intuit, sears and the nasdaq fell one-third of 1%. that will do it for the "closing bell." hope you'll follow me on twitter and google plus @maria bartiromo is the handle. thanks for everyone for being here on the trading floor. have a great night. . i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. stocks took a hit on china fears but plenty of opportunities in the emerging markets. jim rogers is joining us from singapore with an emerging market play that may surprise you and nike and micron report after the bell and who will be the winners and losing in a rights rate environment? doug cass is bringing his shopping list exclusively to "fast." let's get straight to the market selloff that we've seen over the past couple of sessions. are china concerns enough to push stocks meaningfully lower

from here. pete? >> yeah. i think that we're definitely due for a correction. looking for 1375. we talked about that last thursday. i think that the s&p 500 goes there. 2% correction is what you're looking for. do people know that china has slowed, yes. do people know europe is slowing. maybe not as much as they did before we started the evening or at least coming into the opening session, and i think the bigger surprise would be going forward, what the u.s. consumption growth really looks like with oil up here. there's never been a time in u.s. history where the u.s. consumer has not slowed on a real inflation-adjusted basis with the price of oil at this level. >> real surprise is that we led the show with stevie ray vaughn. i mean, that was great, didn't you think? >> surprising in what way, because you suggested that. >> because we can be so square sometimes and then we rocked it out tonight at 5:00. >> got to start it off thursday in style. >> keith makes a cogent point. i think steven roache was on at halftime saying a lot of moves in china orchestrated. we would kill for their growth rate but also would add so much of the move has been predicated

on a growth rate in china, 9 bost9% and 10% and the fact it's lower should be a concern. names like caterpillar, selling off a little bit, and i'm not suggesting that china will have a crash landing, but what i will suggest is unless you get growth rate that we need, high single digits, low double digits, yeah, there's a very good chance that we can see the 1375 level which was resistance on the way up. it will be supported now. talked about 1425 in the s&p. maybe that 1415 or 1414 level we got to last week is enough. we'll see. the next day or so, in other words, tomorrow and monday, are going to really tell the tale for the next 50 or so s&p points. >> you know, just want to add something on china. the government there is supporting bankrupt companies in order to keep people from being unemployed, and so look for massive stimulus from the government of china, and i do think when this thing blows it's going to be very, very nasty.

any austrian economist will tell you once the credit cycle explodes, it's very hard to reflate it. >> keith started the show about how it's rather obvious in a market that has moved higher since november. what do you do with the correction and how deep is the correction? you've got an end of quarter coming where you might get some window dressing and a little bit of a liftoff. you've got a beginning of a new quarter where you may see a little bit of a rotation out of treasuries and into equities and then ultimately earnings are what's going to drive and be the next catalyst, but on the correction, what do you do? and i think today's tape is indicative of what you do. you kind of look away from the china story of the last couple of years which has been that reflation resource type of trade. until china starts to actually ease in monetary policy, it's not about energy right now. energy equities are underperforming significantly, the oil futures themselves.

it's not about industrials. it goes back to financials. it goes back to technology. it goes back to consumer names that are doing well. mead johnson 52-week high and yum, 52-week highs and pete's coffee, 52-week highs. on a pullback, that's where you look? >> 1375 is the first level in the s&p and then things get dicy because the levels that we sort of touched over the last week or so are the same levels we topped out in may of '01. if you look what subsequently happened in the spring, in the summer and fall, we fall off a cliff. again not to suggest that that's going to happen. you know, a journey of 1,000 steps, you like that? >> i do. >> something like that. >> i'm surprised you're not looking first at -- >> put me on the flat side. >> beautiful outside meaning what? >> people feel good. >> oh, okay. >> give you a laundry list of their product line if you would like. that's another show. >> i don't think weather has anything to do with that.

>> it does. >> let's get back to business. mike, is this sort of a blowoff top? are we in for some sort of correction here? >> i think it's interesting. a lot of people have been looking at barometers of implied volatility, that is the price of options and suggesting that the options market was acting fairly complacent. i might take the other side of it by pointing out that although the prices for options were very low, the amount of volatility we're seeing in the market was much, much lower and the difference there had actually gotten to a farrelly widespread suggesting that dealers were getting to a point where they simply weren't going to be interested in selling insurance at any cheaper prices than the ones we were seeing. if we take a look at the flows we were actually seeing in terms of put buying and call selling, that type of activity today was decidedly bearish. almost interesting to me, just because you see a lot of call buying and we have in the financials over the years, doesn't necessarily mean that everybody thinks this will continue unabated. you could sell stocks and be buying calls and participate if it does continue high and take risk off.

>> a stock replacement strategy. we had the first sniff of china concerns, not earlier this week with the bhp billiton comments but the first sniff of these concerns when our own keith mccullough sounded the alarm back in february. take a listen. >> i think that this is setting up to be a lot lower potentially three months from now when people wake up to it not being a greece. it's about china slowing. it's about the rest of the world really occurring inclusive u.s. which is partly going to be a consumption story growth slowing as well. >> outlook for u.s. equities predicated on what happens in china in that do you want -- i mean, how hard of a landing are you fact oregon or should people factor in here in the united states? >> hard landing is in the our call. our call is always about what's happening on the margins. when people are expecting growth, particularly in the u.s., people are looking at 3% gdp growth. i think u.s. gpd growth could be half of that, cut sequentially

to 1.5%. real easy to get there. the calculus in the gdp is highly affected by the deflator. in other words, like oil goes up from september from 80 bucks all the way to where it went the last couple of weeks, that starts to steal from growth and as growth slows the big lesson was if you buy growth slowing right at the top in april you get run over. >> glad you mentioned the gdp number. you say to goldman sachs baloney, you're crazy, don't buy equities. >> goldman's call from a macro perspective you're on the rails and particularly on this one. if you look at what happens to growth in a big government intervention environment what, happens is the economic cycles shorten. so people, you know, run of the mill economists think you've got these garden variety economies. this is nothing garden variety. highly sponsoreded by cheap money and when cheap money starts to unwind like it did today in the basic materials stocks, the energy stocks,

basically big beta, the s&p 5 has a problem. >> the ultimate question becomes what do you do with that environment? i think keith's correct to point out central banks. until they will stop here. i think eventually as i said before, china will begin to ease, but they will continue to throw money at this, and ultimately that is going to lead to inflation. it's going to lead to inflation in the emerging markets. it's going to lead to inflation here in the breakfast table. we're already seeing it when we go to the pump, and i think you look at the agriculture names which really have been trading off in a corrective fashion the last couple of days, potash is a name which i've picked up the last couple of days, but that's one of the first places you should look. because at the end of the day i cannot believe that this doesn't turn into an inflationary environment. >> just to add on to what joe was saying. looking back to 2008 when we needed stimulus and china needed stimulus, they had to go 4x, what the united states did, because they do not have a market-based economy so if they are heavily stimulating to try to keep this going, there will be rampant inflation over there.

>> just turn to the fedex comments today. i'm not saying go out to throw out the stock but they said they don't see the strong economy that they had hoped to see. >> do we take that with a grain of salt? >> the last couple of days, people are saying i'm going to be long earnings and to guy's point. baker hughes yesterday and fedex today, not only rung people's bells but woke people up on what margin compression could start to look like when costs are this year. this is what the fed doesn't get. they don't run businesses. ben bernanke -- >> can you put baker hughes in that category. baker hughes has a problem with shifting towards -- away from natural gas. they are sort of left flat-footed so it's not just necessarily rising costs. >> baker hughes saw a 400 to 500 basis point draw down in the margins so margin compression is a big issue. when we look at big cyclicals which are short something like freeport, people say i buy it because it's cheap. you don't buy a cyclical when it's cheap and margins are coming down like this. before you know it the stocks are getting down when it get more expensive.

>> where are we for the week? stocks are on track for the worst week of the year. equities are still intact and you can find the proof by checking the charts. let's bring in michael harris, director of trading at campel & company. michael in, terms of what you see for the s&p 500, where do you look first for clues? >> our systematic trend following models have three distinct time horizons. as i look at chart, the first thing i see is the one-year lookback which is firmly in an uptrend and has been for some time now. if you circle in on the three-month trend, it's even stronger, and can you barely see the one-month trend, but it's almost in line slope-wise. the key here is that all three of the lookbacks are all pointing to the upside, so this is a strong trend, and we see it to continue. >> is this highly unusual to see this sort of trend intact this way? >> no, and it's interesting. if we go to the next slide, i can show you the -- the trend channel and we'll start with the moving averages here so you can see. here's the goldman cross. 50-day moving average crossing over the two-day moving average. happened back on january 31st.

a lot of people were skeptical to buy the signal. moved up 23% from the bottom. come another 7% since then so this technical factor was a good one. then as we bring in the trend channel, you'll be able to see that the overall uptrend over the last six months, we've got good support in the market. i think as we look at some of the levels, 509-day moving average will provide support in the market. that's around 1347 in the futures and you've got the bottom of of the trend channel at 1380 so the market can come off a bit on some of these china growth concerns and still be in the uptrend going forward. >> does the russell or the transports suggest that, you know, the selloff is imminent, or is this something that's going to take place over, you know, the course of the next few months? >> well, i think, if we look at sectors, look at technology because that's continued to drive the overall growth in the s&p 500 and thus the nasdaq's outperformance recently. got an additional 700 basis point year to date on the nasdaq over the s&p and obviously the big story there is apple. >> well, if you look beyond that and think about pro cyclical sectors, beyond apple which

everybody talks about all day long and the financials which have been royally squeezed, how do you consider the pro-cyclical sectors like nurse and basic materials putting in its third-year high. does that compute particularly when you lacked at last year when the smoothing averages really looked just as good as they do now and then everybody got killed? >> i think you need to focus on energy. we trade all. energy products including natural gas, wti and brent and really the focus on energy goes forward will be a tight supply demand balance that we have in the markets and the geopolitical risks that are out there. talked to a lot of traders in the energy markets in recent days and they have all said, hey, i may not want to get long here in the 105 region but don't want to be short if a headline breaks about military action in japan. >> michael, let talk about the financials you've had in the last couple of days, 1,900-day moving yet, yet above the 200-day, haven't had that in quite some time. where do you see a potential pullback and where is it that you -- in other words, how deep would the correction be? >> well, we don't trade the financial sector specifically because we're a futures manager

so we're just trading the index, so i can only really comment on the s&p and the nasdaq and other global indices, but financials continue to be an important thing that the market's watching. >> michael, what do you see here for the transports because a lot of people obviously point to the transports and look for the action there? >> you need to focus on the energy markets. that will be a driving force for the transports going forward? >> great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. moving on to the next, the vix spiking roughly 4% as trade is reading the vix here. is the answer to buy cheap protection on your long positions? and mike, it's a little deceptive if you take a look at cash fix. much lower than the futures vix in terms of what the market is telling us we should be in for. >> well, that's exactly correct. although i do feel that obviously when the market gets a little bit stretched you can take that as an opportunity to put some hedges on, even though the longer term futures might be suggesting that the price of options further out is a little bit higher. the action we saw today is pretty much in line with what you would expect with this type of an s&p decline and what do i

mean by that. basically for every 1% move up and down in the s&p, you would expect to see the vix probably move about 0.7 or 70 basis point for that and if we move 70 basis point in the s&p, 45 basis point in the vix, that's pretty much in line. i do think when you see the market getting a little bit stretched, it's up on a stick and the options are cheaper, then obviously it's going to be a good opportunity to consider hedging. >> yeah, you know, i think -- i think a lot of people might be tempted to sul puts now with the one-day move that we've seen to the upside on the vix. i would say, you know what, folks, can be a really dangerous strategy given what we might be about to see so hold back if those are your instincts. >> who loses and wins as rates rise? doug cass has his thoughts and doug rogers, chairman of rogers holdings, gives us his take on the slowdown in china and an emerging market play that may shock you. more "fast money" up next. t.

♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai,

that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪

a wild move in today's volatility trade, the tvix falling 30%. herb greenberg first brought this diversion to your attention and is back at headquarters with more on this developing story. herb? >> yeah, melissa, look, started talking about this at 2:40 on "street signs." down 15%, raising a lot of red flags to many people. then it swiftly fell to be down by more than double that. here's the story, and there's a lot of confusion about this. first, here's the deal. this two times lefrd exchanges-traded note is not tied directly to the vix which measures the implied volatility of the s&p 500 index options. not to get too complicated. instead it's tied to the vix futures, and that has been getting walloped since a key

date here, and that's february 22nd. that's when credit suisse, the issuer of the tvix said it temporarily stopped creating shares in the tvix not giving any reason. now, listen. creation and redemption of shares is what exchange-traded funds and notes live and die by. it's why the industry says there can never be a problem with these because so-called authorized participants, like -- as credit suisse was acting in this case, will act as market-makers, but on february 22nd credit suisse stopped creating shares in the tvix. at that point the tvix started trading like a closed-end fund which means it would trade at either a premium or a discount to its net asset value. the net asset value of the underlying assets, in this case the vix futures. as it happens, it was trading at a premium until today, and then you get that wild action, and i have to tell you something, i look at this. people tell me there have only

been about 30 instances in the past three years where the etns or etfs have not had a creative redemption process. a lot of speculation about what's going on here. i've got to tell you. when you get into a situation like this, this does raise, tells you what some of the little holes are in etfs that the critics have been going off. >> more specifically heard, herb, etns. >> look, exchange-traded products and let's not forget the guys at black rock were actually trying to distance themselves, had a different name they would give the etns, exchange-traded products or something so they wouldn't get confused with the etfs. in the end a lot of similarities, just the underlying assets that might be different and how they are structured obviously. >> herb greenberg, thank you for that. joe, didn't we see this same problem or a similar problem with the ung when they temporarily stopped issuing new shares? mean, there is an underlying -- regardless of whether or not a fund company decides to continue creating new shares, there is an underlying problem of etns in that they don't necessarily

track the futures markets that they are trading directly. >> and i think the message here is that once you participate in either an etn or an etf and it proves that it does not correlate with the underlying asset, the first time it shows you that you don't -- that it doesn't do that, don't be in that etf or etn anymore because it's going to do it again, and it's going to get worse, the pattern. >> right. >> the continuance will show performance that is going to look horrible, both in natural gas and you can see this here in the tvix now. short sellers i would expect in the tvix aggressively going into this product and i would caution folks, a product that becomes broken. >> can i make this one point. >> go ahead. >> just adding on to what joey says. it's the really sophisticated traders who know how to take full advantage of the situation like this. they are having a field day, probably making a bundle, and that -- therein again lies one of the big flaws of what's going on in this market. don't know where the regulators are. don't know why this thing still continues to trade. >> wow.

>> hand this is going to be interesting to watch when and if credit suisse comes back into the process. >> right, right. good point there. mike, in terms of a vix, etn, all the etns out there had that. people might take a look at cash fix and think their vix etn should be moving by the same percentage but, again, it's a problem with it's an aggregate over the curve here. >> that's true, and actually i think part of the steepness that we see in the curve is actually created by these products themselves. there's a lot of demand for volatility products. when you start having these creation issues and also just the term structure itself is being influenced by the high levels of demand and the roles that happen when people try to buy the longer-term futures and sell the near dated ones to try to accommodate the hedging that's necessary. in credit suisse's defense you canned issued a infinitum. has to be a limit on the risk and we're bumping up against some risk hurdles there. >> herb, i don't know if you're still there. >> he's not there. >> i mean, this is a bit of a canary in the coal mine. i mean, if you're trading

anything like this, you're sitting at home and herb just says what he says which is exactly what happens. the hedge fund community, sophisticated traders are going to rip your face off in this situation. like what -- does anybody have an opinion on what you do with the rest of the double or triple butterfly wing nut etfs you have in your portfolio? >> well, sorry, go ahead. >> the quick point i would make is there's a lot of ways to trade, you know, in the derivatives space using lists options. looking at the etns and etfs and don't understand them, just like anything else, don't invest in things you don't understand and if you do enough homework you can probably figure that out. at this point the ones that did their homework are probably making more money than the ones who didn't. >> that would be the minority in this case. >> let's move on to the next right here. rising interest rates inevitable. our next guest says they are and there are clear winners and losers. joining us is doug kass, a cnbc contributor. assuming we're in the rising rate environment, who stands to gain the most?

>> well, two weeks ago on "fast," i believe michelle was subbing for you, mel, which is why i thought the bull market in bonds was over, so i had a lot of reasons for it. we can discuss this another time but let's assume for tonight's argument that it's a given that rates are about to launch a gradual multi--year rise. the question is what industries and companies are the winners and losers? i think there are obvious and less so obvious losers and winners, so let me start with the losers. first, vulnerable companies and industries with large debt-to-equity ratios, obviously. particularly those that have a large amount of variable rate debt and have low returns on assets, so i did a bloomberg screen for this, and i'd be happy to post it on cnbc.com tomorrow morning. it's a good starting point for research, and it comes out that the most vulnerable industry sectors would include telecom. i'm finding a lot of long distance broadband providers on the screen, retail, real estate,

media and materials, some exposed and possible short candidates with large debt loads include companies like pit any bowes, pepco holdings which is engaged in the transmission of electricity and natural gas in the middle atlantic area, century link provides local and long distance network assets, ppl, cmf energy. the second category are high-yielders. now, every strategist on "fast" has been encouraging investors and traders to buy high-yielders over the last few years. now, not only are these yields less competitive if rates rise, but if you consider the proposals by the obama administration to nearly triple the tax on dividends, it's going to make dividends less valuable, so companies like utilities would be losers, a sector that has had terrific share price performance, high debt equity ratios and high yield and pit

any, frontier communication, local and local provider windstream and another one super value and the third losing sector are -- is an industry -- industries that have benefitted from a drop in interest rates but whose margins are going to contract or the products will be reduced like home builders. the winners -- >> hold on, doug, before we move on to the winners. in terms of the losers, you named a lot of companies, a lot of interesting ideas. do you short the names or are these names saying if you're in them, might want to take some off or might not want to buy them if you're in them right now? >> i think that you just consider the screen. do your own research and probably it's best to take advantage of the strength in the last two and a half years and sell them. >> doug, let me ask you the question this way. in the financial sideways which i gather you believe was a space of opportunity. you've got earnings coming. what's your top name? what's the name you want to be long? >> well, banks -- is that joe? >> that is i. >> that gets me to the winners.

the first group -- the most obvious winners are banks. >> but which ones? >> they have run up a lot of it's my view we're in a very fragile muddle through economy which will result in sluggish loan growth and probably the end of the spectacular credit quality cycle which has resulted in substantial drops in loan loss provisions so i think that is probably going to trump the net interest expansion, so i would stay away from the banks. i would be selling the banks. less obvious ben firstry are the life insurance companies, companies like pru, met and lincoln national which have been suffering not only the valuations but they have been hurt because their marginal investment opportunities were low relative to their current yielding portfolio returns, and that will switch back positively, and i also look in the financial sector less obvious areas like discount brokers, etfc, e-trades, schaub, good examples. these companies not only benefit

from a row interrogates out of bonds into stocks, but they have large money balances so their net interest margins lex proceed. >> right. >> doug, it's anthony. just quickly. >> sir anthony. >> this is a macro question. do you think the rising rates are necessarily bad for the economy under the theory that rising rates means that there's a greater demand for capital and money and might be a sign that the economy is starting to expand again and become more robust? >> i don't believe that interest rates will rise because of the vigorous economic recovery. i think that we have a muddle-through economy. i am in keith ecamp, probably around 1.5% real gdp growth for as long as the eye can see. we band-aid the problems in europe and china's obviously going to ease further so we're going to see a flight to safety in bonds, and that will -- that will be the major factor that contributes to a rate rise. remember, over history the yield on the ten-year has approximated

the sum total of nominal growth in gdp which is real gdp plus inflation, so we're at real gdp right now around 2%. inflation is 2.3%, so the ten-year should be yielding 4%, not 2.2%. >> doug, got to leave it there. thanks for your time. always good to speak with you. >> thank you. >> doug kass of sea breeze. coming up next, the traders get to name their own price on shares of priceline. as one analyst predicts it will hit $1,000 a share in the next 24 months. more "fast money" ahead. this is $100,000.

we asked total strangers to watch it for us. thank you so much, i appreciate it, i'll be right back. they didn't take a dime. how much in fees does your bank take to watch your money ? if your bank takes more money than a stranger, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. shares of nike rose 1%, better than shares of nike rose 1%, better than expected. let's get to -- we'll go to

darren rovell in just a moment. meantime, if you had to pick on something in the report -- >> gross margins, a little disappointing. sales in north america were outstanding, that's a surprise and western europe were a surprise as well. want to pick on one thing. look at an inventory build one of two ways. inventory up 32% year over year. you can say that's a good thick or it's sort of augers poorly for margins going forward this. stock has been a monster. no way i would tell to you short this stock here but given the run that it's had and given what potentially could happen to the tape, it's not a bad place to be taking profits. basically at all-time highs. >> 52-week high at 112.97. after hours, 112ish right now. i think when you look at future orders which were up above expectations at 18%, i think the street was looking for 13%, that tells you a lot. you've got the olympics coming. you've got the euro cup coming and also the new nfl uniforms. i think nike is a place that you continue to be.

i also believe that you can find opportunities in both footlocker, ticker symbol fl, and add das. both of those are working right now. >> let's get the latest on the nike conference call. head out to darren rovell at headquarters. ? >> yeah, i think the guys were exactly right. cfo don blair was basically explaining the 32% increase in inventories saying it was pretty much about apparel, builds of apparel in china and europe. also saying that north america, the emerging markets and china, business was so good, and they are having, you know, a lot of efficiency. they were able to get more things to the marketplace. they also warned that inventories might continue to go up a little bit, although they are not happy about it because of the nfl jerseys, making sure that they get enough into the marketplace. they do say on that front that orders were better than expected, even though they expected this to be a robust business. they confirmed that they are going to announce the jerseys on april 3rd in new york city, and

they will start selling them on draft weekend around april 27th. one more -- two more things that really just caught me off guard. converse, they bought that company for about $300 million in 2003. they now say it's a $2.5 billion global business. >> wow. >> talk about an unbelievable turnaround for chuck taylor and a great bet by nike, and they have also said that they have been very -- it's been very beneficial. the running category, they now have had eight consecutive double-digit quarters of growth and that continues to be robust. >> as guy pointed out, get inventories up, gross margins down. think the stock would be down but not so much. one of the few stocks where the street is way low if you go out a few years on earnings. our analyst is 8 bucks an earnings, can't miss that move if that's the actual number. >> let's move on to the next

trade, shares of micron down. revenues better than expected but the loss per share was wider than expected. the ceo also saying on the company's conference call that the pricey environment was weaker than he thought it would be which is never ever a good thing. >> especially in the business. gross margins, 12.6%. street was at 14.4%. that's a pretty -- in my opinion, a pretty staggering miss. what does it means? means a 7% shortage will probably be emboldened tomorrow and look to sit on this thing again. it's not that stretch on evaluation but shorts will try to punish the stock tomorrow. >> average selling prices were also down in the quarter which is also not a good thing. this has been a momentum stock, a pretty good run, regis philbin, some of the knock-on, the follow-through, do we look at a texas instruments, for instance, to see some weakness on this? >> listen, the unfortunate commentary is i believe micron

is nowhere near others in its space are and when you look at texas instruments, a much better company and a sandisk, why are they able to perform in prices where companies are contracting? >> with china slowing, is the u.s. still the best bet and taking a% on housing ahead of home results tomorrow? more "fast money" up next. [ male announcer ] the next generation of lexus cannot be contained. [ clang ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. see your lexus dealer. introducing gold choice. the freedom you can only get from hertz to keep the car you reserved or simply choose another. and it's free. ya know, for whoever you are that day. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.

we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. are connecting here. linkedin connects with the big board.

3q

welcome back to "fast money." live at the nasdaq market site here in times square. china and europe raising new concerns about slowing global growth. investors are worried that the u.s. markets can a couple. let's ask joe lavorgna. great to see you. >> happy to be here. >> in terms of decoupling, can we fully decouple from china and europe if in fact they are slowing more than we expect? >> yes. the only fear of europe is if there's a systemic financial crisis which would obviously hurt the u.s. but the ecb with the ltro certainly took that issue off the table. would i argue we've already decoupled. the chinese equity market with s&p in the last 12 months, so, yes, the u.s. is a closed economy. only 12% of exports are a part of gdp.

we can definitely decouple and would argue we already have. >> when you look at the upside/downside on ud gdp, joe, credit suisse said consensus on gdp is too low and my thoughts is gdp is too high. when you look at how oil prices affect the gdp assumptions, that's your high/low? >> i'm the high end. you're right. high gas prices are a risk to growth, raises a deflator and takes ahold of the commodity economy very quickly. the labor market is better. a powerful offset there. offset maybe a third of the gasoline rise by lower electricity and natural gas use so that's been a powerful offset and, of course, rates are low. yes, you're supposed to be worried about energy, but right now gdp for the quarter is okay, close to 3%. we're going to get a big lift in defense spending. most people don't know that and consumer spending looks okay, given where we are on auto sales. >> if you go back to last year a lot of folks will talk about

private sector job growth. had three consecutive months where you printed above 200,000 and, oops, in the spring, the falough to 108, game over. similar environment? what's the forecast here for next month? >> so, i mean, last year i was bullish and stayed bullish through theier and looked smart and stupid in the year but i would say last year jobless claims were about 420, joe, at this time, up to 480 in april because what have happened in japan. right now we're 348 during the employment survey week. that's basically a four-year low. could we slow this spring? absolutely if oil rises hard from here, but otherwise, no, i think the job market is a lot better. >> joe, real gdp growth what, should be it normalized for our country given productivity gains, population growth, et cetera? >> anthony, would i say that potential is actually under 2%. i think it's probably only 1.5%. >> even though you get 2% productivity gains in the economy. >> yes, why i, a lot of productivity is arithematic and

now numbers are slowing because we're having fewer claims. laying off fewer people. can't boost productivity and even modest gdp growth is pushing the unemployment rate lower. companies have really underinvested in the last cycle. very little capital. >> i'm more talking about the optimal scenario where we start growing again. >> potential will rise. >> rather than where we all want to be. >> 4%? >> in a normal recovery, yeah, 4% to 5% but this has been anything but normal and if we continue to grow over the next year or two, mac up to 2%, maybe 2.5. >> tear nova why are you laughing? >> it's a great campaign slogan. >> the america we want to be. >> the america we want to be. >> vote fscarimucci. >> i can't get in usually so

i'll run with you. >> i'll help out. come see me after the show. >> joe la vorna of deutsche bank. >> new home sale numbers out tomorrow at 10:00. kb home earnings hit the tape before the bell here, so in terms of the housing run, it's amazing, it's close to 52-week highs here. >> helped considerably by a couple stocks we mentioned. let's talk about a story here. look at the earnings a month ago, disastrous, the stock is mas. i'm not saying go out and buy masco but look the at the subsequent price, our crack executive producer flagged that on twitter today. where does that take you? it takes you right back to home depot. i talk about it all the time, for a reason, because the stock continues to perform. i believe we are in the sweet spot for home depot. can you say what you want about the housing market, but it all works for frank blake and what he's doing there, so although i'm -- i can't say any specific home builder, but hd is the place to be. >> certainly the warm weather.

spring planting season which is like christmas for home depot. >> louisiana pacific, lpx, flinched, got out of my longs and the stock will continue to move higher. >> let's hit some options action, i should say. mike, you're taking a look at the home builder etf. xhb. >> this might be a good opportunity in my view to put some hedges on if you want to stay long either some of the big components of xhp into some of the numbers. one way to do that is buy the june puts costing you about 75 cents. stay in your longs and get the pull bark and then we can look to spread the hedge a little bit. >> "options action" tomorrow at 5:00. next on "fast," jim rogers, chairman of rogers holdings on why he's betting the farm on agriculture, and a country that most people probably can't even find on a map. more "fast money" straight ahead. if you are one of the millions of men

who have used androgel 1%, there's big news. presenting androgel 1.62%. both are used to treat men with low testosterone. androgel 1.62% is from the makers of the number one prescribed testosterone replacement therapy. it raises your testosterone levels, and... is concentrated, so you could use less gel. and with androgel 1.62%, you can save on your monthly prescription.

[ male announcer ] dosing and application sites between these products differ. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or, signs in a woman which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are, or may become pregnant or are breast feeding should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. talk to your doctor today about androgel 1.62% so you can use less gel. log on now to androgeloffer.com and you could pay as little as ten dollars a month for androgel 1.62%. what are you waiting for? this is big news.

♪ where the sun never goes out ♪ ♪ and the sky is deep and blue ♪ ♪ won't you take me american flight 280 to miami is now ready for boarding. ♪ there with you fly without putting your life on pause. be yourself. nonstop. american airlines.

crzo, all that top of the hour on "mad money." commodities like oil and copper were down today after disappointing china manufacturing numbers. investors are fearful that the world's second largest economy is heading for a crash, but our next guest says the slowdown is just the opportunity he has been looking for. let's welcome legendary investor and author of the book "a gift to my children," jim rogers. jim, it's great to speak to you again. >> good morning, melissa, how are you or good evening i guess it is there. >> good morning to you, jim. in terms of the pullback that we've seen most recently on these china concerns and they started before the hsbc numbers were out today and started this week with the comments from that bhp executive about slowing iron ore demand. where did you look to first take advantage of this pullback? >> melissa, china has been trying to slow its economy down for three years. they have been trying to pop the real estate bubble for three

years, so it's finally bearing fruit, and i'm delighted to see it. they need to do that. it will be good for china, good for the world and it will present opportunities for all of us. i hope that the chinese market collapses so i can buy chinese shares. >> so at this point you're not using this minor pullback because you're anticipating a bigger one which will be a bigger buying opportunity in your view? >> i certainly expect the world to have more of a slowdown in the next year or two and that will be an opportunity for all of us. >> jim, if you look forward and you see a potential sovereign debt crisis in japan so think about japanese yen down 10%, u.s. dollar up 10% from here. how do you think about risk managing your long commodities exposure in that environment? >> well, i -- i usually try to have some shorts of something. i'm long commodities. if the world economy gets better, commodities are going to do better because of shortages. if the world economy doesn't get better they are going to print money. it's the wrong thing to do, but when they print money, you should own real assets, so what i will do is i will have shorts, probably in the stock market, to

protect myself. i'm nearly always hedged one way or the other. for instance, right now i'm short emerging market stocks as a potential hedge. >> jim, thanks for waging up so early. if the collapse in the chinese shares come to fruition, my belief is that this whole run up that we've seen in u.s. shares is predicated on continued china growth. what does that mean for the u.s. stock market? >> well, i'm very pessimistic about the u.s. stock market. social by the end of this year and into 2013 and 2014, it doesn't even mean it won't continue to rally this year. there's an election this year. mr. obama wants to get re-elected. he's doing everything he can to get re-elected. spending money, printing money, putting out good news, artificial or not, but later this year it's all going to catch up with us. i happen to agree with you 100%. i'm really worried about 2013 and 2014. >> all right. jim, stay right there. we're going to continue our conversation with legendary investor jim rogers on the other side of the break, including a shocking emerging market play. stay tuned. ♪

♪ here we are, me and you ♪ on the road ♪ and we know that it goes on and on ♪ [ female announcer ] you're the boss of your life. in charge of making memories and keeping promises. ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ ♪ oh, oh, all the way ♪ oh, oh ♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪

i care about my car because... i think it's a cool car. i think it's stylish and it makes a statement at the same time. and i've never had a car like that. people don't totally understand how the volt works. when the battery runs down the gas engine operates. i don't ever worry about running out of battery power... because it just switches over to my gas engine. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. i love my chevy volt and i've never loved a car. ♪

let's let's go back to jim rogers chairman of rogers holdings coming to us this evening, this morning for him, from singapore. jim, i want to go straight into your -- what you think is one of

asia's best-kept secrets and that's myanmar. a lot of people will say how the heck do you invest in myanmar? how are you doing it? >> well, melissa, myanmar is an astonishing opportunity. 50 years ago it was the richest country in asia and now it's the poorest because they closed off, but they are just now opening up, just as china did 33, 34 years ago. i find it wildly exciting. the problem, is melissa, that for americans it's illegal to invest there. we live in the land of the free, melissa, so we can't invest where we want to. the rest of the world is pouring in there, so there's nothing i can do right now except wait and watch and hope that the day -- the day that they say you can invest that i can jump in. >> that's the play on your radar right now that you can't partake in. let's go back to some of the plays that our viewers may be able to partake in. you want to short long-term government bonds. that's where you are right now in. >> i shorted some just yesterday. melissa, i hasten to tell you that my timing has not been very good in the bond market the last

two or three years so if i'm doing it, it could be the wrong timing. >> you've been long gold and silver for quite some time and you're advising people to wait for a pullback. what sort of pullback would attract you to get -- to add to your position? >> well, if silver and gold go down, if, again, i'm a bad market timer, if they go down, i will start buying more. if it goes under 1,600 i'll buy a little, goes 1,500, i'll go a little more. you know, who knows how low it could get. if it goes down to 1,200 or 1,300, i'm hoping i can buy a lot more. i'm saying if that happens, i want to jump in and buy more. gold is going higher and silver over the next decade. >> jim, a pleasure to speak with you. thanks so much for your time. hope you'll come back on the show sometime soon. jim rogers joining us from singapore. got your first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. [ female announcer ] you have plans,

moments you're looking forward to. what if they were stolen from you? by alzheimer's. this cruel disease is the nation's sixth leading cause of death, affecting more than 5 million americans. the alzheimer's association has been behind every major advancement and continues to lead the fight against alzheimer's. we won't rest until we have a cure. join us. go to alz.org.

tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're hitting new highs. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the spx is on my radar. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i'm on top of it all with charles schwab. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i use streetsmart edge and its tools like... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 screener plus. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i can custom build my own screens tdd# 1-800-345-2550 or use predefined ones to help me find tdd# 1-800-345-2550 possible trading opportunities quickly. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i can also bounce my ideas off their trading specialists - tdd# 1-800-345-2550 on the phone or face-to-face. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i can trade wherever i want, whenever i want. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the kicker? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i pay $8.95 a trade. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's a deal in any language. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 hey... a breakout on a head and shoulders bottom! tdd# 1-800-345-2550 that's what i'm talking about. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open an account and trade up tdd# 1-800-345-2550 to 6 months commission-free.

tdd# 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-433-9762 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and start trading today. [ donovan ] and i thought "i can't do this, it's just too hard." then there was a moment. when i decided to find a way to keep going. go for olympic gold and go to college too. [ male announcer ] every day we help students earn their bachelor's or master's degree for tomorrow's careers. this is your moment. let nothing stand in your way. devry university, proud to support the education of our u.s. olympic team. final final trade. keith? >> fcx. >> guy? >> did you hear that? hear this. churchill white still. >> anthony in. >> get long johnson and woody johnson. go tebow. >>