tv Mad Money CNBC March 22, 2012 11:00pm-12:00am EDT
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because the new chinese company. of course, that's totally untrue. in fact, i wouldn't be surprised if the burgeoning u.s. market ends up being able to offset china. everybody's dumping caterpillar might be right tomorrow, i bet they'll be wrong in a couple of quarters. i know that's a lifetime for traders and i'm not recommending c.a.t. here because it's still up 17% year-to-date. i'd like it to be lower because the traders have set prices short-term want it low. decline in oil. it's being put at the feet of a slowing china. sure, that's a nice shorthand reason, but i also think people want to sell oil because the saudis have claimed they want to send the price of crude lower. they don't have that kind of production capacity anymore. to me, oil's not going down big, it's just not. and these declines whether based on foreign demand from china or europe or china or libya or iran, i think are opportunities. my charitable trust did some buying today, we had sold a lot of stuff higher because these stocks are reflecting a dramatic slowdown in the economy and sudden decline in oil use. i only wish that were the case.
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in truth, we haven't been able to find enough oil to sate the demand, we will not be able to lower prices any time in the next five years. in other words, we're now in day two of an oil selloff and i'd be surprised if this correction lasted into next week. i don't know, call me simple-minded. good time to buy. finally, a bomb went off in the trannies courtesy of the negativity from federal express when they reported. this has become a time-honored tradition in fedex, they blow in the numbers, that's what they do, they blow away the numbers and then they blow up the buyers by saying lots of gloomy things that make you feel like a chump for owning the stock. i'm starting to find this whole sell fedex before they report tiresome. wait two days and then bottom. it wasn't just fedex, though, the rails got assassinated again because so many hedge funds seemed to believe that the railroads ship to china. when it comes to these stocks,
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it's as if they've laid tracks and interstates connecting shanghai to san francisco. and when china reports some mediocre data, we do this bridge over the river kwai thing and act like we're going to blow up the lincoln. what does this have to do with the price of volleyball? all right. let me tell you. remember that rotation i was talking about, the usa on, china off move? we've got a very serious rotation out of the china-related stocks and into unbelievable -- talked about it with the judge, judge wapner today. technology. and if i didn't point it out, i'd be misleading you about went on in the internals of the market. when people sell china, like the server in volleyball, it gets rotated in the front where it gets ready to spike the ball down the bears' throats. the soon to be spikers think the
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oils, miners and machinery companies are waiting the the next jump up. the selloffs weren't zero sum, they were negative sum. that's no longer the case. today we saw the money rotate back into stocks like google, amazon, f5 and emc. ibm, linkedin rallied again, a huge day up yesterday. microsoft and intel continue acing the bears, serving loopers, they were more like loopers than speedballs. gets them every time. creeping slowly to higher levels. the disk drive makers were hot, western digital, 52-week high, take that bears. also saw fantastic ipo, exact target. a cloud play that sells software as a service to companies that need to have online strategies for twitter, facebook, you know the usual suspects. they pay as much as $25 for a stock priced at $19, hence why i told you to get a piece of it in
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friday's game plan. in the battles of 2011, i think this deal would've flopped if it were even able to come public at all. yep. we witnessed a terrific rotation into high-end apparel and restaurants today. even if they happen to have bountiful business in china. chinese restaurant plays hit 52 week highs today, something that's not supposed to be happening. chipotle hit 52-week high again today. lululemon blows away the numbers, shrugs off the detractors. it was breathtaking, i know it's lululemon. people say oh, woe is me. it was able to counter mcdonalds's because of the retirement of cramer fave jim skinner. one of the most respectable ceos. the stock only shed 92 cents and a tear. the rotation in the dollar
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stores continued apace. dollar general reporting a monster quarter and its rally drove up family dollar and dollar tree where my sister and i go to buy good and plenty and moo cows. everything from beam, it's like jim, to consolation brands to coke and pepsi. the selloff managed to reverse some of the gains. to me, this rotation is not over. these stocks are going to be the servers as the weakness in china construction cannot be extrapolated to them. the bottom line in 2011 weakness in china meant that everything goes down in the volleyball game ended, money pours into bond funds, no rotation. in 2012, it just rotates into another portion of the market that's not connected with china. yep, volleyball in the stock market. two healthy games where the bulls do the serving and the spiking while the bears duck and cover. let's go to dave in california. please, dave? dave? >> caller: boo-yah. two things.
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i have 20% gold in my portfolio, should i keep it or chuck it? and also, what's making the gold supply so volatile? it used to be pretty solid. >> all right, gold, no, i don't want you to drop it. 20% is the max, we know that. india, they've severely restricted gold imports, that's really hurt. a lot of people feel there's deflation going on, that's hurt gold. and a lot of people feel that europeans aren't doing any buying right now. that's hurt gold. i think gold acts pretty well for all the hurt they're putting on it. i'll buy that hurt locker. ed in california, please. ed? >> caller: hey, jim, long time, first time. big socal surf city boo-yah to ya. >> i'm loving that kind of just elaborate geographical boo-yah. what's on your mind? >> first, thanks for getting me into mx at $7.75 a share. >> done. >> caller: i'm calling because i need to know about this lawsuit and this deal with adm. archer daniels midland.
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>> what are you doing messing around with adm? i think that stock has been the same price now for like, you know, 50 years. i want you to do a sell, sell, sell, if you want to get ag in your portfolio, may i suggest you go tech ag, may i suggest you buy dupont. my charitable trust owns that. bulls are serving and they're spiking. bears, they're ducking and they're covering! "mad money" will be right back. coming up -- under pressure. with the price of nat gas sinking, energy plays are trying to pivot from gas into oil. part of the pack, but will it be enough? jim's drilling for profits in his exclusive with the ceo next. and later, check in or check out. cramer's racking up frequent flier miles tonight as he looks for stocks that are flying high but could soon experience a bit of turbulence. time to book them a one-way flight out of your portfolio? plus, the bank job, first horizon is up over 30% so far this year.
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oil sands projects, like kearl, and the keystone pipeline will provide secure and reliable energy to the united states. over the coming years, projects like these could create more than half a million jobs in the us alone. from the canadian border, through the mid west, to the gulf coast. benefiting hundreds of thousands of families throughout the country. this is just what our economy needs right now.
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carrizo oil and gas was eviscerated today. the company presciently decided to transport into a more of an oil producer and there's been nothing short of spectacular. fast forward to today. currently lots of acreage in the eagle ford. i've neglected that. two oily plays i try to focus on and oil makes up more than half of the company's revenues. better still in the most recent quarter, carrizo delivered a 300% increase in oil production. that was 300. the company announced it's selling 250 billion cubic feet in the barnett shale to ath last resource partners for $190 million. money it can use to pay down the credit lines. that's why i'm thrilled to have chip johnson here with us tonight.
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welcome back to "mad money." >> good to see you, jim. >> have a seat. capital one, march 1st, all positive because the stock's been hit. they say we now value carrizo's eagle ford acreage at $30 per share. that is less -- that's above where the stock is currently trading and you got a ton more than just eagle ford. i don't get it. >> that's exactly right. and the other thing we're doing is in the eagle ford, we're testing right now and so is the rest of the industry is can we down space and double that value? >> put more? >> we've put these wells 1,200 feet apart and looks like if you drill them half that far apart you get the same amount of reserves. >> now, you have a 1,200% increase in production since initiating production in november of 2010, but your stock hasn't done anything. meanwhile, oil's going up. are people just saying it's still a nat gas play?
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what makes people realize that you're an oil play? >> what we think is going to happen is as the first and second quarter numbers come out, it will become obvious that now we're at about 60% of our revenue coming from oil. by the end of the year will be at 80%. with the rigs we have running now, we're going to add about 250% oil production from 2011 to 2012. >> now, you still will have increase. you still have to have a drilling budget for barnett, marcellus. can you just -- is there any way to dramatically cut the drilling budget for these nat gas fields? >> on the slides you're looking at, we show only $15 million of drilling budget in the barnett and we basically have now sold off a lot of those reserves. so that number can go down. in the marcellus, most of that money has already been spent or locked in. that's still the most profitable gas play in the u.s. and we're now producing 6 million a day per well gross in that play. but we've cut that way back too
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and our partner -- >> 6 million -- >> cubic feet per day per well. >> now, your value with $2.25 nat gas, you're still making money. >> we're making a lot of money. if you have to drill, the rates of return aren't that good. but the margins on the production are very good. what would happen if tomorrow the post office decided to switch to natural gas trucks, and what would happen if west port and cummins are so successful in getting big fleet trucks to be able to use 25% of the imported oil? what would it do to your natural gas holdings? >> i liked your tomorrow theory. the problem is, this is going to take three to six years, but it's starting. the middle-sized trucks that come back to the same place every night are already starting to do this. the waste companies are way out in front. the long haul trucks, that's a different story. the little cars don't really make that much sense. it's just hard to beat a honda civic that runs on gasoline. but if we can get that middle part of the business using cng,
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we could add 5 bcf a day of demand. >> and you could get -- it's not like it would spike to $14 on that. >> but you'd probably end up in the $6 range where a lot of things are profitable that people have quit drilling. >> it sounds like the best solution is to throw all your eggs in cheniere, which is going to be exporting like mad. >> i'm a little hesitant at sending our gas overseas is going to be approved. i think maybe making widgets with that gas and sending those overseas might get approved. >> now, i'm trying to get my arms around the idea that because of your aggressive oil patch drilling, you are selling what i think will end up being great properties for less than you could get. but you have to do it because your balance sheet. >> well, we've struggled with that. we don't like to sell anything that's a cash cow. but for us, we're all about growth. we're not about just generating cash from our cash cows. and the mlps have a lower cost
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of capital, they have very patient money, and that's the opposite of us. we want to grow. so if we can sell dry gas reserves that we don't think have much upside below $5 gas, we'll take that money and put it into oil plays. >> one last question, answer a question that the bears put to me. the transaction that you just did, that completely covers your cash flow for the year and 2014 doesn't seem to be a problem. but i'd love to hear it from you. >> at our current drilling rate, we can now cover our capex this year with the cash from this sale and our cash flow. first quarter next year, we're throwing off cash, and we'll probably not stay in that situation. we'll probably start adding rigs to use that over time. it looks like in 2013, even with the current rig rates, we could make $750 million of revenue. >> that's huge. jim, i've got to ask this. because to me it's very discouraging. i haven't heard the truth said all day. the lower part of keystone
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doesn't mean anything. the president saying that. but i don't want to use my words. you're an oil man. doesn't matter, expedited lower part of keystone, that's a given. >> well, it's kind of ridiculous. that should have been done first anyway. there's no point in bringing canadian crude to cushing if you can't take it anywhere from there. we're getting a premium in the eagle ford because the gulf coast refineries need the crude. but now this will bring some of that crude down. i'm all for logistics, anything that makes it easier to move product around is better for everybody in the long run. >> excellent. chip johnson, president and ceo of carrizo oil and gas. it's a dramatic discount. nobody cares right now. one day they will. and then you'll look back and think why didn't i do some buying? stay with cramer. >> thank you. coming up -- checked in or checked out? >> ladies and gentlemen, at this time we would like to begin the boarding process -- >> cramer's racking up frequent flier miles tonight as he looks for stocks that are flying high
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is still very much a stock picker's market. unlike last year, declines in the s&p 500 would take down pretty much the entire market. these days, stocks no longer trade in lockstep. stocks of high-quality companies have no trouble breaking free from the gravitational pull of the market. not in 2012. and that makes it all the more important that you be able to identify what's best of breed and what isn't. the averages are down, but a stock like priceline just made a new high today. so tonight as an exercise in separating wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys, we're having a travel faceoff pitting the online travel names against each other. priceline, expedia, orbitz, and travel zoo and trip adviser for good measure. just to teach you how to figure out which one's the best buy. why travel? because this is an industry where you might be tempted to think there's no real difference.
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priceline, expedia, orbitz, they're all about helping you book flights and reservations online, right? finding the best deals, right? how different could they be? turns out, they can be miles apart. even in a business where it seems like all the main players are offering the exact same service, the companies can have a lot that differentiates them. and the same goes for their stocks. online travel, priceline.com is the undisputed best of breed why we've been liking it so much on "mad money" and that's why the stock is up 50%, more than 50% year-to-date. that's why it hit a new high today on an ugly day. and that's why i still think it's the one to buy even though it is the most expensive. remember, we always pay up for best of breed. do i not have my best of breed look today? i pay up for this. it's especially true in a market like we have now that actually discriminates between well-run companies and lousy ones. what makes priceline the strongest player in the space? two reasons, they go where the growth is and they have, yes,
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the best execution. here in the u.s., the online travel space is mature. we've been booking reservations online for the last 15 years. the real growth in this business comes from taking share from the old-fashioned travel agents. and in america, that process has pretty much already unfolded. now we've just got priceline, expedia, and orbitz fighting over a pot of money and the pot isn't expanding as rapidly as it used to be. but the rest of the world, game on! it's different, in the u.s. 60% of travel reservations are booked online. in europe, it's only 40%, emerging markets, 20%. the growth opportunity is over there, not over here. which is why it's so important that priceline already gets 78% of its bookings from international markets. they saw this shift coming. priceline has a big first-mover advantage in europe because they got there before orbitz or expedia. and they've also pushed into emerging markets faster than any
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other online travel sites in 100 countries, more. the issues here are saturation and penetration. the u.s. market became saturated so priceline went overseas, in europe and especially the emerging economies, the penetration of online travel bookings is still very low. which means priceline has many years of international growth ahead of it. we know this because priceline is doing what they already did in america, offering the best deals online and putting travel agents out of business and repeating the process in the rest of the world. in europe, only 6% of hotel bookings go through priceline, which means they still have a ton of room to expand even if the european economy stinks right now. it doesn't matter if europe is weak. this is a secular growth story, more people booking rooms and flights online not more people traveling. plus, there are fewer hotel chains in europe, the market is much more fragmented than it is here. which means european hotels need to list with priceline or risk losing lots of business to their competitors, the europeans travel no matter how poor -- i mean they're amazing, you know, how many guys -- you always see
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these guys like this wherever you go. priceline has consistently delivered terrific results. i just witnessed this latest quarter which the company reported on february 27th. it was a 33 cent earnings beat with a mammoth 52% bookings growth and upside guidance for the next quarter. what was really incredible, this is one of the stocks that gapped up after and didn't give much back. after priceline, i'd say expedia plays second fiddle. they're making the move to international, but the united states still accounts for 60% of the company's bookings and expedia's still in the process of upgrading its platform. something priceline's already done. in other words, expedia's in a very distant second place. no wonder expedia's most recent quarter was a disappointment. revenues coming in substantially lower than expected. that's just pathetic compared to priceline's spectacular 35% top line growth. orbitz, it's even worse.
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they get 75% of their sales from the united states. this is like canceled twice, you know? you're bumped to tomorrow. you stay at a cheap hotel. it's much worse than expedia. and the exact opposite of priceline, which is 22% domestic. to make matters even worse, orbitz is also more dependent on airline bookings, 35% of sales. no surprise that the latest quarter from orbitz was sloppy. they delivered a much larger than expected loss, shrinking revenues, downside guidance. if you're looking to play the online travel space, priceline.com is the only game in town. orbitz, untouchable. expedia's stagnating, priceline is still growing like a weed. i know that $712 share price looks intimidating, remember, any time you're less than 1 time time growth rate, this is extremely cheap. some hedge funds would be willing to pay 40 times earnings. just today, and also piper jaffray slapped $1,000 price target on priceline, based on the expectation the company can
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earn $50 a share in 2014. sounds aggressive, but you wouldn't think so if you simply divided the stock price by ten. is it so hard to think that a $71 stock could go to $100 if the company's going to earn $5 a share? it's okay to buy one share too, or use deep in the money call options to control the upside for many shares while capping your downside. it's a conservative strategy i outline -- at length, i do 100 pages. i know plenty of millionaires who bought shares in berkshire hathaway when it traded in the low hundreds. how about something like travel zoo, which appears to be really inexpensive beaten down 23 bucks, three points off the 52-week low when the market's at a high. remember, travel zoo never sold people airline tickets or hotel rooms, they just advertised the best deals for their subscribers. and lately it's become more of a local deals play. travel's been crushed just like groupon, and turns out the local deal market isn't as hot as people thought and no barriers to entry.
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to me, this is a momentum stock, this has lost its momentum and you have to stay away. as for trip adviser, a service i use extensively that matters for the inn that i own -- the travel review business that was spun off by expedia, i thought this company add a lot of potential, but the first quarter as a public company. i'm calling it messy and i'm being statesmanlike. i need to see more evidence they know what they're doing before i can bless it. here's the bottom line, in a stock picker's market, you have to know how to identify the best players in any given industry. priceline.com wins by a mile, which is why i think the stock is still worth buying. even up here at $712. and especially if it gets cracked by a market that thinks it's headquartered at the great wall and not on wall street. i want to go to leo in louisiana. leo? >> hey, big baton rouge boo-yah, jim. >> oh, crawfish boo-yah back at you, partner. >> caller: i'll send you some.
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i've been with delta airlines all my life, still my favorite carrier, but i've been following the stock since $75, now it's below $10. i'm encouraged by the team that they're spending $2 billion for airport upgrades and they're embracing the internet finally as a friend and not an enemy and using that to fill the seats with warm bodies. if the saudis increase production and push down fuel costs, please tell me they're poised for a comeback. >> i can't do that because i don't trust the saudis. you know who they are? i think they're big hat and no cattle. let's go to paul in california. paul? >> caller: jim, boo-yah. >> boo-yah, captain, what's going on there? >> caller: what is the direction on the american express stock with changing technology and advancing economy. >> my charitable trust owns it.
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it is hated by many analysts who follow it. they don't understand the expense structure, they love mastercard and visa. i don't blame them, i think mastercard may be one of the greatest stocks in history. but american express doesn't get its due. discovery gets more due than american express. that's wrong. you can't go anywhere without a fanny pack, and i'm going on vacation. you know what i'm taking with it? i'm going on priceline. the rest of your guys, ha, see for yourself. stay with cramer! coming up, the clock is ticking, call cramer at 1-800-743-cnbc to find out how to fire away at cramer on the "lightning round." can he withstand your thunderous onslaught of stocks? [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles,
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the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." rapid-fire calls. i tell you whether to buy or sell. my staff prepares the graphics. we play until this sound and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready? time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." start with gabriel in new york. gabriel? >> caller: hey, mr. cramer, how are you? i want to give you apple, priceline and google, leader trade trifecta boo-yah. >> that's a group i could get behind. that's win play show, partner. what's up? >> caller: i'm calling about amerin corp. they got a nice upgrade for $23 a share, the buying has been crazy. it's a spec play. >> no, it's 100% spec. but i'm endorsing specs after doing analysis for the first seven years of the show where massive amount of performances come from specs. i'd say one of your five can be speculative. i'm putting it out there. i want to go to jason in tennessee. jason?
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>> caller: hey, cramer. >> yo, yo. go ahead, jason. >> caller: jason here, big semper fi boo-yah from the marine veteran from lebanon, tennessee. >> and thank you for serving, boo-yah. >> caller: thank you. what do you think of sand ridge energy incorporated? >> i think every time oil goes down a couple of bucks, this gets hammered. tom ward will be brian sullivan's guest and brian sullivan is guesting for larry kudlow, so it's guest to guest to guest, i like sand ridge sd. charlie? >> caller: hey, jim, how are you? >> real good, char, how are you? >> caller: you are right, last september made about 121%, what do i do? >> listen to stephanie link who was on judge wapner's show, she said that was her trade, she's also the research director of actionsalertplus.com. if you can get that in the mid-30s. >> buy, buy, buy!
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>> ken in illinois? >> caller: boo-yah to ya jim. >> we're all heart and soul illini here. >> caller: it has been a tough year. >> that's right. hope springs eternal. >> caller: my stock is hk. >> you know, this is just again, i like these oil companies that have good southeast, southern oil exposure. now, is this the best one? i actually prefer carrizo to these guys, but i like the space. i want to go to nathan in my old home state of pennsylvania. >> caller: boo-yah from penn state university. >> yes! nittany lions, go! what's on your mind? >> caller: i'm wondering about invn. >> i've got to look at that stock. it's a game controller mobile hand set play. and herb greenberg's got me nervous about game stock. i'm going to come back with a better read. brad in florida, brad?
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>> caller: hey, boo-yah, jim, how are you? >> i'm real good. how about you? >> caller: well, i'm calling you really not from florida, i'm calling you from the best state in the union. massachusetts. >> all right. i'm willing to be open-minded fella about that. >> caller: we've got the celtics, we've got the bruins and of course, the boston red sox. >> well, we've got the sixers, we've got -- all right, go ahead. >> we'll see you in the world series. >> caller: pacd. >> you know, very speculative. you know, i've been chastised by the drillers. they've become a very tough place. but this one is deep ultra water. and that is the one segment that is worth owning, so i'm going to bless it. i am going to bless it because i like deep water. i'm going to say that schlumberger should be bought.
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kurt in colorado. >> boo-yah from ft. collins, jim. >> oh, man, what's going on? >> caller: i wanted to get your opinion on new york stock exchange, nyx. >> very tough call because the yield's good, 4%, but my problem is, i want to see some growth. and until i see some growth, the yield is not enough for me. david in california. david? >> caller: boo-yah, jim, boo-yah from sunny california. >> nice. >> caller: i've got a quick question. a company i made a lot of money on a few years back but just crazy and i don't know if i should get back in or not, fuel systems solutions. >> it's a speculative play. it's like clean energy at this point, clne, the only difference it's got earnings, but i'm not going to recommend the stock. >> don't buy. >> and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade. paperless discount. paid-in-full discount. [yawning] homeowner's discount.
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so why do banks do it ? hello ? hello ?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello ? ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. wow. this is new. yep, i'm sending the dancing chicken to every store in the franchise to get the word out. that could work. or you could use every door direct mail from the postal service. it'll help you and all your franchisees
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find the customers that matter most -- the ones in the neighborhood. you print it or we'll help you find a local partner. great. keep it moving, honey. honey? that's my wife. wow. there you go. there you go. [ male announcer ] go online to reach every home, every address, every time with every door direct mail. when we get hit with a market-wide selloff courtesy of worries about china and europe. this kind of action is a buying opportunity. especially in stocks that total domestic companies that have nothing to do with europe or china. take the financials.
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this group took it on the chin today but nothing happened to make things worse for our domestic banks. in fact, we got an excellent jobless claims figure. so things are actually getting better here and remember i say usa on china, off. the banks have been rallying like crazy, it's not surprising they pull back a little bit given how overbought the group is. this banking rally isn't over, it's just resting. and you know my favorites are the regional since they're in the best position to take advantage of the bottom in housing, rebound in commercial construction and resurgence in hiring all over this country, that's why i think you got a real bargain in first horizon with 200 branches across the southeast. things are looking up for this well-run regional. first horizon got downgraded by morgan stanley with shares up 30% year-to-date, and the stock fell 49 cents, 4.9%. not only is business improving, but management has said they're committed to returning tremendous amounts of capital to
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shareholders this year. tremendous was their word, not mine. the company already unveiled $100 million buyback in october and february 1st spent nearly half of that money. first horizon has so much excess capital we can see attempts in my opinion. wells fargo says first horizon could have excess released to shareholders, the equivalent to 28% share price. first horizon is up 15% since january 20th. i think there could be much more upside ahead, especially if management announced a massive buyback further, including the one they have and even better to me, a monster dividend boost. don't just take it from me. let's check in with brian jordan, chairman, president, and ceo of first horizon national. welcome back to "mad money." >> thank you, jim. it's good to be back. >> oh, terrific. so i've got to start with this downgrade today, it's morgan stanley. they are saying, look, we've reached the price target which is actually down from last year, and they're saying that you may
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have elevated risk of the fannies and freddies giving you more mortgages they don't care for. to me the problem has peaked but they're saying it's accelerating. but who's right? >> well, we've said for the last several quarters we think we're on the backside of the mortgage repurchase issue. we have been out of the mortgage business since august of 2008. so it's 40 months or so since the last time we originated and sold a loan to the gses. and so we think we're on the backside of that. it takes a while for the agencies to work through any backlog. it has been an earnings headwind for us over the last several years. but if you take that away, the core fundamentals of the business continue to improve in our capital markets or fixed income distribution business and in our core banking business. so the headwind will probably persist for a while longer, but to my earlier point, we think we're on the back half of the gse repurchase issue.
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>> well, in your presentation on march 8th up at the citi financial services, you say that nonstrategic expenses total $302 million in 2011, $160 million of that was this gse mortgage repurchase expense. you think if we're on the backside of this, that's a number that's really hurt earnings that i will not have to worry about two years from now. >> that's right. we think -- and the other way we've talked about it, jim, is that we expect to get our expenses down to in the $1 billion range, which we're close to $1.3 billion in 2011. a big component of it is $160 million that you mentioned. so we expect over the next couple of years to see a significant reduction in our cost structure, that being a significant element. >> it's clear from your presentations that revenues can go higher and your net interest margin, which is not doing that well, is doing better, is that because of your region or because of some of the policies you have to make it easier to get a loan than the other guys in your neighborhood? >> yeah, our net interest margin is really positioned to be much stronger when the yield curve
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steepens and interest rates go up. there are a couple of fundamental drivers for why the starts at a relatively lower place. some of it is the national legacy lending businesses. but we have a tremendous amount of loan demand and strength in our balance sheet and our portfolio is largely a floating rate portfolio. so we have what's called a great deal of asset sensitivity, meaning that we will benefit from rates going up and the yield curve steepening. >> if that's the case, and i was just talking at the introduction, wells fargo talking about a huge amount of excess tier one capital. you do have a very small dividend. i understand they have to be approved by your board. but what would be a normalized level of first horizon dividend if we didn't have big mortgage putbacks and a better yield curve? >> well, it looks to us like the fed has set a 30% payout ratio in terms of fixed dividend and you use stock repurchases like we're doing to augment
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that. our earnings because of the mortgage repurchasers are somewhat lower and have had some volatility associated with those repurchases. so as a result of that, we've used the stock repurchase program rather than trying to fix an increase in the dividend today as a way to get capital back and shareholders. and as you and your viewers note. they're fundamentally the same other than the fact there's more discretion around the buyback. so we're going to evaluate the dividend in appropriate course, but right now we're using the buyback program to get cash back and our shareholders' hands as is appropriate. >> one last question. >> sure. >> if i'm right, the housing's bottomed and it goes up. is that another elixir that will take care of the problems you have? >> i think it'll help a tremendous amount. i think it's a signal that the economy is going to get better. it means in my view you'll start to see interest rates moving up, the economy recovering at a faster pace, all of which will help us and help us in the mortgage repurchase risk. i think the economy is gradually
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making progress, and we'll benefit from that just like everyone else. >> terrific. that's brian jordan, thank you so much for coming on the show. brian is chairman, president, and ceo of first horizon. look, guys, it's a $10 stock, it should be much higher. you should stay with first horizon and stay with cramer. [ male announcer ] if you believe the mayan calendar,
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but say the sun rises on december 22nd and you still need to retire, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans? now, this is the goldman sachs i know and respect. this is the goldman sachs i went
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to work for nearly 30 years ago. this is the goldman sachs i would hire as my banker. i'm talking about the tough decision goldman made to find out who's calling their customers muppets. when greg smith delivered his bombshell of a resignation letter to the "new york times" op-ed page. they say they'll take appropriate action against those employees who trash the people who pay goldman's bills, the clients themselves. before i get into why this is the right move by a firm that likes to think it's beyond reproach. i thought smith's op-ed was a cheap shot. i wouldn't leave a place and blow the whistle unless i'd discover illegal, actual illegal behavior, and report it to the appropriate authorities. if the executives who are required to look into these things by law had deep sixed the matter, then and only then would i write an op-ed about it. many people suggested to me that smith was nothing more than a
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disgruntled underachieving worker looking for a screen play contract. i can think of a lot better ways to go hollywood. and apparently the term muppet is a widely used piece of british slang that's akin to calling someone a moron, not some horrible investment banking term for dupe. but once the assault is published in the "new york times," in the paper of record, you can't act as if it was a crock, which was the arrogant initial response. i was sickened by the blast the messenger reaction as were many other former goldman people i regularly speak to. my goldman alumni friends wanted to know who viewed clients that way and wanted them purged immediately. the charges couldn't be dismissed simply because the former employee wasn't a heavyweight partner. they need to be shown the door immediately. it's never been more necessary are entire books and whole for goldman, given that there are entire books and whole congressional hearings to how goldman sachs abused clients in
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the name of short-term greed. over the years goldman made money while others lost it. and if they were really so greedy, then the clients would've departed and business would have gone away. that hasn't happened. so everything they think must be hunky dorey. now they are going to investigate to see if there aren't people who don't fit the credo or the founding principles of the firm. i do hope it's a chips may fall investigation and those who trash the firm's clients will end up being exposed and fired immediately. so even though their initial action was poor form, it's never too late to do the right thing. it's a positive, not a negative, which is why i'm acting like this here on "mad money." let's hope those who resent their clients no longer get to cloak themselves in goldman clothing. i say, here's your hat, what's your hurry? and don't let the door hit you on the way out. stay with cramer.
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remember, we're rotating here. right now, the foods, they're hot. the restaurants are hot, and oddly, technology is hot. those are serving, rotating to the front, getting ready to spike. are the oils and the machinery, we have to let them come down because the shorts are building, the hedge funds ha t
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