nice rally for the dow holding well above 13,000. the nasdaq above 3,000. let's see if these two indexes can close above those levels at the same time time. "closing bell" is next. thanks for watching "street signs." hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. we're here in midtown new york se. bill is downtown at the new york stock exchange. the market rally on fire, bill. >> so far, so good. 42 blocks south of right here, as we stand right now, we're wondering whether it's going to be five in a row for the dow. the blue chip average is poised for its first five-day win streak in six months, thanks to gains today in the financials and the technology sectors, among others. strong retail sales, numbers this morning helped spark the rally early on. wall street is holding on to the gains right now after the fed

left interest rates at current levels and offered no big surprises about the economy at its latest policy statement that came out within the last hour. we'll have more on the fed and what you should be doing with your money right now in just a moment. but first, a look at the major averages and how we stand right now. we kind of just marched higher with the dow up 112. we were up 130-plus early on. now at 13,072. and a the nasdaq at 3,016. the s&p 500 index up 12 points, less than a percent there at 1,383. >> the tidbit that i'm looking at is something we've been talking about all day, that is, if the major averages will hold at current levels, it will be the first time to close above 3,000 and the nasdaq above 3,000 on the same day. so round numbers that people like to look at. it certainly is interesting to see both of these where they are right now. as bill mentioned, the

financials certainly a leadership group today. that is one of the groups taking this market higher. citigroup one of the big gainers in the group, up more than 3% as we approach the final stretch. technology, another big leadership group. intel posting a solid move here. up nearly 1.5%. there is word that intel is developing a web-based video service to compete with cable and satellite providers. we'll have more on this story in just a moment. bill, we're looking at technologies certainly here from the nasdaq today. >> i'm sure you are. time for the "closing bell" exchange. the fmoc meeting today. bob pisani is here with me here at the new york stock exchange. and steve liesman joins us. the headline seems like nothing has changed, except maybe a slight change in the view of the economy, right? >> i think the way to think about this, bill, fitting a jacket. they removed a button, maybe they let a seam out here and there. but the jacket, the overall

policy statement by the fed remains of the same material. that is to be easy until late 2014. a tweak to inflation. hey, what we expected was going to happen, sort of in the near term, is going to take a little longer. some upgrades to the employment outlook. soup upgrade to business. a very grudging upgrade to what's happening in the global situation. but i want to read you a note here from our friend dan greenhouse over at pdig. he says, nearly every optimistic note was book-ended by a caveat. so bill, i think the story is, a begrudging fed acknowledges both a changed inflation environment and a changed economic growth environment. but not changed enough to change policy. >> and bob, the fear was, early on, that if the fed didn't even hint about quantitative easing, that this market might be disappointed. it didn't happen and the market was far from disappointed. >> i think that's a very good point. other than the very grudging upgrade, steve's right, very grudging, what did the feds say?

number one, they said there was a hint of inflation in oil and gas. but that it would only be temporary. they got pushed aside there. and not a word of quantitative easing. what happened? the story isn't in the stock market, it was in the bond market. get a tight shot of this. take a look at this. this is what you want to look at this. 2.11%. stock traders were passing this around all afternoon as it started moving up. this is the highest level for the ten-year since going back to the early part of december. remember, there is enormous amounts of money locked up in the bond market. is this the final? steve, give me your opinion of whether or not this is the start of that big change everybody's been looking for. >> i think what we want to be careful about, bob, is there is certainly an amount of money that's front running qe. right? some guys thought maybe we were going to get something, maybe a dove-ish descent or something. that has to sell off to come out of the market. first of all, this is an

interesting april meeting where the fed has to decide whether or not not to continue it e. that's the odds-on bet is whether or not they're probably going to continue operation twist for a little bit longer. but i think the idea of fresh new money coming in, that is unsterilized quantitative easing, is increasingly off the table as long as the numbers look like they do. >> what about the money that's in the bond market right now? the fed said they're committed to keeping rates low until 2014. the market seems to be starting to say, we may be in charge, not necessarily the fed. that's what the traders down here are all hot and bothered about. >> this is definitely a green light for the risk-on trade. the money coming out of the safe havens and -- >> i think that's right, bill. gold came down as well. it was $12 on set before. i haven't looked at it in the last 30 minutes or so. yeah, about the same amount. and what's interesting here is that, yeah, you do want to get out of the way of the freight train. but bob, we simply don't know

how fast that train is going to be running in the sense that how much money is in there that's banking on 2014. how much is early 2014, how much is late 2013. it's really hard to know. >> bob, one trader said if the global economy is getting even a little bit better, would i rather own a ten-year at 2% or ford corporate at 6.9%. if the global economy is improving. that's their desire, to get out of the bond market. >> if you have any question now, bob, as to why chairman bernanke has been reluctant to acknowledge the improving economy, that's it right there. he wants people to believe in that late 2014 promise, just as long as they possibly can. because he wants to keep a lid on that long end that you were pointing to. >> you have to believe, steve, if the economy continues to improve as it has for the last few months with the jobs numbers and retail sales and all those things, that at some point the market embraces that, and forgets about the artificially

low rates that we face right now, don't you this i? >> it should, bob and bill. it would trade on that news as well, but it would also trade on qe-3. you could have one of those days when it's good, and a good day and a bad day. a good day would be a day we think about growth, and a bad day would be a day we think about the fed not coming in with more. but i will tell you guys, it's really premature. bernanke has told us he will keep things low for as long as he possibly can. he does not want to make the mistake he believes japan made, and the united states made in the great depression is to get out too early. i think the argument is about sort of a mid-2013 versus a mid-2014. it's not a 2012 argument. >> all i can say is traders have been itching to pull the trigger on this trade and get out of bonds. a lot of people have been wrong for a long time on this. they want to be right at some point. >> i just want to add, bob, i think what you're hinting at is the move when it happens is going to be a clip effect.

i don't know what the fed is going to be able to do so it's not a clip effect. you want to be out of the way of that. >> that's for sure. maria? >> bill, it's such a great debate whether or not this -- what is the catalyst to get that money moving out of bonds and into stocks. >> exactly. >> there's still a fair amount of uncertainty out there that people are more concerned with saving it, protecting the money, rather than taking on more risk. we'll see about that. certainly we do have pretty good movers, fueling today's rally that we want to look at. brian shactman is at the cnbc exchange for that. >> i want to take a look at the dow, industrials interday. we've had an acceleration in the buying in just the last few minutes, literally the last ten minutes we shot up 25, 30 points here. so keep an eye on the dow. accelerating a little bit. look at the s&p 500 right here at the realtime exchange. you get a real sense what's in the marketplace right here. advancers outpacing the

decliners 9-1. some of the winners and losers, quickly. when it comes to broad-based rally, regardless of volumes, we have it up 5.5%. u.s. steel up 6%. international game technology, 5.5%. broad-based stuff in terms of this rally. here are the laggards. urban outfitters, and darco, cvs and walgreens are all down. this is pretty much the bottom of the s&p 500. a few other stocks we're watching here, include the rare earth names. president obama wants the wto to use muscle so china will ease exports. moly corp is up 3.75%. it's about half of what it was at the highsi inof the day. same with all the other players

here. benihana, i want to look at the interday chart here. that's a huge spike. it was negative, now it's up 3.25%. investors want to get in right now. maria, back to you. >> brian, you know, we just are getting the first of what will likely be several dividend increases in the financial services sector. we know we'll get the results of the federal reserve stress test this week. jpmorgan announced it is increasing its dividend to 30 cents a share. that's up from 25 cents a share. they're increasing the dividend, and also announcing a $15 billion buyback. jpmorgan just coming out with this. we're waiting for the result out of the stress test. but clearly they've gotten the nod from the head that their capital ratios are very, very strong and are able to raise the dividends. we've been waiting for more banks to do the same. my bet is this is going to be the first of several dividend increases we hear about this week. let's get to steve liesman. he's got the breaking news out of jpmorgan right now.

>> essentially what jpmorgan is saying, they got a clean bill of health in the stress test. they're kind of waving it around in the form of this press release which says they're going to be upping their dividend from 25 cents to 30 cents. that's a 20% increase in the dividend. and a $15 billion buyback, which is great aggressive, maria. i don't know if you said this, but $12 billion is approved for 2012. and up to an additional $3 billion for the end of the first quarter 2013. so they're not going to be sitting on this money. this is going to be deployed. whether or not others get this is an interesting question. we thought we were going to get the stress test results towards the end of this week. jpmorgan jumping the gun and saying the federal reserve has informed jpmorgan it does not object to these proposed capital distributions as you note in this new world. if you do this kind of thing you have to get approval from the fed. it's sort of a once a year thing where they go to the fed, show them how they would withstand a worst case scenario in the

economy. and say, okay, since we can do that, can we give out this money to the shareholders. apparently the fed putting their stamp of approval on this. bank of america had been denied, it was hoped it could be this year. we'll get the results in the next couple days. who else has this kind of financial fire power, to be able to come out with a big dividend increase and buyback share like this. >> jamie dimon to lead the parade, like him to jump the gun like that, isn't it. >> i can't remember, bill, how they rolled it out last time. i thought what happened is the fed put the stress test out and then the companies came out. it is interesting here that jamie has decided mr. -- mr. diamond has decided to go out and do this. maybe this was done this way last time. this was somewhat unexpected today. >> you know what, it really isn't unexpected, though, that this is the strongest balance sheet of the group. >> absolutely. >> that's right, maria. >> talking about it as the

fortress balance sheet. jamie diamond wanted to move as soon as he got the nod. he said in january they were hopefully with the blessing of the fed going to be doing it around the annual meeting. that's where we are right now. he's been just wanting to do this, wanting to pay back the shareholders ever since the trouble started. >> it's interesting to think where we are. remember, during the downturn and during the financial crisis, it was the express intent of the authorities that all banks should be the same. the 19 -- >> but they're not the same. >> now we're in the process, is my point, maria, is differentiating. the weaker balance sheets are left behind. this will be interesting to see who else comes out with a bigger dividend. >> right. >> and a share distribution. >> my bet is that wells fargo does it. but my question is, is citi going to do it, this week, or is citi going to wait until later on in the year. >> i think dick parsons will

want to have that as his parting shot when he retires in the springtime. >> yeah. >> i think he'll want to do that earlier rather than later. >> yeah. >> i think we're going to watch a game of, can you top this in the springtime here. >> i agree. >> what i don't know, guys, is whether or not you know what the other guy is asking for, when you go in to ask the fed for approval. my guess is -- >> you know that they all have adequate capital. better than adequate capital, after all of the capital raising we've been seeing and all the attention on this issue. all the banks feel they are now equipped to do this at this point and give back to shareholders. we'll be watching this. certainly it's moving the market. look at this market rallying here as we approach this final stretch on the heels of this dividend increase out of jpmorgan. we'll take a short break. what's the nasdaq doing to convince facebook to list on the exchange when the company goes

public? also, we're looking at oil prices today. chevron's john watson will be with me explaining whether the energy giant will invest in new natural gas projects. and we'll talk about the huge rally in the price of crude oil. >> as we head to the break here, here's how some of the major commodities are trading today. generally higher. stand by, a lot to come in the next 90 minutes on "closing bell," first in business worldwide.

welcome back. i'm sharon epperson at the nymex. we told you in the last hour of the clearing corp for the segregation of customer accounts. the nonsegregation they're claiming of customer accounts. there are other cftc filings today, one against goldman sachs actually saying goldman sachs execution and clearing will pay $7 million to settle allegations that it failed to diligently supervise accounts it carried between may of '07 and december of 2009. and it also says in another filing, that appears to be perhaps somewhat related, against rj capital markets that they charged this company and three other entities with commodity pool fraud, saying

that there were three separate commodity pools in which participants invested in approximately $10.5 million. again, these accounts were not handled correctly. these are some of the cftc filings. a big day here. and the largest clearinghouse denying the charges it was in a nonsegregated account, saying they were told by jpmorgan it was a segregated account and when they learned it may not be, they moved the accounts and made their customers whole. back to you. >> sharon, thank you so much. we've been reporting this developing story now with jpmorgan, raising its dividend to 30 cents a share, up from 25 cents. also implementing a stock buyback with $15 billion total buyback, $12 billion this year, $3 billion next year. let's bring in david troen, he joins me on the telephone right now with jmp securities. thank you for joining us. your reaction to jpmorgan's dividend increase today. >> there's two parts.

the dividend increase and buyback. the dividend increase is pretty much as we expected. maybe about 10% above it. 30 cents. i think the street was looking for about 28 cents. but the buyback is a bit more than the street was looking for. the street was looking for about 7. of course, it's 15. although one caveat is it does replace a $6 billion outstanding authorization that will probably net out to about 9. but obviously the market likes it. >> you know, when we spoke with jamie diamond back in january, he said, look, we want to do a buyback, but it doesn't mean we're just going to buy back at any price. it was all about price. for him to announce this aggressive a stock buyback, he's sending a message to the market saying his stock is cheap. >> yeah. and, you know, it depends on all the other factors. i mean, right now we're in a slow growth environment. nims are suppressed.

capital markets aren't that great. some things are doing better. it's all relative to the other alternatives with the stock at roughly book value. it's probably the best alternative. >> so what do you want to -- what do we get from this in terms of these stress tests? clearly in the press release, jpmorgan saying the federal reserve has given the blessing, the nod that they are able to do this. do you expect that this is an indicator of other banks as well that we are going to see pretty much free sailing in terms of capital levels and what we hear from the federal reserve about the banking sector today? >> well, on one hand i would be a little careful, because jpmorgan was always the cleanest bank, the strongest. they would -- you know, we would presume they would have the heartiest, you know, approval in terms of capital giveback. there will be some, like b of a, other stocks up 3% to 4%. we continue to believe they will not be approved to return capital in any form.

so we'd just be a little cautious. although, you know, bottom line is, i think out of these, you know, 24 or so banks that are actually included, we think probably about two-thirds will have some type of approval for capital returns. >> okay. so do you think we're going to hear more dividend increases this week, and if so, who do you think will raise the dividend? >> yes, absolutely. you know, in -- >> wells fargo, citi, what do you think? >> wells fargo, goldman sachs would probably be the two most likely. citi probably will, but it won't be significant. like the others. and then there's a few regional banks, most of the regional banks will also be given some degree of approval. that's where i think the market will start to discern the amounts, not so much the yes or no. >> we'll see about that. certainly it has been a big reaction here in the markets. david, thank you very much, for weighing in on this. we appreciate it. david trone, one of the leading

financial services analysts. jpmorgan really leading the entire sector higher now as we approach the final stretch. >> it started as a fed reaction rally, now it is very much a jpmorgan rally. the financials are leading the way with less than 40 to go. the nasdaq is up very strongly as well today, 42-point gain there, maria. >> if money is moving into equities, is it time to get out of gold following the federal reserve's outlook. what they're telling us in "talking numbers." >> the dow is on pace to extend its winning streak for a fifth straight day. one analyst feels this could be the next leg on a bigger rally on the horizon and which stocks could lead the charge coming up. >> the sea of green in the dow today. as you can see, we're looking at a market up almost 180 points with almost 30 minutes before the closing bell sounds. we're back in a moment.

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i knew this was going to happen. >> welcome to the closing bell. the "wall street journal" now reporting that bank of america has passed the federal reserve stress test. the "wall street journal" citing

sources, and adding that the bank has not asked for a new buyback or a dividend increase. we were just talking about this, whether or not b of a would -- i believe they were either turned down, or whatever, they didn't do it last time around last year. here they are again. obviously bank of america back with concerns about the balance sheet from regulators. and of course on wall street as well. so all that now contrasting with the jpmorgan news with the bigger than expected dividend increase and bigger than expected share buyback. >> thank you. bill, we're looking at a market that's still on fire. it's jpmorgan really leading things. >> it's very much a -- it was a risk-on market anyway today with stocks higher and treasury yields going higher as well. gold is moving lower in a big way, especially after the fed announcement and now the jpmorgan and now b of a announcements on the stress test.

so, gold has pn acting tired lately anyway. now we've got this big sell-off. what's it telling you right now? >> gold is a 150-day moving average, and it will take out last year's record high. gold going lower by at least 10%. 2008 dropped by 20%. right now it's on defense, 1716 is the level to watch. i think it's going to go lower than that, and probably down toward 15 in a descending trail. i think gold is going lower. >> the price low then is -- >> 1760. below it, gold going to 1500 or lower. above it, perhaps gold takes out last year's record high. >> one of those things that we're watching right now, is that all the pieces are coming together with the risk-on assets moving higher, and things like gold moving lower. abigail, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> we're in the final stretch here, just about 20 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day. the market is on fire today. and accelerating given the latest news that jpmorgan is raising its dividend and

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welcome back. pob pisani down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. take a look at jpmorgan. 50 million shares i just saw there? that's good numbers for jpmorgan. much more volume than we've been seeing recently. the fact is, 5 cents increase in their dividend. the big story isn't the dividend increase, it's the buyback, $15 billion. that's a lot more than anybody was expecting, i can tell you that for sure. to give you perspective on this, it's estimated they're going to make around $18 billion in earnings. you can see some of the other big names. citigroup is the other one that's sort of floating out there, that they're anticipating some big buyback as well. they're anticipating some buybacks from some of these stocks. citigroup is number one on the list. we'll have to see what goes on very shortly. not only are we getting a move up on the numbers today, out of

jpmorgan, but we're also getting a move up on the global growth story. by the way, bill and maria, volume has picked up since 2 sln 15. the fed, since the jpmorgan announcement. it's definitely picked up in the last hour. >> i wouldn't get too excited about that, maria, because we're not talking big numbers, but we're talking a little bigger than normal. >> i am getting excited about it, how about that. >> good for you. so am i. >> it has turned out to be -- thank you, bob. it has turned out to be a big market day. maybe even an important market day thanks to the flurry of headlines from the fed. now we're getting the dividend increases and the buybacks on top of that. the dow is poised to close above 13,000 with the nasdaq set to close above 3,000 on the same day. first time that's ever happened, maria. >> that's a first. a real first. joining us to talk more about the markets and investing today, chief market strategist. also with us is jack at the nyse with bill. jack is the executive vice president and chief investment

officer at harris private bank. good to see you gentlemen. thank you so much for joining us. adim, let me kick it off with you. number one, are you expecting a string of dividend increases to happen in the next couple of weeks from the financial services sector? and two, is this the start of a breakout for the market? >> on the first point the answer is absolutely yes. management is very attuned to the fact that they raised their payouts significantly, stocks go up. on the part of the market, i think at this point, market will want to go higher. i am a little bit nervous about april. i think earnings could be somewhat disappointing given the inventory buildup we've seen in the fourth quarter. but through the end of march, i do think there's upside. >> it's interesting, jark, because on the one hand, you know, we're in april. where that's the annual season time. this is the time we're going to hear about buybacks, and dividend increases from managements, having these annual

meetings and shareholder meetings. and on the other hand, talking about a market that's up between 10% and 15% year-to-date, depending on what you're looking at. some of this stuff priced in. where are you on the rest of 2012 on these markets? >> good question. we started the year anticipating a 12% to 14% return target for 2012. we're still op track for that. taking all of that together, if we can get our 12% to 14% sometime before may, my inclination would be to kind of declare victory, and maybe watch some of the rest of the market from the sidelines. >> who would lead us higher then? if you're going to see that kind of a gain here, obviously the financials and technology are the two darlings of the street. technology has been for a while, now all of a sudden financials. is that where you would put your money or someplace else? >> financials are certainly cheap. but it is a new world. the returns that investors have to expect from technology are different than history. i like to use history.

so i can't really tell relative where they are now. technology, on the other hand, we're at nasdaq 3,000, and yet earnings since the last time they were at 3,000 are nearly doubled. so i think now we have some good basis for support on stronger tech gains going forward. >> vadim, the fed sat on their hands again today. in the meantime, if the economy continues to grow, does the fed's control of the bond market loosen a little bit because people are going to be willing to get out of the bond market and back into stocks here? >> still, the fed will always preserve the ability to implement qe-3 if needed. i think at this point the fed will probably err much more on the side of inflation, actually allowing the normal business cycle to get going before implementing any tightening or sterilization measures. >> the fed has made it very clear that they want to keep

interest rates at these extraordinarily low levels until the end of 2014. do you think that changes in any way, given the economic data of the day, showing improvement, given we do feel like we're in a different place economically speaking than we were when the fed first made that announcement? is money going to come off the sidelines out of fixed income and into stocks? >> there's always this danger. you have a tremendous amount of liquidity. if the cycle reverses, if we see severe rise in bank lending, the fed is going to have to reverse its stance. but until the credit cycle plays out in its normal way, i think liquidity is basically sitting on the sidelines and the fed won't act. >> thank you for joining us, gentlemen. we're just 15 minutes away from the closing bell. the market is at the highs of the day as we speak. on a lot of positive news for equities today, bill. >> got a real barn-burner going.

should you buy the banks now following this dividend hike announcement and stock buyback by jpmorgan? we'll get to that in a moment here. >> after the bell, is the nasdaq eyeing any big deals? we'll talk with deutsche borse's strategy at 4:15. the last time we spoke with bob, he said he's only expecting one month out of 12 in 2012 of strong volume. we'll check in on volume with him as well. >> he may set it up for six weeks now, maria. as we head to break, here's how the major averages are trading as we head to the close. stay with us. ♪ our machines help identify early stages of cancer

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welcome back to "closing bell." technology continues to be an outperformer. the nasdaq breaking 3,000. we've seen this move before, but the question is, can we close at or above this level. right now it does seem like we will. chip stocks continue to be on

fire. gardener reporting pricing that has hurt companies like micron should begin to improve in the second half of the year. and other chip stocks are also outperforming in today's trade. >> seema, thank you so much. the market is up 190 points as we're looking at the close, just ten minutes before the closing bell sounds. the big news of the day today is the news out of financials. jpmorgan today reporting that it is increasing its dividend 20%. taking the dividend up to 30 cents a share up from 25 cents a share. and a stock piebabuyback of $15 billion. let's get more on this story and how you want to be investing in the banks right now. president and chief investment officer. anton, you own jpmorgan, correct? >> we do. >> so you're a happy man. you're getting an increased dividend. >> certainly. >> what does this tell us about

the rest of banks? >> we definitely expect a bunch more dividend increases. given jpmorgan's stature, best in class, i expect them to push the envelope. they sure did. the numbers are bigger than anybody expected, particularly on the buyback side. if you look at it, they're paying out close to 90% of what they'll earn next year in terms of combination dividends and buybacks. that's pretty aggressive. i don't think any other bank will get those kinds of numbers. >> jamie diamond has been talking about wanting to do this for a long time, saying his hands were tide somewhat because the federal reserve was making those kinds of decisions. he comes out and does it big. >> well, that's correct. and i think we also have a headline, i believe, that the federal reserve is going to release the stress test this afternoon. so they'll release them early. i guess jamie preempted everybody. i don't think the regulators like that so much, so they'll try to release everybody at once. >> let's handicap what we might hear from the federal reserve

today on the stress tests. are you worried about bank of america? do you think citi will be able to pay a dividend? what's your take on all of this? >> sure. i'm not worried about bank of america. unfortunately they're not going to -- they haven't expected an increase in dividend. they're not going to buy back stock. they'll sort of sit there at the side of the dance, not dancing. however, the stock is really cheap. it may sell off near term, you know, given everybody else has all this great news. but at the end of the day, it's still rebuilding itself. so i think that's part of bank of america story here. they're not going to have to raise more capital, that's important. citi is the real wild card here. and i think analysts are all over the street on this. i would think we get a modest dividend increase sooner rather than later on citi, and maybe a buyback the second half of the year. if they get a buyback earlier, i think that's outstanding news and i think the stock will spike even more on that announcement. >> citi, you're coming from a

penny a share. maybe you'll get something small, just as a nod to, yes, we want to do this, and this is the direction we're going in. >> i've seen estimates anywhere from, you know, i think the highest number i've seen is somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 cents a year. so going from a penny a quarter, to 10 cents a quarter. that's a good size of increase. maybe a couple billion dollar buyback. >> very quickly, would you commit new capital to the banks right here on this news? >> i think generally, yes, from a longer term perspective you do want to commit capital to them. they've had a great, long run here. if you look back historically, they're also still very cheap compared to where they were in a normal environment. it feels like a lot more normal. the economy's doing better. we've seen better numbers pretty much, whether it's job lus numbers or retail sales. so you look around and everything else has moved. >> right. >> the banks have moved. but given the beating they've taken, they're still really cheap. >> anton, thank you so much for

calling in. we really appreciate it. and again, anton told us at the beginning of the interview it is now on the tape official, the federal reserve said they're going to release the stress test results at 4:30 p.m. eastern time. clearly jpmorgan getting in front of everybody, raising the dividend. now the fed wants to give all the information on all of the banks at once. they will do that at 4:30 p.m. eastern today, bill. perhaps we could find out more about the opportunity to see more dividend increases by the end of this program. >> we've got steve liesman standing by with more on this. isn't it interesting, steve, the market reaction, when these first stress tests were released there was great fear in the markets at that time. anything but this time around. >> exactly. let me just do a little background here. there was an expectation out there that the stress tests were going to come out on thursday. we talked to some other banks and they were not prepared to tell us what their plans were relative to the dividend, because they were expecting a release on thursday. as i recall, it happened in the

past, bill, what would happen is the fed would come out with the stress test results and the banks would tell us what they were doing with their dividends. the proprietary information that resulted, now i think the whole thing has been pushed up. we're trying to get a comment from jpmorgan relative whether they jumped the gun. be that as it may, all of that irrelevant to the fact we will get the results at 4:30. and then i'm guessing after that, what i would prepare for is a series of releases from the banks about what will happen to their dividends, and shared distributions. their overall capital plans as approved by the federal reserve. >> a meltup in the markets. we were up 200 points a moment ago on the dow. just off the highs now. it is clear, this market is taking hard that the stress tests are going to show there has been improvement in the financial sector in this country as the banks continue to add to their balance sheets. and pick up those reserve requirements. >> yeah, for sure. you know, we're looking at a much healthier banking sector,

and certainly a sector that has a lot more capital, and wiggle room to handle the kind of stress that the federal reserve forced them to look at. these are very, very stressful gauges, by the way, that the fed put in place. 13% unemployment is part of that stress test, bill. >> when we come back, much more on today's stress test-related surge. which financials you might want to think about buying into right now. man, i'm glad aflac pays cash. aflac! ha! isn't major medical enough?

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welcome back to "closing bell." we're in the middle here of a significant breaking news story. jpmorgan right at the top of the 3:00 hour announcing that the federal reserve had approved a significant share repurchase program, and dividend increase. this coming before many of the other banks were prepared to do so. that moved up the fed's plan, we believe, to announce the stress test results. so now they will be coming out at 4:30 this afternoon. the expectation is it would come later in this week, wednesday, thursday was the bet for most people that was out there. so we're expecting after that to receive information from the individual banks about what they are going to do to the share repurchase. and all of this, of course,

maria and bill, igniting a rally that was already out in the market, but giving it significant legs, as we now look for greater share distributions, and dividends from the banking sector. >> steve, with about ten minutes to go here, we're up about the highs for the session right now, on the dow, a gain of more than 200 points. thank you, steve. joining us right now with his response to this latest bit of news that's causing this rally at this hour, john is with morning star. jim, are you as encouraged as the market seems to be right now? this market feels like it's starting a new leg here upward. do you agree? >> you know, i don't know if i would say i'm that encouraged. the market is known for jpmorgan as one of the better managed banks. i don't know that it was a surprise they were given authorization for a dividend increase, and a pretty large share repurchase. i think a lot of the u.s. banks are in good shape as far as capital. it will be interesting to see the more troubled banks,

citigroup and bank of america, what the results are for those two banks, and how they managed to pitch it. >> i don't want to put words in your mouth, you sound a little skeptical about this rally. are you saying you want to take profits on this rally, or what are you doing here? >> when we look at the bank stocks, they've been on a pretty good run the last few months here. last year when we looked around the banking universe, the only banks that looked cheap were the biggest banks with the large ibanking operations. late in 2011, all of tholgs banks have run up. we do think the big banks are cheap. there is probably some room to run there. at the same time there are a lot of unsolved problems. you know, greece may be coming, you know, getting behind us. but the other countries, italy, spain, those problems are still unsolved. the european banks, their funding problems have been solved. but there still may be capital issues there if they're forced

to take losses on some of their other sovereign debts. there's still a lot to worry about. it might be time to start scaling back, or be cautious about getting in. >> for a while we were positioning this as the fear versus fundamental market. fear being what was going on in greece, and the rest of europe, and as they wrangled with the debt crisis, the fundamentals on what's going on with our economy. don't you believe the markets are now trading on the fundamentals. things are improving here in the sufficient economy. isn't that why we're seeing the kinds of rallies we're seeing right now? >> i think you're right. there's definitely cause for optimism. when you look at the banks, they're clearly in a much better position than they were a few years ago. jpmorgan making money in a good capital position. they have the money to spend on buybacks and dividends. there's definitely reason for optimism. you know, but i still think a lot of the reasons for fear are not out of the way yet. you know, there's -- i wouldn't put all of my fears behind me just yet. >> jim, thanks very much. jim senegal of morning star

joining us. maria? >> to recap here. this market is really soaring in these final few minutes. the dow jones industrial average now at the highs of the day, up better than 200 points. led by a 7% rally in jpmorgan. jpmorgan late in the day, about 3:00 p.m. eastern, announcing it's raising its dividend to 30 cents a share, up from 25. and $15 billion in a buyback plan saying they did get the blessing from the federal reserve. that triggered the federal reserve to come out with an updated schedule in terms of releasing the fed's stress test. we were expecting the stress test results later on in the week. now we're being told by the fed that they will announce the details of the stress test today at 4:30 p.m. eastern time. we know that a number of banks have been wanting to raise their dividend, but they have been held back by the fed, saying that not to do so until the stress tests were complete. so we are expecting more dividend increases from the banking sector.

the question of citi is one that is being debated. certainly many people expect wells fargo and goldman sachs even to raise dividends. and we're waiting on bank of america, which seems to be the troubled one of the group. and has already said that they will likely not be moving in that direction. the market, bill, up better than 200 points, as we approach that closing countdown, where we are looking at just a few minutes before the closing bell sounds. >> the charts tell the story here, maria. it has been a breathtaking rally just in the last hour or so. we had a pretty good gain going already on the dow industrials. the retail sales numbers and all helped this morning. the fed announcement and everything. but it was after the jpmorgan announcement that it really gained some traction here. it's very much a risk-on rally today. so as the stock market goes higher, look at what happens with the yields in the treasury markets. the ten-year yield going up. they sell the treasuries to buy the stocks at this point. look at the dollar. the dollar was stronger today

anyway. it hit an 11-month high against the yen, and it took off at this point. when the dollar goes higher, what happens to the price of gold. watch this. we talked about this earlier with abigail doolittle. down $30 at $1669 below what she saw as a support level. something is going on here. you wonder, the vix, we pointed this out earlier, the vix today hit a low we hadn't seen since june of 2007. it hit that low four months before the market peaked. so you wonder now, with the vix hitting this low, that we haven't seen in five years, if it is foreshadowing something going on in the market. i want to show you one other chart i've been following very carefully. if you know what the bollinger bands, they were defld by john bollinger of the financial news years ago that measures volatility in the market. the wider the bands, the greater the volatility.

and it works every time. when you get a narrowing of the bands, as we're seeing right now, this is the dow, with the bollinger bands attached to them, the narrowing of the bands always leads to a breakout. the problem is, you don't know which way it's going to break out. so we've got this narrowing. i will say, though, with this rally today, we are breaking above the upper band. does that mean we're going to get a rally to the upside? that remains to be seen. you wonder whether oil can spoil that. the price of oil continues higher today. wti crude at $106. if it goes high enough, that could spoil things, as it slows the economy down. but on the other side, if yields continue to move higher, here as they are, maybe we'd see more money come out that's been sitting in the treasury markets, essentially dead money for all this time and take on that risk at this point. one more thing to look at, the sectors today, it's all about the financials. very strong gain. almost 4% for the financial sector.

technology not far behind, with a gain of almost 2%. let me bring in warren meyers, veteran trader on the floor here. what does this rally feel like today? >> it feels like a real momentum booster. we've been trying to break out either way. we've pushed to the upper levels a couple of times and never were able to get through. we had good economic news out of germany. we had the fed. then this bank news is tremendous. >> it comes at a time we've already had a pretty good rally from the october lows. we're already building a high here. >> the only way to break through into new territory is to come through with some gusto. >> let me bring in bob pisani. we'll hear from the fed in about a half an hour and you wonder if that will have an impact on tomorrow's market. >> expectations are very high for a lot of these banks. citigroup people think there will be a gigantic buyback. jpmorgan is the best house that's out here. i'm a little concerned the expectations may be too high. >> warren meyers, always good to see you. that is it for the first hour of the