a triple-digit gain. the quarter is winding down. s&p up 12% year-to-date. best quarter for the s&p since 1998. that does it for us. don't forget to catch more tonight 5:00 p.m. eastern time. follow me on twitter. power begins right now. and exactly three hours to go in the trading day and the markets are off to the races. you can call it what you want, but we're calling it the bernanke-effect. his remarks on the economy sent stocks higher. find out why today's power player says you may want to be a little careful before you jump in. >> counting pills and counting profits. walgreens reports earnings tomorrow. find out what you should do with that stock today. welcome back, brian. >> supply is higher and demand is lower, why do gas prices keep going up? we'll explain in our special report on oil shock with tyler mathisen, sue herera, i'm brian shactman. "power lunch" begins right now. stocks are in the green across

the board. and really amazing scotty referenced a minute ago, dow, s&p, nasdaq, having their best first quarter since 1998. where were you in 1998? pulse of the markets big day for gold. we have the indices off highs. gold is up $21 yield on the 10-year back on the rise at 2.25%. and we have a weaker dollar, the euro now above 1.33. midday movers, healthcare stocks higher today. the supreme court of course hearing arguments on the president's healthcare. that is up 4.5% based on what happens we'll see what health care stocks do moving forward. jpmorgan up 1.5%. and now the second best by far performer in the dow after bank of america. some energy stocks not so hot. alpha natural down more than 3% at this hour. i want to get to the trading floors more detail from bob pisani at the nyse. hey, bob. >> hello, brian. on the surface, folks, things look pretty good. three to one advancing to

declining stocks. you like to see that. volume is fair. number of stocks hit new highs nicely expanding. in fact, we're doing fairly well. and a nice little eclectic group of stocks at new highs. i love when you get a financial at a new high, a tech at a new high, pharmaceutical at a new high, consumers and discretionary at new highs. nice diversification of new highs. here's what worries me, guys. i don't like it when i see things like problems in the housing market. for the last week now the data's been a little bit weaker than anticipated. so what's up with pending home sales today? below expectations. then we have new home sales below expectations, existing home sales, housing stocks, all this from last week we bow expectations. the housing stocks have been rolling over. it wasn't just what we had with kb home on friday, which surprised everyone with numbers way off expectations. put up kb home. you see what's been going on here. ever since they've seen the data going south, home builders have been going south. kb home down about 14% so far this month.

keep an eye on that one. elsewhere, if you look at around the world i look at the big global names and the commodity stocks. and today on a huge up day for the market or a big up day for the market, very mixed picture. you have alcoa and freeport-mcmoran, but most steel stocks on either side of positive or negative. and most of the big mining names are down. coal stocks generally down. you saw brian talking about alpha natural resources. sue, bottom line is, yes, market's up, there are some things to praise, but i see a little wariness elsewhere in housing and global stocks. back to you. >> we'll talk more about that with our market guru in just a few minutes, bob. thank you. first let's switch on the "power lunch" power surge and drill down on the stories driving the day. stocks rallying on mr. bernanke's speech. he's not ready to abandon his easy money policy despite an improving jobs picture.

kelly evans has the fallout. >> the fed chief certainly seemed to leave the option open saying more stimulus to boost the economy may be need today keep the unemployment rate from staying permanently high in something that's known as historysis. >> further significant improves will require more rapid production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies. >> continued accommodative policies. the question is just what form they might take. another round of buying treasuri treasuries? could it be mortgage backed securities this time? expect more details at the fed's april meeting if not sooner. by the way, stocks may be up but it's hardly encouraging that four years after the financial crisis this market still can't seem to stand on its own. >> tyler. >> kelly, thank you very much. you know, bob pisani said he didn't like it when numbers were as iffy as they've been in the

past week and the latest read given bernanke strength. more pullback in sales. diana olick is covering it from washington. >> after all kinds of disappointments with the housing data last week, this week begins no better. contracts to buy existing homes turned negative. but the expectation was for a gain. now, the realtors want us to look at the 9.2% year over year increase in sales, but if we're in solid recovery, reneed to see monthly numbers improve as well. only the midwest was in the positive. you might have expected the northeast to see better gains given the mild weather, but perhaps demand was pulled forward. one culprit could be the spike in mortgage rates we saw in february. still low by historical standards, but we also saw fha fees go up as well. so the usual question is how much do these pending numbers correlate to actual existing sales closings? right now 33% of realtors are reporting at least one cancellation of a contract.

that doesn't mean they won't go back to the table, but that is well above the historical norm. so we're actually talking today about whether this housing recovery is going into something of a relapse. that's on the blog. realtycheck.cnbc.com. >> diana, thank you. companies in almost every sector watching a key set of hearings in front of the u.s. supreme court this week. at issue, president obama's historic healthcare overhaul. hampton is at the supreme court where the first day of arguments has now concluded. >> hi, sue. after the first 90 minutes of arguments here on day one, we essentially got a signal from the nine justices that there's absolutely no reason why they can't move forward and decide this case now. and at the heart of president obama's healthcare law of course the individual mandate with penalties that people have to have insurance. now, while the arguments were going on, there were about 100 demonstrators outside chanting very loudly. don't know if the justices heard them, but front in center was a

tax law that said people should pay first and litigate later when it comes to challenging taxes in questions from both liberal and conservative court justices we heard uniform skepticism about that notion. if in fact the justices' view it's not attacks, that would be the legal green light to move to the central issue in the case. and that's the overall constitutionality. hints from the justices themselves about what they think about that individual mandate, we had questions from chief justice john roberts at one point who says he does view sort of the mandate and the penalties attached in tandem saying why in essence have an act or program with no tooth in it? but, of course, getting over this hump of whether or not lawsuits could go forward, that was really the worst case nightmare for the states and government. they like a lot of us want the court to decide this case one way or the other. sue. >> so we have a couple more days of arguments and hearings.

what are the expectations, hampton, in terms of a possible decision and when that might come down? >> well, more than likely given the historic nature of this case, how controversial it is, how complex, more than likely we're not going to get a decision until the court ends its term most likely the last week in june. of course right in the heart of the presidential campaign. but tomorrow you're going to hear the stark contrasts about the whole notion of the individual mandate. the federal government saying this is nothing more than expansion of the commerce clause in an effort by congress to regulate health insurance. the states and independent businesses arguing on the other hand it's one thing to enhance and expand commerce, but it's another thing to compel individuals to participate in that commerce, in this case by having to go out and buy insurance. >> hampton, thank you. we are also watching yahoo today. the struggling online giant reshuffling its board as it gears up for a nasty proxy fight with one of its biggest

shareholders. jon fortt is in silicon valley with the latest. jon. >> tyler, not a huge surprise, but yahoo has thrown down the gauntlet for a full-fledged proxy fight later this year. the company appointed three new directors effective thursday of next week. solid resumes are represented there. john hayes is chief marketing officer at american express. peter is a former executive at discovery communications and fox. and thomas is outgoing cfo of iac. now, of course, at the same time four current board members including the chairman have said they won't stand for re-election. and we had co-founder jerry yang step down earlier this year. what does this mean for the sock? daniel loeb says this guarantees a fight yahoo can't afford right now. this reminds me of the fight at hp over a decade ago over whether to buy compact. no matter who wins, there will be lots of bruises here on either side. back to you. >> all right. thank you very much, jon. >> meanwhile, that former

goldman sachs executive who wrote that stinging op ed piece accusing the firm of calling its clients muppets may now be shopping around for a book deal. kate kelly is here with duh tails on this one. >> yes. after the op ed piece in which greg smith former equity based in london called goldman sachs environment inevitable book sales have begun. some submitted bids by the end of the week. the bidding has gotten to well north of $1 million i'm told and perhaps we could see millions being paid to greg smith. apparently he and his agent are presenting the book as a memoir and a kind of cautionary tale for wall street. smith apparently see himself as a friend of the industry, a friend of goldman sachs who wants to use his experience there over the course of 12 years to kind of talk about how culture and ethics can and should improve. that was the tone of his "new

york times" piece, sue. and we can probably expect to see more of that in the book. a decision on who's going to publish the book could come any time now i'm told. i'll try to keep viewers posted throughout the week. >> excellent. look forward to it very much. wonder who the front runner will be on that. the one with the deepest pockets. >> kenny white and lewis -- >> that's another question. >> up next, the last time this power player joined us on "power lunch" in december, he recommended a stock that is now up more than 30% since that time. find out what his next big play is. plus, oil shock. we're going to tell you which airline and trucking stocks are best positioned to ride out soaring fuel costs. and as we head to break, here's a look at some of the other market indices we follow. all in the green. pretty solidly for the russell 2000 which is up almost 1.5%. [ donovan ] i hit a wall. and i thought "i can't do this, it's just too hard." then there was a moment.

when i decided to find a way to keep going. go for olympic gold and go to college too. [ male announcer ] every day we help students earn their bachelor's or master's degree for tomorrow's careers. this is your moment. let nothing stand in your way. devry university, proud to support the education of our u.s. olympic team. two of the most important are energy security and economic growth. north america actually has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. a large part of that is oil sands. this resource has the ability to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. at our kearl project in canada, we'll be able to produce these oil sands with the same emissions as many other oils and that's a huge breakthrough. that's good for our country's energy security and our economy.

the dow, well, the dow is up, but this stock certainly is not. not that it's a member of dow. the electric car battery maker off 14%. note this is just $1.46 stock. all righty. let's take a look at the treasury market right now where the 10-year note is as red as my dress today. the yield back up a little bit to just about the 2.25% mark. and the yield on the 30-year has backed up as well. that is as the money is coming out of the bond market and into

that triple-digit advance in the stock market today. let's get more on what might drive the bond market for what is going to be a very busy week. joining us from the cme group in chicago is holly liss. good to see you again, holly. >> thanks, sue. >> let's talk first of all about the week ahead. you told us last week in our trader triple play that we might indeed see a backup in yield. on the other hand you were saying there was the outside chance that yields might indeed go back down again. and then we had mr. bernanke speaking today. what's front and center on your radar for the bond market this week? >> i would say right now it's the fed speakers. you have quite a few fed speakers besides chairman bernanke and plosser this morning. i think you've got another ten opportunities to hear them speak. and many of them are voting members of the fomc. also, if you recall, when they changed over the voting members at the new year, a lot of them moved into the neutral to dovish camp from last year's neutral to hawkish camp. so with all those voting members speaking and they do allow them to vote this year that they

could be saying things that are a little bit more positive for the treasury market. so in that respect we could get a little bit of a boost to the treasuries even though we're not seeing it today. >> you know, how do you interpret mr. bernanke's comments? we're talking to people in the stock market who are interpreting it as more qe is on the way. is that your read as well or not? >> you know, i don't know that they want to do that just yet because some of the data has been coming out a little bit better. certainly the employment numbers, jobless claims have been doing better. today's numbers were a little bit on the mixed side, but the pending home sales year over year still very strong. so i don't know that they want to come right out just yet and say qe-3 is definite. clearly with more doves on the fomc committee that you could get that situation, but with the stronger data or at least a little bit better, i don't know that they want to come out and announce that just yet. now, that could all change at the end of the year when we get a change in the fiscal policy and things like that, that may change. but i think right now they don't necessarily want to come out and

announce it even if people are interpreting that they are hinting at it. >> holly, thank you. appreciate it very much. >> thanks. >> ty, over to you. we may be in the red in the stock market, but the stocks are green. >> stocks rebounding from their worst week this year, not that it was all that bad a week after the fed chief bernanke in a speech earlier this morning did seem to suggest at least to some that a third round of quantitative easing remains a serious option and that's pretty much all it took for the bulls to push ahead. let's bring in andrew managing director at morgan stanley he's got $1.6 trillion in client assets. andrew, welcome back to "power lunch." good to see you. >> thank you. >> you think basically that after this strong first quarter performance that april is going to be a somewhat spotty month. explain why. >> yeah. i mean, typically after a very strong first quarter of the year, april 10th to tends to be flattish month.

i think you have a situation where some of the economic data in the first quarter was due to weather. so there's a risk of that. and i also think that probably it's coming into quarterly earnings report season when companies probably temper enthusiasm as we saw in fed ex last thursday and k.b. homes on friday. i think those are reasons to be, you know, less optimistic. now, the flip side is there's so much cash on the sidelines that any pullback is perceived as an opportunity for people that are underinvested to get in. so i don't think we're going to have a meaningful pullback, i just don't see the market making great strides in april. although i still think the market will be substantially higher by year end. >> that was the question i was going to ask. we just got some data that there have been 13 times when the s&p has had gains in the first quarter of greater since 1950 of greater than 8%. and in every one of those cases including 1987, the year of the crash, the market did end the

year higher with an average gain of something on the order of 22% or thereabouts. so how do you think the rest of the year is going to go? and what kinds of equities would you be buying right now? >> look, the thing i think the bears have forgotten, rule number one investing, page one of the investing handbook says don't fight the fed. why is the market up today is because of what chairman bernanke said today. you have a very accommodative fed. and not only the fed, you have the ecb, the bank of china. so you have very accommodative governments around the world. this is a time to be invested on what i would call risk-on equities. growth equities should do very well this year. >> and we're showing some of the stocks that you're bullish on that include monster beverage, apple on the one hand. and you've been bullish on apple for some time now. but on the other hand you have dollar tree and mcdonald's. sounds like you're hedging in there. >> absolutely. now's a time mcdonald's is down

year-to-date. and apple's up huge. and i still like it. and i think it's going higher from here. but i think you want to balance your high growth stocks. it's all about portfolio construction, right. you want to balance your high growth stocks with some good quality stable growers as well. >> how important are dividends? because they were hot last year. >> not at all. >> why? >> not at all. it's the most overcrowded trade. i've talked about this before. the returns this year are going to come from appreciation not dividends. at the end of the last year utilities were trading at a 45-year relative p/e high. there's too much money chasing dividend yields and what they've forgotten about the fact is that there are a lot of growth stocks like apple that are trading at very low valuations. >> and you said the last time you were here you liked apple. that was the 27th of january. since then up 34%. you like monster beverage back in december. >> you would give me a little grief about that. >> no. i'm not giving you any grief. you make us money.

i'm not going to give anybody grief. i want to ask you about one of your picks and that is netease, which is a chinese gaming stock, right? >> trades here ntes. in 2009 the chinese market was red ho a lot of money poured into china. the chinese market was up 80%. at the time netease traded at 20 times earnings. since then they have doubled their earnings. the chinese market's down 25%. and the stock now trades at 12 times earnings for a business that's a great recuring business. they have $15 a share cash on their books. again, you have an accommodative fi fiscal policy in china. good stable balance sheet. >> bottom line, don't fight the fed. >> exactly. thank you. >> basic question when investing in a stock, is it going up or down? right now cnbc.com has 20 stocks

with the potential to drop. that sounds like all the ones i used to own. a lot had potential to drop. >> you're a leading indicator. >> when i get in, you get out. >> we have much more ahead on "power lunch." up next we're going to go live inside cuba. michelle caruso-cabrera is there. she begins three days of special reporting on the people, the economy and the arrival of the pope. >> and later, oil shock. it is hitting the airlines, which some of which trying to boost fares. we're going to tell you which airlines are best positioned and which should be in your portfolio right now. [ male announcer ] any technology not moving forward is moving backward. [ engine turns over, tires squeal ] introducing the lexus enform app suite --

available now on the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. see your lexus dealer. laces? really? slip-on's the way to go. more people do that, security would be like -- there's no charge for the bag. thanks. i know a quiet little place where we can get some work done. there's a three-prong plug. i have club passes. [ male announcer ] get the mileage card with special perks on united, like a free checked bag, united club passes, and priority boarding. thanks. ♪ okay. what's your secret? [ male announcer ] the united mileageplus explorer card. get it and you're in. (sfx: car garage sounds) today my journey brings me to charlotte, north carolina, where i spent the day with geico driver casey mears. i told him the secret to saving money on car insurance. he told me the secret to his car setup. first he adjusts... first he adjusts... (sfx:engine revving drowns out gecko's dialogue) then he... then he... (sfx:loud drilling noise continues to drown out gecko's dialogue) ...and a quarter cup of pineapple juice. or was that the secret to his barbecue sauce? hey, "secret" sauce.

geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. introducing gold choice. the freedom you can only get from hertz to keep the car you reserved or simply choose another. and it's free. ya know, for whoever you are that day. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz.

we are about two we are about two hours away from pope benedict's big trip to cuba. making this the first visit to the island nation since 1998. a lot in the world has changed of course since then. but cuba is still a communist country. our chief international correspondent, michelle caruso-cabrera, joins us live from havana. michelle. >> tyler, pope benedict may be a religious figure but he's making waves by what he's saying about the economic model. listen to what he told reporters as he flew to latin america "it is evident today that marxist idealology as it had been conceived no longer responds to reality." the writer of the communist manifesto. for those under 30 and don't

remember the soviet union, communism is an economic model where the state controls and dictates the distribution of all the country's resources. there are very few countries in the world still communist, but cuba is still one of them. it's been that way ever since fidel castro went to power back in 1959. and since his brother ra ul took over in 2006. for as long as a castro has been in power in cuba, the u.s. government has been trying to get him out of power. in fact, to this day every single year the taxpayer spends millions on a little known broadcaster in miami, florida. >> five, four, three, two, one. rolling. >> reporter: this is part of a $28 million government run program paid for by u.s. taxpayers. and it's not just tv. there's radio and a website. all with the same goal.

to send news and information to cuba. >> we are connecting with the people inside cuba. >> reporter: carlos is the director of a multimedia platform operated out of miami, florida. >> what's the mission officially? >> the free flow information to cuba. we give them the good and bad news, but we tell them the truth. >> reporter: the program is part of the office of cuba broadcasting which falls under the u.s. broadcasting board of governors. is this propaganda? >> no, it's not. >> reporter: and you can see a lot more of that tonight 9:00 p.m. eastern time on cnbc "cuba: forbidden fortune." we take a very cnbc-look at a problem that's always been looked at politically with a lot of strident dialogue. instead we look at the business if what would happen if the embargo went away. if you tune in tonight we'll take a closer look at a company in the united states that is doing business with cuba.

tyler, back to you. >> michelle, what can you tell us about any market-based economic reforms taking place in cuba? some people think maybe it could become a kind of china of the caribbean. true, false? >> yeah. so two things have happened in the last year. in cuba. they have said now individuals for the first time in 50 years can buy and sell their homes and or their cars. and there are now 180 different occupations where you're allowed to be self-employed and not necessarily work for the government. a lot of folks have looked at those two things and said, oh, this is like china in the early 1980s. they're going to start moving toward a market economy. people within the government say absolutely not. we're not abandoning socialism in this country "instead we're trying to perfect the socialist model." a lot of skeptics in miami, exiles in miami, believe the same thing. this is just a way to reduce a pressure valve from an unhappy society. still, we'll see. it is more of a market move than they've made in a long time. and maybe will lead to change.

more about that very issue tonight at 9:00 p.m. >> that's right. thank you very much, michelle. just one more time, don't miss that original documentary that michelle's produced called "cuba: forbidden fortune". "the hunger games" as you know certainly the darling of hollywood this past weekend. the stock for lionsgate is certainly the darling of wall street today. a stock that's had a great run. it's up more than 3% today. ticket sales surpassing even the most optimistic. $155 million. piper jaffry out with a note today, an analyst on the "halftime report" raised price target. and i love the quote he had. buy more on rumor and buy more on the news. profit forecasts are now higher for the entire four-film franchise. expend it's not just a "the

hunger games" story. it's an interesting stock story. look at the run the stock has had. 80% year-to-date. he says there is simply more room to run. ty. >> thank you very much. we're keeping a close eye on the pharmacy stocks today. walgreens reports earnings tomorrow. we're going to preview that company and see whether it's the right prescription for your portfolio. but first, a big jump in gold for most of the morning. the closing floor trades are coming up. and that's happening in just a few minutes. a live report from the nymex coming up when we come back. as a chef we are always committed to our suppliers...

you know, those farmers, those foragers, those fishermen... for me, it's really about building this extraordinary community. american express is passionate about the same thing. they're one of those partners that i would really rely on whether it's finding new customers, or, a new location for my next restaurant. when we all come together, my restaurants, my partners, and the community amazing things happen. to me, that's the membership effect. i bathed it in miracles. director: [ sighs ] cut! sorry to interrupt. when's the show? well, if we don't find an audience, all we'll ever do is rehearse. maybe you should try every door direct mail. just select the zip codes where you want your message to be seen, print it yourself, or we'll help you find a local partner and you find the customers that matter most. brilliant. clifton, show us overjoyed. no, too much. jennessa. ah! a round of applause. [ applause ] [ male announcer ] go online to reach every home, every address, every time with every door direct mail.

welcome back to welcome back to "power lunch." i'm brian shactman. little one-stop shop for you in terms of data with two and a half hours left in trading weaker dollar heading towards 79 in the dollar index around 2.25% in the 10-year. just saw crude basically flat and gold up $22. we'll have more details on that in just a second. in terms of major indices, well, a percent in the dow, s&p, nasdaq is outperforming about 1.25. and holy name at 15 in the vix. i don't want to be sarcastic

about it, but it's been so low key in the vix as of late. almost half of dow up double digits year-to-date. bank of america of course the best up 78% this year although not one of the better performers today not even up a third of percent. microsoft obviously had its breakout after years of going nowhere. some interesting names touching all-time highs today. credit card processing continues to be a monster. mastercard and visa continue to be two of the best ipos. colgate palmolive reached a new all-time high. a great yield. share appreciation, dividend and yum brands which split from pepsi in '97 also hit an all-time high. also from food with yum, taco bell, pizza hut and the like to gold. there's only so many segues i can do for that, bertha. >> closed out near the highs of

the session for the day. certainly mr. bernanke's comments this morning about remaining accommodative with the fed helping to send the dollar lower and really metals for once the beneficiaries and leading here. gold higher on the day. you also saw the precious metals moved higher. but copper was the standout performance as lme stocks continue to fall. that's london metals exchange. not as big a boost when it came to energy. it's fading here. we're an hour away from the energy close. we'll check out on just where wti closes back then. >> thank you so much, bertha. shares of walgreens ticking higher. up almost 1.5%. they've fallen 14% for the year. drugstore set to report second quarter results before the opening bell tomorrow. is walgreens a healthy investment for your portfolio now? joining us to get ahead of the numbers is andy wolf, senior analyst with bbnt markets. you like the stock at this

point. >> i do. i think it's undervalued. a really good contrarian idea. depends on your trading horizon, but if it's longer than six months, because there is some uncertainty right now and we can get to their pbm express scripts no longer part they might be buying medco. we think the stock is a great longer term investment. >> does the health care before the supreme court act as an overhang to the stock as well, or does that add value to the sock in your opinion? >> that's not an overhang. you know, if that goes through and the supreme court upholds the law, then up to 30 million people who are not currently insured could be added. and they would get most of those would get prescription coverage. that would be great for drugstores. also walgreens and cvs both opening drugstores with clinics. there's a shortage of primary care physicians in our country. and obviously adding 30 million more people would exacerbate

that. that would leverage instore clinics which are run by nurse practitioners and are increasingly viable entities for the drugstores. >> talk to me more about the express scripts situation. they stopped filling for express scripts patients. how do they replace that volume? or do they replace that volume? >> well, they have replaced 15% of it. and the way it gets replaced is clients have of express scripts would choose to do business with another pbm. for example, the state of nebraska did just that. they've been doing business with blue cross in nebraska for a long time. and because express was part of that, they switched to united healthcare, what doesn't have express. and part was to keep walgreens in there. also a large cost savings on the medical side. but also part of the reasoning was to keep walgreens in the pharmacy network.

>> all right. we'll leave it there, andy. thank you very much. >> appreciate it. thank you. >> up next on "power lunch," oil shock. prices marching higher fueling more pain at the pump. so which airlines and truckers are best positioned to ride high oil? we'll name names next. ♪ when your chain of supply goes from here to shanghai, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ chips from here, boards from there track it all through the air, that's logistics. ♪ ♪ clearing customs like that hurry up no time flat that's logistics. ♪ ♪ all new technology ups brings to me, that's logistics. ♪ monarch of marketing analysis. with the ability to improve roi through seo all by cob. and you...rent from national.

because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. i'm going b-i-g. [ male announcer ] good choice business pro. good choice. go national. go like a pro. on december 21st, polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space, which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd and you still need to retire, td ameritrade's investment consultants can help you build a plan that fits your life. we'll even throw in up to $600 when you open a new account or roll over an old 401(k). so who's in control now, mayans?

coming up on "street signs" at the top of the hour, diabetes breakthrough could open a door for the cure. but is the price too high for each and every one of us? plus, credit card stocks on multiyear highs. are some of those profits coming on the backs of broke college students? and the hangover express. could a big train to vegas bring big money into the economy or one big bad bet? now back to sue and tyler on "power lunch." i hope to see you all at 2:00 p.m. top of the hour. >> mandy, thanks very much. more pain at the pump for drivers. the national average of regular rising 11 cents. $3.93 a gallon now.

all day on cnbc we are drilling down, yes, drilling down, on the oil shock from every angle. brian shactman looking at the supply/demand equation. and sharon epperson explains why gas prices aren't lower. brian, you first. >> well, basically, i'm going to show three things right in a row that might not make a little sense. and sharon will make sense of it. >> i'll tell you why. >> she's got the why. i'm going to show you the what. oil production in the u.s. is up. and it's up big time. these are numbers that are the millions of barrels per day. and in fact for the first time since 1949 that's the truman administration, folks, we exported more oil than imported in 2011. as you see whether it's from fracking or offshore fields, there are projections right here for 2020 that the high end would basically have us competing with saudi arabia by that year. look at the same time period, retail gasoline demand has weakened. mastercard spending pulse looked at purchases at 100,000 gas stations and the trend is clear.

we are buying more gas now at 3,241 in millions of barrels compared to 3, 399 back in 2006 which brings us to pricing. ten years ago gas was under $1.50. it was under $1.29 after hitting $4.11 nearly four years ago, we are back on the march to record territory. tyler talked $3.93. aaa has $3.90 right now. we're not even at memorial day. how does that work? how does that work, sharon? production up, demand down, gas prices headed back toward record territory. >> three prices to look at. you have to look at the gasoline futures price and you have to look at where the oil comes from. that's key when you look at rbob versus brent versus wti. we know there's an abundant supply of oil in the u.s. particularly in the middle part of the country. that's effected by the blue line there. refineries can do it more cheaply than along the coast. that's where they have the more expensive brent crude from the

north sea and that of course is that middle line. there's also another factor adding to that high price of gasoline. that's a series of refinery closures in the northeast. and that's put a greater premium on processing the gasoline. closure of two pennsylvania refineries in particular, the sunoco one as well as the conocophilliconoco phil flips. add to that the refinery in st. kroix and that supplies fuel imports to the east coast. fuel operating refineries puts a higher price tag on the gasoline coming from this area. so inland prices are under $3.75 a gallon. we already talked about that's where the cheaper oil comes from. wyoming and colorado, places like that. oklahoma as well. but along the east coast, new york for example, of course we know prices are near or above $4 a gallon. i paid $4.55 a gallon in new york city last night. so now the national average that's $3.90 a gallon. 21 cents shy of the all-time record of $4.11 in july of 2008.

but we know the summer driving season is right around the corner. we also know we could probably top that record. tyler. >> sharon, thanks very much. come out to new jersey to buy your gas. >> i know. >> so with rising fuel costs, which transportation companies are best positioned? do they all get hurt the same amount? or can some blunt the oil shock? covering airlines and on the truckers ben hartford, senior research analyst at robert w. bher. start with you, elaine, on the airlines. you say $110 a barrel on oil is a tipping point, why? >> that's the level airlines can make money with fares at today's level. as you start to move the oil price up, obviously the airlines have to move the fares up, but there's a lag effect. so it takes about four weeks before they can move the price up to cover the higher energy price. so right now they're good to go to about 110 where we think they'll be profitable in the first quarter. >> some airlines have tried to

push through some fare increases. a couple worked, a couple haven't. southwest and jetblue in the past week or so. do you think those fare increases which are in the order of $5 to $10 round trip are going to stick? >> yeah. that's the real question. i think generally speaking the major airlines like delta, united and united they like to raise fares. they can't necessarily do it unless the low fare guys go along with them. so the fact this is a jetblue and southwest led fare increase is really helpful to the cause. obviously at the same time as oil prices move higher, capacity moves lower. so demand for seats is still pretty high. we're flying 80% full. at the same time fares are going up. >> let's go to your buy list which includes delta, united, alaska and copa, which is one i remember you mentioning last time you were here. >> copa is very well-positioned. it's based in panama. right at the cross roads between

north america and south america. they're joining the star alliance. that's a catalyst for shares to move higher in the short-term. they have about 65% of their revenue comes from the business traveler, which is higher yielding than the leisure traveler. they control about 90% of the market share in panama city. they also have an alliance with united continental. >> so they're the ones you like. who's in trouble? i notice that you said united -- u.s. airways does not generally hedge. would that be one that is going to be hurt more? >> yes. absolutely. u.s. airways and alegian. two we're less favorable on. i think we have holds on those now. >> and we know amr is in real trouble. thanks very much. >> thanks for having me. >> let's move to the rails and the truckers. ben rejoins us now. ben, which stocks in the sector are best placed for $100 oil?

i would think that the truckers would not be, but you think that perhaps they still have some pricing power. >> yeah. i think the answer to the question why is on aggregate demand. as long as consumer demand remains reasonably healthy and stable, the truckers, the acid-based truckers and rails and in between can continue to work. they do have pricing power. i think the answer lies in what happens to the consumer into $100 plus crude oil. >> in other words if their demand for other products goes down, then there's no pricing power for those who transport those items. >> absolutely. the transportation space, the domestic space, still very fragmented. so all things being equal higher fuel prices actually help restrict capacity. the remaining providers have pricing power as a result of that. but it will go back to 2008 when crude oil hit close to $150 a barrel. certainly aggregate demand was impacted and the group did not work into those fuel prices. >> the stocks that you like the

best are csx corporation and union pacific. why? >> yeah. so we're still focused on the rails as opposed to the acid-based cyclicals. i think we need more clarity to the impact of fuel prices are to the consumer demand environment at the moment for us to get more aggressive on the acid-based cyclicals, the truckers. on the rail side certainly that group as a whole has underperformed here year-to-date. csx more so than union pacific. and i think there's opportunity in the underperformance for a name like csx. >> you have a buy rating on both of those stocks. on csx price target is $26. is that correct? >> yeah. that's right. >> and on union pacific, $126 price target. i think it's trading at $110 now, about that. >> yeah. about those levels. you're right. we think about those two side by side, certainly beyond high fuel prices coal has been the issue. i think the pullback in csx more recently has provided the opportunity more attractive entry point. >> thank you very much, ben.

>> thank you. >> how are the hedge funds playing rising oil price sns can individual investors use the same strategies? find out on "street signs" at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. before that and up next right here, an epic opening for lionsgates "the hunger games." we'll have the staggering stats on its weekend at the box office. >> plus, going where few men have gone before. legendary hollywood director, james cameron, taking a deep dive literally to the bottom of the earth. we have some incredible pictures to share with you when we come back. when the doctor told me that i could smoke for the first week... i'm like...yeah, ok... little did i know that one week later i wasn't smoking. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these stop taking chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of depression or other mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix.

don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these stop taking chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, tell your doctor if you have new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. it helps to have people around you... they say, you're much bigger than this. and you are. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if chantix is right for you.

welcome back to "power lunch." i'm seema mody. here are a couple of outperformers at the nasdaq. look at e-bay up better than 2%. morgan stanley raising its price target saying paypal can continue to drive gold. switch to biotech. amgen ree leasing upbeat data on phase one cholesterol drug. still in trial reduces cholesterol by 66%. lastly, a small cap with big news here. arena pharmaceuticals is a competitor of vivus concerning the fda advisory panel will review their obesity drug on may 10th. investors piling into that name. >> thanks, seema lionsgate

shares trading up 4.23%. julia boorstin is looking at the blockbuster movie by the numbers for us today. hi, julia. >> "the hunger games" grossed $155 million at the box office this weekend beating expectations and all sorts of records including important ones for lionsgate. already the independent studio highest grossing movie ever. and it's on track to gross about $350 million in the u.s. over the course of its run. with three more movies in the works, it's lionsgate's first ever major franchise. it will be worth as much as $1.5 billion to lionsgate. and the crowds that turned out for "the hunger games" are helping rewrite the rules of hollywood. no longer will big ten pools be saved just for the summer. "the hunger games" notched the highest opening weekend outside the summer movie season.

and it's actually the biggest debut weekend ever for nonsequal behind only "the dark knight" and final "harry potter" film. it speaks to the movie goers female. they were 25 or older and just about 60% of the audience was female compared to about 80% for "twilight." "the hunger games" has helped drive up the box office year-to-date up 22% over last year. tyler, it's certainly a strong start to the year. we could see some record breaking numbers for 2012. and i don't know about you and sue, but i saw the movie on saturday. >> you did? all right. i would love to hear about that off camera because i want to ask you first about "mad men". >> i haven't seen the final numbers, but we have to remember there's a lot of buzz. there's a ton of merchandise related to it.

clothes at banana republic and estee lauder. it's a small show relatively speaking about three million viewers for an average show for premier. we have to get final numbers, but it is a relatively small movie compared to the networks and certainly compared to the kind of audience that turns out for "the hunger games." >> absolutely. julia, thanks. ty, over to you. >> sticking with the theme of movies or related to movies. the oscar winning director, james cameron, is still the king of the world. after completing the world's first solo dive to the deepest known point on earth, nearly seven miles under the pacific ocean southwest of guam in what's known as the marianas trench. he made the decent in two and a half hours and spent a few more hours down there collecting samples and capturing everything on a 3d camera from an area one mile deeper, yes, a mile deeper

than mt. everest is tall and 120 times larger than the grand canyon. even managed to send a tweet when he hit bottom. the microsoft co-founder paul alan following his dive from the comfort of his private helicopter and yacht while eric work on theirs. >> fascinating. coming up just over two hours left in the trading day. charts of the day up next. cannot be contained. [ clang ] the all-new 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back. see your lexus dealer. [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪

and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ protect the land. economically, it seems like a good choice now. we need environmental protection. we've got more than 100 years worth of energy, right here. [announcer:] who's right? they all are. visit powerincooperation.com.

only hertz gives you a carfirmation. hey, this is challenger. i'll be waiting for you in stall 5. it confirms your reservation and the location your car is in, the moment you land. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. ortho weed b gon max. with a new continuous spray wand. so you can kill invading weeds down to the root. without harming your lawn. guaranteed. ortho weed b gon max.

strong strong rally to start the week. the s&p 500 back above the 1,400 level. let's look at chart of the day. i chose the airline index. we were talking about the airlines in light of rising fuel prices. and since the first of the year you can see that they are nevertheless up nearly 17%. that's better than the dow. >> uh-huh. i picked the crb index because we've been talking so much about commodities. that chart is all over the board, which gives you an idea of how volatile the commodities complex has been for the last month. we've had $20 swings in the oil market, in the gas market, in the gold market, you