among other things. it enables consumers to examine how interest rates and monthly payments overtime affected the cost of using credit. there lots of aps out there. that will do it for us. have a great night. >> per tonight's top three trades. they rise from 1465 by year's end. how about 1700. we will trade the monster bullish halls. looking for investment opportunities. the chairman of global markets weighs in for the fast money portfolio. we will bring it to you as soon as it crosses. this is fast money. before we get to the two super bullish reports and give you guys an update since we saw action that there was a pipeline

explosion in saudi arabia. >> that got brent moving higher. the highest level they have seen in many, many years. back below 126. wti is 108.82. that was the high when all this rumor mongering came out. >> you made it in the after hours session. >> the electronics session is light and the sellers have stepped to the sidelines and easy to mutual it higher. i wonder if we will get to the bottom of it. >> if you saw oil starting to rise, the stock market. nobody cared. even when the story came out, not the stock market came off the bid. nobody seemed to care.

>> maybe the report was erroneous or they can absorb oil shocks. >> when i jump to the conclusion, you have to decide is it a one off, one-person being crazy in saudi arabia or is this something big? without that it's hard to hit the sell button. the rest of the data in the world is decent. >> especially when saudi arabia is not the place we had problems. we had major problems, but had actual pull back in libya and iran and had a number of other issues that are the geopolitics. it should affect that and he is right. there was a quick pull down on the s&p. at $130 oil, 9% of global gdp and that extended the three months. they are major impacts. when you look at the pmi and a lot of them are out today, europe is in sub50 territory. china and india were good, but the reality is the world cannot hold on to $130 oil and be okay.

i know we will get into the euphoric upgrades that seem silly that we are this far into it, but these guys are addressing that in their forecast and that to me is an amazing thing. i don't think equity will hold up. >> especially with calls like barclay's said oil could reach $150 a barrel if tensions continue. that's that is a steep a cent in oil. >> huh every reason to be. given the moves we saw and the underlying commodities. they should embolden you and the market rallied. 8 1/2 handles today. i will say again and the opportunity to sell the high. that is why we will get a blow

off top when everybody throws up their hand and play from a short side anymore. for the life of me i will stay right here for an extended period of time. they will get what they want. the bears should be hoping for 1400 or so. >> let's get to the two super bullish reports calling for the s and p to hit 1700. raising it on the s&p to 1475 citing data and reduce sector stress. we go on by one. they are not conventional and better economic data. car sales start the year strongly and the oil and guess will lift the economy and if we go back to our oil conversation, historically they mean a bustling economy. they have been a close correlation.

>> the energy is creating jobs right now. when you look at the calls and i agree with tim, they are a little bit of a stretch or out there. i think you are certainly going to need the reallocation out of treasuries. a 10-year out of 2% and you want to see it get above 2 and 1/4. the thing that matters to the market place is goldman sacks that 10% below the market right now and i know off of the manufacturing numbers and construction spending we got today, they took down first quarter gdp below 2%. that would be an interesting call. i think real quick they said it last night and i think what we learned about commodities yesterday is who has fundamental challenges and oil has that and precious metals and short gold and i'm still short futures. that's the right trade. >> the idea that the sector is going to create this booming

economy, i find it experience. there will be jobs created, but if you have that much demand for oil, the world in the economy cannot with stand sustained levels. it can't happen. it strikes me as the self-fulfilling type of analysis that comes when you get near the tops. >> what's not in there with the bullet points we saw on the screen is the fact that spain sold $16.7 billion in bonds and 2.19 in the two-year note. pain is looking a lot like the treasury market. that is driving markets higher. liquidity boost and europe under control. no one is saying they will go 2% to 3% gdp and the fact that you have taken this off the pond is to me what everybody has at the root and should have at the root. this is what we digested for the last six months. when the macro and the u.s. was very good.

>> i still think for me long-term gold specifically, silver is headed significantly higher. no reason to believe the commentary yesterday out of the fed does not give me any confidence to be sure in a major way. i still think the trend is still intact and the fact that especially silver bounced back the way it did. . >> the one thing you should watch to have the access is if they continue to rally, that is a sign they are on. they will be a sign that gold is going higher and they have broken through key levels. >> which specifically? >> the reality is something that everybody plays. they feel most comfortable and watch the mexican peso. these also at least in the case of south africa are obviously the commodities. in the case of brazil, they have

tax issues that might affect the currency a bit. >> in terms of the gold trade -- >> to me, the place where we have seen the extra fluff on the carry trade is a lot of the banks that have so much leverage and they were buying the currencies and the reason why they got thrown out the window in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the worst class. that's the reason why you are seeing it outperformed. >> i would be very kushs of gold and silver. i came in long and kicked gold out. if you look around the world, yes he said that he will be there, but the bar has been raised. in the afternoon you have the bank of england saying the case for qe and england may not be there anymore. china has been reluctant to be hyper stillilative. when you look at the 02 that

just finished yesterday, you are talking about that might be it for a while. the story has broken town and i would be cautious. >> the last thing on gold and silver going lower in the environment is actually good for equities. that's what we want to happen. >> you top the see the reallocation of capital from gold. >> get out of the trades. >> let's find out if the bullish arguments we laid out, the chief technical analyst joins us here on set and it's always great to see you. we will kick it off and tech has been a leader. microsoft today hitting a high. what do you see there? >> the bottom line is i think a rally was ignited two days after thanksgiving on november 25th and 28th. during that time, the nasdaq had a gap it did not trade between the levels and it's up 450

pounds amazingly and it looks like my mentor said many years ago with ef hutton, it looks like we may have more unfinished business. you can see two lines extending from the early 2001 closing peaks. you will see that they basically stop the 07 and the 2011 rallies dead in their tracks. we are above that 2900 area. so despite the fact that we have traveled a long way. i think the market's tires still have tread on them. we wouldn't be bullish going into a tenth consecutive week. >> how much unfinished business is there to go? >> i would say that there is enough unfinished business that potentially it will continue to surprise people if i can put it like that. if i take a look at the chart and this is a chart we featured previously. it's supposed to just come a little above there, but it's a

nice job none the less. it's the 1425 area at the intersection of these two lines. one going back to 2002, 2003 and the other extending from the may 2008 weekly closing peak. it's the next target. in the bull markets as you know, resistance is a way station to higher prices just like in bear market support. it's a way station to lower prices. >> of the three indeces, the s&p and the nasdaq and the russell 2000, but if you follow those three, which has the most upside? >> i follow 2000. the russell 2000 we featured a big break out above the area collapse from several years ago. 755, 760. right now i'm using investment support on a weekly closing basis.

if i had -- before i answer that, we were able to raise support on the s approximate p. nice job making it to the 1340 area. you will notice that all of these daily closes are above 1340. low and behold when we got above the area, you will notice the two tests of that area. despite the fact that the s&p has gone from 1100 to where it closed today supports within 3% of where we close. i will tell you i like the russell, but i think it may need a bit of a rest. i like what the s&p has done and i don't like to put a lid on how high it can go, but i like to have a floor so a cut doesn't become a hemorrhage or financial amputation. >> i agree with the support. that's the most important thing. >> how do you get to a place where they can call it a bull

market? is this -- we were discussing today key factors that took us higher, but how do you call this a bull market to draw the trend line that goes off into infinity? parra a>> to me, the utility av all three are -- dow and s&p ripped out of the april 29th 2011 closes. some have not done that. the utilities have been early. they have been early before. number two is if you take a look and have so many stocks with upside gaps. november 25th and 28th and people are recovering from the turkey and turkey leftovers and had something else right between hanukkah and christmas. you had positive outside weeks and a lot of averages.

you had higher highs and lower lows. guess what. low volume, holiday period and i think this market has caught people and i think it's going to have to take the bears for a higher ride. if we close below, we will take a step back. we won't take another step unless we are near 1300 and go with the pulls even with higher oil and all these other problems in europe. >> thank you. good to physically see the step back and another literally. that really drives the way home. >> i thought they would drive into times square. >> i interviewed for the training program and i didn't get the job. >> you didn't? they rejected you? >> see what happens? you ever spin your tires when you were a kid? >> i did. >> did you put chlorox on your tires for the white smoke? >> you get track. they do that on the drag strips.

>> how would you know that? >> the tires and fast moan. >> we are heading to break. one analyst said not so fast when it comes to throwing the stocks in your shopping bag. find out why after this. #

> we are live in times square. bank stocks on easing fears that they may generate capital revenues in the first quarter. bku had been active. >> i bought xlf and in the capital market space, it's a symbiotic relationship. if we get a higher stock market then the capital markets will do better. if the vocal role has been priced in. if you get rethere, that should be positive for banks. they get their capital somewhere

around 2%. it doesn't take much to drive the earnings power. in both the capital markets and regional banks, they will do well. >> they outperformed a lot of the peers. there was thought that they will be delayed even more and paired back based on what bernanke said. they take a long time to implement. >> there is credibility to that. it will be delayed and think that when you look at the improvement, goldman sacks is a buy on the dip story. it's a name that i am long. jamie diamond talked about the investment banking side and talked about the trading side. they believe this is the trough. when you look at a lot of the mf global that got out at the worst

possible pricing time. such significant improvement in that book. >> in the options desk, what were you seeing today in this space. . >> with respect to financials, i think most of the bullish activities were more consumer focused. there were bullish focus. not so much the investment and continue with speculation. bank of america of course remains the most active. we were seeing bullish closing in there. >> american express, bullish. >> he was shorting american express yesterday. >> really? you might have a loser on their hands. >> spring came early for the

major retailers and most posted strong february sales. the next guests say you can expect more of the same. let's find out who the big winners were. the senior research analyst joins us on the fast line. great to speak with you. >> thanks for having me on. >> the knock on having the same-store sales. # >> the spending is increasing and that bodes well for retail. >> focusing in on the gap. much, much better than expected. the same-store sales and if you take a look, old navy and banana republic are troubled in the

past month. what do you attribute this to? are you getting it right or are they able to capture the sales being lost like with jcpenney? >> i don't think it's the point where they are capturing the share from other retailers. there is growing support for the consumer category. it's also had challenging sales results for many years. they had a blip of recovery in early 2010 and it's challenging. they have easier comparisons. the product is getting better. the color theme is very important. it sounds simplistic and basic, but getting color into the assortments is a driving conversion. they have strong color. >> happy spring. >> anyway, jeff is on the line.

>> jcpenney since ron johnson's announcement, that stock has been on fire. it is a tremendous opportunity to buy jp on the fullback. >> they put together an outstanding management team and they are revolutionizing the supply chain and innovating that concept itself. it's great for the industry. they have a great energy. >> is that directly the cost of jcpenney? >> i think there is something to be said for the moderate channel where jc penny and kohl's live. the bloomingdales and this moderate channel is a lot to do with the indicators they are getting and the price points they are getting.

>> great to speak with you. jeff kline felter of piper jaffray. >> they got the chartreuse sweater. >> he lived in that. >> when are i go to jcpenney, they look for a tan plain pocket jean and that's what i'm doing. what's interesting is that consumer name didn't get hit on the oil move here. $6 a gallon and we are getting gauged in the home state of new jersey. this will have a major effect. sales were pulled forward and you can only buy so many 30s. >> i'm not wearing it. skinny jeans.

>> looking for opportunities going global with tim. more fast money straight ahead.

20 pages. boom! the other office devices? they don't get me. they're all like, "hey, brother, doesn't it bother you that no one notices you?" and i'm like, "doesn't it bother you you're not reliable?" and they say, "shut up!" and i'm like, "you shut up." in business, it's all about reliability. 'cause these guys aren't just hitting "print." they're hitting "dream." so that's what i do. i print dreams, baby. [whispering] big dreams.

time to go outside the u.s. and find the ambassador. got back from a trip to turkey. . >> i loved this. turkey time. forgetting the fact that turkey i think is one of the most important geopolitical posts between europe and the mideast. it is one of the places that we call them allies can feel comfortable and is affected by the european contagion.

the story in turkey is alive and well. the name i like to play to get the turkey exposure, but particularly in turkey, fiat. they are a local subsidiary that you can play in the local market or get a piece of if you buy them is an unbelievable growth story that will be serving the mideast. the other companies i was seeing including life experience and property insurance and areas in the e americaning markets world is exciting to get exposure to. if you want to play that over here, they are heavy banking weighted. you are going to get them back and get the credit. that's one of the few. this is a fantastic story that i think you need to watch long-term.

>> what it does is it's slicing off the bottom and there is a number of fantastic dividend plays. if you can buy local markets and you are getting 8 to 12% names, and glass manufacturers and auto and appliances and then the banks are giving you 3% to 4%. take a look at the valuations and you will see this market suffer under the weight of higher oil. . >> you had to do that again. >> it's so good. . >> what's that turkey doing behind me? almost uncomfortable. >> it's a family show, tim. >> stop. >> the turkey's got taste. >> what's the ticker symbol for butterball?

>> i have to follow the whole tim turkey thing. i did look and today i brought brazil. that's the utf and part of the reason is you have gdp growth. you have a central bank that is stillilative and saw today to give the rise and talking about perhaps cutting rates. i think in terms of brazil and equity exposure, the best place to be here is to get oil exposure. >> what do you think of that? >> brazil is a great place and the banks suffer a little bit because they are cutting rates and they hurt so much. i totally agree, brazil and russia are the two obvious plays.

>> they are more nervous than the global and macro allocated. russia is into the elections and you can't oversimplify it, as a guy that lived in russia and is cautious, but the west overstates the risks and it might be the opposite with the extremely long. there is not going to be. >> i'm surprised to hear that some turkish companies pay 8 to 12% dividend. >> it's an interesting part of it. again -- >> i actually believed she really wanted to talk more about turkey. >> i was surprised. >> it's very important. >> a feather in your cap. >> they sustained low and how can you trade the low volatility? the director, should we believe

the low volatility or look to see that it is higher further out? >> no, it is higher further out on the flip side. they are actually blowing up as credit suisse. the real bargains are in the call. if you want to play, replacing long positions with dirt cheap call positions is the way to get along in the market. i want to focus on the market too. this market has shown resilience. it had a good reason to break with the fed. i think the end was the reason for the market to go. you have call exposure for the up. >> they are looking different? >> i am. the april 140. you buy the 1.60 and lay out 115 to make a total of $4. that's a profit of $2.85 for 51

days and it seems cheap. >> great to talk to you. >> next on fast, can china avoid a hard landing. head of global markets in china. plus, will the bold move to create a presence outside of facebook backfire? we will break it down. more fast money straight ahead. [ mujahid ] there was a little bit of trepidation, not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be, you know, because you been, you know, this is what you had been doing. you know, working, working, working, working, working, working. and now you're talking about, well you know, i won't be, and i get the chance to spend more time with my wife and my kids. it's my world. that's my world. ♪

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>> welcome back to fast. you are live here at times square. china has been a hot topic of conversation and investors are wondering if growth can remain strong. joining us to talk about that and the impact on the various industries. the managing director and chairman of china as part of the portfolio series. >> thank you very much. >> you say that the concerns about hard landing in china have subsided and do we need to see the earnings picture for that to happen and believe that the economy is strong. . >> the economy is decelerating. we think in the second half of

2012 it pays for a recovery. in the last several weeks, they learned that many investors are no longer concerned about the colony, they believe they got the policy that helps simulate her growth. they are more concerned about the corporate earnings and we will see sharper deceleration. >> it's tim seymore. the last time we met you called rrr easing that china has a lot of tools to get their economy going and almost 40% has been locked up. how aggressive are they going to be on that front? >> they are adopting a nuance policy approach. they won't unleash a lot of that. they learned a lesson from 2009 when too much money flooded into the economy and we have

inflationary problems. the central government will take small steps to simulate the economy. they will release more money from the rrr cuts and under take tax reform and in the meantime they will help the enterprises get better funding. overall the economy will be in reasonable shape. they are much more concerned about the corporate sector. >> brian kelly, you are curious about the deceleration in earnings among the materials and banking sector. how does that filter into a hard landing that won or a soft landing and most importantly, what do you define as a hard or soft landing? 5% gdp growth? >> anything below 5% or 6% could be a hard landing for the macro economy. we have to keep in mind the relationship between macro growth and corporate earnings is not that strong.

on the macro front, it has been a great one for the past 30 years. they have been 10%. if you look at the micro, the corporate sector, some companies didn't deliver good profits despite the macro strength. they have a strong economy. what this means is that companies need to get more efficient. they have overcapacity with the steals and that's going to affect corporate earnings in 2012. >> you are talking about them and it's still sector facing head winds. how does that go for the u.s.-based steal companies. this is the dynamics. >> the steal industry in china is losing money. the costs are strong. the industry is slowing. they are not in good health. the u.s. companies have a better

production discipline and capacity in the u.s. in a way, you look at the differences between the two sectors, the u.s. companies can stay resilient despite a downturn while the companies are going to suffer from the overcapacity which they built over the last years. >> i just want to talk about rising oil prices and the concern that we have here for u.s. consumers. as oil prices rise, how resilient were the chinese consumers in terms of growth at these prices? >> the chinese economy is much less sensitive to oil price movements compared to the u.s. people drive shorter distances. we have a lot of vehicles on the roads these days. they control the prices. unlike the u.s. when oil prices are there, it is translated into the higher prices at the pump. oil prices are clearly a risk

for the global economy, however in china the risk is less compared to the u.s. because there is a bit of a cushion because the central government regulates prices for petroleum products. >> thank you so much for your time. >> thank you very much for having me. >> let's take these longer trends and put them into a trade framework in terms of earnings deceleratio decelerations, does that mean for the banks and the retailers that there good investments or are there? >> i think we didn't talk about copper demands. >> i don't care and this is fantastic. we announce and you can place the copper names and i agree that the steel sector for iron ore remains depressed. >> if you want to get the

exposure to china and the companies there, you can look at the efx and you get the asia exposure. it doesn't trade a lot, but that's the place to play it. you have the chinese government who has encouraged many of the banks and investments. there is at the very least support there. >> let's move on. zen zeng zinga will release the base of zinga.com. what does it mean in terms of the facebook relationship? joining us is rich greenfield of research at btig. could this be a game changer for zika? >> this is a meaningful opportunity for zinga. when you go to facebook, there is a lot of social games you can play. electronic arts and they have social games.

there is a lot of angry birds on facebook. they are trying to create the ecosystem. a world that is all of their games so that they can make thothem around and things that facebook focuses on, zynga wants to make it the perfect environment for chatting and talking to friends and et cetera around the games and to keep all of these games within the world to allow in other games. unlike on facebook, they don't get other people's games. if you want to be on the platform, you will have to work on how to play with zynga.

it broke down and we liked it before it went public. this is a fascinating ipo. the upside here and the potential over the course of the next 12 months is that we are still at a small company given the size of the opportunity. game play is something that is spreading globally. the countries and the players in 175 countries are starting to build a platform into it to make it bigger financial opportunities. it's not just them and we value this on their games. what's interesting today and where it gets interesting in terms of valuation over 12 to 18 months, they will start profiting on other people's games. that affects nobody from an analyst buyer. it's brand-new today. that's a place where we learn more about how the economics work and how many to tar 'tis pate. >> bottom loin in terms of the

impact on facebook, is it positive or negative? >> i'm sure you will see a lot of the popular press try to focus on this as zynga trying to hurt or distance itself from facebook because they are overreliant. that is the reason why everyone got negative and they are too tied to facebook. they are trying to distance themselves. i disagree. i think that at the end of the day, facebook doesn't care whether you come to facebook.com. they want you connecting by facebook and being more social. a more social world is great for facebook. you interact more and experience more ads and see more sponsorship and best for zynga and facebook's relationship, you will spend more virtual currency and you have to use facebook credit. >> from etig. >> the more social world. >> with the ads. >> quickly the stock creates the

top five shareholders like fidelity and make up 57% of the stock which we found which was fantastic. i don't think they will be throwing this thing around. they got the trade on stocks with high short interest. if you want to make a move on jcpenney, you may want to consider the options that they got back. ♪ ? ♪ here we are, me and you ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way

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what's in your wallet? my dad and grandfather spent their whole careers here. [ charlie ] we're the heartbeat of this place, the people on the line. we take pride in what we do. when that refrigerator ships out the door, it's us that work out here. [ michael ] we're on the forefront of revitalizing manufacturing. we're proving that it can be done here, and it can be done well. [ ilona ] i came to ge after the plant i was working at closed after 33 years. ge's giving me the chance to start back over. [ cindy ] there's construction workers everywhere. so what does that mean? it means work. it means work for more people. [ brian ] there's a bright future here, and there's a chance to get on the ground floor of something big, something that will bring us back. not only this company, but this country.

♪ jcpenney one of the retailers that didn't farewell and everybody else is ripping and roaring. you are trying to figure out what you did here. you can collect over 5% and sell them for 210. it will capture earnings if you want to hang on and insulates most of the game that they have between the current price. this is one way to stay in the stock and still get a bit of

upside. >> thanks for that and catch more options action tomorrow at 5:00 and follow the show on twitter to get constant trade updates. what disney's new cruise ship means. are you still sleeping? just wanted to check and make sure that we were on schedule.

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welcome back to fast money. live in times square, disney is adding another ship to its fleet. the disney fantasy. we talked to ceo bob eyeinger. what's the latest? >> over my right is the disney fantasy capable of carrying 4,000 passengers. more than double the capacity of disney's cruise line. with the disney dream contributing to the bottom line, they told cnbc the fantasy won't be far behind. >> it will happen quickly. they have some start up costs.

that perceived revenue, but the popularity of the first ship and start impacting that quickly. >> but they said the fantasy's positive impact should be felt about ten months from now. the initial drop at the cruise center after the costa concordia crash recovered nicely with the bookings and around 74%. as for the impact, the prices may have on the bottom line, he said it's too soon to tell and higher gas prices are not hurting bookings at the theme parks ahead of spring break. >> we have not seen an impact on bookings. actually over the long period of time we have been in this position and been through periods where prices have increased or spiked, they have not been a direct correlation between booking patterns and visitation and fuel prices. >> now as for the broadcast

business, he wouldn't say much about the up front other than to say they are well-positioned and commented on part of the $250 million action adventure and expected to open on march 9th and a lot of negative buzz. we are going wait for the audience to decide. >> mary thompson, thanks for that report. the disney fantasy. >> we all have one. what's yours? >> that i don't have to go. >> glamorous in that shot. >> very glam. >> over her left and right shoulder. turn around. >> it's true. you can go either way. a versatile shot and very positive commentary. >> what about the cruises? now they were talking about it and support by disney on the earnings. >> yes. >> on the show every night. >> already. we'll be right back.

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>> she must be bullish. use the calls. >> auto sales today. gm. >> nrg. >> nrg is the symbol. >> global growth. >> wynn has more