welcome to the program. head lines from around the globe, spain on strike. public services come to a near halt as workers protest against the conservative government's labor reforms. >> and the summit declaration supports iran's right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy. >> total dismisses concerns about a possible explosion at

its leaking matt form in the north sea as the fall outcould cost as much as $10 billion. >> and investors will be searching for clues on whether consumers are spending more and what they may say about the rest of the year. you're watching "worldwide exchange" with ross westgate and myself. coming up in today's program, plenty of things to chew on. the oil minister argues high energy prices are bad for everyone, but what can be done to bring them down. and the facebook listing. plus jpmorgan's jamie dimon says the u.s. may no longer be at risk of another recession and the housing market is nearing the bottom. do you agree. stay tuned for more.

>> and just to recap the german jobless numbers, adjusted jobless total minus 18,000 according to the labor office and that compares for a consensus of a 10,000 decline. the adjusted job last rate, 6.7%. it was 6.8% in february. so the unadjusted job last total has now fallen to $3 million from there 3.1 in february. and that's just helping the you're low dollar. we had technical highs, so we'll see whether that all-parent number tries to help the euro go higher. we'll keep our eyes on spain. spanish workers are taken to the streets for a 24 hour nationwide strike as unions challenge the fledging conservative government. protests come ahead of the release of this year's budget

which is scheduled for tomorrow. stefane is in madrid following the strike action and the likely impact. is there might go here that will blow the go. off course? >> no, i think they will implement deep labor reform and announce tomorrow the budgets, toughest budget in spain since the country returned to democrat in 1975. but to start wrks i've got for you a little spanish class. [ speaking spanish [ closed for general strike. these stickers have been placed everywhere in madrid. also just around the corner here at the madrid stock exchange, protesters are upset because of the labor reform which is going to make the labor market much more flexible for spanish companies. for instance, they will be authorized to change the working conditions 6 tof the employees. they will be authorized to change the time table, but also

reduce the salaries of the employees about necessary. another point of the reform also, companies will be able to fire people at the lower cost. 45 days for each year spent in the company. and for company which is are facing economic trouble, it will be 20 days of salaries with a maximum of one year. so what will be the consequen s consequences, unions are worry that had because it will be cheaper, companies will fire a lot of people and the unemployment rate which has already at record levels, 23% in spain, nearly 50% for young people, is going to increase further, that means more unemployment, less economy growth, more social spending and the country could fall into a vicious cycle. the government on the other hand says the reform will make the labor market more flexible and should create jobs very shortly.

>> meanwhile we're also looking ahead to the budget. what is going to be the key planning of that? >> so we don't have all the details yet, but what we know is that the government will hoer the public deficit from 8.5% of gdp last year to 5.3% in 2012. it's a huge effort especially if it's still wider than the original arrest get. it means the government will have to curb nominal spending. everything will be lowered. what we are expecting is a 15% reduction of the budget for each military in spain. all the details will be unveiled in the cabinet meeting tomorrow and that the national family next week, but it will be very painful especially for the spanish regents because in the end they're the ones making the

largest expenses in spain, less happen 20% of the public spent is made by the central government, so the reagain which is are in charge of the education, the l system, the transport system, will have to cut everything and this is going to be very difficult for spanish family. today you can feel some people are already disappointed in spain, they feel that he had magic powers to change things very fast, but it won't be the case obviously because it will be extremely difficult for the spanish economies. >> okay. thanks for that. meanwhile the finance minister has criticized a citigroup report that will predict spain will need to restructure saying it's completely out of place. joining us for now, james ferguson, chief strategist at

west house securities. well can to yican welcome to yo. the first question is spain going to get back on track and meet i suppose the fiscal compact target or is this going to slip in 2013 and '14, as well? >> actually we do pot expect the target of 5.3, but we do expect some substantial decline in the deficit, we expect something in the advice mitt of 6% this year, falling down to something around 4.5% next year. so, yes, pot exactly in line with the european rule book, at the same time, spain has a lower ratio and should be given leeway. the problem here is that you have at the same time a very tough deliberating process in the profit sector at the same time when fiscal policy is getting tightened.

in our view what is needed there is to deal with private sector deleveraging, sort out the situation in ht banking industry which is clearly a market concern and then get to the fiscal target. honestly again given the debt situation in spain, it's a price worth paying. >> obviously we just heard that the finance minister has been criticizing the citi report. i wonder whether you have any thoughts about whether at some point spain will need some help or will need to restructure. i mean, can they deliver on the path that they've set themselves out? >> i don't see how you could actually get if to a restructuring when your public debt is last year 68% of gdp. it's not the kind of magnitudes that are normally consistent with the restructuring.

what is possible if things turn sour is that there could be some kind of limited assume for instance to help spain recapitalize its banks, but the restructuring/massive loan program that we've seen in other european countries that i don't think it's on the books. >> are they overly pessimistic or is that realistic? >> it's probably in the lower end and probably what they need to do right now. there was a dent in their credibility last wreer when they released the magnitude of the slippage last year and for this year, the target was based on the growth forecast the that really made no sense and was certainly not credible. so going for something which might in the end prove to be a

tad pessimistic is probably the right way forward. now they need to win the market confidence. >> all right. we'll let you go p. thanks for that. james, how do they beat that? >> we know from the stress test the 10th strongest bank out of 89 banks has already folded. so we know we have a european wide problem with an absence of strong banks. so northern european banks look quite weak but they're in strong countries. and really the catch 22 we have

here, if your banking system starts to contract to try to prepare its balance sheet, that robs the private sector of the 5b89 to grow and create money through credit. and if you have a shrinkage of private sector money supply, if you also pursue an austerity package at the same time for the public sector, hen both sides of your economy are shrinking. and that's recession. >> and no easy way out.then bot of your economy are shrinking. and that's recession. >> and no easy way out. >> no, this is a great opportunity for us to pursue a more political agenda and recommend that this of all times is the right time for the government to step up the borrowing and spending. but we've been doing that for three years now and we're starting to hit these very debt to gdp buffers which means the the additional spending is inefficient and the borrowing runs the risk of turning the bond market against you. yeah, this is the heart of heart

of the section year peks. many of our options have been tried. >> italy's long term growing costs expected to fall. analysts expect yields on the ten year bond to be hoer. secondary market reacted negatively to a sale of zero coupon an enflakes link bonds on tut. >> here in asia, take a look at the boourses. but take a look at the japanese market, down 0.7%. bear in mind this market is set to post its best quarter in more than 20 years. once again shanghai manage ket, banks continue to weigh on the

market. we had of course local government debt being a big drag there not the to mention weak earnings suggesting a slowdown is starting to hurt profitability more than expected. down 1.4%. s can kospi down 0.9%. miners down marginally. and sensex off 0.7%. so not a lot of 079 michl of op today's markets. >> and we're flat on on the stoxx 600 of a per 1% losses yesterday. the ftse 100 this morning just down two points. cac 40 up three. foot city mif down 8. we will focus in on the italian debt auction in around 40 minutes tile. ten year yield we're at 5.5% end

of february. which we expect those yields to drop proceed that. the yields around 4.19%. expectation is that we'll get similar yields this time around. italy has so far issued 66 billion euros worth of debt. three year notes trading at 1.23%. as far as euro-dollar is concerned, a technical area of resistance. the yen shading higher against both the euro and the dollar. we till have end of year rep

repatriation flows. it really depends on what happens with the chinese market. moving away from the highs on tuesday. aussie still under pressure. we keep our eyes on what's going on with the natural gas and oil market. fall in natural gas has been a ben if i recall for the u.s. economy during the winter months. brent back down. we did see a reaction in the biggest weekly build since july 2010 yesterday help to go take oil prices lower. nymex below 106 as you can see. staying with the oil story, total has rejected suggestions take there is the risk of an explosion on its gas platform in the north sea. a flame has been burning as a safety measure to prevent get gas pressure from building up. but experts suggest a change in weather conditions could cause the flame to ignite gas laeking from the platform.

the company's assured that operations it will slow down. fitch is talking a range of 4le billion. so a lot of scenario planning. merd, no one really knows. stay tuned because in around 50 minutes, we'll speak to an oil and gas analyst who says although the leak is bad, could be worse and we'll also speak to environmental ngo which warns the gas leak is still out of control. >> coming up next, now the leaders of bric nations warning the west that ultra loose monetary policy is hurting growth in their countries. we're live for the very latest.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." bric says loose monetary policy could hurt their economy. let's go live to new delhi. >> to start with, this is not a

concern just brought up, this has been a long tapping concern. emerging economies like china and india did express their concerns about quantitative easing and the impact of the loose monetary policy on inflation and emerging economies. this is a grouping of countries that has pretty much been resilient through the global economic down turn. they have been affected, but not as much. very committed effort to support the imf will in its efforts to support the eu. this was a commitment made by every single country here, but they are not satisfied. russian president said the bric expressed dissatisfaction over the speed of economic and political reform. so that eat tone with regard to the reforms of the international mop taker fund or even things like the u.s. trying to impose sanctions or threatening on

countries like china and i said i can't over iranian crude. all countries supporting the position that they will not be dictated to by the u.s. when it comes to engaging with iran on economic matters. so the mood cautiously optimistic, but they want to focus more on the domestic economy. battling with high enrates and slow town oig as far as their individual economies are concerned, but remain committed to working together as a bric grouping. >> it's interesting, can you tell us the outcome of the delhi agreement? >> right. a lot of it is really a continuation of what was discussed at the summit in china last year. so for instance, two agreements have indeed been signed. here is part of the delhi declaration. one is a pact on credit facility in local currency and the other is a multilateral letter of credit confirmation pact. these two agreements have been

signed and our understanding is that this will reduce transaction costs and facilitate trade developments. so this is something that's already been done. the bric development bank that everybody's been talking about, all countries are said to be committed to that bank. it will be on the line of the abb, for instance. and they've talked about how they will put together a working group to examine the feez 57b89 feez and of the development bank and the finance companies will meet next year. so crucial movement as far as the development bank is concerned and two key agreements being signed to enhance development. even, even though these are the fastest growing economies, trade has been a big disappoint. so the effort really has been how to get countries like russia and china to engage who are bilaterally and as a multilateral groups, as well. so the effort really on

enhancing trade between the brics nations themselves. >> interesting discussion. i wish i was there. thank you very much for the good job. i want to break earnings news coming out from petro china. revenue coming in at 20 # 1,1, popt 004 trillion chinese yuan. output up 4.7% year on year. 2011 crude oil up 3.3% year on year. now, this is interesting. net profit for q4 was 29.55 billion yuan. if the nufull year, analysts we expecting 2011 to come in at 1.358 billion yen. so a little bit less than expected. eps 0.73 yuan.

so that is some of the things coming out as we look at petro dhi in a earnings right now, so far we have a lot of people focusing on this of course, watching to see whether the slowdown in china is hurting profitability. let's get to our guest host for some reaction. james, we've been talking about brics this general and how they've been criticizing developed nations for their loose monetary policy and saying how that is impacting growth in their own countries. do you think there is merit in that argument? >> there is merit in that argument, but only on the condition that you sort of take to the first step. you take to the second step, you have to bear in mind one of the reasons why, for example, quantitative easing in the u.s. hurts china is because they insist pegging their currency to the dollar. so they've been disingenuous,

let's put it that way. >> we're focusing on big bank earnings and what we've seen has been a mix willmixed picture. >> that's right, we're on the lookout for fresh earnings from bank of china as well as icbc, the world's largest bank by value. those could come any time now. but let's and he see what we've seen so far. starting with bank of communications, that is china's largest lender. came out with better than expected 30% jump in quarterly profit, but sharesless more than 0.8% on banking warning of a slow chinese economy that could set loan demand. bank shares rose slightly on a 40% increase in am net profit to $5.7 billion in 2011 and that's thanks to rapid growth in its

net margin. looking to fuel growth by bringing in more capital. the natural development of reform commission says china has laid out $24 billion in long term foreign death quotas to six foreign banks, jpmorgan as well as citigroup, beijing clearly looking to reverse recent declining foreign investment figures. >> thank you very much for that. i think your phone is chuming away. you're much needed there. ross. important people trying to get a hold of us. and i don't blame them either. james, just picking up on this, that last pick of what tracy was talking about, in china wanting to look to foreign banks to fuel growth by bringing more capital. and that's the reverse of sort of what the mood music has been. are foreign banks going to want

to do that? >> a large number of foreign banks, particularly the ones that tend to operate internationally, because the american banks operate very much locally. most if not all of the international nonu.s. based dollar denominated banking that goes on in the world is done by nonu.s. banks. and it's predominantly done by european banks. >> they've all been putting money back as part of the deleveraging process. >> not only that, but when banks start to deleverage, there are incentives to deleverage aggressively an prood. first, they tend to be the less profitable markets because you also have advantages in being in your domestic market, but you lose once you start playing around the margins. secondly the variance of those profits tends to being quite high. so you not only make less money, you make it more risky. and thirdly, if you're contracting asset, you are doing that because thing wills might turn out badly and then therefore you might need some

taxpayer support. and if you do, it's a necessary tick o gl domestic one. so three incentives. only the american banks are in the business of expanding overseas assets. they are starting to increase lending, finally looking like they're coming out of their banking crisis and the world is their otherwise sistyster. >> okay. plenty more to come. chris even. coming up, the bank of england due to release a slew of data. we'll break the figures down for you.

public services comes to a near halt in spain as workers proceedest against the labor reforms one day before the unveiling of the budget.

>> number of job seekers falls more than expected in determine if i in march. >> and in uts, investors will be searching for clues in today's gdp report on whether consumers are spending more and what that could mean for the the rest of the year. >> that german jobless rate, that's a post reunification low rather than an all-time record low for germany. 1 pmt 8 billion in january. slightly weaker than forecast. big drop off from february's

57,000. so nearly 9,000 less. the february consumer credit was 0.4 billion. it was forecast at 0.2. so pretty low number all the same. contracting 0.1% on the month. let's get a quick reaction from jim ferguson on the data. still not a lot of demand. >> mortgage approval is a mortgage that's been approved. so although the banks are very keen and insistent on the fact that this shows there's a lack of demand in the economy, one has to be aware of what the banks mean when they say lack of demand, they mean for each category and specification of

pore rowing, there's been a drop in demand. but the reason for that is the banks have sacked people from categories. pre-crisis, if you were sme, you rated credit over the phone. how they have a massive checklist, huge hur gdles to ge over. if you get turned down, you might find your existing credit lines start to get worse conditions. i think once you bear in mind that after the banking crisis is the only time we tend to see a credit and it's because they're paying the balance 1450e9s. demand is a key, but not the primary demand. >> a flame has been burning near the source of a gas laek as a safety measure to prevent excess gas pressure from building up,

but a change in weather conditions could cause the flame to ignite gas laeking from the lat form. it could cost total up to $10 billion. but about fitch puts a figure on it around $4 billion. so widely differing estimates. thanks very much for joining us. huge differences there in the estimates. why such big variables? >> i guess it all depends on timing really. the whole thing that happened was on sunday, so only five days into the situation. so it's quite varied. >> as far as you're concerned, what is the critical thing here in this story and the shareholders? >> it depends on how quick it

can go. because at the month, the gas is still leaking and the quicker they do it, the better for them. we're just going into summer where the gas prices will not be as high. you're talking about a relief well which will take about six months to actually complete. if that can be done as quick as possible, that will definitely help the share price. but at the moment, it's not looking that good. >> how you can drill a relief well if you're basically evacuating the area? >> absolutely. it is something that has to be done because at the moment, they've not identified a source of the gas laek. option one is to hope that the gas does mally. option two is to krill the

relief platform which has already been mobile hized. and third apgs is option is to l the well. >> so they have the relief rig ready to go. do they have the relief team up to the job ready to go? >> they've actually gotten the staff from across the world to actually help. so at the moment, it's still earl days. the next few days will tell. >> are they likely to ask other oil companies to step in and help or is that a sign that it really is out of their roll? >> it's difficult to say. if you look at surrounding areas, shell is involved. chevron has one platform. and total the othether platformd rigs around. if the problem persists, then it's something that could happen. >> christine has a question.

>> does this incident pair abea similarities to the deepwater horizon? >> they're very different. deep water was subsurface and it was oil. the total case is gas leak and at the surface. it makes it easier to actually extinguish. we know that the gas has a lot of h 2 s, hydrogen sul filed. if this keeps going on and the gas cannot be capped or killed, then we could be looking at something dollar to bp. but at the moment, it's early days. >> so what is the environmental impact for us? >> at the moment, there's a cloud of gas and also oil on the surface of the sea. initial investment has said they did not need any disbursement, which means there are not environmental risk, but the more

this keeps going and if there's spreading out, it could be something much bigger. >> is the money being recycled back into other oil stocks and if so, what would it be some who benefits from total's loss. >> other oil and gas companies. total is a huge firm. what's happening is big news. and they have assets in other parts of the world. so the sooner they can cap this gas leak -- >> we had the chancellor last year putting that super tax on which backfired spectacularly. what does it mean for the gas in the north sea area? >> i seat uk budget was

announced and it made everyone sit up and say it -- >> because they repealed. >> exactly. there's been a lot of tax breaks on on small fields. it's bad news for industry as a whole, but if you actually look at the bigger picture, this is something that it was going to happen because there's a lot of talk on deep water drilling. so it's a case of, okay, make corrections and see what happens next. >> okay. thanks. later in the show, we'll speak to environmental ngo which has warned that the gas leak is out of control. commerce bank says it sees solid

operating profit in 2012. patricia has more of the details. >> and 2013 should be looking even better than 2012. that of course depending that ll be continued stability in the market conditions. so at the moment trading flat ahead of this announcement. bucking the trend of the overall market and also being right now the second biggest gain. apart from that, we had earl why on very good news coming again from the german labor market. down about 18,000. and that just shows you that at the moment, the labor market does not seem to be touched by the soft patch we saw in german gdp from the fourth quarter 2011. bodes very well indeed going into 2012 about. so some of these labor statistic offices have their own targets

expecting about 2.84 million. and we've reached these targets already and that just shows you that this is on the back of good weather in march, but that our leading indicators are telling a true story. unemployed numbers, we may see a little bet less in the numbers, but that is to be expected. if 2012 should continue the way it does, it should also bode well for retail sales due out tomorrow. >> absolutely. patricia, thanks for that. christine. >> markets are heading south on concerns of the economy weighing on sentiment. but we're approaching the end of the quarter, so we're seeing investors trim their positions ahead of that quarter. nikkei 225 down 0.7%. bear in mind this market posting nice gains for the quarter, best

in more than 20 years. some consolidation in the japanese market. weakness in earnings suggesting maybe the slowdown in china is starting to impact profitability of companies more than expected. down 1.4%. weighted especially deks is the biggest loser. there was a rumor that maybe the government might reimpose a capital gains tax and that is spooking investors. down 2.1%. kospi up 2.1%. send 60s off 0.9%. so not a lot of optimism in today's markets. >> and we've just taken a leg down here will europe. we were nat when we looked half an hour or so ago go. now we have losses of tearily

half a percent. cac 40 down 0.2%. we keep our eyes on the next half hour of italy as we get results of the bond auctions coming lieu. remember, we're auctioning up to 8.25 debt. ten year expect to yields to come below the 5.5%. those are the key metrics that we'll focus on. christine, back to you. >> well, japan's government has okayed a temporary budget, something it hasn't done about this 14 years. it came after opposition parties failed to agree on a pull scale budget. this is a rather unusual measure. >> heart, the move reflects protests from opposition parties against prime minister's fiscal policy including planned sales

tax hikes start manage 2014. the stop gap totaling 3.6 trillion yen is equivalent to 4% of the full scale budget which is just enough to cover the first six days of april. the opposition has agreed to back it as an exception and will likely pass both chambers on friday. the blocking of the main budget will not have a long term impact, because it's certain to be enacted by april 6, however the emergency measure is another reminder that noda's economic policies could go nor without help from the upper house. back to you. >> thank you very much for that. well, on to another topic. focusing on bric nations flexing their muscle, once again criticizing loose western monetary policies. in their joint statement, the bric says growth prospects may be hurt by volatile capital flows and fluctuating commodity

prices. joining us, steven ohannon. good to have you with us. is there anything coming up from the bric summit that you're grasping on to as an investor? >> not really in terms of a very quick result. i think it's the long term play that's so important for the brics. certainly of how they interact with the rest of the global economy. they're talking now very importantly about western pl cities, western monetary policy in lawyer. we're just having a very big negative effect on the brics in terms of inflation, oil prices. they need to convince the western politicians and the central bankers that it is not in their long term interests to keep putting inflation problems towards the brics. so a major issue right now and they need to get the message across to the western politicians and central bankers. >> obviously growth is a key

concern. from the companies that you look at, is there anything that suts to you that growth is slowing down in india? >> there's a huge commodity inflation that we've seen globally. and that is going to be a big issue for them going forward in terms of being able to drop interest rates to get the investment story going. there owe obviously a side issue locally in india between the fiscal policy and monetary policy, where fiscal policy is being too loose and has forced the central bank to actually also keep rates high. so a big battle going on within india about getting new in-est haven't and getting the right policy mix together. they he can sort fiscal policy out themselves. the one issue they can't sort out is another roind of qe from western politicians which might force oil prices everybody higher. in brent terms, it's hitting

all-time highs. that is a real issue for them right now. >> they talk in that statement about volatility and commodity prices really hammering help. but we have to remember they have big subsidized energy prices, as well. how expense ive is it for them? >> very. those subsidies that have doubled in gdp terms since 2007. india's latest budget has indicated they'll also reduce the subsidies. by reducing the subsidiesubsidi will create obviously higher prices locally. >> clearly on that side, if the u.s. dollar can strengthen and maybe if natural gas increases in the united states and dollar stabilizes, it will have all these guys out. i just wonder, because you invest directly in india. a lot of investors would

leverage indian growth through external investment, buying companies that sell goods. but if you invest direct in india, how are you doing that, where do you focus. >> at the moment it is around the government debt. there is a corporate market, but very small. a few good name has we all know. but the real focus for us is around the indian government market which are getting very attractive yield. the reason i say it's attractive -- >> what are the risks? >> the risks is the point. as we've seen in the rest of the world, they bank down on inflation. and that's a major issue about investing in fixed income. in the face by the way of very low growth numbers, the last was very poor, but they'll fight

inflation first and grow second. we're talking about qe three in the u.s. inflation expectations are way above the fed's target, so you kind of have to question the long term investments potential. the issue is do you want to buy into a central bank who will give you security over your long term investment or a bank that has other issues. >> what indian government is wrestling with is they're trying to take inflation out of their economy, but something like 50% or so of theactu actually food and energy. they act like a deflationary drag. so how long will they have to continue with the high interest rate policy before the rest of

the pressures have been eased off? >> we don't think it will be too long. we think oil has stabilized. what they can affect has been fiscal side. they have been fiscally loose since 2008, as everyone in the world has been. so they need to sort out the fiscal issues. and the fight right now in india is around the central bank having a full on fight with the minister of finance and this says, look, the policy mix is wrong. you get transfer payments from the rural areas down, that will bring down real inflation and then we can bring down the monetary base and tightness. obviously increase monetary base. what's happening is politically it's very difficult. very bad local elections. they need to get the support for popularity issues. >> whether politics at some

point change the focus back to growth. good to have you on today. please come back. we'll take a short break. still to come, it only takes a dollar and a dream. tomorrow one lucky person or group of persons will win the mega millions jackpot. it's only worth half a billion dollars.

news corp has responded to privacy allegations calling them unfair in basis. they want to apologize for claims made that a subsidiary ran an operation to sabotage rivals. rupert murdoch is angry. >> he is. and he's planning to hit back hard against the allegations. he's talking about lies and libels from his competitors this

is interesting to see what happens next and if he talks about lies and libels, the next is to sue if he doesn't get the apologize that news corp is looking for. >> it will be interesting if he does a legal action. how real do we take the lets? >> we'll just have to see. the murder date of births have already taken a lot of rather expensive lawyers and n. recent months, so i have no doubt that that's a question that they will be asking. but of course nts has already been accused of similar thingses in court a number of types with i think only one case being ruled against help. so they're probably fairly confident that they can defend their actions in this case.

>> is this still a pressure mark about the future leadership of the company? >> i think one of the ways that they have tackled the crisis well, quite early on he said if something were to happen to him tomorrow, the person that would take over is the person that has made the official statement from news corp today, which is reassured the stock market quite a lot. he's very much a part of the tv business.

here in theist, investors will be searching for clues in today's ghchlt dp report on whether consumers are spending more and what that could mean for the rest of the year. >> in spain workers row test against the labor reforms. >> bric nations call for stronger voting rights to bolster the ability to ramp up global lending.

>> we're going the latest out of the oecd this morning. they say the first after 2012 shows growth decoupling. investors have been betting anyway and saying the growth prospects are firm in the u.s. and a rebound is seen in japan thp they thousand expect the u.s. to expand 2.9% in the first quarter, 2.8% in the second. spain won't need emergency help for international lenders. they say the uk economy will enter recession, german economy will grow, eithertalian economy will contract in both qe and 2 and french economy will contract in the first quarter, as well, and expand in the second. that call on the uk is a big one

because i think the consensus suggests the uk will avoid an official recession. we'll get thoughts on that in a moment from our guest. and also just remind you where we stand, ftse 100 down nearly half a percent after percentage losses yesterday. ibex is up. we're waiting for debt auction results from italy. let's bring in dave. hang you for joining us. just pick up on the oecd forecasts. they're pretty bullish. they talk about a clear decoupling. >> consistent theme has been asia, europe and even australia,

they're in the slowdown phase. japan, china, the whole group is under pressure. the question is when you dig behind some of those numbers, what do you find. some of the seasonal adjustments have helped in the first quarter and as we move in to the third, fourth quarter, we'll find seasonal adjustments get factored out. and in fact the general consensus is growth may turn around. >> that would be must have to sustain stock markets at these current levels. >> certainly feeds the hope. >> you're calling it a hope? >> i think the issue with inflation is a real one. and it's something that in the can tee naturer was not factored into gdp adequately. so when you're looking at the gdp figures, you he said up with

an overstated gdp figure when you're understating deflation. so that component is very critical. you're looking at one of the most politicized mums on the planet. gdp is critical to the economy. so i would actually say there's reason to be suspect. >> good to have you on. you're with us up the end of the program. what are the futures saying, jackie? >> good morning. yeah, we're hooking at the global market. some of that pressure impacting the futures here this morning. we have turned south at the moment. if the markets were to open now, the dow would be lower by 8, nasdaq slightly higher and s&p 500 slightly lower. stocks eased off their worst levels yesterday, but still finished lower on the day.

energy stocks leading the way lower. some of the fears about weakness oversees after the durable goods orders rose less than expected here in the states. but despite that pull back, i want to highlight the fact that stocks are still poised to lock their best quarterly gain in almost 14 years. >> spanish workers have taken to the streets. >> stefane is in madrid and joins us for plenty more. i suppose one has to ask what is the real impact going to be apart there sort of the one day loss of work. >> there there are some disruptions this morning. for instance, flights in spain, civil disruptions in hospitals and school, but is it worth it. obviously the government will not change it plan. the government have already made clear that they will not change

its plan on the labor reform and also we are expecting it will be the toughest budget since the country returned to democracy in 1975. the strike is mostly focused on the labor market and this reform that the government wants to implement. the government has promised a deep change in the labor market. for instance, the companies will be able to change the working conditions, not only the time table of the employees, but also they will be authorized to reduce hair salaries if necessary. also the cost of firing people will be lower. so far it was 45 days of salary for each year worked in the country. could be as low as 20 days per year with a maximum of one year compensation. that's the new deal. and that's basically why the unions have decided to take to the street. they are accusing the government of breaking everything. this is the flyer you can find

almost everywhere this morning. reform will make the labor market more flexible. most likely consequence on the short term will be the increasing rates of unemployment in spain. it's currently at 23% of the population. it's the highest level in europe. the unemployment rate for young people is close to 50%. of course the cost of firing will be lower. companies are likely to reduce the number of staff in the future and we can expect from that the unemployment rate to increase very sharply. we are expecting the average budget for each minute have i in spain to be reduced by 15%. the target is to bring back the level of public deficit there 8.5% of gdp last year to 5.3% of gdp in 2012. means that the government will have to implement some nominal

cuts of away 35 bell i don't know euros. we are expecting some massive cuts and spanish people have realized that the new prime minister doesn't have magic power and the next month, perhaps the next year, will be extremely difficult for spanish people. >> what's your own view as we watch the lack of growth in the peripheral because we have cut backs going on. how does it feedback to potentially investors later on in the year? >> the step sequence are from being a financial crisis where you have specific financial institutions to now a broader economic crisis, transitions i think as we look to 2012, 2013, 2014 are political and geopolitical nature.

so where you begin to see a negative feedback loop is politicians make choices or policies that which end up having a negative impact in terms of those growth figures and austerity is certainly one of those things where it is the fiscal way of tightening belts an getting back to ultimately a growth trend. >> has the ltro divorced for now the banking crisis from sovereign crisis, will that continue to be the case? >> to shall degree you have three years of a pre-pass. it doesn't mean we're fixing the economy, but it does mean there's less pressure on those specific financial institutions but you look at spain, youth unemployment of over 50%. that spells political uncertainty or political destabilization. >> all right. stick around. more on come from you. >> coming up next on the show from our end, we'll take a look at the environmental impact of

total's gas leak in the north sea. 

total has rejected suggestions that that's a risk of explosion on its gas plath

form in the north sea. a flame has been burning to prevent excess gas pressure from building up, but they suggest a change in weather conditions would cause a flame to ignite. the company's assured that operations on the platform have already been shut down. and could cost up to 10 billion. wild varience in those estimates. joining us is frederick hawk. thanks for joining us. you think right now the gas leak is out of control. if i have yours reasons for that. >> a leak that comes up under a flat form is out of control, but there is one good case scenario, one bad case scenario and one worst case scenario and we have

to look at the information that we get over time to look at what kand kind of consequences that accident could have. >> what's the worst case scenario and what's your best case? >> to start with the best case, we've just got in some information that support that we have the leakage through the in-are and outer casing. if will this is leaking from the reservoir -- it could indicate that this is a pocket gas above the reservoir that is leaking carried up lieu. >> frederick, hi, is this christine. should we be comparing this

incident to the deepwater horizon and what's the environmental impact here? >> will is similarities when it comes to -- i would describe them as the rail from hell when it comes to drilling. this is a kind of extreme sport the oil industry is doing. and we're very concerned if you have a large -- should be possible to get under control, but remains to see. >> it seems like there's a lot of tough choices for the company to make ahead as it decides how it's going to cope with this. layout for me a worst case scenario of what we could see

happen. >> if it's a gas leak and we get outside the casing in the well, the problem is that you have to use several months and we are sure we won't get any long period with no wind. so this is a situation where the oil doesn't have -- [ inaudible ] cho call several times and we see how critical such tens in that kind of pressure and temperature is. >> okay. thank you so much for fled rick

meantime saudi arabia's saudi minister as dismissed fears of an oil shortage as irrational. talk of a shortfall has no basis in rely reality and the world's largest oil producer stands ready to increase supply if it necessary, but that fundamentally the markets remain balanced. let's bring david back in. >> we've seen a little bit of an easing in the prices and the last couple of days. but still the price is very high. so when you hear the comments from the saudi oil minister saying we can meet the supply shortfall about will is one, what's the worry in the market, is really just being driven by speculation? >> i think the larger issue is you do have about a $15 fear premium with uncertainty relating to iran. if you're looking at supply and demand dimensions, could you argue for significantly lower oil. even $60 or $80 a barrel.

so that has not made sense about if you go back and look at the supply pig ifs for the last three or four months. we've continued to see an increase in available oil and it just doesn't mix well with current pricing. >> fair enough. thank you so much, david. >> yield set at 4.about 18%. pretty much as we thought, it was 4.19 a month ago. this is a key one. 3.25 billion, that's the ten year. the yield 5.24. so as expected, it has come below the 5.5% which we got at this auction -- this maturity back at the end of pen.

effectively a bond linked to the yield on that 4.6%. so they have sold as well the maximum planned 5.about 75 billion in ptps. so i would say this auction is pretty much as we expected. what i haven't got yet is what the bid to covers were on those. but the point is that the yield on the ten year has come down below 5 1/2% and on the five year, pretty much stayed where we were. and that was the expectation going to the auction. we'll wait to see, but they sold the maximum out. >> time for the global markets report. let's start in the united states. take a look at the futures, see how we're setting up for trade on wall street. does look like the dow could open lower by 18, nasdaq by 1 and change and the s&p 500 by

about 1 1/2. seeing the pressure from the global markets strek litrek lin. materials and energy leading the way lower. financials in terms of sector was the only sector that finished higher. stocks still posed to post their best quarterly gain in almost 16 years. so still seeing a strong quarter here in the united states. >> just hit a session low ahead of the u.s. hope. maybe markets need better than expected news. but after 1% losses yesterday, advances 8:2. at the moment 4:1.

just remind you if you've just tuned in, eitherly sold the maximum amount that they were looking for. yield on the ten year did come down to 5.24%. it was 5.55 in a similar maturity auction in the end of pen. the five year nudged down from 5.1% fairly steady to where we were before the auction. a little bet higher in fact h and m stock under pressure. currently down around 5%. profits today came in a little bit weaker than we might have thought. blaming higher costs for that and discounts eat manage to the

profit. christine, what's happened as far as asia markets are concerned? >> asian markets slipping today, concerns about a global economy nikkei 225 down 0.7%, but this particular market having a nice run for this quarter. best quarterly gains in more than 20 years. banks down 1.4% on the china market. slowdown over in the mainland weighing on the hang seng. there were worries the government might actually repost a capital gains tax and that's spooking investors in this particular market. kospi down 0.9%. oil prices weighing on resources. and the accept sex trading to the down side 0.6%. so not a lot of optimism in today's markets here in asia. but coming up on "worldwide exchange," we will continue to

look at bric warning the west that ultra loose monetary policy is hurting growth in their countries.

recap italian auction results. five and ten year money. pretty much gone as expected. feef year yield 4.18%.

bid to cover, 1.65. bid to cover for the ten year, up 1.65. yield came down as expected. and they raised the money they wanted. so nerms of the strength metrics, this was as expected. but i think we're in a situation where the market is probably looking to get any relief from that many more than what we were expecting. we want to get a reaction from you. we've seen a big dropoff in

yields and this suggests profit taking now but what he your own view of the value now? >> as you said, the five and ten year is where we're seeing the funding today. and that pressure relieved from the lee year is what really is taking away the concerns that people have had about roll over risk and that was the critical issue in anything less than 36 months. it has created a sense of calm bringing the yields from over 7% now just over 5%. which is helpful. >> all right. we'll puf off of that and talk more about the brics. or let's take a break instead? what do we have coming up? in plenty of things coming up. jaem any dimon very optimistic about the u.s. economy. we'll ask our next guest if he agrees with the jpmorgan ceo.

welcome to the show. headlines today, here in the united states, investors will be searching for clues in today's gdp report on when consumers are spending more and what that could mean for the rest of the year. >> spain on strike. public services come to a near halt as workers protest against

the conservative government's maybe reforms one day before madrid unveils its 2012 budget. >> bric nations call on bolstering the fund's ability to ramp up global lending. >> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's take a look at the look a lower open. this is after stocks didn't have a great day yesterday. we did close lower, although came off the worst levels for the session. financials the only s&p sector in the green. a 71 point loss on the dow. but still shaping up to be a pretty good quarter.

>> european stocks are now at the low point of the session. remember we had percent losses yesterday. italian auction this morning has gone pretty much as sxenktsed. maybe people might have wanted something more than what they were expecting. >> emerging markets saying loose monetary policies run the risk of creating imbalances in the global economy. heads of state say they want reforms to ensure stronger voting rights. let's go arrive to new delhi. >> thanks very much. yes, indeed, this has been a long standing demand of the greek's nation better

representation they want better voting rights. but it seems unlikely that we'll see any headwind. but the bric countries say they are committing to aiding the efforts to support the european recovery. two important agreements have been seened, one on credit facility and local currency and the other on confirmation of credit pact. both to reduce transaction costs as well as to facilitate trade development. an important fact that has hot been signed is the one to do with the south side bank offer the development bank, but they there said they'll come back with their ideas in the feasibility study of putting the bric development bank at the next summit. so that's the headline from here in new delhi. >> thank you very much for that. and that's it for me, guys.

i'll be back tomorrow with news moving markets in asia. >> thanks, christine. meantime, jpmorgan jamie dimon says the u.s. housing market are close to a bottom. he says the threat of a double dip recession has faded. >> it's broad based, consumers is in better shape. >> and that was jamie dimon, ceo jpmorgan. scott richter is an equity portfolio manager he westfield group and he's here to talk more about some strategy with us. you heard the comments from jamie dimon yesterday. do you agree with his take? >> yes, i do. i think jamie has right idea. what's did different in the current situation is we have both easy monetary policy and

the threat of inflation is much less when you think back to 2011, what we had was easy monetary policy and most of the emerging monetary policies hitting the brakes trying to beat the inflation process. so i think it is broad based here in the u.s. housing looks like it's bottoming. as you pointed out, the consumer looks a little bit better. consumer confidence is up. so i think we're starting to get traction. >> so given what we're seeing in terms of equity markets, some of the slow an steady grind upward, how do you trade it in terms of your portfolio? >> let me take a longer term view. we think equities will outperform fixed income and cash. we think there's principal risk with rising rates to the fixed income market and cash really isn't paying anything. in the short term, we think the

market has run hard and fast since september 30th. and what we would recommend is taking advantage of the volatility. make take money off the table in those groups that are extended. inevitably with this global slowdown over the next quarter or two, we might see the market give back. and at that point in time have your shopping list ready and be ready to buy high quality dividend paying stocks that will help the portfolio make it through that period. >> i think an is you that should be addressed with jamie's statement is this broad based recovery lawyerly recognizable in the banking space. the banker is taking care of. the baker on the other hand is still dealing with rising commodity price which is are difficult.

their problem with these loose monetary policies is that in the developing world, has an acute sense of pain for the average man and one on the street. so for the banker, it plays well, but for the baker, it's a little different. >> and while the oecd is talking about good growth in the first and second concerns, he's concerned about what happens later in the year. what's your own view whether we get enough sustainable growth to support current prices? >> well, i do think the emerging market data coming out of china is slowing. you've talked about india slowing. so i do think that is manifesting itself. i think the flip side is that in the u.s., we've built quite a bit of momentum. if that momentum continues to

get traction, if we take a momentary pause for a couple of quarter, we'll have the momentum going forward to take us into 2013. to the extent that rates tighten up, the dollar tightens up, we do scould see relief on the commodity side, as well. >> okay. let's take a look at other stories this morning. facebook is inching closer to its ipo, reports saying it's halted trading on the secondary market. targeting may for the ipo. that's in the hands of the sec. and a trio of companies set to go public today. $13 a share. high end of the expected range. industrial parks maker priced its offering at $18 a share. and we saw cafe press which lets people create t-shirt, coffee mugs and other items pricing its

ipo at $19 a share. that was above the expected range, as well. annies shares jumped the best first day of an ipo since linkedin. scott, in terms of the ipo activity we're seeing, reminding us of the 90s. what's your take? >> i think ipos and m and a activity have been quite dormant for a while. it's just in the last six, eight weeks that they're really starting to pop. i think it's indicative of risk on type of market. they do have special nitches so that they are attractive, but i think it's a story that still has to play out and i think managements will be much more confident as we see the economic

expansion broad en when there's too much uncertainty, they just won't bring them to market. >> what do you make more of the macro in terms of the u.s., some of the weaker data points we've seen and some of the stronger corporate earnings that we've seen, as well? on the corporate side, it seems continuing things are picking up. >> we look out several years actually. a five year type horizon. and what we do is we look at the expected returns between cash, fixed income, between alternatives. and as we look out and think about the economic conditions in an improving way, we learn toward alternative investments. so we try to take it down to a micro level and look at high quality companies and shying

away from the treasury market, looking at high grade corporates, looking at municipal bonds, for example, in the seven to ten year range, general obligation and revenue related bonds. and alternative investments, as well. >> scott talked about doesn't like fixed income. a lot of people got burnt the last two years. so how do we know -- you think the economy will weaken again at the end of this year. how do we know that you won't get burnt again this year being short on fixed income? >> that's a tough call because fixed income has, arrange cycle, shortest has been 2 two years, longest 38, and the average right around 30 to 32 years. rates have been coming down no about 30 years now. so you can't say that we've

passed that point. we may be on the cusp of it, but to call the date has been very painful. so it goes without saying that we'll see major changes in the structure of interest rates over the next three to five years. >> okay. hold those thoughts. jackie. >> exactly. coming up next on the show, congress has held several hearings in to mf global's collapse and the missing customer money, but lawmakers are still left with many more questions than answers. we'll look at the legal side of the case.

the case. did you give assurances that that money was not their money interest. >> on the advice of counsel, i respectfully decline to answer based on my constitutional right. >> that was edith o'brien, mf global assistant treasury who invoked her fifth amendment rights at a hearing yesterday.

joining us to talk more about ma global is richard roth. let's start with some of testimony that we've been hearing. it seems new developments continue to trickle out. first we didn't know the customer funds were being used. now it appears that they did in fact know inthat that was the case. so as more continues to develop, as you mentioned during the break, will we nail someone? >> i don't know. that's the big question. we are learning a lot. the bottom line is that there are people that did know things. for example, edith o'brien by taking the fifth had to have known things so probably trying to get a deal with the department of justice, at which time she'll be able to speak.

but we had a woman who was on vacation who said something is wrong. she was the cfo of mf global north america. and the big question is how far will it go. >> so will is some indication via e-mail exchange that jon corzine did know or did authorize a transaction not necessarily indicating how much he knew that was happening in those final day, but what are the every implications for mr. corzine as we move forward? >> they could be very serious. no one being indicted, no one being convicted, but the bottom lean is if miss o'brien does essentially work at the level of the department of justice, no longer takes the fifth, gets immunity and tells everyone what happened, and if we learn that mr. corzine was actively involved in the transferring of the customer funds, $1.6 billion

was missing, mr. corzine may have a tough day. he is essentially the big wheel in this. >> i'm wondering what's happened to counterparties now. are they getting their money back that's been lock up for months or not? >> it's interesting. no one knows yet if they're getting their money back. what is interesting is that there's a secondary market. there are claims for up to 80% a dollar. so there is a resumption that the money will be paid back if not in full, a substantial part of it. all 24though we didn't know yet because it was missing in a matter of four days. but there are people out there who believe that a good chunk of it that money will be paid back. >> and it was based on a call

that jon corzine made about peripheral debt which actually proved to be right except he was just way too early and he bet the farm. his political analysis was actually right. he said the europeans will do what is right and european debt yields will come down. he just made at the wrong time. >> and the major problem is that you've got somebody in the ceo position who is a rm foformer tg and he's treating the company capital as if he's a raid book and running a p and lc& l, and s dangerous to say the least when you look at other organizations that have done the same thing. the argument i think holds and this will be a case that is a test case to say should banks have prop trading desks as a part of that aeir core function should they be split off.

>> and i'll pose that to you, richard. the bigger issue of course is regulation. what does mf global tell us really about the broader issues here and how can we work to resolve some of them through regulatory means? >> i think that's what congress is trying to figure out. i don't know if they ever will. this has been a recurring theme. as david said, i don't know corzine was right, but he bet late and the problem is pot that he bet wrong, the problem is whose money was it that he bet on. and whether or not congress can go ahead and get the ftc to regulate better. aim not a big believe their it can be regulated better, but bottom line is that you should not be allowed to bet with other people's hone. madoff, et cetera, et cetera. and the regulators are not catching on. >> we know we're not supposed to do it, but we continue to do. thank you so much, richard, for

joining us here. coming up next, research in motion is due to report full year earnings after the bell. we'll discuss the outlook for the troubled blackberry maker and look ahead to the trading day on wall street.

spanish workers take to the street as unioning challenge the government. protests come ahead of the release of the budget scheduled for tomorrow. at the same time, keep your eyes on the spanish debt yields. stocks hitting a session low. spanish bond yields hitting a session high, heading back up to take 555 that we head towards the end of last week and we couldn't get any kind of a

momentum going, so we'll keep our eyes on that. meantime here in the u.s., fourth quarter gdp is out at 8:30. also at 8:30, weekly jobless claims expected to rise by 2,000 to a total of 350,000. and four fed officials are speaking throughout the day. richmond fed president jeffrey lacquer, dennis lockhart and ben bernanke giving his final lecture to college students as well as philly fed president. best buy reports before the opening bell. and after the close, research in motion. and still with us of course scott richter to talk about the day ahead on wall street. let's talk about some of the results that we're expecting as we are closing out the quarter here. it has been a strong quarter. what do you expect to see for research in motion this

afternoon. >> we don't koufr it, so i really don't have a comment on it. >> certainly you can speak to the jobless claims. folks will be looking at these numbers ahead of next friday's monthly jobless reports to see if we're continuing the slow grind down. your thoughts on that. >> yes, i mean,fully day week to week may be up or down, but clearly the trend is down to low level which was is good for the economy. it supports the job pick up and consumer confidence peck uick u well. >> do you agree with that and how supportive is it going to be for equity prices right now? >> well, i think the jobless numbers are improving. i wouldn't be too excited in the early part of this year only because you do have seasonal factor, seasonal adjustments made to the numbers which get taken off in the second and third quarter. so don't be too excited now,

also don't be 00 panicked when those same numbers come back out in the second and third quarter. but that's been the sticking point for bernanke, he said, listen, we'll continue to keep zero interest rate policy. on the right past, but not moving at a past enough pace. good has how >> has housing bottomed or not? >> no. >> all right. our time has expired. david and scott, thank you so much to joining us. that wraps it up for "worldwide exchange." sigh. >> and thanks for watching. coming up next, "squawk box" with joe, becky and andrew. all the crew. whatever happen, have a profitable day.

supreme question, is the health care law about to be struck dub by the highest court in the land? euro crisis, major european organization says that the eurozone is lagging behind in the shaky g-7 recovery. and the race to the finish. into trading days left has been a blockbuster first quarter. it's thursday, march 29th, 2012, and "squawk box" begins right now. welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick aloit