actual gold mine. i am a big gold bug. there's always a bull market somewhere. i'm jim cramer, see you tomorrow. you're watching "worldwide exchange" from europe, asia, and the united states. good morning and welcome to the show. the headlines from around the globe this morning here in the united states, it's steady as she goes at the fed which is expected to keep interest rates and any further monetary moves on hold for now. >> no wiggle room for spain. europe's finance ministers ratchet up the pressure of madrid asking it to shave half a percentage point from its deficit this year. >> and here in asia tokyo stocks trimmed gains after japan's central bank on any eventual prizes but the boj governors still have fighting words for deflation.

good morning. you're watching "worldwide exchange" with chloe choe, beccy meehan, and i'm jackie deangelis here. due to daylight savings we are a one-hour show this week and next week as well. let's take a look at the u.s. futures and see how we're setting up for trade on wall street. it looks like a higher open. the dow would be higher about by 66.3. the nasdaq higher by 15.5 and the s&p 500 higher by nearly two. this is after u.s. equities finished mixed in trading on monday. we have the china trade deficit numbers impacting a little bit. also the eurozone ministers meeting getting some more confidence there will be the $130 billion euro bailout frr greece. we saw the lowest volume day, only 3 billion shares traded on the new york stock exchange. beccy, how is it faring in europe four days of ground. adding more ground. only marginally yesterday. the fifth straight day again

today. the ftse is up by just over half of a percent. higher for the smi as well. 0.7% for the kak. the ftse mib across italy moving up by 0.8% plus. so eurozone finance ministers keeping the pressure on spain. they say the country must target deeper cuts this year to meet its goals in 2013. carolin is in brussels. the attention has shifted away interest greece and now spain appears to be in the spotlight. what's the latest? >> reporter: well, madrid is now forced to cut its shortfall to 5.3% of gdp this year. remember, though, this is actually half a percentage point less than what the spanish government proposed a little bit more than a week ago. remember, that was quite a shocking announcement by the new spanish government. but remember that this target is still below the 4.4% target set by the eu earlier this year. so, yes, it is clear that

brussels is showing some leniency in terms of the 2012 budget but euro group president made it extremely clear to everyone that he does expect spain to be on track for 2013. >> we welcome commitment of the spanish government in 2013, for the correction of the excessive deficit, below 3% of gdp. this is of the utmost important step, spain is stick iing to th budget target of 2013. that means 3% of gdp. >> reporter: and that's going to be a very difficult task for spain to reduce its deficit by almost 6% over the next two years. remember that the new spanish government has implemented some 15 billion euros in budget cuts and austerity measures. it is can cutting another 30 billion euros this year and thousand with this new deficit target of 5.3%, it'll have to

find another 5 billion euros in budget cuts. so, again, with unemployment at a record high, 24%, it is a very, very herculean task to fu fulfill. so joining us as our guest host is richard cooke, global chief investment officer at citi private bank. thanks for spending the hour with us. so spain is now in the spotlight as carolin was just describing. i know you are very underweight peripheral sovereigns. are you concerned about spain in particular? >> a marvelous bit of anchoring going on here. they came out with 5.8. the eu says, no, 5.3 but that's the original target. they slipped last year. they will this year. as the correspondent was pointing out 25% unemployment and, frankly, i think they're trying to tighten this much when

you are already in a recession is madness. the quid pro quo event is unless they have this compact, unless it has teeth, then the ecb is not going to be out there buying the bonds. so clearly spain is a big risk. interest our point of view, moreover, what the greek solution effectively did was suborder nate bondholders. it makes it even less enthusiastic about the peripheral debt but paradox probably more. no longer comparing with the risk free rate. suborder nat subo subordinated rate. >> you are buying equities? >> we've been long europe. we just have nothing at all in the peripheral debt and haven't since march 2010. >> so what's the opportunity then in europe bearing in mind

what you said about the peripheral debt? >> the opportunity in what accepts? >> well, if if you see that there is value in equities in europe, how do investors make the most of that? >> oh, i see. so listen, if you look at, again, part of the problem with spain is its 40% financials so you may not want to buy spain n. general terms europe is trading on hatch the valuation of the u.n. so it seems you can't simultaneously be hugely bearish about europe and that bull irn about the u.s. the valuation difference has only been this extreme three times in the last 100 years and by definition therefore europe every single time. now you might say, well, of course we have these systemic concerns but i'm guessing a couple of world wars so it's not clear to us that would be a reason not to go and buy europe rather than the u.s. frankly if the likes of spain did blow up, if you got into this vicious vortex of the political economy, just the u.s. would not escape that carnage.

so from our point of view, low valuations not only providing some down side cushion. they set you up for better returns later on. >> good morning, richard. it's jackie here in the yunited states. >> morning. >> a quick question regarding spain. at what point does spain not become a risk and sort of what's the tipping point where spain becomes a problem? >> well, the ecb has helped out, of course, here. so all the liquidity done in ltro one and two has essentially enabled the banks to buy the sovereign. as we know there's this huge circumstance late between the sovereign on the one hand and the banking on the other. the sovereign has dwarn guaranteed the banks. the problem here is that if the ecb decides that the fiscal compact is not as secure as what was originally proposed, the likelihood of it going and doing more is less. in which case you'll have problems with the banking system. don't forget they hadn't

actually turned 0 out for three years. they have funded at least some of their debt for three years but it's still a lot coming up in the second half of the year. so that is a problem and the liability side rather than the asset side of the balance sheet and what you're seeing in europe is the paradox of thrift and, therefore, you're going to see growth crater through peripheral k countries over the next few months. that's unlikely to be good. so, therefore, both of those could be the ecb side and the asset side of the balance sheet. >> so then what does the ecb need to do because, until now, just as we got over the greek hurdle, the chatter, at least that we've been hearing in some corners, maybe time to mop up some of the trillion euros in three-year ltros. that's been hogging the markets. >> yeah. i very much doubt they'll do anything on that at the moment. it would be quite difficult to see why they would come out with something that has worked pretty well and then take it back immedia

immediately when you have this growth plummeting. that would seem a very strange thing to do. what europe needs to do is run a tight fiscal and loose monetary policy. that's complicated by the fact you have 17 countries in the ecb overseeing 17 not one. in reality that is exactly what they need to do. >> okay. we'll talk more. you're saying that the bond yields haven't moved and that's a potential canary in the coal mine. great to have you as our guest host. still much more to come. we are going to be live in beijing at the national people's congress. as trade disputes take center stage at this year's session. the whole story right after this.

welcome back. you're watching "worldwide exchange." it's time for the global markets report. let's start here in the united states and take a look it at the futures, how we're setting up for trade on wall street. some of the pressure from the global markets, the positive sentiment that is, trickling in here in the united states. if the markets were to open now, the dow would be higher by 68 points. the nasdaq by 16 and the s&p 500 higher by nearly two. this after u.s. equities finished mixed on monday. it was a low volume day, the lowest of thethe leaders there, exxon mobil and 3m were on the

yeah, well, as you mention ed low volume day. asia somehow decided to go out of the gate and off to run with it. quite a bit risk on. japan erased most of the gain after the boj didn't come up with any big surprises. the post decision announcement was quite interesting in that they say they have no political pressure but it seems like based on what they have done which is expand some of the lending facility is for growth sectors. the big question is what they're going to do next and a lot of analyst have is been talking up this market as well. we'll talk more. take a look at what happened at the greater shanghai region, 0.9, the hang seng up 1%. a couple of factors. comments from the governor, there could be ample room for cuts. what did he say yesterday? china is not going to resort to rrr cuts to help shave monetary

policy. the market consensus, looking for something like 150 basis point cuts in rrr. we'll find out if that's going to happen. and also the hang seng moving up 1%. overall there was a renewed interest in financials which have been the underperformers that seemed to trigger this risk on rally all over asia as you can see as well australia and the best performance that we haven't seen for a couple of weeks or so. the kospi, get this, ran up by 1%. some of the techs, some of the cyclicals moved higher. the fta finally takes effect on thursday, beccy. we're seeing gains, too, on the european trading day so far. this is the market overall across europe and it's up by about three-quarters of a percent. we're seeing just off the highs of the session and right across the region as well. the ftse 100 is managing to be half of a percent. the cac up by two-thirds of a percent. i should add that to put it in

context four straight days of gains so the dax up 0.4%, add to go that the fifth straight day of gains on the equity market. so that's what's happening with equities. let's talk about what's going on elsewhere. in the currency market, the euro dollar at 1.3131. dipping against the dollar. a look at the yen rate, we should consider that as chloe just pointed out we have decision for the boj earlier. no surprise. the boj has already surprised recently with a bit more easing. waiting for the results of that to trickle through but we did get some announcements from the boj that they are expanding to growth industries and by about 2 trillion yen. a wait and see for what the boj will do. dollar/yen 82.69. sterling/dollar at 1.5659. we did have positive economic

data in the uk today in the form of the house prices are from rick which suggested that actually the pace of house price decline has slowed considerably. we are expecting to see stability later in the year and, also, we look at the bonds market. another point which is employment is likely to pick up in 2012, so says this survey here. the gilt in the uk is at 2.11%. spain now we've seen this pressure on the government. they won't meet their deficit target as planned, just over 5% now for the spanish ten-year debt and in the states we're looking at a level of 2.04. we have retail sales data coming out later.

well, members of china's national people's congress may have fresh global trade to grapple with, the second to last day of its parliamentary session and this comes set as they unveil a new trade case against beijing regarding its curb on exports. >> reporter: thanks a lot,s chloe. this potential announcement later on today by u.s. president barack obama would mean that it's one step before an official case is opened at the wto. it comes amidst renewed friction with about the renminbi, whether the chinese authorities are trying to slow its appreciation. the fact that the u.s. may be opening these negotiations doesn't come as too much of a surprise to many of the people i spoke to especially in an election year. it does come as a surprise if it is going to be joined by the european union and, of course,

japan. just earlier on this week on monday we had the governor from the central bank of china, the pboc, come out and say that china is committed long term to being an investor in the european sovereign debt market and of course today we had japan come out and say it is going to buy up it to $10 billion worth of chinese government debt. this is by far the largest apartment of purchases into the sovereign market here in china by an advanced economy. and it would elevate the status of the renminbi at a time when it's seeking to internationalize its currency. but politically, chloe, as you mentioned the timing is very delicate. the national people's congress will be wrapping up their meeting tomorrow and they will be waking up potentially to this news from barack obama as he tries to pry open the markets to more manufacturers overseas. >> china really can't afford to

have trade tensions especially as growth slows. the consensus forecast expects some easing in terms of rrr cuts by about 150 basis points. what are the current conditions that are on the ground judging from the commentary of the national people's congress? >> reporter: well, chloe, the rhetoric over the last eight days during the national people's congress has been fairly clear. the chinese government wants to tolerate lower growth and it can tolerate more managed growth that is less susceptible to economic bubbles. at the same time, the last couple of days, we had this massive trade deficit in the first months of this year. granted we're coming into a european slowdown, of course, but you also have to remember that inflation now is past the levels in china that it was seven years ago. this 7.5% growth target china announced at the start is going to be a target.

as we all know china has managed to overshoot these targets many, many times in the past. what's i think more interesting is this 4% inflation target at a time when inflation is coming in at the low 3% level so it gives the authorities here a little bit more wiggle room so to speak. i think it's very interesting a report came out earlier on today upgrading its growth forecast for china. they now expect growth of 8.2%. earlier it was 7.9% and they are looking for an interest rate cut which would be extremely important by the end of the month and of course a cut in the required ratio which is less significance in the interest rate cut. as far as rrr is concerned the consensus anywhere between 100 and 200 basis points for the remainder of 2012. that scenario doesn't really change even though the data that we've gotten recently has been on the soft side. >> how much concern is there amongst the authorities in the

european union over the impact on europe's woes on china and what are they prepared to do about it? >> reporter: as i mentioned earlier, the central bank officials commented earlier on this week they will be long-term investors and that doesn't fundamentally change this is probably reassuring to some of the european authorities there. i think the fact exports are slowing, the final demand has slowed for the european market, that was to be expected. i think most of the economists and policy watchers seem to accept this is going to be the case for perhaps at least the first half of this year. what i think is a long-term concern is about the rebalancing and how china is going to manage this away from an economy that is primarily investment driven, relying on exports and more towards consumption. i think the policy options, at least the viable ones, seem limited at this time.

>> okay, thank you for that. reporting from beijing. and still to come on the show, the bank of japan saying the way to ensure growth is kill defrustration. we have the details up next. choose control. introducing gold choice. the freedom you can only get from hertz to keep the car you reserved or simply choose another. and it's free. ya know, for whoever you are that day. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.

well, the bank of japan has

stopped short of offering investors. one thing they were wishing for was another loosening. they have voted down a low number of proposals to ramp up the asset buying program and kept policy on hold. the boj chief says the bank has plans to expand the loan growth program as part of a plan to fight deflation. well, let's talk more on this with jay nelson, senior editor of success story of japan. identified shared business st t strategies companies are using in japan. thanks for your time. it really seems like the pressure is on for the boj, number one, to find out when they're going to ease further and, number two, whether the highly speculated measure of boosting asset purchasing and lending programs, that's going to do the trick to defeat deflation. already comments asset purchases are unlikely to subvert inflation. that's the latest that we get.

>> yeah, i think the boj is just going to take its time now. they had a little surprise last month when they introduced the inflation target and i think they're going to take a few months to see the impact since there's no real emergency in the economy anymore. >> so they may take a wait and see approach but i guess what a lot of people are wondering is when the reckon iing moment wil come. the debt to gdp around 200%. some of the analysts we spoke to earlier today suggested that maybe the time frame is just around three years or so given that even being a credit and surplus nation they do have an aging population and especially if rates go up around the world, the fed, the ecb, then it could actually start to back up yields. do you agree with that perspective? >> not really. japan is a lot better off than most of the pundits say and that 200% number, debt to gdp, it's a false number because over half of that number is owed internally. the japanese government entity

to another entity. so really japan is much healthier. they have a tremendous capital surplus. they still are close to having a trade surplus this year. they have tremendous cash on the balance sheets of companies. households are flush. so i don't really think it will be three years. it may be a long er time if eve. >> nice to see you. a couple of questions. first off, on the inflation target, it's a vague inflation target. i guess the best you could say is that the floodgates have, to an extent, been jammed open a little bit. and until now the boj has essentially thought of deflation as a structural problem. from my point of view the very fact they are talking about that is a good thing. the second thing is on the government debt true that you want to possibly look at the net number rather than the growth number. even then you get to 150%, no? >> no, it's more like 110%, i

think. but who is quibbling, right? >> but on the deflation point do you think the boj is going to start to be more aggressive? >> yes, i think this is -- the announcement last month of the inflation target is really japan saying we've had it with deflation, and they have the possibility to get up to 1% gradually with the kind of easing they've been doing over time. so things are looking good. >> being 0. well, we'll have to leave it there. just about out of time. a hard landing could be a big threat for japan. thank you for your thoughts there, jay nelson from success stories. jackie? coming up on the show it could be a very quiet day for the fed which is expected to maintain the status quo on race and monetary policy. they will be going over it with a fine toothed comb.

good morning. welcome to the show. the headlines this morning, here in the united states, of course, steady as she goes at the fed which is expected to keep interest rates and any further m monetary policy moves on hold for now. no wiggle room for spain. europe's finance minister ratchets up the pressure on

madrid. and here in asia tokyo stocks trimmed gains after gentlem japan's central bank holds out on any surprising eases, but the boj governor still has fighting words for deflation. good morning. nice to have you here on "worldwide exchange." if you're just joining us, let's take a look at the futures and see where they stand in terms of trade on wall street. if the markets were to open now, the dow higher by 58. the nasdaq by 17. and the s&p 500 higher by two. this after u.s. equities finished mix in trade yesterday. a low volume day across the board. 3 billion shares on the new york stock exchange. seeing more confidence out of the eurozone minister's meeting yesterday that we are going to get the $ 30 billion euro bailout for greece that will be approved this week. that adding a positive boost. the dow gaining 38 points, year to date up 6%.

beccy, how are we faring in london this morning? yesterday looked pretty flat but it did creep higher in yesterday's session. we're just adding to those levels today with the ftse now up by 0.6%. three-quarters of a percent higher by the dax. managed to gain. the cac is up 0.74%. almost 1% higher for the ftse mib. so improving, jackie. meantime here in the united states the fed is going to meet today with a decision due out at 2:15 p.m. eastern time. the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates at historic lows and not offer any major clues about possible further easing moves. following friday's better than expected u.s. jobs report, futures are now pricing in a 64% chance that the fed will begin tightening rates in january 2014. of course still with us richard cookson to talk more about this.

richard, let me get your take on how the fed is playing this. seems like they're leaving the door open but keeping things hedged at the moment. they don't really want to commit to further qe right now. they want to take a wait and see approach. a lot of traders are telling me it's about the april meeting where they'll have more economic data to go on to be able to make some of these decisions. do you agree with that? >> i agree with the wait and see. i'm not sure april will give us any more clues. the numbers have been better. but, of course, one of the problems here is they looked this time last year as well and it's been a huge adjustment problem with the data in the u.s. the fed will be aware of it. we know that they've been coming down on how they cut the numbers in particular. so it doesn't seem to me that either this month or in april we're likely to see much evidence one way or the other. the fact is that rates are going to keep on the floor for the foreseeable future. potential growth is very, very meager indeed. that's why you see bond yields of 2%.

it's been quite extraordinary the extent to which bond yields have not reacted to the shift up in risk appetite you've seen over the past few months and that's telling you something pretty unpleasant. now i do think they'll have another round of qe. i do think that some of the data we've seen recently is illusory and that that's likely to slow in the second half of the year although q2 and q3. the fed will not want to do anything now at all. >> okay, fair enough in terms of the time line there. when we're looking at some of the numbers, you mentioned growth and that is a key concern and will affect a lot of issues like unemployment, et cetera. what do you think some of the other data points are that the fed will be looking to as key and crucial before it makes any decisions? >> well, two mandates are growth and inflation jobs. it will want to see whether not just the unemployment rate is coming down but employment is going up. don't forget that the only reason the employment rate has

come down is precisely because lots of people left the labor force. so there's still some big question marks about how real is the growth in jobs. and the second question here is that actually core inflation remained a little bit sticky. they're going to be keeping half an eye on that and really that's what they need to be looking at is growth subdivided into inflation on the one hand and jobs on the other and i think some of the numbers, as i said, have been a bit weird over the last few months and the beginning of last year, and that really is what they're going to be keeping their eye on. >> so, richard, if the data points are being massaged especially in a u.s. election year, do you think equities have come too far and highlights a much stronger case for credit bond? >> i disagree with your opening question. i don't think they're being in an election year. it's a seasonal adjustment which is quite a different thing. do i think that equities are too expensive?

absolutely. we look at cyclically adjusted p/e in the u.s. of 22 versus about 12 for europe. either way you look at it, we don't particularly like u.s. equity numbers for a long while now. on the bond side, again, we're not keen on treasuries. we're under weight, have been since late august. both in duration and nominal terms. we much, much prefer the u.s. and credit because it's so wide. so if as we expect rates stay on the floor for the foreseeable future and there's no real reason for bond yields to go up, then you go and buy the credit because you'll find credit will come down. >> all right. meantime we're going to leave it there just for a moment. the fed will release the results of the latest bank stress test on thursday at 4:30 p.m. eastern time. the fed has unveiled a metric on the 19 largest banks gauging their ability for severe financial stock. 13% unemployment. a 50% drop in the stock market,

a 21% drop in housing prices and deterioration in loans such as credit cards and mortgages. banks with the large trading operations like goldman, morgan stanley, bank of america, citi, wells fargo, they are subject to extra scrutiny including how they perfeorm sim is lar to whe lehman brothers collapsed in 2008. richard, i would like to ask you this. we've seen the financial sector very strong here domestically since the beginning of the year. do you think that is over or under rated? >> financial sector meaning share prices? >> share priceses on the financial equities. >> sure. >> no, listen, the u.s. banks were priced for something really nasty not just domestically but of course from across the pond. what was happening in europe. so absolutely that's warranted. whether it has an impact on the real economy, i'm rather less sure about because, of course, what you are seeing is banks

deleveraging with the will. you see a pickup in credit, private sector credit from loans to consumer lending. but actually the flip side that have is the banks have been deleveraging savagely so i'm not sure that they're going to see any followthrough from this rising share price to the broad economy. >> all right. thanks for that, richard. we are going to leave it there. still to come on the show, president obama defends his policies but americans are still feeling the pain at the pump. we're going to head out to the international energy forum in kuwait next and find out what's on the world's oil ministers' minds. what do they have to say about the rising prices? up next.

i think the american people understand that we don't have a silver bullet when it comes to gas prices. but they're hurting right now. every time you fill up. and so what i've instructed my team to do, looking at every single thing we can do, ultimately, though, the single most important thing is reduce our dependence on foreign oil. president obama argues the u.s. has become less dependent on foreign oil showing the volume being imported fell significantly last year.

rising gas prices are proving to be the biggest potential campaign killer for the president in the run-up to the november elections. a poll by "the washington post" and abc showed that two-thirds of people are dissatisfied with obama's handling of rising gas prices. and over in kuwait, oil ministers are convening. oil price volatility is at the top of the agenda. of course reporting live from kuwait is yousef. a big issue here, oil prices impacting the gas prices in the united states. what are the energy ministers saying there about the future of oil prices as we discussed in the past? there is some interest in some of the countries keeping those prices lower. >> reporter: absolutely, jackie. it's a great lineup if you think about it. energy ministers for more than 80 countries, dialogue between producers and consumers. the reality is that the heavyweights and the bigger economies aren't really talking, at least the delegations aren't. this morning basically

scrambling for some reaction to what's going on here in these meetings. and so far, for the most part, we have not been able to really get a lot of feedback from the individual ministers he especia on the supply side. i did speak to an oil minister and as much as they're not a member of opec, not a significant importer or exporter of oil, he says $100 a barrel is fair in this part of the world and that $125 a barrel for brent was a bit high. he was worried about demand destruction and said that the geopolitical turmoil and the possibility of it escalating, thinking here the situation with iran, of course, has a lot to do with that. it's not the natural state of affairs for brent is what he was alluding to. of course he mentioned the volatility and this is one of the discussion points here, jackie. of course, how do you mitigate that volatility? and there are, of course, different ways of going about that. do you bring in more regulation

to get under control certain aspects of financial markets, how do you keep speculation under control and reduce the impact of that? and then, of course, brings to the table a completely different conversation, what drives prices of oil. how much of it -- or is it the physical fundamentals and how much is the financial markets so that is another term that will be discussed as well. and then, of course, investment in the industry. you need $1.5 trillion every year according to the iea to ensure that increasing demand around the world can be met. >> okay. and certainly here in the yunitd states we're talking about israel and iran very closely. some saying israel could strike before the november election. what are the powers that be on the ground saying about the potential for that? >> reporter: well, definitely still a talking point and a lot of jitters here as well and this has been going on ever since the escalation and rhetoric and the series of tit for tat action

between the two spheres really and the consensus is that at the moment it doesn't look like it in terms of an escalation. i mean, we did see different statements, more conciliatory gestures from both sides in the last few weeks but at the same time tensions do remain high. it is seen that the united states does not necessarily have much of an interest in starting an attack right now, that there's a lot of war fatigue in the u.s. and that israel is trying to push this more than the u.s. is. and that given the state of the global economy and given the fragile nature of the arab world the last thing this part of the world needs would be an attack on iran. so that definitely is a factor. it is playing into the price despite the fact that you could argue that the geopolitical risk premium is playing less of a role. so it's still quite complicated to navigate these waters, jackie. i'll keep you posted. >> absolutely. thank you so much to you for

reporting live. let's get richard's thoughts, our guest host with us for about three-quarters of an hour now. thank you for sticking around a bit longer. so do we have the ability to go hi higher? >> it's a concern because of the price earlier. you have record petrol prices. not there yet in the u.s. but it's going up. the average price is $3.85. i have nominal wages pretty much on the floor. nominal wages are growing by 1.9%. you can't go and borrow from the banks in the same way you could in previous years. so it's a growth problem, it's not an inflation problem. as for the future, as your

correspondent was saying, it's not actually just to do with israel and iran but clearly that's the key factor here and we don't know whether israel is playing brinkmanship, we don't know if they're being bellicose to bring iran to the trading table or they're really serious. i suspect history would suggest strongly that if israel thought that iran was going to get nuclear weapons they would tend to act. that's what history shows us. now other people disagree on that one. if that happens, you would see a very sharp rise in oil prices because we know that if iran is threatening to close the straits of hormuz and the only question then how long they would stay there. and you would be talking a question mark about a global recession. >> richard, let's leave it there. we have longer with you. we'll come back to you shortly. jackie, back to you. coming up next on the show, we're going to look ahead at the trading day on wall street. we'll be getting retail sales

and business inventories data ahead of the fed's decision on monetary policy today. stay tuned. >

good morning and welcome back. the fed is reportedly fighting a subpoena for ben bernanke to testify in a civil lawsuit. the wall street journal says lawyers want ben bernanke to talk about conversations he and former secretary treasury hank paulson had with bank of america before it completed its purchase of merrill lynch in 2009. the u.s. government gave b of a when ken lewis said he might abandon the deal because of merrill's losses. it's rare for be compelled to

testify in a lawsuit. and the s.e.c. is stepping up its probe of pre-ipo trading of shares of companies on the second isary market. the investigation involves the marketing of stock and hot internet companies like twitter and facebook and whether firms are fully disclosing risk to investors. the s.e.c. is negotiating a set is lment with shares and could bring action against felix investment. they got media attention after touting facebook and twitter's prospects to clients. well, he's been in the top job since 2004. donahue, who oversaw the cme expansion with the cbo at nymex will be replaced by current president. cme chairman terry duffy will take on the president's role and duffy is the face of the company in front of congress and regulators in the wake of the mf global scandal. >> and prudential has met forecasts in the 2 billion

pounds. numbers are boosted by continued strength in asia which was the biggest contributors to the group's earnings. according to rumors set to move headquarters out of the uk. the ceo told cnbc it was an eu problem not the british ones. >> not because of anything london has done, it's because of things that are happening in brussels so let's put the debate back where it belongs. this year's ten years i think is a great environment to operate. we have london is the best for prudential to be located. >> and there are a pair of economic reports on the u.s. calendar today. february retail sales are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern forecast to arrive 1.1% and by 0.8%. we'll get business inventories, expe

expected to rise half a percent. richard, i want to 0 get your take on some of the data we can expect to see here in the states. all eyes are on the fed meeting but some of these numbers could help things along as well as we see positive retail sales, positive consumer sentiment. what are your thoughts? >> yes. so retail sales are a big one. if you look at personal spending and consumption, they've been pretty weak over the past few months and there are some -- quite a lot of talk about retail sales will be a big one. like all of these you take that with a bit of salt. inventory numbers will be quite an interesting number. because, again, the last few months what you've seen is a lot of the growth has been powered by inventory buildup, stock buildup. it will be interesting to see if that continues. so from our point of view the bigger question over the next weeks will be how much the u.s. data continues to peter out as

it seems to have done over the past couple of weeks or so. >> just quickly before we finish the show, i know you have concerns about the slowdown in china. >> it walks like a duck, it quacks like a duck. they've had a property bubble. these things generally don't end well. they never end well. what you are seeing is prices starting to fall naturally. transaction volumes are collapsing and what that means is that even though they will cut monetary policy and expand the policy, the trouble is it has huge ramifications tore china and the rest of the emerging world. >> we're looking at 10% of growth? >> yes, potentially. it depend on how far it would be. you don't have to be an armageddonist here but certainly you can say that huge sort of pro-emerging market play we've

had over the past few years have big question marks. >> richard, thanks to you. >> a great pleasure. richard cookson with us this past hour. and that wraps it up for today's show. from chloe, beccy and myself, we'll see you tomorrow on "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is up next. carfirmation.

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good morning. the ball is in ben bernanke's court. an improvement in the labor market lead the fed it to change course. the chairman convenes a meeting today. balls in the court, those are basketball analogies. it's also the beginning of march madness. it's tuesday, march 13, 2012. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew ross sorkin is off today.