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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 20, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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twitter and google plus. have a fantastic evening and i will see you tomorrow. fast money begins now. stay with us. lion's gates shares are on fire. which markets are boupsing back location, location, location. the ceo talks about where the company is looking for growth. live in markets like this, this is fast money. shares of oracle topping expectations on eps and revenue. we see the stock rise in the after hours session. license was key. >> that's the key to the future revenue. that's what everybody is looking at. it was light after one thing you want to say about it.
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a very good quarter and lots of backlog and it bodes well and talks about productivity. that has been coming down. the companies are getting fewer and fewer units of product out of their workers. i actually like oracle in the space for all of them. i think you buy this. >> had a monster002009. they are on pace to have record operating margins as they mentioned. the pipeline right now is a record backlog as well. everything is coming to fruition in terms of integrating the company. mark hurd is making a contribution. even giving the run up in the aftermark. oracle is clearly worth a look. >> interesting. mark hurd on a day when hp has big announcements too. stock is flying up 17%.
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not terribly cheap. i don't think fully valued, but they are mixed on the stock. after hours, somewhere around 31 or 30 and at 15 times, it's not terribly cheap. the hardware side is not necessarily a slam dunk. it's not integrate and at a time when they have a lot of time, it offers a lot of value. they are not showing they will grow significantly. i don't think that you will have to rush into the stock. >> what do you think when you see the results? do you go to a microsoft? they are due out in october. we have a date, but we have seen trouble around 32. >> i would rather go to a microsoft. as we sao have seen them be challenged on the charts, you see the guys and the fund managers come into the names of old. i have been watching a lot come back like a microsoft.
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a different type of space, but it fits into that group. >> you were talking about the sales being short of expectations. this is an area that they had to turn around and shows that the integration was not yet successful and complete. maybe it's not gaining as much as people thought. >> you might think that maybe it's not working at all. at least as far as they thought. the software sales make up for it. i'm not that concerned about the hardware side. i think that in this area you can look to something like talking about trying to get productivity out of workers. >> i will give you one more name. red hat that is pushing towards the october highs. valuation does not make a lot of sense clearly, but you might get a bend for your buck. you report march 28th after the close. you may see a run up in earnings as well. >> on the options desk, what have you seen today? >> oracle traded about 4.5 times
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average and looks like they called it well. most of that was upside and call buying and they traded at about 70% more than the puts did. it was about in line and forecasting. we will see what happens and it's less than that right now. >> the shares in the after hours up by about 4%. he will join us and better than expected quarter. there he is right now. >> classical music. you can identify that? it's good. continue enjoying. we will check with you later. >> you can identify that. >> it's good.
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you are not on the conference call. >> maybe you should have traders like this. >> sure. meantime, let's move on. >> move past it. next trade here, shares are dipping on report that is the company would combine computer businesses. a value for shareholders. what is the trade here? the shares are down pretty much all day on the back of the reports. printing used to be the work horse of the company. 1/3 of revenues and there has been a change. how many print everything they have? they store it instead. a lot of head winds. printing is broke uh up and mark hurd had a big in breaking the two up. this is value territory in the extreme sense. i would be curious to ask if he sees a lot of the flow. this is no longer a name that
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they feel that comfortable holding. it's a broken stock and you have a different player. probably more hedge funds than you see large players at the levels. >> it is. if they are in a hunt for yield as they are looking for, they don't rush into this. they are moving back into the days of old. they don't think the landscape is. >> apple is yielding 1.8%? >> i think the stock is giving one more chance to get it. we saw the big bounce off that and up to 29, i guess. here we are at 23.5 again.
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good value. you are betting that meg whitman has the pedigree to do it. can you be in it before that value gets lucky? i think you are better off since this is fast money. they are combining the printing business. does this seem like a change to make? that will truly unlock and ahead of the printer division left. he left. what do they have to do? they merged it. big deal. >> the cost side of the business is proven to be at least making headway. i think these guys basically kitchen sinked it. very little people can expect and they have taken it off and managed cost. how are they growing the top
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line? nobody knows. you are a distressed player and buying something. this is under six times earnings. >> i'm curious to see if the options kits indicate bullish or bearish activity. >> there used to be call buying. open interest in the calls about four or five months ago get up to a million contracts. it's lower than that now. today's activity was bearish. the april 22 puts were the most active. the market if it is speculating has taken a bearish tone here. >> let's move on to the next trade. got to talk financials in today's session. sparking the rally in the group after reporting investment banking. it's a cash answer.
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richard handler is probably one of the better ceos and he weathered that storm a lot better. here we are back around $20. the quarter was not staggering. equities business was poor to say the least. they did see sort of an upswing in the quarter. you are at 19 1/2, 20. the run is magnificent. personally i don't think you see a huge read through here, but the banks that performed all along and continues to gravitate higher and stocks that get lumped into financials that aren't like visa and mastercard are still big. >> it was interesting when you saw on the bell a company coming out with that rumor in the market and perceived them as doing a secondary. it took down the space and i think this morning the short side was blood. it went up on the whole space.
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they couldn't break the back of the market and break the financials and the positive goes higher. they bought the group and i'm looking across the desk. everything they wanted, people are still not long enough on financials as far as long onlies and long shorts. >> window dressing. if people are under invested, they have rallied. is there a perform offence since they are approaching the end of march? >> the end of the month. the financials have done well. morgan stanley is where you look. jeffrey his a phenomenal quarter and more institutional and morgan stanley has the whole wealth management that will do well. you start to see that retail money come out of bank accounts that are at record highs and head into the stock market or come out of the bond market. i think morgan stanley is the player. >> the movement yesterday where people wanted to call this over and this was a bad run that
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people should have sold, look at the xlf. no resistance until about 1710. despite the fact you have overbout conditions, as the guys said, they found investment banks. pick the part you like and you are getting i think the european banks said it and watch them. they are making a mint out of this. they are fixed income and making money on free money. they are surprised from the european banks. i agree with you, people have been under weight and looking at first quarter numbers. managers get fired. they that down here. they get fired because they weren't invested enough. people miss this run and they will be punished for it. part thing to ask is do you own goldman sachs or tangible book is 13.5?
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so that's the question you have to ask yourself. you have seen that already over the last couple of months. >> which part do you like? >> it's a great thing. the story i like best is richard and his ability to go over the difficult waters. the run is tremendous. if you have been fortunate enough to be in the trade, i have been taking profits. i think jeffreys is a great group run by a great ceo. >> the options market had the story right since the beginning. there is so much activity going into 2012. does it see it continue? >> i think one of the things here is that with a name like jeffries where you had a run, thisa slightly volatile name. you can sell upside calls and try to scrape more yield out and the worst ways is you might get up 10 or 12% in the year. they look like a compelling
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value and hit a little bit of a speed bump. that may have prevented it from rallying and presented a better opportunity for people. >> solar stock his a rough run. the clouds parted. i didn't write that. >> but you read it. what's worse? write it or read what's written? >> then point fingers at other people? >> you had the choice. you could have bridgestone through. >> that's true. i apologize. the clouds parted for the chinese after the government said they will not impose terrorists on the company. they are covering the story from san jose. jane? >> it's a huge unexpected victory for the panel makers. rivals were looking for terrorists up to 100% and the chinese companies profit illegally with subsidies there. the congress department said how about tariffs of 4%. they are as low as 2.9% for the 800-pound solar panel gorilla in
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the room. they are up to 3.6 for most. the the tafives take effect. they soared on the news. you can see there, they shot up the most. we talked about the chief and the america west conference. it feels vindicate and this is not the end of the story. these are preliminary subsidy tariffs. a second investigation into dumping could be more tariffs in may. all could change before being final in the summer. >> you are dealing with although you know potentially where the decision is, you won't know until the fall. this will be reassessed later on. it is something that is a moving target and you talk about the targets that you moving on what we have and the cost basis in the future.
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you intentionally selling the panels at a loss? >> absolutely not. we never have. we consider the peers have and that's an important point to make. we have never done that. >> well, a market punished the u.s. solar panel makers. this will continue to be a tough year for them as prices while stabilizing are low. there is too much capacity and hasn't been a great year for the chinese as well. a greater than expected loss today. nothing said sad like the sign i captured outside the conference. a homemade solar panel charging station. low tariffs mean low costs and more people might buy solar that is great for the one part of the industry that is booming in the u.s. installation. back to you. >> great for the consumer who might be installing these panels. thanks so much. jane had thrown up this name that is brought up repeatedly.
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gordon johnson that is bearish on this sector overall. we should know he said -- >> and spot on on this. i am still not a huge fan of the solar space, but if you top the get bullish, you have to look at the demand from within the u.s. it was interesting that national grid talked about how solar would be better economically than wind power. if there is any light at the end of the tunnel, that's where i would look. for me, i am going to stay away for now. >> every rally has been an opportunity to sell them, even though they are cheap. this is an opportunity to it will them. >> will this be a weekend to remember for the shareholders? the lions gate vice chairman is here regarding the hunger games as well as my favorite show, mad men.
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welcome back from the nasdaq market site. what's the latest here? >> they
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with estimates? is it quarter quarter or year on year? >> it was looking for above 3% revenue growth year on year and because of currency, they say they will come in at about zero. though if you look at cuts in currency, maybe a little less than what they were looking for. eps above that. >> thanks for the update and shares have paired their gains in the after hours session on the back of this guidance. big weekend could be ahead for lions gate. the most highly anticipated opened on friday. setting records and the movie set up for a huge open on top of
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that. mad men returns for a fifth season. vice chairman of lion's gate joins us here on set. great to see you. got us with hunger games and the stock had a new string of 52-week highs. what are your expectations for the weekend box office and the run of the movie? >> we don't put a number out there. i don't want to be the guy spike the football before he gets in the end zone. that would be that. we feel good about the tracking and we picked the right date and the marketing team is above the rim. the advertising is not necessarily marketing and the other way around. we are going to have a terrific weekend. >> would you say north of 100 million sounds reasonable? that's what most people are laked in on the streets. that's a 52-week high. >> she went after you one more time. again, i don't want to put a number out there. $100 million would be a great number.
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the record is alice in wonder land which is higher. we feel good about where we are. let's talk again next week. >> after the numbers. this movie has been called a movie that appeals to four different sections. male, female, over and under 25. is that the formula for success when you are looking at movies and these franchise movies. is that the key? >> the movie business is an art and a science. we believe very strongly that again joe drake and his team put together a great campaign. we started with an unbelievably good book. suzanne collins wrote the hunger games and the trilogy. when you have the source material, they get a great script. if you get a great script, you will get a great director. if you get ross, you will get the actors he has in this movie. again, it's an art and a science. we feel like we have the right combination here. >> michael, jpmorgan has a
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report on you guys and calls you the little studio that could. one of the things they are citing is the balance sheet side of your story. a conservative approach despite the fact that you have branded films and tv exposure. what's the strategy on how quickly investors can grow. how aggressive will you be? >> we think we have been telling the street for a long time. when my partner came over 11 years ago, it was a big library with the overhead. when you flip the light switch, you cover a lot of overhead. we will delever if things go according to planned. we bought summit on the acquisition. rod freeman and what happens is the twilight franchise will be a generator and the risk is the last twilight was not going to work. it worked spectacularly well and
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the dvds are selling well. then what happened is i was fortunate enough to hit it out of the park. that comes out in november. take a franchise like hunger gameses will have another terrific ex-pentable summer. you can create it in the most unpredictable film business. that's a good thing. obviously our whole plan was diversification meaning we would be in the television business. tomorrow we will be ringing the bell with melissa's boyfriend. >> and mad men is premiering on the amc sunday night, a two-hour premier at 9:00. that turned into a great asset for us. >> since we had you on, the story has been about content. other than amazon and netflix, the people who buy it, there
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other people now. in the uk, two more new folk came to buy content. that seemed to work for you folks as pricing becomes more competitive. you can speak to that? >> we didn't have a pay television deal in the uk. we had to go happened in hat to sky that would buy whatever movies they wanted. it wasn't a strong market and then what happens is netflix shows up and you have a bidding situation. that's going to happen and things like that will happen around the world. when john and i came over, the idea was not to be the smart guys on the platform, but to bet on creating content. all these contents emerge. >> in terms of content, mad men was picked up and also weeds and also boss. there is a lot out there.
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you mentioned diversification of revenue. 22% of fiscal 11 revenues were from tv pruxz. you see that piece of the pie growing? it is a more diverse portfolio? >> i do. they created in men and weeds, if somebody said we were going to sell $100 million and each on dvd, i thought you were crazy. our television business is run by kevin and sandra. they created hit them with the focus and dramas on basic cable. you end up having paid television and shows that you didn't mention. boss is going into the second season. if you look at the business they built, two or three new shows a year turned into a real growth business going from to approaching 450, $500 million. we just started shooting anger management, a new model starring charlie sheen.
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television turned into a great business. >> the recurring theme turned the into the great blockbusters. you have been lucky enough to have a bunch of them. it pulls you into that recurring theme. >> for does and take a look at what you have going on. movies do particularly well on pay television that we own with viacom and mgm. if you look at the streaming cycle and netflix, they do very, very well. i saw last night they run am cnet works and i said you gave us such a hard time and believe on sunday you find out you have a new audience showing up that may not have known about the show. >> the last question we have is about 20 seconds. you have $1.1 billion in debt. are you retiring that or is part
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of that also seeking a buyer for the stake in the tv guide show? >> one thing is you have to look at the buckets. they will pay out rapidly. that's in a bucket by itself. we believe that again if hunger games works which we anticipate it will, they continue to do well. the library is growing and continues to do well, we should delever dramatically over 12 to 18 months. >> do you see selling your stake? >> we are a buyer on one level and a seller on the other. >> i know. it's always good to see you. michael burns, vice chairman of lions gate. looking to open if at these levels at a fresh 52-week high. he as well as a ceo along with
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the cast of mad men including john hamm will ring the opening bell tomorrow morning. you going to interview him? you procured that yet? >> we will be speaking. >> do you have your outfit for tomorrow? >> i was hoping for help from you, tim. we have to trade the plays off lions gate. you don't like that trade? it's in the basket. you have the toy company and there is licensing. >> in other words. >> an i mac should be up there as well. >> regal entertainment. i'm throwing that one out. look at regal entertainment. it has a monster short interest and people can get run over and they will continue.
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6% dividend which is safe for the foreseeable future. to me you want to look at something else, rgc. >> you go towards the hasbro side. michael talked about how they are trying to really look at their asset pool and generate the earnings off of it. one way you can participate in that if you don't want to buy lions gate. why not buy it? >> especially on dream works and dwa, it is capped out here, but this is a place where you have the closest value. >> it is streaming and the content. >> it seems to have bounced off that level with authority. you want to be a buyer. i don't agree with that.
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>> john hamm will give his verdict tomorrow. maybe he will have it. >> maybe he's on set. alive side by side. >> all right. next on fast. are we on the verge of a buy out? stay tuned to find out which sectors are most likely to be part of the action. more of that straight ahead. ♪ i'm making my money do more. i'm consolidating my assets. i'm not paying hidden fees or high commissions.
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greg, always good to see you. >> good seeing you. >> they are flushed with cash and what are they going to do with it? >> there is a mystery more in the way of activity. private equity is sitting on about a $430 billion of cash. the debt markets are improving. just even at six months ago, they had to pay for deals about half in cash and now only about 20% and borrow the rest. i have been asking bankers why aren't there more deals. more on the way. these are big private equity firms. it's encouraging for the market that the biggest private equity firms expect a wave of deals ahead. >> are there obvious targets? >> it's interesting that these are not the barbarians. you don't have the big buy outs like we used to, but you are going see a lot in the way of health care and a lot of mid-cap stocks. a lot of the health care providers have pressure on them
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to cut costs and mergers are one way to do it. i am thinking deals as well. if you are a company sending out about 2.2 trillion in cash, if your company is hard to grow in the low growth economy, generally speaking one way is through acquisition. hearing for private equity that it won't be just they who do the deals. >> what's going on with the ipo? is it running into trouble and is that why black stone can't get anything going towards the upside? >> i don't think it's running into problems. they added underwriters, but with facebook, that doesn't mean the ipo will be in trouble. there will be a lot of interest. firms in general have not done well. they have done well for themselves for thes, but you look at black stone and the others that under performed. they are not pounding the table
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and want to get in. i don't think the deal will number trouble. >> i'm curious if you heard talk about the insurance industry. i look at the area, they are looking at private equity firms tend to want to get into something and have a turn around. >> the private equities look at that is more volatile. they obviously like cash flow and they can leverage up. you can't do it as well. about the financials including insurance. there were a bunch of insurance that is cheap, but the prices keep getting more expensive. one investor i was talking to said he had a deal and the stock went up while they were talking and the board said the price is just way too low now. they are getting cold feet. their thinking is there might be more activity. >> good to speak with you. >> greg is from the "wall street journal." who is primed for a buy out.
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you short of run a screen in terms of who might be an acquirer. >> i was looking not so much at the private equity firms, but more at the companies that have a lot of cash on the balance sheet. he was talking about some of the companies that have sold off divisions that would add cash to the balance sheets as well. what we were looking for were the types of companies that have a great deal of cash on the sheet. they might be trading at or above so they can look for targets. we will probably spend a week or two trying to look at the deals that might be. >> got to take a break. is china's slow down for cat seeno stocks? the big come back with the ceo of jones. more fast money straight ahead. #
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> welcome back to fast money. commercial real estate made a big come back. more companies are leasing space
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and prices are up and vacancies are down. also in other parts of the world. what is behind this trend? the president and ceo in a cnbc exclusive. great to have you with us. you identify the u.s. as moving ahead in other regions. what's behind the geographies that is behind the growth sfl. >> there is a demand in commercial real estate and strongest in the gateway cities and some of the technically driven and in the southern u.s. and houston and austin and dallas. broadly across the u.s., we are seeing good brought-based economic recovery. the market in general is beginning to realize that and see that as well. europe is still dealing with the confidence issues that are left over after the worst of the
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crisis. they seem to be having a way through, but the real estate market demand in europe is flatter than the u.s. in asia, a growth of 5% to 6% has seen slowing and easing of the pace of growth we saw in the middle of 2011. the twin effects of demand from exports and a bit of a hit to their confidence flowing from the euro situation. put it all together and the u.s. market feels like a good place to be investing and a good place to be. a lot of people have talked about the value added commercial space. are you seeing a trend and are people grabbing raw space or are they doing something and then putting it on the market? >> the institutional investors and broadly speaking, investors after the great economic crisis when investors in development space added opportunistic
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suffered rather badly. the trend is back towards low risk with strong cash flow and solid city center office or major retail centers where the cash flow is solid and they are strong. so far we are seeing a continuation of that trend. not yet a great deal of money going towards opportunistic styles where the risks are higher and so are the returns. people are in a conservative mind set. >> we will have to leave it there. thanks for your time. we appreciate it. you can connect the dots. the commercial real estate and you have housing starts and multifamilies very strong. in the sector, where do you see the value base? >> i have the etf and you get a decent yield. 76% here. >> the ceo of renren. the facebook of china.
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♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪ >> welcome back. u.p.s. was downgraded on the back of the acquisition of tnt. the stock his a nice run here. if you happen to own the shares,
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50% year to date and facebook is renren. the chairman and ceo. >> do you think that the facebook ipo will allow investors to see r attache higher valuation to your company? >> i have no clue, but i think that the ipo of facebook will highlight the social network industry. >> it is a tough space and the last conference call about the competition and you said it remains intense and dynamic with players continuing to spend heavily and you said they are
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spending much mer to promote the services than you are. how do you anticipate meeting this challenge. the industry is probably one of the most competitive in the world. in terms of the numbers and players and the markets and publicly listed companies out there. on the other hand, it is still growing and the per person spending on the internet is greg naturally. we have a large growing market place and talented competitors. >> how can you allay concerns that you will be spending to the point where you sacrifice gross margins? >> if we look back at what's happening in china on the internet space, people will recognize that we are going
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through a change right now. the c change is more about internet. the rapid growing of the internet. in china, they are saying over 200 million new smart phones can be sold and utilized in one year. this year will be huge growth for the internet in china and social networking is a natural winner. >> 50% of accessing company services from the cell phone. i'm curious because online advertising revenue is an important part of your business. are online and mobile ads the same or are you sacrificing that to make the shift towards mobile. >> the mobile sfoen high lie ranked and still much more than those on pcs. the advertising has been around for a long time and the rates
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have been fairly efficient. by my rating or use from pc to mobile, we do suffer a little bit on that. as long as we keep growing much faster than the migration, i think we can comfortably continue to grow and in addition we are finding new revenue streams and mobile earnings, particularly on gaming. as well as social commerce. >> social media space in particular are interesting. he highlights a challenge that a lot of companies are facing and how do you make mobile profiting as much as a pc. he said because of that shift. >> the exciting part is most of china is 2 g. about 20% of the players are north of 2 g. this is a $3 billion company that is not making money. this scares me.
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other social networks and if they were able to fight off facebook, the only place that is successful, that trades in a very interesting company. renren has issues here. if i was playing, i would go with deep value which to me is trading 13 times earnings and proven they can make money and tested the battles where that's the jury right now. it is out in chinese ipo and technology. >> we have the first look tomorrow. stay tuned. medicare. it doesn't cover everything.
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>> back for the final trade. let's go around. >> trying to cast the following. i like btu. >> tim? >> the overgrowth concerns. fcs. >> good luck with that tomorrow. i'm rooting for you. black stone. bx. >> chk, chesapeake. >> brian kelly? >> i would stick with -- how do i follow that? what works which is tech an

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