tv Mad Money CNBC March 15, 2012 11:00pm-12:00am EDT
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index as a measure of whether the industrials are telling the truth, the old axiom i like to follow is if the transports don't confirm the movement in the dow, meaning support it with their own positive action, then you might be witnessing a false move higher, to make me, an older guy who has traded since
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the late '70s truly sanguine about the market. you need the rail stocks, csx, the shippers, united parcel, federal express, the airlines and truckers like delta, jb hunt. they got to be all on the move up because they stand for the strength of commerce. it makes sense. think about this for a second. it's very rational. if you're going to manufacture and sell goods, you got to ship them somewhere, right? so these stocks are the best gauge of economic activity. when you transport goods and people at rising levels, that's how you know the economy is really humming. it's not just sitting around, it's being sent! but the transports index have been dragging horribly, diverging so badly from the dow that the bears have been pinging me saying hey, hey, you got to tell people to get out of this market because of the trannie diversions. that's code for, cramer, i'm short, so help me out by bashing the market.
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to which i say that cramer, like homey, don't play that. sure enough, today the transports exploded higher, much higher than the averages to the point where they're on the verge of taking out their highs here. the bears are banks the whole scenario on a collapse in the trannies and send all the yogi, the boo-boos, the gentle bens back into hibernation. rails have been the worst. as natural gas has come down in price, the weather stayed warm, the rails got crushed. not good. but today the rail execs explained the rest of products are going mad. they say the rails will make their numbers if not exceed them. oil prices isn't the price of crude lower on fears the governments around the world will open the strategic petroleum reserves.
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even though it was denied, the airlines took off anyway. short sellers cowered and then covered as bargain hunters came in. i don't think oil will come down until we as a nation broke opec's choke hold by switching to natural gas, something that could be done in just a few years if the government got behind it. still, to see the rails and airlines move up in unison was terrific. buyers swarmed into ups and fedex. the biggest obstacle goes poof. today it was supposed to be the day we were going to hear about the stress test and possibility we might see another round of big equity offerings by these incredibly deluded creatures. tuesday the government and the banks simultaneously jumped the gun on the news and there were
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shockers. ahead of the result, people placed big bets against bank of america being blessed by the feds and huge wagers on citigroup that it would get the go ahead to pay out a bigger dividend. got the exact opposite. when the stress test came out two days early, bank of america didn't need to raise capital and citigroup flunked. didn't even matter. after a quick initial collapse of the citi stocks, it's back to where it was. bank of america is roaring. and what bank is doing the best? one of the biggest failures, suntrust. my charitable trust, we've been buying suntrust. it's just not that bad. when even the failures go higher, you lose a ton of bearish ammo. they don't have a case. after the stress test results came out, they don't have it. we keep hearing the housing business hasn't turned, the good news is all anecdotal.
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i've been getting reports from home depot, lowe's and tractor supply, three housing and gasoline related plays that should be getting crushed, right? what am i hearing? that business is off the charts for the month of march. the numbers are so incredible that you know these runs are far from over. that's a slap right in the face of bears. if gasoline is so high, you want to cut out or cut back on discretionary spending, right? particularly food. but today chipotle and panera both his 52-week highs. so important in this market because the oils are becoming a bigger part of the s&p 500. given crude's decline today, you'd expect the stocks to get clobbered, right? but the vast majority moved up, led by deep water drillers of all things.
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finally, how about the disarray, lead story in the f.t., the financial times, about the disarray about china. the shanghai market, it got hammered! i immediately saw bearish bets being places on the conference and those two 2010s of chinese capitalism, cummins and caterpillar. giant exporters to china. of course not everything can be perfect. i'm sure the bears will come out tomorrow and point to the lagging performance of apple and its key reversal today as it hit 600 before rolling back to 585 and change. i expect to hear chatter tomorrow about how tech is too high. to which i say if i know this market by next week, tech will burst out to the up side, too, because the bulls will have answers. the bottom line is this market seems to sense the objections of the bears, it takes them all in, it bends to their wishes for a
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few days and then just like that, snap! the bears are caught in the jaws of their own logic. today we left behind a whole bunch of hobbled and dazed kodiaks. wondering what the heck happened to their best arguments. bears, i got a message for you. look out, the bulls have your play book. they know your dens. they know where you hunt. they've got traps set just about everywhere you step. what can i say? right now the bulls, they're just plain smarter than the average bear. let's go to merrell in ohio. merrell! >> caller: hi, jim, how you doing? >> pretty good, sport. how you doing? >> caller: good. i was reading a czechoslovakian cookbook and i discovered where booyah came from. >> really? >> caller: it's a stew made with
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vegetables and rabbit and squirrel and stuff like that. >> i was reading a book and it turned out to be mad. >> caller: cisco, is that a buy or hold or sell? what do you think is going on there? >> i'm confused myself. i said, look, i got to tell you, i need some focus. then i was talking to deborah borger, doing a video at thestreet.com and i said i don't know what they're doing, cisco. they're just spending money. my head is spinning around like reagan and there's green vomit spewing around cisco. paul in new york. >> caller: booyah to you. >> did you know booyah is from a czech cookbook? >> caller: we'll have to try that, as long as there's tasty cakes in there. >> tasty cakes and pies.
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send me some crimpets. >> caller: and we'll do it during a philadelphia phillies ball game. jim, i'm noticing the march madness going on and i'm looking at my picks for the elite eight and it looks like every one of those teams will be wearing nike uniforms and nike shoes. so the question is this -- about eight months ago you said nike might be turning into a cyclical stock. i just wanted to know did you change your position on that or are you holding firm? >> i think there's a lot of secular growth in nike and also cyclical. we have the olympics. you do get a cyclical up swing. let's just put it this way. they're in both worlds and both worlds are good, the cyclical and the secular. that's why nike is going higher. it's the best growth stock on my radar screen other than starbucks, whole foods, chipotle and mcdonald's. yes, i'm not giving up on that. chris in minnesota? >> caller: i like capital one.
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they're likely going to get hsbc. i saw their stock offering today. my question is do you like their move? >> stephanie link, the research director. she and i go back and forth to get into capital one. she's arguing, listen, you can't have it, it's not diversified if you have american express and capital one. i keep saying we have to get in on the second offering. turns out we're both right. this capital one has gone much higher. cof is the one to be in but american express, that ain't so bad either. the bears got caught in their own traps today. the transports are trucking. crude went down. the banks are bankable. the bulls it seems right now yogi and boo-boo, hey, hey, you're dumber than the average bull.
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"mad money" will be right back. >> coming up, urgent care. dr. cramer is pitting two health care plays against each other. which stock is the best medicine for your portfolio and which one will be admitted to the sell block? and later, drilling for tech. where's the real innovation these days? cramer's looking for a new breed of tech stocks. tonight a slick oil play that's taking a page out of apple's playbook. all coming up on "mad money."
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two of the most important are energy security and economic growth. north america actually has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. a large part of that is oil sands. this resource has the ability to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. at our kearl project in canada, we'll be able to produce these oil sands with the same emissions as many other oils and that's a huge breakthrough. that's good for our country's energy security and our economy.
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supposed to do about it? for years i've been recommending allscripts, mdrx, as the way to play the switch to electronic medical records, electronic prescribing, the health care technology shebang, bringing them into the 21st century. we've had the ceo on numerous times. but for some time allscripts has been lagging behind its main competitor. i realize now that after initially being right, we've been backing the wrong horse in this healthcare information technology work. that's why even though it's hard to do, we need to ask ourselves where we went wrong by backing allscripts and figure out whether cerner can be the better stock. there was a section of the stimulus bill that created a set of carrots and sticks to encourage doctors and hospitals
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encourage doctors and hospitals to adopt electronic medical records. if they can show the government they're using the new systems, they get a nice subsidy. if they don't, medicare/medicaid reimbursement rates will take a hit. it's the reason i got behind allscripts. turns out i was right about the theme but lately wrong about the stock to trade it with. i think our main mistake with allscripts was we didn't do the comparison with cerner earlier. allscripts has given you a 124% gain. but it's not better than the quadruple you could have gotten if you bought cerner. cerner has kept on soaring. empirically we backed the wrong guy. the worst thing you can do is come out here, compound your
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mistake and dig in your heels. i'm going to eat crow and put allscripts on the sell block. the reason i'm making this change -- i got a bunch. first, execution. cerner has been fabulous, while allscripts has lots of hair. we say a company has no hair when there are no problems. cerner is bald and beautiful like me. there are three vendors with platforms integrated across inpatient and outpatient settings. they've developed more software in-house and have a big first mover advantage. their platform has been integrated offer a longer period of time than the others. people in the health care industry vastly prefer their system. they have superior technology, they install with less glitches. we get a lot of data and have
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done a lot of reporting on this. originally allscripts catered to outpatient settings like doctors offices. back in june of 2010 they bought eclipsys, which gave them exposure to the hospital business. since then they've had problems integrating their platform with their own. and allscripts has a large number of different versions of its software on the market. cerner doesn't have these problems. you would see repeatedly this was pointed out when i talked about allscripts last. when you look at the hospital market, cerner has about 13% market share. this matters. they already have a built-in advantage. about 52% of the hospitals in america use at least one of cerner's applications. third, visibility, which is what portfolio managers want so badly.
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cerner can already predict 75% of its earnings about a year into the future. it means management has a great handle on its business. allscripts, however, has a lot of trouble managing expectations. you can see this from the last quarter reported, which is important for this business because it's the quarter where hospitals set their capital budgets and decide if they're going to switch it systems. cerner delivered a fabulous quarter. people talked about it like there was no end to it and the stock soared. the key metric is bookings. cerner is up 44% year over year, and this was the fifth straight quarter where management had beaten the high end of its own bookings guidance by more than $50 million. talk about underpromise and overdeliver. allscripts, let's just say they
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seem to be doing the opposite. they are overpromising and underdelivering. when allscripts reported on february 16th, they were up 26% year to year but below management's previous guidance. allscripts got bullish guidance the next quarter but at this point i'm getting skeptical. much of allscripts earnings growth came from cost savings this quarter and i didn't see enough organic sales growth like i did at cerner. cerner sells at 28% earnings. allscript sells at a paltry 14% earnings. it just looks cheaper because you get what you pay for. remember it's always worth paying up for the best of breed.
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i think it's clear it was wrong that i backed allscripts for too long. it's never too late to come in here and admit that you're off base. so tonight i'm blessing a buy of cerner. the mantra will always stay true for you. it's not about making friends. it's about making money. after the break i'll try to save you some money. coming up, drilling for tech. where's the real innovation these days? cramer's looking for a new breed of tech stocks. tonight a slick oil play that's taking a page out of apple's playbook.
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in a market where individual companies finally matter, it's important to know how to pick high quality stocks across all sorts of industries. i've been searching for tech stocks outside of the sectors. why am i bothering? simple. the market thinks about them the wrong way. my new tech names are undervalued because people think
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of them as apparel companies or chemical companies or engine makers when in fact they're really much more like the great growth tech stocks of old since they use proprietary technology to invent new markets and then dominate them from here to eternity. take national oilwell varco, nov. people see this national-oilwell varco as a commodity player, part of the commodity gas complex. if you look at the stock's performance over the last 12 month, it's pretty much traded in lockstep with the price of oil. it cannot be totally divorced from the oil and gas cycle. if iran decides to roll over and say uncle, the stock could be hammered. i think it's more likely that permanently elevated oil prices are here to stay and in a world
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where black gold is scarce, it's not just a play on the oil patch, it bigger than that. just as intel dominated chips and microsoft dominated software and apple owns the entire tablet mark, nov has become one of the dominant players because it has unparalleled technology. the other competitors can't keep up. think apple, they can't keep up. deep water drilling has only been possible since the mid '90s. first generation of deep water rigs were built in the late '90s. we saw a second wave of deep water rigs being built that were vastly superior. since then the company has delivered 62 floating rigs, highly advanced pieces of machinery, far superior to the
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first generation of deep water technology. how do they do it? for starters, they operate four technical colleges. they have their own higher education system, and they train hundreds of highly skilled service technicians to build the rigs. does that sound like an old metal bender, or is that a technology factory? all that expertise is coming in handy because we're experiencing a real renaissance in deep water drilling. earlier this week we heard from jim hackett, one of the most aggressive deep water explorers out there and according to him the deep water business is back and bigger than ever and here to stay. in part because of long lead times, and also there's a sense that $80 to $90 oil, bye-bye, thing of the past, which makes the price of deep water drilling more than worth the cost. 86% of the company's $10 billion backlog is for offshore equipment.
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a huge number of offshore rigs need to be replaced because of tightened safety standards and nov is winning the contracts after contract after contract. the on-shore drilling boom is starting to cool off. 90% of oil drilling equipment is provided by national-oilwell varco equipment. think of national-oilwell as being the windows of down hole drilling. they make the standard operating system the rest of the country can work with. they are working on a new rig control system to manage multiple automated tools from multiple companies. you can plug in tools for making
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connections, drilling optimization, stability and rig maintenance and national oil well's new control system will manage all of them to allow for full automation of the rig. technology, people. rather than needing to operate each independently, their system will be able to run them all together and they are working on a software development kit so other companies can write apps for the new system. that's like what apple does. if that's not tech, i don't know what is. the stock is going to be somewhat pegged to oil and gas prices. i'm agreeing with that. but i think it's seriously undervalued. it trades like a commodity play when it's a purveyor of highly proprietary technology. the health care technology company that makes robotic machines which turns average surgeons into brilliant ones, their technology makes up for the shortage of skilled surgeons in the country. national oilwell is very similar.
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their rig technology makes up the difference to allow oil companies to perform all different functions. the market just doesn't get what national oilwell varco does and is trading at a 61% discount to intuit surgical, even though the growth rate is the same. of course people are always nervous about the low price of natural gas having an impact on business, which is why the stock is only up 6% in the last 12 months despite a big rise in oil. but they haven't seen anybody backing off ordering for well stimulation equipment and land rigs. while the united states makes up 60% of revenues, it's only 16% of their backlog. they trade like an insignificant link in the oil food chain. this is an innovative technical
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company that makes deep water drilling possible. if you're like me and you think expensive oil is here to stay, you can buy national oil well on any of these couple dollar drops in crude that is going to be just regular iteration and you'll be able to buy this company at a huge discount to its technological value, which far exceeds what people think this old line company may be worth. let's go to dustin in iowa, please. dustin. >> hey, jim, big booyah from cedar rapids. >> hey, captain, how you doing? >> caller: doing pretty good. calling about enbridge today, enb. still a buy? >> no, no, this is a growth company. you're going to see various times things are not going to go right for them. you got to look at the ebitda. people say it seems very overvalued on earnings. it's not.
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its cash flow is terrific. i want to go to tom in california, please. tom? >> caller: booyah, jim. my stock is csx. until today this has ban real dog and a loser since i bought it last year. is there any catalyst on the horizon such as oil and coal shipments? >> csx did say some very good things today about not to worry about the business. they are talking about the housing and construction market growing and they will offset the cyclical and secular declines of coal. new tech knows no bounds. the latest "mad money" tech play, it's national oilwell varco. it is going to trade much higher.
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>> are you ready skee-daddy? it's time for the lightning round. marilyn in new york. >> caller: hi, mr. cramer. booyah! >> booyah, marilyn. what's going on? >> caller: i'd like your input on kft, kraft.. i like the stack business and the grocery business. ted. >> caller: booyah. i keep a small portion of my option for options trading. i'd like to get your thoughts on sodastream. >> i don't think it's the place to be. i know they had a new iteration. i think the stock is expensive. i worry about it. we had a great trade. we don't look back. don't buy. tommy in texas. tommy! >> caller: booyah to you, jim,
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from a hot, dry west texas, el paso. >> hit me with something. >> caller: how about conocophillips? >> i like it. i get tired of seeing people say it's not exciting enough. i like paint drying. the split up, which is going to happen very soon, is going to be great. my charitable trust owns that one as well as kraft. we think breaking up is easy to do. jay in california. >> caller: i was inquiring about nokia. >> as long as you inquire but don't pull the trigger. they are getting their butts kicked by everybody, but particularly apple. nokia is the anti-apple. stephen in colorado. >> caller: the only thing getting beat up more than my bracket is newmont mining. >> the miners are radically
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underperforming the price of the metal. i like gld but the miners are getting killed. please, please, stay away from the miners, own the commodity. mike in new jersey. mike! >> caller: cramer, this is mike from bayonne, new jersey. >> you're right around the corner. stone's throw. booyah. >> caller: i've been loading up on heckman and i'm in a house of pain. this just keeps on going down. >> here's what's happening. i said this on twitter repeatedly. this is not for the squeamish. this stock is going to go up over time. they've had to move their business to other places and because of that it had a shortfall. i think longer term we're going to be fracking in this country, not deep water fracking but we'll be fracking and i think very, very powerful trend you cannot move away from. you have to have a long-term perspective.
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doris in california. >> caller: hi. how are you? >> real good, doris, how about you? >> caller: thank you. jim, i would like to know your your price target long term for baidu. >> ma'am, i don't really use price targets. i like to use fundamentals. if the company is still cooking i think this stock is good because china is baidu. google is not allowed there. they have the power and google chose not to be there. let's go to vincent in new york. >> caller: yes, jim. happy anniversary. >> thank you very much, vincent. thank you. >> caller: i have here dvn. devon energy. >> it's a buy, buy, buy. people don't understand it. it's going toward oil.
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it's like anadarko. they are making a ton of money. that is the conclusion of the lightning round! [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles, like in a special ops mission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do.
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♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu. bulls look like they have the edge, right now it is. but we've learned not to put all our eggs in any basket, including a risky one. there's no reason to mess with this fundamental logic of diversification. because the next time the bear have their day, you'll be ready. that's why we play "am i diversified."
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you call me and tell me your top five holdings. jim in south carolina. what do you have? >> caller: thank you, mr. cramer. alabama roll tide booyah to you, sir. >> thank you, chief. >> caller: thank you. my top five holdings were apple computer, qualcomm, hewlett packard, frontier communications, and cimarron energy xec. >> we got to do surgery here. hewlett packard, apple and qualcomm are all tech. and qualcomm is in the apple, the new ipad. we're going to have to reluctantly sell qualcomm and sell hewlett packard, which i don't want anyway. it's tech. i'd rather see you in wynn communications and cimarex oil and gas.
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we got oil and gas, telco, computer. we need to have a financial and i'm going to suggest you get u.s. bank corp and my charitable trust owns that and a health care one. i'm going to suggest abbott. you make those changes and i'll feel much better about your situation. let's go to rosemary in missouri. i do have missouri to go deep in the tourney. >> caller: a big booyah to you from the show me state. >> show me, show me. you better get to the elite eight. >> caller: i'm new at this and i just need your advice. i have a buy for you, it's chesapeake, chk, ford, spectra, i just got microsoft and agnc. am i diversified? if not, what do i need to do? >> you're new at the game but i think you're pretty savvy. ford, the oils have been breaking out. ford can do it. microsoft, you have tech. that's all right. good balance sheet, lots of cash.
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i like windows 8. chesapeake and spectra energy, this is more of a pipeline and a producer. that's okay. and american capital is doing well. you have financial, auto, tech, pipe, i think that's terrific. let go to jim in michigan. >> caller: hello, sir. i've got t, fcx, f, dd and intc. >> we can do that. we'll desymbolize that. we got dd, dupont. the stock is really breaking out. please miss coleman, come on the show. intel, a great yield, at&t, high yielding telco. giving up on freeport, they feel
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there's too much comer. i get to differ. i think the stock can go to 45. ford auto. bingo, i like the way it's played. now we're going to brandon, my old home state of pennsylvania. firing up the energy here. brandon. >> caller: how are you? my five companies are bank of america, dr horton, ford, st. joe company and solzon. am i diversified? >> wow, people sure do like ford here. two housing plays, we'll deal with that in a second. solzyn experimental biofuel, bank of america. bank, auto, real estate, real estate and let's call this biotech/oil. i want to get rid of st. joe and
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insert here, let's go to honeywell. let's put a diversified manufacturer. i think honeywell is a terrific situation, even though it's right off the 52 -- two points off the high. john in california. john. >> caller: jim, booyah from the stock club in sacramento, california. i loved your seventh anniversary show yesterday. >> i was at the intersection with my car but i love sacramento. >> caller: okay. at&t, cirrus logic, emerson electric, phillip morris and raytheon. >> i thought the people in sacramento had horse sense. this confirms it. phillip morris, raytheon, i like it.
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here's a chance to create jobs in america. oil sands projects, like kearl, and the keystone pipeline will provide secure and reliable energy to the united states. over the coming years, projects like these could create more than half a million jobs in the us alone. from the canadian border, through the mid west, to the gulf coast. benefiting hundreds of thousands of families throughout the country. this is just what our economy needs right now.
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this morning demandware, a cloud play on internet commerce, and allison transmission, a maker of truck parts both came public. monday i said do your best to get some shares of the ipo. the company could be like a junior salesforce.com. i told you it seemed reasonable to pay up to $16 because it would be selling a little less than seven times sales. trade demand where prices exceed. it opened at $25.15, making it the most expensive stock of the sector. absurd level. later retreated to $23.59. how about allison transmission? it opened and quickly fell 30% below. it closed with a 1.7% gain.
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this has tremendous franchise in automatic truck transmissions. growing cohort in a growing area. i'm a big fan of cummins. hit a fresh 52-week high today. this morning lawrence dewey, allison transmission truck veteran ceo. he said despite the tremendous revival, the only in its fifth inning and this is not a preseason game, it's a real deal. we know from our work on westport innovations the natural gas truck engine maker and clean energy fuel that tons of trucks are being bought to comply with new emissions standards. how do these two ipos stack up against each other? demand ware i hope you were lucky enough to get in. automatic transmissions, i cannot possibly tell you stay in it. listen to steve miller, take the
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money and run. the aftermarket. allison transmission, on the other hand, represents genuine value and the fact that it didn't pop to a premium allows me to recommend it right here as a terrific investment on the resurgent truck business. the tortoise that is allison now has it all over the fast starting hare that is demandware. at this point i like the long-term stock prospects of allison transmission much more than demandware. from here on out, slow and steady wins the race. stick with cramer. [ male announcer ] this is the network --
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a living, breathing intelligence teaching data how to do more for business. [ beeping ] in here, data knows what to do. because the network finds it and tailors it across all the right points, automating all the right actions... [ beeping ] ...to bring all the right results. it's the at&t network -- doing more with data to help business do more for customers. ♪ carfirmation.
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only hertz gives you a carfirmation. hey, this is challenger. i'll be waiting for you in stall 5. it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in, the moment you land. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. let's understand apple took a breather. i heard a lot of people say, jim, apple. that is showing the whole market is going to roll over. they said oil is going to roll over. tonight is devoted to the notion
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