tv Fast Money CNBC March 5, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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that'll do it for "closing bell." thanks for being with me tonight. follow me on twitter and on google plus. have a great night. i'm melissa lee. will ecofriendly pickup trucks pick up. and weighs in with the wlatest on compressed natural gas as an alternative on gasoline. plus i'm sure you wonder what guy adami does in his free time. i sure do. let's see what he and spike lee has in common. this is "fast money." let's start trading. get straight to the china demand story. we were greeted with the china gdp forecast down to the lowest forecast since 2004. and this credit suisse report with it.
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>> the people's national congress going on in china does make for headlines. i think there kouk positive ones to get out of this. there's no question that china in the last four or five years had front loaded a lot of their commodity requirements domestic consumptions what they've always been targeting. i don't agree at all. i think the cycle continues to go forward here. they have roughly $9 billion alone just power grid in the next five years. got roughly 400 in terms of subway systems and roadways. they've got significant amount that they need to spend on the social housing. it's not going to be acansian style. wemp is what the market had wanted. it's not your father's chinese stimulus. it's a softer, more focused kind. but china, copper demand is up
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11% year to date year over year. i do think china is going to be slower and probably less of a place where you can guarantee them essentially smoothing through the pump. >> they're not necessarily saying that demand is over or there's going to be a crush in demand or anything. they said it peaked. >> and the estimates out there are looking for this deficit in copper. it doesn't take much of china demand decreasing to get you through the surplus in copper. it's more of a perception issue. they're not going to use as much of it. the infrastructure projects, a lot are on the transmission part out there. doesn't mean the world has changed. it just means things are a little different. >> 7.5% gdp indicates that things are slower.
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in terms of the housing program you mentioned. a five year program which lasts to 2015 to put the housing on the market in china. that's a lot of housing. that might be considered a boom. >> i think it definitely is. the other part of this is sme stz are 60% of gdp. they have been underserved. there's a lot of lending going into the domestic consumption. i do believe this is going to be positive and lead to export amount. >> due to the export driven economy to a domestic economy, that should bode well one would think, for shares of brands heavy in china. >> that's been the story for young brands. but i don't think it's over. but i do think it's a bit expensive here. >> it is. >> a little bit. i don't own it anymore. but this seems to be intact.
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>> obviously a story we've talked about for a long time is yum. the chart is more parabolic than a mcdonald's. the mcdonald's move higher has been more orderly. you've had corrections along the way. with yum, you've had a couple of the last two or three years. so maybe it is getting a little extended here. but it's still a fantastic story. 66.5-ish, the stock closed. you can't initiate in a long position here. it's probably prudent at this point to at least take something off the table. and look for a pullback to the low 60 ds. >> if you want a picture, move away from the areas that are highly dependent on that growth. a couple things i did is throw away ewf. ewi, that will suffer just as much as if not more if you're on the trade. i sold that short.
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then watch tonight the australian national bank has their central bank meeting tonight. and we'll get some more news out of that. >> what are the expectations? >> unchanged. a lot of people are saying unchanged for the rest of the year now which i'm not sure i agree with. >> let's move to today's buzz kill. shares of stock taking a hammer today. patriot, oxford resource. thooss are huge declines. the thinking is with the decline of natural gas, it'll take away the demand for keel. >> it hurts the coal guys who have only been under pressure. punctuated by china news. this is no surprise. coal prices have been under a lot of pressure. said it on the show last week. so the demand side of the whole picture i think is changing.
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one more name that's up. for everyone that felt like this was a stimulus inspired rally, it really hasn't been and there's a lot of names despite the fact that our indices look okay have been torched over the last month and the material sector is that. >> and you mention owens. talked about the headwinds in the steel stock. they reported a terrible fourth quarter i think on the but if you're looking for something to trade against. we traded down to 31 and a dime today. if nothing else, we talk about levels to trade against. that provides you one today. this stock it looks as though if we break through 30.5 this has a
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35 handle on it. >> as these companies come and cut their production forecasts, do you think that things can get better? >> yeah. it could. but you want to stick with the bigger names like a btu. so a lot of these smaller names could be financially challenged in this. last week i tried to short the coal in the coal etf and e couldn't get a borrow because nobody would create the shares to lend to me. they were afraid of some of the underlyings in the etf. i don't think you can go out and buy it. if you're going to believe that type of story. >> do you know which particular stocks are the red flags. >> the ones that popped in my name wisconsin jrcc. i believe that got downgraded. nobody had said to me. >> this is the flipside of a natural gas story. be more liquid. it's easier to do. to expect the same trade you want to do. >> somewhat. yes. actually, on the natural gas
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side looking more like suburban propane. that way you get the residential conversion. >> let's move to our next trade. >> the question we have today is is it the calm before the storm? today president obama met with benjamin netanyahu. there's a lot of trader chatter out there sort of saying we're setting up right now if there isn't a the supply disruption. it's priced in at this point. >> of course we are. and if you look at the spec long, we're seeing lels we haven't seen in 18 months. everything else we said on the show is people concerned about the source of demand. we've seen this in the d.o.e. numbers. there's been major destruction in the u.s. so i think that your oil short
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plays and if you look, you've seen the oil producers in other parts of the world already roll. look at the chinese producers and the names in brazil. the only names in the em world are -- you went into an election over the weekend. i would be opportunistic there. and i think you could see some to follow. >> along the same lines. >> we talk about susoro and flagged the 52-week high made late october. again, we talked about maybe taking a short off the back of that. now you see it down today. that may be a name you want to lean into. maybe all the froth is now out of the name. again, you're always looking for trading opportunities. i think we flagged it last week. it appears to be working now. >> scott nations, what are you seeing in the oil trade? >> we certainly see some integrated options getting
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bought. play volatility in these names is cheap. if you want to play this, the way to do it and find your risk is to buy options. for oil in general it was interesting today was a bit higher. while so many other commodities just got crushed. whether it was copper or gas. i think that shows there is concern. supply disruptions are a problem for our economy. if oil is higher because of demand, that's a completely different story. >> great point. >> real quick. there's a merrill lynch refining conference tomorrow that might see interesting things come out. keep your eye on that. >> next trade here. gm will introduce natural gas pickup trucks. the average price of cng is under 2 bucks. it is a solution to gasoline and
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could fuel the u.s. economy enough to try cng powered vehicles himself. steve mueller, the ceo of southwestern energy which produces 4% of the gas in the united states. pleasure to have you with us. >> it's great to be here. >> how many stations are there right now and what do you see as the potential there for opening more stations? >> well, we are part of three stations in arkansas. and there are 950 stations. only 400 are open to the public. >> only 400 are open to the public. i'm curious because as gm, most of these are going to be fleet vehicles. they have predictable routes. they know where they're going to be and they're able to fuel. what's it take to get a vehicle maker or get the consumer -- i mean, it's like the chicken or the egg. if there's demand there, people will buy the cars. but if they won't, the filling
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stations are there. what will it take? >> i think it's going to be a combination of several things. we're taking a leap that we're giving away cars to some employees so they can determine how it works. the other part, we've done a study and for about $18 billion which is not that huge of a number, you can put enough cng stations in the united states to touch over 70% of the population. there's ways around the problem. it's going to take a bit of time. on the other hand, it's a great fuel. and a great potential for our country. >> is there any government plans or subsidies that would help make it more viable, economically to have a critical mass of stations put in place? >> well, certainly there's already eight states. texas has the texas triangle. there's 33 other states this year will have some kind of
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legislation. it's starting to kick on at the state level. there were incentives at the federal level. those are going for renewal right now. we could see more at the federal level as well. >> sir, forgive me for this question. is it even viable for existing automobiles to be converted over to cng? or is that out of the rem of possibility? >> it takes a certain kind of engine. the epa has to certify the engine. as long as it's certified, it's viable. that's what we're doing now. we've converted over 150 pickups in the field. what we gave away was vehicles that were converted. what you do is convert the vehicle. it's putting in a tank, a regulator, and changing out the injector. it's simple to do. >> who's behind gm on this? gm actually, give them credit despite they've gotten criticism for the volt. cng is another thing they're bringing to the table. who is behind them and could we
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see more people jumping in? >> certainly gm's doing it at factory level. i think you'll see chrysler do it. honda has a cng vehicle they've had on the market for a year now. and there's several different engines and models that you can convert yourself or have converted also. there's 12 to 15 models in the united states. if you look at other places in the world, europe and the far east, there are hundreds of models. it's a matter of bringing the technology into our country and starting that buildup. just like with electric cars. >> it's brian kelly. we had a stat up that said cng costst about $2.11 a gallon while regular gas is going for $3.70, we'll call it. how is the mileage for that? is it one for one? >> no difference at all on the mileage. as a matter of fact, the engine -- because the fuel is cleaner, the engine actually lasts longer and the horse power is exactly the same.
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so you're getting the full benefit of that $1.50 or in the case of arkansas, there's over $2 difference. >> i'm wondering how long you think natural gas will stay at that low considering that you are intensely working on the brown dense which is your first oil well in arkansas. had disappointing production results recently. you're saying the two other wells will produce more than that. that should be good. but it seems like you're hedging your bets so to speak with oil. >> well, i wouldn't say our results are disappointing. we'll just see how that plays out in arkansas. but when you think about natural gas, it's good for the economy. it's good for the country to have it at a low price. certainly i think where it's at today it's probably too low for the industry. we'll be in that range. we could have the best of both worlds both for us as a producer and for the economy.
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we're looking forward to that. >> until the levels reach in the next year and a half, will they help offset the feeling because of low gas prices? >> certainly the oil price is a lot higher on an engine equivalent than gas. any time you have an oil project, you go after that. >> got to leave it there. thanks for joining us. hope to see you again soon. steve mueller, the ceo and president of southwestern energy. >> in terms of the stock, in my opinion valuation to me is rich here. 18 times-ish forward earnings. you can own marathon at eight times forward earnings with 2% dividend. i love the story. if you want to play, i would rather own. >> they are cheap. i mean, these guys have been trading 26, 27. if you get the fall through from cng or the wells they're
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drilling that they claim are still exciting, this is a stock really on the technical basis. this is where you have to watch the levels on a lot of these names. broader sentiment want to trade them down. >> can you invest in the cng story today. >> you can but navistar is the way to do it. they have to convert trucks into natural gas burning engines. and also clean energy. that's another way to play it. >> we're going to take a break. up next, two big movers in the after-hours session. and we're looking at apple's big event on wednesday. more "fast money" straight ahead. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future. how they'll live tomorrow.
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the ceo let the cat out of the bag at a conference on thursday when he said he was open to all possibilities. strategic alternatives to increase shareholder value. the news is official now. they have retained advisers for mww and it's up sharply in the afteryou are h after-hours session. >> we have to say of course we're open. hiring someone to do it is significant. >> meantime also watching skull candy. at about 8%. >> what? >> i know you've never heard of this stock, guy. >> skull candy? >> they're the headphones. cfo is going to resign at the end of the month. the cfo is key to bringing the company public. >> is he having a hearing issue? you shouldn't put those things in your ears. it's true. it's not good for you. >> any headphones?
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>> so jammed in your ear? >> skull candy. i don't know nothing about it. >> news of the resignation of the cfo. meantime, moving to the next trade. 200 bucks a share for the first time ever. ever. so i turn to you. >> yes. >> expensive? not expensive? >> not unfairly priced. we are out of it by now. we held it for a long time. they've done a great job. i don't know. there's other tech names that haven't participated as much as big blue in the last year probably. i wouldn't be shorted for sure but i'm out. >> sometimes people don't think they have the business to compete. >> a microsoft. big, big blue chip names like that haven't participated as much. the multiple isn't as high. we have money there instead.
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>> the market continues to reward for their visibility which nobody has close to ibm has. maybe it's stretched valuation weiss, people have been talking about it being stretched since it was $150 stock. it's harder to jump in at $200.50. but it continues to outperform. >> and it's got a dividend. >> 15 times earnings is not particularly attractive to us. it's not a name we would own at this valuation relative to itself. >> let's hit some options action now. scott nations, you're looking at pandora. big move today ahead of earnings tomorrow. >> that's right. they announced after the close tomorrow they've got an upgrade today who says the ipad, the tablet would be a boost. 16 was just a brick wall last autumn. so i want to use options to get bullish here. i wanted to find my risk.
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the way i would do that is to buy the march 15, 17 call spret. this out of the money calls are fairly expensive. i can pay 60 cents for this spread. that's paying $1 for the 15 call. collecting some on the 17 strike call. even though we're long at the money strike. that's just a great relationship. >> thanks for that trade. get every friday at 5:00 and follow the show on twitter to get updates. coming up next, the head of a pension fun is looking for returns. the head of the texas teacher retirement system is next.
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there are two bigplaye bigplayershere. the only one you can own is sutherbys. i love this company in that the competitive dynamic is fascinating. >> that was karen last month getting bullish on sotherbyes. sharply lower. >> the next day there was an article that it took a backup. the expenses were definitely high and high on the street. a lot was spent in asia which i think they need to do. the story is no different to me than it was last month or whenever that was. it is a long-term dynamic. global wealth creation around the world and are collecting.
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i'm still long. >> did you maintain your position? >> i would have bought and i didn't. i missed it. then i didn't chase it. but i am long every share i was going into that. >> they sell that munch painting yet? >> no. that's in may. >> are you going to stake y spot. >> that was ripped off. art theft? go figure. >> meantime, it is time for "fast money" portfolio segment where long-term investing means the volatility of today's world. no one fund has decided to make a big bet now has decided to make a big bet on private equity. senior managing director for the teacher retirement system of texas. it's great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> just to be clear, the fund itself is about $110 billion in total expose sure is what at this point? >> 110 point.
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of $40 billion. $25 billion is invested. another is committed and not called yet. >> your portfolio has outperformed the s&p 500, as i understand it. it was 20% higher in fiscal year 2011. do you feel there is an absolute pressure, a need to be outside of stocks, outside of bonds for a pension fund. but there's no other way to keep up with obligations. we're long-term. we're liquid and large. not only do we outperform in one year, in five years and ten years. our private equity portfolio was up over five years. i think the s&p was about flat. up 13% over ten years. again the s&p was up about 2%. sko we need to hit an 8% return, we have capital. we have long-term. we can make these long-term bets
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with our partners that payoff over the long-term. and the partnership than investing in a fund. where you actually go hands on as owners. not just sort of on the side of investors. can you explain why you would take that next leap and how much of commitment that is. >> we believe in partnership. so we share our best ideas. they share their best ideas. when typically called a co-investment or principal investment. that can be done with no fees. so that can add 20% to 30% to our return off the top without having any fees. >> the entire pension in the world is genius. i'm a hedge fund manager and it's nice to see. but how do you guys get through the intransparency. it's still such a small part.
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most of your stuff is investments you could liquidate quickly. we're in a world made up. i'm sure you spent tons of time on due diligence. how do you get comfortable owning companies that you're locked in. >> first let's talk transparency. we have worked with ilpa and pria. to increase transparency, increase sbretss. the first and foremost decision we make is picking our partners. we've got to pick people we trust, have confidence in, and believe in. and they're very good at what they do. better than we would be at buying companies. so we focus on that. we get good governance from them. as far as liquid, we don't need liquidity. we paid out about $4 billion last year. we don't need liquidties. we can get paid for locking up capital over the long-term. so our typical private equity
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investment would last five to seven years. we get paid for that. our returns show it. >> when you say you get paid for that, do you actually get to negotiate aside from the coinvestors do you negotiate fees? >> yes. >> how much better? >> a lot of better. again, we've outperformed. we've doubled their returns over the five year and ten year period. >> quick question. commodities are part of your portfolio. do you own the actual commodities? or are you more in the etf world? >> we do not take delivery. it's not allowed as part of our constitution to take delivery of the commodities. >> in terms where you see the best opportunities at this point, you said you share ideas with your partners. so what's attractive these days? >> what i like on real estate, i love multi-family. if you look at the demographics
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and job growth. let's buy locally, let's borrow globally. let's buy in markets that have better than the average job growth over the next five to ten years and borrow these low interest rates. if we can lock in five, ten years money and wait for unemployment to go from 8.5 to 6.5 to 4.5, we will make money at real estate. and office space is a place that is misunderstood right now. it's way oversold. we like the idea of going into growth markets and buying value at office where we can buy value. on privacy equity, we like being able to drive performance. the decade of financial engineering is over. it's now about blocking, tackling. driving revenue. hiring people. figuring out how to run a business better. we feel like we have our premiere list who are great at driving businesses and producing returns.
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not just through financial stoougs and buying more money. >> ore sectors that are attractive at this point? >> as far as private equity? >> yes. >> we're looking at europe. we think europe may be mispriced because of the debt. we don't know. we've put a task force together. another we like to look at is single family. you've got 12 million single family households that will need to be moved through the system. >> how do you manage them on scale? >> we don't know. no one's done it yet. i have a long background in the operating business of running rental housing. so i think we're well suited to be ahead of our peers in looking at this space. but this economy will not take off until we do something about this single family issue. >> thanks a lot for coming by. we appreciate it. next on "fast," are gold stocks about to bounce higher? tim will tell us if he's ready to buy. much more "fast" straight ahead.
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welcome back to "fast money." we are live at the nasdaq market site in new york city's time's square. we also will respond to the tweets. @coachella palms. is scf a buy at these levels are more pain to come? >> it's interesting. it's 7.5 times earnings. the chart does scare me. and i think we continue to see a lot of rockiness in the fertilizer space. we're seeing demand. we see buyers stepping back from the market. i don't need to buy this stock. a lot of the core buyers are stepping away. fantastic company. this is part of a food trade supercycle i believe in. just not here. >> @alamarash says what's up
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with wynn? part of this was a downgrade of sam out of suisse. >> right. it caught up with the idea that china is slowing. you have a downgrade of las vegas. and it gets caught in the cross hairs here. 135 in the next ten to 20 days? it could. you'll have to see the market. i'd buy a third of it here and wait for momentum. >> let's move to the next trade here. the euro rising. it's a dollar more after saying they'll participate. will the market buy the optimism? let's get your money in motion trade from amelia bourdeau. and of course, big factor in terms of that and how the euro trades. what are you expecting? >> sure. i don't think there'll be much out of the ecb meeting. they're supposed to keep on hold. the press conference following the ecb meeting in which there
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will be the economic forecast and outlook for inflation, that may have some up or downside surprises. it's hard to tell. more importantly it's the take on the side for the greek debt swap. that will have more of an effect on the euro this week. because it's hard to time, we have thursday. of who's participating in the greek debt swap. stay clear of the euro this week. we also have u.s. payrolls on friday too. >> all right. you're looking to sell aussie/kiwi. why that cross? >> that reached a little bit above the figure. it offers an attractive to enter the position. both the reserve bank of australia and new zealand have a policy meeting this weekend.
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there shouldn't be any economic effect. it's more of a valuation perspective. i think aussie right now is overvalued. >> walk us through the levels here. >> near the current levels trading 1.2990 there. i'd look for a move to 1.2750 and i put up a stop at 1.3030. >> and what does the ration down to the gdp have on your decision to sell aussie/kiwi. >> overnight we've seen a reaction. you mentioned at the national peoples congress it was announced that the gdp would be 7.5% for china. it was expected, but we saw a selloff in aussie and asian equities overnight. so i think most of the reaction has already taken place. but going forward certainly if we do see further slowing in china data, that would weigh. we also have an important read
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on wednesday for aussie. we have to see how that comes in. >> all right. thanks a lot for 234e trade. of course you can get more currency strategies on "money in motion" every friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern here on cnbc. we were just talking australia an new zealand but another country caught our eye today. that was slovakia. they could build a bridge dedicated to the one and only chuck norris. the named walker texas ranger star is the favorite to win a public vote that connects slovakia to austria. chuck norris is carrying 74% of the votes so far. sources say if he wins, a pilot is in the works bridge walker slovakia ranger. >> who else was in the running? >> i guess not anybody good. >> chuck is going for a red just for men beard there. >> you want the beard to match
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here i think. >> you would the beard to match the -- yeah. i'm going to stay away from that. i love chuck. he's a big part of my youth. >> enough to name a bridge after him? >> yeah. bought a couple of his weight training things. >> didn't help. >> oh. >> what body of water does this bridge cross? >> i have no idea. >> that would be helpful to know. >> a river. >> yeah. but which -- a river? >> charles? >> okay. >> somebody's telling me in my ear. anyway. next on "fast," is there trouble lurking behind the etf? much more "fast" ahead. ttd# 1-800-345-2550
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ttd# 1-800-345-2550 a full range of financial products, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 even if they're not ours. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 and we listen before making our recommendations, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so we can offer practical ideas that make sense for you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck, and see how we can help you, not sell you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 this president has failed us as a result of his failures. it's taken much longer for this economy to reboot. 8% is not the new normal. this president has a long way to go to deliver on the promises that the american people expect. >> all right. that is from larry kudlow's
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sit-down with mitt romney. for the entire video, tune into the "the kudlow report" tonight. it is time for the volatility play book. that's more of a problem than you might think. joining us to explain is the president of et analytics. why is it a problem? >> yeah, sure. it's a fairly significant problem. volatility etfs and etns essentially own the entire market for volatility futures. they dictate essentially the pricing of outdating facility. they're bidding up those outdated process. which mean these products essentially always lose value. and, you know, it raises a few minor concerns in the broader market as well. >> scott nations, i'm sure this is an issue you have been following in terms of inflating the prices potentially. >> that's right. matt is preaching to the choir. i have a question. are you -- do you have a beef
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with volatility as an asset in general? or is it the way these products are constructed and the way the vix is constructed? >> let's say it's -- i guess i have a beef with both. they're terrible products as an asset class. you think about vxx, the first one launched two years ago, it's down 94%. that's not good for anyone. the way they're constructed, they are futures and futures off the possibility. the big problem is this is a tiny niche market that these etfs and etns have exploded so that they own the entire market. they are not just the tail wagging the dog. they're the whole dog here. a market playing on itself. >> all right. the bottom line here is for the average investor. stay away from any of these products? >> that's right. don't touch them with a ten foot pole. maybe for short-term traders they have a roll there. if you're an investor, whatever kind of investor, i don't see the use.
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tech data is all coming up at the top of the hour. if you're a basketball fan and knicks tickets are coming up, jeremy lin were both at the columbia harvard basketball game. they weren't the only hot celebs at the game. doing the color congressmen tating. take a listen. >> it's an exciting atmosphere tonight. obviously, a huge game for harvard. they should win, but i think it's important for them to take the crowd out early. >> that is unbelievable. matt, who is your buddy, by the way? >> marty mcfly. >> they're geniuses, these guys. he's an undergrad.
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he's writing his dissertation, his thesis, but this guy is brilliant. there we are again. they figured they'd have me on. great job by the crimson, playing penn, i believe, tomorrow, for the ivy league championship. winner goes to the tournament. >> isn't that great? look at that. isn't that fantastic? that's tommy. met tommy after the game. working now. >> spike doesn't care. >> is that correct? you played the tuba in the band? >> i played the tuba. the french horn. look at that. >> do you know what you're talking about? >> he's kind of shaking his head. >> oh. it was fun. >> wow. amazing. >> harvard in the tournament. they're going to win one game in the tournament. then they'll fall on the round of 32. >> i thought we were going to
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it is time now for the final trade. scott nations kick it off. >> i agree with matt hogan. all these vix-based products stink. but a good volatility product could be great for investors. >> i was going to talk about gold but i was preempted by chuck norris. 6.5 times next year. the gold stocks, if you'd see them back 18 months they're basically trading in a 20% range. you're near the bottom of that range. you're buying here or 2%. i would put half on now and buy the other half days from now. >> precision cast parts. had a series of moves lower on this lower trend higher. i think we're in the midst of one now. spent the rest of the day rallying. i think we're in the midst of this longer uptrend. >> sad to say i got to sell li
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