stocks, x apple. >> some of the states are close toa anyway. have a great week, good luck tonight. and we're sitting flat for the nasdaq, volume has been low, but in terms of percentage gains, it has been good. closing bell is next. >> welcome to the closing bell. >> the party has started, happy friday and it's the last day we're going to have to work because we're all winning the megamillions tonight. the stocks are holding on to modest gains in the final hour, even though the s&p is coming off a three-day losing streak, the index is still up 12% in this three-month period. coming up in the next hour, we're going to see how you

profit in the second -- with the dow up 66 points, off the highs we set just a moment ago of 13,212. moving on, the nasdaq is, percentage wise, virtually unchanged, it has been and the s&p 500 index. up almost six points. >> look at today's big movies. companies have sent alerts to banks about a breach at a major processing firm. we're going to have the latest developments later in the program. >> also today we have another big story that's capturing the imagination of americans across the country, have you heard about the megamillions lottery yet? the jackpot is up to 6$640

milli million. this is an example of the craze over the megamillions lottery, one cafe sold $137 worth of tickets to one buyer. it doesn't increase your chances of winning by that much. >> because there's so many people playing. we want to get your plan on what you would do if you won the megamillions. one guy down here told mary thompson that he would buy a bigger house for his sister-in-law, really far away. >> he would help her move farther away. >> that was the best one they heard. but everyone's been chatting about it. they're talking about strathy, do you buy them all at one place. >> it's a combination of all the people that i sit with in my

pod, and our producers, margaret popper, jessie bergman. >> we will miss all of you. >> let's get back to the market. >> it's put everybody in such a super good mood, i don't want to be around tomorrow when none of us wins. >> let's get to the outlook for the second quarter. can the markets make q-2 one for the books or could the crisis rear its ugly head once again? treasury closing down for the second straight month. today's closing bell exchange, mary thompson is here with all of today's market action, and joe santelli joining us from chicago. >> some people are saying we're going to see a little jump. really we saw the day before, it's been a bit of a trend, you might see some interaction, but it's been a pretty smooth end to the quarter here. >> rick, the yield, it had a

pretty sloppy auction, two of the three. weren't as well received as they were the previous month, right? >> that's absolutely correct, but what's really fascinating, if we could show an intraday chart of tens and 30s, we have shown a very, very slim light volume selloff in the last day of the quarter. and as we sit right now, you have a higher yield on the 30-year bond at $10.34, it's still six, seven basis points above where it's low yield trade was just a number of hours ago. >> we would have a period of time where it would be clear there would be an inverse relationship, as for example, if you saw a bond selloff like that, you would see stocks go appreciably higher. i think we're all buying into the idea that the retailer is not in this market. when you sell a safe haven like

a treasury, it's going into cash. >> i think that plays to one of the things that i know, they're very rowdy today. that places one of the themes of the second quarter. it's got this great first quarter. there is still concerns, you've got slowing growth in china, we have missed in europe. how does the u.s. stand within these two -- to the two economies slowing down? does it manage to -- and if not for those fears that mary rightly brings up, they would be higher now. >> it's a great point that the asset allocation trait is a figment of many's imagination, and you're exactly right, it's not about what goes in and out of treasuries ending up in equities. i think treasury rates are going to be a lot lower than a lot of the bears out there think. >> bill gross is under the opinion that the fed will signal

in april perhaps that they are funding a new round of quantitative easing. is that the sentiment on the floor there in chicago as well? >> they believe that ben bernanke and company are very committed to try to keep their grasp on interest rates, but i think it's based on where the trades go and i haven't seen the selloff that occurred on the day of the last fed meeting. >> the big rally that we did see in stocks this quarter, particularly in financials, what are we talking about? no systemic risk, at least eliminated in america, that's high we see bank of america 70% in the last quarter. >> the relief from the stress test, but before that you saw a lot of people moving money out of the european banks, moving to the u.s. banks it's a play on the stronger u.s. economy than what we're seeing in europe as well.

>> and also the possibility there's that qe-3 out there now as well? >> yes. >> that's just a relief rally. >> part of a relief rally, but some were saying we're out of the european banks, let's move them here, it's a value play too, they look very cheap, the question is can they sustain that's going into the rest of the year, at this point we need to see some better earnings from them. is it just going to be reserve releases? because a low interest rate environment, they had the vac that some of their older bonds, were higher yielding, it's not the case anymore, it's pressure on their interest margin, so you have a number of factors going in there. >> what's the back in the currency market, do we see a lower dollar if the fed does bring in more quantitative

easing, or if europe still continues to stumble, you're going continue to see the euro go to the upside, right? >> i think it's the latter, i don't think it's an overemfa situation. i don't think no matter what happens in europe is going give as much power to the fx trades as it does to the financial status of the euro. i'm not a very dollar bullish person. just look at the prices paid in the chicago pmi? >> thank you folks, rick, mary, it's been a pleasure to work with you. >> she's not coming to work after she wins the megamillions. >> those big declines in some of these credit card companies. >> i'm picking the numbers with my eyes close, it's unclear how we'll actually do, we'll talk about those big increases mastercard and visa, just

lightly into the red, coming off the lows of the session, that blame getting deflected for that security breach over to global payments. they said their data systems were compromised by a third party and global payments is now said to be the company behind that breach, compromising possibly millions of accounts. now shareholders are starting to sue and that down more than 9% at this point on the session. but their share holders are filing a lawsuit and it's unclear what they will actually say, we have no statement yet from global statements. let's take a look at liz claiborne, private equity firms have held talks with the company. liz is said to have wanted $20 a share, but you can see with the stock up better than 16%, it's only been trading at $13.75 that's what the market says it's work. the auction is ongoing and we'll have to see if $20 is a

tenable -- the biggest s&p mover today. consumers still heading for bargains, that's leading family dollar stock up better than 5%. but it's also going to start selling cigarettes. we'll see how they do with that. >> heading toward the close by 50 minutes here, just off the highs for the major averages here, as we close the books on the first quarter. >> we're going to show you which companies are ready to cash in on this renaissance. plus the hmo index, that's at a record high right now, can the health insurers keep their portfolio healthy in the second quarter. one fund manager weighs that issue coming up. >> nearly everybody has lotto atmosphere amid this record megamillions jackpot. we're going to tell you whether you're better off taking the lump sum or the annuity if you hit the jackpot. plus which state do you think

charges the most tax for lottery winnings? we'll have the answer later in the show. and as we head to the break, here's the s&p 500 heat map for the strongest first quarter. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. >> also ahead a look at housing and consumer sentiment. that's coming up right here on the closing bell. [ male announcer ] any technology not moving forward

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> . >> we have 45 minutes to go in today's trading session. time now for a quick market stat check. they are near session highs, we're not going out like a lam here. one -- right now the dow jones industrial average is higher by

13 points. technology has been among the big sector winners this quarter. here's a snapshot of some of the names that are the biggest names there. sales force.com, 52%, apple higher by 48%, and lsi are all rising at least 45% quarter to date. >> bank of america, more than 70% for the quarter. >> amazing. >> and what else is growing, u.s. manufacturing is making a come back after declining over the past six decades. the industry is in the early stages of what could be a long-term renaissance which we're going to talk about. manufacturing represents only about 12% of our compauntry's g but it has been growing, reaching 27 billi$27 billion in.

what is behind the revival? joining us is ron smith, he's chief investment strategist at riverfront investment group. neil, why the revival now? >> it's basically a function of several factors, you have labor cost containment or a manufacturing base, it stimulates import institutions. we have energy renaissance. that's lowering immy -- if you're a company and you're looking across the globe and you want to invest in a developed economy to produce things, the u.s. is looking pretty good right now. >> ron, does the renaissance, the givening of this renaissance, make you want to invest in that sector right now. >> absolutely it duds. first i've got to say, if i win the megamillions, i'll fly to new york and take you and michelle out to dinner.

>> we're on. >> i have been fascinated by this for a while. i credit neil for doing the great work. the first one who turned me on is nancy lesai who's been following it for a why. if you want to look at the developed world t u.s. is far and away leading productivity and this last downturn and the recovery in margins that has happened in the u.s. has not happened in the rest of the world and so absolutely, firms are looking to come here. if you start at the macro level, it's bullish for the dollar, and then there are some microaspects that you can play as well. >> one thing that contributed a lot to the decline of manufacturing in this country over the years was the cost structure. relatively speaking it was cheaper to manufacture overseas.

you're saying it's becoming more attractive in this country? >> think about what's going on in china, wages are running 15%, 16% year over year. there's only a few places in the world that can give them the capital goods they need to improve productivity and that's what the united states specializes in, very high value added durable equipment. we specialize in manufacturing. >> why do you think this will be the beginning of a long-term renaissance? >> this is the typical outsourcing conversation. it seems to me that this insourcing phenomenon can go on for just as long. >> let's make it meaningful for investors. >> you think manufacturing

revival, are there any manufacturing starts, really the big ones are not really a play on that, you have i think got to go smaller down, we in our portfolios only own a couple of names, and px which is involved in power and power transformation, you're going to get a lot more build up around plants. we also own a company called anexter. so you can find family manufacturing companies. also from the oil boom happening, the spillover effect on local businesses. i would say the kind of place where is your manufacturing worker goes to spend their dollars is going to be a big beneficiary. >> gentlemen, thank you, neil, nice to see you, rod, dinner tomorrow night at the four seasons. see you later. >> and for manufacturing to toy

making. we have at least one toy maker that gets at least 80% of its revenue from the u.s., more than any of its rivals. we'll have details coming up next hour here on "the closing bell." right now twe're going to get te action trade on how you can get in on the fastest growing fast food stock in the second quarter. >> we're going to break down the charts and talk to a technical analyst and chargt numbers next. >> and how each number of the dow has fared this quarter. [ donovan ] i hit a wall.

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welcome back, i'm sharon epperson, even with the $4 drop in oil prices, bread is up 14%, but look at gasoline futures, up nearly 30% in three months. you know this because you're paying at least 20 cents more than you did three months ago. and look at the natural gas, the flip side, down almost 30% for the quarter? why aren't we using more natural gas. natural gas shy of the $2 mark. >> a little more than 30 minutes left to go in the session, and

also in the quarter which is right now looks like it's going to be the best quarter for the major averages in 14 years. so pretty incredible. what are the charts telling us about what the next quarter is going to hold for the nasdaq. you think the dow is overbought. bring up the dow and tell us why you think that is. >> this is the daily chart of the dow jones 30, back to about the middle of last year, we also got the 200-day moving average. this is a great run, this is up about 30% for the quarter. i think that's too far, too fast. we're also extended, we're stretched well above the 200-day moving average. therefore i am looking for a period of reverse. >> ditto for the nasdaq? >> yes, now taking a look at the dow, in terms of targets. if we break support in terms of 750. >> let's talk about support on

the dow. >> we have got the dow on, we got supported by 12,750. we take that out, we're probably going to go back to 12,000. >> now the nasdaq, ditto. >> let's look at the nasdaq, this one has also had a great run. this is a weekly chart back about three years. the short-term trend is up. about 35% since those october lows, therefore it's extended as well. in terms of targets, we see a weekly close below 28.73. that's about 20% below the reign highs. >> the bottom line, what's more overbought at this point, the dow or the nasdaq. >> the nasdaq is the more overbought. look at apple gains. >> clarence gabriel, thank you so much for coming in. the dow and the nasdaq as we come in to q-2. >> we're heading to the last

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>> with just about 30 minutes to go in the last trading day of the month, the quarter, all is good. we have the markets higher, the dow's up just about 64 points

holding on to some modest gains. what we want to focus on now is the sector of the week. take a look at the s&p health care sector. outperforming the s&p which is up about .8% this week. this sector is up 2.75%. this stock is performing nicely mostly because of the arguments heard before the supreme court. there's word that most of this legislation will be thrown out. these stocks were up four out of the five day this is week. michelle and bill, back to you. >> thank you very much, it is as you pointed out, been a great quarter for the bulls, for the equity market. here's a quarter to date chart of the s&p 500 index. early up about 12% at around

14.09. the average year-end forecast according to "the wall street journal" market data group is 13.62. one of our next guests, tom lee ceo of jp morgan, his price is 14.to. then there's david dars, chief investment strategy at morgan, stanley, smith and barney. his price is 11.7. >> so we'll have them duke it out. >> david darst why are you so dour? >> there's a fiscal pothole that the u.s. is facing next year, you're talking about $523 billion of additional taxes, the payroll holiday, if they're not extended. we are less sanguine than thomas

is, whose work we love and admire, by the way. it's earnings driven, michelle and bill. we're looking at earnings to be only $103 next year and $100 next year. you put a decent multiple at the end of this year, we're below where we are in the market. >> david is not going to buy a lottery ticket for sure. you're more optimistic, david, why? >> we're constructive because in a cycle year, we think this is a secular bull market, one that the legs are driven by a recovery in housing, which is going to add to gdp growth and the second runner up is low cost natural gas, i think it's providing a huge advantage to u.s. industry. >> but the housing data looks kind of soft, though. and that's something that ben bernanke is watching very carefully. and he obviously sent a signal this week that they're looking

at possibility of more kw quantitative easing. >> you've got house information pent up. 13 million adults in the last five years, only 4 million house holds formed, you've got a lot of people living in basements. but you're seeing banks being tougher on lending. but david had mentioned this, is this fiscal drag, in '93, in '72 and in '66, marginal tax increases went up 6 basis growth. there was real positive gdp growth. >> so the bulk of the taxes doesn't worry as much? >> i think it's a drag, but not as major as you are thinking. >> each time it's effect is a

little bit less and less. alberto won the 2010 tour de france. and he was stripped of his title for doping. qe-3 is doping. secondly you need political dissatisfaction with the status quo, which we have nod had. and thirdly, you need structural reform which we have not had. we think it's a cyclical bull market, not a second bull market. >> i think the simplest thing i can point to is that we know credit markets are -- 14 pe, 7% yield. there's only one other time in history that the s&p p.e. was below the high yield market.

in other words we should be a 20% s&p market. >> the high yield market really reflect default risk so about half of that high yield is -- >> you said credit markets are stronger than equity markets. in other words when the bond market is sending signals, they're usually doing it way before the stock market. the bond market is selling off like crazy, doesn't that tell you that we're going to see higher interest rates, stronger economy. >> great point, michelle, that when you're down in this 2 to 2.5 range which is where we still are, the rules change. they go from 5 down to 3 is a good thing for the stock market. to go from 3% to 5% in interest rates is a bad thing for p.e.s.

the world is upside down. it's topsy turvy. that was the song that the u.s. marines listened to, the world is upside down. the world is upside down right now. the rules don't apply right now. >> you're not going to tell us it's different this time? >> no, this is the way it always responds, we do like the fact that yields are starting to come up and we do, i think thomas we agree that you want to be careful with the bonds. go with high grade corporates, not with u.s. treasuries, michelle, they're very overpriced to us. >> two of our favorites, they can never agree, but we're glad you're both here. we got about 24 minutes before the closing bell, the dow jones industrial average is higher by 21 points and the s&p is up by 2 .5. >> can the green back make a come back in the next quarter. >> and should you take the lump

sum or the annual annuity. austin cools by says you can get an e tra 90 billion. plus which state do you think charges the most tax and lottery winnings? >> send us a tweet on what you would do with the money if you won. >> stay tuned, much more closing bell after this. >> which stock outperform second down others in the first quarter. advanced microdevices, jabil circuit or the jds glin face. pacific life offers life insurance, annuities for lifetime income, mutual funds and retirement solutions. ask a financial professional about how pacific life's

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just before the break as part of the dividend, we asked which stock outperformed the others in the first quarter. advanced microdevices, jabil circuit or jds unit phase. now the payoff, advanced microdevices which shot up about 50%. >> closing bell i'm courtney

reagan, the nasdaq up just slightly, but up 18% for the quarter. one of the biggest winners on the nasdaq composite is rim, despite the fact that the company afforded the first quarter loss since 2005, but it's the ceo comments about possibly putting up rim for sale if that happens to be a good strategic opportunity. take a look at shares of micron, these shares are lower. the biggest shares in the s&p 500. after it settles a $2 million lawsuit with oracle. >> there's about 19 minutes left before the closing bell. last day of the quarter, time now for a quick market check on the nasdaq. the nasdaq jumping on the break even line. coincidental coincidentally, it has risen and fallen by as many as 16 points

today. it has gone up by 19%, that is the best quarter since 2009. check out the dboe volatility index, it has lost about a third of its value since the opening bell. >> it's been quite a ride for the major averages in the equity market. not so for the dollar. the green back has seen a rise of 2.5%. is it ready for a come back? would that be the trade to go long with the dollar? let's talk to paul, what do you think, long dollar or not? i guess it depends on the fed to some degree. >> you can stop with what the payroll is going to give us next friday. we know that we have got a fairly conservative fed chairman. we saw conservatism going into that, and now we got a

relatively dovish chairman again. if he would call the question by relatively strong payrolls next friday, i think the stocks will rally, not necessarily against the euro, but i more like the yen. >> and how much of the debt situation in europe is going to play into this as well? you're shying away from the euro/dollar, but that's been very much a focus of the first quarter. >> $800 billion, some any it's not enough. but my view it's a lot to disagree with. i don't think she would have done that without the guard giving her assurances that the i med will probably steer apart. so i think that the next step here is to watch what -- in front of the april meeting of the imf in washington, this could be mildly positive for england.

it could be relatively good for the euro. >> a chicken and egg thing. if they would raise the fire wall, she could raise more money to the imf. >> and geithner has been very vocal on that subject. >> paul, good to see you, have a good weekend. >> you too. >> we got about 16, 15 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average is very close to flat. mcdonald's one of the few dow stocks in the red this quarter, one option investment trader says investors are better off eating up the stocks of another restaurant giant. >> it's been a big quarter for the banks and a big day for news of credit card companies. we'll put that stock on your radar after the break. when the fed starts tightening, you'll see a week of turmoil in the markets, but

history says that's not where the bull market ends. >> david's product vision is accomplish things that no other company can match. >> what was apple's response to the findings? >> they will research the bar for working conditions in the electronic sector. >> cnbc, capitalize on it.

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thank you, and back on the floor of the new york stock exchange, in front of the post of the new york markets. in the dang dang, ticker symbol dang, it aims to be the amazon.com of china and in its latest endeavor, it's forming a strategic alliance to go online to sell electrical appliances. now a few days ago, oppenheimer

upgraded dangdang to outperform. it also said that it receives multiple expansion for dangdang in the next couple of months. dangdang stock has fallen more than 60% in the past year. so it's got its work cut out for it on the market trail. >> everybody on the floor is talking about the megamillions lotto here. what are you going to do if you win tonight? when you win tonight, what are you going to do with the money? >> i hope you're right on that note. >> i would take care of my family and my close friends and i would donate a good amount of the money to charity. >> and lots of dangdang too i guess, right? >> that would be good at this point. >> a lot of dreaming been going on the last few days on the floor. >> the internet b to b sector

has really been in motion. in the last two weeks we have seen a billion dollar deal in number two b to b companies. >> good luck with the lottery tonight. >> thank you. >> good luck to you with the lot toe. they may not be stealing the headlines today but there are some under the radar stocks that are making big moves, including aig. >> it's been a banner quarter for aig which you were talking about before the break. it's up nearly 3%, but to a very key level and that's above 30 bucks, trading at $30.81 that means that last year's ipo is in the money and it indicates the company is very stabilized even if it reduced the u.s. treasury stake earlier in the month. great quarter for aig. let's move on to lincoln national. up more than 2%. saying it favors insurers over

the property casualty sector. that's responsible for the stronger move. and on the pnc side, xl group up about 2.5%. the company remains the best access capital story among all interviews. >> we're just moments away from the close of the first quarter, our next guest taking a look at a stock that's seen a 20% rally so far in 2012, and if you've still got an appetite for this name, you still have a chance to get in. >> the appetite that i'm talking about the yum! brands. up about 20% like you mentioned. why is it doing that? it's been all about china. china same-store sales up about 20% year over year so the stock has basically traded in line

with china. this is a country that started to become more consumer discretionary. the u.s. side, same store sales up only 1%. but with earnings around the corner, i'm playing china. 6 it's all about that. i'm going to look at april options here, selling the april 7 put. if the stock trades below 70, i would be obligated to purchase the stock at $70 but i would be able to collect 1.$45. a great way to play yum! to the upside. >> be sure to catch more options tonight. coming up next, we're going to be right back with the closing countdown. and nen after the bell, can the health care sector continue to deliver year on year portfolio

from the health care sector. here's how the major averages are trading as we head to the close. nasdaq now in negative territory, we finish out with a bang here, we get all three major averages, you got to stay tuned, we are first in business worldwide. [ male announcer ] the next generation of lexus cannot be contained. [ clang ]

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okay, four minutes left before the closing bell for the closing countdown. here's a fun little fact that you can use at your next cocktail party. the s&p 500 was up for the whole year when it was at least up 4% in the first quarter. and the nasdaq right now is on pace for its seventh consecutive positive week. equities are the place to be in the first quarter. the nasdaq was the place to be in the first quarter. a gain of 18, almost 19%, far outdistancing the s&p, and the dow, thas up8%. where did you not want to be

this time around? this is the price of the ten-year note and up 3% for the quarter. another place that was struggling a bit. it was among the strongest in the first part of this quarter, but oil did taper off at the end of february, but for the whole month of march it struggled. and the same thing for gold, it was pretty strong at the first part of the year, and it peaked in february. last year, of course, gold was acting more like a risk on business. where did you make money in the equities in the first quarter, technology by far was the big gainer there. same thing with the financials, with a big snap back. they divide the s&p 500 into ten

sectors. health care consumer staples. energy, telecom and utilities interestingly, last year's best performer is this quarter's worst performer. let me bring in david darst. i know that you're not real happy about the equity market right now, where would you put money to work in the second quarter? >> i think you can rotate and pick up some dividend, income, bill, you can look at some of these consumer staples stocks, these multinationals na sell cheaply in this market. i would say one note that you really gave us great perspective for the first quarter. one note that i would add to that china's up for the first quarter, only 2.6%. they have been down ten of the last 12 days. april tends to be the second best month of the year. in election year -- >> for equities? >> for equities. april it was up 6.5%, the last

50 aprils, the market's been up 43 times, it's been down 19. so it can be down. also when a market, when you have a first quarter that's up over 10%. >> as we do. >> 19 of the last 20 times, the next quarter is flat to up. so don't fight this, but rent it and be prepared to move and rotate. but watch china, watch those ten-year treasury interest rates as you just pointed out and oil. if they release from the strategic reserves, that would put downward pressure, make people feel better. >> you're not going to get gasoline prices down until you increase refining capacity in the u.s. >> that's going to take some time. >> but technology, that was the best performer there there. >> we think that growth story of apple is there. qualcomm is there, microsoft is there, so stay with the