see slowdown in china. >> i don't know about you guys, but i've certainly got greece fatigue. if i see another headline on greece, i don't know what i'm going to do. but i'm starting to feel the same way about rising oil prices. can we see rising oil prices and rising stock market at the same time? >> great point. we've had the last 60 months, that's five years, there have only been four times when stocks, bonds, gold and oil have gone up in one month. january was one of those, five times. that's the fifth time. every single time stocks, that's a media term peak, and they're

down by double digits a few months later. so we would say stocks could give some ground here. bonds are very expensive. but that oil price is concerning us. you've talked about it for weeks on this show, as it's marched higher. >> how long are oil prices going to be at this level? >> it sows its seeds of its own destruction. it hasn't been great. you've had the manufacturing goods, but the consumer has not been good. the confidence numbers not with spending. >> energy's been a leadership group in equities, would you buy energy stocks here? >> no, not at all. if oil prices continue to go up, it's not a good bet on the market. what's interesting is even if we have a drive on the economy, the vix index is remaining very quiet in the last weeks. even declining, which is very strange. that's the first time we see oil going up and volatility going down. >> thank you so much to both of

you. i apologize for jumping just a moment ago, a gentleman just fell on the stairs. he's okay. but i did have a sudden jump. >> rather bizarre. >> yes. i'll see you later when we do the "countdown" in about 20 minutes. we're down 12 points at 12,972. how bizarre is that. >> get ready to trade the close, though. find out why our next guest says investors should be paying close attention to the euro, and to silver. what they can tell us about the market's next move. >> after the bell, what is the food and drug administration doing to clear the big and growing backlog of generic drugs? dr. margaret hamburg's first forecast. look forward to that. >> here are some of the standout performers on the s&p subpoena today. but first, before we go to break, the "dividend." which telecom stock is the

outperformer so far this year, at&t, metro pcs or sprint nextel? the "dividend" pays off after the break.

just before the break, as part of the "dividend," we

asked, which telecom stock is the outperformer so far this year? at&t, metro pcs, or sprint nextel? now, the payoff. metropcs. i'm ber that coombs at the nasdaq. a new closing high for the year, and big gainers of note. the real headlines this week, viva getting a nod from the fda advisory panel. another 17% today. a huge move up for that company. sears, huge short position within sears. but after it announced earnings, the earnings weren't much to speak of. but it's restructuring plans to release more liquidity. look at sears, a huge week. the stock has more than doubled year-to-date. you just can't take your eyes off apple. you have to look at it as a sector unto itself.

within the s&p, its weighting is about 3.7%. that's more than basic materials, utilities and telecoms. and this week, you can see how big a move in apple as it looks at its sixth straight week of gains, a new closing high today. it makes up nearly half of the gains of the s&p this week in a weighting percentage point. two points just over four points. you can't take your eyes off that tech giant. back to you guys. >> all right, bertha, thank you very much. we've got about 19 minutes left here. time for a quick market stat check on the nasdaq. of course, we're watching dow, possibility of 13,000. but the nasdaq composite is pushing for its best close since december 2000. american beauty won best picture oscar that year, i'm told. right now the nasdaq is up five points, trading at 2962 and change. and another indicator we're watching right now, the

volatility index at the chicago board options exchange, as the dow moved lower, the volatility index, the vix moved higher, and hit a peak about an hour ago. right now it is up 3 1/3% at 1737. it has not settled above 20 since february 15th. we can watch the dow at the moment as well as it tries to come back of sorts, down just about eight points at the moment at 12,976. >> okay. well, investors have been keeping a close eye on market moves, of course. our next guest is keeping a close eye on the euro. and silver in particular. he says the levels in these areas are telling us where we're going to be headed next. well, peter is the director of equity derivative strategy at cantor fitzgerald. i want to start with the euro. because i understand, you think where we're sitting right now, it might be time to sell. >> yes, indeed we do. we've been looking at the euro

in silver as gauges whether the risk trade is on or off. the euro has had a nice run in here. and we said the last time we were on the program at $134 we would be a seller. we think the positive news out of europe is probably -- has probably run its course. and we would be sellers of the euro at 134. >> what about silver? you know, we're very much focused on silver as kind of a risk-on trade at the moment. it's also industrially tied to the economic cycle as well. do you feel we need to be starting to look at selling silver at these levels? >> yes, we think that's possible. although we don't have nearly as much conviction on silver as we have on the euro. silver will be an important gauge for the risk trade, as we start to see silver weaken. we believe that could actually lead other risk assets, because of the sort of hybrid nature of silver, as a precious metal, and as something that's correlated with economic activity globally. >> okay. thank you so much for joining

us, peter. you go and enjoy your friday afternoon and your weekend. >> watching the markets here as we head toward the close. about 17 minutes of trading left here. the dow holding. we're down 9 1/2 points at 12,975. the nasdaq and s&p holding on to fractional gains right now. we'll see if we can move higher as we move to the close. >> fractional being the operative word there. how can you cash in on treasuries despite extremely low interest rates. that's coming up next. brian shactman is ready to round up today's under the radar stocks. >> kenneth coal taking on kenneth coal. we're going to start talking ethanol again. ethanol stock that's up huge, next on "closing bell." to put your cash?tter pe here's one you may not have thought of: fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank. like no-fee atms -- all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now, depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture.

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i'm back on the floor of the new york stock exchange, in front of the post where they trade shares of nokia, which is up sharply on heavy volume

today. surging after the latest data showed the top htc to become the biggest world's windows phone vendor, giving it a 33% market share. some analysts caution, put things in perspective here, citing 2.7 million total windows phone devices that were sold last quarter, compare that with the 37 million iphones that were sold in the same time frame. kind of put that in perspective there. strategy analytics said nokia is capturing the smartphone ecosystem, is an encouraging baby step forward for that company. for you chartists out there, nokia's ten-day moving average topped its 30-day moving average. however, nokia shares are playing catch-up to other smartphone makers. erickson, and of course, apple, all rising on a 52-week basis.

mandy? >> okay. they may not be stealing the headlines, but there are some "under the radar" stocks making moves today. brian shactman joins us now with more. >> kenneth coal, the offer he's making, $15 a share. you can see right there, trading above that offer price. he already owns 47% of it, and has 89% of the voting shares. something the 15% premium is not enough. based on the three-month, it's had a nice little run here. so it's gone a fairways in terms of premium. higher oil means, yes, we're talking ethanol again. pacific ethanol up 20%. you look at a one-year if we can pop it up, and boom, it's had a long ride down. so it's got a long way to go before it can make that up. after google amounced it will liquidate shares, that sock down nearly 7%. hero, my favorite ticker symbols, just above 4.5%. the investors like the update on

the offshore fleet. >> thank you so much for that, brian shactman. have low rates kept you out of treasuries. now could be the time to maybe think again. let's find out the way to play with brian, managing member of the stutland volatility group. brian? >> hi, mandy. we've seen yields back up. bond prices are slowly starting to fall. if you're owning u.s. treasuries against a stock portfolio, you're in danger to getting negative to zero returns in the u.s. treasury market to offset any income you would receive from those bonds. i'm going to use tlt and use the options market for a better risk reward return on my money. by selling the march 15th put for about $1, i basically collected $1, plus i'd have to be getting into the tlt at the 115 level or lower. so now i have my break-even here at 114, a much lower level, essentially giving me a better effective yield on my money.

plus that dollar expires in three weeks. the annualized return on that is about 15%. much better than current yields in the tlt. so this is certainly a much better risk reward way to play things especially over the next few weeks. now back to you, amanda. >> my goodness, we've got a bevy of brins on the show at the moment. we'll go for a quick break and we'll come back with the closing countdown. it is oscar weekend. we're very excited about that. it may be more profitable than ever to be a winner. >> i'm julia boorstin on the red carpet in hollywood. i'll tell you what an oscar is really worth, and why it may be more valuable than ever. coming up later on the clo"clos bel bell". >> first, as we take you to the break, let's look at how the major averages are trading. as we can see, we're about 11 points to the down side on the dow. doesn't look like, unless we can make a remarkable comeback in

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td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? about 4 1/2 minutes to go before the closing bell. okay, we're not going to hit 13,000. but it did hit multi-year intraday highs. the s&p is on pace to close at its highest level since june of '08. the s&p sort of playing catch-up to the dow and the nasdaq which

have been hitting multi-year highs lately. i know we're all sick of talking about europe and focusing on greece, and blah, blah, blah. but we did get that second bailout package approved this week. and the euro went higher as a result. these are weekly charts here. you see the euro up two-thirds of a percent this week. against the dollar. at $1.3459. and when the euro goes higher, that dollar goes lower. what that does is gives oil permission to go higher as well. we went ever closer to the $110 a barrel level, that's just today. that's today they're a gain of 1.87%. overall for the week crude oil was up 6%. a decent gain there. what didn't go higher with it for the most part was the stock market. the dow today is down a fraction here at 12,971. over the last four days, it's just been marking time here, as we were all on dow 13,000 watch.

gold also stumbled. no $1800 for the price of gold. but it's had a pretty good run in the last few months here. now maybe it's hitting its peak at this point. as we pointed out earlier with abigail doolittle, the price of copper was the standout this week among the metals, up 4% just this week alone. the ten-year yield, still hovering around 2%. that's where the level it gets to, when buyers start to move in again. we spent much of the week at 2%. we had a very good seven-year note auction yesterday. and buyers came back. and again the yield is at 1.97%. the one we're watching, again, is the vix, the fear indicator. you saw very clearly today as the dow fell from that 13,000 level around midday, what was going higher was the vix, and the index is up 3 1/3% today. the leadership for the week, we look at the price of energy. that was clearly the leader. i think these are just today, the financials today down.

telecom, consumer discretionary lower at this point. you'll have your moment in the sun in a moment here, bob pisani. >> i want to give you a birthday present. >> come here. th >> this is a piece of maple sugar, you're such a sweet guy. you both deserve an academy award from the floor of the new york stock exchange, both of you. >> you are concerned about the transports at this point. if oil continues higher, you know, especially -- >> that hurts your energy consumers. it hurts your rails. it hurts your delivery companies, the big package companies, the courier services, bill. so there's been a divergence this month between the industrials, up a couple of percent. but the transports are down 4%. so that sets up one of these divergences which from the technical standpoint is not a good sign. so we would be using this as a

chance to basically take some profits, let the market fall back a little bit. this is a trading range market. we're not starting a new 18-year bull run until we get structural reform, investor revulsion and compelling valuations. >> it's the weakness in transports telling us that oil is indeed going to be a problem for the stock market. >> you said this. oil sows the seeds of its own destruction. when it goes up, it causes the economy to go down, basically causing the transports, that's what's basically driving it down. in my opinion. >> as we head into the weekend here, g-20 meeting, you wonder if anything comes out of that that will be of material interest to the stock market come monday. >> i think what you're going to see is tre not going to come to a deal. what's going to happen is the imf is going to be pushing for more money. the united states certainly is reticent, although mr. geithner made signs today we're going to get the europeans, try to get their house in order first. >> david, always a pleasur