i'll support the candidate, but if i had to make a prediction today, i do hope that we can get the senate and hold the house, and go from there and we can get the president, if he is re-elected, to come back more to the center as we did with president clinton and therefore get some things done. >> thank you. >> thank you, larry. >> larry, thanks. make sure you join andrew and becky and scott wapner on monday. "squawk on the street" is next. five, six, seven, eight. ♪ >> good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm melissa lee with jim cramer and james faber live from the new york stock exchange. >> our second home in the second city. chicago this morning, about eight months before election day, we have come to president obama's stomping grounds in the land of lincoln covering all the bases, commodities, treasuries, big business, big politics and

how it impacts your money. it is wall street meets the windy city on "squawk on the street" on this friday, march 2nd, 2012. >> carl, we're about to wrap up what has been an eventful week for the markets between dow 13,000, nasdaq 3,000. we got red arrows across the board now. the dow is looking to lose about 12 points at the open. and european trading, we're seeing basically a flat picture across the board. let's get to a road map for this friday morning. crude is in focus after a whipsaw afternoon trade yesterday. iran pressed tv reporting an explosion at a pipeline. still, traders say the whipsaw trade shows the fear is still in the crude trade. we are awaiting what will likely be the last internet ipo before facebook. yelp prices well above the expected range. the company is getting set to ring the opening bell here at the big board and the ceos first stop after that will be post nine for a first on cnbc

interview. at&t says no more to unlimited. they'll start slowing speeds down. will this help profitability or outrage consumers? maybe both. and the treasury secretary accuses wall street of having financial amnesia when it comes to the crisis. in today's "wall street journal," he takes to task lobbyists and banks who go against dodds franks. carl at the cme with more on what is on tap for this big show today, carl. >> as i like to say, if santelli won't come to the mountain, the mountain will come to santelli. we'll try to have some fun today on this friday, not a lot of data per se, but the rumor mill becomes all the more important as we saw with oil yesterday and the report of that saudi explosion turned out to be denied, of course. we'll get santelli and the guys together, talk about not only commodities, not only what geithner is saying in the op ed pages but the euro.

a bit of softness. i'm sure you guys already know some of the disputes in spain. spain now saying their fiscal targets are not what the eurozone thought they agreed to. some of the yields in spain creeping higher after 11 straight days down. so can the euro hold $1.31? we'll talk to santelli and the guys about that. you'll love this. also on the show, austan goolsbee, formerly of the obama campaign, can reference the geithner op-ed. and tom rickets, owner of the chicago cubs, as we get pitchers and catchers practicing down in florida, maybe you can shed light on what the season will look like and maybe ask him a question about how your phillies may do. you don't have a problem with pitching, of course. >> carl, let's just ask, maybe this is their year. >> yeah. that's been said a few times. >> this is it. >> i'll shy away from that question actually. >> maybe don't hit them with that. maybe talk about left-handed pitching or something. >> kind of evil.

>> a losing franchise. i worked for a losing franchise. he should take a little order of some of the way the phillies did it. >> you can ask -- >> haven't had a game yet, my friend. >> i'm coming after the cubby guy. it is just -- >> do you still want him to come on? are you mad -- >> canceling. >> he's in the land of lincoln. i always like lincoln. didn't he say with malice toward all and charity toward none. >> that was lincoln? >> it was reverse. i'll get it straight. >> let's talk oil. prices are pulling back after we mentioned saudi arabia denying a media report of a saudi pipeline exploding. president obama telling atlantic monthly that a premature attack on iran would allow that country to portray itself as a victim. mr. obama saying israel knows as president of the united states, i don't bluff. certainly it was interesting when you take a look at the trading yesterday, jim, the

rumor or the report initially came out as soon as the regular session closed, when electronic trading resumed and that -- the volumes are thinner in electronic trading, oil prices pushed around and the equity markets didn't react too much. >> interesting, the transports didn't even blink. the transports to me are the most sensitive to the oil trade. i didn't like what happened yesterday. i felt someone knew something. i felt someone planted something. i thought it was real chicanery. if i was the s.e.c., i would be investigating every aspect of the story. >> do you think a hedge fund -- it was iran pressed tv that reported it. that would be a difficult investigation for the s.e.c. -- >> someone had it early. someone had it early. i would like to know how these things happen. >> gadhafi used to play the oil market all the time. >> sure. when i see a rumor, this is what i want the government to do. i don't know how some pan out and some others, but i know people at home want to say, i don't like what happened, i like the government to make ten phone calls, come back and say, look, it was an innocent mistake, or that this was a fix. i think the people at home are

so used to getting their heads handed to them by the fix of fast money trading and we ought to just get a clean grasp, government says i checked it out, it is legit. that's all i want. >> it does go back to the overall issue of how important what is going on in the middle east is to the economy worldwide and how focused people are on that region, both the unrest in syria, what is going to happen with iran and of course iran and saudi arabia are at loggerheads, they're enemies, if you will, and that's going to continue. and yet we haven't seen any impact on our economy. we have talked about it. we got retail sales yesterday. they were very strong. >> yeah. >> higher gas prices don't seem to be impacting the consumer, perhaps for any number of reasons, home heating bill has gone down. >> 63% of homes heated by that gas. one thing that is very daunting, i start the day with the new york times because i had done it for the last 50 years. >> you don't have to apologize. >> pick up the paper or the

ipad? i'm just curious. >> i'm still hard copy. i know it is a disgrace. but they have a -- >> not a disgrace to read it or read it in a newspaper. >> thank you. the editor in chief does a terrific job. the paper has an article every day about a leading israeli official which is basically saying it is going to happen. and i don't think that -- president obama is much more of a hawkish president than people seem to realize on wall street. it is not like it is all idle chatter. and this meeting is not an idle chatter. >> listen, to the new york times, we'll see. whether we can believe it, whether it is posturing, there are others who say and this is reporting, this is all secondhand, most of it from what i got, but how difficult it will be, whether they actually have the munitions to be capable of destroying these bunkers. >> all rational issues at the same time that the trade up to $1.28 plus on brent yesterday showed the willingness of the market to believe it could

happen. for us, that's all that matters. >> there i was great piece this morning, a lot of great op-eds this morning, the tim geithner, underneath it is one overlooked by robert mcfarland, a security adviser under reagan, talking about the need to do natural gas. keep coming back to this theme that we could become more energy dependent and safer but natural gas say bridge fuel that is suspect by a lot of people, howard hamm was lukewarm on that, he is a regular crude man. can't forget that. >> we got to talk about yelp here, pricing its ipo, 15 bucks a share, well above the expected range of 12 to 14. and values the company at just about $900 million. this morning the business review website will begin trading here at the nyse under the ticker symbol yelp. the company's co-founder and ceo jeremy stoveleman will join us here at post nine for a very interesting interview. this is one of these internet ipos, you know we have been

talking about these for a long time, they're operating 12% of their flow, so they're engineering a big first day pop. we see it with the pricing well above the range. >> you're right. we talked a lot about this. small flow goes out there, it can have the impact of creating a decent pop on the secondary trade. but we'll see. >> you get these -- these companies, the street.com, still public, but in another year, you get companies that have -- look, i wrote a book about it, talking about having very little revenues, no profits and how people go crazy for it. this is one of those. this is a much more substantial company of course than a lot of the others. google is willing to pay $500 million at one point for this. >> that was two years ago. and yahoo allegedly bid a billion. >> right. but at the end of the day, groupon, $12 million right now, zengia, $10.5 million, linkedin,

8.4, this is smaller in terms of overall market value. the float may be similar but we're talking about a dollar value that is smaller. we'll see. >> do you use it? anybody use it? >> i don't use it. i looked around it just for purposes of research of this interview but i don't use it as all. >> i find, my daughters use it. i find that, look, i'm an older person now and the demographic of things and i use -- i use trip adviser for hotels. and trip adviser, very, very important, but i would tell you yepl le yelp, if you go to a neighborhood and you don't know anything, we go to the food critic. >> the website is right in the main part of town, in new jersey, 17 rooms, a neat place.

my friend michael haley is the ceo. he serves breakfast, makes a mean poached egg. we look at trip adviser every single day, every single day, that's how important these businesses are to people who have companies. >> yelp, in terms of reviews, most of them are positive. so what do you do with that information if almost everything that is reviewed is positive. >> someone gave a negative view to us, to -- >> you you have have to wonder validity of the review yous. >> she skipped out on her bill. you have to take that down, the woman didn't pay. you can hurt a franchise. so -- >> there is a lot of competing services like a trip -- like other review sites out there, four square for one, google, facebook, all of these -- >> it is very important to get the three diamonds. all these things do matter. >> there is a lot of competitors out there right now. how does this company turn to

profitability in the midst of tremendous competition? >> what happens if google shuts them down? supposedly 75% of their traffic is from google. >> already started doing that in fact. >> they'll be prepared to answer all those questions. >> i remember nina zagat, very smart woman, terrific company, when google bought them, i thought there would be some sort of modernization. let's find out. >> want to move on as well to the world of broadband or wireless data. at&t ending unlimited data plans, company telling subscribers they will see much slower speeds if they exceed a new monthly usage cap. at&t trying to increase revenue by pushing expensive data plans and sophisticated devices like the iphone 4s as it deals with a user base no longer growing as quickly. this is about spectrum, the focus for a long time, randall stevenson has been complaining about data hogs, guys watching movies, streaming their favorite television show on their iphone or whatever it may be, even

though percentagewise they can for a very small amount of the subscriber base, they account for a very large amount of the speck frtrum being used. it is a huge issue. grandfathered the people of the unli unlimited data plans no longer. they'll slow down the speed. they haven't been able to get people to move up to the higher level plans to a certain extent. we talked about this. as much as might have been anticipated in the new world that we're starting, that is starting to evolve, what we call 4g, lte, it is that fourth generation wireless services that will let you use the next ipad and you and i have a video chat real time if we want to. you got to pay a lot of money for that. >> when i binge view on netflix and watch 16 straight hours of tv to watch -- >> but you're watching it on wi-fi at home, right? >> i can't, to me, i watch on my big screen, i see people doing it -- what are they -- that's a generational thing. >> it may be a generational

thing. and this is a company that is desperate for more spectrum. they can't have so much of it being used up by so few people. and not profitably for them. we know why they wanted to buy t-mobile, the deal failed. sprint's deal to acquire mitchell pcs, we told you it just died at the last moment was about spectrum. it is all about spectrum here and you got to get it in some way if you can't buy more. >> who is in a position? verizon -- don't they have more spectrum. verizon wireless. >> a little more capacity. but everybody is somewhat capacity constrained. >> people are fed up about their bills. >> interesting thing that came out of the mobile world, barcelona, spain, there carriers are introducing phones that would compete with the content providers. it would only limit you to going through google on your -- on the phone that is bought. but that's a different model because this is a problem for all of these carriers. they can't make money.

>> so many people, they had to tilt their antennas upward in new york city, not down in the street, because so many people are streaming on their phones in the office. >> really? >> in the office? what you doing in the office? work. why don't you work? >> shouldn't be paying these people so much. >> coming up, jeremy stoppleman on his firm's wall street debut. first, carl in chicago. >> melissa, we're still here at the cme. some pits in the process of firing up, hogs and cattle starts in a little less than an hour. 9:05 local time. not a lot of data today, but with rick santelli after a break, we'll look ahead to next week's data including the jobs number that we're not getting today. we'll explain why when "squawk on the street" comes right back.

i was born in the city called the windy city. >> i like windy city better than second city, just for me as a former resident of this great town. welcome back to "squawk on the street," a special edition from the windy city, from chicago, here with rick santelli at the place that you normally call home, but which we wanted to visit just to bring -- just to take in some of the energy that happens here every day. i don't know how you do it. not a lot of data happening

today but fire off the op-ed pieces of "the wall street journal". >> tim geithner saw a lot in his days. and i think the op-ed wanted to put forth revisionist thinking or how we forget. but i didn't forget. i didn't forget what was at the epicenter of the entire crisis, prolific derivatives, he mentioned that, what he didn't mention is that what we needed was an audit trail of derivatives over the counter. we have that as they go through regulated exchanges. i think a lot of the other issues, i'm not revising on. 2300 pages, dodd-frank, the people that write most of those bills are regulate chetors whic don't get to elect. if you look at glass stegele, the footnotes for dodd-frank are longer than glass-stegele. he says we're against reform.

no, we're against overload of reform that probably wouldn't prevent the last crisis. >> he says the solutions are no more complex than the problems. and he says that as these things are written, there will be a chance to hammer -- to even them out. >> how does he know they're not written? this is the problem. it is even a problem with health care. geez. we get these little dribbles like this contraceptive thing, listen, i'm no expert on medicine, but it certainly seems that there is unique features to that written in by the people filling in the blanks, not the legislators. let's not forget to talk about the tax when you sell your house that will kick in, the extra close to 4% income tax that will kick in. that is the problem. you can't say it is good or it's bad when a boat load of it like the volcker rule isn't even done yet. how can you say that? >> we're not going to get -- not getting the jobs number today due to a quirk in the calendar, right? >> yes. but i do think the jobs number, glad you referencing it, this is going to be a biggie, a biggie

for shrinkage. every time i talk about it, people like to debate the issue, but the reality in my world is this isn't political. if we have less people working today than we had over the last three or five or whatever years, that's what i look at because i like to look at numbers. >> finally, spain, says the fiscal target we're using isn't the one we thought we all agreed on. the one big reason yield over there, creeping higher once again for the first time in a while, right? >> you know, carl, you have kids now. >> yes. >> spain, italy, all of it, greece, you're going to see their behavior mirrors the behavior of some of these countries. if you give them things to try to create a solution for things they cause, in the end, they're going to keep wanting more and more and more! >> as long as spain and greece don't draw on the wall with crayon, i think i'm okay. >> i don't know if i would put that beyond the possibility. >> rick, we'll be here all morning long, guys. back to you at post nine. >> hey, carl. sorry, we were taking a look right over my shoulder.

the ceo of the new york stock exchange is talking with jeremy stoppelman, the founder and ceo of yelp who will stop by post nine after the bell ringing here. we're observing the festivities ahead of the big debut for yelp. got to head to break. cramer is ahead of the curve and still running. his mad dash is coming up next. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.

there is the jeremy

stoppelman getting ready to ring the opening bell. we'll talk to him after the festivities. we're about 5 1/2 minutes until the bell rings. great sales numbers from the automakers yesterday. >> when you talk about an economy and what drives an economy, it is auto sales. earlier this year we had thought that maybe we could do 13, $14 million. already we're -- the pace yesterday, we're talking about doing 15.1. this is why the industrial economy is doing well. guess who is leading the charge? it is chrysler. we talk about whether clint eastwood was making a political statement, he was making a money statement. that ad worked. chrysler is dominating in terms of the increase in share. you really got to appreciate what they're doing. this is a hot one. >> what is the story here? >> this is a -- this is the old dress barn. justice -- >> the old dress barn is a -- >> dress barn, and believe it or not, this had the single best cop number versus expectations

of any retailer last -- any retailer that i follow and this stock is not done going up. >> what do you do with it? >> still buy it. i'll tell you why. jaffe, the ceo, has turned around this company and it would be valued at around here if it were just to be versus the rest of them, the targets, the ross stores and ross is good. >> foot locker. it looked like better than expected results. there was an expectation for even higher same store sales on foot locker. the stock is down in the free market. >> look, got to hear the call going on. >> down in the after hours. >> i got to tell you, you want to play this stock, you play it with this and this, okay? under armour and nike are on fire. do you see nike yesterday? it is at all time highs, under armour too. that's technology stock. under armour is a technologying to. >> we have to take a break. get ready for another big day of trading here on "squawk on the street."

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♪ waiting is the hardest part every day you see one more card ♪ ♪ you take it on faith there it is, the opening bell. we're here at the new york stock exchange and, of course, ringing that opening bell, yelp, online business review site, celebrating its ipo today. we'll talk with the ceo, jeremy stoppelman. at the nasdaq, the academy of nutrition and dietics. wow. they're very excited. they're yelping. i think it is a verb too. >> someone said is that some sort of -- a kennel service. no, bozos. this is a very powerful concept. whether the concept makes money is yet to be seen. but the concept is well recognized that the crowd knows something more than you do. if you want to find out a good doctor, yelp is a way, good plumb plumber, yelp is the way. is that something you and i might do. i look at everything to try to

figure out where to go what to do. >> yes, you do. >> it is a concept that has 66 million people going to it. you figure over time, someone will monetize. >> right, right. >> do you think that's wrong? i have to -- i have to curtail my enthusiasm when i'm in this room because it is not going to help investors enough. but there is a palpable -- a palpable sense they have got something going here with yelp, not just today in the ipo, but in general. >> earlier you did seem to be somewhat skeptical. >> i do want companies to make money. i hate the era when companies come public and they're losing a lot of money and doing revenues. why? i live through that era. >> we all did, yes. >> and we know how that era ended. we lose our skepticism and not doing our job. if mark haines were here, he would say, cramer, no free pass yelp. what kind of money are they making? >> to be fair, we did allocate a lot of capital to companies that

did well and also companies that are long gone. hundreds and hundreds of them. >> what do we tell people? >> we're not there yet. people want to make comparisons to the '90s. most of the companies that have,public thus far are making money, they are profitable. even on a gap basis. >> that's important. when you look at the companies, this is having been through the shoot, if there say goldman sachs deal this is a goldman deal. i can tell you the ones that first got in turned up -- a lot of them are good companies. i was doing work on interactive, that company is doing quite well. >> company had a little bit of a run, hasn't it? >> it has. a very quiet run. they have gotten -- they have paired things down. expedia is long gone. expedia took trip adviser with it. they split off a number of the other businesses, but ise had a good run. >> had a good run. priceline, a lot of people use it. one thing i find with yelp, again, there is a lot of generational stuff going on

here, david. when you see 15 and you say to yourself, i don't know, i'm busy working, how do i have time to play games and you talk to your daughter and you you try to figure out how much time does she allocate to games. i would say these are revolutionary and renaissance times for technology. and if you're too old at home and trying to figure it out, i urge you as i did on twitter, go to yelp, go to google, which is how people get to it, input i want to go to a good restaurant, in philadelphia, it is going to send you to yelp, and in yelp you look at the reviews and say, well, how many of these reviews are candid, are they good -- that's,000 wo how it works now america, david. >> that's how it works. let's see how things are working on the floor of the stock exchange. go melissa with bob pisani. >> we're standing where the yelp post is. it is indicated to open 22 to 25, $10 above the pricing. >> 12 to 14 was the price talk.

priced at 15. 22 to 25 is impressive. how much are investors going to give the company? we know what the story is? $83 million in revenues and never made a profit. we know what the story has been from all of these guys, we're concerned with growing the company, with growing revenues. not concerned with making a profit. that sounds familiar. >> there is lots of competition too. it cannot be lost that it is not profitable and there is a lot of competitors with a lot of deep pockets. >> i think that's an issue. for example, what is going to prevent groupon or facebook or google from coming into their space. groupon, for example, had a very good ipo, priced at $20. i this i 16 to 18 the price talk. groupon now, 19, $19.50. that's coming back down to earth. >> yeah. just want to note that there is a huge crowd here and the ceo, jeremy stoppelman, just walked through to put in the first trade here as is custom at the

new york stock exchange. we're waiting mr. stoppelman to stop by post nine later on after all this is said and done for his first interview. >> one beautiful tradition is the ceo traditionally makes the first 100 share trade. in the old days, when they had paper stocks, they handed it over there and they still may do that over there, just as part of the tradition. let's talk about what is going to be happening in the future. this -- the dotcom thing is still not ancient history. mark andreissen of netscape was on the air this morning, talking about apple. he said the dotcom bust is still very much on everybody's minds and nobody wants to get caught suddenly -- a company that has nothing but revenue yous. >> it doesn't look like it given what is going on behind us. >> we'll see how long they give it. group groupon, it is below its offering price. there is an ocean of ipos waiting to come. still not a good market. 200 ipos are out there. a lot of them are tech. what is going to get them going? i can tell you, number one, low

volatility we're get and improving economy, that's important. you have to have a hot sector. the important thing here, somewhat hot secretartor, but t biggest one is crowd computing. look at these up here and you'll show, bizarre voice, bright clove, all of these are cloud computing stocks, all up 30%, 40%, 50% or more. that's it. that's the one sector you can point to that is really hot so far this year. let's hope that that continues. we're going to have a stock -- the nyse head of listings here on at 10:20 with me to talk about the future of ipos, tech ipos, what other stuff is out in the pipeline and what they think is going to be necessary. >> and how much does it take to get an ipo to choose the nyse over the nasdaq. i'm sure a lot of people were courting yelp. >> they were. this was a big coup for the nyse. everybody knows these kind of tech stocks go to nasdaq. not this time. nyse got it. we'll ask them what did they do? that listing and some other big names floating out there, i can think of one immediately.

finally, switching briefly to spain here. did you see what they said to the eu, they said, drop dead. they have deficit targets they agreed to. they said spain -- they said we're not going to make it, we won't get close to them this year and you'll see a lot of european companies that will say, let's be realist, not crush our economies, try to figure out a way to get growth and not worry about the target so much. i thought that was important today. still 22 to 25 here. what do we got? 22. >> 22. looks like it is 22 right now. we're still awaiting that first trade to be made by the ceo who is in the midst of that crowd. we'll be talking to him in a few minutes right after he makes that trade. david, over to you. >> yeah, spanish yields moving up to bob's point, of course. they're looking at 5.8% of gdp. down to the cme group in chicago. carl quintanilla, rick santelli in the middle of all the action of there. >> yelp against a trade. we'll send it back to you. in the meantime, we're here with a fearsome trio in any

discussion of money and economics. rick santelli, eric wolfman, kevin ferry talking about a couple of days after rtlo, the easy money that needs to be put out, a lot of it parked back at the bank. is this troublesome? >> i don't know if it is troublesome or not but it is foreign realize where this liquidity for the ltos is going, where it is parked and how it is not that great of a financial investment. i think kevin could weigh in on this. >> first of all, welcome to the great playground of products here. >> in capitalism. >> capitalism, right. so i think the -- what we were talking about before we went on is too many people are trying to tivo to the front part, which is still farther up the road. and so -- >> in terms of economic growth and health. >> in terms of growth or the next crisis. this is about what is happening in between. it is a lot less exciting. so i think it is okay that the money is parked there for now.

it gives a lot of optionality later on this spring or summer to cut the charge, cut the expense of it. and then back here at home, you're also seeing the capital markets, the interest rate markets start and become a little bit more elastic, a little bit more about what happens in between the crises instead of a constant state of chaos. >> when he says i'm done, does that necessarily mean he's done with rtlos or is there something else he might do. >> i think the rtlos is best way to get the money through the countries. but the problem is, i don't see the greece and spain are going to come through with their austerities. we saw this morning spain saying they're not going to be able to do it, they'll cut off 5% of the gdp versus the 4% the eu was expecting. germany had it hard-lined at the last meeting and now you got spain saying they're not going to do it. how is that going to affect the

mantra in italy? are they going to back off with what their austerity measures are. everybody is saying, hey, we're not doing the austerity. that's going to be a problem. >> no consequences for what spain is doing. >> i have two points. first of all, austerity is a loaded word. why is it a loaded word? it makes it seem like this is a committee decision. these countries are technically insolvent, they need to balance the books, find a pro growth lower spending, lower deficit strategy. austerity sounds like a bad thing. this is a survival. the other issue is, i agree with everything you said, kevin, you're a trader, you're a trader, you need to make money. it is pretty darn scary when i give optionality to a central bank whose one medicine hasn't changed since the cubs won a world series. that is print, print, print, print. does it help? it certainly doesn't hurt. >> we'll talk to rick about the cubs and their chances this year later on this morning. hey, i know equities are largely back in new york.

but 13k, we wrestle with it yet again this week. what is it going to take to plow through that? >> we have a great equity product right here too. and i think you can see that that index trading gives a lot of people exactly what they want to express the ideas and the concepts they want in the marketplace. i don't like to overread it. but i think that you've seen now a market come out since november, october, high stress in a very orderly and aggressive fashion. and even in the past few weeks, we have tried to lean against it. doesn't want to go. the best -- that's the best way to see if it is working or not when it goes down. i think that's part of the idea of stability and, but, you can keep only so many plates stable at once, the other ones start to wobble. that's what we're starting to see in some of these other products. >> finally, two great twitter accounts to follow. wolf man's blog, fearlicious.

thanks a lot. great to be here. melissa, back to you. >> thanks, carl. and we're watching the markets here. red arrows across the board. we're seeing financials at pretty nicely in today's session. morgan stanley up another percent. jpmorgan up almost a percent. they're doing pretty well. >> this makes me think, i got to check my enthusiasm. >> current deals according to thompson reuters, deals in february this is interesting, 9% slide from january. lowest monthly deal volume, not overall volume, you had the deal added to dollar volume, but lowest since november of '03. that's not great when you're talking about the investment banks and the advisory board. when i talked to my guys, they keep talking about a lot of conversations going on, perhaps fewer than they might have anticipated. still ceo concern about the pace of recovery and whether it is for real. >> we know volumes are down. we talked about that all the time. we talk about the regulation and

how regulation is going to trim profits. goldman is trading above -- how much do they throw at this morgan stanley and it does not come down? these are all signs of a bottom. they're not signs of -- they're signs that this group is able to handle this low level activity and if anything good happens, you can see an upside and we tend to not see what the good happens until it happens. >> yep, yep. >> i like the stories, though. they're very inexpensive. historically. not now. >> doesn't mean it will be a great eps here. >> but jpmorgan, we listened to jamie dimond this week, seen some of the action in commercial real estate with the regional banks, all very positive. these stocks are so hated that that itself can be a reason you look at a big group like this, why it underperformed for so long. >> groupon is higher by 1.5%.

zengia, up 8%. they're launching the platform which will allow you to play games without going through facebook. so all this concern about them relying on facebook so much for their revenues, they're trying to provide a strategy that has them going outside of facebook. >> important. one of the big rwraps against te deal that just came out, yelp, the reliance on google. what people have to understand is that it is such an easy trap to fall in. i'm going to do my business on facebook, be alive with facebook. these companies are very worried. internally what they're saying to yelp now, i believe, is, you know, we have to be careful of google. google is the elephant in the room. it is the cash cow for them. you got to understand it. if google decides tomorrow to shut off yelp, it would be banned from google but it could be good for them if they want to put money behind zagat. >> good for zengia, which performed pretty well.

>> yeah. we're also watching shares of apple. they are trading lower today by a fraction of a percent. it is worth noting that mark andreissen was talking about apple on "squawk box" this morning and said it was still cheap. >> all time investor man i respect a great deal, on street signs yesterday with mandy, one thing he said was he asked about the dividend. they have given you such incredible capital appreciation, should be focused on something that might be at 89 cents to shareholders. i come back to say, you don't criticize the guys who have made money for you. i'm not against what apple has done with its $100 billion cash -- >> which is nothing. >> all worked extraordinarily well. they were doing something wrong, you would have an issue. but at the same time, it is really worth sitting there over $100 billion in cash. >> i like to hit the guys that don't know what they're doing rather than the guys that know what they're doing, their core business. >> it looks like yelp opened, hence the cheers.

you see in the lower left of that box on the right-hand side of your screen, jeremy stoppelman, putting in the first 100 share trade. you see bob pisani in the midst of the crowd. there he is. and the crowd cheers and does look like yelp opened 24 and climbing. it is now approaching -- settling in there, but higher by 50 some odd percent. >> maybe this is the conundrum, maybe this is the rittle and the enigma of the brokerage stocks. here is a company that anybody got stock on bet a ton of money. not a lot -- >> you got an allocation. if you're buying it now, you have a -- you to hope and pray, hope and pray that this will go higher. >> how about if you put me in for all of it. >> 10%. >> we'll take down whatever we get and we're out of it, yeah, 9:45. >> money is being made in a lot of sectors in 2012. it is not 2011. >> money is being made.

>> money is being made. >> caution the retail investor who only has access to yelp right now. >> never buy in the after market, never buy in the after market. the times when you've been rewarded, i can count them on one hand in the last year. the times when you've lost money, but witnessed the big run-up in groupon and everyone came in with groupon and they got happy. >> they did. linked in did all right if memory serves. huge move, underpriced but still trading in the 80s. >> home away is not good. it is good to get in. it is perfect. >> over to bob in the crowd over at the yelp post. bob? >> we opened $22.01, price stock was initially $22 to $25. that's a successful ipo. the price talk, $12 to $14, opens a price at $15, now open at $22.01. 1.2 million shares and we see jeremy stoppelman standing right behind us, talking to a number

of his friends. what is beautiful about this, friends and families in, a lot of these people around me here, pull back a little, these are yelp employees that are here, brought in for the day, a big day for them. they have shares as well. they're taking pictures with each other. jeremy is over there. important thing is, stock opened very much to the upside. over to you. >> thank you very much, bob. here we are, yelp is higher by about 63% here. >> 7.1 million shares. you got to -- it is a win, you're right. >> golden ipo. i look at this yelp, it is so quintessentially what people have to be skeptical of because it doesn't have any profits. at the same time, they just -- they raise their visibility like you wouldn't believe. this is one of the greatest advertisements for yelp. people at home are saying i got to go with yelp. this becomes self-fulfilling. it is working again. >> and great theater here. it is funny having not been down here for many years, to watch the theater. as you say, it is a great

marketing opportunity for these companies as well. >> all right. >> a lot of people now you who never heard of yelp who are saying let me check this thing out. >> i would be interested to see what the traffic is like today. want to go back to i believe headquarters. kayla has breaking news on blackstone. >> melissa, i'm actually out in silicon valley this morning. we were watching yelp. we broke that news on twitter last night because we were off the air. the big news this morning, aig exiting a stake in blackstone. this stake predates blackstone's 2007 ipo and goes back to july of 1998. this serves as a capital race for aig as it seeks to pay back the u.s. government from its bailout. but also there are rising tensions between aig and blacksto blackstone, long been an adviser to aig. over the last several months we're understanding there was a giant blocked trade executed before the open this morning. take a look at the shares of blackstone and aig, both down slightly on this news, but this has been talked about for a few months, but we are getting word

that aig executed that trade, exiting blackstone this morning. >> all right, thank you very much. we're still awaiting the ceo of yelp to join us at post nine after having put in the first trade of 100 shares of the new york stock exchange, opening on when is undeniably successful stock. $24 and change, higher by almost 60% here. >> holy cow. hey, chief. >> holy cow. speaking of yelp, here we are with jeremy stoppelman, the co-founder and ceo of yelp. how does it feel? >> very exciting. great to be here. big day for the company. >> a very successful ipo, jeremy. at the same time, a lot of people have the question when will you be profitable? why are we paying a high multiple for a stock that doesn't make money? >> there is a lot of leverage in the model. that's just starting to show. the fourth quarter we were adjusted at break even. and so i think that's going to become apparent to investors as

well as media over time as we continue to execute and grow internationally. >> what are these levers, marketing costs seem to be rising across the board. a lot of competers in the space. i would imagine that cost will continue to rise as you go forward. how you do you fend off google, four square, all the others out there, with maybe deeper pockets than you? >> continue to grow revenue really rapidly and we're actually investing very heavily in international markets. we're not monetizing at all. this year we plan to build out a sales office and that's going to boost revenue we hope as well. >> explain to me the relationship, first of all, congratulations. >> thank you. >> 75% of yelp traffic allegedly is from google. google did one time try to buy you. then went and bought zagat last year. how do we know one day they look at this and say that guy is making too much money, we are going to cut you back and emphasize zagat and take you off the top of the queue. >> they want to give people the best content on the web.

we have that when it comes to local. they have tried. we have been competing with them for years and we have this community built out in 71 different markets that is generating more content, more word of mouth information than anybody else. >> that may be the case, but google has already removed some of the links to yelp in this fight for traffic as they sort of promote their own -- have you talked to them about this? are they doing this on purpose? is this something they'll continue to do, removing the links to yelp? >> this is something that we have been asking for. >> you want them to remanufacture -- even though 50% of your traffic came from goog until 2011, you want them to remove links to you? >> they were trying to take our content and use it to compete against us. we said we don't want that. we don't want to participate there. we asked them to remove it. we still drive traffic, a lot of traffic from google. that's growing because they have to send people to the best place on the web. >> speaking of sending people to the best place on the web, i go on twitter, put the query out, how many people use you, a lot

of people use you. a lot of people say, i worry that the review i'm reading is not -- that it is phony. how do you police? i like your stock. i think that the stock is very real. i can't resist pointing out that many people feel like, come on, that guy is just being paid off. >> 66 million consumers can't be wrong, right? we must be doing something right. the way we're handling that is we have a review filter. it is an algorithm that scans over the reviews, looks at data and figures up what should we trust and what we don't want to trust. we pull those reviews down off the page, so that consumers don't see that content. >> okay, also. you have a huge number of sales people. i think people don't understand, these are operations that require a lot of hiring. local advertising, very big, very difficult to get. what is your view about the local advertising market and how many people you need have, it is your company. >> local advertising is an enormous market. $20 billion spent on yellow pages alone. we feel like we're scratching

the surface. we're getting started. we have 24,000 customers. in a sea of literally millions of local businesses, so there is a lot of room for growth. we'll continue to build out that sales team and get bigger and bigger. >> is your pie in terms of percent from local advertising, is that going to grow now? it is 70%. do you anticipate that to expand and shrink display ads or grow both of them to keep them at the same percent? >> local advertising is at the core of what yelp is all about, finding local businesses. we expect that 70% will continue. we don't know how the mix can change. there are new products, that other category where there is yelp deals and that's been growing fast for us. but our guidance has been, yeah, 70%, that sounds about right for a business that is really about local and local advertising. >> if it is local, why do i find when i want to do hotel you're not the strong suit? how do you become the strong suit in hotels? >> do you want to? >> we have this day in and day out utility. we have breadth and depth.

day in and day out you're coming to yelp, that makes for an incredibly -- >> don't you want to win? let's -- you go back to, i'm done, i've had it, let's dominate hotels. >> if you're coming to the site every day, guess what you're going to be thinking about had you want a thoel. i'm hotel. i want yelp first. we become the big brand in local. >> to those who would say, interesting story, but then start to look at your financials, incredible revenue growth rate as you might expect for a company like yours but it did slow from 10 to 11. 85% revenue growth in 2010. 74% in 2011. is that going to continue to slow? or are you going to ramp up again? >> it is hard to say exactly. of course we're going to grow as fast as we can. it is about the sales team. we continue to hire aggressively and we'll see what happens. >> hire aggressively, of course that adds to your costs which means maybe you won't be, but -- >> there is leverage in the

sales. not only we're seeing that based on the fourth quarter. even though we're investing a lot in the sales force and internationally, it is already starting to show that we're starting to cover all the centralized costs that -- >> what do you do with the proceeds from the 7.1 million shares you sold today? >> that will give us a lot of flexibility, capitalize the company properly. we'll see. >> one thing i am concerned about, a lot of people say, they have been around for a long time. why haven't they made money already? >> we have been in growth mode. hyp hypergrowth. >> people told me web van was in growth mode. i was too early to buy web van. >> but we're adjusting to break even in the fourth quarter. we are getting there. we're crossing over that point. the sales team continues to grow. the leverage is a model and it is starting to show up. >> the question is why the choice to go public now if your growth rate has been strong, you're getting to the positive, you said you're going to figure out what you're going to do with the money. why now as opposed to waiting?

>> it feels like the company is ready. we have got real revenues, a great team behind us and we're growing quickly and it feels like there is a lot of things on the table that make it a good opportunity for investors. >> seeing groupon go public, zeng why zengia go public, you're only offering 12% of shares out there. so did you want to see that first day pop? do you think, in your thinking, was that an important aspect of your ipo? >> no, this is just a single step in the life of a company. it is a chapter in a very long book that is to be written. we have a grand vision. we want to bring yelp to the world, manage the mobile transition that is happening, want to play a big part of that and be the broadest and deepest content source for local information, really the amazon of local when we think about it. >> the amazon of local. >> how about trying to get a part of the transaction. i had the open table ceo on the other day. they need to partner. they need to partner with you, you get a little bit of a -- are

you going to be able to do partnerships? there is a great opportunity to work with other internet companies. >> i think there is a lot of transaction partnerships out there. we're already working with open table, a great experience. if you're on the website, you're on mobile, you can book right from your phone or right on the site, you never have to leave it and consumers love it, it is driving a lot of transactions. we have a new product, seven months old, called yelp deals, in the other revenue category and that's working for us. people are able to get deals right when they're in the moment. they're already looking for that business. they're looking at a spot and saying which one do i want to go to? one of them is offering a deal. $10 for 20. they transact. >> is that a partnership with somebody as well. >> that's a product we built ourselves, yeah. >> are you going to retain more people or attract more people as a result of being a public company in. >> yeah, we think it is a great media event. there say lost publicity, that can't hurt. >> but stock throughout the organization, i assume that can help. >> what do you mean? >> the lure of options, for

instance, in hiring somebody. that has to be attractive if you can get a piece of yelp? >> absolutely. our employees as part of signing up have gotten stock options over the years. stock is a big part of compensation in the valley and everyone is excited to be part of this ipo and see their -- see what their stock is worth. >> so let's go back 12 years. >> yeah. >> there were people in your position, they rang a bell, big excitement, a lot of hoopla and they lost people's fortunes. you're a historian. you recognize that. when you talk to your bankers, anthony nodos, are you not concerned you do not want to be part of a repeat of what destroyed trillions of dollars for americans? >> i was there. i was there in 1999. >> what were you doing then? >> i was at pay pal. and pay pal created enormous value. it is now driving ebay's business there are real businesses created. you to look at quality.

you can't buy stocks willie nilly. what is working, what has a lasting, sustainable value. >> to someone who says yelp is part of a new bubble of the internet age in the 2000s, you would say absolutely not. it is different this time around. >> i would say keep an eye on us, you'll see. >> fair enough. >> i thought you would say your goal was world dominance. that was often said during 1999. >> who wants to dominate the world. why not? >> jeremy, thank you for stopping by post nine. jeremy stoppelman, ceo of yelp. an eventful morning at post nine. jim, always good to see you. >> congratulations. >> 6-11. >> next hour of "squawk on the street" starts right now. to the road map for the next hour. tech on fire. the nasdaq crossing that key 3,000 mark earlier in the week. microsoft launching windows

eight. and yelp kicking off its first day of trade. the ceo walking off the set. we break it all down. we'll head to our second home in the windy city where carl sits down with chicago cubs chairman tom rickets. on the back of yelp's debut, we have a one on one with the executive vice president and head of listing. what did he have to do to get yelp here, what are they doing to get facebook here. couldn't go too long without talking apple. several all time highs, but one analyst is screaming sell apple. we break down his take on that tech trade that seems to not want to stop. >> sara lee announcing it will pay a special dividend of $3 a share, part of a plan to spin off its coffee and tea unit through a stock listing in amsterdam later this year. >> the market is having a big week after the dow crossed 13,000 and the nasdaq temporarily blew past 3,000. what about the s&p?

suggesting 1700 is not that far away. that would be a 24% move from where we are this morning. >> tremendous. federal authorities have busted what they said is one of the largest attempts ever to smuggle counterfeit goods into the united states. several dozen arrests have been made. the justice department says the individuals allegedly tried to smuggle $325 million in fake goods from china through the port of newark. elizabeth marine terminal in new jersey. more details forth coming at a noon eastern time press conference. >> in newark. >> yes. >> i want know what they were trying to smuggle. this is a major dynamic moving forward. >> that's true. yeah. are they pocketbooks or ipads? i don't know. >> or pharmaceuticals. that what really concerns me. >> that should be a concern, yeah. not familiar with what was in the $325 million worth of counterfeit goods. >> we'll find out.

>> i look forward to. will you let me know? >> i'll text you. >> will you be watching at noon. >> i watch all the time. i'm a data hog constantly watching television. i have one of those little screens now. those glasses. >> quite a look. >> thank you. thank you. we are here at "squawk on the street" and we have got you covered whether on the east coast time or in the midwest. and on that note, by the way, why don't we check back in with our very own it says here, our very own carl quintanilla standing by in the windy city, has his own road map at our second home. carl? >> we thought we would try a midwestern version of the road map. we'll call it the loop and if you have ever been to chicago, you'll understand why the loop is exactly where we are. first off, the money man behind the chicago cubs, tom rickets, cubs, one of my favorite teams obviously, didn't do as well as we liked last year. there is a new gm in town. we'll talk to tom coming up.

we'll talk to president obama's former money man austan goolsbee with us live to talk about the state of the economy, the president's next move and the re-election campaign on a day when the geithner op-ed is making waves. like jake in ellwood, they're putting the band back together. we have a whole host of characters. you saw the wolf man and kevin ferry. coming up, ferry and santelli, all live from the pits as the cattle and hog pit as well will begin to fire up in 45 seconds, guys. we'll see you in a few minutes. >> carl, it has been a busy week for technology between the yelp ip ox on the big board this morning and microsoft, the nasdaq crossing that key 3,000 level earlier this week. we have a tech guru on set with us. rick shirtland, head of u.s. equity research. he joins us now. always great to see you. you don't cover companies like

yelp per se. but does this help open the gates in terms of all of the other ipos waiting in the wings? >> i think there is a wave of ipos coming. a lot will be enterprise oriented, more in my backyard. i think we're all busy now looking at a lot companies. there is a big backlog of companies coming. >> is there one that you're watching? >> yes, but i can't talk about it. >> do you think this adds to the animal spirits out there in a sense or increases focus on offerings that may be coming from different areas of technology? >> i think they have gone through a long period where sentiment has been pretty dam n dampened. i think it is reflecting more optimism and i think more of these could go out that perform well, just adds a little more confidence, i think. >> a very wise man said to me, when you look at stocks, look at businesses, you should say what is the market capitalization and could i re-create it for that. yelp busted through, clearly through a billion in valuation

today. could i re-create yelp for 1.2, $1.3 billion would be my question and therefore is this entire sector fairly valued or overvalued? >> one thing we need to think about is timing the market. a lot of companies you could re-create. by the time you've done that in three years, five years, the markets moved on. to time the market is a lot of what you're paying for with these companies. >> i with and to get back to microsoft. when you came on to "squawk on the street," fwlif wi believe i trading around the 20s, now 32 and change, hit a fresh record, not a record, 52 week high, just days ago. where are we with microsoft? have you seen the beta version of windows, do you think it is the catalyst you said it was going to be way back in the fall? >> yes, that was september and the stock was probably around 24 or so. and my observation was everyone dislikes the stock. even my cab driver doesn't like

it. the sentiment was set up well. and we saw a lot of new products coming that will be out later this year. the most important is windows 8. and i was just in barcelona, two days ago, and saw the preview of the product. i think it looks very good. but the observation i would make is that most people still dislike microsoft. they think of it as apple versus microsoft. and that's true for probably 25% or 30% of the market consumer oriented with ipad. there is another 75% of the market where microsoft has a lot of strength. and they're showing up to the game, with the product that offers touch as well as ability to use office. it will create an upgrade psycho. >> for an ordinary joe, what is windows eight got that will turn them on? >> it delivers touch capability. but it does it in such a way that if i want to use excel or word still, the fingers are pretty blunt instrument for interacting with a device.

i'll use the keyboard and mouse. so they implemented it in a nice way so it will run across a variety of these exciting form factor. the ultra book touch devices. i would say on the stock, the last five windows releases, the stock and the six months leading up to the release to manufacturing, which i think will be end of july or august, the stock is up on average 21% over the period. this is all relative to the market. to a high of 30%. we're in the -- >> 21% move over the past 12 months. >> this represents a period where investor sentiment is bullish in front of the launch of a new product. the closer you get, you're in a gravitational pull of new product cycle now. >> there is nothing like having good news coming that gets people excited. >> a company we don't talk about often is oracle. enrmo enormous company, of course, mobile so important. but it is -- is oracle positioned properly at this point? i know i believe you have a

neutral rating on it. given how much data is out there, that is no longer -- that is uncorrelated, so to speak? >> i have a buy on it. they are challenged by a couple of things including a movement to big data. so unstructured data. and the dupe is an open source product. they have partnered with a company to better position for that. but i think the big issue with oracle is they had a very bad november quarter. and i think that they defocused -- there is a lot of emphasis of the company on hardware, apalestines and mark hurd is over there now. they have to put a sales force back to what they're good at, selling software and build more of their own direct hardware sales organization. this quarter a little more optimistic than the quarter in february. >> in terms of sales force.com and effort to compete with oracle, is that a head wind for oracle at this point? >> yeah. certainly with their business,

sales force is a competitor. they are taking business from oracle in that area. oracle has now delivered their fusion suite of products with an effort to move to the cloud. sap has been a favorite stock of mine, also making acquisitions now, moving to the cloud. the cloud and social networking and all of the things you're seeing in the consumer space, you're seeing the consumerization of a lot of enterprise it. it is incorporated into the products now and we see that with sales force.com, they're going to be a $3 billion revenue company this year. and oracle and sap are sort of getting in the game now as well, just like microsoft is getting in the game with touch. i think that's exciting for the companies that have all been left behind and the valuations are ten times calendar 2012 earnings ex-cash. i think there is a big opportunity for all of these names. and oracle, i think, will do well in the cloud eventually. just a difficult transition for a few more years probably. >> bob was pointing out that a lot of the successful ip oxs

here, the big board have been cloud computing ipos. is that one area you think the floodgates will open for the positive environment? >> absolutely. you'll see social networking coming more to the enterprise in ways we can collaborate with work groups and cloud computing is a very exciting new dimension that you're going to see a lot of the enterprise software companies take advantage of. >> you had a lovely comment. we said how young the yelp ceo looked and then you recounted when you went on the road show for the microsoft ipo with bill gates. >> i think we were both about 30 years old at the time. i looked at photos back then and you don't realize how young you were at the time. >> he was 29 when he took microsoft. >> you look all right. don't worry about it. hanging in there, rick. okay? >> rick, it is great to see you. stop by anytime. rick shirtland. >> still to come on the program, we're heading back over to our second home in the windy city to talk exclusively with chicago

cubs chairman and owner tom ricketts about wrigley field, ticket sales, what he's expecting for the 2012 season. stick around. "squawk on the street" is back in two. coming up, spring is in the air. that can mean only one thing. baseball. we have the chicago cubs owner tom ricketts joining us next. what action can we expect at wrigley field this season? batter up. "squawk on the street" will be right back.

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stocks to watch, 45 minutes into trading. lowe's upgraded from underweight at morgan stanley. a123 systems upgraded. eli lilly upgraded to neutral from what had been an underweight at jpmorgan. back over to the windy city and mr. quintanilla. carl? >> thank you very much, david. i'm standing here honored to be in the presence of a former trader, chairman of in capital and owner of the chicago cups, tom ricketts. not in that order. you used to walk across the street. >> been about seven years out of

college making markets. good days. >> you were discussing how this is a homecoming. >> pretty comfortable on the floor. changed a bit over the years. but it is a -- still feels good. >> talk about business before we talk baseball. people don't know in capital, underwrites a lot of corporate bonds. we know what the corporate bond market has been like. how long does that window last? >> we're finding things are stable. we're having a great year. there is a lot of -- people are comfortable with the markets, where they're at now. i have a feeling we'll see good stability through the election. i don't think anything will change this year. i think it will still be a pretty good market for the rest of the year. >> on the muni front, despite all of the doomsdayers, that stability there as well and we heard a lot about stocks in california, for instance, running into severe -- that's pockets of trouble. >> yeah, you know, we have seen bits and pieces where there are pockets of trouble. in general, the markets held in

there. i think investors should be fairly confident in their munis too. >> your third year with the cubs, bringing in theo from boston. fox sports said he's a man, looks like a guy who has hit his stride. you go along with that ? >> i don't know about the hitting the stride comment. we're confident about where we're going. the new leadership in the front office, new leadership on the field, we have new faces in the clubhouse, and i think we're going to have a great season this year. >> you told fans to have expectations, despite the record last year, despite what some say is a lack of marquis player on the roster going into 2012, they should expect something. >> what i said is, expect these guys to play hard. expect these guys to compete. and expect them to play good fundamental baseball. those are the kind of thins we're focusing on this spring training and i think it will be a good season for us. >> you talked about money ball and the way some proprietary

strategies became public, probably not to the betterment of baseball in general. how is that going to -- to what degree is that going to influence how the team plays this year? >> i don't know exactly. specifically about any of the money ball things. i think a lot of things that are out there, a lot of the teams are using, i think there is a level playing field in terms of which analytics are being used by the various organizations. so i think it is our challenge to look at what is next. i think everybody has caught up to the quantitative analysis. team that finds that next little edge will, you know, hopefully benefit. >> dow at 13,000. nasdaq putting in some post crisis highs, getting close to that. does that affect ticket sales? are you feeling people willing to spend more on season tickets, better seats? >> our ticket sales are pretty strong, our season ticket holders, they're wonderful, wonderful base, they almost all of them renewed, we had a few new season tickets that went out

and those sold right away. we have a huge waiting list for that. we have tickets available in april and may. and good cheap tickets too if people want to bring their families or good value. so from ticket sales standpoint, i think that we start winning and showing everybody that we're a team, it is going to compete every day and play hard, you know, we'll be fine. it will all fill out. >> i was teasing you during the commercial break, you're living every chicago guy's dream. but anybody who loves baseball has a soft spot in their heart for the cubs. what is that like? >> i'm living my own dream. it is wonderful. i like -- i like that we're -- i think we're bringing the team in the right direction. i love getting out talking to all the fans. i love that i -- i strongly believe we'll get wrigley cleaned up and fixed up and preserved for the next generation. we're doing a lot for the community, a lot more than the team ever did. so we're doing a lot and it feels great. >> a long time since 1908.

is this the year? >> i don't know about the year. we stay away from those kind of thin things. but we're better and will continue to get better. >> thank you. if you want to trade some hogs -- >> i don't want to buy anything. maybe i'll sell some stuff, though. >> tom ricketts, thank you very much. we'll send it back to you at post nine. >> a check on yelp, which made its public debut today, it is up by 57%. 23.64 or thereabouts. we spoke with the ceo, jeremy stoppelman here. up next, the nyse executive vice president about that it took to get yelp to list here and that they're doing to lure facebook here as well.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." we have more breaking news now on that counterfeit bust in new jersey and new york by the feds. just got off the phone with the department of justice spokesperson who filled me on some of the details. 26 people have been charged in this. and arrests as of the top of this hour, 10:00 a.m. eastern, still ongoing in new york, new jersey and in texas in this case involving about $325 million worth of counterfeit goods. we got a list of some of the

brand names that have been impacted in this counterfeiting scheme. those include ugg boots, timberland boots, nooky shoes, burberry scarves, gucci, lacoste, polo and louis vuitton, coming in on container ships to u.s. ports. >> sounds like a huge operation. thank you very much for update. we'll await the full news conference midday in newark. we're standing at the position on the floor of the new york stock exchange where yelp had its opening trade, 35, 40 minutes ago and a surge since then. bob pisani is here with the guy who brings the new listings to the nyse. >> scott cutler, head of listings at the new york stock exchange and he's the reason the stock is down here. this is a tech stock. they usually go to nasdaq. what did you do to seal this deal? how did you get yelp down here?

>> we had 60% of the technology. if yelp is about connecting people to businesses, we're about trying to connect companies to our community, our network. >> is it as simple as that? was there any money exchanged? any offer? how you did the deal come down? what made them say yes to you and no to nasdaq? >> for us it is about trying to create an opportunity for a partnership. and, again, we have a great opportunity to leverage their platform to connect with businesses, and they can leverage our community to build out a global brand. and if we can create that partnership, it is powerful. >> the big kahuna down here. and that's the next one coming. you're going to ask the same question, i'm going to ask, facebook. you're talking to facebook. they haven't announced where they're going to list, haven't said anything so far. what are you saying to them? >> if we have the opportunity to create a partnership that has global value, then we're able to win these transactions. and for technology companies in

particular this has been a focus of ours, and our success proves out the point. >> what does it mean? what does that mean in practice? what do you offer them? >> the nasdaq says also we want to create a partnership in all of this good sales pitchy kind of stuff. >> sure. you think about the nyse as a community, we have the global brands that are listed here. if we can have an opportunity to tap into that network and provide companies that opportunity to expand to that network, that's something that no other exchange can provide. >> are you cutting fees at all? we had some defacts from the nyse to the nasdaq citing the cost of listing. via come comes to mind as one of those companies that recently switched because of that reason. is that come up as a bargaining point for you to lure companies here? >> we had 20 companies come the other way to the nyse and so i don't think it is about that. it really is truly about creating a partnership. and that's what we're trying to focus on. >> there is 200 ipos sitting out there the ipo business is not that hot. what is it going to take to get

the companies to come out and start listing? >> we have got nearly 120 companies on file that are listed with the nyse, several billion dollars. when we looked at this, about six months ago, we were looking for low volatility and improving business environment. that's what we have. we expect to see this pipeline convert into the market. >> how you about a hot sector? we got cloud computing. that's all we keep talking about. guide ware, green ware, bright clove all hot. we got another one coming here. you just filed for demand ware. didn't that happen yesterday? that's going to be listed here in the next two weeks, will it not? there is another cloud computing stock. >> it is about, for these types of companies, new platforms, new communities, and new markets. and investors are excited about it. and these companies are act set ra accelerating. >> isn't there anything else out there? what else? oil? how about oil companies? oil companies went public in the last couple of months. >> yeah, absolutely. you see the biggest sectors have

been oil and gas, energy, financials, health care, consumer and internet technology. >> give us a prediction. will facebook list at the big board? >> we hope to. they should. >> a lot of lunches between now and then. >> the street's love affair with apple soaring after the stock has hit several new all time highs. just this week. so is the excitement building over next week's big announcement, how is one analyst is screaming now is the time to she sell apple shares. [ mujahid ] there was a little bit of trepidation, not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be,

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we're about one hour into trading. here are the stories we're talking about. 7:3 2 on west coast. yelp, wall street debut, trading more than 60% above its ipo price, up 15 bucks a share. zengia up 8% and trading at its highest level since going public in december. shares soaring 66% year to date. on the retail front, coach and tjx hitting fresh all time highs

today. >> stock below 13,000 on the dow as you can see and 3,000 on the nasdaq. both of which, of course, we have achieved during the course of the week. the bulls would love us to close above their later advance decline line. over at nasdaq, energy stocks slightly lower, that's the only sector that stands out so far this friday. >> back to chicago and link in with carl. carl? >> simon, thanks a lot. watching closely what is happening in stock markets today along with rick santelli here on the floor of the cme. good to see you. you say this may have been a bit of a head fake today and even this week, given how it would have been -- it would have made sense for stocks to correct after what bernanke said. >> they had the perfect opportunity to correct when the fed came out and sounded a little less dovish and the stock market chose to ignore that. that's a sign of resilience. what is going to make the stocks go down?

every day happens like today, we're down five or six handles and we think this is the day the correction will come and then that invisible bid comes up. i don't know what that is, but my guess is is that in the background we knee if things start to tumble and get bad, the fed comes back in and injects liquidity. >> somebody tweeted it is corps larry part two. you're not in trouble. the data is there to back you up, to lift the market. >> i couldn't agree more. i think the kool-aid plays a big part of it, the sweetener the fed is putting in, the most stocks may be a bit purple like the old commercial. i think at the end of the day, here is what i pay attention to, when we talk about what stocks are doing or what they may do, jim euro is right, i think in an election year, you could say the fed has no political bias one way or the other. but the way i look at it, what happens when qe is front and center on the world, you see things like high oil prices. to me, if you're looking to get

re-elected, even more important than any other fundamental, if there is $5 gas, might as well go to disney world. >> oil for a second, after this report yesterday there was knocked down about an explosion on a pipeline in saudi, some saying if the market can avoid panic buying, maybe they can take some of the steam out of what is taking us from 100 to 110. >> can we avoid this headline? don't go home short oil. you get these headlines and you lose a lot of money. oil has got a bid. oil and gold, gold had market position corrects to work through. i think oil is stabilized up here. 13 out of the last 15 months, west texas traded over 100. that to me is significant. and at some point in time, perhaps it causes some sort of recession, but i don't think that's happening today. the economy seems to be doing okay with it. >> are the scars gone from gold earlier in the week? >> i don't think when you have a day like that, i think it takes a couple of weeks for people it

reposition and people to lick their wounds. i don't think gold is ready to go screaming again. the fundamental argument for gold remains. it will take a week or so. >> td today, still calling for 2000 by year end. we'll see what happens there. crazy week. >> i'll tell you what, i think we'll see the adjusted 860 record price in 1980. i think you'll see that. 2300, just a matter of -- >> i maybe challenge the end of the year. >> i agree with you. >> seems like too short a time frame. >> back to you. >> thank you very much, carl we'll stay with that commodity theme. a new survey, a major survey out today suggesting the number of institutional investors intending to increase their exposure to commodities is higher now than it was a year ago. kevin nourish is managing director of commodities research at barclays capital. thank you for joining us. is this because during the course of the last year so many people sold commoditys? >> i think so, yes. we certainly -- we asked people what they did with their commodity exposure last year and

found that most people in the market did cut that exposure. not really for commodity related reasons, but just as part of that general risk aversion trade. and coming into this year with very, very low levels of exposure. we found only a quarter of the people that we surveyed, the hedge fund investors and institutional investors, had commodity exposure anywhere near their target allocation levels. this survey was carried out in february. it does look as if not many people participated in that early rally, but i think now with oil prices rising, with china looking as if it is going to get a soft landing, there is a feeling that commodities really are an asset class that you need to have in your portfolio. >> kevin, if they haven't followed through on what you thought they would do before, why a part from the money argument should they do so now? >> there is lots of good reasons. it is clear that we're going to have a period of relatively slow growth in the industrialized world. but china is looking very

strong. i think you've got that secular pull on the demand side coming through. and if you look at the supply side, and very little slack in the system, we can talk about oil and the lack of spare capacity that there is there, you know, look at the sort of levels of copper inconvenievent there are around the world and consumers are probably holding the lowest levels of copper that they ever held. these markets are very, very tight right now. and then of course you have the geopolitical risks and potential for oil prices to continue to grind higher and the implications of that has for other assets that people are holding. right now it looks very much to me as if there is an overwhelming argument to have some form of relative exposure. >> i'm told we're out of time. i have one more question, there are so many trades, gold, oil, copper, natural gas, what stands out to you moving forward? what is your best bet, please? >> i think you to have oil. it does look to me as if -- we

don't need to have some sort of cataclysmic event for oil prices to tend to trend gradually higher. >> what target would you have? >> that's the tricky one. i think question grind higher up to 130, 140, maybe 150 even. >> on brent. >> yeah, on brent, yeah. >> and wti? >> wti will go that way too. i think if you're an investor, you should be very nervous about leverage to that one. we do know about the -- the land lock nature of that contract and how it can very easily can become dislocated. >> kevin, good to talk to you. thank you for joining us. safe journey back. >> apple's market capitalization is worth more than half a trillion dollars. one of the biggest investors mark andreissen said there is more room for apple to grow. >> i've been a believe are apple has been undervalued for over ten year. it was undervalued at 300.

i would certainly say it is undervalued at 500. they're doing an amazing job across a whole number of categories and the market opportunity is gigantic. i wouldn't blink for a second at the thought that it will go up a lot from here. >> many on the street agree with andreissen. there are 46 buys, three holds and one sell rating on the stock. ed is the man with the one sell rating on the stock. his price target, $2.70. a pleasure to speak with you. >> good to speak with you too. >> you're at a sell rating for -- since 2009 after you launched coverage of apple, i believe. a couple of months later you downgraded it. you missed this tremendous run. i have to ask you, do people buy your research because who would buy a report that had advised you to be at a sell rating on apple since 2009? they missed a tremendous opportunity if they followed your recommendation. >> right, well, a lot of -- there is more to the world than

apple first of all. i know everyone believes on wall street believes the sun revolves around apple now. but it is not true. what people use me for is ecosystem research. they're looking for inflexion points in the market. and i allow them to use their own heads. we could talk about my calls all day. but i don't think, you know there is more complexity than just my call on apple. there is -- there is a tremendous market inflexion point going on, and it is happening. just wall street is totally oblivious to it for the moment. >> is this an inflexion point that happening over the span of multiyears. it has been three years since you've been at a sell rating and that inflexion for this particular stock despite all of your ecosystem research has not happened. >> absolutely. so, look, you have to follow along with the story. and the story is web apps. they're changing the world and

you just got -- microsoft just rang the bell at mobile world congress this week. you have a billion and a quarter windows users who are going to be using web apps with windows 8. facebook, for example, has over 100 million web app users now versus only 57 million ios and android users. so people are getting it and they're moving away from this paradigm. and the bell has been rung. it is over. >> you can be right for an awfully long time. but the market may not be with you. would youed alea at least admits a great trade. apple has gone up 40%. its price valuation is 12 or 13 times earnings with a billion dollars in the bank. >> well, the problem with that argument is really that it is based on a closed ecosystem and based on 60% gross margins in the iphone. so i think that the p ex-he hase

looked at in that regard. i did see the rise of the android ecosystem a couple of years ago. and it has done spectacularly well. what i didn't see was the utter collapse of every other mobile operating system. it is incredible how all these companies did not execute. and it is also incredible how well apple executed during this period. it just has been spectacular. >> so, ed, we have been focusing on apple. what is your top pick? >> right now, i don't have any top picks and that's because there are changes going on in -- on the long side. there are changes going on that are just so huge, moving toward a fully web connected world, toward web apps is going to cause so much disruption and so much expense for all the companies that are involved in the pc and cell phone ecosystem that we just got to wait for the shake-up. you have to step out of the way

and wait, even if you're not thinking about shorting stocks, you have to -- you have to step out of the way and wait for these changes to happen. the world just all of a sudden got a thousand bridges across the river. apple built a great bridge, but hdml 5 and web apps are going to change everything. >> ed, thank you for joining us. appreciate your time. ed zabitsky. >> a man of conviction. >> apparently. >> the bell's been rung. it is over. >> i abodid mean to say it was billion euros, not a billion. coming up, how about a little bit of liesman? an investing guide to one of the most volatile markets in the world. steve, good evening. >> simon, good evening from russia. and from moscow. you know, amid political stability and corruption, some are still saying there is an investment case to be made for

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ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. investing in russia requires political and business sense and nerves of steel. steve liesman is in moscow with some insights into whether you should put some of your money to work in one of the world's most volatile markets. mr. liesman, take it away. >> thank you, melissa. russia's been very, very good and very, very bad for foreign investors. but those who have ridden the waves here in the long run have come in on top actually way on top. steven jennings is the ceo of russian renaissance capital, one of the biggest independent banks in moscow. he says every year since the

russian market began in 1995, russia's been either one of the top three or four top markets or one of the three or four main bottom markets in the world. long-term, however, he is bullish. >> the good news is there is a heck of a lot of stuff, institutions, corruption and so forth, still to be fixed up and modernized. but if we see the same rate of change and development in the next 20 years or even half of what we're seeing in the last 20 years, we'll see a very different country 20 years from now. >> take a look at the wild ride you've had investing in russia. 2500% up since 1995. the worst year you had to suffer through 1998, down nearly 90%. since the october low, the markets up 45%. and year to date, it is up 25%. the market, of course, took a tumble most recently in december when there was accusations of voter fraud on the parliamentary elections. it rose 5% in a single day when opinion polls showed vladimir

putin was likely to win the presidency again. now, we spoke with sergi analyst, and he explains why voters are likely to return putin to power this weekend. >> the vast majority of russians, they still don't understand how those basic rights, except the right to earn and go abroad, you see, so you can tell them you can't eat politics. these people really support putin, because he gives them something. over time, however, this growing middle class expected to he's

been in jail since the early part of the 2000s and bill browder, a company bakley stolen from him. still, most foreign investors have some waiting in russia with that waiting going up and down. those are the cold heart facts. >> steve liesman, thank you. we do want to update you on shares of wynn. they were halted for news pending. we don't have the news yet. they were up 6.3%. >> made a couple calls, we'll see if we can get an answer. >> if anybody condition, faber can. >> they're going to talk about the cults of zuckerberg, but first back to carl in chicago. >> every person at one pont in their lives should stroll the trading floor with this man right here. it's like going down the red

carpet at cannes. when we come back, the head of boeing commercial airplanes, jim harbaugh. >> that's exciting. i think american technology in the form of boeing and manufacturing, i just think it's as good as it gets. we have a lot of proud and great companies in this country, carl. >> a lot more "squawk on the street" in just a moment. so uh this is my friend frank and his, uh, retirement plan. one golden crown. come on frank how long have we known each other? go to e-trade. they got killer tools man. they'll help you nail a retirement plan that's fierce.

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i'm jane wells. shares of wynn still halted on news pending. we still don't know what that news is. it could have something to do with the 8-k it filed this morning. it has agreed to open a second casino in macau, to build a five-start hotel. for wynn here results. it is may have to do with the law former friend okatu. we're still waiting, still spending. shares of course were up nightly. intoic to you guys. >> the but anything down here

this morning, the ipo of yelp, the last big one before facebook hits the street. the latest issue of "fortune" features a peek behind the scenes into the world of mark zuckerberg. good morning to you. >> hello. >> it still comes back to the same position, the cult of zuck, he's in full control and investors are foolish if they think he won't maximize here. >> we thought it would be a good idea to get into the management story, right in we wanted to know if this was about one guy or if there was a thorough understanding in the company it was a tightly disciplined place that could help innovation bubble up from anyone. >> answer? >> and these guys have been thinking about this for a long time. they have, you know, mark

spelled it out in the investor letter. he called something out called the hacker way. we went behind the scenes to figure it out. we discovered a very disciplined approach, a whole team of people in facebook putting it into effect at every turn. these guys, they have an incredible challenge. first of all, they're growing so fast, right? 3,200 employees. second of all more than half of these employees graduated from college last year. these are not trained managers. >> so there is a cult -- you call it the cult of zuck. it's not that he's a dictator -- >> he's a good football coach. he can inspire his players to do great work. >> i have word that they are treating their would-be investors pretty well, and the discipline they're showing that is a company that will soon be public.

simplgts they're facing the spam challenge all these companies do. all of a sudden the demands change, a lot of times this is a point where companies lose focus. >> what about sheryl sandberg. she is the money woman. she's supposed to be the public face, how she is brought her own people in, you call it "foss" friends of -- is that good for investors? >> best thing that ever happened to facebook, best thing that could possibly ha happen for investors? >> why? >> it's not unusual for an important leader to bring in her own people. she's brought them in. sure people call them foss, they have for the most part performed

incredibly well. she works incredibly closely with mark. it's a company that values communication. that's what they do. they're a communication plate form. >> have they set up a good cop/bad cop situation, where zuckerberg is the guy with the vision, and sheryl is the money person. >> if you watched that event, she was there, but she actually let a lot of the people who work for her do a lot of the talking. i wouldn't call it a good cop/bad cop situation, i would call it a good cop/good cop situation if you want to call it that at all. >> jessi, thank you for coming? we'll take you back to the windy city? just a few, where carl and the gang will be joined by dan zwonk. stay tuned. take the privileged investing tools of wall street and make them simple, intuitive, and available to all. distill all that data.

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without the stuff that we make here, you wouldn't be able to walk in your house and flip on your lights. [ brad ] at ge we build turbines that power the world. they go into power plants which take some form of energy, harness it, and turn it into more efficient electricity. [ ron ] when i was a kid i wanted to work with my hands, that was my thing. i really enjoy building turbines. it's nice to know that what you're building is gonna do something for the world. when people think of ge, they typically don't think about beer.

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>> the financial system we had in 2008 and 2009 was manifestly inadequate. >> spain, italy, it mirrors -- if you give them things to try to create a solution for things they cause, in the independence they're going to keep wanding more and more and more. there it is, the opening bell. real th really the amazon of

local. >> obviously the new leadership in the front office, we have new leadership on the field, we've got new faces in the clubhouse. i think we'll have a great season this year, and i think we're building for great seasons in the future. >> good morning, welcome to sweet home chicago. we have live from the floor of the cme for the third hour of "squawk on the street." looking at moderate weakness on the s&p and the dow, nasdaq hanging on to a thin sliver of a gain today. yelp making its debut today, up about 60% right now. energy stock, some of the biggest losers as crude oil pulls back more than a dollar, anadarko, peabody are some of the names in the red. the rundown today, we're calling in honor of chicago, the loop. boeing, the 1,000th 777 being delivered, but there are growing questions about the growing backlog.

we'll talk to the head of boeing's commercial airports with phil lebeau. and austan goolsbee is here with us in chicago. less than half an hour away from the european close, we have a panel of market experts and economists ready to analyze and john alison has a plan to improve the jobs picture on a very special chi-town episode. phil lebeau is talking -- we got the cubs on earlier, that was a good thing. now another big chicago entity. that is boeing. the headquarters are here, but so much of what we're focusing on happens in the pacific northwest. we are joined live from boeing field by jim elbaugh.

on a big day you're delivers your 1,000th 777. it's quietly and steadily gained ground and become a key part of the portfolio, has it not? >> it's a big airplane for us, 200 orders last year, the most capable airplane of its class. >> jim, when you look at your market right now, and in particular, let's start with the 787, we have done extensive reporting on the issue of shimmying and delamination problems potentially. i know you're inspecting those planes. where are you in the process of inspections and repairs. >> we do have to go in and do some reshimming. it will take about 14 days to do it. it will have a near-term impact on deliveries, but shouldn't impact the number of planes we

deliver each year. >> but you're going to slow down at least in the first half as you're working your way through this process, right? >> correct. yes. >> i also want to ask you about the 737 max. i know you have more than 1,000 orders and commitments for the plane, but what caught our attention is some comments injure a few days ago from michael o'leary out of the europe, essentially when you look at what he's saying, he's listen, this is a dog's dinner, his assessment of the plane so far, and he goes on to say, it looks as though they drew this thing up on the back of a cigarette pack, they don't even know what it's going to look like, really a scathing review. what's your reaction to those comments? >> michael is a great customer of ours. we've been over to see him to talk about the airplane. i'm seeing michael next week. i think we can convince them this is an airplane that is much more capable than the ng he's

buying today. we expect to sell him from airplanes. >> we're all used to him making bombastic comments. do you take it as michael being michael, or do you look at this and say, listen, that's unfair? >> we take michael seriously. i certainly disagree with the way he's characterize the max. it sells me that michael might be a little away from the rest of the people we're talking to. >> jim, you have 3400 at least planes on the backlog stretching out for several years. questioning are starting to arise in terms of whether or not that backlog holds up. you have a number of airlines, and people are saying, do we expect these orders to come through? do you have some holds that potentially means it's not 3,400 when it's all said and done, but substantially less? >> actually, phil, the backlog

is over 4,000 airplanes right now, and over $300 billion. yeah, we don't know what's going to happen to the economy. when you have the economy soften, you have people that defer orders, push them to the right. we build our skyline, assuming some of that will happen, but a backlog of seven years is too long. i would like to burn the backlog down. if things soften a bit, it will give us a chance to get the backlog down to a more manageable left. >> jim al baugh, thank you. when they came out it with it people said it's a great plea, but i'm not sure it has extended life. it's been a solid deliverer. >> and it comes on a week where the 747-8 is going to some good

vip customers. i was giving cramer a shard time how he would retrofit his 747. >> i would love to go in one of those personalized vip planes, bus the vips don't want you in those planes. >> that plane, 40 years old is trying to keep its relevance in a crowded market. >> welcome back. >> thank you. >> good stuff with albaugh. i have to witness this, the san tellist exchange. i have a front seat. >> being friday, it can be serious, but kind of keep it on the light side. after we discussed that op-ed by mr. geithner, i really think regulation is something we need to pay a lot of attention to. remember, you can look at life in a lot of different ways. it was regulations in a way that caused many of the cds problems, the enron exemption, how they allowed certain derivatives to be included in certain tiered capital category. this was caused by regulation.

second issue is the free lunch loop i think is loopy. you know, you can look at countries, you can look at greece, italy, look at spain. it seems to easy to bring it down to this level, this percentage of gdp, but making the people that really are the country not only do it, but do it in a way where you package it as something palatable will be no easy job. carl, in this country we'll get to that point as well. we need our leaders to be very honest. it's going to be a bumpy ride, and last but not least, ism, we never did a post mortem this is what energy prices will do in the next set of surveyor numbers. >> prices paid, highest since june, and your point is that data is fresh out of the oven, and that it's going to feed that argument that growth will slow as inflation accelerates, right? >> yes.

whether we like it or not, in this country there happens pose a 0.9999 correlation, we're an energy society, and i think every facet, every pow saying thats u.s. has crossed that point -- >> exactly. so the percentage that you spend hurts you, but when you have energy at low prices, that's going to fuel more gdp. >> all but one of the post war recessions have been preceded by some kind of oil shock. >> so why do our leaders not understand this, carl? >> tap the sdr, it will be fine. >> tap it? they should put a big hose into my cars. that's what they all to do. coming up after the break, austan goolsbee of the chicago business school will be with us,

talking about some economics, some politics, as we're just eight months away from the election. don't go away. what happened.me agn i was downstairs making coffee, and we heard it. it just came crashing through the roof, out of nowhere. what is it? it's our ira. any idea what coulda caused this? maybe. i just sorta threw a little money here, a little money there. and i loaded up on something my dentist told me was hot. yeah. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." we are in the president and his reelection economiee's hometown essentially as they gear up for the month of november. austan goolsbee is now back in the confines of the university of chicago. he joins us on the floor. . good to see you. >> we're proud of you. >> you done good, son. >> i sm idea, throwing some people, and whether the bad data brings us back to reality? >> i think we ought to keep at least one food back in reality. there's guarded optimism, but it feels to me like they've gotten

out ahead of themselves trumpeted, it was a fairly tough number. you've seen employ very strong. and now it's better than expected. we still have a long way to get out of this. >> when retail sales are posting six handles for february and claims are coming down, and starts are good, is this all because winter was nonexistent? >> here in chicago, people are cruising up and down michigan avenue in february, and it's 55 degrees, i think there's a component to that, but i don't think that -- there are still severity -- we've had lots of --

with almost no household formation. and so a lot of that self-correcting still is still in there, until the housing market comes back, that's going to continue to be a drag. normally construction at least is a third of a recovery, and that probably will not be for a while. the state, local and federal government numbers were big negatives on the gdp, so the overall is hard to see how you get an up side from that. >> i was chatting with rick about impact prices. rick, you have a question? >> listen, if governments are cutting back and states have to run balanced budgets there will be a lot of employment and it would affect the economy. in the end, we're pumping up a

tire that has a leak, when you stop pumping, the tire goes back down. it's a reality. >> in what you could do is get the private sector stood up and growing robustly and -- that's what you want, i think that's what everybody wants. >> i think we're in agreement. i'm saying normally -- you would have a significant chunk like what we have seen coming from investment, increased exports, and the government would be at around zero. many of these are negative. >> you're a teacher, and if you had to pose -- if i gave you a

test and my question was this -- knowing that you have to prime the pump to get the private sector going, but you want to keep that stimulus, where balanced budgets and things cause -- what if i told you the economy isn't going to heal enough to get productive for three or four years, what if you can't continue to prime the pump. you have to live with that reality. >> and apparently the president's message will be that america is back. >> when i saw the president, he said we're coming back. >> i just think we've got to come back, i do think we've got to adjust with new realities, but that doesn't thing we should have a tax-mageddon, so the -- i

think that would be a tough shot. >> i think the republicans caved, it was horrible, they raided the trust fund, that's gone. now it lives hand to mouth, and they want to step on that process, too. i think it's reprehensible. >> as long as we don't shut down the government and hit the debt ceiling. >> good times. >> austan, thank you for coming down to the floor. we'll count down the european close in a few minutes. first why the jobs picture in the u.s. might be better than you thing. when we continue. you know, typical alarm clock. i am so glad to get rid of it. just to be able to wake up in the morning on your own. that's a big accomplishment to me. i don't know how much money i need. but i know that whatever i have that's what i'm going to live within. ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm seema mody at the nasdaq, where we're still watching shares of wynn halted. interestingly enough, this is actually one of the best performers on the nasdaq 100 yesterday, when we had them release figures showing that gambling revenue came up by 22%, so we saw stocks like las vegas sands as well as wynn outperform yesterday. of course our reporter jane wells also reporting about half an hour back, saying there might be reports about a new casino being opened in macau as well.

we're watching that one very closely. carl back over to you in chicago. >> thanks very much. seema mody back in new york. the jobs picture might not be as bad as we think. kelly evans who brought us the dentist indicator earlier in the week is with us. >> hi, carl, it's not all good news, i'm sorry to say. the good news is i guess maybe we can believe the unemployment rate. let me explain. a lot of people have been worried that the drop has more to do with people leaving the labor force. well, barclays capital among the latest of firms saying the stronger trend is demographics. a lot of people are retiring. in fact, this is what's driving down the employment population ratio. there's focus on this. ben bernanke among others talking about how it might be a truer read. what we have seen is a decline from mid decade levels, down to

levels of about 64, under 64%. that bit may not sound like a big deal, but if the employment population ratio -- we could see it as high as 12%. so maybe you can believe this rate, maybe it's not about to leap back up, but the problem, though, carl, is this means everything from our po templeal growth rate to factors affecting income across the economy are significantly lower. it's a problem for making budgets meet, if you're trying to pay out pension obligation. the u.s. economy isn't quite as vital or growth isn't quite as vital, it's still a problem, even if you can't believe that unemployment rate. >> as the fed chairman said, it will be hard to bring that rate down. kelly, thanks. kelly evans back at hq. european close after a short break as we're live in chicago. don't go away. oh!

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big meeting of european leaders, further comments from draghi today. what a week it has been in europe. simon hobbs back at post 9 to wrap up the final trading session of the week. >> the ecb president suggesting this liquidity dump, the ltro, that's it for now. it's what he kind of has to say to kind of ensure there's confident that the banks have enough money. it's interesting that merkel has

also said a very similar thing today. a huge week for europe, though perhaps the equity markets have not moved as much as you might thing. a her from goldman i think is interesting. let he show you, on the three major indices we're all over the place the the utilities have done well today in europe. dollman has a note out today that suggests it is now changing its view of europe and there is no case, it believes, the risk, no central case for a sustained fall in stock markets in the next three months. it is therefore upgrading utilities from neutral to overweight. utilities in general, but you'll see how some have contained. what it's suggesting here is you

can get a yield of 6.9% on some of these utilities. they're talking potential up side. one more thing i want to tell you is where we've gone on spanish yields. this is the weekly look at the ten-year in spain. you'll notice that the yields are rising in spain at the end of the week. a real shot across the bow of the european summit over in brussels the spanish prime minister saying he won't go with a 4.4% deficit that everyone has agreed. he's breaking the fiscal compact they are signing by targeting 5.8%. that is not good news. carl, back to you. >> simon, thank you.

we've acceptibled jim bianco and diane swann, and rick santelli. he was talking about this up tick, which is making some people think, diane it won't be as easy as we thought. >> there's been a human compression. the ecb has done this back-door quantitative easing that are now bigger. and some of the spanish banks, the first thing they did was buy that sovereign debt. it was the announcement that head is the compression. >> is draghi done? >> yeah, he's going to say he's done just like bernanke said he was done, because that's what you're supposed to say.

quick word, spain announced their budget deficits, not only will they meet them, but blow way through them, forecasting a 20% unemployment rate, which is great depression numbers. that's why i think you're seeing upward pressures. >> that crazy picture on the times yet that bank employees fending off a protester. that's not the last time we'll see an image like that. >> no, it isn't. the whole thing is depressing. you can't cure generations of problematic fiscal policy, problematic spending, programs that are too generous. that's what jim said and that's the part that's going to haunt us for years. >> it really is. it's moving from a crisis, it's

a chronic illness, the incentives for europe and failure are greater than -- i mean, success is greater than failure. i think they'll 1ukd, because they have no choice. that said, boy, this is not an easy line to walk. i wish we could take more advantage on this side of the aisle or on this side of the atlantic, too. >> still, it leaves us with what iuorio called an invisible bid. and a jobs number next friday that you're looking for? what? >> probably consensus number, about 200,000, maybe a little more. as far as the invisible bid, i think a lot of that could be put into the idea that -- the ecb, the ltro, the fed flirting with maybe, maybe not.

embank of england, bank of japan, as long as they keep yield suppression and force people out the risk curve, that will keep it big on stocks. >> you were one of the first i heard to say he's not discounting this completely. don't take the idea that qe is done to the bank. >> no, you can't ever. the reality is that at the independence of the year there's a lot of things that could go work. sequestration, the cuts there kicking in and another debt cell debate? i don't even want to go near that. we're talking about major distortions to the financial markets. what happens if we don't have a selection, and capital gains going up. there's a lot of distortions out there. the mortgage market is one that the fed is clearly still worried about, and i wouldn't take it off the table that fannie mae goes out of the conservatorship

at the end of the year as well. >> i'm glad you brought that up. inchts even if i use conservative estimates to this garbage show that we call conservatorship, it's costing roughly about $1300 to $1400 for every man, woman and child, and i'm being conservative on those numbers. >> good to see all of you. diane swan and jim bianco. i think pisani has something to tell us back at the telestrator. >> thank you, bod. we had such a great morning. here's yelp. jeremy stoppleman was here. he brought his mom, all the employees. it reminds you what's great about the nyse and the floor. this is one of the biggest days of their lives. the stock price is up huge. let's take a look. priced at $15.

it has held absolutely steady here, now at $25. talk about the trading. it was what they had. it's already traded 13 million shares, to traded almost twice the float. that means a lot of velocity. >> here's the good news, the stock is at $25. bear in mind we've had other nice spots. put up groupon, priced at $20, the price talk was $16 to $18. very quickly right there, within a month, went down to about $14 has come back, but you can see here, still 19.36. still not above its initial offering. cloud computing companies, that's all the rage. demand ware. take a close look. demand ware will trade here at the new york stock exchange, and we'll have them on as soon as

they start trading here. you hear talked about the spanish debt, what was going on there, the starts are moving. the imf has said -- come out this morning and said you better help ireland. this is the face of austerity. home prices down 48% in ireland. unemployment 14.5%, and almost 50% for irish youth. more people are leaving the country at the highest levels since the 19 tl century because they can't find jobs. they need help. guys, back to you. >> bob, that's coming from a country that most people said did all sister as best as you could possibly do it. when we come back, jane wells with more on the action on wynn today, still halted just as it was starting to rally. first, though, a couple winners and losers as they're wrapping

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selling higher? oil at 110 and beyond. we're tracking a potential surge, what it could mean for the markets next week. the lin-sation. that's next. back to carl and "squawk on the street" in chicago q, i wish i was there with you, man. >> yeah, we would do some damage. jane? >> carl, an hour and 20 minutes later we're finding out what happened. the company filed an updated 8-k saying the gazetting of the land contract was filed by mistake by the company's agent. the filing was not authorized by the company. the contract has not been gazetted -- i'm apologize, i'm not sure what that means. that came at around 9:40

eastern, that mistakenly filed. -k saying wynn had reached an agreement for a second casino operation there on a 51-acre piece of land which would be very beneficial for the company, of course. 1/3 now saying that was filed by mistake. it has not been gazetted, and i'll let you figure out what that means. >> jane wells in los angeles, covering the wynn story for us. thanks. across the country one of the largest counterfeit goods operation has been uncovered. eamon javers has more on that story. hi, eamon. >> some of the nation's top luxury brands were allegedly affected in this massive global counterfeiting and smuggling scheme that the feds say they unraveled making arrested. here are the details. about 26 people have been

charged. if the goods had been real, they would have been about $325 million on the street. ugg, timberland, nike, burberry, gucci, lacoste, coach, polo and louie vuitton, and they're calling it one of the largest counterfeit goods operation ever charged, and they'll have a -- they're going to bring us details. getting all those profits back to the folks that originated this scheme originally back in china, carl. >> it's a huge, huge business, and that is a big find. we'll look forward to more on that, eamon. when we come back with "squawk on the street," the former chief of bb & t, john

allison talking about the state of the economy, banks jobs and a lot more. this is "squawk on the street." we're live from the pits of the cme in chicago. ♪ my kind of razzmatazz all that jazz ♪ ♪ each time i leave chicago [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles,

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ritz been confusing week of economic data. i want to talk with john allison, the former chairman and ceo of bb & t, currently a professor at wake forest, and member of job creators alliance. hi joins us from washington. good to see you. >> good morning. good morning. >> where is your head in terms of the numbers we're getting and looking ahead to the latter half, and into the second half. is this something sustainable near year end. >> i think it's good news we're having some kind of economic recovery. the bad news is it's dramatically weaker than it

ought to be in a recession/recovery cycle. we're driving much slower job growth or gtp growth than would be normal. the iron,is we've spend trillions that's actually counterproductive. we're worse off physically and at the same time have a worse outcome. we have a very resilient entrepreneurial economy that's actually overcoming government obstacles to job creation. >> how much do you think can we really divorce the strong numbers, the auto sales yesterday, how much of that is just the fact that it was -- and people felt comfortable leaving their home to go check a core on the lot. >> i think it's a big deal. the weather is unusually good. we haven't had the tradition at bad weather that slowing

economic activity. >> i think it's dangerous not only are they being intentionally massive tax increases, and they don't see any plan to deal with that. there's a lot of fear even in companies doing okay in terms of investing and creating jobs. there's just a cautiousness that's not traditional. >> i want your take on geithner's op-ed, he referenceses hi wife who said, what happened to all the people calling and begging you for help, now criticizing regulators and policy. as he says, some people are suffering from a bit of amnesia. how much leeway railroad willing to give him?

>> we didn't ask for help. we got it whether we liked it or not. he forced t.a.r.p. on us, and the price has been enormous. it's classic. a few firms do something bad and you punish the whole industry, and literally today bb & t, and every commercial bank we're not making loans we ought to make to small businesses. we're not helping people we would ordinary help, because the regulatory onslaught continues. it's all big companies. the credit standards are so high, small companies are having a hard time accessing capital. >> i think geithner kind of forgets, personal experience i tried to talk to them as it was unfolding. they wouldn't talk to the

healthy banks, so kind of selective memory on his part. >> some have argued that this morning, even as he tells people to remember the crisis, which as i said earlier this morning, it's kind of like remember the alamo in some ways. i appreciate your insight, john. have a great weekend. >> thank you. a lot more to come from our home in the second city. in honor of us being here, yelp's ipo and how close it is to lunchtime, the top five yelp-iest restaurants here. coming in at number one, kuma's corner. "squawk on the street" back in a second. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

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we're keeping a close eye on shares of wen today. they are scheduled to just start trading now. of course, stock has been shrouded in a flurry of news regarding some investors. we'll keep a close eye and see where it goes. it was halted just as it started to rally. in the meantime, here with ira

harris, rick santelli on the floor of the cme. it's been a great hour. i hope you have is back. especially in currencies, we're doing this documentary on costco. i was talking with one of their buyers who wanted to know, give me the lay of the land on the euro, because everybody could use some visibility. >> i'll weigh in quickly. here's the expert here, but my opinion, the snoozer trade will be the euro versus the dollar. if you want to have fun, do a cross trade with the yen in it. whether you look at the canada yen or dollar yen, the opera tiff term for why those trades are good is weakness showing up in the yen, and why the japanese have a lot of problems right now. >> rick, they've had those problems and now have taken a different test, they changed their policies. remember us?

they want to be a currency again, too. come and sell us, so they started that policy, which the euro will probably go lower there, too. the more we see from them, you know what, you've got to boost, but now the euro is back into a full carry concept. the people will use it. it's not necessarily a bad thing for europe. all currency values are relative. there's a lot of bat things still. >> if i told you oil would remain high for the last six months -- >> i hope canada, because canada is just -- >> and the yen. >> and if we ever see mexico get out of its way. you know, right now it's a closed sector because of the constitution of 1938. if mexico really starts to attract, starts to attract foreign investment, look out. >> it would be nice if the economy moved on oil versus

contraband. >> absolutely. >> so when you talk about euro weakness, can you be more specific? you got targets? >> you know we've been down to the 127, i think we'll see a good test of that, we may well see the 118. that would not surprise me, especially when i look at the -- some are say that's backs the bank market is feeling fixed. that puts them right in line with the carry. now they're really right with the u.s., so we've got the yen, and we've got the euro. more importantly, i'm going to watch the gold and euro chart and gold/yen as really indicators not so much dollar per se, but watch those charts that will tell us if we're full bloom on the yen and euro. >> i call those the ron paul trade. you've got to hold up a coin of silver while you say it. walk us through some of the data for next week.

>> i think there's two data points i'm going to be watching. the adp and bls on friday. the labor side is so complicated to handicap at a time when politics is the running high. and the poster child for doing better or not doing better at least has been jobs. i personally think it's energy prices. i will continue to pay attention to the adp, but i this i in terms of friday's number, i'm not giving up and will hammer home every time. i want to be the total number of people with jobs actually go up. thoughts? >> you know, i think the number -- the greatest number for the stock market would be a 300,000 nonfarm with the jobless rate jumping up to about 8.7. >> which means we're bringing people in. >>