broadcom, seagate all up 2%. >> are you going to buy one? >> i don't know. have to see whether it's in the budget. >> market's higher at this hour. dow bouncing back by about 70 points, nasdaq by 24 and the s&p by 8. thanks for joining us. that will do it for "power lunch." >> i'll see you in a few minutes because you're doing "closing bell." i'll see you then. "street signs" begins now. have a great afternoon. and welcome to "street signs." it is literally the apple of so many investors' eyes. it's the biggest company in the world, but is apple's run a bad thing for the overall market? we'll investigate. do you think stocks can rise another 30% this year? well, your wall street guest does. is he crazy? or crazy like a fox? he's here. and george thurgood sang the song. one bourbon, one shot, one beer. how about one bourbon, one tattoo and one beer? we're going to explain what that odd trifecta means for your

money. i promise, mandy. >> okay, brian. good afternoon. dow getting back a nice chunk of yesterday's drop. blue chips up 0.5% today and up about 5% year-to-date. similar move high today on the s&p 500 index up 7.5% so far this year. the nasdaq meantime jumping nearly 1% today. and over 12% for the year. yeah, the big outperformer in large part thanks to this little apple. apple stock up nearly -- let me see up a little bit there on the announcement of the new ipad. check out this stat of the day courtesy apple ceo tim cook he says 76% of revenues came from the ipod, iphone and ipad last year. just staggering. brian and i will be debating the apple phenomenon shortly. mary thompson in for bob pisani at the nyse. rick santelli at his usual perch on cme because you are

irreplaceable, but mary, not a bad rally. seems as if we have a very risk-on market today. >> that's certainly the case today, mandy, just as you said. couple things contributing to today's bounceback. first of all the adp jobs report in line with expectations, optimism enough greek debt holders will agree to a debt swap paving the way to a second bailout. and a report from "the wall street journal" outlining possible options for qe-3. all of that contributing to the gains we've seen today. sector leaders throughout the day have been financials. they've been stronger. industrials have also been stronger. consumer discretionary stocks as well as tech stocks although recently given up some of their stronger gains. leading industrials, ge, we've been talking about it all day, the company basically providing very optimistic outlook. growth in the emerging markets should be stronger for the company than in asia in 2012. lastly, we just want to touch on the apple effect.

i'm sure we'll talk about it all day. apple off its highs of the session. its suppliers as well as some of the carriers, at&t and verizon which will be the carriers for the ipad, they have been holding fairly steady throughout the session. mandy, back to you. >> thank you very much, mary. rick, what are you seeing in the equities risk-on market? what's happening in terms of risk in the bond pits? >> it's hard to get away from the relationship of what's happened to equities over the last couple of days, specifically the messiness of what's going on in greece. and, yes, it's messy. it's bureaucratic. it takes time. and in the end there's plenty of issues like spain, portugal, italy, that could be so much bigger. so the messy factor really weighing on the psyche of traders. if you look at a chart, look at the darling. the darling's been things like high-yield corporate securities. if you look at that etf and how it's turned down, it's a function of how equities have been impacted by energy prices and europe, you can clearly see that the price is going down,

the spreads have widened out a bit. the higher yield is definitely a big positive, but the strategy of what you think in equities goes a long way into price what you think of the securities that are derived from those corporate prices. back to you. >> rick, thank you so much. >> all right. one of our market guests is making a rather bold call. he says, you know, forget the day-to-day market gyrations, the s&p could end up 40% higher by year's end. chief investment strategist at pension partners is with us as is jack calf ri, analyst at jpmorgan private bank. michael, i thought you said the s&p could be up 40% this year, but that can't be right. >> why not? that happened in 2003. happened in 2009. s&p up 67%. let's talk about the similarities here between 2012 and 2003 and 2009. in all cases, central bank pair noi ya over a continuation of a recession over a possible lehman-like event, 2008, created

so much money printing and overreaction to pen ten shlly to everything going on that as a result you have environment of reinflation. good environments for risk assets. >> let's talk about what's different. they both came off really bad times before that. last year wasn't great, but it wasn't a disaster du jour. >> if you are a u.s. investor, yes. it was a bad year for investors in germany markets. a very bad year. we're talking about conditions here. the conditions favoring risk assets are rising inflation expectations. >> mind you, have had an incredibly good run so far since october of last year. so 20% plus another 40%, that's 60% off the low. jack, do you think it's a little crazy 40% higher from here? >> well, i think, i agree with the idea that central banks certainly remain risk investors' friends. i agree with the comment that ultimately what made some of those great years in 2003 and 2009 were really horrible years

in the years past. we've seen a 20% plus improvement in the last four months off better economic data. i think the challenge is economic data is actually not getting better versus expectations. it's basically in line with expectations if not actually missing them. that challenges the valuation improvement story. >> however, let me counter that. equity markets may not have had a horrible year in the u.s., the bond market has behaved as if we've already had a horrible year. as money reallocates away from bonds and into stocks because the federal reserve is basically telling you don't take on 10-year treasury yields at 2% because we want an inflation target of 2%, that money is a huge amount of liquidity that can run into anything risk-oriented. i understand the year prior may not have been a down year, but the markets behave like there was. >> if i want to make money in this so-called 40% upside here, what is going to lead? we have not had participation in the dow transports, the russell

2000 hasn't been rolling over but lagging in the overall market. how am i going to make money? >> financials continue to outperform. that's a key sector for the moment where as deflation anything highly levered generally does not perform that well well. >> jack, i used to feel old school. i used to believe earnings mattered. i believed a stock price was a price of forward earnings. now this fed printing environment i'm not so sure because i watch pandora and cypress, granted not the biggest companies in the world by far, but they very much disappointed last night and yet we're holding our ground. do earnings matter in this sort of, you know, as michael calls it this fed-printing chaos environment that we're in? do earnings matter at all? >> i think on any given day you can certainly find the story working well or badly based on what they reported on earnings. over time, yes, earnings matter. in fact, over time it's really

only been dividend and earnings that have driven your returns shorter term horizons, a day, a week, a month, a year, valuations matter. >> is it bothering you we're seeing analysts cutting forecasts for the first quarter? >> again, speaks to the fact we're trying to get our hands around what the right set of expectations are. look at what earnings provisions have been in the first quarter and into the second quarter feels like paper cuts. none are favorable but really hurt. i think that is a challenge. it gets back to this idea unless you believe that we should basically sell everything and buy equities, we are in that camp. we think there are challenges out there and we look to balance portfolios broad allocations to fixed income, to high yield that ultimately winds up mattering. it's basically a balancing between all the various risks out there. >> talking of the risks, michael, bottom line, you're not a per ma bear or bull, you change according to the

indicators you're seeing, what would make you change your bullish call? >> obviously there's an event that could cause a problem. a lehman-scenario. but none of that seems to be in the cards. >> i thought greece was lehman. >> that's what we've been told. number two, if you look at terms like summer crash, things i wrote about beforehand, i am an interpreter of market conditions. the conditions are clearly favoring reflags. this is an environment where it can surprise everybody. one last thing the reality markets more stimulative to the global economy than anything central banks do. >> ten seconds, do you think the worst case scenario for greece is already built in? >> absolutely. >> got it. thanks for joining us today. we're going to get you back -- >> you are. this is a man that knows hopium. >> we're going to get you back and see if we have 40% by the end of the year. >> thank you. >> on deck, apple, you've heard of them. they're a big story today. forget about the hype around the new ipad. everybody's been hyped up about the stock the last few years.

could apple's immediate eker rise? >> it's 5:00 somewhere. 5:00 in australia. it's always 5:00 in the australia. we're ready to let loose. don't go anywhere.

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as we all now know apple unveiled something called the ipad 3 with a retina display among other things. ceo tim cook made the announcement keynote address has this hd display, 4g ready and get in line, it's going fo go on sale next friday. and we know this, apple shares hit an all-time high recently, right? the stock most valuable in the world. everybody loves apple. but here's a question, could apple's immediate orric rise be a bad thing for the overall market? bear with us here. let me explain. take a look at the nasdaq 100. apple has weighted more than 17% in that index. one stock. in the s&p tech sector, apple carries a whopping 19%. the s&p tech sector accounts for nearly 1/5 of the s&p 500. important in that group as well. and we look at the overall s&p 500 it certainly plays a part in that as well. in the larger index, apple -- whoa, that's a lot of stuff going on on that screen. anyway, the point is this, apple carries a big weight inside of the overall markets. and as the stock has gone up,

the rest of the market really has not gone up nearly as much. now, you're not going to expect the overall market to go up the same amount, but here's the question we want to ask. because everybody is so focused on apple, apple this, apple that, it is the most owned by a number of the hedge funds i looked at last quarter, are we leaving other good stocks by the wayside which would hurt the overall market? let's find out. howard has actually crunched some of these numbers and he joins us. howard, the reason we wanted to do this -- i'm not taking anything away from apple. everybody loves the stock. hedge funds love it. investors love it. it's boomed. it's getting a lot of attention, but are we forgetting about other great companies? because everybody's focused on the most beautiful girl in the room. >> well, in this case apple as you said largest in the world has impact on every one of those portfolios. it's 4% of the s&p 500. little over 20% of technology. and as you said 17% of the

nasdaq. that is where it is. it's had major impact because it's moved up so much quicker. within the s&p 500 as an example it's 13% of the year-to-date gain. it's 37% of the technology gain. you really need to know what's in your portfolio and how it's impacting you. these other issues are not as much in favor. and a lot of them have not done that well. technology, best example would be that from the 2007 highs it's up 9%. without apple, it's a 5.5% loss. like it or not, apple made that group up 9%. otherwise you're in the red. >> got it. i just want to also mention very quickly that they haven't actually officially announced it's going to be called the ipad 3 and for all we know it mieg #might be called the new thing ma jig out of apple, we're all calling it the ipad 3 but they haven't said that's going to be the name. howard, from what you're saying am i to interpret even if apple went to 0 today it might have an oversized impact on the tech

sector, nasdaq 100 but not on the s&p overall. >> no. the global indices apple 1.48%. on the s&p 500 as an example for every issue closed flat today except for apple and it went to zero, okay, the index would have its worst day since august of last year, seven months ago. there were four last year that had worse. wouldn't even make the top 150 worst days of the market if apple went to zero. it's all how it's weighted and how much is it in. as you move farther down, if you went into technology as an example, you have a 20% weighting, you take it down 20%. we haven't seen a day that's done that bad in technology. so the impact the lower down you go, the more important it is. and one of the concerns is that not all portfolio managers know what's in their portfolio. apple's 20%, but at&t is over half of telecom. >> howard, this is herb

greenberg. one thing that's interesting when we get away from the indexes and we take a look at whenever we talk about earnings in any period of time. >> significant. >> that's where the significance is, right? so you almost have to say earnings for the s&p 500 ex-apple. >> right. fourth quarter, good illustration, apple averaged 3.2% of the s&p 500. okay, but it contributed 6% of the earnings. when those numbers came through, it shot the index number up. in technology while it's 20%, fourth quarter it contributed 26.7% of the earnings on there. so really, again, you need to know what's in your portfolio, how it's weighted and how it impacts you. >> what about my original point though, howard? you have a lot of pretty girls at the dance. apple may be the prettiest of them all. doesn't mean you should ignore her stepsisters, right? are people leaving good companies behind they're so just myopically obsessed with apple? >> they're focusing on apple because they're seeing the projected growth rate as well as

target price. and i've ran those numbers. and they're higher. apple continues to go on. but, yes, the other ones have to be more with growth. if technology is down 5.5% from its highs outside of apple, are those issues potential growth issues more in value there? is there value in those depressed stocks? and not getting as much attention especially when everyone's running on the bandwagon and saying apple, apple, look at the target prices. up and down the road it's nowhere but up, which is a signal in itself i guess. >> howard, thank you for joining us. folks, if the stepsisters look like you guys in high heels and wigs, i would be ignoring them. >> that would make me ru paul. i would be 6'9". >> he/she always looks pretty good. nuance is tied to apple, right? >> i don't know how many times i have to say this, careful here. nuance provide the voice recognition used by apple and lately people spreading rumors

apple acquiring nuance. i'm here to tell you no way. if it happens, i'll keep rerunning this loop all the time. the stock is up today because of the apple news, but more than that nuance announced today it's buying another in dozens of acquisitions this one in its health care transcription service. nuance is actually offering conservative guidance. >> did you also notice how little diversity there is on apple's board? >> let me tell you something -- >> you tell me something, herb. >> it's not me who noticed this. marc ben ioff says apple has all white men on stage, no women or racial diversity so far. my colleague, and i tweeted this back, said doesn't have any diversity, eight men, one woman, marc then tweeted back he agrees. >> where's the australian is

what i would like to know. >> you're sitting right here. >> on apple's board i mean. >> what else trend that made it out. just ahead on "street signs," the mr. fix-it indicator. >> and later on, bad year for goodyear. sales down 4% even as the u.s. economy is recovering. we find out why when "street signs" comes back. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about the typical financial consultation ttd# 1-800-345-2550 when companies try to sell you something off their menu ttd# 1-800-345-2550 instead of trying to understand what you really need. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we provide ttd# 1-800-345-2550 a full range of financial products, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 even if they're not ours. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 and we listen before making our recommendations, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so we can offer practical ideas that make sense for you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck, and see how we can help you, not sell you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 introducing gold choice. the freedom you can only get from hertz to keep the car you reserved or simply choose another. and it's free. ya know, for whoever you are that day.

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welcome back to "street signs." the ipad is now called the ipad. it is called the new ipad. also want to mention that the ipad 2 will be sticking around. that 16-gigabyte wi-fi only the price dropped by $100 to now $399 from $499. again, two latest headlines to repeat. the latest product, the new ipad. back to you. >> courtney, personally i prefer my apple i-thingmajig. >> that is ilame.

really. >> because you didn't come up with it first. anyway, time now for your retirement equation and also some headlines that could impact your plan. more wives are bringing home more bacon. the latest data from the bureau of labor statistics shows that nearly 38% of women earn more than their husbands. that is up 3% in just one year. a new report by aarp finds that precipitation drug costs for people 50 and over meantime rose a staggering 25% between 2005 and 2009. the study also shows that drugs -- drugs costs for chronic illnesses have nearly doubled since '05. and talk about padding your nest egg, an 81-year-old rhode island woman hits the power ball. louise white was handed a check for $336.4 million. that is the third largest solo payout in history. she says she bought the ticket at a grocery store when she just stopped in to buy some rainbow

sherb sherbet. lucky her. a solid sign for jobs in america, according to adp, the private sector of job payrolls increased by 216,000 last month. that gain was slightly about 1,000 above estimates. this is though the 25th consecutive monthly gain. the gain for investor's appetite for friday's jobs report and to get jobs going, we need companies to hire. so let's ask if they are. the ceo of snap-on tools. he joins us now. thank you very much for coming on cnbc again. are you hiring? are you one of the ones going to add to the private sector payroll numbers? >> last year we hired in the united states between -- increased our work force between 5% to 6%. i think you could say clearly we're hiring. i mean, the sales are up in the fourth quarter in last year over pre-recession levels. i think we reached pre-recession levels in the fourth quarter of last year.

this year we've been up over that level and we've been hiring commensurate to that. >> you talk with a lot of business owners and ceos, anecdotally how do they feel and you feel about the macro economic environment and how it's going to be say in six month's time from now? >> well, i think the unique thing about snap-on is we call on 300,000 small businesses. these are auto repair garages around the united states. and their numbers are very positive. as i said, our sales are up 8% to 9% and i think they're reflective of that. we like to think that some ways we invested during the recession so we're gaining share in that way with innovation and productivity and so on. but when you actually talk to the people, when you go out and meet with them, they're very positive. i think that my own view is that the positiveness is strongest at the grass roots level. the technicians and the owners of these small businesses are very positive these days. as you move up, they're a little more dogged by uncertainty associated with the coming election and so on. but they're still very positive.

>> okay. here's more of a company-specific one before we let you go, nick. we may hit 14 million auto units sold this year. is that a good thing for snap-on? if you're buying a new car, you're not maintaining your old car as much. >> i don't think it makes too much difference for snap-on. i guess in the long run if there are many new cars over many years, that could be a problem. but generally our sales do not change with the new car. we don't react to that. it generally -- the cars in the united states have aged every year since 1980. they're now over ten years old. and we see substantial growth in that. and the other opportunity is, like i said, our vans, almost 4,000 of them, don't call on release technicians. a lot of having our vans call on more they do now. and that's part of the 8% growth in the year. >> thanks for sharing your experience with us. >> up next, forget the cupcakes,

bring on the booze. we're talking beer and the bourbon boom in america. do not worry, there's a stock angle here. >> because that's what we do. and later on housing guru in the house. robert shiler is with us. why he is not betting on a recovery any time soon. "street signs" is back in two. americans believe they should be in charge of their own future.

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welcome back to "street signs" everybody. let's catch you up on the day's big headlines in today's street talk. first of all only 90 minutes left in the trading session today. and here is where the markets are standing right now. the dow is currently moving to the upside along with the nasdaq and the s&p. of course this is coming off yesterday which really was not a good day. so we're getting a little bit of a gain back. as for the apple event, it's just rwrapped up. as soon as our jon fortt is available, we'll get to him live. we're seeing movement in the tech stocks. let's get to seema mody with the latest on that. >> it's not only about apple. let's take a look at a couple of the other big movers here. starting with ciena. the network gear maker saw margins improve and operating expenses shrink for the first quarter. that stock outperforming today. retail, we had credit suisse

upgrating lululemon saying they're increasingly confident the company can sustain double-digit sales growth, raise margins and drive earnings even higher. i spoke to the analyst. interesting conversation. he says this isn't just an athletic brand, it's turning into a casual wear company. interesting perspective there. on the flip side we have to take a look at pandora. the stock falling today losing more than 1/5 of its market value as hedge fund investors sell out of the name. the street was expecting the company to beat estimates. so people piled into earnings before overlooking some of the basic issues. the stock down 24%. >> seema, thank you for that. meantime, is goodyear losing traction? that stock down more than 13% this year in what has been a pretty good overall market gain so far this year. doesn't make a whole lot of sense given both the u.s. economy and auto sales are on the rise. let's bring in president of behind the numbers. jeff, this is a company that already guided to weaker than expected volume for this year.

and you say even those numbers are too optimistic. what's going wrong? >> we think a lot of people are piling into this because it used to be a cyclical company. the way we look at it is they've closed so many tire plants over the last few years, they've closed plants in asia, latin america. they sold a tire plant that made tractor tires. i mean, these are all the bullish areas. and yet goodyear cannot make money doing this. volumes are down. margins are down across the board. >> what do they need to do to turn things around, jeff? >> i don't know that they can, to be quite honest. they have more debt now than they did five or six years ago. the pension's more underfunded. that's going to be a cash he headwind for them. they used to make all their cash flow by drawing down working capital. that's not headwind. >> jeff, it's brian. when you say i'm not sure they can turn it around, what do you mean? eventually companies turn around or they don't, if you catch my drift. >> i think that's where we're headed for this one.

>> bankruptcy? goodyear will file for bankruptcy? >> yeah. it's become a smaller company and a legacy cost from years ago it has to maintain. >> sales are way up from where they were a few years ago. >> that's inflation. look at cash flow, it still continues to erode. the debt numbers are up. they can't fund their pension. they're issuing preferred stock to raise money now. this is a company basically bleeding to death. >> okay. so if not independent survival, wla what's the alternative to bankruptcy? could it be bought by another company? >> somebody could come along and do that. they're going to do it at a much lower price. total debt almost six times ebitda. we think ebitda's a fictitious number for this company because so much cash flow has come from drawing down working capital. >> jeff, thank you so much for joining us with not very good news for goodyear. in the meantime our very own jon fortt has stepped out of the apple ipad event. jon, what did you hear? >> well, mandy, i went into a bit of a reporting frenzy

afterwards. got in the room, touch the ipad, on the way over ran into yelp ceo. got a sense of what he thinks about it. the real news here is the high resolution retina display, the a5 chip and how it differentiates from everything else out there. the app that allows you to edit photos was the standout in the pack. what apple is trying to do is present the ipad now as a content creation power house, not just a content consumption device. that could possibly threaten the pc a little bit down the line because the conventional wisdom has been if you need to create something, you need a pc. if you're going to just consume content, the ipad is good enough. >> what are people saying about the name? the new ipad. everyone calling it ipad 3 for want of a better name. what do people make of this the new ipad? >> well, didn't get a sense of what other people are making of it, but what i think is interesting is it sort of lines

up with what apple has done with the imack. they've created a category around it. traditionally people have informally designated by saying here's the size of the screen, here's what the basic design is. but they're trying to make this more of a category and less a matter of looking at a year-by-year the little tweaks in the name. which i think is interesting. might point to other things they plan to do down the line. >> bottom line, jon, you're dialed in. were you impressed? is it going to make guys like me that's got the original ipad -- i don't have an ipad 2, are we going to want to upgrade? bottom line. is it that good? >> well, i think the new capabilities here for content creators are interesting. what they had to do was make other tablets like the kindle fire look like a toy. but they're not just going after people who have already bought ipads here. they're looking at a much broader market. it's not jugs just a question of is it going to make people want

to upgrade, it's going to be is it going to make people keep wanting to buy ipads? >> it's revolutionary the new ipad with all the new producting already up there. jon fortt, thanks for bringing us that breaking news. >> well, all the leaders in energy are in houston, texas, this week for a big conference. in a moment we are going to speak with the ceo of dominion resources major power and natural gas company. the stock up 10% over the past year. down about 5% so far this year. sharon epperson live in houston. when we said in a minute we're going to speak, we mean right now. dominion's ceo joining sharon. >> that's right, brian. we're here to talk about the future of natural gas and his outlook on natural gas. it's one of the largest natural gas systems in north america, in fact the largest you have here with dominion resources. and one of the key things out of this conference is we have so much natural gas in this country, tom, why are we exporting more? you have terminal you plan to

have an export terminal, you've gotten the permit, when can we see this happen? >> sharon, nice to be with you. we have north america's largest gas storage facilities very large pipeline network that has a terminal in maryland, chesapeake bay. right now it's an import facility under long-term contracts. we have sought a permit from the department of energy -- we're seeking a permit from the department of energy to export to nonnafta countries. we received a permit to export to nafta countries. we have a great deal of interest both from european and asian customers who want to -- we would want them to sign long-term contracts to take export out. we don't own natural gas ourselves. >> no. >> and would not as a part of this transaction. so we're working with customers. and we're working with the doe to try to get the permit issued. >> what is the time line with this? how long until we see this happen? until we see the u.s. exporting? >> well, if everything goes

pretty fast -- not super fast, not slowed down, i think we would be able to export from that facility in 2016. takes a long time. they're big machines. but they can all be handled environmentally fre environmentally friendly way. natural gas is a pretty clean source of fuel. >> we're going to have to leave it there. i know you have more to talk about in terms of nuclear. hopefully we'll get some of those comments from you and have them on cnbc.com. tom farrell. >> sharon and tom, thank you very much. up next, some liquid courage in the tattoo parlor. find out who's winning the battle of the sexes for the most ink. >> and how about that shot of bourbon? jane wells is taking us to kentucky for a look at the big business of this distinctive american spirit. all energy development comes with some risk,

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all right. we're keeping an eye on netflix. here's why. there's a little bit of a change in the new ipad, and, again, folks that is the name, the new ipad, where you can pay for netflix through your itunes account. you can watch netflix through your ipad, now they can charge you through the apple itunes store. also itunes have a program where it basically recommends movies, which it kind of does through its genius thing. either way, it's all about apple fanaticism today. >> in the meantime check out t.a.p. the beer company hopes to change

all of that. in fact brewing up new drinks including coors light ice tea. yeah. they're going to also expand the roll out of a new craft beer called batch 19. herb, you want to go belly up. >> yeah. i'm actually surprised that boston beer, which is sam is not down today on this news. we had herb on the street here a few weeks ago on sam. >> we did. >> on boston beer because the analysts have been taking a look at this thing. most of its growth now is coming from its twisted tea. that's been the growth vehicle. the craft beer has been flattening out so to speak. and i think that now you see it's such a competitive space, such a niche, keep an eye on sam. >> would you try that? ice tea beer? >> absolutely. >> by the way -- >> it's a girl's drink. >> it really is, zima boy. >> i said try it. i would try it. >> you agree with this, the molson deal was quite possibly the worst merger of all time.

i'm going to throw that out. if you look at sales figures that deal is '05, i think. their sales are close to $3 billion less than in 2007. this is a company whose sales have literally collapsed over the last couple of years. and, you know when the ceos -- i remember covering the deal saying synergy and we'll be stronger together. >> look at the stock over that span of time is pretty flat. '08 sales peaked in 2007 at $6.2 billion. they ended last year -- $6.2 to $3.5 billion. maybe it's good they're throwing stuff out there. >> they've got to. >> guess that fell a little flat, didn't it? >> it did. from ice tea beer to tattoos. a new -- what? jim cramer -- here we go. >> oh, hello. >> all right. jim cramer has literally run onset. he's carrying a ka tan na.

>> the worst deal ever was when exxon bought when natural gas was incredibly high and natural gas just hit an all-time low. that's all i have to say. >> but that was more recent, jim. this deal is now seven years in. and it clearly hasn't done anything. can you give exxon at least a year or two to try to perform? >> if they would back natural gas fuel for surface vehicles, yes. but they only favor it for utilities. they don't favor it for cars and trucks. >> i'm not going to say -- listen, you and i both -- >> you and i both went to law school, right? do you remember the american rail car. california company was buying up railroads to modernize them. guess who it was? it was actually gm through subsidiary buying up railroads to rip them out to build roads. >> oh, negative. true. >> i'm just throwing it out there. >> i heard it. i said first of all i happen to be -- >> making herb very uncomfortable. >> i happen to be a coors

light -- how are you, herb? can you believe this? it's the man with two heads. the man with two brains. >> look at the sales number. >> no. i don't like that deal one bit. >> $6.2 billion to $3.5 billion in five years in a growing global environment for liquor, spirits, beer, wine, coconut water, zima, you name it. maybe not zima. >> zima may not have been that good. the president came out today and said he favored natural gas vehicles. okay. who's standing in the way but exxon. the largest owner of natural gas in this country and they don't want to put it in their gas stations. i agree with you. maybe just maybe snapple -- remember the snapple deal? [ overlapping speakers ] >> you can stay if you want. please snuggle up to herb. settle in. >> hr's very powerful. >> we're going to lose jane wells if we don't get to her straight away.

>> friday on "squawk on the street". >> we're going to stay with booze. no one wants to leave booze. jane wells is in kentucky and going to take us inside america's bourbon boom. >> wow. i think i need a drink after that. i'm at brown forman's wood for preserve. west of here in claremont, kentucky, is a massive distillery for jim beam. beam today reaffirming earnings growth in 2012 in the high single digits because suddenly bourbon is everywhere. the fx justified based in kentucky. but bourbon sales are growing faster. citi expects them to double over the next seven years says unemployment goes down, spirit sales go up. and tourism, 450,000 people came to kentucky for the bourbon trail last year. so beam is investing several million dollars not just in bourbon but in expanding its visitor's center. >> we're trying to build the

site so we can accommodate upwards of 200,000 visitors a year. we're really excited about that. >> all right. here's the hottest video of the day. look at this. literally bourbon has to be made in new never used charred oak barrels. they char them on site in louisville. and the number of barrels made here is up 50% in a decade. >> we're making over 2,500 barrels a day here at this facility. and we employ about 300 people at this facility. >> now, they resell some of these used barrels to scotch makers and tequila. they cannot use them again for bourbon. you can only use them once. that helps them recoup some of their costs. guys, another thing bringing down the cost since the housing collapse, american white oak, the only kind of wood they use, is suddenly more available and a little cheaper. back to you. >> and in the next hit you will have drilled a hole and put your mouth up to the barrel -- >> if you do that, jane, we don't want to witness it.

>> oh, that is a great assignment. >> on my blog later you will see me do a tasting of their new double oaked woodford reserve. i'm telling you, it almost is to die for. >> i bet. just make sure you're back on camera on camera tomorrow, jane. >> okay. >> coming up next, cold water on the housing hopium from the professor. >> top economist robert schiller is going to outline what he thinks could derail a recovery in the home prices. stay with us. it allows children, whether they be special needs, underprivileged, children from a tough socioeconomic background to attend games normally they would not have the opportunity to attend. really enjoyable experience. and something we've enjoyed doing over the last five years.

♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪ (

home prices falling four months in a row and down basically every year since 2006. our next guest sees no end in sight. he said house price moves were all about momentum. they go in directions, one direction, for years, that direction has been down. here to explain his take is the aforementioned, robert schiller at yale. and of course, the schiller and s&p case schiller home price index. professor, good to see you again. i understand what you're saying, is that home prices, they're more likely to trend for an extended period. they have trended essentially for six years' time. how much more trend on the down

side do you see in terms of years? >> well, it's really hard to tell, because we're just coming out of the biggest housing bubble in history. so we're kind of in uncharted territory. it could turn around, you know. it's been going a long time. we're seeing some good news now. starts, permits, confidence, the nahb housing index is strikingly up, though it's still low, but it's up. so it could turn around. i just don't see any scientific way to be assured what it's going to do. it could keep going down. >> this is your thing, robert. if you don't know where housing prices are going to go, how could anybody else have any hope of forecasting it correctly. where is the end game here, robert? what needs to happen? does it have to do with fannie mae or freddie mac, or foreclosures? what needs to happen to turn things around? >> well, in terms of housing, we might be at the end game. home prices are back to a normal

level. they could just stay here, and that would be all right. right? housing is very affordable. interest rates are down, prices are down to kind of a normal level. they haven't overshot normal. so maybe in terms of housing, this is it. this is it. and maybe nothing exciting will happen. maybe they'll drift a little down. >> this is normal? >> i'm smelling a little optimism from robert shiler on housing. did you just say this may be the bottom? >> it might be, yeah. because i'm particularly interested in leading indicators, like permits. or the nahb traffic index which asks builders to assess the traffic of prospective home buyers. and that's up a lot. these things can turn quickly and sharply. it's too soon to tell. >> and confidence is everything. you've studied that with equity prices, right? things are better. people feel better.

the economy is better. if -- when housing turns, how quickly can it turn? >> well, see, it depends on whether real animal spirits come back. it could languish for 20 years. it could just stay where it is. maybe it's coming back, but i don't see any clear signs of that. there's no reason why we have to have another boom soon. we might. but there's no reason. and we've been kind of shocked. we went through a depression scare. so it could be 20 years before we have another boom. for the nation. >> whatto what extent can the overall economy improve, gdp show marked improvement without the participation of housing? >> well, i think that it will improve. we'll have a reallocation into other things. for example, into other kinds of construction, apartment construction. we need highways fixed.

the infrastructure could get involved in that. but all kinds of other things will gradually come back. and we'll be back to a normal rate of unemployment. that's where we're trending slowly. >> i like to hear a little bit -- not a boom optimism, but a little bit of optimism, i think, from pro feller robert shiller. >> my high gas prices, i'm sorry to rain on this homium -- >> the love effect that herb and cramer just had. >> robert, might high gas prices force people to stay in urban spaces, not move out of the city, and therefore in all likelihood rent more trap than perhaps buy? >> alan greenspan said, it's not a national market. there's all different areas. if gasoline prices go up, the suburbs will look less

attractive, right? center city will look more attractive. and that's more naturally a rental market. so rental apartments might take precedence. are we building more of them. it's already starting to happen. >> robert shiller, thank you so much for joining us today. always appreciated. in the meantime, today -- >> want to bring your attention to deckers, hitting november 2010 lows. this is a classic example of momentum in reverse. one of my pals points out that this stock, people loved it. 40% higher. >> on a sunny, shiny day here in the northeast, beautiful day out there. today's sunshine stock is cabo ceramics. it's a houston, texas, energy company that makes products of fracing for natural gas and oil in the u.s. they also have technologies that prevent oil spills, and also help to contain them.

shares are up, oh, goodness, about 6% so far today. for the year, though, the stock is down significantly. >> i almost did it as a disaster du jour a number of times recently. >> but not for today. >> this next story is not a disaster, it's a very sunshiny day for the woman who sold this thing. but i'm not sure what it says about anything. but here you go, folks. that mcnugget we showed you, the one that has the vague resemblance to george washington's face? well, it sold. you know how much this thing sold for? you do now, because it's on the banner, $8,100. >> what would you do with it? >> i don't know. >> the worst thing about this thing, it's 3 years old. >> i know. >> the mcnugget is 3 years old and still in standard -- >> what are they putting in those mcnuggets? the money goes to charity, by the way, so good for her. but still, $8,100 for a mcnugget --