scenes for many years. >> and talking of wall street, i want to get your take on bank of america. maybe we can show people what is going on with this stock. it's just incredible. what do you think? run higher yields good for banks? >> i totally missed the run on this, but this thing has just been unbelievable. parabolic right now. i think if you're not in it yet, i would give it time and get a pullback. >> thank you, everyone. see you next week. welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm bob pisani in for bill griffeth. >> i'm maria bartiromo. we approach the final stretch. another day, another set of milestones to tell you about. the s&p 500 on track for the best week in three months. the dow industrials close to an eight-day winning streak, if we close higher. it's only an if, because the market is only up by five

points. but it would be the best run for the blue chips in better than a year. coming up on the "closing bell," we'll see if there is a real shift in investor sentiment under way. we approach the final hour here. the dow jones industrial average, a lot of action, but not too much change from where it opened up just about four points. we are looking at an expiration friday. volume a little bit better today. nasdaq under pressure here. it's been up and down throughout the session this afternoon. s&p 500 looks like this. with a gain of about 2 1/4 points. >> strength in the oil sector, crude above $107 a barrel. exxon mobil getting a big lift in the home stretch. more on today's movers in just a moment. >> let's get to the "closing bell" exchange. we're seeing a shift in market sentiment. there are signs investors are now beginning to move some money away from fixed income and into

equities. bob tracking the reallocation trade. bob, let's first talk about volume and what's going on right now. and that is tied to the triple. >> to a certain extent, yeah. volume this week i would say it's been good, not spectacular. we're doing about 4 billion shares a day. all the trading at nyse stocks. i think you have to discount today because of the quadruple witching. i think volumes are good. the move out of bonds, they're clearly selling bonds. up 14%. i think the evidence is putting money out of bonds, and into perhaps cash right now, as an intermediate step to see how things are going. >> we'll see. that's not going to get them any returns either. larry fink has been out on a campaign, telling people you are losing money if you're in the money markets, and if you're in bonds. >> he said go into stocks weeks ago. >> and it's nice to actually see some movement there. kelly, let's talk about the

higher costs that are starting to bite the bottom line. we're all worried about inflation here, where rates have been. what are you seeing? >> maria, it's inflation if you can pass it along to customers, but there's a question how much companies can do that. the end of the quarter looms and the first-quarter earnings season thae could be down year-on-year. just want to mention a couple of sectors to keep an eye on. materials, telecom, they could be posting declines double digits year-on-year. revenue is supposed to be up. sales up, earnings down, and costs have a lot to do with it. companies like pepsi have been those commenting about this. i think if you recall, southwest saying higher jet fuel costs might be a reason they might post a loss in the third quarter. >> we'll see if they pass this along to the consumers. that's what everybody's worried about. >> very muted still. up about 2.9% for the year. i think that's probably a little higher than some of the hawks would like to see an inflation.

but still, it's not skyrocketing. i think that's one of the reasons we're getting this gentle lift in the stock market. if we see boom, boom, up in inflation, i think that will be a little bit of a headwind for stocks. >> kelly, what do we need to focus on for next week in the economy? >> earnings data, not much on the econfront. the focus will be on the housing market. the whole question is going to be, yeah, there's been a pickup in the housing market and housing market lately. is it seasonal and how much is it keyed into the mortgage rates. it's going to be all about housing. >> i think three or four reports on housing, bob. do you think we'll start seeing that move pick up in the housing stocks? >> yeah, they're at new highs. housing stocks are at new highs. the early indications for spring home buying season are good. order rates are up 20% to 30% over last year. trafficking going on. the stocks have anticipated these kinds of improvements.

we're getting them now. the question is, can these stocks go a lot further from here. they're underowned, underappreciate. the whole stock market is underowned and underappreciated. >> even though the money's been moving into the stocks -- >> home building stocks are valuated on book-to-price. overall i would say, yes, they're about one and a quarter book times price. probably fairly valued. >> bob, let me ask you this, what are you expecting at the end of the day here? because of the triple witching expiration, what do you expect we'll see around quarter to 4:00? >> we'll see big volume pickups as we go into the close. we traditionally don't see price fights. that's one of the things that have kind of gone away over the years. we'll see a rebalancing in the s&p 500. some stocks will be going out and some stocks will be going in. even there, they manage these closes very well now. it's very hard to spike the index, or play with the indexers at the close.

i think the important thing is, this week, maria, cyclical stocks have done terrific, even as interest rates have gone up. that's a sign of more confidence in the global economy. >> that's a great point. kelly, thanks so much. >> thanks for having me. >> less than an hour to go in the trading day. mary thompson at the realtime exchange with all the details. >> hey there, bob. let's look at the s&p 500 heat map. it pretty much tells the story of today's trade. it's pretty much split along the green and red. nevertheless, the s&p is on track for its fifth straight weekly gain. like the dow and nasdaq, its biggest weekly gain in 12 weeks. energy is leading the way. a rebound in crude prices. materials are also stronger. as you can see, a little over half a percent there. to the down side, we're seeing we miss utilities, consumer discretionary health care and consumer staples. investors moving away from some of those defensive plays that they've been investing earlier. among the standout stocks within the sectors in energy, it's coal

stocks. they're rebounding from yesterday's decline due to a slide in natural gas prices. and electricity by coal more expensive than that by natural gas. alpha natural resources up 4.8%. also, new core leading the gains among the materials stocks today. strong long-term demand for steel. it and some rivals came out and warned that first-quarter results would miss estimates. stock up just about 1.6%. maria, back to you. >> mary, thank you so much. have a nice weekend. bob has noted that money is moving out of treasuries, and moving into stocks. yields, of course, set to close out the week with the biggest gains since last july. over to you, rick. >> no matter what part of the yield curve you look at, in varying degrees, we're seeing rather large moves up. but really, the bulk of it starts right around the

five-year. as you look at the one-week charts, you can get a sense whether it's fives that close under 90 and now at 112 basis points. a 2.03 close last week, now closing in on 2.30 on tens. the bond market around 3.17, 3.18 last week, covering a bit above 3.41. these yields aren't at their extremes of the week. we're close to 3.50 yesterday, nine basis points higher in the 30. we've been at 2.36 at the ten. and major part of this story is that it only isn't in the u.s. boon yields had a 25-basis point jump. and boy, just in a few short weeks it went from under 2% to close to 2.5%. so we need to monitor this. there is one issue that i and jim uri referred to, think about stocks that are locked up with the treasury locking up such big

positions. makes this move hard to handicap. back to you. >> thanks very much, rick. 50 minutes to go before the closing bell. dow jones industrial average kind of flat today. nasdaq same situation. but look at throughout the week, s&p 500 up 2.5% this week. >> you going to get an ipad? >> i'm getting a new one tonight as a matter of fact. i have one, it's a little slow, but i just got an e-mail this afternoon. >> everybody's going crazy for the new apple ipad today. verizon and at&t, we'll get that trade next. >> citigroup failed the fed stress test, but coming up in "talking numbers," we'll break down the charts to see why the stock may be a better buy. >> fedex, one of the big banks to deliver earnings next week. we round out all the economic data that could impact your investments in the weeks to come. >> as we head to break, this is how the s&p heat map is shaping up. we're seeing more red than green. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

it's kind of hard to make decisions by yourself all of a sudden, when you have been making them with somebody else for 35 years. i guess there is something in me that has always been strong. i've always gotten through some pretty rough stuff without falling to pieces. ♪ ♪

welcome back. with about 45 minutes to go in today's trading session, time for a quick market "state check" on the dow. dow industrials bouncing in and out of positive territory. we were up to 31 points at the opening. best weekly gain since december. right now, the dow jones industrial average, you can see down four points, trading in a relatively narrow range, up as much as 36 points, down as many as 14. let's look at the leaders on the dow at this hour. bank of america, alcoa, travelers and chevron all posting very nice gains. that's a nice little assortment. energy stocks, terms, financials. that's the group. there's your big gainers this week. bank of america has almost doubled, maria, from $5 just a couple of months ago. >> well, i mean, yesterday apple hit $600 a share, actually.

today we are talking about the stock obviously -- >> $600. >> there was a comment that it was going to $600. and it was rallying close to it. i don't think it actually hit $600 yesterday, did it? >> i've been living under a rock, frankly. >> it hit $600 yesterday. we're looking at the stock now at $5.84. the ipad is out. bob, if you were living under a rock, you might have missed the news. the company has another block buster out. jon, apple was up $500 last week, and yesterday hit $600. >> yes, indeed. a lot of people still looking at the valuation saying, hey, not necessarily that expensive. this ipad, though, will still cost you $500 at the base price. they were lined up here this morning, about a little over 150 people when the doors opened. now is the lunch hour so there's

a little bit more of a line forming. not as long as the lines for the ipad 2. they did preorders this time. they launched ten countries this week, 25 more coming next week. they also launched this at the beginning of the day instead of at the end of the day, so people coming throughout the day as we see here. the significance of the ipad, apple sold 15.4 million units last quarter for $9.2 billion in revenue. that makes this its second largest revenue producer behind the iphone. the ipad is now at that level. sales are up more than 100% year over year. this current quarter is going to compare to the 7.3 million that they sold in the year ago quarter. question is, could this current quarter for ipads just be as big as the holiday quarter was selling 15 million units? the trend would suggest it might be. with the demand we've seen, the signs look good, maria.

>> jon, this american life is one of the most listened-to broadcast. in china, there's a fabrication. what do you think about this developing story? >> very interesting story, maria. to clarify what's happened here, the issue is that the one-man show, this guy mike barry, this one-man show in new york fabricated some details about his trip to china. now, there are still some issues with labor in china. "the new york times" has documented, including some underage working, too much overtime. things like that. some accidents that they've had in the factories there. all those things are still facts. but this man with the one-man show said things happened when he met with a number of underage workers, that he met with a group of workers who had been injured, saying chemical, that hadn't, he didn't actually meet with, so he took a lot of dramatic license and actually told some untruths to this american life. and that's what they are retracting. it wasn't journalism what this

guy was doing, it was entertainment, maria. >> we'll keep watching that. jon, thanks so much. jon fortt. if you're not eyeing that ipad from an apple store, then you're likely heading to the at&t or verizon store to buy it. the ipads 2 sold some as wi-fi only. the ipad explosion, to join us with their take, kevin smith. good to see you guys. thank you so much for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you. >> you like verizon? >> i think verizon benefits initially more than at&t does. they have a larger lte network. given that the ipad is the first to work on lte, it gives them more of a marketing advantage. >> kevin, if it comes down to the expanse of the lte network, does the ipad 4 improve it faster? >> the at&t has raised cap backs

for lt this year. we think they will build as aggressively as they can to try and catch up with verizon. so far verizon covers about two-thirds of the u.s., at&t about one-third. that gives verizon the advantage and we think they'll sell about 3 million to 4 million ipads this year. and at&t will sell about 2 milli million. >> if they're not getting their data plan with the carry yeersz, what do the careiers need to sell more data plans where the premiums are much higher? >> part of the challenge is that the device that is capable of using the data plan is more expensive. since the ipad for the device that's primarily used in fixed locations, it will tend to have wi-fi, the home, airports, things like that, it's a little less compelling to have a data plan associated with it. one thing we think carriers will start doing in general is

bundling buckets of bits the same way they do with minutes with family plans. it's no longer having to buy a plan for your ipad. that becomes part of the plan that you buy for your ipad, smartphone and maybe your family's devices as well. >> what other companies outside of these carriers wen benefit indirectly? >> we like the tower companies, particularly crown castle and american tower, as at&t and verizon have to add lt capacity to match this demand. they're going to have to go and put more equipment on their towers. and that's very good for american tower and crown castle. we think both of those stocks have significant upside over the next 12 months. >> okay. and are there any sort of indirect beneficiaries beyond the obvious cariers? >> i think the cariers and one other tower stock is telecommunications. tower stocks are the only businesses that benefit from the growth of wireless data in an

unalloyed way. the carriers have to incur the cap backs. the towers, it's a pure benefit. >> thanks so much, gentlemen. we'll see you soon. >> thank you. about 40 minutes to go before the closing bell. dow jones industrial average slipped into negative territory. we were up as much as 31 at the open. nasdaq flat here, maria. >> the tale of two banks, jpmorgan passing the fed stress test, citi not passing. >> later in trade, we'll show you why copper is set to break out its current resistance level. >> look at the major commodity sectors and how things are trading there. [ male announcer ] to the 5:00 a.m. scholar.

the two trains and a bus rider. the "i'll sleep when it's done" academic. for 80 years, we've been inspired by you. and we've been honored to walk with you to help you get where you want to be. ♪ because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu.

♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] not everything powerful has to guzzle fuel. the 2012 e-class bluetec from mercedes-benz. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.

welcome back. less than an hour to go in the trading session. financials have been huge all throughout the week. what did the charts say about the biggest winners and losers. what a week for the banks. you have a steep in the yield curve, money returning to investors. jpmorgan obviously the big name of the week. does it have any further to go at this point? >> obviously the big news the stress test. jpmorgan, look at the chart

historically, it had been in a downtrend. traditional downtrend, we're connecting the highs. lower highs and lower lows. but we break out of that around the december time frame. we break out to a new uptrend in jpmorgan. now what we're in is an uptrend. jpmorgan has a nice uptrend channel. what we're starting to see with the results of the stress tests is we've broken out above that channel. looking at other indicators, we also see a buy. >> what do you see looking at this, it's clearly overbought, when it blows past the numbers that we've had back in 2011? >> no, i'm not saying that it's long term overbought, i'm saying short term it's gone too far too fast, traditional overbought condition. i think it's going to correct. i think there may be better names to look at. >> let's look at citigroup here. another stock that had a big run since bottoming out in november, december. somewhat similar, but not quite

the steepness. >> not quite the steepness. it didn't break out until much later. it only broke its prior high recently in the march time frame. but the key difference here is, we're in an uptrend now with citi, but citi hasn't broken out of its uptrend channel. it's not overbought the way we see with jpmorgan. >> the wombottom line is -- >> the bottom line is, if you overlay the two charts, you clearly see jpmorgan perhaps has gone up a bit too far too fast. overbought. citi has a nice steady uptrend. you would think citi didn't pass the stress test, that would be the worst stock. technically i think it's the better stock to be looking at right now. >> barry sign over at direction el hamill. i don't know if people know about your firm, you employ about quarter of your employees as disabled veterans. >> we are owned and operated by disabled veterans and about a quarter of our staff are disabled veterans out of iraq and afghanistan. >> that's noble and honorable. i know they're great workers.

they've done tremendous service to their country. >> we've got a market here that is right now down about three points. we've got just 35 minutes until the closing bell sounds for the day. s&p 500 on pace for the best week in three months. is there any more room to run for this market? or should you prepare for a pullback? we'll check that out next up. tomorrow is st. patty's day. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i'm constantly working my screens. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 checking the charts. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 looking for support, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 resistance, breakouts, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a few other tricks that i'll keep to myself. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's how i trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i do it all with charles schwab, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 because their streetsmart edge platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 helps me trade quickly, intuitively. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 staying on top of the market is key! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and the momentum tool,

tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it lets me do it at a glance, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so when things shift, i'm ready. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 then to track the stocks i have my eye on, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i turn to schwab's high/low ticker. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so i can spot a potential breakout tdd# 1-800-345-2550 before it breaks out. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and get this...i can even trade, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 change my orders or check out my positions tdd# 1-800-345-2550 right on my chart. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 my system works for me. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 does yours work for you? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 get streetsmart edge tdd# 1-800-345-2550 from charles schwab for $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up tdd# 1-800-345-2550 to 6 months commission-free. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-239-3234 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and get started today.

i'm bertha coombs. oil prices closing out flat on the week. but a real volatile session we saw actually prices surge here at the close. going into the weekend. and the fundamental issue remains tensions with iran. as of this weekend, iran will be cut off from the global electronic payment systems which will make it much more difficult for them to sell oil, even in advance of that july first

embargo that begins in europe. so that supports prices. and especially when you see that brent price move up above $125 a barrel, that also boosts prices when it comes to gasoline at the pump this week. seasonally record high of $3.83 a gallon this week. just about 30 cents below the all-time high set in 2008. with the numbers that we've seen out of cpi, the numbers that we've seen out of the michigan consumer sentiment index, it's certainly something, maria, that is front in mind when it comes to consumers. >> absolutely. bertha, thank you so much. bertha coombs. a pair of big moves in the telecom sector. bce is acquiring a company for $3 million. it expands its french language content. sprint nextel is now hanging up on the spectrum dealing with

light square. sprint, which is returning $65 million in prepayments is ending the deal because light squared network of the increasing likelihood that light squared's network has failed to win fcc approval because it allegedly interferes with gps navigation devices. bob? what a week it's been for the markets, bob. key milestones, s&p topped 1400 for the first time since june 6th, 2008. the dow is on pace for its best weekly winning streak in one year. right now it is about 900 points away from an all-time closing high. >> that's right. 5% and 6%. absolute amazing when you think about it. here to weigh in, david darst at morgan stanley smith barney, along with david pearl, epic investment partners. david, i've been saying all week, which side of the growth

equation are you on, china above 2% or below it? where are you? >> we're in a worldwide slow growth economy. europe's tipped into recession. china is going below 8%, although that's why they're stimulating to get back out. u.s. looks better than all of that. but we're still, i think, really around 2%, not much better this year, because indicators are if things are beginning to slow yet again, consumer confidence isn't high with gasoline prices up and wage growth just hasn't been there. we're in a very moderate growth environment in the u.s. valuations are now higher, because we've just had a big rally. same thing happened last year. the market was up double digits in the first two, three months. we had three corrections last year and ended the year flat. maybe a little better we'll be up for the year, but i don't think it will be a high double-digit year. >> fixed income versus stocks, we're noticing yields are moving

up, money is coming out of bonds. do you think the fear that's been gripping investors for so long is finally getting allevia alleviated, taking it out much cash and putting it into stocks? >> when you make the value fixed income at zero, people move from treasuries to corporates to junk. they're kind of forced into equities. i think this rally reflects that already. >> do you agree? >> maria, the cash yields has been zero for the last year. we've got cash, the individual household of cash, $3 trillion in cash. call it 500, it's almost like gasoline at $8 a gallon, the unearned income on the yields. so we can see yields rising. it's actually a good thing. it means the patient is recovering to help. we think interest rates have

been way too low. it's been the only stimulus spigot they've had. it's a sign of health. >> we agree. everybody agrees that mr. bernanke is not going to be nervous at $2.25 on the ten-year. at what point does he start getting nervous? he said 2014 rates would stay low. if we pop to 2.75%, don't you think mr. bernanke will start sweating a little bit? >> the question is whether rates are going up because the economy is getting stronger, or because of inflation pressures, as david pointed out. almost every raw material is going up. and outside the u.s., labor even in china has gone up double digits, 20% per year. so the question is, can u.s. companies pass through price increases when the consumer has no wage increase. that's where we've had this problem in demand in the u.s. i think that's really going to put a damper on u.s. gdp growth. >> markets change when beliefs change. there were three strikes that are going to be thrown at the markets 10, 12 weeks ago.

china was going to have a hard landing. we're a little higher than david is. we're at 8.4% for this year. he's below 8%. u.s. double dip, and number three, there was going to be a meltdown lehman style in europe. all three of those pitches had not come over the strike zone. they've been three balls. >> what about europe, is that still an issue? >> it definitely is, maria. that's one of the six pieces. portugal, looking at the yields at 14%. greek implementation is part of the worry. the banking sector needs reform. so europe is not out of the woods by any means. this is a postponement of the longer term issues in our opinion. >> are you in the moderate recession camp and they muddle through with a lot of liquidity or more severe recession? >> our number is for lower than -- a .9, negative 5 to .9 next year. so very slow growth. a couple of tive. we think they're in recession.

we agree with david. >> thank you, gentlemen, very much. we'll see you at 4:00. 25 minutes to go before the closing bell. dow jones industrial average actually we are sitting right by the lows for the day, down about 12 points or so. >> we're talking about cashing in on copper next. we'll show you why a recent rally in copper may just be getting started. >> after that bell, does a company with tons of cash, virtually no debt add up to a winning combination? no, it's not apple. one tech stock meets those criteria. but first, before we go to break, the "dividend." which stock is the better performer this year? kenneth coal productions, liz claiborne or ralph lauren? the "dividend" pays off after the break. ♪

[ male announcer ] aggressive new styling. a more fuel-efficient turbocharged engine. and a completely redesigned interior. ♪ the new c-class with over 2,000 refinements. it's amazing...inside and out. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services.

just before the break, as part of the "dividend," we asked which stock is the better performer this year? kenneth cole productions, liz claiborne or ralph lauren?

now, the payoff. kenneth cole productions, which has gained about 50% so far this year. welcome back to the "closing bell." we're watching shares up nearly about 6%. some reports are suggesting that the lack of a quarter early profit is are affecting sentiment. susquehanna saying there is pin risk potential. we are seeing the stocks at those levels. that means the stocks could be pinned to a strike price. >> things are worsening a bit here. about 20 minutes left until the closing bell sounds for the week. the dow down about ten points. the nasdaq is see sawing all day today. trying for a four-day winning

streak. and its best weekly rise since february 4th. so far, no cigar. the nasdaq in negative territory, slipping as many as nine points early on, now down just about two. the vix trading to the down side all day, just about at session lows today. the vix down 1.5 points at 1383. that is the lowest level since 2007, bob. >> i want to put that up again. something strange just happened to the vix here. we were trading about 14.6, maria. literally in the last minute and a half it just went down. i'll make a phone call and see what the heck happened there. that's a little odd here late in the day. let's move on here. copper, ready to break out past resistance level. the next guest says we're very close to it. we want to close above 390. that's the level we need to get above. darren is here. what's the trade here? if we get over 390, that would be the highest since august or

september of last year? >> it wouldn't be the highest, but we've had this little resistance. it's essentially from the highs over the summer, all the way through the highs over the fall. 390 is kind of the intersection point. i would really like to see us close above 395 to confirm the move to the upside. >> move on here. let's talk about other things. how about natural gas and coal names. do you want to talk about pea body? the coal names have done nothing all year. what's from here? >> absolutely. nat gas and coal names have been mush all year long. but we're actually getting some interesting seasonal effects. you have a lot of inventory that are in reservoirs, that are in salt mines. a lot of that has to be pushed through into pipelines. and that pushing nat gas prices pretty much to a seasonal low. and as we look to the end of april, you really want to be in these nat gas and coal names for the summer heating season.

>> darren, we'll have to leave it there. we're running a little late here. >> thank you, bob. >> we want to point out a couple developments in the market here. the vix index is down to 13. we've not seen these levels since 2007. the volatility and the volume really weakening here in this market. volatility down about 10.5%, as you can see from this chart. the vix falling below 14. the lowest level since 2007. we are in the final stretch of trading. we've got celebrations going on down here ahead of st. patty's day. the dow jones industrial average is down about 15 points here. ibm, meanwhile, shares are hitting a one-year high today. we've got the options action trade on how you can keep cashing in on that rally in big blue. stay with us. >> apple has hit $600 a share. >> there's a report on reuters that britain has agreed to

release strategic oil stocks. >> all this has happened in the last six or seven minutes. >> the obama administration is now knocking down this report. >> look at the spike in the airline index. frankly, it's been holding ever since. >> we've got a milestone for the s&p 500 index. today is gonna be an important day for us. you ready? we wanna be our brother's keeper. what's number two we wanna do? bring it up to 90 decatherms. how bout ya, joe? let's go ahead and bring it online. attention on site, attention on site. now starting unit nine. some of the world's cleanest gas turbines are now powering some of america's biggest cities. siemens. answers.

[ male announcer ] the draw of the past is a powerful thing. but we couldn't simply repeat history. we had to create it. introducing the 2013 lexus gs, with leading-edge safety technology, like available blind spot monitor... [ tires screech ] ...night view... and heads-up display. [ engine revving ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back.

welcome back. bob pisani here. i want to put up the vix. it's been a little weird this week in general, but we dropped down to about 13.7 here. the lowest since 2007. the vix measures the near-term. if you look at the vix curve, look at vix futures, you see around 27, go out to september and 21.5 in april. this is a more realistic way to look at things. i wouldn't pay that much attention to the cash. maria, look further out on the curve and you'll see there is still concerns about higher volatility out there. maria? >> thanks so much, bob.

coming from the post of diaggio, trades under the symbol deo. we're looking at action in the stock here. the drink maker's brand includes walker and guinness. the company is teaming up with the new york city department of transportation for a month-long safe rides home campaign. to promote responsible alcohol consumption. free pre-paid cards, $18, will be distributed at various points across new york city. the city's 13,000-plus taxis participating, as well as ticketing machines and public transportations including the nta, pac train and the city transit. shares trading just under 52-week high of $97.76 a share. you saw where the stock was a moment ago at $96.25.

up 30% just in the last 52 weeks. joining me on the floor at the post is sheila, the president of diageo. thank you for joining us. you're ringing the bell in celebration of st. patty's day. how important is st. patty's day for your business? do you see a spike around the month of march? >> we really do. st. patrick's day is one of the friendliest holidays of the year, and a chance for new consumers to come into the brand and give guinness a try. there will be about 3.5 million consumers who raise a pint of guinness sometime tonight and tomorrow. >> you're actually in charge of diageo beer business in the united states. how do you plan to grow that business? >> a big part of our growth strategy is all about innovation. i think the best example of innovation in the beer space right now is guinness black lager, a light, crisp,

refreshing lager beer that will be sampled tonight and tomorrow. it's more innovation than anything else. >> what about craft beer making. how do you tap into that? >> you know, a great tailwind for the guinness brand. because craft beers are all about bolder, stronger flavors. and guinness is a little bit about that, too. craft beer is encouraging more consumers to give guinness a try. >> are they buying? what are they doing in terms of spending money? are they buying premium or being a little more frugal? >> you know, the category that we call discovery beer, which is really small import brands with guinness being the best example, and then kraft beers. beers that have a story, beers that have an artisanal quality, folklore to them. that's the space that's doing very well. for diageo, that's working out well for us, that's the space where our major brand plays best. so we're happy about that.

at my house tomorrow, a big party and lots of guinness. >> we'll be there. sheila, good to have you on the program. >> thank you so much. >> we'll be watching tonight as you ring the closing bell. >> thank you so much. >> our next guest is betting big blue has lots more room to run. he said the only way to play it with options. brian stutland of the stutland volatility group. brian? >> hey, bob, thanks for having me again here. we talk about ibm, i think it's going to continue to run. look what it's done over the last year. it's been a leader in the dow. the ceo was out earlier this week saying ibm would hit the 2015 numbers. if they do that, the stock needs to move higher here. what i've been doing for clients right now is looking for stock replacement. rather than own a stock, buy a call. with time premium so cheap historically for call premiums, i want to own something like the april 200 call on ibm. you can pay about $8. all you need for the stock around $2.06 is to move up two

bucks from here. above there is all your upside profit potential. at the same time, on the down side, all i'm risking is $8. if we get a sell-off on biflt, we're risking $20 or more on the stock, all i have is the $8 time premium. this is a better risk/reward premium. this is my big blue trade. it's not just because the wolverines are going ahead in the ncaa tournament this weekend, but because ibm is a solid company. >> thanks very much, brian stutland. catch more options action tonight 5:00 p.m., followed by "money in motion" at 5:30. coming right back with the closing countdown. after the bell, believe it or not, pawnshops are going upscale. you'll never believe what some of the rich and famous are putting down for collateral for loans.

[ technician ] are you busy? management just sent over these new technical manuals. they need you to translate them into portuguese. by tomorrow. [ male announcer ] ducati knows it's better for xerox to manage their global publications. so they can focus on building amazing bikes. with xerox, you're ready for real business. here's a chance to create jobs in america.

oil sands projects, like kearl, and the keystone pipeline will provide secure and reliable energy to the united states. over the coming years, projects like these could create more than half a million jobs in the us alone. from the canadian border, through the mid west, to the gulf coast. benefiting hundreds of thousands of families throughout the country. this is just what our economy needs right now. omnipotent of opportunity. you know how to mix business... with business. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i could get used to this. [ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. in what passes for common sense.

used to be we socked money away and expected it to grow. then the world changed... and the common sense of retirement planning became anything but common. fortunately, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. take control by opening a new account or rolling over an old 401(k) today, and we'll throw in up to $600. how's that for common sense? welcome back. bob pisani down on the floor of the new york stock exchange. stock of the week, come on. got to be apple. what did we start at, $540 on

the week? we got up to $600. here's our faithful chart for the week. 6 $600.01. pull it back up here since december. i think we were at $350, $360. if you go back to december of last year, and of course, the move has been virtually parabolic since then. the important thing is, it's been an amazing run. ibm in a certain way has been even more -- there i'm right, $375 or so. just in a four-month period. ibm, another new high this week. $200 to $206. that's been a skal wart for the dow jones industrial average. in stom ways, this is almost more important because this has been with the price here at $200, a major influence on the dow jones industrial average. the vix, we get a lot of questions about it. my opinion now is don't pay that much attention to the cash vix at this point.

see what it's been doing throughout the day. it's been a very strange week. at the lowest levels since 2007. go out a little further and you'll see things are a little more volatile. we get up to 21, 22, the middle of the period here, april, may, and go up to 27 towards septber and october. let's move over here and talk to david darst and see what's going on. the big question on everyone's mind, is it time to short all those treasury etfs? >> bob, the yields want to rise. it's a sign of health. it's a sign of a recovering economy, the manufacturing, the new york state empire manufacturing index. we want to add to your apple and ibm that you just mentioned. you want to put microsoft in there. that's been doing well. let that ride and catch up. go with oracle, have some oracle in there. qualcomm is at the base of the cell phone. the reason this thing here, what intel was to microsoft, qualcomm

is to this. you cannot have this without qualcomm. so if you like apple, basically take a little bit out of apple and put it in qualcomm and microsoft. >> you're talking all tech here, though. what else have we got? >> that's the big tech. >> parabolic moves here. >> you also want to have some defensiveness. build in health care. get some yield in the portfolio. picks up excel energy, verizon, a little bit of yield, some nestle, j & j. everybody's focused on the apples of the world, so broaden it out a little bit. >> i've noticed utilities are under pressure as yields have moved up on the ten-year this week. >> you've pointed out that the transportation stocks have come alive this week, which has been good. they were up 3.3% yesterday alone. they're up 6.6% for the year. they've been nonconfirming until now. now they're showing a little bit

of underlying strength in the economy. markets don't change, but fundamentals change when beliefs change. that's really what it's been about. now we need to see the beef come alive in terms of better numbers. which you're getting a little bit. you're going to see a slowdown in this core, in the u.s. and china. we think that the economy will pick up in china, in the second and third and fourth quarter by stimulus. >> the guests you were on with earlier in the hour was worried about the inflation numbers. he sees input prices, very, very strong. he's concerned about it. how worried are you about inflation? >> we are in a massive secular deleveraging, disinflation cycle. and it's not our worry. you want to watch the money multiplier and money velocity. that has not picked up. yes, china is paying more for their workers now, but we don't see inflation. some day it will be an issue. >> the s&p at 1400, where should we end for the year? >> let it run for a