here here are tonight's top three trades. apple puts the cash to work. did apple go smaller to avoid the dividend curse and will anyone follow. with apple shares defying gravity, what's emerging? if you are sitting on cash, it is costing a lot. the president of black rock, the world's largest money manager will show you where to look for big returns. this is fast money, but first before we get to all the news, let's get $10. suddenly in the afternoon trade, they rolled over and speculation

of a possible secondary offering out there that took the stock down. eight kelly has the latest. >> a denial that b of a is getting an offering. they are kicking down the rumors. maria and i were talking about it and with the stock heading above the $10 level for the first time in a while, there was psychological moments there where speculateors were trying to kick it back down. there could be truth to that. the volume was as high as august of 2011. it had an impressive rally based on good news and the stress tests, etc. perhaps there were shorts in the market. impossible to tell of course. in any case, they are not going to do it. >> that may be the case, but it goes to show you that investors may believe that bank of america may in fact need to do a secondary offering. is there a basis to that?

>> never say never. they may consider it down the road, but right now i'm told there no plans for it. as you point out, this company has plenty of head winds they are dealing with. the mortgage issues are not resolved. $10 is a low valuation for a company of this potential. they touch one of two american households and have a massive retail business in trading and if banking heats up as well, they should be well-positioned. there is the rule to think about and the general slow down and they are trying to save billions by layoffs, some of which occurred today. the ceo has a lot on his plate. >> i agree. i can't see it happening in the short-term without there being a catalyst like a large settlement or something that hasn't yet been contemplated that would cause them to raise capital. it seems like it's not

necessary. >> one thing i heard is that they at one point were considering the stock. would that be a good move for the stock. it sounds like within the company, they are less interested in doing that now. >> i hate the stock split. it's almost never a good sign. >> the aig split. first of all, welcome back. don't you think it's strange that these guys feel the need to come to the market to say anything at least on a market move? it's a 4% interday move off of a high for a stock that is run big. i'm surprised they feel the need to get in there, but after this move and after the stress test results said they could have thrown the kitchen sink at these guys. why do they need to comment? >> this is a company that was traditionally not doing a lot with the press. they had a baptism between the recession and the mortgage issues and the leadership and etc.

maybe now they are playing with the idea of being more vocal with the public about what's going on. maybe they have gone too far, but when the speculation hits the market and we mentioned it in the rumor phase, i can see why it's worthwhile if they want to set the record straight. >> you came back on a bit of a stormy monday. have they painted themselves in a corner with this announcement? >> that's always the question. can they rule out that they would ever do it? of course not. they are telling us there is no plan to do this. like anything, they will reserve the right to review their options and of course it's something that can happen down the road. >> i'm curious about the reaction because there was very heavy volume and the thought that someone is out there to push the stock around and see such a sharp deterioration on heavy volume, it seems like a harder feat to accomplish if there is heavy volume to just explode a rumor that seems to e

be. >> citibank was over 3%. it's a tremendous run up for banks and the market. $10 on the stock is an option that a lot of people were targeting. >> exactly and with the move of bank of america today, a lot of them got over 10. if you look at it, bank of america is up 70% from the recent lows. going back a year, it hasn't hit the $12 level it has about a year ago. bank of america has room to run. >> the second piece is to see what the activity is around the time that the rumors exploded. did you notice anything unusual around the time that the rumors were floweding on the training floors? >> it's interesting that you asked that. kate points out how active the stock was. the options get mushy and it's

really tough to figure out which way the options want to go. the interesting thing is if you look later, you realize that the stock was active and the options were incredibly active. they were about for times as you would expect on a normal monday. the options got more expensive and about 5% more expensive. what that said is plenty of people are worried and they want to buy protection and plenty of people saw the pull back as an opportunity to get long and save themselves 5% from buying it at $10. there is something for everybody today. >> it's mike murphy. do you see as the options got more expensive, did you see an opportunity to take in the premium and selling some calls? >> even though the options got more expensive, they didn't get really expensive. if you are long on bank of america, you don't want to cap the upside given how well it's done and might do by selling

calls. i love selling the calls and it's doing well. >> thanks for that. thanks a lot for your analysis and your story. we have to move on to apple. that was a big story. the big dividend announcement. look at the tech names. this is the most cash compared to the market value. top on the list is google. the question here is does apple raise the bar and force the hand of other companies like perhaps a google and karen, that's a company that came to your mind. >> this is the conversation we had many, many times with these tech cash-rich companies. i don't know if it forces their hand. they are in the price for allocation until now. i don't know if it makes them do it. i think they should. i think that one of the knocks on google is the capital allocation to other parts of the businesslike the space and the solar program.

they are really sort of not on the core businesses. i would love to see them be more disciplined with the cash. one of the things is how much of the cash is u.s. and available to shareholders? if it's not in the u.s., you can't bring it back and do buy backs or dividends. if you look at the cash hort, about half and half. that gives them an awful lot aside from what they continue to make in their business. i don't know if they well, but if you happen to be watching for the space programs. >> you said before it was about $100 in cash? >> more. it's about 70ish of u.s. >> exactly. u.s. money embedded in google stock price. >> if you remember, we spoke midday and google and apple on this apple announcement were trading up approximately $10, give or take $1 or $2.

apple is trading up an additional $3 where as google tapered off that. adds pressure to keep up with apple. apple's first out with difdependent and who will be first out is the next thing. >> let's bring in bgc financial with more thoughts. he covers apple and you did the math and you said if you want to get to a 2% yield, you would pay $4 billion a year. why not? >> if they want to join the top five tech names and cisco and apple, they are all yielding and all paying dividends. google can take that out of existing cash flows. never mind their own cash balance. three billion in free cash can give a yield, but they are not likely to do it. they're inquisitive doing small and big deals.

look at the motorola deal. that is the cash they need to use. >> no wasted words. when do you warm up to the apple story. >> the run that apple had since they printed the quarter and it was a great quarter. we are up north of 30% since then. that's two drivers. the dividend announcement and the ipad 3 or whatever you want to call it. both of these things are not a major surprise. we are now concerned about the march quarter. this is hefty numbers to get hit. we just got that three million ipads sold at once. that's a good number. they need to sell about 14 million in the quarter alone. there is a lot of competition chasing after the space. it's a big market. i think that the expectations for apple make it right for a pull back. >>or this news of three million, the stock is up sharply in fact. >> sure. let's think about it simply.

we know that there could be supply constraints. if you order it now, you are not likely to get in the quarter. it will be in the next quarter in april. three million units and you roll out more countries, another three million units or so. if you want to get to 14 million units, you want to get another eight million or so sold in that january and february time frame. with the iphone 4, a slow down in steal sales can easily happen again. >> head winds with the stock and one of the things i thought was the most interesting today is where the cfo pointed out that apple is concerned about repatriating the dollars. they generated 37 billion in cash and a lot of this gets generated offshore and it's a very political issue. every tech company seems to talk about it and why are we not being more aggressive?

>> it's an interesting question and a major topic. we did have a tax holiday before and repatriation and mixed studies. did it generate a lot of activity and buy backs? perhaps there should be a compromise. i don't know the answer, but if they were allowed to bring that cash back, it would be a big plus for apple and cisco and microsoft and oracle and all those names. >> thanks for your time. always good to see you. the question with apple and with the rise in the after hours session, should you sell apple on this news. doug, right to you. you pointed out early this morning that on that dip on the news there was a sell on the news mentality that you covered your apple at this point. you say still sell it? >> i showed the stock in premarket trading around 6:05.

it's around 5.83. i'm short a small amount and will give you my thought process. i viewed the apple capital allocation announcement as microsoft does. if you go back to july 2004, you can use it for a template of apple. not with that stellar growth prospect was apple flushed with cash. they did it $75 billion capital move which is far greater than apple. they doubled the dividend and announced the buy back double the size. what did the stock do years ago? a gap from 28 to 29 1/2 and within two weeks is back down. >> isn't it comparing apples and oranges? >> that's funny, melissa. >> i didn't even realize. >> i felt before the announcement a safe move would

be the out come. i thought the residue of the job's influence on the board of directors would hold and as you discussed, i don't think people were thinking about this in the announcement. 2/3 of the company's cash hort was overseas. in spite of the stock would be a safe move. >> most people knew there was this overseas-u.s. issue. but what would it take for you to be positive on apple? >> i don't see what is not known at this point. the response from the analytical munt was not surprising. they raised the price to 700 and etc. i think apple is obviously not a maturing company idea. they have a lot of runway. that's all expected. they are great people and probably very good to their

mothers, but frankly as a group, the geniuses missed the last quarter on sales and profits. i'm not listening. the stock is a trading sardine for a while that leveraged to the market that is overextended. i don't see a lot of shares as we await the next data point and as collin mentioned, that data point may be squishy. >> i am positive about that. to me the biggest knock on apple is that you have the stock for the company and apple as trading casino. with the volume and the options. >> that's right. the traders that we are playing and the last cycle 12 years ago are playing the weekly option calls as i discuss on the streets. if you added the volume and the shares of apple that traded on friday plus the dollar amount of the weekly call options, you

will come out with the total volume in apple 25% higher than the next 19 highest traders on the nasdaqa friday. >> right. we will leave it there. great to speak with you. i like how we have the apple banner at the bottom and we are talking about apple. >> i like the sound track with the alman brothers. they play and you know it's a right every year. >> forget about apple. it's the 40th an verse versary of eat a peench. the most iconic album in history. >> commodities and the one thing you must do if you want to retire. fast money up next. choose control.

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welcome back. we want to take a look at the shares in after hours action. rising guidance and up 36%. you see the stock trading at 46.70 and went out at 4532. >> they are not wasting time anymore. they raised the guidance and it might have been in response to the "wall street journal" heard on the streets. they are allowed to sell the six-month lock out. they are getting the footing back and valuations are stretched here. >> they have a blue sky. >> an excellent point by you. it is. >> $20 is certainly a nice run and the all time high with 50 and change. >> we lucky enough to buy in the change. >> raising his fourth quarter

guidance on stronger than expected sales. moving on, the stocks are some of the biggest movers. extending a rally going on for about two weeks. if you take a look at the movers to the upside. it's 30% off the lows and we are starting to see a couple of guys who reported out and a couple of big aluminum companies. a lot of supply in the markets is starting to come off. i would guess at the end of the first quarter or second quarter is the trough of demand. you are starting to see coal prices and steel prices pick up. they also get it big. the rotation into metals is a place where people are under weight. the steels have been shorted. i would go with the mother ship that is a name that is seeing the global demand. if you top the play something closer to home, play a stock and the name that is highly levered.

>> while you were out sick, good to have you back. we welcome kate kelly back. it's great to have you back. just saying. train of thought. i still have it. peabody energy. the huge reversal on a low today. wound up closing higher and closed around 31 that day. it's now sort of climbing and i think again if you are looking for something to trade again, it comes in the form of that low. stock has been decimated, but it reverse and set it higher. >> greens down across the board. we feature almost 3% on corn and sardines. what is the trade here? let's bring in dennis, the commodities king and a cnbc contributor. always good to see you. >> always good to be seen. >> you like grain, but in yen terms. why yen? >> i have been short yen against

almost everything. i think you can buy wheat and corn and cotton and i think you can buy steel and crude oil. i think you can buy natural gas in the end terms. the yen will get weaker overtime. the fundamentals are so bad for a long period of time and the technicals have moved. the lines have been xed have been broken and the japanese would like to see a much weaker yen overtime. there will not be a japanese company that will argue about having a much, much weaker yen. they are at. >> over the next year or two. >> to bring it back to the equities market, do you see anything with the move in the grains and do you see anything along in a deer or a caterpillar or something where in the market you could hedge against the current position? >> you had problems over in poland and ukraine, but very, very cold weather in russia

that. has done severe weather to the wheat crop. we will find out in the not too distant future. that will be to the benefit of the american farmers. a great year to be a farmer and we'll plant our crop for soy beans and corn. the wheat crop is doing very, very well. where the problems are in europe are severe. it's going to work to the benefits here and that has to work to the benefit of deer and has to work to the benefit of the fertilizers. you can almost buy most of the agriculture-related stocks and feel comfortable because the farmers will be flushed with cameras and spending money. >> in terms of changing gears, precious metals, end of the line for the gold trade and a bit of a respite? >> i'm bullish, but it doesn't trade well, does it? i'm long goaled again and that saved me.

if you own gold in dollar terms, you have to be uncomfortable about the manner in which it trades. it doesn't go up on bullish news and tends to falter. only in yen terms. as far as timmy is concerned, sorry about georgetown, but go wolf pack. >> nc state has a better team than georgetown, but i will leave it at that. i will ask you about the fertilizers. i say trouble no more. what is holding it back. the supplies and the problem is that there is a large supply. that supply will be taken up by america's and canada's farmers. they had undo pressure put on the fertilizers. if i had to buy statistic or one area, i would look seriously on that.

you are right on that. >> thanks for your time. good to see you. >> time now for the portfolio. rob is president of the black rok and 3.5 trillion and said putting your moan in cash could cost you dearly. obviously anybody who has the same account will cost you dearly. i want to focus on the areas thaw advise them to be in. our real estate and commodities, we finished up about commodities in general and grains. where do you think are the best opportunities? >> i love what you have been talking about. dividends at first and now you are talking about commodities and seeking income in different places. we think there is a new world of investing and we think that people have to first rethink the cost of cash.

there is over $10 trillion sitting in bank accounts. if you take that along with the demographics of people, they won't be able to back the incomes. certainly the commodities are one. we loved the meadows and the natural resources. we like gold, but we are looking at investments for clients as well. some of that can come in equity dividend funds. when you are talking about dividends in equities, it's a large portion of the total return of equities. when you see them around 12, the last time that happened, interest rates are at 9%. we love the equity dif dend story. companies are the beneficiary of low rates. their balance sheets are better. what are they doing? buying back stock and raising

dividends. every day you are reporting on a story like that. just like you saw with apple today. we think that is happening to a lot of companies. the dividends you can get in the funds are around 4% and 5%. the dividends that you talk about, merck, pfizer, jnj, these are yielding from 3% to 5%. lots of opportunities for income out there. >> let me ask you something. when you have the $10 trillion, that sounds like a lot of cash that could be deployed, do you see that cash going into the base that continues to pay a very high dividend relative to other areas and creating a floor there even if valuations seem stretched? because i think it's a new world, people are looking for income. it's only stretched if you evaluate them in the past.

people are getting zero and they still represent value. just think, if 10% of that money starts to come out and people have a little more confidence, that's a trillion going into the markets. it's not only in equities, but it's also in high yield securities. there funs that are again around 6.5%. 40% is going into the i shares funds. again around 6.5%. that can make a big difference in the quality of someone's life and their income. >> you mentioned apple at black rock. are there funds able to buy because it initiated the dividend? >> the answer will be yes. you reported so much, it's a

great technology company and all about innovation and they are joining where they let the shareholders have the cash back. it's exciting to have a company that is so great in technology pay a dividend and look to buy shares back. i don't think they are unusual. many companies are going down the path and it's an exciting opportunity for equity investors. >> what do you make of the revival? people made this metaphor of the dollar smile. effectively the dollar is strengthening, but what does that do to the traders in the last two years that were noncore rated to this. powerful dollar move means a different trade? >> the dollar is still king. they have gotten through the problems primarily in europe. as we work through the issues, people are still looking for safe havens and the dollar is still a safe haven.

as far as the resources go, there is a shortage of natural resources. as you reported, even if china is half as successful as they think it will be, they need natural resources. we love the coal and the steel. the metals are a great opportunity. this is all about a long-term shortage of a supply of commodities. >> hope you will come back sometime soon. >> thank you. >> president of black rock. out of the areas that rob likes, what do you like and how would you translate that? >> it's different when you are running a fund our size. with what rob said, i wanted to jump in and ask him. muni's high yield commodities and real estate all great areas to b be invested in. if you go through a pull back like this time last year, does he have enough money on the sideline to continually allocate to those positions or is he hedging the positions or just saying hey, we like steal and

commodities. buy them. they are on the dividends. obviously he is doing a great job. >> in terms of the areas, getting back to the original question. >> commodities and real estate and from what i see here, he is talking dividends and anything paying a good dividend so far helped you in the pull back. i think right now he would probably be underperforming the market as we are up 11% or 12%. the dividends are not keeping up. >> we had a chart of duty. we had a point where they are starting to lag. if you are a believer in the stock market rise, diflends may not be the place you want to be. >> that was the place you played in the first six weeks where they were unsure of the rally. i am a believer and trading at ten times versus 15. these are names starting to make a move and fundamentally are cheap and the most exposed.

i would rather own that and a dollar growth environment than be defensive in the utility play. >> coming up next, the ambassador of smooth found the apple of the emerging markets and he's ready to share the name and trade it with you. more fast money ahead. ♪

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>> >> welcome back to fast monoat the "new york times" square. keeping an eye on a company he calls the apple of the emerging

markets. >> it is. it's samsung and the midnight rider. this stock is halling all time highs. this is a stop that is different than apple and it's an integrated play. they show up in handsets in apple machines. they live in the living room that apple is trying to get to. i would argue much more diversified. what is scary about this game is it's 16% of the korean index which you can play, it's the biggest stock on the msciem. it can get a lot of momentum and use it as a proxy or short it. this is a name that steals the thunder from apple. it's a name that competes on a better price point and across the product chain. it's not necessarily a stock without its own momentum, but it has a longer glide path to gloryy and a larger longer mountain path. >> that's a great job.

we are having good clean fun over here right side. >> sorry that a play to the android. >> samsung is caught in a couple of cross hairs. korea is seen as an industrial play. if you see global slow down where tech names are defensive. i think samsung is sold off as part of a thing and they have broader holdings. it's a good question and a decent hedge. most players identify this as an alternative. >> bernstein sending shares plunging after saying the risks of bankruptcy are rising. i spoke to the analyst at bernstein and it's 1.75. it was a 50-50 chance that they go into bankruptcy. if it does, it would probably reemerge. >> quickly, i thought the report was a little misleading in a

sense to come out and say that 50-50 chance it could go into bankruptcy. i don't know what the report was. talking about it four or five years down the road, they have a lot to do in the next four or five years. >> what did the market tell us about the possibility of a bankruptcy. we did big digging on the story today. >> the equity market told a story that was not pretty, but the debt market didn't tell that picture. yes they are shaky and prospects are unclear, but is this a risk whether near term or not. that wasn't the case today. if you look at the five-year bonds and the prices off only slightly. you can see a middling range for the last month. yields knew where they were at issue. most bonds are trading close to

par value and off only a fraction. the market thinks the likelihood of sprint defalling is less than it was a week ago. the report said the risk of bankruptcy is 50%. yes they are still higher than average, but the spreads are lower i lowering the 100 basis points lower than a week ago. over $20 billion and print has been the subject of much criticism in the last month abandoning the deal after months of discussion. an equity price in the $2 range could not with stand any more delusion on that price. that's a very, very low price there. management set an internal price target between $6 to $8 a share before they choose to evaluate other alternatives. when you consider that debt,

alternatives may not be many, but that's a story line that at least the debt market is believing. >> thanks a lot for that report. u.p.s. making an acquisition and is it signalling the all clear for europe? how the smart money is positioned. looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of: fidelity. now you don't have to go to a bank to get the things you want from a bank. like no-fee atms -- all over the world. free checkwriting and mobile deposits. now, depositing a check is as easy as taking a picture. free online bill payments. a highly acclaimed credit card with 2% cash back into your fidelity account. open a fidelity cash management account today and discover another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. our machines help identify early stages of cancer and it's something that we're extremely proud of.

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welcome back to fast money. a clip from hunger games which is a huge, huge movie. >> we are listening to a little bit more. the movie will be on, but you are going tomorrow night. >> there is a screening. we should mention we had michael burns joining us tomorrow. lots of anticipation and this is a catalyatalor the stocks. we will get the latest in terms of preticket sales and anticipation of the movie tomorrow. electric at the shares up 9% in today's session. 9%. >> people will shoot against this and it's a short interest in the name. we talked about the stocks trading at icon levels of $6 or

so. even with the run, i still think it's worth the look here. >> again, the vice chairman tomorrow on fast. let's talk about the dollar falling for the third straight day. a covering behind this move. let's get your monfrom amelia, the director of foreign exchange. amelia, this will seem like a tangent, but i wanted to ask you about the deal at $6.8 billion in u.s. money terms. is that going to impact at all? have any impacts on the markets and we talk about deal flow impacking currency flows. >> it could, but when the deal is announced, the transaction has taken place or the bulk of it has? >> already in the market. in terms of the move we saw today, was it short covering we saw? >> i think what's happening is people have been so bulled up over u.s. data and the yields

are rising and dollar strengthening, when we got a disappointing confidence read, that was a catalyst for a stronger sell off and that continued overnight in asia and into certainly london trading and new york trading today. the trade that you brought today is selling aussie cad. >> it is. we will continue to have a growth recovery. a sustainable recovery in the u.s. the canadian dollar that will weigh on the oust railian dollar. on a relative basis, canada has an advantage. i'm looking on the figure. i look for a move down to 102.50. >> thanks a lot for joining us and catch more money in motion at 5:30 eastern time. up next on fast, we are thinking about getting into the options

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city in particular. scott? >> city got clobbered on the b of a head fake. this was an opportunity to be bullish and get in at a better level. i want to take advantage of that and options are expensive. i would sell the april 34-37 put spread and sell it for about 95 cents. great relationship. we are only risking $2 to make a buck and the opportunity is much more likely. >> scott, thanks a lot for that trade. every friday 5:00 and follow as well with cnbc to get constant trade updates. we are talking to the first analyst to friend facebook. more fast straight ahead. .

>> welcome back to >> welcome back to fast money. breaking news on the facebook ipo. wall street is bracing for the lowest fees ever given to their banks for undertaking an ipo that is not a government-led deal. 1.1% will be the percentage of the pro seeds raised that go to bankers. a consortium of a dozen players

that split that money amongst themselves with the more prominent banks taking the bigger proportion as usual. in the history ofus ipos, where the treasury was selling stocks, was under a percentage point, but that was an unusual deal. in this case i'm told bankers are concerned. this breaking withholding the line and facebook is a hot ticket to take public, but at the same time they have to talk to clients who don't want to pay more than 1%. it's a tricky path for the wall street firms to walk at a time when they are on the up surge and they want to make the most out of it. >> 7% was the standard. in the multibillion dollar deals, at&t was a huge deal. it was 2.9% and that was the low side. 2% to 4% range was standard for the deals. it tends to be low with overseas

deals in asia and europe. in the u.s. when you have a corporation on the nyse or nasdaq, you are looking at 3% to 5%. >> thanks for the update on facebook. let's bring in james lee, global internet and he just wrote one of the first notes on facebook. great to have you with us. how can you write a report without it going public at first. are bullish on the name and criticism in terms of the metrics that we know about from filings so far is the number of user that is it has and how it considers them. when you take a look at daily and monthly average users, the monthly may log in one time. how do we know the quality of the users? >> if you look at the daily active users and divide it, you

can get a sense of how much they are coming back to the system. in north america, they are seeing that raidio being high. about 70%. in asia, it's lower at 50%. it shows that a lot of monthly users from facebook come back. >> you have a thought. by 2015 you expect facebook to have 45% of user share. what are the key factors driving that number? >> we will be looking at international market for facebook going forward. we are looking at 65 to 70% penetration for facebook already. we are looking for additional penetration from asia. asia facebook only has 18% penetration. we are looking at about 30% penetration. we will be the largest group of users by 202o.

james lee on facebook. are you on facebook yet? >> no. we will be right back. #

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